Hello everyone and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville South Carolina I'm your host as always Stan McCune Realtor right here in Greenville South Carolina you can find all of my contact information in the show notes need to reach out to me for any of your local real estate needs just a reminder as always please you can like the show now if you're watching on Facebook Live I'm doing this as a Facebook live as well leave a little comment I'm not gonna be able to reply in real time cause I'm recording this for my actual show but if you like it you're listening to this on YouTube or on Spotify Apple whatever leave a comment or like it or subscribe any of those good things make sure you don't miss future episodes

Raph if you're watching or listening I don't know I don't know if he if he watches every episode you'll notice a different background my office is in the process of being renovated and I'm going to have a natural background soon so not a green screen so the green screen is gone currently just a brown wall behind me but that's going to look a lot more aesthetic here in the future and today of course it was Independence Day I'm wearing little patriotic colors little red white and blue for you guys that are that are watching on Facebook Live or watching on YouTube and my wife is calling me right now so that's fun hopefully she doesn't need me because it's gonna be a minute before I'm gonna be able to answer that call but hope you guys had a great 4th of July had a fun time cooking out drinking sitting at the pool getting in the pool a little chilly actually at my at my pool that I have we don't get a ton of sun this time of year just we've got very tall trees in my property so anyway hope you guys had a great time but I want to I've been looking forward to this episode for a while I want to look back at the bold predictions that I made at the beginning of the year and see exactly how we're doing how are we tracking so far with these bold predictions because last year I I do the bold predictions every year last year I wasn't super happy with how that went I I I'm usually pretty good at predicting stuff did not do a great job last year so I wanna see at least midway point of this year how is it going so far so here's what I've got for you guys I've got the 10 bold predictions that I made at the beginning of the year and we're just gonna go through them and see how we're tracking so far and this will help you guys to see what's going on in the market as well so the first bold prediction I had was with regard to mortgage rates I said that mortgage rates would remain above 6% Per Mortgage News Daily for the entire year for the entirety of 2025 despite you know what was happening in tariffs the bond market whatever the Federal Reserve was doing all of these different things I was very confident there were a lot of people that thought oh mortgage rates for sure will go into the fives by the end of the year I predicted that that would not happen now if you're watching this on YouTube I'm sorry I can't share this with the Facebook Live but I'm gonna share with you my screen here and you can see mortgage rates have in fact per Mortgage News Daily been above 6% for the entire year they even went above seven percent a couple of times this year so at the moment we're really tracking on that now there is a mortgage lender who likes to troll some of my Facebook post when I talk about mortgage rates and tell me that I need to be a licensed mortgage officer lender in order to be able to share this data that's completely not true so stop trolling you know that that's not true I'm just reading off of Mortgage News Daily what their aggregated average rates are and of course if you're interested in buying a home you need to talk to a lender to find out exactly what your rate might be I'm not telling you that your rate would be anything based on the way these rates are currently but based on that one website which is a pretty well known reputable website aggregates mortgage rates all over the country we've been above 6% and that's the metric that I said that I would use for determining whether rates were above 6% for the year so far so good right cause at the moment the average is 6.75 it would take probably a recession quite frankly in in our economy for that number to go below 6% by the end of the year so I don't see that happening I think that I'm I'm on track or I was on track when I made that prediction second prediction I said will we have a recession and will inflation go to 2% for the year right these are two if you're into the you know financial stuff or or economic stuff these are two questions that a lot of people have had for a long time and my prediction back in January was that we would have no recession and that inflation would return to at or below 2% by the fourth quarter so far so good the the data on the economy is is super interesting right now I'm gonna share my screen again on YouTube the economic data is so interesting we just had a a jobs report that most people are saying was a really strong jobs report but it was propped up by government jobs okay so it's hard to really know what to take of that but generally speaking there is a not a clear obvious path to us going into a recession at this point by the end of the year I still think that that's a pretty good prediction with regard to inflation the metric that I used in January and that I'm going to continue to use is PCE I'm not gonna get into the into the weeds on what that is but it's the personal consumption expenditures price index and long story short that is really one of the Fed's primary ways that they measure inflation there's a lot of different ways to measure it one of the main ways that they measure it is is PCE and so based on PCE we are currently at 2.3% that is the number and I said that we would get down to 2% by the end of the year I don't know we'll see it it so it started the year at 2.6% in January went up to 2.7 now it's down to 2.3 now it it had gone down to 2.2 in April and then may it went up to 2.3 we don't have June numbers yet so so we'll have to see when that comes out but it has come down point three points we need to come down another point three in order for this prediction to be accurate I don't feel super confident really about either of those the the no recession or the 2% in PCE by the end of the year but at the moment it is going in that direction so so we'll just have to wait and see my third prediction this was more for Realtors I have a lot of Realtors that that listen to or or watch the show the question I had was are there any more big changes coming to the real estate industry and for those of you that know we had a lot of changes last year I'm not gonna get into all of that but what I said coming into this year is that I thought it would be mostly business as usual this year with one major exception and that was that I was very confident that there would be paperwork changes coming from the South Carolina Association of Realtors and not a whole lot else that was that was really big coming down from the National Association of Realtors at the moment I feel like that that this is accurate now I have to give one caveat The National Association of Realtors did roll out this change and I talked to you guys about about it on the show they rolled out this change that there's going to be this third way to list a house that is neither the full MLS with syndication to all the websites and it's also not office exclusive those are the two options that most MLS's currently have it's gonna be kind of a midway point where you can list it on MLS but it won't go out to the websites it'll only be accessible to Realtors and their clients who are plugged into the Multiple Listing Service and then after a set period of time then it gets syndicated out to all of the other websites homes.com realtor.com etcetera etcetera that it's I I think you have to decide whether you think that that was a big change to me I don't think that that was a big change in fact Some MLS's that I've talked to or that I've heard have said that they're not even gonna implement that they're just gonna rebel against the National Association of Realtors so I don't think that that's a big change personally with regard to paperwork absolutely I nailed that one The South Carolina Association of Realtors just rolled out a whole bunch of paperwork changes and it's exactly what I thought it would it would be they essentially basically tweaked a lot of the language after all the big changes that were last year now they've started to refine things and make it to where it's it's clearer what's in that paperwork and there's they even added some addendums and and it's it's in my opinion some very very positive changes that the forms committee and you know everyone else over there at the South Carolina Association of Realtors have done and so so far so good so I I think you can say potentially it's looking good that I'm three for three so far okay number four I said that on appreciation or depreciation is that I thought we would see between either minus one % appreciation so negative appreciation by 1% through 2% appreciation so basically a 3% window was what I gave myself between minus one % and 2% appreciation I'm gonna share my screen again here there's looking on YouTube had the wrong thing pulled up all right we always look at the median sales price if you're on Facebook Live I think Eric Mitchell's watching hey Eric good to see you good good realtor in my office so median sales price at the moment if we look at the 12 month median it's right at 0% okay now if we look at since January I haven't completely done the math on this but I think that we're pretty much in range we had January was an a minus two point one % median sales price and then we had a weird five percent year on year uptick in February since then it's been 1.6% I think that this is going to be pretty close so at the moment I feel pretty good that that bold prediction will probably end up in that range now so much hinges on mortgage rates right if mortgage rates you know and they have come down a little bit the past couple of weeks if they continue to come down this appreciation will will surpass what I anticipated so that's something that we definitely have to definitely have to keep an eye on but but for the time being that's looking pretty good at the moment but I'm not super confident on that we'll say for for the time being I'm 4 for 4 but not super confident about that my fifth bold prediction was that the membership in the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors would go down it was at the time that I recorded that episode 5,090 members I'm gonna pull this up for you guys watching on YouTube again if you're if you're on Facebook Live you're not gonna see this but if you're watching on YouTube the recording that I'll release the first full week of July you'll see here that the membership is at 5,186 based on the these are the the four groups that I included in that initial one so I did not get this one and based on what I what I know from being on the board of directors at G G a R we are going we are trending in the upward trajectory at the moment in other words we're at 51 86 it's probably gonna go higher that's mind boggling right if you're a realtor that is gonna blow your mind a little bit but at the moment it is looking like I did not get that one so at the moment membership in GGR is stronger than it was at the beginning of the year and only getting stronger so we will see what I don't know this isn't something I've really tracked a whole lot in in previous years so I don't know if there's a seasonality to this so I don't know if there's potential that will end the year softer than we are currently but that'll that'll definitely be something that'll be interesting and of course at the end of the year I'll do an episode where I I actually go over okay now that we have all the data how did I do how did these bold predictions actually do another one here inventory I asked the question will inventory go up or down and my prediction was that we would see month on month increases in inventory until February or March probably March and at that point we would see the month on month increases stop but the year on year increases would continue until June or July I regret to say that I did not get this one like I I completely got destroyed by this one I the inventory has been much much stronger than I anticipated for this year so again I'm sharing my screen on YouTube we have continued to have month on month increases in inventory February was stronger than January March was stronger than February April was stronger than March the main number I we don't have June yet the main number is inflated that's gonna come down that's gonna be revised but it's I I still believe that it's gonna be stronger than April so so far month on month increases the entire year and dramatic year on year increases as well so we've got a couple of months left for me to get half of this right but I don't think I'm going to I think that this is going to our inventory situation has exploded in comparison to what it has been which you can see if you're looking on the chart you can you can actually see that on here how it is like a roller coaster going upward and so at the moment no I I did not get that one and I don't think I'm gonna get that one so we'll call it four for six we're we're having a lot more inventory a lot more supply in this market than a lot of people foresaw and so that's a big big story for 2025 because that's a big part of why why does it feel soft right there's so much data out there that indicates that that it's a a strong market for sellers and and you know I've shared with you guys a lot of that data but this is what you have to look at is this inventory because a lot of the data that makes it look like it's a strong sellers market has to do with all the new construction homes that are selling not the resale homes that are the homes that you care about if you're selling a home odds are you're not selling a brand new home right unless you're a builder and so that's the story there my seventh bold prediction was that pending sales I well I asked the question will pending sales continue to increase and I said yes that I was predicting pending sales to increase year on year and every month in 2025 and then I said I I said some other things with regard to that I thought that this would be potentially due to to mortgage rates moderating a bit and I was wrong I I was right until April but April we had a negative print we had negative we had pending sales were were minus two point four % year on year compared to April 24 and may again this is another number that gets revised it'll get revised upward but the may number is also in my opinion after it gets revised going to be a negative print as well and this is another one of the interesting stories so really what I should have predicted I should have predicted that clothes sales would go up every month because that has happened we have had positive prints year on year for closed sales for every single month in 2025 but not for pendings that was the thing that I didn't anticipate and I've talked to you guys about this before what's happening in my opinion why pending sales would not be strong but closed sales would be would be strong at least in the data here is we're seeing finally sellers and buyers having a a a meeting of the minds where there's not as many buyers walking away there's not as many sellers refusing to do repairs everyone is more interested in in keeping a deal together it took us a few years to get to this point of equilibrium where kind of everyone understood okay the market has shifted it's no longer this crazy seller's market it's also not a buyer's market right there was a stretch where buyers were like ooh is this a buyer's market and you would see all these you know doom and gloom posts about oh at 2008 all over again well there might be some pockets of Texas Florida some other places where it is kind of like that where there is a a a market that has shifted to a buyer's market but not in Greenville that would that would be there's a lot still that has to happen for it to truly truly be a buyers market I'm not saying it won't happen it just hasn't happened yet and so the pending sales numbers very interesting that we had we started the year with three straight positive year on year months but it has gone down the past two months fewer people are going under contract than previous years even though more more homes are being sold than the year prior cash transactions versus financing I said oh so I'm I'm 4 for 7 so far okay with three straight that I missed cash transactions versus financing I said I think we'll see cash transactions between 21 to 23% of closings which is a slight decrease year on year so let's look at that I've got the multiple Listing service pulled up everything that's sold year to date we have 868 sales year to date let's look at how many of those were cash 1924 all right let's do some quick math here 1924 divided by what was that number eight 68 sorry not 8 68 8 8 6 8 8,868 you come up with 21.69% so far I've nailed this one I said between 21 and 23% of closings that so far is looking really good so on average just slightly more than a fifth of transactions in the greater Greenville market are cash transactions just a hair above a fifth of them I also asked here Will Greenville County Council make onerous restrictions on development I said yes I'm quite confident that they will impose restrictions up to this point that they haven't this one we we still need to monitor this one but at the moment I'm gonna say that I that I did get this one this one's looking good so far right I'm five for eight I'm gonna say that I am six for nine with this one so what Greenville County Council is doing right now is a lot of impact fees and that is the thing that they are obsessed with impact fees what's an impact fee an impact fee is essentially a tax to a builder to quote unquote improve infrastructure I say quote unquote improve infrastructure because a lot of times impact fees don't go towards that but that is what they are marketed by Greenville County Council as while we're doing this this is how we're gonna improve the sewer infrastructure this is how we're gonna improve the road infrastructure the the problem is the impact fees are not nearly enough in order to do that because if they hike the impact fees and charge the the developers as much as they would have to to actually improve roads developers would just say yeah forget that we're out and you know again in terms of sewer infrastructure things of that nature a lot of these communities that are being developed often times they're on septic so they have even imposed some things and they're trying to impose some more restrictions on septic communities as well so long story short Greenville County Council is doing everything they can in order to restrict development without saying no development and you might like that if you're a listener just understand and because I know that a lot of people like that a lot of people are just like we have too many too many houses too many people here the problem is that you either grow or you stagnate right and so everyone wants there to be more cool things to do in Greenville but for there to be more cool things to do there have to be more workers to support those cool things well where are those workers gonna live so you know let's say that we have a bunch more parks well those parks need to be maintained where are those workers who are maintaining the parks that's a blue collar job right where are those workers gonna live let's say that we have we build out the infrastructure for and and and have more fire departments more police where are they going to live and so this is the these are the sorts of things that people aren't thinking about when they're so focused on wanting to stop development but well we need more more parks not more apartments right that was a that was a tagline that was used a few years ago in in county council race yeah the problem is that the that the people maintaining the parks need the apartment to live in right and so these are the things that are not being thought about generally speaking and I'm not you know just wanting to make fun of of county council this is they're hearing this from their constituents as well And you know so I understand why they are succumbing to to this thought process because their constituents that voted for them did give them a mandate now is that mandate short sighted in my opinion yes extremely short sighted but but that that's something I believe I've gotten that one right so far by the end of the year I'll I'll compile a list you know when we go over this one more time I'll compile a list of the things that Greenville County Council did for the year and you guys can decide for yourself whether I got that one right but I think so far I'm 6 for nine No.10 I said will sellers stop paying buyer agents right this was a question that I was getting a lot when last year when the commission structure changed And long story short is that there there have been some very unique situations where I've seen sellers not be willing to to pay for a buyer agent so I'll give you an example here I have a I'm actually involved in a situation where I'm representing a a seller client who long story short they befriended someone in their community that wanted to buy their house and without me knowing this and and this isn't my preference I would have preferred to have been involved on on the front end but whatever without me knowing it they kind of worked out an arrangement that you know here's the price this works there's not gonna be any buyer agent fee or anything like that and then after they'd already worked that out it was like okay Stan now you come along and you you handle this well then after I started to do all my disclosures with the unrepresented party right cause I represented the seller the first thing you have to do in this situation is disclose everything and specifically I have to disclose I'm representing the seller I'm not representing you the buyer and you have the option to be represented as is your legal right well after I did that talk the buyer said yeah actually I do want to be represented this doesn't sound like a good situation where it's like one party has a fiduciary but I don't and so long story short we were able to work it out but the seller is not paying for the buyer agent in this instance that is about the only example that I found of this because the reality is that most buyers can't afford to to pay for their buyer agent and so this is a conversation I have with sellers sometimes I'll explain to them listen it's up to you whether you want to compensate a buyer agent or whether you want to offer any sort of compensation to a buyer agent just understand that the buyer is interested in your home they might not be able to afford their buyer agent So that's something that you just need to be prepared for you might be limiting the pool of buyers that can that can come through your house that's entirely up to you and I will still market the house to the best of my abilities and try to get it sold and and find a buyer that can afford for their buyer agent so that you don't have to come out of pocket for that but just be prepared that you might get some push back you might get some some negative feedback from some people cause what happens is I list a house I start getting you know text messages from agents saying hey is the seller offering any buyer agent commission if my answer is no oftentimes I either don't get a response or there is like a a more back and forth and like you know okay well can we work this out some way you know it will they reconsider and so that's something that people just have to keep in mind but by and large that's the the situation has been that people still understand that they need a buyer agent real estate transactions are so complicated right now I just gave you an example right that that of a of a buyer like and and to be clear even for an unrepresented party so I can represent a seller a buyer comes along and wants to make an offer even though I'm not representing them I can still perform what's called ministerial acts I can still if they want to make an offer I can write up the offer for them I just can't provide them advice cause I'm not representing them and here's a here's a party that they immediately recognize this is a bad deal for me and they're paying out of pocket for their buyer agent because they see the value of that and that's by and large the way almost every buyer feels right and sellers are understanding that by and large as well so those the the compensation structure and and all of that has changed but for the most part buyer agents are are still still getting paid as they normally have just there's a few more little hoops that we have to go through in order to communicate it in order to make it work because we're no longer allowed to advertise that directly in the listing so in my opinion so far my mid year look at the bowl predictions I am 7 for 10 and I feel I feel pretty good about that right last year I feel like I was like five and a/2 out of 10 something like that so I'm improving my stats I need to I need to keep this going and and and hopefully if you know maybe there will be a year when I will be 10 out of 10 but you know what these predictions are bold for a reason I don't just go in there you know I could easily make predictions that I'm like very confident are going to hit I don't do that I try to give you guys the good stuff so that's it for today's episode thank you so much for listening if you're on Facebook Live thank you guys for watching as well thank you to everyone that has liked the show subscribed all those good things if you haven't please do it so you don't miss future episodes if you need a realtor in the Greenville area let me know I'm your guy and until then I hope you guys sober up right from the July 4th holiday if you haven't already but I hope you guys are doing great have a great summer gonna keep providing you guys content all summer long and until then I hope you guys stay safe and we will talk again next time