hello everyone
and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always
Stan McCune realtor right here in Greenville
South Carolina
and you can find all of my contact information
in the show notes
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now
I had a little switcharoo that I pulled off this week
originally I was going to do a different episode
and I recorded that episode
and it is locked and loaded
ready to go
but the GGR market stats just came out
and I don't like to drag these out
any longer than they need
to be I have some people that listen
specifically for these stats
you guys know I'm a big stat guy
I'm a I'm a bit of a nerd
and so I'm
I'm going to be gonna have to come clean to you guys
I had told you guys that the
250 dollar Amazon gift card drawing was happening today
but you're actually going to have to wait another week
cause I already did
an entire episode around that drawing
and I'm not going to scrap all of that
and then redo it and no no no
no no no you guys can can wait until next week however
we are done with new entries
I would still greatly
appreciate if you guys could still leave me a review
on Zillow
which was you know the whole thing
if you left a review on Zillow
you'd be entered into a 250 dollar Amazon gift card
contest
I'd still greatly appreciate if you guys did that
you just won't be entered into the contest
from now on
and next week when the episode releases
it will be next week
the let's see here
probably October 22nd is when it'll come out
and people listening to that will have until October
the 24th at eleven
fifty nine PM to respond and to say that they
that they listen to the episode
or watch the episode and recognize that they
won the 250 dollar Amazon gift card
in that episode
I'm gonna say October 17th
I'll correct it in the show notes
but just know that
that will actually be October the 24th okay
so what are we talking about today
well I've already told you guys we're gonna be talk
talking about ooh talk talking my
I almost got a little New York on you guys there
for a second here
we're gonna be talking
about the Greater New York Association of Realtors
market stats
and there is some interesting stuff here and
we are just going to start right at the top
like we always do with new listings data
new listings data
we have been obviously on new listings
running hot all year
a lot of new listings
both new construction and resale new listings
and so
what we have for the month of September is
we had 2,301 new listings
that is by far a record for the month of September
22.8%
higher than the 1,874 new listings from September
a year ago huge
huge month of new listings a lot of people listing
listing their homes a lot of builders
listing homes during the month of September
this is what's causing inventory to continue to go up
this is part of what's causing pricing to
to not skyrocket right
it's this inventory this dynamic is very important
because it keeps the supply and demand balance
in a way that keeps the market affordable right
that's the
that's the the optimist way of looking at that now
the pessimist way of looking at that is
if you need to sell a home
you've got a lot more competition than you have
in recent years but that
it's been a good market to sell home in
for a long time we can endure a bear market
it's been a bear market now for a little bit
we will come out on the other side we'll be okay
pending sales this number is always
revised after a month
so we're gonna look back at August
August when the market sets for last month came out
August was at 8
67 that got revised up about 550 units to 1,418
which is right around where I predicted that would be
it I I predicted that would be around 14
and that's a slight decrease year over year
from the 1426 of August 2024
but very very close now importantly
this is the first August was the first month
of the year that we saw a dip
year over year in pending sales
down point six % 0.6%
every other month we've been positive year over year
however looking at the month of September
the unrevised number is 8 79
that'll probably get revised by close to 550
to 600 units again so we'll be in the 1400s again
and that's going to have a
that's gonna be a huge increase from September 2024
so pending sales low in August and listen
I saw this firsthand myself
August was a weird month okay
it just got really really slow September
particularly towards the end of September
things started to pick up
and here's what we're seeing in the data
we're going to see a massive once this gets revised
a massive increase
year over year for pending sales in September
because it was only 12
12 pending sales last September This September
I'm predicting it's gonna be in the 1400s
so that'll be a big that'll be
that might be our largest year on year increase
of the entire year of 2025
so we will
we'll come back next month with that close sales
September close sales came in at 1,576 big
big increase 20.6% increase of
from September of last year which was 1,307
so September was a huge month
in comparison to other years
or or in comparison to last year and
and kind of in comparison to some other years as well
I think maybe 2021
September might have been slightly higher possibly
but that was a really big
month of close sales for the month of September
and so it
you know again
this is one of those things right now
we're in this weird market
some of this data looks positive for buyers
some looks positive for sellers
it's really hard to tell exactly what it is
but in general
this is not a market that's really pleasing anyone
and that's why we're seeing the data and
and why we will continue to see the data
kind of all over the place
but a lot of closings
happened in the month of September
kind of unexpectedly
and based on the pending sales for September
I would expect that the the month of October
will probably be pretty strong as well
October of last year had 1,308
close sales
would not surprise me if we surpassed that number
as well in fact
we have surpassed every number from last year
with the exception of August
which was again just a weird month in general
days on market until sale okay
well here's one of the numbers
that is going in the buyer's direction okay
54 days on market until sale for the month of September
that was up 10.2%
from the 49 days that we had in September of last year
so it now takes nearly two months
right basically
seven to eight weeks
for your home to go under contract
from the time you put on the market
that feels like a long time
but historically it's really not that out of whack
from a historical perspective
we're we're kind of in line with
with general pre pandemic trends
so we'll continue to keep an eye on this
but that's just something a sellers need to be aware of
we've been in this environment where it's
you know been under
you know under 60 days
on market until sale for
for the majority of the past five years
we might see it go back above 60
at least perhaps in seasonal times right
seasonal slowdowns
that might be something that we start to see again
sellers just have to adapt to that
takes longer to sell your home
median sales price
we had the second largest year over year jump
in the median sales price for the month of September
it was 3:19 this is a weird number 3:19
9:00 19 so 319,919
that was a three and a half percent increase
from the 309 thousand
number that we had for the median sales price
September 2024
so that's a sizable jump so now
so basically 3:20 right now
I mean we have been steadily in the 315,000 dollar
to 330 thousand dollar threshold
basically since February of this year
and so
you know the
obviously
you hear a lot of doomers out there that are saying
prices are gonna come down
prices are gonna come down
and as we've talked about
new construction has caused prices to come down
in a sense
but when we're looking at the data on the meta level
right we're looking at the entire
Greater Greenville Association of Realtors
three and a half percent increase
year over year for the month of September
and the rolling 12 month average is a 1.3%
or the rolling 12 month median is 1.3% increase
so
like it or not prices are still going up
now as I've told you guys before
that doesn't mean that every area is seeing prices
going up not every neighborhood
not every house not every
you know subdivision
not not everything is going up right
we're looking at data from a top level
if we had median sales prices at 3.5% increases
year over year and above for the entire year
generally speaking that would be a market
where the entire market is appreciating
but we've had so many of these months where the
where the median sales price
has only increased by 2% or less
and when you're in a market like that
that means that some areas
and some homes are appreciating by 5
6 7% and others have negative appreciation some are
are losing value
and so again we're looking at medians that's the
it's the most accurate way and
and the best way for us to to gauge this
but it's not perfect
it doesn't apply to every single home and average
which is the next one here
especially doesn't our average came in
with the highest average we've ever had
in the Greater Gwinnett Association of Realtors
423,495 dollars
was the average sales price for the month of September
a whopping 11.8% increase from the
378,799 average that we had in September of last year
so that was
that increased by almost $50,000
I mean that is an insane increase year over year
I'm not exactly sure what's driving that again
the average in my opinion
is not as accurate as the median
when gauging what the market is doing
that's still a very interesting number
and out of all of the the things that we're looking at
this is the thing that is like the record right
we've never had a month where
where we've hit 423,000 as the average sales price
I believe the
the previous high was 414,000 back in October of
of last year
and so we just hit 423,400
we've never gone above 420,000 for the for the average
so again the story is that
even though it's taking longer to sell
even though there's more inventory
prices are still going up
percent of list price received
this one trending more in the buyer's direction right
we went down point two %
from 98.3% of list price received
down to 98.1% list price received
this September versus last September
what that means is that
if you list a home for $100,000
which there's not a whole lot of people doing that
these days but if you do
you can reasonably expect to get $98,100 for that
house that's listed
now this doesn't take into account seller concessions
sellers are having to often times make concessions
pay for buyer closing costs and the like
it doesn't account for that
it doesn't account for price changes either
so keep that in mind as you're
as you're looking at this
but headline number it's going down
it's getting a little bit softer
sellers aren't getting as much this time
in terms of percent of list price received
as they were last year
part of that is that sellers are being stubborn
right about about what they list their home for
and I get it it's
it's brutal right now
and a lot of sellers are just trying to
you know just sell and pay off their mortgage and
and pocket a little bit of money
and in some cases that's really hard to do
but this is what we're looking at
and and the data is what the data is
can't argue with data although some people will
some people will come at me and argue
with me over the data and it is what it is
housing affordability index
I told you guys last month
this would go up
as a result of mortgage rates going down
that's exactly what happened it went up to 99
now
that is a decrease
from the 1:04 that we had in September of last year
a 4.8% decrease but that's our
that's the closest we've come to 100 all year right
we hit 98 in March now we're at 99
we want that number to be 100 or above
100 or above
means that the median
family can afford the median priced home
based on
incomes based on mortgage rates based on
median home prices so it's factoring
all of those things
and giving you a single snapshot number
and we're basically right there right
for the month of September
the median family could
and the median household income
could afford the median priced home
almost right
we're we're
we're barely we're barely short of that
but we're close enough
this is what's so important about mortgage rates right
cause prices did go up in the month of September
and yet mortgage rates coming down had
had a dramatic impact
and they didn't come down too much
but they came down enough to make a difference
and this is the whole story
and this is probably why we had more pendings
why we had more closings
all of these are interconnected together
and this is why housing affordability is so
so important for our market
Greenville is an affordable market
when housing affordability isn't there
this market is very
very sensitive this market gets very sensitive
to mortgage rates being where they are
and this is why
when this number starts to get into the low 90s
the market starts to slow down a lot
when it's at or above 100
the market tends to tends to pick up a little bit
inventory of homes for sale
this is one of those numbers that is frequently
revised as well in very similar fashion to
the pending number that we already discussed
it's usually revised by 500 to 600 units downward
and that's exactly what happened in August
August originally printed 60
540
homes on the market at the end of at the end of August
that got revised down to 59
69 so that got revised downward by about 500
almost 600 units however
that was still a 32% point
32.1% increase in inventory versus last year
and if you're looking at the chart
you can see it I mean it's
it's no secret inventory is a rocket shooting up
and September came in at 65
16 that's also gonna get revised downward
that'll probably be around 59
50 something like that
but that'll still be another
big increase from September of last year
which was 46 29 so the
the big takeaway here is that
we have about 30% more inventory
and we're running about 30% more inventory
every single month than what it was last year
at this time buyers have a lot more options
doesn't feel that way if you're a buyer
you probably don't feel like
there's a lot more options
but there are you've got a lot more options
and sellers have a lot more competition
month supply got revised
so this is this so month supply
takes the inventory of homes
for sale at the end of a given month
which I just said will need to get revised
divided by the average monthly pending sales
from the last 12 months
which also needs to get revised
and and so this
number is always gonna be skewed a little bit
it's always high alright
so so August got revised from 4.7 down to 4.2
still a big increase from August of last year
which was 3.4 months of inventory
September sitting at 4.6
I predicted that I thought it would be
I thought September and August
would end up being pretty close
so September will probably get revised down to 4.2
4.1 when it's all said and done
September of last year was 3.4
so what we're seeing is months of
of inventory is hovering down here in the low fours
whereas it was in the mid threes last year
so we got more months supply of inventory
that means it would take four you know if I'm right
this is gonna be revised down to 4.2
4.1 that's how many months it would take
for all of this supply to get bought up
if we were to
not have any more homes come on the market
and people kept buying at the rate that they're
currently buying at
so that is I believe that's it
yeah that is it for
for today's episode and for all of that
hopefully all of that makes sense to you guys
if you have any questions let me know
long story short
the market is going two different directions
all at the same time it is getting softer
but we did see a little bit of a rebound
in September will be
interesting to see what the rest of October looks like
I have seen activity in October
has looked better for me than some of the prior months
so it's been a little bit encouraging
although it's been aF
it's been a hard few months quite frankly for
for me for a lot of Realtors
and that's just the way it is
that's the way the market is right now
we just gotta endure we gotta grind it out
we and we gotta make it
like I said we will make it
we'll find a way to survive
so thank you guys for listening
tune in next week for the Amazon gift card giveaway
I I will actually do it next week
thank you guys once again
we will talk again oh
like right where you subscribe
my contact information in the show notes
we will talk again next time!