Hello everyone
and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always
Stan McCune, Realtor, right here in Greenville
South Carolina
you can find all of my contact information
in the show notes if you need to reach out to me
for any of your real estate needs
just a reminder as always
please
like the show if you're on YouTube
little thumbs up button you can do it from your phone
you can do it from your computer
please hit that take 1 second to hit that alright
literally just 1 second please do that
if you're on apple please leave a 5 star review
Spotify same thing
and any sort of ratings or reviews
I would greatly appreciate from you guys
that's all I ask of you
that and that you use me as your realtor
very simple request
so I'd appreciate if you guys could do that
interesting times right now
interesting times
I just had
what was probably the busiest week of the year for me
a lot coming to a head right now
the market
just hasn't
I guess some of the traditional
seasonal trends of the market are not happening
in the order that we typically see them
could be for a variety of reasons
could be because
mortgage rates have come down in recent months
that tends to not have a direct impact on buyer
and seller behaviors for a few months
so it typically
rates have to come down for about six to eight weeks
before people really start to change their behaviors
and really start to adapt to the new rate environment
well that has happened
we've had mortgage rates
in the low 60s now for
for several months in a row
and it does seem like that has affected people
but I just
I'm recording this on November 17th
I hosted
the second busiest open house that I have ever hosted
yesterday for one of my listings
I'm out in the Reedville part of Greer
not very many homes are in Reedville proper
kind of a small little town
but in the Reedville part of Greer
and yeah
I had over 20 parties show up for the open house
for a two hour open house
it was nuts and not even a very big house
so it was like people were crawling over each other
the only thing comparable to that was I had a
I had an open house back in
I think it was 2021 but when the market was nuts
so and
I had a fixer upper in a in a neighborhood that sells
you know
really high prices I mean
relatively speaking
for where it was one of the nicest neighborhoods in
at least middle class neighborhoods in the area
that it was but I had a fixer upper
it was priced as a fixer upper and that one the
the open house was insane
I wasn't even having people sign in
because there were so many people like I
we just couldn't keep up with it
so thank thankfully it wasn't quite that busy
that was too busy
I needed another I wasn't prepared for that one
I needed a
a second agent to help me with that one quite frankly
but this open house
turned out was great
had a had a good time and the buyers are out there
they are out there
they're looking for something very specific
what is that large lots
they want large lots
that was what I was selling with this house that I had
this open house for over 1/2 acre lot
2 thousand square foot house
nothing super fancy
but on a greater than half acre lot
that's what people want that's what they want
they don't want these postage stamp lot sizes anymore
they're so fed up with that
and you know
that's why there's so much anti development
sentiment right now people are tired of
of all these rows of houses and I get it
I completely get it
there you know
at the end of the day it's a it's a an argument
that kind of goes in both ways right
we do we need
we need developers to be making more of those
sorts of communities
but at the same time that costs a lot of money right
if you only put one house in a space
where you can put two houses
you as a developer are losing money in theory
but eventually the
things are gonna shift
to the point where people just aren't gonna buy this
postage stamp sized lots that homes are on
and then what right
developers are gonna have to shift strategies
now they I'm not worried about the developers
they're really really nimble
even the big ones super nimble I mean very impressive
can't
remember if I've mentioned this on the show before
but in Reedville right Reedville
they originally they approved
some plans to have a town center in the
in the middle of Reedville
and
there's been some drama over that
apparently
they had a contractor bid out the work
and then they decided scrap all of that
we're gonna we're gonna get other quotes
and my understanding is the whole thing is on ice
but where I'm going with all of that
is that Ryan Homes swooped in before
you know the term
Reidville Town Center was like an official anything
and Ryan Homes swooped in
and created a community called
Reidville Town Center extremely
I mean think about it Ryan Homes one of the largest
development corporations in the entire United States
they are they had boots on the ground
that attuned to what's happening that they knew
oh we can swoop in here and steal this name
people that are googling
what's going on with the Reedville Town Center
they're going to be sent straight to the website
for our brand new community right incredible
absolutely incredible
so I'm not worried about the developers they
if they're at that nimble like that
that told me something right
when Ryan Holmes pulled that off
I was like kudos to them
that is impressive work impressive work
whatever you think about Ryan Holmes
like they clearly have a very
very skilled back end to be able to
to suss something like that out
so good on them
but yeah anyway
that's a little some little anecdotal stuff for you
but we are going to dive straight into the
the real deal here
let me see if I can actually find what I'm
what I'm looking for
market stats I apologize
which
I want a very specific thing here
and is it providing it for me
so I use zoom for all of this
and currently zoom is giving me a problem
alright give me one second
let me try this again alright
I think I got it
alright here we go
sorry about that hate the
hate the dead air but I don't edit these
these podcasts it's
it's too much work to edit out dead air and
and what not so I'm sorry
you guys if you had to listen to that I apologize
alright
we're gonna jump right in
so I just told you what I'm feeling from
from the market my own personal business
do the stats bear it out
new listings will start at the top up 21.9%
we've had a lot of 20+ percent new listings month
and again that's year on year so we had
for the month of October right
we're looking at October market stats here
Greater Granville Association of Realtors
2,324 new listings as opposed to 1,906 last year
we've been running hot all year on new listings
and the month of October was no exception
tons and tons of new listings coming online
pending sales
we'll jump to this
and we're gonna look back at September right
this is this is one that's always revised and
and always gets revised upward
so September originally showed 879 pending sales
when we looked at this last month
that got revised up to 1,326 a pretty
pretty standard revision
I always tell you guys that gets revised
what does that mean
that was a 9.3% year over year increase from the 1,213
pending sales in September
so we had 9.3%
more homes go under contract this September
than last September
that's the highest number that we've had since March
in terms of
in terms of year on year increases so again
the statistics bear out September
things started to get hot in September
and
and October is also looking like it'll be pretty strong
so October's unrevised numbers 8 69 so if we get a
if we get a similar revision
to what we had for the month of September
we should see October somewhere in the low 1300s
now October last year was 1324 pending sales
so we might actually have a down month
that would be the first down month of the year actually
so that's kind of interesting but October of last year
you know that was a pretty strong
a pretty strong print that we had
and you can see if you're looking on YouTube
you can see that we had a nice little October bump
that happened where you know
it looked like the market was bottoming out last year
and then October got a little bump and then
and then it started to come back down November
December
with you know
December as usual
being the slowest month for pending sales
close sales 14
39 close sales for the month of October
10% increase over
October of last year which was 13:08
so here we go and September was a 21% increase
was that revised much no
that wasn't revised a whole lot a 21% increase so
so now we've had two straight months of double digit
year on year increases in closed sales
so I told you guys in my own business I'm
I've seen this uptick the past
it's couple of weeks and the past couple of months
and the data is bearing that out again
I would attribute
the a lot of this to the mortgage rate situation
days on market until sale
we have a flat 54 days on market until sale
that's exactly what it was a year ago
which is interesting cause most of this year
we've seen homes are taking longer to sell
than they did last year
this is only the second time this year that the
that there's been no difference year on year right
the other month was the month of may
which is 46 days on market
that was the same thing as may of 2024
so October 54 days
now you're
you might be hearing that and being like whoa
it went up from taking 46 days to sell home in may to
all the way up to 54 days in the month of October
but this is seasonal right
it takes longer this time of year
than it does you know
in during the
the spring and summer months
and you can see it every single year
it starts to go up after
really after the summer months
and then you know
it usually peaks around January
February March
somewhere like that
so we can expect this number to continue to go up
you know on average
it's taking 54 days to go under contract
from the time you list a home
that's probably going to slow down a bit more
as we enter the holiday season
median sales price this is the closest thing that
that we have to like being able to track
market wide appreciation that being said
it's not exactly appreciating
or it's not exactly
a 100% indicator that the market is appreciating
or depreciating but it is a way that we can assess that
we had one month this year
where the median sales price was down year over year
that was the month of January
Every other single month has been positive and at least
1.5% increase every single month
now that's behind inflation
so in a in a sense
housing has
continued to become a little bit more affordable
in this area when you
when you factor in that
it's not keeping up with inflation
for the most part however
the past two months
have been running a little bit hotter
so September we saw a three and a half percent
increase on the median sales price
year over year
it got up to three 99 over 309 September 24
and October went up to 323,000
which is a 2.9% increase from the 313
nine ninety that we had in October of 2024
and that's a that's a
a solid number right to see
you know a 2.9% increase
that's right around
depending on how you track your inflation
that's pretty close to
you know what standard inflation is
so these past two months we buck the trend again
the market has heated up the past couple of months
could be very interesting to see
if we have some kind of residual effects of
of this in November and December
personally my November December
is looking pretty strong right
based on what I see in the pipeline and closings I have
and what not
average sales price came down month on month
remember that last month we had the highest ever
it came down a little bit to 416,006 70
however that is a slight increase from a year ago
which is 414,005 34
so half a percent
half a percent point increase year over year
so I don't pay super close attention to the average
but I always tell you guys that right
the median I
I much prefer the median over the average
the average is skewed by all these
you know million dollar homes that are sold
we didn't have as many of them apparently
the past month so
but we have had unlike the median
every single month so far
this year has had a year over year increase versus
the prior month
so it'll be very interesting to see for the average
if that if we have an entire 12 month period of time
for this entire year where that average price
it has seen appreciation for every single month
percent of list price received
the this is the percent found when dividing a property
sales price by its most recent list price
then taking the average for all properties
sold in a given month
not accounting for seller concessions
bit of a mouthful
But basically this is loosely speaking
how much you can expect to
percent wise to sell your home for once it's listed
so currently sitting at 97.8%
that is
the second lowest that we've had all year
January was 97.7% that is the lowest
October 97.8%
that's a point two % decrease from the 98% that we had
a year ago
that being said that's still pretty much in line with
with historical trends from
from 2017 until the pandemic
it was really normal
for the percent of list price
received to be right in the 98% range
give or take
and so we've been hovering right around there
that's been one of the few things
that has reverted back to
pre pandemic norms
in in more recent years
housing affordability index
we are so close we are so
so close to hitting 100
which is the number that we want to hit right
100 on the housing affordability index
means that the median household can afford
the median priced home
depending on based on prevailing interest rates
and median household incomes
last month we were at 99 and October we are also at 99
now what's different is that last month was a
decrease versus September of 2024 right
so or I should say not last month but September
was at 99 and September of 2024 was
was 104 so that was a decrease in affordability
however October
being 99 is exactly the same as October a year ago
so even though the market has appreciated
these mortgage rates coming down
incomes going up has kind of offset
the fact that the median sales price has gone up
so we're very very close
to having a market that passes the bare minimum
standard for affordability
we want this number to be 100
it's at 99
And the good news is that it's been trending
in the right direction
it bottomed out at 92 for the year
back in June
July and since then it's been coming up
so this is the number that we want
it would be great
if we could see this number go above 100
mortgage rates tell the story here right
if we see mortgage rates come
back down into the real low 60s
like right around 6%
we would for sure see this number go above 100
so that's really what we need
to genuinely see a difference in affordability
all right
inventory of homes for sale
this is another one that that gets revised
although this one gets revised downward
so we'll look at September real quick
September's
unrevised number last month was 6,516 homes for sale
at the end of the month
that got revised down to 60 1 hundred that being said
that's still a 31.8% increase year over year
and we we're now in this interesting thing
we've had three straight months of 31% increases
in inventory for sale
at the at the end of the month
so July was 31.4% increase
August was 31.8% September 31.8% very interesting
I don't know you know that again
the human mind is wired to see patterns
there's nothing inherently going on to
to create that exact number
but for some reason we keep seeing that number
in more recent months now
October's gonna get revised down from currently it's
it's saying 6,601
homes were for sale at the end of October
if it gets revised downward
in a similar way to September
you know it'll be maybe around sixty two hundred
and that'll be a pretty substantial increase
over October of last year
which was 4,546 so a lot a lot more homes for sale
than what we had a year ago
which is good if you're a buyer if you're a seller
not as good however
a lot of these a lot of this inventory
is new construction at the end of the day
you know there was something just realized
there was something that I wanted to mention earlier
maybe it'll come back to me
alright month supply of inventory
this will this divides the
the inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given
month by the average monthly pending sales
well if you've been paying attention those
the both
those numbers need to get revised
for the month of October so currently it's saying 4.7
months of inventory
that's gonna get revised down
we don't have 4.7 months of inventory currently
let's look back at September
the unrevised number for September is 4.6
that got revised down to 4.2
so October will probably get revised down to 4.2
4.3
which regardless is still a big jump over September
October of last year which was 3.4 and 3.3 respectively
so again
we've got more inventory
we've got more month supply of inventory
so supply is outpacing demand
that's what that means
and so again
if you're a home buyer that is a good thing right
that's why we haven't seen prices go crazy
that's why the market is more tame right now
it's because of these sorts of numbers
now what's gonna be interesting to see
usually
it starts to come down around this time of year
if you look at the chart usually
month supply of inventory actually bottoms out
around January
but it's on the on the contrary
it's going up right now so
this is definitely something to watch
we might see some kind of a correction
that happens in the month of December
with some of these numbers that are
that are acting wonky
I don't know
but a lot of interesting stuff going on and
the market is not doing the usual it
it's not following your
the standard seasonality that we see right
we're still seeing some seasonal trends
but we're also seeing some
trends coming in that aren't seasonal
right that are just a byproduct
I think of mortgage rates doing weird things
perhaps the ending of the government shutdown
I definitely think that that impacted some things like
I'm pretty confident that I've got a seller for
for sorry
a buyer for one of my listings
that
that wanted a longer due diligence
period than they really needed
and I'm pretty sure that it was
because they were waiting to see how the government
shutdown played out cause this was an investor buyer
and so sometimes you know
people don't realize that those sorts of things
do impact what happens
in in the real estate market
impacts buyer and seller behaviors
it's crazy
but if you're an investor
it makes sense maybe you've got investments that
that might go one
one direction or another based on what's happening in
in the government you know
I know that Bitcoin has come down a little bit
that's causing some people to
to change behaviors on things
just a lot of stuff right
things are so complicated now
it's we're all ready
we're all ready for
for things to not be complicated anymore
but it's not gonna happen
it's gonna keep being complicated
we just really all I'm asking for
we just need mortgage rates to come down a little bit
we don't need 50 year mortgage I
I don't I don't really think that
that's gonna make a difference
now it's been floated out
this idea of portable mortgages
portable mortgages would allow
buyers to keep the mortgage rate and basically the
all of the all of the terms principal interest
everything from the home that they're selling
and transfer it over to the home that they're buying
there's a lot of mixed opinions on that
I'm in favor of it personally
some people say well
that just helps the rich get richer
right because
that disproportionately
hurts the first time home buyer
it
there is some I like in a vacuum
that's true however
this is a step up home buyer right
so what these people are what this would do is
a portable mortgage would cause that person
that was a first time home buyer a few years ago
but now they want to make that next purchase
it would allow them to make that next purchase
which would then free up the home that they bought
which would be the home that the first time home buyer
would potentially be buying
they're not gonna be buying the home
that the person with the portable mortgage
is now going to purchase right
and so in my opinion
it would actually help first time home buyers
as well more indirectly
and so I'm personally for that I'm
I'm not
real big on the 50 year mortgage thing that
that Trump and Pelosi have
have talked about
it's fine like I'm not opposed to it
but people need to be aware
that there are consequences to that right
so let's say you get a 50 year mortgage and
and after you know
your standard five years of living in the house
you decide to sell and buy your next house
well you
one thing people have gotten used to
after five years of a 30 year fixed rate mortgage
typically you have you know
a little bit of equity built up right
the market's appreciated enough
you paid down a little bit of your principal
you have a little bit of equity
enough to be able to sell
and then be able to pocket some money
put some towards your next down payment
all of that got a 50 year mortgage
those first five years
you're paying almost all interest
and so people need to be prepared
for that that
I mean they're basically renting the home for
for those first few years and
and hoping for there to be
increases in the
in the equity of the home simply by
as a byproduct of the market appreciating
you're not gaining equity by paying down your principal
right
not in those first few years
I mean you're barely doing it in a 30 year mortgage
I've not run the
the amortization schedules for a 50 year
but I would think that you're really not
I mean I know for a fact
you're really not doing it in a 50 year mortgage
and so there's
there could be some bad ramifications from that
there's a there's a lot
a lot to consider and I didn't come here prepared to
to talk about all that
maybe I should have saved that for another episode
but there you go that's a freebie for you guys
for all of you diehards that listen to the very end
thank you guys so much
I really appreciate all of my listeners
every one of you that reach out that
that give me feedback please do that
and even more so
please leave feedback on the show like rate review
subscribe if you need a realtor
my contact information is in the show notes
I would love to talk to you about that
we will talk again next time!