[SPEAKER_03]: on radio on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk, independent thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

[SPEAKER_03]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_09]: Good afternoon fellow investors.

[SPEAKER_09]: Welcome back to Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is our Monday.

[SPEAKER_09]: August, twenty-fifth, twenty-fifth edition.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'll be at a wonderful weekend.

[SPEAKER_09]: I know summer starting to, sorry, schools starting to come back in session.

[SPEAKER_09]: But regardless of the stock market, the narratives continue, especially as the market is starting to shift a little bit.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it's never time to lose focus.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is the time to

[SPEAKER_09]: Rebalance your portfolio as market shifts and our job here is to help you understand those trends, both in the near, medium and long term.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay, and give you more, give you perspective and data along with answering your finance investment questions.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's what we do each and every day on Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's our simple mission is to help you take that next step in your journey towards finance or financial freedom.

[SPEAKER_09]: So in just a bit, we'll talk about today's market.

[SPEAKER_09]: Performance, randomness, or topics, but as usual, we'll tackle this first-collar question now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, and Vestock, guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was hoping you guys could take a look at Super Micro Computer, ticker's SMCI, and let me know what you think about it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just pull back.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a sub buying opportunity.

[SPEAKER_01]: The thing that I knew is about potential fraud over.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is that something that still had one for the company?

[SPEAKER_01]: I know that came out past few months or past year.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's got me hesitant, but I feel like a lot of the analysts talk about all this growth and it could potentially be undervalued and this might be a good opportunity to buy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll listen on the show.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks guys, bye.

[SPEAKER_09]: All right, looking at super micro computer and you make a fantastic point and it's a reason I would avoid it is because any when there's smoke, there's fire.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's some recent accounting issues and a lot of worries about fraud there and you know, there's a lot of short interest here and that can create big rallies, but there's a reason why there's so much short interest.

[SPEAKER_09]: Right, because

[SPEAKER_09]: Once again, when there's smoke, there's fire, that's a history set.

[SPEAKER_09]: And now super micro they make.

[SPEAKER_09]: they make application optimized server systems mainly for AI development.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so not only do you have the risk of AI in infrastructure investment slowing, I don't think it's going to go away, but it's most likely going to slow due to the lack of killer applications being developed, the slow progression of AI capabilities, which was kind of

[SPEAKER_09]: shown recently with a rollout of CHP-P-P-P-P-P-P.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, you know, you have those double risk there.

[SPEAKER_09]: Are they really selling as much?

[SPEAKER_09]: Did they really have the right margins?

[SPEAKER_09]: And even if you look at what they're posting recently, earnings last quarter were down twenty four percent year of year.

[SPEAKER_09]: And the previous quarter before that, they were down fifty three percent year of year.

[SPEAKER_09]: So, full year, twenty twenty five earnings are expected to actually decline three percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: So where's the beef here?

[SPEAKER_09]: Where is this killer application killer products that they are producing?

[SPEAKER_09]: They really aren't producing anything special compared to a lot of the other server makers that are out there.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I don't see a economic mode.

[SPEAKER_09]: I see a lot of potential risk around the

[SPEAKER_09]: accounting issues and then obviously a sled on the investment.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I wouldn't buy into the hype and the technical frankly are looking pretty poor as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I'm passing on it.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now we lot of ground to cover over the next forty five minutes or so in time for many will cover all of it and our main focus point concerns the twelve total freeways save money fast and boost your passive income.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay, so we'll dig into how many makes that free.

[SPEAKER_09]: Maybe some of them.

[SPEAKER_09]: Maybe none of them.

[SPEAKER_09]: We'll dig into that.

[SPEAKER_09]: In addition, we'll talk about stagflation.

[SPEAKER_09]: We are in a stagflationary environment.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_09]: What does that mean for things like treasuries and gold and equities, et cetera?

[SPEAKER_09]: So dig into that in more detail.

[SPEAKER_09]: Also, we have a now a stagnant labor market.

[SPEAKER_09]: Droom pal.

[SPEAKER_09]: kind of spoke to that at the Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

[SPEAKER_09]: And we'll dig into the details there.

[SPEAKER_09]: What that really looks like really it's a whole lot of holding on holding on their workers, but not a whole lot of hiring new new workers.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay, so we'll dig into the details there.

[SPEAKER_09]: And then lastly, how the lack of immigration is transforming the labor market.

[SPEAKER_09]: We also have voice bank calls, one is in regards to the VIX and the other is retirement accounts.

[SPEAKER_09]: And then we have some questions that came in via the comment section over on the investor.com YouTube channels.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, and of course, I welcome your finance and investment questions right now.

[SPEAKER_09]: But we're heading into a short break.

[SPEAKER_09]: So please remember to call any time and leave your question on the investor's voice bank.

[SPEAKER_09]: You're listening via our live stream or possibly on AM-Twelve-Twenty in the Bay Area.

[SPEAKER_09]: You can call right now live at eight a day, nine a night chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: But next, I will comment on today's market activity.

[SPEAKER_07]: Okay, gotta get serious with my finances.

[SPEAKER_07]: I've been working a long time and I know there's still gotta be more that I can do to build my wealth quicker.

[SPEAKER_07]: I don't wanna have to work forever.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you are not maximizing your employer-sponsored retirement plan, KPP Financial can help.

[SPEAKER_09]: With our professional oversight, you can potentially enhance your investment performance by an average of three percent annually.

[SPEAKER_09]: At KPP Financial, we provide a comprehensive four-of-one K-management program designed to optimize your retirement savings.

[SPEAKER_09]: Our approach includes creating custom investment allocations tailored to your goals and risk tolerance.

[SPEAKER_09]: That can make a big difference in your favor.

[SPEAKER_07]: Maybe it's time to tune up my retirement plan.

[SPEAKER_09]: For more information on how you can take control of your retirement savings, visit our website KPPFinancial.com KPPFinancial, sounds good!

[SPEAKER_08]: The Invest Talk phone lines never close, and now Justin Klein is here taking your calls live.

[SPEAKER_08]: Invest Talk, eight, eight, ninety-nine, chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's take a look at the market today.

[SPEAKER_09]: It was an overall down day.

[SPEAKER_09]: Wasn't major, but we didn't really get follow through from that rally on the back of Jackson Hole on Friday.

[SPEAKER_09]: Kind of what you would like to see, but we didn't really get that today.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have the S&P really close near the lows and down

[SPEAKER_09]: Almost half a percent there.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Nasdaq same thing kind of closed near the lows and was down about a quarter percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Dow down near over three quarters of one percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: So that was interesting kind of end day activity.

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, I think the reason there wasn't more volatility is because the really big news comes later in the week.

[SPEAKER_09]: So Wednesday, we have after the Bell, we have the Nvidia earnings and with any Nvidia now being the largest company by market gap in the world.

[SPEAKER_09]: And a very heavy weight, I think it's a percent of the S&P itself.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is going to be a big market mover, especially with the downstream impact of what they say and what that report will look like to the rest of the market.

[SPEAKER_09]: If they sell off, then a lot of other AI type of names likely sell off as well and vice versa.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think the market's kind of waiting for that Thursday we get more jobs numbers and then Friday is the PCE figure and the PCE is the Fed's most preferred inflation gauge.

[SPEAKER_09]: It is expected to accelerate by to two point seven percent year over year, point three percent month over month.

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, well, that surprised the upside down is that we'll see.

[SPEAKER_09]: So those are kind of the bigger market moving events later in the week.

[SPEAKER_09]: So, but interesting kind of cellular lack of follow through on Friday.

[SPEAKER_09]: What else moved?

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, dollar index was up point eight percent gold.

[SPEAKER_09]: you with a strong dollar was a little changed.

[SPEAKER_09]: Bitcoin down four point seven percent and this is actually interesting to me.

[SPEAKER_09]: This was the most notable market movement since the Jackson Hole event is the fact that Bitcoin is not seeing a requisite follow through to the upside.

[SPEAKER_09]: I've said before, go back to twenty twenty one.

[SPEAKER_09]: For example, Bitcoin beats about four to six weeks before the equity markets did.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so if

[SPEAKER_09]: They, if you're not getting follow through to the upside on Bitcoin, then that is a signal to the rest of the market.

[SPEAKER_09]: And what's happened here is Bitcoin now, just, I think just now.

[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, lost the one ten level.

[SPEAKER_09]: I said recently, if it breaks the one twelve level, that is

[SPEAKER_09]: a bit of a warning sign.

[SPEAKER_09]: And remember, because this is a proxy for liquidity.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so you're starting to get the Bitcoin trade rolling over.

[SPEAKER_09]: And this is telling me that this rally off Jackson Hole

[SPEAKER_09]: I have a strong feeling it's not going to hold the least in the short term.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now once again, it's just saying, oh, this is the top and you know, the market's going to roll over, twenty thirty percent from here.

[SPEAKER_09]: No, I don't think that's probably where we're at.

[SPEAKER_09]: Do you think we have one last

[SPEAKER_09]: phase in this broader growth phase that we have since the bottom in twenty twenty twenty twenty one right late late twenty twenty two late twenty two is when the market bottom right and so I think we're we're in this last phase or going to go into last phase but usually get a kind of a pullback uh... as the market is overbought and I think we're we're heading for that in the shorter term uh... in Bitcoin is a signal for that uh... what else happened today you had WTI those of one point six percent oil a bit stronger

[SPEAKER_09]: And yeah, oh treasuries they were weaker.

[SPEAKER_09]: So you did see yields up about four basis points on the short end.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_09]: So that was interesting is that kind of gave back a little bit of that that move in the on Friday on the back of the Jackson Hole meeting.

[SPEAKER_09]: So pretty interesting day in markets and we'll get more data as we get through the week.

[SPEAKER_09]: Remember, today we've seen questions from the comments section of the Invest.

[SPEAKER_09]: YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_09]: And here comes one that came in earlier.

[SPEAKER_09]: SSJ Baller says, hi, Justin, what are your thoughts on silver now?

[SPEAKER_09]: Is it time to take profits or hold longer?

[SPEAKER_09]: Looking at EXK, EXK is the symbol.

[SPEAKER_09]: And this is an Devere Silver and Devere Silver.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it's a smaller name, one point five billion dollar market cap.

[SPEAKER_09]: They are supposed to lose money this year, but make forty-eight cents.

[SPEAKER_09]: Next year, which would be huge all-time, looks like all-time highs and earnings.

[SPEAKER_09]: Training at five, seventy-five now, will they make that probably not, but that's what analysts currently project.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, the broader question is how much silver exposure need.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, I do think silver will continue to go up, you know, we're in the midst of monetary debasements, and that's kind of the only way out here with our debt situation is monetary debasement.

[SPEAKER_09]: A weaker dollar was certainly help gold as well, silver.

[SPEAKER_09]: And when you're in a precious metal bull market, historically silver does outperform.

[SPEAKER_09]: But we're also in this environment where essential banks around the world are buying a ton and ton more gold.

[SPEAKER_09]: Are they buying a lot more silver?

[SPEAKER_09]: No, not really.

[SPEAKER_09]: So, we continue to lead on gold.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think it's okay to have some silver exposure.

[SPEAKER_09]: But if you're betting on precious metals in general to guard against monetary debasement that was likely ahead,

[SPEAKER_09]: I don't think silver is where you want to lean.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's get.

[SPEAKER_09]: Can you have exposure?

[SPEAKER_09]: Sure.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think you still want to lean gold.

[SPEAKER_09]: So if you have no silver exposure and you have substantial gold exposure with that through miners or GLD or some other gold proxy.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's good.

[SPEAKER_09]: And adding this is fine, but probably a probably wouldn't be my favorite silver name.

[SPEAKER_09]: And once again, it wouldn't be with the majority of my precious metal exposure would be thanks for the question.

[SPEAKER_09]: I love those YouTube questions.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, what are we going to?

[SPEAKER_09]: Biving to our going to a live call right now.

[SPEAKER_09]: Dawn in or in the California.

[SPEAKER_09]: Looking at you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm curious.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's exactly right.

[SPEAKER_02]: One year and a few days ago, I purchased UPS understanding it was going to come in at their own little bit of pressure, a no deal of thirty percent.

[SPEAKER_02]: Should I just go ahead and dump it?

[SPEAKER_02]: Or is it still?

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, it depends on your time horizon.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's your time horizon.

[SPEAKER_09]: The technicals on UPS continue to struggle.

[SPEAKER_09]: Obviously, there is the

[SPEAKER_09]: There's the tariff issue that's going to probably reduce the supply of the flow of goods throughout our economy, and UPS is in the crosshairs of that.

[SPEAKER_09]: And the technical continues to kind of weigh on the picture in the shorter term.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, at some point, this is going to bottom out.

[SPEAKER_09]: We're still going to see products move.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's still a good business with a good balance sheet, with good profitability.

[SPEAKER_09]: So, am I hopeful that this turns around in the next week or month or by year end?

[SPEAKER_09]: I don't get jazzed up in that risk proposition.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, would do I get excited about buying it here if I have a five year time horizon?

[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, I think this is a good valuation to make that bet.

[SPEAKER_09]: Right, price of sales now is down around a point eight three, which I don't think it's ever been this low.

[SPEAKER_09]: Outside of the financial crisis, oh wait, that's the last time UPS on a price sales basis has been this low.

[SPEAKER_09]: So from that perspective, I would hold it so just depends on your time, guys.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now we're heading to a break.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm ready for your calls now at eight and eight nine you're going to chart.

[SPEAKER_08]: The calls are free, the unbiased answers are free.

[SPEAKER_08]: So what are you waiting for?

[SPEAKER_08]: Call in Vestock, eight, eight, nine, chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: Investock, innovators.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now I have your attention.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let me tell you about the new series.

[SPEAKER_09]: They're viewing on our Invest Talk YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_09]: Pulling Invest Talk Innovators, Luke and I will be bringing you insightful interviews with company leaders, founders, and visionaries.

[SPEAKER_09]: At our first episode, Luke spoke with.

[SPEAKER_09]: Aaron Bokta, the mind behind Inside Ownership.

[SPEAKER_09]: You got some of the flossy around the best thing.

[SPEAKER_09]: Foundered lead businesses come out for a real advantage and passes on some practical tips that you don't want to miss and watch the full interview.

[SPEAKER_09]: Visit our on best talk to YouTube channel today and stay tuned for more conversations with more and best talk innovators coming up that we have a really big one in the next couple of weeks.

[SPEAKER_09]: So be in the lookout for that.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now my focus point concerns this

[SPEAKER_09]: twelve total freeways to save money fast and boost your passive income.

[SPEAKER_09]: So these are simple in many ways, but different ways to really boost your income for without huge outlays, okay?

[SPEAKER_09]: So the first is obviously dividend stocks, you know, transitioning portfolios to produce more income, especially if you're just owning the index

[SPEAKER_09]: That's pretty low dividend yields.

[SPEAKER_09]: And there are higher dividend yielders out there.

[SPEAKER_09]: And you could build a portfolio of really strong, with really strong income.

[SPEAKER_09]: The issue is that you suddenly have to manage it.

[SPEAKER_09]: And there are a lot of what are called value traps out there where the dividends look juicy, but those dividends will get cut at some point because of the lack of strength in the business of the balance sheet.

[SPEAKER_09]: So what you're doing that you want to make sure you are

[SPEAKER_09]: picking dividend payers, prudently, and with deeper research.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay, so that's number one.

[SPEAKER_09]: Number two is, reach, and this is,

[SPEAKER_09]: I would not buy private reads, so it's day far away from that or anything.

[SPEAKER_09]: Those private reads that they sell through online, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_09]: There are a lot of those out there.

[SPEAKER_09]: I would pass on those.

[SPEAKER_09]: But public reads, they have to pass, ninety percent of their taxable income to shareholders.

[SPEAKER_09]: So the pass through entities.

[SPEAKER_09]: So this is a good way, especially for those that want real estate exposure in that income generation without having to manage a piece of property.

[SPEAKER_09]: And you want diversity amongst your assets beyond just your typical, you know, eleven twelve sectors that are out there in the market.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now there would be peer to peer lending.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now you can lend your money out.

[SPEAKER_09]: And now this is

[SPEAKER_09]: This has a lot of risk, but you are getting rewarded with high yields.

[SPEAKER_09]: So having a part of your portfolio in this can make sense, but think of it as high yield debt, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: Investing in high yield corporate bonds, for example, very similar type of risk profile, but probably even a little bit higher than what you're getting in the public markets.

[SPEAKER_09]: Then you get into the crypto space, crypto staking, and if T-staking, and if you royal T's, e-book royalties.

[SPEAKER_09]: Sorry, I got e-book royalties, separate.

[SPEAKER_09]: But defy yield farming.

[SPEAKER_09]: These are all different ways than the crypto space to earn more yield.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, understand that there are drawbacks, there's a lot of volatility within the crypto space, and you do

[SPEAKER_09]: Expose yourself to a lot of underlying volatility of the assets.

[SPEAKER_09]: So make sure you pick your underlying asset carefully, very carefully.

[SPEAKER_09]: Then there's ebook royalties, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: Writing ebooks that you have to market it, you have to sell it, but just take your own mind and your own talent to pick a topic mean to know a lot about.

[SPEAKER_09]: And I think that can be a great way to do it as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: CD ladders.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is a, probably a conservative way, probably one of the most conservative ways to earn more money on your money beyond just putting in the savings account.

[SPEAKER_09]: City ladders to lock your up, lock your money up, but kind of guarantee you income over time.

[SPEAKER_09]: This next one is when I probably love the most on this list, and it's creating content and monetizing.

[SPEAKER_09]: In the age of social media,

[SPEAKER_09]: And the internet, you can find a million different ways to monetize your own talents.

[SPEAKER_09]: Substack is probably my favorite.

[SPEAKER_09]: I subscribe to multiple substacks that provide fantastic content.

[SPEAKER_09]: Almost all of it around economics or investing.

[SPEAKER_09]: And there's a ton of great ones out there.

[SPEAKER_09]: And maybe you have the talent to create the next great substack.

[SPEAKER_09]: Then cross do anything and there are plenty of platforms that allow you to do that whether

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, there's obviously others besides just subs that.

[SPEAKER_09]: But the next is print on demand.

[SPEAKER_09]: So coming up with an old merchandise, you can drop shit, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: There's ways to get these items printed and shipped.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's just obviously up to you to design them and market them.

[SPEAKER_09]: Think coffee mug, shirts, books, posters, things like that that can be created in a very efficient way in today's economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: And then lastly, affiliate marketing.

[SPEAKER_09]: Come in influencer, content creator, and getting others pushing other people's products that maybe help or ancillary to what you do.

[SPEAKER_09]: So in a world where everyone's looking for income, and maybe some people don't have a lot of capital to create that income, there are different

[SPEAKER_09]: avenues to achieve better angle, which is some sort of, I wouldn't say passive income, passive income, I think is overused, but income that just takes a little bit of work.

[SPEAKER_09]: And frankly, all income takes a little bit of work.

[SPEAKER_09]: Some a lot, some a little.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now the next and best talk, we'll look into this story.

[SPEAKER_09]: There are fresh risks to market including slowing job growth and rising long-term employment.

[SPEAKER_09]: This may be opening the door to industry cuts.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well this will dive dig into that story tomorrow, but for now I'm Justin Klein ready to take your calls and eight and eight ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Got a question for Justin or Luke, you're the best person to ask it.

[SPEAKER_04]: I wanted to pick your ring about Apple.

[SPEAKER_04]: What did you think about their earnings call?

[SPEAKER_04]: They're just a good time to add to my position.

[SPEAKER_03]: Call in Vestock, eight a day, ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_08]: Twenty twenty five rolls on and you might have some fresh questions for Justin or Luke.

[SPEAKER_08]: Call in Vestock eight eight eight ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_04]: Hey Justin and Luke.

[SPEAKER_04]: This is Josh in North Carolina.

[SPEAKER_04]: I had a question.

[SPEAKER_04]: I'm going back through Steve's book on investing in round page thirteen.

[SPEAKER_04]: He talks about the VIX and I track the VIX along with other stocks and

[SPEAKER_04]: He was talking about how the VIX can be used to signal might be time to purchase or sell a stock.

[SPEAKER_04]: I'm a little confused on that.

[SPEAKER_04]: Did you guys go back over that at some point on your show and just discuss the purpose of the VIX and maybe a few examples of what those numbers might trigger?

[SPEAKER_04]: I know they're relative of values, but I've been listed some other podcasts here in one or two folks mentioned the VIX these days just as a signal that

[SPEAKER_04]: of the market may be getting ready to change, may be getting ready to slow down or something not sure.

[SPEAKER_04]: But if you would, enjoyed reading about it in Steve's book, but just need a little bit more clarification on how to use the VIX.

[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks a lot.

[SPEAKER_09]: Great question, and certainly there needs more context after, since Steve wrote that book, Steve wrote that book a long time ago.

[SPEAKER_09]: But the institution of volatility, small selling funds, shall we say.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's kind of changed the dynamics of the VIX a little bit, but I'll dig into that after I give you the broad overview.

[SPEAKER_09]: The volatility makes it simply a put call ratio.

[SPEAKER_09]: How many puts versus calls are being treated?

[SPEAKER_09]: And when it's elevated, it means that a lot of puts are being bought on the market.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that means there's a lot of fear.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's a lot of people trying to buy a protection.

[SPEAKER_09]: And usually when that happens, well, the market is set to bottom, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: Means that when you get a spike in the VIX, there's a lot of fear in, you know, you buy fear, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: You typically sell greed.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so that's what the VIX index is helping with.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so where are we in the fear and greed type of spectrum?

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's why when the fix elevated, you know, thirty plus that's usually a time to really really buy in and add, you know, so I got some cash from your portfolio and buy some positions, especially those that have been in your watch list.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, with the volatility funds, there's a lot of people going out there by selling zero, DTE, they sell expiration options and really trying to bring in income into their portfolios and the strategies.

[SPEAKER_09]: And there's a lot of now ETFs that are running those type of strategies.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I'll just blow up a few years back and try to remember what I think is pre-COVID when you had volatility just explode and a lot of these went to nothing.

[SPEAKER_09]: What you see now is that every dip that's not just being bought by average investor, but definitely being sold and that actually suppresses volatility over time.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it's actually kind of skewed the signal of the VIX because it's becoming more suppressed than it probably should be because of those vault selling funds.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's why you see the VIX now, hanging around.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's see where we're at now with the VIX.

[SPEAKER_09]: Hang around in the mid teens, usually the low twenties was where it was trading at many years ago before these fall selling funds.

[SPEAKER_09]: And now we're once getting hanging in the mid teens.

[SPEAKER_09]: So it's really about when is it spike?

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's really the best signal, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: The recent spike in April, one up to fifth, about sixty.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so a signal that want to be buying a bit into the market.

[SPEAKER_09]: So that's the way you want to use it.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's go with another YouTube comment question and Spence says, what do you thoughts on Celsius, C-E-L-H?

[SPEAKER_09]: I've been holding it for around four months.

[SPEAKER_09]: Send them about sixty percent to you.

[SPEAKER_09]: Think I should hold it long term or should I be looking to sell?

[SPEAKER_09]: Those are the name I kind of liked a few months back and

[SPEAKER_09]: I actually bought it for my personal account.

[SPEAKER_09]: We didn't buy it for clients because it was a bit too speculative, but I did buy it in the, I think about it in the twenties at thirties.

[SPEAKER_09]: And frankly, I sold it in the forties so little early, but uh, and now it's a sixty.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now it's just there in a dollar ten this year, and a dollar forty five forty nine next year.

[SPEAKER_09]: So one of the reasons I sold it was just kind of elevated in price.

[SPEAKER_09]: And I think you missed it.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think it's sixty it's not cheap.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think it in the twenty is it was cheap because you know it's still had that growth potential.

[SPEAKER_09]: Good balance sheet and.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think the thought it was going to snap back in earnings and that's what it's happened right last year, twenty four earnings fell nine percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: So that's why the stock fell from a high around a hundred dollars per share to a low around twenty one.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's natural, you know, you have.

[SPEAKER_09]: Company trading at very high multiple in growth goes negative.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, that multiple is going to disappear.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it did.

[SPEAKER_09]: But now we're seeing a bit of growth.

[SPEAKER_09]: And I don't think you're going to, this growth profile is all over the place.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so now it probably doesn't grow, fifty seven percent earnings this year, another thirty five percent next year.

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, that's probably pendulum swaying the direction.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I would keep an eye on it.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think at some point valuations,

[SPEAKER_09]: Get attractive again, probably sub-forty, but not at six yellowish per share.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's talk about stag, flation, stag, flation, and what does that mean for global markets?

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, this is according to Bank of America Global Research.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is an early August, early this month.

[SPEAKER_09]: They said, seventy percent of global investors surveyed, expect stag flation over the next twelve months.

[SPEAKER_09]: You're talking about below trend growth and above trend inflation.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's exactly it.

[SPEAKER_09]: And you've seen that as of late, you've seen labor market weakening, you've seen inflation measures starting to perk up again.

[SPEAKER_09]: I said that in the back after you're likely to see that and you're starting to get that, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: You saw the PCE of VCs.

[SPEAKER_09]: PC is Friday.

[SPEAKER_09]: The PPI, the PPI producer price index, starting to accelerate the typically lead CPI, the typically leads PCE indicators, okay?

[SPEAKER_09]: if the labor market continues to flounder, and you have a rougher economic picture from a growth perspective, you're getting stacciflation.

[SPEAKER_09]: And those signs continue to creep in.

[SPEAKER_09]: But how does that manifest in markets if you do get, if you solidify stacciflation?

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, the first is longer data assets tend to go down, think of longer data bonds.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay, why?

[SPEAKER_09]: Because they arose the value of fixed interest payments over time.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think of going back to, twenty, twenty, twenty, nineteen.

[SPEAKER_09]: Twenty, nineteen.

[SPEAKER_09]: Institutes were low.

[SPEAKER_09]: And inflation was low.

[SPEAKER_09]: And then you saw a huge price increases.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, that eroded the value of those coupon payments multiple years out.

[SPEAKER_09]: Because the assumption was that the value of that dollar that you would get many years in the future would be roughly the same, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: There would be a little bit of inflation, but not a big deal.

[SPEAKER_09]: But if you start to see stack inflation, you're getting a lower dollar most likely because of the

[SPEAKER_09]: impact of the economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: So when the economy of the domestic market weekends compared to the rest of the world, that currency will weaken.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's what you're seeing recently with the dollar, the economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so many investors, not just average individuals, but also pension funds and shares, they invest in longer-dated bonds as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: And they are certainly worried.

[SPEAKER_09]: They're pulling back from their exposure to those longer-dated securities.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you see a cell off in ten year, thirty year, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_09]: Then you're going to see impacts across other asset classes that are longer duration.

[SPEAKER_09]: Think of growth stocks, for example.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is what happened in twenty twenty two, would insure it's rose dramatically.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have a NASDAQ down thirty three percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of the pawns you type of names fell out of bet.

[SPEAKER_09]: The pelotons of the world, et cetera, that just didn't have business models that were sustainable.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay, so that's how can manifest into the rest of the equity markets.

[SPEAKER_09]: And then you have other assets, like goal, goal is to continue to be a tailwind to goal prices like it was in the seventies.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it already is an asset class that is go to right now because of the geopolitical volatility that we're seeing.

[SPEAKER_09]: And the fact that central banks are on the world continue to buy it.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, goal will certainly get a continued tailwind.

[SPEAKER_09]: Other assets that might be good?

[SPEAKER_09]: Think of short, curated, short duration, inflation, link security.

[SPEAKER_09]: So think of short duration tips, zero to five years.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's an ETF out there, STIP, kind of similar to that type of exposure.

[SPEAKER_09]: So that's the way Stagflation, if it gets entrenched, will impact the markets overall.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's go talk to Richard and Valencia looking at MAA and INVH imitation homes.

[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, hi, Justin.

[SPEAKER_06]: Thanks for taking my call.

[SPEAKER_06]: But looking at investing in a reach, investing in real estate, and two possibilities, the apartment side, the MAA, the Mid-American apartment versus residential houses, the invitation homes, given this economic environment, what do you think would be a better place

[SPEAKER_06]: to invest in.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think it's pretty clear.

[SPEAKER_09]: It would be apartments.

[SPEAKER_09]: Because if you have a situation right now where prices across the board, and for the most part around the country, prices are elevated, the affordability indicators are very poor.

[SPEAKER_09]: And I think we're going to go through a three probably five year period where broadly

[SPEAKER_09]: Housing prices are going to decline a little.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, it's not going to be a way where prices decline, you know, thirty, forty percent, fifty percent depending on the market obviously in a short period of time.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think it's going to be, you know, single digit price declines in most markets for the next three to five years to correct this over valuation in real estate more broadly.

[SPEAKER_09]: And I think there's going to be continued low

[SPEAKER_09]: activity within the real estate market because I think mortgage rates are going to stay relative to the other can they come down could you see the five handle on mortgage rates right now for migratory rates are about six point eight percent roughly but you know could you see a five sure and that would help the housing market a little bit but it's not going to change really the affordability crisis that we see throughout the country

[SPEAKER_09]: That means one more people are going to be forced to continue to rent because they can't afford to buy home.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's going to help the apartment sector.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, we've done the research and the apartment, it reads out there.

[SPEAKER_09]: I will say, in America is not bad, but it's not the best.

[SPEAKER_09]: in this and in the reach space when it comes to apartments.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I like what you're thinking, but I would definitely lean on the apartment communities more than the reads that own single-family residences.

[SPEAKER_06]: If you're lucky, it's, you know, having a little bit of diversification.

[SPEAKER_06]: When I was saying, though, don't do any and like an invitation homes, but I think what I hear saying, you put

[SPEAKER_06]: You know, a lot more in the apartment than you would, you know, the houses.

[SPEAKER_09]: Yes, but probably before even go to housing rates, I would diversify into other types of rates out there, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: There's, you know, a dozen or so different types of rates that you can invest in.

[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_09]: Frankly, I would probably rather own, and I usually don't say this, I don't, I rather own a mortgage rate than a housing rate.

[SPEAKER_09]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_09]: You better yield your getting exposure to housing, but you're getting it at a better, a better collateral, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: You're kind of getting the backing of the under like, because I think there's still a lot of equity in these homes, but you're going to feel it.

[SPEAKER_09]: You see that with imitation homes, relative strength is pretty bad, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: And so I would not be getting exposure to

[SPEAKER_09]: They'd be low on the list.

[SPEAKER_09]: If I'm talking about, you know, the dozen or so type of reach out there, housing would be very low on the list.

[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_09]: All right.

[SPEAKER_09]: All right.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks a lot.

[SPEAKER_09]: No problem.

[SPEAKER_09]: Those are the back to the best luck voice bank for this question that came in earlier.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, eight or eight, nine, nine chart.

[SPEAKER_05]: I just don't know.

[SPEAKER_05]: My name's Jim from New York.

[SPEAKER_05]: I have a general question about retirement accounts.

[SPEAKER_05]: I am currently a cold time employee and I have a full three D. I also have a small business and self employed as well.

[SPEAKER_05]: I was wondering if I can max out my full three B for my full time components and also start another retirement account for my small business.

[SPEAKER_05]: Can I contribute to two different retirement accounts like a FRA or another kind of a retirement account for my small business?

[SPEAKER_05]: Is that possible?

[SPEAKER_05]: Is it legal?

[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well answer is yes you can.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now there are limitations to it.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's limitations basically an income and total contributions.

[SPEAKER_09]: So this is something that you want to talk to you.

[SPEAKER_09]: They tax advisor or that's CPA or some other licensed tax advisor to help you with that because I've said I don't know your income.

[SPEAKER_09]: But you can't.

[SPEAKER_09]: You can contribute to a four or three B or a four or one K or a TSP and contribute to an IRA or Roth IRA or a set IRA depending on what you qualify for.

[SPEAKER_09]: But it depends on your total income and that total contribution.

[SPEAKER_09]: So make sure you talk to a licensed professional before you

[SPEAKER_09]: Before you do that, okay, or an advisor, or a financial advisor.

[SPEAKER_09]: Like me, that would go over exactly what this looks like and help explain kind of where you're at within the rules of the tax code.

[SPEAKER_09]: Not tax professional, but you know, the basics.

[SPEAKER_09]: But once again, if you know kind of instantly what that income really looks like.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call a great question.

[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of people don't know that.

[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of you don't understand that

[SPEAKER_09]: It's not just your forum, okay, it's not just your fourth or be, it's not just even an IRA, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, you have limitations to that, the captive contributions, but it's always good to consult with the tax professional before you make that contribution.

[SPEAKER_09]: Those are the best thought.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_09]: We have one goal here each every week.

[SPEAKER_09]: They mess up your chief, your own version of financial freedom.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it will continue after this final break.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Hey, date eight, ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: No, let's talk a little bit about the labor market, something that the head of the Fed drove out talked about on Friday, Jackson Hole.

[SPEAKER_09]: And what he said was the labor market environment is curious.

[SPEAKER_09]: That was his quote, curious.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it's really a lot about shrinking supply of workers because of immigration restrictions.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's the hiring side.

[SPEAKER_09]: Sorry, that's the supply of labor side.

[SPEAKER_09]: But then there's the demand in labor that is also drying up as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's an interesting case because there's not a lot of firings.

[SPEAKER_09]: Very little.

[SPEAKER_09]: But the pace of hiring has slowed dramatically.

[SPEAKER_09]: In June, the hiring rate, number of hires the share of the overall U.S.

[SPEAKER_09]: population was just three point three percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: In February, twenty twenty, pre-pandemic is three point nine percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it was four point six percent as we were recovering from COVID and November of twenty twenty one.

[SPEAKER_09]: The three point three is very low.

[SPEAKER_09]: And there's a quote from the Dallas Fed monthly manufacturing survey.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is in July.

[SPEAKER_09]: And one executive said, quote, tariff changes require a sit back and watch attitude.

[SPEAKER_09]: There is no way to forecast in quote.

[SPEAKER_09]: So it's the lack of clarity about the future economic environment as well as the low labor supply that is really the culprit.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now there's the other aspect that's probably less discussed, and that's that employers, they over-hire during the pandemic.

[SPEAKER_09]: So a lot of them have a lot of excess labor to throw on any demand, and it doesn't make sense for them with that lack of clarity to continue to hire more.

[SPEAKER_09]: But they're also not laying off workers, because overall you're still seeing earnings growth for companies, even though it's slowing across the economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now Leia, this year of total employment, came at one percent in June.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's not much higher than the point nine percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: Reach during, twenty twenty one when the, what's getting the market was, or the economy was roaring back.

[SPEAKER_09]: Right.

[SPEAKER_09]: So people aren't getting laid off.

[SPEAKER_09]: They're just, also not getting hired.

[SPEAKER_09]: And this is really hurting the younger people who are, right, graduating from college and looking for a job.

[SPEAKER_09]: And then those on the lower end of the spectrum, poor workers, they're also starting to see their wage growth, cooling.

[SPEAKER_09]: Because those owners, right, they're going to, I don't say punish.

[SPEAKER_09]: But they're going to pay less attention to those lower income workers than those higher paid workers that they need more.

[SPEAKER_09]: And those lower income workers, they tend to, you're able to find that labor more often.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now the risk here is that if you get a tick up in layoffs, you don't have that labor demand behind it to really offset a weakening jobs market or weakening demand for labor.

[SPEAKER_09]: There are about one point six million layoffs in June, and that was the layoff rate is only one percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now that just goes up to one point three percent,

[SPEAKER_09]: Suddenly, you have about two million more people unemployed over the next year.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's a recessionary type of rise in the unemployment rate.

[SPEAKER_09]: And currently one in five U.S.

[SPEAKER_09]: employers survey according to the conference board said that they were planning to slow hiring in the second half of twenty twenty five.

[SPEAKER_09]: So what you're seeing is that the economy is the labor market is teetering.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, continue there for a while.

[SPEAKER_09]: We can stay here for a while, frankly, we've been here for six, six, six, six months.

[SPEAKER_09]: And if you get the fed easing and the yield curve steepening and you get banks to

[SPEAKER_09]: Could I fill in the gap if total earnings in the economy are declining?

[SPEAKER_09]: But that's countered by more bank lending.

[SPEAKER_09]: You could see the labor market hanging in there for a little bit longer.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's why I say only worth the end of this growth phase.

[SPEAKER_09]: But we're getting into the evening.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now I'm Justin Klein, and if today's show made you think about your own financial picture in any way, your investments, your taxes, your retirement planning, whatever that is, I encourage you to head over to invest.com, click on the portfolio review button, and we can set up a call and help bring clarity in confidence too.

[SPEAKER_09]: Whatever you're doing, whatever your goals are, wherever you sit today.

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