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[SPEAKER_10]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero,

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[SPEAKER_06]: Good afternoon fellow investors, and welcome back to another episode of Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I'm your host, Lou Guerrero, and today's Wednesday, September 10th, 2025.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We're halfway through the day, we're rather halfway through the week that is and quickly approaching the end of this year.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And as we approach a new year,

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[SPEAKER_06]: One thing one of the things we start to think about is what are our new years' resolutions?

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[SPEAKER_06]: Hopefully for some of you, for all of us, our resolution includes taking stock of our financial lives.

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[SPEAKER_06]: But if it's a good idea to start in January of the year, it's a good idea to start today.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so we here at Investock see us as one small part of that goal of taking stock of your financial

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so we meet here each and every day to help make you a better and more informed investor.

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[SPEAKER_06]: In order to do that, we bring a mixture of educational focus points, talking points.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We talk about what happens in the market, but most importantly, we answer your finance and investment questions without you contributing to this show, invest talk does not exist.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so with that being said, before we talk about today's market performance, let's tackle our first caller question.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And that caller question is going to be from Sid from North Carolina, who is calling in early, I love it, Sid, you got a question about Disney, do you want to be looking to buy it?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks for taking my call.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I do have a small podium.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's been taken sometimes in the middle of COVID.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It was a little bit downstream and then now past couple of quarters it is more always sideways still playing between 110 and 20.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Do you think this is a long term good strategy or if you have to try add more or try take whatever the profit I have and call it a day.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you for your guidance.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Of course, Disney, the Walt Disney company, one of the most well-known brands on Planet Earth, it is a leading global entertainment mega-comglomerate, they own theme parks, they have streaming, they have movies that they release to sell more of their theme parks and more of their streaming.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so, you know, one of the benefits that Disney has had,

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[SPEAKER_06]: In the past couple years, past year or so, as they started turning a profit within their streaming service.

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[SPEAKER_06]: If you recall, there was a big rush to move to streaming.

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[SPEAKER_06]: You had Disney plus becoming big.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now, you have these joint ventures within the sports world, but it all cost a lot of money buying a buy peak to be stocked as as viewable content.

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[SPEAKER_06]: on their streaming service cost money.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And a couple of quarters ago, they just started to turn a little bit of a profit.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now recently in the past three months, Q3 earnings per share did beat slightly.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Again, we talk about that streaming profitability turn around and ESPN bought the WWE rights.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so which is a big money maker.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so they hope to be a growth vector moving forward within their sports realm.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And then along with that, right, they had streaming operating income increasing, they had Hulu's integration plan, they had a potential joint venture in sports, they're a good thing on the horizon for Disney.

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[SPEAKER_06]: They had a rough couple years.

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[SPEAKER_06]: They underperformed their industry by 62% in 2021.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The 2024 was saw, 23.3% return on that year, about 4% this year, underperforming by 3.8% their industry over the past 72 weeks, up 30.98%.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I think that one of the issues here is that Disney's main source of revenue is selling that IPD.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And people tend to cut back on experiences, which makes up 37% of their revenue in times of economic stress.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We're seeing a resilient consumer, but we're also seeing you deteriorating jobs market and potential inflationary pressures.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We didn't necessarily see that within PPI today, but there is a potential cost increase on the horizon.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so you can expect that with that, with the deteriorating economy, Disney doesn't do as well in that type of scenario.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Over the short-term, I would be really interested to see what the outcome is of that joint sports venture.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Over the medium-term, you really have to see what the theme park and cruise growth looks like.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It has been moving sideways for three, four months now, right?

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[SPEAKER_06]: We did have a big dip in April though, a whole market dip right there.

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[SPEAKER_06]: this dipped even more and then it's kind of clawed its way backwards moving sideways.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I think that it's still trading in a pretty reasonable valuation 18 times forward looking earnings price to book value 1.9 times price to cash flow 11 times and growth is starting to pick up a little bit in some segments that have been losing the money.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So I don't think that Disney is necessarily a sell right now but I think you got to see some sort of directional movement before you want to put more into it.

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[SPEAKER_06]: That is Disney Corporation, the Walt Disney Company,

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[SPEAKER_06]: Got a lot of ground cover in the next 45 minutes or so, so here's a little bit of what we have planned.

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[SPEAKER_06]: My main focus point concerns this question.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The 2026 social security cola will a 2.7% increase be enough to outrun inflation.

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[SPEAKER_06]: In this segment, we'll break down the estimated 2.7% cost of living adjustment for 2026, and explore why experts are concerned that this moderate boost may not be enough to cover rising expenses for retirees.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Also, we'll touch on a recent mining deal, showing why even though copper prices have been struggling a little bit over the past year or so, the world is still has an insatiable desire for that industrial metal.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Also, the primary driver of market returns undeniably over the past two years has been the AI secular growth theme.

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[SPEAKER_06]: What happens if it blows up?

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[SPEAKER_06]: And should we have time at the end of show?

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[SPEAKER_06]: We'll touch on how shares in Bitcoin treasury companies.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Not doing too well right now.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Some of them trading underneath the value of the assets that they own.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We also have some voice-mate questions ready to play including one on toast ink, TIG or TOST, and Quonix building products corporation, TIG or NX, as well as some questions that came in from the comment section of the Investocking YouTube channel, and hopefully more live calls like said any time throughout the show.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Go into a quick break, please remember that you can call any time and leave your questions on the Investock Voice Bank, and if you're listening via our live stream or on AM-1220 in the Bay Area, give me a call now at 88899 chart.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Up next, a little comment on today's market activity.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Get ready for an all new Invest talk, wealth webinar, beyond the Mag 7.

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[SPEAKER_04]: How to identify AI opportunities across sectors.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Just in Klein and Luka Raro are going to help you move past the familiar names to identify the key opportunities for investment in the real AI revolution.

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[SPEAKER_04]: They'll be talking about the energy grid, data center infrastructure, and how AI is boosting profits in a wide range of industries.

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[SPEAKER_04]: The All-New Investalk Wealth webinar, happening online, September 30th from 1 to 2pm Pacific Time.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Seats are limited, so register now at Investalk.com.

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[SPEAKER_04]: There's value in every Invest Talk podcast, so call in Vestalk, 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Millions of downloads have proved there's value in every Invest Talk podcast.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Call anytime 24-7 Invest Talk, 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_06]: talk a little bit about the market today on this Wednesday, US stocks mixed overall.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The Dow was down 48 basis points, S&P 500 up 30, Nasdaq up 3 Russell 2000 down 6.

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[SPEAKER_06]: King, spite of that mixed movement, the S&P and Nasdaq's.

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[SPEAKER_06]: still closed at fresh record highs.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Some of the best performers on the day included energy names, semis, machinery, ad chemicals, airlines, and investment banks.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Big tech overall mixed in video, stronger, but Apple, Amazon, some of the notable declinders overall.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Big move on the day in Oracle, though the software space generally weaker, besides them, other underperformers included hospitals, managed care,

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[SPEAKER_06]: Choosing a bit firmer, you'd see some curve flattening it again, the yields down 1 to 4 basis points across the curve.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Dollar Index, up 10 basis points, gold, finished little change on the day.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Kuitoile settled up 1.7%.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Not a lot in terms of moving pieces, we did get the high profile tailwind from the monster 359% year over your surge in Oracle's RPO.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Other bullish pieces included, again, some more consumer resilience out of the conference updates.

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[SPEAKER_06]: More easing expectations from the feddy to your ramp after the cooler august ppi print is also pretty strong treasury auction taking a bit of pressure off of treasury supply fears some of the bullish pieces though some hawkish trade deadline threats that have a hundred percent tariff on china and india for buying Russian oil.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Some calls that odds with the Supreme Court supporting for Trump's tariffs also underpriced as well as ramp up in mid-East tensions, and just season with technical issues.

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[SPEAKER_06]: On the macro front headline, August, PPI dropped 10 basis point this month of a month versus the street expectation for a 30 basis point rise.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Core PPI also down 10 basis points against a 30 basis point consensus, July's core reading also revised down as well.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Looking ahead, August CPI and initial claims will be out on Thursday, and round and out the week on Friday will be the preliminary university of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations for September.

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[SPEAKER_06]: All right, we got another live call.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I love it.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Two live calls early in the show.

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[SPEAKER_06]: This one from Santa Cruz, our friend Thomas, who's a question about eBay?

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[SPEAKER_07]: Yeah, so I called it in a a while ago.

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[SPEAKER_07]: I was a holder of eBay, and I know that it has gone up, and I did regretably sell it.

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[SPEAKER_07]: You guys ended up playing my calling question.

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[SPEAKER_07]: I left a voicemail asking about it.

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[SPEAKER_07]: And basically, I'm looking to get back in,

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[SPEAKER_07]: Um, I know that you guys being that you play that you're obviously interested in it.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Um, I know that you guys talked.

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[SPEAKER_07]: You're going to have your, uh, AI webinar coming up.

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[SPEAKER_07]: But I was just wondering if you give us a tip that early.

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[SPEAKER_07]: If this is kind of, uh, a company, and I know that Justin mentioned that, uh, companies are going to be able to, uh, with AI software is get better prices.

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[SPEAKER_07]: And I was just wondering if your thought process would be maybe this would be a company that would benefit from, um,

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[SPEAKER_07]: those online programs that can find the best prices and I was wondering if that was part of your thought process, but mainly I'm asking for a price point to try to get back in.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, of course.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So eBay is one of the original, I would say, online commerce companies.

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[SPEAKER_06]: They have a platform where you can auction things, you can buy things, they operate, really internationally.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Interestingly enough, 16% of the revenue comes from just advertising.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So a little bit of the diversified stream there.

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[SPEAKER_06]: But 51% from the United States, 15% from the UK, 11% from China.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now, you today, it's up 47.36% up 51% over the past 52 weeks, pretty impressive numbers there.

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[SPEAKER_06]: They did have a Q2, beat on revenue and earnings for share, big, strong growth within that ad revenue, and also some launching of their AI tools which have helped with their fashion positioning and maybe some recent news about an integration within Facebook marketplace, obviously meta a big spender on AI recently as well.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now, that's something that's happening over the past six months, right?

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[SPEAKER_06]: Over the next couple months, their big focus is like you mentioned that AI adoption.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Within the wealth webinar, we're going to really focus on a couple categories.

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[SPEAKER_06]: On the infrastructure, industrial infrastructure, required for artificial intelligence to be successful.

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[SPEAKER_06]: On the picks and shovel businesses as well, right?

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[SPEAKER_06]: Energy and Dust Reels.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And then also on the beneficiaries that you may not be thinking about.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now, this is definitely one of them.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Using those AI tools for targeted ads, taking in user data, learning about users, improving the efficiency of your ads fantastic.

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[SPEAKER_06]: they have AI powered cellular tools that they are trying to implement fully as well.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so they certainly are one of those companies that does stand to benefit from what we have been talking about.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The revenue growth, although flat over the past five years, started to pick up again the past three years, that from 10 billion to about 11 billion, as their margins are expanding as well.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so this positive performance has put them in a position where they're training about 15.9 times for looking earnings a bit above their average.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Price to book it about nine times, price to cash flow about 20 times.

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[SPEAKER_06]: eBay is one of those names that we have been looking at internally because we like this name.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We think that it is a leader in its space.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We like the amount that it has been spending on refining its stream of ad revenue.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And we think that over the long term, it really stands to benefit from that.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Even with this run-up though, it seems still to be at a pretty reasonable valuation.

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[SPEAKER_06]: If you wanted to get into it, I think this is a pretty solid level right here, though.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I would certainly start to DCA in here, given the volatility surrounding its business.

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[SPEAKER_06]: If you think about ad revenue and marketplace revenue, both of those kind of affected by the consumer's ability to spend.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Because of that, I think entering slowly around these levels is probably a good call.

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[SPEAKER_06]: That is eBay to your EBAY.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Going to do break, please remember that you can call any time and leave your question on the Investock Voice Bank, or if you're listening via our live stream, call now at 888-99-Chart.

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[SPEAKER_04]: In Vestock, tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Vestock on our YouTube channel.

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[SPEAKER_06]: No, my main focus point today concerns an important question that affects a lot of retirees.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And that is if the 2026 social security cost of living adjustment, which is expected to be around 2.7%, will be enough to outrun inflation.

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[SPEAKER_06]: That 2026 cola, as it's called, is projected to be about 2.7% slightly above the 2.5% increase retirees received in the year 2025.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now that estimate comes from the senior citizens league following July inflation data from the bureau of labor statistics.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now, they're not the only ones that are estimated and this the ARP is also expecting a similar increase citing stable inflation transfer most of 2025.

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[SPEAKER_06]: But the official number will be announced later this year.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Right, these are just estimates.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The official number is always released by the Social Security Administration around October, in this case October 2025.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And that's because it's based on inflation data from July of 2024.

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[SPEAKER_06]: through a rather 25th of September at 225.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I'm sorry, September, September.

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[SPEAKER_06]: My brain is going around places.

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[SPEAKER_06]: July's CPI showed 2.7% annual inflation, which is unchanged for the month of June, which means that inflation is below the 3% that we saw in early 2025.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now, this is the problem here with this cost of living adjustment.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Nicole is based upon backward-looking data.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It's based upon how inflation actually affected

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[SPEAKER_06]: Historically, but it is trying to solve a problem that is contending with what the cost might be for consumers on a for-looking basis.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so while some believe that the 2.7% is what the number is going to be, many agree that that made us fall short, especially if inflation accelerates into the end of the year or even

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[SPEAKER_06]: The other problem with this is, as we know, we hear this all the time.

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[SPEAKER_06]: People call in and say, Luke Justin, those inflation numbers are not real.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I pay so much more than what those inflation numbers say, is that CPI, PPI, all these numbers, don't accurately reflect our experiences, right?

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[SPEAKER_06]: There's so many things that go into them.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So many things that go into them.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Not all of us are trying to use car every year, use car sales, use car prices, effect, inflation.

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[SPEAKER_06]: rents, effect inflation, and all those are trying to buy new homes that's on an expense we all face, energy, all these things, and so having to use that to try and describe an adjustment for a group of people is kind of where the difficulty lies here.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It doesn't accurately reflect.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The real expense, especially for housing and healthcare and food that senior citizens face,

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[SPEAKER_06]: In 2025, the average retirees saw a $49 month benefit boost, bringing average checks to $2,000 to $5 for retired workers, and herein lies the issue for people who were far away from retirement.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It is difficult to pay for your ongoing expenses with the benefits that you get from social security alone.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so if you are far enough of a way such that you can utilize the time to save outside of this social security benefit, it is certainly in the best interest for your financial future.

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[SPEAKER_06]: All righty, let's pivot back to the investor voice bank for this question that came earlier on 80 to 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Hi, I am calling of a data bionic sticker BB and X. I currently hold a small portion of

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[SPEAKER_01]: Just looking to see if you can give some insight on this company, thank you.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The ticker is BB and X, and the company is Beta Bionics Inc.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Beta Bionics is a commercial stage medical devices company.

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[SPEAKER_06]: They're probably focused on insulin delivery.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Their flagship product is called the Ilet Bionic Pancreus, and it's an automated FDA cleared insulin delivery system.

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[SPEAKER_06]: 100% of the revenue comes from the United States of America.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And it has about $5 billion in debt over the past three years since it started trading.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It has not been paying down its debt.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It has, in fact, been growing its debt levels.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Revenue.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Obviously, growing at a massive clip, something you see typically with these early stage biomedical companies, be they devices or engineering companies,

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[SPEAKER_06]: And, as I expected to see, not making any money at all whatsoever.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Negative 367% was the net margin in 2023, 84% in the red last year projected to be 89% in the red this year.

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[SPEAKER_06]: With the past three months, we did see a bit of an IPO surge, you did see raised guidance, they're having a bit of integration with one of the larger players in the space habit.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And revenue growth, though, has really not outpaced some of those high, high, high losses.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It IPO'd was this IPO here.

21:07.461 --> 21:08.742
[SPEAKER_06]: 35 January 2025.

21:10.815 --> 21:13.377
[SPEAKER_06]: And so it falls into the category of two reasons why wouldn't buy it.

21:13.497 --> 21:19.081
[SPEAKER_06]: One, because historically speaking, and there's a little bit of bias here because you only remember the big IPOs that did well.

21:19.541 --> 21:24.224
[SPEAKER_06]: Storically speaking, most IPOs under perform in their first year of trading.

21:24.744 --> 21:24.945
[SPEAKER_06]: Why?

21:25.025 --> 21:29.387
[SPEAKER_06]: Well, there's a little bit of price discovery also after certain point insiders can sell their shares.

21:29.688 --> 21:31.609
[SPEAKER_06]: That's the number reason reason number one I wouldn't buy it.

21:31.829 --> 21:32.970
[SPEAKER_06]: Don't buy IPOs with any year.

21:33.350 --> 21:33.830
[SPEAKER_06]: General rule.

21:34.251 --> 21:35.832
[SPEAKER_06]: Number two, it's not making any money.

21:36.372 --> 21:43.334
[SPEAKER_06]: This company is not making money, it's revenues are growing, but it has not really kept up pace all the money it's thrown out there, that's why it's taking on a lot of debt.

21:44.214 --> 21:47.975
[SPEAKER_06]: So for now, it's stay away from BB and X that is beta bionics.

21:49.936 --> 21:57.378
[SPEAKER_06]: Moving into our next break, our Invest talk phone lines never close, 88899 chart is the number coming up soon.

21:57.438 --> 22:00.499
[SPEAKER_06]: I will answer a new YouTube comments section question.

22:14.462 --> 22:21.347
[SPEAKER_04]: Get ready for an all-new Invest Talk, wealth webinar, beyond the Mag7.

22:21.847 --> 22:26.231
[SPEAKER_04]: How to identify AI opportunities across sectors.

22:26.911 --> 22:32.535
[SPEAKER_04]: Happening online, September 30th from 1 to 2pm Pacific Time.

22:33.036 --> 22:37.459
[SPEAKER_04]: Seats are limited, so register now at InvestTalk.com.

22:37.479 --> 22:40.241
[SPEAKER_08]: Hi there, Justin Luke.

22:40.421 --> 22:42.162
[SPEAKER_08]: This is Matt from Minneapolis.

22:44.680 --> 22:46.001
[SPEAKER_08]: Love everything you guys do.

22:46.101 --> 22:47.082
[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you very much.

22:47.903 --> 22:51.446
[SPEAKER_08]: I have a question on a stock that I've owned for quite a while here.

22:51.466 --> 22:55.269
[SPEAKER_08]: Dickersonville is TOST toast.

22:55.830 --> 23:04.657
[SPEAKER_08]: You know, the electronic company I believe it's been doing a lot with restaurants and stuff with a digital ordering and stuff like that.

23:04.677 --> 23:08.160
[SPEAKER_08]: Headed for over a year, made some real good money in it.

23:08.801 --> 23:10.662
[SPEAKER_08]: I've become bored with it because it hasn't

23:12.980 --> 23:15.702
[SPEAKER_08]: I asked three, four months or so, it's been in the 40s.

23:15.802 --> 23:30.230
[SPEAKER_08]: If you guys see a feature in this, I'm wondering if we a good tent to dump it and put the money into a GLD for gold or maybe into a reach or something like that to get some growth out of the money.

23:31.010 --> 23:39.352
[SPEAKER_08]: I'm afraid though to sell reason in this because I've sold a lot of stuff too soon, glossed myself a lot of gains that I would have had otherwise.

23:39.612 --> 23:41.913
[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you, be looking for your feedback on the show.

23:41.993 --> 23:42.673
[SPEAKER_08]: Have a good day.

23:43.153 --> 23:48.515
[SPEAKER_06]: Figure TOST toast in kind of Justin likes this name very much.

23:48.755 --> 23:53.356
[SPEAKER_06]: It is a cloud-based restaurant management point of sale system.

23:53.996 --> 23:55.177
[SPEAKER_06]: So the goal here is...

23:55.977 --> 24:11.240
[SPEAKER_06]: you can reduce costs of restaurants by having people ordering things on their phone via the app or have QR code that bring up a menu you order that way, essentially you're lowering overhead and this is filling the gap in a way.

24:11.941 --> 24:13.342
[SPEAKER_06]: Revenue growth here has been pretty solid.

24:13.362 --> 24:21.244
[SPEAKER_06]: I've seen this company operating all over the place they're software up from 665 million in 2019 to 4.96 billion in 2024.

24:21.564 --> 24:28.767
[SPEAKER_06]: But growth has slowed a little bit and margins haven't really expanded as well as a lot of people hoped.

24:29.347 --> 24:36.330
[SPEAKER_06]: They first made money in 2024 and that margin point 4% up to 4.8% as where it's projected to be by the end of this year.

24:37.230 --> 24:41.293
[SPEAKER_06]: And so now they're still trading at about 36.3 times forward looking earnings.

24:41.353 --> 24:44.936
[SPEAKER_06]: Now, this is going to be skewed because in the last five years, well, they didn't make any money.

24:44.956 --> 24:46.858
[SPEAKER_06]: And so these numbers are going to look crazy to you.

24:47.498 --> 24:51.641
[SPEAKER_06]: The price cat fell still 44 times price to sales, 4.5 times.

24:51.681 --> 24:56.865
[SPEAKER_06]: Still a little bit expensive here for what looks to be some slowing growth.

24:57.706 --> 24:59.567
[SPEAKER_06]: Over the past year, this name has done really well.

24:59.647 --> 25:13.932
[SPEAKER_06]: Up 68.50% ongoing expansion across locations decently strong from a technical perspective, as well, your data is starting to break down a little bit.

25:14.592 --> 25:20.314
[SPEAKER_06]: Below that level, below that 45 level, and started to head downward quite a bit.

25:20.334 --> 25:23.095
[SPEAKER_06]: I think here though, yes, I do think there's a lot of growth here.

25:24.123 --> 25:29.189
[SPEAKER_06]: And I say that because, you know, I don't necessarily like the business at what it does, right?

25:29.209 --> 25:34.094
[SPEAKER_06]: I like the personal touch of hostess and a waiter and all these things, right?

25:34.594 --> 25:39.239
[SPEAKER_06]: I want to be one day of the guy that walks into a restaurant and goes, hey, looks here, but this is now this company's back.

25:40.013 --> 25:41.053
[SPEAKER_06]: What's company's about streamlining?

25:41.273 --> 25:42.414
[SPEAKER_06]: It's companies about efficiency.

25:42.714 --> 25:47.496
[SPEAKER_06]: This company is about making it easy for the customer to get the product, in this case, food that they want.

25:47.536 --> 25:49.096
[SPEAKER_06]: And I think they're doing a good job of it.

25:49.556 --> 25:58.479
[SPEAKER_06]: So if you're worried about potentially missing out on some gains, but you still wanna look elsewhere and gold is a great place to look, maybe you take half your position, you're up a lot.

25:59.040 --> 25:59.780
[SPEAKER_06]: You take profit.

26:00.320 --> 26:08.663
[SPEAKER_06]: You leave a little bit in there, just in case so you don't ever grits diversifying is always a good thing to do whenever you are profitable.

26:09.547 --> 26:20.769
[SPEAKER_06]: Now, before we get to our next question while I have your attention, I want to tell you about a new series that has debuted on our Invest Talk at YouTube channel, and that series is called Invest Talk Innovators.

26:21.510 --> 26:27.151
[SPEAKER_06]: In every episode, Justin and I will be bringing you insightful interviews with company leaders, founders, and visionaries.

26:27.831 --> 26:32.132
[SPEAKER_06]: For the first episode, I spoke with Heron Bought to the mind behind Inside Ownership.

26:32.892 --> 26:40.176
[SPEAKER_06]: He highlights how his philosophy of investing in founder-led businesses can offer real advantage and passes on some practical tips that you don't want to miss.

26:41.116 --> 26:48.980
[SPEAKER_06]: To watch our full interviews, visit our Invest Talk YouTube channel today and stay tuned for more conversations with more Invest Talk innovators.

26:50.621 --> 26:54.022
[SPEAKER_06]: Now that that has been done, why don't we answer another caller question.

26:54.743 --> 26:55.683
[SPEAKER_02]: Hey, Invest Talk.

26:55.883 --> 26:58.645
[SPEAKER_02]: I was hoping you guys could give me your opinion on Q1X.

26:59.715 --> 27:02.916
[SPEAKER_02]: building products, the ticker is NX.

27:03.436 --> 27:09.537
[SPEAKER_02]: I bought it around like 18-ish measures had earnings and it's come down quite a bit.

27:09.877 --> 27:11.518
[SPEAKER_02]: I have it in a Roth IRA right now.

27:12.298 --> 27:21.940
[SPEAKER_02]: It does look like, you know, historically, it's kind of up and down, but from what I can see the future earnings still look like, you know, there's some value in it at this price.

27:22.461 --> 27:27.582
[SPEAKER_02]: Looking to see if you guys would continue to hold it, or if you guys would get out, and I'll listen on the show.

27:27.762 --> 27:28.002
[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks,

27:28.852 --> 27:41.456
[SPEAKER_06]: Quonix building products, the manufacturer components sold to equipment manufacturer manufacturers talking as tough sometimes within the building products industry.

27:42.096 --> 27:48.858
[SPEAKER_06]: It is a 700 million, not billion with a billion with an M dollar market cap company.

27:50.443 --> 27:54.045
[SPEAKER_06]: So rather small, and it's got more debt than it's market.

27:54.065 --> 27:57.927
[SPEAKER_06]: Long-term debt, 855 million dollars.

27:57.967 --> 28:00.128
[SPEAKER_06]: It's net margin, super skinny.

28:00.168 --> 28:02.490
[SPEAKER_06]: Projected to be 10 basis points this year.

28:03.743 --> 28:09.644
[SPEAKER_06]: Eva Demargin 12.8% this year net income, 200 million.

28:10.285 --> 28:24.988
[SPEAKER_06]: And so, with the past three months, you saw I pretty sharp decline in the stock, 24.72% as you saw, revenue growth, starting to slow down a little bit within this company.

28:25.368 --> 28:29.509
[SPEAKER_06]: Geographically, they are pretty well diversified, 73% of the revenue comes through United States.

28:29.529 --> 28:30.509
[SPEAKER_06]: 21% of the revenue comes from Europe.

28:33.930 --> 28:47.282
[SPEAKER_06]: With about six months, they had some mixed quarterly profits as well, from the acquisition of time in the company that they acquired, but I think one of the things that concerns me the most is those debt levels relative to the size of this company.

28:47.302 --> 28:54.387
[SPEAKER_06]: If your net income is $2 million the highest you've ever had in the past five, six years is $88 million and you're carrying that much debt.

28:55.188 --> 29:02.492
[SPEAKER_06]: with really not much cash on hand, not a lot of assets on your balance sheet, that becomes a big concern to me.

29:02.552 --> 29:05.894
[SPEAKER_06]: This could be why this company is trading at 7.6 times for looking earnings.

29:06.374 --> 29:15.720
[SPEAKER_06]: Point four times sales along with some of the cyclical issues of the types of things that it sells, wood manufacturing,

29:17.722 --> 29:20.965
[SPEAKER_06]: and the demand for housing and building in general.

29:21.665 --> 29:26.809
[SPEAKER_06]: I think you put yourself in a position where, okay, there's a reason why this company is down 41% over the past year.

29:26.869 --> 29:37.978
[SPEAKER_06]: So for now, I would probably stay a bit away due to those debt management issues and due to some lackluster thus far integration from some of their strategies.

29:38.018 --> 29:41.821
[SPEAKER_06]: That is, an ex-quanx building products corporation.

29:42.735 --> 29:57.505
[SPEAKER_06]: All right, so one interesting aspect of the past decade, that's five years I would say, is how essential copper has become to not just where it was before the industrial life blood of the global economy,

29:58.365 --> 30:15.663
[SPEAKER_06]: But other trends as well, green energy, artificial intelligence, and in this case, rising global military spending, and three of these mega trends, have really driven a large demand for copper, aidescent data centers, require enormous electricity.

30:16.384 --> 30:23.487
[SPEAKER_06]: that electricity requires enormous amounts of cooling, and that is really fueling copper's demand across the board.

30:23.847 --> 30:30.550
[SPEAKER_06]: Bloomberg NEF projects 4.3 million metric tons will be needed of copper by the year 2035.

30:30.830 --> 30:33.951
[SPEAKER_06]: The military demand is surging as well.

30:33.991 --> 30:36.092
[SPEAKER_06]: Copper is needed for weapons for vehicles.

30:37.090 --> 30:39.551
[SPEAKER_06]: for infrastructure projects.

30:40.191 --> 30:42.152
[SPEAKER_06]: Pressure from NATO, pressure from U.S.

30:42.212 --> 30:45.113
[SPEAKER_06]: tariffs are also amplifying a lot of these trends.

30:45.153 --> 30:49.534
[SPEAKER_06]: People are trying to shore up supplies, given the national security implications here.

30:49.955 --> 30:51.415
[SPEAKER_06]: And all of the same time, right?

30:51.515 --> 30:54.276
[SPEAKER_06]: Copper supply remains very tight with a deficit of 669,000 tons.

30:56.837 --> 30:57.437
[SPEAKER_06]: expected by 2028.

30:57.477 --> 31:01.859
[SPEAKER_06]: And what that has done is spurred some big M&A activity.

31:01.919 --> 31:07.582
[SPEAKER_06]: Specifically, we saw a proposed $53 billion deal between Anglo-American and tech.

31:08.303 --> 31:12.985
[SPEAKER_06]: Copper's price rose pretty sharply in 2025, despite these carefree-related volatility.

31:13.986 --> 31:26.651
[SPEAKER_06]: You guys copper prices, spike to mid-year due to that tear threat and push for domestic mining, but alternatives like superconducting wire remain a bit niche, meaning that copper is still an essential part of all of these things.

31:28.071 --> 31:34.394
[SPEAKER_06]: One trend that we've also seen in the past decade is how loose our grid infrastructure is.

31:35.314 --> 31:40.616
[SPEAKER_06]: Grid infrastructure upgrades alone will require 14.9 million tons of copper by the year 2030, up 19 percent.

31:42.781 --> 31:42.961
[SPEAKER_06]: from 2025.

31:43.001 --> 31:49.048
[SPEAKER_06]: It is also not easy to put new minds online.

31:49.088 --> 31:57.238
[SPEAKER_06]: Regularly, the toy delays plague new minds is shown by the stalled Arizona project, the Drew criticism, from the administration, despite the 4,000 job potential.

31:57.959 --> 31:59.381
[SPEAKER_06]: And so here lies the problem.

31:59.901 --> 32:00.722
[SPEAKER_06]: A lot of demand.

32:01.808 --> 32:06.311
[SPEAKER_06]: not much supply and difficult to bring supply more online.

32:07.091 --> 32:08.192
[SPEAKER_06]: We even say it quite some time.

32:08.772 --> 32:15.936
[SPEAKER_06]: Even though you've seen some copper companies underperform over the past couple years, the demand for copper is undeniable.

32:16.556 --> 32:26.482
[SPEAKER_06]: Be it because of AI infrastructure, electrification, or military demand, as a medium and long-term play, copper is a good way to go.

32:27.618 --> 32:30.321
[SPEAKER_06]: No, what do we drop in another listener question now?

32:30.961 --> 32:33.544
[SPEAKER_09]: Hey, can you look at the stock ball?

32:33.804 --> 32:35.786
[SPEAKER_09]: Do you like the basketball, right?

32:35.906 --> 32:41.692
[SPEAKER_09]: Ball canning jars, BALL, and tell me if it's a good buy.

32:42.152 --> 32:43.353
[SPEAKER_09]: And thank you so much.

32:43.834 --> 32:47.697
[SPEAKER_06]: Let's take a look at the stock ball, BALL, like basketball.

32:48.738 --> 32:52.040
[SPEAKER_06]: is unsurprisingly, ball corporation.

32:52.080 --> 32:56.182
[SPEAKER_06]: So they supply aluminum packaging for beverages, personal care, and household products.

32:56.863 --> 33:06.188
[SPEAKER_06]: They operate through a couple segments of their business, one being the beverage packaging, which focuses on North and Central America, the South American,

33:06.828 --> 33:09.349
[SPEAKER_06]: in Mia and a little bit of other, right?

33:09.369 --> 33:10.389
[SPEAKER_06]: And pretty evenly split.

33:10.809 --> 33:15.990
[SPEAKER_06]: The North and Central American is only about 40% of the revenue, 29% comes from Mia.

33:16.550 --> 33:19.631
[SPEAKER_06]: And then another 17% comes from South America.

33:20.591 --> 33:23.932
[SPEAKER_06]: It is a fairly, you know, fairly big company, right?

33:23.952 --> 33:27.273
[SPEAKER_06]: 13 billion, that's a solid mid-cap name right there in terms of debt levels.

33:28.113 --> 33:32.714
[SPEAKER_06]: A much debt relative to its size, 5.5 billion dollars in debt.

33:33.194 --> 33:41.217
[SPEAKER_06]: Free cash flow though, all over the place, negative, positive, negative positive, that operating cash flow really on a downward trend projected to grow into this year.

33:41.837 --> 33:43.777
[SPEAKER_06]: And margins projected to expand as well, right?

33:43.797 --> 33:51.759
[SPEAKER_06]: We had a pandemic level peak net margin of 6.3%, and has really touched anywhere near that though, it is projected to be 7.7% this upcoming year.

33:54.791 --> 33:55.832
[SPEAKER_06]: Now, how does performance look?

33:55.892 --> 33:59.116
[SPEAKER_06]: Well, down 22.48% over the past 52 weeks down almost, you know, 9.18% year to date down 9% over the past three months.

33:59.136 --> 34:00.758
[SPEAKER_06]: A lot of that is a bit of a...

34:09.688 --> 34:12.189
[SPEAKER_06]: bit of mixed earnings over the past six months.

34:12.629 --> 34:26.616
[SPEAKER_06]: They have had strong cash for the headhead decent returns going back a little bit heading into, though I would say August, heading into August for it started to turn around after really not doing so well coming out of liberation day.

34:27.617 --> 34:34.380
[SPEAKER_06]: But I think that one of the main reasons here that this isn't doing too out of just cyclical market demand.

34:35.120 --> 34:38.162
[SPEAKER_06]: And that's something that is often hard to escape.

34:39.195 --> 34:43.439
[SPEAKER_06]: And so given that we're not really seeing is the solid revenue growth trend, right?

34:43.479 --> 34:46.841
[SPEAKER_06]: It is peaking back up a bit, but it's just all over the place.

34:46.861 --> 34:48.123
[SPEAKER_06]: The volatility here is crazy.

34:48.963 --> 34:59.993
[SPEAKER_06]: Revenue peaked in 2022, down sharply into 2024, up again this year in consistent business that is trading at the low end of its valuation for a reason.

35:00.053 --> 35:07.320
[SPEAKER_06]: So for now, I'd probably stay away from ball corporation despite the diversity to your B.A.L.L.

35:08.081 --> 35:14.327
[SPEAKER_06]: It's keeping things moving and pivot back to the invest talk voice bank and listen to another question that came in to eight to eight and ninety nine chart.

35:14.778 --> 35:26.409
[SPEAKER_11]: This is James from Texas calling on ticker symbol DOV over, I've had it in my portfolio, but I haven't a position for the last.

35:26.429 --> 35:36.439
[SPEAKER_11]: Plus, every month, it's about March, just wanting to check to see what your thoughts are on the company, if it's not more holding or maybe even potentially adding to.

35:36.459 --> 35:36.959
[SPEAKER_11]: Thank you.

35:37.902 --> 35:51.526
[SPEAKER_06]: D-O-V-Dover Corporation, it is an industrial company, their manufacturer and solutions provider delivering innovative equipment and components, consumable supplies and after market parts, energy and fuel and imaging.

35:52.267 --> 35:56.228
[SPEAKER_06]: An identification pumps and processes, climate and sustainable technologies.

35:56.268 --> 35:59.049
[SPEAKER_06]: This is what this business does.

35:59.089 --> 36:02.510
[SPEAKER_06]: It is a diversified global industrial company.

36:02.990 --> 36:05.312
[SPEAKER_06]: Got more than 7 billion in annual revenue.

36:05.332 --> 36:16.124
[SPEAKER_06]: In fact, revenue has been on a pretty solid growth pace since the last year, though over the past five years, up and down, right, 2022 solid year, but this just looks like the industrial cycle to me.

36:17.247 --> 36:30.138
[SPEAKER_06]: But 3.2% in the red over the past 52 weeks down 6.38% year to date margins though even though revenue has slowed margins have remained pretty solid 18.1% net margin in 2024 projected to be 16.1% net margin this year.

36:34.462 --> 36:42.148
[SPEAKER_06]: In terms of valuation, it's sitting at about its average price to cash flow, about 32 times price to sales, about three times.

36:42.769 --> 36:53.017
[SPEAKER_06]: Of the past three months, they did have earnings per share, rise 16 percent, be the estimate by about six cents per share on the bottom line, on the top line.

36:53.537 --> 36:55.939
[SPEAKER_06]: just shy 10 million is where they beat that there.

36:56.380 --> 36:57.641
[SPEAKER_06]: They did a strategic acquisition.

36:57.661 --> 36:58.782
[SPEAKER_06]: They've hiked their dividend.

36:59.222 --> 37:03.046
[SPEAKER_06]: They effectively divested from a portion of their business.

37:03.386 --> 37:05.808
[SPEAKER_06]: They really didn't fit into the company as a whole.

37:06.409 --> 37:08.311
[SPEAKER_06]: And they've had solid earnings growth and margins.

37:08.431 --> 37:12.495
[SPEAKER_06]: It's sustained outperformance relative to their peers in 2024, I perform by 3.3% having a bit of a rough time this year.

37:17.470 --> 37:18.210
[SPEAKER_06]: Well, it's like they're casual.

37:18.230 --> 37:19.852
[SPEAKER_06]: The trend looks solid, right?

37:19.872 --> 37:21.513
[SPEAKER_06]: They're operating cash flow.

37:22.053 --> 37:26.476
[SPEAKER_06]: A bit over the place as well, growing from 740 to 1.3 billion this year.

37:27.637 --> 37:31.679
[SPEAKER_06]: Overall, I think that it looks like it might be trending in the right direction.

37:31.739 --> 37:36.082
[SPEAKER_06]: You do see the three-year trends on everything in terms of growth looking very solid.

37:36.482 --> 37:40.385
[SPEAKER_06]: And it's trading in a pretty reasonable valuation, 17.2 times forward looking earnings.

37:40.425 --> 37:41.045
[SPEAKER_06]: It's relatively strength.

37:41.726 --> 37:43.447
[SPEAKER_06]: Pretty good going back six years.

37:44.027 --> 37:46.689
[SPEAKER_06]: Could be a good time to pick up this name, especially.

37:48.034 --> 37:51.376
[SPEAKER_06]: If you're a long-term investor, waiting for that industrial cycle to pick back up again.

37:51.756 --> 37:54.598
[SPEAKER_06]: That is, dover corporation, to your D-O-V.

37:56.239 --> 37:56.879
[SPEAKER_06]: Go to New Break.

37:57.099 --> 38:00.721
[SPEAKER_06]: Please remember that you can call any time and leave your questions on an investor talk voice bank.

38:00.741 --> 38:05.544
[SPEAKER_06]: If you're listening to your live stream or on AM1220 radio in Silicon Valley, give me a call now at 80899 chart.

38:11.908 --> 38:13.790
[SPEAKER_10]: Got a question for Justin or Luke?

38:14.210 --> 38:16.052
[SPEAKER_10]: You're the best person to ask it.

38:16.292 --> 38:18.053
[SPEAKER_00]: I wanted to pick your ring about Apple.

38:18.334 --> 38:19.915
[SPEAKER_00]: What did you think about their earnings call?

38:20.215 --> 38:21.977
[SPEAKER_00]: They're just a good time to add to my position.

38:22.177 --> 38:23.338
[SPEAKER_10]: Call in Vestock.

38:23.358 --> 38:23.878
[SPEAKER_10]: 888-99 chart.

38:34.542 --> 38:42.484
[SPEAKER_04]: The Invest Talk phone lines never close, and now Luke Guerrero is here, taking your calls live.

38:43.125 --> 38:47.126
[SPEAKER_04]: Invest Talk 888-99 chart.

38:47.746 --> 39:00.910
[SPEAKER_03]: Justin Luke, calling in regards to tech resources limited, ticker symbol T-E-C-K, recent news in that merge with Anglo-America.

39:01.598 --> 39:13.608
[SPEAKER_03]: just curious on your thoughts, currently holding 5% in my portfolio, long-term fold, not completely sure what that entails in terms of the merge.

39:14.120 --> 39:20.065
[SPEAKER_03]: any advice on holding, selling, and what that could reflect with my current shares.

39:20.625 --> 39:20.965
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.

39:20.985 --> 39:24.428
[SPEAKER_06]: Yes, this is a great question because there are two types of mergers, right?

39:24.468 --> 39:27.931
[SPEAKER_06]: They're mergers that involve cash and they're mergers that involve stock.

39:28.011 --> 39:31.954
[SPEAKER_06]: Now, obviously, you can blend the two a bit, but this is a stock merger, right?

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[SPEAKER_06]: So Anglo-American is going to give stock in the newly formed entity to these shareholders of tech.

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[SPEAKER_06]: There may be some cash considerations, but the bulk of it is going to be a stock purchase, right?

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so if you want to continue to hold the new entity because you like to text exposure, you like to be exposure to copper, then frankly, just keep holding your shares.

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[SPEAKER_06]: There's a big pop on the announcement, meaning the market did like the idea of a merger of an acquisition.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I also read some news though that there are some shareholders who think it's a bit underpriced.

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[SPEAKER_06]: and there could be a bit of a bidding war potentially that is welcome between Anglo-American and another company that could benefit you as well.

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[SPEAKER_06]: The stock price could move up from there because of that.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now if it were a cash deal, I would say sell the shares.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Because if a company is trading in its cash deal terms, then you're effectively already holding the cash anyway.

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[SPEAKER_06]: But if your goal is to continue to hold on to this newly formed entity between these two companies holding on to your shares is a good way to go.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Alright, the last thing I want to talk about is how AI Mania has driven 21 trillion in U.S.

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[SPEAKER_06]: market cap gains since Chad GBT was released in 2022 with just 10 firms responsible for 55, 55% of an increase.

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[SPEAKER_06]: An investment in AI is surging.

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[SPEAKER_06]: accounted for all you as GDP growth in early 2025 and one third of all Western VC dollars year to date that is an insane sum of money revenue from generative AI though remains pretty small estimated it's just 50 billion dollars annually less than 2% of the 2.9 trillion projected data center spend through 2028

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[SPEAKER_06]: not solid returns there from a monetization perspective.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And so naturally, there's a lot of people warning a bubble like behavior with 95% of firms seeing zero return, zero on their AI investment.

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[SPEAKER_06]: History shows us.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We've seen it time and time again, tech bubbles are normal.

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[SPEAKER_06]: They often lead to long-term benefits, right?

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[SPEAKER_06]: The internet, there was a bubble, long-term benefit there, depending on who you ask.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Despite these short-term investor pain,

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[SPEAKER_06]: and so the AI boom spark was technological.

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[SPEAKER_06]: But some deregulation, some subsidies from government entities, they added a bit of a bubble risk to the picture, while capex is still accelerating, much of it going towards fast appreciating assets, like in video chips, not just because they wear out over time, which isn't the big concern here, but because along the technological curve, things become more advanced, they become depreciated more quickly, because they don't have the newest technology.

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[SPEAKER_06]: that is different from the past bubble, which tended to build longer lasting infrastructure.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Now, Big Tech is funding half of this from about cash flows.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So that does limit the systemic risk, the big risk in markets.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Come when people take an idea that was a good idea, they use it far too much and then they finance it with debt.

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[SPEAKER_06]: That is how you get systematic contagion within the system.

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[SPEAKER_06]: That's not necessarily what's happening here, but the capital that's being used is coming from pensions from insurers, from family offices, from individuals, and retail investors are heavily exposed equities.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Stocks make up 30% of households net worth, 30% more than that of the dot com peak in the year 2000.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So here lies the problem.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It could be that things are priced to perfection, and everything is a, okay, through the end, but if the AI hype collapses, economic fallout could be very sharp due to the wealth effect, and concentrated exposure to a few mega-caps stocks, be it directly invested in there.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We're having all of your wealth in the indices that they make up a very large part of can have disastrous consequences.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I'm Lou Guerrero, and that about does it for another episode of Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_06]: We thank you for listening, and we encourage you to tell your friends and family members about our free podcast downloads, which you can get at iTunes and Spotify, and while you're at it, go over to our YouTube channel, Invest Talk with two T's.

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