Concilio: [00:00:00] Hello and welcome to the latest edition of, uh, Concilio Better Places podcast, where I'm absolutely delighted Today we've gone international, um, and we have James Johnson, who is currently in New York and one of the founding partners of JL Partners.

James, thank you very much for joining us today.

James Johnson: so much international, but unfortunately, still the, still the English accent for your listeners to listen to hear, to not, not too exotic.

Concilio: Uh. A folkston half marathon t-shirt, which was discussing earlier, is very niche for, um, New York. Um, but maybe James, just a little bit about yourself and jail partners before, before we get into the, what we're here to talk about today.

James Johnson: So, uh, I started, um, uh, my career in. Politics, uh, by being the senior opinion research and strategy advisor to Prime Minister Theresa May.

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: uh, got that role after the 2017 election, which obviously did not go so well for the conservatives, despite them staying in power. Um, I came in and led the post-mortem into what went wrong that I presented to the cabinet, and I was in her senior team running polling focus [00:01:00] groups and the So what of that? Up until she left. Um, after, um, I left number 10, uh, I, uh, founded co-founded with my business partner, Dr. Tom Lubbock, the firm Jail Partners. We are a polling research strategy firm. Um, and, uh, as of 2023, I've been based out of, uh, the us uh, building the US company, uh, jail partners.

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: uh, and uh, most recently we were the most, uh, accurate pollster of the 2024 election.

Uh, one of the very few pollsters to, uh, project A win for Donald Trump.

Concilio: And so I was at Reform Conference, which is where I met you, but I think, I think it's quite interesting just to reflect on the American election there, because I imagine you were saying things, but a lot. People didn't necessarily want to hear certainly opinion forms, um, didn't want to hear, and I, I kind of got that vibe at the reform conferences.

You know, you are showing the facts, um, and people really need to understand reality of what's going on. And, and this is what brings us here today, is the rise of reform. Um, as [00:02:00] a national political force, we at Concilio, um, have been undertaken a number of briefings for clients, um, on this and struck me as, because there are only five, six or seven that keeps changing reform.

Mps with defections and PE and people even, they're not given as much void as others, such as liberal democrats who have 72 mps. But reform were the third largest party at the last general election. And I think what we're seeing now is a switch to actually the, they're using first pass to post very well to.

Probably manifest themselves in in parliament with a very large number of mps if the election was held tomorrow.

James Johnson: I think that's right and uh, you're absolutely right that being on that saying that Trump was gonna win was an exposed position. But you know, as

Concilio: Yes.

James Johnson: a

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: good, advisors at Concilio and we know as pollsters that. you always hedge and just say 50 50, when actually though that might be the fashionable thing to say, the reality is very different. Um, then you, you know, you're not providing insight and added value to clients. And I think, um, you know, it was [00:03:00] clear to us, and one of the things that I think is really important that we do as a firm, um, and, and have done, uh, and will continue to do is. the polling and the data analysis, but also getting out onto the ground with real voters, having those face-to-face conversations. That was something that in America allowed us to pick up what was really happening on the ground. And it's something I see in the UK too. You might look at some of these polls where reform is doing very well and you might think, how can that, uh, how can that be backed up on the ground? But when you go and have conversations with voters about their disenchantment, with levels of immigration, about their disenchantment with the mainstream traditional parties. It soon clicks. This is very real and I don't think it's going any, uh, away anytime soon.

Concilio: Thank, thank you, uh, for that over there, James. So what we're gonna do, you are going to, um, share your screen, um, and go through the presentation that I saw you give at Reform, which explains, you know, the rise of reform and how well they are doing. Um, and I think it'll be absolutely fascinating to, to people watching and listening to this.

James Johnson: Great stuff. Well, uh, hopefully you can see my screen there. [00:04:00] Um, and,

Concilio: Yes.

James Johnson: in with, um, with what we did. So, uh, this presentation, it takes into a few different, uh, it takes into account a few different data sources, um, put together by, uh. Us at JR Partners in partnership with, um, with Frederic Advisory Partners. And, uh, the most important thing is we ran a poll that ended, uh, just at the start of September. So a little old now, but we don't think much has changed since. Um, just giving that overall sense of where the parties are, what is the state of the parties in the UK today? um, we think that Reform has a 10 point lead over labor, um, reform on 32%, on 22% conservatives on 18%, not a million miles off. Doomed fourth place slot where the lib Dems are on 12. So I think the first thing to say is that this is a huge transformation from where we were at the general election. Um, labor pooled in 34% of the vote there. Um, uh, the conservatives close to 24 reformed down, uh, in the late teens. Clearly there has been a big turnaround in the last, uh, uh, [00:05:00] uh, 12 to 18 months since that election.

And we are saying that at the moment reform are the main beneficiaries. Now I wanna go back to your point. There is if there was an election tomorrow. That's the question phrasing we use here. Reform will do. Well. This is

Concilio: Okay.

James Johnson: this is a projection of

Concilio: Yes.

James Johnson: now. Plenty of time to run, but we think reform are in a very strong position.

Concilio: So many questions flow from this. I mean, I I what I find when we are giving our briefings on the current, um, electoral position, it's, it's a lot of people can't accept The conservative party is doing quite as badly as it is being shown in the polls, but also the, the drop in support in such a quick. A period of time for the Labor Party, is that quite unprecedented to see a party win now?

32% of the vote, a hundred percent of the power. Um, so, uh, there were quite a disconnect in, um, number of mps in Parliament and a percentage vote if we were under a proportional system. But even given that the drop in support for labor is quite unprecedented, only a year in surely.

James Johnson: It is significant. I think there, there are, [00:06:00] there are two ways of looking at this. I mean, on, on the one hand, uh, being down in the low twenties is a very bad place to be for any party. Um, and it is unprecedented in that regard to be quite so low quite so quickly. when you look at it in terms of the lead, that reform has a 10

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: for. You know, an opposition party at this stage in the Parliament is pretty normal for incumbent governments. you think of, uh,

Concilio: Okay.

James Johnson: um, uh, uh, labor was for most of the parliament under David Cameron, um, 2010 to

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: they would often have 10, 10 point leads. Um, so because we're in a multi-party system with a new entrant

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: Those numbers might look devastating, but actually, you know, being 10 points behind in some other polls, only being five points behind as. Horrific for labor as it might look. The party that I'd be really worried about is the conservatives here they are the natural, uh, party of opposition or have been for a [00:07:00] long time. They are the official opposition, but they are in the late teens in terms of support. And if they lose that challenge of status to labor, then. We really could be looking at the next election as a real extinction event for the conservatives. If they can't turn this around the last 12 months, we might not have had an election, but it has been a live election in practice for the voters on the right. And Kevin Badnock

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: won that contest. It's reform who have filled that gap. Um, they haven't wiped out the Tories, but goodness me, I would not wanna be looking at this. A Tory

Concilio: No. And, and we can see that by looking at the, by elections. Over the last year, um, reform have been winning a lot of seats for the conservative and labor, it must be said as well. I mean, in Wales it's quite, I always find it quite remarkable how well reform are doing in Wales, in in seats, which the conservative party, traditional center right party would.

Never dream of, of having a hope in and reform or winning them. So it, it is quite, quite the change coming, isn't it? Um, yeah, quite the change, but really, so what we're saying is it's the fact reform are [00:08:00] 10 points ahead is really the, the, the surprise not for an opposition party is 10 points ahead of an incumbent government a year in.

James Johnson: And you'll see in some of the slides later that you know, if you

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: over your closest opponent, then you've got a very good chance of getting a majority. And if it's a

Concilio: Right.

James Johnson: lead, you have a very good chance, even though reform only on 32%, they could win a barnstorming

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: numbers are replicated

Concilio: Yep. So just a reminder, what did labor get at the last general election? 34. Was it around?

James Johnson: When

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: uh, nationwide. Exactly.

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: So what, what, why have labor gone down? Uh, uh, this is the real sort of theme of our next slide. And, uh, we've gone back to the nineties, uh, word cloud data visualization, um, which we find really useful. We ask people, we ask the public representative sample of the public in that same poll, what are the biggest mistakes that the labor government have made? And I think the real takeaway here is how pivotal that winter fuel allowance change was. Even a year on more than [00:09:00] a year on from those

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: being made, people are still saying that they are. The key mistake, uh, that the government made and also in here is immigration. So there are frustrations about immigration, both legal and illegal, but really it looks like that winter fuel allowance has been taken as sort of totemic of who Labor stands for, and that has shed some labor support both to the left to parties like the Greens and the Lib Dems, direct to reform.

Concilio: And we don't really hear that mentioned certainly in, in the media much anymore Winter Fuel, but it's still there for the people you spoke to in Sep uh, lead up to the start of September. It's quite remarkable how it's not reported anymore

James Johnson: It,

Concilio: still there.

James Johnson: it is. And it's also remarkable how, uh, there was another poll, this, this month, I think by Lord Ashcroft, that also showed

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: that the

Concilio: Wow.

James Johnson: the same thing, the same sort of finding. So. These moments cut through for the public and it takes quite a lot to unbuckle them. Remember, labor has actually officially U-turned on this policy, but people haven't noticed the U-turn.

They only remember [00:10:00] what they saw. So

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: has had a seismic effect.

Concilio: Wow. Brilliant. Oh, that's, that's fascinating to see. And certainly immigration looks like it's kind of a second most mentioned, um, uh, there, which I guess is, is kind of not a surprise. Yeah. Um, pensioners and winter fuel. Okay. That's. That's really interesting to see. That's what's, you know, turning people off a labor party.

James Johnson: Absolutely. Absolutely. Now that's the negative. Why are people not voting labor, but why are people voting reform? So we asked, uh, people who either voted or are considering voting for reform, uh, sorry. Either would vote or start again. We asked people, uh, who are currently saying their vote reform or would consider doing so. What would they say are the main reasons to vote for the party? you can see there's a few things in here. The top result is that reform would stop the votes crossing the English channel. The second most popular is their policies to reduce overall immigration, their third is they're patriotic and stand up for Britain. what isn't

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: well. Actually, not a huge amount of people saying it's because they're an [00:11:00] alternative to the established mainstream. a lot of

Concilio: Yep. Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: uh, but you can see that they do think that they are likely to change things on immigration, which clearly is a huge priority for these voters and a, and a clear failing, as we saw on that last slide. About my, about

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: four people, uh, in terms of how they view the labor government. But I do think this third one is really important too.

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: It's not all about policies, it's also about values and the fact that they

Concilio: Yes.

James Johnson: would

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: That is a real sort of brand strength to use marketing, speak for the reform party with voters.

Concilio: And 42% is a lot, isn't it? When, when talking about, um, these positions, obviously it's deferred highest here, but that's quite a significant driver, isn't it? Of 42% and 47%. For those who are considered and 42% people reform voters, um, they must be quite a way out on the other parties, I'd assume, on, on, on bat issue, or have we not, if you're not [00:12:00] polled for that.

James Johnson: that's right. Uh, they, they basically feel that the main parties have failed. Um, and, uh, they have seen conservative governments fail to control immigration despite saying they would, have seen labor since the election who they were willing to give a chance, uh, not, not do so either. So yeah, this is a big, big strong point for reform. And the really interesting thing for reform

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: that, you know, it's not just their current voters that think this, it's also people who would consider voting for reform. And that's kind of the magic combination. If you are a, if you are a party like reform, you know, you can win more people. By doing what you're doing already.

Concilio: They would be competent at running the country only 15%. I can imagine a lot of people watching this who, who are, uh, members and uh, or would vote for other parties thinking surely that is the most important thing, and yet it's clearly not for people. So even though people do not think or proactively think they would be competent at running the country.

They're willing to vote for them to be, to run the country. How do you, how do you think, how do you square [00:13:00] that out? Is it, does it come down to values?

James Johnson: I think there's two things going on there. I think one is, is that the general faith in any politician, including reform to be competent is so low because of recent events and of, and, and, and situations that people are just not willing to give that. Badge to anyone. And the second thing is that I do believe that competence in that sort of, know, slightly sort of, you know, who's gonna be, you know, the person to best manage the country, you know, the sort of Rishi Sun Act style brand, the David Cameron style brand, that sort of drier managerial appeal to voters has become less relevant over the last 10 years. actually it

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: important to share someone's values. And to have that sense of you're gonna get things done. Um, that's what sort of really comes out to voters. So perhaps not necessarily how you would run a business or run a, or run a government. Um, uh, I'm not suggesting that politicians go and talk about how they'll be [00:14:00] incompetent. Um, but it is not the most important thing that a voter considers in the context of 2025.

Concilio: That's, that's fascinating. So I guess in terms of 2019, Boris got Brexit done. That was why he got elected. That was very much the, the slogan, wasn't it? So we're saying here it's kind of stop the votes, reduce immigration, whatever the phrase is, the equivalent, um, of that, that Boris simplicity, if you like, in 2019?

James Johnson: and they will use that as a proxy for competence. I think that's a

Concilio: Yeah. Yep.

James Johnson: thing to stress is that, you know, let's say that Rishi soak, when he stood up there in 2020, uh, three and said, I'm gonna stop the boats. If he'd have

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: still be Prime Minister because

Concilio: Right?

James Johnson: gone, that shows that he's competent.

Actually, they didn't fulfill the promises and voters said, no thanks.

Concilio: Yep. Wow.

James Johnson: one thing that

Concilio: Damning indictment, isn't it? On the mainstream, on the more traditional, mainstream parties, isn't it? Wow.

James Johnson: It's not,

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: are not a nice read if you are a labor or conservative politician. Um, so what do, what does the current coalition look like for Reform uk? Now what I'm, I'm talking about here [00:15:00] is not how it looked like in terms of who voted reform in 2024, but who's saying their vote reform now?

And we're showing this because what we really want to sort of map out here. Is what is the path to power, for reform now? Um, and we've done this for all the main parties, but we're obviously majoring on reform here, partly because of, of their conference, but partly because they are the real interesting question right now because they are the front runners and we've done a segmentation of the electorate.

Um, these are pretty standard. Many of many of listeners will have seen these kind of things before. Some fancy names, some different groups. Um, but the reason this is interesting is because of how. Significant. This group that we've called Pessimistic Patriots, pessimist Patriots, are in the Reform Coalition.

Almost half of their current support is when this in this group. best way of thinking about this group are the people that came over to the conservatives under Theresa May in 2017, and that Boris Johnson extended support amongst in 2019, they're more likely to live in the North and the Midlands.

They're more likely to be [00:16:00] pessimistic about the trajectory of the country. They're more likely to have voted leave. They're more likely to be anti net zero they're more likely to be older nongraduates, often working

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: in blue collar jobs, and they hugely prioritize immigration over other other issues.

Concilio: Right?

James Johnson: that is the real sort of foundation stone of reform support. They do

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: They have these big state boomers who are basically the sort of pension vote, who are very keen to see more welfare spending and also crucially more pensions. and

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: got these two centrist groups, delivery driven optimists and country focused centrists. They are younger. They're slightly more likely to be having that moment where they're sort of buying a house for the first time.

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: sort of preoccupied by things like. Crime, the NHS, uh, and public services, things that touch their lives every day. Um, less likely to be concerned about migration, but still, uh, of the view that it should be reduced. So you can see that sort of rainbow that, that, that reform I've managed to build.

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: them [00:17:00] the support they currently have.

Concilio: I, I, I find the successful graduates at 1.9% telling, because I, I've, I've been to reform events where they say it was London, Oxford, Cambridge, possibly Brighton, Bristol, and Bath could be added to that list, and then was the rest of the country. Um, and. People living in, in said cities, um, tend to be a, a lot of people tend to be graduates.

Um, certainly attracted to those larger cities and they seem completely unaware almost of what's going on with the, uh, opinion polling and how well reform are doing around the country. I mean, we give a presentation, I said, and it's made to people based in London and Cambridge. It's. It's complete surprise to see how on May the first, when the local elections, you know, they won 10 councils, two mayoralties, they came second in the mayoralties, they didn't win all the by elections.

They're winning across the country. Um, and yet it seems to be passing graduates, if you like. And I realize a sweeping broad brush by, uh, and reforms support tends to be for more blue collar, uh, non [00:18:00] graduate, um, members of of the community.

James Johnson: think, I think that's right. I think that's right. I think some of those, uh, you know, younger graduates, you know, some of them especially, especially men, do lean a little bit more rights than perhaps they did a few years ago. you are, you are right. You know, the broad, the broad base of reform support is not in the cities and is not amongst, um, uh, what you know, people with people with higher education degrees. The reason that that matters is a point that you made first, which is that they have used first pass the post. In a very clever way because, and this is my most complicated graph, so bear with me, but it demonstrates

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: What we've done here is we've looked at of those different segments that are part of reform, support that they don't have, but they could still win. Which

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: for getting a majority in Parliament, um, which gives you the biggest bang for your buck in our system. And what you see here on the Y axis is the number of seats that you could get by pursuing a certain group. And on the x axis is. [00:19:00] many seats you would, basically your campaign effectiveness.

So, uh, if you win 20% of that group, if you win 60% of that group, if you win a hundred percent of that group, bring them together. And what we see on this graph is basically if you are certain level of effective with winning that group over, many potential seats for you win. And what you see is, is that firstly the pattern is quite linear, so the more effective you get with each group. goes up in relatively similar, similar or similar order of magnitude. But the number one thing takeaway here is, is that the pessimistic patriots give you the biggest seat uplift, um, almost regardless, uh, of the level of effectiveness that you have relative to other groups. So we're saying that if you are a hundred percent effective with the pessimistic patriots in terms of winning those over that reform don't yet have, then you could win up to 125 seats more. Um, if you went and focused on some of these smaller groups, you would still win seats, you wouldn't win as many as you would with that group. Now, the reason [00:20:00] that is important is because,

Concilio: Hmm.

James Johnson: seen, they are a key part already of reform support. So what we're saying is two things. One, there are more of these people for reform to win, and

Concilio: Right. Yep.

James Johnson: reform a massive seat dividend. Now, if I'm a reform strategist. I'm very, very happy with this graph because what it is saying to me is that my basic strategy, my basic appeal also allows me to win more votes in the places that matter. not having to think, okay, we've got some voters locked in, but we need to do something very different to win more voters and maybe we'll lose some of our existing base. They don't have that strategic challenge that labor does and the conservatives have, have a sort of, almost a sort of one way road to carry on driving down in order to win more seats. So that is a very, very, very promising place for a political party to be. And I have to say, it's pretty rare globally.

We don't tend to see that.

Concilio: It's, it's interesting the online [00:21:00] right is so low 'cause I think kind of noise is off, fat is the loudest. Um, and it's very noticeable and. Credit, in my opinion, this is my opinion, you know, they are, uh, reform do not want to be associated with, for Tommy Robinson's, Andrew Tate esque online, right? Um, even though that dominates the media, even though that dominates social media, it's not the path to go down to try and win votes from that, that crowd, if you like, they're far better off going for the, I said the pessimist patriots in a more, more centrist, dare I say, approach than what many online.

And therefore, vocal critics are probably imploring them to do.

James Johnson: I think that's right. And you know, if you look at some of the other groups that, that, that, that, that they can, they can gain with, you know, the big state boomers are a key point. So

Concilio: Right.

James Johnson: there's quite a lot of these pensioners that are still with the conservatives. Um, despite having the potential to come round to reform, um, uh, and you know, these sort of middle groups that you see, the delivery driven optimists and the country focused ISTs. That's not to say that. need to ditch what [00:22:00] they're saying. Now on things like migration, is a root to power, um, that reforms is used by being incredibly punctually on legal and illegal migration. is less, uh, strategic, um, uh, uh, prize in doing is making some of those arguments to two of those groups, the online right group as you see, but also the Freedom First group. And what these are, these are essentially people who are. Much more likely to use things like X uh, for politics. much more likely to see migration not as a public services challenge, but as a Islam versus Christianity, Islam versus the West. To the point of view, they're more likely to view immigration as a racial. Rather than a burden on the country issue. and they're also very likely to pack back, uh, in, you know, very, very low taxes, um, uh, if not a single flat rate tax. Um, and also a much, much smaller state, as you say. Those [00:23:00] people are very overrepresented online. are the Tommy Robinsons, they are the Rupert Lowe's. but there's really not much benefit at all in Reform UK pursuing those people from a party point of view compared to the other groups. Now, you were there. That reform conference hall, when I made that point, I did get a bit of, I saw a few

Concilio: You did?

James Johnson: you know,

Concilio: Yeah. No, there were. There were,

James Johnson: um, not so

Concilio: yeah.

James Johnson: but that is what the number says, and I think it explains why we've seen Nigel Farage's strategy being so focused on those top four groups.

Concilio: And it's interesting, some of the, um, other research I've seen shows that a num with respect to immigration, and you touched on this. I think it's a bit of a lazy stereo fight. I think it is about race for a lot of reform voters. It's actually about impacts on public services. That was the number one issue that quite by quite a big majority from memory.

The research I saw that showed why people who vote reform are concerned about immigration. Um, again, maybe lazy. I. Guilty of being a bit lazy here. I just thought maybe it was more about [00:24:00] race and religion, but no, it was about public services. Um, and that's the, that's the group that they need to go after.

It's a concern on public services, not as you said, those more fringe right movements who make an awful lot of noise. Uh, and the media focuses an awful lot of attention on, but it's not actually where reform voters are.

James Johnson: Ab, absolutely. And you know, this is about impact on housing. It's about impact on the ability to get serve care at the NHS. Uh, this is about impact on, on schools where, you know, uh, parents', children might be in classrooms where teachers having to balance different languages and different cultures. It's not purely. Pragmatic and about public services. There is that concern too, that people's communities have changed too much or that they haven't given permission, but that, uh, for such an increase in, in migration. But that's more about fairness than race, I think. and

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: you know, that that is the really important, uh, distinction there.

uh, certainly comes through. what we've then done is we've then extrapolated those voter groups. Onto what the impact in seats look like. And we've done a few different, a couple of different scenarios. [00:25:00] So, uh, what we've done is we've assumed that Reform UK and the current polling is on about 150 seats.

Now, actually, when you look at the current polling, and many of your, many people watching this and or listening to this will know that, uh, some polls have reform winning massive majorities at this stage. assume that, you know, things tighten come a general election. maybe the conservatives swap a bit of support under a new leader, maybe labor rallies, some of those left wing voters, back round them because they point to example for the, to the, the threat of Farage for those left wing voters. say the reform starts at around 150 seats. What they need to do to get the biggest lift. Look at that huge lift is targeting those pessimistic patriots. If they get 80% effectiveness with them, bring, it gets them another 107 seats straight away.

Concilio: Well,

James Johnson: 50 to

Concilio: yep.

James Johnson: 7. state boomers, 50% effectiveness, that gets 'em an extra 30 seats. And if we go onto the next slide and continue this sort of uh, uh, experiment, um, you would expect some pickup with those [00:26:00] fringe right groups. Um, you know, that only, only slight, um, but you would still expect some pickup. Um, but that only gets an extra 10 seats, a very small uplift. They're still only at 2 9 7 To get that over that dot dash line that you see there, which is the majority, mark. They need to also make some of those inroads in those large sort of Middle England segments, which we talked about. People focused on crime, housing, uh, rents, um, uh, uh, uh, you know, performance of the NHS. Um, now even only, only small improvements, only 20% of 15% effectiveness big returns and seats. That takes them over the line to 3, 2, 8.

Now we have counted for some small losses amongst some of those more left

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: uh, segments. Um, I do think that the next election is gonna become Stama versus Farage or whoever the labor leader is versus

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: and that will bring some of those left wing voters back to the labor fold. But we think that if that happens in the way that we think it will here. Reform [00:27:00] is, is basically at majority level on three 17 now, from going from five seats at the general election,

Concilio: It's incredible, isn't it? Yeah.

James Johnson: three 17. That's a pretty good place to be. Um, here's what it looks like if you go

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: online right and the Freedom First Groups first. Uh, you do still do well with the deliver, uh, with the, uh, with the pessimistic patriots.

You can see that big uplift there. Um, you know, they, they, they, you don't do as well, but you still do pretty, pretty good. you take a much bigger loss with those Middle England segments who are really put off by some of that language that those

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: Um, and it you take a blow with them. Because they're so big, it actually puts you down to 2 5 9. Now that's still coalition material. If you wanted to work with the conservative say, but we don't think that it's enough to win a majority. And you can see that danger there for reform. Um, uh, and, and again, you can see why Far Arge is making some of the decisions he's making, um, in terms of keeping his distance from the sort Ofput Robinsons of this world.[00:28:00]

Concilio: And one of the issues which I saw constantly raised at Reform Conference, uh, was net zero. Uh, and in fact, it was interesting that I think it was only 17 18% on one of your earlier slides had net zero as a reason they would vote for reform. And I, I understand the point being made about the impact on, uh, uh, energy bills and impact that has on inflation and, and, and so on it.

But that's probably not a topic that. It's gonna drive a lot of votes for reform. It doesn't look like, um, they do really need to focus on, on, as I said, immigration, crime, uh, rather than net zero, where I think it's such a different position to what everyone else has taken. Uh, I can see that putting off quite a lot of more centrist voters who might be interested in reform on those other issues.

James Johnson: Yeah, I think that's, I think that's half right. I think that the, I think the pessimistic patriots are. Very skeptical of net zero now in a way that

Concilio: Right. Okay.

James Johnson: ago, because they have basically seen the potential cost to them. Um, and [00:29:00] I think really since that sort of inflation spike after the pandemic, a bit of that support

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: And I think the Middle England groups have become a little less concerned. But I do think you are right that you do not reform, do not wanna make that a complete centerpiece of their campaign. Um, because.

Concilio: Yes.

James Johnson: The idea of wanting to protect the environment. It's still really important to some of those Midling England groups.

They might disagree with some of the means to get there, but they don't want it to be sort of thrown away, uh, uh, down, uh, um, or, you know, sort of buried underneath, uh, everything else. Um, so I would say that, uh, there's not too much risk of them being actively anti net zero, but I would say that really if they really wanna appeal to those centrist groups, they need to be talking more about the NHS, more about pensions, more about crime.

Concilio: Got it. Um, what happens to the conservative party, just before we touch on this next one? 'cause the assumption, I mean, my, my assumption would be it's center right voters who are going to reform, uh, predominantly more than people who historically have voted [00:30:00] labor. I dunno if that's correct, but that would, um, or people would be maybe inclined to vote conservative.

Um, a conservative party is in real trouble, and if this polling is accurate.

James Johnson: Totally look in, in the scenario, in the, in the best case, in a, you know, a good case scenario for reform. The conservatives are in, are in dire, dire straits. Now the interesting thing is, is that when I said there's more of these pessimistic patriots for reform to win, uh, just quickly trying to do the maths.

Um, 80% of them, 80% of the pessimistic patriots, that reform can still win, are in the conservative party currently. So the conservatives have a lot more. Losses to make. Actually only 20% of them are in the Labor Party because a lot of them have been lost already from labor. And

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: lot of labor's votes now are, are people on the left. Um, so should be very worried indeed. And

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: reform can successfully target pensioners who are sticking with the conservatives, you could see a real, real clap [00:31:00] in Tory support. Could a change in leader things up for the conservatives? Could a

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: with Farage or infighting in reform put the conservatives back on the map?

It's very possible. Um, uh, but you know, the conservatives are now vying with a very, effective, uh, uh, um, alternative party. And the reason they're effective because they're new. They haven't been

Concilio: Yep. Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: are currently in government, that that gives them a real, a real plus point.

So yes, if I were, the conservatives we're heading into their conference very shortly, I would be very, very worried indeed about where UK Poland currently is for them.

Concilio: One of the takeaways I had from Reform Conference was just how many ordinary members were there, uh, in relation to other com other party conferences that I go to. And there's a real energy amongst so as well as it, it that new, that new point can be taken, confirm. And since it's new 'cause it's got, members are excited

James Johnson: Yeah.

Concilio: [00:32:00] who, you know, really wanna get out there and spread the message of reform, which you don't.

We certainly don't see the conservative part anymore. And maybe labor liberal to an extent. They've got an energy on the center, right, which the conservators are struggling to match in terms of their membership base at the moment.

James Johnson: totally do. And, uh, let me take my scientific polling hat off for a moment. But, you know,

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: I think that's absolutely right. The thing I was struck by at Reform Conference was how many normal people were there.

Concilio: Yes, a hundred percent.

James Johnson: made, we, we, we had made a joke about my Folkston half marathon t-shirt, but you know, it is the people that I grew up with and, you know, knew in, in Folkston, you know, it's people who are. Uh, you know, less, less likely to have gone to uni. They're, uh, also successful, like, you know, they're people who have gone and set up their own taxi businesses or electricians or plumbers,

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: and they're fed up with the situation. You don't often see those people at party conferences, and I think they were there at reform.

Concilio: No, not at all. That struck me as well. Yeah, it really struck me as well. Um, uh, as, as well just, yeah, it was. It's nice to see so many people [00:33:00] involved in politics, which you just don't tend to see, um, at party conferences.

James Johnson: a couple of

Concilio: Brilliant.

James Johnson: for you.

Concilio: Yes.

James Johnson: does reform need to to grow then? Well, what we've done here is we've asked people which parties you trust most to handle each of the following issues. And it's interesting reform have a big, almost 20 point lead over labor on immigration and asylum. Fascinating by the way, that labor are more trusted on immigration than asylum, than the conservatives. That really shows you how much the conservative record in

Concilio: Yeah,

James Johnson: is, is, holding them down.

Concilio: I mean, just slight aside, the conservatives don't are behind on everything.

James Johnson: It's a good point. Yeah.

Concilio: I think I'm right in saying that.

James Johnson: Yeah. I think the

Concilio: Wow.

James Johnson: the

Concilio: It's a wow. It's,

James Johnson: come is

Concilio: yeah.

James Johnson: and the economy, isn't it? Uh. Pensions. But yeah, they're not, they're not ahead on

Concilio: Yeah.

James Johnson: Um,

Concilio: Wow.

James Johnson: Brexit reform also have a good lead. Uh, and, uh, they're doing, um, they're doing uh, uh, uh, well on a couple of other issues too, but they clearly do have some. Work to do on things [00:34:00] like cost of living. Um, there, 35, 35 there, scored raw with labor. might

Concilio: Okay.

James Johnson: labor have been in power for a year and cost of living is still high. Inflation's back up to, to levels that I think it's the highest in the G seven, the OECD said

Concilio: That's right. Yep.

James Johnson: Uh, so, you know, you'd expect reform to be doing a bit better there. Um, the economy, they've only got two point lead. NHS, you know, labor still have an eight point lead on that issue. So for reform to reach into those Middle England groups that we talked about and to put at rest some of the concerns that, uh, pensioners might have. I mean, look at pensions down the bottom, fourth from the bottom.

Concilio: Yeah,

James Johnson: 33,

Concilio: so

James Johnson: 36, conservative, 31. You know, reform have

Concilio: I think most p Yeah.

James Johnson: on,

Concilio: Wow.

James Johnson: either. So they need to broaden out is the point of this slide.

Concilio: I find that fascinating because I, again, a slightly lazy view, which I might have held if I'm honest, is that older people will vote reform. Um, but if reform aren't doing well on pensions, [00:35:00] they're not going to win that older, older voter. Why do you think they're struggling on, on that issue?

James Johnson: Totally, and I think this is one of the misconceptions out there about reform support. It's

Concilio: Hmm.

James Johnson: late working age people formed the. Bulk of the party support, not pensioners. that there, there's two sides of that, right? One is like, that's bad for a reform because there are lots of those people. the other side is if they can win that over 65 segment, which is huge because of our aging population and also how many of them vote, then there is huge upside in terms of the reasons why. Look, I think one thing that the conservatives have been very effective at, uh, over the last really 20 years is. Reassuring their voters who, uh, pensioners tend to be, that, uh, uh, their, their pension will be safe under the Tories. I think the triple lock protection on pensions, which the conservatives did stick to in government, uh, there's lots of, there's lots to be said for its efficacy as a policy. Um, [00:36:00] but it has given the impression to voters, uh, that their pension is broadly protected.

And I think, you know, reform are not gonna win many of the labor votes on this graph on pensions. But they really could chip into that 31% who are still saying conservative. I think, you know, they need to be. It's two things when you are thinking about pensions. One is, would you protect pensions in the first place?

And I think there is a tension in reforms activist base on this. I think some people who are on the more younger side. Would actually quite like to see the triple lock removed so that they could do more, uh, uh, bold things on, for example, investment for younger people. Um, and then, uh, and then I think there's another part of the party, uh, which, which would like to see those protections be put in place.

So, you know, there's a tension there. Um, uh, uh, and, but I think there's another thing on pen for pensioners that are thinking about, is. Strong pensions usually means a strong economy and they still worry about reformers

Concilio: Okay.

James Johnson: to manage that economy well. I think that's something that that, [00:37:00] that they also would need to reassure those older voters on.

So that is definitely a weakness for reform as it stands. But also the prize, if they do manage to address it, is huge in terms of the number of voters they could unlock. But it's interesting, right? Because like you say, people aren't really aware of that, like the roadblock to reform support at the moment, the thing that's holding them back from 40% actually pension vote.

Concilio: And I think a lot of people will be taken that away from, uh, this, this podcast because I mean, I, again, I, before I saw his presentation, my assumption was it was, it was the older population.

James Johnson: absolutely.

Concilio: But again, that kind of fits in with what we saw at conference with those who were attending, uh, which was working age people,

James Johnson: Yeah,

Concilio: um, more than pensioners.

James Johnson: right.

Concilio: That's certainly true.

James Johnson: my folkston white van man. Right? That's the kind of people who were there, not your,

Concilio: Well, I, I joke there was more for Ford Wild Tracks in the carpark there than a Ford dealership. Um, as a, as the working man descended on Birmingham. Um, but again, it shows reforms touch. It was free parking and 20 pound a ticket.

James Johnson: we go.

Concilio: You try and go tutorial conference,

James Johnson: wrong.

Concilio: you're talking [00:38:00] hundreds and hundreds of pounds,

James Johnson: Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, look, I, I ran an event there, right? And it was a lot cheaper for me to run that event there than it would be at a or labor conference. Um, now maybe they'll

Concilio: yep.

James Johnson: really, uh, really, really

Concilio: I was gonna say,

James Johnson: in the next couple of years as they become more, more popular.

But, you know, it was certainly more, more accessible in that regard. Final slide for you, um, is just something that we, we,

Concilio: Uh, yes.

James Johnson: on, which is just how important emotions are gonna be in campaigning too. Um, and, uh, this is actually going back to the election last year. Uh, we ran a poll in Platon, in partnership with, with Frederick's Advisory Partners on, uh, Farage.

And, um, we asked people what emotions they felt, uh, when they sort of heard or saw or thought about Nigel Farage. And you can see just how important he is. Um, in terms of, uh, building support for reform, uh, people said they were interested, attentive. They, they felt, they felt strong hearing him. Thought that was really interesting.

When we talk [00:39:00] about people being powerless,

Concilio: Okay.

James Johnson: um, alert, enthusiastic, determined, excited, inspired, it shows you how important it is to have a powerful personality at the head of a party. And I think, again, you can read this two ways, the optimistic view for reform. Is, this is fantastic. Farage is our guy. He appeals to people in a way that other politicians don't. think that's right. I think, by the way, that his appearance in the jungle and I'm a celebrity was absolutely crucial in, in doing that. I think a lot of these results wouldn't look quite so good if he hadn't had that stint. It, it broadened his appeal out to a lot of people that he otherwise wasn't reaching. The flip side though is has to maintain these numbers for four long years.

Concilio: Yeah, long

James Johnson: is tough to be a

Concilio: time.

James Johnson: for that long, and, uh, you know, that, that, that's the pessimistic view is can he hold onto it? And that's gonna be the key question, I think going, going forward.

Concilio: Questions often asked, and I, I [00:40:00] literally don't have an answer 'cause we don't know. But if, if Nigel Friars fell under the proverbial bus tomorrow, what would happen to reform? How much of reform is Colter Personalities Too strong, but clearly there is a strong Nigel Farage vote amongst reform supporters.

Does reform exist without Nigel Farage in, as we see it today? Can it maintain these numbers in the polls if Nigel Farage was not leading the party?

James Johnson: I've got a pretty strong view on this. I don't think it can. I think

Concilio: Okay.

James Johnson: a huge bulk of reform support comes from Farage. I think it's

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: well known because he's such a well known politician. Um, and, uh, he's also got a ability to connect, as you see on these numbers here,

Concilio: Yep. Yep.

James Johnson: just don't. reform got into government. Under Farage and then Farage stepped down. I think that's different because then it

Concilio: Mm-hmm.

James Johnson: about who's gonna be the next pm. They have a platform, they have, you know, a default right to be heard. [00:41:00] I think that that therefore means that reform can continue, but if it happens before they get into government, if Farage is not the leader. By the time of the next election, I think that's a bad place for reform to be in,

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: because there's no obvious successor. And also one thing that we do know that's happened with parties that Ferra has been in charge of over the last few years is they do end up in a lot of infighting. And if he's not at the

Concilio: Yes.

James Johnson: I think we could see a real nasty scrap for who becomes leader. And I don't think that's gonna look good to the public. It'll be, that's where, that's where that's the last hope for the conservatives, right? That either, you know, there's a big battle of infighting that forces Farage out or, uh, that, um, uh, that Farage is no longer leader. And at that point, if voters do turn back to the conservatives, there's a chance for recovery.

Concilio: Yep.

James Johnson: uh, if Farage can maintain these numbers, then it's hard to see how he gets shunted off the whole position.

Concilio: And, but as you, as you've said, um, very accurately, four years is an awful [00:42:00] long time. Um, and anything could happen in those four years. Um, so James, thank you very, very much for your, for your time today. Um, some absolutely fascinating insights there. Um, certainly collapse of a Tory party, um, and really weather reform can hold this lead.

Um, it's gonna be what we're gonna be watching closely over the next four years. Um, so yes, thank you very much for your time. I dunno if you've got anything else you'd like to, to add, um, before we say goodbye.

James Johnson: think. I think that's the main thing. I mean, you know, we have seen a seismic move in British politics. It is a very exciting time to be UK politics

Concilio: Hmm.

James Johnson: remember people saying to, I'm sure you had this as well. You know, we work, we advise clients on politics. Uh, you from the, uh, you know, communications and, and, and, you know, risk point of view, uh, uh, me from the, what the numbers say, point of view, I thought we had a whopping labor majority. People weren't gonna be that interested in UK politics for a few years. It was gonna be boring. It ain't boring. Uh, and

Concilio: No

James Johnson: both of

Concilio: anything but

James Johnson: both of our industries have become more relevant actually

Concilio: yep.[00:43:00]

James Johnson: because of how fragile things are. And I think that really speaks to, you know, what Farage has done, but also how volatile the voters are. In terms of how frustrated they are with the status quo. And I would say, you know, do not bet on the next few years being quiet and stable because, uh, uh, voters are very, very frustrated and angry. And I'd say to your clients and people listening, you know, do a focus group. You know, go and listen to those voters in places like Grimsby because they are mightily pissed off. Um, and, uh, it gives that insight into where things might be headed over the next few years.

Concilio: Yeah, I think next year's local elections are going to be potentially transformative in many respects because there's gonna be an awful lot of change and an awful lot of angry voters. And I think that will have potentially national repercussions maybe for both conservative and labor. And I think we're certainly gonna see a lot more reform.

LED councils, I mean Wales and Scotland in particular, also looking absolutely fascinating for reform and how well they could do there. [00:44:00] So James, thank you very much for sparing your time, uh, this afternoon and good luck with growing the business in America.

James Johnson: Thank you. ​