Hello everyone
and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always
Stan McCune Realtor right here in Greenville
and you can find all of my contact information
in the show notes
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for any of your real estate needs
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today we are going to be talking about
what happened in the month of July
I apologize that this is coming out late
it's just these stats that we don't get from GGAR
like right away
it takes a while for the
for the Greater Cleveland Association of Realtors
to get these to us and
and then sometimes it just doesn't work well
simply within
within my podcasting schedule in order to get these out
so
I I just got these just a few days ago
you guys are getting them
as quickly as I could get them to you
and I'm gonna
be doing this a little bit different than normal
rather than strictly focusing on month to month year
year to year
I'm going to be looking at these from the lens of
how are things tracking with regard to historical
trends right going all the way back to 2,013
and I'll tell you why I'm choosing 2,013
the market finally started to normalize in 2,013
after coming out of the the strange times of 2000
four through 2,012 2,004 through 2,012 of course
we know a bubble
in the real estate industry was growing
from 2004 to 2008
finally burst roughly 2008 time period
then we had the global financial crisis
and then we started to kind of come out of that
but we had something honestly
similar to what happened during Covid
which is that the government getting involved and
and dumping stimulus into the housing market
ended up causing the recovery to take longer
that's that's my personal opinion
these these things are debated obviously
so if you want other alternate opinions
you can find those out there
but my personal opinion is that we unnecessarily
dragged out the the worst of the recession of 2008
by introducing too much government stimulus
too much quantitative easing
and I think that
that is also what happened during Covid okay
I think it was too much
too much stimulus coming from too many places
and that has caused our economy to
to just kind of stall out and to
to turn into this weird
weird situation where some numbers are getting worse
but they're not getting worse so quickly that we can be
like well
we're going to recession and here's what we have to do
there's like no roadmap
for this and I'm recording this by the way
before the Fed does their little Jackson Hole
symposium that they do every year
so I don't know what's gonna come out of that
what the Federal Reserve and
and Jerome Powell is going to say
clearly there will be some
some very interesting things to come out of that
because again
some of our data we're getting all these
this economic data
and some of us coming in where it's looking like whoa
this is way better than we thought
and then some of us coming in whoa
this looks way worse than we thought
and nobody really knows how to interpret it
like it's it's a very confusing time
and a lot of that in my opinion
has to do with what the government did all that to say
what we can do is do kind of what a lot of people that
that analyze markets
do when particularly when you have a
a large set of data that's been charted out
and graphed out and just
it's a very simple way of analyzing trajectory
you just draw a straight line basically across the a
a you know
the a certain points of the graph every single year
and then that kind of tells you what the growth
trajectory or non growth trajectory roughly is
and I've done this for several of
of these graphics that I have for you guys and
and this is gonna be the thrust of what we talk about
so our new listings data
we're gonna start right there at the top
so oh so obviously this goes without saying
your best served watching this on YouTube
but I'll try to make this
digestible in audio form as well
since the vast majority of you guys are consuming it
via audio
new listings data
new listings came in at 2554 for the month
big
big print if that ends up holding up with revisions
last month's new listings actually got revised upward
so we could even see July's
new listings revised upward as well
so we're not one thing we're not struggling
with right now is that we're not having
a deficit of new homes coming on the market
and if if you're looking by the way
that 2554 that's a 22% increase
from the 2,082 new listings we had in July of
of 2024 so that's a big big increase
if you look at the at the chart
you see where I drew the line from 2013
basically going across the peaks of
of many many years and where it should be right now
we're basically exactly where it should be okay
the new listings data we have right now is exactly
in line with where it should be
based on how the market was
basically from 2013 through 2019
that's that's basically what I'm basing
these lines that I'll be doing off of
is 2013 and 20 like I said
those are the few years where we weren't
directly impacted by some kind of a recession and
and
government response
and
and some people might argue Covid wasn't a recession
whatever it's it's considered a recession by economists
so what is happening here
why does it feel still like we don't have enough supply
and the reason is here right
the gap between the line
and if you're not watching on YouTube
I'm pointing out that in 2020 2021
2023 and even 2024 we were below the line
and so we had a shortage of new listings data for many
many years and that's created a backlog that now
even though we're kind of back to where we should be
we're still playing catch up right and
and this is what happens in
in markets
often times in the real estate market specifically
is there will be artificial increases
artificial decreases caused by
by different external factors
and then you get deficits that happen
and here we've had a deficit now for the past for
for three out of the past four years of new listings
we we finally don't anymore 2022 our
our peak at least didn't even though our bottoms did
but I would go ahead and include 2022 in there
because even though the peak was up there
the the rest of the year was
was was quite low in comparison to other years
so we've had basically four years of new listings being
shorter than what they should be
we're caught up now in terms of 2025
but we're not caught up
in terms of the previous four years
pending sales I always have to warn you guys
that pending sales always gets revised in a big way
Trump wouldn't like that right
he that's the whole reason why he
fired the the person that was over
the Bureau of labor and statistics
and I get that
it's annoying to me to have these big revisions
I don't like them and but it
I'd rather have the revised
accurate data than the unrevised
incorrect data so
June got revised up from what it was
it was eight 71
it had a huge revision up to 1463 pending sales
this is the count of properties
on which offers have been accepted in a given month
so it was revised up by 600
now that was still or almost six hundred units
that's still a negative year on year number
cause June of 2025 was 1511
so we actually
pending sales for the month of June went down
minus three point two % that's our first negative print
year on year in quite some time
July on the other hand is probably gonna bounce back
currently it says 9:01 pending sales
but if we have a revision of roughly 600
more units added that would take us to around 15
which I do believe is
is what will end up maybe in the high 14
high to mid 1400s and July of last year was 1445
so we're gonna see pending sales
most likely for the month of July
once that gets revised
it's gonna be a slight increase year on year
but how does it compare to the 2013 to 2019
period of time
and this is one of the areas where we can feel
like it's more of a
of a buyer's market than a seller's market
it's that pending sales have not kept up
and here's what happened
we had a slight jump in 2020
ever so slightly
where 2020 and 2021 were just a tad bit
higher than what we would expect
now the lows of those years
the low months of those years were really high
so we have to account for that as well
but that
had the reverse effect of what we just talked about
we just talked about how
there has been a deficit in supply
well there was a surplus in demand during these years
and so now in more recent years
some of that demand just isn't there
some of that demand obviously
is gone because of the lock
in effect that we've talked about with mortgage rates
there's all sorts of reasons
but you can see here if you're looking at the
at the line we are trending way
way below where we should be
we should be right now sitting just beneath 2,000
pending sales for this month
where are we at we're at
I'm estimating for for July around 15
that is a huge huge difference
this is why the market feels slow if you're a seller
this is why and we've been going on multiple
multiple years of this
which you can see 20 22
23 and 24
and now 25
have all been trending below the 2013 to 2019 pace
close sales not surprisingly
close sales loosely follows pending sales right
you have to a a
a listing has to go pending before it closes
and so we had closed sales in July a
an increase yet again
we've had increases all year long so far year on year
3.2% increase from July of 2024
which was 1578 went up to 1629 July of 25
so that's a a small increase
in comparison to what we've had most of the year
but still an increase year on year
so more closings than last year
but how does that compare historically
it is still way way way low OK
and and again
if you're looking at the chart you can see similarly
we actually kept
really kept up with what we should have been
honestly through even 2022
the closings have
and the close sales have only really taken a
a really negative turn since 2023
and of course there has been since 2023
new construction has dominated
some of the new construction
data doesn't flow into the multiple Listing service and
and so what we're seeing here
in my personal opinion
is a gap that new construction has filled and
and that is crushing people that are trying to sell
their
their home that they currently live in the resales okay
the existing home sale market
so we should be over
well over 2000 closed units per month instead
we're at 1629 and have
have not even come close to 2000
May of this year was the highest number we'd ever have
which was 1779
and and that didn't come close to 2,000
let me tell you that
we should have been over 2,000 for pretty much
the majority of the year so far
based on trends going back to 2013
days on market until sale
this is not one we're gonna go back to 2013
trends for because yeah it it was trending down
but eventually
you have to reach a point where you don't go lower than
than a certain number and
and for this for a healthy market we
or lower or higher for a healthy market we should be
we should be seeing days on market
you know trending between 40 and seventy days is
is a normal healthy market by Greenville standards
and that's where we're at right now
we're at July 48 days on market until sale
that's a normal healthy number
now that is up from 40 days of last July
that's a substantial amount
that's a 20% increase
which is the largest increase that we've had
since October of 2024 in terms of year on year
so that's noteworthy
it's taking a lot longer as of July for homes to sell
than what it was last summer
so that's very very noteworthy
but historically going back to 2013
it's not really that noteworthy
now why it feels noteworthy
is because people got so used to homes selling quicker
that now 48 days feels like an absolute eternity
but it's really not historically speaking
median sales price this is another one of the
one of the ones that just pops off the page to me okay
the median sales price we hit a new high for Greenville
331,644 that's a 2%
a healthy 2% increase I say healthy because we don't we
we need a really I
I think the way the the
the market is right now
we don't need to see appreciation
much higher than 2 to 3%
and again this doesn't even track appreciation directly
but it's the best metric that we have for it
is to see what's the median sales price every year
it tells us the trajectory of the market
doesn't inherently tell us the level of appreciation
so you can't just go to your house and be like okay
well it's gone up in value 2% the past year no
no it
it doesn't work that way here
here what I'm saying the market as a whole
has gotten 2% more expensive the past year
some of that's appreciation
some of that is other factors
but 331 644 is now the the median sales price
which is basically it's not the average
but it basically if you want to think of the average
this one is really more accurate
in terms of what prices are right now in
in greater Greenville then the average are
cause the average is skewed by all these 2 3
4 5 million dollar homes that are being sold OK
hope that makes sense
how does this compare to 2013 though
way above way above okay
the according to my little line that I drew
our prices
in the greater Greenville area should be roughly
about 290,000 should be the median instead of 331
and we have outpaced this line dramatically
since basically the beginning of
or the middle depending on how you look at of 2021
we saw huge huge spike in appreciation
and even though we have kind of bounced around here
with the
the trend line is continuing slower but still upward
okay
what is causing this right
what what's
what's causing this
is that there is still enough demand
for us to see that gradual appreciation right
there's still enough demand in the greater Greenville
area to see prices
again gradually increase
here's the thing that most people don't realize
this mass mass increase that happened
I mean really at the
starting in 2020 and
and continuing until basically the middle of 2022
that huge increase
when the median sales price went from roughly 200,000
to almost 300,000 in just a couple of years
that
as crazy and insane as that was
Greenville did not experience
the level of appreciation that so many other markets
did
it didn't and
and same thing for Spartanburg
same thing for Anderson the greater Greenville area
did not experience the level of price increases
that many other markets did
trust me I followed it
I followed it
this looks like a bubble
okay because we suddenly had this huge jump
but you know what we also had around this time
we also had a ton of people with a ton of money
move to this area and they
they brought with them all that money
all that disposable income
we've got a lot of retirees in the state
and in this area guess what
retirees are
some of the biggest purchasers of real estate
right now more
retirees are purchasing real estate right now
than first time home buyers
OK great
Greenville is really well poised for all of this
and so what happened was
when all these other markets were seeing this extreme
extreme appreciation
Greenville did not get it all at once
but now that things have corrected
those other markets that saw that extreme appreciation
a lot of them are starting to see extreme depreciation
now there's a lot of depreciating markets
around the country particularly in the southeast
by the way people don't realize this
Florida is getting
some of the home prices in Florida getting destroyed
um
and so long story short
Greenville is still seeing price increases
because it's just a more stable market
than some of these others
the highs aren't as high as as others
the lows aren't as low as others
we didn't see the craziness
of the pandemic that others saw
and now we're not seeing the massive correction
that some of these other markets are seeing
we're seeing stability because people aren't just going
people didn't go crazy before
I know some people are gonna hear this be like
they weren't going crazy before
that market was crazy yeah
it was crazy in in many many ways
but trust me when I say this
there were some markets that were getting
30 to 40% appreciation per year
Greenville didn't have anything close to that
and so now that we're out of it
we there is still room to grow
now how do you explain this gap
the way I would explain this gap is I and
and and if you're listening
the gap I'm talking about is the gap between the line
which says that we should be at about $280,000
per sale
and the actual dot plot that says we're at 331,000
I think that the explanation
for that does come back to what we talked about
with the new listings data
there aren't enough houses on the market to still
even with inventory where
where it's at and
we'll be talking about inventory here in a second
even with inventory
sorry for all the scrolling if you're looking on
on on YouTube here
even as inventory has gone way
way up
the reality is that there still has not been enough
particularly of existing homes right
so much of the inventory story is a
is a new construction story
most people don't want new construction
for a variety of reasons most people want to buy a home
that's already been built
and and
you know
that has character and that's on a larger lot and
and maybe that's not an HOA all these different things
and so what we have
I believe is we have prices going up still
because inventory is still
we still have that deficit from those prior years
now at some point
we would catch up and then we would see maybe prices
start to go down but at the moment we're not there
average sales price is a similar story again
we're
we're way ahead of where it appears that we should be
we should be like maybe 3:25 average sales price
instead we're at 4:01 and change
which is a 1% increase year on year
again
I think 3:31 is more accurate to
to say to people that that's our average
versus the average itself
but if you care the average itself is 4:01
it's now the third straight month
of our average being above 400
we've never had that before
so that's interesting
percent of list price received stayed constant at 98.5%
same thing as it was last year
that's the first flat reading we've had all year
so far in 2025 this one I
I didn't do the the line on
because this is another one that in a healthy market
we typically see 97 to maybe even
maybe even as low as 96% but not
somewhere between 96 and 99% of list price received
96% is gonna be more in a buyer friendly market
99% more in a seller friendly market
but once you go below 96 that's like recession level
once you go above 99
that's like insano sellers market level
so we like to see between 96 and 99%
we're at 98 five that's great
that's comfortable that's what it was pre pandemic
let's keep that going
housing affordability index is at 92
that is a 1.1% decrease from 93 the year before
we have had a little bit of easing on
on mortgage rates since July
so this might go up a little bit
but as long as that median sales price
as long as mortgage rates stay the same
and the median sales price keeps going up
this number is gonna keep going down
now
here's what's interesting is that if we look at this
from 2013
it's actually exactly where you would expect it to be
based on what the data was in 2013 now
you could maybe argue that I
I didn't do this line the way I should have and
and maybe the line actually should be
should be a lot higher
it it it depends on how you do it
but the reality is that it was going down quite a bit
for quite some time maybe this is you know
I'm tinkering with it a little bit
this is probably a little bit better
so we are we are below you know
where we should be but basically
the trajectory we were going in since 2013
depending on how you look at it
we would be right around 100 as a
housing affordability index
so we're below where it's expected that we would be
based on the trend from 2013
but the reality is that since 2013
housing has gotten more and more and more expensive
and that's caused this
housing affordability index to go
lower than it should be we
we like the number to be at 100 or higher
that tells us it's an affordable market
for the average family
or at least the average family can afford
roughly the average priced home
swap out average with median
you get the right idea
but but that's where we're at
depending on how you look at it
we should be either right around 100
or if you feel like I I wasn't honest with that
the other one the other way to look at it is that
we should be at about 1:20
hold on 1 25
and that would be the other way of looking at now
if we were at that 1 25 level
we would be feeling great
I mean there would be homes flying left
off the shelves left and right
but again the reality is that we had all these months
where housing was
went super affordable in 2020 and 2021
because of mortgage rates
because the Housing Affordability
Index takes mortgage rates into account
so we had all of that affordability
and that basically robbed us of affordability
in the future
inventory of homes
this is one that that frequently gets revised
so the month of June got revised down from six thousand
6,226 down to 5,593
that's still a 28.4% increase year on year
so like I said before even though we've got
you you know
numbers show that inventory
we probably need more inventory
it's not that we're lacking inventory
we we have quite a bit of inventory in compares
in comparison to the historical norms
now July
this number is gonna be revised pretty heavily right
cause I just said
that the June number got revised by 600 and change
so the July number will get revised as well
down to probably 50
eight hundred or something like that
currently it's 6,444
50 eight hundred is still going to be the
the largest number that we've had in years years
we've not crested 6,000
homes on the market since 2,011 okay
and we are knocking at the door right now
in July of last year we had 40 432 homes on the market
that is an insane increase
to go from that to roughly
what I'm predicting is gonna be 58 ish hundred insane
so we've now seen since March
basically
five straight months of inventory going up over 20%
year on year that is a lot of inventory right now and
and this is one of the things you're competing against
if you are a seller
all of these other sellers months supply of inventory
this one usually gets revised pretty heavily down
last month
or last time we had these stats
we were told that June was 4.6 months of inventory
that got revised down to 4.0
now we're being told July is 4.7
so that's probably closer to 4.1
4.2 either way that's a big increase from the 3.3
months of supply that we saw
a year ago
so month supply of inventory is going up
that's good in a way
although I've been telling you guys
if we start to get into the mid to high fours
on the supply of inventory
it's going to feel like a buyer's market beware
the number keeps going up okay
now we're now we're starting to get into
the low fours first time in over five years
that we have seen numbers like this okay
so brace yourselves I'm not saying that
home prices are gonna crash
I'm not saying that we're
having anything crazy like that
I'm just saying we need to track this
because this tells us this one number
tells us a lot of what's happening in the market
this tells us how quickly homes are being absorbed
right and historically six months is when a
the market turns from a
seller's market to a buyer's market
but that's not the case anymore because of all
all of the new construction
that is skewing so much of this data
cause a lot of the new construction
isn't in the multiple listing service
and
and there's just a lot that happens outside of the MLS
there's a lot more inventory
what I'm saying is there's a lot of shadow inventory
okay there's a lot of inventory that's not showing
up in this data and
people need to be need to be aware of that
that's why it feels more like a buyer's market
and and it may technically be a buyer's market
you know if we had if we didn't have shadow
the shadow inventory effect and all of that
we might be able to say definitively okay
this is this is a buyer's market
but right now it's not
so much of buyers market that we're seeing prices
market wide go down
but we are seeing it in specific areas
we're seeing a lot of interesting things
so I hope that this was helpful for you guys
put it all this data in perspective
not just for the past year but for the past 12 years
and please let me know
if you have any questions on any of it
comment on YouTube like subscribe
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and please
remember that my contact information is in the
notes need a realtor in the Greenville area
that understands what's happening
guess what this data informs how I coach my clients
I use this data in everyday life
my clients have questions
well
what what if I wait 3 months or what if I wait a year
what what I don't know
I can't predict the future
but I can tell you what's happened in the past
and the past usually reflects the future
so please reach out
if you have any real estate related questions
I'm happy to help you out
thank you guys so much for listening or watching
we will talk again next time!