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[SPEAKER_05]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lou Guerrero and today is a Friday, November 7th, 2025.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Congratulations, we made it to yet another weekend, and what an interesting week in markets, it has been.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're moving quickly through the fourth quarter, the holidays right around the corner.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thanksgiving my personal favorite holiday.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But in spite of that, we cannot lose focus and this week was a great example of why that is the case.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so, here at Invest Talk, we see our objective, our goal for each podcast, each radio program, each video we put out on YouTube is to help you become a better and more informed investor.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We want to help you understand all of these things, market dynamics.

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[SPEAKER_01]: and how the news and what is happening outside affects your life.

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[SPEAKER_01]: To that end, we have a mixture of educational and actual material that go over today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, your contributions and the form of questions and comments are always the most important part of the Invest talk mission.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So to that end, and just a bit, we're gonna go over today's market performance and run down those show topics, but let's tackle this color question now.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Well, my question is about Kimberly Clark to your single KMB.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I had them on my watch list.

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[SPEAKER_06]: They recently dropped down to about $120 a share, so I bought a partial position.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Then the news broke about their new acquisition, smartkitplayrelage.like.

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[SPEAKER_06]: So I was just wondering what you think about the acquisition and moving forward for this company.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Kimberly Clark, ticker KMB, is a global consumer goods company.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What they do is they manufacture and market personal and household products.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's a pretty well-known bland brands, Huggies, Kleenex, Kotex, Scott Cottonnell.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's just a few of their well-known names.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now the company's going under, they're undergoing a bit of a strategic portfolio transformation.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're selling or spinning off parts of their tissue business internationally.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're focusing more on their high margin personal care segments.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And that's really influenced both investors sentiment and the pricing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's down about 20.75% year to date down 21.47%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Over the past 52 weeks down 24.07% over the past three months.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And what you've seen coming out of the pandemic from 2022 to 2024 is that revenue has really just slowed in terms of growth.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Only grown from 20, or actually it's fallen from 28.1 billion down to 20.05 billion projected to fall a bit into this next year as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But again, they're spitting off some of their businesses.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Same time net income has grown a little bit but pretty slowly over the past five years only 3.4% on an annualized basis.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And while this is all happening, it is headed towards the lower end of its five year relative valuation ranges.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And in spite of those moves, well, from an analyst perspective.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Still isn't a buy, still isn't an overweight, has been classified as a hold in the median analyst for quite some time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the reason why is because you would do have those margin challenges.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You do have EBITDA margin, which has been kind of stable over time, falling into 2021 through 2023.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You do have, like I said, knit income growth, being all too slow,

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[SPEAKER_01]: And historically, I mean, this has been a pretty classic consumer staples play products that people use regularly, which should give it a degree of stability in an uncertain macro environment, but you haven't really seen that for this name.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's underperformants industry by about 6%

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[SPEAKER_01]: This year, underperformed, really perennially, the S&P 500 with the exception of 2022, so, you know, maybe the market didn't like the acquisition that was up 3.06% today, but this is a company that is in a restructuring phase.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A company whose route of strength has been pretty poor since 2020, and so I'm not really seeing anything that is getting me excited.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not seeing anything that is pointing towards some sort of trend reversal here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so although it's down, although it's near those low ranges, just because it looks cheap, doesn't mean it can't soon become cheaper.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd have to pass on Kimberly-Clark Corporation, Ticker KMB.

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[SPEAKER_01]: On this Friday, we got a lot, a lot, a lot to talk about, including my main focus point, which concerns this topic, critical minerals, critical moment.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Rare Earth Stalks set to surge.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We got a deep dive for you into how the global scramble for rare Earth and battery metals is igniting the stock boom and what investors such as yourself need to know.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Also, a couple more stories, including one on policy uncertainty and really risk globally and how that tops concerns in the latest Fed survey, then we have another story again on critical minerals, the U.S. adding silver and copper to that minerals list, and should we have time at the end of the show, a chip shortage induced by trade restrictions just lifted how that could start to help auto suppliers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: As always, we've got plenty of questions to answer as well, including some from our voice bank, one on 457 retirement plans and another on a draft King's Inc.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll have some questions that came in from the comment section of the investor on YouTube channel.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, I welcome and hope for your finance and investment questions now, or any time throughout the show.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There gets probably safe to say that you will be making several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Before you do, I recommend that you look at our new Comprehensive 2025 Q4 economic and market outlook report.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's free, it's a free read, and it's posted now at Invest Talk.com.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Check it out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Moving to new break, my phone lines are open, 80-899 chart.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Serious investors are certain to have, finance, and investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_04]: What do you think is a good price?

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[SPEAKER_04]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I was wondering, from your standpoint, if they're at downside, in buying fractional shares versus whole shares.

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[SPEAKER_04]: and 24-7 rain or shine, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

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[SPEAKER_03]: But technically, right now, I like it, I like the momentum, but what's going to don't like those fundamentals?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, while gold is hitting these record highs, it's driven by the safe haven demand by central bank buying across the board.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Your participation makes an invest talk better.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm calling to ask about core and main.

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[SPEAKER_04]: This is Josh and North Carolina.

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[SPEAKER_03]: This is Marlow from George City area.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Let's take a live call, Sam from San Jose.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So don't forget to call, Invest talk.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Great advice.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_04]: 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_04]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Now the torch has been passed, and a new generation of hosts is on the job.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call in Vestock.

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[SPEAKER_04]: 888-99, chart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's like a little bit about the market, U.S. stocks mostly higher on the day, the Dallup 16 basis points Russell, 2000 up 58 basis points.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't be 500 up 13 NASDAQ down 21.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But to say that stocks moved higher, really masks what we saw during the day.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They did end in either best levels, but they erased some pretty sizable midday declines.

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[SPEAKER_01]: At the same time, Brett was positive the equal weight S&P 500 outperform the cap weighted index by about 70 basis points, but in spite of the clawing back, those losses.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You have to be 500 NASDAQ still lower for the week, snapped three straight weekly gains.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Digging deeper out performers included airlines, hotels, casinos, restaurants, apparel and homebuilders, under performers included semi-investment banks, crypto, China tech, and machinery.

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[SPEAKER_01]: On the bond side treasuries, pretty narrowly mixed, we saw a little bit of curve, steepening yields up about two basis points at the long end.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Dollar index was down 20 basis points, gold finished up 40, crude oil, ended up about 50 basis points on the day.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Couple reasons, I would say, for some of the upside,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly, the offer from the Democrats and the shutdown exchange for a one year extension of ACA subsidies, although the GOP rejected that deal, it means that there's a bit of optimism that a potential resolution could be on the horizon, and the same time the Senate is now expected to remain in DC over the weekend.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, I scrutiny though.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Still does remain one of the big drivers of this recent risk off trade.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's weighed pretty heavily on popular names and because of that, the market's not really rewarding earnings beats.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's playing into this high bar dynamic.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The labor market, also softening headlines are generating more angst amid a pickup and concerns about cracks in the broader consumer resilience theme.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And a data document remains a big complication for near-term monetary policy decisions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Speaking of data preliminary, November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment printed at 50.6 against expectations of 54.2 and October's 53.6 final.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That report noted pretty broad declines with drag from worries about the government shutdown.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Your head inflation expectations are rose to 4.7% from the prior 4.6 with the 5x expectations dropped to 3.6 down from October's 3.9.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Looking ahead to next week, what do we got going on next week?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Mark will have to continue to deal with this macro data vacuum with both October CPI and retail sales delayed, but the government are delayed by the government shut down that is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So get some things though, and if I be small, business optimism index will be out on a Tuesday.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And big week for bonds, bonds apply on tap necks week with treasury, selling 58 billion of three your notes on the 10th, 42 billion of 10 your notes on the 12th, in 25 billion of 30 year bonds on the 13th.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Interesting to see how the market absorbs those and what the interest is from beyond the borders.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have an invest talk at YouTube channel where we used to post show content and we're working on kind of revamping what we bring you guys on various media platforms so stay tuned for all those changes that will be coming pretty soon, certainly before year end.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And while you're over there, checking out maybe our Classroom series or our Invest Talk Innovator series or our Sector Breakdown series or any of our webinars, if you leave a comment in the comments section, leave a question rather in the comments section.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, try and get to those as soon as we can.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This one coming in from CK5262 and it is on a well-known company, eBay.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it says it does the recent pull back on eBay, create a buying opportunity.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, eBay is a global online marketplace, it is an auction based marketplace is how it started out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now you can kind of just buy now, as they say as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It connects buyers and sellers across more than 190.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Markets, it's business model as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to facilitate transactions of goods and services with our platform.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to generate revenue, primarily through those seller fees, those listing fees, those commissions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And more recently, I would say increasingly, actually, they're generating some pretty solid revenue from advertising.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now taking a look at their fine antials for the full year 2024 Revenue was pretty strong.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would say 10.3 billion up from 10 billion and certainly headed in the right direction, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: In December 2019, Revenue's 10.7 billion and it was on a downward trend through the pandemic, they kind of righted the ship a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue projected to grow to a five-year high next year of 10.9 billion.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Same time net income is grown at about 2% on an annualized basis, margins.

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[SPEAKER_01]: remain relatively stable, but even a margin projected to grow from 25 to 31% this upcoming year, back near those highs in 2021.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And what's really driving this name is performed really well, 35.27% is what it's up year to date, up 35.12% over the past 52 weeks.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It was really driven, this is arguably strength.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And a focus on various categories, they're higher margin segments, like collectable items, like parts accessories, luxury goods, and the incorporation of advertising within their seller tools.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They have a growing advertising business.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's added this supplemental revenue stream along with their transactions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They've also kind of increased efficiency a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You see that in their growing and expanding margins, particularly their EBITDA margin, and with tech with AI, with their search of features, they've really revamped their platform enhancements.

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[SPEAKER_01]: eBay is a name that we were looking at eBay for a while, it's certainly been on my watch list, and its strength has been pretty solid since 2020.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's training at a relatively,

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[SPEAKER_01]: reasonable valuation, 13.8 times just slightly above its average over the past five years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now he mentioned a dip the caller, he or she mentioned a dip down about 9.91% in the past three months.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Frankly, I like eBay, seems pretty reasonable, and certainly growth headed in the right direction.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to the call.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're headed to New Break, still to come, more answers to your questions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: My main focus point, plenty of show topics and will from seeing you go hang on, you will be next after the break.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Invest talk innovators, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero interview company leaders, founders, and visionaries.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So head over to the Invest talk YouTube channel and look for Invest talk innovators.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Luke Guerrero is here now and ready to answer your finance and investment questions.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Call invest talk 888-99.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to will from San Diego.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You got to question about TSM.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's Taiwan and semiconductor.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would stop out of it today, and I was wondering what you think if it's worth trying to get back in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So this is a great question.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Taiwan, semi-conductor, is one of the largest, if not the largest, actually, it is the largest, dedicated to semi-conductor, boundary company.

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[SPEAKER_01]: in the world that is a critical component and what has been really the schematic driver of markets over the past years is AI theme and the stock has benefited pretty well up 45% year to date up 52% or sorry 42% over the past.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 52 weeks and you've seen revenue just explode coming out of the pandemic in December 2022 revenue 75 billion projected to be about 123 billion this year net income grew 26.7% from 2019 when it was 11 billion to 36 billion into 2024 projected to be 53 billion this year net margin.

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[SPEAKER_01]: skyrocketed, projected to be 43.9% this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, there has seemingly been a bit of a rotation over the past couple days out of these AI names because of these scrutiny associated with this theme.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We did a webinar on, all the ways that you can invest in AI outside of those big names like TSM and NVIDIA and the people who are really

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[SPEAKER_01]: and really need for the productivity gains and the monetization of AI itself to come sooner or later.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Given what I'm seeing in market dynamics, I think that potentially this pullback here has a little bit more room to run.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this name's been strong since 2020 on relative strength.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's priced earnings has come back towards a more reasonable valuation and about 23.8.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I just think that given what we've seen over the past week, over the past month, and a lot of the scrutiny, a lot of the hesitation, given where valuations are.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In the short term, I would probably hesitate to enter back into this name.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it is a core, core of the global semi-conductor supply chain, but you got to remember, semis are very cyclical, valuations are a bit high.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So at least for the short term, I'd be, like I said, a little hesitant to enter back into Taiwan, semi-conductor manufacturing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of in a similar vein,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk a little bit about rare earth metals.

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[SPEAKER_01]: U.S. listed rare earth miners have skyrocketed this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Some are at more than 300% as the global race for critical minerals, fuels would industry leaders are really calling the next great resource.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Boom, these rare earth elements, 17, and total are the backbone of modern technology to powder your smartphones, your EVs, your wind turbines, and also importantly the advanced defense systems.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Tony Sage, the CEO of Critical Metals, compared the surge to historic commodity years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You have the gold boom, the oil boom he says, the tech boom, and now the rare Earth's boom.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so because of the seafoen shares of many of these companies, do really well, soaring as much as triple digits this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Some companies seeing their stock prices quadruple, or maybe even quintuple, and this rally reflects a new front.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In what has been a US China rivalry, Washington is seeking to reduce its dependency on China, which controls nearly the entire global supply chain for rare earths.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Beijing recently delayed export controls on these key minerals, including rather following a meeting between Trump and G in South Korea, a temporary truce that sent U.S. rare earth stocks surging yet again.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, you got our little caution.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This boom carries classic signs of speculation in every boom.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Not every company makes it, especially within this business.

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[SPEAKER_01]: within these sectors it tends to be in some ways when or take all.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But that doesn't mean there's not long-term potential.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The trends will continue for those who have strong projects, solid partnerships, and important strategic locations.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It could be as some analysts have described a bigger, super-cycle driven by years of uninvestment, the rise of AI, in a global, global pivot

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[SPEAKER_01]: But this is still pretty early.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is still pretty early industrial shift.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's not necessarily this mid-life commodity boom, meaning, well, it's going to be expensive.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be volatile.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's not just going to be straight up into the right, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of volatility that could be here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you have heightened risks of cyclicality.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, within the US, you've seen policy in the past several years kind of shift from trying to, you know, this goes back years, multiple, multiple years.

21:09.226 --> 21:17.355
[SPEAKER_01]: Shift away from trying to fill the gap with importing for various countries and into trying to find a way to mine domestically.

21:18.196 --> 21:20.618
[SPEAKER_01]: And so this could raise costs, right?

21:20.658 --> 21:29.908
[SPEAKER_01]: Politics, natural security, all these things are shaping how far this movement can go.

21:30.142 --> 21:37.296
[SPEAKER_01]: Energy Transition Globally is pretty unstoppable and rare earth metals are an important part of that.

21:37.376 --> 21:45.031
[SPEAKER_01]: And while China's dominance remains pretty strong, America seems to be wanting to get in to the fight.

21:46.654 --> 21:52.926
[SPEAKER_01]: On the next investment talk, we'll look into this topic, passing the property torch, smart ways to leave real estate to your kids.

21:53.986 --> 22:00.620
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll have practical estate planning strategies for transferring property to children while keeping tax, timing, and family dynamics and focus.

22:01.361 --> 22:01.863
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Monday.

22:02.444 --> 22:06.392
[SPEAKER_01]: For now, I'm Luke Guerrero ready to take your calls at 808-99 chart.

22:17.527 --> 22:29.503
[SPEAKER_04]: The weekend is here or almost here, but you've got finance and investment questions, so step up and call in, invest talk, 888 99 chart.

22:30.204 --> 22:30.925
[SPEAKER_02]: I invest talk.

22:31.225 --> 22:34.970
[SPEAKER_02]: So when you guys could give your opinion on draft kings, it's come down quite a bit.

22:35.591 --> 22:41.759
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm actually very excited to buy it, but now that it's the back of these levels, I was thinking about picking up opposition.

22:42.560 --> 22:46.605
[SPEAKER_02]: I used to platform personally, a bunch of my friends do.

22:47.075 --> 22:55.429
[SPEAKER_02]: might be a problem between the friend group, but um, kind of spark the interest in purchasing stock, just because it seems like sticky, at least kind of my friend group.

22:56.130 --> 23:05.465
[SPEAKER_02]: I know they had just had some bad earnings, but it looks like it's becoming profitable, and I wanted to see if you thought that this could be good like risk versus reward at these levels.

23:05.665 --> 23:06.386
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll listen on the show.

23:06.547 --> 23:06.787
[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks.

23:07.248 --> 23:07.328
[UNKNOWN]: Bye.

23:07.595 --> 23:17.236
[SPEAKER_01]: Draft Kings is an online sports betting daily fantasy sports and casino style gaming company.

23:18.559 --> 23:26.076
[SPEAKER_01]: The operating the US, the operating internationally, and started out mainly with that daily fantasy sports segment.

23:26.663 --> 23:37.782
[SPEAKER_01]: As new states, new U.S. states are passing legislation that is allowed sports gambling outside of where traditionally has been, which is really casinos, Vegas, Atlantic City, they have been expanding as well.

23:38.664 --> 23:47.018
[SPEAKER_01]: And they've started to diversify into their eye gaming segment with their slots casinos games alongside their traditional sports book.

23:48.095 --> 24:09.597
[SPEAKER_01]: and revenue's growing right it's grown from about 615 million in 2020 to about 4.7 billion in 2024 projected to be 6.1 billion next year net income which had been negative from 2020 up until this year projected to go positive for the first time as margins are expanding a bit as well.

24:10.657 --> 24:20.919
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the devaluation basis trading about 28 times, price to forward looking earnings slightly above its low 13.7 times, price to book value slightly above its average.

24:20.979 --> 24:22.342
[SPEAKER_01]: But year to date, it's in struggling.

24:23.184 --> 24:27.233
[SPEAKER_01]: Down over 18% down 22% in the past 52 weeks.

24:27.253 --> 24:29.037
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I'm 32%

24:29.168 --> 24:30.209
[SPEAKER_01]: in the past three months alone.

24:30.229 --> 24:38.196
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, there has been rumblings about a potential acquisition of a different company to bolster its gambling portfolio.

24:38.216 --> 24:49.666
[SPEAKER_01]: It is up 8.65% today and in spite of this underperformance, it's relative strength over the past five years is still relatively positive compared to the S&P 500.

24:49.846 --> 24:58.213
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I think that, you know, in spite of some struggles

24:59.138 --> 25:03.647
[SPEAKER_01]: The recent quarterly reporting, the company is still growing.

25:04.809 --> 25:10.760
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it has some challenges that is very specific to this industry.

25:10.800 --> 25:21.180
[SPEAKER_01]: There is regulatory hurdles, there's cost headwinds, so new fees, taxes, and states that are allowing these types of gambling that could affect customers and behaviors that could affect margins.

25:21.802 --> 25:22.823
[SPEAKER_01]: But sports gambling's grown.

25:23.845 --> 25:27.770
[SPEAKER_01]: And whether you like it or not, it is part of advertising.

25:27.950 --> 25:31.295
[SPEAKER_01]: It is part of the sports leagues themselves.

25:32.917 --> 25:37.483
[SPEAKER_01]: And it looks like this company's trying to purchase prediction market companies well.

25:37.523 --> 25:39.646
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there's a growth vector to it.

25:40.947 --> 25:42.910
[SPEAKER_01]: On top of all the other growth vectors that it has.

25:43.110 --> 25:48.197
[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, I think that we may face an oversaturation problem.

25:49.274 --> 25:51.817
[SPEAKER_01]: in that it is proliferated anywhere and everywhere.

25:51.837 --> 26:03.149
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's also the issues with young men, in particular, who have lost a lot of money, to the point where maybe at some point there's some legislative intervention.

26:04.611 --> 26:16.243
[SPEAKER_01]: In spite of being able, or rather not being able to ignore how pervasive gambling has become across various layers of life, I think that from a thematic perspective,

26:16.578 --> 26:26.192
[SPEAKER_01]: The rate of the toy burden, the risks associated with what the product is, makes me a little bit hesitant to invest here.

26:27.514 --> 26:34.464
[SPEAKER_01]: Now they did report earnings earnings were positive that did lead to a bit of a surge in pricing, but I don't know.

26:34.485 --> 26:43.598
[SPEAKER_01]: I think thematically, I still see some issues, especially because it's still priced high, 28 times for looking earnings.

26:44.287 --> 26:45.929
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been priced higher for the past five years.

26:45.970 --> 26:53.821
[SPEAKER_01]: So for now, I think I would state out of this name, just a lot of risk, a lot of regulatory risk associated with draft kings.

26:53.881 --> 27:02.414
[SPEAKER_01]: That is, draft kings ink to your DK and G. Looks like we got another live call, Craig calling all the way from Seattle.

27:02.434 --> 27:05.980
[SPEAKER_01]: Got a question about AV and V. You want to be looking to buy it?

27:07.342 --> 27:08.063
[SPEAKER_07]: No, I own it.

27:08.383 --> 27:12.910
[SPEAKER_07]: So pretty boring.

27:13.109 --> 27:22.022
[SPEAKER_07]: But I'm five years from being able to touch it, but I pretty much got a quarter in A, B, G, E, a quarter in DF and W and a quarter in A, B, G, B.

27:22.422 --> 27:26.488
[SPEAKER_07]: So all global, but it only gives me about 28% international.

27:26.828 --> 27:28.270
[SPEAKER_07]: I want to close to the 40.

27:28.751 --> 27:34.519
[SPEAKER_07]: So at the end of 2023, I bought about 10% in A, B, M, B. I've been pretty happy with it.

27:35.080 --> 27:38.745
[SPEAKER_07]: But my two questions are, what do you think of that fund as a supplement?

27:38.962 --> 27:45.591
[SPEAKER_07]: And secondly, the two aggressive folks are offering it in the same way or does it ripo off in your mind?

27:46.032 --> 27:46.993
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a great question.

27:47.073 --> 27:57.688
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I used to work at dimensional fund advisors before I joined KPP work there for six years, so very familiar with their products, a couple of guys that I work with, broke off and started a Vontis.

27:57.708 --> 28:02.475
[SPEAKER_01]: So in terms of their management style, the people that work there, I know most of them very well.

28:03.176 --> 28:04.157
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do like their funds.

28:04.298 --> 28:08.884
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they are systematic funds

28:08.864 --> 28:25.506
[SPEAKER_01]: Factors that we know historically have led to higher-expected returns, mainly size, profitability, and more value-oriented companies, and they certainly do that within a VNV as well, which is the advantage of all international market value ETF.

28:25.486 --> 28:39.343
[SPEAKER_01]: And so if you're looking for that broad exposure and you say it's boring, but nobody who has a million dollars in any account should everything anything is boring, I think this is a very good way to attack that it has relatively low management fee only about five basis points.

28:39.391 --> 28:45.899
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it does a pretty solid job of getting exposure across the size value profitability spectrum.

28:46.499 --> 28:50.524
[SPEAKER_01]: And although you may say it's boring, it gets you what you what you essentially are looking for.

28:50.544 --> 28:56.591
[SPEAKER_01]: And what we've seen over the past year, so is international markets are doing pretty darn well.

28:56.891 --> 29:00.876
[SPEAKER_01]: Something we haven't seen over the past decade.

29:01.565 --> 29:03.608
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the question of should you have it in your Roth?

29:03.708 --> 29:05.912
[SPEAKER_01]: Should you have it in your brokerage account?

29:05.932 --> 29:10.339
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm having trouble seeing what the yield is here on this fund.

29:10.359 --> 29:12.022
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, traditionally, it looks like 3.13%.

29:12.122 --> 29:17.110
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's a relatively solid yield for an ETF.

29:17.090 --> 29:32.709
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I think if you're thinking about growth, you're thinking which international markets certainly have, if you're getting a solid distribution yield like you're seeing, there are certainly benefits to keeping that in your Roth account, given the tax beneficial nature of that portfolio.

29:33.430 --> 29:33.951
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

29:34.592 --> 29:34.912
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.

29:35.613 --> 29:36.114
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Friday.

29:36.134 --> 29:41.641
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think I have to tell you that, but on Friday, we make time for a quick rundown of key benchmark numbers.

29:41.681 --> 29:44.464
[SPEAKER_01]: So let me hit you with that list right now.

29:44.984 --> 29:50.526
[SPEAKER_01]: The two-year treasure yield was at 3.56% today for perspective, last week that number was 3.6.

29:50.546 --> 29:55.365
[SPEAKER_01]: 211 weeks ago that number was 0.64.

29:56.543 --> 30:04.476
[SPEAKER_01]: The 10-year yield was at $4.09 today last week that number is $4.097 and $199 weeks ago that number is $1.762.

30:05.898 --> 30:13.410
[SPEAKER_01]: Gold just barely over $4,000 at $4,000 and $1 per ounce today at $24 increase compared to the last week.

30:13.430 --> 30:21.943
[SPEAKER_01]: 14 weeks ago that number was $33.48 and $193 weeks ago when we all wish we bought a lot of gold that number was $18.06.

30:22.750 --> 30:25.633
[SPEAKER_01]: Silverwood today was priced at 4830 per ounce.

30:25.693 --> 30:28.536
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a 48 cent decrease compared to the last week.

30:29.437 --> 30:34.842
[SPEAKER_01]: 91 weeks back that number was 20 to 80 and looking back 185 weeks, Silverwood was 23.94.

30:35.242 --> 30:43.410
[SPEAKER_01]: Oil was selling for $59.75 per barrel that is a $1.18 decreased compared to the last week.

30:43.430 --> 30:45.192
[SPEAKER_01]: 59 weeks go that number is 67.79.

30:45.212 --> 30:48.195
[SPEAKER_01]: 101 weeks back that number was 74.30.

30:48.836 --> 30:52.099
[SPEAKER_01]: And 200 weeks go that number was 66.62.

30:52.383 --> 30:58.392
[SPEAKER_01]: National average for a gallon of regular gasoline is three dollars and eight cents a four cent increase compared with one week ago.

30:58.452 --> 31:05.243
[SPEAKER_01]: Hundred twenty seven weeks back that number three fifty six and a hundred seventy five weeks back that number was four twenty five in California.

31:06.044 --> 31:10.531
[SPEAKER_01]: It was averaging four sixty nine per gallon a seven cent increase compared to last week.

31:11.813 --> 31:17.682
[SPEAKER_01]: But still lower than a hundred and five weeks ago and it was five thirty two and a hundred eighty one weeks back when it was five eighty seven.

31:18.016 --> 31:27.209
[SPEAKER_01]: For comparison, an Indiana gas is averaging $3.6 per gallon today, that is $1.63 less than gas in California.

31:27.229 --> 31:41.931
[SPEAKER_01]: The Federal Reserve released their latest financial stability report, and in a way it painted a pretty complex picture of today's markets, policy uncertainty geopolitics, and AI emerging as the top risks to financial stability.

31:42.232 --> 31:48.000
[SPEAKER_01]: The report showed a pretty notable shift in sentiment among market participants compared to what they saw earlier this year.

31:48.921 --> 32:05.202
[SPEAKER_01]: Global trade once the singular top concern has now unfolded into a broader category of policy uncertainty, cited by 61% of respondents reflecting this wider unease over both government dysfunction and central bank independence.

32:05.772 --> 32:19.785
[SPEAKER_01]: For the first time, responded cited central bank independence as a financial stability risk a direct response to President Trump's firing a Fed Governor Lisa Cook and public attacks on chair Gerald Powell for not cutting rates more aggressively.

32:21.006 --> 32:33.417
[SPEAKER_01]: The prolonged government shutdown has also earned its first mention as a risk factor with the absence of official economic data adding to this layer of uncertainty in financial and monetary policy decision making.

32:33.650 --> 32:51.669
[SPEAKER_01]: At the same time, right, AI was cited, 30% of contacts saw it as a potential market shock over the next 12 to 18 months, a growing fear that AI driven enthusiasm could reduce or rather reverse, pretty suddenly triggering large losses in equity markets.

32:52.450 --> 33:02.661
[SPEAKER_01]: The Fed warned that a rapid shift in sediment towards AI could have spill over effects on the broader economy as valuations in tech heavy indices, while they're remaining

33:03.063 --> 33:13.959
[SPEAKER_01]: And these were the only concerns persistent inflation elevated long term interest rates and rising government debt all seen as ongoing headwinds to financial stability.

33:15.061 --> 33:16.002
[SPEAKER_01]: Wasn't all bad though, right?

33:16.022 --> 33:31.585
[SPEAKER_01]: There was a bit of positivity on a positive note that the Fed observed that commercial real estate long a pain point since the pandemic is in a way beginning to stabilize, even as a wave of maturing loans threatens to test that progress.

33:31.953 --> 33:37.439
[SPEAKER_01]: But speaking of debt, consumer and student loan debt, the linquencies creeping ever higher.

33:37.499 --> 33:43.625
[SPEAKER_01]: The resumption of student loan payments in 2025, driving a notable uptick in missed payments.

33:44.686 --> 33:45.887
[SPEAKER_01]: Leverage also a concern.

33:45.927 --> 33:47.409
[SPEAKER_01]: Leverage across the financial system.

33:48.249 --> 33:52.694
[SPEAKER_01]: Drew attention, hedge fund leverage has climbed up to its highest level since tracking began in 2013.

33:53.635 --> 33:57.859
[SPEAKER_01]: And life ensures are carrying near record debt loads.

33:58.497 --> 34:13.430
[SPEAKER_01]: The Fed for what it's worth concluded that while banks remain well-capitalized, pockets of risk is specially in private credit and high-level funds, warrant pretty close monitoring as the US heads into another year of policy and market uncertainty.

34:14.271 --> 34:28.403
[SPEAKER_01]: I think when you have this desert of macroeconomic data looking at these types of surveys, these types of reports can help guide us on how other market participants are thinking.

34:28.788 --> 34:50.454
[SPEAKER_09]: Hello, my question is about a 457 retirement plan, something I've heard, many people talk about, you know, it might not be offered to everybody's employer, this my understanding that that is an account that you can withdraw from when you retire, even if you're not at the retirement age of 59 and a half, and it's taxed just like a 401k.

34:51.435 --> 34:56.922
[SPEAKER_09]: I haven't heard much about it, but I didn't know if you guys could extend on that and

34:57.644 --> 34:58.946
[SPEAKER_09]: Thank you very much.

34:58.966 --> 35:00.828
[SPEAKER_09]: I'll be listening.

35:00.848 --> 35:11.320
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll talk in a 4.57 retirement plan comes really in two flavors governmental ones, so city, state, county, all those types of things, and non governmental ones, certain non profits.

35:13.183 --> 35:21.232
[SPEAKER_01]: Like 401k's there are contribution limits, there are special catchup rules in the last three years before no more retirement age, you can contribute up to double the annual amount.

35:22.354 --> 35:24.276
[SPEAKER_01]: If you under contributed in past years,

35:26.315 --> 35:32.544
[SPEAKER_01]: There are the ability to roll them over into IRAs for a one case or other for 57 plans.

35:32.564 --> 35:34.607
[SPEAKER_01]: There are MDs which start at 73.

35:34.647 --> 35:45.983
[SPEAKER_01]: And their investment options offer mirror for a one case with mutual funds, target date from refunds and the like.

35:46.003 --> 35:47.445
[SPEAKER_01]: One way they are different though.

35:49.383 --> 36:04.788
[SPEAKER_01]: Especially the governmental ones is that the heavy unique feature compared to those 401Ks or their 4 or 3Bs, there is no 10% early would draw penalty if you leave your employer, even if you are younger than 59.5, you can start withdrawing as soon as you separate from service.

36:05.569 --> 36:13.602
[SPEAKER_01]: If you quit, if you retire, if you're late off, but these regular income taxes will still apply.

36:13.919 --> 36:23.452
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if it's a non-governmental 457B, well, with draws are typically more restricted and may depend on your employers' specific rules.

36:24.574 --> 36:36.490
[SPEAKER_01]: So, if you're a government employee, it is likely that you do have this benefit here, and I think when you have access to these types of accounts, having that tax diversity can be incredibly beneficial.

36:37.251 --> 36:42.458
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it's Friday and on Fridays, we generally like to give you a little bit of hint.

36:42.927 --> 36:50.179
[SPEAKER_01]: on the newest KPP premium newsletter, which comes out every single Saturday afternoon.

36:51.061 --> 37:07.348
[SPEAKER_01]: In the KPP Insight section, we touched on a hot topic, the growing risk of over-concentration and valuation in AI and big tech, what that could mean for markets, and why all these fears of an AI-driven bubble in higher valuations could come back to bite.

37:08.408 --> 37:18.672
[SPEAKER_01]: In the stock idea section, we mentioned a waste and environmental services company, as well as a US-based company that provides security, automation, and smart home solutions.

37:19.681 --> 37:23.708
[SPEAKER_01]: And in the portfolio management section, we touched on a year-end portfolio tune-up.

37:24.510 --> 37:30.882
[SPEAKER_01]: Just to give you an idea of all the things you should be thinking about as we head deeper into the fourth quarter.

37:31.583 --> 37:37.554
[SPEAKER_01]: If any of that sounds interesting, if all of that sounds interesting, visit us at invest.com and hit subscribe.

37:38.416 --> 37:43.545
[SPEAKER_01]: All subscribers will see the newsletters hit their inbox on Saturday mornings.

37:44.065 --> 37:51.635
[SPEAKER_01]: And while I'm at it, I wanna plug one more time because I think it was such a great webinar, our newest webinar available on our YouTube channel in Vestock with two T's.

37:52.276 --> 37:57.423
[SPEAKER_01]: We go over all the types of companies that you can invest in just to get some exposure to the AI theme.

37:57.944 --> 38:06.595
[SPEAKER_01]: In a way that hedges against some of the downside of investing in those direct tech companies, all over on our Vestock YouTube channel in Vestock with two T's.

38:07.457 --> 38:08.097
[SPEAKER_01]: Two T's, that is.

38:09.399 --> 38:10.060
[SPEAKER_01]: This is in Vestock.

38:10.300 --> 38:13.785
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Luke Rare, we have one goal here to help you achieve your financial freedom.

38:14.221 --> 38:17.544
[SPEAKER_01]: Our work continues after this break to get your questions in now at 888-99-chart.

38:17.584 --> 38:33.761
[SPEAKER_04]: No two portfolios are alike, and every investor has a unique set of circumstances.

38:34.322 --> 38:37.405
[SPEAKER_04]: So don't forget to call the Invest talk.

38:37.425 --> 38:39.587
[SPEAKER_04]: 888-99-chart.

38:41.727 --> 38:42.488
[SPEAKER_08]: Hi there.

38:42.508 --> 38:44.692
[SPEAKER_08]: This is Joe calling from Nashville.

38:44.752 --> 38:48.378
[SPEAKER_08]: I wanted to get your take on Murphy USA.

38:48.598 --> 38:56.832
[SPEAKER_08]: Take a simple MUSA, operate a large national chain of gas visions to be in stores.

38:57.433 --> 39:03.803
[SPEAKER_08]: I use the company a lot, which is why I'm interested, but as I'm looking at their chart, it looks like it's never cheap.

39:04.070 --> 39:08.837
[SPEAKER_08]: So I'm thinking you're taking on the company and see what a good entry point may be.

39:09.277 --> 39:11.561
[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you so much as always for your help.

39:11.581 --> 39:19.932
[SPEAKER_01]: Murphy USAMUSA is the ticker is a retail gas and convenience store chain in the US.

39:21.114 --> 39:24.559
[SPEAKER_01]: Operating under Murphy USA and Murphy Express.

39:25.130 --> 39:27.617
[SPEAKER_01]: Relative strength has been pretty solid going back to 2019.

39:28.500 --> 39:39.814
[SPEAKER_01]: You're today though, struggling down 27.52% year to date down 28.45% over the past 52 weeks down 2.32% over the past three months.

39:40.807 --> 39:56.706
[SPEAKER_01]: valuations, not too bad, 14.1 times price before looking earnings, just a little bit below their average price to bookstore stands at 12.2, a little bit above their average price to sale sitting at 0.4, certainly the average over the past five years.

39:56.686 --> 40:04.678
[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue growth solid, about 7.6% going back to 2019, but the same time as gas has struggled, or rather oil has struggled.

40:04.738 --> 40:06.761
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, they've struggled a little bit as well.

40:07.342 --> 40:14.632
[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue growth falling from 21.5 billion in December 2023 to 20.2 billion in 24.

40:14.673 --> 40:19.099
[SPEAKER_01]: Richard Faldon, 19.5 billion in this upcoming

40:19.079 --> 40:19.580
[SPEAKER_01]: year.

40:20.261 --> 40:26.851
[SPEAKER_01]: And they've got a pretty good job of placing their locations off in near hydrific retail.

40:27.672 --> 40:31.337
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the business has benefited from steady consumer flows.

40:31.798 --> 40:33.540
[SPEAKER_01]: They also have diversified beyond fuel sales.

40:33.581 --> 40:36.665
[SPEAKER_01]: They're large merchandise and convenient store components.

40:37.266 --> 40:39.990
[SPEAKER_01]: Can buffer this fuel price?

40:39.970 --> 40:40.831
[SPEAKER_01]: volatility.

40:41.352 --> 40:44.217
[SPEAKER_01]: Geographically, they operate entirely in the United States.

40:44.778 --> 40:51.869
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a mid-cap company 8.9 billion, only got 2.3 billion in debt, so nothing too crazy.

40:51.889 --> 40:53.051
[SPEAKER_01]: There.

40:53.953 --> 40:58.079
[SPEAKER_01]: Overall, I think there could be a little bit of risk from their fuel margins, though.

40:58.320 --> 41:02.907
[SPEAKER_01]: Fuel retail is exposed to wholesale fuel margin compression,

41:02.887 --> 41:14.365
[SPEAKER_01]: regulatory and tax changes consuming or changing consumer behavior more people working from home fewer people driving at a lot of that has really flown into this price here.

41:14.783 --> 41:17.206
[SPEAKER_01]: I think overall, it's a solid company, right?

41:17.226 --> 41:19.629
[SPEAKER_01]: Valuations are becoming more reasonable.

41:20.250 --> 41:23.774
[SPEAKER_01]: They have that broader diversification than a lot of their competitors do.

41:24.495 --> 41:28.319
[SPEAKER_01]: But from a minimum technical basis, I'd probably still keep it on my watch list for now.

41:28.840 --> 41:30.762
[SPEAKER_01]: Looks pretty poor with that respect.

41:30.802 --> 41:33.525
[SPEAKER_01]: That is Murphy USA, Tickerton, and USA.

41:34.026 --> 41:43.137
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we're already talking a little bit about critical minerals, but the US Department of the Interior has expanded its official list at in copper, silver, and metallurgical coal.

41:43.117 --> 41:47.563
[SPEAKER_01]: We move that in a way could reshape trade and tariff policy in the months ahead.

41:48.284 --> 41:52.650
[SPEAKER_01]: These additions are part of a 10 element update released Thursday by the U.S. G.S.

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[SPEAKER_01]: which refreshes the list every three years to guide national security-related policy decisions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And this list influences two key areas, section 230, two tariff reviews, which determine levees imposed for national security reasons, and eligibility for federal support for domestic mining projects.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Trump administration has made secure and critical mineral supply chains a cornerstone of its economic agenda, expanding what qualifies as critical, and never to reduce dependence on foreign imports.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Several newly added minerals, such as the ones I mentioned are already produced domestically in large quantities, but their inclusion signals a desire to strengthen US control.

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[SPEAKER_01]: over industrial inputs.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This inclusion was widely anticipated isn't a surprise, but silver's appearance on the West took markets a bit by surprise.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it could have large ripple effects.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Traders have now built up massive inventories of silver in New York reaching record highs, even as London has seen temporary shortages.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The US currently imports roughly two thirds of its silver, which is vital for electronics, jewelry, and investment.

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[SPEAKER_01]: By broadening this definition of critical, Washington is signaling to investors in industry that a resource security is now a central pillar of national strategy and future trade actions could soon follow.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Luke Raring this completes another invest talk podcast.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And as always, if today's show, maybe think about your financial picture, your investment, your taxes, your retirement, whether it's really all working the best way it possibly can for you, let's talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is in Vestock.

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