[SPEAKER_03]: Hey everybody, JJ Cooper Jeff Ponds another prospect podcast.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, it is trade deadline week, but we're in the middle of it.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're recording this on Tuesday night to air on Wednesday.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're not going to focus on trade deadlines this week.

[SPEAKER_03]: We'll come back and kind of look at when the dust clears probably next week on that.

[SPEAKER_03]: This week, what we're going to look at is prospects who got off to great starts and have really started to struggle in the last two months and prospects have got off to slow starts and have really turned it on the last two months.

[SPEAKER_03]: Some prospects that maybe if you haven't been paying as close attention

[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe you haven't noticed like, oh, someone says really turned it on or oh, so I thought it was having a great year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Actually, no, he's not having a great year so far or so any more.

[SPEAKER_03]: So we are going to dive straight into that and we're going to start with the positive.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're going to start with the guys who, if you were watching an April and May, you may have been like, oh, this guy looks lost.

[SPEAKER_03]: And here we are now and maybe that prospects a little bit has found himself now.

[SPEAKER_03]: And there are a couple of white socks on this list.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not all bad news for the white socks.

[SPEAKER_03]: We will start with Jeff with Colson McGumry, who, to his credit, was one looked lost last year in Triple A Charlotte, started out this year even worse, where he ended up being sent back down to the complex league.

[SPEAKER_03]: It was a brief stop.

[SPEAKER_03]: Came back up to AAA, hit and AAA.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now he's hitting in the majors.

[SPEAKER_03]: As we, you know, as we talk right now, he's hitting two, seventy, three, three, three, five, fifteen with a very maintainable, twenty, five percent strikeout rate, shown some power, shown bats feed, shown defense,

[SPEAKER_03]: How sold are you that this is okay, Colson Montgomery is fixed versus Colson Montgomery's on a nice hot streak.

[SPEAKER_03]: But again, we will note he's been better for two months now.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is not a week.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is not two weeks.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is two solid months of good production.

[SPEAKER_02]: And what's let's back up the truck a little bit too, because I think that at one point.

[SPEAKER_02]: two years ago right prior to the twenty twenty four season coming out of twenty twenty three Montgomery had been a little injury riddled early in his career.

[SPEAKER_02]: But he had hit everywhere he had been the underlying data was pretty good the high in exit velocities for good.

[SPEAKER_02]: The contact numbers were really good.

[SPEAKER_02]: The approach numbers were really good.

[SPEAKER_02]: The angles were really good as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it was like, hey, you know, good chance to play a short stop, maybe we was over to third base, bigger body, kind of in the same class as like a Marcelo Meyer in terms of how he was viewed a few years ago.

[SPEAKER_02]: And gets to AAA gets an opportunity to kind of go through some growing pains for a year.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I feel like

[SPEAKER_02]: Even in the offseason, we sort of were concerned, but we're kind of saying, all right, it was pump that breaks a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: When he came back this year and was even worse for over a month, excuse me, sent down to the ACL, more or less at the beginning of the complex league season on May fifth, plays a handful of games there, and then comes back and it takes a long time to sort of buy that trust back a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: When you free fall is hard,

[SPEAKER_02]: as Montgomery had and there wasn't like any substantial injury or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think I still have still guarded optimism that I do think that maybe he's come through these struggles because there was was a lot of underlying stuff that wasn't terrible.

[SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time, the swing decisions had backed up a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: The contact had certainly backed up a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: The contact quality backed up.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think even the sort of age excuse, you know, started to wear thin a little bit this year now, since they sent him down to the ACL.

[SPEAKER_02]: Just in AAA, we know about the major numbers we can talk about that.

[SPEAKER_02]: He hit two, seventy, three, fifty, three, five, seventy, four.

[SPEAKER_02]: The power was back.

[SPEAKER_02]: The strikeouts were still a little higher than you would have anticipated based on what his pedigree had been and what we had seen in the lower miners.

[SPEAKER_03]: So much better than they were before he went down.

[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the the contact quality was there.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I don't know specifically what it was that that changed.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think it was a massive scale approach change or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it was probably more swing and probably past your oriented, which is what I think a lot of the time we see the adjustments swing adjustments people talk about.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's more or less bat here, bat there where the hand position is that sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: some sort of massive overhaul.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just small tweaks that maybe allow somebody to get to a ball off the plate they weren't getting to or just, you know, attack maybe off the plate and that's kind of what we saw on some of the underlying data when we did try to dive in a little bit on the gummery.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's interesting.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's great that he's having success now, you know, in the major leagues sometimes that's sort of the

[SPEAKER_02]: the switch that guys need to sort of, you know, get to that next level.

[SPEAKER_02]: And a lot of what he's done over these twenty or so games and the majors at this point is really sustainable like you said.

[SPEAKER_02]: The strikeout rate is actually better.

[SPEAKER_02]: The walkway rate is kind of in line from what we've seen from a summary in the upper minors.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it's, you know, batting average on balls and play is just three, eighteen.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it's on outland.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's just something where it's exactly.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think we even look at the the bad at ball profile.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's some high and, you know, exit the lows there.

[SPEAKER_02]: You talked about the bad speed.

[SPEAKER_02]: The barrel rate at ten point two percent is pretty good.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know,

[SPEAKER_02]: The average exit velocity is lower.

[SPEAKER_02]: The hard hit rate isn't great.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think some of that is just getting that consistency and he is a young player.

[SPEAKER_02]: We will see that sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I think it is encouraging.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he's hitting the ball in the air more consistently, showing a little bit of pull side air as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think those combination of traits are good things and good developments with Montgomery.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he's a guy with Jedis and off the top on hundred and now I kind of look at it and said, you know, we should have been a little bit more patient with the Montgomery, but that's not how things work.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is encouraging.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is encouraging and especially the key thing is he was so young that now you're look at it and it's like, okay, this is a guy who's one of the younger short stops in the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_03]: He can play short stop.

[SPEAKER_03]: These are, you know, especially can play all really, really kind of all around the infill if you want.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is now a guy who looks again like a building block for the white sucks who need building blocks.

[SPEAKER_03]: So encouraging there.

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[SPEAKER_03]: We're going to jump straight to another white sock because

[SPEAKER_03]: Look at his overall numbers, George Wolkow.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're not going to be, you're not going to be wild.

[SPEAKER_03]: Wolkow overall this year is hitting two, nineteen, three, sixteen, three, forty, nine at conapolis.

[SPEAKER_03]: Low a conapolis.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's, that's not good for a guy who, the, the real shocking one there is that slugging percentage for a guy who does have athleticism and jaw-dropping power.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not really getting to it, but

[SPEAKER_03]: If you dig a little deeper again, there are some encouraging signs here.

[SPEAKER_03]: And this month, two thirty nine three fifty four three seventy three.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're not saying that this is a guy who's all of a sudden tearing the cover off the ball.

[SPEAKER_03]: But that is a massive improvement and a massive and a significant cut in the strikeout rate, which has always been his biggest problem over the last couple months.

[SPEAKER_03]: The hope is maybe here you're seeing a guy who's contact rate is improving.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then the power starts to kind of come back again.

[SPEAKER_03]: And his power is somewhere he could literally have a week where you turn around and say he's slugging eight hundred, you know, for a week.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think it also kind of needs to be stated just based on park factors and league factors as far as power numbers go home run numbers and slugging numbers go.

[SPEAKER_02]: The Carolina League at this point, where we Carolina League seems to sort of be the bottom of the barrel in term, even in the Florida State League at this point seems to play a lot more power friendly.

[SPEAKER_02]: Then the Carolina League parks do.

[SPEAKER_02]: I was looking earlier this week, kind of putting some context to numbers.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think there were maybe four or five hitters that have double digit home runs at this point in the season in the Carolina League.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, we still unqualified hitters, etc.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, and there's very, I don't think there's anybody that's slugging five hundred in the league.

[SPEAKER_02]: So a four, sixteen slugging percentage for Wokeau over that period of time is probably like a five hundred plus slugging in almost any other league.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm working on we're working on some updated part factors.

[SPEAKER_03]: We did them at the start of the year by working on some and when you do that when the ones I'm working on right now have canapolis.

[SPEAKER_03]: As a seventy nine on the hundred is an average home run park.

[SPEAKER_03]: Seventy nine is one of the lowest you're going to see in the minor.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it is it's a home park also that really diminishes home run power in a league that diminishes home run power.

[SPEAKER_03]: So you have that the other thing that does jump out with him.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you said, okay, well, what's improved for him?

[SPEAKER_03]: He's swinging less.

[SPEAKER_03]: He was at fifty four percent before June first, he's at forty seven percent since June first, which has been sometimes you've seen guys who need to swing more, sometimes you've seen you see guys who swing less.

[SPEAKER_03]: In his case, it's swing less because that swing right then his chase rate has gone from thirty five percent to twenty eight percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: Big problem for

[SPEAKER_03]: With the long levers with the holes, he's going to have even in the zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's not a guy who can expand the zone and make a picture job easier.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's doing that better.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's making better decisions on his swings, which has paid off like when you look at kind of in the zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: From up to June first, two, four, one, ninety, six, three, twenty, three, on pitches in the strike zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: Two, sixty, nine, two, seventy, seven, four, ninety, five on pitches in the strike zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: Since June first, that's what you need to see more of, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: Like that's where you need to see.

[SPEAKER_03]: I know the on-based percentage don't worry about the on-based percentage there.

[SPEAKER_03]: Those are in zone pitches.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're not gonna have a high on-based percentage above your batting average on in zone pitches.

[SPEAKER_03]: But he needs to make better swing decisions.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's been doing that.

[SPEAKER_03]: Again, don't take this and go, oh, he's fixed everything.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's still a lot of work to do.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is a guy in low A. I would still describe him as kind of one of the larger bounds between what he could be if everything breaks right and what he likely will be, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: Like if you said likely will be, though, likelihood is that this is not a significant big leaker.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you talk about

[SPEAKER_03]: the performance, the current issues and flaws in his game.

[SPEAKER_03]: But if you said a lot of guys when you talk about that who are in A-Ball especially low A, you would say that these limitations kind of will state, the upside's not there to really overcome that.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is a guy who the upside is massive.

[SPEAKER_03]: because he is big and athletic for a big guy.

[SPEAKER_03]: If it all, he's playing center field field.

[SPEAKER_03]: Don't think he's going to be a center field along the road.

[SPEAKER_03]: But he is playing it.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think, you know, over the years, we've seen a lot of these guys come into pro ball, bigger sluggers like this that have some of these sort of plate skills or at least contact, that's a ball deficiencies.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the fact that Wilcoe is as young as he is, is a high school drafty from a few years ago,

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it takes a little longer with these these bigger body sluggers.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think it's obviously a pie in the sky sort of comparison at this point, but I think we've seen this step forward that Spencer Jones has taken this season and just it takes a little more time with some of those bigger guys.

[SPEAKER_02]: It took a little once again, this is pie in the sky.

[SPEAKER_02]: It took a little longer with Aaron Judge.

[SPEAKER_02]: It does take a little longer to iron out some of these swings.

[SPEAKER_02]: But as you said, the upside in terms of the power is massive.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think what all those guys have in common is just learning the stuff that you can attack on the outer half of the zone that are good chase swings versus bad chase swings, staying away from certain types of spin and trying to attack certain quadrants and zone certain pitches that you just focus on whether it's fast balls and the upper quadrants or

[SPEAKER_02]: sliders that hang in a certain area.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like you just have stuff that your programed into and you'll learn to attack those pitches.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's when those guys take the next step forward because they do have, you know, this exposure to swing and miss just naturally because as you said, of the longer levers and all that sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: So they got a bigger strike.

[SPEAKER_03]: So a bigger actual strike zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: And a bigger strike zone is exactly.

[SPEAKER_03]: Again, we're not saying any of these guys are going to become Aaron Judge because Aaron Judge is one of the best players of all time at this point.

[SPEAKER_03]: I do always love to share the staff that when you talk about that guy's developing.

[SPEAKER_03]: Aaron Judge may slug seven hundred in the big leagues this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Aaron jugs never sluged five hundred in the minor leagues, which is the most amazing stat.

[SPEAKER_03]: I can think of today.

[SPEAKER_03]: But speaking of other sluggers and speaking of other guys who play, you know, kind of power based positions.

[SPEAKER_03]: The last time that we were paying, you know, if that a lot of people paid attention to Tyler Lockler with the Mariners, he came up last year.

[SPEAKER_03]: He didn't hit, sent back down to AAA.

[SPEAKER_03]: Didn't have a great start to the season.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now you turn around.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's hitting three, sixteen, four, one, five, forty, three as we record this.

[SPEAKER_03]: And the last two months have been especially good.

[SPEAKER_03]: What is it kind of jumping out to you Jeff about what Tyler Lockler is doing now?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, I kind of dug into him a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: as a player the month because he had such an outstanding July.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think a lot of it is just he's making enough contact.

[SPEAKER_02]: The swing decisions are good enough that doesn't expand the zone a whole lot.

[SPEAKER_02]: He attacks a lot in the zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: And his hard hit contact is at pretty good angles.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not a great angle, it's all the time.

[SPEAKER_02]: There is still some swinging miss, but he doesn't mitigate that.

[SPEAKER_02]: So we're talking about with some of these bigger sluggers by kind of limiting what he does and doesn't swing at.

[SPEAKER_02]: Doesn't chase a lot of spin particularly outside of the zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it's plus maybe plus plus raw power, really big exit velocities, you know, it's over one-o-seven in terms of his ninety-a-th percentile and compares favorably, because we have these numbers for both big leaders and AAA players on Hawkeye systems that we trust.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it compares really favorably with some of the better sluggers in the game in terms of what this raw power output is.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think there's enough plate skills, angles, and just this big power tool.

[SPEAKER_02]: The question with Lockhear and I think at the time when he came up and still kind of remains is, you know, his lack of a position because he is a first basement.

[SPEAKER_02]: If he had the ability to play an average or better third base, he would have played a lot of third base for the Mariners over the last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: As Ben Williamson has gotten reps instead of him, despite having, you know, a bat that isn't close to Lockhear, frankly.

[SPEAKER_02]: But the glove is much better and he provides just enough offense that when those opportunities do come up and someone has to fill in if they're Williamson gets a lot of those reps when it potentially could have been locked there.

[SPEAKER_02]: So when I was writing him up the other day, I kind of felt as if

[SPEAKER_02]: This might be a guy to tie this into the trade deadline.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe this is a trade piece in whatever deal the Mariners end up trying to make.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe another team that needs a first base and a DH and needs some power in the lineup, you know, could take a lock we aren't kind of plug and play immediately because he does look at this point as if he's major league buddy.

[SPEAKER_03]: that said, now I'll kind of post some cold water here, which is, this kind of to me is a perfect illustration.

[SPEAKER_03]: We get to call the time questions about why do you not have this first basement higher on your top hundred?

[SPEAKER_03]: And Tyler Lockler right now is the perfect example of, the way I've been saying it this week, okay, this was my thing this week.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you're a short stop who can hit, they leave the door wide open for you, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: Come on in, settle in.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've seen this with Colson Montgomery, for example, Colson Montgomery.

[SPEAKER_03]: I know he's young, but Colson Montgomery was terrible for a year and a couple of months.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then as soon as he's better, he's up because he can help a team right away.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you're a first spaceman and you're really first space only, they don't open the door.

[SPEAKER_03]: They may leave it unlocked.

[SPEAKER_03]: But then they're like, when you get there, you better open it.

[SPEAKER_03]: You better stick your foot in when they try to close the door.

[SPEAKER_03]: You better open it yourself and then settle in and show right away that you can hit.

[SPEAKER_03]: Because the Mariners have had a gaping hole at first base all season.

[SPEAKER_03]: They've been playing Donovan Solano.

[SPEAKER_03]: They tried Roudi Tellez, who they then DFA.

[SPEAKER_03]: They've Luke Rayley has both bad defensively at first base and not hitting.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's been their first base in this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Never did they have a moment.

[SPEAKER_03]: And again, when we say this, lockler is hitting four, twenty five, four, ninety five, eight, twenty five, this month.

[SPEAKER_03]: But he had two, ninety three, eighty five, six, thirteen last month as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Even with him on a two-month heater, the mergers were not like we're going to see if Tyler Lockler can fix this.

[SPEAKER_03]: They said we're going to go out and they by the way, I don't blame them for this.

[SPEAKER_03]: Josh Naler is going to make them a better team.

[SPEAKER_03]: But

[SPEAKER_03]: It does feel like the Tyler Lockler's window.

[SPEAKER_03]: And maybe he gets one more window.

[SPEAKER_03]: Josh Nailer is a free agent the end of the year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe he gets one more window next year to prove it.

[SPEAKER_03]: But the window as a first space bin does feel like it either doesn't open.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, sometimes they just keep the window locked or the door locked.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then sometimes it's like it's you've got this very small period of time to prove it because you can't play those other positions.

[SPEAKER_03]: I bring this up also because like we see

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, just other examples, I was watching Matt Mervis play for the Marlins in Triple A for Triple A Jacksonville, who's struggling in Triple A now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Matt Mervis had a great year with the Cubs a couple of years ago, had that like little time where it's like, okay, you better mash.

[SPEAKER_03]: He didn't mash back to the miners you go.

[SPEAKER_03]: Davis and De La Santos hit forty homers basically for the feedback slash Marlins last year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Nope, not an opportunity.

[SPEAKER_03]: We talk about Jonathan long now with the Cubs.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know if Jonathan Long is going to have an opportunity with the Cubs.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I don't know if he's going to have some opportunity.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I was watching Bobby Seymour, who by the way, if you check out Bobby Seymour's numbers, now in a full season over two years of AAA, dude just matches, but he's a first based only.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so it just does illustrate.

[SPEAKER_03]: how difficult it is to be a first base only prospect who kind of carved out a big league career.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that's kind of the thing, like you said, maybe he's included in the deal.

[SPEAKER_03]: But if I'm the team acquiring him, he's not going to be the cornerstone piece because the minute that the mayor is off for him, I'm going to be like, you didn't want him to be your first base.

[SPEAKER_03]: Then so why do you think that we want him to be ours?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I also think that he was probably a bad fit for that park where they gave him two chances last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: So they've already burned options as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just like they've rocketed him up to the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_02]: They didn't give him a very long leash.

[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, he's been really productive of late over the last couple of months in AAA.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's only twenty four as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not like he's a twenty six year old first, but it is.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a thing.

[SPEAKER_03]: sixteen majorly games when I say that they leave the door crack like that you better come in and you better shove it wide open and then you better stick a chair at the door to be like you're not caught you're not put closing the store behind me.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're not pushing me back out.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's just really hard to be a first-spaceship, but they'll take us to another position which is a little easier Dante Norie out through with the fillies slow start has gotten better

[SPEAKER_03]: What have you seen with Dante Norie over the last couple of months that encourages you again?

[SPEAKER_03]: And we're saying these are these are not guys.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's be clear here.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're not talking about guys who had great full seasons.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're talking about guys who had struggles to start the year.

[SPEAKER_03]: and then have turned it around.

[SPEAKER_03]: Norie at this point, you know, basically back kind of finished last year and then back this year in the FSL, two, sixty, three, three, fifty, five, three, seventy, nine, twenty, five, steels in thirty to a temps this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think this was a guy that was interesting because he was a little bit older as a high school player.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, is assigned to a full season level for that reason, right out the gate, despite being, you know, a little bit more raw, potentially.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it took some time to settle in.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think you look over the first few months.

[SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't bad.

[SPEAKER_02]: The contact wasn't bad.

[SPEAKER_02]: The swing decisions weren't bad.

[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, certainly the impact wasn't there.

[SPEAKER_02]: He wasn't getting the ball in the air consistently.

[SPEAKER_02]: It, two, thirty, one, three, thirteen, three, thirteen.

[SPEAKER_02]: Over the first two months of the season, since that point, three, all one, four, two, four, fifty, five.

[SPEAKER_02]: The strikeout rate, which was already pretty low, is down.

[SPEAKER_02]: The swing rate's been up.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he's walking more.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, the chase swings have been down a little bit, but he's just making better swing decisions, probably getting, you know, a sea legs a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think with some of these younger players in A-Ball,

[SPEAKER_02]: The first few months, especially if they're going from high school background, where maybe you didn't play super high level competition, there's only a few regions throughout the country where you see that, or you weren't really early USA baseball guy that was on all these different national teams.

[SPEAKER_02]: You got to make up some of that ground.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think we've seen that.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're seeing more power.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're seeing the speed play a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's still kind of a frantic based runner at times.

[SPEAKER_02]: But if you get to ball to a gap, you know, he's a guy that's going to take extra bases.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think a lot of that, what a system stuff is starting to tick up.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the skills have matched.

[SPEAKER_02]: And when you have that, what a system, a little bit of power, some speed, of course.

[SPEAKER_02]: And you're not striking out a lot.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're showing above average contact.

[SPEAKER_02]: and good swing decisions, I think, you know, all together that, you know, typically equals out and you end up being a pretty good prospect.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think he's a name to follow now after kind of being a little bit of a questionable player, I think, after the draft, just in terms of old, not a ton of experience, wasn't ranked necessarily as high as he went.

[SPEAKER_02]: But it's starting to show something, show some upside and, you know, show some of that athleticism that showed him the testing.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that's, we've rolled through prospects who are off to great starts.

[SPEAKER_03]: After this break, we will come back and look at prospects who are tailing off after hot starts.

[SPEAKER_03]: So Jeff, we also now have prospects who have fallen off.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm gonna start here with one who, if you were paying attention early this year, you'd be like, wow,

[SPEAKER_03]: Argentinimale, the BlueJace shortstop, really setting the North Wesley kind of on fire for the first two months of the season.

[SPEAKER_03]: Not so much now.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, again, guys can get run hot, guys can run cold, but for the last two months, Argentinimale has really seen kind of the numbers tail off.

[SPEAKER_03]: What are you seeing?

[SPEAKER_03]: And I've got something I want to share also.

[SPEAKER_03]: What are you seeing from Argentina mallet?

[SPEAKER_03]: Like, as kind of this, this, well, started off as a very good season has kind of, is coming, is coming back to Earth.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think, you know, not spoiling any of the numbers and the stuff that you dug up.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think just by watching a lot of Vancouver games and seeing a lot of Namala, that's beginning the season versus now.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot more swing and miss.

[SPEAKER_02]: He seems a little more caught in between.

[SPEAKER_02]: The timing isn't as good.

[SPEAKER_02]: Just in terms of like how long his barrel was coming through the zone the beginning of the year and spring training kind of after they made the adjustments last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: It felt like he could hit anything, whether, you know, he'd turn on something that was on the inner half and just, you know, destroy it to his pull side.

[SPEAKER_02]: But he was catching stuff, you know, middle out as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, a lot of that has dried up and it seems like even the swing decisions, which historically for Namala, even coming into pro ball had been one of the strengths was he wasn't a guy that expanded the zone a lot.

[SPEAKER_02]: and really made pictures work.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's not doing that as much and you know, it's just been a confidence killer for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: The thing that does jump out kind of along this lens, what you're saying, um, sliders, especially like really what's kind of one of the things that does jump out with them all is is sliders were not an issue for him early in the season.

[SPEAKER_03]: For June first, two, sixty one, three, fifty two, five, twenty two against sliders.

[SPEAKER_03]: Since June first, oh, seventy eight, oh, ninety six, one eighteen is his flashlight and sliders.

[SPEAKER_03]: Basically, before pitches on the outer third or off the zone, weren't really a big issue.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, pitchers are just wearing him out, staying away, away, away, away.

[SPEAKER_03]: And he's, he's got to find kind of an answer for that.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's something where, again, we get to this point in the season.

[SPEAKER_03]: One of the things that I always kind of challenged on things like this is, we're gonna get to this on the next guy that we talk about also.

[SPEAKER_03]: How much of this is there a flaw here that has to be fixed?

[SPEAKER_03]: How much of it is that as a young player gets tired, some of these issues kind of arise, where you're no longer seeing the same swing.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're no longer seeing the same bat speed that you were before.

[SPEAKER_03]: We'll see, but like again, when you look at it, namala this month, one, seventy, eight, three, or two, two, sixty, last month, one, fifty, eight, two, fifty, two, two, sixty, three.

[SPEAKER_03]: He has not homered this month.

[SPEAKER_03]: He hit two last month.

[SPEAKER_03]: And we say that because he had nine in the first two months of the season.

[SPEAKER_03]: The bat seems to have slowed down.

[SPEAKER_03]: The plate coverage, especially on the outer third, has dropped off.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's again, he's going to have to pick it up.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is, but this is something where it's your monitoring it.

[SPEAKER_03]: Still a very good prospect.

[SPEAKER_03]: But how much I guess I'll ask you, you do our blue jays list.

[SPEAKER_03]: How much does this kind of raise a little bit of a red flag yet?

[SPEAKER_03]: But like a

[SPEAKER_03]: I'd just put a yellow flag, a caution flag here of what, you know, to expect from margin among.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think there's definitely, you know, a little bit of a red flag as we've seen some struggles.

[SPEAKER_02]: And we saw this sort of good middle period between the beginning of last season where he struggled and the, you know, the second half seemingly of this season where he's really struggled.

[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, other guys on that team, Victor Arias and others have gotten promotions up in your hamster.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that had kind of initially been the plan.

[SPEAKER_02]: At least in the early point in the season when he was really, you know, slugging and it was one of the best hitters and any high-a level that'll lend the North West League.

[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, Jojo Parker enters the fold.

[SPEAKER_02]: They've had great performances from a ton of pictures in this organization this year, whether it's, you know, triusavage, you know, Kendry Rojas is now a guy that's really moving up, Cal Steven.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, gauge standard for, and Johnny King.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, these are some of the best performing pitching prospects in the miners this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: It kind of puts into question, you know, his place is a top-fifty prospect in the game and, you know, the top guy in the Blue J system at the moment because you do have to wonder if this is going to be a constant with Namala Ware.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's great performance and then some big adjustment period that timing gets off or whatever it might be.

[SPEAKER_03]: He has run very hot and cold in his pro career, very young still, but like, as you remember, if you are a Blue J fan or someone who follows prospects, started last year, awfully like was in the FSL had to be sent down to the FCL and then finished the year on fire, great, you know, one of the better hitters in the FSL.

[SPEAKER_03]: So like,

[SPEAKER_03]: He's had now essentially two really hot periods and two really cold periods during essentially almost two year pro career.

[SPEAKER_03]: We'll see you again.

[SPEAKER_03]: We'll see how the season finishes for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: Speaking of young short stops, Franklin areas who got a promotion up to, got the bump, has gotten a bump this year up and promotion.

[SPEAKER_03]: But Franklin areas has really kind of after a very good start at the season.

[SPEAKER_03]: has really tailed off, I'll kind of start on this one, then kick it to you, like diving in kind of on what he's doing, two, sixty, three, three, oh, nine, three, eighty, two, overall since he'll promote it to high-a-greenville, so there's nothing there that you go, oh, that's terrible.

[SPEAKER_03]: One, sixty, nine, two, twenty, eight, two, sixty, five and June, two, oh, eight, two, fifty, two, ninety, two in July.

[SPEAKER_03]: When I look at it, trying to see like, okay, what's changing, what are pictures doing to him?

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not like, oh, he started really chasing.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not like with him that you look at and say, oh, pictures have found this hole in his swing or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_03]: What I would say that really does jump out is it does seem like he's just worn out.

[SPEAKER_03]: when he was doing well, when he was going well, he was wearing out left center field, right, which should be kind of one of his areas to do damage, to pull the ball to the left center field power alley.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that is no longer part of his game right now, like he has just stopped hitting balls there.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that means that the power really kind of goes away.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you look at it and say, okay,

[SPEAKER_03]: you know what's going on like the swing and miss is not really that much different the the things that you would say like oh this is a glaring flaw aren't there as much as you just say you're not hitting the ball like it just seems like that he's tired and the bat speeds not where it was we'll see that's you know that's my impression but anything else that jumps up to you about areas yeah you know i think that

[SPEAKER_02]: This is sort of what a lot of people thought was coming when his prospect star seemed to rise a little bit more than was probably warranted, at least according to, you know, a lot of scouts that cover the Red Sox organization.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a very good hit tool.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's no denying that it's plus bad to ball ability mixed with really good swing decisions.

[SPEAKER_02]: And his short stop defense is pretty good.

[SPEAKER_02]: Probably doesn't have the arm for short stop long term, but could be a really good defensive second baseman.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think with people here that, you just sort of assume, and they look at the stolen base totals that he's a plus runner, he's not.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's probably more fringe run to maybe even below average run.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's probably a better version of Adela Amador, but we kind of saw a similar profile to this, you know, and

[SPEAKER_02]: The EVs aren't great.

[SPEAKER_02]: The angles aren't great.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's not hitting for a lot of power in a park that in a league where there are some parks like Asheville, etc.

[SPEAKER_02]: where the power numbers typically jump when you leave Salem.

[SPEAKER_02]: That hasn't happened for him.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's not fast enough to kind of run out some of those infield singles and that sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, he either needs to gain speed, which is probably not going to happen.

[SPEAKER_02]: or he needs to gain a little bit of impact for this profile to really play.

[SPEAKER_02]: Otherwise, he's probably maybe just a utility in-fielder.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that the hit tool is good enough that it could carry the profile.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I do think we're starting to see some cracks in the facade now, just in terms of what this player can be.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he's in an organization that values adding impact, values adding bat speed,

[SPEAKER_02]: He's been in the organization for a couple of years and hasn't added a whole lot of impact.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you sometimes have to wonder if maybe there was enough of an engine to sort of build it out.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you know, always not lost.

[SPEAKER_02]: I want to say like this is still a top under prospect.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, with with really good bats of all skills and great approach and I think he's going to hit and he's still very very young and young for the level.

[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, if he ends up as a hit tool second baseman with forty power, I do think that's kind of an underwhelming outcome a little bit just based on where he's right.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's speaking, guys, though, who do have power, but it's been a little bit missing lately.

[SPEAKER_03]: Bryce Eldridge, the Giants for Spaceman, again, another guy got a promotion.

[SPEAKER_03]: Some of what we're talking about here can be tied to getting a bump in the level.

[SPEAKER_03]: He had a great start to the year, AA Richmond, was promoted to AAA.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it's really kind of struggled at the plate, a good bit kind of since then, like with Eldridge,

[SPEAKER_03]: He is still very young for AAA.

[SPEAKER_03]: I know that, but two, twenty, six, two, eighty, eight, four, ninety, five overall since he got the promotion to AAA.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then it was two, thirty, two, eighty, four, four, twenty, six in June.

[SPEAKER_03]: Little better, three, thirty, three, four, twenty, nine, three, thirty, three, but you know, in, I'm sorry, though, two, twenty, six, two, twenty, six, two, eighty, eight, four, ninety, five overall.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's as Sacramento.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, he did have a little injury there, so he did have a time, you know, some time off and then a time down in the ACL as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: But what have you seen with Bryce so far and what, what are you kind of seeing that he kind of maybe needs to do?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think there's a lot more swing and miss is the thing that kind of really jumps out to you when looking at the profile.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, there's so much power here that even when he struggles and he's swinging and missing in a really high rate and the strikeout rate is north of thirty percent since he returned after the all-star break, which is a smaller sample.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's only about ten games.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's been about a thirty three percent strikeout rate, but you know, he's slugged.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's hit for power.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that's still there.

[SPEAKER_02]: But it's sort of what we had anticipated, despite being a really talented player.

[SPEAKER_02]: He played a ton of baseball last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, one hundred and sixteen game regular season.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, in his first full professional season, which is kind of an outrageous amount of games, then went to the Arizona fall league, kind of wore down there a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then has dealt with some injuries, a hamstring injury, you know, some wear and tear, kind of soft tissue stuff.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I wonder if there was some fatigue from that really big jump of being a high school player, you know, the previous spring to, you know, being all over the place, future's game, Arizona fall, the playing a hundred and sixteen games, you know, remember he got up late in the season to trip away for the playoffs, just to give him some extra time.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think some of it is just the growing pains of a young player who hasn't had a whole lot of reps this season.

[SPEAKER_02]: And at twenty years old has kind of been jettisoned up to one of the highest levels in the minor leagues and is just trying to to keep a float but the elite

[SPEAKER_02]: quality of contact, the power and the angles, all that stuff is still there.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even as he struggled, he's got a two sixty nine ISO over twenty five games in AAA this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that kind of speaks for itself.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, the approach stuff isn't great.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's not walking a ton and he's swinging and missing.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I know you're going to dive in a little bit more on just, you know, what in particular he's getting exploited by.

[SPEAKER_03]: Changeups.

[SPEAKER_03]: Changeups at Triple A. A Triple A. Changeup is not a pitch that Bryce Eldridge wants to see.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's seen seventy nine of them.

[SPEAKER_03]: So far, synergy sports data here.

[SPEAKER_03]: Fifty one percent of those are strikes.

[SPEAKER_03]: Forty six percent swing percentage.

[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_03]: Those numbers are pretty normal.

[SPEAKER_03]: sixty-four percent misrate against changeups.

[SPEAKER_03]: That number is not normal.

[SPEAKER_03]: A thirty-three percent chase rate against changeups.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's not that's just you're not seeing them, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: You think you are seeing a fastball.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so if you can throw a quality changeup below the zone, chances are that Bryce Aldrich is either going to swing over it right now in AAA or top it and make really weak contact.

[SPEAKER_03]: Those are the two things that are really happening with it.

[SPEAKER_03]: as you said, this is a guy who's very young for the level, but that's going to be something that he's getting, you know, he's getting a better taste of those than he's ever gotten before, that's something he's going to have to improve.

[SPEAKER_03]: And another first basement we wanted to cover here today, who's on the IL right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Xavier Isaac is on the IL, and this is one that kind of, okay, maybe we could have even just said the answer is injuries, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: I do want to highlight it though because

[SPEAKER_03]: So Xavier Isaac, this year has yet to play a game in the field.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's had kind of hand in wrist issues on the IL now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Really wasn't kind of really was struggling before he went on the IL.

[SPEAKER_03]: You do have to wonder kind of how much of that is kind of tied to that.

[SPEAKER_03]: Swing and misrate was again a problem in June before he went on the IL.

[SPEAKER_03]: I just bring this up though because like we just talked about it.

[SPEAKER_03]: First basement.

[SPEAKER_03]: First basement you have to really match.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're talking about Tyler Lockler who is slugging over eight hundred this month and can't get a spot in the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_03]: Xavier Isaac is the first basement and he's shown really good power at times in the miners.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's shown really good ability to get on base and hit for average early in his

[SPEAKER_03]: pro career kind of shifted more into the slugger approach as he hit AA, but this is our turn to AA after, you know, good bit of time that it last year, injury plague season, but I would just say, you know, we're bringing up again, this is a guy who's going to have to mash because of the profile and

[SPEAKER_03]: He's hitting to a one.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's to a one, three, sixty, six, four, forty, six, especially when you throw in the southern league.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's better than you think it is because the southern league is a really hard place to hit.

[SPEAKER_03]: But that is a concern that is another guy who's kind of struggling and hopefully it's healthy and we see him hit better than he's hit so far.

[SPEAKER_03]: Anything that jumps out to you, again, other than the other key thing we will note, DH only this year, which is also a concern.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think even dating back to last year, I had some of my concerns for a member correctly hit.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, just doing humongous numbers in the first half and then things started to tail off a little bit that might have been some injuries as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: But the swing and miss like really bottomed out as he was promoted and it feels like it's never come back to that sort of resting point that we thought it was like I think we thought this guy had a fifty hit tool initially when he first came in a normal that

[SPEAKER_02]: There might be some swinging miss but it was a tolerable enough because the swing decisions and all that and he hits stuff in his own.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then the end zone swing and miss really jumped in the second half a last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think those were the first morning signs.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, you know, he hasn't really been able to stay healthy.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it's been de-aching, which obviously is a concern you have to wonder, you know, how much he's aching or what he's dealing with in particular.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the swing and miss just he hasn't overcome it.

[SPEAKER_02]: So another guy on a much larger scale,

[SPEAKER_02]: not in terms of height, but in terms of swing and miss, then Bryce Eldridge.

[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, similar in terms of like really outliers, seventy top of the scale sort of power and quality of contact, it's just Eldridge has more consistently been able to channel that and get to enough contact for it all to play than Isaac has.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's the big concern, can he maybe have contact?

[SPEAKER_03]: I forgot to mention one other thing about algebra positive with elders I wanted to bring up because I think it gets lost how bad a defensive first basement and how unreliable a first basement Bryce Eldridge was last year.

[SPEAKER_03]: He was

[SPEAKER_03]: His era rate at first base was last year, unplayable.

[SPEAKER_03]: It was at a rate where it's like, I didn't know that first base spin could have that many errors.

[SPEAKER_03]: This year, he has five.

[SPEAKER_03]: This year, five, and by the way, since he got promoted to AAA, one, like he's had a couple.

[SPEAKER_03]: He had one game where he had two fielding errors, but he's been a much more

[SPEAKER_03]: reliable defender this year and I again I do want to bring up kind of that positive because if you were paying very close attention last year you may have noticed that it's like no like last year I just want to bring these numbers up so I have them in front of me so in twenty four he had eighteen errors at first base in a hundred games eighteen again minors majors are very different

[SPEAKER_03]: Eighteen errors will rank you among the major league leaders in errors in a given year.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that's never a first basement.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's short stops.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's guys who field the ball a whole lot and then throw it across the diamond, third basement, having to react really quickly and they have a wild throw.

[SPEAKER_03]: Eighteen errors for a first basement is a number that you should never see.

[SPEAKER_03]: That has improved this year and that is something that is encouraging.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think we should let least mention that also.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that gets us

[SPEAKER_03]: part we always in the podcast with our prospects of boxes where we talk about non-top under prospects who we kind of who have cut our eye for one reason or another.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'll start this week and I'm starting with one that you may when you hear his name go away.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's not a prospect anymore.

[SPEAKER_03]: Forest Whitley.

[SPEAKER_03]: Top prospect, one of the top pitching processing's baseball in, twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen kind of era, you know, like a long time ago, pre-pandemic has had a lot of injuries, a lot of ups and downs since then.

[SPEAKER_03]: At this point was, you know, defade was picked by the raise, you know, picked up on way defanguenious waivers, uh, wait by the raise, put in the bullpen.

[SPEAKER_03]: Had an outing his second to last outing in the major leagues is one of those where you never want to have an outing like that is reliever.

[SPEAKER_03]: I believe it's zero out six runs.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's going to leave a mark on your ERA that you're pretty much not going to recover from.

[SPEAKER_03]: DFA to again, and here's the keynote.

[SPEAKER_03]: Then cleared waivers.

[SPEAKER_03]: So now he is off the forty man roster and pitching in triplet Durham in the rotation to get.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's the key part of this.

[SPEAKER_03]: I will be honest, Jeff has warned me on this one.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's like, it's gonna, you know, JJ, don't do it.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's gonna break your heart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like, because Forest Whitley's always had stuff and it has not all come together.

[SPEAKER_03]: But that said, seeing him Saturday night against Robby Snelling, I'll tell you, he wasn't as good as Robby Snelling, but he looked pretty good.

[SPEAKER_03]: Not a great Jacksonville lineup, he was facing.

[SPEAKER_03]: But the change up was filthy.

[SPEAKER_03]: The cutter was really good.

[SPEAKER_03]: The fastball, which was ninety four, ninety five.

[SPEAKER_03]: was good enough to go with those.

[SPEAKER_03]: He has a slider and a curve I think that kind of turned into a slurve sometimes.

[SPEAKER_03]: That was probably the pitch that was at times a little bit iffy when he gave up hard contact those largely because of that.

[SPEAKER_03]: But he could also drop it in as kind of a surprise pitch at times and steal a strike with it.

[SPEAKER_03]: The strike out rate, the walk rate as a starter and triple A pretty good

[SPEAKER_03]: Stuff pretty good.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's twenty seven.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't want to make this sound like this.

[SPEAKER_03]: Look, check out this young prospect who's, you know, but if you told me the rays have done a really good job of reclamation projects over the years.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you told me that there's still kind of a big league future and some big league success in the future for forced witly,

[SPEAKER_03]: I'll tell you, I saw hints of that on Saturday and we'll see what they can do.

[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe it never comes together, maybe it does.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I was intrigued.

[SPEAKER_03]: I was, and now Jeff, before you get to your soapbox, you can now tell me how I'm a crazy man who should just, you know, like pick someone else this week if you want.

[SPEAKER_02]: No, no, I think it's interesting.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think especially considering he's starting.

[SPEAKER_02]: It would be such a typical raised story and such kind of a typical pitching prospect story.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like these are, you know, the pitching prospects kind of never die.

[SPEAKER_02]: It feels like sometimes these guys can go away for a bunch of years and then pop back up at twenty seven or twenty eight, figure something out.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe finally feel fully healthy after, you know, a litany of shoulder and elbow and

[SPEAKER_02]: bunch of injuries we probably don't even know about.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the race seemed to be the team that figures out how to get control back for guys, whatever that might be.

[SPEAKER_02]: We've talked about it before in terms of their ability to grow strike rates.

[SPEAKER_02]: They did it with Jill Boyle.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it would be really exciting if they could do this with Forest Whitley.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the stuff is there if the strikes are there and he's going five or six in AAA.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's further than I think the Astros even got him when he was at his best.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it's really interesting, you know, and it's a fun story and kind of what makes fallen baseball and cover and prospects such a blast because, you know, you think one thing and then five years later, it's like the reality could be the complete opposite of what you were, you know, entrenched in.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think I've been writing about Force Whitley for ten years now almost as a pro, you know, it's coming up on that.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's kind of crazy.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that kicks it to you.

[SPEAKER_03]: So who is your prospects of bucks?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, my prospects of bucks is a player that I'm truly on a soap box for and that's Jackson Wiggins of the Cubs.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think a guy that's creeping into kind of top one hundred conversation, he's just behind like, you know, boisteros and you know, Casey and

[SPEAKER_02]: And now contire in some of those top guys.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I think there's a case that he could maybe even be better in some of these trade negotiations.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've been hearing that teams have been more interested in Jackson Wiggins than maybe some of those position players.

[SPEAKER_02]: Some of that might be a need fit and just a value.

[SPEAKER_02]: you know, other of a pitching prospect, but I do think this is a guy that probably shouldn't be eligible very shortly, regardless of where he's he's playing baseball in a week.

[SPEAKER_02]: shouldn't be eligible for a prospect so box because he's on the top and hundred list and you know I think you dig into the stuff you know it's a it's a fast ball that checks all the boxes you know he sits ninety six to ninety seven miles per hour can ramp it up to a hundred miles per hour he's got a low release height with you know really clean backspin a lot of efficiency that you know creates ride

[SPEAKER_02]: From a low release, he has that low VA fastball gets extension.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's six foot six doing that, so it's not like he's just the short guy that's kind of gaming the fastball playing.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's got real power and plus fastball traits.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think you could put a seventy on this pitch pretty easily.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he's dominated the miners this year across high A and then mostly in double A this season.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, hitters have hit one, fifty nine, three, oh five, two, thirty eight against that fastball.

[SPEAKER_02]: And to put it in perspective, that's a pitch he's throwing, fifty eight percent of the time and they're putting up those numbers against it.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thirty four percent misrate, which is really high for a fastball.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a lot of chases for a fastball as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: At, you know, twenty eight percent, it's a lot of swinging strikes the top of the zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're just above it.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then he's got a plus slider that sits eighty seven to eighty nine miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll touch the lower nineties.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, tighter break on that kind of cuttery.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's a really good swing and miss pitch that generates chase swings as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, a forty four percent mystery against that pitch batters this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: If hit one forty six one sixty seven two twenty against the slider.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it's shown some growth with the change up as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: Drives a lot of ground balls with that pitch.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a fifty percent ground ball rate against the change up all generating whips at a forty seven percent rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's as high as chase rate pitch of his arsenal thirty six percent.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's allowed him to really neutralize left handed hitters and kind of own.

[SPEAKER_02]: that, you know, the inner half of the plate when he throws it there and then gets guys to chase in the outer half and allows him to sort of set up a slider back door.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think we're seeing the maturation of a pitcher here with Jackson Wiggins.

[SPEAKER_02]: Some of that we've always known physically and stuff-wise had all the ingredients dating back to when he was a prep prospect and then went to Arkansas that was some health stuff and really never got his opportunity.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're finally seeing him

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, a year plus from returning from surgery, really taking that step forward as a pitcher and, you know, kind of brewing all the ingredients together in terms of the stuff, the pitchability, the execution and the physicality that's needed to deal with the wear and tear as a starting pitcher in the major league.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think he's a really exciting huge green arrow up guy for me in twenty twenty five.

[SPEAKER_03]: He is an interesting one and we'll see like he's an interesting one that could affect, you know, the big league club.

[SPEAKER_03]: In some way or another, you know, as we record this, you know, whether that's being a key player in a trade or whether that's being someone who could come up and join the big league club at some point at the late in the season.

[SPEAKER_03]: So we'll see.

[SPEAKER_03]: But that's another prospect podcast with me, JJ Cooper as well as Jeff Ponce.

[SPEAKER_03]: We will be back again next week.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think next week we may have Josh Norris joining us

[SPEAKER_03]: I think we're going to do a lot of basically the Bears Complex League adventures because Josh has been to the Arizona Complex League, the Florida Complex League, and the Dominican Summer League, and now that the ACL and FCLs are over, he's already done top twenty prospect list for both of those.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's working on the DSL, I think it's going to be right now we're saying top thirty, who knows how many players maybe on that before it's all said and done.

[SPEAKER_03]: But

[SPEAKER_03]: with all that coming together.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would think we're gonna have Josh on to talk about that and we'll share some video from all of his adventures as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: on next week's Baseball America Prospect podcast and YouTube video.

[SPEAKER_03]: We thank you for the download if you're podcasting, we thank you for reviews, helps other people see it, and for liking and subscribing on YouTube.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if you do enjoy this check out a lot of stuff, we have a lot of stuff over at the Baseball America YouTube channel, just search Baseball America on YouTube.

[SPEAKER_03]: You will find it very easily if you are listening to the podcast and want to check out some of the videos.

[SPEAKER_03]: For Jeff, I'm JJ.

[SPEAKER_03]: So long everybody.