[SPEAKER_00]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_00]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

[SPEAKER_00]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer,

[SPEAKER_03]: good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to in best talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is our Wednesday.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's one thing October 8, 2025 edition of the best talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: Appreciate you all tuning in for this hour and our job as usual is to help you go on better investor.

[SPEAKER_03]: We do that by shining light on the pitfalls that many investors make.

[SPEAKER_03]: Usually it's about

[SPEAKER_03]: allowing their emotions to creep into the investment process and that's what we hear to help you avoid.

[SPEAKER_03]: You don't want that.

[SPEAKER_03]: You don't want emotions driving your decisions.

[SPEAKER_03]: You want a silver view of the reality on the ground, not getting caught up in hype.

[SPEAKER_03]: Keep your feet on the ground and making good risk versus reward decisions.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's what this is all about.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not about chasing the latest fad or the sexy name.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's about investing in real businesses.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so our job is to answer your finance investment questions, giving you and giving you data and perspective that can help you make better decisions with your money.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that's what every hour on a best talk is dedicated to.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now we just be able to talk about today's Mark performance and run down the show topics, but as usual, tackle this color question first.

[SPEAKER_09]: Hi, it's a question about dentists and mines, ticker T and n. There is your Indian mining company, small caps stock that have been in for quite a while now.

[SPEAKER_09]: I bought it, I'm going to find it and I have an average price in the 140s.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I'm going to pretty steadily and I'm just worried if this is a good point to sell or if you think it has more room to run, take some of this on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, if you've listened for any length of time, you'll know that I like exposure to nuclear power.

[SPEAKER_03]: And obviously, uranium is in that supply chain.

[SPEAKER_03]: The problem with a lot of the junior miners, that we show, we call them, is that there's a lot of hope, there's a lot of hype.

[SPEAKER_03]: And just like the junior miners and the golden silver space,

[SPEAKER_03]: Ultimately hitting their paider, meaning producing consistent cash flows, is fairly uncommon.

[SPEAKER_03]: It happens, but more often than not, it's, hey, that never comes to fruition.

[SPEAKER_03]: about 120 back in the lows in March.

[SPEAKER_03]: To now $2.86 an all-time high.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it's a penny stock, well $5.00 consider to penny stock.

[SPEAKER_03]: And they don't make money.

[SPEAKER_03]: So despite the recent rally, their business is not really improving much.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now they did make a penny last quarter, but they're expected to lose a penny in the third quarter once they announce earnings.

[SPEAKER_03]: And revenues last quarter were down 3% to $900,000.

[SPEAKER_03]: So think about that.

[SPEAKER_03]: They're run rate in revenues about $4 million.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it's a $2.5 billion mark you can.

[SPEAKER_03]: And you might say, okay, the junior mine of the developing mines, what will earnings be in next year in and beyond?

[SPEAKER_03]: And the reality here is, it's still supposed to lose money next year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I don't really see any thing exciting about this.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would be probably trimming it, selling it.

[SPEAKER_03]: We look at earnings estimates for 20, yeah, just to make 34 cents in 20, 30, 15 cents in 20, 29.

[SPEAKER_03]: But continue to lose money this year next year, year after that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And the year after that,

[SPEAKER_03]: So there's not a lot of clarity, it's all about the future, and it's at 34 cents in 2030, it's still not exactly cheap.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I would be trimming it.

[SPEAKER_03]: I probably wouldn't be selling all of it because it isn't a good uptrend, like the rest of the sector, but it's definitely a good place to be trimming your position.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, we have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so, and our main focus point is about the billion dollar gamble around AI and why open AI's massive deals with AMD and Nvidia carry systematic risks.

[SPEAKER_03]: Are these in many ways related party transactions?

[SPEAKER_03]: Have you ever heard that term?

[SPEAKER_03]: So we'll dig into that story and what risks are bubbling up in the current AI bubble.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then Social Security doesn't make sense to delay or take it a bit early.

[SPEAKER_03]: Most advisers, talk about waiting longer, growing that guaranteed income.

[SPEAKER_03]: But for some people, it makes sense to do it sooner.

[SPEAKER_03]: So we always want to be open-minded and I want to look at that story as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then I do want to touch on these levered ETFs.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's a lot of these single stock levered ETFs that are out there and there's a lot of hidden costs so we'll dig into what that looks like as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: But most importantly, we'll be your questions.

[SPEAKER_03]: What is on fit?

[SPEAKER_03]: We have a voice, we have voice bank calls on fixed income, as well as GEVO.

[SPEAKER_03]: We have some questions that came in via the Avastock YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_03]: And of course, we welcome your live calls at 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, as you move to a break, let me tell you about the new series that we debuted on our Invest Talk YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's called the Invest Talk Innovators.

[SPEAKER_03]: In four episode, I spoke with my good friend Anthony Katz, the visionary founder of Hyper Ice, and he would find what it means to be an innovator and detailed health technology, including AI, is transforming the wellness industry.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's a great interview, like we go for

[SPEAKER_03]: at our Best Talk YouTube channel, and look for it in Best Talk in the videos.

[SPEAKER_02]: Serious investors are certain to have finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_02]: What do you think's a good price?

[SPEAKER_02]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

[SPEAKER_03]: I was wondering from your standpoint, if they're at downside, in buying fractional shares, or is this whole shares?

[SPEAKER_02]: And 24-7 rain or shine, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased dancers.

[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, he is the simple, you like the business.

[SPEAKER_03]: I will say we've trimmed it a bit and cut it as a lower waiting.

[SPEAKER_04]: Now while gold is hitting these record highs, it's driven by the safe heaven demand by central bank buying across the board.

[SPEAKER_02]: Your participation makes an invest talk better.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hey, Justin and Luke, this is Josh and North Carolina.

[SPEAKER_04]: This is Marlow from York City area.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's take a live call, Sam from San Jose.

[SPEAKER_02]: So don't forget to call, Invest talk.

[SPEAKER_02]: Great advice.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_02]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: The Invest Talk phone lines never close, and now Justin Klein is here taking your calls live.

[SPEAKER_02]: Invest Talk, 888-99, chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's go take a look at the market today.

[SPEAKER_03]: It was another positive day in markets.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's see, in video, yeah, it looks like, I'm trying to remember that the news I've taught my head of all this stuff in front of me, of so much data.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's hard to, it's like every day, it is like drinking from a fire house.

[SPEAKER_03]: We have so much data in front of us and

[SPEAKER_03]: Many times it's overwhelming to really get to everything and stay on top of everything.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now the minutes from the FOMC, September's meeting did show mixed views on inflation and majority of the members.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, upside to risk to inflation.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, I thought that was interesting and, you know, kind of odd that the market didn't react too much to that.

[SPEAKER_03]: Members noted on the job side that gains its load and the unemployment rate had edged up.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, that, I think the market focused more on that, that the labor market, at least from the Fed's perspective, is certainly weakening.

[SPEAKER_03]: done to balance risks, and I think that makes sense.

[SPEAKER_03]: We're certainly in, I think, if you took out stripped out AI investments, you certainly would have an economy that was on the edge of a recession.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's pretty clear when you're starting to see the bankruptcies that are happening, especially in Autolone sector, that was a tricolor,

[SPEAKER_03]: was the bankruptcy about a month ago, and then you had a part's auto-OEM part's manufacturer.

[SPEAKER_03]: I believe that's what they were.

[SPEAKER_03]: I won't bankrupt those at something brands.

[SPEAKER_03]: First brands, there we go.

[SPEAKER_03]: First brands.

[SPEAKER_03]: So you're starting to see a tick-up in

[SPEAKER_03]: layoffs, lack of hiring, bankruptcy, et cetera, and so it makes sense for the Fed to cut.

[SPEAKER_03]: Another question is, how much does that ignite inflation and I think the Fed continues to be worried about that?

[SPEAKER_03]: Treasuries overall were unchanged, a little bit weaker on the short end with rates up a little bit there, but the 10-year auction saw eight.

[SPEAKER_03]: three base point three basis point tail, so not great, but nothing, nothing too worries them.

[SPEAKER_03]: Dollar next is up point three percent gold finished up.

[SPEAKER_03]: Once again, well above 4,000 ounce now, up 1.7 percent into record territory, Bitcoin features are up 1.4 percent kind of bouncing around the low 120s right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: WTI settled up 1.3 percent on the day.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if you look at the, look at the,

[SPEAKER_03]: Heat map here.

[SPEAKER_03]: You definitely saw a weakness out of the the banks.

[SPEAKER_03]: J.B.

[SPEAKER_03]: Oregon down over 1% while it was far more down nearly 2% you had continued weakness Skullman Sachs, American Express, Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, all those were weak.

[SPEAKER_03]: You had product manufacturing?

[SPEAKER_03]: So companies like AMAT and caterpillar, they were strong.

[SPEAKER_03]: So the industrials were strong, utilities were fairly strong, and tech was strong.

[SPEAKER_03]: Outside of that, it was kind of a mixed picture overall.

[SPEAKER_03]: They probably know that by now, we get questions from the YouTube comment section on our best talk channel.

[SPEAKER_03]: Here's one that's came in.

[SPEAKER_03]: Jim Lacy's SFM is the two-week load.

[SPEAKER_03]: You think it's worth buying, or are there better options?

[SPEAKER_03]: So this is a name that we've owned for a long time.

[SPEAKER_03]: About it, leave it 20s, now it's worth a little over $100 per share.

[SPEAKER_03]: We actually have this on the chopping block now because we hate it.

[SPEAKER_03]: We still like the company, but we just found for our waiting in the particular sector.

[SPEAKER_03]: We just wanted to sell it.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so we will be selling it, but probably in a bounce and I think we're into major support here around $100 per share.

[SPEAKER_03]: So for a bounce, yes.

[SPEAKER_03]: Longer term, I still like it, certainly a better value here, but we find better opportunities within the space.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I'll say that.

[SPEAKER_03]: So we still like it, but we just downgraded it a bit in our rankings within the sector.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so it's on the chopping block to be sold to switch out for a name, names that are a little higher on the list.

[SPEAKER_03]: So just depends on your timeframe, which ones in the sector you rank,

[SPEAKER_03]: better.

[SPEAKER_03]: And now it's when we in the upper half is opposed to three, four years ago and we first bought it.

[SPEAKER_03]: It was a ranked number one within the this sector.

[SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, that's kind of our take on sprouts farmers market currently.

[SPEAKER_03]: One thing you notice there.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, one thing you have to learn about this business is that there's nothing is black and white.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's nothing that is

[SPEAKER_03]: good or bad for everybody.

[SPEAKER_03]: It depends on how you what you wait, what you in importance, is it income, is it quality, the balance sheet, is it growth, is it volatility, is it valuation?

[SPEAKER_03]: How are you waiting all these things?

[SPEAKER_03]: And you should always be operating or downgrading

[SPEAKER_03]: different names based on those waitings and those waiting should be based on your risk tolerance level and so that's what we're always doing looking for the best debris within particular sectors and one year it might be this company but that doesn't mean it's going to be that company the next year or the next quarter and so as you constantly reassess names that used to be big winners and you really liked based on certain metrics like

[SPEAKER_03]: they're not as attractive.

[SPEAKER_03]: So we've trimmed it since, so it has been in a recent downtrend, but we've trimmed it by the Guapo Rol 130-140.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, we still have a smaller position left, we will be exiting it on a bounce.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now we're moving to a break so at the top, my focus point and more answers to your questions, and I encourage you to call now on the best talk at 8.99 chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

[SPEAKER_02]: The more you learn about how the market works, the better your chances for success.

[SPEAKER_02]: In Vestark, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now our main focus point is about this story and it's the billion dollar gamble that many in the AI space are playing, not just with their investors, but the broader market and the economy as a whole.

[SPEAKER_03]: About 40% of current economic growth is due to AI

[SPEAKER_03]: Increasingly, there are deals being announced almost every day now between players within the space.

[SPEAKER_03]: Things like Nvidia, investing in OpenAI, and then OpenAI buying cloud computing capacity from Oracle, which is buying chips from Nvidia, which has a staking coreweaf which is providing

[SPEAKER_03]: AI infrastructure to open AI, and so it's kind of this one big club and they're all passing around money and deals to each other.

[SPEAKER_03]: And many are invested in each other as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that's small amounts here.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're talking hundreds of billions of dollars.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so the growth in the space is becoming more and more insolent.

[SPEAKER_03]: And the risk is that it's creating a mirage

[SPEAKER_03]: smart capital allocation is one of the most underrated aspects of a leader's decision making.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you're making, you're allocating the capital of a company, poorly, over time that will show.

[SPEAKER_03]: It will result in to be lower profits, lower cash flow, lower stock price, and that leader

[SPEAKER_03]: if they're allocating the capital prudently by only investing in new projects that likely make economic sense, making acquisitions that are not overpaying.

[SPEAKER_03]: And when a leader can do that, it usually results in consistent growth in the stock price internings.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that's why you've seen a lot of companies rely heavily on stock buybacks, stock buybacks, you know, may not be great or society's a whole, but it's good for shareholders, for the most part, because that's excess capital that instead of paying out the dividend and taxed on it's used to grow overall earnings per share.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so what's happening in this space is

[SPEAKER_03]: Potentially, very damning to the leaders that are currently going after this growth.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if the AI productivity gains do not result in return on investment, you're likely to see a large correction in the stock prices, which will likely also have a strong negative impact on the real economy.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now the positive right now is that most of this spending is not done with debt, it's basically taking the cash flows from a Microsoft, from a Google, from an Amazon, from a meta.

[SPEAKER_03]: These are all names that have good solid other types of businesses and they're investing in AI.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I don't think it's going to be something that will cause widespread bankruptcies.

[SPEAKER_03]: that do stupid things.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're seeing a lot in private credit, private credit is financing a lot of this capex as well, and so there'll be some vehicles that probably go bust over this.

[SPEAKER_03]: But overall it's going to look probably a lot like 2000.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is pretty similar.

[SPEAKER_03]: There wasn't a lot of debt.

[SPEAKER_03]: Most of it was just a lot of cherish ones.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so these webs, web of deals is really starting to make investors wake up.

[SPEAKER_03]: The things like, every single deal between OpenAI and AMD, we're going to purchase AMD chips and exchange.

[SPEAKER_03]: They're going to buy a 10% stake in the company, at a discounted price.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then you have the names like CoreWeaf.

[SPEAKER_03]: They have an agreement with OpenAI to sell Nvidia systems to OpenAI, who owns part of CoreWeaf.

[SPEAKER_03]: Oracle will spend a $40 billion video chips to power open a data centers.

[SPEAKER_03]: In Oracle and OpenAI, there's just a lot of insular investments here.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's very reminiscent of dot com, the first dot com bubble.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think we're getting to the point where these related party transactions are too worrisome, too blatant, too obvious, and it's increasing the risk rapidly within this space.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now we're heading into a break and if you're calling now at 8.899 chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: Invest Talk Innovators, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, Interview Company Leaders, Founders and Visionaries.

[SPEAKER_02]: So head over to the Invest Talk YouTube channel and look for Invest Talk Innovators.

[SPEAKER_02]: Justin Klein is here now and ready to answer your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_02]: Call Invest Talk 888-99-Chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: On the next investor talk, we'll look into this question.

[SPEAKER_03]: We'll mortgage rates, keep dropping, following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut analysts from Fannie Mae and the National Association of Home Builders have released their forecast for the 30 year fixed market rate, directing where the rate will settle by the end of 2020.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's go ahead and drop in a fresh listener question now.

[SPEAKER_06]: Hi, this is Andrew from Buckelow.

[SPEAKER_06]: New York.

[SPEAKER_06]: I have a question about a ethanol bio-fuel company, cheapo, thicker G, C, B, O, and I wanted to get your perspective on this.

[SPEAKER_06]: I'm new to trade agents.

[SPEAKER_06]: I don't have the investment knowledge, but I value you to guys with Canadians and thank you for everything that you do.

[SPEAKER_06]: For the last five years or so, it certainly has shown it's value.

[SPEAKER_06]: Initially, the hype

[SPEAKER_06]: back in maybe 2020, 2021 and then it certainly drops significantly.

[SPEAKER_06]: I don't know if there's any restructuring if that happened.

[SPEAKER_06]: But I'm just trying to get an understanding was this something that was just over height.

[SPEAKER_06]: I was an idea that was very exciting or is this company truly in the direction of becoming maybe one of the biggest selling producers.

[SPEAKER_06]: biofuels for aviation.

[SPEAKER_06]: Good thought.

[SPEAKER_06]: Thanks much.

[SPEAKER_06]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is an interesting one.

[SPEAKER_03]: 555 million dollar market cap.

[SPEAKER_03]: And historically it's been a terrible performer.

[SPEAKER_03]: It just continues to be in a long, long downtrend, losing money.

[SPEAKER_03]: But in 2020, as the caller said, it really broke out.

[SPEAKER_03]: Since that breakout in late 2020, it went from, by the way, then it went from about 50 cents all the way to a high around $16.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now it's down to around $2 with a close to $2.29.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's starting to enter another uptrend, which, from a technical perspective, I'd like to talking about just straight up trading.

[SPEAKER_03]: And their business while not great, it's still negative cash flow.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is improving.

[SPEAKER_03]: It had negative 150 million of free cash flow in September of 2022.

[SPEAKER_03]: And they've whittled it down.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's only 91 million in trailing 12 month free cash flow.

[SPEAKER_03]: So not great, which our equity is negative.

[SPEAKER_03]: So all of the fundamentals are not good.

[SPEAKER_03]: Positive is that recently they've stopped issuing shares.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's good.

[SPEAKER_03]: They have solid balance sheet, but they are burning cash.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I would really need to understand what the value prop is here.

[SPEAKER_03]: Why everyone thinks because I see what you're saying and I'm just looking at.

[SPEAKER_03]: I've never looked at this name.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I can't tell you about the technology or whether the technology is worthwhile or economical.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would be looking into that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I really have to have a lot of confidence to hold this long term in, I don't have to have a lot of confidence in that technology.

[SPEAKER_03]: Hold it long term.

[SPEAKER_03]: But technically, right now, I like it.

[SPEAKER_03]: I like the momentum.

[SPEAKER_03]: But once again, I don't like those fundamentals.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm still not seeing analysts expecting earnings too.

[SPEAKER_03]: get much better.

[SPEAKER_03]: So sorry, lose 24 cents this year after losing 32 cents last year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So lose 20 cents next year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's improving, but not to a level that gets me excited to hold this longer.

[SPEAKER_03]: Once again, it's really all about technicals, if you're a trader, and as a trade, I don't like it.

[SPEAKER_03]: But from time to time, we'll receive questions via web form and tyrant from the UK says, Hi, Justin Aleuk.

[SPEAKER_03]: Rio Tinto is up near its one year high, but with a price of gold and silver still re rising, will reo still improve on its position.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm up 20% and the next dividend drop is a while away.

[SPEAKER_03]: I feel like I could take the money and reinvest in something else if it's nearing at the top.

[SPEAKER_03]: Most hard assets are starting to rally.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's pretty clear that the debasement trade is on, and if you have exposure to 100 assets, well, you're likely to do better.

[SPEAKER_03]: And Rio is a $109 billion market cap.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's one of the largest diversified mining companies in the world.

[SPEAKER_03]: mainly iron ore.

[SPEAKER_03]: So iron ore is 51% of their revenue, aluminum is 24.

[SPEAKER_03]: Copper is 16, so that's probably where you're getting the move right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: If not insignificant exposure, to copper, then 9% of the revenue comes from elsewhere, gold, silver, and other byproducts.

[SPEAKER_03]: So mainly this is an iron ore name with a good amount of aluminum in a decent amount of copper.

[SPEAKER_03]: I rather own something that's more of a pure play.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would rather own a copper producer where the majority and probably the overwhelming majority of the revenue comes from copper.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I like this because I like commodity producers right now because the devaluation and just

[SPEAKER_03]: However, this wouldn't be my number one play or near the top of it.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I would be selling it, but switching it out into a Goldish Silver Name, a Copper Name, something that's more peer play in the metals that

[SPEAKER_03]: Our scarcer that have more consistent demand, et cetera, iron ore, historically is not a great material to produce its, has abundant supply and yeah, I just wouldn't be having exposure to that metal.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now let's focus on social security, taking social security.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now the average advisor economists will say, you should probably delay taking social security until 70.

[SPEAKER_03]: and the typical reason for that is Social Security is, especially today's day and age, one of the only inflation-protected guaranteed income sources that most Americans have access to.

[SPEAKER_03]: Even if you have a pension, most of that pension is static.

[SPEAKER_03]: Is your pension, you get this a month, much per month, and that's it.

[SPEAKER_03]: Doesn't grow with inflation like Social Security does.

[SPEAKER_03]: Social Security, cold adjustments.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you can take Social Security at 62 and get 2100, well if you wait till 67, you can get 3,000.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if you wait all the way till 70, you get $3720.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then the coal adjustments are on the higher amount.

[SPEAKER_03]: But despite what the average divisor economists might say, not a lot of retirees wait.

[SPEAKER_03]: All the way to 70, only 10% in 2022, only 10% of Americans waited to take Social Security until they were 70.

[SPEAKER_03]: And 29% claimed it at the age of 62.

[SPEAKER_03]: And 61% claimed it before full retirement, so before 67.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now are all those people wrong?

[SPEAKER_03]: just because the general consensus is the way.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think the simple answer is, no, I don't think they're all grown.

[SPEAKER_03]: Depends on everyone's situation.

[SPEAKER_03]: And there are some underappreciated factors to taking it earlier.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now most people assume Social Security featured dollars or worth almost the same as they are today, discounting them by a small amount, because you think, well, that cash is,

[SPEAKER_03]: Just going to be invested in cash with the lower turn.

[SPEAKER_03]: But the reality is that most people, when they take social security, they have other assets and they're able to keep those assets in their IRA, the form, a kid, etc., and grow their assets well above inflation.

[SPEAKER_03]: Most portfolios are returning 5% in real terms or more.

[SPEAKER_03]: So when you start to discount those future dollars by 5% is that a 2% well, the math starts to work more in the favor of taking earlier.

[SPEAKER_03]: But the discount aspect to it.

[SPEAKER_03]: Not clear cut, but when you're looking a little bit more reality, it does make some sense.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's certain instances to maybe take it a little earlier.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you need the money, then it's longevity, a huge factor in this is your health.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you're going to live well into your 90s because you work out every day, you eat well, you don't have many underlying health conditions, especially when you get into your mid

[SPEAKER_03]: Probably makes sense, because you're going to get that for a long period of time, but not everyone is lucky to go into their 60s with great health.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if you claim Social Security earlier, you're able to preserve more money in your portfolio, and a more flexibility on how you want to spend that money.

[SPEAKER_03]: Social Security, pensions, and newbies, et cetera, but only 50% of portfolio income.

[SPEAKER_03]: So what's saying is the earlier you take it, the more you are encouraged to spend earlier in retirement.

[SPEAKER_03]: And enjoy your retirement, especially not just your lifespan, but your health span.

[SPEAKER_03]: Talk about all the time.

[SPEAKER_03]: Is your money is there to make your life better.

[SPEAKER_03]: not just to accrue in your bank account.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so you have to marry that money with the ability to go out and spend it and enjoy all of that spending.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so if you take it earlier and you're able to enjoy life a little more, well at the end of the day, I think that's more important.

[SPEAKER_03]: So remember, all of these, and this is something we do with clients, is kind of talk this out, there is a quantitative factor, quantitative aspect to this, both retirement planning as well as investing, and a qualitative aspect as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: So make sure you're thinking of both when you are making a decision once getting either investing or retirement planning.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's say a live call from Thomas from Santa Cruz looking at a NGPY.

[SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, hi Justin.

[SPEAKER_08]: I'm calling about one of my winners.

[SPEAKER_08]: I'm up over a hundred percent on this company.

[SPEAKER_08]: I have some losses.

[SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, thank you.

[SPEAKER_08]: Basically, I'm calling because it's up eight percent today.

[SPEAKER_08]: It's come up pretty quickly.

[SPEAKER_08]: I've had it for, I mean, over a year, so long-term gains on it.

[SPEAKER_08]: I basically just call in for a sanity check on this, I mean I would love to hold it, I mean for a long, long, long time but I'm kind of just feeling like it has gone up a lot lately, especially with an 8% today just if anything, I should be aware about if you know anything about this or if there's something where it's just getting way beyond its means

[SPEAKER_03]: We're looking at Valtara Platinum, engages in the supply of Platinum group of metals.

[SPEAKER_03]: Platinum, palladium, rodium, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_03]: 12 dollars per share.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's 103% over the last year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that's why you're at over 100%.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let me look at the chart here.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm the chart has good momentum.

[SPEAKER_03]: The question would be, what percentage are overall account?

[SPEAKER_03]: Is this great?

[SPEAKER_08]: This company specifically is three and a half percent, but precious metals in general.

[SPEAKER_08]: I know this one is diversified.

[SPEAKER_08]: I got this for a rebound on the platinum and palladium when everyone was thinking that,

[SPEAKER_08]: I mean, no one's going to use like gas cars anymore, or that was what was being priced into the platinum and palladium market.

[SPEAKER_08]: So I feel like we're kind of getting out of that now, but precious metals in general are starting to become a pretty big part of my portfolio, which I don't hate right now, and that kind of medium term, but again, I want to be aware of companies that are kind of getting beyond like reality of their earnings relative to their company size.

[SPEAKER_08]: So I was basically calling about this one.

[SPEAKER_08]: This was like my high-risk, small, small, little company.

[SPEAKER_08]: I know it's like $17 billion company, but I wanted to just check in with this one.

[SPEAKER_08]: I called about this, I mean, like over a year ago, you guys gave it a thumbs up.

[SPEAKER_08]: I did a bunch of research into it and just pulled the trigger and it paid off, but I don't know if I want to keep it riding or trim it a bit or I'm just kind of just, again,

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, well, I'll give you a resistance level, and that's around $14.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it just cleared the about a $11 level, which was one major resistance level.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think there's major resistance till about 14.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I would, that's the area that I might trim it a little bit as I'll close today, it's 12.07.

[SPEAKER_03]: So you still have, you know, another 15 to 20% upside from here until you get to that level, and that's where I would probably trimming it.

[SPEAKER_03]: I like the space earnings continue to be projected to go higher into next year and beyond.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I have no problem holding it, you know, it's a name that was in the dildrums for a while.

[SPEAKER_03]: And when this happens, these moves can be bigger than you think.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I would hold it, but trim it a little bit at 14, maybe down to 3% here, hopefully.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is Invest.com.

[SPEAKER_03]: Just in Clim, we have one goal here each every week day, and it's helped you achieve your own version of financial freedom.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I want to work continues after this final break.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's get your questions in.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Call any time 24-7, invest talk, 8-8-9-9, chart.

[SPEAKER_07]: Hi, don't go for the New York.

[SPEAKER_07]: Thank you for all that you do.

[SPEAKER_07]: I have a quick question on fixed income idea.

[SPEAKER_07]: I'm expanding my fixed income like brokerage inside of it is a one-month treasury that I kind of like recycle and have more one-month treasuries.

[SPEAKER_07]: Gold and I also have SGOV.

[SPEAKER_07]: My one-month treasury just expired and I'm thinking about continuing that idea of just like buying another treasury.

[SPEAKER_07]: I kind of like just put the extra couple of bucks into gold or SKV.

[SPEAKER_07]: I wanted to know your two cents.

[SPEAKER_07]: I know stocks are becoming really unbelievably expensive.

[SPEAKER_07]: Should I just not invest in that one month treasury and just put it all into gold too?

[SPEAKER_07]: Just looking for some two cents with a fixed income strategy.

[SPEAKER_07]: Thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_07]: And have a good day.

[SPEAKER_07]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_03]: gold historically is a great inflation hedge more importantly a debasement hedge.

[SPEAKER_03]: And there are a lot of people that think the traditional 60 40 portfolio is dead and that you should take that 40% that is typically in fixed income and put it into gold, not all of it, but half of it in gold.

[SPEAKER_03]: So a lot of people think it should be 60, 2020.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I have a lot of, I sympathize with that.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you've been listening to show for any length of time, you know that I've been bullish on gold well before this recent run.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, how much should you have?

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, you said it's a fixed income portfolio, what gold's not fixed income, sorry.

[SPEAKER_03]: Even though I, even then over extended periods of time, I actually like gold, a lot more than most fixed income.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's just not fixed income.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it depends on what your goal is for this portfolio, in this money.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're investing in a short-term treasury, so it sounds like you need liquidity, stability, you want that consistent income.

[SPEAKER_03]: And while the goal is great, and I'm bullish on it over the long term, goal that's 4,000 now could easily pull back to 353,000.

[SPEAKER_03]: Very possible, especially if you get a risk off liquidity environment.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I feel like the rest of your portfolio is well, and so that's the way I have to answer it.

[SPEAKER_03]: I can't give you an answer, unless I look at the whole portfolio, is what the portfolio reviews are about.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is why we offer them to our listeners.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's to look at the big picture, and then I could give you a better sense of how much you should put in gold.

[SPEAKER_03]: If it's very little right now, and then I would probably put more.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, let's squeeze in one more question.

[SPEAKER_05]: Now, hey, in this talk, my name is John Parker, and I'm calling about a stock symbol NVO.

[SPEAKER_05]: It's popped up on my radar, and it looks like it's gaining quite a bit of traction, and that looks pretty bullish.

[SPEAKER_05]: I was wondering what are your long-term hold opinion about it.

[SPEAKER_05]: Again, NVO.

[SPEAKER_05]: Like, go here, you're feedback on podcast.

[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_03]: All right, looking at NVO, Novo Nordisk, and this is actually a name that we've discussed.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've bounced back and forth internally about buying after this pull back.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's been recent, peaked out at $140 per share in that range, just last summer.

[SPEAKER_03]: But it's been on a downtrend.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's down 50% from it's 52 week high, down around 60 bucks.

[SPEAKER_03]: And one of the reasons we didn't buy it is because we aren't seeing positive momentum.

[SPEAKER_03]: It just continues to be in a downtrend.

[SPEAKER_03]: And estimates for next year continue to come down this year and next year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So growth is expected to slow considerably, and that's why the multiple has contracted.

[SPEAKER_03]: But those multiples are now becoming a bit more attractive.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it is on our radar, to buy.

[SPEAKER_03]: but we actually went with another name within the health care space.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it's been the right move.

[SPEAKER_03]: I actually've done better already than this would have performed.

[SPEAKER_03]: So what you want to do is line up the fundamentals and the momentum in the stock.

[SPEAKER_03]: And ideally, you want the earnings trends to turn as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: And we're not seeing, they're an exchange, we're not seeing the momentum in the stock.

[SPEAKER_03]: turn from bad to good, still bad.

[SPEAKER_03]: And until then, until those things change, there remains on the sidelines, it remains on our watch list, but life is you're looking at it, and we'll keep it on your watch list.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, that about it doesn't.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm just inclined and if they show me to think about your own financial picture in any way, your sister.

[SPEAKER_03]: Your strategy, like we talked about a little bit before if you're exposure to insular AI plays, whatever it is, we are here to help bring clarity and confidence to your overall plan and your strategy through our no-cost portfolio reviews, which you can schedule by heading over to invest.com, click on the portfolio review button.

[SPEAKER_03]: And we think you've really seen we encourage you to tell your friends

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[SPEAKER_03]: Be sure to rate and review on iTunes as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Independent thinking should success.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's the best talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Good night.

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