Hello everyone
and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always
Stan McCune
Realtor of the year here in Greater Greenville
area of South Carolina
and you can find all of my contact information
in the show notes
if you need to reach out to me for any of
your real estate needs just a reminder as always
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to make sure that you don't miss more of this content
we've got some great episodes here
to close out the year really excited about that
and I'm really excited about this next year as well
it's gonna be another year of podcasting right
my sixth year of doing this podcast is what
2026 is gonna be
I started this podcast right before the pandemic
in 2020 and
and we've been going strong every single week
and so many of you guys listen every single week
and I really appreciate each and every one of you
and I really hope this
this Christmas season
this holiday season is a great one for everyone
next episode I intend to for next week
I intend to wear a nice ugly sweater if I remember
so I'll make sure to show that off to you guys
watching on YouTube and by the way
if you don't watch on YouTube
these next few episodes are good ones to
to watch on YouTube in my opinion
if for no other reason than to see my ugly sweater
next week but this
this week we'll be talking about the market stats
and then we'll be reviewing
I believe next week the
the bold predictions that I made for 2025
how well did I do on those
and then I'll be making the week after
the final episode of the year
my bold predictions for 2026
and what I think is gonna be happening
in this upcoming year
so lots of good content for you guys
and I hope you guys tune in
so let's jump right into the market stats
for the past month
so we are recording this in December
December the 16th so
we just now got the market stats
for the month of November
I was kind of sweating this one out because
the entire end of
a end of year
strategy for me depended on me having
access to this data this week
well
normally I would have recorded this podcast yesterday
which was Monday
I didn't have this data yesterday until late last night
it finally came in late last night way too late
for me to
to record a podcast I
I don't like to record at night
especially when it's dark so early right
we're quickly approaching the winter solstice
which is the shortest day of the year and so
so yeah anyway
the
well I guess it's not the shortest day of the year
it's the least amount of daylight
I don't know I don't remember
I need to go back and I need to to brush off my dad
weatherman
part of me which by the way I have a weather station
this is a complete aside here
I have a weather station at my house
it's something I'm very proud of it measures the wind
the temperature the rain
all of that and the other night
when we had that cold front come in
I looked back and it got down to 16.5 degrees
and the windshield was
there was a decent windshield as well
because it was windy on top of that somewhat windy
and so we had a teen temp drop here in Greenville
in the month of December
that's pretty rare usually we get those
you know after the New Year if we have them at all
it doesn't normally go below 20 degrees around here
but it does every now and then
so we had a real cold one the other night thankfully
I don't know anyone whose heat went out or anything
like that so we're good to go there alright
jumping into the market stats
and we're gonna start right at the top
with new listings
new listings up 19.3% for the year
year over year
let me actually look up something real quick
okay
so we've got alright
here we go we've got the November market sets alright
sorry about that new listings up 19.3% year over year
so they're at 1,872
that's up from 1,569 which is November 2024
so 19.3% increase however
for the entire year
that's a big increase for the entire year
you know
about half the months this year have been over 20%
increase so
in comparison to some of the other months this year
that's not necessarily a a huge increase
but this has been one of the stories of this year right
the number of homes coming on the market has been
way more than in prior years
like you're looking at the chart if you're on YouTube
it's like
way above every other year that we've ever had
there's a lot of reasons for that
a lot of it is just finally people starting to realize
hey
you know the market is what the market is
we need to sell our house
we're gonna go ahead and list it
and then of course
you got all that new construction as well
coming into the MLS which
a lot of times
new construction doesn't appear in the MLS
but it has with more frequency as it's been harder for
for the builders to move their inventory
pending sales
this is one of those numbers that's always incorrect
for the most recent month
this is what I was just trying to pull up before
by the way
when I had that dead air time for a second there
so I wanted to pull up October's
October stats and so here's what we had
for October originally it was 869 that got revised
these always get revised up
these pending sales that got revised up from eight 60
nine to 1337 so nearly five hundred
nearly 500 unit increase so
that gave us a pending sale for the month of October
we got to go back then a pending sale increase of 1%
very small percent increase from
1,324 in November of 24sorry
in October of 24 to 1,337 in October of 25
so now they're projecting 757
pending sales unrevised for the month of November
so that's gonna get revised upward by roughly 500 ish
units again
this one's gonna be close
whether November is going to be up or down
in comparison to last November
because last November was 1,223
so we're gonna be really close
we're gonna either be you know
an increase by 1 to 2%
or a decrease by 1 to 2% is kind of what I'm
anticipating there but for the year
we're going to see for the entire year
an increase in pending sales
and a pretty substantial one at that
I'll add when once it's all said and done
cause right now this is being right now it's
it's showing a 3.9% 12 month average
but that's factoring in that
that the November number is way off
so we're gonna see some increases there
so a lot more listings
but also a lot more pending sales
now pending sales don't always mean closings
and you know if you look at the trend
we are still below where we should be
in terms of where things were trending
before the pandemic
pending sales should be higher than they are right now
but this is the reality of the situation where we are
now close sales
this is really more of a of a metric for
you know for what's actually happening in the market
right because close sales
these are what are actually closing
and these are way behind way behind the pre pandemic
and even post pandemic
until the mortgage rates thing happened
these are way behind the trend line
where they should be
but November's cold sales was a decrease
we've had a couple of decreases this year
we had a year on year decrease in August
now we had one in November
this is a pretty big one
a 4.8% decrease in closed sales from November of
2024 which had 1,281 closed sales
it went down to 1,220
closed sales in the month of November
and you know
I think that that's just because we had such a strong
September and October so many closings happened
September was up 21% year over year
October was up 11% year over year
and so we just had
things that normally would have closed
back in November
they just closed earlier in the month of October
and I think that we're gonna have a
a pretty strong December now
I don't know if we're gonna
have as strong of a December as we had
last year last year
like you can actually even see on the chart
this big up swing and
and the
the December up swing happens just about every year
if you if you look at these this is all the people
you know
getting in those closings before the end of the year
and I've had a few situations
where I've had clients that wanted to close
you know that made an offer on a house
or had an offer made on their house
that was set to close after
the end of the year and one of the parties was like no
we really want this to be during this calendar year
for one reason or another
and so that's what ends up happening
so we'll definitely have an increase month over month
once we get to December
I don't know that we're gonna match you know
December of 24 was a big month
it was it was a really big month
it really wasn't much different than the
than the spring months
and so
we'll probably have a a decrease in close sales
I'm guessing
year over year once the December numbers come in
later next month
days on market until sale
this is an interesting one
we had our first decrease in a very
very long time I mean
I have to go back and look at the data to see
to see how long it's been
but we had a decrease from 53 days on market until sale
so this is the average number of days
between when a property is listed
and when an offer is accepted in a given month
so it was 53 days in November of 2024
it went down to 52 days in November of 2025
so that's super interesting
this is the first time that we've had days on market
until sale go down
year over year in over a year probably
probably over two years
if I went back and really looked at it
and so this is gonna be a very interesting one to track
because
you know a lot of people have been saying oh
we're expecting this number to keep going up
but it just hasn't it's kind of hit
it's kind of stalled out in the 50s
now we did have a couple of
a couple of months in earlier in the year January
February hit the 60s but then it
it hopped right back down
seems like the
the sixty days on market so two months right
two months
most homes are
are going under contract sooner than that
and so to get this average up above that
we need to see just homes
lingering on the market longer and
and what's happening is sellers have
have gotten wiser and they've figured out
they've finally adapted and figured out OK
you know
if my home's been on the market for a couple of months
I need to get it sold I need to
maybe I just need to have more realistic expectations
in terms of you know
what my home is worth etcetera
etcetera maybe they take it off the market
make some repairs put it back on the market
but if your home is on the market
for greater than two months
it really feels like a long time
and it is because right now
the average is 52
days before a home goes under contract
median sales price
was 315,000 for the month of November
and you know you look at the numbers for this year
we started at 3:05 in January so we're up
for the year
but it's really been bouncing around between 3:15
and 3:30 basically the whole year
now this is up 3.3% from November of 24
which was 305,000
and this has been the story of this year again
we've only had one month
and that was the month of January
where we saw a decrease in the median sales price
otherwise
we have seen increases every single month this year
so our prices going up or prices going down
well you look at the median prices are still going up
November 3.3% increase
we've now had three straight months
of at least a 2.9% increase in the median sales price
that's after you know
we had several months where
you know for
so January was minus two point one %
then we had a weird February that was up 5%
that was mainly because February 24th was soft
and so comparing year over year
it was just comparing to a soft month
but then March was only a 1.6%
April was only a 1.6% increase
may was only a 1.9% increase
and then after that we really started to see some
some upward
movement in terms of these median sales prices
June 2.9 July 2
August back to down to 1.3 and then September 3.5
October 2.9 November 3.3 so a lot of numbers
but all of that to say basically
since mortgage rates came down right
this is you can
if you overlayed this with mortgage rates
you would see that there's a direct correlation to
once mortgage rates start to get
you know below six and a half percent on average
that's when you really start to see
prices start to go up
same thing with average sales price
we had a 2.1% increase year over year
the average if you're interested
I don't like the average as much as the median
but the average was 388,000 in change
2.1% increase from the 3
80 and change that we had November 2024
we've had unlike the median
we have had an increase every single month
year over year for the average sales price
now October was close
October was only 1.4% increase
but we hop back up to 2.1% increase in November
so people ask you what's the average sales price
technically it's three 88
but I think that the
that the most accurate metric is the median
315,000 percent of list price received
we've been hovering around
you know the low 98% range now for quite some time
we're still there 98.2% so
this is a percentage found when dividing a property
sales price by its most recent list price
so in other words after any price reductions
then taking
the average for all properties sold in a given month
not accounting for seller concessions
like closing costs commissions etcetera alright
so this just takes whatever that last
list price was and just divides it by
by what you
what the home ended up selling for
and you come up with 98.2% on average
so list a home for $100,000 reasonably speaking
you would expect to get nine 98,200
how does that compare to last year
November of last year 98.3 right
so yeah
slight decrease that's really a meaningless decrease
more importantly
this is right in line with historical averages right
historical like if you go back to 2017 through the pan
you know until the pandemic
we were hovering right around 98%
that was that's a healthy number right
so this is not all these numbers are healthy
but in terms of the percent of list price received
that's a healthy number sellers are
are getting pretty close to what they have a home
what a property listed for now
I wish we had a way to
to look at how many
you know listings have had price reductions
over this period of time and
and compare that I would have to really do a
a tremendous deep dive in order to find
that information
and I currently don't have time for that
but that would probably tell a little bit of a different
story right
we've had a lot more price reductions
than we probably did in 2019
and so it's not a complete apples to apples
but it's a good metric
housing affordability index
after two straight months of us being at 99
and let me see if that got revised
no it didn't OK
so after September and October
we're both at 99 like so close to getting to 100
which 100 is the number that we want
100 means that the
median household income is capable of affording
the median priced home right
based on incomes based on home prices
based on interest rates
unfortunately mortgage rates went up a little bit more
yes even though the Fed lowered their rates
mortgage rates have gone up slightly
not dramatically slightly
the bond market
didn't
really completely agree with the Federal Reserve
and how they approached it
and so the bond market really controls
30 year fixed rate mortgages and
and so that's
the reason why these numbers are going up and down
so November the
the housing affordability index dropped back down to 96
so the market got less affordable primarily because
again we're still seeing prices going up
and you get
that combined with mortgages are also going up
affordability goes down
and that was down 3% compared to November 24
which was at 99
inventory of homes for sale
this is a another number that always gets revised
so let's look at October for a second
the unrevised October number was 66 0
1 6,601
that got revised down to 6,096
so this is pretty common
that it'll get revised down by about 5 to 600 units
right so that was pretty close to 500 units
very similar to
when we're looking at the
at the pending sales number
and so that ended up being a 34.1% increase
which is by the way
the largest increase of the entire year
that's the largest increase that we've seen in
in maybe since I've done this podcast
34% increase from October of 2024
which was 4,547 homes for sale at the end of that month
so up from that to 6,096 huge increase right
October a lot of homes on the market
if you're a buyer you love it
you've got more options
than you've had in quite some time
now the November number came in at 63
93 6,393
so basically 60 four hundred
so that's gonna get revised down to probably like 50
900 ish 58 50
something like that
and but that's still gonna be a big increase over
November of 2024 which is 4,409
it won't be I don't think the
the 34% increase
I think it'll probably be closer to 30%
which is what we've had you know
that's kind of been
where we've been tracking for the past several months
but you can see this is one of those things
where it just keeps going up
I do think we're going obviously this is going to
if my prediction is accurate
whereas this final dot if you're looking on YouTube
that's going up
is actually gonna start curving downward
after this gets revised that's what I think will happen
but we're still historically higher than we've been
since 2,011 in terms of just at a snapshot
at a glance how much inventory do we have on the market
so this is again
one of the stories
that has told us what's going on in the market right
now a lot more homes for sale right now
than there have been in over a decade right
I mean 2011 my
my 15 year old was 1 year old in 2,011
and that's the last time
we had this much inventory on the market
it's crazy it's crazy to think about
I wasn't getting much sleep when she was 1 year old
I wasn't even in real estate back then
you know there's like so much I
I've experienced multiple lifetimes worth of stuff
in in the past 14 years
and that's how long it took us to get
you know to get
or that's how long back you have to go to
to find inventory
at a similar level to where it is right now
now that being said
buyers still aren't happy
they're not happy with the inventory
and there's a lot of reasons for that
which we've talked about in the past with this
with this show
but just cause there's a lot of inventory
doesn't mean there's a lot of good inventory right
and unfortunately
there's a lot of bad inventory out there
a lot of homes that aren't fixed up
have aging everything aging roofs
AC units all those sorts of things
and sellers have to come to grips with that
they have to
you have to make your home stand out from the others
you have to
to put in the sweat equity to make sure that you get
you know the house looking good
it's got to stand out right
it's my job when I'm when I list a house
it's my job to market the house
but the homeowner it's the homeowner's job
to make sure that the house actually looks
the way it's supposed to look
me as a realtor
I can only do so much when it comes to that
now months supply of inventory takes basically that
that number that we just looked at
the inventory of homes for sale
and divides it by the monthly
pending sales from the last 12 months
well remember
those are both numbers that get revised and
and that are kind of a flawed number currently
so this is another one we got to look back at October
October went up to 4.2 months supply of inventory
that's a big increase from October 24
that was only at 3.3
that being said I've told you guys for a long time the
the tipping point for when this is
like a true buyer's market
in my opinion is 4.5 months supply
and that's because of the
of the weird things going on with new construction
most people would say it's 6 months the
that old way of thinking is long gone
it's long gone in fact
I was just talking to a client today that's
that's looking at homes and they were saying
this feels like a buyer's market
they were saying that from a buyer's perspective
I was like yeah
it feels like that because it
it pretty much is I mean
it's not it's different right
the buyer's market that we're used to seeing is a
is a buyer's market that has a ton of foreclosures
a ton of short sales and we
we don't have that
and I'm gonna be talking about that in in
in my bold predictions
episode by the way
will cover some of those numbers
which are quite interesting but
but this is a buyer's market without foreclosures
is what we're looking at or at least what we're going
what we're moving towards
so November says currently 4.5 months of inventory
I think that that's gonna get revised down
probably a good bit cause October originally was 4.7
that got revised down to 4.2
so we'll probably see November get revised down to 4.0
or 4.1 so we're
we're still in the low fours when it comes to months
supply of inventory after all these things get revised
and so you know
kind of feels like a buyer's market
but like if we got to 4.5 months of inventory
it would really
really like that would be it would be unmistakable
nobody would be complete nobody would be arguing like
we need to get to six months for it to be a buyer's
market no
everyone at that point would just be like yeah
this is this is a buyer's market right
that would be
that would mean a lot of demand
would have to exit the marketplace
in order for that to happen
and we've had supply outpacing demand
that's why these numbers have been going up right
that's what happens supply outpaces demand
that means that month supply goes down
and so you know it
it would it would for
for this number to sorry
that's why it goes up for this number to
to go up substantially more
cause we kind of hit a wall here at 4.1 4.2
so for that number to go up to 4.5
we need to see some demand erosion
we need and that could happen from a recession
that could happen from
people getting scared about elections
that could happen from a lot of things
I think in general
that we're going to see more stability
in this upcoming year but it's everyone's guess
it's everyone's guess
but that's all for today's market stats episode
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just have a conversation
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we will talk to you guys next time!