Hello everyone
and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville
South Carolina I'm your host as always
Stan McCune Realtor right here in Greenville
South Carolina
and you can find all of my contact information
in the show notes
if you need to reach out to me
for any of your real estate needs
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this is the Christmas episode right
you're I'm let's see here
I'm gonna be releasing this
let's see here on Christmas Eve alright
if you're one of the ones listening this
on Christmas Eve or on Christmas Day
you're a die hard listen let me know
if you are listening to this on Christmas Eve
or Christmas Day let me know
I'm gonna take you out for a drink or something
because that is something unique
and I really appreciate it
I'm wearing my ugly sweater
if you can't see it is Santa riding a t Rex
I bought this a few years ago
I don't get to wear it very often and when I do
I enjoy it so
doing that for you guys today got
I'm recording this on December the
the 16th in case you remember
that's when I recorded my last episode
yes because I want to have
something that resembles the holiday season
I am trying to crank out my
my Christmas episodes
but I did put on the ugly sweater for you guys
so you guys would be able to see that
in between episodes right
that I'm recording
but basically what I've Learned from
from this episode this episode
I'm gonna be recap my 2025 bold predictions
and seeing how I did
what I've Learned is that I either need to wait until like
the middle of January of the next year to go over this
to like have all of the data basically ducks in a row
and but by that time nobody cares right
nobody cares by January you know
20th or even January 15th
like what my bold predictions were in 2025
so I do this as one of my December episodes and we'll
we'll have to take a guess on some of these things
but most of these things
we already know exactly what's going to happen and
or what already has happened
and so we can look back and say
whether I nailed the bold predictions
or not I love making my bold predictions
and I love seeing how I did
so let's jump right in so we'll start right at the top
I predicted that mortgage rates would remain above 6%
per Mortgage News Daily for the entire year
did that happen or did it not happen
I'm pulling up I've got the
if you're watching on YouTube
I've got the Mortgage News Daily website up
and if you're looking at the chart right
the blue line is the Mortgage News Daily line
and 6% is at the bottom
it never went below 6% for the entire year
we did it we accurately made a bold prediction
there were a lot of people saying that
it would go into the fives
I heard a lot of people saying that
you heard people in the White House saying that
and so this was something that to me seemed very clear cut
there was always the possibility it could go below 6%
but with all the volatility that we had in the economy
and otherwise
it just seemed pretty much baked in
it was gonna be above 6%
and that was a bold prediction
but it was a bold prediction
all of these bold predictions that I make
I have some sort of reason for making them
whether it's data or not
and so that one I nailed
this next one I got half and half
so I I asked two questions all in one
will we have a recession and will inflation go to 2%
I said there would be no recession and that in
during this calendar year
and that inflation would return to
at or below 2% by the fourth quarter
using the Federal Reserve's
measure of inflation all right
so let's go to so well
we'll start with the with the recession talk right
we did not have a recession
it looked like we might in the first quarter right
when the first quarter came in negative on GDP
it seemed like okay
all we need is two straight quarters
but then the second quarter bounce back
now here we go
one thing that we're gonna run into with this episode
again this is
something that is completely outside of my control
because of the government shutdown
there's a lot of data that we don't have
now I've heard rumors
that the third quarter may have been negative
but you have to have two consecutive quarters that
that are negative
and again at the moment
we don't know
we don't have the third quarter numbers yet
because the government shut down
there's still a lag in data
even though the government's been back open
for you know roughly a month at this point
so long story short
I got that part right now as far as the inflation
I was not right on that we look at PCE
which is what I said this is the one that I said
that I would be tracking for inflation
it's actually gone up
it started to go down at the beginning of the year
but here's what happened tariffs right
as soon as the tariffs hit
you see an increase from April
and it's gone up every single month since
basically every single month since April
it's now sitting at 2.8% April was at 2.3
so now it's at 2.8%
this is just an impact of the tariffs
now as many people have argued the
the tariffs have roughly a one time impact
and it's not an ongoing inflationary thing
however what we've had is some of the tariffs have
have hit and then been taken away
and then other tariffs started and
and come back and forth and so what we didn't have was
we didn't have this one time increase
and then flatline and then maybe a decrease
what we've had is it has steadily gone up
because there have been increasingly
more tariffs added a few taken away
but for the most part
it's just kept going up
as a result of the tariffs
so I I'm at one and a half out of two so far
I got half of that one right
I asked if there were any more big changes
coming to the real estate industry
with regard to the Multiple Listing Service
with regard to contracts clear cooperation
etcetera and just as I did when I
when I made these predictions last year
I'm gonna say the same thing this year
I'm not making any official statements
I don't have any insider information here
but I'm I basically
predicted that it was gonna be business as usual
this year which is very different from
2024 which had all sorts of you know
all sorts of major changes in our industry
which we've talked about before
but long story short
I was right there weren't any major big changes
I said there would be some paperwork changes
and that was the case
we did have some paperwork changes
but nothing too dramatic
it was mostly tweaking what was already in place
so check box I need to have some kind of a sound
I need to have you know something like that
every time I get something right or wrong
maybe I can have this video edited to
to put that in there
so if you're listening to this and you do hear that
just know that I did that after the fact
I don't usually do that sort of editing on
on my podcast
but maybe I'll make an exception this time
appreciation depreciation
I predicted that we would see between
1 and 2% appreciation
now we just talked about the market stats
last month but I am going to for
for the for the past month in last week's episode
but I'm going to pull this up again
the median sales price
to show you guys that our current 12 month median
is 1.6% right
like I hit the nail on the head now again
we don't have the December numbers
but I don't see any reason to believe
that the December numbers are going to
sway this dramatically I think that I nailed it
I said we would either depreciate by 1%
all the way up to 2% appreciation and again
tracking that based on the median sales price
that's not exactly one to one
as far as appreciation or depreciation
but it's the best way that we can track it
and right now sitting at 1.6% for the past 12 months
I think that that is
I think it's gonna end up being below 2% for the year
which will be again I got that one right
membership in the Greater Greenville Association
Realtors up or down
I predicted that we would almost certainly
have a down year in
in membership
just as a result of people struggling in the market
and so when I recorded that
we had total number of users in
in and I was tracking this kind of a clunky way
I would do this differently now
but regardless it's I'm gonna use the same metric
I did before
basically I looked at the multiple listing service
really more of a multiple listing service
membership than a GGR membership
but by that metric we had 5,090 users
so that includes Realtors
that includes affiliate members
that includes appraisers
and others 5,090 users in
in the Great Agreement Association of Realtors
Multiple Listing Service that did not go down
I predicted it would go down
it actually is very similar
it's 5,140 it went up ever so slightly and again
we don't know exactly what's gonna happen in
in the month of December
you know for the for the rest of this year
but I'm gonna take the L on this one right
so that's No. 5
I've gotten three and a half out of 5 correct so far
let's look at No. 6 inventory
will it go up or down
and I predicted that we'll continue to see
month on month increases in inventory
until February or March probably March
at that point the month on month increases will stop
but the year on year increases will continue
until June or July
not too happy about this
let's pull up the inventory numbers here
so month on month
we basically had increases the entire year
so I was wrong at that point
it did not stop in the month of March
it continued on April was higher than March
May was higher than April
June was higher than may
so forth and so on for the entire year
we're finally gonna see November
if you listen to last week's episode you know
that November is probably gonna be down from October
that's gonna be our first decrease month on month
but what about year on year
I said that year on year increases would
continue until July I was dead wrong on that one too
we're still having year on year increases
even late into the year
and so I just I got all of that wrong okay
so I'm at three and a half
inventory ended up being a lot
we had a lot more inventory than I predicted
so I'm at three and a/2 correct out of 6 pending sales
No.7 pending sales will they continue to increase
and I said yes
I'm predicting a pending sales increase year on year
in every month in 2025 let's look at pending sales
if I can ever find it
did pending sales increase every single month
yes they did now November is going to be close
but I set the rules I set the rules
now we obviously
we won't have December for quite some time right
cause this is a number that gets revised
so the November number
currently is showing a 38% decrease
year over year but that's gonna get revised up
and it's gonna be really close
really close to this number
I said last week that it's gonna be either slightly
above or slightly below but I'm giving myself this one
because so far
all the ones that we have were an increase and
and so I'm gonna give it to me four and a half
correct out of seven so far
number eight I said
cash transactions versus financing
I said that I believe that we will
see cash transaction between 21 to 23% of closings
this was one that I actually
I had open and then it got closed on me
so you guys can watch me in real time
as I pull this up in the Multiple Listing service
alright if you're watching on YouTube
this is really exciting stuff
like this is probably the most exciting
thing that you're gonna see all day
so here we go let's look at
let me make sure I'm doing this correctly
cash transaction yeah
I'm doing this correctly alright
we're going to set look at what sold closing date
year to date and then
that comes out with 16,926
pull up my handy dandy calculator
16 9:26 now how many of those were cash
let's see here
I'm having to work around
I've got so many different screens open here
I'm having to work around here
okay I've got to add a field
household thankfully
I've done this a few times
so this doesn't take me too long alright household cash
alright 3,745 so what percentage does that come out to
3,745
22.12% thank you guys for
for sticking with me on that 22.12% you're
you have to be wondering Stan
how are you a wizard
you predicted 21 to 23% of closings would be
cash transactions and it came out to 22% listen
I have I have a gift OK
some kind of a prophetic gift or something like that
so yeah
I nailed it so what are we at
I think five and a half out of out of
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
five and a half out of eight is I believe
where I'm at right now so I nailed that one
next one No. 9
will Greenville County
make onerous restrictions on development
I said yes
I'm quite confident that they will impose restrictions
that up to this point
they haven't
and they you know
our current county council
they don't like development and I understand why they
they don't want you know they
they wanna try to preserve
Greenville in in
you know in a
in a way that that it hasn't been preserved
I don't know it like makes sense on the surface
but it's like
you can't like what they're trying to do isn't
isn't really helping
and housing affordability is a disaster right now
and so
stopping development just hurts housing affordability
all across the board
but I was right on this one
six and a half out of nine
Greenville County did a bunch of things
really the big one was that they
that they passed a year long moratorium
on cluster developments
while rewriting rules around this type of ordinance
now I'm not gonna get into this
but cluster developments are like one of the
one of the main things that
or one of the main ways that we have made it that
that developers in this area could make reasonable
responsible developments
and they passed a moratorium on that they
they had put a sunset on this Bill
or on this ordinance that had
basically made it that you had to make lot sizes
at least one and a/2 acre minimum
if it's if it requires a septic in an unzoned area of
of Greenville County
they put a sunset provision in there
to make it seem like they were gonna reconsider it
they never reconsider it they just extended it alright
so that's another
really strict thing on development
they created permanent riparian buffers of 50
100 150 feet county wide
depending on the size of the property so
so basically you've got bodies of water
streams and things like that
you've got all of these buffers
that you can't develop anywhere near those streams
very little data to support you know
there is reasonable data to support
obviously
you don't want to get too close to bodies of water to
to contaminate them
but they were just pulling numbers out of a hat
they created a study
committee to discuss short term rentals
that's not gonna be good right
if you're an Airbnb owner
get ready
and they authorized the Planning Commission to hire
Tischler Bice to study an impact fee
OK impact fees are fees imposed on developers
in whenever they develop a house
they say that they do these impact fees
basically it's per lot it's
it's just a fee the developer has to pay per lot
in order to start a development
and they say it's for infrastructure
the problem is it
it is never enough to impact the infrastructure
and even though
it's not enough to impact the infrastructure
because it's so expensive
you know infrastructure stuff is super expensive
that impact fee gets tripled
and passed along to the consumer
which is the buyer
so it makes housing affordability less affordable
basically doesn't help only hurts for the most part
but it makes Greenville County and
and the County Council
constituents feel like they're doing something right
they're hurting the developers
that's the big bad developers
they're not hurting the developers
developers are making tons of money right now
they're hurting the they're hurting the buyers
they're hurting all the people that are in their 30s
and haven't bought a house yet
that's who they're hurting
but they don't really care
so I was right on this one
six and a half out of 9 I got correct
and final 10 out of 10 I said
will sellers stop paying buyer agents right
one of the big things that happened last year was
this lawsuit was lost
by the National Association of Realtors
and it completely changed
the structure whereby Realtors can
can get paid there was a lot of
a lot of angst in the real estate world
among Realtors
that buyer agents would stop getting paid
and that would just make buyer agency go away
we had some episode where I talked about that
and I predicted cause
this was gonna be the year that we really saw
the full implementation of all of this
I predicted that sellers
we're still going to see the value of buyer agents
that they that they are still providing a value of
of bringing buyer clients to listings
and helping them get those listings under contract
and I was correct
sellers have continued to pay buyer agents
I'm not gonna discuss how many apples
or how many oranges
which is what the National Association of Realtors
they love to use you know
apples and oranges
because we're not allowed to use numbers
I'm not gonna discuss any numbers
not allowed to do that
that's a really strict thing right now
but long story short
you know let me say it this way okay
so I represent both sides
I represent buyers I represent sellers
the way I approach this with my sellers is
I explain to them I tell them hey
you can pay and offer to pay a buyer agent
any number that you want including zero
it's entirely up to you
and I let them make the decision what they want to do
and I've not ever had one say
you know what that that's a great idea
I'm not I'm not gonna pay him
I'm just gonna I'm just gonna look for
someone that doesn't have a buyer agent
or someone that
that can afford 100% to pay for their buyer agent
I've not yet personally had a client do that
not yet run into a situation
where anyone else had a client that did that either
and so we have a
a situation here
where buyer agents are still seen as essential
to a real estate transaction
and I think they should be I think that that is a
a positive
I'm glad that sellers have come to that conclusion
that might change right
because again there's no price fixing in this world
sellers might decide
maybe if the market becomes a seller's market
maybe then we see buyer agent commissions
change in some meaningful way
I don't know but it didn't happen in 2025
and I predicted
that there wouldn't be any meaningful changes in 2025
and I was right
I got seven and a half out of 10 correct
I believe if I've kept up correctly
that's the best I've ever done
with these bold predictions
and so I am very proud of myself
and I'm very proud of you guys
my listeners
thank you guys so much for listening and I hope you had
if you're probably
most of you are listening this after Christmas
I hope you had a very Merry Christmas again
if you're listening this on or before Christmas
please let me know because we're going out
we're gonna get something to drink
but you have to let me know on or before Christmas okay
and if it's on Christmas I
I probably won't respond and if it's before
if it's Christmas Eve I might not respond then either
but I will look at it
I'll respond when I get the opportunity
so thank you guys so much for watching listening
all my contact info is in the show notes
if you need a realtor in the Greenville area and
and by the way I've told you guys
80% of my closings this year have been
outside of Greenville County
I don't just work Greenville County
Anderson Pickens
Spartanburg all of those
a Coney Greenwood everything
and please like rate review
subscribe to the show all those good things
and we will talk again for one final 2025 episode
my 2026 bold predictions next week
talk to you guys later!