[SPEAKER_02]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_02]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_02]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

[SPEAKER_02]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_09]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm your host, Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_09]: Today's Friday, October 17th, 2025.

[SPEAKER_09]: And we are well on our way, deep, deep into the fourth quarter of the year 2025.

[SPEAKER_09]: October is more than half way done.

[SPEAKER_09]: And in some places in the U.S., it already feels more like winter.

[SPEAKER_09]: I know here in Los Angeles, we had a torrential downpour on Tuesdays, snow in the mountains.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so it seems the holidays are right around the corner.

[SPEAKER_09]: And as we quickly move through the fourth quarter and closer to the end of the year, we cannot lose focus with regard to the stock market.

[SPEAKER_09]: Your portfolio's now is not the time to stop paying attention.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so,

[SPEAKER_09]: We here at Investoxyarm mission are objective for this show is to each and every day help make you a better and more informed investor we want to help you understand market dynamics and especially how those dynamics affect your lives.

[SPEAKER_09]: To that end, we have a mixture of educational and actionable material to go over today, but the most important part of this show comes directly through your finance and investment question contributions via voicemail over on our YouTube or live throughout the show.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, just a bit.

[SPEAKER_09]: We'll talk about today's market performance and run down those show topics, but let's tackle this color question now.

[SPEAKER_04]: Hey, I was just wondering about Neptune company, they're an insurance company, dealing with

[SPEAKER_04]: and government has kind of backed off of flood insurance.

[SPEAKER_04]: So I was just curious what your thoughts were investing in Neptune at this time.

[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks, fine.

[SPEAKER_09]: Neptune insurance holdings, Tigger NP, is an insurance company primarily operating in the flood insurance base.

[SPEAKER_09]: So they offer residential and commercial flood and related risk insurance products through their subsidiaries.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now,

[SPEAKER_09]: It has had a bit of underwriting losses and its margins are not too hot, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: The company is currently operating at a net loss, which is pretty common in these early stage risk for insurance firms as they start to scale and refine their pricing models.

[SPEAKER_09]: Also a bit of regulatory

[SPEAKER_09]: and climate risk headwinds like there's growing awareness of a climate driven flooding, especially after some of these costly storms, and that's putting pressure on ensures and creating growth opportunities for those who are dedicated within the flood insurance space.

[SPEAKER_09]: But the company did complete its IPO recently.

[SPEAKER_09]: It is a bit of a niche insurance, so I'm sure you heard about it because of the

[SPEAKER_09]: attractive nature of something in such a confined space.

[SPEAKER_09]: But an IPO, in October 1st of 2025, it looks like it's only has financial data, at least from my perspective, going back to 2023.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, I don't care what company this is.

[SPEAKER_09]: We've talked about this before.

[SPEAKER_09]: Historically speaking, if you look at the empirical data,

[SPEAKER_09]: In aggregate, companies tend to underperform in their first year of trading.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's many reasons, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: There's initial price discovery.

[SPEAKER_09]: There could be mispricing on what their IPO prices are.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's a lock-up period that expires so insider start to sell shares.

[SPEAKER_09]: But either way,

[SPEAKER_09]: And empirically, holding a company within the first year of its IPO is a negative proposition and so, just like every other IPO, for Neptune, insurance, holdings, ink, ticker, NP, get a pass.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: We're going to go over in the next of 45 minutes or so, including my main focus point, which concerns this question.

[SPEAKER_09]: Should you panic, the real impact of a government shutdown on your investments?

[SPEAKER_09]: When we talk about this topic, we will break down the historical data from fidelity to reveal how a government shutdown truly affects the stock market, fixed income, and the broader economy, and why your long-term strategy remains the best defense.

[SPEAKER_09]: Also, we have a couple more interesting topics to touch on.

[SPEAKER_09]: The first is the shutdown from a different angle, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: The shutdown is leaving the Fed and many other

[SPEAKER_09]: People in the dark on data, specifically as the Fed is weighing its next move, also touch a bit on signs of liquidity strains.

[SPEAKER_09]: We do see banks starting to tap a federal lending facility.

[SPEAKER_09]: We did see a bit of story starting a credit contract led to a bit of a decline in the market this week, so we'll touch on that.

[SPEAKER_09]: Should we have time at the end of the show?

[SPEAKER_09]: We're going to talk about inflation, linked bonds, and are they really that safe?

[SPEAKER_09]: The common practice and a lot of people's accounts when they start to move into retirement, move into that consumption phase.

[SPEAKER_09]: So we'll touch on that, should be of time to be out of the show.

[SPEAKER_09]: We also have some voice-made questions, rated a plane, including one on a Sino-Feteacre SNY, and another on United Partial Service Digger UPS.

[SPEAKER_09]: So some questions that came in from the comments section of the UN Investorkey YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_09]: And of course, I welcome your finance and investment questions now, or any time to out the show.

[SPEAKER_09]: You all know that you'll probably be making a several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter.

[SPEAKER_09]: Before you do so, I recommend that you look at our new comprehensive 2025 Q4 economic and market outlook report.

[SPEAKER_09]: It is a free read, and it's posted down in vestalk.com.

[SPEAKER_09]: As we move into a break, please remember that my phone lines are open, number's 888, 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: The prosperous future you envision for yourself and your family will not happen without strategic planning and definitive action.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's got a bright-end San Mateo looking at Roku.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I wanted you to take on the technical picture.

[SPEAKER_03]: For the unprepared investor, market volatility around the world demonstrates risk.

[SPEAKER_03]: but opportunities wait for no one and now maybe the best time in years to invest wisely to invest strategically.

[SPEAKER_03]: What I would do is keep saving and look for other opportunities.

[SPEAKER_03]: But how can you decide what sectors to avoid?

[SPEAKER_03]: Which stocks to buy and what might be the best price point?

[SPEAKER_03]: I knew to invest in my friend Wesley recommended your podcast a year ago.

[SPEAKER_03]: The next decisive step on your path to financial freedom begins with a Spotify search for Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: Listen live or download the free podcast.

[SPEAKER_01]: Millions of downloads have proved there's value in every Invest Talk podcast.

[SPEAKER_01]: Call anytime 24-7 Invest Talk 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's talk a little bit about the market today, U.S. stocks, mostly higher overall, though, ending a bit off of their best levels.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Dow is up 52 basis points, S&P553 NASDAQ up 52 Russell 2000, finishing the opposite direction down 60.

[SPEAKER_09]: Diving into sector's big tech, mostly higher Amazon though, extending its recent under performance.

[SPEAKER_09]: Other performers included credit cards, payment rails, China tech, tech hardware, airlines, and cruise lines.

[SPEAKER_09]: When they have it's side under performers included, some GOP, one names, copper, and aluminum, custody banks, tech components, and machinery.

[SPEAKER_09]: Bonds, treasuries, a bit weaker.

[SPEAKER_09]: We did see some curve flattening today, reversing some of what we're seeing in pre-market strength heading into the trading day.

[SPEAKER_09]: The same time the dollar index was up 10 basis points.

[SPEAKER_09]: yet still off 60 basis points for the week.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's actually its worst weekly performance since early August and gold finished down 2.1% but in spite of that still finished a week up 5.3% continuing its March upward.

[SPEAKER_09]: Cruel oil settled up about 30 basis points on the day though off about 3% for the week for its third straight weekly decline.

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, trading overall was pretty choppy today.

[SPEAKER_09]: Seems investors were digesting a bit of yesterday's headlines about some of that rising credit stress at regional banks.

[SPEAKER_09]: Analysts noted issues appear to be contained for now, though, news did come after a drum beat of recent headlines, about the ripple effects, right, of the first brands and track-colored bankruptcies, as well as Jamie Diamond from JP Morgan, CEO of JP Morgan.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's comments this week that such events could be cockroaches signaling the potential.

[SPEAKER_09]: For more other than that though, really headlines were fairly quiet, not much new on the US trying to trade front though, tensions do remain elevated, and the prospects of a Trump G meeting at the coming APEC conference do remain a bit unclear, but at the same time, Trump did tell Fox business that high bilateral tariffs, they're just not sustainable and we're going to do fine, quote, we're going to do fine with China on a trade deal.

[SPEAKER_09]: On the funding side, still no clear path to a resolution for the US government shutdown with the ongoing data vacuum, a bit of a risk will talk a little bit about that later in the show and how that can be an issue especially as the Fed is attempting to determine its next move into the end of the year.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think really on the economic calendar today, though self-site analysts of state-level data paged an initial claims at about 217,000 for the week and October 11th, down from about 235 in the prior week.

[SPEAKER_09]: Same time Fed's speak is still tapering off as well at the blackout period ahead of next Wednesday's FOMC decision, which is widely expected to be another 25 basis point cut.

[SPEAKER_09]: Really not much else on the calendar next week.

[SPEAKER_09]: Some temporary CPI expected out next Friday.

[SPEAKER_09]: A shutdown exception due to social security, statutory requirements.

[SPEAKER_09]: It will be looking at cost of living adjustments next year.

[SPEAKER_09]: Other major data likely limited to existing home sales on Thursday, along with the Flash S&P Global PMI's and the final read of October's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now from time to time, we also receive questions via our web forms from invest talk dot com so feel free.

[SPEAKER_09]: You got a question just ahead over to our website and submit it directly to us.

[SPEAKER_09]: Someone coming over from Peter D, the questions about co-oplast, ticker CLP, BY, says co-oplast is currently trading near its 52 week low and has been identified as morning stars most undervalued biomedical stock.

[SPEAKER_09]: What are your thoughts on the investment opportunity?

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, Coloplast is a Danish MedTech company they focus on intimate health care, producing and marketing, a continent's wound care, interventional neurology, and respiratory voice care products globally.

[SPEAKER_09]: 2025, the introduced a new five-year strategy dubbed impact four and updated its financial ambitions into 2030, a bit of leadership and governance changes as well, the CEO will step down from the board and the next annual general meeting, early in 2025, the CEO also resigned from that position, and so they're a bit of a leadership transition.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now,

[SPEAKER_09]: A couple ratings agencies look like have lowered their price target because margin outlooks are pretty poor.

[SPEAKER_09]: That margin has been falling consistently since the pandemic in September 2021, that number was 24%.

[SPEAKER_09]: Percent asked for it to be 14.4.

[SPEAKER_09]: Turn on equity has fallen from 63.5% to 27.9% in that same time period.

[SPEAKER_09]: And sales growth has started to lag a bit, projected to grow from about 4 billion to 4.3 billion in the subcoming year.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's been a perennial out or underperformer that it's relative to its industry over the past four years.

[SPEAKER_09]: And here today, it's on 16.2%.

[SPEAKER_09]: While still being the name that's trading at a price to forward looking earnings, about 23%.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, there are 23 times that is.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so for me, it's a bit of a niche medical play, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: They have solid product mode because of how niche it is.

[SPEAKER_09]: But it's contending with a leadership transition, margin pressure, it's an ADR, so there's a bit of liquidity issues from time to time, the liquidity and volume has peaked or picked up rather towards the end of 2025.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so for a name that frankly hasn't been doing too well and from a moment of perspective looks pretty poor, you know, it's trading at its low, but it is trading at its 52 week low for a reason.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'll remind you that even though it's trading at its 52 week low, it is not at a low in terms of price to book.

[SPEAKER_09]: It is not at a low in terms of its forward-looking price earnings or its price to sales or any of these things.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I'm not really seeing anything from a technical perspective that is pointing towards a momentum shift here, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: It still has some of those exogenous issues or rather issues within itself, the transition, margin compression, and I'm not really seeing anything that is getting me exciting that they are on the way out of these troubles.

[SPEAKER_09]: I will say one benefit of them, I guess, is they have a strong dividend track record, bit of a stability anchor for the company, but personally for me, that's not enough to throw that into my portfolio.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is CLPBY.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: We want to do break still to come.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, focus point and more answers to your questions.

[SPEAKER_09]: I encourage you to call now, invest stock, the numbers 88899 chart and Frank, we will get to you after this break.

[SPEAKER_01]: In Fest Talk, Innovators, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, Interview Company Leaders, Founders, and Visionaries.

[SPEAKER_01]: So head over to the Invest Talk YouTube channel and look for Invest Talk Innovators.

[SPEAKER_01]: Luke Guerrero is here now and ready to answer your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: Call Invest Talk 888-99, chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's got a Frank from New York who is a question about games at Workshop Group.

[SPEAKER_09]: Do you own it?

[SPEAKER_09]: You're looking about it.

[SPEAKER_07]: I was just looking to research here.

[SPEAKER_07]: I just thought about hearing your pain on it.

[SPEAKER_07]: I think I was watching a show for what it was, but I saw some kids playing with it.

[SPEAKER_07]: Never knew what it was, but I got into it a little bit reading about it.

[SPEAKER_07]: And there's a huge obsession with it.

[SPEAKER_07]: And the company's financial work in the samely profitable.

[SPEAKER_07]: So I was wondering if you guys know anything about it.

[SPEAKER_07]: Should I either work with researching into it?

[SPEAKER_09]: Sure, let's take a look.

[SPEAKER_09]: So that name is Games Workshop Group.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Dicker is GNWKF, which is a US listed over the counter ADR, because it is a British company.

[SPEAKER_09]: And they specialize in miniature war games and fantasy tabletop products, notably Warhammer 40,000, and a couple other things.

[SPEAKER_09]: And have a bit of a cult following in terms of their IP.

[SPEAKER_09]: So they design, they license,

[SPEAKER_09]: and they retail these miniature figures, these game systems, accessories, and the IP.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, they're pretty strong profit growth, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: And they have year ended December of last year, games workshop appointed a 33.4% increase in operating profit.

[SPEAKER_09]: They're revenue has grown at 18.5% on an annualized basis over the past six years.

[SPEAKER_09]: net income is grown at 22.9% or even margin is sitting around 50 and their net margins around 31.8.

[SPEAKER_09]: The return on equity is 72.2%.

[SPEAKER_09]: Unidate, they're about 17.33% and spite of being down 10% over the past three months.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so what they've done is, well, they're expanding their manufacturing footprint.

[SPEAKER_09]: They have a new factory that is supposed to help them scale given the amount of demand that they're seeing.

[SPEAKER_09]: They've been increasing their dividend.

[SPEAKER_09]: evaluation.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's not too crazy.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, 17 times for looking price 17 times price to book value is a little bit high for me as is 8.1 times price to sales, but I mean, you're paying a premium for the crazy growth that they've seen and it's relatively consistent growth.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, they grew from a 661 million in revenue to 794 million in the previous year.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's pretty solid growth still.

[SPEAKER_09]: So it's not really backlog much.

[SPEAKER_09]: No, overall.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, this seems to be a company that is benefiting from

[SPEAKER_09]: a great connection to its IP.

[SPEAKER_09]: And in this business, IP is really all with matters, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: You can build your game pieces, you can build your physical products.

[SPEAKER_09]: But at least Warhammer I know has been licensed to video games, sometimes video games get licensed to movies.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so all these things can really help a business like this at the same time.

[SPEAKER_09]: Looks like it has a dividend, or it has been paying a consistent dividend over the past couple years.

[SPEAKER_09]: I would maybe take a deeper look at this name.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, I like its consistent growth.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's a bit expensive, but I certainly think if your question is, should you take a deeper look?

[SPEAKER_09]: The answer is yes, that is games workshop group.

[SPEAKER_09]: Take your GMWKF.

[SPEAKER_09]: Next to the call frank.

[SPEAKER_09]: All right, well, after weeks of gridlock, Congress has failed to pass a funding bill and non-essential parts of the federal government.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Central Services, such as Social Security, Medicare, Air Traffic Control and Law Enforcement, continue generally as they normally would, and historically, will shutdowns aren't new.

[SPEAKER_09]: The U.S. has had 11 since 1981, lasting from a single day to as long as 34.

[SPEAKER_09]: Even the long ones like in 2013 and 2018 caused pretty minimal market damage, the S&P 500 actually rose in the 100 days after both episodes, so the question naturally should be in your mind, how is this going to affect my life?

[SPEAKER_09]: How is this going to affect?

[SPEAKER_09]: My Portfolio.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, Fidelity's strategist, Eurion Timmer, says investors should ignore short-term noise.

[SPEAKER_09]: Oh, excuse me, short-term noise.

[SPEAKER_09]: As shutdowns tend to just create headlines, not really long-term, Portfolio risk.

[SPEAKER_09]: This year's setup looks pretty similar to 2018, a market pullback earlier in the year.

[SPEAKER_09]: Followed by a rebound, despite ongoing political drama.

[SPEAKER_09]: and it's not just contained to the equity side on the fixed-income side.

[SPEAKER_09]: Markets tend to also just shrug it off the treasury, keeps paying interest, and running bond auctions, regardless of agency closure.

[SPEAKER_09]: So it's business is normal from the funding side of the government as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: The bigger concern isn't really default risk.

[SPEAKER_09]: But possible volatility if investors protest US fiscal policy by dumping treasuries.

[SPEAKER_09]: It is true, ready?

[SPEAKER_09]: Prolong, shut down, could

[SPEAKER_09]: In effect, put a bit of a dent in growth, but really not enough for a session, more for slow or momentum, more for a bit of erosion in confidence in the U.S. government and its policies.

[SPEAKER_09]: Credit-rated ages of sea still are watching pretty closely.

[SPEAKER_09]: Modi's has already downgraded U.S. debt and more cuts could lift borrowing costs.

[SPEAKER_09]: On the ground, most Americans won't feel immediate pain, though federal employees and contractors

[SPEAKER_09]: that all these take away, and one that I tend to agree with, stick to your long-term plan.

[SPEAKER_09]: These political standoffs tend to pass, but diversified, goal-based portfolios are built to ride through them.

[SPEAKER_09]: On the next invest talk, we'll look into this story.

[SPEAKER_09]: How asset tokenization is revolutionizing global finance.

[SPEAKER_09]: Learn how leveraging blockchain to digitize and fractionalized assets is poised to make investing cheaper, faster, more transparent, and radically accessible to everyone.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's Monday.

[SPEAKER_09]: For now, I'm Luke Guerrero, and we are ready to take your calls now at 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: Got a question for Justin or Luke?

[SPEAKER_02]: You're the best person to ask it.

[SPEAKER_06]: I wanted to pick your brain about Apple.

[SPEAKER_06]: What did you think about their earnings call?

[SPEAKER_06]: To this a good chance of add to my position.

[SPEAKER_02]: Call in Vestock, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: weekend is here or almost here, but you've got finance and investment questions, so step up and call in in Vestong.

[SPEAKER_01]: 888 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hello in Vestong.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was trying to call you about the following ticker symbol S in Y that's sent off by I'm probably saying that wrong.

[SPEAKER_00]: I had the stock.

[SPEAKER_00]: I sold all of it and just reinvested it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I put it in

[SPEAKER_00]: Was that the right thing to do?

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll listen to the show.

[SPEAKER_00]: We appreciate your analysis and hope you have a good day.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks.

[SPEAKER_09]: Sanofi, ticker, S and Y, is a global bio pharmaceutical company that is headquartered in France, that researches, develops and manufactures, and markets, therapeutic solutions from immunology, to rare diseases, oncology, and general medicine.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, as with most biopharmac companies, their success is going to be based upon their drugs, their therapies, and how successful they are.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, recently, they had a disappointing trial result from AMLITE.

[SPEAKER_09]: And like, Limab, I can't pronounce this.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it was a late-seage trial.

[SPEAKER_09]: It was a candidate for Exima-related diseases.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it felt pretty short of investor expectations.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is one of the reasons why over the past 52 weeks, this name is down 7.73%.

[SPEAKER_09]: And only up 4.96% year to date.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, despite these pipeline setbacks, some of their core medicines, their vaccine division, they continue to generate pretty stable cashflow, but in this space, the name of the game is growth.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's something you really haven't seen much of over the past five years up.

[SPEAKER_09]: Analyze growth is about 1.9%.

[SPEAKER_09]: Then income is grown though at 12.6% so margins have expanded quite a bit from about 30 or 8% in 2019, peaking out during the pandemic at 34.2% then down to 20.5% this year.

[SPEAKER_09]: At the same time, they're sitting in a pretty reasonable valuation, 10 times for looking price to earnings.

[SPEAKER_09]: But your question is, do you think that right now is a time that you should be invested in biopharmaceutical companies that are again predicated upon how successful these drug trials are or?

[SPEAKER_09]: Is it better to be in copper and gold?

[SPEAKER_09]: And so I think the choice for me is between those two things.

[SPEAKER_09]: The clear choice is copper and gold, because of the macro environment, is more likely to help those types of companies, those types of commodities, than to help the bio-farmus space.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is SNY, thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now on Fridays, we generally make time to fit in a quick run-down of key benchmark numbers.

[SPEAKER_09]: So let me hit you with that list right now.

[SPEAKER_09]: The two-year treasure yield was sitting at 3.464% today for perspective two weeks ago, the number was 3.566, and 198 weeks ago, that number was 0.64.

[SPEAKER_09]: The 10-year treasure yield was sitting at 4.01% today, two weeks ago, that number was 4.113, and 196 weeks ago, that number was 1.762.

[SPEAKER_09]: Gold is priced at $4,249 per ounce.

[SPEAKER_09]: A $365 increase compared with just two weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_09]: Level weeks back, that number was three, three, four, eight, and 190 weeks ago when we all wish we had gone all in on gold that number was 1806.

[SPEAKER_09]: Silver today, which has had quite a run, priced at $51.91 per ounce, that is $3.91 cents higher than just two weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_09]: 88 weeks back, then it was $2280 and looking back 182 weeks, Silver was $23.94.

[SPEAKER_09]: Oil was selling for $57.54 per barrel, a $3.51 sent a decrease compared to just two weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_09]: 56 weeks back, that number was 67.79.

[SPEAKER_09]: And 98 weeks back, the number was 74.30.

[SPEAKER_09]: The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.05, a 10-cented decrease compared to two weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_09]: 124 weeks back, that number was 356, 1372 weeks back.

[SPEAKER_09]: The number was 425.

[SPEAKER_09]: In California, it was averaging $4.64 per gallon, same as two weeks back.

[SPEAKER_09]: 102 weeks ago, that number was 5.3278 weeks ago, that number was 587 for a comparison in Kentucky.

[SPEAKER_09]: Gaff is gasses averaging $2.67 per gallon today that is $1.97 less per gallon than in California.

[SPEAKER_09]: It already talked a little bit about the shutdown from the perspective of how it affects directly stock market returns, but I want to turn your focus to a different effect it has because the federal government shutdown is now disrupting the flow of key economic data forcing the federal reserve to make its next-grade decision partly blind.

[SPEAKER_09]: The September jobs report and multiple inflation releases have been delayed.

[SPEAKER_09]: They leave the Fed officials without their most reliable indicators.

[SPEAKER_09]: Ironically, the data vacuum really hurts the president's push for a deeper rate cut.

[SPEAKER_09]: Policy makers are lacking the evidence of labor market weakness that would justify it.

[SPEAKER_09]: With limited information, most economists see the Fed opting for a more conservative approach, just another quarter point rate cut, matching September's move, rather than moving in a direction that is even larger, at a time when they really cannot see.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, chair Jerome Powell said that the absence of data could become a bit more of a challenge.

[SPEAKER_09]: If the shutdown drags on, and that could add to the risk that the Fed is starting to miss its usual inputs,

[SPEAKER_09]: The Labor Department is recalling some staff to finish the CPI now due October 24th just before the next FOMC meeting, but in the meantime, officials are doing what they have in the past.

[SPEAKER_09]: They're turning to private sector data, ADP payrolls.

[SPEAKER_09]: indie job postings, credit cards, spending trackers, and attempting to use all of these things to fill the gaps.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now policy divisions inside the Fed, well they're widening.

[SPEAKER_09]: Some members worry about a softening job market.

[SPEAKER_09]: Others are focused more on stubborn inflation.

[SPEAKER_09]: The data blackout comes as the administrations, tariffs, and tighter immigration policies are starting to reshape the economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: They are raising cost for manufacturers, and constraining the labor supply and labor you have to remember is an input as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now history offers a bit of precedent right shut down to 96 and 2013 and 2018.

[SPEAKER_09]: They all of the lay data releases.

[SPEAKER_09]: Though it's important to note that none of them really derailed the feds ability to act.

[SPEAKER_09]: They often lead to more of these minor moves rather

[SPEAKER_09]: But the risk is there if the shutdown persists.

[SPEAKER_09]: Officials may defer any larger policy shifts until December or potentially even beyond when delayed reports can clarify how employment and inflation are trending.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so for investors, the message here is continuity.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Fed will likely trim audiously again, not pivot sharply, and keep cuts gradual until reliable data returns.

[SPEAKER_09]: So in back in the investment on voice bank,

[SPEAKER_08]: Hey, John and Luke, Joe from South Carolina here, just calling wonder what you think of U.P.S.

[SPEAKER_08]: United parcel service.

[SPEAKER_08]: It's been going down for a while, but I see their businesses one that has a high barrier in entry just because it's really just them in FedEx and U.S.P.S.

[SPEAKER_08]: just wanted to see what you think of it.

[SPEAKER_08]: I think it could be a good value here.

[SPEAKER_08]: And one of the CE, if you agree, look forward to listening for your answer on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_09]: UPS the United Parcel Service is a leading global logistics and package delivery company.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now they operate in the U.S. they operate internationally and they also do a bit of not just residential delivery but freight movement as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now you to date they're down about 31.48% down 36% over the past 52 weeks down dramatically since 2022.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, you know, in Q1, they announced, okay, this is a time where we need to do some cost cutting to restructure.

[SPEAKER_09]: They exceeded EPS estimates, but announced plans to lay off 20,000 employees, close 73 facilities to help to streamline operations.

[SPEAKER_09]: And also reducing its Amazon volume by about 50% by mid-2026.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that was a large,

[SPEAKER_09]: portion of their package volume, think of all the times you buy things on Amazon.

[SPEAKER_09]: They also require a health care logistics company out of Canada, deepening its health care supply chain, and in a way they're facing some level of headwinds from trade, from tariffs, from classification issues.

[SPEAKER_09]: I know when I was ordering things from Canada, ordering things from Asia,

[SPEAKER_09]: It was a little uncertain what the cost to the importer myself was going to be and so a lot of companies, the exporters from other countries started to delay shipments.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now they have a very high dividend yields, 7.6%.

[SPEAKER_09]: But as is often the case that level of a dividend yield is more of a sign to worry about something.

[SPEAKER_09]: Dividends are not set in stone dividends can be cut.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is a reason to be conserved.

[SPEAKER_09]: UPS is in the midst of a transition.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's scaling back from its low margin customers, Amazon, restructuring its operations aggressively, and doubling down its higher values and segments like its health care logistics.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, I'm really not seeing anything to show that the turnaround is going to be successful in the short to medium term.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have to remember.

[SPEAKER_09]: UPS in fact, it is a very difficult business.

[SPEAKER_09]: People don't understand how critical U.S. PS is to UPS in FedEx putting logistics routes across the country, especially in areas with low population density, a lot of you package delivery from these companies, is actually completed by the U.S.

[SPEAKER_09]: Postal Service.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, you know, it's a neat name that we used to hold for our clients, we have sent to move on.

[SPEAKER_09]: And I think even at these prices, the downside risk, or the risk of it being flat for a while, because of the lack of catalyst for growth outweighs the benefits.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is UPS United parcel service.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, I don't think we've gotten to a YouTube question yet today, so let's try and tackle one now.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's from BiscoDiscuit, interesting name, I like it, says I came across a utility that I hadn't heard of before.

[SPEAKER_09]: Take your K-E-N, let's pull this up over here.

[SPEAKER_09]: Canon Holings, it appears to be a little all over the place with assets in Israel, the United States, but then based in Singapore, very strange.

[SPEAKER_09]: But limited fundamentals I can find seem attractive.

[SPEAKER_09]: Would you guys mind taking a look at this one on the show?

[SPEAKER_09]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's take a look at Kenyan K&O and Holdings.

[SPEAKER_09]: Kenyan Holdings is a utility company.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's a holding company that operates its interests in energy.

[SPEAKER_09]: uh... through its power plants and natural gas segments and related infrastructure it also has had stakes in these shipping and transportation business that eighty three percent of its revenue comes from its is really segment geographically that makes up about eighty three percent of its revenue as well but sixteen point eight percent comes to united states you're today to stop forty four percent over the past fifty two weeks up eighty one percent

[SPEAKER_09]: We're going to go with pretty solid from $373 million to $751 in about five or six years.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's about 15% growth on an annualized basis.

[SPEAKER_09]: At the same time, net income, that was kind of all over the place.

[SPEAKER_09]: They've been negative, they've been slightly positive, not a lot of consistency there.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, they have some pretty strong energy segment.

[SPEAKER_09]: Growth, some pretty strong project approvals.

[SPEAKER_09]: And they did declare a pretty large dividend in April of 2025.

[SPEAKER_09]: But I think one of the issues that I see is its energy exposure, especially in Israel.

[SPEAKER_09]: And some of the regulatory permitting policy geopolitical risks there, could it impact project timelines, costs,

[SPEAKER_09]: There's a bit of execution risk anytime you're scaling new plants, you're managing these capital expenditures, and trying to ensure returns on new builds.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is one of the reasons why the company's profitability is all over the darn place.

[SPEAKER_09]: In 2021, that margin was 190 percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: Two years later, it was negative 34 percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so this environment, I'm looking for stability.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm looking for stable revenues.

[SPEAKER_09]: rather stable growth in revenues.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm looking for consistent returns.

[SPEAKER_09]: And because profitability tends to be all over the darn place here, I think I'm going to have to pass.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is, take your K yet, can you hold it?

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks to the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, what a briefly mentioned the newest KPP premium newsletter, which will be distributed tomorrow.

[SPEAKER_09]: In the KPP Insight section, we discussed market liquidity.

[SPEAKER_09]: We briefly touched, or we will briefly touch actually in our next talking point, on the market liquidity dynamics.

[SPEAKER_09]: We have to understand that along with macro factors, market structure and liquidity have a big effect on our portfolio.

[SPEAKER_09]: So we'll have a bit of an update on that, as well as the stock idea section where we mentioned a German multinational medical technology company, as well as an American provider of climate control products.

[SPEAKER_09]: And in the portfolio management section, we talked about portfolio construction and the importance of non-correlated assets.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you're interested in learning more, visit us at www.investalk.com and it's subscribed.

[SPEAKER_09]: The newsletter will come to your inbox on Saturday afternoon.

[SPEAKER_09]: Looks like we got plenty of times.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's try and squeeze in another voicemail now.

[SPEAKER_05]: A good afternoon in Beth Talk.

[SPEAKER_05]: I had a question about Ramico resources, ticker, m-e-t-c. Now, it's just curious on your thoughts for this company moving forward, and I will be listening on the podcast for your answer.

[SPEAKER_05]: I appreciate everything that you guys do.

[SPEAKER_05]: Have a great night.

[SPEAKER_09]: ticker, METC is a Ramaco resources ink.

[SPEAKER_09]: They engage in the operation and development of coal mining properties, so metallurgical coal, in central and southern West Virginia, as well as plants in Pennsylvania.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now recently,

[SPEAKER_09]: You're today, this stock is up 380% of 361% in the past 52 weeks.

[SPEAKER_09]: Why?

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, they had a bit of discovery of rare earth elements in their brook mine, and that opened the potential upside beyond coal.

[SPEAKER_09]: It attracted a lot of speculative and thematic investor interest.

[SPEAKER_09]: Revenue has grown in about 23% on a normalized basis, but growth is really slow from

[SPEAKER_09]: It's actually falling into the end of this year at 583 million at the same time net margins projected to be negative this year.

[SPEAKER_09]: I see this name as a speculative play.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think the market season is a speculative play.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's trading at 35.4 times price to cash flow.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, with the company this is volatile is being down 7.48% today.

[SPEAKER_09]: Unless you want to be in the speculative game, I think I would wait this out a little bit.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is a Ramico Resources Tigger ME GC.

[SPEAKER_09]: Is our final break?

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm Luke Graham, and I have one goal here to help you achieve your financial freedom.

[SPEAKER_09]: Our work continues after our final break, so get your questions in now at 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Hi, Justin Alut.

[SPEAKER_06]: This has been from Virginia.

[SPEAKER_06]: Today I would like to ask you about your opinion on HCC.

[SPEAKER_06]: That's why you're met coal.

[SPEAKER_06]: I had bought a small position in this several months ago.

[SPEAKER_06]: was just curious as to what your thoughts are on the space on this particular stock whether or not it's something that would be worth continuing to buy into a little bit here and there or for waiting for a pullback or if this recent dip is the pullback to wait on any of those, all of those, whatever your opinion on this might be.

[SPEAKER_06]: I'm just really curious.

[SPEAKER_06]: I'll be listening on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you so much.

[SPEAKER_09]: Figured HCC is Warrior Metcolt, another US metallurgical coal producer, operating in the Appalachian region, particularly a bunch of underground mines in Alabama, and it sells premium co-can coal for steel production.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, you, today, it's up 20.28% of the past three months of 23.84% and really what's been affecting this is a couple of things.

[SPEAKER_09]: You'll demand cold pricing volatility, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: We've seen movements in global steel production, especially from China and India.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's led to constraints or disruptions in the supply.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's impacted, met cold price swings.

[SPEAKER_09]: We're also seeing a bit of operational and cost pressures.

[SPEAKER_09]: You're seeing across the board rising in Picasso's labor equipment energy and mining operation conditions, safety regulation.

[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of that can compress margins.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now has this company really seen a bit of margin compression over the years it has, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: It's gone from an EBITDA margin of 27 last year to 14.7 on a net margin basis.

[SPEAKER_09]: It actually is losing money this year that income sitting at negative $22 million.

[SPEAKER_09]: And, I mean, generally speaking, there's a bit of investor rotation, industrial miners, materials exposure, often tend to see a bit of a shift depending on the commodity outlook.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so,

[SPEAKER_09]: Understand that you have the potential to be in a relatively volatile play here.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's down to percent today.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's going to be highly predicated upon a lot of exogenous factors outside of the company.

[SPEAKER_09]: Related to steel demand, coal pricing, and generally the supply chain.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I think thematically there are other places you can be within this industry.

[SPEAKER_09]: But overall as a met coal company, I think HCC is a fine play.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now recently banks tapped the Federal Reserve's short-term lending facility for over $15 billion in just two days, so that the largest drawdown since the pandemic that's standing repophysility or SRF acts as like kind of a safety valve, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: It lets banks borrow cash from the Fed, exchange for treasuries when market rates spike.

[SPEAKER_09]: Normally, the FRSR after sits vital, because a rather idle, because banks can borrow cheaper elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_09]: But repo rates jumped above 425, and that forced banks to turn to the Fed.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now the surgeon usage signals that liquidity in the financial system, while it's tightening, even though the Fed still holds about 3 trillion in bank reserves.

[SPEAKER_09]: Settlements of Treasury bills and bonds added short-term strain, but analysts note such events haven't really triggered this kind of stress in recent years.

[SPEAKER_09]: The stress points more to QT, the Fed's balance she ran off reaching its limits as excess reserves get depleted.

[SPEAKER_09]: Recall the Fed's balance she ballooned to $9 trillion during COVID from massive bond purchases.

[SPEAKER_09]: But QT since 2022 has reversed much of that flood of cash.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Fed is likely overdrained, liquidated, and that could potentially be a problem into your end, or even sooner.

[SPEAKER_09]: The repo surges a loss of control of money markets and underscores some of the risks that policy tightening has gone a bit too far.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, a chair-drome pal hinted Tuesday that QT could wind down in the coming months, saying the Fed once banks to keep ample reserves.

[SPEAKER_09]: pals acknowledged, gradually tightening liquidity conditions, and noted affirming in repo rates confirming the growing stress beneath the surface.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, for investors with the takeaway, while this marks a key inflection point.

[SPEAKER_09]: If repo stress persists, the Fed may halt QT earlier than plant.

[SPEAKER_09]: Signaling, a potential pivot for toward liquidity support, heading in to the end of the year.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm Lou Guerrero, and this completes another Invest Talk program.

[SPEAKER_09]: Just an eye.

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