00:03.948 --> 00:12.674 [SPEAKER_07]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

00:13.315 --> 00:15.557 [SPEAKER_07]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

00:17.698 --> 00:26.402 [SPEAKER_07]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

00:27.242 --> 00:33.565 [SPEAKER_07]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor Justin Klein.

00:37.066 --> 00:41.568 [SPEAKER_02]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk.

00:41.588 --> 00:45.650 [SPEAKER_02]: This is our Friday, August eight, twenty twenty five edition.

00:46.669 --> 00:57.898 [SPEAKER_02]: excited for this hour with you to close out this week very interesting week in markets a lot to unpack as we close the week and head into the weekend but

00:59.268 --> 01:01.069 [SPEAKER_02]: This hour is dedicated to you.

01:01.729 --> 01:04.010 [SPEAKER_02]: It's to your questions, to your concerns.

01:04.410 --> 01:05.490 [SPEAKER_02]: But it was on your mind.

01:05.930 --> 01:09.371 [SPEAKER_02]: Don't hesitate to reach out with your question at eight, eight, nine, nine, nine.

01:09.391 --> 01:09.531 [SPEAKER_02]: Try it.

01:09.551 --> 01:12.652 [SPEAKER_02]: That's the main way that we help you become a better investor.

01:13.173 --> 01:19.935 [SPEAKER_02]: Bring you perspective and color and data so that you go into a decision with your eyes wide open.

01:19.995 --> 01:23.116 [SPEAKER_02]: What might be right for one person, maybe wrong for another.

01:24.145 --> 01:25.547 [SPEAKER_02]: So understand that as well.

01:25.567 --> 01:32.495 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's why try to give the pros and the cons of everything, because everything boils down to those factors.

01:32.915 --> 01:36.380 [SPEAKER_02]: And it's up to you to decide what is right for you.

01:37.541 --> 01:39.003 [SPEAKER_02]: That's what investing is about.

01:39.323 --> 01:42.046 [SPEAKER_02]: What's the right risk versus reward for you?

01:42.186 --> 01:43.027 [SPEAKER_02]: Time horizon.

01:44.188 --> 01:48.674 [SPEAKER_02]: need for capital, savings habits, investment habits, etc.

01:49.215 --> 01:54.121 [SPEAKER_02]: What strategy makes sense for you and your risk tolerance level, your personality.

01:55.743 --> 01:57.645 [SPEAKER_02]: And your experience level and your discipline.

01:58.166 --> 01:59.307 [SPEAKER_02]: All this goes into

02:01.534 --> 02:06.196 [SPEAKER_02]: how to invest correctly, successfully, over time, year after year.

02:06.216 --> 02:06.836 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay?

02:07.016 --> 02:08.757 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's what this hour is about.

02:09.557 --> 02:14.018 [SPEAKER_02]: And we'll talk about the Mark performance in just a bit and then run down the show topics.

02:14.539 --> 02:15.719 [SPEAKER_02]: But we will cover through the hour.

02:16.239 --> 02:19.180 [SPEAKER_02]: But first, as usual, we'll talk about this color question now.

02:19.841 --> 02:20.321 [SPEAKER_05]: Hi, guys.

02:20.541 --> 02:21.061 [SPEAKER_05]: I love the show.

02:21.081 --> 02:27.023 [SPEAKER_05]: I have a quick question about ticker, I, A, G, I'm gold, corp.

02:27.383 --> 02:28.364 [SPEAKER_05]: Let me know what you guys think.

02:28.424 --> 02:28.664 [SPEAKER_05]: Thanks.

02:31.621 --> 02:35.904 [SPEAKER_02]: All right, looking at I am gold, I age is the symbol.

02:36.965 --> 02:46.711 [SPEAKER_02]: And this is one of those names that throughout the years has been an under performer compared to the broad, the broad gold mining indices.

02:47.291 --> 02:50.733 [SPEAKER_02]: But as of late, it's been doing fairly well.

02:51.254 --> 02:53.375 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, gold miners in general have been fairly well.

02:53.915 --> 03:00.580 [SPEAKER_02]: But if you look over the basically since October of twenty twenty two, it's been out performing.

03:01.491 --> 03:03.572 [SPEAKER_02]: the broader gold mining index.

03:04.312 --> 03:04.732 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's good.

03:05.192 --> 03:06.993 [SPEAKER_02]: But part of that is it's riskier.

03:07.093 --> 03:15.517 [SPEAKER_02]: It's smaller, four billion dollar market cap, but earnings are expected to be at a dollar twenty eight next year, from last year, only fifty five cents.

03:17.517 --> 03:22.579 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, so over double in two years, revenue last quarter is at fifty one percent.

03:23.400 --> 03:28.622 [SPEAKER_02]: Profits struggle a little bit down nineteen percent, but overall this year earnings are supposed to be at fifty three percent.

03:30.749 --> 03:32.649 [SPEAKER_02]: So I like that, I like it's recent out performance.

03:33.750 --> 03:37.510 [SPEAKER_02]: And let me take a look at where its minds are.

03:37.530 --> 03:43.232 [SPEAKER_02]: So they have one in Canada, basically on Canada, it looks like.

03:43.252 --> 03:43.612 [SPEAKER_02]: I like that.

03:43.792 --> 03:48.353 [SPEAKER_02]: It's important when you're looking at gold miners, what jurisdiction they're in.

03:48.953 --> 03:55.494 [SPEAKER_02]: Are they in a Western country with more stable governments?

03:57.014 --> 03:59.955 [SPEAKER_02]: Or are they in West Africa, for example?

04:00.520 --> 04:03.107 [SPEAKER_02]: where there's a lot more political volatility.

04:04.210 --> 04:05.654 [SPEAKER_02]: Are the essential South America?

04:06.336 --> 04:08.743 [SPEAKER_02]: Once again, more political volatility.

04:10.361 --> 04:15.023 [SPEAKER_02]: So the fact that they are in Canada makes me feel a lot more comfortable.

04:15.524 --> 04:20.066 [SPEAKER_02]: And the fact that they've started to outperform the broader index also makes you feel more comfortable.

04:20.086 --> 04:24.148 [SPEAKER_02]: And this was make it dollar by the dollar twenty eight next year on a seven dollar and fifty cents stock.

04:24.608 --> 04:31.191 [SPEAKER_02]: And if I look at the trends in the chart still remains in an uptrend like like most gold miners.

04:32.012 --> 04:33.032 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, I like the most gold miners.

04:35.480 --> 04:36.720 [SPEAKER_02]: It's just their stepping higher.

04:36.780 --> 04:37.601 [SPEAKER_02]: So I like it.

04:37.861 --> 04:38.721 [SPEAKER_02]: I would continue.

04:38.741 --> 04:39.361 [SPEAKER_02]: I would buy.

04:39.381 --> 04:40.021 [SPEAKER_02]: I am gold.

04:40.101 --> 04:42.082 [SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, you know, we like the gold miners.

04:42.342 --> 04:43.602 [SPEAKER_02]: And this is a pretty good one.

04:43.642 --> 04:44.002 [SPEAKER_02]: Smaller.

04:44.242 --> 04:45.223 [SPEAKER_02]: So it is riskier.

04:45.683 --> 04:46.823 [SPEAKER_02]: But it's good.

04:48.684 --> 04:49.444 [SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for the call.

04:50.384 --> 04:53.225 [SPEAKER_02]: Now our main focus point is about social security.

04:53.665 --> 04:57.626 [SPEAKER_02]: Only thirty-six percent of Americans are confident about social security's future.

04:58.106 --> 04:59.927 [SPEAKER_02]: Now confident is kind of a general term.

05:00.427 --> 05:01.667 [SPEAKER_02]: Old digging the details.

05:01.707 --> 05:03.808 [SPEAKER_02]: This is from A and A are P survey.

05:05.347 --> 05:09.251 [SPEAKER_02]: And we'll talk about the recent report of the Social Security Trust Fund.

05:09.791 --> 05:13.814 [SPEAKER_02]: And when it may run out, but what that means exactly running out.

05:13.834 --> 05:15.396 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, so we'll talk about that.

05:16.136 --> 05:18.579 [SPEAKER_02]: Also, forecast.

05:20.360 --> 05:23.483 [SPEAKER_02]: We're a little bit past the half point in the year.

05:24.924 --> 05:27.646 [SPEAKER_02]: And it's been up and down year pretty volatile.

05:29.668 --> 05:31.650 [SPEAKER_02]: And everybody likes to get a forecast.

05:32.472 --> 05:32.652 [SPEAKER_02]: Right?

05:32.912 --> 05:35.833 [SPEAKER_02]: A lot of people listen to the show because they're looking for a forecast.

05:36.573 --> 05:48.916 [SPEAKER_02]: But what I want to talk about more is the nature of forecasting from professionals like me and others on Wall Street and how accurate they are, how to digest those.

05:49.337 --> 05:49.517 [SPEAKER_02]: Right?

05:49.657 --> 05:53.758 [SPEAKER_02]: Because you know, and we say it all the time, you never want to take it as gospel.

05:54.318 --> 05:54.538 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay.

05:55.873 --> 06:02.438 [SPEAKER_02]: Anybody, everyone's wrong to some degree, it could be a lot, it could be a little, but we'll dig into that a little bit more and have to think about forecasts.

06:02.998 --> 06:16.867 [SPEAKER_02]: And then lastly, the manufacturing sector, we have the, today's the first day where these new or simple tariffs are taking hold and we'll gonna update on what the manufacturing industry is doing currently.

06:17.668 --> 06:24.653 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, how healthy it is, shall we say, in the first, what six, seven months of the Trump administration to put it.

06:25.493 --> 06:35.443 [SPEAKER_02]: We also have voice bank calls sitting on cash, as well as VTV, Vanguard value, and then give some questions that came in via the comment section on the invest talk YouTube channels.

06:35.503 --> 06:39.407 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, and of course, most importantly, we'll be your live calls.

06:39.487 --> 06:42.149 [SPEAKER_02]: So I welcome your finance and investment questions right now.

06:42.750 --> 06:45.793 [SPEAKER_02]: Eight and eight ninety nine chart is always the number we're going to have to a quick break.

06:45.893 --> 06:47.054 [SPEAKER_02]: Please remember you can call right now.

06:47.973 --> 06:50.755 [SPEAKER_02]: and leave your question on the Best Talk Voice Bank or Talk to Me Live.

06:51.356 --> 07:00.744 [SPEAKER_02]: If you're listening via the live stream or on AM-twelf-twenty in the Bay Area, you can call right now at eight and eight and a minute and chart an up next that will comment on today's market activity.

07:07.105 --> 07:12.047 [SPEAKER_03]: Sirious investors are certain to have finance and investment questions.

07:12.267 --> 07:16.129 [SPEAKER_03]: Wanted to get your take on WW Granger.

07:16.349 --> 07:20.690 [SPEAKER_03]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

07:20.990 --> 07:26.172 [SPEAKER_02]: I was wondering from your standpoint that they're at Gownside in buying fractional shares versus whole shares.

07:26.472 --> 07:35.356 [SPEAKER_03]: And twenty four seven rain or shine, Justin Klein and Luke Rero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

07:35.716 --> 07:39.017 [SPEAKER_02]: The issue, though, is really over the last decade or so.

07:39.377 --> 07:43.078 [SPEAKER_02]: It's never maintained this level of profitability for a long period of time.

07:43.138 --> 07:47.018 [SPEAKER_05]: Modernies are incredibly volatile, so when the going is good, take some profit.

07:47.198 --> 07:50.099 [SPEAKER_03]: Your participation makes an invest talk better.

07:50.359 --> 07:50.939 [SPEAKER_03]: My name is Mike.

07:50.979 --> 07:52.839 [SPEAKER_03]: I'm calling in from Orange County, California.

07:52.899 --> 07:55.120 [SPEAKER_03]: This is Lewis calling from Bolivia.

07:55.240 --> 07:57.100 [SPEAKER_03]: Let's go talk to Chris and me.

07:57.320 --> 08:00.061 [SPEAKER_03]: So don't forget to call, invest talk.

08:00.301 --> 08:01.441 [SPEAKER_03]: First off, great show.

08:01.621 --> 08:02.621 [SPEAKER_03]: I went with you, too.

08:02.962 --> 08:05.102 [SPEAKER_03]: Hey, day eight, ninety nine chart.

08:11.002 --> 08:15.006 [SPEAKER_03]: The calls are free, the unbiased answers are free.

08:15.567 --> 08:17.669 [SPEAKER_03]: So what are you waiting for?

08:18.189 --> 08:21.753 [SPEAKER_03]: Call in Vestock, eight, eight, nine, nine, chart.

08:24.636 --> 08:27.459 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's go take a quick look at the markets today.

08:27.940 --> 08:31.583 [SPEAKER_02]: Overall, we had another positive day to close out the week.

08:32.425 --> 08:36.787 [SPEAKER_02]: And as that goes up nearly one percent S&P up about three quarters of one percent.

08:37.407 --> 08:48.971 [SPEAKER_02]: When you look at the sectors technology did the best stuff about one percent financials and healthcare not far behind real estate was the worst performance as well as utilities.

08:49.451 --> 08:53.893 [SPEAKER_02]: I really I was on the back of rates rising just a bit.

08:54.613 --> 08:57.214 [SPEAKER_02]: So that was really across the curve three to five basis points.

08:58.114 --> 08:59.135 [SPEAKER_02]: And so yeah.

08:59.987 --> 09:26.855 [SPEAKER_02]: bond proxies number real real estate reats utility companies they tend to be bond proxies so if bonds are going down they also are pressured as well so that's uh... on the bond side and the sector side the dollar index was down about point one percent and on the long-lived their gold was at one point one percent even the on the back of uh... the white house gold tariff update looks like they're it's here called imports of that certainly

09:27.415 --> 09:36.079 [SPEAKER_02]: But a tailwind to go prices, Bitcoin features that were down, one point one percent, and WTI was little changed.

09:36.799 --> 09:41.541 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, we are, we, the buy the dip narrative still is intact.

09:41.721 --> 09:43.542 [SPEAKER_02]: The uptrend is still intact.

09:43.942 --> 09:53.986 [SPEAKER_02]: I said for a while now that I said, starting about two weeks ago, three weeks ago, I said August September, probably a period where you get a bit more volatility, seasonally,

09:54.446 --> 10:20.029 [SPEAKER_02]: market's overbought sentiment was extremely saw that with a lot of the meme stocks really taking off and that usually marks kind of at least a near term sentiment extreme so but the recent sell off certainly has been bought up pretty consistently throughout this week over still not above the highs from last week so it was just really a bounce back week overall nothing

10:20.967 --> 10:29.309 [SPEAKER_02]: I would say super-negative or super-positive, it still remains at least short-term, kind of neutral, obviously medium-term, or still bullish, or still an up-trend.

10:29.829 --> 10:41.631 [SPEAKER_02]: But I think the prospect of a modest pullback in markets where at least a consolidation is not out of the woods, right?

10:42.892 --> 10:49.493 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, I've said this before, liquidity remains generally a tailwind to markets and asset prices.

10:50.761 --> 10:59.764 [SPEAKER_02]: And part of the, as the dollar weakness, part of it is we're going to go into an easing cycle from the Fed and other central banks are easing as well.

11:00.564 --> 11:02.345 [SPEAKER_02]: So all of that money is fungible.

11:02.445 --> 11:12.908 [SPEAKER_02]: So if money is created around the world, that can be transitioned into another currency and ultimately that is helping asset prices more generally.

11:13.428 --> 11:14.529 [SPEAKER_02]: I continue to think that

11:15.678 --> 11:26.620 [SPEAKER_02]: Twenty- twenty-seven, it's like twenty-six, is probably the more worrying time and work it's, but right now I think you want to be generally bullish probably through year end.

11:29.041 --> 11:32.121 [SPEAKER_02]: Remember, today we received questions from the comment section of the invest talk.

11:32.161 --> 11:33.462 [SPEAKER_02]: YouTube channel, here's one that came in.

11:33.542 --> 11:37.763 [SPEAKER_02]: Earlier, Oliver Flanagan says, hi guys, listen from the UK here.

11:38.103 --> 11:38.723 [SPEAKER_02]: Love the show.

11:39.183 --> 11:41.223 [SPEAKER_02]: Is there any chance you could review a stock name?

11:41.683 --> 11:44.484 [SPEAKER_02]: Occlo, okay, L-O, in the SMR space.

11:45.375 --> 11:51.658 [SPEAKER_02]: This is interesting, because I've done some more thinking about the small modular reactors.

11:55.039 --> 11:59.461 [SPEAKER_02]: Small modular reactors in theory are fantastic idea.

12:01.402 --> 12:13.348 [SPEAKER_02]: You create a design for a nuclear, vision power plant that can be assembled in a factory and then ships to whoever it is needed.

12:14.522 --> 12:26.646 [SPEAKER_02]: And the whole idea right now is for these to be mainly used to power AI data centers, which there's a lot of investment there, a lot of money going into it.

12:27.766 --> 12:37.369 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think over the five, ten year time horizon, there probably will be a company that executes on this.

12:37.469 --> 12:41.550 [SPEAKER_02]: And there's enough money behind it, and they actually put some of these in place.

12:43.372 --> 12:44.432 [SPEAKER_02]: But it's all conceptual.

12:45.413 --> 12:46.933 [SPEAKER_02]: It's all conceptual.

12:50.154 --> 12:51.775 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's my problem with it.

12:52.855 --> 13:01.798 [SPEAKER_02]: Is that, hey, you don't know what technology is going to win out, which one will have that be the most cost effective, the safest.

13:02.079 --> 13:10.101 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's another issue with it is, you know, think of a giant nuclear plant that needs some sort of environmental regulation around it, right?

13:10.121 --> 13:11.642 [SPEAKER_02]: Because you don't want meltdowns, obviously.

13:14.330 --> 13:18.393 [SPEAKER_02]: How does that translate to where these small modular actors are going to be deployed?

13:20.375 --> 13:23.798 [SPEAKER_02]: Without a lot of safety history or no safety history, right?

13:24.418 --> 13:34.306 [SPEAKER_02]: At least large nuclear plants, you can see the design that maybe had been placed for a number of years in the history and the safety history.

13:36.008 --> 13:48.316 [SPEAKER_02]: which has, if you actually look at the nuclear industry, it's very safe, you know, outside of, you know, Chernobyl, pretty much everything else, Fukushima as well, but Fukushima was, you know, more minor than I think you'll realize.

13:49.857 --> 14:02.306 [SPEAKER_02]: But the bottom line here is that I still think nuclear renaissance is here, but I think the small modular reactor area is a bit overhiked.

14:03.683 --> 14:06.426 [SPEAKER_02]: Some of because it's still conceptual.

14:09.269 --> 14:20.581 [SPEAKER_02]: And until there is a real, a real one-foot in place to power any idea to center or whatever, I'm not going to get too excited about it.

14:20.601 --> 14:24.424 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's all speculation and the chart is good in the aqua, but

14:25.542 --> 14:27.584 [SPEAKER_02]: It's just spending a story, losing money.

14:28.565 --> 14:33.710 [SPEAKER_02]: And when you go through the next down cycle and liquidity, which probably starts next year at some point.

14:34.705 --> 14:36.006 [SPEAKER_02]: This will probably go with it.

14:36.346 --> 14:37.887 [SPEAKER_02]: So, I wouldn't be buying it.

14:38.007 --> 14:39.027 [SPEAKER_02]: It's already made a run.

14:39.107 --> 14:39.708 [SPEAKER_02]: You missed it.

14:40.128 --> 14:41.108 [SPEAKER_02]: Could it continue to go?

14:41.568 --> 14:41.869 [SPEAKER_02]: Sure.

14:41.889 --> 14:47.691 [SPEAKER_02]: Because I think there's more room to run generally until liquidity inflects.

14:47.772 --> 14:50.633 [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, that doesn't mean this has to continue to go up.

14:50.693 --> 14:56.376 [SPEAKER_02]: So, I just think it's porvious, risk versus reward over the medium, and definitely long term.

14:58.157 --> 14:58.757 [SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for the cost.

14:58.777 --> 15:00.258 [SPEAKER_02]: Especially Oculus, ten billion dollars.

15:00.798 --> 15:01.438 [SPEAKER_02]: Mark, you got already.

15:01.799 --> 15:02.699 [SPEAKER_02]: It's already kind of expensive.

15:04.304 --> 15:12.950 [SPEAKER_02]: Now let's briefly mention the newest KTP premium newsletter, which would be tribute to Mario and the KTP Insight section we discussed owning metals versus owning miners.

15:13.731 --> 15:27.201 [SPEAKER_02]: In the stock section we mention a security solutions manufacturer and an industrial manufacturing person solution provider and the portfolio management section we touch on the setting which metrics to use when sorting through stock to put on a watch list.

15:28.311 --> 15:35.156 [SPEAKER_02]: And if you're interested in learning more, visit us at vestalk.com to subscribe, the newsletter will come to your inbox to Maro.

15:35.696 --> 15:39.019 [SPEAKER_02]: We are moving to a break still to count my folks' point and more answers to your questions.

15:39.519 --> 15:41.881 [SPEAKER_02]: So I encourage you to call right now at eight and ninety nine chart.

15:53.787 --> 15:56.549 [SPEAKER_03]: Have you heard about the new Invest Talk Store?

15:57.129 --> 16:00.812 [SPEAKER_03]: That's right, you'll find great merch for the savvy investor.

16:01.292 --> 16:05.815 [SPEAKER_03]: It's all there for you now at InvestTalkStore.com.

16:06.295 --> 16:12.299 [SPEAKER_03]: And now Justin Klein is here and taking your finance and investment questions live.

16:12.739 --> 16:13.780 [SPEAKER_03]: Call Invest Talk.

16:19.273 --> 16:27.780 [SPEAKER_02]: Now our main focus point on today's show is about how only thirty six percent of Americans are confident in Social Security's future.

16:28.660 --> 16:31.823 [SPEAKER_02]: And this is a report from ARP.

16:33.844 --> 16:45.093 [SPEAKER_02]: And the issue here is that Sony who are now going to rely on Social Security in a big way for their retirement because a lot of people have not saved enough.

16:46.128 --> 16:48.150 [SPEAKER_02]: So, number one is, don't be that person.

16:48.650 --> 16:51.232 [SPEAKER_02]: Make sure you have a plan and stick to it, be consistent.

16:51.813 --> 16:54.335 [SPEAKER_02]: Savings habits are far more important than your investment habits.

16:54.836 --> 16:55.416 [SPEAKER_02]: Say it all the time.

16:56.357 --> 16:58.759 [SPEAKER_02]: Most people think that investments are gonna get their rich.

16:58.819 --> 16:59.339 [SPEAKER_02]: Get them rich.

17:00.260 --> 17:00.440 [SPEAKER_02]: No.

17:01.561 --> 17:05.785 [SPEAKER_02]: Over time, combined with consistent savings habits, yes.

17:07.146 --> 17:09.989 [SPEAKER_02]: But on their own, you're not going to strike a rich.

17:12.892 --> 17:14.413 [SPEAKER_02]: just on the investment site.

17:14.433 --> 17:23.957 [SPEAKER_02]: You're not gonna turn ten thousand dollars into enough to sustain you for the rest of your life in retirement.

17:26.038 --> 17:31.300 [SPEAKER_02]: This is about consistently saving as well as more investing.

17:31.980 --> 17:34.221 [SPEAKER_02]: But that first part is job number one.

17:35.321 --> 17:36.602 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, so remember that.

17:37.162 --> 17:38.683 [SPEAKER_02]: Don't rely on Social Security.

17:40.122 --> 17:48.505 [SPEAKER_02]: because the programs trustees recently released a report on their finances and it wasn't exactly encouraging.

17:49.946 --> 17:52.427 [SPEAKER_02]: So here are the numbers.

17:52.687 --> 17:57.228 [SPEAKER_02]: Basically, there's enough money until twenty where are we?

17:58.789 --> 17:59.229 [SPEAKER_02]: I had it here.

18:00.630 --> 18:01.250 [SPEAKER_02]: Twenty thirty four.

18:01.270 --> 18:02.150 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay.

18:03.591 --> 18:06.932 [SPEAKER_02]: That's all the money in the combined social security trust funds.

18:08.030 --> 18:09.671 [SPEAKER_02]: expected to run out in twenty thirty four.

18:09.711 --> 18:12.032 [SPEAKER_02]: Now that's less than a decade away, right?

18:13.693 --> 18:16.294 [SPEAKER_02]: But at that time, it's not like a social security goes away.

18:18.635 --> 18:21.037 [SPEAKER_02]: eighty-one percent of the benefits will still be paid out.

18:21.797 --> 18:26.019 [SPEAKER_02]: After the trust fund is exhausted.

18:29.261 --> 18:31.042 [SPEAKER_02]: That's still eighty-one percent.

18:31.242 --> 18:31.642 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a lot.

18:32.182 --> 18:33.983 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's what is projected.

18:34.424 --> 18:36.405 [SPEAKER_02]: None of this is set in stone, okay?

18:37.368 --> 18:42.849 [SPEAKER_02]: Obviously law makers, they could pass changes to Social Security.

18:42.869 --> 18:43.869 [SPEAKER_02]: They can means test it.

18:44.449 --> 18:46.830 [SPEAKER_02]: They can move the Social Security retirement age.

18:50.850 --> 18:53.251 [SPEAKER_02]: They can take tax dollars.

18:54.171 --> 18:59.752 [SPEAKER_02]: They can up the amounts that is paid in a Social Security from each worker.

19:00.512 --> 19:02.252 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's probably what will happen.

19:03.253 --> 19:04.913 [SPEAKER_02]: Because today there's a cat.

19:06.388 --> 19:09.729 [SPEAKER_02]: After a certain dollar amount, if you get the exact number, it's hundred thirty something thousand.

19:10.169 --> 19:12.730 [SPEAKER_02]: In earnings, you no longer pay in a social security.

19:14.451 --> 19:15.211 [SPEAKER_02]: Into that trust fund.

19:17.231 --> 19:24.414 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, that's what after the trust fund is exhausted, that's what we'll pay for benefits.

19:26.674 --> 19:34.997 [SPEAKER_02]: So they could easily just raise that cap and they'll get more money pushed in a social security now to cost you an eye.

19:36.579 --> 19:38.200 [SPEAKER_02]: But that's an easy fix as well.

19:39.802 --> 19:40.502 [SPEAKER_02]: I was easy fix.

19:40.562 --> 19:41.103 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a fix.

19:41.343 --> 19:44.245 [SPEAKER_02]: It would be politically tenable who knows.

19:47.668 --> 19:59.197 [SPEAKER_02]: So it's important to understand that that from that there's a political aspect to this not just raw numbers because this is a government sponsored program.

20:03.348 --> 20:06.751 [SPEAKER_02]: And neither side of the aisle wants the change, it wants to cut it.

20:07.412 --> 20:11.716 [SPEAKER_02]: I think eventually there will be changes, but those changes are very unknown.

20:14.799 --> 20:17.882 [SPEAKER_02]: And also the later force, what happens with the labor force over the next decade?

20:18.262 --> 20:19.483 [SPEAKER_02]: Does it grow?

20:19.503 --> 20:20.064 [SPEAKER_02]: Does it shrink?

20:20.905 --> 20:21.986 [SPEAKER_02]: That'll be a big factor as well.

20:24.838 --> 20:33.782 [SPEAKER_02]: So it's too soon to know what is exactly in Surface Social Security, but what you should do is improve your financial outlook, like I said, your savings habits.

20:37.464 --> 20:43.307 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a great, there's a great saying, my fiance, she's a doctor.

20:44.187 --> 20:47.309 [SPEAKER_02]: And this is what doctors say in the operating room.

20:47.829 --> 20:50.030 [SPEAKER_02]: When things go wrong, things can go wrong in operating room.

20:50.870 --> 20:53.992 [SPEAKER_02]: And you can dwell on it, or you can move on.

20:55.020 --> 20:56.822 [SPEAKER_02]: And she says, so what now it?

20:57.822 --> 20:57.983 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay.

20:58.263 --> 21:00.605 [SPEAKER_02]: So same thing here, same thing with anything, financial.

21:00.905 --> 21:02.346 [SPEAKER_02]: So what, now what, what do you do?

21:02.366 --> 21:04.068 [SPEAKER_02]: Do you sit in a dwell of a Social Security?

21:04.148 --> 21:06.229 [SPEAKER_02]: No, you make changes.

21:06.410 --> 21:09.772 [SPEAKER_02]: You account for, you know, your benefits might be cut, twenty percent.

21:12.575 --> 21:14.576 [SPEAKER_02]: And you have to consider that one planning.

21:15.297 --> 21:17.739 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's go take a live call, Richard from the Bay Area, looking at MPAA.

21:21.879 --> 21:22.639 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, hi, Justin.

21:22.659 --> 21:23.720 [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for taking my call.

21:23.780 --> 21:25.820 [SPEAKER_00]: And I just want to make sure it's Emma's in Mary.

21:26.340 --> 21:26.440 [SPEAKER_02]: OK.

21:26.460 --> 21:30.182 [SPEAKER_02]: Are you talking about motor cars, parts of America?

21:32.042 --> 21:33.022 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's the one.

21:35.843 --> 21:40.485 [SPEAKER_01]: I found it by a stock screener and the numbers looks good on.

21:40.585 --> 21:43.506 [SPEAKER_01]: And I want to identify out of a trip stock.

21:44.646 --> 21:45.026 [SPEAKER_02]: Interesting.

21:45.046 --> 21:46.166 [SPEAKER_02]: This is a small name.

21:46.566 --> 21:48.127 [SPEAKER_02]: Two hundred million dollar market gap.

21:49.554 --> 21:53.296 [SPEAKER_02]: with a free cash flow of about forty-one million dollars.

21:53.837 --> 21:55.718 [SPEAKER_02]: That is a very strong free cash flow.

21:55.738 --> 21:59.560 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, historically, their free cash flow has ed and flowed.

21:59.620 --> 22:00.541 [SPEAKER_02]: It's been up and down.

22:01.181 --> 22:04.783 [SPEAKER_02]: But earnings are just to go to an all-time high between forty-eight cents next year.

22:05.303 --> 22:11.067 [SPEAKER_02]: No dividend, minimal debt, actually a decent amount of debt.

22:11.547 --> 22:12.688 [SPEAKER_02]: So I worry a bit about that.

22:12.748 --> 22:15.970 [SPEAKER_02]: No, no, no dividend.

22:17.703 --> 22:18.664 [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, I do think it's cheap.

22:19.044 --> 22:20.424 [SPEAKER_02]: I didn't need a pan on their debt, though.

22:20.444 --> 22:21.665 [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, I like the chart.

22:21.685 --> 22:26.788 [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, but it's very high risk is so small, but I do think it is cheap.

22:27.368 --> 22:28.729 [SPEAKER_02]: And the chart is solid.

22:28.809 --> 22:34.211 [SPEAKER_02]: So I'd go for it, but make sure it's a small percentage of your portfolio.

22:35.692 --> 22:36.532 [SPEAKER_02]: Now we're heading to a break.

22:37.113 --> 22:39.474 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm ready to take your calls now and eight and eight ninety nine chart.

22:49.913 --> 22:58.002 [SPEAKER_03]: The weekend is here or almost here, but you've got finance and investment questions, so step up and call in.

22:58.522 --> 23:01.826 [SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk, eight, eight, nine, chart.

23:03.127 --> 23:05.810 [SPEAKER_04]: Hey, Dustin on Lucas is a Pete from Staten Island, New York.

23:06.090 --> 23:10.735 [SPEAKER_04]: Over the last few months I've seen my portfolio kind of go up like seventy five percent.

23:11.218 --> 23:22.264 [SPEAKER_04]: I'm sitting on a lot of profits right now and over the last few weeks I've been taking a lot of chips off the table and I just started looking and I realized that I'm sitting on like thirty percent cash in my portfolio.

23:22.744 --> 23:37.973 [SPEAKER_04]: I was wondering what you guys doing in a situation like this where the markets a little bit fraught the equities is soaring on the taking profits but are you guys directly investing them like right away or are you playing like the long game and just kind of waiting and being patient.

23:38.553 --> 23:45.195 [SPEAKER_04]: My gut is telling you to wait and be patient, but I also don't like sitting on that thirty percent cash because obviously could be growing as well.

23:45.255 --> 23:47.136 [SPEAKER_04]: So just more of like a portfolio question.

23:47.196 --> 23:49.217 [SPEAKER_04]: How do you guys rebound and it's time like this?

23:49.497 --> 23:52.378 [SPEAKER_04]: I appreciate it and I'll look forward to hearing your answer to the podcast.

23:53.698 --> 24:03.421 [SPEAKER_02]: This is a great question and very interesting one because cash in it of itself in the account isn't, isn't silo.

24:05.812 --> 24:11.275 [SPEAKER_02]: Also, you have to take the rest of the account in to consideration as well.

24:12.116 --> 24:14.757 [SPEAKER_02]: So, you said that you're up to seventy-five percent of the year.

24:14.977 --> 24:23.142 [SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, you only get that type of performance if you're investing in aggressive positions, speculative positions.

24:24.022 --> 24:31.687 [SPEAKER_02]: So, you might have thirty percent cash, but that seventy percent might be in very aggressive, speculative stocks.

24:32.631 --> 24:42.798 [SPEAKER_02]: Right, small modules, the reactors and chip names and AI names and names that, as we saw in twenty twenty two, can go down a lot.

24:44.619 --> 24:48.502 [SPEAKER_02]: So you're overall portfolio still might be risky even with thirty percent cash.

24:49.483 --> 24:49.763 [SPEAKER_02]: Right.

24:49.783 --> 24:53.285 [SPEAKER_02]: So a lot does depend on what the rest of the portfolio is doing.

24:55.067 --> 24:56.087 [SPEAKER_02]: Now you're right.

24:56.447 --> 24:58.429 [SPEAKER_02]: There's some frothiness in the market.

24:59.783 --> 25:02.586 [SPEAKER_02]: But that doesn't mean you can't continue to go up.

25:03.647 --> 25:06.930 [SPEAKER_02]: It might be a little harder because we're over bot, right?

25:06.950 --> 25:10.193 [SPEAKER_02]: There's not a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines.

25:11.754 --> 25:15.698 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of leverage with margin loans, et cetera.

25:16.799 --> 25:21.403 [SPEAKER_02]: And there's a lot of speculation within the options market, a lot of call option activity.

25:24.413 --> 25:27.276 [SPEAKER_02]: That's the market that we are in right now.

25:28.297 --> 25:30.559 [SPEAKER_02]: And is it good risk versus reward?

25:32.120 --> 25:34.963 [SPEAKER_02]: Over the medium term, probably not.

25:37.073 --> 25:38.794 [SPEAKER_02]: But yes, you could be missing out.

25:38.834 --> 25:51.104 [SPEAKER_02]: But if you put that money to work in companies that overbought, that are overpriced, and then suddenly liquidity and flex, are you going to be getting out in time?

25:51.845 --> 26:03.615 [SPEAKER_02]: So I would be looking to take that cash and find other opportunities in the market, broaden out your portfolio beyond just highly speculative names.

26:04.816 --> 26:07.073 [SPEAKER_02]: Because there are other opportunities out there like that, right?

26:08.208 --> 26:15.313 [SPEAKER_02]: Whether that's precious metals, you don't have to look at the rest of the portfolio and say, okay, you can use this cash elsewhere.

26:15.353 --> 26:16.553 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's utility companies.

26:17.054 --> 26:18.234 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's industrial names.

26:18.715 --> 26:20.076 [SPEAKER_02]: Where are you underweight?

26:21.036 --> 26:24.018 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's where I'd be going to look for opportunities.

26:24.799 --> 26:29.121 [SPEAKER_02]: So it's hard to be blank and say, use the cash, don't use the cash.

26:29.542 --> 26:36.386 [SPEAKER_02]: A lot of depends on what type of risk you're taking, what opportunities, maybe you're not exposed to in your portfolio.

26:38.830 --> 26:41.611 [SPEAKER_02]: there still could still be places to deploy that capital.

26:41.932 --> 26:48.614 [SPEAKER_02]: Because there are always good opportunities in the marketplace, sometimes they're very abundant, and other times not so much.

26:49.075 --> 26:56.938 [SPEAKER_02]: So hopefully I gave you some context to what you think about whether you should deploy the cash and where you should do it.

26:58.879 --> 27:00.099 [SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for the question.

27:00.180 --> 27:00.700 [SPEAKER_02]: Hold that question.

27:01.590 --> 27:06.392 [SPEAKER_02]: Now in Friday's, we generally like to make some time to fit in a quick rundown of some key benchmark numbers.

27:06.932 --> 27:14.075 [SPEAKER_02]: So let me hit on that right now, the two year yield, three point seven, six percent last week, three point seven, one percent.

27:14.135 --> 27:17.537 [SPEAKER_02]: So a bit of an increase in the two year yields.

27:18.838 --> 27:24.021 [SPEAKER_02]: After, we had that big drop in yields on the short end after the job's number on Friday.

27:24.581 --> 27:31.645 [SPEAKER_02]: And so we've kind of clawed that back, even though we had a relatively poor services PMI index on Tuesday.

27:32.565 --> 27:39.729 [SPEAKER_02]: The positive equity markets really was taken to pick the wind out of the sales in the bond market.

27:40.169 --> 27:43.671 [SPEAKER_02]: The ten year yield, two points, sorry, four point two, eight, seven percent.

27:44.570 --> 27:49.912 [SPEAKER_02]: And that is up from last week's power, four point two to six percent.

27:49.933 --> 27:52.874 [SPEAKER_02]: So about five basis points, five point five basis points there.

27:53.674 --> 27:55.735 [SPEAKER_02]: And then let's see what else.

27:56.976 --> 28:03.659 [SPEAKER_02]: Gold was at thirty three, ninety four and ounce up forty six dollars from the previous week.

28:03.679 --> 28:05.600 [SPEAKER_02]: So nice one percent or so gain.

28:06.472 --> 28:14.198 [SPEAKER_02]: On the gold price silver, thirty eight dollars in thirty three cents per ounce up a dollar forty five compared to last week.

28:14.519 --> 28:16.380 [SPEAKER_02]: So nice little move on silver as well.

28:17.201 --> 28:27.029 [SPEAKER_02]: Oil selling at thirty six seventy three down three dollars in seventy three cents per barrel on what seems to be more supply coming out of OPEC.

28:27.749 --> 28:33.111 [SPEAKER_02]: National average for gasoline, three dollars and fifteen cents flat from last week.

28:33.511 --> 28:45.594 [SPEAKER_02]: Here in California though, prices did tick up one cent to four dollars and forty nine cents per comparison in Illinois, gas is averaging only three dollars and forty cents per gallon.

28:46.494 --> 28:52.336 [SPEAKER_02]: That was a quick rundown of some major market numbers as we close the week.

28:53.916 --> 28:55.997 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk a little bit about forecasts.

28:58.072 --> 29:03.475 [SPEAKER_02]: In every January, you have analysts and experts trying to handicap.

29:03.495 --> 29:10.300 [SPEAKER_02]: What will happen to markets, S&P, tenure treasury, commodity prices, et cetera.

29:10.540 --> 29:11.721 [SPEAKER_02]: And we do it the same, right?

29:13.001 --> 29:17.104 [SPEAKER_02]: And forecasting is, as all this time, this record is in ancient Mesopotamia.

29:18.825 --> 29:21.927 [SPEAKER_02]: That talks about predicting commodity prices, for example.

29:24.068 --> 29:26.390 [SPEAKER_02]: And Pundits continue to push out forecasts.

29:28.240 --> 29:38.869 [SPEAKER_02]: using things like the Hindu Berg oven or death cross and things that sound ominous and often they're very wrong.

29:41.391 --> 29:43.112 [SPEAKER_02]: But the question is why are they wrong?

29:44.233 --> 29:50.518 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, studies show that most analysts are either too conservative or too extreme.

29:53.721 --> 29:56.043 [SPEAKER_02]: The conservative ones are there because they're

29:56.965 --> 30:00.706 [SPEAKER_02]: They don't want to get fired, they don't want to miss the pack too dramatically.

30:05.267 --> 30:07.648 [SPEAKER_02]: So they don't really deviate from the average very much.

30:09.028 --> 30:12.569 [SPEAKER_02]: But if you do, you might as well go big, right?

30:13.429 --> 30:24.152 [SPEAKER_02]: And if you turn out to be right, you could be flagged as somebody that called the crash, right, or called the turn in the market when things are going bad.

30:25.487 --> 30:25.707 [SPEAKER_02]: Right?

30:26.707 --> 30:30.168 [SPEAKER_02]: And if you're wrong, most people forget about it.

30:31.028 --> 30:40.770 [SPEAKER_02]: And then the area of social media, frankly, it's those that are making the grandiose predictions that get the most pop.

30:41.230 --> 30:50.972 [SPEAKER_02]: So it's even more incentive to break from the average and call for major changes.

30:52.713 --> 30:53.753 [SPEAKER_02]: When the reality is,

30:55.221 --> 30:59.944 [SPEAKER_02]: Especially over the short term, status quo is the name of the game.

31:01.585 --> 31:05.528 [SPEAKER_02]: Now you go back to the financial crisis, and you have the economists like New Orleans, Rubini.

31:06.768 --> 31:09.830 [SPEAKER_02]: He tends to be kind of gloomy and he call the financial crisis.

31:10.811 --> 31:14.954 [SPEAKER_02]: But he's also been gloomy since then, and obviously as it's ever covered.

31:19.376 --> 31:19.817 [SPEAKER_02]: Why is that?

31:19.937 --> 31:24.900 [SPEAKER_02]: Why are war analysts wrong?

31:26.825 --> 31:37.333 [SPEAKER_02]: Put simply, they infuse bias into their predictions, they have models, but those times they don't listen to those models.

31:39.455 --> 31:42.417 [SPEAKER_02]: So they defeat themselves by getting to keep.

31:47.341 --> 31:51.745 [SPEAKER_02]: And they're not, they're human at the end of the day.

31:52.225 --> 31:54.087 [SPEAKER_02]: And just like the average person, they're prone to,

31:55.930 --> 31:57.590 [SPEAKER_02]: extrapolate the recent trends.

31:58.531 --> 32:09.673 [SPEAKER_02]: So if a certain asset class, certain stock is doing well, they think it will continue to color their opinion of that asset class.

32:12.593 --> 32:18.755 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if they don't really agree with why it moved, it will change.

32:18.795 --> 32:20.635 [SPEAKER_02]: It will move their position.

32:22.235 --> 32:30.098 [SPEAKER_02]: If they're bearish on a stock and they're an industry and that stock industry is doing well, well, they might temper their bearishness.

32:32.499 --> 32:44.725 [SPEAKER_02]: But the reality is more often than not, that they're actually correct, but they're letting the markets push their position around.

32:45.885 --> 32:47.806 [SPEAKER_02]: I look at Oculus, for example, the caller earlier.

32:53.163 --> 33:00.105 [SPEAKER_02]: I truly believe that nuclear is in a Renaissance, but it doesn't blanket the whole industry.

33:00.225 --> 33:17.549 [SPEAKER_02]: And while Oculus is going up right now, it's not going to change my view that until I see some concrete on the ground working that it's just the spectrum of the name, and I'll probably roll over when the liquidity cycle inflex.

33:20.630 --> 33:21.050 [SPEAKER_02]: That's my view.

33:23.380 --> 33:28.484 [SPEAKER_02]: And it can be hard if they have a person to see the stock go up and keep that view.

33:34.349 --> 33:36.651 [SPEAKER_02]: So a lot of these people are website, right?

33:36.671 --> 33:41.174 [SPEAKER_02]: These analysts are website around and they're a prisoner of the moment.

33:42.956 --> 33:43.436 [SPEAKER_02]: The bottom line.

33:45.598 --> 33:47.519 [SPEAKER_02]: Now how accurate are four casters?

33:47.659 --> 33:51.983 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, studies show that in the shorter term, it's actually pretty good.

33:53.857 --> 33:54.437 [SPEAKER_02]: Which makes sense.

33:56.278 --> 33:57.158 [SPEAKER_02]: The trend is your friend.

33:59.238 --> 34:04.640 [SPEAKER_02]: And there's no knowing exactly when that trend will change.

34:04.680 --> 34:05.620 [SPEAKER_02]: Right now, the trend is up.

34:06.320 --> 34:06.460 [SPEAKER_02]: Right?

34:06.480 --> 34:11.302 [SPEAKER_02]: So it's easy for me to say, well, stocks are going to go up over the next three, six months.

34:12.862 --> 34:15.263 [SPEAKER_02]: That tends to be how it works.

34:16.503 --> 34:18.483 [SPEAKER_02]: But over a year, you go a year out.

34:19.244 --> 34:20.744 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, anything can happen.

34:23.003 --> 34:33.706 [SPEAKER_02]: And the farther you go out into that next year, the odds of a trend change in the broader market or in the asset class of the company, the odds of that trend change go up.

34:39.407 --> 34:42.288 [SPEAKER_02]: So what you have to understand is that there's a lot of uncertainty in markets.

34:42.348 --> 34:43.468 [SPEAKER_02]: And you have to embrace that.

34:44.448 --> 34:45.608 [SPEAKER_02]: Don't think you're going to get it right.

34:47.069 --> 34:49.769 [SPEAKER_02]: Understand that look at multiple sources.

34:50.069 --> 34:51.290 [SPEAKER_02]: Instead of saying it all the time, right?

34:52.362 --> 34:55.584 [SPEAKER_02]: You don't want to look at what I say and think it's gospel.

34:56.345 --> 34:57.005 [SPEAKER_02]: It should not be.

34:57.505 --> 34:58.126 [SPEAKER_02]: I am wrong.

34:58.886 --> 35:01.988 [SPEAKER_02]: Just like everybody else in my industry is wrong for time to time.

35:03.129 --> 35:03.529 [SPEAKER_02]: Reggarily.

35:04.790 --> 35:14.136 [SPEAKER_02]: But if you take a lot of experts and you get a smattering of opinions and

35:15.787 --> 35:18.269 [SPEAKER_02]: One says the SP's gonna be up six percent.

35:18.349 --> 35:19.210 [SPEAKER_02]: The other is ten.

35:19.330 --> 35:20.511 [SPEAKER_02]: The other is fourteen.

35:21.191 --> 35:22.552 [SPEAKER_02]: And the other is twelve.

35:23.413 --> 35:26.835 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's a good that it's gonna be somewhere in there.

35:32.460 --> 35:34.681 [SPEAKER_02]: And then you can know kind of generally what to expect.

35:37.503 --> 35:38.544 [SPEAKER_02]: So how do you know about the future?

35:38.604 --> 35:42.267 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, you can't extrapolate long periods of the past.

35:46.632 --> 35:52.793 [SPEAKER_02]: You can know what an asset class is generally going to return based on past performance and current valuation.

35:54.654 --> 35:55.534 [SPEAKER_02]: For example, bonds.

35:55.914 --> 35:57.114 [SPEAKER_02]: How do you know what bonds are going to return?

35:57.254 --> 36:01.255 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, bonds generally turn with the current yield is on those bonds.

36:03.356 --> 36:07.536 [SPEAKER_02]: Are you by smattering of corporate bonds and average yield maturity of six percent?

36:08.717 --> 36:14.658 [SPEAKER_02]: You might get a few defaults, but if you're diversified enough, you're drowning in a six percent.

36:16.687 --> 36:17.448 [SPEAKER_02]: That's how pawns work.

36:19.209 --> 36:25.654 [SPEAKER_02]: Actors are a good bit different, but over long periods of time, those fundamentals play up.

36:27.355 --> 36:36.021 [SPEAKER_02]: So take these predictions with the grand assaults, but know that they do have value.

36:37.542 --> 36:38.383 [SPEAKER_02]: Just don't think they're gospel.

36:39.244 --> 36:40.064 [SPEAKER_02]: Now let's keep things moving.

36:40.124 --> 36:43.707 [SPEAKER_02]: Here comes another fresh listener question from eight to eight, ninety nine chart.

36:44.888 --> 36:46.489 [SPEAKER_06]: Hello, they're adjusted and Luke.

36:46.922 --> 36:50.603 [SPEAKER_06]: This is Matt from Minneapolis, long, long time, Mr. to the show.

36:50.663 --> 36:51.723 [SPEAKER_06]: Love what you guys do.

36:52.263 --> 36:53.203 [SPEAKER_06]: Thank you very much.

36:54.163 --> 36:55.524 [SPEAKER_06]: Hey, I have a quick question.

36:55.564 --> 36:56.944 [SPEAKER_06]: Hopefully, it could help me with please.

36:57.524 --> 37:03.805 [SPEAKER_06]: Looking to always diversify my portfolio, and growth seems to be doing great.

37:04.366 --> 37:08.206 [SPEAKER_06]: But yet I hear some people on TV, I guess.

37:08.466 --> 37:12.967 [SPEAKER_06]: Even now, from what I'm reading that value is still good to have in the portfolio right now.

37:12.987 --> 37:16.628 [SPEAKER_06]: And all you guys like value stocks and so forth,

37:17.291 --> 37:22.913 [SPEAKER_06]: What do you think of the fund VTV to add to one's portfolio right now?

37:23.514 --> 37:27.415 [SPEAKER_06]: Sometimes I don't have time to do a lot of searching and find individual ones.

37:27.455 --> 37:30.676 [SPEAKER_06]: So I'm considering maybe adding that to my portfolio.

37:31.057 --> 37:34.558 [SPEAKER_06]: But that'd be a positive thumbs up mover and down negative move.

37:35.038 --> 37:35.358 [SPEAKER_06]: Thanks.

37:35.438 --> 37:37.239 [SPEAKER_06]: I look forward to hearing your answer on the show.

37:37.259 --> 37:41.641 [SPEAKER_02]: I look at the Vanguard value ETF and you're correct.

37:41.661 --> 37:46.203 [SPEAKER_02]: We tend to lean towards the value side with our with our equity exposure for our clients.

37:47.410 --> 37:50.433 [SPEAKER_02]: We always have some growth names as well.

37:50.513 --> 37:57.580 [SPEAKER_02]: So you want to be, you want to not all lean on one side of the other, what we call the morning star style box.

37:58.761 --> 38:02.585 [SPEAKER_02]: But having over long term value does tend out for formal though, you're right.

38:02.825 --> 38:04.367 [SPEAKER_02]: So far this year growth has done better.

38:05.810 --> 38:10.431 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, VTV is the Vanguard value ETF large cat value fund.

38:10.451 --> 38:15.253 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a good fund, good performance compared to its peers.

38:15.813 --> 38:16.593 [SPEAKER_02]: So I understand that.

38:17.733 --> 38:25.315 [SPEAKER_02]: And it leans on things like financial services, twenty-five percent of the fund, industrials, thirteen technologies, only ten versus the S&P.

38:27.796 --> 38:42.690 [SPEAKER_02]: pushing into the mid-thirties, high-thirties, as a percentage of the S&P I'm trying to remember, it always changes, but that's the kind of exposure you're getting, it's a root offensive, the staples, technology, industrials, and financials.

38:43.150 --> 38:45.252 [SPEAKER_02]: Everything else, health care as well, fifteen percent.

38:45.752 --> 38:48.235 [SPEAKER_02]: Everything else is single digits in exposure.

38:49.321 --> 38:54.968 [SPEAKER_02]: This gets four to five stars on Morningstar, relatively low exposure, or sorry, low expense ratio.

38:55.889 --> 38:58.452 [SPEAKER_02]: The big question that was, what is the rest of your portfolio look like?

38:58.492 --> 38:59.553 [SPEAKER_02]: Are you getting overlap?

39:00.014 --> 39:00.254 [SPEAKER_02]: Right?

39:00.735 --> 39:07.823 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, the top holdings are names like JP Morgan, but you have the way Exxon, Walmart, Brockton, Gamble, Oracle, etc.

39:09.185 --> 39:11.426 [SPEAKER_02]: How many of those names do you have in your portfolio?

39:11.466 --> 39:12.407 [SPEAKER_02]: What's the overlap?

39:12.467 --> 39:20.771 [SPEAKER_02]: So, it's a good fund, but understand what type of exposure you currently have and it's just making it more balanced or more concentrated.

39:20.911 --> 39:23.312 [SPEAKER_02]: And I would think about that in the situation as well.

39:24.873 --> 39:26.153 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, I'm moving into a break.

39:26.573 --> 39:29.275 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm ready to take your calls now, eight and a day, ninety nine chart.

39:37.364 --> 39:45.368 [SPEAKER_03]: Twenty-twenty-five rolls on and you've got finance and investment questions for Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

39:45.828 --> 39:49.670 [SPEAKER_03]: Call in Vestag, eight, eight, eight, nine, chart.

39:52.940 --> 40:02.187 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's go with another YouTube comment question and Matthias who says High Investor I'm currently holding L.L.

40:02.868 --> 40:03.168 [SPEAKER_02]: Y. Mf.

40:03.228 --> 40:09.153 [SPEAKER_02]: Fifty-six percent is now a good time to sell or should I continue holding do you expect more volatility in the name?

40:10.053 --> 40:11.655 [SPEAKER_02]: All right, I'm not sure.

40:11.675 --> 40:13.416 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's see, this was today.

40:14.847 --> 40:24.833 [SPEAKER_02]: He's up a lot, but Eli is down a lot down to six hundred and twenty five dollars down the last couple of days.

40:24.853 --> 40:26.194 [SPEAKER_02]: Let me take a look here.

40:26.214 --> 40:31.598 [SPEAKER_02]: This has been in a downtrend and this is a good example.

40:31.618 --> 40:32.558 [SPEAKER_02]: This is a great lesson.

40:34.539 --> 40:39.883 [SPEAKER_02]: All the hype about GOP ones and all these companies are going to make a ton of money.

40:41.074 --> 40:51.963 [SPEAKER_02]: And to be fair, earnings went from seven dollars and ninety four cents in twenty twenty two to six thirty two and twenty three so down twenty percent.

40:52.203 --> 40:56.146 [SPEAKER_02]: Then last year up to well up to twelve dollars and ninety nine cents up over a hundred percent.

40:56.986 --> 40:59.729 [SPEAKER_02]: And then earnings this year expected to be twenty two dollars and thirty eight cents.

41:01.770 --> 41:05.353 [SPEAKER_02]: But the stock had discounted that in a big big way.

41:07.955 --> 41:14.059 [SPEAKER_02]: It's been rallying from a low in twenty nineteen a hundred and seventeen dollars and it's a recent high.

41:14.079 --> 41:18.902 [SPEAKER_02]: The nearly a thousand dollars nine hundred and seventy dollars per share.

41:20.544 --> 41:22.305 [SPEAKER_02]: Now it's down thirty five percent from a tie.

41:23.586 --> 41:25.167 [SPEAKER_02]: And it's still trading at.

41:26.007 --> 41:29.450 [SPEAKER_02]: Forty times earnings but based on four looking earnings closer to twenty.

41:32.291 --> 41:37.375 [SPEAKER_02]: And this is the the risk of buying names that already are hyped and priced in.

41:39.073 --> 41:42.594 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, the good news for you, least is your upstill.

41:44.135 --> 41:49.116 [SPEAKER_02]: And the question is, is it, is it still a good value?

41:49.136 --> 41:51.437 [SPEAKER_02]: Will they make thirty dollars and nineteen cents next year?

41:51.817 --> 41:52.497 [SPEAKER_02]: That's the estimate.

41:54.378 --> 41:55.778 [SPEAKER_02]: Obviously the earnings were not great.

41:57.199 --> 41:59.500 [SPEAKER_02]: But the question is, where is major support?

41:59.840 --> 42:01.180 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think there's major support.

42:02.981 --> 42:04.641 [SPEAKER_02]: Until about four hundred and seventy dollars per share.

42:04.701 --> 42:06.262 [SPEAKER_02]: So there's still plenty of downside to go.

42:07.872 --> 42:12.778 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, this is a hard name, the candy cat, because GOP ones, there's competitors.

42:13.819 --> 42:15.320 [SPEAKER_02]: How much are people willing to pay?

42:15.340 --> 42:17.483 [SPEAKER_02]: How much are governments going to pay?

42:17.523 --> 42:23.710 [SPEAKER_02]: The big prediction was that governments were going to start paying for this because it would

42:26.245 --> 42:29.706 [SPEAKER_02]: solve a lot of medical issues for citizens around the world.

42:30.386 --> 42:32.526 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's the time it's fading.

42:33.527 --> 42:36.567 [SPEAKER_02]: And I would be out of this just barely because of the trends.

42:37.367 --> 42:38.348 [SPEAKER_02]: It's down and down trend.

42:39.128 --> 42:41.328 [SPEAKER_02]: The path of least resistance is lower.

42:42.028 --> 42:45.569 [SPEAKER_02]: At some point, I think you pick this up and it's a good value.

42:46.149 --> 42:49.190 [SPEAKER_02]: But my guess is it's probably a couple hundred dollars lower.

42:51.126 --> 42:52.747 [SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for the question.

42:53.408 --> 42:58.311 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, from time to time, we received questions from submissions on the Invest Talk website.

42:59.072 --> 43:01.133 [SPEAKER_02]: Doyle Thompson says, what is your opinion?

43:01.354 --> 43:06.557 [SPEAKER_02]: S-H-Y-G, the zero to five year high-yield corporate bond ETF.

43:07.218 --> 43:10.720 [SPEAKER_02]: I've held it for about five years, and it is down five percent since purchase.

43:10.841 --> 43:13.002 [SPEAKER_02]: It's about twelve percent of my overall portfolio.

43:13.482 --> 43:20.428 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm thinking that it will come back some if the Fed drops rates over the next six months, and at that time, we're looking to reduce my holdings.

43:21.288 --> 43:24.350 [SPEAKER_02]: Ah, this is a great question and a very interesting one.

43:24.790 --> 43:26.611 [SPEAKER_02]: So he's looking at his SHYG.

43:27.092 --> 43:29.353 [SPEAKER_02]: And he's saying, I'm down on the name.

43:29.874 --> 43:34.116 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, he might be down in price, but he's not down in return.

43:35.317 --> 43:35.597 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay.

43:36.117 --> 43:40.360 [SPEAKER_02]: Because this is a high yield corponity if you're getting income.

43:40.380 --> 43:44.583 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, this year it's up five percent year today.

43:45.223 --> 43:46.184 [SPEAKER_02]: This is total return.

43:46.204 --> 43:48.125 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, total return.

43:50.867 --> 43:52.809 [SPEAKER_02]: Last one year, it's at eight point seven percent.

43:53.530 --> 43:55.672 [SPEAKER_02]: Last three years, it's average seven and a half percent.

43:55.692 --> 43:58.315 [SPEAKER_02]: And over last five years, it's average five point five percent.

43:58.355 --> 44:05.883 [SPEAKER_02]: So if you've held it for five years, your total return is five point five percent, including the twelve percent loss.

44:05.903 --> 44:12.550 [SPEAKER_02]: So you're getting your keep on or given it out of this is over five and a half percent because you

44:13.806 --> 44:15.267 [SPEAKER_02]: on the principal, you're down to what percent.

44:15.607 --> 44:17.448 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's what you're down, you're down to what percent.

44:17.488 --> 44:25.972 [SPEAKER_02]: And this is a perfect example of an average versus average investor's mentality, which is on you get back to even.

44:28.413 --> 44:29.674 [SPEAKER_02]: But you're not, you're up.

44:30.514 --> 44:35.296 [SPEAKER_02]: You've returned to five point five percent per year over the last five years in total.

44:36.097 --> 44:36.757 [SPEAKER_02]: You're not down.

44:36.917 --> 44:37.757 [SPEAKER_02]: It might look like you're down.

44:37.777 --> 44:38.958 [SPEAKER_02]: I might say you have a loss.

44:41.079 --> 44:42.820 [SPEAKER_02]: And remember, this is short term bonds.

44:43.922 --> 44:51.885 [SPEAKER_02]: So even if the Fed cuts rates, it's not gonna rally that much, and it's not gonna rally to all percent because it's low duration.

44:53.486 --> 44:55.227 [SPEAKER_02]: So understand what you own.

44:55.907 --> 45:06.991 [SPEAKER_02]: If you don't wanna own it anymore, you have better uses for that money than sell it, who cares if you're down to all percent, your total return is five point five percent annually for the last five years.

45:08.332 --> 45:11.513 [SPEAKER_02]: So don't have that mentality of, I need to break even.

45:12.033 --> 45:13.334 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a terrible mentality to have.

45:15.559 --> 45:32.650 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm Justin Klein, and if they show me, do you think about your own financial picture in any way, your investments, taxes, your retirement planning, whether you need a trust or a will, whether your strategy works in this economic environment.

45:33.371 --> 45:37.834 [SPEAKER_02]: I encourage you to head over to invest.com and schedule a portfolio review with myself for Luke.

45:38.594 --> 45:43.057 [SPEAKER_02]: No costs, and it'll help bring clarity and confidence to your planet.

45:44.770 --> 45:48.234 [SPEAKER_02]: We thank you for listening, we encourage you to tell your friends and family about a free podcast down those.

45:48.354 --> 45:53.801 [SPEAKER_02]: We can find any time that I teach Spotify to play and be sure to rate and review on iTunes as well.

45:54.742 --> 45:56.044 [SPEAKER_02]: Independent thinking, shared success.

45:56.504 --> 45:57.125 [SPEAKER_02]: That's the best thought.

45:57.746 --> 45:58.407 [SPEAKER_02]: Enjoy your weekend.

46:02.143 --> 46:09.745 [SPEAKER_07]: Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial, because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program.

46:10.126 --> 46:14.327 [SPEAKER_07]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments may will apply to that.

46:14.707 --> 46:17.968 [SPEAKER_07]: Specifically, nothing said shall be taken to be investment advice.

46:18.388 --> 46:22.792 [SPEAKER_07]: or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.

46:23.152 --> 46:30.918 [SPEAKER_07]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing.

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46:47.171 --> 46:54.258 [SPEAKER_07]: Thank you for listening and your comments and questions are welcome on our twenty four hour listener line at eight eight eight ninety nine chart