00:04.336 --> 00:13.081 [SPEAKER_04]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

00:13.702 --> 00:16.063 [SPEAKER_04]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

00:18.084 --> 00:26.790 [SPEAKER_04]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

00:27.470 --> 00:32.173 [SPEAKER_04]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero.

00:36.750 --> 00:39.972 [SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon, fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk.

00:40.752 --> 00:41.432 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lou Grayron.

00:41.473 --> 00:46.635 [SPEAKER_01]: Today is Friday, August, fifteenth, twenty, twenty, five.

00:47.356 --> 00:48.536 [SPEAKER_01]: The fifteenth is the sixteenth.

00:48.576 --> 00:48.876 [SPEAKER_01]: Who knows?

00:50.497 --> 00:51.178 [SPEAKER_01]: Fifteenth is.

00:51.398 --> 00:55.500 [SPEAKER_01]: Which means you're officially halfway through the month of August.

00:57.027 --> 00:59.107 [SPEAKER_01]: And unfortunately, he'd be very bad news.

00:59.127 --> 01:01.328 [SPEAKER_01]: Your summer is almost over.

01:02.128 --> 01:11.850 [SPEAKER_01]: So as your kids go back to school, as things get to bat be in the full swing of life, it becomes more and more difficult to pay attention to the all that is happening around us.

01:12.430 --> 01:19.632 [SPEAKER_01]: And so we heard in Vestock, see our mission is helping you, sift through the noise, find out what matters.

01:22.080 --> 01:26.403 [SPEAKER_01]: with the goal being making you a better and more informed investor.

01:27.163 --> 01:34.407 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, we do that by bringing some educational items and some actionable material to the table each and every day, five days a week.

01:35.128 --> 01:42.272 [SPEAKER_01]: But the most important part of this show, because after all, it is about you, is answering your finance and investment questions.

01:43.373 --> 01:49.897 [SPEAKER_01]: To that end, before we talk about today's market performance and run down those show topics, let's tackle this color question now.

01:50.389 --> 01:51.270 [SPEAKER_06]: Hey, Justin Aluth.

01:51.371 --> 01:52.592 [SPEAKER_06]: This is Rico from New York.

01:53.133 --> 01:53.935 [SPEAKER_06]: I'm Colin just here.

01:53.955 --> 01:58.021 [SPEAKER_06]: Your pennies on the company FI serve, ticker symbol FI.

01:58.562 --> 02:00.404 [SPEAKER_06]: It's at a very low rate wage right now.

02:00.464 --> 02:01.847 [SPEAKER_06]: I wasn't with a long term.

02:02.107 --> 02:03.970 [SPEAKER_06]: How a business model will serve a long term.

02:04.110 --> 02:04.390 [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.

02:05.178 --> 02:14.468 [SPEAKER_01]: Pfizer ticker FI is a FinTech payment solutions processing e-commerce company big mouthful there.

02:15.069 --> 02:21.976 [SPEAKER_01]: Their primary business is working with merchants for digital commerce, mobile payments and fraud protection.

02:22.957 --> 02:37.200 [SPEAKER_01]: Over the past three months, or rather over the past one month, the stock is about flat down fourteen percent over the past three months down thirty three point four five percent over the past year.

02:37.220 --> 02:39.700 [SPEAKER_01]: Apologies of the past one month down seventeen percent.

02:40.500 --> 02:47.822 [SPEAKER_01]: One of the reasons why other than the, let's say structural softness of the industry more broadly is

02:51.355 --> 03:01.757 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, the competition, not just among the smaller payment processors, this is a pretty small one relatively speaking, only seventy three billion dollar mark cap.

03:03.715 --> 03:06.876 [SPEAKER_01]: But because of really what's going on with stablecoins, now to that end, right?

03:07.276 --> 03:15.918 [SPEAKER_01]: FI serve, did launch, FI-USD in the past couple of months, developing a partnership with PayPal hoping to step into that space.

03:16.578 --> 03:20.299 [SPEAKER_01]: But it's still down forty-two percent ish over the past six months.

03:20.799 --> 03:24.260 [SPEAKER_01]: It's underperforming the industry about six point four percent, the broader S&P.

03:24.580 --> 03:26.701 [SPEAKER_01]: It is underperforming dramatically.

03:28.272 --> 03:32.574 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's in spite of profit margins being somewhat resilient here.

03:32.614 --> 03:34.495 [SPEAKER_01]: They're net margin elevated.

03:35.535 --> 03:57.645 [SPEAKER_01]: Now they hit a local peak in twenty twenty three about sixteen percent projected to be twenty six point nine percent is upcoming year growth though albeit a fifteen percent on an annualized basis going back five years slowing dramatically barely any growth revenue growth at all from twenty twenty four twenty twenty five only projected to be about three hundred million in growth

03:58.405 --> 04:01.428 [SPEAKER_01]: on a twenty billion dollar figure from last year.

04:01.448 --> 04:08.696 [SPEAKER_01]: And so because of that, right, you're seeing forward looking price turnings, tilt towards that downside, towards the low end of that spectrum.

04:08.716 --> 04:16.444 [SPEAKER_01]: Over the past five years, price to book also sitting at about its average price to sales near that low as well.

04:18.566 --> 04:20.428 [SPEAKER_01]: And so the question is, can they execute?

04:21.495 --> 04:28.904 [SPEAKER_01]: On one of the big initiatives, which is that stable coin partnership with PayPal, will they be able to execute moving forward?

04:28.924 --> 04:36.433 [SPEAKER_01]: Does this deep pullback give you a long term investors a good price to enter?

04:40.378 --> 04:47.742 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, for me, unfortunately, you know, this is a company that has a bit of debt, not a crazy amount of debt for its seventy-three billion dollar market cap.

04:47.802 --> 04:49.863 [SPEAKER_01]: It's still nearly thirty billion dollars in debt.

04:50.263 --> 04:51.244 [SPEAKER_01]: It's cash flow looks better.

04:51.284 --> 04:52.644 [SPEAKER_01]: It's buying back shares.

04:53.905 --> 04:59.268 [SPEAKER_01]: Either way, right, we're still seeing growth slow in a market that is incredibly competitive.

05:00.088 --> 05:08.173 [SPEAKER_01]: And when you're talking about investing within the FinTech payment processing space, it is a space that is dominated by players that have been there for decades.

05:08.993 --> 05:10.553 [SPEAKER_01]: And we'll not give up market share lightly.

05:10.973 --> 05:17.534 [SPEAKER_01]: And so until I see some sort of turnaround in growth, right, earnings were okay, not particularly stellar.

05:17.574 --> 05:20.115 [SPEAKER_01]: They did just recently report earnings.

05:20.415 --> 05:21.895 [SPEAKER_01]: They will report again in October.

05:21.915 --> 05:23.035 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.

05:23.055 --> 05:30.637 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't see any catalysts towards the upside after, well, three, four, six months of a consistent downward trend.

05:31.077 --> 05:34.117 [SPEAKER_01]: Breaking below, previous support trying to find some here.

05:35.197 --> 05:38.458 [SPEAKER_01]: That is, Pfizer, ticker, V. Thanks for the call.

05:40.605 --> 05:42.847 [SPEAKER_01]: Got a lot of ground cover the next forty five minutes or so.

05:42.887 --> 05:45.029 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a little bit of what I have planned.

05:45.609 --> 05:47.491 [SPEAKER_01]: My main focus point concerns this topic.

05:48.692 --> 05:52.395 [SPEAKER_01]: Strategic interdependence is rewriting the global economy.

05:53.156 --> 06:03.485 [SPEAKER_01]: The US-Charm Economic Relationship has fundamentally shifted from focusing solely on cost and efficiency to prioritizing geopolitics, security, and supply chain resilience.

06:04.632 --> 06:11.597 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll also touch on a new hypothesis about why tariffs haven't dramatically boosted inflation as was predicted.

06:12.538 --> 06:20.644 [SPEAKER_01]: And that story didn't quite get to on Wednesday about America's housing market and how that is following especially in cities that saw a boom.

06:21.104 --> 06:30.171 [SPEAKER_01]: It should be of time at the end of the show a quick preview of what may come in September with US corporate bond, the US corporate bond market.

06:31.692 --> 06:40.599 [SPEAKER_01]: As always, we will also be answering your voice bank questions, including one on DoorDash, Ticker, D-A-S-H, another on Barry Corp, Ticker, B-R-Y.

06:41.740 --> 06:51.228 [SPEAKER_01]: And as always, your finance and investment questions that you decided to submit over on the investment on YouTube channel, and hopefully some live calls throughout the show.

06:52.878 --> 06:54.181 [SPEAKER_01]: We're headed into our first break.

06:54.421 --> 06:56.124 [SPEAKER_01]: It is a quick one and only come back.

06:56.144 --> 07:00.132 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk about today's market activity and dive right in to the rest of this program.

07:00.513 --> 07:01.575 [SPEAKER_01]: You're listening to Invest Talk.

07:01.876 --> 07:03.799 [SPEAKER_01]: Give me a call at eighty eight ninety nine chart.

07:08.283 --> 07:13.226 [SPEAKER_05]: Serious investors are certain to have finance and investment questions.

07:13.446 --> 07:17.308 [SPEAKER_05]: Wanted to get your take on WW Granger.

07:17.509 --> 07:21.851 [SPEAKER_05]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

07:21.871 --> 07:27.374 [SPEAKER_02]: I was wondering from your standpoint if they're at downside in buying fractional shares versus whole shares.

07:27.655 --> 07:36.540 [SPEAKER_05]: And twenty four seven rain or shine, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

07:36.900 --> 07:40.202 [SPEAKER_01]: The issue, though, is really over the last decade or so.

07:40.562 --> 07:44.304 [SPEAKER_01]: It's never maintained this level of profitability for a long period of time.

07:44.324 --> 07:48.186 [SPEAKER_01]: Modernies are incredibly volatile, so when the going is good, take some profit.

07:48.386 --> 07:51.288 [SPEAKER_05]: Your participation makes an investor talk better.

07:51.548 --> 07:54.009 [SPEAKER_05]: My name is Mike, I'm calling in from Orange County, California.

07:54.029 --> 07:56.311 [SPEAKER_05]: This is Louis, calling from Bolivia.

07:56.431 --> 07:58.292 [SPEAKER_05]: Let's go talk to Chris and me.

07:58.512 --> 08:01.253 [SPEAKER_05]: So don't forget to call, investor talk.

08:01.473 --> 08:02.594 [SPEAKER_05]: First off, great show.

08:02.814 --> 08:03.795 [SPEAKER_05]: I went one, you two.

08:04.075 --> 08:06.296 [SPEAKER_05]: Eight, eight, eight, ninety nine chart.

08:11.842 --> 08:15.847 [SPEAKER_05]: The calls are free, the unbiased answers are free.

08:16.408 --> 08:18.511 [SPEAKER_05]: So what are you waiting for?

08:19.031 --> 08:20.093 [SPEAKER_05]: Call in Vestock.

08:25.083 --> 08:43.904 [SPEAKER_01]: Before we move any further into those interesting stories and answering more of your questions, let's talk a little bit about the market today and in a week slightly positive and spite of being mostly lower on the day, the Dow is up eight basis points, S&P-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-F-

08:47.425 --> 08:53.869 [SPEAKER_01]: And the downside of the SAP Nasdaq pretty limited still posting, like I said, solid weekly gains, Russell, two thousand.

08:54.390 --> 09:01.595 [SPEAKER_01]: Captain of its best week since June, and in a year where breath has been an issue, certainly something that investors like to see.

09:02.455 --> 09:10.581 [SPEAKER_01]: Under performers on the day included a semis on some weak earnings, credit card names, investment banks, networking, IT, and equipment.

09:11.241 --> 09:14.304 [SPEAKER_01]: Big tech pretty mixed overall in the best performers.

09:15.004 --> 09:25.531 [SPEAKER_01]: Managed Care United Health Care on the wake of news that Buffett's Berkshire took a position, had a good day today, farm and names, biotech department stores, airlines, and chemicals.

09:27.051 --> 09:38.899 [SPEAKER_01]: On the bond side, treasuries, a bit weaker, we did see some curve steepening, yield them along and up four to five basis points, and the thirty year back above the four point nine percent level.

09:40.348 --> 09:48.738 [SPEAKER_01]: The other index, however, down at forty basis points, gold down at eighty basis points, crude oil down as well down at one point eight percent.

09:49.780 --> 09:51.982 [SPEAKER_01]: Overall, very uneventful session.

09:52.042 --> 09:59.087 [SPEAKER_01]: The market didn't really do much despite a hotter retail sales report and one year inflation expectations.

09:59.147 --> 10:07.274 [SPEAKER_01]: Coming a bit above where was expected, as well as the repricing towards a slightly flatter Fed rate cut path.

10:08.034 --> 10:12.878 [SPEAKER_01]: President said this morning, he'll be setting a tariff on tariffs on steel and ship imports next week.

10:13.358 --> 10:17.322 [SPEAKER_01]: So certainly more news of that could drive markets looking ahead to next week.

10:18.610 --> 10:37.444 [SPEAKER_01]: On the bullish side, though, strong Q-two earnings session metrics, favorable earnings revision trends, pretty still elevated corporate margins overall, some mitigation measures on the tariff side and a strong retail impulse as well as continued corporate buybacks, really floating the market towards the higher levels that we've seen over the past couple months.

10:38.388 --> 10:41.330 [SPEAKER_01]: On the macro side, headline, july, retail sales.

10:41.930 --> 10:48.673 [SPEAKER_01]: Fifty basis points, month over month in line with the consensus, June revised up, thirty basis points to point nine percent.

10:49.754 --> 10:59.759 [SPEAKER_01]: August Michigan Consumer sentiment fell to fifty eight point six, a bit weaker than the consensus of sixty two and the lowest levels since May's post liberation day print.

11:00.220 --> 11:06.043 [SPEAKER_01]: On the inflation side, those expectations up four, forty basis points to four point nine percent on the one year.

11:06.623 --> 11:15.830 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, five and ten year expectations of fifty basis points through three point nine percent, certainly not something that bolstered the bolsters the case for a quick cutting path for the Fed.

11:15.850 --> 11:20.713 [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of other numbers, July industrial production posted a surprise contraction.

11:21.574 --> 11:31.140 [SPEAKER_01]: And overall, early economists read noted that suggests foreign exporters, not eating tariffs, particularly given the reading calculated before tariffs had been applied.

11:31.220 --> 11:35.764 [SPEAKER_01]: So more evidence, tariff effects coming into play there.

11:36.444 --> 11:41.067 [SPEAKER_01]: On the Fed side not much, Chicago's goals be said the Fed doesn't need to hold rates forever.

11:41.387 --> 11:47.231 [SPEAKER_01]: This still needs another month of inflation data to see if the economy is still on that golden path, if you will.

11:47.651 --> 11:59.038 [SPEAKER_01]: And looking ahead to next week, Friday will bring a speech from the Fed chair himself, Jerome Powell, market hoping to see a bit of a dovish turn as we await potential cuts in September.

12:00.782 --> 12:09.192 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's take a look at our first question of the day from the Invest talk, a YouTube comment section, question bank.

12:10.033 --> 12:13.458 [SPEAKER_01]: And this one is a three part, or it says, I have questions on two of your business.

12:13.598 --> 12:15.560 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, two part two of your businesses.

12:16.661 --> 12:19.745 [SPEAKER_01]: One is GRMN, since they had outstanding earnings last week.

12:19.826 --> 12:24.712 [SPEAKER_01]: The second one is bros, Dutch bros, as they are growing and expanding from what I see.

12:25.012 --> 12:27.395 [SPEAKER_01]: If I'm allowed to third though, we tend to only look at one.

12:27.776 --> 12:34.324 [SPEAKER_01]: I would love to know your thoughts on O and O and as well as they are growing and the potential is high.

12:35.575 --> 12:36.416 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's take a look at the first.

12:36.536 --> 12:37.016 [SPEAKER_01]: You gave me three.

12:37.036 --> 12:37.716 [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to look at two.

12:38.217 --> 12:39.938 [SPEAKER_01]: First one is Garmin Limited.

12:39.978 --> 12:47.442 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a provide of GPS enabled hardware and software across fitness, outdoor, automotive, aviation, and Marines.

12:47.722 --> 12:53.826 [SPEAKER_01]: Best known for those wearable tech products, your Garmin watches, people love to wear them on runs.

12:53.906 --> 12:54.627 [SPEAKER_01]: Very accurate.

12:54.867 --> 12:56.268 [SPEAKER_01]: They have golf products as well.

12:56.708 --> 12:59.430 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, there is Dutch Bros, ticker BROS.

13:00.270 --> 13:05.674 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a high-growth US operator and franchiser of drive-through beverages.

13:05.694 --> 13:07.836 [SPEAKER_01]: It's founded in the nineties.

13:07.996 --> 13:15.021 [SPEAKER_01]: Recently, they earned a spot on a business deal with breakout stocks with a fifty five point eight percent average earnings growth.

13:15.402 --> 13:17.703 [SPEAKER_01]: Quick story on Dutch Bros for you, actually.

13:17.723 --> 13:20.505 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, in the middle of nowhere in California.

13:20.986 --> 13:24.008 [SPEAKER_01]: And I saw this huge line longer than any in and out line.

13:24.028 --> 13:27.050 [SPEAKER_01]: And if all any of you guys have been to and in and out, you know what I'm talking about.

13:27.491 --> 13:28.571 [SPEAKER_01]: Line stretches.

13:29.372 --> 13:31.080 [SPEAKER_01]: crazy crazy crazy and

13:33.449 --> 13:34.890 [SPEAKER_01]: I was thinking to myself, what is this?

13:35.271 --> 13:39.394 [SPEAKER_01]: Low and behold, it was a coffee joint that was that busy at four in the afternoon.

13:39.835 --> 13:43.738 [SPEAKER_01]: So certainly the growth I can see it anecdotally first hand.

13:44.139 --> 13:45.260 [SPEAKER_01]: These are two very different names, right?

13:45.400 --> 13:49.303 [SPEAKER_01]: One is a more mature GPS tech fitness company.

13:49.703 --> 13:51.765 [SPEAKER_01]: The other Dutch pros egg drive through coffee chain.

13:51.865 --> 13:54.988 [SPEAKER_01]: One is like I said, a mature presence in multiple sectors.

13:55.348 --> 13:57.370 [SPEAKER_01]: The other is still quickly growing.

13:57.430 --> 13:58.711 [SPEAKER_01]: So let's look at Dutch pros first.

13:59.372 --> 14:03.654 [SPEAKER_01]: DETFRO's having, like I said, phenomenal growth, forty percent sales growth year over year.

14:04.255 --> 14:05.556 [SPEAKER_01]: And growth really didn't slow much.

14:05.576 --> 14:08.617 [SPEAKER_01]: It's supposed to be one point six billion from one point three billion.

14:08.957 --> 14:16.662 [SPEAKER_01]: This previous year margins, they were negative in the pandemic, but positive nine point four percent even margin, six point three percent net margin here.

14:17.182 --> 14:17.742 [SPEAKER_01]: One issue though.

14:18.303 --> 14:19.303 [SPEAKER_01]: Crazy expensive.

14:19.663 --> 14:25.467 [SPEAKER_01]: Great growth, but worth seventy eight times for looking earnings, twenty nine point four times price to cash flow.

14:26.267 --> 14:27.067 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know about that.

14:27.247 --> 14:30.829 [SPEAKER_01]: It's up ninety four point eight nine percent over the past fifty two weeks.

14:31.389 --> 14:35.391 [SPEAKER_01]: A little bit too expensive for a coffee company in my book.

14:35.411 --> 14:37.532 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a quick look at Garmin.

14:37.552 --> 14:40.293 [SPEAKER_01]: See if this is at a more reasonable valuation here.

14:40.373 --> 14:44.655 [SPEAKER_01]: In Garmin, a mature company up thirty six percent in the past fifty two weeks.

14:45.035 --> 14:49.457 [SPEAKER_01]: Tringet twenty seven point seven times for looking at his thirty four times cash flow.

14:49.977 --> 14:52.018 [SPEAKER_01]: Five point six times price to book value.

14:53.098 --> 14:56.720 [SPEAKER_01]: Also solid growth from mature company, ten percent on an annualized basis.

14:57.260 --> 15:00.342 [SPEAKER_01]: Group more than ten percent are projected to grow more than ten percent this year.

15:01.042 --> 15:03.824 [SPEAKER_01]: About seven hundred million on six point two billion in revenue.

15:03.864 --> 15:06.285 [SPEAKER_01]: My math tells me more than ten percent at the same time margins.

15:06.766 --> 15:09.707 [SPEAKER_01]: Twenty two point four percent net margin.

15:10.167 --> 15:12.249 [SPEAKER_01]: Return on equity eighteen point two percent.

15:12.489 --> 15:15.110 [SPEAKER_01]: Looks a lot more solid in my opinion.

15:15.130 --> 15:17.752 [SPEAKER_01]: It also pays a decent dividend one point five percent.

15:18.412 --> 15:24.574 [SPEAKER_01]: Consensus tells you it's a little expensive here, though, and given the recent run-up, I think that makes a little bit of sense.

15:25.414 --> 15:25.855 [SPEAKER_01]: It's strong.

15:26.095 --> 15:31.277 [SPEAKER_01]: From a relative perspective, it is strong compared to the overall market.

15:31.597 --> 15:34.057 [SPEAKER_01]: Been on quite a tear over the past five, six months.

15:34.458 --> 15:42.320 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm more likely to keep this on my watch list, because it looks like it's more right for a pullback than can give you a good entry at a price far more reasonable than what we're seeing with Dutch Bros.

15:42.680 --> 15:46.662 [SPEAKER_01]: By the way, people tend to pull back on to go coffee in times of economic stress.

15:47.852 --> 15:49.493 [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to the call side, we couldn't get to offering.

15:49.834 --> 15:50.174 [SPEAKER_01]: We're at it.

15:50.194 --> 15:51.535 [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for watching.

15:51.555 --> 15:54.818 [SPEAKER_01]: But in NewBreaks.com, I mean, focus point more answers to your questions.

15:54.838 --> 15:58.000 [SPEAKER_01]: Why don't you give me a call at eight eight eight and ninety nine chart?

16:03.144 --> 16:04.826 [SPEAKER_05]: Your questions are free.

16:05.246 --> 16:07.208 [SPEAKER_05]: The answers are unbiased.

16:07.668 --> 16:09.209 [SPEAKER_05]: Luke Guerrero is here now.

16:09.469 --> 16:11.991 [SPEAKER_05]: Ready to take your calls live.

16:12.492 --> 16:13.312 [SPEAKER_05]: Invest talk.

16:13.693 --> 16:16.195 [SPEAKER_05]: Eight eight eight ninety nine chart.

16:19.260 --> 16:29.465 [SPEAKER_01]: My main focus point today is about an overarching theme that has driven market economic activity this year and is likely to continue to do so in the future.

16:30.006 --> 16:36.849 [SPEAKER_01]: And that is about a shift towards strategic interdependence as the global economy is being rewired.

16:37.570 --> 16:42.913 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, Alice Goldman Sachs took a look at this and came away with key insights.

16:43.933 --> 16:59.802 [SPEAKER_01]: And it all stacks upon the idea that the US trying to trade tensions, having eased recently, has still fundamentally shifted away from full coupling and more towards security, resilience, and geopolitical considerations.

17:00.843 --> 17:09.688 [SPEAKER_01]: Globalization process, right, cost efficiency is still an important part of it, but cost efficiency alone no longer is driving trade.

17:10.721 --> 17:16.166 [SPEAKER_01]: Natural security, cyber risk, supply chain flexibility, especially in the wake of the pandemic.

17:17.207 --> 17:22.012 [SPEAKER_01]: Now have influence on decision-making from not just governments but from firms as well.

17:22.772 --> 17:25.174 [SPEAKER_01]: US investment in China is more selective.

17:26.117 --> 17:32.258 [SPEAKER_01]: It is not stopping right originally when we saw the crazy tariff numbers over a hundred percent tariff numbers.

17:32.819 --> 17:33.759 [SPEAKER_01]: The worry was okay.

17:33.779 --> 17:36.359 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, you're trying to decouple economies very quickly.

17:36.740 --> 17:40.220 [SPEAKER_01]: And what effect is that going to have on people around the world?

17:40.940 --> 17:46.162 [SPEAKER_01]: But as we've seen over the past couple months, now investment is just now more selective right?

17:46.202 --> 17:55.364 [SPEAKER_01]: It's moved a bit away towards strategic interdependence rather than full decoupling firms are prioritizing supply chain resilience.

17:56.064 --> 18:00.547 [SPEAKER_01]: Rather than cost efficiency, they're accepting a bit of higher expenses for this diversification.

18:00.567 --> 18:06.691 [SPEAKER_01]: They're accepting holding deeper inventories on their books for this supply chain diversification.

18:06.732 --> 18:13.676 [SPEAKER_01]: They're okay with less efficiency to ensure what we would call supply security.

18:14.737 --> 18:17.338 [SPEAKER_01]: Interestingly enough, China's share of imports of U.S.

18:17.378 --> 18:22.960 [SPEAKER_01]: imports fell from twenty two percent to thirteen point four percent from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty four.

18:23.520 --> 18:31.503 [SPEAKER_01]: But what about our more closely tied allies Vietnam their share doubled Mexico became the top U.S.

18:31.703 --> 18:33.804 [SPEAKER_01]: trading partner in that time.

18:34.424 --> 18:38.586 [SPEAKER_01]: And so what you're seeing overall is this trend that as investors, we should pay attention to.

18:39.146 --> 18:42.228 [SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing overall supply chains are diversifying.

18:42.268 --> 18:50.232 [SPEAKER_01]: They're moving more towards multi-note networks often involving Chinese partners, but not solely reliant on them.

18:51.372 --> 18:56.375 [SPEAKER_01]: They are taking Chinese goods and moving them into new markets to reduce this disruption risk.

18:57.015 --> 19:01.137 [SPEAKER_01]: They're taking goods from one country and putting them in factories and another

19:02.407 --> 19:05.108 [SPEAKER_01]: to deal with potential disruption risk.

19:06.149 --> 19:24.517 [SPEAKER_01]: And so because of that, you're seeing firms in China a little bit, some ways suffer right FDI into China is down over ninety percent in four years, hitting a thirty year look, especially in sensitive tech sectors, these foreign direct imports as firms adopt the China for China strategies.

19:26.638 --> 19:29.519 [SPEAKER_01]: And the same time, Chinese outbound investments in the United States

19:30.437 --> 19:35.961 [SPEAKER_01]: down, we'll let you guess the number, ninety five percent since twenty sixteen.

19:36.901 --> 19:43.165 [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of that capital is not just staying in China, it's being redirected towards Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America.

19:45.187 --> 19:51.551 [SPEAKER_01]: A country that China is trying to invest dramatically in other nations to gain influence.

19:53.632 --> 19:59.236 [SPEAKER_01]: And so for companies that if historically said this is our supply chain, this is our area,

20:00.113 --> 20:02.897 [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to take on the risk of being in this country.

20:04.159 --> 20:13.111 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, now you're navigating even more complex risks, regulatory uncertainty, data localization, national security reviews in some cases, capital controls.

20:14.970 --> 20:34.432 [SPEAKER_01]: And so as we look towards the types of manufacturing firms and industrial firms, tech firms, that we even as investors want to invest in, it's important to note that success in this era of interdependence depends on more granular market views, more versatility, and more strategic long-term adaptation.

20:35.622 --> 20:40.865 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's see if we can tackle another caller question from our YouTube comment section.

20:40.885 --> 20:41.946 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is it.

20:42.026 --> 20:44.308 [SPEAKER_01]: Good time to buy some stocks.

20:45.477 --> 20:51.898 [SPEAKER_01]: Question says, I've been keeping an eye on what's going on in the market's lately and it feels like we've got a few cross currents to watch.

20:52.479 --> 20:57.980 [SPEAKER_01]: The latest CPI numbers show headline inflation cooling, which makes a Fred Fedrate cut more likely.

20:58.300 --> 21:02.221 [SPEAKER_01]: But core inflation is still hanging around, so the Fed might not get too dovish just yet.

21:02.801 --> 21:10.883 [SPEAKER_01]: I guess my question is that since we see some sort of stability now compared to last few months, is it a good time to buy some stocks or what industries would you suggest?

21:11.763 --> 21:15.826 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I wouldn't agree with the intention that inflation is cool.

21:16.166 --> 21:19.929 [SPEAKER_01]: When you look at a pure CPI number, you have a lot of lag defects here.

21:21.570 --> 21:27.475 [SPEAKER_01]: One big part of it is the twelve-month look back into real estate rentals housing.

21:28.015 --> 21:34.139 [SPEAKER_01]: And so as you move towards what was a historically expensive time and the housing market is starting to break a little bit, as the

21:35.080 --> 21:43.966 [SPEAKER_01]: months in the past drop-off, and these cheaper months come in, it understandably from a calculation perspective, eases that top end number.

21:44.006 --> 21:51.431 [SPEAKER_01]: That's part of the divergence between when you actually get deep look-ins in a more granular way, and you see certain areas where inflation is picking back up.

21:52.051 --> 21:57.875 [SPEAKER_01]: And so I wouldn't agree with the idea that, well, now inflation is cooling, therefore the Fed rate path is certain.

21:58.376 --> 22:03.039 [SPEAKER_01]: Now the market seems to think in September it is certain, but beyond that, who really knows?

22:04.933 --> 22:07.495 [SPEAKER_01]: As inflation is not fully gone, right?

22:07.535 --> 22:12.058 [SPEAKER_01]: We do see it in producers' prices and all sorts of figures besides CPI.

22:12.258 --> 22:15.201 [SPEAKER_01]: We're also now worried a little bit about a mid labor market.

22:15.841 --> 22:17.942 [SPEAKER_01]: But here's what I would say is now good time to buy stocks.

22:18.323 --> 22:27.489 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're investment horizon is long enough, you're not going to really think about if you entered that stock here or if you entered it five years, five percent lower, twenty years from now.

22:27.710 --> 22:33.594 [SPEAKER_01]: And so if you're young, if you don't need the money, if you have a long time horizon, it's always a good time to buy stocks.

22:35.255 --> 22:46.414 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lou Guerrera, and we're ready to talk, take more of your questions, answer more of your questions, but you gotta give me a call at eight, eight, and ninety-nine.

22:59.079 --> 23:01.841 [SPEAKER_05]: Have you heard about the new Invest Talk store?

23:02.402 --> 23:06.064 [SPEAKER_05]: That's right, you'll find great merch for the savvy investor.

23:06.565 --> 23:11.068 [SPEAKER_05]: It's all there for you now at InvestTalkStore.com.

23:11.769 --> 23:17.012 [SPEAKER_05]: Luke Guerrero is here now, taking your finance and investment questions live.

23:17.613 --> 23:21.516 [SPEAKER_05]: Call Invest Talk, eight, eight, eight, ninety, nine, chart.

23:23.433 --> 23:25.413 [SPEAKER_01]: On the next investor talk, we'll look into this topic.

23:25.773 --> 23:29.314 [SPEAKER_01]: Why investors who trade more often tend to make less?

23:29.954 --> 23:39.076 [SPEAKER_01]: Warren Buffett is warned that frequent trading often leads to lower returns, and instead he advocates for the patient, long-term approach of holding quality companies.

23:39.836 --> 23:46.258 [SPEAKER_01]: That's Monday, but right now we're ready to take a live call from Sammy from San Francisco, listening on an AM-Twelve-Twenty.

23:46.958 --> 23:47.678 [SPEAKER_01]: How could he help me, Sammy?

23:47.698 --> 23:52.899 [SPEAKER_07]: Hi, thank you for thinking my call and I just show all of his

23:54.365 --> 23:59.488 [SPEAKER_07]: The question I have is, for the Adobe company, I hold some stock I purchased several years ago.

24:00.308 --> 24:08.372 [SPEAKER_07]: It went up, you know, a recent amount, but then it's been, you know, pretty stagnant recently.

24:09.913 --> 24:12.314 [SPEAKER_07]: And with the AI and everything, what do you think?

24:12.494 --> 24:20.418 [SPEAKER_07]: Should I dump this stock and just move on to a different company or hold on, maybe some more gains to be had there.

24:20.658 --> 24:21.118 [SPEAKER_07]: What's your view?

24:22.340 --> 24:33.089 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so for those of you who do not know, Adobe is a software company, global technology company, primarily for digital marketing and media solutions.

24:33.789 --> 24:42.877 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, this company high profile wise did pass on an acquisition of a company Figma that recently went public to a massive multi-billion dollar valuation.

24:43.557 --> 24:51.364 [SPEAKER_01]: And the thinking was, okay, if this IPO does well, maybe Adobe's stock will respond positively

24:51.904 --> 24:54.386 [SPEAKER_01]: as well, right, if valuations are higher, maybe they'll do well.

24:54.406 --> 25:00.850 [SPEAKER_01]: So with the past five years, it's about, oh, with the past five days, that is, it's about three point seven, eight percent.

25:01.371 --> 25:07.395 [SPEAKER_01]: But still, over the past three months, it's down twelve point three, two percent, down twenty point two percent year to date.

25:08.436 --> 25:11.918 [SPEAKER_01]: One of the reasons why is in spite of, you know, pretty strong fundamentals.

25:11.938 --> 25:16.942 [SPEAKER_01]: They did beat expectations on adjusted EPS and raised full year guidance.

25:17.462 --> 25:19.384 [SPEAKER_01]: Most investors are pretty cautious.

25:20.397 --> 25:36.442 [SPEAKER_01]: Because on twofold, one is their AI monetization hasn't been going as well as they had hoped the timeline is pushed out pretty far as all of these companies are competing to monetize AI within their systems and also competitive pressures.

25:36.962 --> 25:39.663 [SPEAKER_01]: If you think about what Adobe is, photo editing,

25:40.363 --> 25:42.525 [SPEAKER_01]: photo creation, marketing.

25:43.025 --> 25:50.830 [SPEAKER_01]: These are things that are easily eaten away in general by these large language models, and so you've seen downgrades of the past three months.

25:51.351 --> 25:59.976 [SPEAKER_01]: From various readings agencies, really focusing on the AI-related risks.

26:00.897 --> 26:07.519 [SPEAKER_01]: But there's also been a pretty broad base decline over the past six months, investor sentiment industry sentiment has kind of diverged.

26:08.319 --> 26:16.582 [SPEAKER_01]: And this has been a area of the market that's been left behind as a lot of other tech companies have been dragged up within the AI secular growth.

26:17.042 --> 26:18.282 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, there are positives, right?

26:18.382 --> 26:21.083 [SPEAKER_01]: Profitability is still pretty solid for this name.

26:21.863 --> 26:26.387 [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, increasing up from twenty five point eight percent in margin to thirty seven point five percent.

26:26.647 --> 26:29.990 [SPEAKER_01]: So it's rejected to be this year growth hasn't completely dried up.

26:30.330 --> 26:33.293 [SPEAKER_01]: Their average over the past five years is about fourteen point one percent.

26:33.693 --> 26:40.559 [SPEAKER_01]: This year it's roughly about ten percent just under ten percent is what their projected to grow in terms of revenue this year.

26:40.859 --> 26:50.307 [SPEAKER_01]: But all this has led to a forelooking price earnings sitting at about their five year low price to book still within their near their average their price to cash flow as well.

26:50.727 --> 26:51.968 [SPEAKER_01]: near that five-year low.

26:53.628 --> 26:55.869 [SPEAKER_01]: Picasso is improving their buying back shares.

26:56.310 --> 26:57.490 [SPEAKER_01]: This is a difficult one, right?

26:57.530 --> 27:01.832 [SPEAKER_01]: Because what we do know is that companies that underperform tend to continue to underperform.

27:02.252 --> 27:06.274 [SPEAKER_01]: And looking from a technical perspective, this is a clear downtrend that has not been broken.

27:06.934 --> 27:14.718 [SPEAKER_01]: I think that investors who are moving towards the AI theme, want companies that are projecting monetization closer.

27:15.358 --> 27:31.001 [SPEAKER_01]: And so although I do think that Adobe may have a long-term benefit here with some strategic acquisitions, and like I said, some of that monetization effort that they've been doing, I just don't really see a near-term catalyst that can propel this significantly higher in a sustainable way.

27:31.441 --> 27:34.122 [SPEAKER_01]: And so I don't see any problem if you wanted to move on here.

27:34.642 --> 27:42.904 [SPEAKER_01]: Certainly, if you see a little bit of a pump from here, a little bit of a rally from here, which it may be on at the moment, back up above three, fifty,

27:44.124 --> 27:48.927 [SPEAKER_01]: for the first time in a couple weeks, it might be a good time to start to trim and start to look elsewhere.

27:49.787 --> 27:52.849 [SPEAKER_01]: That is Adobe, ticker ADBE.

27:53.369 --> 27:59.753 [SPEAKER_01]: Alright, it is a Friday so I want to briefly mention the newest KPP Premium newsletter which we will be distributed tomorrow.

28:01.329 --> 28:09.413 [SPEAKER_01]: In the KPP Insights section, we mentioned an update on the current market conditions.

28:10.114 --> 28:16.117 [SPEAKER_01]: In the portfolio management section, we touch on the differences between a trust and a will.

28:17.078 --> 28:21.680 [SPEAKER_01]: And in the stocks section, we mentioned two companies, one, a South Korean telecom operator.

28:22.300 --> 28:26.503 [SPEAKER_01]: And the other, a company that provides a funeral and a cemetery services.

28:27.588 --> 28:34.693 [SPEAKER_01]: If this sounds interesting to you, if you're interested in any of this at all whatsoever, you can head over to investtalk.com and subscribe.

28:35.194 --> 28:38.156 [SPEAKER_01]: The newsletter will come to your inbox on Saturday after news.

28:38.997 --> 28:44.281 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's talk a little bit about something we haven't discussed ever, and that's tariffs.

28:45.161 --> 28:54.549 [SPEAKER_01]: And economists expected, I would say very high effects very quickly from tariffs, and that they would fuel inflation, but the impact is been smaller.

28:55.289 --> 29:01.372 [SPEAKER_01]: Certainly smaller than feared, partly because the effective tariff rates are far lower than those headline figures.

29:02.032 --> 29:03.012 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we'll believe they would be.

29:03.553 --> 29:15.678 [SPEAKER_01]: Bartley's research found that the weighted average tariff rate in May was nine percent, below the twelve percent based on the White House announcement, due to duty free goods and reduced imports from high tariff countries like China.

29:16.755 --> 29:18.316 [SPEAKER_01]: About fifty-two percent of U.S.

29:18.356 --> 29:32.520 [SPEAKER_01]: imports in June, we're tear free fifty-two percent we're tear free with exemptions for pharmaceuticals, for certain electronics, for semi-conductors, and many goods from two religious trading partners, through the North and South, Canada, and Mexico.

29:32.540 --> 29:36.862 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's because importers have been shifting sourcing.

29:36.922 --> 29:39.323 [SPEAKER_01]: We talked about that a little bit in our main focus point about

29:40.959 --> 29:43.925 [SPEAKER_01]: risks, geopolitical risks, regulatory risks.

29:44.706 --> 29:50.496 [SPEAKER_01]: And so with an announcement of what tariffs are going to be, importers shifted sourcing to already existing.

29:52.436 --> 29:59.143 [SPEAKER_01]: Uh, uh, sources in those lower tariff countries or domestic producers further reducing the average rates actually paid.

29:59.684 --> 30:08.352 [SPEAKER_01]: If you recall, there was a headline story about Apple making iPhones in India, but that was kind of misleading because Apple was already making iPhones in India.

30:08.913 --> 30:15.539 [SPEAKER_01]: And what the story was really getting at is that they would just use that supply as their US iPhones.

30:16.380 --> 30:22.524 [SPEAKER_01]: And so not much is being shifted in terms of opening of factories, they're kind of just moving around to where things would be cheaper to import.

30:23.885 --> 30:27.887 [SPEAKER_01]: Now from January to June, Terra for revenue told at fifty-eight point five billion.

30:28.348 --> 30:31.430 [SPEAKER_01]: While overall inflation, it was far below worst case forecasts.

30:32.440 --> 30:37.623 [SPEAKER_01]: Though imported goods, some imported goods like furniture, did see prices increase.

30:38.523 --> 30:42.806 [SPEAKER_01]: Many companies, though, one of the reasons why prices haven't gone up as much.

30:43.286 --> 30:44.567 [SPEAKER_01]: Many companies frontload an imports.

30:44.987 --> 30:54.633 [SPEAKER_01]: The massive surge in imports in Q-One in March ahead of these tariff announcements led to reduced imports later.

30:55.253 --> 30:58.936 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, that doesn't mean that this is where the effective chairfraits are going to stay, right?

30:59.056 --> 31:02.319 [SPEAKER_01]: Inventories will deplete, new tariffs may be put in place.

31:02.659 --> 31:07.743 [SPEAKER_01]: And so Barclays projects that the effective chairfrait will move closer to fifteen percent.

31:08.524 --> 31:16.130 [SPEAKER_01]: As these exemptions close, as new levels are implemented, a hundred percent on semi-conductors, possibly two hundred fifty percent on pharmaceuticals.

31:17.091 --> 31:19.473 [SPEAKER_01]: And there are other estimates that are higher budget Yale lab.

31:19.933 --> 31:24.337 [SPEAKER_01]: Current effective rate is at eighteen point six percent still down from May's twenty one point nine.

31:25.849 --> 31:26.649 [SPEAKER_01]: But here's the thing, right?

31:26.789 --> 31:34.792 [SPEAKER_01]: Firms are increasingly preparing to pass tariffs on the consumers after delaying price hikes while these rates remained uncertain.

31:35.872 --> 31:49.256 [SPEAKER_01]: And because of that price pressures could build in the coming months as inventory buffer shrink, as exemptions expire, and as companies start to implement price increases that will affect many products from our daily lives.

31:51.377 --> 31:53.698 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's drop a fresh collar question now.

31:54.236 --> 31:57.039 [SPEAKER_02]: Hey, gentlemen, this is Jeff in East Tennessee.

31:57.299 --> 31:59.000 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm looking at very corporation.

31:59.080 --> 32:04.125 [SPEAKER_02]: B. R. Y. Looks like it's pretty affordable right now for me to get your thoughts on it.

32:04.285 --> 32:04.606 [SPEAKER_02]: Thank you.

32:05.046 --> 32:10.071 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's pull up B. R. Y. Which is very corporation.

32:11.138 --> 32:23.587 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a small cap name, looks to be an upstream energy company, so they focus on on shore and long-lived oil and gas reserves in both California and Utah.

32:24.368 --> 32:28.351 [SPEAKER_01]: That eighty-three percent of its revenue comes from its exploration and production.

32:28.651 --> 32:31.794 [SPEAKER_01]: About sixteen point six percent comes from the well servicing.

32:33.497 --> 32:40.821 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what the opposite of a tear is, but whatever that is, it's performance year to date down thirty one point two three percent.

32:41.401 --> 32:43.762 [SPEAKER_01]: Underperforming its industry drastically.

32:44.503 --> 32:48.605 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll be going back to twenty twenty two with a fifty eight point eight percent under performance in twenty twenty two.

32:49.165 --> 32:52.987 [SPEAKER_01]: Then nine percent than thirty seven point two percent than twenty four point four percent.

32:53.307 --> 32:55.028 [SPEAKER_01]: It has not had a positive year.

32:55.929 --> 32:58.470 [SPEAKER_01]: Since twenty twenty two, we're had a fourteen.

32:58.890 --> 33:01.432 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I'm sorry, it actually has a positive year since twenty twenty one.

33:02.408 --> 33:03.909 [SPEAKER_01]: when it had a dramatic price increase.

33:04.649 --> 33:18.814 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, taking a look at revenue, as you'd expect with this much of a loss in price over the past four years, that top revenue in, uh, twenty twenty two, one billion in revenue.

33:18.834 --> 33:21.355 [SPEAKER_01]: That's steadily falling to eight sixty three.

33:21.395 --> 33:23.896 [SPEAKER_01]: That'll little bit up to nine hundred and seventeen million projected.

33:23.916 --> 33:26.217 [SPEAKER_01]: You got six hundred and seventy seven million this year.

33:26.837 --> 33:27.597 [SPEAKER_01]: And they're losing money.

33:29.078 --> 33:29.638 [SPEAKER_01]: So with this,

33:31.193 --> 33:35.812 [SPEAKER_01]: Price the book since about point three the low of its five years.

33:37.345 --> 33:40.946 [SPEAKER_01]: And earnings have well not looked too great either.

33:41.646 --> 33:47.128 [SPEAKER_01]: Overall, I think this is a situation where yes, the company is not doing particularly well because the underlying commodity.

33:47.788 --> 33:58.830 [SPEAKER_01]: But I think there are better opportunities out there that aren't starting to head towards one dollar a share who actually have revenue growth and whose margins aren't set to be negative this year.

33:59.311 --> 34:04.552 [SPEAKER_01]: That is a very corporation, very small company, two hundred and forty million dollar market cap.

34:04.932 --> 34:08.133 [SPEAKER_01]: Neary MicroCapt territory, ticker BRY and afterpass.

34:09.114 --> 34:16.316 [SPEAKER_01]: Another thing we'd like to do on Fridays is a quick rundown of key benchmark numbers, so let me hit you with that list right now.

34:17.277 --> 34:21.578 [SPEAKER_01]: The two treasure yield was at three point seven five seven percent today.

34:22.159 --> 34:26.260 [SPEAKER_01]: Last week that number was three point seven six hundred and eighty nine weeks ago.

34:26.280 --> 34:28.161 [SPEAKER_01]: I've just about three and a half years.

34:28.361 --> 34:30.502 [SPEAKER_01]: That number was point six four percent.

34:31.447 --> 34:34.508 [SPEAKER_01]: The ten year yield was at four point three to six percent today.

34:35.029 --> 34:46.574 [SPEAKER_01]: Last week that number was a bit lower at four point two eight seven fifty three weeks back that number was at three point nine to one and three and a half years ago that number was one point seven six two.

34:47.614 --> 34:54.117 [SPEAKER_01]: Gold was priced at thirty three thirty six per ounce that is a fifty eight dollar decrease compared with last week.

34:54.958 --> 34:55.618 [SPEAKER_01]: Two weeks back.

34:56.955 --> 35:04.638 [SPEAKER_01]: That number is very inaccurate because two weeks back it was not nineteen thirty five, but a hundred and eighty one weeks ago that number was eighteen o six.

35:05.719 --> 35:08.720 [SPEAKER_01]: Silver today was priced at thirty seven ninety nine per ounce.

35:09.240 --> 35:12.121 [SPEAKER_01]: That is a due crease of thirty four cents compared to the last week.

35:12.921 --> 35:18.704 [SPEAKER_01]: seventy nine weeks ago that number was twenty two eighty and looking back at hundred and seventy three weeks silver was twenty three ninety four.

35:19.924 --> 35:23.426 [SPEAKER_01]: Oil was selling for sixty two dollars and ninety three cents per barrel today.

35:23.927 --> 35:26.688 [SPEAKER_01]: That is an eighty cent decrease compared to last week.

35:27.989 --> 35:36.515 [SPEAKER_01]: Forty seven weeks ago that number was sixty seven seventy nine eighty nine weeks back that number was seventy four thirty and a hundred and eighty nine weeks ago that number was sixty six sixty two.

35:37.874 --> 35:44.038 [SPEAKER_01]: The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is three dollars and fifteen cents per gallon, same as the last two weeks.

35:44.899 --> 35:50.223 [SPEAKER_01]: Hundred and fifteen weeks ago it was a three fifty six and a hundred and sixty three weeks back then it was four twenty five.

35:51.003 --> 35:55.587 [SPEAKER_01]: If we go all the way back three and a half years, a gallon of regular gas cost three fifty set.

35:56.429 --> 36:19.875 [SPEAKER_01]: California gas was averaging four dollars and forty nine cents per gallon same numbers last week ninety three weeks ago that number was five thirty two hundred sixty nine weeks back those five eighty seven for comparison in Minnesota were my best friend is right now enjoying the mall of America gas is averaging two dollars and ninety five cents per gallon today that is one dollar and fifty four cents less than gas in California.

36:21.636 --> 36:25.337 [SPEAKER_01]: Already I think we can fit in another color question so let's tackle it now.

36:26.025 --> 36:26.945 [SPEAKER_00]: Hi, my name is Thomas.

36:27.005 --> 36:29.307 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm calling from the Santa Cruz, California.

36:29.327 --> 36:35.009 [SPEAKER_00]: I've been listening to the show for the last three or four years and really love what you guys do on the show.

36:35.489 --> 36:37.330 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm calling asking about eBay.

36:37.730 --> 36:42.953 [SPEAKER_00]: What is a good price to be openly investing into eBay moving forward?

36:43.613 --> 36:44.414 [SPEAKER_00]: Tell me what you think.

36:44.634 --> 36:45.294 [SPEAKER_00]: I'll be listening.

36:45.814 --> 36:51.037 [SPEAKER_01]: Alrighty, eBay is a e-commerce company made famous in

36:52.888 --> 36:57.569 [SPEAKER_01]: the early two thousands when it started this online auction system.

36:58.529 --> 37:01.070 [SPEAKER_01]: Now they do a whole lot more than that.

37:01.450 --> 37:09.232 [SPEAKER_01]: But this online marketplace is still the bulk of their revenue about eighty four percent of their revenue comes from their online marketplace about eighteen percent comes from advertising.

37:09.912 --> 37:22.135 [SPEAKER_01]: The company is in a really well over the past year up eighty point three seven percent up sixty two point five percent year to date and relative strength has been pretty solid going back to mid twenty twenty two.

37:23.176 --> 37:24.160 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, sales growth.

37:25.123 --> 37:29.216 [SPEAKER_01]: Vitt's slow, but still growing into the same time margins fantastic.

37:30.142 --> 37:48.568 [SPEAKER_01]: In the high teens to mid-twenties, projected to be twenty three point four percent, this upcoming year, for looking price earnings to, it's only sitting about seventeen in spite of this massive run up over the past fifty two weeks, price to cash flow twenty one point seven, price to book a bit expensive, sitting at about nine point five.

37:49.049 --> 37:58.212 [SPEAKER_01]: Now the surge was on the back of earnings of an earnings beat, they delivered a strong Q two performance, adjusted EPS of one thirty seven, beat the estimates of one thirty.

37:59.052 --> 38:07.038 [SPEAKER_01]: For percentage basis, that's a pretty significant beat they beat on revenue as well, revenue of six percent year over year.

38:07.058 --> 38:19.528 [SPEAKER_01]: And so you had this continued technical breakout here and strong momentum up another two point two five percent today on the back of that makes it forty two point six three percent in the past three months.

38:19.568 --> 38:26.273 [SPEAKER_01]: It is the top performer or one of the top performers in the retail in a space that is increasingly moving towards the commerce.

38:26.873 --> 38:28.275 [SPEAKER_01]: We've actually been looking at this name.

38:29.286 --> 38:42.442 [SPEAKER_01]: And we discussed at the other day, in the office, and I think, themeatically, it fits with one of the drivers overall of the retail space and the improved Q-Tune Q-Tree guidance is certainly something that investors should like as well.

38:43.122 --> 38:44.624 [SPEAKER_01]: So for me, I think, you know, it's, it's

38:45.425 --> 38:47.245 [SPEAKER_01]: wide a bit of run over the past three months.

38:47.325 --> 38:54.947 [SPEAKER_01]: It is ripe for a bit of a technical pullback, especially because the next earnings upgrade, or rather the next earnings update is not set for October.

38:54.987 --> 38:58.628 [SPEAKER_01]: You have a lot of time where there shouldn't be a lot of catalyst moving things perhaps.

38:59.108 --> 39:01.508 [SPEAKER_01]: You have slowdown and retail sales.

39:01.868 --> 39:06.209 [SPEAKER_01]: You have consumers pulling back a little bit, could give you a ripe entry opportunity on eBay.

39:07.089 --> 39:08.230 [SPEAKER_01]: That is eBay, ticker.

39:09.010 --> 39:09.470 [SPEAKER_01]: You guessed it.

39:09.830 --> 39:10.330 [SPEAKER_01]: eBay, why?

39:11.802 --> 39:12.443 [SPEAKER_01]: This is Vestock.

39:12.523 --> 39:13.084 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Luke Guerrero.

39:13.124 --> 39:15.828 [SPEAKER_01]: We have one goal here to help you achieve your financial freedom.

39:16.369 --> 39:20.636 [SPEAKER_01]: Our work continues after our final breaks will get your questions in now at eighty-date ninety-nine chart.

39:21.097 --> 39:24.963 [SPEAKER_01]: And while we're on break, why don't you check out the Investock Store and InvestockStore.com.

39:36.313 --> 39:47.485 [SPEAKER_05]: twenty twenty five rolls on and you might have some fresh questions for Justin or Luke call in vest talk eight eight eight ninety nine chart.

39:48.486 --> 39:53.251 [SPEAKER_03]: I wanted to reach out about uh company called cardinal health ticker symbol c a edge.

39:53.712 --> 39:57.416 [SPEAKER_03]: I bought it a while back I'm up around a hundred percent right now and I was just wondering

39:57.823 --> 40:00.704 [SPEAKER_03]: You thought the company still looked good, so I want your input on it.

40:00.724 --> 40:04.025 [SPEAKER_03]: You think I should trim, you think I should sell, or just lend a ride.

40:04.505 --> 40:06.806 [SPEAKER_03]: I'd love to hear your answer, and I'll look forward to it on the show.

40:06.886 --> 40:07.226 [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.

40:08.147 --> 40:11.428 [SPEAKER_01]: Colonel Health is a healthcare services and products company.

40:12.468 --> 40:25.093 [SPEAKER_01]: They have medical devices, pharmaceutical devices, over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products, and they also manufacture source and distribute their own branded medical surgical and laboratory technology.

40:26.230 --> 40:31.994 [SPEAKER_01]: It is a fairly large company, though, not crazy large, about thirty-six billion dollar market cabinets.

40:32.394 --> 40:35.516 [SPEAKER_01]: Very little debt, about nine point three billion dollars in debt.

40:35.536 --> 40:38.698 [SPEAKER_01]: It pays a solid, one point three, six percent dividend yield.

40:39.198 --> 40:42.080 [SPEAKER_01]: And it's bought shares back consistently over the past five years.

40:42.120 --> 40:49.064 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, cash flow has moderated a bit, but still remained at a consistent level over the past three years.

40:49.905 --> 40:54.428 [SPEAKER_01]: The same time, profitability, been pretty stagnant.

40:55.400 --> 41:04.868 [SPEAKER_01]: And pretty low, ten basis points, four basis points, seven basis points, or sorry, ten basis points, forty basis points, and seventy basis points is where it's sad over the past three years.

41:05.329 --> 41:13.115 [SPEAKER_01]: For looking price to earnings, it ain't about fifteen point seven, so it seems to be in the middle of the range of where it's been over the past three years.

41:13.576 --> 41:20.242 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, in spite of the health care being beat up a bit over the past couple years, it's name's done pretty well.

41:21.388 --> 41:48.569 [SPEAKER_01]: Outperforming is industry by six point two percent this year up twenty six point five percent year to date up thirty point six four percent over the past fifty two weeks really benefited from it being a low volatility name and established name uh... that has had a bit of earnings upgrades and those upgrades and price target upgrades are really drove it higher over the past three months and again continuing to have a consistent dividend with low volatility

41:50.348 --> 41:51.969 [SPEAKER_01]: has made it a good name to invest in.

41:52.029 --> 41:54.030 [SPEAKER_01]: That being said, you're up a hundred percent on this name.

41:54.550 --> 41:59.532 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's always a good idea to start to take profits there, diversify into something that may be a bit undervalued.

41:59.552 --> 42:01.213 [SPEAKER_01]: This seems to be about a fully valued name here.

42:01.793 --> 42:03.214 [SPEAKER_01]: That is Cardinal Health, ticker, CH.

42:03.334 --> 42:06.655 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's talk housing.

42:07.855 --> 42:09.396 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, I've laid a Austin Miami.

42:09.896 --> 42:13.378 [SPEAKER_01]: Those were housing era or pandemic era boom towns.

42:14.423 --> 42:22.088 [SPEAKER_01]: Where you saw major gains with ultra-lower low mortgage rates in the wake of and just after the pandemic, but that's all starting to end.

42:22.708 --> 42:22.948 [SPEAKER_01]: U.S.

42:22.988 --> 42:25.650 [SPEAKER_01]: home prices have fallen in most cities in the past three months.

42:25.690 --> 42:31.213 [SPEAKER_01]: With the West and the South, hit the hardest and the North and the Midwest, being a bit more resilient.

42:32.014 --> 42:36.396 [SPEAKER_01]: High mortgage rates, seven percent are squeezing recent buyers, especially in Sunbelt cities.

42:36.817 --> 42:40.059 [SPEAKER_01]: Revalues have already dropped a bit too dramatically.

42:41.165 --> 42:47.929 [SPEAKER_01]: Internal migration to the Sunbell has slowed and stricter border policies may be reducing international arrivals.

42:49.550 --> 42:59.797 [SPEAKER_01]: And another thing you're seeing is, well, when debt was cheap, decent amount of construction, pandemic air construction is now hitting the market, adding supply just as demand weakens, and that hurts those cities.

42:59.857 --> 43:00.738 [SPEAKER_01]: It hurts the Austens.

43:00.798 --> 43:01.698 [SPEAKER_01]: It hurts the Miami's.

43:02.179 --> 43:03.940 [SPEAKER_01]: Then it lost their tech boom allure.

43:04.970 --> 43:07.212 [SPEAKER_01]: North East holiday towns are also struggling.

43:07.592 --> 43:10.996 [SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing price declines in Martha's Vineyard in coastal Maine and Nantucket.

43:11.916 --> 43:14.239 [SPEAKER_01]: And Florida is the weakest market out of all of them.

43:14.259 --> 43:24.168 [SPEAKER_01]: With prices down four percent year over year due to high insurance cost, fewer Canadian buyers and coastal costly post surf side safety rules.

43:26.057 --> 43:27.077 [SPEAKER_01]: That's the thing about housing, right?

43:27.097 --> 43:28.758 [SPEAKER_01]: It is highly sensitive to interest rates.

43:29.218 --> 43:36.339 [SPEAKER_01]: Making it a key economic indicator as tight fed policy slows consumption, slows investment, and slows job growth.

43:38.320 --> 43:51.503 [SPEAKER_01]: And with what we've been talking about with where we've seen inflation, with the strength of the labor market, it's possible that at least until next May when there's a new Fed chair and potentially beyond, that Fed rate cuts may be limited, tariff risks.

43:52.784 --> 44:00.547 [SPEAKER_01]: fueling inflation and AI-driven capital spending is already supporting economic growth in a way that the Fed doesn't really need to step in.

44:01.327 --> 44:09.170 [SPEAKER_01]: And so this is all to say that after a about a decade, about a decade that has dramatically favored homeowners.

44:10.551 --> 44:20.875 [SPEAKER_01]: The shift may finally be on, giving those aspiring home buyers that a time when renting is historically cheap relative to buying a better opening

44:21.832 --> 44:25.334 [SPEAKER_01]: But unfortunately, affordability challenges will still remain.

44:26.174 --> 44:29.016 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Luke Guerrero and this completes another Investock program.

44:29.736 --> 44:39.102 [SPEAKER_01]: Justin and I thank you for listening and encourage you to tell your friends and family members about our free podcast, Downloads, which you and they can get at iTunes Spotify if you feel like watching.

44:39.662 --> 44:44.105 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, you can look on YouTube at our YouTube channel search invest talk with two T's.

44:45.165 --> 44:57.494 [SPEAKER_01]: As always, if today's show made you think about your own financial situation, your taxes, your retirement, your investments, if you're saving enough for your kids, and you just want another head to check it all out for you.

44:58.314 --> 45:07.121 [SPEAKER_01]: Head over to investalk.com and click on the portfolio review button, Justin and I talked to listeners just like you each and every day, and honestly it's my favorite part of the job.

45:07.841 --> 45:09.823 [SPEAKER_01]: So, set a meeting, would love to chat.

45:10.894 --> 45:11.655 [SPEAKER_01]: Independent Thinking?

45:12.095 --> 45:12.795 [SPEAKER_01]: Share its success.

45:13.376 --> 45:14.196 [SPEAKER_01]: This is Invest Talk.

45:14.797 --> 45:15.417 [SPEAKER_04]: Enjoy your weekend.

45:15.938 --> 45:23.563 [SPEAKER_04]: Invest Talk is a trademark of KPP Financial because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program.

45:23.923 --> 45:28.106 [SPEAKER_04]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to that.

45:28.507 --> 45:31.769 [SPEAKER_04]: Specifically, nothing says she'll be taken to be investment advice.

45:32.169 --> 45:36.591 [SPEAKER_04]: or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.

45:36.931 --> 45:44.675 [SPEAKER_04]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review of perspectives before investing.

45:45.175 --> 45:53.038 [SPEAKER_04]: Invest talk is a copyrighted program of client, Pavles, and Peasley Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights.

45:53.419 --> 46:00.402 [SPEAKER_04]: For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors, call one eight hundred five five seven fifty four sixty one.

46:00.962 --> 46:01.764 [SPEAKER_04]: Thank you for listening.

46:02.044 --> 46:07.394 [SPEAKER_04]: And your comments and questions are welcome on our twenty four hour listener line at eight eight eight nine chart.