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[SPEAKER_02]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers, this is invest talk, independent thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor, Justin Klein.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to invest talk.

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[SPEAKER_03]: This is our Thursday October 9, 2025 edition and we are salty into the fourth quarter.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Soon everybody will be buying Halloween costumes and Halloween candy comes up fast.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I know we're already looking at

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[SPEAKER_03]: You know, office holiday events, activities, and we're rapidly going to embark on a new year soon.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So this is an interesting time.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's a time to kind of refocus as we into the final stretch of the year.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And to prepare for that new year that usually brings different challenges, different trends.

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[SPEAKER_03]: and make sure that you're rebalancing properly, understanding the risks in your portfolio, understanding the opportunities that are out there.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So that's what this show is about.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's about giving you perspective and data answering your finance and investment questions so that you are prepared.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Not just for this quarter or the next, but for years ahead.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now just to be able to talk about today's market performance, but as usual, we'll tackle this call a question first.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Hey, Justin, and Luke, this is Rob calling from Las Vegas.

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[SPEAKER_04]: With cash and fixed income rates starting to move lower, I'm looking at some option strategies like covered calls that can possibly enhance equity income.

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[SPEAKER_04]: I was hoping that you could look at an ETF for me.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Took a symbol is dy, LG.

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[SPEAKER_04]: It's the global dial, 30 cover call, and growth ETF.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Just wanted to get your thoughts on this particular ETF and the strategy moving forward.

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[SPEAKER_04]: I'll be listening to your answer on the next podcast.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks a lot.

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[SPEAKER_03]: All right, looking at the global x-dow 30 cover call and growth ETF and this is simply a covered call strategy on the Dow Jones industrial average.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now let me back up and talk about cover calls and now we've run a cover call strategy called equity comps.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's great, but most people, especially with these new products that are out here like this one, they're not understanding

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[SPEAKER_03]: the strategy at all and they're getting distracted by the shiny object of what the with the yield looks like you'll say hey it has this particular yield and they'll get caught up in that and the reality of the situation is most of the time that's not actual yield

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now, there is income coming in for it to the portfolio by selling the cover calls that's what we do.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But it really has a different mechanism.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's really a mechanism to dampen volatility and that can dampen volatility in both directions.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Understand that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And it also enhance performance, especially in times where markets are chopier, or even trending down,

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[SPEAKER_03]: And you get an edge because you're selling those call options and you're keeping the premium for the most part.

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[SPEAKER_03]: In a market like this with a churning higher, it's gonna hold back to performance a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And so you have to be okay with that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And understand that, yeah, here to date, this is only up 7.5%.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now if I go look at the Dow,

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[SPEAKER_03]: actually, not doubt chemical, DIA, which is the Dow Jones industrial average, and I look at the performance for the year.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It is up to 10.8%.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So you can see it's underperforming the overall market now.

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[SPEAKER_03]: You have to be okay with that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: That's what you want to look at.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Any of these cover call ETFs, whether it's on a particular sector, especially when it's

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[SPEAKER_03]: Don't pay attention to the yield at all, at all.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's going to cloud your judgment.

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[SPEAKER_03]: What you want to look at is total return.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And frankly, that's the case for the vast majority of anything you're looking.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And so,

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's very easy to get caught up in that dividend yield and make also think that it's safer, right?

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[SPEAKER_03]: You can still have bad years, 2022, for example, see if the servers are round in 2022.

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[SPEAKER_03]: No, it's not, okay.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But most cover call ETFs were still down.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So it's because they had yield, they were still told return.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It was down because the market was down.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So I'd say this all the time.

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[SPEAKER_03]: focus on what the asset class has invested in, what the ETF has invested in, or what the individual company businesses, and focus on the quality there, and the value, and the trends within the sector in the individual company, or the asset class, that's far more important than some big shiny yield.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now, we have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes that our main focus point is about mortgage rates dropping, put a reserves recent rate cut, means that analyst from Fannie Mae and the NAHB National Association of Home Builders there, upgrading the forecast or updating their forecast to what the mortgage rates will be for this year next year and beyond.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So we'll look at those forecasts with that ultimately will mean for the housing market with other topics on the docket.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, a week, but just didn't get it never got to it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And it's really in regards to kind of a similar thing to these, the Comber Collie test, but the leverage ETFs that are very, very popular.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And what the additional costs are to running them.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And then what is, what is the recent rally in gold?

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[SPEAKER_03]: What does it have to do with Japan?

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[SPEAKER_03]: We'll talk about that potentially.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And then if we have time, during the government shutdown, there are other economic data points to look at besides what would normally be releases from the government.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So we'll look at all of that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Plus, voice bank calls, one as on data sources, the other is on Starbucks.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And of course, we have some questions that came in from the comment section over on the invest talk YouTube channels.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Well, most importantly, I welcome your finance investment questions right now on a invest talk at 80, 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But before we go to our first break, I want you to know that you will probably making several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But before you do,

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[SPEAKER_03]: You can have two options.

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[SPEAKER_03]: One, you could schedule portfolio review with myself or Luke or you could have her to head over to her website and take a look at our comprehensive 2025 Q4 economic and market outlook report just came out.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's a free read.

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[SPEAKER_03]: You head over there, you're good at prompt.

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[SPEAKER_03]: You'll be able to download it, and it's posted right now on investor.com.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now, we're moving into a break.

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[SPEAKER_03]: My phone lines are open for you at 8.8, 9.9 chart.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Serious investors are certain to have, finance, and investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_06]: What do you think is a good price?

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[SPEAKER_06]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

08:32.849 --> 08:38.372
[SPEAKER_04]: Now it's wondering from your standpoint, they're at downside in buying fractional shares versus whole shares.

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[SPEAKER_06]: and 24-7 rain or shine, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But technically, right now, I like it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I like the momentum.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But what's gonna don't like those fundamentals?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now, while gold is hitting these record highs, it's driven by the safe, even demand by central bank buying across the board.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Your participation makes an invest talk better.

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[SPEAKER_05]: I'm calling to ask about core in Maine.

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[SPEAKER_05]: This is Josh and North Carolina.

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[SPEAKER_05]: This is Marlow from George City area.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Let's take a live call, Sam from San Jose.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So don't forget to call, Invest talk.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Great advice, thank you.

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[SPEAKER_06]: 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Justin Klein is here, and he's ready with answers to your finance and investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Call in Vestalk 888-99 chart.

09:37.817 --> 09:44.184
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's go take a look at the market today, a very interesting day overall, and it was negative.

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[SPEAKER_03]: First negative day in a little while, and you had the NASDAQ down 18 points, only eight basis points, 0.08%, S&P down a little over a quarter percent, and then,

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[SPEAKER_03]: Excuse me, the Dow is down a little over half percent.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Small cops down the most down about six tenths of one percent treasuries were weaker with yields up about one basis point overall.

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[SPEAKER_03]: The third year note auction tailed by point point four basis point.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So you're starting to see a little treasuring market dysfunction, nothing too crazy.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But there are some signs that the market isn't loving

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[SPEAKER_03]: on sales, especially in the long end.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Goldfinish down to 0.4% now back below 4,000 in ounce.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's very interesting.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I talked about this back in April when Gold was in the cover of Barriance, and we've owned Gold for a while now.

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[SPEAKER_03]: killing it with it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But back then, I was like, okay, well, if it's hitting a front of barids, it needs a cooling off period.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And that really started a three-month consolidation phase into July before it started really breaking out in August.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And so you're starting to see it again, a lot of headlines around goals talking about it on CNBC and in elsewhere.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And obviously the

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[SPEAKER_03]: is a magnet for price, and it makes for big headlines.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But usually, that when you see the headlines, you're a little late to the game, at least in the short term.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Just like an April doesn't mean that you don't buy it, but know that you're probably going to get a better entry point in the coming weeks and months.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I'm so bullish that I still think gold goes to $5,000, maybe even higher, per ounce, in the coming year or two.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But do we get a pullback into the 35s?

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[SPEAKER_03]: 3600 level on gold?

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[SPEAKER_03]: In the medium term, I wouldn't shop me at all, especially now with a dollar getting a bid here.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Dollar next is up 0.5% on the day, and that kind of sparked a pullback in a lot of the Commodity names.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And

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[SPEAKER_03]: It does look like we're starting that overdue pullback, but if you zoom out, it's still in an uptrend and dips likely should be bought.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Bitcoin features were down to percent, that was interesting, WTI crudes that'll doff 1.7% but still up nicely for the week.

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[SPEAKER_03]: you had what else do we have?

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[SPEAKER_03]: We are going to head into earnings season, I believe that's next week.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So be on the lookout for that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But not a whole lot of economic news to really speak of, especially with the government shut down.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And we did have looks like we're getting some sort of

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[SPEAKER_03]: To sentiment in markets.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's now speaking of sentiment.

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[SPEAKER_03]: We'll get consumer sentiment tomorrow But this is kind of a quiet season until we get to earnings.

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[SPEAKER_03]: We are going into blackout periods as well.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's where companies can't buy back shares that usually because there is a consistent bid to shares

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[SPEAKER_03]: In the markets, it can often be a time of softness before earning season because you don't have that consistent bid because the black and period.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So be in the lookout for that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So when that shock me to see a modest pullback in markets as we head into Q3 earnings season, then you probably know that you get we get questions from the YouTube comment section of our investment talk channel.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And here's what I came in earlier.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Greg says, I'm looking at opening position LKQ, LKQ, with a downsizing and consumer and corporate spending starting to form.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I've been thinking about impacts on new and use vehicle sales.

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[SPEAKER_03]: LKQ could be in position to take advantage of the most of more people and companies beginning to repair their vehicles versus approaching replacement vehicles.

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[SPEAKER_03]: What are your thoughts?

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[SPEAKER_03]: This should be aftermarket replacement parts to collision repair shops and mechanical repair shops.

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[SPEAKER_03]: If I remember correctly, isn't this what first brands did the recent large bankruptcy?

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[SPEAKER_03]: LKQ is in a strong downtrend.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Roll to strength is nine.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's right near 52 week low.

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[SPEAKER_03]: earnings are supposed to fall 10% this year.

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[SPEAKER_03]: bounce back 9% this year, but that's far off now.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I don't see a reason jump it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Why try to catch this falling knife?

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[SPEAKER_03]: I wouldn't do it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Especially if you look at it that doesn't have about $6 billion in debt on its balance sheet that it needs to carry.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's free cash flow.

14:34.122 --> 14:39.609
[SPEAKER_03]: It's solid at $676 million, but that has been on a state of decline since it's peak in 2021.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So,

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[SPEAKER_03]: I don't like it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I see no reason to jump in.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I understand a bit of your theory around it, but you have to see the backed up by Transin earnings, trends in the chart, et cetera, and you're just not seeing that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So I would say absolutely not an LKQ.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now, I'm moving you to a break still to come.

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[SPEAKER_03]: I feel because point and more answers to your questions.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So I encourage you to call right now on the best stock at 8.99 chart.

15:19.519 --> 15:27.945
[SPEAKER_06]: Invest Talk Innovators, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, Interview Company Leaders, Founders, and Visionaries.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So head over to the Invest Talk YouTube channel and look for Invest Talk Innovators.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Justin Klein is here now and ready to answer your financial investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Call Invest Talk 888-99-Chart.

15:50.356 --> 16:01.780
[SPEAKER_03]: our main focus point today is on mortgage rates and will they keep dropping other peaks in January a little over seven percent on average is talking about the 30 year fixed mortgage rate.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And they were hanging in the upper sixes for most of the year, but as of late, they've headed lower and are knocking on the door of a five handle.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now I am seeing some types of loans with a five handle meaning starting with five point something five point nine five point nine five point eight seven five et cetera.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But the average in the final week of at least September was about 6.3%.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And this is on the back of the Fed clearly signaling

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[SPEAKER_03]: kind of revake that's continuing in this month in October, we've worked on the 29th of October.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And then one more in December.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now, one thing you have to understand about mortgage rates.

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[SPEAKER_03]: is that what you want to look at is the 10 year usually falls a 10 year and remember the market is pricing in the these rate cuts.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So it's not like the Fed's going to cut rates and it's just going to automatically mean lower mortgage rates as soon as they cut.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Remember the market is priced this in.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So that's why you saw mortgage rates at

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[SPEAKER_03]: 6.26 at the end of the second week of full week of September, it got us up to 6.34 and now they're back to 6.3.

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[SPEAKER_03]: There hasn't been much of reaction to that Fed rate cut last month, because it was once again, it was priced in.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now for most people, the question is, what does this mean for the housing market?

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[SPEAKER_03]: Most people don't aren't having to worry about buying a house or

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[SPEAKER_03]: Why?

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[SPEAKER_03]: Because 40% of homes in this country are sold off or paid off.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And another 40% refinance in 2020 or 2021, you want to have a mortgage rate locked in it around the 3% level.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So that leaves only 20% of inventory out there.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Does it do mortgage rates impact them much at all?

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now maybe some of those people pass away, their kids, those that inherit that home, they sell it, et cetera, that can happen, yes.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But that's very minor.

18:34.779 --> 18:39.060
[SPEAKER_03]: Most 99% of the 80% is just sticking there.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So when mortgage rates drop,

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[SPEAKER_03]: It can make affordability a bit better.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It has, and you're already starting to see buyers come off the sidelines a bit.

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[SPEAKER_03]: If you look at volumes, they are taking up a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And prices are coming down a little bit in most markets.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But the affordability issue is not going away unless you get back to 3% orgages, which I don't think that's going to happen.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And so what you're likely to see is the next three to five years, the housing market will stare, step lower in a very orderly fashion, not in an O8 massive drop, but prices dropping in three to five percent in any given market, maybe mortgage rates dip a little bit, and the marginal buyer can now afford that home and volumes tick up a little bit.

19:37.585 --> 19:38.605
[SPEAKER_03]: but that impacts cops.

19:39.526 --> 19:45.807
[SPEAKER_03]: And then the next people that want to list their homes are looking at those cops that are 3% to 5% lower from the previous year.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And then their house stays in the market a little too long because they're still not enough buyers and they'll cut and eventually that's how this will likely evolve.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And in five years, overall housing prices have corrected 15 to 20% in most markets,

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[SPEAKER_03]: incomes generally go higher because of inflation and you meet in the middle.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And that's the reality.

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[SPEAKER_03]: We're not getting an o8, despite what you might have seen in the headlines, you might watch some newer YouTube videos or things like that.

20:18.604 --> 20:21.825
[SPEAKER_03]: There will be issues, but it's not o8.

20:23.269 --> 20:25.710
[SPEAKER_03]: because there's not bad lending.

20:26.470 --> 20:31.951
[SPEAKER_03]: Like I said, 40% of the market has no debt tied to it.

20:31.971 --> 20:40.373
[SPEAKER_03]: 40% the other 40% has three% mortgage tied to it, which isn't being forced to sell and most of those people can afford that payment.

20:41.433 --> 20:43.654
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, should you wait for rates to fall to buy?

20:43.674 --> 20:44.814
[SPEAKER_03]: The simple answer is no.

20:45.794 --> 20:48.555
[SPEAKER_03]: Your home should be a utility to you.

20:49.243 --> 20:52.344
[SPEAKER_03]: And so if you check all the boxes, you can afford it.

20:52.904 --> 20:53.904
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, you should go and buy.

20:54.644 --> 21:01.586
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, the National Association of Hope Builders, they're looking at six, six, and a quarter, mortgage rate by the end of next year.

21:02.786 --> 21:13.648
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a lot of guest demands, but ultimately it's gonna be about the 10 year treasury market and how orderly it is and what in the inflation that name is look like over the next 12 months and how that moves markets.

21:14.822 --> 21:16.324
[SPEAKER_03]: Now the next investor talk we're looking to this question.

21:16.944 --> 21:21.389
[SPEAKER_03]: AI's copper consumption is the data center boom driving a looming supply crunch.

21:21.829 --> 21:29.016
[SPEAKER_03]: The rapid global build out of AI power data centers, which are significantly more copper intensive for power and pooling the traditional facilities.

21:29.417 --> 21:32.700
[SPEAKER_03]: It's at the clash with the years of under investment in new minds.

21:33.421 --> 21:36.664
[SPEAKER_03]: That's story tomorrow, but for now I'm Justin Klein and ready to take your calls now at 8.89 chart.

21:48.046 --> 21:49.406
[SPEAKER_06]: The calls are free.

21:49.927 --> 21:52.067
[SPEAKER_06]: The unbiased answers are free.

21:52.588 --> 21:54.688
[SPEAKER_06]: So what are you waiting for?

21:55.228 --> 21:57.129
[SPEAKER_06]: Call in Vestock, 888-99, chart.

21:57.269 --> 22:02.051
[SPEAKER_05]: Hey, I'm calling in about S.B.U.X.

22:02.771 --> 22:04.111
[SPEAKER_05]: Starbucks Corporation.

22:04.732 --> 22:14.795
[SPEAKER_05]: I know that the current backdrop of the world right now might not be favoring Starbucks, but there's not just a long-term support

22:15.419 --> 22:34.843
[SPEAKER_05]: I was just wondering what you guys thought about the $80 and all the way down to the $70 price point and where you'd be aggressively buying or more so considering Starbucks stock and the company given the consumer sentiment as well as the sentiment behind the company.

22:35.284 --> 22:37.164
[SPEAKER_05]: I'll be listening, thank you so much for falls well.

22:37.864 --> 22:40.285
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you for the call, looking at Starbucks' name.

22:40.345 --> 22:43.267
[SPEAKER_03]: We recently purchased, but also recently sold.

22:43.307 --> 22:46.389
[SPEAKER_03]: So your Reddit is near long-term support.

22:46.489 --> 22:48.089
[SPEAKER_03]: We bought it for a bounce.

22:48.189 --> 22:48.970
[SPEAKER_03]: We got the bounce.

22:49.190 --> 22:54.673
[SPEAKER_03]: We sold it because we didn't also see the bounce in earnings trends.

22:55.253 --> 22:59.956
[SPEAKER_03]: In fact, earnings trends continue to deteriorate.

22:59.976 --> 23:00.796
[SPEAKER_03]: And so we sold out of it.

23:00.816 --> 23:03.918
[SPEAKER_03]: Luckily, it was a modest profit.

23:05.383 --> 23:13.905
[SPEAKER_03]: Ultimately, the issue is that earnings continue to be downgraded for this year and next year.

23:14.586 --> 23:20.727
[SPEAKER_03]: So this fiscal, let's go fiscal 25 earnings are expected to be $2.17, since back in October of last year, earnings were expected to be $3.89.

23:20.767 --> 23:22.048
[SPEAKER_03]: So think about that.

23:31.702 --> 23:34.484
[SPEAKER_03]: a year ago, per full year fiscal 2025.

23:34.864 --> 23:38.766
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just to be 389, and it underperform when I'll wait down to 16.

23:39.727 --> 23:42.569
[SPEAKER_03]: That's what's expected, 2017, for the year.

23:44.290 --> 23:48.872
[SPEAKER_03]: Next year, earnings are expected to bounce back, to 263.

23:49.953 --> 23:53.915
[SPEAKER_03]: However, once again, last October, for 2025,

23:59.593 --> 24:06.236
[SPEAKER_03]: And you see this, you go all the way at 2037.

24:06.476 --> 24:10.257
[SPEAKER_03]: Sorry, 2027, $3.27, but those estimates continue to come down.

24:11.498 --> 24:12.718
[SPEAKER_03]: They're shutting down stores.

24:13.699 --> 24:18.401
[SPEAKER_03]: And I just think you have a situation where there's a lot of pressures.

24:18.721 --> 24:19.661
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a lot of stores.

24:20.841 --> 24:22.902
[SPEAKER_03]: The average consumer is getting squeezed.

24:23.703 --> 24:24.203
[SPEAKER_03]: They're making

24:25.904 --> 24:42.195
[SPEAKER_03]: they're coffee at home in many instances and their impocausts are going up labor the the goods that they're they're actually producing or buying into make the coffee make the drinks make the food etc.

24:43.256 --> 24:47.359
[SPEAKER_03]: So they're seeing a lot of pressures on their margins.

24:49.080 --> 24:51.742
[SPEAKER_03]: And the technicals are still not great.

24:52.443 --> 24:57.146
[SPEAKER_03]: Like I said, it rebounded from below around $71.

24:57.726 --> 24:58.927
[SPEAKER_03]: That was the long-term support.

24:59.508 --> 25:04.511
[SPEAKER_03]: And then rallied all the way to 116 and now has fallen back down into the 70s, high 70s.

25:05.572 --> 25:09.375
[SPEAKER_03]: So the technicals just remain too poor for my liking.

25:10.956 --> 25:15.379
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a great business, but it's a business that is under a lot of pressure.

25:16.208 --> 25:22.649
[SPEAKER_03]: And so until this resolves itself, I would keep it on the watch list, keep watching it in.

25:22.969 --> 25:25.690
[SPEAKER_03]: Frankly, it's still trading at a very high multiple.

25:26.470 --> 25:29.090
[SPEAKER_03]: To make 250 next year, it's still $7.00 stock.

25:29.690 --> 25:36.912
[SPEAKER_03]: A company that has negative earnings growth usually trades in the teens from a multiple perspective, maybe even into the single digits.

25:38.052 --> 25:42.813
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think this is the name that probably had at least into the 50s, maybe even into the 40s,

25:44.290 --> 25:50.735
[SPEAKER_03]: Then I'd start maybe thinking about it, but until then, I'm passing on Starbucks technicals and the earnings trends are just too poor.

25:51.536 --> 25:53.558
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's play two in a row from eight to eight that you need to check.

25:54.138 --> 25:59.362
[SPEAKER_07]: Hi, this is Andrew from Maine calling with a question about sources of data around stocks.

25:59.722 --> 26:07.229
[SPEAKER_07]: I've discovered this website called ROIC.ai, which I find to be pretty thorough in a

26:10.799 --> 26:24.083
[SPEAKER_07]: Which has basic data and then you can subscribe for a pretty reasonable amount on the annual basis and get a lot more data and I just wondered if you've had any thoughts about accuracy or any experience with it.

26:24.483 --> 26:24.683
[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks.

26:26.283 --> 26:32.105
[SPEAKER_03]: I have I don't have any experience with that in that website in particular.

26:32.585 --> 26:36.186
[SPEAKER_03]: We have our own tools from facts to morning star.

26:36.827 --> 26:41.631
[SPEAKER_03]: et cetera, that we pulled data from and we've been pulling data from for a long, long time.

26:42.371 --> 26:49.697
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, there's going to be more of these AI-driven platforms that I think have value.

26:50.117 --> 27:02.266
[SPEAKER_03]: The question is, how much additional value do they really have above and beyond normal check, GPT or perplexity or any of the other models that are out there?

27:03.498 --> 27:04.679
[SPEAKER_03]: And that I don't know.

27:05.719 --> 27:12.423
[SPEAKER_03]: What I will say is that it's very important for you to double check.

27:12.623 --> 27:14.964
[SPEAKER_03]: You're using AI, double check.

27:15.704 --> 27:21.087
[SPEAKER_03]: I think AI at this point, it's actually good, it's a good guide.

27:21.828 --> 27:23.869
[SPEAKER_03]: It can help push you in the right direction.

27:25.289 --> 27:29.512
[SPEAKER_03]: And bring data quickly and easily to the surface

27:33.038 --> 27:35.160
[SPEAKER_03]: but you need to know where they're pulling that.

27:35.561 --> 27:47.333
[SPEAKER_03]: From, one thing we use that I has been very helpful, now it's not perfect because it can be old data, but we can pull like complexity.

27:47.993 --> 27:51.317
[SPEAKER_03]: You can say I just want it to pull from SEC violence.

27:54.493 --> 27:57.375
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, once again, you have to verify it.

27:57.935 --> 27:59.916
[SPEAKER_03]: We verify it with faxet.

27:59.956 --> 28:01.817
[SPEAKER_03]: We verify with other sources, et cetera.

28:02.577 --> 28:09.981
[SPEAKER_03]: But making it clear where any AI is going to hold the data from is very important.

28:10.401 --> 28:15.664
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're just scraping it off the internet, that is probably not a good data source.

28:17.185 --> 28:20.367
[SPEAKER_03]: If it's pulling it directly from their SEC filings,

28:21.678 --> 28:27.403
[SPEAKER_03]: And official sources, academic studies, things like that, that is a lot more valuable.

28:27.983 --> 28:36.890
[SPEAKER_03]: Doesn't mean you don't check, doesn't mean you don't verify, but from my experience, you're as well as prone to those errors.

28:39.012 --> 28:50.441
[SPEAKER_03]: So I would explore that website but don't use it as gospel because all AI can be wrong.

28:51.322 --> 28:52.203
[SPEAKER_03]: Just like humans can be wrong.

28:52.903 --> 28:54.644
[SPEAKER_03]: So make sure you are double checking.

28:57.566 --> 29:01.848
[SPEAKER_03]: Now let's touch a bit on some ETFs that are very, very popular right now.

29:03.389 --> 29:09.472
[SPEAKER_03]: And these are the doubles, sometimes triple levered single stock ETFs.

29:12.574 --> 29:20.699
[SPEAKER_03]: And there's a lot of these on the quantum computing stocks, like regetti and D wave, et cetera.

29:23.025 --> 29:26.586
[SPEAKER_03]: And many of them are doing very well because those names are doing very well.

29:26.906 --> 29:28.366
[SPEAKER_03]: And people are chasing the returns.

29:30.427 --> 29:32.928
[SPEAKER_03]: Some of them have a 100% and a single day.

29:35.228 --> 29:43.650
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, if you look at the expense ratios for most of these, you're going to see something that looks fairly reasonable.

29:45.371 --> 29:47.431
[SPEAKER_03]: One, one and a half percent, et cetera.

29:51.737 --> 29:52.817
[SPEAKER_03]: the devil's and the details here.

29:54.078 --> 30:00.020
[SPEAKER_03]: Because there are undisclosed costs, second hit, 15 to 20% annually.

30:02.301 --> 30:02.681
[SPEAKER_03]: annually.

30:02.721 --> 30:03.541
[SPEAKER_03]: Now where does this come from?

30:05.082 --> 30:08.043
[SPEAKER_03]: It basically comes from how they create the leverage.

30:09.704 --> 30:16.046
[SPEAKER_03]: They use instruments called total return swaps that magnify the returns of the underlying asset.

30:17.978 --> 30:19.479
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, where do they go and buy these from?

30:19.979 --> 30:25.982
[SPEAKER_03]: They buy them from banks, big banks, but service these companies.

30:28.223 --> 30:33.626
[SPEAKER_03]: And the riskier the underlying stock, the more these returns swap to cost.

30:33.686 --> 30:33.946
[SPEAKER_03]: Why?

30:33.986 --> 30:37.988
[SPEAKER_03]: Because the bank has to go in out there in hedge, their risk.

30:39.649 --> 30:42.050
[SPEAKER_03]: And they pass along that risk.

30:45.335 --> 30:48.317
[SPEAKER_03]: or that cost in a higher price for those return swaps.

30:50.338 --> 30:57.003
[SPEAKER_03]: In many instances, the cost for the swaps is 1.7% of the total assets monthly.

30:59.125 --> 30:59.465
[SPEAKER_03]: Monthly.

31:00.005 --> 31:07.851
[SPEAKER_03]: So while the expense ratio might be 1.3%, there are additional costs on top of that every single month.

31:07.871 --> 31:13.935
[SPEAKER_03]: So if the higher the implied volatility, the volatility within the particular name,

31:15.018 --> 31:33.493
[SPEAKER_03]: The more expensive these swaps are, and then if implied volatility rises, even more because of more hype or more speculation in the name, well, those total returns swaps suddenly become more expensive as well.

31:34.154 --> 31:37.877
[SPEAKER_03]: So the smaller the company typically, the higher the cost here.

31:38.792 --> 31:43.917
[SPEAKER_03]: doesn't mean that they're not high costs for bigger names like Apple and video, Tesla, etc.

31:44.177 --> 31:49.202
[SPEAKER_03]: Those are all, those are all the kind of the names that first started these single stock, Liberty TFs.

31:50.283 --> 31:59.832
[SPEAKER_03]: But increasingly, they're going into and launching these ETFs that are linked to smaller risk yearnings, especially connected to AI.

32:01.854 --> 32:02.454
[SPEAKER_03]: That's what I say.

32:03.442 --> 32:10.864
[SPEAKER_03]: It's typical for the total cost of of these funds to be 15, 20, 25% annual.

32:12.025 --> 32:19.847
[SPEAKER_03]: So not understanding the cost, make you believe something exists that doesn't.

32:20.467 --> 32:24.209
[SPEAKER_03]: But these are relatively low cost to gain leverage.

32:24.249 --> 32:24.609
[SPEAKER_03]: They're not.

32:26.509 --> 32:29.890
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, the fair, if you wanted to go and level up your position and

32:33.045 --> 32:36.026
[SPEAKER_03]: For example, it's going to cost you a lot from your broker.

32:36.326 --> 32:42.927
[SPEAKER_03]: So you are getting around that cost, but it's even more cost associated with these when you're buying these ETFs.

32:42.947 --> 32:54.670
[SPEAKER_03]: So know that all these leverage ETFs in general, whether it's a single stock or on a particular index, they're all trading vehicles, these are not things to buy and hold.

33:00.410 --> 33:05.635
[SPEAKER_01]: Hi, I'd like to ask about two mining companies, bear mining and wheat and precious metals.

33:06.016 --> 33:11.341
[SPEAKER_01]: I got into bear for about $17 a share and wheat and precious metals at $95 a share.

33:11.361 --> 33:18.808
[SPEAKER_01]: I would like to buy more of both stocks that they have been shooting straight up and I wonder if they're over bought or is there still room for runnin'.

33:19.309 --> 33:22.592
[SPEAKER_01]: And then at what point would you trim or take a profit?

33:22.952 --> 33:24.294
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for answering my question.

33:25.691 --> 33:31.392
[SPEAKER_03]: So we like both of these names, and we've owned wheat for a while.

33:31.453 --> 33:35.233
[SPEAKER_03]: We've owned Bear in the past, it could be a name we add at some point, again, in the future.

33:36.494 --> 33:41.235
[SPEAKER_03]: All the mining stocks are overbought, and you saw a pullback today.

33:43.236 --> 33:48.557
[SPEAKER_03]: As I said at the top of the show, it was pretty clear that we were getting pretty close to

33:50.795 --> 33:57.337
[SPEAKER_03]: a cooling off period, a consolidation period, a pullback period, and it looks like that started today.

34:01.078 --> 34:02.178
[SPEAKER_03]: So I would be patient on it.

34:03.818 --> 34:07.219
[SPEAKER_03]: I haven't bought gold miners for new clients in a few weeks.

34:10.120 --> 34:14.721
[SPEAKER_03]: But as these pullback to moving averages, especially

34:16.745 --> 34:17.926
[SPEAKER_03]: like weekly moving averages.

34:18.886 --> 34:21.128
[SPEAKER_03]: That's where I would want to pick these up.

34:22.829 --> 34:32.275
[SPEAKER_03]: So for example, the 58 moving average of wheat and is down around 80, close today around what 103.

34:34.537 --> 34:37.559
[SPEAKER_03]: So could it get a pullback into the mid 80s?

34:38.459 --> 34:40.081
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that would be a great spot to pick it up.

34:41.862 --> 34:43.643
[SPEAKER_03]: As for barric, same type of thing.

34:45.062 --> 34:47.203
[SPEAKER_03]: It's overstretched on the weekly chart.

34:48.884 --> 34:49.784
[SPEAKER_03]: Do for a pullback.

34:51.105 --> 34:52.465
[SPEAKER_03]: Do for a consolidation period.

34:53.626 --> 34:56.267
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's what we look like we're getting right now.

34:58.068 --> 35:03.330
[SPEAKER_03]: So all of these, if you've never dealt with gold miners, they can be very wild.

35:03.350 --> 35:06.331
[SPEAKER_03]: You can get a 20, 30% pullback in them like that.

35:07.792 --> 35:08.892
[SPEAKER_03]: But that even blinking in that.

35:10.133 --> 35:10.473
[SPEAKER_03]: And so,

35:12.348 --> 35:18.113
[SPEAKER_03]: Barric P36, now it's a 33, down 10% roughly already.

35:19.934 --> 35:22.436
[SPEAKER_03]: Could this get back into the 28 range?

35:22.677 --> 35:24.919
[SPEAKER_03]: That's where I would say is good support on Barric.

35:26.780 --> 35:28.662
[SPEAKER_03]: Those tackle a YouTube comment question.

35:30.003 --> 35:32.145
[SPEAKER_03]: Bisco, I love this name.

35:32.685 --> 35:34.486
[SPEAKER_03]: Bisco, disc it.

35:34.586 --> 35:36.331
[SPEAKER_03]: 24.

35:36.431 --> 35:36.711
[SPEAKER_03]: Love it.

35:37.211 --> 35:42.135
[SPEAKER_03]: Curious about a small cap, I came across the other day and what your take would be.

35:42.935 --> 35:53.062
[SPEAKER_03]: M-U-E-L-M-U-E-L is the symbol, and says it seems quite cheap even after some great performance the past year, which we're actually in the 40s.

35:53.162 --> 35:59.086
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't love it that's O-T-C with the other, but other than that, it seems like a solid company from the numbers I'm seeing.

35:59.126 --> 35:59.807
[SPEAKER_03]: What are your thoughts?

36:02.444 --> 36:03.204
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's take a look at this.

36:04.585 --> 36:06.326
[SPEAKER_03]: M-U-E-L.

36:07.867 --> 36:10.148
[SPEAKER_03]: Hall-M-U-L, hall-M-U-L, yeah.

36:10.248 --> 36:11.188
[SPEAKER_03]: O-T-C-Name.

36:12.289 --> 36:13.329
[SPEAKER_03]: Gaged, oh, wow.

36:13.450 --> 36:15.030
[SPEAKER_03]: This is quite the move.

36:15.651 --> 36:20.173
[SPEAKER_03]: In July of, let me go to a five-year chart for your chart.

36:20.793 --> 36:21.273
[SPEAKER_03]: There you go.

36:22.734 --> 36:23.975
[SPEAKER_03]: July of last year is the $80 per share.

36:23.995 --> 36:25.275
[SPEAKER_03]: Now at $437 per share, $400 million mark a cap,

36:34.372 --> 36:37.915
[SPEAKER_03]: go do a, yeah, I mean, yeah, you're right.

36:37.935 --> 36:44.079
[SPEAKER_03]: It does have a higher screen equity, free cash flow of 37 million on enterprise value of 360 million.

36:44.199 --> 36:46.281
[SPEAKER_03]: So you're talking about a 10% free cash flow yield.

36:47.782 --> 36:51.365
[SPEAKER_03]: I will say historically, it doesn't have this level of profitability.

36:52.105 --> 36:56.709
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's one worry is can it sustain this level of profitability?

36:59.331 --> 36:59.831
[SPEAKER_03]: But what does it do?

37:01.323 --> 37:06.649
[SPEAKER_03]: It makes dairy farm equipment, industrial equipment, field fabrication, transportation, etc.

37:06.709 --> 37:08.010
[SPEAKER_03]: So it's in the dairy industry.

37:10.092 --> 37:10.773
[SPEAKER_03]: I'd like to like that.

37:15.058 --> 37:21.344
[SPEAKER_03]: Cells directly to food, beverage, chemical, and industrial processing equipment by a pharmaceutical equipment and pure water equipment.

37:22.245 --> 37:22.606
[SPEAKER_03]: Puppetants.

37:24.331 --> 37:24.771
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm liking it.

37:25.872 --> 37:27.713
[SPEAKER_03]: I like the type of business it is.

37:28.093 --> 37:30.714
[SPEAKER_03]: The worry is like I said, can it sustain these margins?

37:30.774 --> 37:32.655
[SPEAKER_03]: I would have to really feel comfortable with that.

37:33.355 --> 37:40.159
[SPEAKER_03]: But everything else about it, valuation, the profitability, the balance sheet, the industry that it's in, I like it.

37:40.179 --> 37:46.181
[SPEAKER_03]: So I'm going to give M-U-E-L thumbs up, as long as you have confidence in its business.

37:46.642 --> 37:47.502
[SPEAKER_03]: Now we're heading into a break.

37:47.862 --> 37:49.323
[SPEAKER_03]: And we call it, it didn't, and you made a chart.

37:56.225 --> 38:06.732
[SPEAKER_06]: investor is working to build a secure financial future, how they get there, and when they get there, that depends on many factors.

38:07.273 --> 38:12.777
[SPEAKER_06]: The more you learn about how the market works, the better your chances for success.

38:13.477 --> 38:16.859
[SPEAKER_06]: So don't forget to call in Vestock, 888-99 chart.

38:22.803 --> 38:24.424
[SPEAKER_03]: It didn't 99 chart, it didn't 99, 2, 4, 2, 7, 8.

38:25.284 --> 38:28.565
[SPEAKER_03]: So they could do an ask your question before we close up shop today.

38:28.645 --> 38:32.766
[SPEAKER_03]: But barring a call, let's touch on gold.

38:34.047 --> 38:41.729
[SPEAKER_03]: Gold, as I said at the top of the show, this is due for a bit of a correction, a bit of a pullback, cooling off period, shall we say.

38:41.969 --> 38:45.350
[SPEAKER_03]: But the long-term trend is intact.

38:47.491 --> 38:49.791
[SPEAKER_03]: And let's talk about why?

38:52.573 --> 38:53.193
[SPEAKER_03]: a number of years.

38:56.055 --> 39:03.880
[SPEAKER_03]: Number one, post COVID, we saw the debasement trade that it was talking about today, it was clear back then.

39:04.140 --> 39:15.067
[SPEAKER_03]: It was that no matter what happened, the government was going to come in and point the bazooka markets and prevent any big deflationary spiral like OE.

39:21.980 --> 39:22.541
[SPEAKER_03]: debt crisis.

39:23.462 --> 39:37.476
[SPEAKER_03]: But the opposite, an inflationary crisis, and we had a taste of that in 2022, but the government had a bit of a way to calm that down a little bit about raising interest rates significantly.

39:38.436 --> 39:39.177
[SPEAKER_03]: But now, we're already there.

39:41.259 --> 39:43.922
[SPEAKER_03]: An inflation hasn't abated.

39:46.607 --> 39:54.389
[SPEAKER_03]: It bought uns in the mid-tos in the early summer and starting to re-excelerate in the back half of the sheer as once again, we expect it.

39:57.189 --> 40:00.750
[SPEAKER_03]: But this is not just about, you know, states, it's a worldwide phenomenon.

40:02.531 --> 40:06.291
[SPEAKER_03]: Gold is going up in price against every currency.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Because gold is the ultimate currency.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And Saturday we had a new Prime Minister in Japan.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And that pushed gold up once again.

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[SPEAKER_03]: That's not a coincidence.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Because the new Prime Minister, female, she said that she wants to keep her its low and she wants to dispense.

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[SPEAKER_03]: She wants to double down on fiscal dominance, just as what's happening here in the United States.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now, gold was in a consolidation period from the summer of 2020, all the way

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[SPEAKER_03]: the fall of 2023, and then it broke out to the upside.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now, the first real advanced started after the Ukraine war began, and Western governments froze Russian assets.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And so, foreign banks, foreign central banks, and foreign governments, they look for assets that could not be seized by another country in any way.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And that asset is gold, and it's taken up, took another leg higher during liberation day.

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[SPEAKER_03]: When the trade war really undermined the faith, and the US has a stabilizer to the global financial system backed by the dollar.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And then in August, you had a Fed that was the cut rates.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Despite inflation, well above 2% heading closer to three.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And then President Trump trying to fire Lisa Cook and push for a more delicious Fed.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And it's pretty clear that over the next six to nine months, there's going to be a shift to the

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[SPEAKER_03]: lower interest rates, lower dollar.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And so historic, historically gold has been an insurance vehicle, against geopolitical instability, as well as economic instability.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And that's what you're seeing right now in spades.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Gold is the best option besides the dollar.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But if you're losing faith in the United States and our ability to

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[SPEAKER_03]: to govern a controlled financial system.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Gold is the natural way to express that, to express that view.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And the eroding faith in all the anchors.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's not just the dollar, but the euro, the yen, et cetera.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And that's what this is about.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And so that's why everyone should have some exposure, they're gold.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe not today.

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[SPEAKER_03]: With consolidation period pullback, you have to be at it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Now I'm just inclined today show me to think about your own financial picture in any way your investments, taxes, retirement, whether it all really works, well, we offer a free, no cost portfolio review to help bring clarity and confidence to your situation.

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[SPEAKER_03]: You have enough gold, you have too much gold.

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[SPEAKER_03]: You have enough fixed income, not enough fixed income.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But whatever it is, we can talk about it.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So everything will be best to talk about how I'm going to click on the core filler review button.

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[SPEAKER_03]: We thank you for listening, we encourage you to tell your friends and family about a free podcast down those.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Independent thinking should success.

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[SPEAKER_03]: It's the best talk.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Good night.

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