[SPEAKER_04]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_04]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_04]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

[SPEAKER_04]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero,

[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lou Guerrero, and today's Tuesday, November 11th, 2020, 25.

[SPEAKER_01]: And despite of it being Veterans Day and a special thank you out there to all of those who have served this country, the stock market was open today, which means that all right, sorry, in spite of that, bonds were closed, but it doesn't mean we didn't get news in both markets.

[SPEAKER_01]: And all this is within the frame of, well thanksgiving is already a little more than two weeks away.

[SPEAKER_01]: And typically as you head towards the end of the year, there tend to be trends, there tend to be expectations, but because things can change quickly,

[SPEAKER_01]: It is critical that you do not lose focus.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so the objective for this podcast, for this radio program, for really all of the content we create for you, the listener and viewer is to help make you a better and more informed investor.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now in order to do that, we at Invest Talk bring educational and actionable material each and every day to this show and you also are a part of this as well because your finance and invested questions are critical to really all of us learning together.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now just a bit, we're going to talk about today's market performance and run down those show topics, but let's tackle this color question now.

[SPEAKER_07]: This is Andrew from Atlanta.

[SPEAKER_07]: My question is, would Justin or Lou, what is a good price to buy my croissants?

[SPEAKER_07]: I want to try to get in there and just hold it until I'm bankrupt.

[SPEAKER_07]: I sure love the show guys, and keep doing the great work, have a great day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully, and maybe laugh, you don't hold anything until you are bankrupt.

[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, we want to do the exact opposite, but Microsoft is a global, massive, huge technology conglomerate.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have productivity and business software, they have cloud infrastructure, they have consumer computing segments, they have video games,

[SPEAKER_01]: Big company, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: It is massive, 3.7 trillion dollars.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you want eight trillion, actually, is what its market cap is.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're to date, it's up 20.68% up 21.69% over the past 52 weeks, but been on a bit of a downtrend over the last three months, down 2.51%.

[SPEAKER_01]: which really been driving its year-to-date performance is not just AI moment, I'm like a lot of other names have, but they're cloud segment as well as your and other cloud services are scaling pretty rapidly in Q4 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: Their cloud segment saw growth reach 39%.

[SPEAKER_01]: 39%.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's pretty remarkable.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're occurring revenue.

[SPEAKER_01]: Also up 21% in the most recent quarter and they have a pretty strong backlog of enterprise commitments.

[SPEAKER_01]: With their strong cash for that they continue to generate, they're also repurchasing shares,

[SPEAKER_01]: and issuing dividends in Q4 alone, 9.4 billion returned to shareholders in Q4 of their fiscal year, which ends in June.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, right now, it's sitting at evaluation, which is near its average over the past five years, 21.9.6 times, it's price to cashflow 25 times, below its average price to book value 10 times, below its average,

[SPEAKER_01]: And the margins are crazy, 36% net margin, 57.7% EBITDA margin, my I mean, it's just their their net income going 18% on an annualized basis up from 88.1% or sorry, 88.1 billion dollars to 101.8 billion dollars in one year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so we like Microsoft, we hold Microsoft in one

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's really done well over the past year for all the reasons that I stated now one concern is okay you're starting to see a bit of a rotation out of tech, but I think that amongst all the tech names that have been driven by this AI theme because of the growth within their cloud software, their cloud space, I think there's a little bit less risk with this company so we hold Microsoft and for now we will continue to do so.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: You've got a lot of ground to cover it in the next 45 minutes or so.

[SPEAKER_01]: Need a little bit of what we have planned for you all.

[SPEAKER_01]: My main focus point is about a very important topic, and that it's going to be ways to look at value investing.

[SPEAKER_01]: What should you be looking for?

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll go through all of those things in that story.

[SPEAKER_01]: We also have

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot to talk about with respect to recent jobs data and how the holiday could it spill, what the holiday could spell for job seekers, also touch on some angst amongst investors, big eyes, spending, and I spending from big tech.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's starting to spill over into the bond markets so some concerns to look at there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Should we have time with the end of the show?

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll touch on how, although recessions had become rare, that could spell some trouble in the near future.

[SPEAKER_01]: We also got some voice-mate questions ready to play, including one on interactive brookers group, ink, IBKR, and calculating eight companies.

[SPEAKER_01]: That as well as some questions that came into the comment section of the University of a YouTube channel, of course that welcome you to our finance and investment questions now or any time throughout the channel.

[SPEAKER_01]: Moving to New Break, and it is very likely that you will probably be making several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Before you do, I recommend that you look at our new Comprehensive Q42025 economic and market outlook report.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a free read and it's posted down in Vestock.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: My phone lines are open waiting for you now at 888-99-Chair.

[SPEAKER_06]: Serious investors are certain to have finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_06]: What do you think is a good price?

[SPEAKER_06]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

[SPEAKER_05]: I was wondering from your standpoint, if they're at downside, in buying fractional shares versus whole shares.

[SPEAKER_06]: And 24, 7 rain or shine, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

[SPEAKER_05]: But technically, right now, I like it.

[SPEAKER_05]: I like the momentum.

[SPEAKER_05]: But what's going to don't like those fundamentals?

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, while gold is hitting these record highs, it's driven by these safe haven demand by central bank buying across the board.

[SPEAKER_06]: Your participation makes an invest talk better.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm calling to ask about core and main.

[SPEAKER_11]: This is Josh and North Carolina.

[SPEAKER_11]: This is my little firm George City area.

[SPEAKER_06]: Let's take a live call, Sam from San Jose.

[SPEAKER_06]: So don't forget to call, Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_06]: Great advice, thank you.

[SPEAKER_06]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_06]: Invest talk innovators, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, interview company leaders, founders, and visionaries.

[SPEAKER_06]: So head over to the Invest Talk YouTube channel and look for Invest Talk innovators.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk a little bit about the market today, the Dow up 1.18%, S&B 500 lagged a bit up 21 basis points, Nasdaq down 25, Russell 2000 up 11.

[SPEAKER_01]: Overall, pretty broadly finishing the day higher, though a bit off of their best levels.

[SPEAKER_01]: Bruthor's also positive, the Equal Way S&P outperformed Vcapway to the index on the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Taking a little bit of sectors, outperformers included energy, biotech, pharma, food and beverage, grocers, apparel, med tech doing particularly well today.

[SPEAKER_01]: Relative underperformers included semi-is communication names, airlines, trucking, cruise lines, and aluminum.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nothing for the bottom market, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Treasury market was closed in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

[SPEAKER_01]: Dollar indexed out, though, was off 10 basis points.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gold finished down 10 basis points in crude oil, settled up 1.5%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Rotation Rotation Rotation seemed to be the big story of the day you saw select defensive and cyclical pockets of the market outperforming.

[SPEAKER_01]: While some of that AI trade has come under, really renewed scrutiny after the big bounce on Monday.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll really drove that scrutiny well in video, had a pullback on the news that soft bank was selling a large stake in that company for several billion dollars, core weave, not doing particularly well, Meta's Chief AI scientist at announced was leaving.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll probably see this market reaction that was negative.

[SPEAKER_01]: also digesting that story about spillover of AI capex angst into the bond market that we talking a little bit about later today.

[SPEAKER_01]: Malay remark it's softening.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's also back in the headlines.

[SPEAKER_01]: With the latest weekly data from ADP and some cautious sell side comments, though, again, the impact on recentment is likely cushioned via the support of further fetting, but these comments really showing that, well, jobs might be in a worse place than really we can view given that the government is still shut down.

[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty quiet elsewhere, again, a lot of delayed macro data.

[SPEAKER_01]: seasonality, flow information, probably to be a tailwind into the end of the year as it generally is, but you know, positioning still seems to be a place where there's been recent ramp-up and shorts that could affect market structure.

[SPEAKER_01]: As I mentioned that ADP weekly jobs report estimated the U.S. lost 11,250 jobs a week for the four weeks through October 25th, contrast that with last week's report of 42,000 October job gains.

[SPEAKER_01]: So just a slow down near month end and if I be small business optimism index also dropped to 98.2 in October in line with the consensus and down from the 98.8 reading in September

[SPEAKER_01]: Respondents noting challenges with the labor market and concerns about general levels of profitability.

[SPEAKER_01]: Looking ahead, a lot of Fed speakers on Wednesday, big busy day of Fed speak, and a lot of Treasury Sound.

[SPEAKER_01]: Treasury to sell 42 billion of 10-year notes on Thursday and selling 30 billion of 30-year bonds on Friday.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think we gotta keep things moving and dive into the YouTube comment section.

[SPEAKER_01]: As you're probably aware, we do have a YouTube channel where we do distinct content from what we offer you in this podcast.

[SPEAKER_01]: And while you're over there, if you got a question, well, you can leave it right in the comment section of any of our videos and we'll get to that as soon as we possibly can.

[SPEAKER_01]: This one is on Bax and ZBH.

[SPEAKER_01]: It says I've owned Bax and ZBH for 30 years.

[SPEAKER_01]: Neither is doing well, but I think of them as good businesses.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is there any help for their value to increase?

[SPEAKER_01]: Should I just take losses in them or keep holding 30 years?

[SPEAKER_01]: Is an incredibly long time, frankly, to do anything.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a look at these two companies, B-A-X first, backster, international ink.

[SPEAKER_01]: The portfolio of essential healthcare products, including acute and chronic dialysis, therapies, IV drugs, infusion systems, and other medical devices.

[SPEAKER_01]: Chartlookerial rough, going all the way back into the pandemic, consistent downtrend, down 37.41%, you're today down 22.21% over the past.

[SPEAKER_01]: 52 weeks, Q3 earnings up 5% year over year, but still not good enough relative to consensus.

[SPEAKER_01]: The company recently cut its dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's never a good sign.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's credit rating was downgraded.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have lingering supply chain manufacturing headwinds.

[SPEAKER_01]: Honestly, when chart looks like this, momentum looks like this.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, geez, they've been underperforming perennial since 2019 relative to their industry.

[SPEAKER_01]: Post-pandemic, that underperformance was upwards of 18% every year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So for Bax, no, get rid of this thing, get rid of it, get rid of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're a better opportunities, and certainly if you've been holding onto it all this time, your underperformance has been massive, relative to the rest of the market.

[SPEAKER_01]: So let's take a look at Zimmer Biomatic or ZBH.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Zimmer Biomet is a medical device's company.

[SPEAKER_01]: They focus predominantly on musculoskeletal health care.

[SPEAKER_01]: So think orthopedic implants.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hips, knees, trauma, robotics.

[SPEAKER_01]: all of those types of products.

[SPEAKER_01]: You today they're down 16.22% down 11.52% over the past few months, down 19.15% over the past 52 weeks, another perennial under performer here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue growth down year over year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Net margins.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, but growth is really slow.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're sitting at the low end of their valuations.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the company announced recent acquisitions, but they did cut their 2025 organic growth guidance.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think the big problem here's growth.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're seeing weakness, not just for their products in the United States, but externally as well, Latin America emerging Europe.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so again, you have to think of investing as if I'm holding this, it means I'm not holding something else.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think they're better places for you to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is Bax and ZVH.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for watching.

[SPEAKER_01]: or move it into breaks.com my main focus point and more answers to your questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: I encourage you to call them out.

[SPEAKER_01]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_06]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

[SPEAKER_06]: Now the torch has been passed and a new generation of hosts is on the job, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_06]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_01]: value investing.

[SPEAKER_01]: How do you spot under valued stocks?

[SPEAKER_01]: Value investing centers on finding stocks that are trading below their true works, so you buy quality companies, you find them at a discount, and then you hold on to them until the market recognizes their value.

[SPEAKER_01]: One of the most well-known value investors who coincidentally released a letter today, actually,

[SPEAKER_01]: That is classic reminder, price is what you pay, values what you get.

[SPEAKER_01]: The point of that is to emphasize the benefits of being disciplined over the benefits of chasing some trend falling into the hype.

[SPEAKER_01]: Value investors typically target steady, often unglamers businesses like banks, like industrials, like mature dividend payers.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not those large, grothy names whose values are predicated upon future cash flows, value businesses tend to be ones that are delivering.

[SPEAKER_01]: Today, you focus on consistency rather than that rapid, rapid growth.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now identifying a true value play begins with, well, you wanna look at its fundamentals.

[SPEAKER_01]: Does it have a low price to earnings?

[SPEAKER_01]: Does it have a low price to book value?

[SPEAKER_01]: Does it have strong cash flows?

[SPEAKER_01]: Are its debt levels modest?

[SPEAKER_01]: Are their healthy returns on equity and returns on assets?

[SPEAKER_01]: The company that is showing solid revenue and earnings growth despite market pessimism?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's one that may be under value, especially,

[SPEAKER_01]: If it maintains its history of reliable dividend payments, repurchases, returning dollars to shareholders, broader industry trends, insider buying, temporary market misprice and all help signal when a stock's weakness is more emotional than structural.

[SPEAKER_01]: You also want to find companies that have a competitive advantage strong brands, great efficiencies at scale, patents, high entry barriers.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's what tends to define companies most likely to outperform over time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now a key tenant of value investing is maintaining a margin of safety, buying well below the intrinsic value, so that you can try and protect against forecasting errors, market shocks, any exogenous things that you don't.

[SPEAKER_01]: Necessarily expect when you are entering into a position, but you would do well to try and protect yourself from.

[SPEAKER_01]: But what do I mean by intrinsic value?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well intrinsic value is how much something should be worth and to calculate that there's many ways you can do it.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can do fundamental analysis.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can apply you have to apply discount rates.

[SPEAKER_01]: So when you're doing this maybe you apply higher discount rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: That can help guard you against overpaying particularly in volatile sectors.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sounds easy when you talk about.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is a lot more complicated in practice because there are some pitfalls that you have to avoid.

[SPEAKER_01]: Value traps, companies that look like they're undervalued, would in fact, they are not.

[SPEAKER_01]: Slow or growth industries.

[SPEAKER_01]: Financial distress, all of these things can make stocks appear cheap, but also stay cheap.

[SPEAKER_01]: To be a successful value investor, you need long-term conviction.

[SPEAKER_01]: You need to be able to resist your emotional reactions to market swings.

[SPEAKER_01]: Avoid the temptation to chase hot trends.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ultimately, ultimately, discipline investors who prioritize fundamentals, diversification, but most importantly, periodic reassessment can use the principles of value investing to build

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's get to another listener question before I next break.

[SPEAKER_10]: Hey, Justin and Luke, it's John from Georgia.

[SPEAKER_10]: I'm just calling to ask you guys what you think about interactive brokers.

[SPEAKER_10]: IBKR, I don't know right now, I'm pretty good, about 28%.

[SPEAKER_10]: Swanners, is this a time to take profits?

[SPEAKER_10]: Or do you see a moving higher looking forward?

[SPEAKER_10]: I mean, looks like there's some growth to be had, but just wondering what I should do here.

[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: IVKR Interactive Brokers Group is an investment company, they're a broker dealer, and have a proprietary trading business.

[SPEAKER_01]: As well, you're to date up 60.46% of 57.94% in the past 52 weeks, up 7% over the past.

[SPEAKER_01]: month.

[SPEAKER_01]: One of the reasons why is because they have done a really good job in their core business offering access to stocks, options, futures, all sorts of trading to a bunch of retail clients.

[SPEAKER_01]: They added four plus million customers one year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So daily average revenue trades up 58 percent versus the prior period.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the growth is phenomenal.

[SPEAKER_01]: Technology scale.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have a pretty

[SPEAKER_01]: So that gives you wide asset class access at pretty low costs and decently advanced tools.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you believe that institutional retail trading activity will continue to grow, then there's a lot of room for growth here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Train it 31 times for looking earnings so I would probably take some profits but I have no problem with you to continue to hold this name as a solid position.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: On the next invest talk, we'll have this topic for you 50 year mortgages, quick fix or costly mistake, we'll examine why ultra long loans may lower payments, but slow equity building and raise lifetime interest costs, what that means for housing affordability.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's tomorrow, but for now I'm Luke Guerrero ready to take your calls at 80-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_06]: In Vestard, your questions are free.

[SPEAKER_06]: The answers are unbiased.

[SPEAKER_06]: Luke Guerrero is here now.

[SPEAKER_06]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_11]: my name is Dan.

[SPEAKER_11]: My question was how are you guys determined when you say that a company has a lot of debt or does not have much debt?

[SPEAKER_11]: How do you determine that?

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so that's a great question because I think there's no simple answer here.

[SPEAKER_01]: So one thing you can look at is what is a company's long-term debt relative to its equity?

[SPEAKER_01]: how much is a company paying an interest relative to its earnings before interest in taxes?

[SPEAKER_01]: Capitalization definitely matters, but what's servicing that debt costs matters as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: The company that has a loan out for 60 years, at 1%, but it's the same amount of debt due next year, at 10%, those two things aren't the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not just the amount of debt, but the maturity of the debt, the interest on the debt, what that cost is actually going to incur to the company.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you can't really just look at it in isolation either.

[SPEAKER_01]: Different industries have different natural, if you will.

[SPEAKER_01]: Levels of debt, necessary, utilities.

[SPEAKER_01]: new companies could have debt.

[SPEAKER_01]: Energy companies can have a lot of debt.

[SPEAKER_01]: Telecommunications companies.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you have to look at it within the context of the industry and the sector as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: But understanding the best way to look at this can help you stay away from companies that put you in debted peril.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: Stay tuned around and answer another one

[SPEAKER_01]: Looking for another transport stock, and after a pretty deep dive, I came up with Martin Transport, ticker M-R-T-N.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's type that in here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everything looks great that I can see except the normal headwinds the transport industry is currently experiencing.

[SPEAKER_01]: synopsis martin transport is a temperature sensitive truckload carrier and has a long-standing reputation of operational discipline and conservative financial management.

[SPEAKER_01]: Five-year cash flow is consistently increased in some insider buying, but it's been coming down steadily since December 2023.

[SPEAKER_01]: Cut in half actually, what am I missing?

[SPEAKER_01]: Is it too early?

[SPEAKER_01]: to buy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Martin transport obviously a transport name and a lot of what the Iraq Don 1964 said it's pretty true because year to date they're down 36.71% down 45.89% over the past 52 weeks.

[SPEAKER_01]: Underperforming perennially for the past three years they're industry by 1921 and 29% respectively.

[SPEAKER_01]: 2021 they actually underperform by 56%

[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue growth has crawled and actually revenue is fallen from December of 2022, 1.2 billion in revenue to 881 net income.

[SPEAKER_01]: Falling 15.1% year over year and they're still training at 32.9 times price to Ford looking earnings.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've been selling off assets, left and right their leadership team recently retired.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're paying a dividend consistently.

[SPEAKER_01]: but they haven't had a hike in a while and as was mentioned by the viewer, freeing trucking industry is essentially temperature sensitive ones.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're facing headwinds, weaker demand, rate pressures, capacity over supply, and that's why net income is falling.

[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue is down 7.1% year over year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, you look at this and say, okay, well the company doesn't have much debt in fact it has zero debt to speak of.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it's a small company, 750 million dollars.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's really going to be affected by rates, by volumes, and it can't necessarily control and smooth out that experience through cycles.

[SPEAKER_01]: So what you're missing is all this red that I can see here frankly.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so for now, I would stay away from Martin Transport, a lot of cyclical issues, but a lot of companies' specific issues as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for watching.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs.

[SPEAKER_01]: U.S. job market is showing renewed signs of strain, payroll processor reporting that firms were cutting more than 11,000 jobs per week through late October.

[SPEAKER_01]: Evidence that, well, maybe the labor market is slowing even more than we already thought it was.

[SPEAKER_01]: The October's overall job's count rose modestly by 42,000 ADPs weekly data reveal that hiring momentum has faltered a trend that understandably given what is going on with rates.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Federal Reserve is watching pretty darn closely as it debates what its next move will beat.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now the Richardson who is ADPs chief economist will set the job creation struggle to say consistent late in the month.

[SPEAKER_01]: Underscoring.

[SPEAKER_01]: This recovery, cross-industries, and it's something we can see too is pretty uneven.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so this data is understandably strengthening arguments from some metaphysicals that softer labor conditions justify another quarter point rate cut at the December meeting, which would be the third consecutive reduction.

[SPEAKER_01]: As we all know, the Fed has been relying pretty heavily on private data sources like ADP's report during the government shutdown, which has disrupted the release of official economics statistics.

[SPEAKER_01]: And at the same time, the seasonal job market, a crucial safety net for lower wage workers during the holidays, is the weakest it's been in over a decade.

[SPEAKER_01]: According to Challenger,

[SPEAKER_01]: have announced plans to hire just 372,000 seasonal workers this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sounds like a lot of that's down nearly 45% from 2024.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you lowest levels since 2012, companies that traditionally trumpet their holiday hiring plans like, yes, target, macy's quiet, many are already trimming staff after earlier layoffs.

[SPEAKER_01]: And at the same time, the number of people searching for holiday work, well that's up 27% year over year.

[SPEAKER_01]: While job postings are down 15.

[SPEAKER_01]: That creates intense intense, intense competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: As there are more people looking for jobs than jobs there that exist.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, this slow down reflects broader consumer caution only 11% of Americans expect their incomes to

[SPEAKER_01]: from last year, what does that mean?

[SPEAKER_01]: For markets, what does that mean for companies let alone the people who have to spend less because they are making less?

[SPEAKER_01]: And the government shutdown is amplifying that screen.

[SPEAKER_01]: Unpaid federal workers, delayed snap benefits.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's weighing on spending and foot traffic in stores ahead of the upcoming holiday season.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so what we're seeing in the mirror is a fragile economy where both employers and workers are trying to stretch every dollar headed into the holidays.

[SPEAKER_01]: And all this puts in an interesting backdrop.

[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly, if this vote in mind of already past the house, I'm not sure, but when the government reopens, we get public data.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully the picture becomes more clear as the Fed charts its path forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's keep things moving and rolling another colleague question now.

[SPEAKER_08]: Oh, I had a question about SIGs to resemble SIGS, Frank, Igloo, George, Sam.

[SPEAKER_08]: I'm was curious about this company.

[SPEAKER_08]: I'm thinking about maybe having a small position.

[SPEAKER_08]: They seem to have a pretty good growing revenue.

[SPEAKER_08]: They seem to be profitable.

[SPEAKER_08]: Very small company.

[SPEAKER_08]: My wife is a registered nurse.

[SPEAKER_08]: So she uses their close brand and she swears by it.

[SPEAKER_08]: So I'll just curious how much you think.

[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_08]: What was an interesting one?

[SPEAKER_01]: Figs.

[SPEAKER_01]: Take her F.I.G.S.

[SPEAKER_01]: is a direct consumer digitally native health care apparel and lifestyle brand.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they focus on designing and selling scrubs and related clothes for health care professionals.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, one of the recent drivers of probably the interest from the column side from the fact that they are day to day interacting with somebody that uses the product is a strong turnaround revenue growth and margin expansion following a period of pretty pretty slow growth it's most recent quarter actually marked it's best quarter in three years now after this march up up 55% year to date up 53% in the last year alone 102% in the past 52 weeks.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a $1.6 billion company, trading at some pretty high valuations, 83.3 times, price to four looking earnings, price to go to value about three and a half though, far more reasonable, price to cash to the 52 times, price to sales $2.7.

[SPEAKER_01]: So some conflicting signals on valuation concerns.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here, but growth is undeniably,

[SPEAKER_01]: Solid over the past five years, growing from 110 million in a revenue, 2019 to 589 million now, but it's also kind of slowed down quite a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Same time net income, kind of all over the place as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: 21.2 million in 2022, and 22 million then down to 2.7, projected to be 18.7 this upcoming year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I think the broader healthcare market, a paramarket that it is kind of shows a decent amount of opportunity.

[SPEAKER_01]: I saw that the recent estimate for 2024 was that it was about $208, or sorry, $98.6 billion.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that that could grow to 173.2 billion by 2034, and this could be a tailwind to companies like fix.

[SPEAKER_01]: But although growth is improving, you should probably be expecting a bit more here for these

[SPEAKER_01]: It's price to sales is higher than a lot of its peers.

[SPEAKER_01]: Implying that well there could be a limit to the margin of error that this company has.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so given its valuations,

[SPEAKER_01]: Given a less than long history of solid growth and the variability of net income, I think on figs I'm gonna have to pass.

[SPEAKER_01]: Takes to the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like we got a live call, Sammy and Sam Ritzis goes with me on AM 12, 20 of a question about meta.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and thanks for putting in the call.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, would like to get you a opinion on this talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Do you think this is a good time for me to get in because it's not just a drop.

[SPEAKER_00]: you know about 35 bucks or so, but maybe more in the last few weeks.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, all over the last month, meta is down 12.38% out 18% over the past three months.

[SPEAKER_01]: You did it about 7.1% up 7.53% in the past 52 weeks, so those of you who don't know, meta is meta platforms, formerly Facebook.

[SPEAKER_01]: And they've been a big, big, big spender in the AI

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the company outside from all the spending they've done on AI with their models, advertising.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're advertising segment remains the cash, cow, ad revenue growth is really what supports its core business, what they're doing in data centers and AI infrastructure, that's trying to position for the next wave of growth, but they're not really generating any money there.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've a ridiculously large user base that I think they've done a pretty solid job.

[SPEAKER_01]: of monetizing and in spite of their, you know, misstep early with the Metaverse.

[SPEAKER_01]: Overall, I think the company has done a solid job and it's product launching outside of its social networks.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think of the Meta glasses, the collaborations of three bands, soon to be product with Oakley's,

[SPEAKER_01]: And they're trading at about their average valuation over the past five years, 21.9 times, price of book about 8.2 times.

[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue growth up, 18.4% on an annual basis projected growth on 164.5 billion, 2024 to 19.4 and 25.

[SPEAKER_01]: So growth is solid.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think from a market structure perspective, you're starting to see a bit of worry.

[SPEAKER_01]: amongst a lot of these AI names, that the money's not coming in for what is being spent.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so as you're seeing a little bit of a rotation, I'd be hesitant to enter into this name.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, there's a reason why several occasions of the past couple weeks, breadth was positive.

[SPEAKER_01]: Equally, it was outperforming the S&P 500.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want to get caught on the wrong end of a big tech rotation.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why don't we make it two and a row?

[SPEAKER_01]: This one came in earlier, from 80 to 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: First, I'm going to call your mic from Florida.

[SPEAKER_02]: I have a question about a stock CWE and its clear way energy.

[SPEAKER_02]: Looking for some feedback on when you think a good buy-in point is for the stock.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm thinking that the energy is going to be a good space with all the AI and mining going on out there and just retailers are a good play in general.

[SPEAKER_02]: Would you see this as a long-term hold or a short-term hold?

[SPEAKER_02]: Your feedback from that's perspective would be much appreciated.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ticker at C, W-E-N is clear way energy they own and operate an acquire clean energy generation assets in the United States.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think wind, solar, as well as battery storage and natural gas dual fuel generation.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now with the past a couple of years, I really have the past year, they've been doing pretty darn well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Up 27% in the past 52 weeks, up 36.62% year-to-date was actually in line with its industry, slightly negative relative to its industry, actually.

[SPEAKER_01]: Over the past three months, up 21.10%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: $7 billion market cap company, so it is a mid-cap name with about $7 billion in debt.

[SPEAKER_01]: Something that, as I mentioned earlier, when you asked about debt and the question was asked about debt, is certainly what I would expect, which means, as rates come down, debt becomes cheaper, energy companies, specifically ones that are in the energy generation game.

[SPEAKER_01]: They may do a bit better because they finance their businesses with debt and it is easier for them to finance them in a lower interest rate environment.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here's my big concern, with this strong performance, it's training at 55.3 times price to earnings, about where the high of the past five years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's really, really darn expensive here.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do like the thinking, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about this in our AI webinar.

[SPEAKER_01]: The picks and shovels, the energy names, the industrial names, that is a good way to get exposure.

[SPEAKER_01]: But given its valuation, not a lot of margin for error here.

[SPEAKER_01]: that is, CWN Clearway Energy.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is Investock, I'm Lou Greau with one goal here to help you achieve your financial freedom.

[SPEAKER_01]: Our work continues after this break, our final breaks will get your questions in now, at 888-99-Chair.

[SPEAKER_06]: Tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Invest Talk on our YouTube channel, and they can leave their finance and investment questions anytime on 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: I love the show, I've been listening for years, it's been very informative.

[SPEAKER_09]: I have a question about waste management.

[SPEAKER_09]: WM has been a pretty solid non-cyclical industrial that I'd like to add, but it seems a little expensive.

[SPEAKER_09]: Can you give me an entry point on this?

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks so much.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'll listen on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_01]: Always management up 73 basis points year to date is the largest waste services company in North America.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they collect.

[SPEAKER_01]: They recycle.

[SPEAKER_01]: They dispose and landfills and have other environmental services solutions.

[SPEAKER_01]: They got a pretty wide mode.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're looking for businesses with wide modes.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is one of them because a lot of regulatory barriers, permit barriers.

[SPEAKER_01]: long-term contracts and difficulty getting some due geographical coverage.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now for a relative strength basis going back to 2019, doing doing pretty well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue, going solid as well, the slow down just a little bit in recent years, grown at 7.4% on an annual basis going back to 2019, net income up 10.5%.

[SPEAKER_01]: going back to 2019.

[SPEAKER_01]: As well, a net integral growth is solid over 10% nearly year over year from December 2024 to December 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: And with that in mind, I mean, it's trading in a price earnings of 24.4 times, which is below its average over the past five years.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a solid name.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's core business is stable, waste collection, disposal, disposal.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's relatively recession proof because it's an essential service.

[SPEAKER_01]: Growth and diversification is happening.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they got landfill, gas capture, recycling capacity.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they're investing in renewable energy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that could be a part of its future.

[SPEAKER_01]: Growth trajectory.

[SPEAKER_01]: And they got strong profitability as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that margin sitting around 12%.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, frankly, I don't see a lot of issues.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's trading high, but not crazy, high relative to where it's been.

[SPEAKER_01]: The waste and recycling business is pretty capital intensive, but at the same time, it freaks come down a bit while that becomes a bit cheaper.

[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly, there's execution risk on new growth areas and cost pressures as well, fuel trucking costs, labor issues, competitive pressures.

[SPEAKER_01]: That could all affect margins.

[SPEAKER_01]: Either way, though, if you're in this for the long haul, I think this is a pretty solid name, and these levels are a reasonable place to pick it up.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is waste management ink, ticker WM.

[SPEAKER_01]: Investors are dumping the bonds of U.S. tech giants as concerns grow that Silicon Valley's massive spending spree could spill over into credit markets.

[SPEAKER_01]: Debt from these hyper-scalers has come under pressure with yield rising to reflect.

[SPEAKER_01]: A little bit of unease from investors, the spread over treasures for this group of bonds has jumped 78 basis points, the highest level since April, not sharply from 50 basis points in September, rather jumped 278 basis points.

[SPEAKER_01]: This widening gap is signaling that investors are going to demand higher returns to hold tech debt.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're worried that AI expansion could lead to over capacity and long-term margin strain.

[SPEAKER_01]: In a way, the market kind of woke up to the reality that public markets, not just venture capital or private capital, we'll have to finance the $5 trillion dollar AI build out.

[SPEAKER_01]: And tech firms have been really tapping this market aggressively, meta-alphabet Oracle.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've issued tens of billions in long-term bonds to fund new data centers despite sitting on vast cash reserves.

[SPEAKER_01]: Met in particular.

[SPEAKER_01]: raised 27 billion privately to build its Hyperion Data Center in Louisiana, another 30 billion through a record-breaking bond sale, Alphabet, $25 billion bond issues split between the U.S. and Europe, while Oracle had a $18 billion sale in a September to help fund its infrastructure project.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Oracle's debt's been hit the hardest, down nearly 5% since mid-September.

[SPEAKER_01]: On leverage, could hurt their credit rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Smaller AI linked firms like Corrie, well, they're stumbling as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the cost of ensuring debt has surged almost 5%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now you can see this sell-off has healthy recalibration arguing that pricing in risk is normal.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the debt field race to build the future is only just beginning and investors should remain vigilant.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lou Greer, this completes another episode of Invest Talk, Justin and I thank you for listening.

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