[SPEAKER_00]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_00]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

[SPEAKER_00]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is our Tuesday.

[SPEAKER_01]: August, twelfth, twenty-twenty-five, addition of the best thought I appreciate you all tuning in for this hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's my job to make the most of the hour, make the most of this time with you by answering your finance investment questions, as well as giving you data and perspective that you can bring back to your own personal situation.

[SPEAKER_01]: And make just consistently good decisions with your money.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not just every week or every month, but year after year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what the show every day is really about.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's about helping you take that next step in your investment journey, in your education towards how to capitalize an opportunity, as well as avoid pitfalls.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now just a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk about today's Mark performance and run down the show topics for the next hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: But as usual, we'll tackle this first call of question now.

[SPEAKER_07]: Hi there.

[SPEAKER_07]: This is Harry from the Hayward.

[SPEAKER_07]: California, I'd have a question for you regarding Altura, Tigger Simul, M. Hold.

[SPEAKER_07]: I know it's not the most, I guess, socially accepted business at the end, but it's a company appears to be a cash cow and I just want to get sure a thought on making a position or acquiring from the shares in that company.

[SPEAKER_07]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, looking at ultra-group M-O is the symbol this has been really on a tear from the lows early last year around forty dollars per share.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's sixty six in change as six percent dividend yield even after rising.

[SPEAKER_01]: So dramatically relative strength is eighty five.

[SPEAKER_01]: So one of the better performing equities over the last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And historically, these tobacco stocks and that's what they do.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if they all choose domestic fillet fillet more specifically.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's Philip Morris International that's all the cigarette brands under the Philip Morris umbrella that are overseas, whereas Altria is marble marble and black and mild and some other names domestically here in the US.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now one issue with the name long term is that the use of cigarettes continues to decline

[SPEAKER_01]: domestically.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's still relatively growing abroad, but it's declining domestically, but there can still be ways for them to make high profits in one of that way.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is raising prices, you know, to an addictive product.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so typically, there's a lot of elasticity in the demand.

[SPEAKER_01]: you get a sticky customer base and able to produce pretty strong margins over time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why like they're also getting into some smoke list tobacco as well as I believe they are looking at

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they have a stake in cannabis manufacturer, Kronos as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they have some exposure there, a free cash flow about eight point seven billion on a market of about hundred and ten billion.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're talking about an eight percent free cash flow yield, which is very, very strong.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're trying to invest the capital is thirty nine percent, also very, very strong.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of like it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would I would own it.

[SPEAKER_01]: We own filmores for clients.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we like that one a bit better because of that they have a bit better exposure to smokeless tobacco like Zinn.

[SPEAKER_01]: as well as that growth in users over the long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we lean towards Philip Morris, but all tree is also a good option as well, especially if you're not trying to take that foreign currency risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's one thing you do get with Philip Morris is foreign currency risk, which can cut both ways.

[SPEAKER_01]: It can be a tail once in times it can be a headwind.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we are okay with that risk, but it depends on your preference.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like both.

[SPEAKER_01]: but I lean filled more.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's Tuesday, August, twelve, twenty, twenty, five and summer is heating up and we have a lot to talk about over the next hour or forty five minutes roughly and our main focus point is about understanding ex dividend dates.

[SPEAKER_01]: What are you entitled to a cash or stock dividend?

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll dig into the details there.

[SPEAKER_01]: In addition, we have other topics on the docket.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have a new head of the BLS and Wall Street is a bit concerned about how that is going to settle out when it comes to the data, the integrity of the data.

[SPEAKER_01]: It seems like the new head wants to put those numbers out not monthly, but quarterly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that'll be interesting.

[SPEAKER_01]: Remember, that's not the only number, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: The monthly jobs number that comes out every Friday, every month for the previous month.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not the only way that you can get an understanding of what's happening in labor markets.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are other data points as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll look at what maybe you should start to consider when you're trying to assess the strength of the labor market.

[SPEAKER_01]: In addition, we are

[SPEAKER_01]: headed towards more state capitalism.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's what we're heading.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of what Trump is as ushered in is capitalism that is really driven by many decisions from the federal government from the state.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this has a lot of

[SPEAKER_01]: CCP, Chinese Communist Party ethos to it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll talk about what the parallels are, what the differences are, and what that ultimately means for the strength of the economy long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: In addition, we have other topics on the docket, the mainly your voice bank questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: One is on how to invest in the bond market.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other is

[SPEAKER_01]: BTC, Grayscale Bitcoin, mini trust, and then we have some questions that came in via the comments section on the Investor YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_01]: So well, and of course, I welcome your finance investment questions right now, but we are heading into a break.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I welcome your finance investment questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: No question is too simple or too complex.

[SPEAKER_01]: You set the agenda on a best stock.

[SPEAKER_01]: So give us a call at eight today, nine, nine chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: Serious investors are certain to have finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_02]: Wanted to get your take on WW Granger.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

[SPEAKER_02]: I was wondering from your standpoint, they're at downside in buying fractional shares versus whole shares.

[SPEAKER_02]: And twenty four seven rain or shine, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

[SPEAKER_01]: The issue, though, is really over the last decade or so.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's never maintained this level of profitability for a long period of time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Modernies are incredibly volatile, so when the going is good, take some profit.

[SPEAKER_02]: Your participation makes an investor talk better.

[SPEAKER_02]: My name is Mike.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm calling in from Orange County, California.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is Lewis calling from Bolivia.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's go talk to Chris and me.

[SPEAKER_02]: So don't forget to call, investor talk.

[SPEAKER_02]: First off, great show.

[SPEAKER_02]: I went one, you two.

[SPEAKER_02]: Eight, eight, eight, ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: Twenty twenty five rolls on and you might have some fresh questions for Justin or Luke call in Vestock eight eight eight ninety nine chart

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go take a look at the market today.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was a decidedly positive day overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had some broad-based strength in almost every sector.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had the S&P up over one percent, NASDAQ up one point, four percent, DAO is up one point, one percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let me pull that, let me get this pulling up some data set here.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you had some strength, meta, broad calm, or stronger.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the chip names were had some good through two, three, four percent moves.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really the weakness, really wasn't what much weakness overall, Amazon was flat, but then you had Johnson Johnson negative, felt more as a little bit negative.

[SPEAKER_01]: But besides that, industrials, I guess you could say some of the industrial space was negative waste management and the like, we're negative.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I could say overall, you had broad base strength, let's see if there was.

[SPEAKER_01]: There we go.

[SPEAKER_01]: The weakest sector was real estate up point two percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Strongest was communications up one point nine percent on the back of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Meta move technology up one point five materials up one point three financials up one point two.

[SPEAKER_01]: So those are the strong sectors in today's market.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was really on the back of the CPI number.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now this always gets big headlines.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's

[SPEAKER_01]: The greatest headline because PPI, which comes out Thursday produce a price index, that is typically more instructive on where inflation is.

[SPEAKER_01]: Typically, there's a two month, two to three months lead time of what PPI is doing and how that feeds into inflation.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll be watching Thursday's number more intently, but the market certainly honed in on this number.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a bit mixed.

[SPEAKER_01]: Core CPI was at point three percent month over month, pretty much in line with consensus, but annualized cores up three point one percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: So clearly, we're getting a mild acceleration in core CPI.

[SPEAKER_01]: And surprising, though, wasn't driven by tariffs.

[SPEAKER_01]: Categories were, tariff categories were mixed.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so you had a parallel up point one percent versus point four percent in June.

[SPEAKER_01]: Although used vehicles up point five percent versus negative point seven percent in June home furnishings up point seven and deceleration from one percent in June appliances were negative point nine percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're seeing some deceleration there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it was kind of mixed.

[SPEAKER_01]: It really wasn't the, the inflation wasn't driven by actual physical products.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was mainly actually on the services side, which kind of echoed what you saw from the services PMI last week, let's try to solve the prices paid index re accelerating and you had a kind of a deflation, sorry, stagnationary report on that front.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're getting a little bit of that here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Core services increase point four percent accelerating from point three percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: in June.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that was mainly the driver that pushed that core CPI higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Overall, it wasn't a terrible report, it was more mixed.

[SPEAKER_01]: But in the market, overall tended to like it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that was the economic news, Bitcoin features, right, .seven percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: The dollar was down, .five percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: gold finished up point two, sorry, down point two percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you are seeing an increase after this number, you're seeing an increasing likelihood that there will be a Fed rate cut in a September.

[SPEAKER_01]: We were a little north of eighty percent before today, now we're a little north of ninety percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why you sell the dollar down a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: The yield curve steepened where the two year fell a little bit down about three basis points.

[SPEAKER_01]: versus the long end actually went up a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're starting to see that where you get this, the steeping the yield curve that typically happens as you're going into recession.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's called a bear steepener where you get the long end going up and the short end going down.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of what you've seen in markets to day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now let's go

[SPEAKER_01]: Answer a question that came in via the invest talk YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here's when that came in earlier Jim lays says, MetLife will back after earnings.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think it's a good buy?

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a look at MET is the symbol MetLife.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this is a large company, thirty one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, fifty one billion dollar market cap earnings expectations for this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Next year are coming down.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's because of that drop there.

[SPEAKER_01]: About three percent dividend yields.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a life insurance provider, newities, employee benefits, asset management services, most people in their who met life is we take a look at some profitability metrics and chart because certainly want to make sure we're in a good trend, even though we might have pulled back recently.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it's still in a broader uptrend.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have no problem with it technically.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, no issue there.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have relative strength at thirty, which isn't great.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the insurance industry has slowed.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a more of a non-cyclical type of financial that you might want to own kind of a risk off financial sector.

[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously it's been more of a risk off environment for the past few months.

[SPEAKER_01]: So not a shock there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Overall though, MetLife very, very good company with high profitability return equity around fifteen percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Cashflow about fifteen billion on a mark cap of fifty billion.

[SPEAKER_01]: I certainly like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: What does number of shares outstanding are declining?

[SPEAKER_01]: So they're buying back shares consistently.

[SPEAKER_01]: Overall, I think it's a solid name.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would continue to buy a met life if you were looking for a large relatively safe life insurance.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we're moving into a break.

[SPEAKER_01]: Still to come.

[SPEAKER_01]: My focus point.

[SPEAKER_01]: And more answers to your questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I encourage you to call now on a best.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could eight, eight, nine, nine chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: Have you heard about the new Invest Talk Store?

[SPEAKER_02]: That's right.

[SPEAKER_02]: You'll find great merch for the savvy investor.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's all there for you now at InvestTalkStore.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: And now Justin Klein is here and taking your finance and investment questions live.

[SPEAKER_02]: Call Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those could take a live call, Bill from San Rafael, looking at Bix, FIX, which is comfort systems, USA.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is in the heating and ventilation and air conditioning services business domestically.

[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously they're doing very, very well with the data center, build out and earnings are rising considerably.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm assuming this is why you are attracted to the name, correct?

[SPEAKER_02]: That is correct.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now do you think that that trend will continue at the same pace?

[SPEAKER_06]: That's the question I was going to ask you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, well, it's certainly a fervent pace.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, my answer over the medium to long term is no, uh, I think near-term it can.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't believe, you know, I look at the CapEx spend for the hyperscalers, just simply four names talking about three to fifty billion dollars in CapEx this year talking roughly eighty billion dollars on average each.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that is to build out these data centers.

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, the big question is, are they going to be able to pull in the requisite amount of revenue to make up for that capex?

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, eighty billion dollars is a lot of money, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, for Google, for example, they do ninety six billion dollars a quarter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, eighty billion dollars a year in Cap X is roughly a quarter of their revenue.

[SPEAKER_01]: Can they find an ROI on that?

[SPEAKER_01]: Or are they just building?

[SPEAKER_01]: just for scale for, you know, the chasing the, the compete race, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And winning the AI race.

[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously there's a lot of risk in that.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think at some point, they're going to say, and I think Microsoft has done this a little bit and said, you know, let's scale this back a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that will be the result in the medium term.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think when that happens, you see a slowdown in that, it's going to impact these names.

[SPEAKER_01]: So can the trends continue in the short term?

[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think there is a realization over the next eighteen, twenty four months that this level of CapExpend is just too high to find any semblance of reasonable ROI.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so that's my general sense.

[SPEAKER_01]: That doesn't mean that there is going to be long-term demand for more heating and air conditioning services and products.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just, is it going to be at this pace?

[SPEAKER_01]: And I frankly, I don't think so.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I would be reticent to

[SPEAKER_01]: jump into fix at these levels with this level of a multiple trading at, because a slowdown here of any kind in growth will hurt their multiple considerably.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, a name to keep on the watch list, keep on the radar.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'll go through a correction period in a lot of these names, and that's when you'll probably want to be picking up a lot of the HVAC companies.

[SPEAKER_06]: Sounds good.

[SPEAKER_06]: Thanks Justin.

[SPEAKER_01]: No problem.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go take a voicemail call from eight to eight ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_04]: Hi, guys.

[SPEAKER_04]: This is Eric from New York.

[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks for all the information that you guys give.

[SPEAKER_04]: Every day in your podcast, I'm going to have a the scenario on my hour and a half commute.

[SPEAKER_04]: You guys talk about investing in stocks and bonds and other types of foreign investment products.

[SPEAKER_04]: I'm a typical retail investor.

[SPEAKER_04]: I have the typical retail investor apps that I use.

[SPEAKER_04]: I don't really have a financial advisor.

[SPEAKER_04]: How can someone like me actually go about investing in a corporate bonds or municipal bonds?

[SPEAKER_04]: How can someone like me get involved in the actual bond market?

[SPEAKER_04]: I hear you guys talk about it a lot in terms of diversification, rate of return, everything like that.

[SPEAKER_04]: I actually don't really, I guess maybe I should look a little bit more, but I don't have a lot of exposure into the bonds.

[SPEAKER_04]: I'm just buying stocks, buying ETFs.

[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, it could look into that for me.

[SPEAKER_04]: That would be great and I'll listen to it on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_04]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sounds good.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are many ways to invest in the bond market for the average investor like yourself.

[SPEAKER_01]: The ETF is probably this simple way.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, bonds are completely different beast than equities.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you really have to educate yourself on the risks that are there.

[SPEAKER_01]: The main two are credit risk, meaning defaults.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you buy an ETF for mutual fund or mutual funds that hold bonds and bond funds there,

[SPEAKER_01]: You get diversification, so you don't get a lot of default risk of individual names, because you're so spread out, but you can get yield spreads widening out, and you can lose money over short periods of time when you take a lot of credit risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: So understand that.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's duration risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: which is how long with the maturity length of these bonds that you're holding in that particular fund.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you want to really understand that and figure out how much risk you want to take.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then you can also buy individual bonds.

[SPEAKER_01]: Your broker probably has a bond desk.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're at one of the major brokers, you can call them up and discuss, eventually buying a new individual bond as well, and they'll probably help you understand the risk there as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, a lot of ways to do it, but make sure you do your research before you fire on anything.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're heading into a break.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm ready to take your calls right now on a best talk at eight and eight and I'm sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: In Vestar, your questions are free, the answers are unbiased.

[SPEAKER_02]: Justin Klein is here now, eight, eight, eight, ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: Our main focus point today is about understanding ex dividend dates and when you're entitled to the dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a question I get a lot and it's important, especially when you're a dividend investor, you're an income investor when do you need to own the stock so that you receive the dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, there are two important dates.

[SPEAKER_01]: One is the record date.

[SPEAKER_01]: and the X dividend date.

[SPEAKER_01]: The record date is when you must be on the company's books as a shareholder to receive the dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: The X dividend date is usually set one business day before the record date.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's also a pay date when you're actually getting the dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's usually somewhere around one to three weeks later.

[SPEAKER_01]: Two is probably average.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's important to know how this works.

[SPEAKER_01]: So for example, if the record date is on a weekend, it's going to be the first business day before that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if it falls on a weekend, the first business day would be Friday, that would be X dividend date.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now you can't buy the stock on the X dividend date, expect to get the dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have to buy it before the X dividend date and own it's at the close before the X dividend date.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so the market opens on the x divinate, you need to be a shareholder of the company.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's when you will get your be entitled to your divinate, then you get it on the payday.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's, now that's for normal dividends.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now there's also special dividends.

[SPEAKER_01]: Many companies do this.

[SPEAKER_01]: They spend, they, they,

[SPEAKER_01]: Pay big, special dividends.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oftentimes, twenty-five percent more of the stock's value.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if it's over twenty-five percent, then it's a special dividend and other special rules apply.

[SPEAKER_01]: The accidentally will be deferred until one business day after the dividend is paid.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, for example, you, in order to get that dividend, you will be actually paid a day before.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, and so you need to own it on that day.

[SPEAKER_01]: And sometimes a company pays a dividend in the form of a stock rather than cash.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you still have a stock before the X dividend, you are selling away your rights to the stock dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so if it's in a form of a socket also similar to your standard dividend, right, you have to own it before that X dividend date.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I know this can be complicated, but to keep it simple, you know, you don't want to be trading on these names around the X dividend date.

[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't make sense.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not what this is for, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: The dividend stocks are for more long-term buying holds as opposed to trading.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people say I'm gonna buy it before the X dividend date, so I get the dividend and sell it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, usually the stock will drop the value of that dividend on that date.

[SPEAKER_01]: So really long-term what dividends are there for is to create discipline, not just for you the equity holder.

[SPEAKER_01]: so that you consistently get that dividend, but actually for management.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because management doesn't want to be the ones who cut the dividend, and so typically they reserve that cash, and they are more prudent with the excess cash left over that they can use for acquisitions or capbacks or anything to invest and grow the business.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that capital discipline is vital to a long-term success of the company.

[SPEAKER_01]: because that's what return equity is about.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's okay, how much of their earnings are they taking you and investing it back in the business and then earning more on that money?

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a big factor here that helps drive returns for dividend payers over the long term and companies that are prudent with the capital of the reinvesting in their business.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes they can get over skis and make that decisions and that can kneecap the company long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: So dividends create that consistent payout which also most are more often than not creates consistent discipline by the management teams.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a live call.

[SPEAKER_01]: James New York looking at ASPI.

[SPEAKER_06]: Yes, I have a position in ASPI and I've done very well with it.

[SPEAKER_06]: It's currently at all time I right now.

[SPEAKER_06]: And I have no plans of selling.

[SPEAKER_06]: I thought this might be a high risk.

[SPEAKER_06]: I reward uranium play.

[SPEAKER_06]: But no warning to ship.

[SPEAKER_06]: But if this were to have earnings and there be a nuclear renaissance could this be a mean that would

[SPEAKER_06]: I actually haven't heard of this name.

[SPEAKER_01]: If I've done some research in the nuclear space, it's a pretty small name only a one billion dollar market cap and that's after going up from about four dollars and change in March.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's a eleven dollars and change.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it used to be about a four hundred billion million dollar market.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's about a billion dollar market.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's definitely a micro cap.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it makes sense why I haven't heard of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: The trends are still good.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let me look at.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would probably continue to own it because of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: that momentum.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, is it a long-term hold?

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably not because, like you said, very little revenue last quarter only one million dollars in revenue.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's just a loose thirty-nine cents this year, twenty-six cents next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of it is

[SPEAKER_01]: a story.

[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, I don't know that story.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if I understood it deeper, maybe I would be more bullish on it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have any color to what is the longer term story here besides, oh, it's around uranium and isotopes.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is the application for their technology?

[SPEAKER_06]: I think the fair producing a material resource called Halo.

[SPEAKER_06]: And I believe that if done,

[SPEAKER_06]: It is a very data on a cost effective way to execute production of that resource.

[SPEAKER_06]: So that is what I understand about it, but otherwise, I don't have a ton of information either.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so, you know, that's my big issue too, is you don't really understand the full application of their technology.

[SPEAKER_01]: Will it, to me, it seems that it's more usually these isotopes are around medical applications, opposed to industrial applications, which the,

[SPEAKER_01]: Uranium space is really sport right around energy and industrial capacity, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I would want to understand the story a bit better.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would probably hold it because like I said, it's good momentum.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's up a lot right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would probably have a tight stop on it.

[SPEAKER_01]: okay and it's probably a trailing stop something like a ten twelve percent trailing stop something like that there were I can avoid major drawdowns in the stock but still allow for big days like today was up thirteen percent and and keep that momentum going uh... but understand this is probably not a name you want to own forever because these type of story stocks tend to fizzle out once the

[SPEAKER_01]: idea of their technology doesn't fully come to fruition.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's keep things moving and roll in another listener question.

[SPEAKER_05]: I have a question about crypto.

[SPEAKER_05]: I have a very, very small small amount of Bitcoin, BTC.

[SPEAKER_05]: Could you teach me a little bit about what to look for as a technical analysis?

[SPEAKER_05]: You taught a lot about fundamental analysis and cryptocurrency doesn't necessarily have any fundamentals, but all I see right now is that it says a peak.

[SPEAKER_05]: And then I need to write the wave.

[SPEAKER_05]: But what would you say would be like a good two hundred-day moving average or like a cell point or something like that, looking forward to the answer on the podcast and have a great day.

[SPEAKER_05]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, a Bitcoin is an uptrend.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ethereum has done well lately, although I'm seeing some signs popping there.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the trend is positive mainly because liquidity is strong.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you're right.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're, you know, what is the fundamental value of Bitcoin is kind of nebulous, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And

[SPEAKER_01]: You go through these crypto winters, and that mainly is when liquidity adds in the global economy, whether that's central banks being more aggressive, or just balance sheet capacity, worldwide starts to dry up.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is typically when you get liquidity changing.

[SPEAKER_01]: And odds are good.

[SPEAKER_01]: You are going to get that over the next quality team months.

[SPEAKER_01]: But in the meantime, Bitcoin is an uptrend, and you probably want to ride that trend.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I could easily see this getting up to a one-fifty around one-twenty right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Around one-fifty during this cycle, probably before the next crypto winter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, what would you use to say, okay, the new crypto winter is upon us?

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably the two hundred day living average would probably be the simplest measure.

[SPEAKER_01]: We did test that back in April, held it briefly, and it continues to rally.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I would be okay with holding it for a period of time, but as you get deeper, especially into twenty twenty six, I think that's the time where risk starts to elevate across broad

[SPEAKER_01]: asset values, and crypto tends to be the one that tops first.

[SPEAKER_01]: So understand that that is a good sign of, and this is a lesson for this caller as well as other, every other investor is, you know, you need to watch Bitcoin even if you don't want to invest in it and you don't really believe in it, that's fine.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is a proxy for liquidity in the marketplace.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so,

[SPEAKER_01]: When that breaks, when there is now a downtrend in Bitcoin and broader crypto, that is a sign that a liquidity is drying up, and that will feed into the rest of the market.

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably equities next typically, but high growth, high valued equities, and then spreads from there into the broader markets, maybe even high yield bonds, et cetera, and you get a more risk-off environment.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we're not there yet, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because that Bitcoin isn't an uptrend and you want to hold it and continue to watch for a major break of major moving averages.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, I'm looking at I bit IDIT that's a good simple way to look at it.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's obviously crypto.

[SPEAKER_01]: websites that you can you can pull that up.

[SPEAKER_01]: But right now on I bit it's around fifty five to two day moving average and I bit certain about sixty eight.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's certainly some leeway there for Bitcoin to have more continue volatility which which it will and for without the trend breaking.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd be looking mainly at moving averages and keep it simple with your Bitcoin technical analysis.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go with another YouTube comment question.

[SPEAKER_01]: Tyler Nichol says, can you give me your opinion on Quart C-O-R-T right now?

[SPEAKER_01]: I have it in my brokerage account.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was wondering if I should sell and get out while I can.

[SPEAKER_01]: What would be a good price to buy?

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you think it is a buy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So C-O-R-T is the symbol.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a name and if I remember correctly in the biotech space,

[SPEAKER_01]: There we go.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's about a seven point eight billion dollar market cap.

[SPEAKER_01]: Real distance is at ninety.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's certainly in a strong uptrend.

[SPEAKER_01]: Interesting enough.

[SPEAKER_01]: This had a big jump in March from around fifty five dollars all the way to a high of a hundred and sixteen roughly.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then it had a sharp reversal back down to sixty two and then it's kind of shop sideways since then.

[SPEAKER_01]: Trading now around seventy-three.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's in an uptrend, it's been an uptrend for a while, but interesting reversal there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ernie's expected to be a dollar seven this year, down thirty percent of last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was supposed to go up to two dollars and eighteen cents next year, although analysts are downgrading those expectations as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've helped drugs to treat psychiatry, psychiatric, and metabolic disorders associated with steroid, homework, hormone, cortisol, interesting type of products.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's enough trend.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you want to certainly ride that trend.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it's trading at a pretty hefty multiple, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: If it's supposed to earn two dollars per share next year on a seventy three dollar stock, it's a mid-thirties multiple, not terrible with that growth.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's heavily predicated on it hitting those earnings.

[SPEAKER_01]: Number, I want to dig in why analysts think earnings are going to rise.

[SPEAKER_01]: So dramatically, is it a certain

[SPEAKER_01]: drug is going to hit market or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's what I would be certainly watching revenues up twenty three percent expected this upcoming quarter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Does have solid return equity even before that jump in earnings return equity right now is twenty percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Which is good three cash flows positive which for biotech names those.

[SPEAKER_01]: Are few and far between.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like the fact that it does have solid cash flow and that cash flow is rising.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's still trading at a pretty high multiple prices sales at around nine.

[SPEAKER_01]: But once again, if it does hit those earnings numbers for next year, around two dollars per share, I think it's a fine aim to continue to hold.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I want to be very confident in that story.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why is it expected to increase profit so dramatically?

[SPEAKER_01]: And if I'm comfortable with that, I would continue to hold it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now we have time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's play another question now.

[SPEAKER_08]: Hey guys, I appreciate the show, become a daily listener.

[SPEAKER_08]: I've got a stock high up in my watch list.

[SPEAKER_08]: I'm wondering what do you think of a stock and where support might be in what might be a good entry point.

[SPEAKER_08]: And that stock is sketches, ticker SKX.

[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you much.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, looking at sketches and it looks like sketches is

[SPEAKER_01]: It's being bought up, shall we say.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is trading, but I believe it was being bought out by private equity firm, private equity firm, if remember correctly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just kind of hanging out here, right around a sixty three dollars per share, that announcement was back in May.

[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I would continue.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would just sell it honestly, in case the deal falls through, but I would, yeah, just sell sketches.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the best stock I'm just inclined with one goal here each every weekend.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's helped you achieve your own version of furniture freedom and I work it to use after this final breaks.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's questions in right now at eight and eight ninety nine chart and don't forget to cruise over to the best stock store.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's open now at the best stock store.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: The calls are free.

[SPEAKER_02]: The unbiased answers are free.

[SPEAKER_02]: So what are you waiting for?

[SPEAKER_02]: Call in Vestock, eight, eight, nine, chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's good to bill in Northern California looking at Buckle, B, K, E. Yeah, hey, just didn't get afternoon.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I have a fair-sized position in this.

[SPEAKER_03]: My brokerage and also my retirement accounts, I bought it at the low recently.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I've traded it a few times over the years and done well with that.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's breaking out to New I think all time high.

[SPEAKER_03]: Do you see a particular reason for that?

[SPEAKER_03]: And do you think it's justified the current time?

[SPEAKER_03]: And do you think it would go much higher than this?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, this is the name that we do own for clients in our cover call strategy, going for a while.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's one of the most kind of under-appreciated, under-loved companies that are out there with net cash in its balance sheet, it pays consistent

[SPEAKER_01]: Special dividends and has high return equity, forty three percent good cash flow around two hundred million trailing twelve months on a enterprise value of two point four billion so you're talking about eight nine percent free cash flow yield it's and so it's just a consistent business and it's not exciting because it typically it's it remains relatively small to relatively low growth revenue last quarter early four percent

[SPEAKER_01]: And earnings for up one percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, that's I think why a lot of you don't hate that to a two point billion dollar.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah And yeah

[SPEAKER_01]: Why are they paying attention now?

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not seeing a particular catalyst except for people are getting into looking for value and it's difficult to find value out there, maybe.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really not sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, small caps are doing a bit better in this would qualify as a small cap.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we're not seeing a particular case.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is more of one of those names where we get the nice special pivoting regularly.

[SPEAKER_01]: We get the consistent

[SPEAKER_01]: It's in our cover call strategy so we do sell a lot of cover calls on the name, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the way we are playing and it's been a great performer to play the

[SPEAKER_01]: The range is, and now it's breaking out of the range, which has been in for a while, which was, you know, I and around fifty dollars per share.

[SPEAKER_01]: We do have a value closer to seventy dollars per share.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's at fifty five now.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe just the market waking up, and that happens sometimes.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, market ignores it for a period of time, and then the market wakes up to its value.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can go higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it is very over bought.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't expect it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do, we do expect a pullback at some point over, you know, the next.

[SPEAKER_01]: a couple of months, maybe with the broader market, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it continues being a name we want to own on pullback.

[SPEAKER_01]: So not a name you get into right now, but should be an everyone's watch list for pullback.

[SPEAKER_01]: And typically, these are names that pull back to the fifty-day moving average, which right now is around in the mid-forties.

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably time goes on, trends towards fifty.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's probably where I pick it up at around fifty dollars per share.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's very helpful.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's another question that came in via web form.

[SPEAKER_01]: Peter D says Eastman Kodak has dropped a lot lately.

[SPEAKER_01]: You like to stock in the past, so did I, should I start my position now and take advantage of the price drop.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now Eastman Kodak is certainly a good business, but it does

[SPEAKER_01]: post some considerable risks at the current time because of the the debt levels.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: It does have a decent amount of obviously it's been around for a long, long time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, it's not a ton of debt, but certainly based on its size, it is a risk that's out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And earnings are expected to fall twenty-three percent this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And when that happens, you have some debt.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the market starts to worry that that debt can no longer be paid.

[SPEAKER_01]: A free cash will still afford a million trading twelve months.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you have to like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if you look last quarter, free cash will get to only eighty three million.

[SPEAKER_01]: to eighty three million in the quarter before that, it was actually negative three hundred million.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I do think this is a good value long term at these prices.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're talking about an enterprise value, you bit around six point eight and

[SPEAKER_01]: That is near the low end of its range.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I do think this is a good opportunity for Eastman, even though it is remains high risk because of that debt.

[SPEAKER_01]: So understand that, make sure you're willing to take that risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a very solid company with good cash flows, but the debt does pose some risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I'm Justin Klein, and if today's show, maybe you think about your own financial situation in any way, your broader financial plan, your investment strategy, et cetera, I encourage you to head over to vest.com and click on the portfolio review button and schedule a no-cost portfolio review with myself for a loop, help bring clarity and confidence to your path forward.

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