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[SPEAKER_00]: Hello, and welcome to baseball America's draft podcast.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Carlos Glaus, a joined by Peter Flaherty.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And Peter, I guess it's only been two weeks, but it feels like it feels like, excuse me, it's been a while since we've cut it up on the podcast.

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[SPEAKER_00]: How are you doing?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I know, I'm excited to get back to our weekly schedule, which is sooner rather than later.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's not a tease.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's TBS to when it is, but it'll be soon.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I agree, the two weeks always feels like,

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[SPEAKER_01]: a long layoff and you know, given that it's 12 23 on Thursdays or recording this, that's almost now sunset time here in Boston.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I hate it so much, man.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Every year now, my wife gets super excited about the extra hour of sleep that she's able to get when this happens.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I have received a point where I'm just like,

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[SPEAKER_00]: annoyed I would I would give back the hour of sleep if I could just get a little more sunlight in the evenings and I know you're definitely a night owl so it probably is even more radical with the amount of sunlight you're getting because I'm I know for a fact I'm going to bed before you are but yeah I'm I'm not a fan I love the weather not a fan of the the data daylight hours we're getting at this stage that's the thing is that not to

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[SPEAKER_01]: take this podcast to off the rails.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I do like with her podcast, but he's Paul America.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I love the snow which we haven't gotten yet.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I like the I like the crisp in the air though.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's more cold than crisp now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: uh there are a lot of reasons why I love this time of year but man it it gets it gets dark real early but you know hopefully the the podcast brings some some brightness to your day I yeah I built that up more in my than how it was articulated but I'm excited to tell you chat is always

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, excited to chat.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Today, we're not going to talk about present draft prospects or the present draft class.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We still have plenty of time to cut those players up and dive into that process over the next year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I did think it was interesting to maybe look back on the 2021 and 2022 drafts.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason for those in particular is because we just had the 40-man roster deadline,

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[SPEAKER_00]: On the site, JJ and Jeff are heading up our rule five coverage diving into a bunch of prospects who could be interesting to be selected in that we always have a real five fever here around baseball America some people to greater degrees than others.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But what is interesting is JJ wrote a piece on the 10 first round picks who are left unprotected ahead of this year's 2020 25 rule five draft and

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[SPEAKER_00]: The the short and skinny of it is teams left a lot of players this year unprotected in their first year's eligible.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so I feel like it's a good entry point to maybe revisit the 2021 and really 2022 draft in particular because this year was the first time that we had players from the 2022 draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: available or or their time is up on on real five deadline like they need to be protected and weren't the 2021 draft we had will bednar a year ago was left unprotected so who's the first college player and that was a more typical draft class at the time but when you lump in the eligible high school players from the 2021 draft with really I'd say a poor crop of college players who are now

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[SPEAKER_00]: in kind of protection territory from the 2022 draft, you get what J.J. describes as one of the worst samples of

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[SPEAKER_00]: players not protected in the last decade ahead of the rule five draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, essentially, teams really swung and miss a lot more in these two specific classes than we have, I guess, become normalized too.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would encourage everyone to read JJ's full story.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He has a full numbers here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I just have a list of the players from 2021 and 2022 who were left unprotected.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So far.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So in the 2021 draft, I'll just run down the list and then we can kind of get into some of the players and maybe some of the reasons like what we thought at the time, et cetera.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But in the 2021 draft, it's high schoolers, Frank Mazakato, who was drafted by the roles in the seventh overall pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's Benny Montgomery, Rocky's eighth overall pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's Maddox, a bronze Dodgers left in a pitcher with a 29th overall pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then Jay Allen, reds outfield or with 30th.

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[SPEAKER_00]: overall pick from that class will bed in our also was unprotected that was a year ago ahead of the 2024 rule five draft he was the giant's 14th overall pick and then our 2022 unprotected first rounders are Jacob Berry, Marlin's sixth overall pick, Gavin Cross, Royals, ninth overall pick and outfielder, Kevin Pirrata, Metz Catcher, 11th overall pick, Daniel Susac, Aiz Catcher, 19th overall pick,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Eric Brown, Brewer Shortstop, 27th, 27th, overall pick, and then Reggie Crawford, Giants left in a picture, 30th, overall pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I've been talking a lot, I've listed all the players, just general thoughts here, Peter, before we get into any specifics.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so I mean, I'm dating myself a little bit here, but 21 and 22 was that 21 was before I graduated college and 22 was right out of here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You're so young and in your prime, congratulations to you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: to be able on both, but no, it's always interesting to see each year who's protected and who's who's not protected, heading into heading into the rule five draft and this year obviously it was more first rounders than we've seen in years past and I think

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, what I, what we always talk about on the podcast, what I always think about, and I'm sure you do too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, we talk about how baseball is a game of failure for players, like that's kind of the biggest cliche.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you feel seven out of ten times your Hall of Famer.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think it's important to remember, you know, you're gonna, you're gonna miss as a scout too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you'll, you'll miss potentially, you know, on more guys and you'll hit on,

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[SPEAKER_01]: As a scout, obviously you want those misses and not be in the first or second round, but it happens.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's a difficult job to scout these guys.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, you know, the rationale for selecting, you know, certain these, these guys in the first round in their respective draft years was there, like not to ramble on, but like Benny Montgomery who went eighth overall to the Rockies in 2021 2021.

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[SPEAKER_01]: prep out-feeler, all the tools in the world, some hit-to-a-questions, but like pre-moathly, 64-center-fielder, again, toolshed to a T. He's not been able to stay on the field, just has been kind of cut the injury bug.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Hasn't really come around, hit-to-a-wise.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Frank Mazakato going seventh in that draft prep left hander and of East Catholic high school and Connecticut was drafted seventh overall by the royals.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this high wasted projectible left hander who from what I remember between that summer of 2020 the baseball he did play and then in the fall.

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[SPEAKER_01]: throughout the spring like continue to like trend up and up and up, visualize dynamism wise into this crescendo of being selected seventh overall.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think at the time, you know, that was a real eyebrow raising one.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I remember going to watch him and you know, this is when I was with

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[SPEAKER_01]: the Yankees.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I remember going to watch him a few times and being really, really impressed.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think I saw three straight no hitters from Frank.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a lot of, like, this is what it looks like.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this big curve ball that, you know, I put a plus grade on.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, wasn't all that unreasonable to project above average on the fast ball and, you know, he's mixing in a distinct slider and turning over a change up competing it in around the zone, you know, to respectable enough clip.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So like the now stuff was there with Frank, but, you know, you expect it as you continue to get into professional baseball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And with a player development department that I was only going to continue to go up and up and up and you know he perhaps be sitting in the mid 90s the curve ball would get that much more sharp but you know didn't quite work out that way the control you know you could maybe even say backed up a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, as he's gone through pro ball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so, you know, it's interesting just looking at all these guys like we could break down all 10 like Maddox.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's just stick on let's stick on my as a caught up for a second because I do think of all the players in this group of unprotected first timers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Mazakato is the guy who I think we can fairly confidently say at the time he was the most surprising pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think the 2022 college names are interesting because a lot of them were like kind of stock off the board where we had them right players that just haven't paned out.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas Mazakato of the names in the 2021 draft, every single one of the players that was left unprotected went before

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[SPEAKER_00]: the ranking we had here at Baseball America, which makes me feel a little better.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll come back to that 2022.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, but Mazakata was ranked number 42 in his class bias on draft day.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He goes seventh overall.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's the biggest gap here of a ranking and we're a player went of any of the unprotected players in 2021.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we had him as like a second round type.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, like always, with these sort of surprise picks, it's worth mentioning.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Mazikata did go in this range because he was an underslot.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He went in this range on deal.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He signed for 3.55 million.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I believe that was the lowest bonus of anyone who signed in the first round until you get to looks like Michael McGreevy, 18th overall.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, in terms of like the money, it's more middle of the first round type money in that class compared to top 10.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But still,

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[SPEAKER_00]: The Royals had to pass on a lot of guys who we view just better in that class, Benny Montgomery, who's also on this list included, who we hit right number 23, but they pass on Sam Bachman.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They pass on Kamar Rocker.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They pass on Brady House, Harry Ford, Andrew Painter, South Frelick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Calil Watson, Matt McClain, like a lot of these guys that in hindsight, obviously you'd rather have, but it was an off the board pick at the time, and it just hasn't really paid off for them.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's a little bit more painful for the royals, because they're the one team you look at, they've got multiple players inside the top 10 from both these drafts who are left unprotected and Gavin Cross in 2022, who they drafted ninth, was not at all an off the board pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We ranked him number 10.

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[SPEAKER_00]: at the time.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And he just is in this group of like college hitters that has generally been disappointing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So for the royals, it's really tough.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think for back to back years to have a top 10 pick and to look up five years later and realize there are two players that you deemed not rosterable.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, it's a

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's probably perhaps the most discouraging team of the bunch.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And like you said, the Mazakado pick was off the board and with Gavin Cross, he was this kind of classic first round profile, and that is this physical corner outfielder with a plus arm, plus power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You felt confident in the hit tool.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And like you said, that was more sort of a cookie cutter type of pick.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think a step in the right direction for cross productivity.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Why is he set career highs in almost every major statistical categories 23 double 17 homers 64 RB eyes all full season career highs, but you know,

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be 25 before the start of the 2026 season just now finished, you know, his second full year in AA.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, I'm kind of curious to see what happens with, you know, Frank Mazikato, just because, you know, I was obviously enamored with him in high school in those days are long gone, but, you know,

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[SPEAKER_01]: kind of why the strike throwing backed up or hasn't really inconsistent improvement.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's a career 6.4 walks per 9 pitcher in the minor leagues, which is just crazy to think about actually, and you combined that with just, I mean, he missed bats in the lower levels in his first few seasons, but

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[SPEAKER_00]: He got lit up pretty good in his time in AA this year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he walked more than he struck out at that level.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And without strides to, if you're taking a picture like Frank Mazakato, you don't get a huge jump and fastball velocity in the command also backs up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, what are you working with here?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, I wonder, it's not to beat a dead horse with, you know, corona.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, I wonder,

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, how different the draft would have looked, you know, if that stuff never happened, we had a normal 2020 and a normal 2021 because stuff was still weird and in the spring of 21 at least up in this neck of the wood.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like that draft.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, I'm sort of more lenient on to an extent just because there was probably less of a window to get out and see these guys live and in a value item.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But no, the back to back unprotected with 21 and 22, the royals is like, you know, not great.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But again, you're gonna, you're gonna fail as a player, you're gonna fail as a scout like it's just, it sucks that you know, it were higher profile guys because you know, it's not indicative of the scouting department itself.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But, right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Those two were tough ones.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Reggie Crawford, not to completely.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's stick on, let's stick on 2021, just with Benny Montgomery really quickly because I do think that once we get into the 2022 Combo and the college players, the conversation shifts a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I did want to mention like Benny Montgomery, being on this list is not a massive shocker because I think everyone in the industry at the time like acknowledged that Benny Montgomery was a high risk, high reward profile.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I wonder if teams are just gonna,

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[SPEAKER_00]: be more and more wary of taking these sorts of players because we've seen a lot of high profile misses with this sort of player type, both at the end.

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[SPEAKER_00]: the high school and the college level like vantani cut has similar sort of physical tools and defensive upside maybe more proven as a hitter just given his college track record and he was one of the worst hitters in mind like baseball this year just in terms of pure strikeout rate that he had.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But Benny Montgomery like I think of players like Elijah Green if you want like hope for these sorts of profiles Joshua Bias is

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[SPEAKER_00]: progress that he made as a hitter is really encouraging, but even at the time, Benny Montgomery was a scary profile for me.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think this pick was quite as surprising.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As Frank Monter, Mazikata was just because like we ranked Benny Montgomery as a first round player, we had him number 23 overall on our board.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Really everything outside of just confidence in the

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[SPEAKER_00]: 70 grade speed, he had a plus arm, he had a great frame, he was already showing plus power now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It was just like how much contact was he going to make and it does feel like the Rockies in particular have been an organization that is happy to take some hit risk with these sorts of physical athletic players who give them access to power and impact.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if you look at the top of their system right now, it's a ton of guys who maybe fit the sort of profile.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Ethan Holidays.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Contact questions obviously have become more of a concern after his pro debut Charlie Condon has shown maybe not to the degree of any Montgomery, Ethan Holidays so far, but he has like power over hit offensive profile now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's been the case with a lot of those players and so I just wonder like,

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[SPEAKER_00]: our team is going to be even more strict moving forward with the sort of hit tool confidence they can have for first round players because we can just point to a lot of guys.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like in recent memory, who just haven't paned out of this profile.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think this, the Benny Montgomery pick and in other throughout the years and

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[SPEAKER_01]: who knows to what extent, only time will tell.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think it serves as a cautionary tale.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you get the nail in the head.

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[SPEAKER_01]: With Benny, all the tools in the world, you look at his pre-draft tool grades, and it's at least three, sixes, and probably a seven mixed in there with the hit tool being the one outlier.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I've sort of, this has been my thinking for regardless of how right or wrong it is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are a lot of tools and skills that you can teach and develop to an extent, like you can teach almost anyone to hit for power again to an extent you can train angles you can train bats speed.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there are things you can do to get to more impact, you can train around tool to an extent same deal with, you know, glove work and in arm but to it to a lesser extent, probably than power, but with hitting, I think there's a certain degree of like you either can or you can't with them, like how many guys come in contact skills you think are basically a night to a much greater degree.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like how many guys, whether it's high school or college, do you see coming out of the draft with 40s or even 45s on their hit tool, developing into even 55 great hitters, little on plus hitters, because that's

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think the answer is very few if not none, but like even developing into an above average header like that is so rare for his career, Benny Montgomery is a in the minors 255 331 374, but really the this contact questions in this wing of misconcerns started showing up in a much bigger way.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And again, like in the complex in low A and high A, he was striking out

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[SPEAKER_00]: In the last two years, he's been in AA, he struck out at 41.7% rate in 2024, granted pretty small sample there, just 11 games, but 86 games in 2025, marginal improvement, but still 36.3% strikeout race, just not near enough contact to get to the power that he does have, not the sort of on-based skills you want for player who has the speed that he has to impact the game on that side.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's unfortunate because players like this are so fun to watch when they do hit, but I think it's just the risk you take on.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it sort of goes back and it's stuck with me because I thought it was, I thought it was so profound because and it's not like.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This, that crazy statement, but I remember when Quinn Matthews was on the, the hot sheet show probably over a year ago at this point, but he said, you know, the only thing that tools buy used time, like, you know, whether it's raw tools as a position guy or

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[SPEAKER_01]: pure stuff as a pitcher, if you can't get the ball over the plate and throw strikes or if you can't, the baseball can consistently put it in play, everything, you know, sooner rather than later, sort of becomes kind of a moot point to your profile.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, it's the harsh reality in the game.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it's all well and good to have, you know, plus or double plus rock power, and be able to run really well and, you know, look like an NFL free safety.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But if you can't make quality contact and put the ball in play,

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[SPEAKER_01]: You're not going to get to your power and then you become a very almost anemic hitter to an extent and, you know, it's sort of leads to this domino effect, but, you know, that's why I think at least having, you know, some solid foundation of a hit tool, you know, especially in this stage of the draft like first round, like,

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they're only 30, you know, they're only 30 selections in each round, but like right to be a first round or, you know, goes that same, but like you got to be really freaking good and really freaking confident that, you know, you know, you're drafting what you think is a potentially impact big, bigger down the road and I find myself, um, finding it hard to believe in a guy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, becoming such a player, if there are like glaring it to a questions or glaring command questions, like I just, yeah, I think that's a great segue actually into this 2022 group because you're right, like you have to have a lot of confidence in the hitting ability and you need to have proven players and you want to have this players that you can just have some comfort with offensively in the first shot and that's really why that the 2022 draft

21:26.564 --> 21:36.736
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to look even worse a year from now when some of these high school players are eligible and left unprotected because we'll touch on some of them that are not trending in a direction that you can be confident they will be protected.

21:36.796 --> 21:53.095
[SPEAKER_00]: But a big chunk of these players who went unprotected from the 2022 class are players that you would say on draft day, you had a lot of confidence in them as offensive profiles.

21:53.075 --> 21:56.962
[SPEAKER_00]: well-rounded college hitters and just hitters overall in the class.

21:57.002 --> 21:58.104
[SPEAKER_00]: He made a lot of contact.

21:58.144 --> 21:58.885
[SPEAKER_00]: He got him base.

21:58.905 --> 21:59.747
[SPEAKER_00]: He hit for power.

21:59.767 --> 22:02.051
[SPEAKER_00]: He had track record in a power conference.

22:02.211 --> 22:08.181
[SPEAKER_00]: Gavin Cross, who we've talked about before, like he had this sort of tools that fit in the first round.

22:08.201 --> 22:11.768
[SPEAKER_00]: He made improvements with the swing, with the strikeout rate.

22:11.808 --> 22:17.698
[SPEAKER_00]: Kevin Pirata, it pains me so much to say this because I've loved Kevin Pirata since he was a junior.

22:17.678 --> 22:20.841
[SPEAKER_00]: in high school, and he was trending the right direction.

22:20.861 --> 22:25.707
[SPEAKER_00]: He got to college at Georgia Tech, and just continued to improve as a hitter.

22:25.727 --> 22:27.909
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a great pure hitter, added power.

22:27.969 --> 22:40.663
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not paned out, and we had a ton of confidence that he was like, it was like, brooks Lee, and then Kevin Prada, in terms of pure hitters, we're confident in, at the same time, Daniel Su-Sack, 19th overall to the A's.

22:40.703 --> 22:47.230
[SPEAKER_00]: The A's in recent years have done a really good job identifying the college hitters that they're taking this eye.

22:47.210 --> 22:50.677
[SPEAKER_00]: Eight spots higher than where he actually was selected.

22:50.717 --> 22:51.338
[SPEAKER_00]: Number 11.

22:51.378 --> 22:53.723
[SPEAKER_00]: So it was number six, parada.

22:54.043 --> 22:55.065
[SPEAKER_00]: Number eight, jiggerberry.

22:55.145 --> 22:56.268
[SPEAKER_00]: Number 10, gamma cross.

22:56.668 --> 22:57.931
[SPEAKER_00]: Number 11, Daniel, Susac.

22:57.971 --> 23:00.235
[SPEAKER_00]: The cream of the crop.

23:00.576 --> 23:04.804
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm looking back now to our 2022 draft board and you can look at this.

23:04.864 --> 23:07.750
[SPEAKER_00]: I really like that we have like toppers on the class so we can

23:09.029 --> 23:12.645
[SPEAKER_00]: really get immediately back to how we perceive the class at the time.

23:14.111 --> 23:18.229
[SPEAKER_00]: But this class was led by some high-ups at high school players.

23:18.378 --> 23:31.796
[SPEAKER_00]: Jackson Holiday to Marjonson, Elijah Green, Georgia was really strong this year for high school players, but then after that we say for teams more inclined to chase the safer college demographic, there are plenty of proven bats to be found among the top 10.

23:32.337 --> 23:35.962
[SPEAKER_00]: Brooks Lee, Kevin Pirata, have cases as best peer hitters in the class.

23:36.503 --> 23:43.913
[SPEAKER_00]: While third base first base Jacob Barry, Jason, Gavin Cross, and Camp Collier have varying degrees of high-level hitting ability and power.

23:43.893 --> 23:51.785
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, it looks like I didn't mention Daniel Sousac in in particular here, but like, it's probably worth it.

23:51.805 --> 23:53.527
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'll just pose this as a question.

23:53.908 --> 24:11.233
[SPEAKER_00]: Do we even overstate the safety of the most proven hitters in any given draft Peter or is it just the case that 2022 is more of an outlier and I think you could make the case for both here because maybe a simple number to sum this up is

24:11.348 --> 24:20.376
[SPEAKER_00]: The 63% protection rate for the 27 first time eligible first rounders this year is the lowest of any rate in the last decade.

24:20.457 --> 24:23.760
[SPEAKER_00]: So teams did just hit on players at a lower degree than his normal.

24:24.480 --> 24:31.587
[SPEAKER_00]: Of the past decade, 79.6% of first round picks are protected in their first year availability.

24:31.627 --> 24:33.769
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's, this year was far off the norm.

24:34.330 --> 24:39.094
[SPEAKER_00]: But what is it about these 22 college bats that we just missed on?

24:40.525 --> 24:41.286
[SPEAKER_01]: Good question.

24:41.366 --> 24:48.717
[SPEAKER_01]: Cause I was a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed freshman year of real-world man.

24:48.737 --> 24:52.001
[SPEAKER_01]: So I was less entrenched in it than you were at the time.

24:52.041 --> 25:01.134
[SPEAKER_01]: But in looking back on it, and again, not to go on the other side of the spectrum and continue with, I guess you could call it excuse-making.

25:01.154 --> 25:05.200
[SPEAKER_01]: But you can feel as confident as you want.

25:05.180 --> 25:18.119
[SPEAKER_01]: In a hitter or pitcher leading up to the draft, you know, whether it's even some of like a Nick Kurts or a JJ weatherhole and recent memory guys who have gone out and, you know, they were these a plus college performers.

25:18.139 --> 25:21.303
[SPEAKER_01]: They've gone on and done the same professionally and the big leagues.

25:21.804 --> 25:28.133
[SPEAKER_01]: You can feel as confident as can be in them, but you don't really know until they go out and do it like.

25:28.113 --> 25:48.197
[SPEAKER_01]: The guys themselves got to go out and do it and you mentioned, you know, these 2022 guys kind of being the more typical first round picks that we see in your right, like in running down the list with, you know, Jacob Barry, he was, you know, he had 370 I think at LSU walked more than he struck out.

25:48.177 --> 26:03.158
[SPEAKER_01]: was this really exciting at the time hit power guy without a whole lot of holes in the offensive profile like positionally it was always murky but it was at least from what I remember and like listening to B.A.

26:03.199 --> 26:05.041
[SPEAKER_01]: is a fan at the time and subscriber.

26:06.583 --> 26:09.848
[SPEAKER_01]: It was like, yeah, that's just straight.

26:09.828 --> 26:27.904
[SPEAKER_01]: There's some marking it's defensively, but yeah, that's good enough to warn a first round selection now like right was number six maybe a little rich perhaps, but you know, he's a bat that's probably gone at some point in the first round Gavin cross we mentioned a little bit with the Royal is like prototype of old.

26:28.407 --> 26:38.997
[SPEAKER_01]: big physical corner out fielder with plus power with some field of hit plus arm and then Kevin Prada, a plus performer at Jordan Tech.

26:39.017 --> 26:52.470
[SPEAKER_01]: We could keep on running down the list, but like I guess if there's a little bit of silver lining with some of these guys, like Jacob Barry, this year kind of served as a little bit of a resurgence with Triple A Jacksonville.

26:52.610 --> 26:55.933
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I was a little bit surprised that he went unprotected

26:55.913 --> 27:08.777
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, same deal with Daniel Sousac, um, I'll be in the PCL, um, which is sort of an enhancement to your offensive stats, particularly the power numbers a little bit, but Right.

27:08.858 --> 27:15.390
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets 275 with 19 doubles and 18 homers and 97 games with triple A last Vegas.

27:15.556 --> 27:27.068
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a productive year and then, you know, someone that we didn't touch on quite yet, Eric Brown, Jr., who was drafted 27th overall by Milwaukee.

27:27.605 --> 27:32.111
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't mention him only because like that's the first player like him and Reggie Crawford.

27:32.191 --> 27:36.678
[SPEAKER_00]: We both had ranked in the 50s, so I think they were like less consensus number one.

27:36.738 --> 27:54.102
[SPEAKER_00]: Once you get to like back after the first round, 27th pick for Brown, 30th pick for Reggie Crawford, I do think like the board tends to open up a little more and it's more common to see like a wide range of rankings and where players are going, but really all the four guys were talking about at the top or work consensus.

27:54.082 --> 28:20.275
[SPEAKER_00]: players that you felt super confident and I also mentioned too before you get into Eric Brown like the 2022 draft I wish it was a different draft class where this was the case but this is the first year where we started to roll out both BA grades and two grades for players and I think it was a really good calibration exercise if nothing else for me because I look back at some of these

28:20.255 --> 28:24.361
[SPEAKER_00]: Offensive tools in particular, the hit power tools that I'm throwing out here on these amateur players.

28:25.883 --> 28:29.588
[SPEAKER_00]: Like even if a lot of these guys have pinned out more, I still think a lot of the offensive tools are rich.

28:29.649 --> 28:42.407
[SPEAKER_00]: I've become a lot more conservative with the sort of tools I'm putting on amateur players and maybe part of that is just getting more experience putting the grades on them than like looking up a few years and being like, okay, that was clearly too high.

28:43.909 --> 28:45.992
[SPEAKER_00]: But certainly the

28:46.175 --> 29:01.213
[SPEAKER_00]: the amateur tool grades, I would have to actually check to see if the big grades were as maybe juice as I think the tool grades are, but certainly our tool grades on drafties now, I think are a lot more conservative and I would say like a lot more.

29:01.193 --> 29:17.228
[SPEAKER_00]: Realistic like I was I was putting out 60 60 hit tools like candy at the top of the first the first round of 22 and again Like we did think it was a good college in class, and maybe some of these classes just weren't more of those players, but

29:18.170 --> 29:26.359
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I had two, I think we had not, I think we had two sixties for hitters in this past 25 class.

29:26.980 --> 29:31.746
[SPEAKER_00]: If I'm not mistaken, I'll pull it up and double check, but I think it was literally just a case in cutting him.

29:32.446 --> 29:40.756
[SPEAKER_00]: And there was one college hitter who had a 60 hit tool on blanking on who it was, but I'll pull it up and check as you go more into Eric Brown.

29:40.796 --> 29:41.917
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't mean to cut you off on him.

29:42.458 --> 29:43.379
[SPEAKER_01]: No, no, not at all.

29:43.419 --> 29:44.160
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that

29:45.507 --> 29:58.369
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, as you mentioned and sort of reflected a little bit on the BA process and in 2022, like I think that, you know, whether it's 21 and 22 and we kind of, you know, I don't want to.

29:59.497 --> 30:07.710
[SPEAKER_01]: I guess you could call them that now, but like look at these so-called misses and you know, you see that you're looking at these epic busts.

30:10.114 --> 30:25.858
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you, I think it serves as like a good point of, you know, reflection and you reflect on your process, whether it be, you know, putting together the big grades or you're scouting process and you kind of, you know, just as you look at guys and you're like, hey, you know,

30:25.973 --> 30:29.821
[SPEAKER_00]: Just to quickly, to quickly interject, I did find our two plus hitters.

30:29.961 --> 30:33.007
[SPEAKER_00]: We did only have of the top 200 players we graded tools for.

30:33.027 --> 30:35.512
[SPEAKER_00]: We, we handed out two 60 hits.

30:36.013 --> 30:40.261
[SPEAKER_00]: Case in Cunningham, who we ranked 12th and Kate and Bowdoin, who we ranked 29th.

30:40.401 --> 30:45.231
[SPEAKER_00]: No one else had north of a 55, which makes me feel a lot better today.

30:45.312 --> 31:13.142
[SPEAKER_01]: Valid too, I think, unless like hopefully this hopefully in five years from now we can look back and say it is but I guess we'll see at least that knee jerk reaction but I think it's it's like good it's good to you know reflect on your process because like again it you know you're not going to hit on all these guys and you know it serves as a productive exercise obviously you wish it were the other way around if like hey you know we we nailed this draft or you know we nailed this pick.

31:13.122 --> 31:18.412
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, let's kind of hunt, you know, similar guys who fit this archetype perhaps in the future if they're there.

31:18.593 --> 31:22.821
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, I think it's equally productive to say, you know, hey, this didn't work.

31:23.182 --> 31:32.600
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's how we can, you know, refine our, our evil process and in scouting process and, you know, minimize these, these whiffs going forward.

31:32.620 --> 31:34.945
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know,

31:35.144 --> 31:58.485
[SPEAKER_01]: That's probably silver lining way to look at it, but you know, that is at least how how I view it both Eric Brown he was an interesting one I remember watching him go off the board in 21 in the first round and I was a little surprised that he went there.

31:58.465 --> 32:10.717
[SPEAKER_01]: like an exciting or a highlight real play perhaps to a fault like I think, you know, and watching him live a lot on the cape, you know, he would make plays more difficult than I think they needed to be.

32:10.757 --> 32:17.243
[SPEAKER_01]: And there were some swinging miss issues against right on right breaking balls and then power wise.

32:18.064 --> 32:28.033
[SPEAKER_01]: It was pretty light for a first round guy just in general

32:28.013 --> 32:31.738
[SPEAKER_01]: which is one of the more hitter friendly environments in college baseball.

32:31.758 --> 32:52.485
[SPEAKER_01]: He never hit over nine home runs in a season and you know that tracks and pro ball he hasn't hit over four home runs in a single season and the hit questions have become more exacerbated you know he's a career

32:52.600 --> 33:03.387
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, the offensive profile is it's pretty light and that was sort of my concern with him coming out of coastal.

33:03.822 --> 33:23.205
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, again, is a 22 year old type, but uh, that was, that was my knee jerk reaction upon seeing him go in the first round, um, but again, it is draft year he hit at 330 walked way more than he struck out tap more into that impact, um, with 28 extra base hits.

33:23.245 --> 33:26.269
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, you know, you can see the rationale there with him.

33:26.329 --> 33:31.956
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, it's unfair for me to sit here for five years later and be like, you know,

33:32.780 --> 33:36.044
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's why he didn't work out whereas in the moment it's more tough.

33:36.464 --> 33:55.547
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think like, I was going to say, I was like thinking through like, whether or not sometimes there are lessons to be learned in like profiles that like specific profiles or specific risks with players that like can be constructive for future years or if it's just a case that like sometimes a guy just doesn't pan out like,

33:56.675 --> 33:59.820
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think what does stand out to me about 2022.

34:00.681 --> 34:08.694
[SPEAKER_00]: I wonder if it's just as simple as like, hey, we have less performance information on these players than we do in a typical class.

34:08.774 --> 34:13.502
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the 2022 draft, people probably aren't thinking about COVID.

34:13.482 --> 34:27.825
[SPEAKER_00]: But all of these players had a smaller sample of playing time than as typical because their their freshman season, unless they were draft eligible sophomore, which we do have those involved in the picture here as well, was cut short to a significant degree.

34:27.885 --> 34:39.304
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I'm pulling up playing time for Jacob Berry, Gavin Cross, Kevin Prada, Daniel Sousa, Kevin Prada played 112 college games, 548 total plate appearances.

34:39.368 --> 34:44.080
[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob Barry, who was a draft eligible sophomore, and so I'm just completely blanking on that.

34:44.313 --> 34:59.193
[SPEAKER_00]: He played 116 games, 545 played appearances, Gavin Cross, 124 games, 585 played appearances, Daniel Seussack, I believe he was also draft eligible sophomore, 125 games, 5777 played appearances.

34:59.554 --> 35:13.813
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you look at guys like J. Slavio let, 188 games, 876 P.A.s, like Irish, 160 games, 748 P.A.s.

35:13.793 --> 35:43.530
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to lead to a lot more noise if these players had all had three full seasons of college baseball Maybe you just have more comfort and like what they actually are going to be not to say that like I got rich and and just let me let like we have them Dialed and we know exactly what they're going to be in five years, but I wonder if like The larger hit right here can be associated with COVID and just a lack of playing time for college players I just speculating But it's something that that stands out as unique to this class and the classes before it

35:44.135 --> 35:45.679
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it definitely plays a part.

35:45.779 --> 35:56.864
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it'd be a little crazy to say that it didn't, just because the sample size is far less than, you know, in a typical couple of classes with 21 and 22.

35:56.944 --> 36:01.114
[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, it's like a one of a kind wrinkle that,

36:01.550 --> 36:03.232
[SPEAKER_01]: we hopefully will never see again.

36:03.252 --> 36:09.258
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I think that definitely played a part in it, especially in 21.

36:09.439 --> 36:29.160
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, even as we talk about these college guys in 2022, they had most of their freshman years wiped out, perhaps their sophomore years disrupted a

36:29.140 --> 36:46.474
[SPEAKER_01]: Most in, I don't know about most interesting, but if Reggie Crawford can stay healthy, which has been like the big question for years now with him, like, I mean, I think he has a chance to be a potential impact arm in a big league both end now.

36:47.483 --> 37:05.695
[SPEAKER_01]: In a perfect world, you're not drafting a reliever in the first round, like I think if you could go back and redo it, you know, you're not taking a like straight reliever in the in the first, but coming out of Yukon Reggie was this, you know, highly regarded two way player and.

37:06.063 --> 37:25.337
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you want to talk about someone that would not look at a place on an NFL field like that's Reggie Crawford like he is this six four six five two hundred and 35 pounds of pure muscle like physical specimen like legit looks like he was built in the lab and I remember in 2021.

37:26.397 --> 37:31.083
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, on the cape with Jeff, who was actually, I think, preBA at that point.

37:31.123 --> 37:36.910
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's preBA me and preBA Jeff, we're watching Reggie pitch.

37:37.471 --> 37:49.706
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and still to this day, uh, it's like it's Reggie and kison with her spoon and maybe like a couple others like maybe the loudest singular outing.

37:50.106 --> 37:54.852
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw on the cape and it obviously was in a much shorter.

37:54.832 --> 38:21.042
[SPEAKER_01]: length than Tyson because Reggie came out for a couple of innings, but he was up to 101 with a being or like double plus slider and everyone sitting back there was like holy, you know what, um, but you know, he was he was wildly impressive and you know, he's dealt with his fair share of injuries, scrapped the hitting a couple of years ago and for good reason,

38:21.157 --> 38:43.789
[SPEAKER_01]: But I mean, as a lefty into the triple digits with a comfortably plus breaking ball in your back pocket, like, you know, I think he's got the chance to as I led this thing off with, you know, I think he's got a chance to be a pretty effective reliever in the big leagues, the key is just, you know, he's got to stay on the mountain, he's got to stay healthy like he's in the last.

38:44.393 --> 38:49.181
[SPEAKER_01]: Between 2023 and 2024, he didn't pitch it all in 2025.

38:49.261 --> 39:01.221
[SPEAKER_01]: So professionally, he's logged 37 and a third total innings, which is not awesome, but if you can get healthy and stand the mound, you know, he's got chance.

39:01.927 --> 39:17.134
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, Peter is throwing you guys a little bit of hope as we get to the close of this podcast, I will I will give you a little bit more despair because I think next year this 2022 draft class as a chance to continue looking a little bit dicey their number of high school players that are trending.

39:17.114 --> 39:21.160
[SPEAKER_00]: in the direction that I assume they're not going to be protected when they're eligible.

39:22.202 --> 39:28.150
[SPEAKER_00]: Like some of the high school players taking this class just to remind you guys, I'm filtering high school players on our draft database here.

39:28.211 --> 39:35.682
[SPEAKER_00]: Those Jackson Hall Day, Drew Jones, Tramar Johnson, Elijah Green, Jet Williams, don't let go Justin Crawford, Owen Murphy.

39:35.782 --> 39:37.745
[SPEAKER_00]: Those were all the players taking in the top 20.

39:38.746 --> 39:42.632
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do feel like players like Elijah Green fit over all to the nationals.

39:43.068 --> 39:47.694
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, he's just struggled so much with the strikeout rate and is not shown any sort of improvements.

39:48.315 --> 39:52.140
[SPEAKER_00]: It sounds like he might not even rank on the team's top 30 this year.

39:52.181 --> 40:01.734
[SPEAKER_00]: Dylan Lesco right handed pitcher out of Georgia who got hurt before the draft and prior to that injury he was being talked about as a potential top six player in this club.

40:01.774 --> 40:07.101
[SPEAKER_00]: I think like your comments with Reggie Crawford watching Dylan Lesco at the NHSI,

40:07.081 --> 40:12.289
[SPEAKER_00]: The spring of his draft year was one of the single most impressive appearances I've ever seen from a high school picture.

40:12.309 --> 40:24.668
[SPEAKER_00]: He's in the the tier of like Seth Hernandez McKinsey Gore for me in terms of like just the most dominant high school pictures I've seen since that injury he's just not been the same that the command has basically evaporated and never.

40:24.648 --> 40:25.509
[SPEAKER_00]: come back for him.

40:25.529 --> 40:27.452
[SPEAKER_00]: He's really struggled with walks.

40:28.013 --> 40:32.700
[SPEAKER_00]: You push further, further down the board, Brandon Barry era at 23 overall.

40:33.161 --> 40:35.044
[SPEAKER_00]: He's really struggled to stay on the field.

40:35.124 --> 40:37.328
[SPEAKER_00]: He's struggled with like maintaining the body.

40:37.348 --> 40:45.340
[SPEAKER_00]: So there're going to be some other players that are added to this 2022 group, which makes the 2021 draft look pretty good in comparison having

40:45.320 --> 40:55.012
[SPEAKER_00]: Both the high school and college players reflected, and it's just five, we've already got six I'm protected and really just the bulk of the college players have been exposed to this point.

40:55.032 --> 40:59.738
[SPEAKER_00]: So I guess we'll have to circle back a year from now and see where we're at.

40:59.818 --> 41:13.656
[SPEAKER_00]: But, Pira, I hate to use the word fun in terms of like circling back and looking at these drafts, but maybe it was instructive and useful as we we forge on ahead to the 26 class to maybe learn some lessons here.

41:14.210 --> 41:21.746
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I thought it was a, again, it all be it, you know, perhaps for the, the wrong, it was a productive exercise.

41:21.847 --> 41:28.962
[SPEAKER_01]: It's interesting to go back and and reflect on everything and reflect on these guys and, you know, see where you can.

41:29.718 --> 41:30.559
[SPEAKER_01]: you can do better.

41:30.700 --> 41:38.112
[SPEAKER_01]: So like you said, though, it'll be interesting, even as we look way, way, way ahead to a year from now.

41:38.132 --> 41:44.143
[SPEAKER_01]: Like as you laid out, there are some more candidates who will fit into this unprotected bucket.

41:44.263 --> 41:46.647
[SPEAKER_01]: Come, come 26.

41:47.555 --> 41:50.299
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I think that's going to wrap it for us today.

41:51.621 --> 41:54.265
[SPEAKER_00]: Just highlight at the end of the show here, what we've been highlighting.

41:54.285 --> 41:59.933
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got top 10s being rolled out every day, corresponding chats on those systems.

42:00.014 --> 42:05.682
[SPEAKER_00]: If you guys really want to get in the weeds with the writers of each top 10, get to know the systems as we're updating them.

42:05.662 --> 42:11.190
[SPEAKER_00]: Peter, I believe you have podries going out the day of the day of this episode airing.

42:11.210 --> 42:17.018
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to, if you're listening to this in the morning, you don't want to chat podries with Peter head on over to baseballmerica.com.

42:17.719 --> 42:23.887
[SPEAKER_00]: Big thanks to everyone who subscribes, everyone who's listening to the podcast right who in the feed supports baseball America.

42:23.907 --> 42:26.050
[SPEAKER_00]: We really do appreciate it, it can do that you.

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[SPEAKER_00]: get on top of baseball america's prospect handbook pre-ordering if you pre-order that with us you'll get access to a digital version before the physical copy shifts so if you're a fantasy player you can get ahead of the game on that side or you can just support the work that we're doing again we really really appreciate it could not do without you um before Peter on Carlos so long everybody