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[SPEAKER_02]: All right, welcome back to another episode of the baseball America fantasy podcast is your host Jeff Ponce alongside me as always is my co-host up in the great white north still in white.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's going on doing how are you today, man?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Big things happen.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The hot stillves are already hot.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I hope so because it's snowed this week here in Toronto.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if it's snowed where you are.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We got some flakes.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, yeah, did not did not appreciate that kind of caught me by surprise.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, the hot stove is is percolating ready to sign a bunch of high profile.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Creations and hopefully the jays sign a bunch of those.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We'll see, man, I think they could spend some money.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's not out of the realm of possibility.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's some names out there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I've spent the week, making some calls, doing some work, getting ready to write some reports, a couple of the MPB imports that are coming over.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Not the greatest year of all time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Not as much hype as Sasaki, not as good as Yamamoto, not as good as Otani, but some interesting names, nonetheless, if you want to, we can talk some of those names.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Right now, we'll start with the, I think probably the most famous name of the player is coming over, and that is,

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[SPEAKER_02]: Fair amount of swinging miss.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Good on base though.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So he's sort of your classic three true outcome type of slugger.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He put up historic home run numbers in Japan.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It was bottom in the barrel swinging miss.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like I think it was bottom 3% tile in terms of his whiff numbers.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Um, he's like 99th percentile and chase rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So he's expanded all.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He walks a lot.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Um, you know, good variance between the swing rate and so like he does mitigate some of the risk when it comes to the swing and miss, but it's, it's an acquired taste.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I kind of wonder where he's going to end up in just how much money he's going to get.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Because, you know, there is a major concern here with the swing and miss the other part of it is he's a below average, maybe worse than that might be a 30 grade third baseman, it's pretty bad might be a DH, only guy.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So you're really gambling on the power here and adding.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, a potential cleanup number five, number six hitter that can slug 35 plus home runs, and maybe carry the team for weeks at the time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: At other times, he's going to slump really really hard.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't know if you've dug in on more a comment all if you have any thoughts.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know where to fall on this one because I can see the upside of the power playing even if it's bad, batting average, especially if you're in an OB peer of points league.

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[SPEAKER_02]: 5x5, he's a little more risky in that sense.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But a lot of it's going to depend on landing spot, type of parking.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That's like, let's just say perhaps, I don't think you will.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Let's say he lands in Cincinnati.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Well, that's kind of a great park in a pretty fun lineup, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's got some talent around him.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, if he ends up in St. Louis, I don't think he's going to end up in these places.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He ends up in St. Louis where, you know, he's the DH or whatever, I don't like that fit so much in the park and all that sort of thing.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's going to depend on some of that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It sounds like he's not a fit for the Dodgers and that they're not in on him.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to be really interested to see who is.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I know that Jay's have been a team that's come up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I guess I guess if they decide to

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[SPEAKER_02]: In the outfield, that potentially works but you can't play him at third base and I don't think you're sitting or any comments defense and all that sort of stuff.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Even though he's probably a more impactful offensive player, he's not going to have the defense and you're giving up quite a lot there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He may almost be better with Vlad.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So, going back to it, I don't know if you have any thoughts or more of Tommy.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's already been posted, so we should know within the next month and a half where he lands, it'll be interesting to, like I said, to see who is in fact in on him.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, didn't I see Eno maybe posting that like against high velocity is slash line was really bad.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm a bit scared.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think if I have like a first five FIP pick, I'd be worried

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[SPEAKER_00]: wasting or the potential of wasting that pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If I'm after five, I probably would do it because there is upside.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Sure.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, it's kind of like air claims that's my pd coming over time of idea for me, where.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There could be a lot of power, pretty good on base, but not point sure.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it was only 25.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I think one, like I did hear Eno's comments, I think he said something like 2 at 30.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I've talked to teams.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Nobody that's going to be in on him is going to go in at two years.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like you're going to buy this guy for five or six years.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I, and.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The evaluators, I've spoken with, I've spoken with some high level, executive type of positions, about this guy's that have traveled to Japan, guys that have seen these players 15 times.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I've talked to a few agents that have pitched to these guys as well.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I just, if you're buying this guy, you're expecting there to be,

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[SPEAKER_02]: and an adjustment period.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I've heard this from a lot of people just generally with Japanese players.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think you kind of see this as the case.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's an cultural period that needs to take place.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And some of that stuff,

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[SPEAKER_02]: Sells itself out.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Some guys are better at handling it than other guys are.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think you need to factor all that in, but you even look at Show Hayo Tani.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The best Show Hayo Tani we got years after that initial debut.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It was a better picture than he was a hitter.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Right when he initially came over, we look at those numbers.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They're not even in line with the guy that we've seen the last few years.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think Sangha was kind of the opposite where you had a lot of success and then guys kind of figured about a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Naga had some success, but these were older, you know, develop players, which will get into a my and an akamoto who are a little bit older.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think those guys, especially if they're like in their prime 27 28 29.

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[SPEAKER_02]: the settle in a little bit easier.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But even Yamamoto as good as he is, I mean, amazing, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: We're just coming off this historic performance in October where he wins the world series in P.P.E.

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[SPEAKER_02]: His initial like eight starts, nine starts, members a lot of discourse around the fastball quality and he made some adjustments and he figured it out.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I think that's all

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[SPEAKER_02]: If they're good initially, that's great.

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[SPEAKER_02]: More calming, I think, is one where he could be hitting like 190, come May 15th, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: With some home run, but the batting average could be bad.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He could be striking out 35% of the time or something like that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And then things start to turn.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He figures some stuff out.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I've heard some debate on can a team fix the holes in the swing or not.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Some people think no, it's just part of the package you got to deal with it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's almost like Joey Gallo.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But he doesn't have the supporting skills at Joey Gallo, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Others think, no, I think you get him into the right hitting environment.

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[SPEAKER_02]: These guys could make some tweaks and get him to more contact, Kevin, you know, a more consistent swing in the zone.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's a little bit more adjustable.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Some of it just sounds like it's timing issues.

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[SPEAKER_02]: JJ was kind of talking about this.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think,

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[SPEAKER_02]: With the 95 plus stat, the issue there is like you just don't see it as much over there has only a handful of guys to throw it and he's got that speed so I think that's just the timing adjustment like it's like kids when they jump up from one level to another in little league right.

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[SPEAKER_02]: from minors to the majors in your town and all of a sudden, guys are throw in 50 plus miles an hour or whatever it is.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, guys eventually make an adjustment.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It just takes a little time, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Timing is a big issue is the biggest part of hitting being on time and making sure you're moved times up well and syncs with the with the picture and yada yada yada.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think I think it will hit fastballs.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I don't I don't worry about that as

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[SPEAKER_02]: And even over there, of course, you're seeing guys that are great pronators, you see great sputters, change ups over there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You got beat up by change ups and offs beat a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that could be a little bit of a concern.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So he's not number one for me and FYPD.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think

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[SPEAKER_02]: We have a rank five right now.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If you preferred going with DAX, kill beer steel hall, totally understand that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You want to go Eli Will, let's over him.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I kind of understand that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: When you get the Seth Hernandez or Aver Arquette like, I think Seth Hernandez is a phenomenal talent in a real life scenario.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm very excited about him.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's still a prep pitcher and it takes those guys a really long time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, more economy might be at the end of his contract by the time Seth Hernandez is in a snap rotation.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And that's just on the average as it takes five to six years, even the good ones it's four years.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's no prep pitchers that are coming up in two years.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It just it doesn't happen.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, and if they do like Andrew Painer, they end up getting injured or Ricky Painer, who is a Juico guy, we thought was going to move quick.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He ends up getting injured.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I think that's all kind of baked into the risk there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk about the guy that I think is actually the number one in FYPD

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[SPEAKER_00]: I was just going to say one last thing is that Zips has my recovery at a 1 26 WRC plus so Zips believes and if he's a 1 26 WRC plus then you definitely should be taking him top five so I think it's it's like a window thing if you're far away, you know, go like will it's like as you were saying or if you're like competing then you know you'd get someone who's going to make it impact in the major leagues.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So go ahead you're your number one guy coming over.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well, and I I understand that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Do you sort of feel before we go into the next game?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Do you sort of feel that sometimes like the MLEs that they do from Japan to the major leagues are a little, little positive, little rosy?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like remember the Yoshida one where like the skills I think more or less translated the power did not what they had if I remember for him like power numbers were probably like 60 or 70 points higher in his slugging percentage and I think we've ever seen from.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think there is some adjustment there and I just I don't know if we've seen a guy like more economy so I don't know if there's a direct translation because we haven't seen a lot of Japanese players at swinging miss like this.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It seems pretty good on the pitchers, like Sangha, yeah, even now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, great.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's great, so those were times later.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Great.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's a perfect segue for me to wax poetic about Tetsuya, oh my.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I want to make sure I get it right.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Tetsuya, oh my.

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[SPEAKER_02]: that is TATSU-Y-A-I-M-A-I for those listening that haven't read about this guy haven't seen the name before.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Put him into your FYPD list.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We didn't have him on the top 500.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to be posted.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I believe I know November 18th is what was announced today.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So he'll be

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's probably going to be like my 36, 37 best rank prospect, but put some direct we behind Marcel and Maya, Roki Sasaki.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's a few years older than Roki.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We're not totally throwing the baby out with a bathwater.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We think there are some opportunities here, particularly in the Dodgers organization.

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[SPEAKER_02]: for rookie to get right, especially with the full off season.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it was a weird year for him.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They obviously go into the whole process of coming over here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's always some cultural translation like we talk about.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So it's still very young.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's still three years younger than a my.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That said, Dylan, I don't know if you saw the my dad that I had posted earlier today, it's pretty fun.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's undersized right hander, five foot 11 is what he's listed at.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But he uses that to good use.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's a really low-sarm slot, not quite Sardon, side arm, but it's probably about as low over three quarters, slot, as you could have.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's a five-foot release height.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Five-foot, and it's heavy, heavy spin efficiency.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't generate a lot of vert.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's like 13 to 15 inches of induced vertical break with like,

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[SPEAKER_02]: 12 to 15 inches of arm side.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So it's a funky shaped fastball because of how low as arm slot is, how low as release height is, but because of that weird orientations like a 2PM sort of access, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: gets a ton of spin efficiency on it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So it moves really funky, sits 95 to 96.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We'll touch, you know, 97 to 99 miles an hour.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's got serious heat.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's a really unique fastball.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's almost like right handed gauge jump with the arm slots kind of slower than that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So it's even different than that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a really interesting slider as well, Dylan.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Slider sits E586 to like 87.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You'll see it at 88, even 89 miles an hour at times.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So gyroslider, because of the arm slot, it kind of comes in sweepy and then down shifts.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, try your savages slider.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't move.

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[SPEAKER_02]: glove side very much, if ever.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So it has predominantly arm side movement.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So when you look at it's like a 1.8 induced vertical break negative 2.3 horizontal.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a 39% chase rate on that pitch.

14:54.361 --> 14:57.084
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a 51% swing rate on that pitch.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a 46% swing strike rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a, excuse me, a swing and miss rate, or whiff rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's got an inzone whiff rate of 25% against that pitch.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It is a filthy pitch.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's very unique.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I wouldn't be shocked if he's throwing that thing.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So in the 30% of the time in Japan, he may throw it even more over here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I saw the data and I looked and I'm like oh yeah 86 miles an hour.

15:21.032 --> 15:21.533
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a nice.

15:21.753 --> 15:22.475
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a nice slider.

15:22.495 --> 15:25.180
[SPEAKER_00]: I did not catch it all that it's arms on it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I thought that was glove size.

15:26.302 --> 15:33.376
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's a little bullet slider, but it's like no, no, it's like I'll have you log into some synergy after this and take a look at some of the video.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It is a filthy pitch and then he mixes a split.

15:37.825 --> 15:40.329
[SPEAKER_02]: I know when some of the data has missed change up and split.

15:40.389 --> 15:44.035
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a splitter heavy arm side run on that splitter.

15:44.075 --> 16:04.288
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's a true splitter, you know, somewhere between 13 to 16 inches of arm side run on that sucker at 8584, you know, almost three degrees separation off of the VA, something that was said to me by a few different people that have scouted in mind.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He located a lot with a fastball low in his own.

16:08.564 --> 16:14.452
[SPEAKER_02]: So that 4.2 VA and that fastball actually plays up when it's an upper third VA.

16:14.652 --> 16:18.657
[SPEAKER_02]: It's one of the reasons that he has a lot of chases because when he does throw it up high, he gets a lot of chase swings.

16:19.118 --> 16:24.064
[SPEAKER_02]: Guys, the flutter swings overall in Japan is a little better at the high fastball.

16:24.084 --> 16:27.188
[SPEAKER_02]: 20% swing and miss, I actually think,

16:28.079 --> 16:33.727
[SPEAKER_02]: Some of those, he's not going to miss a ton of bats to the fastball, but she don't kind of in the big leagues any longer anyway.

16:33.747 --> 16:40.176
[SPEAKER_02]: Unless you're throwing it at 99 to 101 with 17 to 21 inches a ride, right?

16:40.196 --> 16:43.020
[SPEAKER_02]: Like if you're in that range or the ton of heat, like it pretty much works.

16:43.040 --> 16:57.360
[SPEAKER_02]: But I actually think by changing his plan of attack and having him work the top of the zone more, worked that wipe out slider, he might be able to generate some more whiffs than he was before

16:57.577 --> 16:59.922
[SPEAKER_02]: It's three above average pitches or better.

17:00.643 --> 17:02.467
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I think it's in above average splitter.

17:03.890 --> 17:05.975
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, got decent numbers against it.

17:06.396 --> 17:07.538
[SPEAKER_02]: You can throw it for strikes.

17:07.718 --> 17:09.081
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's a plus slider.

17:09.442 --> 17:11.025
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe you can go plus plus on it.

17:11.507 --> 17:15.535
[SPEAKER_02]: I've had people put a 70 on the fastball and I think magically,

17:16.038 --> 17:18.020
[SPEAKER_02]: You could probably go that far.

17:18.081 --> 17:24.809
[SPEAKER_02]: You could maybe go plus because of the lack of swing and miss and I want to see the attack plan change are probably going to go 55 on it.

17:26.191 --> 17:28.073
[SPEAKER_02]: The command ticked up a little bit last year.

17:28.133 --> 17:31.157
[SPEAKER_02]: It was kind of an issue for them previously.

17:32.899 --> 17:39.567
[SPEAKER_02]: But overall in his career, it's like a 4.4 walk per nine.

17:39.807 --> 17:41.910
[SPEAKER_02]: It was 2.5 last year.

17:42.278 --> 17:54.720
[SPEAKER_02]: 3.6 the year before 4.1 so it's been progressively getting better and he'll be 28 next year turns 28 May.

17:54.740 --> 17:59.789
[SPEAKER_02]: Kind of an interesting guy he's got a lot of swagger to it's going to be a fun one to follow.

17:59.829 --> 18:05.900
[SPEAKER_02]: Think a little bit more of a loud personality maybe than some of the other Japanese players that have come all for us.

18:06.120 --> 18:06.160
[UNKNOWN]: So

18:06.325 --> 18:08.048
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I'm really excited for him.

18:08.248 --> 18:11.453
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's my number one and FYPD and Dylan.

18:11.533 --> 18:12.654
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to make the case here.

18:13.355 --> 18:17.622
[SPEAKER_02]: There is nobody in this FYPD that just shouts number one, right?

18:18.744 --> 18:22.990
[SPEAKER_02]: K and I recently am doil Jojo Parker all guys that I've seen in number one.

18:23.030 --> 18:23.691
[SPEAKER_02]: We're a comedy.

18:23.711 --> 18:24.592
[SPEAKER_02]: Somebody I've seen in number one.

18:24.612 --> 18:26.655
[SPEAKER_02]: We've talked about why we wouldn't take more a comment.

18:26.675 --> 18:30.761
[SPEAKER_02]: Number one and then it's like like I said, Dax, Kilbee, steel hall.

18:30.942 --> 18:31.823
[SPEAKER_02]: Are you an Eli Will?

18:31.843 --> 18:32.164
[SPEAKER_02]: It's guys.

18:32.184 --> 18:33.445
[SPEAKER_02]: Some people want to go one on Will.

18:33.465 --> 18:35.168
[SPEAKER_02]: It's I'm not willing to go there.

18:36.582 --> 18:44.013
[SPEAKER_02]: Seth Hernandez, Avar Kent, like, this to me is at least like, I know this is like a mid-rotation outcome.

18:44.533 --> 18:52.725
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm plugging this guy in immediately and for the next three to four years, he's probably my fantasy number three or my number four.

18:54.047 --> 18:58.453
[SPEAKER_02]: There was a draft like this years ago that had like Jonathan India and a couple other guys.

18:58.513 --> 18:59.755
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a bad draft year.

18:59.795 --> 19:05.323
[SPEAKER_02]: If we go back and

19:05.776 --> 19:35.766
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... you say cacoochi came over that year and i remember that it was in prospects live met Thompson and i do in the fy pd and we rank cacoochi won and people kind of push back and like grand it wasn't great the first year this guy's better than cacoochi but at the same time you look back on that and you're like yeah that was probably the best fantasy asset for the next five years that came out of that fy pd at least at least it was in the conversation for the top five so you know i think you just take the i think you just take the money here in run with it

19:35.881 --> 19:38.665
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's number one, he's going to sign for a good amount of money.

19:38.725 --> 19:40.007
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got interesting weapons.

19:40.108 --> 19:42.091
[SPEAKER_02]: We know there's a starting pitcher track record.

19:42.131 --> 19:52.347
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to get starts, you know, granted like if he signs in a bad park, that's not great, but I don't know.

19:52.807 --> 19:55.431
[SPEAKER_02]: It's an interesting profile with good stuff.

19:56.032 --> 19:58.135
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it could really work.

19:58.917 --> 20:04.285
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think there could be more strikeouts here than we may be even anticipate that there's maybe a way for him to

20:04.855 --> 20:05.837
[SPEAKER_02]: unlock some stuff.

20:05.857 --> 20:12.712
[SPEAKER_02]: I've had some teams say because he does throw a curve ball if you see that had like 25 and 26 or RPMs like nine inches a sweep.

20:13.614 --> 20:15.458
[SPEAKER_02]: He can sweep it obviously.

20:15.538 --> 20:17.582
[SPEAKER_02]: He can move it glove side.

20:18.018 --> 20:25.165
[SPEAKER_02]: Somebody could maybe add like a bridge sweeper like in the lower 80s just to kind of play off of that slider and the fastball, etc.

20:25.205 --> 20:26.787
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see what happens.

20:27.548 --> 20:32.072
[SPEAKER_02]: I have them as my number one, Dylan, I do really like a mind.

20:32.413 --> 20:42.523
[SPEAKER_02]: So we just spent like 10 minutes talking about a mind I don't know if you have any closing thoughts here or like where you fall on the one and F like PD conversation.

20:43.145 --> 20:55.146
[SPEAKER_00]: I would take number one, maybe I'm not the like the litmus test because usually I'm competing and so I want guys, we're going to make an impact immediately.

20:55.186 --> 21:06.807
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would take the like high sun cam and delete those type of guys that I think are going to be in the majors soon

21:06.955 --> 21:12.083
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'm at the right person to ask, but you might have been my number one, I think, because I think it's sled duck.

21:12.103 --> 21:13.365
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be in a rotation.

21:14.467 --> 21:20.076
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be better than like, so God, no, for example, like I kind of have him in the like, yeah, way better.

21:21.458 --> 21:24.222
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not remote to it's not autonomy.

21:24.910 --> 21:34.260
[SPEAKER_02]: but I think it's right on the level with like Sangha and some of these other guys that we've seen come over in Managa and had some success.

21:34.441 --> 21:37.164
[SPEAKER_02]: It might be in like a better version of Managa, honestly.

21:37.284 --> 21:41.428
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, he's really interesting, really good mover.

21:41.488 --> 21:44.131
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm in for it.

21:44.211 --> 21:51.880
[SPEAKER_02]: Other guys that I wanted to mention here as well, we'll get him into the rankings for prospects when those go out.

21:52.687 --> 21:57.574
[SPEAKER_02]: And actually, he might sneak into the first base third or third base rankings.

21:57.594 --> 22:04.544
[SPEAKER_02]: He's more of a first baseman, Kazumu, excuse me, Kazuma, Akamoto, okay.

22:04.925 --> 22:07.969
[SPEAKER_02]: A, M, O, T, O.

22:08.690 --> 22:09.852
[SPEAKER_02]: He's older.

22:10.237 --> 22:18.455
[SPEAKER_02]: Another storage slugger has had seasons at 33, 33, 31, 31, 39, 30, 41 home runs in his career.

22:18.495 --> 22:19.878
[SPEAKER_02]: Home runs are down a little bit.

22:19.898 --> 22:24.769
[SPEAKER_02]: He was injured last year, but did hit 3, 27, 4, 16, 5, 9, 8.

22:24.867 --> 22:27.613
[SPEAKER_02]: he strikes out a lot less than more coming.

22:27.833 --> 22:29.096
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a very good defender.

22:29.136 --> 22:31.961
[SPEAKER_02]: I've even heard 70 grades at first base.

22:33.044 --> 22:41.661
[SPEAKER_02]: Not that first base defense is going to get you in the lineup, but he seems like a set it and forget it first base and that can maybe come over here hit 270 with

22:41.641 --> 22:50.021
[SPEAKER_02]: 18 to 24 home runs and drive in some runs and you know be at a solid number four and number five hitter for like a mid-market sort of team.

22:50.722 --> 22:51.945
[SPEAKER_02]: I've pitched it before.

22:51.965 --> 22:54.090
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the pirate should go after this guy.

22:54.110 --> 22:57.979
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this guy would be the perfect guy for the pirates to take a chance on.

22:57.959 --> 23:02.546
[SPEAKER_02]: and give a decent money to but not break the bank money and you might actually get some upside.

23:03.227 --> 23:07.794
[SPEAKER_02]: I posted his data to, I don't know if you just look at it, the skills are really good.

23:07.934 --> 23:11.079
[SPEAKER_02]: Like it's a good balance of patience and approach.

23:11.139 --> 23:12.441
[SPEAKER_02]: You swings in zone a lot.

23:12.882 --> 23:16.187
[SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't chase a lot but the swing rate was like in the high 40s.

23:16.977 --> 23:20.723
[SPEAKER_02]: really pretty good contact, especially really good contact for a power hitter.

23:21.124 --> 23:25.532
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's like maybe 55, sort of EVs.

23:25.572 --> 23:30.100
[SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't have any crazy high end EVs, but like the average is really good.

23:30.640 --> 23:38.294
[SPEAKER_02]: He kind of like from a skills perspective, reminded me of like a Kyle Manzardo, sort of profile a little bit, right?

23:38.694 --> 23:42.040
[SPEAKER_02]: Where doesn't have a high end EVs, but like his,

23:42.020 --> 23:51.331
[SPEAKER_02]: Seven is like 50th percentile to like 90th percentile EVs are all really, really high and like he stacks, you know, a lot of bad at balls and those those buckets.

23:52.713 --> 23:53.173
[SPEAKER_02]: Good angle.

23:53.473 --> 24:01.042
[SPEAKER_02]: It's recently hitting at 90 plus he's just not going to hit a one 14, you know, and some of that is because of the play to approach and the contact skills.

24:01.263 --> 24:03.966
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think this guy could translate a little bit.

24:04.086 --> 24:10.153
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this is another sneaky guy that maybe I'm taking top 10 NFY PD.

24:10.454 --> 24:14.660
[SPEAKER_02]: doesn't have maybe the upside to the long term, value of more economy.

24:15.301 --> 24:18.747
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I'd rather have him than more economy for the next two years, though.

24:18.767 --> 24:19.808
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if that's crazy or not.

24:19.908 --> 24:26.238
[SPEAKER_02]: It may be more economy may come over and hit 40 home runs, but I kind of feel it.

24:26.258 --> 24:30.825
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're in a redraft, this is the guy I would want to have of my team not more economy.

24:32.375 --> 24:40.346
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we were, I mean, a couple of PCs, and I had a moto ahead of Morcomi, but they went earlier than I was hoping.

24:40.587 --> 24:51.462
[SPEAKER_00]: But for exactly what you're saying, kind of seem safer, kind of feels like a higher floor, 15-18 homeruns, like that'll be a solid little third basement or first place in the library land.

24:51.482 --> 24:55.427
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I like it for safety, you know, FIPD.

24:55.487 --> 25:00.314
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I like to take swings too, as much as I say, compete in my FIPDs.

25:00.334 --> 25:02.297
[SPEAKER_00]: I also like that one upside

25:02.581 --> 25:09.418
[SPEAKER_00]: If I don't have a guy who's going to make an immediate impact, so I might have more a comment ahead of both a motto and an F like PD, but in a redraft, I think I'm like a local motto.

25:10.192 --> 25:10.733
[SPEAKER_02]: There we go.

25:10.773 --> 25:14.137
[SPEAKER_02]: We just talked three of the top Japanese free agents.

25:14.778 --> 25:24.731
[SPEAKER_02]: There's also Kona Takahashi, who's coming over, who's an older pitcher, probably going to be like a long reliever or like a number five starter kind of one of those guys.

25:24.751 --> 25:27.054
[SPEAKER_02]: He should have come over a few years ago didn't get posted.

25:27.515 --> 25:28.837
[SPEAKER_02]: He's at Sabu Lion.

25:28.897 --> 25:34.444
[SPEAKER_02]: I think alongside my and I've heard from people that they kind of learned their lesson with the

25:34.424 --> 25:40.514
[SPEAKER_02]: with Taka Hashi that they didn't post them early enough and we left some money in the tables.

25:40.534 --> 25:42.136
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's why they're they're posting them.

25:43.198 --> 25:45.361
[SPEAKER_02]: So that said we come back.

25:45.401 --> 25:48.767
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to talk a little bit about our catcher rankings and go from there.

25:49.087 --> 25:50.830
[SPEAKER_02]: But we're going to take quick break first.

25:52.885 --> 25:58.393
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, and we are back, baseball America fantasy podcast, Jeff Ponce, Dylan White.

25:58.413 --> 26:03.461
[SPEAKER_02]: We just talked about three different Japanese players coming over from the MPD.

26:03.901 --> 26:09.730
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that are all fantasy relevant, FYPD relevant, depending upon the rules in your league.

26:09.997 --> 26:18.801
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe in a later episode, we'll talk about some of the guys that Cody Ponce and some of these other guys that are coming back over that could be interesting and fantasy relevant.

26:18.861 --> 26:20.205
[SPEAKER_02]: I like Cody Ponce a lot.

26:20.927 --> 26:23.955
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's not just because we're.

26:26.804 --> 26:55.107
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh

26:56.082 --> 26:58.047
[SPEAKER_02]: the greatest catching season of all time.

26:58.328 --> 27:01.195
[SPEAKER_02]: So we have to talk about any further.

27:01.215 --> 27:02.578
[SPEAKER_02]: He's never won going into the next year.

27:02.739 --> 27:10.759
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if I'm going to want to pay the Cal Rally price, but it's a little more on catcher.

27:10.779 --> 27:11.982
[SPEAKER_02]: There's no debate, right Dylan?

27:12.957 --> 27:19.705
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, definitely not a bait maybe the only question is whether you'll have the batting average he had last year.

27:19.745 --> 27:26.112
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously he was like a 220 hitter for his career up until last year.

27:26.132 --> 27:28.374
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's probably going to be regression back down.

27:29.355 --> 27:39.707
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, if you're going to have 40 to 60 home runs from the catcher position that's that's more than valuable.

27:40.565 --> 27:43.028
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but pretty easy there.

27:43.068 --> 27:45.031
[SPEAKER_02]: Number just run out of the top five.

27:45.091 --> 27:46.894
[SPEAKER_02]: Number two, we won't say me with the silo.

27:46.914 --> 27:49.077
[SPEAKER_02]: Number three, William Contreras.

27:49.137 --> 27:50.118
[SPEAKER_02]: Number four, Ben Rice.

27:50.158 --> 27:52.101
[SPEAKER_02]: Number five, Shay Langlears.

27:52.261 --> 27:55.105
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think we have to spend any time on Contreras or Shay Langlears.

27:55.145 --> 27:56.607
[SPEAKER_02]: You had a great ride up in Langlears.

27:57.188 --> 27:57.909
[SPEAKER_02]: Had a great season.

27:57.969 --> 27:59.651
[SPEAKER_02]: He's had two really good seasons in a row.

27:59.711 --> 28:02.455
[SPEAKER_02]: Skills have been tracking up.

28:02.435 --> 28:13.189
[SPEAKER_02]: as long as well with the power and he's in a great park and improving lineup when contraris has been one of the most consistent performers even when he's down a little bit ahead of the industry or still somebody that we believe in.

28:13.710 --> 28:16.093
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll talk a little bit about the silo at number two.

28:16.414 --> 28:25.506
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously his very small sample

28:25.486 --> 28:33.606
[SPEAKER_02]: was chasing at a much higher rate than we'd like to see, um, it was just weeks after his 21st birthday.

28:34.408 --> 28:40.322
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, this was a guy that hit 79 home runs before the age of 21 in the minor leagues.

28:41.939 --> 28:42.901
[SPEAKER_02]: phenomenal talent.

28:43.562 --> 28:50.434
[SPEAKER_02]: I just believe in the combination of Pats of ballability and power here and good angles.

28:51.115 --> 28:53.980
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think the plate skills will tick up a little bit.

28:54.581 --> 28:56.565
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not terribly concerned that that's going to sink them.

28:56.585 --> 29:02.235
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that chase rate that was like over 40% will probably tick more to like 33-34.

29:02.255 --> 29:06.462
[SPEAKER_02]: These are bigger guy, longer levers.

29:06.745 --> 29:15.136
[SPEAKER_02]: there's some level of chase on the shadow zone where he's getting it stended on those balls and I really don't mind him putting it on those.

29:17.339 --> 29:28.194
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's perennial, meaning last couple of years because he's has been in the miners that long, perennial, robots get like top prospect to see so young young for the level.

29:28.254 --> 29:34.322
[SPEAKER_00]: It's for huge power, contacts not so bad either.

29:34.302 --> 29:36.184
[SPEAKER_00]: all the angle stuff's good.

29:36.204 --> 29:38.187
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, it's the chase is a bit high.

29:38.247 --> 29:41.932
[SPEAKER_00]: The the contact is average, but he's only 21.

29:44.035 --> 29:51.044
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the peak projection that Robusco gives is like 35 home runs like 1 35 WRC plus like it's ridiculous.

29:51.104 --> 29:53.267
[SPEAKER_00]: So hit hit for power.

29:53.307 --> 30:02.959
[SPEAKER_00]: I kind of, you know, I see like a, like

30:03.597 --> 30:12.512
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see like 275 batting average in his peak years and hopefully stays behind the plate because he's got a pretty good hose for an arm too.

30:13.593 --> 30:22.388
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think he'll catch enough, right, like I think that one of the benefits of this being baked in is like Adley's there a few more years.

30:23.149 --> 30:28.558
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he's going to catch enough to rest Adley Sundays, maybe he plays a little first base, plays a little DH.

30:29.602 --> 30:32.749
[SPEAKER_02]: Neo-Pacile plain a little first base plain a little dh.

30:32.769 --> 30:33.671
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's already set up.

30:33.731 --> 30:37.980
[SPEAKER_02]: I would imagine that Mount Castle, if they can, probably gets moved this season.

30:38.000 --> 30:41.708
[SPEAKER_02]: They keep them around as some depth that's needed.

30:42.129 --> 30:44.995
[SPEAKER_02]: The other one I want to talk to you about is Ben Rice.

30:46.004 --> 30:48.227
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a pretty phenomenal season.

30:48.247 --> 30:52.774
[SPEAKER_02]: He is a strong side platoon bat, so there are some concerns there.

30:52.814 --> 30:57.521
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a chance to take the reins off a little bit more and he sees more production.

30:58.062 --> 31:04.231
[SPEAKER_02]: He was one of the most dangerous hitters in that lineup throughout the season and had a really, really good year.

31:04.291 --> 31:08.037
[SPEAKER_02]: He's another guy that hit them like a full-time catcher.

31:08.738 --> 31:13.986
[SPEAKER_02]: So, baking in the,

31:14.641 --> 31:23.773
[SPEAKER_02]: Limited amount of wear and tear, right, that he's going to see is not going to be exposed to that wear and tear as much as other players are.

31:23.939 --> 31:32.615
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that does boost the value a little bit for me and, you know, this is a guy that had a sub 20% strikeout rate hit 26 home runs.

31:33.297 --> 31:35.461
[SPEAKER_02]: It's very, very repeatable.

31:36.262 --> 31:38.707
[SPEAKER_02]: The batting average could even come up a little bit.

31:38.767 --> 31:42.554
[SPEAKER_02]: He was actually a little bit unlucky on balls and play plays in a great ballpark.

31:42.574 --> 31:45.880
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that.

31:45.995 --> 31:52.484
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he hits 30 homeruns and bats 275 next year with really good counting stats.

31:53.245 --> 31:55.788
[SPEAKER_02]: He had 74 runs this year 65 RBI's.

31:56.589 --> 32:00.554
[SPEAKER_02]: It could be 80 and 80 next year and it could exceed those numbers even.

32:01.055 --> 32:04.159
[SPEAKER_02]: I kind of want to attach myself to this train over the next three years.

32:04.680 --> 32:09.606
[SPEAKER_02]: It's big left-handed power and that plays in Yankees Stadium.

32:10.902 --> 32:18.213
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so a couple of things like you touched on in the bassoil thing if he's playing a lot of first base, but retains catch eligibility.

32:18.233 --> 32:18.954
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the dream.

32:19.494 --> 32:24.041
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's going to get, you know, the 500 plus played appearances, but stay as a catcher.

32:24.081 --> 32:25.383
[SPEAKER_00]: So you can put him in that slot.

32:25.403 --> 32:26.144
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what you want.

32:27.025 --> 32:35.498
[SPEAKER_00]: Cashman today November 12th said, and maybe this is a bluff to like get a good price on some free agents for first base.

32:35.538 --> 32:39.964
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's head today that Ben Rice is going to be full

32:40.231 --> 32:45.997
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, whether that's taken with a great insult or not, but they intend to play them a lot.

32:46.097 --> 33:04.197
[SPEAKER_00]: So everything you said, but like with a ceiling of maybe he got 600 plate appearances, so you could see 30 home runs, good OVP, two Saturday batting average, short porching, IQ, stadium, great, great line up, et cetera, with catalogibility, it's kind of everything you want.

33:06.809 --> 33:14.170
[SPEAKER_02]: I think one of the things that needs to be said to is like, here 255 batting average, here to 299, like,

33:14.690 --> 33:16.091
[SPEAKER_02]: expected batting average.

33:16.492 --> 33:17.933
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a 499 slug.

33:17.973 --> 33:20.916
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a 581 expected slug.

33:21.356 --> 33:28.804
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a good season and his expected numbers were even better than what he had good season numbers were.

33:29.484 --> 33:32.627
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the kind of guy that you want to buy into, right?

33:33.148 --> 33:34.729
[SPEAKER_02]: Like that's signal.

33:35.070 --> 33:37.913
[SPEAKER_02]: That's telling me that, okay, this is repeatable.

33:38.473 --> 33:43.498
[SPEAKER_02]: And this is something that you can project into next season and say,

33:44.339 --> 33:50.349
[SPEAKER_02]: So for the questions around Ben Rice, I think that's one of the reasons that we did that.

33:50.990 --> 33:53.034
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if there's anybody else here in the top 10.

33:53.354 --> 33:57.301
[SPEAKER_02]: I was going to let you maybe wax poetic a little bit about Augustine Ramirez.

33:57.581 --> 33:58.342
[SPEAKER_02]: That's your guy.

33:58.363 --> 34:10.583
[SPEAKER_02]: Another guy that might not see full-time that bats at catcher, but could see a lot of it bats getting some DH, I think some first base as well.

34:11.035 --> 34:16.681
[SPEAKER_02]: Talk to me a little bit about Ramirez because I know there's some some numbers in here, in particular, you kind of owned in on.

34:18.022 --> 34:23.588
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so he's 23 hitting the middle of the batting line up and he had 21 home runs 16 stolen faces.

34:23.868 --> 34:26.070
[SPEAKER_00]: So 21 15.

34:28.413 --> 34:31.195
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe 20 20 so you're getting stolen bases from a catcher.

34:31.896 --> 34:34.499
[SPEAKER_00]: He's young so he's going to quote unquote improve on that.

34:35.299 --> 34:39.844
[SPEAKER_00]: All looks excellent in and Andy, but you know under the hood.

34:39.824 --> 34:52.618
[SPEAKER_00]: Like that's the positive and it's incredibly globally positive under the hood he swooned in the second half his WRC plus dropped from like above under it above average to like 76.

34:53.324 --> 34:58.256
[SPEAKER_00]: His defense is actually quite bad, so whether he retains the catch eligibility.

34:58.276 --> 34:59.018
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure.

34:59.078 --> 35:00.321
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm worried.

35:00.842 --> 35:04.772
[SPEAKER_00]: He may get it like he may qualify in 206.

35:05.594 --> 35:11.248
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably it's pretty likely he will but 27 and beyond I don't know because Joe Mack was a very good defensive.

35:11.228 --> 35:14.653
[SPEAKER_00]: catcher also pretty good hitter is probably going to get a lot of it bats there.

35:15.956 --> 35:17.458
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's why I kind of brought them back.

35:17.498 --> 35:31.400
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you might wonder a guy who has 2020 ability great power young hitting a little line up like that's like arrows out arrows up but you know there's some on the horizon in the future maybe there's going to be some some some gray clouds.

35:31.821 --> 35:36.949
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what we kind of bit a bit risk of earths and and consider who approach and put them at number six.

35:38.212 --> 35:46.329
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, um, other guy that we weren't risk a verse on because I was placed in the prospects, Dylan, you can yell at him about the MLB guys.

35:47.671 --> 35:49.074
[SPEAKER_02]: I talked about a little bit last week.

35:49.094 --> 35:51.900
[SPEAKER_02]: We have ring or whatever he does at eight.

35:52.150 --> 35:54.112
[SPEAKER_02]: I just really believe in the skills here, man.

35:54.212 --> 35:57.697
[SPEAKER_02]: There just are not a lot of guys that have this level of power.

35:57.977 --> 36:01.481
[SPEAKER_02]: These kind of angles, this kind of played approach, and that kind of contact.

36:01.621 --> 36:03.864
[SPEAKER_02]: And then it immediately works when it comes to state side.

36:04.305 --> 36:06.908
[SPEAKER_02]: Like he destroyed the Florida Complex League.

36:06.928 --> 36:08.690
[SPEAKER_02]: So they had to move him up to Palm Beach.

36:09.150 --> 36:10.612
[SPEAKER_02]: Took him a couple of weeks to settle in.

36:10.913 --> 36:15.458
[SPEAKER_02]: And then eventually he destroyed the Florida State League, which is one of the hardest places to hit.

36:15.438 --> 36:16.682
[SPEAKER_02]: in the minor leagues.

36:16.802 --> 36:17.966
[SPEAKER_02]: It is a terrible place.

36:18.006 --> 36:19.170
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a marine layer there.

36:19.230 --> 36:20.233
[SPEAKER_02]: The air is really heavy.

36:21.096 --> 36:22.159
[SPEAKER_02]: The ball doesn't travel.

36:22.581 --> 36:25.731
[SPEAKER_02]: He hit 20 home runs as an 18 year old across all those levels.

36:26.252 --> 36:27.777
[SPEAKER_02]: Got up to high A.

36:27.892 --> 36:28.813
[SPEAKER_02]: He's really exciting.

36:28.993 --> 36:38.286
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's a guy that you, regardless of him being a catcher, he's somebody that I do want to sort of attach myself to because I think he's going to break reign supreme in this area.

36:38.606 --> 36:40.468
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think he's going to, I think he's going to stick behind the plate.

36:40.488 --> 36:42.171
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see what happens.

36:42.331 --> 36:44.313
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe that's an over-aggressive ranking.

36:44.353 --> 36:45.915
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe he should have moved down a little bit.

36:46.276 --> 36:48.239
[SPEAKER_02]: But they're us these guys are older catchers.

36:48.479 --> 36:52.504
[SPEAKER_02]: And if there's one thing I know, older catchers eventually break down Dylan.

36:53.986 --> 36:57.831
[SPEAKER_02]: Next thing I want to call out here, this was kind of

36:58.790 --> 37:01.919
[SPEAKER_02]: Talk to me a little bit about Francesco Alvarez.

37:03.263 --> 37:08.479
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a couple of weird years, but there's been some glimpses of hope, so talk me a little bit about that.

37:09.640 --> 37:14.427
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a target for me because it has been a couple of weird years.

37:14.568 --> 37:16.851
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a bunch of thumb injuries on both hands.

37:17.011 --> 37:23.141
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure the managers that have Francis Clover as rostered are extremely frustrated.

37:24.603 --> 37:25.725
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's why he's a target.

37:25.745 --> 37:27.207
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you can get him cheap.

37:27.988 --> 37:31.053
[SPEAKER_00]: He still projects incredibly well.

37:31.934 --> 37:36.441
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a 118 WRC plus projected this year.

37:36.978 --> 37:41.923
[SPEAKER_00]: That's like a peak of 130, which is like Will Smith kind of territory.

37:41.943 --> 37:43.384
[SPEAKER_00]: He's still pretty young.

37:45.627 --> 37:49.250
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that he's a guy that can still hit 30 home runs.

37:50.291 --> 37:52.033
[SPEAKER_00]: He's still very young.

37:52.053 --> 37:56.537
[SPEAKER_00]: He has reasonable batting averages that don't hurt you.

37:56.577 --> 38:05.466
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he'll be 24 hit the projections this year

38:05.446 --> 38:14.094
[SPEAKER_00]: If that's at 24 at 27, you know, say 28 to 30 home runs and like a 130 WRC plus something like that.

38:14.134 --> 38:14.814
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not that high.

38:15.155 --> 38:17.437
[SPEAKER_00]: But I mean, I'm expecting upside.

38:17.457 --> 38:19.719
[SPEAKER_00]: This is these projections are based on what he has done.

38:19.819 --> 38:21.801
[SPEAKER_00]: And he has been plagued by injury.

38:21.841 --> 38:27.386
[SPEAKER_00]: So his actual production, which the projections are generally based on is lower than what it quote unquote should be.

38:27.586 --> 38:31.790
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he is just a dime into the rough trying to get him everywhere.

38:31.830 --> 38:34.212
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously podcasting publicly like this.

38:34.332 --> 38:35.453
[SPEAKER_00]: I will not be able to.

38:35.433 --> 38:39.819
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he said he'd be a target for me for sure.

38:40.459 --> 38:42.963
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm still on the Francisco Alvarez train for sure.

38:44.184 --> 38:47.048
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, and I'm going to talk about somebody who's train I'm still on.

38:47.368 --> 38:48.850
[SPEAKER_02]: That would be the Adley Rushman train.

38:48.890 --> 38:50.092
[SPEAKER_02]: We have him at 13.

38:50.993 --> 38:54.297
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a couple of really down years.

38:54.677 --> 38:59.043
[SPEAKER_02]: I had a hand injury that kind of sapped away a lot of the numbers in the second half last year.

38:59.103 --> 39:02.267
[SPEAKER_02]: Came back quickly from it.

39:03.901 --> 39:18.455
[SPEAKER_02]: Who knows, I mean, I know some of the split numbers don't necessarily back that as the right hand swing was good, and it was his top hand, and some of that stuff had two oblique injuries this year.

39:19.616 --> 39:23.841
[SPEAKER_02]: But a lot of the stuff that was concerning in 2024, check back up again.

39:25.202 --> 39:33.570
[SPEAKER_02]: So his hard hit rate, I believe, was as high as it's been at any point in his career.

39:35.221 --> 39:41.830
[SPEAKER_02]: The barrel rate climbed back up to, I think, exactly what it was in 2023.

39:41.850 --> 39:45.335
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, 7.5, 7.5.

39:46.016 --> 39:55.951
[SPEAKER_02]: He actually had the same hard hit rate in both those years of 38.638.6, which are career highs, the underlying skill stuff was pretty good.

39:56.091 --> 39:59.816
[SPEAKER_02]: It was the lowest Oswing in a full season that he's had in his career.

40:00.337 --> 40:03.321
[SPEAKER_02]: It was of 22.5, which is an excellent Oswing.

40:04.128 --> 40:09.500
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a zone contact of 91.9%, which was the highest of his career.

40:10.081 --> 40:12.787
[SPEAKER_02]: It was the lowest swing strike rate of his career at 5.4%.

40:12.927 --> 40:17.277
[SPEAKER_02]: So there is a lot of skill stuff here when I look under the hood without the Russian.

40:17.662 --> 40:20.066
[SPEAKER_02]: But it makes me think it was probably just the injuries.

40:20.627 --> 40:22.330
[SPEAKER_02]: There's some wear and tear that's going to happen.

40:22.390 --> 40:24.734
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to be 28 years old.

40:24.814 --> 40:27.018
[SPEAKER_02]: We're still in prime years for Adley Rushman.

40:27.659 --> 40:29.802
[SPEAKER_02]: The next couple of years, I think I'm buying back in.

40:29.863 --> 40:31.325
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to buy the dip.

40:31.405 --> 40:34.270
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to buy the discount with Rushman and...

40:34.250 --> 40:44.282
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to hope that, you know, he returns back to the player that we saw in 2023 that hit 20 home runs at bat at 277 with, you know, a 13.4% walk rate.

40:44.763 --> 40:50.950
[SPEAKER_02]: I think when we look at the skills Dylan, they're actually better in some regards than they were prior.

40:50.971 --> 40:54.655
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think you probably get back to that, you know, I even think that.

40:55.158 --> 41:04.270
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe the injuries weren't bothering him on the field as much and it was just a matter of stopping and starting and not really being being able to stay on the field consistently this year.

41:05.492 --> 41:23.275
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, as he was held to only 90 games so it will be interesting to see how he returns to form or doesn't maybe this is just the trend and add the had a couple of good years and you know it's just on the downward spiral now I'm willing to buy that it was just the injuries and he could potentially bounce back.

41:23.508 --> 41:37.635
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the Orioles in general will probably bounce back a little bit this year we'll see how the rotation is but I think at least the lineup a lot of injuries across that lineup and some guys have an off year so I'm going to buy the dip and I mean.

41:37.767 --> 41:43.074
[SPEAKER_02]: I think where Adley is being valued right now, it's probably the right time to buy.

41:43.114 --> 41:44.316
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's still young.

41:44.356 --> 41:47.139
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still 27 right now, but it'll be 28.

41:47.219 --> 41:48.261
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a February birthday.

41:49.282 --> 41:53.147
[SPEAKER_02]: So it'll be 28 going into the season of 28 for the entirety of the year than 29 next year.

41:53.207 --> 41:55.330
[SPEAKER_02]: It's helped birthdays work and I don't know if you realize that.

41:56.271 --> 41:56.772
[SPEAKER_02]: But.

41:56.752 --> 41:58.276
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, 28, 29.

41:58.316 --> 41:58.556
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

41:58.656 --> 42:00.601
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll buy into those years, especially in a good lineup.

42:01.062 --> 42:05.653
[SPEAKER_02]: And you could be a good park, but we'll see it depends on which side of the place it from.

42:05.753 --> 42:06.775
[SPEAKER_02]: So, I don't know.

42:06.875 --> 42:08.239
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to buy back in on Adley.

42:08.359 --> 42:09.662
[SPEAKER_02]: I guess I have nothing else to say.

42:09.682 --> 42:11.065
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if you any thoughts on freshman.

42:11.635 --> 42:17.585
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I think like what I said with Alvarus, he's at his lowest value by your league mates.

42:17.605 --> 42:27.282
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure because it's been declining WRC pluses for the last few years, the Samuel the Sial and during the picture, so people who are maybe.

42:27.262 --> 42:54.163
[SPEAKER_00]: terrified that the cliff's gone and the guy still has a 115 VRC plus a career and like he said he's only 28 so like why would the Orioles rush him back in a lost season for the team let him heal up and come out of guns blaze and in 2026 so like like we said the last sentence in the in the right-up room was about 2026 is not only possible it's plausible so I like that pick a lot

42:59.577 --> 43:05.265
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm like I said, he's my guy, I'm found some bad thing again.

43:06.106 --> 43:07.528
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk a little bit about the last.

43:07.548 --> 43:08.949
[SPEAKER_02]: We got some questions on this one.

43:09.070 --> 43:11.132
[SPEAKER_02]: We had a really low ranking on Hartgoodman.

43:11.653 --> 43:13.035
[SPEAKER_02]: We got good men down at 16.

43:13.075 --> 43:19.504
[SPEAKER_02]: He did return the top two catcher season last year as he hit 31 home runs and bad at 277.

43:19.664 --> 43:21.446
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, excuse me, 278.

43:21.827 --> 43:24.370
[SPEAKER_02]: Dylan, I don't know about you.

43:25.514 --> 43:26.075
[SPEAKER_02]: I think so.

43:26.095 --> 43:27.337
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you back me on this.

43:28.058 --> 43:44.080
[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't buy goodman being able to repeat this season and I think when you look at it historically, the only guys that have been able to come close to repeating it were like Salvi Perez had a season like this in 2021.

43:44.195 --> 43:47.978
[SPEAKER_02]: And had a similar season, some regards in 2022.

43:48.079 --> 43:49.620
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he wasn't a top five catcher.

43:49.640 --> 43:50.901
[SPEAKER_02]: I think we would maybe six or seven.

43:50.961 --> 43:52.523
[SPEAKER_02]: The Raspberry Pi operator that year in 2022.

43:52.663 --> 43:56.186
[SPEAKER_02]: But it was like 23 home runs in a 250 batting average.

43:56.747 --> 44:02.292
[SPEAKER_02]: After hitting, you know, 270, whatever with 48 home runs.

44:04.834 --> 44:08.517
[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't see good menace certainly repeating this when you look at some of the skills.

44:10.199 --> 44:13.662
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I said, I looked at his historically going back to 2021.

44:14.958 --> 44:18.863
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a 39% or higher post swing.

44:19.103 --> 44:20.324
[SPEAKER_02]: I can give you the exact number.

44:20.364 --> 44:23.889
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it was maybe like 39.7 or something like that.

44:24.489 --> 44:25.711
[SPEAKER_02]: It depends what you look at.

44:25.991 --> 44:29.896
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I pulled maybe sports info solutions numbers.

44:29.936 --> 44:32.639
[SPEAKER_02]: So those are higher than the stat cast numbers with their 36.2.

44:33.881 --> 44:37.445
[SPEAKER_02]: But 39.4 on that number because I could pull it on the leaderboards.

44:38.086 --> 44:44.273
[SPEAKER_02]: And in a swing strike rate of 16% or higher,

44:44.388 --> 44:48.114
[SPEAKER_02]: There were four other players in MLB this year that had at least 350 of that.

44:48.214 --> 44:55.266
[SPEAKER_02]: I played appearances that had similar numbers PCA, which we've heard a lot of the debate about him, but PCA also stole 35 bases.

44:56.368 --> 44:59.653
[SPEAKER_02]: Ezekiel Tovar, who had very down year.

45:00.996 --> 45:03.700
[SPEAKER_02]: That was a 78 WRC plus this year.

45:04.401 --> 45:07.386
[SPEAKER_02]: Ryan Mount Castle, who had a down year in Gabriel Arias.

45:08.929 --> 45:10.311
[SPEAKER_02]: Previous year,

45:10.510 --> 45:15.002
[SPEAKER_02]: Sedane Raphiela, Zikil Tovar, Nick Castiano's.

45:15.623 --> 45:26.553
[SPEAKER_02]: previous year, Salvador Perez, Havibayez, Tolvar again, Louis Robert Jr. had a year like this had a really good year that year, but this probably only time he has ever seen 350 plate appearances.

45:26.593 --> 45:45.630
[SPEAKER_02]: Nick Castellanos, Jake Berger, this is 2023, Jose Seri 2022, Havibayez again, Salvi Perez again, Avicell Garcia, Michael Chavis, Nick Castellanos, Adalas Garcia again, 2021 Adalas Garcia, Ryan Mount Castle,

45:45.610 --> 45:48.653
[SPEAKER_02]: hobby bias, Sally Perez.

45:49.715 --> 45:56.242
[SPEAKER_02]: Most of these seasons, especially since 2022, are under 100WRC+.

45:56.823 --> 45:58.345
[SPEAKER_02]: So there are years where this happens.

46:01.268 --> 46:05.533
[SPEAKER_02]: This was about as good of a year as you could have with those sort of plate skills.

46:06.314 --> 46:11.880
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't know if I want to gamble on that.

46:11.920 --> 46:15.364
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't

46:16.441 --> 46:21.449
[SPEAKER_02]: The recovery time and the injury risk of playing an altitude we know for sure is higher.

46:21.489 --> 46:22.451
[SPEAKER_02]: This has been studied.

46:23.252 --> 46:26.778
[SPEAKER_02]: The injury risk of playing catcher is higher.

46:27.219 --> 46:31.386
[SPEAKER_02]: You combine those two things and then you factor in the plate skills.

46:32.007 --> 46:34.210
[SPEAKER_02]: I just have a lot of concerns with Goodman.

46:34.230 --> 46:40.761
[SPEAKER_02]: He may have another 25 home run season where he hits 250 and the OBP is bad.

46:40.741 --> 46:47.274
[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't fully buy into it, and I'm fading in this year, we faded them in the rankings.

46:47.795 --> 46:51.502
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's just a statement of like, we just don't buy the skills here.

46:51.643 --> 46:55.731
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't buy that a guy's going to drive in 91 runs and that terrible lineup.

46:58.316 --> 46:59.458
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so

46:59.759 --> 47:17.067
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure, the positives 30 homeruns plays in course 26 years old and the defense wasn't so bad at all The first half second half was actually pretty much the same so it wasn't a thing of like he started off hot and then like completely faded But like it's hidden by the incredible first half.

47:17.107 --> 47:17.628
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like that.

47:17.688 --> 47:18.549
[SPEAKER_00]: So he did pretty well.

47:18.569 --> 47:20.232
[SPEAKER_00]: So those are all the good

47:20.212 --> 47:31.406
[SPEAKER_00]: The bad is like the chase rate is so high the wiff rate so high the stricken rates are high and the walk rate is very low it's like bottom 20% in the league.

47:32.447 --> 47:38.715
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah 18% 18th percentile 5.7% so he's not very good you know BP leagues.

47:40.817 --> 47:45.443
[SPEAKER_00]: He's projected to be a 303 OBP.

47:46.418 --> 47:49.847
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if he had a 580 plate of burns is last year.

47:49.867 --> 47:56.444
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's going to get that just for all the things you said it's hard to play an altitude it's hard to recover from injury, et cetera.

47:58.068 --> 48:02.098
[SPEAKER_00]: So if he gets to 500 plate of burns is

48:02.332 --> 48:05.057
[SPEAKER_00]: That's 25 home runs.

48:05.417 --> 48:06.639
[SPEAKER_00]: So obviously, that's good.

48:07.200 --> 48:12.890
[SPEAKER_00]: The expatting average, the expected adding average was like 247, so like it's 250 instead of 280.

48:12.910 --> 48:18.079
[SPEAKER_00]: We got a 250 with 25 home runs, which is very good.

48:18.600 --> 48:21.866
[SPEAKER_00]: But like Logan of Hoppy is kind of doing that.

48:21.886 --> 48:25.352
[SPEAKER_00]: So like you've got a whole bunch of guys in that area.

48:25.602 --> 48:32.629
[SPEAKER_00]: And if he has 500 plate prints is that batting average is going to drop pull you down a bit so unlike a guy like Ivan Arrara or Gabriel Moreno.

48:34.231 --> 48:36.633
[SPEAKER_00]: Who boost your batting average boost your OBP.

48:37.034 --> 48:38.816
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a bit of a sink so.

48:39.656 --> 48:41.899
[SPEAKER_00]: I see the argument that he could be higher.

48:42.399 --> 48:46.684
[SPEAKER_00]: I see the argument that he's going to the bottom is going to drop out as well.

48:46.784 --> 48:53.010
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, we kind of played it in between have a 16th 15th something like that.

48:52.990 --> 49:14.377
[SPEAKER_00]: Which I think is a pretty spot like I think I would rather have Gabriel Barano than 100 goodman Especially no Bp league and yeah, I mean, I think we've We've got all elements of hunter goodman right now exactly So that's why we're as low as we are if you are high in hunter goodman.

49:14.497 --> 49:15.859
[SPEAKER_02]: I totally understand it

49:16.143 --> 49:18.406
[SPEAKER_02]: This is where we just have a difference of opinion.

49:18.446 --> 49:21.691
[SPEAKER_02]: So one of us is going to be right this year, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: So he's either going to be good or bad.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think there's any in between with how to give it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So we will see, all right, Dylan, catches are down.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We're not going to have to talk.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Catchers will be back, talk in first basement next week, which is, think a little bit more exciting than catchers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Huh?

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[SPEAKER_02]: A little bit.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I can see that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll have that news.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think by the time we record, we'll also know who's been left unprotected for the rule five, maybe we'll talk about some guys that were protected as they might be really interesting targets in your dynasty, your fantasy leagues, but definitely your FY, and you choose me, your NFBC leagues, your draft champion, some of those, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Guys get protected

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's that much closer to being the major leagues.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That said, thank you for tuning in.

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[SPEAKER_02]: This has been the baseball America fantasy podcast.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm Jeff, he's Dylan, and you're listening.