Hello everyone
and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always Stan McCune
Realtor right here in Greenville South Carolina
you can find all of my contact information in the show
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your local real estate needs
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Raph if you're watching or listening
I don't know
I don't know if he if he watches every episode
you'll notice a different background
my office is in the process of being renovated
and I'm going to have a natural background soon
so not a green screen so the green screen is gone
currently just a brown wall behind me
but that's going to look a lot more aesthetic here in the future
and today of course it was Independence Day
I'm wearing little patriotic colors little red
white and blue for you guys that are
that are watching on Facebook
Live or watching on YouTube
and my wife is calling me right now so that's fun
hopefully she doesn't need me
because it's gonna be a minute
before I'm gonna be able to answer that call but
hope you guys had a great 4th of July
had a fun time cooking out
drinking sitting at the pool
getting in the pool a little chilly actually
at my at my pool that I have
we don't get a ton of sun this time of year
just we've got very tall trees in my property
so anyway hope you guys had a great time
but I want to
I've been looking forward to this episode for a while
I want to look back at the bold predictions that I made
at the beginning of the year
and see exactly how we're doing
how are we tracking so far with these bold predictions
because last year I
I do the bold predictions every year
last year I wasn't super happy with how that went
I I I'm usually pretty good at predicting stuff
did not do a great job last year
so I wanna see at least midway point of this year
how is it going so far
so here's what I've got for you guys
I've got the 10 bold predictions
that I made at the beginning of the year
and we're just gonna go through them and see
how we're tracking so far
and this will help you guys to see what's
going on in the market as well
so the first bold prediction I had was
with regard to mortgage rates
I said that mortgage rates would remain above 6%
Per Mortgage News Daily for the entire year
for the entirety of 2025
despite you know what was happening in tariffs
the bond market whatever the Federal Reserve was doing
all of these different things
I was very confident
there were a lot of people that thought oh
mortgage rates for sure will go into the fives
by the end of the year
I predicted that that would not happen
now if you're watching this on YouTube
I'm sorry I can't share this with the Facebook Live
but I'm gonna share with you my screen here
and you can see mortgage rates have in fact
per Mortgage News Daily
been above 6% for the entire year
they even went above seven percent
a couple of times this year
so at the moment we're really tracking on that
now there is a mortgage lender who likes to troll
some of my Facebook post
when I talk about mortgage rates
and tell me that I need to be a licensed
mortgage officer
lender in order to be able to share this data
that's completely not true so stop trolling
you know that that's not true
I'm just reading off of Mortgage News Daily
what their aggregated average rates are
and of course if you're interested in buying a home
you need to talk to a lender to find out exactly
what your rate might be
I'm not telling you that your rate would be anything
based on the way these rates are currently
but based on that one website
which is a pretty well known reputable website
aggregates mortgage rates all over the country
we've been above 6% and that's the metric that I said
that I would use for determining
whether rates were above 6% for the year
so far so good right
cause at the moment the average is 6.75
it would take probably a recession
quite frankly in
in our economy
for that number to go below 6% by the end of the year
so I don't see that happening
I think that I'm
I'm on track
or I was on track when I made that prediction
second prediction
I said will we have a recession and will inflation go to 2%
for the year right
these are two if you're into the
you know financial stuff or
or economic stuff these are two questions that
a lot of people have had for a long time
and my prediction
back in January was that we would have no recession
and that inflation would return to
at or below 2% by the fourth quarter
so far so good
the the data on the economy is
is super interesting right now
I'm gonna share my screen again on YouTube
the economic data is so interesting
we just had a a jobs report
that most people are saying
was a really strong jobs report
but it was propped up by government jobs okay
so it's hard to really know what to take of that
but generally speaking there is a not a clear
obvious path to us going into a recession
at this point by the end of the year
I still think that that's a pretty good prediction
with regard to inflation
the metric that I used in January
and that I'm going to continue to use is PCE
I'm not gonna get into the
into the weeds on what that is
but it's the personal consumption
expenditures price index and long story short
that is really one of the Fed's
primary ways that they measure inflation
there's a lot of different ways to measure it
one of the main ways that they measure it is
is PCE and so based on PCE
we are currently at 2.3%
that is the number
and I said that we would get down to 2%
by the end of the year I don't know
we'll see it it
so it started the year at 2.6% in January
went up to 2.7
now it's down to 2.3 now it
it had gone down to 2.2 in April
and then may it went up to 2.3
we don't have June numbers yet so
so we'll have to see when that comes out
but it has come down point three points
we need to come down another point three in order for
this prediction to be accurate
I don't feel super confident really
about either of those the
the no recession or the 2%
in PCE by the end of the year
but at the moment it is going in that direction so
so we'll just have to wait and see
my third prediction this was more for Realtors
I have a lot of Realtors that
that listen to or or watch the show
the question I had was are there any
more big changes coming to the real estate industry
and for those of you that know
we had a lot of changes last year
I'm not gonna get into all of that
but what I said
coming into this year is that
I thought it would be mostly business as usual
this year with one major exception
and that was that
I was very confident that there would be paperwork
changes coming from the South Carolina
Association of Realtors
and not a whole lot else that was
that was really big
coming down from the National Association of Realtors
at the moment I feel like that
that this is accurate now I have to give one caveat
The National Association of Realtors
did roll out this change
and I talked to you guys about
about it on the show
they rolled out this change
that there's going to be this third way to list a house
that is neither
the full MLS with syndication to all the websites
and it's also not office exclusive
those are the two options that
most MLS's currently have
it's gonna be kind of a midway point
where you can list it on MLS
but it won't go out to the websites
it'll only be accessible to Realtors and their clients
who are plugged into the Multiple Listing Service
and then after a set period of time
then it gets syndicated out to
all of the other websites homes.com
realtor.com etcetera
etcetera that it's I
I think you have to decide whether you think that
that was a big change to me
I don't think that that was a big change in fact
Some MLS's that I've talked to or that I've heard
have said that they're not even gonna implement that
they're just gonna rebel
against the National Association of Realtors
so I don't think that that's a big change personally
with regard to paperwork absolutely I nailed that one
The South Carolina Association of Realtors
just rolled out a whole bunch of paperwork changes
and it's exactly what I thought it would
it would be they essentially
basically tweaked a lot of the language
after all the big changes that were last year
now they've started to refine
things and make it to where
it's it's clearer what's in that paperwork
and there's they even added some addendums and
and it's
it's in my opinion some very very positive changes
that the forms committee and
you know everyone else over there
at the South Carolina Association of Realtors
have done
and so so far so good
so I I think you can say
potentially
it's looking good that I'm three for three so far okay
number four I said that
on appreciation or depreciation
is that I thought we would see between
either minus one % appreciation
so negative appreciation by 1% through 2% appreciation
so basically
a 3% window was what I gave myself
between minus one % and 2% appreciation
I'm gonna share my screen again here
there's looking on YouTube
had the wrong thing pulled up
all right we always look at the median sales price
if you're on Facebook Live
I think Eric Mitchell's watching
hey Eric good to see you
good good realtor in my office
so median sales price at the moment
if we look at the 12 month median
it's right at 0% okay
now if we look at since January
I haven't completely done the math on this
but I think that we're pretty much in range
we had January was an a minus two point one % median
sales price and then we had a weird five percent
year on year uptick in February
since then it's been 1.6%
I think that this is going to be pretty close
so at the moment
I feel pretty good that that bold prediction
will probably end up in that range
now so much hinges on mortgage rates right
if mortgage rates you know
and they have come down a little bit the past
couple of weeks if they continue to come down
this appreciation will will surpass what I anticipated
so that's something that we definitely have to
definitely have to keep an eye on but
but for the time being
that's looking pretty good at the moment
but I'm not super confident on that
we'll say for for the time being I'm 4 for 4
but not super confident about that
my fifth bold prediction
was that the membership in the Greater
Greenville Association of Realtors
would go down
it was at the time that I recorded that episode
5,090 members
I'm gonna pull this up for you guys watching on YouTube
again if you're if you're on Facebook Live
you're not gonna see this
but if you're watching on YouTube
the recording that I'll release
the first full week of July
you'll see here that the membership is at 5,186
based on the these are the
the four groups that I included in that initial one
so I did not get this one and based on what I
what I know from being on the board of directors at G G
a R we are going
we are trending in the upward trajectory at the moment
in other words
we're at 51 86 it's probably gonna go higher
that's mind boggling right
if you're a realtor
that is gonna blow your mind a little bit
but at the moment
it is looking like I did not get that one
so at the moment
membership in GGR is
stronger than it was at the beginning of the year
and only getting stronger
so we will see what I don't know
this isn't something I've really tracked a whole lot in
in previous years
so I don't know if there's a seasonality to this
so I don't know if there's potential
that will end the year softer than we are currently
but that'll
that'll definitely be something that'll be interesting
and of course at the end of the year
I'll do an episode where I I actually go over okay
now that we have all the data how did I do
how did these bold predictions actually do
another one here inventory
I asked the question will inventory go up or down
and my prediction was that we would see month on month
increases in inventory until February or March
probably March and at that point
we would see the month on month increases stop
but the year on year increases
would continue until June or July
I regret to say that I did not get this one like I
I completely got destroyed by this one
I the inventory has been much
much stronger than I anticipated for this year
so again I'm sharing my screen on YouTube
we have continued to have
month on month increases in inventory
February was stronger than January
March was stronger than February
April was stronger than March
the main number I we don't have June yet
the main number is inflated
that's gonna come down that's gonna be revised
but it's I
I still believe that it's gonna be stronger than April
so so far month on month increases the entire year
and dramatic year on year increases as well
so we've got a couple of months left
for me to get half of this right
but I don't think I'm going to
I think that this is going to
our inventory situation has exploded
in comparison to what it has been
which you can see if you're looking on the chart
you can you can actually see that on here
how it is like a roller coaster going upward
and so at the moment no
I I did not get that one
and I don't think I'm gonna get that one
so we'll call it four for six
we're we're having a lot more inventory
a lot
more supply in this market
than a lot of people foresaw
and so that's a big
big story for 2025 because that's a big part of why
why does it feel soft right
there's so much data out there that indicates that
that it's a a strong market for sellers
and
and you know
I've shared with you guys a lot of that data
but this is what you have to look at is this inventory
because a lot of the data
that makes it look like it's a strong sellers
market has to do with all the new construction
homes that are selling not the resale homes
that are the homes that you care about
if you're selling a home
odds are you're not selling a brand new home
right unless you're a builder
and so that's the story there
my seventh bold prediction was that pending sales
I
well I asked the question
will pending sales continue to increase
and I said
yes that
I was predicting
pending sales to increase year on year
and every month in 2025
and then I said I
I said some other things with regard to that
I thought that this would be potentially due to
to mortgage rates moderating a bit
and I was wrong
I I was right until April
but April we had a negative print
we had negative we had pending sales were
were
minus two point four %
year on year compared to April 24
and may again
this is another number that gets revised
it'll get revised upward
but the may number is also in my opinion
after it gets revised
going to be a negative print as well
and this is another one of the interesting stories
so really what I should have predicted
I should have predicted that clothes sales
would go up every month because that has happened
we have had positive prints
year on year for closed sales
for every single month in 2025
but not for pendings
that was the thing that I didn't anticipate
and I've talked to you guys about this before
what's happening in my opinion
why pending sales
would not be strong but closed sales would be
would be strong at least in the data here
is we're seeing finally sellers and buyers having a a
a meeting of the minds
where there's not as many buyers walking away
there's not as many sellers refusing to do repairs
everyone is more interested in
in keeping a deal together
it took us a few years to get to this
point of equilibrium
where kind of everyone understood okay
the market has shifted
it's no longer this crazy seller's market
it's also not a buyer's market right
there was a stretch where buyers were like
ooh is this a buyer's market
and you would see all these
you know doom and gloom posts about oh
at 2008 all over again
well there might be some pockets of Texas
Florida
some other places where it is kind of like that
where there is a a
a market that has shifted to a buyer's market
but not in Greenville that would that would be
there's a lot still that has to happen for it to truly
truly be a buyers market
I'm not saying it won't happen
it just hasn't happened yet
and so the pending sales numbers
very interesting that we had
we started the year with three straight
positive year on year months
but it has gone down the past two months
fewer people are going under contract
than previous years even though more
more homes are being sold than the year prior
cash transactions versus financing
I said oh so I'm I'm 4 for 7 so far okay
with three straight that I missed
cash transactions versus financing
I said I think we'll see
cash transactions between 21 to 23% of closings
which is a slight decrease year on year
so let's look at that
I've got the multiple Listing service pulled up
everything that's sold year to date
we have 868 sales year to date
let's look at how many of those were cash
1924 all right let's do some quick math here
1924 divided by what was that number
eight 68
sorry not 8
68 8 8 6
8 8,868 you come up with 21.69% so far
I've nailed this one
I said between 21 and 23% of closings
that so far is looking really good so on average
just slightly more than a fifth of transactions
in the greater Greenville market
are cash transactions
just a hair above a fifth of them
I also asked here Will Greenville County Council make
onerous restrictions on development
I said yes
I'm quite confident that they will impose restrictions
up to this point that they haven't
this one we we still need to monitor this one
but at the moment I'm gonna say that I
that I did get this one
this one's looking good so far right
I'm five for eight
I'm gonna say that I am six for nine with this one
so what Greenville
County Council is doing right now is a lot of impact
fees and that is the thing that they are obsessed with
impact fees what's an impact fee
an impact fee is essentially a tax to a builder to
quote unquote improve infrastructure
I say quote unquote improve infrastructure
because a lot of times
impact fees don't go towards that
but that is what they are marketed
by Greenville County Council as
while we're doing this
this is how we're gonna improve the sewer
infrastructure
this is how we're gonna improve the road infrastructure
the the problem is the impact fees
are not nearly enough in order to do that
because if they hike the impact fees and charge the
the developers as much as they would have to
to actually improve roads
developers would just say yeah
forget that we're out and you know
again in terms of sewer infrastructure things of that nature
a lot of these communities that are being developed
often times they're on septic
so they have even imposed some things
and they're trying to impose some more restrictions
on septic communities as well
so long story short Greenville County Council
is doing everything
they can in order to restrict development
without saying no development
and you might like that if you're a listener
just understand
and because I know that a lot of people like that
a lot of people are just like
we have too many too many houses
too many people here
the problem is that you either grow or you stagnate
right and so
everyone wants there to be more
cool things to do in Greenville
but for there to be more cool things to do
there have to be more workers to
support those cool things well
where are those workers gonna live
so you know let's say that we have a bunch more parks well
those parks need to be maintained
where are those workers who are maintaining the parks
that's a blue collar job right
where are those workers gonna live
let's say that we have
we build out the infrastructure for and
and and have more fire departments
more police where are they going to live
and so this is the these are the
sorts of things that people aren't thinking about
when they're so focused on wanting to stop development
but well we need more more parks
not more apartments right
that was a
that was a tagline that was used a few years ago in
in county council race
yeah the problem is that the
that the people maintaining the parks
need the apartment to live in right and so
these are the things that are not being thought about
generally speaking and I'm not
you know just wanting to make fun of
of county council this is
they're hearing this from their constituents as well
And you know so I understand why they are succumbing to
to this thought process
because their constituents that voted for them
did give them a mandate
now is that mandate
short sighted in my opinion yes
extremely short sighted but
but that that's something
I believe I've gotten that one right so far
by the end of the year I'll
I'll compile a list you know
when we go over this one more time
I'll compile a list of the things that Greenville
County Council did for the year
and you guys can decide for yourself
whether I got that one right
but I think so far I'm 6 for nine No.10
I said will sellers stop paying buyer agents right
this was a question that I was getting a lot
when last year when the commission structure changed
And long story short is that
there there have been some very unique situations
where I've seen sellers not be willing to
to pay for a buyer agent
so I'll give you an example here
I have a I'm actually involved in a situation
where I'm representing a a seller client who
long story short they befriended someone
in their community that wanted to buy their house
and without me knowing this and
and this isn't my preference
I would have preferred to have been involved on
on the front end but whatever
without me knowing it they kind of worked out
an arrangement that you know here's the price
this works there's not gonna be any buyer agent
fee or anything like that
and then after they'd already worked that out
it was like okay
Stan now you come along and you you handle this well then
after I started to do all my disclosures
with the unrepresented party right
cause I represented the seller
the first thing you have to do in this situation is
disclose everything
and specifically
I have to disclose I'm representing the seller
I'm not representing you
the buyer and you have the option
to be represented as is your legal right
well after I did that talk the buyer said yeah
actually I do want to be represented
this doesn't sound like a good situation
where it's like one party
has a fiduciary but I don't
and so long story short we were able to work it out
but the seller is not paying for the buyer agent
in this instance
that is about the only example that I found of this
because the reality is that most buyers can't afford
to to pay for their buyer agent
and so this is a conversation I have with sellers
sometimes I'll explain to them listen
it's up to you
whether you want to compensate a buyer agent
or whether you want to offer
any sort of compensation to a buyer agent
just understand
that the buyer is interested in your home
they might not be able to afford their buyer agent
So that's something that you just need to be prepared for
you might be limiting the pool of buyers that can
that can come through your house
that's entirely up to you
and I will still market the house
to the best of my abilities
and try to get it sold and
and find a buyer that can
afford for their buyer agent
so that you don't have to come out of pocket for that
but just be prepared
that you might get some push back
you might get some
some negative feedback from some people
cause what happens is I list a house
I start getting
you know text messages from agents saying hey
is the seller offering any buyer agent commission
if my answer is no
oftentimes I either don't get a response or
there is like a a more back and forth and like
you know okay well
can we work this out some way
you know it will they reconsider
and so that's something that people just have to keep in mind
but by and large
that's the
the situation has been that people still understand
that they need a buyer agent
real estate transactions are so complicated right now
I just gave you an example right
that that of a of a buyer like and
and to be clear even for an unrepresented party
so I can represent a seller
a buyer comes along and wants to make an offer
even though I'm not representing them
I can still perform what's called ministerial acts
I can still if they want to make an offer
I can write up the offer for them
I just can't provide them advice
cause I'm not representing them
and here's a
here's a party that they immediately recognize
this is a bad deal for me
and they're paying out of pocket for their buyer agent
because they see the value of that
and that's by and large the way
almost every buyer feels right
and sellers are understanding that
by and large as well
so those the the compensation structure and
and all of that has changed
but for the most part
buyer agents are
are still still getting paid as they normally have
just there's a few more little hoops
that we have to go through
in order to communicate it
in order to make it work
because we're no longer allowed to advertise that
directly in the listing
so in my opinion so far
my mid year look at the bowl predictions
I am 7 for 10
and I feel I feel pretty good about that right
last year I feel like I was like five and a/2 out of 10
something like that
so I'm improving my stats
I need to I need to keep this going and
and and hopefully if you know
maybe there will be a year when I will be 10 out of 10
but you know what
these predictions are bold for a reason
I don't just go in there you know
I could easily make predictions that I'm like
very confident are going to hit
I don't do that I try to give you guys the good stuff
so that's it for today's episode
thank you so much for listening
if you're on Facebook Live
thank you guys for watching as well
thank you to everyone that has liked the show
subscribed all those good things
if you haven't
please do it so you don't miss future episodes
if you need a realtor in the Greenville area
let me know I'm your guy
and until then
I hope you guys sober up right
from the July 4th holiday
if you haven't already
but I hope you guys are doing great
have a great summer
gonna keep providing you guys content all summer long
and until then I hope you guys stay safe
and we will talk again next time