[00:00:00] Announcer: Due to the themes of this podcast, listener discretion is advised. Lock your doors, close the blinds, change your passwords. This is Secrets and Spies.

Secrets and Spies is a podcast that dives into the world of espionage, terrorism, geopolitics, and intrigue. This podcast is produced and hosted by Chris Carr.

[00:00:37] Chris Carr: On today's podcast, I'm joined by author Candace Rondeaux, and we'll be looking at her new book, Putin Sledgehammer, which is the inside story of the Wagner Group, which is widely considered the world's most deadly militia and a key proxy of the Kremlin.

I hope you find this episode interesting and informative. Thank you for watching, and thank you for listening. Take care.

[00:00:57] Announcer: The opinions expressed by guests on secrets and spies do not necessarily represent those of the producers and sponsors of this podcast.

[00:01:22] Chris: Candace, welcome to the podcast. Good to have you on.

[00:01:25] Candace Rondeaux: It's great to be here. Thank you.

[00:01:27] Chris: Well, thank you for joining me. So you've written this really interesting book called Putin Sledgehammer. Before we sort of dive into some of the topics around that, I was wondering if you could just tell us a little bit about yourself and your background.

[00:01:37] Candace: Yeah. Um, I always struggle to answer this question, but I think Yes. Um, the easy answer is I'm, I'm Chicago, born and raised, um, uh, which. Actually adds a lot of weight to, uh, the narrative of the book in a way, because if you know anything about Chicago, it's kind of mafia country. Yeah. Um, that's still kind of true, uh, even today, but when I was a kid it was very true.

Um, and I was raised sort of at the tail end of the Cold War, so I'm a kind of a, a Cold War baby. Um, and I, um, spent a lot of my career documenting, you know, different types of crime and corruption. Um, most of that, the early period of my career, I was in the United States as a journalist, uh, working for different outfits, but most notoriously for the Washington Post.

Um, and eventually that sort of. Transformed me into some sort of war correspondent. Um, I spent five years living and working in Afghanistan and Pakistan, um, covering, uh, the kind of middle part of US engagement, um, in the region covering the war. Um, actually also looking at the back end of sort of Russians, Russia's history, uh, and the Soviet kind of legacy that was left there.

Um, and, and untangling all of that. And today I am a senior director for Future Front Lines, which is a program based at New America. It's a DC think tank, and we spend a lot of time thinking about. The intersection between technology and the changing character of war. And that's how I stumbled onto this story about the Wagner Group.

[00:03:15] Chris: Yeah, fantastic. Now, I have to ask, as you're from Chicago, are you a fan of the works of Michael Mann?

[00:03:21] Candace: Well, sure. Um, but there are others and I'm a bigger fan of

[00:03:26] Chris: Oh, who, who would you recommend?

[00:03:28] Candace: Oh gosh. I mean, oh, I mean, there are some amazing poets, you know, that's, that's probably not necessarily for your listeners, but Geraldine Books is probably one of the most famous ones.

[00:03:41] Chris: Yeah. Oh, fantastic. Fantastic. Yeah, and I've always loved the films of Michael Mann and stuff, and Thief. I always think of that opening sequence and stuff. And I was in Chicago a long time ago and saw some of the locations and also the fugitive's, another favorite Chicago film for me. The

[00:03:54] Candace: Fugitive is fantastic.

It's fantastic. Yeah. Yeah. And

[00:03:58] Chris: it's weird because when you walk around Chicago, you suddenly see how close a lot of the locations are in proximity to each other. Yeah. It's quite funny. Yeah. Especially

[00:04:05] Candace: in the loop, it's really tight. And, um, I mean there's also, gosh, what's that famous one I'm thinking of with the Al Capone?

Um, oh

[00:04:11] Chris: yes. The, the Ground Central Station. The Untouchables. Yes, the Untouchables great stuff. I mean,

[00:04:16] Candace: that is classic Chicago and, and it's also like classic sort of mafia world and mm-hmm. And all that's happening in that Union Station area and yeah, it's fabulous.

[00:04:25] Chris: Yeah. Yeah. Fantastic. Fantastic. Well, um, getting to your book, what inspired you to write this book and how did you go about sort researching such a sort of secretive and dangerous topic?

[00:04:34] Candace: Yeah, I, I think, um, you know, I started this journey. Um, from probably two different directions. Um, you know, I mentioned I was a Cold War baby. I was probably like the last generation, um, of Americans who, um, learned Russian in high school. That was when we sort of, when we thought, you know, that Russia was enemy number one.

And we were really obsessed with that. And, um, I mean, I didn't know I was just a kid, but, you know, we were kind of being trained to be future diplomats or future business folks or, uh, future spies. I'm not a spy. Um, but, um. So that, that sort of, that was always sort of part of my life since I was a very young kid.

Um, always really obsessed with Russian culture. And I actually, um, ultimately kind of took that obsession, uh, to university with me. And I ended up studying at St. Petersburg State University in 19 95, 19 96. So I'm dating myself a little bit. Um, you can't see. I've got a great colorist, actually. Uh,

[00:05:38] Chris: so I've got plenty of wisdom coming out of this beard at the moment.

It's all wisdom. It's all wisdom.

[00:05:47] Candace: Oh, but you know, at that time, uh, I mean, I don't, I don't know if you spent any time in Russia, but at that time in Russia. 19 95, 96, things were still pretty rocky. Um, you know, St. Petersburg a beautiful city, just, you know, historic. You got this gorgeous wedding cake buildings everywhere. Um, and at the same time, uh, it had echoes of Chicago.

It, you know, because it was going to this wrenching, uh. Economic meltdown that was still kind of climbing its way out. Um, the city was racked with crime. I mean, you know, not street crime, not that kind of crime, but, um, there was definitely a lot of sort of mafia vibes everywhere you went. Mm.

[00:06:30] Chris: Um,

[00:06:30] Candace: I remember being on Nevsky Prospect, which is kind of the main drag in St.

Petersburg. I probably like five, six months into my sort of last year of, of college. And, um, there was a, a drive by shooting at a hotel. You know, there was all kinds of stuff like that was sort of popping off. And, but there were other things, I mean, beautiful things about the city, but this was when, uh, Vladimir Putin.

Unbeknownst to me at the time was deputy mayor. And, um, and his road was converging with, you have Guinea Prgo who ended up being the, you know, the chief of, of the Wagner group. But a lot of stuff was happening then. I mean, I had such a strong memory of this city in transformation, a country and transformation.

Uh, and it left a huge imprint on me. It just never really went away. And then of course, uh, you know, the invasion of Crimea 2014, um, happened to converge with a career change for me. You know, I was moving, uh, into kind of deeper research on the nature of, um, proxy warfare, trying to understand, you know, why it was Russia and the United States and Qatar and all these countries were sending, um, you know, young boys, uh, you know, into Syria or into Libya, uh, to fight wars on their behalf.

I. And my fascination, you know, with all things Russia kind of converged on that road with, um, where the Arab Spring was beginning to also mix with the, so these geopolitics. Um, and I was, I was interested in the Wagner group because nobody could really put their finger on who was behind it. There was a lot of mystery, a lot of deniability, a lot of, um, confusing mythology.

And I, I, you know, I'm an investigative journalist sort of by training and I really wanted to dive in. Uh, and I just happened to have kind of the right mix of skills and background. Um, but I also had great partnerships. Um, and over the years I have been, uh, really graced with being able to access a lot of publicly available information that a lot of people don't have access to.

Mm-hmm. Um, some of that's social media, so Telegram and the Contact Ya. Um, which is kind of the Russian Facebook. But some of that is actually leaked documents. Um, about 130,000 leaked files from Yev Guinea, Ian's business, um, dating back to all the way back to 2012. And I was, you know, it's shocking what you can see when you kind of start to put the puzzle pieces together.

And for me it became an obsession. But I think the other part is that it, it also converges with, um, you know, trying to understand, you know, what is driving us to this moment that we find ourselves in, where you have still today, uh, this conflict between Moscow and Washington that hasn't gone away. But it, it always takes form of, you know, somebody.

Interceding, this sort of a, there's always a sort of a middleman as it were, a proxy. Um, and I was really just driven to, to kind of unpack that, especially because I'd spent so much time in St. Petersburg.

[00:09:37] Chris: Yeah. What are your feelings on the notion that Putin sees himself at War of the West whilst obviously the other, the other way round?

We don't, we're trying not to see ourselves at war with Russia.

[00:09:46] Candace: Oh. I mean, it's something that I really struggle with and I think a lot of people who spend time, um, you know, working on things connected to Russia or have spent time in Russia, you know, or if you've been to Ukraine, uh, you know, and I think there is this strange, almost surreal feeling because Russia.

100% believes that it's a war with the United States. Um, that's been the case since at least 2014. And you know, it, it's taken different shapes and forms, uh, sometimes in the form of, you know, uh, these proxy warriors, right? Like Wagner group, but other things, disinformation, right? Attacks on elections, um, you know, attacks on journalists, attacks on the pillars of democracy in various parts of the West.

And it is a little bit, um, until recently, I have to say, until, you know, the invasion of 2022, it felt like shouting in the wind, you know? Mm. Um, ex trying to explain to people that. There is this nation of, you know, something like 148 million people. Um, not all of them, you know, are with Putin per se, but the, the, the core nexus right, of the Kremlin, um, and the power brokers who kind of, uh, rely on Putin and Putin or Putinism, um, are very convinced that they are at war, uh, with the United States.

And somehow it really wasn't ringing through until February of 2022.

[00:11:14] Chris: Mm mm Yeah. And I think that, you know, there were a lot of people who, politicians in particular have been sort of semi in denial about it and not wanting to sort of face up to this problem. And, and I think, you know, obviously the war was a unfortunate wake up call for a lot of people.

[00:11:28] Candace: I think they don't know what to do. Yeah. I mean, I think that's the question is sort of if you openly admit that you know, that you're at war with you, you know, with Russia, um, I mean the next logical step is then, you know, to escalate. Right? And I think there's something too. Uh, Vladimir Putin's strategy, this proxy warfare.

This indirect means, this irregular means of confronting, uh, United States and NATO partners. Um, that strategy has worked very well because he understands that, uh, the West doesn't really need to go to war with Russia now, right? I mean, there's nothing. Truly driving the United States there. Um, you know, that sort of where it's sort of central interest to the national security, uh, of the United States, which is why we've had this teetering, uh, kind of almost stuttering support for Ukraine.

Um, and I think he, you know, if there's one thing you can say about Vladimir Putin is he knows how to read a room. Uh, he really understands, um, the psychology of, of his rivals, uh, and spends a lot of time, I think thinking about it and studying about it. And, um, and that's where, you know, people in Washington, people in London, they are greatly disadvantaged in some ways.

[00:12:46] Chris: Yeah, indeed, indeed. I find, yeah, Putin's such a fascinating figure. I don't admire him, but I can unders uh, uh, kind of like, um, he, he has something abound to me. He seems very in control of himself and, uh, and obviously he, he has the luxury of not having to be reelected. That's right. So I think that helps him a lot.

Let's take a break and be right back with more.

Can you talk to us about the origins of the Wagner Group and how and why it was created?

[00:13:29] Candace: The origin story of the Wagner Group is really, you kind of point to three maybe trend lines, um, that kind of converge. One is, uh, what I was talking about, sort of this convergence of the mafia culture with the security agencies.

Um, and then this one third thread that people don't really think about very often. But in the 1990s as Russia was sort of in free fall after the collapse of the Soviet Union, a lot of veterans were coming home from Afghanistan. A lot of Russian veterans are coming home from Afghanistan. A lot of them were out of sorts, out of work.

They had no, uh, safety net. Uh, because the government, and still this, this is true today, um, there's no Veterans Affairs department that sort of takes care of, uh, you know, Russian veterans. It's all sort of left up to these associations. But in the early 1990s. While you have this kind of convergence of the security agencies and then the, uh, you know, the mafia, all of these veterans become kind of in service, right?

To, uh, both to the mafia and to the security agencies. These are sportsmen, these are soldiers, and, um, they're the bouncers at the, you know, at the club door, right? Um, and that, that three-way convergence, um, led to kind of a, a social phenomenon, a social movement, almost a burgeoning social movement, a lot of disaffection around the loss of status.

So that's one part of where the Wagner group really comes from, is that that disaffection, that collapse, that, that sense of, um, sort of social disruption, uh, that came out of the 1990s. Um, but another piece is also. A, a reaction from the Kremlin and specifically from Putin to the color revolutions, where, uh, if you'll remember in 2004, uh, you know, there was the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the, the uprising because of election interference or perceived election interference, uh, from Russia, uh, that led to, you know, the kind of first democratic uprising in, in Ukraine.

And then, right, you know, soon after that was, uh, Georgia, right? So, actually, sorry, it was Georgia first and then it was, uh, uh, orange Revolution. And then finally, and people often forget this one was the Tulip revolution, uh, in Kyrgyzstan, right? So, um, those three events really spooked Putin. And um, it sort of precipitated this really sense that actually.

Accommodation with the West was no longer possible. Um, there was, you know, he saw in his mind he saw the hand of the west, um, sort of moving chess pieces around the board basically. And that was being echoed in the culture at the time, right? There was a lot of rising stars. Uh, one very famous one, Alexander Dugan, who's, uh, sort of, sort of the right wing philosopher extraordinaire, um, who was starting to gain a little bit of influence within the military culture within the Elite Officer Corps.

So that's another big origin piece. Um, and then I would say the last, and they're kind of interrelated is just globalization itself. Uh, you know, the phenomenon of kind of Russia reentering the global market, you know, the first time in almost, gosh, 80 years basically, or 50 years. Um, that was really, I. A moment that you saw also the rise of G Prom, uh, Rosneft, Rotech, these big state enterprises.

Um, and under some early laws that were passed in, um, the early two thousands, there was, um, a law that basically permitted GS prom to hire its own army. So unlike the United States or the UK where you had these sort of private security companies, the first private security companies were really essentially a paramilitary extension of these gas and oil companies, um, which were of course, global, right?

They had reach all over the world. So that's kind of the origin story. Um, but if you wanna sort of draw a much more direct line between, you know, uh, you Guinea, ProGo, uh, and, and, and, uh, the rise of the Wagner group, it really does start. Right around the Arab Spring when Russia is seeking quietly to insert itself in Syria, um, this is before they actually declared their full support for the Assad regime, and they began sending in, you know, a.

Small battalions, uh, of men who were part of this veteran class out of work, out of sorts. And that's kind of the, that's the beginning. And it was once there was kind of this failed excursion in Syria that resulted in, uh, kind of these mercenaries being outed. Um, you know, the kind of, the cat was out of the bag, so to speak, and they became very useful, uh, in, of course in Crimea and also very useful in Donbas in 2014.

[00:18:27] Chris: Yeah. Can you talk to us about the kinda relationship between the GIU and the Wagner group?

[00:18:31] Candace: Well, it's a very tight relationship. There's an impression that, that, you know, that there's, it's, it was always arms length or that, you know, that Prgo was doing pretty much everything on his own. And there is, I think, a lot of truth to that.

There's some great research out there, um, folks who've talked, uh, and spent time with mercenaries in the field. Um, and it's true that I think Prgo was an entrepreneur and we can, you know, we can trace that all the way back to his. Early years as a, you know, a hotdog salesman in St. Petersburg and then, you know, becoming a caterer extraordinaire to, to Putin and, uh, Kremlin.

So that, I think that's absolutely a hundred percent true. I think he, you know, talked about that experience and documented it. Uh, at the same time, um, when we looked at some of those correspondence, uh, you could see, you know, very clearly he, you know, Prego and his employees laying out the case for why they were going to send, you know, a small battalion of men secretly, um, you know, from Ukraine into Syria.

Uh, this is a circa 2014, right? Um, so basically even as, even as the whole world has their eyes on, uh, the disaster that's unfolding in eastern Ukraine already, Prego is writing a very formal note explaining like how good they have done to kind of control the situation and making the case that actually, um, this might be the solution that.

Putin was looking for, which is a quiet secret, paramilitary, a shadow army that could solve a lot of problems. And the most important part is of course, um, you know, once the sanctions were imposed because of the invasion of Crimea, um, you know, the Kremlin was looking for ways to evade those sanctions and Prigozhin presented himself as a solution.

[00:20:18] Chris: Mm. How did Putin sort of see the Wagner group, um, you know, and how, how it'd be useful for his global ambitions?

[00:20:25] Candace: Look, a big piece of his global ambitions was to always, um, he was very obsessed with this idea of Russia becoming an energy superpower. And, um, you know, it's been written about if you know people who write about Russian history and sort of this Putin era.

You talk about his early years of trying to convert himself from a KGB agent to sort of a political professional, right?

[00:20:52] Chris: Mm-hmm.

[00:20:52] Candace: And on that pathway, he, you know, he plagiarized, uh, his own dissertation and the subject was on how, uh, the transformation of Russia's energy, uh, industry would ultimately also transform Russia into a great power.

See, I'm sort of paraphrasing here. Um, but even then, you know, in the early, you know, 1990s, he was quite fixed on this idea that he. Oil and gas, um, you know, big, uh, fossil fuel commodities. Also exporting, uh, that engineering capacity was Russia's pathway back to wealth, back to power, back to, uh, being seen as an equal of the United States.

And, you know, of course the uk. So that's where the, the impetus comes from. Um, because once the sanctions, um, that the EU and the US started to impose, one of the first things they did was hit gas prop, right? And hit, you know, all of these different parts of the energy, um, infrastructure. And that is basically like hitting the, you know, the Russian piggy bank because oil and gas revenues are tied very closely to the sovereign wealth fund of, of Russia.

And if you can't sell oil and gas in Russia, you can't pay pensions. And if you can't pay pensions, you have rebellion. So in some ways, um, what the Wagner group did. Enable the continuation secretly, right, um, of oil and gas industry to expand outward. And most importantly, uh, the other component here is the sales of arms, right?

Um, that was also something that was under embargo, is that the, you know, Russia is the number two exporter of, uh, of arms in the world after the United States. And, um, you know, once the Arab Spring happened, it lost a big part of its client base. So what the Wagner Group did was essentially kind of create this mask, as it were, you know, this kind of, um, plausible deniability.

Um, and Putin used that very well to sort of say, I don't know anything about those guys. You know, they're just, um, citizens, or if they are. Doing something, they're, it has nothing to do with us. Hmm. Um, that deniability was crucial, but it also allowed him, um, to ensure that the Russian state always had clients in places like the Middle East and, and Africa.

[00:23:18] Chris: Yeah. Yeah. And obviously that deniability out the window now completely out the window, so to speak. Yeah. And it has been, for many people, for many years is, is, is quite an interesting thing, the whole proxy war thing. 'cause it's sort of blatantly obvious that it is the Russians, but at the same time, diplomatically, one can't say it is.

It's, it's a fascinating sort of dance people have to do with that.

[00:23:40] Candace: It's an escalation control thing.

[00:23:41] Chris: Escalation control, yeah. Yeah. And like you were saying earlier, kind of what are the options then on a table to deal with that? 'cause it's not an easy thing to do because obviously, you know, I think many politicians rightly want to avoid Cold War 2.0.

But, um, yeah, it's, it's not always of our choosing is it. No. So, um, you mentioned earlier, obviously there were a lot of former veterans who joined the Wagner Group. Um, I was just wondering what kind of people they then later on recruited. 'cause there were obviously talks of for the Ukraine war, like criminals are being recruited, et cetera, and I was wondering if you can talk to us about the kind of people in the Ner group.

What motivates them? You know, are they ideologues, opportunists, or just simply desperate people? They've kind of pulled in,

[00:24:21] Candace: you know, there was always a criminal element, right? I mean, yo Guinea Rozen himself, um, as most people now know of course, is he was a convicted felon. Uh, he spent the first 10 years of his adult life in a, you know, a Russian prison for, um, it's what was generally described as thuggery, essentially.

Um, he, you know, did a lot of robberies, violent robberies. Um, it was actually his second go round. And so he, he was somebody who, he himself right, had this experience. Um, and he was very empathetic to others who had the experience. He was very obsessed with this idea of redemption. Um, I think, you know, he had that experience when he went to prison.

You know, he kind of went in with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He came out as somebody, he viewed himself as somebody who was transformed. Um, you know, he viewed himself as somebody who, uh, understood. Uh. You know, that he had a second chance at life. And a lot of the, a lot of the early, uh, members of the Wagner group, like, uh, Dmitri Kin, who of course, uh, is kind of the origin of the, of the group's name, uh, his, his call sign was Wagner after Richard Wagner, uh, Hitler's favorite composer.

So Kin actually also had kind of a troubled history. So he was a, an Airborne Forces, um, you know, ve special forces, uh, veteran. So he's, you know, he'd spent a lot of time involved in Shadow Wars as a young man. Um, but a lot of, like a lot of folks in special forces, they have trouble with authority. Um, and so he had gotten into some sort of issue with, um, you know, one of his superiors.

Um, it was almost everybody. In the early days had the same story, but the vast majority of them were veterans who, you know, had spent time in the B Bri. Right. Or who, when they were transitioning. Um, you know, they got involved in, in a life of crime. Um, and that was something that was always a commonality.

It was only later, right when the pressure was on to expand those numbers really fast. Uh, you know, in, in 2022 that, uh, Prigozhin apparently got permission from the Ministry of Defense and the corrections ministry to go in and start recruiting prisoners. And so, but in that first year, what's interesting is that they were very targeted.

Uh, they went to prisons that had a lot of folks who had been in the military, they looked for ex-police officers. So they even had, um, different letters assigned on their dog tags for those folks. So, um, but over time of course, that number started to dry up because the war was so, you know, heavy and, um, and they just had to kind of, as you were sort of scrape the bottom of the barrel.

[00:27:06] Chris: Mm. So the Wagner group of operations in some of the most volatile places on earth. And I was wondering if you could just talk us through some of the kind of key regions where they've been active.

[00:27:14] Candace: I think people kind of get confused about the true origins here, but, um, there was a predecessor organization, uh, before the Wagner Group that actually did have a corporate footprint.

Um, and um, that organization kind of imploded in the middle of, I'd say like 2000. 12, uh, yeah, 12, 13. And it just, you know, business did not go well in Syria basically. And, um, it was Prego who kind of transformed Prego and Kin. And another man who was the executive director, uh, Andre Troche, who transformed what was a pretty small battalion of about 300 guys into in Syria.

Um, it grew to about 2,400 men. Um, and so sometime around, let's say 2016, um, as the sanctions from the United States began to bite, um, and, you know, and after the Mueller investigation into, uh, Russian interference into elections, uh, sanctions got even heavier. So, you know, once 2017 came around, the pain was starting to be felt, um, across, uh, the Russian economy.

And I think there was an urge, uh, from a lot of people who wanted to be close to the Kremlin to get out there and kind of. Reverse that pain or show you could be useful. Um, and Prego began to explore, um, you know, what possibilities there were in Africa. Now, he did not do that alone. Um, I think there's this impression that he sort of just went out there and did that, um, without any kind of checking over his shoulder or talking to the GRU.

Uh, but in actual fact, the GRU. Was already maneuvering to begin, for instance, negotiations in the Central African Republic, um, where, uh, a very active, you know, quiet shadow campaign in the UN to broker, uh, a lift on the embargo, uh, of arms exports into this, you know, decimated, uh, African country that had been just riven by civil war.

Um, you know, Russia was invited through its own sort of campaigning, uh, to, to step in, provide arms, provide training and equipment. Now, uh, nobody said Wagner, I mean, Wagner, uh, even today, I think most Russians, um, who've been involved with it understand it to be more myth than, um, than reality. It's, it's a brand, you know, it's a way of kind of signaling, you know, who you're part of.

Um, but in actual fact, these were. Peacekeepers that were sent to Central African Republic, um, frankly, that were under a un resolution. Um, so the mystery was really more about sort of like the fact that they had no insignia. So the same thing that we saw the little Green Men style and Crimea, they were kind of bringing that into Africa.

Yeah. So yeah. You had 'em everywhere.

[00:30:05] Chris: Yeah. What was that, what was that role kind of in the opening of the war in Ukraine?

[00:30:10] Candace: Well, now that's a complicated question. Um, you know, there were a lot of different militias that were quite active, you know, in Eastern Dunbars. So after the Crimean invasion, after the successful pacification essentially of Crimea and then, uh, the, the referendum that of course was challenged by the world, uh, is not legitimate, but nonetheless happened.

So this is March, 2014. Um, you know, a group of militia men who are. Finance by another oligarch. Uh, his name is Constantine Veev. He's, he's known as the Orthodox oligarch. Um, they sort of, they march into Donbass, um, and into, uh, the Donk area, uh, and kind of lay claim to the center. Um, but it doesn't go particularly well.

Um, there's a lot of indiscipline, there's a lot of Maring gangs. Um, and at the time, Wagner was just, you know, 10 guys, um, who were sent in to see that they could kind of sew up the logistics. Um, make sure that guns and things could move into Eastern Donbass. Ultimately what that led to was, um, the battle for the, um, airport in Luhansk.

And that's where Dmitri Usan kind of, uh, became quite famous. You know, people kept hearing about this kind of person named Dmitri Wagner Wagner, but it was MH 17. If you remember the downing of the commercial jetliner in 2014, July, 2017, that's when the stories kind of start to converge, where you see, um, you know, kin and his little cadre of men, um, kind of fighting in the same area where, um, another group of, uh, you know, Russian separatists who were led by basically Kremlin, uh, Kremlin directed, uh, leaders shot down that plane.

And it was through that kind of in discipline that ultimately, um, the. Seemed to have hired Wagner to take out the recalcitrant, uh, parts of the Russian separatist movement in the middle of the Minsk, uh, negotiation. So they were trying, you know, here's Putin trying to broker a piece, because he, he realizes, you know, after MH 17, that, you know, he can't afford an escalation of that sort.

And so in the middle of this negotiation, you have a bunch of separatists, Russian separatists saying, no, no, no, no. We're, you know, we're gonna continue fighting. And so the order comes down, you know, take him out. And so Wagner's big fame to claim, uh, was that they took out something like five, six, uh, Russian separatists.

Leaders that the Kremlin had backed but then suddenly wanted to back away from because they were, they were nervous about the ceasefire arrangement.

[00:33:02] Chris: Yeah. One interesting thing I'd love to chat about is President Zelensky. He's shown a lot of courage in public, but I was wondering what you could tell us about his behind the scenes battle of the Wagner Group and sort of what's most surprised you about how he handled these shadowy threats from them?

[00:33:16] Candace: Yeah. I mean, Zelensky is such an interesting leader. I mean, just his transformation. Mm. Um, I was in Kyiv in 2019 during the, uh, campaign, uh, for, yeah, it was so interesting. You know, at the time you had, uh, Petro Shanko, who of course is the incumbent. Um, you had Yulia Chenko who was quite famous because of she, her role in the Orange Revolution.

And then you had this kind of, you know, this outsider comedian who everybody kind of thought like his campaign was a joke at first. Um, I think he probably even thought it was a joke at first, right? Like, I'm not sure how seriously he took it. Um, and yet there was that weird parallel with, you know, with his show, um, you know, a servant of the people.

[00:34:01] Chris: Yes. I've seen a few episodes. Yeah.

[00:34:04] Candace: You know, and, but it was such a, it was such an exciting time because you just, there were probably like 19 candidates, but he did stand out. Um, he, he certainly understood how exhausted people were with the war. Um, he, you know, so he campaigned, uh, you know, on a promise to really broker a deal with Putin.

That's what he ran on, is that I'm gonna, I'm gonna make a deal. And, um, and, you know, somehow that seemed to appeal. There were other parts I think that appeal and, um, and so when he finally was elected in, I guess it was summer of 2019, um, you know, probably unbeknownst to him, there was a deal going on, uh, that the local sort of the FBI, as it were of, of, uh, of Ukraine was in the process of trying to capture a bunch of Wagner group guys who they thought actually had been involved in the takedown of a, uh, of a Ukrainian jet carrying a bunch of officers in the same summer of 2014.

Oh yeah, I remember that. Mm. Yeah. And so Zelensky, you know, came into office probably knowing nothing about this. Right. Um. But when he learned of it, he was briefed on it. He was in the middle, literally in the middle of negotiations that had been, uh, set up by the Swiss. Um, he was, on the one hand, he was telling Putin Yep, ready to do a deal.

In the meantime, in the background, um, you know, his own people, perhaps unbeknownst to him, were plotting to take some 33 guys, uh, from the Wagner group into custody through a sort of surreptitious operation in, in Belarus. And, and he put a stop to it, um, because he said, look, it's not worth it. Whatever's going on with this Wagner group stuff, it's not worth it.

Now that's really, I mean, you think about it, uh, you know, that's 2020 that that happened. Um, flash forward just two years later and you have, you have Guinea prgo, you know, in the, you know, tell watching, doing a selfie of himself, challenging zelensky to a dual, like an aerial dual, uh, in a jet fighter. It is like, what's wild?

Um, I. Fully understood the threat when, uh, you know, he heard about the assassination attempt that, you know, Kremlin had this list. Um, and of course his, his name was number one on the list for people who needed to be assassinated. Um, and there was this idea that the Wagner group was gonna be, you know, the, the, you know, the saboteurs and assassins behind it all, an actual fact.

There's a lot of misnomers about that. But it was there, it was the beginning of that 2022 engagement where Zelensky became a little bit obsessed with, you know, kind of pushing back to the point where, you know, uh, he sacrificed tens of thousands, uh, in the battle for Bach mots because Prego ed him on. I mean, um, in some ways he really, I think Zelensky transformed his understanding of, of the nature of that threat.

Um, I think I. In retrospect, he probably would say that was a mistake. Um, but it was an important turning point for him as a leader, uh, because he was also kind of confronting the denialism that had been so much part of the early part of the war in 2014.

[00:37:21] Chris: Yeah. Do we know how close any assassination attempts have been to Zelensky?

[00:37:26] Candace: Yeah. You know, I, I actually visited, um, gosh, that was very shortly after. It was probably summer of 2022. Um, one of my field visits out there and a, a very good friend who, you know, wonderful, uh, researcher took me up to, just to the point 50 yards just outside of the presidential palace, um, right where the entrance is and, you know, he kind of laid out what happened there and something like 50 commandos.

Um. Who they assumed were with Wagner, but in actual fact turned out with, to be with a rival, uh, mercenary outfit, um, swarmed the palace, so only 50 yards away, uh, swarmed the palace. But, um, they were mowed down, you know, by, uh, Ukrainian Special Forces. So, um, I think on several occasions they came very close.

[00:38:16] Chris: Yeah. Gosh, that's scary, isn't it? Oh, yeah, yeah. I do worry for Zelensky. I hope he manages to get through all this, but, uh, I guess, um, time will tell on that one.

[00:38:25] Candace: Well, he's been very tough so far.

[00:38:27] Chris: Yeah, yeah, yeah. He has, he has. Let's take a break and be right back with more.

Can you explain to us about the, the Wagner group's role in sort of information warfare and disinformation? Because obviously that's a very big thing that they've been involved with, and I was wondering what tactics the public should be made more aware of?

[00:39:00] Candace: I think the magic of you have Guinea prgo, um, that is not fully understood, is that he was a marketing genius.

Um, you know, he could turn some of the most gruesome things into, you know, things that would end up on t-shirts and, you know, coffee mugs. Um, I mean, the best example of this, of course, and that's where the, the title Putin Sledgehammer comes from is an incident involving, uh, the killing an on camera killing of a Syrian national with a sledgehammer.

That kind of begins the mythos, I think, wag of. Really comes from Pregos ability to call black, white, right? Um, and he really understood that the internet was just critical to creating this illusion, right? And so he created, um, everybody, he knows this story now, but you know, he started what's called the Internet Research Agency, um, which was, you know, people call it the troll farm, but it was actually a lot more sophisticated than just a bunch of kids, you know, trolling on Facebook and, and so forth.

It was using really high level, um, social marketing techniques. It was leaning into the narratives of, um, you know, uh, basically disruption leading into divides, social divides. So in the, in the, in the United Kingdom, of course, what that looked like was, you know, um, very pro Brexit, um, very anti-European, um, in the United States.

What that looked like, uh. It was, they really played up the race card when it came to the US election. Uh, they did the same thing in France. It was kind of very similar kind of, uh, use. And they would basically stand up these fake accounts on Facebook and Telegram and, uh, was, you know, Twitter now X um, and it would be sort of like, you know, Mary Jo Smiths, um, you know, loves white people, you know, this kind of, and, but, and she would get a great following.

You know, he was, he was a genius at understanding the power of youth. Um, he hired a lot of young, smart polyglot, uh, students from, uh, St. Petersburg State University, some of whom went on to help him form his empire in Central African Republic. And he also in Africa. I think one of the most important I can, I think victories, I suppose, of his marketing campaign was kind of taking that colonial history, um, that real anger.

Uh, you know, between Africa and Europe over centuries of, you know, uh, abuse and, you know, sort of inequality. And he kind of turned everything on head. Constantly just bombarding, you know, Facebook, which Facebook in some parts of Africa, um, is, is the internet, right? It's like when you go to, you know, get on the internet, you know, we might go to Google or we might go to some other browser, but most people just go to Facebook.

And, um, and he really understood that really well. Um, and so he kind of leaned into that. He spent a lot of money, uh, on building these very elaborate campaigns. And of course, um, in Africa and in Egypt and, and Libya, uh, there were of course media companies that were bought out and sort of refurbished and, and turned into propaganda machines.

He brought in, um, anthropologists, sociologists who understood the local languages, uh, and created kind of campaign slogans. So he was very masterful. And the Wagner group. Um, was kind of the, kind of like the advertisement for like, you know, what power looked like, what functioning looked like, um, and those two things combined to be very powerful forces in projecting Russian power abroad.

[00:42:38] Chris: Hmm. I find this whole t tr album thing really interesting 'cause I think there's still a lot of people out there who don't understand that people were employed to basically look at a target society and kinda look what the tension points were and exploit them. And I, I just find it really so fascinating 'cause there's still many people today who hear troll farm and they kind of brush it off and don't quite get the scale of it.

[00:43:00] Candace: Yeah. I mean, I think also what doesn't really come through is that this is actually an old Russian doctrine. Right. It even dates all the way back to the Bolshevik era, which is kind of, um, you know, hiding the real and showing the false. This is this idea of mascaro fka Right. Wearing kind of different guises, uh, to.

To actually commit errors, sort of unforced errors. Um, and, and that's, you know, certainly in the case of the US election 2016, people will always forever in debate, you know, to what degree did Russian interference really sway the vote in favor of, of Trump? What, what matters is, um, where Russia succeeded was not just, you know, you can debate the Trump outcome, but you cannot debate that.

It greatly undermined faith in the electoral process. Oh yeah. Um, and it created a lot of mistrust and polarization and that in itself is, is the kind of, kind of success that you can't really measure. Uh, we're living through that now, obviously, uh, in this era. And the, and the consequences of that.

[00:44:08] Chris: Do you have any insight on, um, how the Wagner group may or may not have, um, influenced conspiracy culture online?

'cause conspiracy theories are massive and obviously post nine 11 they really grew and I wondered if Russia had had any, any past in exaggerating or, or even making up some conspiracies that are popular today.

[00:44:27] Candace: Uh, well, well certainly, um, you know, there, I think many of them are very case specific to given areas.

I mean, some of the work, uh, that the internet research agency, uh, was doing, and these are ad buys by the way, you know, this is sort of. Uh, buying ads on Facebook, buying, you know, space, and that's pretty cheap. Um, you know, and if you could have a bot that can kind of repeat and amplify, you know, at scale, um, it could be very powerful.

Um, I think, you know, the biggest mythos is that Wagner was a company, like, it was a unitary company, like, like Blackwater, but it never was. It was literally a network of shell companies and individuals who found it profitable to project power on behalf of the Kremlin. Um, and to promote this idea that, you know, Russian military might and military power, um, was something that could save some of these very unstable states, right?

Mm-hmm. Um, but you, you know, you could look at today, you could look at Central African Republic today. And you can see that the objective for Russian forces in these areas is not to solve the problem, it's to keep it at a low boil so that the profit keeps flowing. I think that's a huge achievement in terms of sort of conspiracy theories, this idea.

But I think there's also, I will say, um, that the Internet Research agency and Wagner as like kind of, uh, the information enterprise has done a lot of work to target, uh, journalists and journalists who are determined to, you know, uncover the. Uh, the Kremlin Secrets. Um, and notably, you know, at, at various points, um, yiv Guinea Prgo used his internet research agency and turned it against Alex Navalny.

Uh, that was even before, uh, the, the Crimean War. That's kind of where his claim to fame was sort of building this mythos that, um, Alexander, uh, Alex Navalny was a tool of the West. Um, he in, he inflated this whole documentary, it was called Anatomy of a Protest, and it would, you know, he hired a bunch of sort of fake.

Protestors. Um, you know, it was just, it's a crazy story. You can't even begin to repeat it. You, you only in Hollywood could you, you know, have something like this. Um, but that mythos around, um, Navalny and other opposition characters. Um, Prego was really deep into promoting a lot of that stuff. Uh, and it was quite effective within the Russian public, within the Russian sphere.

[00:47:05] Chris: Mm-hmm. Thank you for that. Now you gave me percussions, rise and fall almost reads like a political thriller. And what does his story tell us about sort of loyalty, betrayal and power within Putin's inner circle?

[00:47:17] Candace: Well, the first thing it should tell you is that there's nothing that's private. There's no such thing as private enterprise in Putin's Russia.

Um, if, if Putin decides that you are useful, um, and, and that you are loyal, you might be given, you know, a pathway to, to wealth. Um, but he can always take it back. I think that's one big lesson is that, um, you know. The right hand giveth and the left hand is always ready to take it away. Um, and that loyalty only takes you so far.

Right? Anything that challenges the, the structure, uh, that Putin has built, you know, the enterprise that's kind of marries mafia culture with the state security control over every aspect of life. Anything that threatens that is gonna be, you know, punished or cut out. Uh, and Ian's mistake was not understanding that he had, he had crossed a threshold that he had sort of, he, his usefulness, um, after he became associated, you know, quite famously and openly with the Wagner group diminished, right?

Mm. Because the, it was the deniability that was such a powerful thing for, for Putin.

[00:48:30] Chris: Yeah. Now the, the Wagner mutiny shocked the world, but you saw it coming. I was wondering what signs did you spot that others missed, and do you think Precursion ever expected to get as far as he did? Because I've got my own personal thoughts on that.

[00:48:45] Candace: Oh, I want to hear that for sure. You know, some of the early signs may not have been as obvious to people who were kind of just going about their normal day. Uh, for people who are kind of obsessively watching, what was unfolding on Telegram and on the contact here and all these sort of social media sites, um, I think some of the early signs were, there were some lawsuits, uh, that again, um, this was all sort of privileged information.

It was part of some leak documentation, but lawsuits between Prego and the Kremlin, that was one hint that something was going on. There were rival, uh, mercenary outfits. Uh, notoriously dut, uh, was stood up. And, um, was deployed, you know, before even the Wagner group was brought in, in, uh, in March of 2022. So there, there was already a sense even, you know, as they're jumping in, in the spring of 2022, that, um, it's not, it's not that Prego have looked at as the solution.

He was part of a larger solution, um, which involved grabbing, you know, what, what was available off the shelf. So that's one indicator, but yeah. But obviously, um, it was in January of, of, um. Of 2023 that you really started to see the unraveling begin. And unless you are watching really closely, maybe you wouldn't have known this, but there was a YouTube channel, um, you know, run by a Russian dissident, um, called Gulag Gulag.

No. Right? So no to, no to the, and um, and they started broadcasting these very interesting defector, uh, confessions about, you know, people who had defected from the Wagner group left the frontline and said, I'm quitting. And one in particular, uh, was a young man, man named Andreev, who in December of 2022, uh, cut a short little video saying, you have Guinea pregos, you know, crazy.

Uh, I can't keep fighting like this. I'm leaving Wagner. It's very dramatic, right? And then not more than a few weeks later, uh, you hear this story of a young. Russian defector, uh, running across the frozen tundra, um, from, uh, way North Russia into Norway on foot dogs chasing him. It was like a Hollywood movie.

And, um, and that's, it was Andre Meda saying, I, I have to leave because I'm under threat. And this cascade of defectors started appearing online saying, Ian's crazy. He's, he's throwing us into what they call the Bach meat grinder. So many guys were dying. So that was one of the early signs. And then the second was.

You might remember this, in April of 2023, there was a massive bombing at a cafe in St. Petersburg, and it happened to be, uh, where you have Guinea Ian's first, one of his first restaurants open there. Um, and it was a, the killing of a military blogger, you know, one of these Russian sort of gung-ho guys. Mm.

[00:51:50] Chris: Um,

[00:51:51] Candace: who Prgo had invited to kind of take over that cafe. A young woman came with a gold bust and handed it to him, and, you know,

[00:51:58] Chris: yeah, that's, yeah. Yeah. I remember this.

[00:52:01] Candace: Yeah. I mean, it was really, you know, you could, if you understood anything about, you know, the language of the mafia, um, you know, sending somebody into, uh, you know, basically your backyard, um, and setting off a bomb is a pretty good sign that somebody's not happy with you, right?

Mm-hmm. Um, and doing it in this kind of. Pretty historic place that only Putin probably would've understood the power of that. And you know, I think that's when I started to see, okay, so hey, it was pretty obvious that he had a target on his back, but that somebody was going to do something, uh, was another ster.

And then of course, um, prigozhin in the height of the, the Bach moot, uh, engagement in the battle. You know, bodies falling everywhere, just decimation. He goes mad, right? And starts shouting on telegram, you know, for ammunition and threatening, uh, to topple the defense minister. And this is now, you know, you can see that this is a man who's having kind of an apocalypse now moment, sort of a colonel moment unraveling.

Um, but was I. A full on March on Moscow? No, I was not thinking that. Um, I was, I was, I was thinking that, um, you know, you could see also that there were a lot of polls, uh, suggesting that Prigozhin might be a good replacement for either the defense minister, Sergei Sogi, um, or, uh, for Putin himself. And that's when you, you could kind of see that he was sort of, uh, inflating himself, right?

It was sort of both madness, um, and then delusion. It was all these things wrapped up. Um, and it was pretty obvious something was gonna happen. Uh, but I, I don't know if I would've predicted that he would try and march on Moscow with some, you know, 5,000 men. Uh, we still actually don't know the actual number today, but.

Um, but that he would do so unopposed, I think is the more remarkable part.

[00:53:56] Chris: Well, yeah, that's the bit that fascinates me. I, I think he got a lot further than he thought he would. Um, and, and I kind of liken it a little bit to Boris Johnson and the Brexit vote. I don't think, uh, Prego ever intended to replace Vladimir poin or anything, but I think he got a lot closer than he probably thought he would.

[00:54:16] Candace: Yeah. No, I mean, replacement I don't think was really the goal. Um, no, I think he, I think he received a green light from some of his close interlocutors within the military. He did have a lot of supporters, um, people who profited also, by the way, from his ventures. Uh, most importantly, uh, one of them was a Sergei Vean who was, uh, chief of the, uh, aerospace forces in Russia.

Mm. They had fought in, you know, Syria together. They'd sort of made a bond and, um, it was pretty clear later it became clear that Serkin had a range. With one of the sort of far right parties for Prego to go and deliver a speech in Parliament. So, you know, in his mind, you know, in his Colonel Kurt's mind, uh, Prego is thinking, I'm gonna go and petition the Czar and explain like, what's wrong with this war.

We're gonna fight it differently. Um, and when I, once I reach Moscow, everything's gonna be fine. And, and it's not because, you know, he was only delusional because. Somebody had given him the impression in the military that there wasn't gonna be a fight. Um, and it was only as they kind of get about 20, you know, 200 miles outside, kind of near the PEs that things started getting hairy, right?

They're shooting down the helicopters. Um, there is actually some resistance encountered, but I mean, you know, to come within 200 miles. Uh, of Moscow that shows you that actually he wasn't totally off point.

[00:55:43] Chris: No, no. And I, and I think Putin's, uh, hold on power at that point looked very fragile. Um, and, and I think this may be what led to Pregos of Death, which is still a thing officially in Russia, an accident.

But, uh, I was wondering if there's, um, have you, had you uncovered any information, um, any credible information about what really happened and led up to Percussion's death?

[00:56:03] Candace: Yeah, I don't think we're ever gonna know. I mean, that, that's one of, one of the frustrations of trying to write a book like this is, um, you know, one, you can't go there and ask people, um, you know, without facing the threat of death.

And, um, you know, and of course it's in the interest of, of. Putin and the Kremlin to kind of tell a variety of stories. I mean, you know, he gets on camera some, you know, couple days afterwards, uh, after Prego died in the, uh, in the crash. And he says, well, they were playing with grenades, like they were juggling grenades, like a bunch of clowns or something like this.

Here's a guy who's, you know, probably built a multi-billion dollar empire, um, you know, fighting alongside one of the more disciplined soldiers in Russia's history, frankly, uh, you know, Dmitri Kin, who's also on the board, on board the plane, and you have Putin saying, I don't know, maybe they're playing with grenades.

There's probably cocaine you don't know. Um, but you know, what's interesting is, of course, um, Prego, uh, was notoriously a t Toler. He did not, he really didn't like to drink. Um, kin also, um, objected to, to drinking. There was a lot of discipline around this, so it was bit spurious. Um, but I think it's, it's largely assumed, uh, and there is some evidence to show that there was a couple of young women had boarded the plane, um, just a few days ahead of it's taking off.

Um, to back to St. Petersburg. Uh, there there is some supposition that actually, um, you know, something might have been planted on board the plane. And it's, it's the most likely I think, answer.

[00:57:36] Chris: Yeah, indeed. Is there anything else you'd like to add that we've talked about today that's important to you that we may have missed?

[00:57:42] Candace: Well, one of the things that I. I would love to, you know, talk about a little bit is that, you know, people have this impression that Prigozhin died and so Wagner died with him, right?

[00:57:52] Chris: Mm.

[00:57:52] Candace: Um, you know, you have Genni pr, PRGO died, kin died, you know, in the plane crash. And then everything was very neatly tied up at a bow and everyth, you know?

Um, and the Russian state took over the Wagner group. Um, there's some truth to that. Some, you know, some parts of the Prego Empire certainly did die with him. Um, but his son, of course, Pavo Prigozhin, who at the time was I think about 25, 26 years old when his father was killed in that plane crash, um, became kind of this, you know, figurehead.

He took over a few of the shell companies that kind of constitute part of his father's empire, part of the Wagner Empire. Now the Wagner group. Is transformed into what is now known as the Africa Corps. Um, so a good portion of the guys who fought alongside, um, Prego and Kin, um, now work for this paramilitary expeditionary force, uh, that's in Mali, that's in Sudan, or at least was in Sudan or recently, um, you know, Libya.

So they're still there. Um, but now they're kind of on a tighter leash. I think that's important to understand and they're really still a necessary part of. Financing the war in Ukraine, you know, without those military operations, without that, um, you know, these billion dollar weapon sales, you know, to places in the Sahel, it would be very difficult for Russia to finance the war in Ukraine.

And I think the other thing that's really important to note is if you've been hearing, uh, about some of these arson cases and sabotage cases in, in Poland and Europe and uh, and even in the uk I believe there's also a case. Um, those are Wagner branded. Not all of them, but a lot of them have connections to, um, Wagner Telegram channels and Wagner handles.

Um, and there's a, there's still a tie there. So they are, they remain an active threat and they are transforming into something that I think people need to pay attention to.

[00:59:46] Chris: Mm-hmm. Where can listeners find out more about you, your work, and your book?

[00:59:51] Candace: Well, there's a couple places you can go. I think the place that will probably excite most people is a dedicated website that my colleagues and I, I just wanted to give a shout out to, uh, my research partner, Ben Dalton, who has been just, I.

You know, with me, you know, cheek and Gil the whole way on this, this, uh, this journey. We put a website together called uncovering wagner.org. Um, and there you can kind of look at how, um, you know, how the organization really looked and how it really worked. There's a lot of analysis and data and visualizations there.

Um, and if you wanna find out about me, you can go to new america.org, uh, and look up future front lines and learn more about our program.

[01:00:31] Chris: Fantastic. Well, thank you so much for joining me, Stan. Thank you for your time.

[01:00:34] Candace: Thank you.

[01:01:08] Announcer: Thanks for listening. This is Secrets and Spies.