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[SPEAKER_01]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor, Justin Klein.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Good afternoon fellow investors, and welcome back to Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is our Wednesday, October 22nd, 2025.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Edition, and there's no denying fall is in the air.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a little warm here, but we are powering through this fourth quarter.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a lot coming up when it comes to market news.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have the Fed meeting.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have the meeting between President Trump and President G of China on the trade war.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And we're in the midst of earnings season.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So a lot to unpack during this hour.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And this hour is dedicated to you.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So hours dedicated to answering your finance and investment questions and bringing you data and perspective.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Bought ahead lines, a lot of distractions, but our job is to keep you focused on the task of hand.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Keeping you focused on the realities on the ground as opposed to how you think your wish the world would be.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're trying to help you understand how the world is.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's what this hour is dedicated to.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, just to be able to talk about today's mark performance and run down the show topics, but as usual, tackle this first-collar question now.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Hi, Justin.

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[SPEAKER_10]: This is Clyde from San Mateo.

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[SPEAKER_10]: I'd like to ask you about a biotech stock called Vistagen.

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[SPEAKER_10]: VTGN, Victor Tom Gary Nelson.

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[SPEAKER_10]: I'd like to get your thoughts on it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you very much for taking the call.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you've listened for any length of time, you'll know that I'm not a big fan of biotechs.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I call it in the original Ponzi stocks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They sell the dream of finding the next cure for some rare disease or for cancer or something else.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And during that time, they go through different trials and burn a lot of capital.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And what they do is, they issue consistently more and more shares.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And this is a name that's no different.

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[SPEAKER_00]: A decade ago, they only had about 60,000 shares outstanding, 2015, 60,000.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What do they have today?

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[SPEAKER_00]: 30.6 million.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's how many shares have been issued over the past decade.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And over that past decade, they've never made any money, they have very little revenue.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You're talking in the hundreds about $200,000 in revenue last quarter.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the tech knows are pretty good.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's an option recently.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now usually that is when there's a rally in these type of names, it's all about

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[SPEAKER_00]: speculation on whether they're going to get through the next phase in their trials.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And 99 times out of 100, maybe 9 and 10 times, they fail or they're disappointed or disappoints the market in general.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, there can be the ones that work out, there's a huge short squeeze because these

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[SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to bet on it and you have under no a lot about the underlying disease and therapeutic, they're trying to develop and you have some sort of edge there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Great.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But unless you do, I would avoid these names.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now let's go talk to Jeric from Canada, looking at EWZ, which is the Brazil ETF.

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[SPEAKER_08]: All right, Justin, thanks for taking my call.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Of course.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Looking at the EWE, I'm just wondering if Brazil is a good emerging economy to have exposure to.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That is a great question in the answer is, yes, I think Brazil is a good economy, anything that's natural resource rich like Brazil and with good demographics tends to be a good place

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[SPEAKER_00]: invest.

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[SPEAKER_00]: However, South America is one of those places that has above average political risk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what you, that's what you have to understand.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Is that while there are some good longer-term tailwinds, there's consistent near-term worries that the

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[SPEAKER_00]: and will likely become more volatile.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so it's with that you have to be okay with that level of volatility.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, this is the name that's been an uptrend pretty much ever since the beginning of the year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And frankly, as well as US equities have done, especially since liberation day, foreign equities have done much, much better since the beginning of the year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And Brazil is no different.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I, I like it, I wouldn't be my only country I have exposure to, but I think it's a smart country to continue to allocate towards in some degree in your portfolio.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So far this year, 35%, but last year was down 30%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So understand that usually these type of investments wax and wind, but I do like it as a part of a foreign allocation overall.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Okay, and I see a good wedge pattern happening on this chart on the weekly.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Would there be a good entry point?

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[SPEAKER_08]: Like I'm looking around like 32 or something if it breaks that wedge, but what are you seeing?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you're right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It isn't a pretty decent downturn.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you want, it's threatening to break that downturn or downtrend, excuse me.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Since the highs in 2021,

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[SPEAKER_00]: draw a trend line here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's right there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So if it does break.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that 32 mark.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That is a clear indication of this downtrend is over.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's already tested downtrend line once and it's kind of hanging around there and usually that is a sign that it's it wants to break to the upside.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I it's not very yet.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not confirming that breakout, but it is threatening it and overall I like what I'm looking at.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, great.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_08]: I appreciate your time as always.

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[SPEAKER_00]: No, bro.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the call.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That was Jerk from Canada.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Looking at EWZ, which is the I shares MSCI Brazil ETF.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now we all know that you're probably making several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter before you do.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I recommend you take a look at our new comprehensive 2025 Q4 economic and market outlook report.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a free read, and it's posted over on investtalk.com.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There are moving to a break, more phone lines are open, waiting for you at 8-8-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Serious investors are certain to have, finance, and investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_03]: What do you think is a good price?

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[SPEAKER_03]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

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[SPEAKER_03]: fractional shares versus whole shares, and 24-7 rain or shine just in climb and loop Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But technically right now, I like it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I like the momentum.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But what's going to don't like those fundamentals?

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[SPEAKER_10]: Now while gold is hitting these record highs, it's driven by the safe, even demand by central bank buying across the board.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Your participation makes an invest talk better.

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[SPEAKER_10]: Colin asked about core in Maine.

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[SPEAKER_10]: This is Josh and North Carolina.

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[SPEAKER_10]: This is Marlow from George City area.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Let's take a live call, Sam from San Jose.

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[SPEAKER_03]: So don't forget to call Invest talk.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Great advice.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Hey, hey, hey, 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Justin Klein is here and he's ready with answers to your finance and investment questions call in Vestalk 88899 chart.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now we have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And our main focus point is covering this topic.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Why gold could be the next Bitcoin?

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[SPEAKER_00]: I love this, I love this because I've heard for the last decade that Bitcoin is the digital gold.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, gold is the analog gold.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And sometimes in a world of chaos, you're on the analog version, something that doesn't have the complexities and has a lot more history than Bitcoin.

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[SPEAKER_00]: why gold continues to outperform this year versus Bitcoin and many other assets, most of our assets.

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[SPEAKER_00]: In addition, we have other topics on the docket.

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[SPEAKER_00]: One is in regards to luxury items.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Did you know that Rolex watches are down 30% from the 222 high and the price of private jets

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, why is that?

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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk about that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What that means for the luxury business.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Also, Walmart made a deal with OpenAI to be included in shopping inquiries on chatGPT.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What might this mean for the entire retail market?

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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll look at that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then if we have time, we'll look at American exceptionalism.

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[SPEAKER_00]: American exceptionalism.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Is it warranted?

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[SPEAKER_00]: When I'm talking about, what I'm talking about is so much money that has been invested in the U.S. equity markets and economy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll look at some numbers on that side as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We also have voice bank calls, one is on catchment management, not sure if that means.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then 10 cent holdings and some questions that came in via the comment section over on the invest talk YouTube channels.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, and of course, we welcome your finance and investment questions right now at 8 a to 8 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So take a look at the market today and it was overall a pretty solid down day.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We did recover a bit into the clothes, the NASDAQ closed down a little less than 1% S&P down about a half a percent.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We had the broad US market down about two thirds of 1%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And really it was the growth side of the market that struggled the most.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So you had names like, uh, what was it, uh, Texas instruments that had pretty poor earnings AT&T down to percent, you had, uh, video down about a half a percent, you had apple down decently or some of their big movers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of the,

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[SPEAKER_00]: offload one of the small modular actor companies that was down a lot of the quantum computing names down 15% or more.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So it was certainly a rough name for the more speculative parts of the market that have been up as of late.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This kind of echoes what I've been saying recently about liquidity drying up in markets.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And now we are probably headed to a more

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[SPEAKER_00]: one where the fiscal policy of SUNY monetary policy is a bit looser, but it means time so we get that in full, there's a bit of a liquidity air pocket.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think in the short term, and then obviously you have catalysts of earnings of the trade war, fed policy that could potentially disappoint markets and continue to bring more volatility.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that is something we'll be watching for Netflix did have earnings that missed by about 11% so that was down pretty nicely as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's see what else.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We've tested down after hours relatively poor earnings.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then we're the other asset.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Strasuries little changed.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, the 20 year auction was well received.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That was good.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Dollar index was flat.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Goldfinish down 1.1% after a 6% decline yesterday.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we're getting a nice little refresh.

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[SPEAKER_00]: In sentiment, I think on the gold market.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that was good Bitcoin features down 3.4% 3.4% and WTI crude up 2.2 after report the US lifted restrictions on Ukraine using Western long-range missiles against Russia and that could.

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[SPEAKER_00]: upend their oil industry and allow you crane to inflict even more damage and they've already done.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you know this, but a lot of the drones, they've been flying drones into Russia and damaging a lot of their oil refineries and infrastructure to move oil and gas.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that's kind of really hurt as of late.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so

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[SPEAKER_00]: If that's another tool in our arsenal, this could certainly bring down overall supply for oil from Russia.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So that was part of the reason for oil being up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So that was the market today.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're still in, I think, in a pullback period with higher volatility to come.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, are moving to a break still to come?

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[SPEAKER_00]: My focus point and more answers to your questions.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, whatever's on your mind, money related, no question is too simple or too complex.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We are here to help.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, I encourage you to call now on a best stock at 8-8-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Invest talk is ready 24-7 for your finance and investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm hoping you'll give me your take on Oromat Technologies, O-R-A.

15:16.393 --> 15:23.371
[SPEAKER_05]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest in to better stocks?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Don't forget to call, Invest Talk, 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_03]: 24-7, Rainer Shine, there's always value in the Invest Talk podcast, 888-99, chart.

15:52.464 --> 15:58.230
[SPEAKER_00]: Our main focus point is about why gold could be the next Bitcoin.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I love this topic.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We all know gold's been in the news, well above $4,000 an ounce.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And it's pulled back last few days, but still kind of around the $4,100 mark.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And investment investors are talking a lot more about the debasement trade, which is kind of shocking that this is just being discussed because it's really been a many decade path

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[SPEAKER_00]: this inevitable endpoint, which is debasing the currency in flighting way of the debt, et cetera.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, historically, gold and Bitcoin have moved pretty closely because they're both in many ways liquidity proxies.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The gold tends to have more correlation with $7, whereas Bitcoin has more correlation with text docs.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Then either are perfect and they certainly can decouple from those other measures.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But right now, they're especially decoupling from each other.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So how should investors think about this?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with goal.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There are three main drivers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: to the gold, especially recent move.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Number one is Chinese buying.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Number two is dollar policy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then number three is retail interest.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then what's the biggest factor?

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[SPEAKER_00]: At least as of late, absolutely Chinese buying.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And what I think is happening here is China is expanding what is called the Shanghai gold exchange.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And they opened a vault in Hong Kong.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And basically they want to use the U1 as a global currency.

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[SPEAKER_00]: problem is that most people don't, most countries don't really trust China, and they flow the idea of having a back by gold, however, they're not going to believe that they actually have that gold.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Then I can trust the Chinese government just to say that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So what they're going to do is, and they've already started this, they opened the first offshore.

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[SPEAKER_00]: vaults and that's in Hong Kong, voice of free trade.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They're gonna open another one in Singapore, Zurich, and Dubai.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The Asia, Middle East, Europe.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And these are going to be audited and everyone's gonna know exactly how much gold are in these vaults.

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[SPEAKER_00]: In order to expand this, they've been buying warrants for delivery.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And demand has exploded really since July.

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[SPEAKER_00]: since the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in Hong Kong.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So that is the main source of demand as of late.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And why I think gold prices have gone somewhat parabolic.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have the retail trader, obviously, chasing the returns.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And you have the dollars been weak this year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But it hasn't been that weak against other currencies as of late.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But gold is the original currency.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so it absolutely has been weak and bear to gold.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And what's interesting about the retail side is that retail, retail's been focused on Bitcoin.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They've been focused on owning that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the allocation to gold is extremely low.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Run 2% of the average portfolio.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I believe in,

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[SPEAKER_00]: The 80s, it peaked that around 8% of the average portfolio.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So there's still a lot of room for the retail investor to buy more.

19:38.971 --> 19:44.317
[SPEAKER_00]: So for all these reasons and the geopolitical volatility, still remain bullish on gold.

19:44.517 --> 19:48.561
[SPEAKER_00]: Even though you're going to get these pullbacks, I talked to, I think it was on Monday, as got a caller.

19:49.102 --> 19:51.685
[SPEAKER_00]: And I said, don't be surprised.

19:52.025 --> 20:01.095
[SPEAKER_00]: If you get a 10% to 20% pullback in the gold miners in a very quick order, because of the retail firver.

20:01.885 --> 20:03.707
[SPEAKER_00]: and what do we get just a day or two later?

20:03.747 --> 20:05.008
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got that massive pullback.

20:06.890 --> 20:11.435
[SPEAKER_00]: But in the context of history of volatility within this space, that's very normal.

20:12.176 --> 20:18.123
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're going to invest, understand the volatility, be comfortable with it.

20:18.143 --> 20:20.065
[SPEAKER_00]: You know what about Bitcoin?

20:20.085 --> 20:21.747
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin is naturally even more volatile.

20:21.767 --> 20:24.990
[SPEAKER_00]: So you know, like volatility, you shouldn't be playing Bitcoin either.

20:25.392 --> 20:28.477
[SPEAKER_00]: And as of late, it's struggling to really break out.

20:28.617 --> 20:31.561
[SPEAKER_00]: And frankly, I think it's headed for a top.

20:31.581 --> 20:33.364
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it might have already topped.

20:33.384 --> 20:37.711
[SPEAKER_00]: Or could we get one last rally in Bitcoin, potentially?

20:38.933 --> 20:44.000
[SPEAKER_00]: But most likely, I think we're near at least a medium-term top.

20:44.020 --> 20:53.695
[SPEAKER_00]: There's the having cycle, and we're kind of near the end of the having cycle, and previous times has happened until, like, to a bear market.

20:54.552 --> 20:55.253
[SPEAKER_00]: speaks to that.

20:55.353 --> 21:01.061
[SPEAKER_00]: Speak to what is likely to be a Bitcoin bear market over the next 12 to 24 months.

21:02.123 --> 21:12.278
[SPEAKER_00]: And they continued allocation towards gold by retail investors as well as central banks, especially China.

21:12.318 --> 21:17.505
[SPEAKER_00]: The next investment stock will look into the stock, the coding the market for strategies to anticipate stock trends.

21:17.755 --> 21:28.577
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll break down how investors can combine momentum indicators, fundamental and technical analysis, mean reversion theory, and sentiment signals to make more informed predictions about where the stock market might be headed.

21:29.139 --> 21:34.650
[SPEAKER_00]: That's story tomorrow, but for now I'm Justin Klein and ready to take your calls right now on 80 to 99 chart.

21:43.220 --> 21:51.789
[SPEAKER_03]: In Vestock innovators, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, interview company leaders, founders, and visionaries.

21:52.350 --> 21:57.676
[SPEAKER_03]: So head over to the In Vestock YouTube channel and look for In Vestock innovators.

21:58.176 --> 22:03.682
[SPEAKER_03]: Justin Klein is here now and ready to answer your finance and investment questions.

22:03.963 --> 22:08.688
[SPEAKER_03]: Call in Vestock 888-99, chart.

22:08.708 --> 22:09.649
[SPEAKER_04]: Hi, I'm Vestock.

22:10.017 --> 22:19.931
[SPEAKER_04]: Today my question is about cash management, I'm about 15% cash and I just feel like it's not doing anything for me.

22:20.051 --> 22:39.298
[SPEAKER_04]: So my idea was to increase my position and one of these derivative income ETFs that sell call options and have the high dividend of course and then imagine a year from now the markets have gone down a fair bit.

22:39.498 --> 22:48.570
[SPEAKER_04]: my position in one of these ETFs and then I would buy the indexes and then hopefully write it into the next full market.

22:48.590 --> 22:57.982
[SPEAKER_04]: But now I'm having second thoughts because I listen to which I've been saying to be careful about these derivative income ETFs.

22:58.222 --> 23:00.865
[SPEAKER_04]: So any guidance you could provide would be great.

23:01.026 --> 23:05.812
[SPEAKER_04]: I just want to be prepared for when the markets come down a bit.

23:05.932 --> 23:08.475
[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks for all

23:08.540 --> 23:20.614
[SPEAKER_00]: Great question, and I like that you are embodying our warning that these derivative ETFs are not all they're cracked up to be.

23:21.155 --> 23:31.447
[SPEAKER_00]: That, yes, they might, they might make a look like they have these huge yields, but what you need to focus on are the total returns.

23:32.588 --> 23:38.175
[SPEAKER_00]: And sometimes that can be good, sometimes, that's okay.

23:39.083 --> 23:43.171
[SPEAKER_00]: Dirty derivative ETFs focus just on the yield.

23:43.672 --> 23:46.477
[SPEAKER_00]: Cause it's not really a yield, it's not.

23:47.860 --> 23:54.192
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, a lot of them, you look, the price is decline and they're giving you money back, in many instances.

23:55.214 --> 24:01.125
[SPEAKER_00]: And so your total growth of your portfolio is not double digits.

24:01.460 --> 24:13.698
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so if you think the market is going to pull back cash and you know, you probably want it in something that's yielding something decent like a short-term treasury fund or a high yield money market fund something like that.

24:13.758 --> 24:15.801
[SPEAKER_00]: So make sure it's in something like that.

24:15.841 --> 24:23.232
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you think the markets want to pull back, these high yield or these these derivative ETFs are not going to help you.

24:23.212 --> 24:29.417
[SPEAKER_00]: Most of them are covered call ETFs, and if the market goes down 20%, are you even going down less than the overall market?

24:29.618 --> 24:31.399
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, but you're still going to go down.

24:31.960 --> 24:33.341
[SPEAKER_00]: Do not think they're a panacea.

24:34.182 --> 24:36.904
[SPEAKER_00]: They are simply wall dampening.

24:36.924 --> 24:38.625
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what it is designed to do.

24:38.665 --> 24:46.732
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to use, and this is my issue with the SEC, they're not cracking down on the things they need to.

24:47.353 --> 24:53.218
[SPEAKER_00]: In order to protect and inform the average retail investor, they're allowing these funds

24:53.468 --> 24:57.773
[SPEAKER_00]: Quote some big yield when the reality is, it's not real yield.

24:58.314 --> 25:03.740
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would just keep the cash if you were trying to capitalize on a market downturn in the next year or so.

25:04.121 --> 25:06.844
[SPEAKER_00]: Those key things going in play too in a row from eight to eight, nine new nine chart.

25:07.084 --> 25:09.968
[SPEAKER_09]: Hi there, my name is Joe Kulling from Nashville.

25:09.988 --> 25:14.413
[SPEAKER_09]: I only have a question about ticker symbol TCE-HY.

25:15.134 --> 25:18.278
[SPEAKER_09]: Tencent multinational company based at a China

25:18.528 --> 25:21.431
[SPEAKER_09]: video games, FinTech, so on and so forth.

25:21.872 --> 25:26.257
[SPEAKER_09]: Currently, it makes up about 5% lower of my portfolio.

25:26.797 --> 25:34.286
[SPEAKER_09]: I like the business, so I would like to get your take on it, is worth holding or something I should look to.

25:34.306 --> 25:36.128
[SPEAKER_09]: So, listening for the show, thank you.

25:36.889 --> 25:39.011
[SPEAKER_00]: At 10 Cent, holdings.

25:39.572 --> 25:47.421
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is rallied from its lows back in March of 2024.

25:48.447 --> 25:52.232
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are in $4.29, and it's about a $8 stock.

25:52.252 --> 25:54.975
[SPEAKER_00]: So about 20 times forward-looking earnings, not bad.

25:55.015 --> 25:59.440
[SPEAKER_00]: The issue is always with China and the risk around that.

26:00.662 --> 26:03.305
[SPEAKER_00]: And that would be my way.

26:03.345 --> 26:06.349
[SPEAKER_00]: So how much exposure do you have to the Chinese market?

26:07.390 --> 26:17.863
[SPEAKER_00]: They've been trying to counter the trade war with providing a lot of liquidity into the market.

26:18.637 --> 26:19.058
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's help.

26:19.238 --> 26:27.292
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's help their stocks, their economy, et cetera, and intense it to only got some tailwinds from that.

26:28.273 --> 26:29.455
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that will continue.

26:31.719 --> 26:36.527
[SPEAKER_00]: And the chart looks fine as pulling back as of late probably more worries around the trade war.

26:38.144 --> 26:47.796
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, is it a time to maybe trim a little bit because of this run from the mid 30s back last spring, all the way to 80 now?

26:47.976 --> 26:48.757
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, probably.

26:49.638 --> 26:57.728
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's a fine company, good business, solid growth, but there's still that China risk.

26:58.248 --> 27:04.776
[SPEAKER_00]: And you have to be cognizant of that and know that that is part of investing in China.

27:06.089 --> 27:10.013
[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, I'll trim it, but definitely wouldn't sell the whole thing.

27:11.374 --> 27:11.895
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the call.

27:13.776 --> 27:17.400
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk about luxury goods, luxury goods.

27:19.102 --> 27:20.243
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is very interesting.

27:21.464 --> 27:25.988
[SPEAKER_00]: Especially in the light and light of the fact that asset prices continue to go up.

27:27.990 --> 27:33.936
[SPEAKER_00]: The richest point one percent of Americans now hold 14 percent of the country's wealth, the most in many decades.

27:35.165 --> 27:48.164
[SPEAKER_00]: Yet when you look at things like private jets and boats, prices are down 6% over the last year or so, roll x's, down 30% from the 2022 high, even fine art is down.

27:49.146 --> 27:55.715
[SPEAKER_00]: And two years ago, Billionaire's row in San Francisco, there were houses for $30 plus million dollars.

27:57.017 --> 27:59.120
[SPEAKER_00]: Now they're into the mid to low 20s.

28:00.623 --> 28:04.969
[SPEAKER_00]: And what's interesting here is that they're spending

28:05.152 --> 28:12.547
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're doing so because fancy products and big expensive brands, they're kind of everywhere.

28:13.429 --> 28:21.866
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not really unique anymore, especially with social media, everyone's posting there, Prada and Louis Vuitton, etc.

28:22.929 --> 28:24.612
[SPEAKER_00]: It's no longer scarce.

28:24.828 --> 28:28.012
[SPEAKER_00]: and in a longer seems as luxurious for the ultra wealthy.

28:28.593 --> 28:29.454
[SPEAKER_00]: So what are they spending on?

28:29.554 --> 28:31.577
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, they're spending on services, mainly.

28:32.779 --> 28:35.662
[SPEAKER_00]: And very, very unique experiences.

28:36.443 --> 28:47.097
[SPEAKER_00]: So this comes from the economist, and they create an index of ultra luxury services, things like super bull tickets and three star, Michelin meals.

28:48.619 --> 28:52.084
[SPEAKER_00]: And since 2019, that index is up 90%

28:52.756 --> 28:57.562
[SPEAKER_00]: while goods within luxury space have actually fallen in price since 2023.

28:59.865 --> 29:01.868
[SPEAKER_00]: People are spending more on housekeepers.

29:03.389 --> 29:08.436
[SPEAKER_00]: For example, salaries for housekeepers are 50% higher than they were in 2019.

29:09.738 --> 29:21.953
[SPEAKER_00]: Housekeepers in Palm Beach, they often make 150 grand a year and then when it comes to things like Subaru will take it they're up by double from what they were just a few years ago.

29:23.333 --> 29:28.721
[SPEAKER_00]: the menu at a three-star restaurant in terms of scope, the 78% since 2015.

29:29.783 --> 29:45.627
[SPEAKER_00]: And so when you're looking at these companies that sell, quote unquote, luxury items, understand that the wealthier no longer, the primary buyers, it's the upper middle class.

29:47.570 --> 29:50.134
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the question is, is that eventually,

29:51.886 --> 29:58.773
[SPEAKER_00]: spread to the upper middle class and does the demand for those products in total decline as well.

29:59.954 --> 30:07.082
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's something to take note of because for forever if you go look at LVMH for example.

30:08.203 --> 30:16.832
[SPEAKER_00]: And at one point was I think the owner was one of the largest companies in the world largest or was wealthy individuals in the world.

30:17.553 --> 30:21.437
[SPEAKER_00]: But LVMH stock peaked in

30:22.312 --> 30:29.941
[SPEAKER_00]: That's rallied recently from lower on the 100 to 144, but still, not great performance since 2023.

30:31.964 --> 30:34.527
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go with another call of question this time from Minnesota.

30:35.628 --> 30:37.871
[SPEAKER_05]: Hello, this is Slena from Minneapolis.

30:37.911 --> 30:42.636
[SPEAKER_05]: I had a question on Baker's newspaper symbol is the KR.

30:42.656 --> 30:46.621
[SPEAKER_05]: A little confused about you waiting to stop.

30:46.641 --> 30:47.823
[SPEAKER_05]: I own it.

30:48.003 --> 30:50.766
[SPEAKER_05]: If you could just tell me what you think of the KR.

30:51.235 --> 31:00.324
[SPEAKER_05]: And if you like the space and if I should consider adding more, or if I should consider selling, all right, thank you for that.

31:00.344 --> 31:20.365
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm looking at Baker Hughes, a $46 billion oil and gas service company, and mainly it's selling machinery equipment to the global oil and natural gas industries.

31:21.712 --> 31:22.413
[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty solid, Nate.

31:23.575 --> 31:32.387
[SPEAKER_00]: It's return equity is around 18%, free cash flow about $2 billion, minimal debt, $46 billion mark count, like I said.

31:33.949 --> 31:35.752
[SPEAKER_00]: Forward enterprise value to EBITDA around 10.

31:37.835 --> 31:41.500
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's in an uptrend, it's certainly outperforming most others within the space.

31:44.805 --> 31:50.132
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I see no reason to sell it, unless you're just trying to get out of,

31:51.226 --> 31:53.989
[SPEAKER_00]: the oil service industry as a whole.

31:55.611 --> 32:00.056
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I would continue to hold Baker use.

32:00.077 --> 32:02.700
[SPEAKER_00]: That is B, K, R is the symbol.

32:04.121 --> 32:18.178
[SPEAKER_00]: And in an area where there are a lot of great opportunities, frankly, in the energy space, these are the type of names that this is the type of name that should continue to win

32:19.289 --> 32:24.656
[SPEAKER_00]: weather, capex, waxes or wanes, they're still going to be demand for their end products.

32:26.098 --> 32:29.783
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the MS talk voice pick never closes, so let's play another fresh question now.

32:30.364 --> 32:41.398
[SPEAKER_06]: Guys, I'm interested in investing in these two industrial companies, eaten, symbol ETN, in caterpillar, symbol CAT.

32:41.859 --> 32:48.267
[SPEAKER_06]: I know they're pretty expensive right now and I was wondering

32:48.837 --> 32:52.545
[SPEAKER_00]: Right, ETN and caterpillar.

32:53.326 --> 33:01.463
[SPEAKER_00]: So, eaten is provides electrical power and control, equipment hydrology systems and drive trains.

33:01.983 --> 33:14.302
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's more of an OEM part manufacturer, but also provides energy efficient solutions in the electrical segment.

33:14.322 --> 33:21.333
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's certainly doing well for the aerospace industry and AI infrastructure.

33:22.895 --> 33:24.958
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the technicals are rolling over.

33:25.118 --> 33:30.707
[SPEAKER_00]: I will say that they don't look great near term and had a big down day to day three and a half percent.

33:31.852 --> 33:32.974
[SPEAKER_00]: Where did my entry point be?

33:33.534 --> 33:35.978
[SPEAKER_00]: Down around $300 per share.

33:37.440 --> 33:44.671
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, so there aren't $13 next year, and it needs to be a more reasonable valuation.

33:44.691 --> 33:48.036
[SPEAKER_00]: 300 is probably where I would start to think about buying it.

33:48.857 --> 33:51.981
[SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, I think a better, let me give you a better number.

33:53.544 --> 33:55.166
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 300, that's the number.

33:55.887 --> 34:01.335
[SPEAKER_00]: On, even, caterpillar, however,

34:02.294 --> 34:10.306
[SPEAKER_00]: They make construction to mining equipment, literally mining is in demand with gold and rare earth metals and things like that.

34:10.869 --> 34:13.198
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think this is kind of a rare earth metal play.

34:13.702 --> 34:14.203
[SPEAKER_00]: I like that.

34:14.243 --> 34:22.473
[SPEAKER_00]: But once again, there's another name where it's having some recent underperformance and I think it could be for a nice pullback.

34:22.873 --> 34:27.319
[SPEAKER_00]: That entry point would be right around $420 per share.

34:27.939 --> 34:30.583
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like both businesses.

34:30.883 --> 34:36.810
[SPEAKER_00]: They're both not cheap, but on large enough pullbacks, I think they can both be a buy.

34:38.092 --> 34:42.257
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the call.

34:43.115 --> 34:46.523
[SPEAKER_07]: Hey guys, Kyle from Texas, just comment about Monday.

34:46.764 --> 34:50.292
[SPEAKER_07]: Don't know much about it, so just want to get y'all the extra keys on it.

34:50.673 --> 34:52.036
[SPEAKER_07]: Thank y'all, appreciate it.

34:52.056 --> 34:59.554
[SPEAKER_00]: Monday.com offers cloud-based platform tools to build software applications and work management tools.

35:00.817 --> 35:06.605
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a name that was pretty hyped, and the technicals have certainly weakened.

35:06.625 --> 35:07.786
[SPEAKER_00]: It's now in a downtrend.

35:08.247 --> 35:15.497
[SPEAKER_00]: It had poor earnings back in August, and it's just simply been shopping sideways since around the 1801-90 level.

35:16.298 --> 35:22.006
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, earnings next year are supposed to be $4.68, since the $190 stock.

35:23.448 --> 35:25.170
[SPEAKER_00]: That's still pretty expensive.

35:26.585 --> 35:36.560
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think one of the biggest risks in markets are when you invest in a name that's trading at expense of multiples and is now in a downtrend.

35:37.942 --> 35:39.764
[SPEAKER_00]: Price is sales ratio is at nine.

35:40.646 --> 35:41.126
[SPEAKER_00]: Very high.

35:41.968 --> 35:42.909
[SPEAKER_00]: Price to free cash flow.

35:43.189 --> 35:47.255
[SPEAKER_00]: 30, return equity only four per cent.

35:49.499 --> 35:51.121
[SPEAKER_00]: And growth is slowing.

35:52.122 --> 35:53.925
[SPEAKER_00]: Revenue growth is in the mid 30s.

35:54.817 --> 36:03.587
[SPEAKER_00]: in 2024 and this last quarter is at 27 and this quarter coming up is just to be 24 and earnings growth is only supposed to be 3%.

36:04.448 --> 36:11.436
[SPEAKER_00]: So what are you going to pay for a business that is now flattening out from a growth perspective?

36:12.017 --> 36:14.540
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm certainly not paying 30, 40 times earnings.

36:14.560 --> 36:16.302
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm passing on Monday.

36:17.952 --> 36:19.556
[SPEAKER_00]: This is Invest.com, Justin Klein.

36:19.576 --> 36:23.766
[SPEAKER_00]: We have one goal here each and every week that it's up to you to achieve your own version of venture.

36:23.787 --> 36:28.418
[SPEAKER_00]: For you know, when I work continues after this final break, let's get your questions in right now and eight to eight nine new inch art.

36:35.738 --> 36:41.745
[SPEAKER_03]: Millions of downloads have proved there's value in every invest talk podcast.

36:42.326 --> 36:44.108
[SPEAKER_03]: Call any time 24-7.

36:44.428 --> 36:49.314
[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk 888-99 chart.

36:54.120 --> 37:01.088
[SPEAKER_00]: ChatGPT and Walmart have announced a bit of a partnership.

37:02.097 --> 37:13.749
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if you zoom out, however, this partnership actually could be threatening all retailers, including Walmart.

37:14.930 --> 37:19.535
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, a lot of retailers web traffic currently comes from things like Google searches.

37:20.276 --> 37:25.962
[SPEAKER_00]: But in that instance, shoppers need to click on something and go to the site and complete the purchase.

37:26.330 --> 37:36.542
[SPEAKER_00]: The idea with chatGBT and any of these other LOMs is for ultimately the decision to be done in the app.

37:36.623 --> 37:46.859
[SPEAKER_00]: The process to be the checkout process to be done within the chat feature, but give an order I want to buy it and then it's simply charge.

37:46.879 --> 37:51.646
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to put in your address or your credit card number or anything like that.

37:51.907 --> 37:54.210
[SPEAKER_00]: It's all part of the ecosystem.

37:54.230 --> 38:05.027
[SPEAKER_00]: And then open AI or any one of the LM companies, AI companies will earn some sort of a small fee to complete the purchase.

38:05.767 --> 38:13.674
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, chatGPT is the most popular AI chatbot, about three-force of total AI chatbot traffic comes through chatGPT.

38:14.075 --> 38:16.777
[SPEAKER_00]: The interesting I use perplexity, that's my preferred one.

38:17.478 --> 38:22.243
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's better, but everyone has their own preferences.

38:22.783 --> 38:25.926
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not a sponsorship, that's just telling what I use.

38:26.807 --> 38:35.335
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, about 2% of conversations on chatGPT are related to shopping and some way shape reform.

38:35.855 --> 38:41.760
[SPEAKER_00]: earlier this year said they use generative AI for online shopping.

38:41.780 --> 38:47.426
[SPEAKER_00]: That could be just finding product, product recommendations or finding deals.

38:48.547 --> 38:50.248
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that will happen more and more and more.

38:51.309 --> 39:03.060
[SPEAKER_00]: But if a LM is doing its job, it's going to be hard to square truly answering those questions effectively and honestly,

39:03.175 --> 39:14.968
[SPEAKER_00]: with placement of ads because that's another area that this will be pushed towards because remember these AI companies are starved for revenue.

39:15.629 --> 39:29.605
[SPEAKER_00]: You're 20 bucks a month that you're paying for Chatchee PT or your favorite LM is frankly not enough to make up for the massive

39:29.804 --> 39:39.136
[SPEAKER_00]: So letting shoppers chop directly through an LM is likely to come at a cost to the retailer and will it be worth it?

39:39.276 --> 39:39.817
[SPEAKER_00]: Is the question?

39:40.518 --> 39:41.339
[SPEAKER_00]: Just think of airlines.

39:42.741 --> 39:49.590
[SPEAKER_00]: Most likely you're not buying or least searching for your flight through the airline website directly.

39:49.750 --> 39:52.774
[SPEAKER_00]: You're probably doing it from a third party booking site.

39:53.598 --> 39:55.760
[SPEAKER_00]: I use kayak, but there's many other ones as well.

39:56.501 --> 40:08.053
[SPEAKER_00]: Now then you can go there, but oftentimes you can go right around it, and there's just a weird relationship between those companies and these third party booking sites.

40:08.874 --> 40:13.979
[SPEAKER_00]: And so this will ultimately become a challenge to figure out what this business model looks like.

40:14.580 --> 40:17.783
[SPEAKER_00]: Will it ultimately hurt retailers and their loyalty?

40:17.847 --> 40:20.731
[SPEAKER_00]: Will it zap them with add opportunities as well?

40:20.751 --> 40:32.287
[SPEAKER_00]: Remember, not only do the Walmart and Amazon's the world make money when you buy something off their site, but they actually, if you notice this when you search, you usually get advertisements as well.

40:32.868 --> 40:37.915
[SPEAKER_00]: Certain number of those products rise to the top and are at and they get paid for that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And this is why Amazon is not allowing external AI chatbots to actually look at its site and scan it for products and pricing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Because they see the potential problem here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I think it's inevitable.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, e-commerce won't be fully displaced by gender to AI, just as normal retail stores aren't.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But it's going to be a challenge to your average retailer, including the big big guys.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Because now, and you can argue, it even makes it more possible now to avoid the Amazon's avoid the Walmart's and find the best price and best product anywhere in the internet.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Because you're not doing the work anymore, the AI tools will be.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So this frictionless shopping is a dream for retailers, but it ultimately could be the demise of some of these bigger box retailers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now I'm Justin Klein.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If today's show may you think about your own financial picture in any way, your investments, taxes, retirements, planning, whatever it is.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Good night.

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