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[SPEAKER_03]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Luke Guerrero and I'll be with you on this Wednesday, November 26th, 2025.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now this is not an ordinary Wednesday, no indeed.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In my opinion, it is the best Wednesday of the year, the day before Thanksgiving.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I can already taste the food, feel the pain from tasting too much food.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And imagine what it's going to be like sitting around the table with friends, with family, with loved ones.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But just because tomorrow is a day of rest-to-day of relaxation, for I hope most, if not all of you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's tomorrow.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Today we have work to do and so are objective here today's the same as it is each and every day to leave a better and more informed investor.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We want to help you understand market dynamics.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We want to help you understand how all of this affects your portfolios and so to that end.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have, once again, a mixture of educational items, actionable material to go over.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But the most important part of this show is you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So before we get to running down those show topics, before we talk about the markets today, let's answer this caller question now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Hello, I'm Vestock.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm calling in a question on prologis.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The symbol is p-l-d.

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[SPEAKER_00]: and that's on getting in.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It would just be a good time and would be a good entry point.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for your show and I'll be listening for the answer.

02:26.280 --> 02:32.467
[SPEAKER_01]: Prologis to GERPLD is a global, religious, real estate company.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is organized as a read so it owns and operates properties for industrial use, properties for distribution.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty large company, $122 billion market cap company.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Said a bit of a rough couple of years and that 2024 is down about 20.7%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Down even 21.5% more than the overall industry and REITs were having a tough time list.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this year is a completely different story.

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[SPEAKER_01]: REITs tend to do better when either REITs are low because investors are seeking that income from REITs and they can't get it from Treasuries from Bond.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Or when the path of REITs is,

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[SPEAKER_01]: starting to shift towards rate cuts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what we saw this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's why it's up 21.2% this year, up 21.8% more than its industry revenue.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Up a lot in the past five years, 19.7% on an annualized basis.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're 3.3 billion to 8.1 billion net income up from 1.5 billion to $1 billion.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 2.6 billion.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And its valuations pretty reasonable compared to where it's been priced to funds from operation, which is a good way to value rates in companies like this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have about 20.9 times.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now recently, there's been a bit of strength because of very strong leasing and logistics demand in Q3.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They reported raising funds from operation.

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[SPEAKER_01]: by over 4.2% driven by that tight supply in those high barrier warehouse markets.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's also a pretty attractive dividend, you know, sitting in the mid-tos for most of the past five years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's in a 3.5% last year, 3.2% this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so all the dynamics that can drive REETs higher and particularly this type of company, they kind of exist here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is a large cash-generating business free cash flow $3 billion.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Since a pretty good position relative to its dividend sitting at a relatively decent valuation compared to it where it compared to where it has been historically.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And honestly, in a pretty decent spot.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're looking for a wheat, you're looking to get some of that exposure to get some yield.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is a good way to go about it.

04:49.050 --> 04:53.735
[SPEAKER_01]: That is PrologySync, Tigger P, L, D. Thanks for the call.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And we've got a lot of ground to cover in the next 45 minutes, about 45 minutes or so before we head off into the Thanksgiving weekend.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it all starts with my main focus point.

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[SPEAKER_01]: about a little known investor named Warren Buffett, and it's $382 billion cashpile.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll talk about that cash, about the concepts of what he generally thinks about of when investing in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And what it we as investors can gather from a pile that large.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Also touch on the Fed's repo tool, which has historically been used as a way to calm markets by providing short-term funding and liquidity, and why it's being tested right now, let's stress in the system.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Also AI is changing shopping.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So what is that really going to mean for you as retailers and how they are reaching a segment via not their brick-and-mortars, but online?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Should we have time at the end of the show we'll touch on trading activity, really flooding the market with frankly, riskier and riskier casino like bets?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And what role Robinhood has had in that trend?

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[SPEAKER_01]: We also have some voice bank calls ready to play, including one on bright minds, biosciences, ticker DR, UG, and another on Barric Mining Corporation, ticker B, as well as some questions that came in from the comment section of the Investog YouTube channel, and of course, hopefully some live calls throughout the show.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Never headed into break.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is our first break.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is a short break.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I just want to mention as well, the upcoming wealth webinar on November 9th, but before that happens, I recommend that you look at our new comprehensive 2025 Q4 economic and market alicreport.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's a free read.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's posted now at invest.com.

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[SPEAKER_01]: My phone lens is open waiting for you at 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_04]: The prosperous future you envision for yourself and your family will not happen without strategic planning and definitive action.

06:59.822 --> 07:03.048
[SPEAKER_01]: It's got a bright-end San Mateo looking at Roku.

07:03.369 --> 07:07.878
[SPEAKER_04]: And I wanted you to take on the technical picture for the unprepared investor.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Market volatility around the world demonstrates risk.

07:12.166 --> 07:21.285
[SPEAKER_04]: But opportunities wait for no one, and now maybe the best time in years to invest wisely, to invest strategically.

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[SPEAKER_04]: What I would do is keep saving and look for other opportunities.

07:25.594 --> 07:32.689
[SPEAKER_04]: But how can you decide what sectors to avoid, which stocks to buy, and what might be the best price point?

07:32.737 --> 07:37.046
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm new to investing in my friend Wesley recommend your podcast a year ago.

07:37.507 --> 07:45.204
[SPEAKER_04]: The next decisive step on your path to financial freedom begins with a Spotify search for Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Listen live or download the free podcast.

07:52.666 --> 07:58.615
[SPEAKER_05]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

07:59.056 --> 08:04.965
[SPEAKER_05]: Now the torch has been passed and a new generation of hosts is on the job.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

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[SPEAKER_05]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call, in Vestock.

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[SPEAKER_05]: 888-99, chart.

08:20.223 --> 08:21.605
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll talk a little bit about the market.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Today, US stocks closing a bit higher and what could best be described as, I don't know, pretty quiet trading session, which tends to happen as you head into a long weekend such as what we see this week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Nevertheless, that was up 67 basis points on the day, S&P 500 up 69 NASDAQ up 82 Russell 2000 up 82 as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: After today, the S&B is now rose for four straight sessions on pace for a weekly gain of more than 3%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Big Tech mostly higher in video recouping some of yesterday's slide on the news that Google might be a hot, hot, hotter than expected competitor, high beta, momentum names, most short names, retail favorites among the best performers on the day as well as investment banks,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Frankly, I mean, looking at it here, not a lot of groups were in the red, really, all whatsoever.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll call it relative under performers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Then included software, MedTech, Pharma, Regional Banks, and Media.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Treasuries.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Bit mixed.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You did see some curve flattening across the board.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Dollar index down 10 basis points on the day, and gold finished up 60 while crude oil ended up 1.2%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the big story.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would say the big story was momentum out performance.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You had a recent sell off, you had a big reversal of some of this week's price action from your AI losers of the week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But the AI story remains complicated.

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[SPEAKER_01]: trading remains pretty mixed pretty choppy within those AI linked.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Nate stocks also continuing its recent bounce that has been driven in part by rising December rate cut expectations, following some of the dovish fed speak that we saw not just today, but previously in the week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Outside of the fed and outside of AI, there are a couple other bullish pieces obviously seasonalities playing into it here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You have a big cleaner positioning than you've had heading into the final weeks of the year, a favorable fiscal impulse, particularly in the first half of next year and pretty broad earnings growth across the board.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Look at all the macro data initial claims printed at 216,000 for the week ending the 22nd of November.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's better than the consensus, which was 230.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And better than the prior weeks upperly revised number of 222.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Continuing claims.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Came in at 1.96 million a bit below the consensus of 1.964, but at the same time higher than the downwardly revised 1.953 of last week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Other important data, September durable goods order, headline up 50 basis points, month of a month, core capital goods up 90 basis points, month, over month, PMI printed at 36.3 well below the 42.5 consensus and the news fed beige book has been observing economic activity, little changed in most districts, but they are noting prices are starting to rise moderately in labor demand, a bit weaker.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the market will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There will be a market half day on Friday for equities, though there is no data set to be released for the rest of the week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the federal will be going into its quiet period this weekend ahead of the December 10th FOMC decision.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The probability of a December rate cut has now pushed above 80%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's keeping things moving and play another listener question

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[SPEAKER_08]: Hello, my name is Carol from Oakland.

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[SPEAKER_08]: I've been looking at a ticker DRUG drug Bright Minds biosciences is just a good time to buy.

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[SPEAKER_08]: I've been watching it and waiting for it to pull back, but it just keeps going up.

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[SPEAKER_08]: If you could look at the fundamentals, appreciate it very much.

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[SPEAKER_08]: I'm over your program.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's take a look at this right here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: When a name has a ticker like drug, sometimes this thinks I'm searching for the drug industry, but we got it here, it is bright minds, bio-sciences, it is a biotech company and they focus on developing novel therapies, mainly receptor related therapies, targeting epilepsy, targeting pain, think about neurological issues, psychiatric conditions, that is what this company does.

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[SPEAKER_01]: market cap pretty small so this is a pretty small company right market about seven hundred and twenty six million dollars like revenue growth is nothing it is a Canadian company they don't make money they don't generate revenue they are in the money losing stage and the IPO back in the beginning of twenty twenty one a lot of people at home a lot of people thrown money to the market lot of capital out there trying to find a place to go to

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[SPEAKER_01]: until about the end of 2024 and the price shot back up to pretty much where it was when it IPOed and now it's kind of been flat.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, you're to date, because of the timing, this is up 77.87% of 62.9, 62% over the past 52 weeks, so certainly better than flat.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I'm not sure why, actually I can see it right here, that a pipeline momentum clinical stage progress with any type of name that is a early developing treatment biotech name, when you get the progress from successful clinical trials, maybe not to the point where you can put it in market, but you know, they're at the point where, okay, these high risk, high reward,

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[SPEAKER_01]: things in the pipeline are starting to show some signs of life.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And that's great.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly, if you had held onto this name and you decided at the middle of 2024 that you liked it, you'd be up pretty big right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty crazily big right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But, now you're to point where you have the big news.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You have the massive, massive pop from 164 to 91 Canadian dollars.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so it started to kind of just ease off here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And until you have additional news about these drugs, until you have the plan to bring them to market, anything can happen.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is a high-high risk name.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Typically, we advise and we are clients, and we like to stress to our listeners.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're really risky investing in names that not only don't make money, but are pre-revenant.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, for DRUG Bright-Mind's biosciences, I'm going to have to pass.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Move it into Bright Crystal to come.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Maine, focus point, more answers to your questions, and hopefully some live calls.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, give me a call now at 888-99 chart.

15:48.592 --> 15:52.917
[SPEAKER_05]: Get ready for an all-new Invest Talk, Wealth webinar.

15:53.457 --> 16:00.525
[SPEAKER_05]: Year-end tax tool kit RMD planning tax laws harvesting and deferral strategies.

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[SPEAKER_05]: It's all happening online and free of charge.

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[SPEAKER_05]: The new Wealth webinar Tuesday, December 9th from 11am to 12 noon Pacific Time.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Pre-register now at InvestTalk.com.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Warren Buffett, he's got a huge massive gargantuan gigantic pile of cash, and it's been growing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's about $381.7 billion dollars now, which raises some eyebrows, and certainly raises some questions about what kind of move requires that kind of dry powder.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, it is now the largest corporate cash position in American history, bigger than the GDP of several developed nations, which gives Berkshire an unmatched level of, let's say, optionality, depending on how they want to use it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The whole thing is much cash is pretty unusual, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And an economy where capital typically seeks returns,

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it's signal something that is well deliberate and possibly strategic, rather than accidentally building up $380 billion.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Above it is long said, he refuses to buy anything that doesn't meet his standards for value, which means this pile reflects years of saying no far more than any single bold decision.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And that discipline also tells us something about how Berkshire views the pricing environment and equities

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[SPEAKER_01]: and, frankly, in private markets right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It hints that opportunities just to have not been very attractive, firmly not attractive enough for Buffett to deploy this pile of cash at scale without compromising long-term returns expectations.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Berkshire has also been benefiting from higher yields as we all have on short-term treasuries.

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[SPEAKER_01]: means, and that means that letting cash sit is no longer as financially painful from an opportunity cost perspective, as it was in the mid-2010s when we lived in a zero-rate world.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Earning meaningful interest while waiting kind of amplifies the power of patience, a strategy that Buffett has historically used before making major moves.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, at the same time, a pile

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[SPEAKER_01]: which suggests that Berkshire is preparing for a moment when prices are finally aligned with from their perspective intrinsic value.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And investors are now watching whether that moment will come from market volatility, from distressed opportunities, or from a shift in interest rate expectations.

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[SPEAKER_01]: None of it is known for stepping in when others are fearful, recall the amount of money he invested in Bank of America during the 2008 financial crisis.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So periods of stress often become entry points for Berkshire's largest deals.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now that record cash position, therefore, it kind of signals not caution alone, but readiness for a transformative acquisition or a series of large investments.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It also puts Berkshire in a rare category.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A buyer capable of effectively writing checks large enough to stabilize an entire industry if it needed to.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, because of this, understandably market participants have begun thinking about whether sectors under pressure like regional banks, like real estate, like cyclical industries could become targets.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Others think Berkshire may wait for a broad market pullback rather than focusing on any single struggling sector.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Both it has also been historically favoring companies with durable cash flows, strong brands, and conservative balance sheets which narrows the field of potential candidates.

19:45.044 --> 19:57.419
[SPEAKER_01]: Given bircher size, small and midi-cap opportunities are effectively off the table, which concentrates attention on some of these mega-cap names that could absorb billions and billions of dollars.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But Buffett is also repeatedly more than investors, not to expect huge, frequent blockbuster acquisitions because prices just might not be compelling.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now that tension between an enormous gigantic, whatever word you want to use pile of cash and limited qualifying opportunities is exactly what makes today set up so fascinating.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Berkshire's patients has often preceded major market turning points which adds way to the question of what signal the firm might be sending indirectly.

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[SPEAKER_01]: investors recognize that Buffett's decision tends to be long-term unemotional, so the record cash level may reflect structural overvaluation in today's market.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it may also reflect uncertainty around inflation trajectories, future consumer demand, global growth patterns, which makes near-term commitments less attractive.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And with geopolitical risks elevated, holding liquidity gives Berkshire a unique ability to respond rapidly to any unforeseen events.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, this flexibility is one of Berkshire's competitive advantages and a reason many shareholders trust the strategy despite short-term under deployment.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The cash pile could also lead to increased share repurchases.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If Buffet concludes, Berkshire itself is the best opportunity available.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Buybacks have been a consistent tool for Berkshire when it stock trades below intrinsic value, and the current cash level strengthens that option.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Investors wondering what happens next are really asking when Buffet will see the kind of asymmetric opportunity that meets his standards.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Whether it's a major acquisition, a wave of buybacks, or a market dislocation that prompts rapid deployment.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Virtures kind of positioned for that action.

21:45.008 --> 21:53.080
[SPEAKER_01]: Now for now the message is patience, discipline, readiness, and a combination that has defined Buffett's most successful moves for decades.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So as we head into 2026, when the Oracle of Omaha will no longer be at the helm, certainly seeing what Berkshire decides to do through its new leadership team, how it decides to deploy this cash if and when it decides to do that, will be something we will all be waiting and watching for.

22:12.633 --> 22:16.663
[SPEAKER_01]: Tomorrow, thanksgivingday and also on Friday, we will run compilation shows.

22:17.305 --> 22:20.452
[SPEAKER_01]: So we call you best of color questions and podcasts.

22:20.473 --> 22:23.801
[SPEAKER_01]: So look for that to be posted on vestalk.com as well as other platforms.

22:24.442 --> 22:26.307
[SPEAKER_01]: Remember, the invest talk downloads are free.

22:26.808 --> 22:29.916
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, my phone lines are open at 88899 chart.

22:40.409 --> 22:47.377
[SPEAKER_05]: 24-7 Rainer Shine, there's always value in the Invest Talk podcast.

22:47.397 --> 22:49.539
[SPEAKER_05]: 888-99, chart.

22:50.080 --> 22:50.861
[SPEAKER_10]: Happy Thanksgiving.

22:50.881 --> 22:51.442
[SPEAKER_10]: You're going to talk.

22:51.582 --> 22:51.882
[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you.

22:51.902 --> 22:53.023
[SPEAKER_10]: It was always for the great shows.

22:53.043 --> 22:53.944
[SPEAKER_10]: Steve from St. Paul.

22:54.625 --> 22:58.069
[SPEAKER_10]: I am trying to increase my financial sector.

22:58.249 --> 22:58.650
[SPEAKER_10]: Holdings.

22:59.050 --> 23:01.653
[SPEAKER_10]: I've only got a few holdings all about 1%.

23:02.094 --> 23:08.661
[SPEAKER_10]: The 4% total kind of mix of sizes and domestic and international.

23:09.012 --> 23:12.215
[SPEAKER_10]: One of my domestic names is HTML.

23:12.416 --> 23:13.537
[SPEAKER_10]: It's a very small company.

23:14.158 --> 23:15.419
[SPEAKER_10]: The fundamentals look good.

23:16.080 --> 23:18.342
[SPEAKER_10]: But the technicals are terrible.

23:18.442 --> 23:20.404
[SPEAKER_10]: And there is, I think, a start to recover.

23:20.564 --> 23:21.766
[SPEAKER_10]: It starts declining again.

23:22.106 --> 23:26.110
[SPEAKER_10]: So I'm wondering if I should give up on this one and try other options.

23:26.491 --> 23:35.761
[SPEAKER_10]: Also, if I could slip in, the second part to this question, what do you think of Tokyo Marine TKONY as a insurance name?

23:36.121 --> 23:38.023
[SPEAKER_10]: I don't have any exposure to Japan.

23:38.645 --> 23:39.266
[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you so much.

23:39.927 --> 23:40.428
[SPEAKER_01]: Great question.

23:40.848 --> 23:46.877
[SPEAKER_01]: And so HGBL, let's start with that one, is heritage global ink.

23:47.498 --> 23:55.890
[SPEAKER_01]: The color did mention it is a very small company and he, he wasn't lying, $47 million market cap.

23:55.910 --> 24:08.348
[SPEAKER_01]: What they do is it is a asset services company, they acquire value, liquidate, resell, and offer secured lending for financial and industrial

24:08.328 --> 24:08.949
[SPEAKER_01]: assets.

24:08.989 --> 24:15.735
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, they've had a bit of elevated liquidation and auction demand, which tends to happen when there's some sort of economic stress.

24:16.676 --> 24:26.586
[SPEAKER_01]: But, I mean, funding costs for businesses that are this small can be incredibly incredibly stressful.

24:27.607 --> 24:35.955
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's one of the reasons why it's

24:36.053 --> 24:45.293
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, not lying does not look great, so it is a small cap, but it is deeply, deeply, cyclical, high volatility, high risk.

24:45.313 --> 24:51.987
[SPEAKER_01]: It could deliver out-size returns of liquidation mandates and asset resale cycles pick up favorably.

24:52.405 --> 24:55.331
[SPEAKER_01]: The market's signaling to you that that's not necessarily the case right now.

24:55.351 --> 25:02.846
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I would probably look to move away from these smaller names and have some of those funding issues, those cost issues, and more into an established name.

25:02.886 --> 25:07.495
[SPEAKER_01]: Now the second one, which is TKOMY.

25:08.892 --> 25:11.917
[SPEAKER_01]: pull that up here, lost my mouse and happens from time to time.

25:12.598 --> 25:17.246
[SPEAKER_01]: TKOM is Tokyo, Marine, holdings it is an ADR.

25:17.767 --> 25:26.501
[SPEAKER_01]: It is giving you exposure to the Japanese market, but also US market as well, 49% of its business is Japan, 33% is the United States.

25:27.002 --> 25:32.210
[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly a bigger company, about $66 billion, right?

25:32.571 --> 25:34.314
[SPEAKER_01]: Far, far bigger.

25:34.334 --> 25:35.676
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry, $66.

25:35.656 --> 25:36.578
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, $66 billion.

25:36.598 --> 25:40.606
[SPEAKER_01]: So far bigger company, a lot more net interest income, right?

25:40.626 --> 25:52.028
[SPEAKER_01]: 6.3 billion in net interest income, which has been growing pretty decently over the past couple of years with the exception of this year, it is falling a little bit.

25:52.801 --> 26:03.395
[SPEAKER_01]: For real, devaluation perspective, it sits about where it has been over the past five years in terms of averages, but they have some pretty strong underwriting growth in the most recent quarter.

26:03.816 --> 26:05.838
[SPEAKER_01]: So Q2 results were pretty solid.

26:06.259 --> 26:09.463
[SPEAKER_01]: Capital returns have been pretty decent as well.

26:09.503 --> 26:15.271
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you have a dividend that's been floating anywhere from the low two's to the high threes over the past five, six years.

26:16.012 --> 26:19.737
[SPEAKER_01]: So if I had to choose between the two of these,

26:19.717 --> 26:25.282
[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly I think that this would be more beneficial here.

26:25.762 --> 26:38.333
[SPEAKER_01]: It represents a more relatively stable, didn't dividend inclined larger insurance conglomerate that gives you some of that international exposure to down this year, but it is not performing its industry by a little bit.

26:38.373 --> 26:42.456
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you choose in between these two, certainly TKO and why would be my vote.

26:42.936 --> 26:43.777
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

26:44.478 --> 26:49.622
[SPEAKER_09]: It's keeping things rolling and adding another question now.

26:49.923 --> 26:54.199
[SPEAKER_09]: I would like to ask you about the stock MKL Marko Co.

26:54.681 --> 26:58.536
[SPEAKER_09]: I was interested in the stock, would like to hear your opinion.

26:58.998 --> 27:00.102
[SPEAKER_09]: Thank you very much.

27:01.415 --> 27:04.719
[SPEAKER_01]: MKL is the ticker.

27:04.739 --> 27:06.841
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's pull this up right here.

27:07.302 --> 27:12.168
[SPEAKER_01]: And it is a market, sorry, Mark L, Markl group, Inc.

27:12.868 --> 27:17.174
[SPEAKER_01]: It is headquartered in the state of Virginia.

27:17.214 --> 27:24.182
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's a financial holding company that does underwriting for specialty insurance products in some pretty niche markets.

27:24.202 --> 27:28.587
[SPEAKER_01]: So they got reinsurance, which is they have

27:28.567 --> 27:36.795
[SPEAKER_01]: market ventures, which relates to controlling interest in diverse portfolios of businesses, kind of very niche area of the insurance space.

27:37.977 --> 27:46.465
[SPEAKER_01]: About 45% of their business comes from that insurance segment, 31% from market ventures, 17% from invest in.

27:46.926 --> 27:55.975
[SPEAKER_01]: Now here today, it's about 20.63% up, 17.27% over the past 52 weeks.

27:57.035 --> 27:58.177
[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty large company, right?

27:58.197 --> 28:08.816
[SPEAKER_01]: 26 billion dollar market cap company, decent growth in net earned interest, decent growth in net income, decent growth in earnings per share.

28:08.836 --> 28:11.401
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's trading in a pretty reasonable valuation here.

28:11.641 --> 28:16.109
[SPEAKER_01]: About 1.5 times is where it's trading right now.

28:16.129 --> 28:19.515
[SPEAKER_01]: About where it's been over the past couple years.

28:20.677 --> 28:30.577
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, one thing I want to take a look at here is, well, has there been any interesting news that has driven this price action over the past 52 weeks.

28:30.637 --> 28:35.066
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, you're seeing relative strength peak back up from a pretty rough 2022.

28:35.086 --> 28:39.816
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't really see anything that's giving, you know.

28:40.218 --> 28:43.181
[SPEAKER_01]: outside of the normal course of action, right?

28:43.201 --> 28:44.823
[SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing strong underwriting results.

28:44.843 --> 28:54.675
[SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing positive results from their investment portfolio as interest rates are of have remained relatively high because they can't take on as much risk as an insurance company as you or I could.

28:54.975 --> 28:56.597
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, could that come down a bit, right?

28:56.737 --> 28:59.400
[SPEAKER_01]: As rates have been falling, it certainly could.

28:59.540 --> 29:06.368
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you want to more conservatively managed investment portfolio, I think that this is a pretty reasonable way to go about it.

29:06.388 --> 29:09.752
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a Markill group, ticker, M, K, L.

29:10.458 --> 29:13.701
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to wilt from San Diego as a question about B.M.Y.

29:14.222 --> 29:15.003
[SPEAKER_09]: That's correct.

29:15.043 --> 29:20.649
[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, I've been looking at it for a while and I'm wondering it's now the good time to pick it up.

29:21.089 --> 29:23.332
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure, let's take a look at a Ticker B.M.Y.

29:23.352 --> 29:25.674
[SPEAKER_01]: which is a Bristol Meyer squib.

29:25.694 --> 29:37.427
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a global biofarmacompany so they develop and markets on ecological, immunological and cardiovascular-related medicines and therapies.

29:37.407 --> 29:52.429
[SPEAKER_01]: You're today to sound 12.92% down 16.16% over the past 50 to weeks, pretty big company, 101 billion dollar market cap company, and it's seen its revenue grow pretty substantially from 2019.

29:52.409 --> 29:58.360
[SPEAKER_01]: But it hit a peak in 2021, and it's kind of falling, oh, I'm sorry, 2024, and it's falling back down a little bit.

29:58.380 --> 30:05.492
[SPEAKER_01]: 40 billion to 47 billion net income lost money and 2024 is projected to make money this year.

30:05.532 --> 30:07.776
[SPEAKER_01]: It's some pretty substantially improved margins.

30:08.378 --> 30:14.248
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you pull that back, can you ignore interest taxes depreciation on its assets?

30:14.228 --> 30:28.803
[SPEAKER_01]: It's even a margin has actually been falling pretty steadily since 2021, so that's certainly something we don't want to see and could be the reason why it's trading at a price to earnings of about 8.1, which is below where it's been over the past five years on average, right?

30:28.823 --> 30:30.988
[SPEAKER_01]: It's traded about 8.6.

30:30.968 --> 30:52.355
[SPEAKER_01]: Now they have had some pretty strong momentum from their commercial segment recently in the past three months, right about 4.32% is how it's performed, and there's some pipeline optimism as well, but from a momentum perspective, from a technical perspective, and really what I'm seeing within their margins and margin compression, I'm not really signaling that now is a big turnaround time.

30:52.375 --> 30:53.777
[SPEAKER_01]: You're not seeing high volume.

30:54.077 --> 30:57.381
[SPEAKER_01]: You're not seeing any short-term catalysts that

30:58.559 --> 30:59.360
[SPEAKER_01]: And that being said, right?

30:59.380 --> 31:02.786
[SPEAKER_01]: You also have a hold rating as a consensus rating from analysts.

31:02.806 --> 31:04.589
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would keep it on my watch list for now.

31:04.609 --> 31:07.674
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think now is exactly the time you want to get in here.

31:08.916 --> 31:11.020
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully things turn around soon.

31:11.100 --> 31:15.026
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a Bristol Myers-Squip company, ticker B. M. Y.

31:15.668 --> 31:21.377
[SPEAKER_01]: This invest talk now with more than 62 million downloads are were continues in 30 seconds, so hang on.

31:22.285 --> 31:32.784
[SPEAKER_05]: The Thanksgiving holiday is here and while you're enjoying family friends and great food, you might want to think about attending the new free, wealth webinar.

31:33.124 --> 31:40.918
[SPEAKER_05]: The title is, Year and Tax Toolkit, R&D Planning, Tax Laws Harvesting and Deferral Strategies.

31:40.898 --> 31:46.655
[SPEAKER_05]: And it's happening online Tuesday, December 9th from 11 a.m. to 12 noon.

31:47.137 --> 31:49.845
[SPEAKER_05]: That's right, and all new, wealth webinar.

31:50.206 --> 31:53.676
[SPEAKER_05]: Pre-register now at investalk.com.

31:57.807 --> 32:03.798
[SPEAKER_01]: The Federal Reserve is trying to convince banks to use a key lending tool.

32:04.118 --> 32:11.451
[SPEAKER_01]: It's called the Standing Repo Facility, but upkeep has been pretty slow, and frankly a lot slower than policy makers have hoped.

32:12.172 --> 32:16.901
[SPEAKER_01]: Banks have tapped this facility more in the past month, but many remain hesitant, worried.

32:17.542 --> 32:19.866
[SPEAKER_01]: That, okay, it's a bit of a stigma.

32:20.352 --> 32:37.230
[SPEAKER_01]: And how borrowing from the Fed might be perceived by the overall market, you actually had this issue back in 2008, one of the reasons why when they were being out companies, they made every bank take money because they didn't want to signal to the market, which ones were strong, which ones were weak.

32:37.210 --> 32:43.917
[SPEAKER_01]: Now the SRF that lending facility is designed to let banks quickly convert treasuries into overnight cash.

32:43.937 --> 32:51.485
[SPEAKER_01]: It gives me cheaper alternative when a repo rates spike and helps the Fed keep short-term markets stable.

32:51.925 --> 32:58.992
[SPEAKER_01]: Now to smoke that safety valve, repo rates jumped several times and really in fall alone.

32:59.012 --> 33:06.660
[SPEAKER_01]: And the facility is about to be tested again as a large treasury

33:06.995 --> 33:24.818
[SPEAKER_01]: The fedposits balance sheet run off on December of last year, which should, or rather, it is set to pause, it's run off on December, which should ease some of the strain, but analysts warn that volatility could remain elevated if banks stay reluctant to use this facility.

33:24.798 --> 33:37.956
[SPEAKER_01]: Former New York Fed officials have said recent usage is encouraging, but it's, it's tool, it's main tool still shows limitations, especially when stressed emerges in the Treasury back funding system.

33:37.976 --> 33:49.371
[SPEAKER_01]: Investors and central bankers watch this repo market pretty closely, because it anchors financing across Wall Street and ultimately shapes borrowing costs for households and businesses.

33:49.925 --> 33:56.702
[SPEAKER_01]: When these rates break, when they break sharply, above the Fed's target range, monetary policy self can become less effective.

33:57.043 --> 34:01.133
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's a signal that the bank is specially now, the central bank really wants to avoid.

34:01.552 --> 34:13.208
[SPEAKER_01]: Yet, at a private meeting this month, some banks told New York Fed President John Williams, they fear the SRF carries the same stigma as the discount window since borrowing data becomes public after two years.

34:13.889 --> 34:24.184
[SPEAKER_01]: Others have said that tapping the SRF ties up balance sheet resources they would much rather use to serve clients, creating an internal tradeoff that reduces willingness to rely on the tool.

34:24.164 --> 34:32.066
[SPEAKER_01]: And some Fed governors have thought of different ideas, flooded raising the FRF SRF interest rate to discourage routine barley.

34:32.567 --> 34:40.148
[SPEAKER_01]: A suggestion that some people believe could worse in the stigma problem, and frankly does not help address the issue that is core.

34:40.904 --> 34:52.622
[SPEAKER_01]: Policy makers are discussing further tweaks, including adjustments to how and when the bank can lock in borrowing as they try to find to the plumbing of the financial system before volatility picks up again at year end.

34:53.503 --> 35:05.401
[SPEAKER_01]: Understanding these types of dynamics, understanding what structurally underlines markets is as critical to becoming a more educated investor as paying attention to the day's news.

35:06.422 --> 35:08.886
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's keep things moving and play another

35:09.457 --> 35:15.706
[SPEAKER_06]: I just didn't look long time listed your show for many, many years here from the Midwest.

35:16.447 --> 35:27.422
[SPEAKER_06]: I was listening the other day and you spoke to a caller about midcaps and I have one here, I was wondering what your thoughts were on this one, V-O-E.

35:28.723 --> 35:29.865
[SPEAKER_06]: I've done a little research.

35:30.366 --> 35:35.333
[SPEAKER_06]: That looks to be a pretty good midcap value fund also.

35:35.693 --> 35:37.135
[SPEAKER_06]: Would you guys agree with that?

35:37.587 --> 35:50.343
[SPEAKER_06]: And also I have some extra money because I'm getting rid of some losses here on the year to do some, I guess, washing or whatever you're not washing, but just tax loss.

35:51.304 --> 36:01.136
[SPEAKER_06]: And I'm thinking of putting some money back in Netflix because it has such a monopoly and since they've done the split, the price is pretty down right now.

36:01.717 --> 36:06.042
[SPEAKER_06]: And I think it could maybe grow up to 500 or a thousand again someday.

36:06.578 --> 36:09.197
[SPEAKER_06]: Would you feel that's a smart idea also?

36:09.548 --> 36:10.089
[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you.

36:10.109 --> 36:12.711
[SPEAKER_06]: I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this on the show.

36:13.292 --> 36:14.093
[SPEAKER_06]: Happy Holidays.

36:14.754 --> 36:19.619
[SPEAKER_01]: Take the first question first and hopefully we have time to answer the second one as well.

36:19.839 --> 36:26.186
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, VOE is the Vanguard midcap value ETF.

36:26.266 --> 36:27.348
[SPEAKER_01]: It focuses on mid caps.

36:27.388 --> 36:27.768
[SPEAKER_01]: And guess what?

36:28.068 --> 36:29.270
[SPEAKER_01]: Focus is on value name.

36:29.310 --> 36:30.591
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's passively managed.

36:30.952 --> 36:32.493
[SPEAKER_01]: Try to provide this exposure.

36:32.513 --> 36:38.560
[SPEAKER_01]: It looks like it's investible universe.

36:38.540 --> 36:39.422
[SPEAKER_01]: Index.

36:39.482 --> 36:43.210
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Judging Value can mean different things to different people.

36:43.230 --> 36:44.753
[SPEAKER_01]: So how does this fun to do?

36:44.773 --> 36:46.096
[SPEAKER_01]: It looks a price to book.

36:46.116 --> 36:47.379
[SPEAKER_01]: Looks at four earnings to price.

36:47.439 --> 36:54.253
[SPEAKER_01]: It looks at historical earnings to price, dividend to price ratios, and various metrics.

36:54.453 --> 37:07.956
[SPEAKER_01]: You're today, it's performed pretty well, relative to its benchmark index, the MSCIUSA midcap value of about 10.03% on nav basis of about 10% price.

37:08.677 --> 37:12.343
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the hallmark of a Vanguard fund,

37:12.323 --> 37:25.198
[SPEAKER_01]: is well it tends to be passive, which this is, also tends to be cheap 7 basis points as a expense ratio, which is why it's attracted $19 billion in funding to attack this asset class.

37:25.859 --> 37:27.521
[SPEAKER_01]: So the next question is how good of a job is it doing?

37:28.041 --> 37:33.308
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, its dividend yield is 2.24% higher than its segment benchmark.

37:33.328 --> 37:37.993
[SPEAKER_01]: Its price to book is lower, its price to cash flow, about the same.

37:38.395 --> 37:46.363
[SPEAKER_01]: Price earnings, a little bit lower, price to sales, a little bit lower, with these metrics being lower, you know that it's tilting towards the value side of the market.

37:47.124 --> 37:53.990
[SPEAKER_01]: But it also is tilting towards some of those larger names, so it may be less representative of mid-caps than you might think, right?

37:54.010 --> 38:05.702
[SPEAKER_01]: The weighted average market cap here is $40 billion, versus $27 billion for the benchmark, and they're in lies that you can't just look at the performance you have to understand are you actually getting what you are paying for.

38:05.682 --> 38:08.467
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're paying for a mid-cap fund, you're not really getting that here.

38:08.487 --> 38:14.116
[SPEAKER_01]: 99.58% of this portfolio is actually large caps.

38:14.136 --> 38:15.498
[SPEAKER_01]: And then it is understandable.

38:16.200 --> 38:16.520
[SPEAKER_01]: Why?

38:16.540 --> 38:19.325
[SPEAKER_01]: It is outperforming a mid-cap benchmark.

38:21.248 --> 38:22.129
[SPEAKER_01]: Take a look at these names.

38:22.149 --> 38:25.475
[SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing names like Newmont Corporation, Corning General Motors.

38:26.457 --> 38:28.500
[SPEAKER_01]: This is some of the large names in this portfolio.

38:29.375 --> 38:37.364
[SPEAKER_01]: But I would say if you're looking for a value fund, this is a pretty decent way to go about getting that exposure, but it does tilt towards the larger side.

38:37.404 --> 38:40.768
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're looking for purely mid caps, I want to look a little bit elsewhere.

38:41.029 --> 38:42.811
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to the call.

38:42.831 --> 38:47.296
[SPEAKER_01]: This is Investock, I'm Luke Guerrero, and we have one goal here to help you achieve your financial freedom.

38:47.957 --> 38:53.543
[SPEAKER_01]: Our work continues after our final break, so get your questions in now at 888-99-Chair.

39:01.420 --> 39:17.691
[SPEAKER_05]: Twenty twenty five rolls on and you might have some fresh questions for Justin or Luke call in Vestock eight eight eight ninety nine chart high in Vestock this is Mark in Alaska I had a question about bearic mining

39:17.941 --> 39:26.235
[SPEAKER_07]: picker symbol B. I hold it in my Roth had a pretty good run up of overgobbled my money, but since it's in my Roth, I'm only about 31 years old.

39:26.415 --> 39:30.482
[SPEAKER_07]: I'm wondering what your thoughts were for a long term hold, say, 20 years or so.

39:30.502 --> 39:32.866
[SPEAKER_07]: One of my thoughts were really appreciate the show.

39:33.006 --> 39:33.246
[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks.

39:33.647 --> 39:34.308
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a great question.

39:34.348 --> 39:39.056
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, very gold is a leading gold mining company, so they produce.

39:39.096 --> 39:39.617
[SPEAKER_01]: They sell it.

39:39.637 --> 39:44.725
[SPEAKER_01]: They also have exposure to copper, various other metals as well.

39:45.093 --> 39:47.317
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's been doing well because gold has been doing well.

39:47.357 --> 39:54.689
[SPEAKER_01]: You're today about 158.23% up 133.13% over the past 52 weeks.

39:55.430 --> 40:02.241
[SPEAKER_01]: Revenue growing from 17.7 to 22.5 billion dollars net income.

40:02.795 --> 40:12.807
[SPEAKER_01]: going from $2.95.3 billion, margins, phenomenal, we do hold this for clients, but you don't understand this a bit of volatility here, right?

40:13.308 --> 40:26.524
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the value of this company, prices company is going to be really predicated upon the commodities it's exposed to in this case, pretty heavy exposure gold, pretty heavy exposure to copper.

40:26.504 --> 40:31.930
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, holding in your Roth, I mean, that's perfectly reasonable to hold a company like this in your Roth.

40:31.990 --> 40:36.315
[SPEAKER_01]: Look at the historical returns of something like gold.

40:36.475 --> 40:49.009
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, in this market, in this economy, in this world with rising geopolitical tensions, I think that the things, the factors that have driven gold higher will continue to drive it higher into the future.

40:49.490 --> 40:50.571
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to call.

40:50.551 --> 40:55.461
[SPEAKER_01]: for we had often talk a little bit about big retailers and how they're spending pretty heavily in this holiday season.

40:55.842 --> 41:03.357
[SPEAKER_01]: But the target isn't just shoppers anymore, it is AI agents that increasingly influence what people buy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: With more than $350 billion in US online sales expected, companies know most purchases start with the search.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And more and more people are leaving Google behind and using AI as a search tool chatGBT Gemini can describe products, compare prices, and even enable purchases directly inside the chatbot, making them a new kind of digital storefront and assistant.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the shift has triggered an explosion of content creation with brands racing from a handful of monthly blog posts to hundreds Designed specifically to surface in AI recommendations.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This new game is generative engine optimization where firms like

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[SPEAKER_01]: Everton AI charged thousands per month to make brands more visible to AI models instead of traditional search algorithms, and because companies can't directly advertise, inside most major AI tools, they're trying different methods, posting more on Reddit, building AI only websites stacking product reviews, wherever straperes can find them.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right now the actual traffic coming from AI platforms?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Less than one percent, for giants like Amazon and Walmart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But, retailer sales visits, they come with more higher intent to buy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Some brands are already crafting influencer campaigns, specifically designed to be read by AI Scraper's hoping, hoping.

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[SPEAKER_01]: that transcripts and awards and reviews will give their products an edge in chatbot suggestions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Others are buying ads based on questions consumers ask AI assistance like Amazon's Alexa, effectively advertising to the machines that guide shoppers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Google's rolling out new AI shopping tools that track prices, surface product details and way store quality features that only work if realistic, you know, realistically fed clean data into the system comes from these retailers directly.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Chaggy Bathees also stepping deeper into commerce with new features, like comparing products.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Finding look-alike items, blurring the lines between chatbot and shopping, assistant.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All of this is to say, will this be successful as a strategy?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Who knows?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Will the models be able to decipher the intent of some of this content in the future?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Who knows?

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[SPEAKER_01]: but regardless, these things are not just proliferating throughout retail.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is a clear sign that although the productivity gains haven't necessarily manifested themselves, although the profits of the hyperscalers haven't necessarily manifested, these tools are fundamentally changing the way companies are getting their products to consumers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Lou Guerrero and this completes another Investock program.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Justin and I thank you for listening and encourage you to tell your friends and family members about our free podcast downloads, which you can get at iTunes and Spotify.

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[SPEAKER_01]: While you're over there, please be sure to leave us a rate and review.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If there's any show, maybe think about your own financial picture, your investments, your taxes, your retirements.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And whether it's all really working together, Justin and I would love to speak with you, a KBB financial we offer no cost portfolio reviews to help bring a little bit of clarity and confidence.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Just head over to invest.com and click the portfolio review button.

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[SPEAKER_01]: One last quick reminder, our newest invest talk, well-veller set for a Tuesday, December 9th, and we're going to be talking all about ways that you can lower your tax bill.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's just under two weeks away, happening online and it's free, but you got a pre-register in

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[SPEAKER_01]: Independent thinking?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Share its success.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Enjoy your holiday.

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