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[SPEAKER_04]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm your host, Lou Guerrero.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Today's a Friday, October 31st, 20, 25.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, before we get out and about, maybe with our friends, dressed for the Halloween weekend or with our kids, going to get them as much candy as possible.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We got a lot to talk about, because the month of October is over.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We are headed in to November, the final stretch is here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And before you know it, the year will be gone.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And as we learn this year, things move incredibly quickly.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So it's critical in these moments to have a routine a way for you to continue to be focused.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so we here at Investoc hope that we are but a small part of your journey, our objective,

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's for you the investor, you the listener to leave each show a little bit better, a little bit more informed.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now to that end, we have a mixture of educational and actionable material to go over today.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But because the most important part of this show are your questions, let's answer one now.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Hey, Justin, I'm Luke.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I hope you guys are done well.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I want to check in the suit you guys thought about the company five-serve, ticker symbol, F-I,

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[SPEAKER_06]: Looks like it's a down pretty hard here today.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Looks like they missed their Q3 earnings report.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So I wanted to see what you guys thought about it.

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[SPEAKER_06]: It's a good company and possibly a good time to buy.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Have a great day.

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[SPEAKER_00]: FI-SERVE is a global fin tech company.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What they do is they provide payments and banking infrastructure help to financial services.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Companies and to merchants.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And in this time where there's a lot of competition for payment flow, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Because this company does mobile payments, they do fraud security solutions, they do payment platform.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's difficult to get ahead.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now this company is fairly large.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's $35 billion.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And as the caller said, it has been a very, very rough year down 67.53% year to date down 52% over the last three months alone, Q3, 2025 results, far below consensus revenue, also below consensus.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They revised downward, they are full-year guidance for this fiscal year and they started to have some leadership and structural changes.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes, there can be a bit of a market overreaction.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But you don't want to look at a situation where you have a massive drop off, massive drop off, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of this happening.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, just this week, there's trading at $127 per share on the 25th.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And this is a situation where earnings were bad.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Guidance is bad, everything seems to be bad.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have a leadership shake up because things are going well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That makes this a very, very, very risky time to enter this name and in spite of the

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[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, it's been on a downward trajectory from the beginning of the year when it used to trade it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: 208, and so when I really seeing anything that makes me say, well, yeah, now is the time to jump into this name.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Why do I got lock on wrong?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Not a lot going, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: That is five serve ink, ticker FI.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We got a lot of going to cover in the next 45 minutes or so, and here's a little bit of what we have planned.

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[SPEAKER_00]: My main focus point concerns this story.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The go-live-your-life rule, rethinking retirement spending.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Why the so-called guardrails approach that is adjusting spending up or down based on market performance is gaining traction over the fixed 4% rule in retirement.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Also, speaking of retirement, we'll talk about how, given the recent performance of stocks,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Should you just only buy stocks from now until you die?

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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll still touch on home purchases and how a lot more of them have started to fall through and why that could be a warning sign for the economy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Should we have time at the end of the show?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Robots are taking a lot of jobs sees across the United States putting robots to work.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We also have some voice-make calls ready to play, including one on Qualcomm Incorporated to your QCOM, and another on the three buckets retirement strategy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As always, we also got some questions from the comments section of the Investor on the YouTube channel, and of course, I welcome your finance and investment questions now or any time throughout the show.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Moving to New Break.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And it is very likely that you'll probably be making several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Before you do, I recommend that you look at our new comprehensive Q42025 economic and market outlook report.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a free read and it is posted now at www.investalk.com.

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[SPEAKER_00]: My phone lines are open waiting for you now at 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The prosperous future you envision for yourself and your family will not happen without strategic planning and definitive action.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's got a bright-end San Mateo looking at Roku.

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[SPEAKER_06]: And I wanted you to take on the technical picture.

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[SPEAKER_01]: For the unprepared investor, market volatility around the world demonstrates risk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: but opportunities wait for no one and now maybe the best time in years to invest wisely to invest strategically.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What I would do is keep saving and look for other opportunities.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But how can you decide what sectors to avoid?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Which stocks to buy and what might be the best price point?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm new to investing in my friend Wesley recommend your podcast a year ago.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The next decisive step on your path to financial freedom begins with a Spotify search for Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Listen live or download the free podcast.

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[SPEAKER_05]: The Invest Talk phone lines never close and now loop Guerrero is here taking your calls live.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Invest Talk 888-99

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I'll talk a little bit about the market today as the month is over US stocks finished a bit higher, S&P Dow Jones Nasdaq all logs solid weekly games with the S&P Notching its sixth straight month of positive performance.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The Dow up nine basis points has some P500 up 26 NAS DAC up 61 Russell 2000 up 54.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's take a look at sectors big tech mostly lower, but Amazon a big gainer on its earnings report.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Other underperformers included managed care, pharma, oil services, PNC insurers, and waste.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Relative outperformers included software, exchanges entertainment money center banks and credit cards.

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[SPEAKER_00]: On the bond side treasuries, pretty mixed.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You did see a bit of curve steepening to end the month.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the dollar was up 30 basis points, and gold was down 50 basis points, but still above that newly gained $4,000 an ounce level.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Crude oil, a bit off of best levels after the president denied he was planning strikes on Venezuela settled up about 70 basis points on the day.

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[SPEAKER_00]: earnings is really the overall highlight again.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're kind of in a desert of big macro data the market today processing another round of big tech earnings Amazon the big gainer on a WS acceleration as well as capacity additions and these in amount of margin expansion.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That means

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[SPEAKER_00]: During the Q3 earnings season, results are still a bit better than forecast the blended year over year S&P 500 earnings growth, about 10.7%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: At the same time, 83% of companies are reporting a beat that is better than the 1.5 and 10 year averages.

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[SPEAKER_00]: To get some fedspeaks, some hawkish, FOMC commentary.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But, really not a lot of surprises there, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: It was from speakers who largely had consistently hawkish positions.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's also heightened government shutdown frustration, as well as geopolitical headlines.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But the market's still saying, yeah, that's a little bit more noise than news for us.

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[SPEAKER_00]: No, thank you.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As I mentioned, right, we're still in this desert of economic data, so we've got to hobble together various pieces of information to try and find numbers, sell side notes, put initial claims for the week ending 25th of October at 219,000 below the prior weeks 231,000 October Chicago PMI came in above consensus at 43.8, helped by solid new orders.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And on trade, President made offhand comments on Air Force 1 that there are no plants

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[SPEAKER_00]: with Canada.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Still not moving on the government shutdown, but a federal judge today ordered the administration to dip into contingency funds when snap the snap food aid program runs out of money in November first.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're gonna head in next week, pretty busy period.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Even before next week starts, we got an OPEC plus meeting this weekend.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Another production hike expected.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have ISM manufacturing on Monday,

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[SPEAKER_00]: ISM Services and ADP payrolls on Wednesday, so is the final university of Michigan Consumer sentiment and inflation and expectations report, which will cap off the week on Friday?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Alright, let's get to a question from the comment section of the Invest talk YouTube channel.

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[SPEAKER_00]: For now, as we revamp our YouTube channel, we've kind of put a pause a little bit on breaking down the show into various segments.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But it doesn't mean we don't have good content over there, some evergreen content, some lessons, the invest.classroom series.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And while you're over there, if you got a question, you can leave it on any of the comment sections of any of our videos, and we'll tackle that as soon as we can.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This one coming in from RichP, it's about a Fed rate cut, says the Fed is decided to cut interest rates.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What does it mean for investors?

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[SPEAKER_00]: What sectors benefit from a low interest rate environment in the backdrop of AI?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, lower rates means, generally, easier money and higher valuations, cuts reduce borrowing costs.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They support earnings multiples.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They ease a bunch of financing stress.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They often spark equity upside as liquidity rises.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now tech,

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[SPEAKER_00]: as well as some other sectors, communication services, consumer discretionary industrials, they tend to benefit as credit flows and demand starts to rebound.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Lower capital costs may also feel aacapics, think about all the money that has been spent on building data centers, chip manufacturers, power infrastructure.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It could boost semi-conductors, cloud platforms.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It could power utilities that are tied to AI build-outs.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And as yield seekers live in a world of lower rates, well then they start to turn to bonds to dividend stocks, to reach to utilities.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Some of those bigger, more established dividend paying infrastructure names.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And those are just some of the effects.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But you have to keep in mind that the rate cut was expected.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It is, and does a very good job of pricing things in very quickly.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Generally what you're going to see in asset price movements, isn't going to be, okay, Fed cut today, things are great, markets up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be what happened today versus what we expected and everybody expected.

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[SPEAKER_00]: A Fed rate cut.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so, when you think about these things, as with corporate earnings, right, when a company reports earnings, yeah, you care about how much money they made last year, but what is the thing that most people are paying attention to that's forward guidance?

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's the same thing here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So when the Fed cuts rates, well, the market really is interested in, is their projection of the path moving forward, and what they have to say.

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[SPEAKER_00]: about what that path might be.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's briefly review the KPP premium newsletter and newest one will be distributed tomorrow.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The KPP insect section, we discussed the fed path moving forward, very appropriate, given that last question.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The stock idea section, we mentioned a major global computer chip manufacturer, and a company that develops and manufactures personal protective equipment for workers in hazardous environments.

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[SPEAKER_00]: In the portfolio management section, we touched on understanding goals, proper diversification, and having a disciplined strategy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you're interested in learning more, visit us at investtalk.com and hit subscribe.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The newsletter will come to your inbox every Saturday morning.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We still have a lot of time left to go on this show.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Before I get a chance to see the Dodgers are going to win tonight or break my heart yet again,

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[SPEAKER_00]: We got to main focus point.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We got plenty of talking points, and most importantly, we got a lot of questions queued up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully, one of you will pick up that phone down 88899 chart get to me live on air before we get to the weekend.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is in Vestock, I'm Lou Guerrero ready to take your calls at 88899 chart.

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[SPEAKER_10]: I would like to know more about the company, which I've been tracking for some time.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Luke Guerrero is here and ready to tackle your questions.

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[SPEAKER_10]: And I was just wondering, are there any investment accounts with different banks that you would recommend something that may offer a good resources?

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[SPEAKER_04]: Don't forget to call, in Best Talk, 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_05]: As you heard about Invest Talk innovators, it's available now free on the Invest Talk YouTube channel, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, Interview Company Leaders, Founders and Visionaries.

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[SPEAKER_05]: So head over to the Invest Talk YouTube channel and look for Invest Talk innovators.

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[SPEAKER_00]: When markets sore, retirees using the guardrails rule can start to loosen their purse strings.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And when markets slide, they start to pull back.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, the question is, should you be thinking more about this guardrails rule?

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[SPEAKER_00]: The goal of your life, rule, rather than the traditional guideline of 4%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This rule is a dynamic spending strategy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It offers a lot more flexibility compared to that rigid for a percent with draw rule that adjusts only for inflation.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's probably the most ideal for retirees who want a bit of confidence, but also some flexibility so that you can adapt your spending to protect that long-term security.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now this concept,

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[SPEAKER_00]: was created by two guys, Jonathan Gaiden and William Klinger and ties annual withdrawals to investment performance, meaning your lifestyle will attract the market reality.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Think of it as kind of like a feedback system.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You spend more when you're portfolio grows and you spend less when it shrinks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now a typical plan sets, quote unquote, guardrails, 20% above and below the target with draw rates.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Say, cutting spending at 6% or increasing it at 4% if your base rate is 5.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now where it's best for retirees who have a bit of discretionary spending, travel leisure and luxuries, who can trim extras when the market turns south.

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[SPEAKER_00]: One of the ways you can take a look at the success of not just this strategy, the potential success of this strategy, but the success of any financial plan, it's something we do for our clients.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So by using these things called Monte Carlo simulations.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What those do is, well let's say, okay, here is something that may happen, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is what we're doing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have a financial plan.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now there's a bunch of stuff that's going to affect my financial plan, interest drinks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: historical market returns if those empirical returns of asset classes continue.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Social Security, when do I take it?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Many, many different variables.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, in these money Carlos simulations, you're doing a bunch of randomized trials where you're changing few and most of the time only one variable each time and giving yourself a probability distribution.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a way to estimate the success rate of a portfolio so that you can trigger adjustments when probabilities move outside of what is determined to be the safe zone.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This isn't a set it and forget its strategy, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: It is dynamic.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But that means that annual recalibration is also key.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You don't want to react monthly.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Short-term swings, especially in financial markets, can cause not just over corrections.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you cut back when you don't need to, or you go, oh, I'm up a lot today.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm up a lot this week.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go buy a Lamborghini.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I can also lead to a lot of stress.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But he's the catch right, 4% is easy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This type of strategy requires not only discipline,

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[SPEAKER_00]: but also a lot of active monitoring.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Many retirees, well, they prefer steady, predictable instead of having to do this constant back and forth instead of having to do this constant tweaking.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Those who are managing portfolios alone, right, without a professional while trying to enjoy their lives well, they risk a bunch of errors, maybe they cut too late, maybe they ignore warnings, maybe they overreact.

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[SPEAKER_00]: All of which can lead to adverse outcomes, all of which can erode long-term capital.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, the guardrails rule is a guide.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not gospel.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's meant to balance living well today with lasting security.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And if you think you can deal with a discipline, the act of monitoring, it might be right for you.

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[SPEAKER_00]: On Fridays, we generally make time to fit in a quick rundown of key benchmark numbers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So let me hit you with that list right now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: To your treasure yield is that 3.602% today for perspective, last week that number was a 3.484, 200 weeks ago it was 0.64.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The 10 year, 4.097 today last week that number was 4.003 and 198 weeks ago that was 1.762.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Gold 39 is 77 per ounce, that is a $136 decrease compared to the last week.

20:04.990 --> 20:08.997
[SPEAKER_00]: 13 weeks ago, that number was 3348 and 192 weeks ago, that number was 1806.

20:09.177 --> 20:15.448
[SPEAKER_00]: Silver 48 is 78 per ounce, 18 cents more compared to the last week.

20:16.550 --> 20:21.278
[SPEAKER_00]: 90 weeks back, that number was 2280, 184 weeks ago, Silver was 2394.

20:22.962 --> 20:29.078
[SPEAKER_00]: Oil was selling for $60, 93 cents per barrel, a 57 cent increase compared to the last week.

20:30.081 --> 20:38.322
[SPEAKER_00]: 58 weeks ago, then it was 67, 79, 100 weeks back, the number was 74, 30, and 199 weeks ago, and was 66, 62.

20:39.382 --> 20:44.008
[SPEAKER_00]: The National average for a gallon of regular gasoline is three dollars and four cents.

20:44.408 --> 20:47.613
[SPEAKER_00]: A two cent decrease compared with one week ago.

20:47.633 --> 20:54.461
[SPEAKER_00]: 126 weeks ago that number was $33.56, 174 weeks back.

20:54.501 --> 21:00.529
[SPEAKER_00]: That number was $4.25 and looking back, 194 weeks a gallon of regular gas cost $357.

21:01.302 --> 21:10.659
[SPEAKER_00]: California was averaging 462 per gallon a three-cent increase compared to last week, 104 weeks ago then it was 532 and 180 weeks back then it was 587.

21:10.679 --> 21:18.573
[SPEAKER_00]: For comparison in Michigan, gas is averaging 298 per gallon, that is $1.64 less in gas and California.

21:19.635 --> 21:24.103
[SPEAKER_00]: On the next invest stock, we'll look into this topic emergency savings, more than just a cushion.

21:24.472 --> 21:33.038
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll attract a little advice on how much to save for unexpected life events, where to keep the money in why it matters, far beyond civil budget.

21:33.059 --> 21:37.452
[SPEAKER_00]: That's Monday, but for now, I'm glad we're going to need to take your calls at 80-90-99 chart.

21:47.405 --> 21:55.455
[SPEAKER_05]: The root kid is here or almost here, but you've got finance and investment questions, so step up and call in.

21:55.515 --> 21:59.360
[SPEAKER_05]: Invest talk, 888 99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Hi, Invest talk.

22:00.942 --> 22:04.406
[SPEAKER_03]: I was coming in with a question on the stock call column.

22:05.007 --> 22:12.917
[SPEAKER_03]: The symbol is QCOM, looking to get in and what would be a good entry point.

22:13.357 --> 22:15.420
[SPEAKER_03]: I want to see what your thoughts are overall.

22:15.856 --> 22:18.781
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you, and we'll be listening to the answer on your show.

22:18.801 --> 22:25.932
[SPEAKER_00]: Qualcomm, the QCOM, is a major player in the mobile and wireless semiconductor component space.

22:26.833 --> 22:31.681
[SPEAKER_00]: A development commercialized, this foundational wireless and compute technology is like mobile connectivity.

22:32.522 --> 22:35.687
[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, through mobile connectivity and automotive.

22:35.667 --> 22:41.139
[SPEAKER_00]: Across their three major segments, so chips, licensing, and strategic initiative.

22:41.159 --> 22:54.148
[SPEAKER_00]: They hold a pretty big patent portfolio for 4 and 5G and more, and they still chips for smartphones, for cars, and for data centers, and AI infrastructure.

22:54.601 --> 23:06.974
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm going to get a year, up 17.76% up 11.4% in the past 52, we accept 23.26% in the past three months.

23:07.014 --> 23:11.299
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a pretty big company, $198 billion market cap company.

23:12.100 --> 23:16.544
[SPEAKER_00]: Now in late October, they announced two new AI accelerated chips.

23:17.365 --> 23:18.526
[SPEAKER_00]: And those are for data centers, right?

23:18.546 --> 23:23.832
[SPEAKER_00]: They drove an 11% one day jump in the stock.

23:24.436 --> 23:32.185
[SPEAKER_00]: It's also been acquiring some names, some high speed, component names, and then a pretty good job repositioning itself as the, a lot of the market is.

23:33.127 --> 23:35.751
[SPEAKER_00]: really focused on AI buildouts.

23:35.851 --> 23:45.587
[SPEAKER_00]: And so it really offers some good secular exposure to these growth themes, as well as being accredited in its acquisitions.

23:45.668 --> 23:47.170
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, there's a risk, right?

23:47.190 --> 23:51.337
[SPEAKER_00]: There is some execution risk transitioning your business is pretty ambitious.

23:51.838 --> 23:54.602
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of competitive pressure out there.

23:55.023 --> 23:55.864
[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of demand.

23:56.305 --> 23:58.088
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the evaluation is,

23:58.068 --> 23:59.230
[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty reasonable, right?

23:59.250 --> 24:16.674
[SPEAKER_00]: 14.4 times price to Ford looking earning $7.1 times price to look at the book value, 15.4 times price to cash for, you know, we own Qualcomm in a couple of our strategies actually because we think it is and has been a major player across the board with great exposure.

24:17.334 --> 24:18.897
[SPEAKER_00]: So we hold it, we're gonna continue to hold it.

24:19.718 --> 24:22.782
[SPEAKER_00]: That is a Qualcomm incorporated to your QC OM.

24:23.823 --> 24:27.248
[SPEAKER_00]: It's keeping things rolling and play two and a row from A to D 99 chart.

24:27.835 --> 24:49.573
[SPEAKER_08]: I was just reaching out to see if I could get your thoughts and opinions on the three bucket strategy and retirement, what you think about it and how it relates to market downturns and sequence of return risk and to see if it's a good strategy when you are approaching that time in your life.

24:50.174 --> 24:51.396
[SPEAKER_08]: I'll be listening, thanks.

24:52.034 --> 24:59.108
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the three bucket strategy, three bucket retirement strategy is a way to, well, it's a way to smooth withdrawals, right?

24:59.128 --> 25:02.735
[SPEAKER_00]: So you take your assets and you segregate them into three different buckets.

25:02.815 --> 25:04.278
[SPEAKER_00]: What is your short term needs, right?

25:04.298 --> 25:07.765
[SPEAKER_00]: Your cash, your money market, your tea bills, your short term bonds.

25:07.745 --> 25:09.529
[SPEAKER_00]: then I was fun to your living expenses.

25:09.809 --> 25:13.297
[SPEAKER_00]: It helps you avoid selling your investments during your downturn.

25:13.317 --> 25:23.458
[SPEAKER_00]: Second bucket is your medium term income, your intermediate bonds, your dividend stocks, your CDs, and it's designed to replenish bucket one and provide stability as well as regular income.

25:23.438 --> 25:29.488
[SPEAKER_00]: Now there's bucket-threat, your long-term growth, 10 years plus, your equities, your reeds, your alternatives.

25:30.249 --> 25:35.738
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a big growth engine to help you outpace inflation and a refill of buckets one and two over time.

25:35.758 --> 25:37.821
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, like I said, this helps us smooth withdrawals.

25:38.462 --> 25:41.667
[SPEAKER_00]: It helps to reduce a lot of sequencing risk.

25:41.647 --> 25:46.715
[SPEAKER_00]: and it helps to give some psychological comfort it matches your investment horizons to your spending.

25:47.356 --> 25:53.166
[SPEAKER_00]: Needs, I think this is a great way to go about constructing your financial life.

25:53.266 --> 25:55.229
[SPEAKER_00]: It is one of many tools that can be very helpful.

25:55.750 --> 25:58.474
[SPEAKER_00]: And certainly, for a lot of people, I would recommend.

25:59.551 --> 26:00.793
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the call.

26:00.813 --> 26:02.295
[SPEAKER_00]: Now speaking of these buckets, right?

26:02.315 --> 26:08.865
[SPEAKER_00]: We talk about what our long-term growth bucket is in corporate, it's right, equities, okay?

26:08.885 --> 26:13.032
[SPEAKER_00]: And because of how well they've done, the acronym Tina is back.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There is no alternative.

26:16.036 --> 26:18.741
[SPEAKER_00]: Stocks are gaining a dominant position.

26:18.761 --> 26:25.491
[SPEAKER_00]: There's dominant global returns, and investors are starting to think, well, do I really need any bonds at all?

26:26.602 --> 26:36.281
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the latest push for all equity investing comes from research from the university Missouri, Emory, and the University of Arizona.

26:36.681 --> 26:46.500
[SPEAKER_00]: Their centuries plus data set looks at 39 countries up to 134 years of returns and finds the bonds historically across the board.

26:46.919 --> 26:51.944
[SPEAKER_00]: offer pretty poor diversification and a weak inflation adjusted returns.

26:52.824 --> 27:04.135
[SPEAKER_00]: Across the stable bonds are turned just 95 basis points after inflation versus 7.74% for US stocks and 7.303% for international stocks.

27:04.155 --> 27:14.985
[SPEAKER_00]: So the conclusion is even retirees, not just young savers, would have fared better with 100% equities, split roughly, 1.30s and 2.30s.

27:14.965 --> 27:24.060
[SPEAKER_00]: international, and that sounds great, but even as the author's admit, it's incredibly risky and history is not a guarantee of future outcomes.

27:24.601 --> 27:26.224
[SPEAKER_00]: US valuations underline this risk.

27:26.264 --> 27:30.271
[SPEAKER_00]: The S&B 500 is cyclically adjusted PD, so it's at 40.5 times.

27:30.792 --> 27:34.318
[SPEAKER_00]: It's highest-sensory.com peak in the year 2000.

27:34.618 --> 27:38.104
[SPEAKER_00]: Over long horizons, stocks do usually win, but

27:38.084 --> 27:51.985
[SPEAKER_00]: In global markets in 1841, all equity portfolios lost to inflation at 12% of the time, even in the U.S. Stock Center performed bonds in roughly 25% of 30 year periods, mostly in the 19th century.

27:52.465 --> 27:54.568
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, sequencing risk of returns, right?

27:54.609 --> 27:57.753
[SPEAKER_00]: Two retirees each start with $1 million in the S&P 500.

27:58.514 --> 28:04.123
[SPEAKER_00]: One in 1999 ends with $890,000 in the other in 2002, ends with 4 million.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is sequencing risk.

28:06.029 --> 28:14.161
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's to say that you don't really know what it's going to be like when you need to start drawing down on those assets.

28:14.201 --> 28:23.255
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the takeaway is yes, if you look at from an odds perspective, equities do offer the best odds, but luck and timing matter as much as discipline.

28:24.016 --> 28:34.652
[SPEAKER_00]: And so having bonds in your portfolio, having tips, having a way to offer stability to dampen volatility to manage a risk is still a critical component.

28:34.632 --> 28:44.929
[SPEAKER_00]: When the market's doing well, Tina, there is no alternative, sounds like a great idea, but betting your future on it means having the patience of a tortoise and also the emotions of a step.

28:45.470 --> 28:51.760
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Friday, before you begin your trick or treat antics, let's drop in another fresh listener question now.

28:52.522 --> 28:56.228
[SPEAKER_11]: Hey, Justin Erle is a character.

28:56.969 --> 28:58.031
[SPEAKER_11]: He's calling.

28:58.051 --> 29:00.555
[SPEAKER_11]: I got a couple

29:00.839 --> 29:04.885
[SPEAKER_11]: I've held all of that stock for a little over a year now, and I made it just been on a tear.

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[SPEAKER_11]: Here recently, so I don't know why I don't see any reason why, feeling like it's already been overvalued.

29:12.337 --> 29:18.226
[SPEAKER_11]: So, I pretty much just went ahead and liquidated my whole position, assuming that it's way overbought.

29:18.247 --> 29:28.062
[SPEAKER_11]: And then the other day, you talked about leverage TTS, and I've had one that I've also

29:28.615 --> 29:30.277
[SPEAKER_11]: And I just want to know your thoughts on that.

29:30.337 --> 29:33.020
[SPEAKER_11]: I mean, it's done really great for me.

29:33.120 --> 29:39.386
[SPEAKER_11]: So if this is something that you think is a terrible decision to meet a hold on to, then I'll just like your input on that.

29:39.606 --> 29:40.307
[SPEAKER_11]: Thank you so much.

29:40.507 --> 29:41.809
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's take a look at the same question, right?

29:41.909 --> 29:45.533
[SPEAKER_00]: What are the dangers of leverage DTFs?

29:46.754 --> 29:55.483
[SPEAKER_00]: And so a leverage DTF is when you have multiples of exposure to the daily return of some underlying asset.

29:56.189 --> 30:00.521
[SPEAKER_00]: It could be a leverage GTF that looks at the SP500, right?

30:00.782 --> 30:11.211
[SPEAKER_00]: In case of this one, which is XSPXL, it is the direction daily S&P500, three X leverage GTF.

30:12.018 --> 30:15.363
[SPEAKER_00]: or it could be a single stock ETF that has leverage.

30:15.884 --> 30:18.468
[SPEAKER_00]: And so with leverage ETFs, there is daily resetting.

30:18.508 --> 30:28.643
[SPEAKER_00]: It means that returns can diverge pretty sharply from the index over time, especially in Voldemort because you can lose money even if the index ends up flat too slightly higher.

30:29.004 --> 30:33.290
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a volatility magnifier leverage multiplies, both gains and losses.

30:33.450 --> 30:35.173
[SPEAKER_00]: Sharp moves against you,

30:35.153 --> 30:38.998
[SPEAKER_00]: can quickly erode capital and they can trigger forced sell it.

30:39.158 --> 30:41.902
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are higher costs, fees, swap costs, financing rates.

30:42.463 --> 30:43.224
[SPEAKER_00]: They need to perform it.

30:43.284 --> 30:48.431
[SPEAKER_00]: So long holding periods typically under perform the intended leverage target.

30:48.812 --> 30:50.834
[SPEAKER_00]: These are designed for short term trading.

30:51.095 --> 30:53.979
[SPEAKER_00]: You should not use them as a buy hold vehicle.

30:54.019 --> 31:00.047
[SPEAKER_00]: I can lead to pretty large unintended losses versus owning regular ETFs.

31:00.027 --> 31:01.749
[SPEAKER_00]: or futures themselves.

31:01.809 --> 31:17.707
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that the risk you have and the cost you pay is too great and that's not really exemplified in times when the market is volatility and has generally been marching upward for well over a year.

31:18.107 --> 31:21.151
[SPEAKER_00]: The we don't prepare for the good times we prepare for the bad times.

31:21.171 --> 31:26.997
[SPEAKER_00]: So in spite of the returns you've seen, there are still great risks to owning

31:27.938 --> 31:28.519
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the call.

31:29.059 --> 31:30.100
[SPEAKER_00]: Should we fit in another question?

31:30.921 --> 31:32.282
[SPEAKER_00]: We got plenty of time.

31:32.302 --> 31:35.946
[SPEAKER_07]: Hello, I'm Beth thought the same way it's a Steven out of Charleston, South Carolina.

31:36.246 --> 31:39.270
[SPEAKER_07]: I had a question about ticker symbol W.I.

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[SPEAKER_07]: and M. Windmark.

31:41.612 --> 31:42.933
[SPEAKER_07]: I've had my eye on it.

31:43.534 --> 31:48.679
[SPEAKER_07]: I wanted to jump into it earlier and I put a little bit of my taxable account into it not much.

31:48.699 --> 31:51.062
[SPEAKER_07]: Just mostly to keep an eye on it and setting.

31:51.082 --> 31:54.385
[SPEAKER_07]: Take up some change on the path of watching it grow.

31:54.652 --> 31:57.556
[SPEAKER_07]: Let me know what your thoughts on this company looks attractive.

31:57.736 --> 31:59.198
[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks y'all, appreciate everything you do.

32:00.520 --> 32:08.111
[SPEAKER_00]: The ticker is W-I-N-A, and the name of the company is Windmark.

32:08.131 --> 32:14.720
[SPEAKER_00]: This small cap 1.454 billion dollar market cap company, here to date up 2.57%.

32:16.303 --> 32:20.068
[SPEAKER_00]: A big point, 1.2% over the past 52 weeks.

32:21.010 --> 32:29.720
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, this company franchises retail store concepts that buy sell and trade gently used merchandise, right?

32:30.583 --> 32:32.269
[SPEAKER_00]: Across various.

32:33.143 --> 32:37.794
[SPEAKER_00]: various niches from teens to children's items and musical instruments.

32:38.696 --> 32:41.944
[SPEAKER_00]: So play those closet once upon a child played against sports.

32:42.786 --> 32:50.385
[SPEAKER_00]: But also operates in a middle market equipment leasing business called the windmark capital but that seems to be a bit smaller portion of its business.

32:50.405 --> 32:51.287
[SPEAKER_00]: Now,

32:51.267 --> 32:53.691
[SPEAKER_00]: revenue solid but really not growing much.

32:53.991 --> 32:59.480
[SPEAKER_00]: Only up 2.1% on an annualized basis over the past five years net income.

32:59.921 --> 33:13.984
[SPEAKER_00]: Growing about double that 4.4% pretty solid their margins pretty impressive sitting in close to 60% EBITDA margin about 49% net margin all very very solid.

33:13.964 --> 33:22.317
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's really expensive, 32 times price to forward looking earnings, 32 times price to cash flow, 17 times price to sales.

33:23.679 --> 33:28.167
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the retail, a retail sector, another retail sector, maybe a retail as well.

33:28.187 --> 33:32.373
[SPEAKER_00]: But the retail retail sector, it's a bit of a circular economy, right?

33:32.393 --> 33:39.685
[SPEAKER_00]: Consumer interest and secondhand goods gives win-mark an interesting,

33:40.323 --> 34:09.874
[SPEAKER_00]: And they paid a solid 50 basis point to 1% dividend yield over a long period of time, but I think my biggest issue here is having to do with just lack of growth, lack of growth over a long period of time at higher valuations tends to put you at outside risk of having poor portfolio returns.

34:10.563 --> 34:11.444
[SPEAKER_00]: What else we're gonna talk about?

34:11.464 --> 34:15.207
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, home sales, they're falling.

34:15.688 --> 34:18.050
[SPEAKER_00]: They're falling apart, the highest rate in years.

34:18.650 --> 34:27.779
[SPEAKER_00]: Buyers are anxious, severing sellers are starting to clash with these buyers in a housing market stuck between economic uncertainty and higher prices.

34:27.839 --> 34:31.262
[SPEAKER_00]: In September, roughly 15% of purchase agreements were canceled.

34:31.282 --> 34:36.106
[SPEAKER_00]: 15% up from 13.6% just one year ago.

34:36.126 --> 34:40.350
[SPEAKER_00]: And that trend has been climbing steadily

34:41.478 --> 34:53.815
[SPEAKER_00]: Now this surge reflects both by your jitters over job security and the financial strain of closing costs, taxes and insurance that exceed initial expectations.

34:53.835 --> 35:03.688
[SPEAKER_00]: Buyers like Trish to Costa of Nashville were after saving for five years and winning a 400,000 offer, she was laid off just before closing and had to walk away from the deal.

35:03.955 --> 35:12.326
[SPEAKER_00]: And those types of buyers, well, they have already lost money, they can't recoup on inspections on appraisals, even if they were covered, they're deposit, they don't get that money back.

35:13.047 --> 35:22.740
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of these things are flashpoint, repair issue surface, sellers resist big price cuts, and buyers now feel empowered to walk away rather than compromise.

35:23.615 --> 35:37.569
[SPEAKER_00]: In one case, a $485,000 Florida Home Deal collapse from the buyer demanded a $50,000 cut after 20,000 in need to repair as a standoff, that reflects a bit of the fragile negotiations of today's sellers meanwhile.

35:37.729 --> 35:39.450
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, they're in no rush to lower prices.

35:40.391 --> 35:53.284
[SPEAKER_00]: Many are still holding those ultra low mortgage rates instead they're delisting these homes at record rates up 52% year over year per retailer.com.

35:54.142 --> 35:59.190
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the one in Jacksonville shows near the 18% of deals cancel long islands, fewer than 5%.

35:59.491 --> 36:06.402
[SPEAKER_00]: One way to get ahead of this, because of the costs, right, associated with bailing, pre-inspection reports.

36:07.003 --> 36:08.506
[SPEAKER_00]: But those costs are around $1,200.

36:09.788 --> 36:18.462
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably, good amount of insurance, though, to protect against the $20,000 that you might have to pay if you don't see the issues.

36:18.948 --> 36:34.797
[SPEAKER_00]: One thing sellers are doing, they're securing backup offers, trying to keep these deals alive and pressure primary buyers to close, but overall, the US housing market is starting to show some uneasy signs of thawing, with a 1.5% uptake in September sales.

36:35.148 --> 36:41.478
[SPEAKER_00]: In spite of that, the widespread hesitancy on both sides suggests confidence remains pretty fragile.

36:41.918 --> 36:48.248
[SPEAKER_00]: This investock, I'm Legreir, we have one goal here to help you achieve your financial freedom.

36:48.268 --> 36:54.237
[SPEAKER_00]: Our work continues after this break, our final break, so get your questions in now, at 888-99 chart.

36:58.638 --> 37:01.044
[SPEAKER_04]: Got a question for Justin or Luke?

37:01.064 --> 37:02.929
[SPEAKER_04]: You're the best person to ask it.

37:03.130 --> 37:04.894
[SPEAKER_02]: I wanted to pick your ring about Apple.

37:05.195 --> 37:06.759
[SPEAKER_02]: What did you think about their earnings call?

37:07.321 --> 37:08.845
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a good time to add to my position.

37:09.025 --> 37:15.482
[SPEAKER_04]: Call in Vestock, 888-99 chart.

37:20.609 --> 37:25.856
[SPEAKER_05]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

37:26.437 --> 37:31.643
[SPEAKER_05]: How they get there and when they get there, that depends on many factors.

37:32.204 --> 37:37.691
[SPEAKER_05]: The more you learn about how the market works, the better your chances for success.

37:38.412 --> 37:41.056
[SPEAKER_05]: So don't forget to call, invest talk.

37:41.637 --> 37:44.220
[SPEAKER_05]: 888-99 chart.

37:44.707 --> 38:10.528
[SPEAKER_09]: I'd love to hear any thoughts and insight you have on the company real tinto group that's ticker symbol r i o so it means that you have on the company would be greatly appreciated specifically if you could talk a little bit about the dividend you guys do a great job talking about the history of the dividend if it's been consistent and then based on the financials if it's likely to continue in the future appreciate your thoughts on that.

38:10.812 --> 38:12.594
[SPEAKER_09]: And of course, thank you very much for the show.

38:12.855 --> 38:15.438
[SPEAKER_09]: If you're doing a show five days a week, I imagine that's a lot of work.

38:15.458 --> 38:16.599
[SPEAKER_09]: So thank you very much for that.

38:16.880 --> 38:20.484
[SPEAKER_09]: As a longtime listener, you give me the confidence to keep investing.

38:20.524 --> 38:22.447
[SPEAKER_09]: I'll listen for the next show.

38:22.747 --> 38:23.068
[SPEAKER_09]: Thank you.

38:23.408 --> 38:24.850
[SPEAKER_00]: Very kind words.

38:24.870 --> 38:28.615
[SPEAKER_00]: It's diving to Rio Tinto, PLC.

38:28.635 --> 38:32.179
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a global mining and materials behemoth.

38:32.159 --> 38:40.988
[SPEAKER_00]: the operate in 35 different countries and they produce iron ore aluminum copper lithium and other critical minerals.

38:41.660 --> 38:49.752
[SPEAKER_00]: Over the past year, about 10.56% up 21.99% year to date up 20% over the past three months.

38:50.293 --> 38:53.337
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, very, very, very big company.

38:53.357 --> 38:56.902
[SPEAKER_00]: And our $23 billion market cap company.

38:57.183 --> 38:58.565
[SPEAKER_00]: So what's been driving its price?

38:58.625 --> 39:00.648
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, a bit of a strategic shift.

39:00.688 --> 39:10.502
[SPEAKER_00]: They've been emphasizing those energy transition critical minerals, copper lithium, while still maintaining their iron or large scale base.

39:10.752 --> 39:13.376
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's been a bit of corporate restructuring as well.

39:15.019 --> 39:21.710
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, their copper production was about 9% year over year as of Q3 2025.

39:23.272 --> 39:25.596
[SPEAKER_00]: But it doesn't mean that always good here, right?

39:25.616 --> 39:34.330
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a bit of risk within this business, especially within their Australian segment, their Australian aluminum.

39:35.980 --> 39:43.007
[SPEAKER_00]: One of their minds may be forced to shut down post 20, 28, due to power supply cost issues.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But as with any minor, you're going to get effectively leveraged exposure to the global commodity cycle.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to get leverage exposure to whatever the product is that they're selling a downturn in iron or a downturn in copper prices or a slowdown in the global economy that would then lead to lower demand.

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[SPEAKER_00]: For example, Rio's underlying earnings fell about 7.6% in 2024, due to that weaker iron ore demand.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You also have those regulatory risks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of these mining companies have operations in countries that have like standards, may cause mine issues, permitting delays, cost inflation, environmental delays,

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[SPEAKER_00]: And just the cost alone and the time to get a lot of these products on board.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, you mentioned specifically what they're dividend.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, their pay ratio is 56, so pretty low.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Their dividend yield is 5.2%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Right now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But their dividend was cut in 2024 amidst those weaker conditions.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so their dividend like any dividend is not going to be set in stone.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As I always say with these miners, if you want to get leverage exposure to these commodities, this is a very solid way to do it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is a large mining company, pretty solid fundamentals.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Good at commodity extraction, good at scale.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so if you're bullish on global infrastructure, if you're bullish on metal demand, if you're bullish on decarbidization, well, then Rio to Guerrero could be a pretty meaningful company to add to your portfolio.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Just keep in mind the risks, because certainly for mining companies, there are many.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if you haven't already, head over to ourinvesttalk.com and check out our newest invest talk, wealth webinar.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's all about artificial intelligence.

41:44.789 --> 41:49.914
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a great transition from this mining company, given how much copper is going to be needed.

41:49.934 --> 41:54.959
[SPEAKER_00]: Lithium is going to be needed to power all of these technologies.

41:55.800 --> 42:00.845
[SPEAKER_00]: We dive into not just the top line names, but the industrial, the energy names, the picks and shovels.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's all over on our invest talk, YouTube, just search Invest Talk with two teas.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that does it for us today.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Luke Guerrero, that is another episode of Invest Talk.

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