hello everyone and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always
Stan McCune Realtor right here in Greenville
you can find all of my contact information in the show
notes if you need to reach out to me
for any of your real estate needs
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today we are going to dig right into the
what's now called monthly indicators
that the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors
puts out
now interestingly as I'm recording this on July 15th
the CPI inflation report just came out
it was kind of in line with expectations
on the higher side in some things
on the lower side in some things
caused a slight bond sell off
nothing too dramatic
it is at the moment it's not a positive for mortgage
rates but it won't be a huge negative
so for those of you that are interested
in that kind of thing
let's see Mortgage News
Daily currently has the 30 year fixed rate
mortgage on average at 6.85
so that'll probably tick up to 6.88 as
to 6.9 by the end of the day is
is what I would imagine
so let's dig right into these monthly indicators
from G J R
new listings right at the top here
new listings up nine and a half percent
so we've been talking
a lot about how the new listings
data has been coming in really
really hot since January was down
but the rest of the year so far has been hot
June another hot month
9.5% increase year over year in new listings
now that wasn't as big of an increase
as the last few months
and it was a big month on month decline from 27 0
1 in may to 2397 in June so
what's interesting about that
is that sometimes this new listings data can peak
later in the year
we've seen this particularly in more recent years
that the peak has been
we had this weird crown formation in 2023
but off it in in more recent years
oftentimes it's been later in
in the year
that we've seen the highest new listings data
but may appears like it most
likely will end up being the highest
month of the year for new listings
and it's just gonna keep coming down from here
and so when we talk about inventory a little bit later
just keep that in the back of your mind
because that's gonna impact obviously inventory
pending sales this number is always
low for the most recent month pending sales
for the month of may
which should be accurate now after being revised
I told you guys may would come in low
not as low as it looked
if we went when we went over this last month
but may was revised up to 1,465 pending sales
which is a big decrease from
from may of last year which was 1,577
so that is a 7.1% decrease in pending sales
after we've had many
many months of a positive prints on pending sales
may was the first in a very long time
where it went negative
and I think June after it gets revised will also
be negative
maybe not quite as large of a difference as
as may was year on year
but I think that June is going to continue that trend
now we may June end up
may end up being higher than may month on month
that that's gonna be interesting
it's gonna be very very close
but long story short pending sales
are starting to show some negative prints
year on year there is
a less activity year on year is what that is telling me
right less buyer activity
that being said closed sales are still coming in hot
okay we've been positive all year
we're continuing to be positive
7.6% increase year on year in closed sales
for the month of June
it went up to 1689 from 1570
now pending sales dropping the way it is
you have to think that the closed sales will follow
right so this might be we
we might start to see some negative prints
from here on out is kind of
is kind of what I'm saying
I don't know
because some of these numbers have been a little wonky
Right the close sales number has been higher than expected
on multiple different levels
even though
months of inventory has gone up so
so we have to combine all of these different
different data points together
and basically when you do all of that
when you factor them all in
basically the market is slowing down
but there's still all this pent up demand
and so you've got more supply
still coming on the market than demand
but demand is still pent up
so it's still just kind of spilling out
you know into some of these numbers
but it does seem like we're in for a
a slower summer just based on the pending sales data
so it'll be interesting to see
it because the
the one thing and we've talked about this before
that could keep these close sales up
is if fewer homes that are under contract
fall out from being under contract
and we have been seeing that
that more contracts are actually getting to closing
than we've had the past few years
days on market until sale went up a little bit
went to 43 year on year
that's a 4.9% increase
it is a month on month decrease
but that is seasonal we
we typically see
every year these summer months that the days on market
bottom out so the 4.9% increase from 41 to 43 days
on market
from June 24 to 25
I don't really think that's super noteworthy
basically the
the homes are taking about the same amount of time
slightly longer
but about the same amount of time to go under contract
as they did a year ago roughly one and a/2 months
median sales price
we hit the highest that we've ever hit in
in the greater Greenville area market 330,000
and this is right the big takeaway from this
is that people keep waiting for prices to fall
well
now June 2025 was up 2.9% year on year over June 2024
so it went from 320,000 and change to 330,000
that 330
being the highest
month that we have ever had for median sales price
in the greater Greenville area
so
so that's huge right that's
that's telling us that despite all of the softening
we have now seen
since February had a 5% increase year on year
we've now seen March was 1.6%
April was 1.6% May was 2.4%
June was 2.9%
we're seeing stronger appreciation numbers and
and the median sales price is not exactly appreciation
but it's one of the closest ways that we can measure
you know approximately what's happening
this is not going to
this doesn't mean that every single house
in the greater Greenville area
it now has gained 2.9% in value year over year
that's not what this means okay
what this does this is just aggregate data
so we can loosely say that home values are 2.9%
or that prices more accurately right
than home values
prices are 2.9% higher than they were a year ago
that doesn't inherently
mean that your home value has gone up that much
so hopefully that makes sense to you guys
but regardless this is
this is a big indicator of what's happening
and not a good indicator
from the standpoint of housing affordability
if you're a seller in this market
you certainly don't want to see this
this number going down
but if you're a buyer which a lot of people are seeing
this going up is not a positive
the average sales price
did not hit a high
but it did increase ever so slightly though
this is the a pretty small increase for the average
remember we don't talk much about the average
cause it's skewed by
homes on the on the really high end of things
so if we just have a bunch of
multi million dollar homes sell in one month
that's gonna skew the average
it's not gonna skew the median
at least not nearly as much
so I don't focus much on the average
but if you're interested the average is 405,249
up slightly from the 402,424 print that we had in June
of 24 percent of list price received
this is a percentage found when dividing a property
sales price by its most recent list price
then taking
the average for all properties sold in a given month
not a selling not accounting for seller concessions
okay so this doesn't factor in
if a seller is paying closing cost
or compensating a buyer agent or anything like that
it's not factoring any of that in
this is just the top line number
and it's the list price divided by the top line
sold price okay
98.5% is the number
which is a slight decrease from 98.7%
last June of 2024
so if you've got a house listed for $100,000
you can roughly expect as a seller to get 98,500
and then from that you would subtract out the
the potential concessions
realtor fees
closing costs that you're paying to assist the buyer
things of that nature
but 98.5% that is just right there in line with
with historical norms
there is really nothing noteworthy about that
there's really nothing noteworthy about it being
slightly declined from last year
It it's really unhealthy
when this gets into the Ninety Nines
we really don't like to see it in the Ninety Nines
if you're looking on YouTube
you can see that 2023 June was
was 99.1% that wasn't good
you know that was
that was hurtful even before that it was really high
there were there were times where
during the pandemic where it was over 100%
that was insane
so really the comfortable market
this number is really between 96 and 98
so it's even a little bit high
but it is in line with relatively speaking
with historical norms
housing affordability index
this is this is one way that we
we track housing affordability
this number bakes in
the median income
mortgage rates and the median sales price
so it bakes that all together
comes up with a number
and you want it to be 100 or higher
and that would indicate that the median family
can afford the median priced home
and that number unfortunately is
is not at 100 it's at 92 currently and that did drop
two points from the 94 that it was in June of 2024
so the housing market as it stands today
is less affordable than it was a year ago
when you factor everything into the equation incomes
mortgage rates etcetera
home prices etcetera
So housing affordability is going in the wrong direction
we've talked a lot about this
housing affordability
is going to continue to go in the wrong
in the wrong direction
At the only way for this number to go right now above 100
again we would have to see mortgage rates
really come down a lot
we'd probably need to see them come down
into the low sixes they're in the high sixes right now
maybe even lower than that but
but it would have to come down substantially
and you can see that actually in the data
so September of 2024
in September of 2024
mortgage rates went down to
6.11% per Mortgage News Daily
at one point
and so guess what happened
our housing affordability index
went all the way up to 1:04
for the month of September 2024
due to mortgage rates coming down into the
into the low sixes
so even though home prices are going up incomes are
are going up
but not tremendously fast
just kind of generally speaking the
the labor market isn't that strong
all of these are resulting in
in in this number that was randomly high in September
now it's come all the way down to 92 in June
inventory of homes for sale
this number is always high
for the most recent month
but the long story short
is that inventory is continuing
continuing to go up so last month got revised to 5,444
that is a 30% year on year increase in inventory
that's a big jump
now June
I'm not sure what it's gonna be revised down as
but it's going to be another substantial jump
I think I think it's gonna be
revised down into probably the high five thousands
and June of 2024 was 4,354
so we're gonna have another month of roughly 30%
increase in inventory
and if anything happened that caused demand shock right
let's say that
that suddenly mortgage rates started to go way up
or let's say that suddenly
we were hit with a big recession
we would a lot of sellers would have a lot of problems
right they right now there's pretty stable demand again
it there's pent up demand
and that could be released too right
if mortgage rates came down
and came down in the absence of a recession
we could see a a huge spilling out of
of activity and some believe that we'll even see that
even if we do go into a recession
that causes mortgage rates to go down
that maybe a recession doesn't even matter
it's just rates and I tend to think that
there's probably some truth to that
but a lot of homes on the market
the most that we've had on the market
now I'm not gonna I'm not gonna look at this line
but we're probably we're probably close to 6,000
we've not been at or above 6,000
homes on the market since 2,011
like that is we're approaching 2,011 numbers
we were still in the housing recession back then
so that tells me a lot of homes on the market right now
and so you've got options if you're a buyer now
you might not be happy about the options
they're all too expensive
but you do have
more options than historically that you would have
now that being said the month supply of inventory is
is still relatively low may got revised
down to 3.9 June will also get revised down
probably in the low fours after it's all said and done
that's still an increase
we've not been in the fours for quite some time
and I've been telling you guys
if we started to get to the mid to high fours
that would really start to
really really start to feel like a
a buyer's market at that point
and I wanna elaborate on that just real quick
the reason why
why I don't think that the old metric that you should
look for
six months of inventory before a market flips from a
seller's market to a buyer's market
why
we need to be looking more at the four and a/2 to five
month range is because of all of the new home sales
right so there are
there has been disproportionately
more new home sales than existing home sales
really in the entire country
for the past two to three years and that's because the
the builders are offering all these interest rate
mortgage rate buy downs
all sorts of incentives to convince people
to buy their homes
and so the end result is that even though this
this you know month supply number appears low
it's low because a
a lot of homes that are being bought right now
are new construction homes
while a lot of homes that are just sitting
are the existing homes
and so the sellers that are just like me and you right
average
Jimmy's and Joe's that are just selling a home
they're not selling a new home
they are selling an existing home
and so because of that
we need to account for the fact that existing homes
are taking a lot longer to sell
than normal I ran some data for this before the show
I need to do some more digging into it to
to kind of see
you know how accurate it is but basically
I came up with that that
new homes which typically take much longer to sell
than existing homes weren't taking
a whole lot longer to sell than existing homes
and so basically if you're a home seller
you're competing with new construction
in a way that you never have before
and so it
it's going to start if
if inventory gets up to the point where we're at
you know 4 point truly at 4.5
I know it says 4.6 for June
but that's gonna get revised way down probably to 4.1
4.2 maybe
but if we start to get to 4.5 to 5
I'm telling you right now
I'm telling you guys right now
it is going to feel like a
a very recessive
market okay
it's gonna feel like a
a buyer's market is my prediction
so we'll see if that happens
I'm not gonna say that would be a good or a bad thing
right because it's talking about both sides of my mouth
it'd be good for buyers it would be bad for sellers
that's just reality but
affordability has to has to fix itself some way
that's one of the ways it can do it
it's not the best way right
cause it leaves a bunch of sellers out in the cold and
and usually foreclosures follow and things like that
so we hope that that doesn't happen
but you never know I'll be here the whole time
So you will be finding out in real time what's happening
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