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[SPEAKER_08]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero,

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[SPEAKER_05]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to invest talk.

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[SPEAKER_05]: My name is Lou Guerrero and I will be your host for the next hour on this beautiful Tuesday October 21st, 2025.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Sounds crazy to say October 21st November is all ready around the corner and before you know it, the year will be up and we'll be heading in to 2026.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And so, things are really moving quickly here in the fourth quarter of the year.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And with regards to markets, and therefore your portfolios, things are moving quickly as well.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And it's difficult.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's hard to remain focused each and every day, so we hear it in Vestock, think that and hope that we play a small part in making you a better and more informed, investor each and every day.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now in order to do that, we have a mixture of educational items, actionable, material.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And we bring that to the table each and every day, but the most important part of this show are your finance and investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_05]: You help steer the conversation.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now to that end, before we go over today's market performance and run down those show topics, let's tackle this call in question now.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Hey Justin, Luke, I just wanted to get your input on CCJ, see Uranium holding company.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, just let me know your thoughts.

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[SPEAKER_05]: CCJ is Camico Corporation.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Mikko engages in the provision of uranium, uranium mining, milling conversion and fuel services for the nuclear power industry.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It has significant high-grade reserves and has done a good job of making low-cost operations.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Also, it's pretty broad exposure to the nuclear fuel cycle with stakes in various companies, including most recently Westing House Electric.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now, over the past couple months, it's been really well.

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[SPEAKER_05]: You did it up 61.06% up 42.90% over the past 52 weeks.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And the reason why as well.

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[SPEAKER_05]: The uranium market broadly has had a pretty large tail when the narrative about nuclear energy growth and supply constraints in uranium and really demand for clean, base load energy has boosted companies like Komiko.

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[SPEAKER_05]: They have long-term supply agreements with various companies and countries that run in the length of decades.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And so that strengthens their position, not just in the US, but internationally.

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[SPEAKER_05]: But 80% of the revenue comes from Canada, about 20% comes from the United States, but they're growing their business out of Europe.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now, there have been some production challenges, but in spite of that, you've seen consistent, analyst upgrades, upgrades, and sentiment.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And that's because Camico is really an essential feed stock plate in the nuclear cycle.

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[SPEAKER_05]: That being said, right?

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's not all green, nuclear power.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Tens to be sickle, they're exposed to commodity price swings in uranium and mining.

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[SPEAKER_05]: They have regulatory risk.

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[SPEAKER_05]: They have operational execution risk.

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[SPEAKER_05]: But these long-term contracts help to mitigate those fix.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now looking at its valuation, it's trading it about 62 times for looking price to earnings.

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[SPEAKER_05]: 7.6 times price to book value, 47.2 times price cash flow.

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[SPEAKER_05]: That's really because it's had a significant run up here in spite of it being down about 3.64% today.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's revenue growing 10% on an annualized basis.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Net income growing 17.6% margins.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Expanding up from 5.5% net margin to 20.3, even to margin at 54.5.

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[SPEAKER_05]: You know, we've held this name in a couple of our strategies for a while because it's we because we believe in the tailwinds that have been growing the uranium industry.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now, if I was thinking to make a new position, I'd probably be a bit hesitant here because of the valuation.

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[SPEAKER_05]: But the reason why we haven't really sold out of it, we have been trimming and taking profits, is because from a moment of perspective, it is so very strong.

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[SPEAKER_05]: We like Amika, we will continue to hold Amika that is Amika Corporation, take her CCJ.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Got a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so, and here's a little bit of what we have planned for you all today.

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[SPEAKER_05]: My main focus point concerns this topic.

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[SPEAKER_05]: When and how to change financial advisors.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Love a discussion, more of a comprehensive guide for investors, so you can assess the performance of your current advisor, including communication skills and fee structure.

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[SPEAKER_05]: We'll outline the necessary steps for a smooth and compliant transition to a new management professional should it be necessary.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Also, a couple more interesting stories.

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[SPEAKER_05]: One, another guide, so to speak of how you might want to position your portfolio, to predict against an AI bust.

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[SPEAKER_05]: A little bit of a discussion on consumer earnings that we've seen this week and what that makes clear about the wealth effect and who really is power and consumer spending.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And gold, we're treating today after record, rally,

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[SPEAKER_05]: On track for its biggest daily drop in five years so should we have time at the end of the show, we'll touch on that.

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[SPEAKER_05]: We also have some voice-mate calls, ready to play, including one on American financial group, ticker A of G, and another on Metaplatforms, ticker META.

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[SPEAKER_05]: As well as some questions that came in from the comment section of the Investalk YouTube channel, and of course, I welcome your finance and investment questions now, or any time throughout the show.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Moving into our break, our first break is very likely that you probably be making a several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter.

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[SPEAKER_05]: But before you do so, I recommend that you look at our new comprehensive 2025 Q4 economic and market outlook report.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's a free read, and it's posted now at www.investock.com.

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[SPEAKER_05]: My phone lines are open, waiting for you at 80 to 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_09]: The prosperous future you envision for yourself and your family will not happen without strategic planning and definitive action.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's got a bright-end San Mateo looking at Roku.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And I wanted you to take on the technical picture for the unprepared investor.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Market volatility around the world demonstrates risk.

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[SPEAKER_09]: but opportunities wait for no one and now maybe the best time in years to invest wisely to invest strategically.

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[SPEAKER_09]: What I would do is keep saving and look for other opportunities.

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[SPEAKER_09]: But how can you decide what sectors to avoid?

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[SPEAKER_09]: Which stocks to buy and what might be the best price point?

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[SPEAKER_09]: The next decisive step on your path to financial freedom begins with a Spotify search for Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Listen live or download the free podcast.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Luke Carrero is here and he's ready with answers to your financial investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Call Invest Talk, 8-8-8-99, chart.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Let's talk a little bit about the market today, U.S. stocks mixed over our pretty choppy trading for this Tuesday, and at a bit off of their best levels, though the Dow did cap off a fresh record close on the day.

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[SPEAKER_05]: That was at 47 S&P 500, flat on the day NASDAQ down 16 basis points, also 2,000 down at 49.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Our performers included a and d-names, electrical, electricals, and multis, life sciences, apparel, and home builders, they take pretty mixed Amazon, the notable gainer on the day with Google, the notable underperformer from that group.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Other underperformers included metal miners, industrial metal, semis, and tobacco.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Chargeries, mostly firmer you did see some flattening on the curve yields down about three basis points on that longer end.

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[SPEAKER_05]: The same time dollar index was up 40 basis points, gold finished down 5.7% after another record setting Monday, logging its worst single session since June 2013.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Silver settled down 7.2% after its own recent run.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Soxin really moved much, right?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Choppy trading despite a number of moving pieces that were in play.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Overall, I would say earnings takeaways, thus far have been fairly positive.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Beat rates are still pretty elevated sell side commentary is still talking about positive execution and you're seeing some traction behind these growth and productivity initiatives that continues to float.

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[SPEAKER_05]: valuations you also have a bit of a validation of the resilient consumer wealth effect narrative all throughout different companies earnings.

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[SPEAKER_05]: You also did see some bad right you had Zion US fit with the recent pushback against rather some some additional good within the financial sector you saw Zion US fitting with the recent pushback against last week's flare-up in credit underwriting concerns there really drove a big sell-off in regional banks and other financial names.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And he saw gold sell off.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It put some scrutiny on this debasement trade, but could be just more of a function of technical and positioning.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And then from a corporate perspective, right across the board, you're still seeing an activity that's remaining a tailwind from Wall Street.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Nothing really knew on the trade front, though Trump did note by making an offhand comment that a meeting with China's G. May not, in fact, happened.

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[SPEAKER_05]: On the data side, Philly fed, minimum manufacturing index for October, slid to the lowest levels since June with new orders and employment both declining.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Nothing on track for Wednesday, the Thursday will bring the September existing home sales and some state-level data for initial claims recall that as the government is closed, we're not getting federal jobs data.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And so what happens is Wall Street Cumps and they use the state-level data to try and come up with a nationwide estimate.

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[SPEAKER_05]: The highlight on Friday will be the delayed release of the September CPI report, street looking for the headline CPI up 40 basis points month of a month and a 3.1% year-over-year change while core seen at 30 basis points month of a month and 3.1% year-over-year, flash-payemise for October, final university of Michigan sentiment for October and September, so as new home sales also on the calendar.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Big reminder, no Fed speak this week.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Head of the 29th of October, FOMC decision.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Market will be pricing in, still is pricing in about 50 basis points of additional cuts this year.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's keeping some moving.

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[SPEAKER_05]: We're going to go with a YouTube question.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And as you know, not only do we have a podcast and Instagram channel, it's going to be a page, whatever you want to call it.

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[SPEAKER_05]: We have a YouTube channel.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's in Vestock with two T's.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And while you're over there, if you want to leave a question,

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[SPEAKER_05]: feel free.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And even if it's addressed to Justin, maybe I'll answer it like this one, that says, thanks, Justin.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Are you guys still holding MDT?

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[SPEAKER_05]: What are your thoughts on medical devices in general?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Well, MDT is a name that we still hold in a couple strategies that is

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[SPEAKER_05]: Metronic develops manufacturers and sells device-based medical therapies worldwide.

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[SPEAKER_05]: So from heart rhythm disorders to diabetes, to spinal issues, neurological issues, it's big companies.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's got about 95,000 employees, including one of my friends across well over 150 countries.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And the company has been doing a pretty solid job in the growth of

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[SPEAKER_05]: of its business in the past couple years right revenue up from 32 billion in April 2024 to about 35 billion this year and while that happened net income nearly doubling in that time period.

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[SPEAKER_05]: So really a rough.

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[SPEAKER_05]: 20, 20, 20, 20, 23, but the past couple of years really picked up for this company margin that expanded back to about 20.2% now.

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[SPEAKER_05]: They are announcing, rather, they did announce that its diabetes unit will become a standalone company named mini-med and what that is trying to do right is to unlock value and allow both parent companies of these new buying diabetes entity to focus more

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[SPEAKER_05]: often with companies that have too many hands in the fire right too many cooks in the kitchen too much going on you specialize and you scale better.

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[SPEAKER_05]: They also had some pretty strong regulatory wins with new product launches, and overall cash flow has just improved.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Free cash flow is sitting at $5.6 billion right now, and it's still trading at 16.4 times for looking earnings.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Well, that's below its high of 23.5, and just around its average.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now we like medical devices, Robin.

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[SPEAKER_05]: We think that medical devices are one of the best areas of the healthcare space.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And so for us, especially one that has a bit of solid balance sheet, right?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Long-term debt about $26 billion on a market cap of $124 billion net cash flow headed in the right direction.

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[SPEAKER_05]: All of these things signal a company that for us we're going to continue to hold on to.

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[SPEAKER_05]: So that is Metatronic PLC to your MDT.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks to the call.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks for watching.

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[SPEAKER_05]: We've been in New Bracks.com.

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[SPEAKER_05]: My main focus point and more answers to your questions.

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[SPEAKER_05]: I encourage you to call now at 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Have you heard about Invest Talk Innovators?

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[SPEAKER_07]: It's available now free on the Invest Talk YouTube channel, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, interview company leaders, founders, and visionaries.

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[SPEAKER_07]: So head over to the Invest Talk YouTube channel and look for Invest Talk Innovators.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Our main focus point today is a pretty important one.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And that's about when and how to change financial advisors.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Your financial advisor should be more of a partner in helping you achieve your goals and if they're not, what might be time for somebody new.

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[SPEAKER_05]: The most common reasons people switch advisors are poor communication, weak performance, and high fees.

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[SPEAKER_05]: That's conferred by a morning star study that was done in 2023, but I mean that makes common sense.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Before making a move, though,

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[SPEAKER_05]: If something can be fixed, maybe you're on the wrong page with them, we'll consider giving feedback first, right?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Sometimes miscommunication is the real issue, and a reset conversation can fix it.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Still, there are clear red flags in frequent contact, generate generic advice or being passed off to a call center, instead of actually having a dedicated advisor.

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[SPEAKER_05]: your strategies, your financial plan, to your goals.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Like, if you're a high net worth individual and you need tax-efficient investing.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Or, if you are somebody who has a complicated financial situation that needs more in-depth retirement planning, well then it's worth exploring other options.

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[SPEAKER_05]: You want to evaluate your relationship with simple questions.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Do they meet with you regularly?

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[SPEAKER_05]: As regularly as you demand.

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[SPEAKER_05]: For us, we let our clients set the pace.

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[SPEAKER_05]: There are some people who only want to talk to us once a year.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Some people want to talk more frequently.

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[SPEAKER_05]: You should be the one setting the period, the time period here.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Do they act in your best interest?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Do they charge a fair fee?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Obviously, as I mentioned this could be a miscommunication, you should probably give your advisor a couple months, six months to improve communication if you have that conversation, or sometimes to adjust investment results before deciding to move on.

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[SPEAKER_05]: But if you're ready for a change, referrals can be great, ask friends, ask colleagues for who they use, what is their satisfaction with their own advisors.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And when you start to narrow that list down, think of it as what it is, it's a job interview.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Interview at least three candidates.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Ask how they'll handle your account personally, how your relationship will work, how often you will communicate.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Once you choose that advisor, you're going to want to review that contract for termination terms, for exit fees, make sure that what is being said to you verbally, matches what is being handed to you in writing.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now your new advisor, and we do this for our clients all the time, will guide the asset transfer process, usually through what's called a cats or automated customer account transfer services.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And it takes about a week.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Any time you move on, any time you're thinking about moving on, frankly, any time at all, it's critical to keep copies of all records, confirm any implications of the moves of assets you are making, and remember, this is a relationship that should be a partnership.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And if it's strays from that, you have the right to switch.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Be polite, be decisive, that if your needs aren't being met, move on.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Let's pivot back to the Invest Talk Voice Bank for a question that came in earlier.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Hello and best dogs.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Today I'm calling about American financial group ticker symbol of AFG as always a monitor for profitability that levels in cash flow before I continue looking into these companies.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I really like this companies.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't have any insurance companies and I'm like some exposure.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What's your opinion of this business?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm thinking I'll be listening to a lot of problems.

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[SPEAKER_05]: American financial group ticker AFG is an insurance holding company.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And, you know, what the company does with its core businesses is primarily specialty commercial PNC insurance, so property and transportation, damage liability for buses, trucks, inland and ocean transportation, agricultural transportation, they also do excess in surplus liability so think you're umbrella policies, they also do trade credit insurance.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now what the company tries to do or has seemed to do because of how much they were turned to shareholders.

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[SPEAKER_05]: As they have bought back shares pretty consistently over the past five years and have a solid dividend is continue to grow that dividend, sitting about 2.7% right now.

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[SPEAKER_05]: But as I mentioned, right total return here from shares being bought back.

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[SPEAKER_05]: From chairs are down from about 87 and a half million shares outstanding to about 83 and a half million shares outstanding.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Bales are from time to time due to clear these special dividends, trying to get money back into the hands of shareholders.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Now, net operating earnings did drop a bit to about 181 per share in Q1 of 2025 versus 276 in Q1 of 2024, but you know, that is something that could be cyclical, you did have losses increase volatility within the industry.

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[SPEAKER_05]: But I think one thing that I like here is it trades at a pretty modest valuation here.

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[SPEAKER_05]: 11.7 times price to forward looking earnings, return on equity about 16.6 times pretty high relative to its peers.

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[SPEAKER_05]: The exception of maybe a couple names, certainly in the upper 70% there, solid net interest earned growth, solid net income growth.

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[SPEAKER_05]: I would say if you're focused on dividends, you're focused on income.

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[SPEAKER_05]: This is a pretty solid insurance named a whole balance sheet looks good overall.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Not much bad here.

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[SPEAKER_05]: That is American financial group, Tigger AFG.

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[SPEAKER_05]: As we have a new break, let me tell you about a new series, invest talk innovators, Justin Klein, just interviewed Anthony Katz, the visionary founder of Hyperice, and they talked to all about AI in transforming the wellness industry.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Check it out at our invest talk YouTube.

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[SPEAKER_07]: 2025 rolls on and you've got finance and investment questions for just inclined and Luke Guerrero call in Vestock 888 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Hey Justin Lucas Andrew from Atlanta but wanted to ask a question about the meta.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Do you think it would be something that maybe I should take a possession in, looking forward, and it's so what's the entry price?

22:39.072 --> 22:54.908
[SPEAKER_02]: Another thing I was talking about, sister, she was feeling real good about her holdings, and I was telling her, you know, when you're feeling real good, that's probably what you need to trip, and then when you're feeling real bad about something that's probably what you need to buy if the fundamentals are there.

22:55.549 --> 22:59.953
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, I can't get her listen to me.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We'll see if you'll listen to you.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Sure, I hope you guys have a great day.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks, buddy.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Bye.

23:05.198 --> 23:15.648
[SPEAKER_05]: Secret Meta first, Meta formerly known as Facebook, very large company 1.9 trillion dollars, primarily operating through two different segments, right?

23:15.668 --> 23:28.000
[SPEAKER_05]: Their family of apps, which is their social media platforms, their advertising business, and their reality labs, that's your hardware, VR, AR, Metaverse, infrastructure.

23:28.267 --> 23:40.099
[SPEAKER_05]: Now they have heavily invested in AI, right at the built-up large data centers, the super clusters to support all of these advanced neural networks.

23:40.417 --> 23:41.319
[SPEAKER_05]: But that's not where the money is.

23:41.399 --> 23:46.067
[SPEAKER_05]: The money is still their social media and advertising business.

23:46.108 --> 23:48.412
[SPEAKER_05]: That is its core cash machine.

23:48.472 --> 23:59.693
[SPEAKER_05]: And so what they're trying to do by spending billions and billions and I could say multiple times, dollars is trying to diversify that revenue stream.

24:00.594 --> 24:04.281
[SPEAKER_05]: The meta plays to spend about $600 billion.

24:05.122 --> 24:07.024
[SPEAKER_05]: They're 20, 30, on a unit infrastructure.

24:07.765 --> 24:15.673
[SPEAKER_05]: They're just signed to $27 billion financing deal today for their new data center campus in Louisiana.

24:15.993 --> 24:22.880
[SPEAKER_05]: They have AI partnerships, they have chip strategies, they have new hardware that they're trying to push, right?

24:22.900 --> 24:30.508
[SPEAKER_05]: They're new smart glasses with the display, more expensive version of the Rayban meta glasses.

24:31.109 --> 24:34.032
[SPEAKER_05]: And again, this is all to say they're trying to diversify here.

24:35.075 --> 24:41.464
[SPEAKER_05]: and they're really the nexus of these two growth trends, advertising, digital advertising, social platforms, and artificial intelligence.

24:41.544 --> 24:56.604
[SPEAKER_05]: But their business model requires a lot of money and the new growth channels are still early stage, which adds a lot of execution risk, adds a lot of margin pressures.

24:58.426 --> 25:03.613
[SPEAKER_05]: And so the question is with all of these things, is is the proper way to get exposure here.

25:04.387 --> 25:07.510
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, they're trading at 24.6 times price to forward looking earnings.

25:07.590 --> 25:19.082
[SPEAKER_05]: Not as egregious as they have been, certainly near their average pricebook about 9.4 times again, from a valuation perspective, pretty middle of the road, compared to where they have been.

25:19.642 --> 25:23.707
[SPEAKER_05]: You're to need their 25.24% past 52 weeks up 27.49%.

25:27.190 --> 25:32.115
[SPEAKER_05]: Slightly underperforming their industry right now, but revenue growth has started to taper off.

25:32.095 --> 25:35.259
[SPEAKER_05]: and margins, they're still pretty stable.

25:35.320 --> 25:40.507
[SPEAKER_05]: They're net margins sitting at about 37 times or 37% rather.

25:40.527 --> 25:51.302
[SPEAKER_05]: My feeling about meta is I like other plays within this space that aren't burning as much cash in a hopes that something comes of it.

25:51.755 --> 26:00.923
[SPEAKER_05]: And so I think the risk to investing in meta, although it has had a great year given where it is outweighs some of the potential benefits.

26:00.943 --> 26:02.427
[SPEAKER_05]: So for now, I would hang on here.

26:02.447 --> 26:04.313
[SPEAKER_05]: I would hang on here.

26:05.356 --> 26:10.945
[SPEAKER_05]: because at a certain point, the market is gonna demand some results for all of the capital that it's spending.

26:10.965 --> 26:15.312
[SPEAKER_05]: Now to your second point, sell when you're happy about things, buy when you're not.

26:16.134 --> 26:20.080
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that is a good rule broadly when you're talking about the market in general.

26:20.581 --> 26:28.654
[SPEAKER_05]: I wouldn't advise anybody to buy a stock that I feel really bad about, but I think that sentiment definitely is a good idea.

26:28.794 --> 26:30.958
[SPEAKER_05]: When you're thinking about the market broadly,

26:30.938 --> 26:31.199
[SPEAKER_05]: Right?

26:31.440 --> 26:37.559
[SPEAKER_05]: When things start to, when there's blood in the streets, that's when you buy, when everybody's greedy, that's when you're going to want to take some profit.

26:38.080 --> 26:41.190
[SPEAKER_05]: It is M-E-T-A meta platforms.

26:42.013 --> 26:42.274
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.

26:42.595 --> 26:44.661
[SPEAKER_05]: What are we going to talk about?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Next.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, perfect.

26:46.942 --> 27:05.822
[SPEAKER_05]: This is actually pretty good segue because what we've seen recently is a bit of a return to volatility and in some ways that's starting to shake some confidence in the market's most crowded trade, the AI stock boom, which has really fueled record highs this year.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Make a cab tech and ship names, drove the 2025 rally, but concerns over massive new AI infrastructure spending, like Meta's doing.

27:15.500 --> 27:20.408
[SPEAKER_05]: Heaven Vesters, questioning whether valuations have outrun fundamentals.

27:21.009 --> 27:30.544
[SPEAKER_05]: Many are now hedging against a potential AI pullback, rotating into sectors and strategies that could hold up if sentiment turts.

27:31.672 --> 27:35.017
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, equal weighted ETFs, that's certainly one option.

27:35.057 --> 27:42.069
[SPEAKER_05]: They reduce the dominance of AI heavy weights that now make up roughly 44% of the S&P 500's market value.

27:42.810 --> 27:51.564
[SPEAKER_05]: And that's because an equal weight indexed by definition over weights relative to market cap weighted, over weights smaller names.

27:52.165 --> 27:59.316
[SPEAKER_05]: Funds like the I shares S&P 500 equal weight, or in Vesco's version, they're gonna give you every stock in the S&P 500.

27:59.296 --> 28:01.699
[SPEAKER_05]: But they're going to give it to you at an equal way.

28:02.219 --> 28:05.904
[SPEAKER_05]: Both of those up about 8% this year versus the S&P's, 15, right?

28:05.924 --> 28:11.470
[SPEAKER_05]: Because what we've been seeing recently is breadth being an issue in this market.

28:11.490 --> 28:19.440
[SPEAKER_05]: And there are other defensive plays, people tend to go towards health care stocks, which are historically resilient and downturns and supported by steady cash flows of dividends.

28:20.361 --> 28:25.607
[SPEAKER_05]: You're seeing some health care stocks perform well, some insurance names, performing well,

28:25.705 --> 28:33.774
[SPEAKER_05]: And healthcare's valuations look pretty tame 17 times forward-looking earnings versus 21 times for tech, giving a bit of a relative value cushion.

28:33.794 --> 28:36.638
[SPEAKER_05]: That's what you want to look for here if you're trying to diversify and hedge.

28:37.138 --> 28:40.742
[SPEAKER_05]: Where are there cushions in terms of relative valuation?

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[SPEAKER_05]: And maybe you want to look outside the U.S. International markets have drawn inflows as investors diversify from U.S.A.I.

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[SPEAKER_05]: risk X U.S. equity funds.

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[SPEAKER_05]: So I record 50 billion.

28:53.718 --> 29:05.290
[SPEAKER_05]: in inflows in the three months, ending September, several foreign benchmarks are outperforming through U.S. counterparts, especially on a dollar adjusted basis.

29:05.890 --> 29:12.677
[SPEAKER_05]: And so some managers are also saying, okay, well, we don't want to get out of tech, but we want to rotate somewhere else.

29:13.177 --> 29:23.708
[SPEAKER_05]: As you're starting to see a rotation into software companies, specifically once with subscription

29:23.941 --> 29:31.508
[SPEAKER_05]: Gold has emerged as the standout alternative in terms of assets over the past 18 months.

29:31.568 --> 29:43.600
[SPEAKER_05]: Now we did see a bit of a reversal today, but again, how much of that is due to market structure, technicals versus how much are people actually thinking the market is overvalued and gold may be a good place to go?

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[SPEAKER_05]: Either way, what I have laid out for you are not the only options you have for trying

29:53.270 --> 29:56.675
[SPEAKER_05]: But the best time to start to protect it is today.

29:57.816 --> 30:01.121
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's drop in another question from 888 and 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Oh, Jonathan, this is Chris from New York.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Just want to get your thoughts on the company fail, configure a Z-A-L-E.

30:08.591 --> 30:11.775
[SPEAKER_10]: I have a 2% position right now.

30:12.196 --> 30:15.480
[SPEAKER_10]: Just want to get your thoughts on the company and actually be adding more.

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[SPEAKER_10]: I'll probably wait for it to level off a little bit, which one gets your thoughts, and I look forward to hearing your answer on the podcast.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you.

30:22.581 --> 30:23.162
[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you.

30:23.182 --> 30:30.270
[SPEAKER_05]: Ticker V-A-L-E is an ADR of a Brazilian miner.

30:31.331 --> 30:42.885
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, Vail's core business looks like iron ore pellets, nickel copper, manganese ore, along with logistics to support its heavy mining operations.

30:43.085 --> 30:45.109
[SPEAKER_05]: The company is too pretty broad segments, right?

30:45.129 --> 30:50.499
[SPEAKER_05]: They're iron solutions and energy-transition materials making up both of those.

30:50.539 --> 31:03.203
[SPEAKER_05]: And so, you know, that is to say they have a lot of exposure, both to traditional iron or steel making and transition metals, as well as clean energy and electric vehicles.

31:04.077 --> 31:16.628
[SPEAKER_05]: That's a $48 billion market cap company that pretty well year to date up 27.06% year to date up 11.25% in the past three months.

31:17.469 --> 31:21.353
[SPEAKER_05]: And a lot of that is head width or rather tail widths.

31:21.373 --> 31:32.903
[SPEAKER_05]: From the demand for their product, the demand for steel and a traditional sense, the demand for steel for group green energy transition.

31:33.997 --> 31:36.660
[SPEAKER_05]: But that's not to say that the company isn't cyclical, right?

31:37.421 --> 31:45.070
[SPEAKER_05]: It's four chins or tied to the commodity cycle, two iron ore prices to gobble steel demand to nicker copper demand for EVs.

31:47.112 --> 31:50.336
[SPEAKER_05]: And so with it up this much, let's look at the fundamentals.

31:50.356 --> 31:52.638
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, they've only grown at about 30 basis points.

31:54.100 --> 32:02.890
[SPEAKER_05]: On an annualized basis, over the past five years, everybody's actually fallen from December 2022, 43 billion, about 37 net income.

32:04.253 --> 32:05.235
[SPEAKER_05]: Kind of all over the place.

32:05.255 --> 32:09.723
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, based upon this commodity, margins, also all over the place.

32:10.505 --> 32:25.873
[SPEAKER_05]: I would say the only shining part of this is it's training at a reasonable valuation, but I think given the regulatory risk of mining broadly in general and given the concentration

32:26.073 --> 32:33.549
[SPEAKER_05]: of this company and its jurisdiction given that 48.9% of its revenue comes directly from China.

32:34.270 --> 32:40.022
[SPEAKER_05]: I think the risks of this company are a little bit higher than some of your other metal companies.

32:40.042 --> 32:43.048
[SPEAKER_05]: That is V-A-L-E-V-L-S-A.

32:44.171 --> 32:47.237
[SPEAKER_05]: This is in Vestock and we got plenty of time to play two in a row.

32:47.521 --> 32:56.393
[SPEAKER_04]: I have a question about company telly flex incorporated tfx just wondering where you guys think of the company and what a good entry point is.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Thank you for your help.

32:58.056 --> 33:07.108
[SPEAKER_05]: The tfx is the company and the name of the company is telly flex telly flex incorporated.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It is a medical technological products company so it has a couple business segments.

33:13.778 --> 33:27.450
[SPEAKER_05]: It operates through its business as broken into geographically 68% of its revenue comes from the America's 20% comes from Europe and about 12% comes from Asia.

33:27.683 --> 33:33.555
[SPEAKER_05]: That's about a small-to-mid-cap company, 5.7 billion dollars on the smaller mid-cap range.

33:34.276 --> 33:39.868
[SPEAKER_05]: We have no good about 3.3% on an annualized basis going back to past 5 years, really.

33:39.908 --> 33:41.551
[SPEAKER_05]: Not crazy growth there.

33:42.072 --> 33:45.439
[SPEAKER_05]: Sometimes net income has fallen, it looks like.

33:45.419 --> 33:57.410
[SPEAKER_05]: From 2019 to 2024, falling from $4.62 million to about $70 million, I'll be it's supposed to grow again pretty significantly to about $630 million right here.

33:58.271 --> 33:58.951
[SPEAKER_05]: Rather this year.

33:59.612 --> 34:04.756
[SPEAKER_05]: For real, to valuation perspective, it's trading pretty cheap about 8.8 times price to forward looking earnings.

34:04.776 --> 34:15.426
[SPEAKER_05]: 1.4 times price to book value, all at the lower end of its range.

34:15.406 --> 34:28.352
[SPEAKER_05]: percent is what it's down year to date 43.72% over the past 52 weeks, while being up 21.2 over the past three months, there's a lot of volatility here.

34:28.501 --> 34:35.749
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that's probably one of the reasons why it has a consensus hold rating compared to, well, a bunch of other names.

34:36.449 --> 34:40.253
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, they've had some acquisitions on the books that they're trying to work with.

34:40.313 --> 34:53.547
[SPEAKER_05]: They have expansion plans all across the United States, opening up new facilities, trying to meet the rising global demand and cardiological neurological and radiological applications.

34:54.134 --> 34:56.577
[SPEAKER_05]: But it's portfolio's not that broad, right?

34:56.598 --> 35:00.102
[SPEAKER_05]: They have exposure to very similar segments.

35:00.683 --> 35:04.809
[SPEAKER_05]: Growth looks modest, if not, anemic.

35:05.871 --> 35:06.692
[SPEAKER_05]: They didn't come again.

35:07.313 --> 35:10.818
[SPEAKER_05]: Although they're supposed to be big boosted at this year, doesn't look too great.

35:10.838 --> 35:15.264
[SPEAKER_05]: And so I did say, you know, I like a lot of med tech companies.

35:16.426 --> 35:17.527
[SPEAKER_05]: But momentum looks pretty poor here.

35:17.587 --> 35:21.593
[SPEAKER_05]: Technicals of poor and growth doesn't look great.

35:21.725 --> 35:25.105
[SPEAKER_05]: So for now, I would keep this on my watch list.

35:25.125 --> 35:26.131
[SPEAKER_05]: Certainly wouldn't buy into it.

35:26.151 --> 35:29.068
[SPEAKER_05]: That is teleflex to your TFX.

35:29.605 --> 35:36.936
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, let's talk a little bit about spending, because earnings season is off to a pretty strong start.

35:36.956 --> 35:45.949
[SPEAKER_05]: 87% of the S&P 500 have reported at beating profits per LSEG data.

35:45.969 --> 35:49.314
[SPEAKER_05]: We got results from Coca-Cola, 3MGM, Philip Morris.

35:50.235 --> 35:52.118
[SPEAKER_05]: They've highlighted really one key theme.

35:52.378 --> 35:59.308
[SPEAKER_05]: U.S. consumers are pretty resilient,

35:59.474 --> 36:02.119
[SPEAKER_05]: affluent households are by far in a way driving spending.

36:02.160 --> 36:08.934
[SPEAKER_05]: Lower income consumers are continuing to feel the squeeze from not just inflation but higher borrowing costs.

36:08.954 --> 36:14.004
[SPEAKER_05]: Coca-Cola is some margin expansion but warned that lower income shoppers underbit a pressure, right?

36:14.024 --> 36:16.369
[SPEAKER_05]: There are two distinct consumer groups here.

36:17.311 --> 36:26.103
[SPEAKER_05]: 3M raises its profit outlook, but noted weakness in consumer and housing demands, so sales of everyday goods like roofing, granules, were soft.

36:26.123 --> 36:31.671
[SPEAKER_05]: General Motors, well they beat expectations they lifted their full year forecast, after cutting its estimated tariff hit.

36:32.352 --> 36:38.020
[SPEAKER_05]: But they're warning that the lower credit worthy segments aren't really coming to buy cars.

36:38.860 --> 36:40.562
[SPEAKER_05]: They also struck a realistic tone on EVs.

36:40.582 --> 36:45.770
[SPEAKER_05]: They projected slower electric vehicle sales, but stronger at 2026 performance overall.

36:46.491 --> 36:49.275
[SPEAKER_05]: And U.S. auto sales climbed 6% in Q3.

36:49.675 --> 36:56.324
[SPEAKER_05]: Average new car prices topping $50,000 for the first time as buyers gravitated towards these premium models.

36:56.465 --> 37:02.132
[SPEAKER_05]: All signals of where the money is coming from with respect to spending.

37:02.152 --> 37:04.716
[SPEAKER_05]: This consumption gap is fueling

37:05.320 --> 37:18.694
[SPEAKER_05]: a two-speed economy, strong equity markets benefit the wealthy, whose portfolios then amplify spending power, while those who don't own assets are being punished even more with inflation.

37:19.275 --> 37:23.920
[SPEAKER_05]: As long as these affluent earners keep spending, growth is left to flow.

37:24.841 --> 37:31.328
[SPEAKER_05]: Overseas, other companies as well, showing the same thing a de-dis-noting lower-and-consumers struggling.

37:32.455 --> 37:37.022
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, the market struck an upbeat tone, but investors have to handicap what is going on here.

37:38.544 --> 37:41.909
[SPEAKER_05]: When various parts of the economy have differing experiences.

37:43.492 --> 37:46.957
[SPEAKER_05]: As in Vestock, I'm Lou Greer, we have one goal here to help you achieve your financial freedom.

37:47.638 --> 37:51.544
[SPEAKER_05]: Our work continues after this break, so get your questions in now at 888-99 chart.

37:59.810 --> 38:05.037
[SPEAKER_07]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

38:05.578 --> 38:11.086
[SPEAKER_07]: The more you learn about how the market works, the better your chances for success.

38:11.746 --> 38:28.770
[SPEAKER_03]: In Vestark, 888-99 chart.

38:29.054 --> 38:31.013
[SPEAKER_03]: What did you think about their earnings call?

38:31.033 --> 38:32.931
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just a good time to add to my position.

38:33.193 --> 38:33.597
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.

38:33.880 --> 38:36.242
[SPEAKER_05]: Apple, I think, needs no introduction.

38:36.323 --> 38:47.855
[SPEAKER_05]: One of the largest companies on planet Earth, chances are if you're listening to this, you're listening to it on an iPhone, and that's because the ubiquity of Apple's ecosystem is truly unmatched.

38:48.295 --> 38:54.401
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, you're today, they're only up about 4.93%, only up about 23.67% in the past three months.

38:55.122 --> 38:59.787
[SPEAKER_05]: Look, about 11.12% in the past 52%

38:59.767 --> 39:00.188
[SPEAKER_05]: weeks.

39:00.248 --> 39:07.338
[SPEAKER_05]: And so in a way, they're underperforming a lot of those bigger names that are more heavily exposed to the AI space.

39:07.398 --> 39:09.181
[SPEAKER_05]: An Apple really is not.

39:09.201 --> 39:14.508
[SPEAKER_05]: They have not done a huge amount of investment like some of these other companies half.

39:14.729 --> 39:16.692
[SPEAKER_05]: Siri is frankly not great.

39:17.292 --> 39:24.643
[SPEAKER_05]: It compared to it actually just went off on my on my desk when I said it's name, so maybe it's angry, but compared to a lot of

39:24.978 --> 39:27.502
[SPEAKER_05]: What it's doing, what a lot of these other tech companies are doing.

39:27.582 --> 39:30.566
[SPEAKER_05]: That's one of the reasons why the company hasn't fair too well.

39:30.626 --> 39:38.778
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, the most recent earnings suggested that well, the iPhone 17 is doing pretty darn good job of selling, not just in the US, but externally as well.

39:39.299 --> 39:46.629
[SPEAKER_05]: So, by the company is up a bit over the past three months, up 23.67%, it is a name we hold.

39:46.669 --> 39:51.496
[SPEAKER_05]: I'll be at it a lower weight than we held it last year, but we still hold it in one of our strategies.

39:51.516 --> 39:52.858
[SPEAKER_05]: And that's because we think.

39:53.750 --> 40:03.201
[SPEAKER_05]: That it is a name that has a ridiculous amount of cash on its balance sheet, 65.2 billion dollars in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet.

40:03.221 --> 40:11.751
[SPEAKER_05]: It has free cash flow of $110 billion and has revenue of $416 billion net income, $110 billion.

40:11.892 --> 40:16.517
[SPEAKER_05]: It's margins are crazy, it has such power.

40:17.864 --> 40:21.753
[SPEAKER_05]: And it has the cash, too, if it wants to, by an AI play.

40:21.773 --> 40:24.679
[SPEAKER_05]: And so we're going to continue to hold on to Apple, given it to run up.

40:24.699 --> 40:26.844
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm not so sure that I would be adding on here.

40:27.486 --> 40:30.893
[SPEAKER_05]: So if you're up a lot, I would certainly start to trim, take a little bit of profit.

40:30.913 --> 40:34.742
[SPEAKER_05]: But either way, I think it's a pretty solid company that is AAPL.

40:35.330 --> 40:35.631
[SPEAKER_05]: Apple.

40:36.092 --> 40:42.528
[SPEAKER_05]: Now we mentioned it, gold plunged 5.5% today, its sharpest daily drop since August of 2020.

40:43.029 --> 40:49.305
[SPEAKER_05]: As investors took some profits, right, falling a record high above $30, $300 an ounce.

40:50.045 --> 41:01.422
[SPEAKER_05]: The fall snapped a meteoric 60% year-to-date rally fueled by geopolitical tensions, rate cut bets, and sustained central bank accumulation.

41:01.843 --> 41:05.228
[SPEAKER_05]: Traders said volatility records hot, signally bit of exhaustion.

41:05.248 --> 41:09.814
[SPEAKER_05]: You saw a short-term profit taking, triggering this pullback.

41:09.835 --> 41:13.039
[SPEAKER_05]: And gold dips were really being bought, all the way up until yesterday.

41:13.320 --> 41:16.204
[SPEAKER_05]: But the way this volatility has flashed a bit of caution.

41:16.184 --> 41:32.910
[SPEAKER_05]: The U.S. dollar rose about 40 basis points making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers and further pressuring prices and the broader risk on sentiment markets also has been weighing pretty heavily on this safe haven trade as equities rebounded from recent volatility.

41:33.987 --> 41:37.493
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, city and some other analysts expect near-term consolidation.

41:37.533 --> 41:44.205
[SPEAKER_05]: They say progress on the U.S. trying to trade deal and resolution of the government shutdown could steady gold prices.

41:44.325 --> 41:47.731
[SPEAKER_05]: Silver plunged even more at 7.6% today.

41:48.172 --> 41:51.337
[SPEAKER_05]: While Platinum fell 5.9 in palladium dropped, 5.3.

41:51.397 --> 41:55.945
[SPEAKER_05]: So you're seeing this broader retreat across precious metals.

41:56.937 --> 42:01.588
[SPEAKER_05]: Markets are still expecting, though, the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Next week, a backdrop that should keep medium-term support under gold, despite the near-term shakeout.

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[SPEAKER_05]: And so what you're seeing today, as I mentioned at the top of the show, could just be

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[SPEAKER_05]: A result of market structure could just be that this historic run up needed a little bit of room to breathe a little bit of a pullback but the conditions at least for now that existed that have driven gold higher are likely to continue moving forward.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic issues, flight to safety, gold continues to be that trade.

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[SPEAKER_05]: I'm Lou Greer and this completes another Invest talk program.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Justin and I thank you for joining and encouraging you to tell at least one friend, one family member about our free podcast downloads, you can get yours anytime, iTunes and Spotify.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Also, today's show made you think about your financial picture, your investments, your taxes, your retirement, and whether it's all really working together.

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[SPEAKER_05]: That sounds interesting, Justin and I would love to speak with you, just go toinvestalk.com and click on the portfolio review button.

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