Hello everyone
and Welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always
Stan McCune realtor right here in Greenville
South Carolina
and you can find all of my contact info in the show
notes if you need to reach out to me for any of
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Easter
it was Easter
it was 4:20 for those that celebrate
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talking to multiple different people
over the course of that holiday
and that's that's just the way it is
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from the top of mountains
in Yosemite's
in Yosemite as I've done before
so anyway I
I enjoy what I do so these are not complaints
these are just me sharing with you guys that
that I don't mind reaching
and people reaching out to me at weird times
if I can't get back with you
I just won't that's just the reality but I
I usually will text people and say hey
I'm not gonna be available for
you know for a couple of hours here
can you hang tight those sorts of things
but yeah thank you guys for for listening
thank you to all of you in
in recent weeks who have reached out
let me know that you're
that you're watching or that you're listening
again
I would appreciate if you guys could
leave some good feedback on the show
to get it out to as many people as possible
but today we're going to be talking about
the market stats that we now have
for the month of March
as
as you guys know whoops
oh am I sharing the right thing here
actually yeah
I am okay as you guys know sorry
there was a
there was a moment there where I thought I was
sharing the wrong thing
for this for this podcast
and that wouldn't be good
if I shared with you guys something personal
on my computer
which I have a lot of personal stuff on my computer
obviously as most people
but but here we go
I've got the the G J R
the Great Agreement Association Realtors market stats
obviously
we're at the end of April or towards the end of April
depending on when you're listening to this
these market stats usually get published
around the middle of the month
is pretty standard
they were not published in time for me to go over them
last week but now I have them for this week
and there is some interesting information in this
and really right off the bat
we're getting one of the most interesting things
which is new listings data came in hot
hot
hot for the month of March we had 2,539 new listings
now
let me see let me compare to last month
how revise the new listing
cause this date always gets revised okay
so February got revised actually up so February
when we went over the February new listings data
it was 1953 new listings
that just got revised up to 1973
and so I talked to you guys about how
revisions are always made to these numbers
some usually revisions are downward
and so that's what I wanted to check here
is there a possibility that this March
data is going to be downwardly revised
unlikely February got revised up
so here's what we have 2,539 new listings
if you're looking at the graph
that is by far the record
I mean not even close
we've never even come close to 25
we had a month in 2022
right before mortgage rates really
really went crazy
in terms of going up
that a bunch of people listed their homes for sale
because they knew oh crap
the market shifting
I better get in now before the complete shift happens
and home value starts to stall
or whatever the case may be
we had 1 month back in 2022
where we got to roughly 24 ish hundred
and we just 24 new listings
and that was in the middle of the summer
we just completely completely blew past that 20
539 new listings that is a 24% increase year over year
versus the 2,048 that we had in March of 2024
which was a pretty normal
like that's a pretty normal number for March
March of the
of the prior year had 1,960
so for us to be in the 2500s
that is
a very unusual trend so what's happening there
what's happening there is people are
are being forced to move it's finally happening
we're seeing forced sellers
they're relocating they've been holding off long enough
they're getting jobs elsewhere
they're having reasons why they're having to move
and they
they finally have no other choice
they have to list their home for sale
and
and and so this is what's happening
you
you have situations where there's
now families that have been
living in three bedroom homes
they've got four kids
and and they're just
they just can't do it anymore
they just can't they just need that
that fourth or fifth bedroom
they're being forced to to sell the three bedroom home
and move up and purchase the next
the the next size home
so that's what I think is happening this data
but this is
you know from a buyer standpoint
if you're a buyer and you're just like
I'm not seeing anything on the market right now
that's a problem okay
that we
we need to have a little come to Jesus moment here
because if you're not seeing anything
on the market right now
when new listings are coming on the market
a lot we
we've now had two out of the past four months
where we've had over 20% year on year listings
increases alright
December was also 23.7% increase
now we had a decrease in January of a
minus one point four % but February was up 3.9%
and now March is the highest ever
that we've ever had in the history of Greenville okay
so
we need to have a conversation
if you're
if you're just not seeing what you're looking for
either
what you're looking for
it might not exist
or it's possible that you're just extremely selective
and there's nothing wrong with
that I actually prefer very selective clients
over clients that are just like
I can have I can live in anything
it's it's a lot harder to find anything
than it is to find something very
very specific believe it or not
because nobody actually wants anything
like
everyone does have a specific criteria in their head
when you get down to it
it's just some people understand their criteria better
so if you're like I can live in anything
as long as below this price point
you actually haven't done enough
thinking about what you're looking for
because nobody I don't know anybody
that's willing to just live in anything
and but I do get people sometimes that will talk to me
they're just like you know what
at my price point beggars can't be choosers
I'm willing to accept anything
and it's just like
no we need a little
we need to refine this a little bit more
otherwise it's gonna be really challenging
for me to help you as your buyers agent
but of course
the other possibility is that as I've already said
there just might not be on the market
what you're looking for just might not exist
so I I'm not saying 100% if you've been looking
you can't find anything
that what you're looking for doesn't exist
but we do need to start thinking about that
as we go into these summer months
when inventory starts to increase in our market
you should be seeing things that are interesting to you
and if you're not
then then you might need to
to reconsider your
your search criteria and your buy box
pending sales
this is one of the numbers that always gets revised
so let's look back at February February
I thought we might have a
lot bigger of a drop off than we ended up having
in pending sales
after revisions it really wasn't that big of a drop off
it's only a 1% decrease year on year
so February got revised to 1,359 pending sales
only a 1% decrease
versus the 1,373 pending sales that we had in February
of 24
January also got revised
up a little bit on the pending sales
which is interesting
as I was going back and looking at this
so originally we thought January was down 9.2%
and that was something that we talked about
that we talked about
when we went over these pending
these pending sales numbers before
but
but that got revised up to
the point where it was only a 1.5%
decrease year on year for pending sales in January
so we have had January
February two straight months of negative pending sales
but both very
very close minus one % minus one point five % March
what is looking like to me
is that it may end up being somewhat in line with that
so these pendings tend to get revised by about 500
so currently March is sitting at 952 pendings
that's gonna get revised upward
so probably in the 1450 to 15 range
March of last year was 1544
so
I'm still expecting there to be a third straight month
a pending sales declines what I don't know though
is if February gets tweaked again
February could actually go into the positives
so long story short pending sales are
really staying
pretty comparable right now to what they were
last year at this time
however
close sales are increasing and this is something we've
we've talked about now for a few episodes
so I'm I'm not gonna go into a ton of detail here
in terms of of why it's happening
the close sales
were very strong for the month of March
1,560 close sales that's a 12.7% increase
year over year
and and so March of 24 was 1,384
that's that's really really good right
we might still be seeing some
some
of the the backlog from Helene
still showing up in the data a little bit
but by now we should mostly be out of that
I still have one client
impacted indirectly by Helene
and so for the most part
I think we've got Helene
that Hurricane out of our system
and now what we're just seeing is more people that
are going under contract are actually closing
that's good right
I've been talking about how buyers are picky right now
that pickiness is reflected
oftentimes in contracts falling through
at times when they wouldn't right
during Covid when the market was crazy
rates were two and a/2 percent
or whatever the case may be
buyers were not backing out
because it was so hard to get a home under contract
once you got under contract
you stayed under contract
I mean you did whatever you needed to
it's a standard contract
buyers are waving all contingencies basically
for a stretch there
the market completely flipped
and it became this market where buyers were
backing out over everything
well we're starting to see it normalize a little bit
right we're starting to see more
meeting of the mind between buyers and sellers
that were finally
getting some of these homes to closing
it also required sellers to
to adapt to the market too right
because when we had like three years
where sellers could just put a home on the market
didn't matter what they do
it didn't matter if they deep clean
it didn't matter if they did any improvements
they could have bought it six years ago for 300,000
and now it's worth 340,000
sorry six months ago for 300,000
didn't do anything to it now it's worth 340,000
because the markets are appreciating by
you know 2% every month
and this was the sort
of stuff that people got used to for like 3 years
well it took sellers a while to figure out oh
I need to actually like improve my house
my house is and
and I need to make my house marketable right
that's been a a big thing
because buyers have gotten
so much more picky in terms of just nitpicking
every little thing about a house well
that's taken sours and and
and this is what happens in markets
it took sours a while to adapt to that
that's a big change right
and when to in real estate
a a year is an eternity
but 3 years of a norm like
the entire market kind of settled into it
being this insane sellers market
it takes a while to to adapt to that so here we are
really three years removed from that crazy
almost three years removed from that crazy
Celsius market
and we're finally seeing some stability showing up in
in some of our data here
crazy days on market until sale okay
this is one that I was I'm
I'm very interested in seeing what happens right
because what I've been looking at is
are we going to see normal seasonality or if
if we're entering into some new
sort of market
where maybe we're completely shifting to a major
major buyers market
days on market would ignore seasonality
and just start to increase right
would start to take longer
to sell homes what it appears is that we are
experiencing normal seasonality
so you can see in a normal year
days on market typically peaks
somewhere between november
of
of the year prior into maybe march of the current year
and then it starts to go back down
we have tons and tons of data that shows this
and
this even includes to a certain extent
the pandemic years as well
this is something now
it was a little weird during the pandemic years
but you can still if you look closely enough
you can still see seasonality
during the pandemic years as well
and so it looks like at the moment
like we are experiencing
normal seasonality March days on market are at
went to 58
here's where I'm going to compare it month on month
right cause year on year it went up right
days on market has been going up
year on year for quite some time now
7.4% increase year on year
March of last year was 54 days on market
which is basically your way of thinking
the way of thinking that
from the time you list a home
until it goes under contract right
54 days last year March
58 days
March of this year
with regard to comparing it month on month last month
February was 62 days let me see if that was revised
no that
that was not revised
so 62 days in February that's come down to 58
that's what we would expect
we would now expect if normal seasonal trends occur
we would expect days on market to start going down
for the next several months right
homes should be selling more quickly during the
during the summer months versus the winter months okay
so at the moment that indicator also tells me okay
we're we're not experiencing anything super duper crazy
or anything super duper weird just yet
now everything is contingent okay
on the broader economy
and there's a lot of concerns that I have
with the broader economy right now
I have a lot of people chirping at me on social media
because I will simply share my opinions on
on on Facebook
if you wanna see me really unhinged
follow me on X or or Twitter
whatever it's called these days
mostly I talk about sports on there
but on Twitter I will or on Facebook I'll share
some of my thoughts on the economy
and political thoughts
which shouldn't be controversial
too long
didn't read version
I'm not really a fan of either party
I criticize each party individually
so depending on depending on who's in office
I get chirped by the opposite side usually right
cause I'm usually criticizing whichever party has
control of the government
cause I don't really identify with either of them
personally that's just me
so long story short
I've had
people chirping at me a lot about the
about the economy saying the economy is not that bad
the stock market isn't doing so terrible
if you look back historically
blah blah
blah blah blah
there's been rebounds
even today
as I'm recording it there was a
there was a little bit of a
of a rebound in
after some comments that it got leaked that
besant
made so I
I keep hearing this but
you gotta look way beyond the stocks
the economy is not just the stock market
and
and and so
you know what I'm looking at
I'm looking at the bond market
I'm looking at the unemployment rate
I'm looking at the price of gold
I'm looking at the
at the
US dollar currency and
and I'm looking at all these things
in contrast to other countries
as well and what I see
it does make me concerned
in fact the comment that Besant made today
to a private group
he said that the current trajectory is unsustainable
that doesn't sound so good right
so
he knows something that a lot of people are denying
right now which is that are
the current
trajectory of our economy is not sustainable
the question is whether he has control over that or not
and
and what's going to happen
I don't know I
I really don't know but I am prepared for the worst
okay there
there are there are some pretty
grim potential outcomes and we just need to
to not dwell on that but we need to be prepared for it
in my personal opinion all right
there's your there's your politics from stand for
for the day that's all I'm gonna say for the moment
medisales price
we finally reverse the trend after so many months of
of
year on year negatives
in terms of the median sales price
we finally now have two straight months
where we reverse the trend March
the median sales price
went up to 3:15 that was a
an increase from 3:10 which was March of 2024
now we're still quite a bit off from
the peak that we've had
but I believe if I'm not mistaken
yeah that is
that is the highest March print that we've ever had so
so again
very strong if you're if you're a seller
you like the looks of that right
this is we're you know
we're
we're starting to see that some of the seasonal trends
right because this is the time
this is that usually the time when it's
it's a better time to sell
during the spring and summer months
it's when the maxim number of buyers are out there
it's when the most aggressive buyers are out there
and
and you know
one thing we've been looking at is like okay
are how much of the
issues that we had at the end of last year
were related to Helene were related to the elections
were related to seasonality all coming together at once
that was something I'm
complained about multiple times on the show
and it does appear that those things were a factor
because now we're going back to seeing year on year
increases in the median sales price
which is the the preferred metric that I like to use
so we're at 3:15 if you wanna
if someone asks you what's our average sales price
tell them well
let's not talk about the average
the median is more accurate and it's 315,000
now if you want to still tell them the average
which has big swings right
because of
because
of sometimes we get you know a
a glut of million dollar homes that end up selling
or you know
we might get a glut of really cheap condos
we had one year that like
80 cheap condos
all sold within a few month period of time
that depressed
artificially depressed the average sales price
and so the average
because a lot of people don't realize this
the price point in the greater Greenville area
right now
that's experiencing the most increases in demand
is a $750,000 and above price point
that is the hottest price point right now
in the greater Greenville area
so the result of that is
that the averages are really skewed
because there's not a ton of homes
in Greenville at that price point
in contrast to
you know all of the other price points so we have
you know 500 homes that sell
you know for a million dollars in a month
that's gonna really skew this data right
because we just went over that the close sales
wait for it
the close sales for the month of March was 1,560
so if a third of those are million dollar homes
well that's going to
that's going to skew the averages here
but but the average ended up being
in case you're wondering the true average 386,430
which is a 4.7% increase over 3
69 in change of March a year ago these averages
the past 12 months we've only had one month
where the average sales price has
has actually gone down and oh my sorry
I don't know if my screen went away there for a second
I did something by accident
but the average sales price
has generally pretty consistently been going up
which you can see
based on the graph that I have in here
1% of list price received I'm gonna read this one
this is the percentage
found when dividing a property's
sales price by its most recent list price
then
taking the average for all properties sold in a given
month not accounting for seller concessions
this number went down point two %
so it went down to 98.4%
down from the 98.6% of March a year ago
not really drawing any major conclusions from this
right if you're a seller
you can expect to get roughly 98.4%
of what your home is listed for
after the appropriate price reductions have been made
right that's an important detail
because this only looks at the most recent list price
so you have to have your home price correctly
and then once it's price correctly
you'll get 98.4% although
you might have to make some sour concessions as well
okay
basically I'm not drawing major conclusions from this
because we've been hovering around 98%
really since 2016
with the exception of the pandemic years
so 98% give or take seven
will you
what if you wanna call it 97.5% to ninety eight
point five percent not gonna fault you
that is right in line with the norm
for the greater Greenville area
so I'm not drawing any major conclusions from that
it did go down a little bit year on year no big deal
some some of these metrics favor sellers
some buyers that one a little bit
favoring buyers a little bit more
Housing Affordability Index was flat year on year
98 is the housing affordability index
we like to see that 100 that means that the median
household can afford the median priced home
we're a little bit below that we're at 98 again
Greenville is a very mortgage rate sensitive market
and mortgage rates have been going back up
after you know after they went down a little bit
right around the elections
they've started to go back up
a lot of that is is related to
directly related to the Trump tariffs
and bond sell offs that have happened
that have then
indirectly caused mortgage rates to go up
it's a whole entangled mess in this economy
and this is one
this is just something we have to deal with
that the mortgage rates just came down a little bit
this housing affordability index would definitely
go go up to 100
so hopefully that will happen sooner than later
inventory of homes for sale
this is one that that often times gets revised
so for instance
February got revised down about 500 units
so February had an 18.6% increase year on year
in the inventory of homes
it went up to 4,249 homes up from 3,584 the year before
now currently they're saying March is at 5,300
which would be our highest
since like I don't know like 2014 basically
but that's gonna get revised down probably again
it'll probably get revised down to about 47
forty eight hundred
but that's still gonna be a huge increase
year on year from March of last year
which was 30 seven hundred so
we're again a lot of new listings coming on the market
and inventory
as result is is really increasing so
this is really something to watch because if we do see
if we see demand stall out in any meaningful way
while inventory is surging
we could see a big flip to a buyer's market
and and I've been saying it kind of is a buyer's market
but I'm talking about like a major
major flip to a buyer's market if these dynamics
get out of out of whack
so we have to see again
it won't feel like a buyer's market to many people
because
everything is so expensive right now
but that's a very real possibility
that we just have to keep tracking right
we have to keep looking at the data
seeing what's happening month supply of inventory
this is not going to be right right
because we're dividing inventory of homes
which I just said
it's gonna be revised by monthly pending sales
which I also said it's gonna be revised
so
it's currently saying our months of inventory is four
that's inaccurate
it said last month here
let me pull up last month on my other screen
last month February
it said it would be 3.6 months of inventory
that got revised down to 3.1
so now that we have four months of inventory
that'll probably
get revised down to maybe 3.5 months of inventory
that'll still be a big increase what
whatever it gets revised to
it'll be a big increase over last year
which is 2.8 months of inventory so again
we need to watch this
I think if we start to get close to four
and for sure if we get above four
we're gonna really feel
it's gonna really feel like a buyer's market
as long as we're in the mid to low threes
I think it's going to you know
the market is going to feel
roughly the way it has felt
which is kind of this
I keep saying it
it's like a stock market it's not a it
it it
it's
definitely leaning more towards buyers at the moment
but it's just a stock market
it's not a market where anyone's happy right
buyers aren't happy
sellers aren't happy nobody's happy fact
normally in buyers and markets
most buyers are not happy the
the buyers that are
are the ones that have a lot of money investors
they're the ones that get super happy
in a buyer's market
now I work with a lot of investors so
you know as far as my business is concerned
I'm gonna be operating
in whatever sort of a market we have
if it ends up becoming a virus market
so be it if it ends up reversing
and going back to a seller's market
so be it
there's opportunity in every market
and and
you know if you're interested in real estate
you need to position yourself accordingly
because things can change very
very rapidly yeah
the political landscape can change very
very rapidly
we already know this we've had tariffs go on and off
like 2,000 times already this year
and the market is going crazy every single time
something comes out that
about tariffs or about inflation or
or about whatever
now Trump is talking and I predicted this years ago
I predicted this years ago
go back I have an entire podcast on this
Trump's talking about ousting the Fed chair
Jay Powell or Jerome Powell
if you want to call him that
I talked about this years ago
what would happen
if the Federal Reserve became partisan
we are so very close to that
actually becoming a reality
and if that happened I'm gonna tell you right now very
very bad for the housing market okay
really bad for the economy as a whole
the economy would not respond well to that
and the downstream effect
that would be negative for the housing market
for a variety of reasons
so there's a lot if that happens
that's going to cause tremors
depending on what all happens with these tariffs
there's a lot of potential
and we just again
I'm not trying to make this overly political
this isn't about I hate Trump or I
hate this policy or whatever
I'm simply telling you guys what is true and
and what the possibilities are
depending on different outcomes that could happen
of course my phone is ringing at the moment
and I can't silence it
so I just hear it in my headphones
I don't think you guys can hear it
but but anyway
I appreciate you guys tuning in as always
you guys are great listeners
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thank you guys for listening
and we will talk again next time