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[SPEAKER_02]: Hey everybody, JJ Cooper Jeff Ponce and other baseball America Prospect podcast.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We are a little blurry eyed.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We are cranking away on top 10s.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think Jeff working on Astro is right now.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm working on Tigers, but for long, we'll actually have all,

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[SPEAKER_02]: The National League Top 10s.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If you have not been over to Baseball Market.com, National League Top 10s all there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We are now rolling on on the American League by the time you are listening to this.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Just Blue Days will be up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: My raise went up as we report this on Tuesday.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Red sucks up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We will be done with the ALE Snext week.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We have thanksgiving onto the central, onto the west.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You're going to turn around.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to have 300 scouting reports up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And then we'll turn around, finish up the prospect handbook and then post up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We'll have 900 scouting reports.

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[SPEAKER_02]: because we will go to 40 eventually for all the works.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I want to go to 120, but I think Jeff's the only one willing to go along with me on that, you know, like you, but you know, someday.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But great to see everybody glad you are.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Hope everyone is you're listening to this.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Probably a lot of you traveling.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Hope you have safe travels.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If you are in the US, you know, our Canadian and other listeners, I apologize that I'm not wish you Thanksgiving.

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[SPEAKER_02]: on our fix it series.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We are looking at the Jakarta wide sox.

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[SPEAKER_02]: A team that I think you could say, no one's gonna ask the question, wait, they need fixing because obviously, if you are listening to this, you remember the the white sox 2024 season, which is a season that needed as much fixing as ever.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And that's where we're gonna start this, which is,

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[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think I'm telling anything that any white sucks fan doesn't know, but Jeff, the good news is, is that, you know, you always, the, the, the, the night is darkest, always before dawn.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Rock bottom has already happened here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They're on the way back up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not saying that they're, that the playoffs is right around the bend or anything like that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But it's not going to be as bad as it was two years ago, any time soon, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Please, I hope.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think so.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, JJ, they want a whole 60 games last season, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Lester, one of the biggest improvements in Major League Baseball exactly, you know, a 19-win improvement.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there you go.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty substantial, but I think when you look at this team, even from that,

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[SPEAKER_01]: 2014 that was all time bad, but we've talked about maybe wasn't the all-time worst team that might be the Rockies from last year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's some exciting stuff going on at the top.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Lot of young players 26 years old or younger.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Louis Robert, Opsen for another year, we'll see where that situation goes if they got a full healthy season, he goes into the free agent market and full somebody, or if you know, he's a player that they can trade or on the trade deadline that, you know, he's healthy and performing well and up that they can actually get some return form.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That will be interesting, but I think you look through out this lineup.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are some positive stuff that you can kind of say about all these guys in terms of hitters.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Even lenient so-so had a pretty good season last year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Brooks proposed when it's really a bench player.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I think he's a nice bench player, a switch hitter with some speed, can play a bunch of different positions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Not going to hit for a ton of power, but can get on base and you know, put the ball.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he didn't have to say that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He did the opposite last year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the 400 slug, but the 290o BP.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that was an outlier season, frankly, just having watched a lot of Brooks Baldwin over the years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think he was probably looking for a little bit more power, found it in some regards.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if that was a worthwhile trade off.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I think, like I said, at least like it's a bench player, I think there's some worthwhile stuff you can say there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And

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[SPEAKER_01]: By and large, they've done okay with pitching over the years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it hasn't been as bad as it may be should have been.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's still a lot of number five, number six, number seven, starter types and this rotation, frankly though.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Some interesting bullpen pieces, though, like Fassel, Jordan Leisure, and Grant Taylor, I think are all really really interesting, and there's some other good stuff that's traded for Chris Murphy, Wilco Min-Gun-Zawas, a lot of former red socks in this team, too, those two teams have been obviously making some trades over the years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I kind of look at this and I think like where we're starting from, they don't have Paul schemes or Connor Griffin like the Pirates did, but from an all around holistic perspective, it's not terrible.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It could, it could be worse as what I'm saying.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So here's the crazy thing to take a little bit more of a step back before we take a step forward and look ahead.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The other crazy part about this is the white socks actually had a rebuild a pretty significant one.

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[SPEAKER_02]: at the end of the 2010s, right?

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[SPEAKER_02]: And there was a debate at that time, you know, is this the best farm system, basically, we never had a number one.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It had a number four, braids were number one, feel very good about that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The braids did have a better farm system at the time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The braids did have more success than that farm system.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But they also, I do feel like the white socks were a little bit of a victim of timing.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They're kind of their system kind of peaked.

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[SPEAKER_02]: right in time for 2020, which is kind of that weird year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There were 35 and 25.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They went to the playoffs, but it's that weird year, quick wild card eggs that you don't know how good that team would have been over 162.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Then they wouldn't 93 the year after that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like at that point, if you said, you still had Moncada, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert to just showed up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There was pitching here, like you would have said, core here's in their 20s other than a Brayue, like this is really gonna go go, go well, it should go well.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And McCotta started getting hurt.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Robert had some good years, but not that match up with the other guys here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Tim Anderson surprisingly hit a cliff where he went from being really good to not really a regular in a pretty short period of time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And so here we are, they had to completely restart.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I would say, and I've said this on other podcasts, but like they went, they promoted criss-cats.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I do think that when you promote from within and you're trying to rebuild the structure of an organization that's a really challenging job, because you're having someone who's already there say we have to make different approach.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We have to take a different approach.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But I do think the Chris Gets has really kind of modernized some things here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You mentioned on the pitching side, they obviously went out and brought in pitching experts.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I would say for the outside of Brian Bannisters and people like that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They've really kind of made some adjustments, made some improvements.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't mean it's perfect or anything like that, but we are seeing some changes.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That kind of ties in then Jeff to which is like, you hit on it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: a successful year as far as much more successful than the year before, where they were playing, I would say, a slow position players who were in their last chance or their only chance to really get significant playing time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But that's where this gets a little tricky, which is, okay, looking at their big league team before we get onto the farm system, who are the core players here?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Who are the players that you say, this is who you're going to build a successful white

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[SPEAKER_02]: That's a long pause.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if there are any.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I think you kind of look Kyle Teele is a nice player.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we think there's some more offensive upside there potentially.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The defense that catcher wasn't great in his first year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But we'll see what an oral Aquaro.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Quero, I think is worse defense, even worse defense.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Quero was as bad a framer as anyone in the non, like a Justin Ramirez division.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think the blocking with Teal is really what the issue is, but that's the kind of thing that can get cleaned up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think we're looking at Kyle Teal and while I don't think Colson Montgomery's a franchise type of player where I thought there was maybe a chance for that when he was in the lower levels.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he had really good plate skills and power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And like, more power will come.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He kind of was out in the desert for 40 days and 40 nights in Charlotte for a year plus.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then the quality of contact showed up, the approach is still pretty bad.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Y'all hope he may be make some gains in terms of the swing decisions that like I said, had previously been there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And usually you don't see them bottom out like they had.

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[SPEAKER_01]: and the bats a ball that used to be there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That stuff can tighten up a little bit because he has showed it before.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, this isn't a guy that walked into Pro Ball with a ton of swinging miss issues or bad swing decision like issues.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He wasn't a player like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So the fact that the power and the quality contact has really shown up, and it is, it's plus quality of contact.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of dig into barrel rate and all that sort of stuff.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You're even kind of surprised

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[SPEAKER_01]: Some of his numbers from a year ago, which I think is a little shocking, like his, his, his, um, expected Wooba is just under what, what he, uh, he actually produced, um, but it was a 14.4% barrel rate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he had a 114.5 max, um, really steep launch angles, you know, 44% hard hit rate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So he's hitting the ball hard.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Well, just to the contact rate, gonna stay at a level to allow them to get to that really.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's what the issue is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the zone contacts 82%, it's not awful, you know, it had been 88% in AAA this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think some of it is gonna come down to those swing decisions because he really makes a very low amount of contact outside of the zone.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are some guys that run a little higher zone contact rates.

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[SPEAKER_01]: he runs his little lower.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's a approach stuff that can get cleaned up and in turn that will probably mitigate some of the swing and miss risk to a point that his profile could be really stable.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This could be a guy that hits 250 with 30 on runs and more walks.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like this could come into fruition.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was a really positive

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[SPEAKER_01]: development for him, that the quality of contact was as good as it was this year in the majors.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's positive to see as a guy who's going to be 24 years old and into next season.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I always say the other thing I think was a very positive development.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's a better defender than what we thought he was going to be coming into the big leagues.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, there was a lot of talk when he was in the mind, especially when he was in a lower mind, it's like, is this guy going to move to third base?

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[SPEAKER_02]: And

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[SPEAKER_02]: No, this guy is like he's a solid, short stop at the big league level right away above average really as far as a lot of the metrics.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And that's really the positive element.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, got an interesting little comparison I want to throw out for you and we'll do that right after this quick break.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I just got done doing the race top 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If we had had this conversation a year ago and we'd have talked about Carson Williams and Colson at Gummery, it would have been like, Carson Williams is a better shortstop prospect.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They call some Gummery.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Both have some questions, but Gummery's a better defender.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, William's a better defender.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Montgomery might have a little bit more power, but they both have seating in fit power.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Williams is made more content.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Here we are 12 months later,

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[SPEAKER_02]: Montgomery's gone off and done it in the big leagues.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Williams makes the big leagues and did not do it, hit some homers, but also struck out 40% of the time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I bring this up because I actually the more I thought about it like you said, I do think that Montgomery has a little bit of a better base of offensive skills because the contact in zone is better and that's a real problem for Williams and that's a bigger problem to me than a guy

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like you said, Montgomery says, don't chase.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Williams is figuring out how to make more contact in the zone.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I would rather have the don't chase as my next up on my to do list than the figure out to make more contact.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think this is much adjustability to William swing, but it does bring me up, and just I want to bring it up like this is where I do think he could be a cornerstone guy, but there's also still a volatility here, is that we're now saying with William's like bottom of the orderback, who could hit for some power, you know, but

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[SPEAKER_02]: probably the hit tool is going to be a real question for him.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I do think the gummery still does face some significant hit tool questions.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It would surprise me if he had a 2026 where the power is still there, the defense takes a slice to back because he was really good defensively.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's still really good.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But then you say, okay, the contact rate went down, the swing decisions weren't great.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And so he turned around and it's like, okay, he still walks on, but it's a good season, it's a solid season, not a great season.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But that's to me, like I kind of look at one of the catchers in him, kind of have to be core here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If this seems gonna be successful, because the other guys that we're talking about

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[SPEAKER_02]: Now, that kind of, as we kind of step into the bigger picture.

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[SPEAKER_02]: When you look at this, I obviously Andrew von last year, like what he did with Milwaukee's not great, that you had this guy and, you know, you basically jettison him and, oh, like, the brewers are like magic wand.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Here you are.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You're now the player that the white socks hope you would be for multiple years.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That's not a great one, but again, that happens to a lot of teams.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's not something where that's unique to the white socks that a player doesn't click for that big glitch.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's not something else.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Now we're going to look into the farm system.

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[SPEAKER_02]: This is the better farm system, but is there enough here?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Where do you think that there are still areas that have to be improved, have to be kind of filled out for this team to get back to?

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[SPEAKER_02]: playoff content should never if that's what we're trying to get to when we talk about fixing these tapes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's going to start with a couple of these higher ends pitching prospects, finally clicking or somebody in this top 10, finally clicking.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you can look at

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think both of them could be rotation pieces, maybe they're not the super high end left handed duo.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We thought they were previously.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're still pretty good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really high on Tanner McDoo.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that he's potentially a top 100 type of arm.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's really good stuff, strike throwing improved a lot this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's looking good at higher levels, gets weaker contact.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think overall,

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's a really exciting pitching prospect, and then I think you look at Christian Oprah and it kind of gives him this trio of good lefties with good stuff.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he has some of the best starter stuff in the miners full stop.

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[SPEAKER_01]: One of the hardest throwing left handers in the miners in all of professional baseball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think you know maybe hitting on

17:20.105 --> 17:37.282
[SPEAKER_01]: one of those guys in a big way or two of them is like mid rotation type of arms could go a long way to kind of establishing this also frees up a little bit of money to go out and maybe fill in some gaps in the position side because they do think they need a couple of top of the order bats.

17:37.322 --> 17:39.868
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'd like to see them more.

17:39.848 --> 17:53.872
[SPEAKER_01]: dynamic lead off hitter, and they need sort of like the guy, you know, the steal a phrase from Reggie Jackson, but they kind of need the straw that stirs the drink here, because I don't think it's going to be called some Montgomery or Kyle Teele.

17:54.393 --> 18:01.905
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they can be your two hitter or your, or your, you know, four or five hitters fine, but you need that three, four hitter.

18:02.386 --> 18:04.590
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to really sort of, um,

18:04.570 --> 18:07.654
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, push everything, right, that makes everything sort of work.

18:07.674 --> 18:14.484
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we saw that with the blue jays with a guy like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Red Sox line up with Roman Anthony was in that mix.

18:15.245 --> 18:17.468
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if they have that guy right now.

18:17.488 --> 18:20.612
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Caleb Bonamer has a lot of upside.

18:21.073 --> 18:21.714
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he draw.

18:21.754 --> 18:31.928
[SPEAKER_01]: He's for me, a lot of comparisons to Gunnar Henderson terms of their skill sets, their size, the types of players that they are, some questions, their base shortstop.

18:33.275 --> 18:45.509
[SPEAKER_01]: but he's probably the great hope here and this system right now that he can sort of become that, otherwise they'll have to go out in the freeage of marketing trying to find someone like that way, I pick it.

18:47.031 --> 18:51.016
[SPEAKER_02]: That kind of ties into another big picture question here.

18:51.036 --> 18:52.277
[SPEAKER_02]: We're gonna hit on a little bit more.

18:52.938 --> 18:56.262
[SPEAKER_02]: That is when you look at this pitching,

18:58.739 --> 19:00.982
[SPEAKER_02]: as you said, there's more here than there was.

19:01.022 --> 19:01.964
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the most important thing.

19:02.224 --> 19:04.307
[SPEAKER_02]: I do think also we got to give them a lot of credit.

19:04.627 --> 19:06.710
[SPEAKER_02]: You mentioned Mike Vassel, Shane Smith, Mike Vassel.

19:07.712 --> 19:11.858
[SPEAKER_02]: The white socks did in the rule five what you dream of doing in the rule five.

19:12.298 --> 19:23.875
[SPEAKER_02]: They literally added, I don't know how often you could say this and I say that as someone, two people here on this podcast of studying the rule five or that as much as anyone out there in the world.

19:23.995 --> 19:28.341
[SPEAKER_02]: But you do not see a team say, hey,

19:28.743 --> 19:36.154
[SPEAKER_02]: primary reliever in year one and our front of the rotation ace in year one of a rule five draft and they did that.

19:36.294 --> 19:47.089
[SPEAKER_02]: Jing, now in the long run, I don't know if you want Shane Smith to be your ace, but he is 100% a guy who now you pencil in as being a key part of your rotation for years to come.

19:47.710 --> 19:51.199
[SPEAKER_02]: I would say with that so like I'm a that was a great year.

19:51.279 --> 19:59.239
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm a little more concerned like part of the value of it is is he threw 100 innings as a reliever he had three starts feels we're a lever.

20:00.502 --> 20:03.225
[SPEAKER_02]: That's incredible in modern-day palettes.

20:03.765 --> 20:04.867
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't see that anymore.

20:05.327 --> 20:08.631
[SPEAKER_02]: Mark Icon, Mike Marshall, kind of tip, well, not Mike Marshall.

20:08.651 --> 20:11.293
[SPEAKER_02]: Mike Marshall's like, you don't have 200 innings out of the pen.

20:11.634 --> 20:12.415
[SPEAKER_02]: Then what do you do it?

20:12.535 --> 20:18.241
[SPEAKER_02]: But Mark Icon, guys, like, who'd used to do this where you used to see guys throw 100 plus things that were leaf work.

20:18.721 --> 20:19.842
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not something you see nowadays.

20:20.884 --> 20:23.827
[SPEAKER_02]: I just worry there's gonna be a little bit of a return just like, because that's hard to do.

20:24.908 --> 20:28.872
[SPEAKER_02]: But, and you look on the minor league side,

20:30.623 --> 20:32.025
[SPEAKER_02]: You kind of hit on this.

20:32.966 --> 20:35.409
[SPEAKER_02]: It's really about one of these guys on the pitching side.

20:35.449 --> 20:55.313
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I think like Noah Schultz is the guy who, you could very plausibly say when you look at his age, when you look at how he's looked at his best, when you consider the fact that often these prep first round or don't really hit their full stride until year six or seven after they were drafted.

20:56.975 --> 20:59.398
[SPEAKER_02]: If it all breaks right, he could be an ace,

21:00.307 --> 21:09.559
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be more of kind of throwing quantity at here and hoping that something sticks that it is that you have slam dunk like this is not we have.

21:09.599 --> 21:17.329
[SPEAKER_02]: Trace avid you already done in the big leagues, you know already now or you know, Bubba Chandler it's a little bit more.

21:17.389 --> 21:24.778
[SPEAKER_02]: hesitancy isn't it that there's the clear like this is what their rotation is going to look like in 27 and 28.

21:29.467 --> 21:49.146
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, um, you know, it's, it's just, it's very difficult to predict what direction um, shelter's going to go, you know, um, at least, at least I really, really struggle with trying to project how long it's going to take for, for all that to click.

21:50.695 --> 21:53.759
[SPEAKER_01]: It might take three years, and then it's really, really good.

21:54.861 --> 21:59.146
[SPEAKER_01]: But some of these longer limb sort of left handers take a while.

21:59.186 --> 22:05.995
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think just based on what we saw with Hagen Smith, though the reports and AFL were better.

22:08.018 --> 22:09.540
[SPEAKER_01]: It's still real reliever risker.

22:09.901 --> 22:10.862
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, a little concerning.

22:10.922 --> 22:13.125
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think reliever risk or just.

22:13.257 --> 22:29.832
[SPEAKER_01]: maybe number four starter, which is not what you wanted to get at the top of that draft in particular, where there are some pretty good players, some of those impact guys that went after Hagan Smith that you could have gotten for maybe less money, someone like, I don't know, Connor Griffin.

22:31.837 --> 22:36.201
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's one that I, I feel like that we will be talking about that.

22:36.281 --> 22:45.189
[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't go nearly as late as my trout did, but I just feel that there will be retrospective stories for years that are like, oh, this guy, last that long in the draft.

22:47.030 --> 22:49.453
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, that's coming, yeah, I think that's coming.

22:50.373 --> 23:01.303
[SPEAKER_02]: But as you said, the other thing that does jump out here, though, is that there are, you know, more of these now, more names now.

23:02.026 --> 23:15.444
[SPEAKER_02]: that could kind of like, you know, you hit on a couple of them, like, if a, you know, if a McDougal or a Christian opera, you know, kind of takes another step forward, right?

23:15.544 --> 23:19.790
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, they've got kind of relief arms here as well.

23:20.771 --> 23:29.923
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't want to forget about some of these guys who, you know, kind of, they've had guys with injuries and I was like, we don't forget about

23:31.220 --> 23:51.144
[SPEAKER_02]: I do feel like that it does feel to me like for all of this to sync up on the pitching side, it's still a little nebulous to me that you're going to get this group to the rotation you need to have without bringing in some outside.

23:51.765 --> 24:00.636
[SPEAKER_02]: Hey, without killing it in the role 5 draft for a second straight year, which by the

24:01.493 --> 24:13.451
[SPEAKER_02]: hitting it, really hitting it on a fast moving guy in the other draft, that secondary little draft that we have in July every year, that does happen to produce a few more players in the little five draft.

24:13.471 --> 24:25.809
[SPEAKER_02]: But in that draft, you're like, if they really hit there or something like that, but I would say on the position player side, the question is, who's the most important position prospect?

24:25.929 --> 24:26.931
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you've already named him.

24:27.452 --> 24:30.977
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, I know that Brave Montgomery was,

24:31.278 --> 24:32.479
[SPEAKER_02]: in the Garic crochet trade.

24:33.720 --> 24:46.472
[SPEAKER_02]: Caleb Bonnerer, if this team is going to a year from now, be really on the cusp, it's because we're talking about Caleb Bonnerer top 10 prospect in the game, right?

24:46.552 --> 24:53.178
[SPEAKER_02]: Like that's the, that's the, I'm not utterly crazy to think that that's a possibility question.

24:53.198 --> 24:54.939
[SPEAKER_02]: Isn't it like they could happen?

24:55.119 --> 24:56.241
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not saying it's going to.

24:56.301 --> 24:59.023
[SPEAKER_02]: The Caleb Bonnerer could be that kind of guy,

25:00.488 --> 25:19.876
[SPEAKER_01]: I think so, you know, I think when you look at this guy, now granted most of it was in LoA, and I know there's been some questions I asked to the quality of LoA play over the last couple of years, but I think he's sort of put it into a vacuum, his age, his experience level.

25:19.916 --> 25:23.581
[SPEAKER_01]: Age to level was perfectly fine.

25:24.182 --> 25:27.627
[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't like he was old for the level of more advanced.

25:27.944 --> 25:29.908
[SPEAKER_01]: But she had a really good underlying plate skills.

25:29.968 --> 25:34.676
[SPEAKER_01]: Had one like rough month in June, but otherwise was really good throughout the rest of the season.

25:35.457 --> 25:38.703
[SPEAKER_01]: Sheows plus underlying power, pretty good angles.

25:39.765 --> 25:42.109
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, good swing decisions.

25:42.570 --> 25:46.898
[SPEAKER_01]: He's gonna stick in the dirt, whether it's shortstop or third base, kind of remains.

25:46.996 --> 25:49.320
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, up for some debate can run a little bit as well.

25:49.841 --> 26:02.221
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think just like a really good all around player with athleticism, remaining projection and a really nice foundation of hit tool power in approach, which matters a lot.

26:02.281 --> 26:07.570
[SPEAKER_01]: I think when you kind of marry those three more often than not you're looking at major league average hitters are better.

26:09.659 --> 26:15.592
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, if he's the key guy, what's your feeling of optimism that Braden Montgomery could be?

26:15.913 --> 26:17.677
[SPEAKER_02]: We said they need middlely order bats.

26:18.940 --> 26:20.884
[SPEAKER_02]: Can Braden Montgomery be that middlely order bat?

26:21.961 --> 26:24.564
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, switching power is very rare, right?

26:24.825 --> 26:34.837
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that he has 30 home run underlying power can get on base, can probably be that number four, number five, number six kind of guy, right?

26:36.038 --> 26:51.377
[SPEAKER_01]: Just in terms of a guy who drives and runs, hits the ball hard, you're not gonna bank on him for hitting above 250, 260, probably.

26:51.830 --> 26:53.975
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like you can feel pretty confident.

26:53.995 --> 27:06.244
[SPEAKER_01]: You can put Brandon Montgomery into a corner outfield spot and he's going to give you a reasonably good defense with, you know, a plus plus arm out there can make all the throws can run a little bit.

27:06.494 --> 27:08.417
[SPEAKER_01]: hit for some power, we'll get on base.

27:08.457 --> 27:10.561
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll probably be some swing and miss as well.

27:11.523 --> 27:22.322
[SPEAKER_01]: But could be like a 240, 330, four 90 to five, 20 slug kind of guy with 25 plus home runs.

27:22.362 --> 27:28.653
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can be like a higher-end complimentary piece, like your third best hitter on a playoff team.

27:28.673 --> 27:31.017
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's a reasonable expectation.

27:30.997 --> 27:37.306
[SPEAKER_01]: But if he's your best hit or your best power hitter, I don't know if that's necessarily such a good thing.

27:39.469 --> 27:42.353
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, so let's just kind of put this all together then.

27:44.796 --> 27:50.284
[SPEAKER_02]: I would say like, okay, for let's we'll start with the optimistic approach.

27:50.304 --> 27:50.845
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.

27:51.702 --> 28:07.024
[SPEAKER_02]: As you said, like, okay, I think you've laid out a little bit of a, of a possible everything breaks right in 2026 Avenue here, which is, let's say, okay, for one, Louis Robert has kind of the healthy, hey, he's not dead yet.

28:07.224 --> 28:11.971
[SPEAKER_02]: Just look at your reminder of what he could be, what he's been in the past kind of season.

28:12.772 --> 28:17.980
[SPEAKER_02]: And that doesn't mean that you then long term, it means that you then spin him at the deadline.

28:18.145 --> 28:21.994
[SPEAKER_02]: you know and say great we're going to bring in some additional reinforcements with that.

28:23.678 --> 28:35.867
[SPEAKER_02]: Colson Montgomery improves like you said some of the underlying skills that he has demonstrated at times in his minor league career earlier in his minor league career where you say okay.

28:36.556 --> 28:41.221
[SPEAKER_02]: Then that is kind of one of you the three big batch you're looking for because then you have a short stop.

28:41.841 --> 28:51.471
[SPEAKER_02]: You could be really talking about a four type of four warp type player there because you're talking about player going to give you defense can give you power get on base not great batting averages but enough right.

28:53.834 --> 28:59.239
[SPEAKER_02]: We find one of these starters again we just laid out three four five possibilities.

28:59.920 --> 29:04.605
[SPEAKER_02]: That takes a step forward in 25 I mean 26 I mean 26 I mean to where okay.

29:05.969 --> 29:11.334
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't, you're gonna see a little bit of aggression, not every one of these guys who had a good year last year.

29:12.195 --> 29:23.546
[SPEAKER_02]: Miguel Vargas or Chase Meadroth or you know, some of these guys, let's just be honest, one of them may take a step forward and one of them may take a step back where you go, oh, okay, because that's just normal, right?

29:24.087 --> 29:34.137
[SPEAKER_02]: Same thing we're talking about with the marlins, where we're like, a lot of players had good years today, that's good, but at the same time, if you're counting on all these guys to have it again, maybe a little worrisome.

29:35.315 --> 29:58.846
[SPEAKER_02]: I think to all that could happen, then that would have them, I would say not, I mean, that gives them to 75 wins, maybe this year, but then that would get them to the point where next off season you are saying, okay, now how do we, this is the team that has shown in the past they can't spend, they're in Chicago, you know, okay, yes, they're the, they're not the big team in Chicago, they're not the big revenue, but they're in Chicago.

30:00.508 --> 30:02.571
[SPEAKER_02]: All that could be then pointing towards a 27.

30:05.116 --> 30:07.927
[SPEAKER_02]: The flip side of that though is is, and I want to see what you thought.

30:07.947 --> 30:14.834
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, but this one just feels like it's perched on something a little bit more precarious here is what I would say, right?

30:15.135 --> 30:15.818
[SPEAKER_02]: Like,

30:15.983 --> 30:21.251
[SPEAKER_02]: I know that Pirates fans are understandably skeptical, but I look at where Pittsburgh is right now.

30:21.331 --> 30:24.797
[SPEAKER_02]: And barring injuries, it's hard for me to imagine that I'm not getting better.

30:25.257 --> 30:28.382
[SPEAKER_02]: Because Connor Griffins of the World make you better.

30:28.923 --> 30:32.369
[SPEAKER_02]: Paul schemes of the world with additional help make you better.

30:32.849 --> 30:36.094
[SPEAKER_02]: Deep pitching staff of guys who have already reached the majors all that.

30:39.400 --> 30:42.885
[SPEAKER_02]: What do you think the chances are that this team is

30:43.220 --> 30:46.203
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, 85 wind team, that's a modest level.

30:46.263 --> 30:48.745
[SPEAKER_02]: But can get to 85 winds in the next few years.

30:49.946 --> 30:59.614
[SPEAKER_02]: Or what are you think are the chances that this is a rebuild that could kind of, hey, put 20, 24 far beyond behind them.

31:00.235 --> 31:11.305
[SPEAKER_02]: That could kind of peter out where it's like there's just not enough ammo here to get them from, hey, it could get them from 41 winds to let's say 80, but it's going to have trouble getting them beyond that.

31:11.705 --> 31:12.906
[SPEAKER_02]: Is that a real risk here?

31:13.949 --> 31:28.478
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a real risk, and I think it's going to depend on how those pictures kind of bounce back, particularly salts, if Smith can bounce back a little bit, and it's more in line with the reports that we heard in AFL.

31:29.680 --> 31:32.646
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, I think that's totally reasonable.

31:32.666 --> 31:33.848
[SPEAKER_01]: If you have

31:34.098 --> 31:40.252
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a multi-pronged, you know, all these pictures, they have the four guys that we laid out if they all click.

31:41.214 --> 31:46.707
[SPEAKER_01]: And Caleb Bonamer turns into that on our Henderson type of guy.

31:47.699 --> 31:52.164
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's reasonable to think that there is a chance that they could be an 85 plus one team.

31:52.605 --> 31:58.292
[SPEAKER_01]: It's probably going to take two years, I think at minimum, we'll see what they get in the draft over the next couple of years.

31:59.313 --> 32:10.006
[SPEAKER_01]: If there's any other pitching developments, because I think that while Smith and Schultz took a step back, I feel like throughout this system, it got a little bit better.

32:10.426 --> 32:13.470
[SPEAKER_01]: And we do know that, like with Manchester and in charge, there is some

32:14.092 --> 32:38.648
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, organizational development structure there that probably works a little bit and they're getting a little bit more out of position players and they've gotten in a while so like I think there's some positives here so I don't want to be totally negative but it it's going to take some guys in the minors turning into the stars in order for this to be like an 86 to 90 when team by 2028.

32:39.978 --> 32:41.804
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's what the real concern is.

32:41.885 --> 32:42.768
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's tough.

32:43.731 --> 32:48.267
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, when we were talking about the Orioles a few years ago before they won 100 games,

32:48.719 --> 32:51.244
[SPEAKER_01]: it was kind of banking on the prospects all clicking.

32:51.564 --> 32:59.278
[SPEAKER_01]: And they might have had a little bit more at the major league level in terms like a Cedric Mullins and Santander and some of the good bit more, I think.

32:59.298 --> 32:59.859
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, actually.

32:59.879 --> 33:00.621
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know.

33:01.362 --> 33:09.957
[SPEAKER_01]: So we just have to see how this crop of prospects sort of matriculates and what they look like once they're in the big leagues and settled in.

33:09.997 --> 33:10.879
[SPEAKER_01]: So.

33:10.859 --> 33:33.846
[SPEAKER_01]: I would put it in probably 70, 30 that it's not going to exceed 85 wins in the next couple of years, but there's still a chance better than it is for the Iraqis and some of these other teams we've talked about and I have a little bit more confidence that they might

33:34.366 --> 33:36.509
[SPEAKER_02]: That's where I would say, that's the key thing I would say here.

33:36.649 --> 33:44.879
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it sounds easy to say with the pirates to say spend more money, and we've said like that the pirates absolutely should spend money now to kind of get this team where it needs to go.

33:46.180 --> 33:49.064
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the white socks are one that they've shown in the past.

33:49.084 --> 33:55.332
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, okay, this year is the understandly, there's no need to spend the money yet.

33:55.432 --> 33:59.817
[SPEAKER_02]: This is the year to still figure out where your strengths are and where your weaknesses are.

34:00.387 --> 34:05.874
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you're gonna get this team where you need it to go, at some point it's gonna probably need a push, right?

34:06.014 --> 34:14.764
[SPEAKER_02]: And that push would be, hey, we need one more starter and we need a fill in the like third basement, first basement, outfielder, whatever it is.

34:14.825 --> 34:29.162
[SPEAKER_02]: And you say, okay, so we're gonna go out and get those two guys on the free agent market and not in the, hey, this guy was terrible last year but we're hoping that he's, you know, a pillow contract that'll make good.

34:30.121 --> 34:31.883
[SPEAKER_02]: actually bring in somebody.

34:31.943 --> 34:32.964
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, you're the white socks.

34:33.065 --> 34:39.833
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a team that running 150 million dollar payroll should not be a crazy number of items such as meditation.

34:40.033 --> 34:41.375
[SPEAKER_02]: There are no we're close to that right now.

34:41.815 --> 34:44.278
[SPEAKER_02]: So there's room for that potentially.

34:44.779 --> 34:49.585
[SPEAKER_02]: And this team is not one where the stars, the young stars, they haven't got to get expensive real soon.

34:50.165 --> 34:55.051
[SPEAKER_02]: So, there's a foundation here to maybe get somewhere.

34:55.892 --> 34:58.896
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I think that our summation of is how you fix this,

34:59.922 --> 35:01.224
[SPEAKER_02]: They're moving in the right direction.

35:01.284 --> 35:08.175
[SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time, it's not fully established yet to where you could comfortably say, yeah.

35:08.856 --> 35:12.842
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, we've had teams over the years where you look at, it's like, yeah, they're really bad now.

35:13.743 --> 35:15.165
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's going to be hard for them.

35:15.546 --> 35:19.492
[SPEAKER_02]: When we talk about those Seattle teams that we looked at in the early 2020s, right?

35:19.813 --> 35:22.757
[SPEAKER_02]: And you're like, whoa, look at what they're doing on the pitching side now.

35:23.210 --> 35:25.935
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, they've got who you're Rodriguez who's a star making.

35:25.955 --> 35:28.339
[SPEAKER_02]: We didn't know that Cal Rawley was going to give them a second star.

35:28.640 --> 35:33.829
[SPEAKER_02]: But like when you have that, then all of a sudden, you're a playoff team.

35:33.849 --> 35:37.716
[SPEAKER_02]: We're not there yet, but we've just laid out hopefully some ways that this could.

35:38.177 --> 35:42.865
[SPEAKER_02]: If we're talking about Caleb Bonham or Top 10 prospect next year, that'll help, you know.

35:43.466 --> 35:44.408
[SPEAKER_02]: If we're talking about

35:44.810 --> 35:52.861
[SPEAKER_02]: Hey, yeah, Braiden Montgomery's ready to be at 25 home run guy, even if it's, you know, again, not the number one guy in the lineup, but the number two, the number three guy.

35:53.542 --> 35:54.563
[SPEAKER_02]: There's ways to get there.

35:54.623 --> 36:02.854
[SPEAKER_02]: There's, which we could not have said, if you would, if we are trying to fix it on the 20 going into the 20, 24 season, like South, the answer to that you can't fix this.

36:03.555 --> 36:04.877
[SPEAKER_02]: This is not fixable right now.

36:04.897 --> 36:08.201
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a band and hope all who are in or here.

36:08.361 --> 36:09.523
[SPEAKER_02]: And that is where they were.

36:09.583 --> 36:11.205
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not there now.

36:11.540 --> 36:15.704
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see, is there anything else that you're looking at before we wrap this up yet?

36:16.104 --> 36:28.577
[SPEAKER_02]: Anything else that if you're a white sucks fan or just a fan of rebuilds, something else that you would look for, like this is something to watch for in 20s, going into 26 or in 26 going forward with this dude?

36:28.597 --> 36:39.167
[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't talk about either of these guys, but I think potential breakouts from Billy Carlson and Jayden Bowsky,

36:39.569 --> 36:44.074
[SPEAKER_01]: Both guys that depending on who you talk to have some big fans.

36:45.636 --> 36:47.818
[SPEAKER_01]: Falsky is a guy that I think can really hit.

36:48.799 --> 37:05.577
[SPEAKER_01]: There's some questions about, you know, where we end up defensively, but there's there's power field to hit Carlson's a guy with a lot of defensive ability, big athlete, a lot of projection questions about what he's going to be with the bat.

37:06.215 --> 37:29.168
[SPEAKER_01]: If he can make some developments in this sort of dead period between the draft and when he steps on foot on a field and minor league spring training, we've seen this happen over the last couple years, where guys make drastic swing changes and improve, I don't think he's going to be Connor Griffin, but strong athlete really good defender if the bad improves enough.

37:29.840 --> 37:50.835
[SPEAKER_01]: That could be another thing, at least in the farm system to watch for and say, okay, now we have maybe these two guys emerge, this top 10 looks really good to the point that those two guys kind of taking a step forward and proving they can hit and pro ball maybe could push this top 10 into top

37:50.984 --> 37:55.589
[SPEAKER_01]: five top three conversation, especially if the pitcher's bounce back.

37:56.250 --> 37:59.974
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's like the makings of a really good top ten and farm system here.

38:00.975 --> 38:03.979
[SPEAKER_01]: Just some things have to continue to go in the right direction, 2026.

38:04.059 --> 38:11.988
[SPEAKER_02]: There's one other thing I'll say that if we're talking about this team a year from now, get ready.

38:12.008 --> 38:15.692
[SPEAKER_02]: Winter meetings are coming, draft lotteries held at the winter meetings.

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[SPEAKER_02]: team with the highest odds right now.

38:18.154 --> 38:25.865
[SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, because of the way it fell, even higher odds really normally you have these couple of teams at the top of the highest odds.

38:25.885 --> 38:31.353
[SPEAKER_02]: Those got dropped off because of not being eligible, which raises the white sucks odds even more.

38:32.014 --> 38:35.439
[SPEAKER_02]: Better than a one in four shot that the white sucks have the number one pick.

38:37.422 --> 38:40.046
[SPEAKER_02]: Rock Choloski adding him to this team.

38:40.426 --> 38:43.170
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we're Choloski is we don't know.

38:43.190 --> 38:44.312
[SPEAKER_02]: It's still far away,

38:45.322 --> 38:46.508
[SPEAKER_02]: Looks like the number one pick.

38:47.795 --> 38:52.058
[SPEAKER_02]: If you added him to this and we're talking about that, that would be another guy where you'd be like, okay.

38:52.375 --> 39:00.025
[SPEAKER_02]: Now you've got Colson Montgomery, Caleb Bonamer, Rock to Laoski, and then we're starting to talk, you know at that point.

39:00.045 --> 39:01.467
[SPEAKER_01]: That's your Adley, right?

39:01.527 --> 39:07.715
[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's the Orioles rebuild coming to fruition with like the number one pick and Adley Rushman being the guide of Brandon.

39:08.055 --> 39:11.340
[SPEAKER_01]: They could have gone with Bobby with you and some other guys too, but yeah.

39:11.460 --> 39:17.067
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it affords you a lot of ability to pull guys down to the second round as well.

39:17.452 --> 39:19.975
[SPEAKER_01]: because we seem to always see it under slot number one.

39:20.656 --> 39:24.340
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe Chalowski could be the one that says, nah, I'm not going under slot guys.

39:25.041 --> 39:29.366
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, under slot sure because no one ever seems to get full even like the post.

39:29.426 --> 39:30.267
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's a lot of money.

39:30.448 --> 39:31.048
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

39:31.068 --> 39:31.249
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.

39:31.449 --> 39:40.580
[SPEAKER_02]: But much like Paul schemes is like, but I'm not taking a big discount because you know what, if I go down, I'm not going far.

39:40.760 --> 39:43.143
[SPEAKER_02]: Like usually how you do that in the next game.

39:43.163 --> 39:47.408
[SPEAKER_02]: The risk is if you don't go one,

39:47.793 --> 39:50.316
[SPEAKER_02]: Rock would be able to say, I'm not falling.

39:51.238 --> 39:55.323
[SPEAKER_02]: You can not take me, but then the next guy's going to take me and I'll get the draft photos.

39:55.523 --> 40:00.490
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, and by the way, if I'm sitting at two, I'm like, yes, we will build our draft around you.

40:01.391 --> 40:04.575
[SPEAKER_02]: We're good, you know, you'll make the money that you would have made it one.

40:04.635 --> 40:05.256
[SPEAKER_02]: We're good with that.

40:05.857 --> 40:06.898
[SPEAKER_02]: Like you're not going to be able to

40:07.283 --> 40:09.106
[SPEAKER_02]: You're not going to be able to bargain that down much.

40:09.166 --> 40:09.827
[SPEAKER_02]: I would just say that.

40:09.907 --> 40:19.442
[SPEAKER_02]: But so why sucks fans very much have a reason to pay attention this December, because that could be a potentially franchise altering bounce of the ping pong balls.

40:20.583 --> 40:22.867
[SPEAKER_02]: So, again, this is one of those fun years.

40:23.287 --> 40:26.032
[SPEAKER_02]: There are years where like it's a really good draft, there's not clear number one.

40:27.013 --> 40:30.559
[SPEAKER_02]: This year, this is a really good draft, and it does feel like there's a really clear number one.

40:30.839 --> 40:31.921
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are really fun.

40:32.401 --> 40:32.802
[SPEAKER_02]: So.

40:33.423 --> 40:38.318
[SPEAKER_02]: That's our look at the white socks and how they potentially could return to prominence.

40:39.462 --> 40:39.823
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll see.

40:40.284 --> 40:43.254
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, there's some positives here to watch for for Jeff.

40:43.514 --> 40:44.096
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm JJ.

40:44.257 --> 40:45.019
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a long everybody.