00:02.703 --> 00:06.084 [SPEAKER_01]: Today, we want to look now at the signing deadline is over.

00:06.224 --> 00:10.865 [SPEAKER_01]: At what teams got the most value in their twenty twenty five MLB drafts.

00:11.165 --> 00:18.347 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a piece at Baseball America Carlos wrote, Carlos has been covering the twenty twenty five draft for over a year now.

00:18.467 --> 00:18.667 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.

00:18.687 --> 00:20.428 [SPEAKER_01]: Now time to put it in bed, move along.

00:21.048 --> 00:33.154 [SPEAKER_01]: Carlos, great to see you and let's just jump straight into it, which is what are a couple of teams that and you can explain what we mean by value, but what are a couple of teams that stand out is getting great value in their twenty twenty five

00:33.807 --> 00:40.773 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so this is an exercise we've done for a few years now, trying to just like put some more context around the draft.

00:40.833 --> 00:49.600 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the signing deadline passing allows us to really look at the class and see how teams valued players in a way that the actual pick order might not.

00:49.720 --> 00:58.547 [SPEAKER_00]: And so for this exercise, I really wanted to see like, okay, if the BA board, we spend a lot of time making the BA five hundred list in our draft reporting.

00:58.587 --> 01:01.430 [SPEAKER_00]: If the BA board is analyzing all of these teams drafts,

01:01.910 --> 01:02.811 [SPEAKER_00]: and all of these picks.

01:03.011 --> 01:13.076 [SPEAKER_00]: One of the picks and one of the teams that the overall draft classes that the B-A board really likes and one of the classes and picks that maybe the B-A board is a little bit more skeptical of.

01:13.156 --> 01:20.459 [SPEAKER_00]: So what we've done is we've basically taken the slot values for all of the three hundred and fifteen picks that come with slot values.

01:20.940 --> 01:24.141 [SPEAKER_00]: We've layered those onto the top three hundred and fifteen players in the class to

01:25.502 --> 01:28.344 [SPEAKER_00]: Give a sort of quasi-BA, B-A-F-I-F-I-F-Hundred value.

01:28.584 --> 01:39.432 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think this is perfect because the way that talent is distributed in any given draft class is not always in the same sort of ascending order that the slot values are determined.

01:39.492 --> 01:40.373 [SPEAKER_00]: I also think too.

01:40.773 --> 01:42.335 [SPEAKER_00]: If you just look at the top three players,

01:43.478 --> 01:46.781 [SPEAKER_00]: Those all come with bonuses that are bigger than any bonus that was handed out this year.

01:47.241 --> 01:52.485 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think at the very top, you may be had to discount just how viable those players are relative to what the industry thinks.

01:52.525 --> 01:55.607 [SPEAKER_00]: So there are some some nuances here, but essentially we're just trying to

01:56.882 --> 02:00.483 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, put monetary values on how the BA board views these.

02:00.583 --> 02:01.603 [SPEAKER_00]: We sum it all up.

02:01.664 --> 02:03.364 [SPEAKER_00]: We come do this for the entire draft.

02:03.384 --> 02:08.846 [SPEAKER_00]: And then we get at the end, um, kind of a total BA value board.

02:09.606 --> 02:21.990 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, and you can also plug this in with each team's individual bonus pool and subtract those numbers to get like, okay, which are the teams that did much better than we expected based on our values and based on their bonus pools, um, in which maybe did.

02:23.190 --> 02:24.671 [SPEAKER_00]: not quite as good as we would have expected.

02:24.751 --> 02:26.613 [SPEAKER_00]: So that's kind of what the process is.

02:26.673 --> 02:27.553 [SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully that's clear.

02:29.214 --> 02:35.299 [SPEAKER_00]: The team at the very top in terms of coming away from the draft of the most BA value is probably not surprising.

02:35.359 --> 02:36.579 [SPEAKER_00]: It's the Baltimore Orioles.

02:37.060 --> 02:38.621 [SPEAKER_00]: They had the most pick capital in the class.

02:38.681 --> 02:42.744 [SPEAKER_00]: We wrote about why that was a reason why they were the most fascinating team in this draft.

02:43.404 --> 03:12.163 [SPEAKER_00]: ahead of it and they had the the biggest bonus bullet nineteen million in terms of total b a value we had them coming away with almost twenty two million in b a value in part of that is just because they had so many picks but we also see them as having really great value uh... they took players who are ranked higher on our board than were the the orials got them and then also we think a lot of their actual signing bonuses they ended up these players were good values well so the the orials lead every team and it's a fairly significant gap here uh...

03:13.244 --> 03:15.165 [SPEAKER_00]: And we can kind of head in any direction you want after that.

03:15.225 --> 03:17.126 [SPEAKER_00]: Any questions you have in the other team.

03:17.186 --> 03:19.227 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's the most as the most value.

03:19.707 --> 03:22.549 [SPEAKER_01]: But again, that's kind of largely dependent on the fact.

03:23.091 --> 03:29.153 [SPEAKER_01]: that we think that they took payers who are, you know, higher rated on our board that got to make, you know, at the price, they got them and all that.

03:29.713 --> 03:33.175 [SPEAKER_01]: But as you said, like they started with a nineteen million dollar bonus pool.

03:33.675 --> 03:45.939 [SPEAKER_01]: So they had a larger pool of money to start with a team that jumps out to me on this is the athletics because if you look at their the value that they got compared to the bonus pool.

03:46.662 --> 04:02.898 [SPEAKER_01]: They had a ten point five million dollar and a little bit more than that bonus pool and your calculations are that they got fourteen point five million dollars of BA value is that term out of it that really does jump out to me like what was some of the picks that really kind of stood out for the

04:03.637 --> 04:09.258 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so their difference in total BA value versus their actual bonus pool was just under four million.

04:09.298 --> 04:20.640 [SPEAKER_00]: That was the most, so basically if you want to think of that as like teams who spent the most efficiently, that positive value basically says that the BA board views this draft is kind of the most savvy.

04:21.321 --> 04:25.081 [SPEAKER_00]: We like their picks most if you're just looking at BA value.

04:25.121 --> 04:27.802 [SPEAKER_00]: I think if you look at their first three picks really,

04:28.662 --> 04:38.948 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, they are all strong value plays Jamie Arnold at pick, um, eleven, uh, Devon Taylor in the second round of pick forty eight and then Gavin Turley.

04:39.872 --> 04:41.273 [SPEAKER_00]: their fourth round pick at one ten.

04:41.413 --> 04:44.574 [SPEAKER_00]: All of these are players who we had ranked higher on our board.

04:44.634 --> 04:47.635 [SPEAKER_00]: They were six thirty fourth and sixty six overall respectively.

04:47.655 --> 04:49.696 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think what what you'll see here.

04:50.616 --> 05:01.440 [SPEAKER_00]: The teams that the be a board really likes that the teams on the extremes are generally generally teams that in the first five rounds took players at a much better or worse spot.

05:02.180 --> 05:05.901 [SPEAKER_00]: on our draft rankings, then where they were actually selected and typically where they were paid.

05:05.961 --> 05:09.202 [SPEAKER_00]: The money, the money is not always one-to-one where they're selected.

05:09.242 --> 05:15.204 [SPEAKER_00]: So we see the Jamie Arnold pick as having an excess of one-point-five million dollars in value.

05:16.025 --> 05:21.726 [SPEAKER_00]: His actual signing bonus was just under six million dollars based on the BA-five hundred.

05:21.806 --> 05:25.928 [SPEAKER_00]: We viewed Jamie Arnold as a seven-point-five million dollar value in this class.

05:26.948 --> 05:33.850 [SPEAKER_00]: Devon Taylor is three hundred twenty thousand dollars in excess value, Gavin Turley, seven hundred thousand dollars in excess value.

05:34.350 --> 05:42.312 [SPEAKER_00]: So those are are kind of doing the heavy lifting for for the A's here and make them kind of the most efficient in the class for us.

05:42.812 --> 05:48.093 [SPEAKER_01]: To go back to Baltimore for a minute, since they had the largest value work, some of the mix that really jumped out for the for Baltimore.

05:49.336 --> 05:56.723 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, again, I think it's like basically all of their top picks up pulling up their their board now to go through them, but I can always one that jumps out.

05:56.763 --> 05:58.525 [SPEAKER_01]: That was almost two million dollars of value.

05:58.965 --> 05:59.306 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

05:59.786 --> 06:03.310 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that is their most like, their most positive value pick.

06:03.330 --> 06:10.336 [SPEAKER_00]: If he was a lawyer, he was our sixteenth ranked player in the class with a BA value of nearly five million dollars.

06:11.037 --> 06:19.348 [SPEAKER_00]: The Orioles took him with the thirty first overall pick and signed him to just a three million dollar bonus, so it's almost two million dollars in surplus value there.

06:19.889 --> 06:23.193 [SPEAKER_00]: Like Irish, we had him ranked as the thirteen player in the class.

06:23.213 --> 06:26.718 [SPEAKER_00]: He went nineteen, signed for an actual bonus of four point four million.

06:26.778 --> 06:28.240 [SPEAKER_00]: We viewed him as a five point five.

06:28.860 --> 06:31.643 [SPEAKER_00]: Million dollar talent just based on this formula.

06:31.683 --> 06:33.784 [SPEAKER_00]: They also got positive value with cannon bowdying.

06:34.285 --> 06:42.031 [SPEAKER_00]: Not nearly to the extent that these other two had we actually had negative value with slater to run because he did sign for a pretty hefty bonus.

06:42.111 --> 06:43.112 [SPEAKER_00]: He signed for four million.

06:43.132 --> 06:50.398 [SPEAKER_00]: We viewed him as a three point one million dollar value, but then you add on even more value after that with Joseph Jerwa at pick fifty eight.

06:50.458 --> 06:53.361 [SPEAKER_00]: He was also nearly five hundred thousand dollars in the next.

06:54.962 --> 06:56.403 [SPEAKER_01]: We're making generalizations here.

06:56.503 --> 07:03.165 [SPEAKER_01]: One of the jumps out right here is is we're doing a board from one to five hundred three hundred fifteen players for this.

07:04.145 --> 07:07.466 [SPEAKER_01]: The negotiating leverage of different players is very different.

07:08.107 --> 07:11.048 [SPEAKER_01]: More so than the talent is different for these players, right?

07:11.388 --> 07:20.531 [SPEAKER_01]: So you take a guy like Slater DeBron and his negotiating leverage may be higher than a player who may be more talented.

07:21.431 --> 07:23.352 [SPEAKER_01]: And that kind of factors into this as well, right?

07:24.120 --> 07:24.340 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.

07:24.400 --> 07:24.520 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

07:24.560 --> 07:26.422 [SPEAKER_00]: I think there are just so many moving pieces here.

07:27.023 --> 07:29.705 [SPEAKER_00]: That leverage component is a big one obviously.

07:30.226 --> 07:33.569 [SPEAKER_00]: The players are not getting paid exactly in terms of how teams view the talent.

07:33.589 --> 07:35.271 [SPEAKER_00]: It is the talent part of that.

07:35.311 --> 07:36.872 [SPEAKER_00]: And also, do you come with leverage or not?

07:38.173 --> 07:41.957 [SPEAKER_00]: How much are you able to push back in the negotiations given the leverage that you do have?

07:42.337 --> 07:43.558 [SPEAKER_00]: And I also think, too, this year.

07:44.539 --> 07:57.842 [SPEAKER_00]: It probably would make more sense if we had a more gradual sort of leveling off of the values for each player because we did hear consistently throughout this draft cycle that it was hard to separate players in this class.

07:57.982 --> 08:02.203 [SPEAKER_00]: So if I just like pull up some of these values we're talking through at the very top.

08:03.003 --> 08:10.345 [SPEAKER_00]: So if I pull up our list of players, we have Ethan Holiday as basically valued as an eleven billion dollar player because that's the one one slot value.

08:10.365 --> 08:14.046 [SPEAKER_00]: He's number one overall on our board and then you go down to Kate Anderson

08:14.606 --> 08:22.316 [SPEAKER_00]: fourth overall he comes with an eight point seven million dollar valuation now what I look at you and say okay I think Ethan holiday is worth

08:23.374 --> 08:25.755 [SPEAKER_00]: nearly two and a half million more dollars than Kate Anderson.

08:26.316 --> 08:27.136 [SPEAKER_00]: No, I don't.

08:27.336 --> 08:41.483 [SPEAKER_01]: And we're saying that what eleven million is something that basically we're giving one one sure full slot value where there's basically been one player in the twenty twenty so you could make that argument for.

08:41.783 --> 08:44.605 [SPEAKER_01]: We happen to be one of the two best pictures in baseball.

08:45.065 --> 08:46.946 [SPEAKER_01]: less than a year and a half after he was drafted.

08:47.746 --> 09:03.633 [SPEAKER_00]: It's interesting, too, because I do think that clearly the industry didn't view any players in this class as being worth the top three slot value in the draft, but also if this is a free market system, all the players in the top fifteen first round will be worth way more than these slot values, because they can negotiate with any team.

09:03.673 --> 09:05.494 [SPEAKER_00]: So there are a lot of moving pieces here.

09:05.514 --> 09:07.175 [SPEAKER_00]: I do wonder if using

09:07.995 --> 09:26.820 [SPEAKER_00]: Our BA grades in the formula we have for prospect valuation that we used to do our org talent rankings might be a better way to look at this, but I've kind of come back to just using the slot that is that teams are operating with it seems the most simple to me, but it does come with some of those like I think the best way to look at this is

09:27.600 --> 09:30.524 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't get too caught up in like small differences.

09:30.584 --> 09:33.587 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the best way to come away from this is what are the extremes.

09:34.609 --> 09:45.422 [SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at like maybe the top value top five team values on our board versus the bottom five team values that probably will give you a better way to look at this class directionally if that makes sense.

09:45.862 --> 09:52.303 [SPEAKER_01]: to give a very long ago example of what these players could make if it wasn't for the bonus pools.

09:52.863 --> 10:03.046 [SPEAKER_01]: There was nineteen ninety six where there were four first round picked who were declared free agents because their teams did not offer them a contract in the proper amount of time.

10:03.646 --> 10:07.967 [SPEAKER_01]: Travis Lee got ten million dollars in nineteen ninety six.

10:08.607 --> 10:09.367 [SPEAKER_01]: We're talking about

10:10.067 --> 10:17.143 [SPEAKER_01]: Ethan Holiday having a leavened dollar, you know, slot, you know, or the one-one pick having a leavened dollar slot.

10:17.965 --> 10:18.266 [SPEAKER_01]: Now.

10:19.732 --> 10:24.895 [SPEAKER_01]: Think of what the MLB salaries were in nineteen ninety six compared to what they are in twenty twenty five.

10:25.336 --> 10:30.819 [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, these players would be getting massively more than this in just a true free market system.

10:31.139 --> 10:37.643 [SPEAKER_01]: I will also note with that this is a system that is collectively bargain between major league baseball and the players association.

10:37.703 --> 10:44.528 [SPEAKER_01]: Essentially the player association has long traded limiting draft bonuses to get more money to big leaders.

10:44.968 --> 10:45.949 [SPEAKER_01]: That's how it works.

10:46.289 --> 10:53.116 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so really quickly and you guys can get the full like list and see all these numbers for every single team if you check out the piece of baseball merkeh.com.

10:53.156 --> 11:00.423 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think it'd be worth maybe just going over the best teams by total value, the worst teams and then kind of the most efficient, least efficient.

11:00.483 --> 11:06.990 [SPEAKER_00]: But for kind of running through that total BA value list, so the teams that came away with what we view is the best draft halls this year.

11:07.010 --> 11:08.952 [SPEAKER_00]: It would be Baltimore at the top

11:09.512 --> 11:11.974 [SPEAKER_00]: Like I said earlier, almost twenty two million dollars would be a value.

11:12.314 --> 11:15.536 [SPEAKER_00]: Then the Rockies with nineteen point six million dollars and be a value.

11:16.076 --> 11:20.199 [SPEAKER_00]: The nationals who picked first over all this year with eighteen point four million dollars in total value.

11:21.120 --> 11:23.421 [SPEAKER_00]: The Marlins at just over eighteen million dollars.

11:23.681 --> 11:27.304 [SPEAKER_00]: The Mariners at seventeen point seven and then also just lump in Boston.

11:28.204 --> 11:30.666 [SPEAKER_00]: They're here six overall, fifteen point seven million.

11:30.706 --> 11:34.429 [SPEAKER_00]: I think Boston is interesting for a reason we'll get back to in a bit.

11:34.529 --> 11:40.232 [SPEAKER_00]: But then at the bottom, I think there are a lot of usual suspects and teams you would expect at the bottom of our total value list.

11:40.633 --> 11:43.555 [SPEAKER_00]: The Metz, the Yankees, the Astros are all bottom three.

11:44.055 --> 11:45.836 [SPEAKER_00]: They were all picking lower in the first round.

11:45.936 --> 11:47.557 [SPEAKER_00]: The Metz and the Yankees had their pickstrop.

11:47.597 --> 11:49.678 [SPEAKER_00]: They had fewer picks to work with.

11:49.738 --> 11:52.460 [SPEAKER_00]: So they had some of the smallest bonus pools in the class.

11:52.480 --> 11:55.522 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think those all make sense to be at the bottom of this list.

11:55.582 --> 12:00.485 [SPEAKER_00]: The Metz are at the very bottom, three point two million dollars in total BA value than the Yankees at four point two million.

12:01.065 --> 12:03.646 [SPEAKER_00]: The Astros at seven million essentially.

12:03.666 --> 12:12.672 [SPEAKER_00]: And then I think Detroit, the Tigers, coming in at fourth least value from our BA value of seven point four, they're one of the more interesting teams.

12:13.612 --> 12:16.674 [SPEAKER_00]: kind of on the opposite end of the spectrum for Boston.

12:16.714 --> 12:26.701 [SPEAKER_00]: So if we're toggling over now and looking at the difference in total BA value versus total bonus pool, this number is basically telling you

12:28.018 --> 12:38.030 [SPEAKER_00]: How well did you do in the draft, according to the BA board, versus the expectations for your draft, given your bonus pool, capital, and your pit capital?

12:38.230 --> 12:40.673 [SPEAKER_00]: And we've already mentioned the athletics topping that board.

12:41.194 --> 12:43.877 [SPEAKER_00]: The Rockies also come out quite well at three point nine.

12:44.357 --> 12:47.862 [SPEAKER_00]: A lot of that has to do with the fact that they got Ethan Holiday, the normal player in the class.

12:48.402 --> 12:49.463 [SPEAKER_00]: at the fourth overall pick.

12:49.503 --> 12:53.125 [SPEAKER_00]: They had some other picks that we contingent like further down the board.

12:53.866 --> 13:01.891 [SPEAKER_00]: Third, we have the red socks, which I think is one of the more interesting teams because they had a total bonus pool of twelve point four million.

13:01.911 --> 13:04.833 [SPEAKER_00]: It was a very middle of the pack in terms of just bonus pool to work with.

13:04.893 --> 13:06.354 [SPEAKER_00]: They're picking in the middle of the first round.

13:06.694 --> 13:10.137 [SPEAKER_00]: We have them with fifteen point seven million in total BA value.

13:10.577 --> 13:13.479 [SPEAKER_00]: That is the third best difference of all of these teams.

13:13.579 --> 13:17.742 [SPEAKER_00]: The braves and the guardians also come out quite well in this sort of efficiency.

13:18.342 --> 13:25.704 [SPEAKER_00]: category, these are all the top five teams and kind of the most efficiently spending based on the be a board at the very bottom of this list.

13:25.724 --> 13:39.967 [SPEAKER_00]: You got the tigers who are the least efficient, um, three and a half million dollars less than we would have expected than the angels, three million less Royals, Metz, Rangers all in the two million to three million less than we would have expected range.

13:39.987 --> 13:40.987 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm throwing a lot at you.

13:41.727 --> 13:42.729 [SPEAKER_00]: JJ, what's most interesting?

13:42.769 --> 13:44.191 [SPEAKER_01]: So let's talk about the Tigers for a minute.

13:44.472 --> 13:44.572 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

13:44.652 --> 13:47.838 [SPEAKER_01]: So the key things here, I would say that the really jump out of their first two picks.

13:48.339 --> 13:53.107 [SPEAKER_01]: They took Jordan Yost, who we had rated in the eighties I believe as their first round pick.

13:53.989 --> 14:00.933 [SPEAKER_01]: And by our reporting, they were not the only team who was considering him as a back of the first round player.

14:01.534 --> 14:06.857 [SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, we're acknowledging, again, we have some intellectual humility here, right?

14:06.877 --> 14:09.798 [SPEAKER_01]: We're not saying, oh, the tigers are idiots.

14:10.299 --> 14:12.480 [SPEAKER_01]: Clearly, they don't know what they're doing or anything like that.

14:12.580 --> 14:15.942 [SPEAKER_01]: We're saying, here's our board as we had it from the reporting we had.

14:16.442 --> 14:17.223 [SPEAKER_01]: And here's what they did.

14:17.723 --> 14:28.191 [SPEAKER_01]: And then Michael Oliveto, but the other thing I would say with both those players is both of those players were also tab as kind of fast rising guys leading into the draft.

14:28.980 --> 14:37.726 [SPEAKER_01]: So let's, you know, talk a little bit about those, like, then the flip side of it is they had thick doom and so who was probably one of the guys who was on the board the longest.

14:38.046 --> 14:56.459 [SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, again, we'll also acknowledge there are always other things that we cannot get access to that sometimes can play a little bit of role both in negotiating but also, again, I'm not saying some doomsday case, but for instance, if a player has an injury or something like that, medicals or something that are often very difficult to, you know,

14:56.939 --> 14:58.940 [SPEAKER_01]: to glean things like that.

14:59.340 --> 15:02.342 [SPEAKER_01]: But look at the tigers and what do you see there?

15:03.663 --> 15:05.524 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so you mentioned Nick Dumanel.

15:05.544 --> 15:12.388 [SPEAKER_00]: It's funny to look at the tigers because Nick Dumanel was like the seventh best individual value of any signing and this huge class based on our board.

15:12.508 --> 15:14.629 [SPEAKER_00]: He was in the eighth round for the tigers.

15:14.689 --> 15:16.390 [SPEAKER_00]: We had him ranked fifty-third overall.

15:16.430 --> 15:17.931 [SPEAKER_00]: He went to in June, forty-ninth overall.

15:17.971 --> 15:18.852 [SPEAKER_00]: We viewed that pick as

15:19.492 --> 15:23.174 [SPEAKER_00]: more than one point five million dollars in surplus value.

15:23.794 --> 15:26.615 [SPEAKER_00]: But for the tigers, it really is at the very top for them.

15:26.755 --> 15:32.278 [SPEAKER_00]: All of their first three picks really Jordan Yoos, Michael Olivello, Oliveeto, excuse me, Malachi with her spoon.

15:32.678 --> 15:38.621 [SPEAKER_00]: We're all just players that the tigers took in spots that were a little bit more aggressive than where the be a board had at Jordan Yoos.

15:38.661 --> 15:40.461 [SPEAKER_00]: We ranked as the eighty second player in the class.

15:40.501 --> 15:41.502 [SPEAKER_00]: He went twenty-fourth overall.

15:41.989 --> 15:44.812 [SPEAKER_00]: signed for a three point two four million dollar signing bonus.

15:45.392 --> 15:55.682 [SPEAKER_00]: We've viewed him as just under a million dollars and be a value based on our board Michael Oliveto thirty fourth overall pick signs for two point four million dollars and he sees me joining a sign for three point two.

15:55.702 --> 15:58.164 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I said two point four or three point two for him.

15:59.125 --> 16:03.309 [SPEAKER_00]: We had him rank one seventeen viewed him as a six hundred and fifty thousand dollar value.

16:03.349 --> 16:04.770 [SPEAKER_00]: So with both those two picks I think

16:06.251 --> 16:11.053 [SPEAKER_00]: The BA board view those is like two of the worst values, two of the top three worst values.

16:11.593 --> 16:14.355 [SPEAKER_00]: And again, like you're mentioning, we don't have perfect information here.

16:14.415 --> 16:19.717 [SPEAKER_00]: I would never go out and say, like, oh, this German geospik is not good because he was a split camp player.

16:19.757 --> 16:21.938 [SPEAKER_00]: There were teams who viewed geost as

16:22.678 --> 16:26.101 [SPEAKER_00]: Sort of Kellin Lindsey ish, which is the range he's going in on the board now.

16:26.822 --> 16:28.843 [SPEAKER_00]: Contact oriented doesn't have a lot of power now.

16:28.863 --> 16:30.485 [SPEAKER_00]: His fast chance is to get shortstop.

16:30.905 --> 16:39.352 [SPEAKER_00]: I know the team's who viewed Jordan Yoast is like a definite shortstop and really bought into the idea that he would layer on some strength and add impact to who's strong about to ball skills.

16:40.330 --> 16:45.671 [SPEAKER_00]: You'd have him a lot more favorably than some of the teams who are more questionable about whether or not he would stick a short stop.

16:46.012 --> 16:48.572 [SPEAKER_00]: We're kind of more questionable about the impact he would gain.

16:48.932 --> 16:51.973 [SPEAKER_00]: And so there was a wide range of opinions in the industry.

16:52.033 --> 16:56.574 [SPEAKER_00]: We tried to kind of like hit that needle in the middle of those extremes.

16:57.415 --> 16:59.935 [SPEAKER_00]: And clearly the tigers are one of the teams that are just most bullish.

17:00.756 --> 17:02.516 [SPEAKER_00]: And I do think it is worth just reiterating.

17:02.556 --> 17:05.637 [SPEAKER_00]: There have been players in the past that we were light on and teams just

17:06.277 --> 17:16.809 [SPEAKER_01]: have better reads Evan Carter is the Evan Carter example of this so it wasn't that teams literally a thing was much higher on than everyone else and

17:17.712 --> 17:18.152 [SPEAKER_01]: They were right.

17:18.692 --> 17:18.953 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.

17:19.013 --> 17:21.894 [SPEAKER_01]: So like, yeah, we're again, we're not, we're not saying this.

17:22.374 --> 17:24.135 [SPEAKER_01]: This is not Melchipard Jr.

17:24.175 --> 17:30.877 [SPEAKER_01]: saying, you know, these, all these teams are idiots to door Sanders should have gone off the board, you know, four rounds earlier, whatever.

17:30.937 --> 17:32.938 [SPEAKER_01]: We're saying, here's our board.

17:33.178 --> 17:37.340 [SPEAKER_01]: We're presenting the information and we'll see, you know, as the years go along.

17:37.720 --> 17:41.962 [SPEAKER_01]: But it's not, it's not something where we're like, oh, Jordan, you know, so we have no idea who that player is.

17:42.122 --> 17:42.762 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, they took a note.

17:42.802 --> 17:44.783 [SPEAKER_01]: It's like, yeah, he's a split camp guy.

17:45.363 --> 17:46.104 [SPEAKER_01]: They see this.

17:46.884 --> 17:48.285 [SPEAKER_01]: the other team sees something else.

17:48.666 --> 17:48.866 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.

17:49.406 --> 17:57.233 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so it'll be really interesting just to watch, specifically, Yost and Elavetto's development over the next few years, because I do think like what those players turned into ultimately determined.

17:57.253 --> 18:00.095 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, was this a successful draft for the Tigers?

18:01.397 --> 18:10.524 [SPEAKER_00]: Did they just nail once again these sort of hitters, high school profiles that they've really gravitated towards in recent years, and maybe should Yost and Elavetto have been guys who were higher up on

18:11.265 --> 18:14.027 [SPEAKER_00]: sort of boards like ours earlier in the process.

18:14.087 --> 18:16.329 [SPEAKER_00]: So definitely fun one fun one to watch.

18:16.689 --> 18:18.190 [SPEAKER_00]: And maybe the best way you could do this.

18:18.830 --> 18:33.641 [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to throw in that humility that we have with the process is which are the drafts that are most like buy the books be a board and which are the most off the board sort of draft classes that might be the most maybe a more accurate way of saying it.

18:34.543 --> 18:36.728 [SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, what else are you going to talk through individual values?

18:37.129 --> 18:37.911 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, let's go.

18:37.951 --> 18:39.975 [SPEAKER_01]: So let's look at some of the individual values.

18:40.376 --> 18:42.521 [SPEAKER_01]: I would say the other ones that jump out of the top.

18:44.213 --> 18:49.114 [SPEAKER_01]: The braves had a very interesting draft, I feel like in Hawaii state.

18:49.454 --> 18:53.935 [SPEAKER_01]: So Alex Lodis, who, you know, we had one of the best values in this.

18:54.075 --> 18:56.476 [SPEAKER_01]: And then, but that, you know, that was the savings.

18:56.756 --> 19:04.738 [SPEAKER_01]: They saved on multiple top of the graph guys and ended up spending more on their fourth round pick than they spent on their first round pick.

19:04.778 --> 19:07.338 [SPEAKER_01]: So that always sets you up to be an interesting draft.

19:07.358 --> 19:08.919 [SPEAKER_01]: But like that was one that really jumps out.

19:09.239 --> 19:10.759 [SPEAKER_01]: But I would say like you mentioned the Rockies.

19:11.239 --> 19:12.620 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not just eats in holiday.

19:13.000 --> 19:13.600 [SPEAKER_01]: The Rockies

19:14.360 --> 19:16.706 [SPEAKER_01]: who I would say there are rocky fans out there.

19:16.746 --> 19:17.928 [SPEAKER_01]: They need some good news.

19:18.450 --> 19:20.655 [SPEAKER_01]: Talk about the rocky strapped if you would for a little bit.

19:21.543 --> 19:29.927 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so in addition to Ethan Holiday, the BA board really likes the Max Baloo pick at seventy-fourth overall, just kind of looking at their board here.

19:29.967 --> 19:33.468 [SPEAKER_00]: They took Ethan Holiday, JB Militz and Max Baloo, Ethan Hedges.

19:34.669 --> 19:42.852 [SPEAKER_00]: Most of their surplus value in this draft is coming from Ethan Holiday, which was more than two million dollars in value, one of the best overall values in the class.

19:42.872 --> 19:43.873 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it was the fourth best.

19:45.273 --> 19:59.760 [SPEAKER_00]: after Seth Hernandez with the Pirates, Alex Lodis with the Braves, Tyson with the Red Sox, Ethan Holiday checks in number four, just again, because he had such a big valuation on him as the defector, not the defector, the one-one on our board, but the max billu pic was also

20:00.900 --> 20:02.262 [SPEAKER_00]: A really, really valuable pick.

20:02.862 --> 20:06.885 [SPEAKER_00]: In our minds, he ranked as the third overall prospect in the class.

20:06.905 --> 20:08.627 [SPEAKER_00]: The rock has gotten to seventy-fourth overall.

20:09.407 --> 20:12.210 [SPEAKER_00]: I still don't really know how he kind of fell that far.

20:12.250 --> 20:13.971 [SPEAKER_00]: Signed for just one point one million dollars.

20:14.011 --> 20:15.653 [SPEAKER_00]: We viewed him as like a fringe first round.

20:15.993 --> 20:21.117 [SPEAKER_00]: Pick, I thought for sure he was going to be gone in the comp range or early second round at the latest.

20:22.438 --> 20:25.500 [SPEAKER_00]: and he doesn't even go and get, I think you got exactly slot value.

20:25.560 --> 20:28.983 [SPEAKER_00]: So it's not like he was some over-paid college hitter in that range.

20:29.143 --> 20:34.607 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he's a little bit more because of the injury, maybe he's a little bit more because of the corner outfit profile.

20:35.668 --> 20:41.012 [SPEAKER_00]: But both based on the BA board, which views this as a one point seven, one point eight million dollar value,

20:41.752 --> 20:45.115 [SPEAKER_00]: And me personally, like, I really like this pick quite a bit.

20:45.655 --> 20:46.756 [SPEAKER_00]: You look down the board.

20:46.896 --> 20:54.121 [SPEAKER_00]: They're also a Tanner Sach in the eighth round is another pick that the the board likes quite a bit.

20:55.702 --> 20:58.144 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, those are kind of the big ones to mention with the Rockies.

20:59.891 --> 21:05.694 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, before we wrap this up, I do wanna put you on the spot for like, because we said, we have intellectual humility on this.

21:06.615 --> 21:12.658 [SPEAKER_01]: What is, if you were gonna say like five years for now, I'll give you a second to prep on this.

21:12.718 --> 21:17.080 [SPEAKER_01]: The pick that jumps out to you is like, that could really end up being a steal.

21:18.041 --> 21:21.903 [SPEAKER_01]: And as there, another one that really does maybe leave you scratching your head.

21:22.663 --> 21:26.085 [SPEAKER_01]: Are there a couple that jump out or want at least on each side?

21:27.170 --> 21:39.635 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, the pick, this is the biggest layup for me because I was saying it, even in the lead up to the draft is just based on the industry's hesitancy to take prep right in a pitcher's high in the draft.

21:40.435 --> 21:51.300 [SPEAKER_00]: I kind of knew that Seth Hernandez, who ranked number two on our board, and so he came with a ten point two million dollar BA value, who's never gonna get that in this draft, just given the dynamics of that.

21:51.360 --> 21:53.461 [SPEAKER_00]: But like he went sixth overall,

21:54.201 --> 22:03.145 [SPEAKER_00]: He was the best individual value in the class based on our board, three million dollars in value that also shatters the best value from a year ago.

22:03.205 --> 22:09.528 [SPEAKER_00]: I think JJ weather holds, which has actually looked pretty good in hindsight a year later as a great value for the Cardinals.

22:09.568 --> 22:15.111 [SPEAKER_00]: JJ weather hold was just over two million dollars in surplus value as the top value from the twenty twenty four class.

22:15.771 --> 22:20.974 [SPEAKER_00]: I do think Seth Hernandez has a chance to just be a really impressive steel in this huge class.

22:21.014 --> 22:22.895 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we talked about it all spring.

22:23.915 --> 22:26.076 [SPEAKER_00]: we look at undergreen, guys like Jackson Joe.

22:27.057 --> 22:35.381 [SPEAKER_00]: If the top of this class has some struggles offensive on the offensive side, I do think Seth Hernandez still has as much upside as anyone in this class.

22:35.421 --> 22:41.264 [SPEAKER_00]: If he winds up being this front of the rotation pitcher that he has the tools to be, it's going to look like a phenomenal pick.

22:41.284 --> 22:45.746 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the pirates in particular, they come out of this exercise looking pretty good.

22:46.446 --> 22:53.310 [SPEAKER_00]: And it makes me wonder, they would have been like a top five team on our total value if they were able to sign Angel Survantace.

22:53.870 --> 22:55.611 [SPEAKER_00]: They're second round pick who they did not sign.

22:56.092 --> 22:58.273 [SPEAKER_00]: So that's the pick that I come away liking the best.

22:58.653 --> 22:59.634 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the pick that are bored.

23:00.154 --> 23:01.315 [SPEAKER_00]: Comes away liking the best.

23:01.595 --> 23:01.975 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, go ahead.

23:02.436 --> 23:03.757 [SPEAKER_01]: I would just interject on that.

23:03.957 --> 23:08.760 [SPEAKER_01]: And yes, we know that high school, right handers, prep, right handers are risky demographic.

23:09.100 --> 23:10.281 [SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about it a ton of times.

23:10.661 --> 23:12.102 [SPEAKER_01]: But we'll also note with that.

23:13.297 --> 23:19.042 [SPEAKER_01]: And the industry over the last ten years has massively course corrected on that.

23:19.662 --> 23:33.014 [SPEAKER_01]: And so the point that we keep trying to make here is is that the only high school right handers who are even considered nowadays as top ten picks are the absolute creme de la creme.

23:33.094 --> 23:40.120 [SPEAKER_01]: If you want to say Tyler Colick was a bad pick as a top three pick, Tyler Colick does not go

23:40.905 --> 23:48.432 [SPEAKER_01]: in the first round in a modern, I would say in a draft nowadays because that's how far the industry's gone along from where it was.

23:48.452 --> 23:56.160 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like Colis would probably be treated like Colis would probably be treated a lot more like what Jack Bauer was treated like this year and he wasn't drafted.

23:58.094 --> 23:59.115 [SPEAKER_00]: So I do think you're right.

23:59.175 --> 24:00.775 [SPEAKER_00]: The pictures are going in that range.

24:00.895 --> 24:05.658 [SPEAKER_00]: I have to clear so many hurdles and thresholds and have to check so many boxes.

24:05.758 --> 24:11.181 [SPEAKER_00]: And then one player that I kind of want to pull out on the worst value tier is Tyler Bremner.

24:12.061 --> 24:15.743 [SPEAKER_00]: And I'll pull this out to maybe push back against what the board is saying here.

24:15.803 --> 24:17.124 [SPEAKER_00]: So we view this value as

24:18.205 --> 24:33.465 [SPEAKER_00]: one point seven million dollars and less value than expected that the be a board gave him a a five point nine eight million dollar valuation he signed for seven point six million dollar signing bonus going second overall to the angels I think this is maybe a good way to illustrate that

24:34.842 --> 24:38.384 [SPEAKER_00]: Like I would have liked Tyler Bremner, second overall to the angels.

24:38.564 --> 24:41.385 [SPEAKER_00]: I would have like Jamie Arnold, second overall to the angels.

24:41.666 --> 24:45.227 [SPEAKER_00]: They went ten picks apart, basically nine picks apart.

24:45.367 --> 24:56.213 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that their overall valuation, their overall talent is quite as large as sort of these assigned BA values, indicates it's very hard to separate these players.

24:56.273 --> 25:03.177 [SPEAKER_00]: And so I'll just like point to him as a guy who, if you just purely look at the numbers, the BA board says it's not a great pick, but just knowing how

25:03.957 --> 25:07.160 [SPEAKER_00]: the BA board gets put together and the actual separation of these players.

25:07.200 --> 25:17.508 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a pick that I still, I quite like and I know the angels come out of this as like a team that isn't spending very efficiently based on this and a lot of that has to do with the brother pick.

25:17.848 --> 25:20.711 [SPEAKER_00]: But I actually quite like how the angels navigated this draft.

25:20.751 --> 25:22.172 [SPEAKER_00]: They spread a lot of their money around.

25:22.572 --> 25:25.515 [SPEAKER_00]: They got a lot of upside pictures in the class.

25:25.535 --> 25:28.277 [SPEAKER_00]: Like maybe there are some pictures or some hitters out of preferred.

25:29.658 --> 25:35.861 [SPEAKER_00]: They took in this class, like I do think the angels still tend to take these very relieverish college arms earlier than I personally would.

25:36.582 --> 25:44.346 [SPEAKER_00]: But I quite like a lot of the arms they got in this class and I do think that anyone really skeptical of the Tyler Bremner pig.

25:44.406 --> 25:49.889 [SPEAKER_00]: I would just push back and say I think he is an equivalent talent to any of the other college pictures who were

25:50.670 --> 25:56.774 [SPEAKER_00]: in that range, despite what you might look at our board and look at the rankings and say, hey, there's a six spot gap in the rankings.

25:56.794 --> 26:05.421 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think that that numerical difference in the VA value difference there probably overstays the actual separation that I feel exist between those players.

26:06.341 --> 26:07.482 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot to chew on there.

26:07.502 --> 26:12.285 [SPEAKER_01]: We have the link here in the description if you want to read the full story over at baseballamerica.com.

26:12.646 --> 26:20.031 [SPEAKER_01]: But that is a look at some of the best and maybe some of the lesser values that we're done that we saw from the twenty twenty five MLB draft.

26:20.685 --> 26:22.903 [SPEAKER_01]: with Carlos Clavo and myself, JJ Cooper.