[SPEAKER_02]: The markets never sleep, but sometimes they do pause for egg knock.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now we're going to look back and unwrap the year that was.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's right, 25 gave us lots of surprises, lots of changes, lots of the volatility.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so today we're going to take a bit of a step back from the daily new cycle and reflect.

[SPEAKER_01]: Talk about the things that we got right, the things we got wrong, what was on our naughty list on our nice list, and give you some predictions for 2020-26.

[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to Invest Fock.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm Justin Klein, and I will agree with him.

[SPEAKER_02]: And this is our 2025 holiday special.

[SPEAKER_02]: The year markets overall, and for you big lessons, but we're going to start with number one of the most surprising market new of the year.

[SPEAKER_02]: What was yours?

[SPEAKER_01]: Mine was probably the wholesale collapse in volatility risk premiums, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: The

[SPEAKER_01]: Unusually low considering what happened earlier in the year and you had this spike after the duration day Terrif Luthland, but you've essentially had a big reshuff leg of the global economy and Volatility is just bitten non-existent for in most of the years That was kind of the big surprise that I had come again in the years, especially because typically you know post-election New presidency.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's always a ton of change

[SPEAKER_01]: are to register pretty much as if they were that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's funny.

[SPEAKER_01]: What I am.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was foreign stock out performance.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's been languishing for so long.

[SPEAKER_02]: What do you guys like?

[SPEAKER_02]: Should I put it to the foreign markets?

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, it, it, that really happened.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was, you know, the thing that everybody was just waiting for.

[SPEAKER_02]: But what it tells you is, flow's battered, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: After even though I get into the year and after the duration of the money is still being in the US marginally, and that is pushing money into the foreign markets, we know no e-mail event should do.

[SPEAKER_02]: I now, there's a strong trend and still why I get a critical idea out there, so I thought that was a very big surprise when talking about what expected for the year going into 2020-25, it was that you probably still have enough performance of the US for that in my last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, what thing that I think I got right was actually the opposite.

[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of expected some sort of international performance for multiple reasons, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: You had a shifting of economic regime.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had a presidency and a administration coming in that said they wanted to get very insular, and they wanted to reassure supply chains, do all these things, such that investor capitals probably get a flow elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't think it would happen to the extent that it did.

[SPEAKER_01]: One thing that I think I got wrong was I kind of underestimated how long this barbecue leadership were holding.

[SPEAKER_01]: right it seemed to me coming into this year maybe rates coming down all sorts of catalysts for a broadening of market activity but still for most of the year it's the same theme driving the same areas of the market.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now you're starting to see a bit of a rotation out of that residence.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is it going to hold who knows?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but that's kind of what I expected earlier in the year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.

[SPEAKER_02]: My god, I was bold.

[SPEAKER_02]: Gold.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gold.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've been bullish gold for a number of years and didn't expect it to form this well.

[SPEAKER_02]: I should.

[SPEAKER_02]: No, no, no, no.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, definitely got that one, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, yeah, wrong was that tariffs would.

[SPEAKER_02]: I thought they would have a larger impact to share.

[SPEAKER_02]: And companies have been able.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's been too full.

[SPEAKER_02]: Helpies from loaded tariffs in a big way.

[SPEAKER_02]: So they had a lot of inventory.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: and their flight machines supply machines could be more flexible that I could think everybody and expected.

[SPEAKER_02]: And also the other side of the game is Trump's talker.

[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't think that he would constantly be E.

[SPEAKER_02]: bringing back the, bringing me down these terraces, even if there's so much happening for, I think defectively it is all from about 2% to like 10% where it's so beautiful, it's gonna be so beautiful.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm just starting to see Jerome down and talked about it and this press conference that you know, you're starting to see, but what's what seven bites, they're supposed to be a variation of that, plus and you know, the economy is certainly

[SPEAKER_02]: the drastic impact that accident.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's not having a wholesale breakdown.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's more of recreating the pandemic air at K-shaped where wealthier people are doing very well, or four people are not doing well.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, last one is chart or debit point that actually matters.

[SPEAKER_02]: So what, from the, if I had lied down there, it's very easy social media as well as obviously traditional media headlines.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's all about clickbait.

[SPEAKER_02]: All about making something that's very,

[SPEAKER_02]: big or very small seeing big.

[SPEAKER_02]: What is actually big?

[SPEAKER_02]: But sees falls out at times.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it goes back to what I got wrong, which was about market breadth, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: When you look at the S&P 4.93 versus the Mac set and how they perform about just this here, but in previous years as well, it kind of tells you about multiple layers of risk, which is concentration risk because most people are just heavily concentrated in the S&P 500 or in other U.S. market tracking indices, which are heavily oriented towards tech more than they ever have been oriented towards AI.

[SPEAKER_01]: and that just gives you the warning of okay if you're portfolio's highly concentrated, you have east of electric exposure to a huge market drawdown on the flip side.

[SPEAKER_01]: It also tells you that there's a lot of opportunities out there for growth, from the areas of the market that have been underserved over the past two years.

[SPEAKER_02]: My number one statistic, that, and nobody talks about stuff, is bank lending.

[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody talks about what's going on with the Fed lowering rates, I think you're in Kyrie, which I think you're in Kyrie again, like all of that stuff in matters on the margins, but thanks for everybody.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, commercial banks and then let me.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's the number one fact in creating dollars in the quibbi and the system that allows the economy to stay afloat, that not have a major default cycle, in credit that drives, draft it on employment or major bankruptcies and declines and asset prices, etc.

[SPEAKER_02]: So as long as banks are still lending.

[SPEAKER_02]: I would also say everything else doesn't matter, but most things don't matter about much because it's just pretty multiplicity.

[SPEAKER_02]: And you continue to see that to this year, bank Lenny Rove has continued to accelerate modestly.

[SPEAKER_02]: They were in a four and a half five per second year of a friend of your growth, which is not amazing, but it's solid.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why I think everything is not all together from those firms.

[SPEAKER_02]: Notty or nice.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now what are the average investor behaviors and themes of this year?

[SPEAKER_02]: that were naughty and Max, what did you have?

[SPEAKER_01]: One thing that was really naughty is kind of a presurgence of chasing meme stocks.

[SPEAKER_01]: Mill in 2020 was a 2021.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was end of 2020 when game started blew up.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had a bunch of investors flowing into these names that had very little fun to mail value, but had so sort of readbait towards hedge funds and when that goes with our brought the broader theme of our following

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, damn, everything is in a speculation.

[SPEAKER_02]: I actually get all that, it's just, yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Kyle, she says they're not good.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a corkics, they said they're not good.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're market makers.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, they're, they're reality for all of you out there is that, you know, people who often times follow this crazy body in.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're not the people that make money.

[SPEAKER_01]: But at the time you're hearing about it, why don't you start even making?

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't show leftfully to that.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're exit liquidity for somebody else.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that is a naughty thing on my naughty, naughty list.

[SPEAKER_01]: And hopefully it's not about this next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: What about you?

[SPEAKER_02]: To me, the most naughty thing of the year was chasing yield in covered politics.

[SPEAKER_02]: And there are so many of these covered politics, and they may be chasing yields in general.

[SPEAKER_02]: one general, but like this is a new way to chase you, and that the way that the SEC allows these companies to say they have an 8% yield, 10% yield, and I think that when it reality, it's not you.

[SPEAKER_02]: We run a color culture edge, and we have to take to call the income that comes from the options.

[SPEAKER_02]: As you know, there's part of the total return profile.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a way to mitigate risk.

[SPEAKER_02]: There are positives about it, but so many people have put their money in thinking that this is a safe way to produce income.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the reality is, it's not.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's safe way to do it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's because how yield is to be framed as I hold something.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then I get money for all the income.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm getting given in income.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not necessarily the case.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, we're caught right here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Getting the premium income.

[SPEAKER_01]: But at the end of the day, you could also

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because it's called the way, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And I agree, I think across the board, under education, or in a way, trying to fool people is got a big, a big threat out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely on my naughty list.

[SPEAKER_02]: On the nice list, what do you have for it?

[SPEAKER_02]: Nice list list and games that you, you kind of like being agree with.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hmm, something that I liked and agree with is I think towards the end of the year, so maybe the past three months or so, people started talking about diversification and market breadth a bit more and so people who Listen, that's really tough.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is very, very tough when you see all of these, you know, a couple of years ago with space tours, companies or you see these server rack companies, SFCI, you see all these companies that are just

[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely headed for the most, or your ASTS, right, or your satellite phone company, is it or why not?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's really hard to say this to it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so, typically, we're only talking about the risks after it's all blocked up.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel as though in the past six, six months, maybe past the full months, we started to see a bit of people talking about rotation, talking about some of the dangers.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so if you stay in diversified for the entire year in spite of the concentrated theme, you're almost racist.

[SPEAKER_03]: Right there.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that I liked was good Uranium and an energy investment, I mean, Uranium's done a little bit on this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: We've been long at four or a few years and it really took off the next year and I think that is staying power.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so while there's a lot of,

[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of under appreciation of the CapEx fan in AI and it's going to make a lot of the next seven names, very, make their business less profitable, less attractive overall to be honest.

[SPEAKER_02]: I still think there's a lot of infrastructure side of the AI and data center business that has staying power.

[SPEAKER_02]: You may slow down a little bit, but in general demand, if I had four, especially energy, it is going to be there.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so, I, I think the rating chart was my favorite theme that I think has stain.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, school and egg roll, but maybe in the Uranium, because it actually has such real-world application.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: No, let's take a look at the listener call of the year right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hi, my name is Joe from Greenhill South Carolina.

[SPEAKER_00]: I have a question that's a little bit more macro.

[SPEAKER_00]: just as our currency as a country has gotten into this beyond currency with no real backing it seems like the sad and the government when they don't feel like they can raise taxes just print the money which is ultimately devaluing our currency over time and there doesn't see to be any indication that they're going to stop doing that they're likely going to do that more and more into the future.

[SPEAKER_00]: What do you think a good safe haven for that would be in the long term?

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm in my 30s and just, I guess, somewhat worried about somewhat bigger collapse of the system, just the value of the dollar in general.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is stocks a good place to be in the event of something like that happening?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is gold and silver a good place to be in the event of something?

[SPEAKER_00]: like that happening is land a good thing to be in in the event of something like that happening I'm just trying to wonder trying to figure out a plan I guess for something like that were to happen because it seems like our currency is just devalued year after year and I just don't see any

[SPEAKER_00]: change in that coming.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for your answer on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_02]: When you're initial thoughts when you hear that caller, really digging into, I think something that's on everyone's mind, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's a great call because it really echoes the anxiety that a lot of people have.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not just about the system, but what it means for that, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: We, us, everybody, show me back there by the camera.

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably most people will say, really paid him dollars.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we all exist in a dollarized economy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And what we see it is after a decade of not much inflation, not much loss in pricing power in the dollar.

[SPEAKER_01]: massive change in the last five years and explosion of death and an explosion of death right coming out of the pandemic which a quarter of debt roughly of all U.S. debt was printed during the pandemic and some of those things are definitely related to each other and creates this level of anxiety about okay how I protect my ability to not just save money for retirement but ensure that that money that I've saved is actually worth something

[SPEAKER_01]: They say that, you know, the most difficult assumption you make about entire about retirees, how much money you have, and that's not necessarily true, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: You shouldn't be saving from this pile of money because you think it's a matter of number because the true uncertainty is when your consumption bubble will be.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that is in part affected by you, but also it part affected by what the pricing and purchasing power rather about that currency is.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so it makes sense.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the reason why I call this called years

[SPEAKER_02]: It really encompasses the debasementary, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: That's kind of what I'm also talking about.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's the debasementary of why gold is over 10 to go up.

[SPEAKER_02]: And gold's over, Cornelian, with the amount of debt outstanding that we have, and obviously, that's exploding.

[SPEAKER_02]: So gold is over exploding along with geopolitical concerns.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, and so I do think it's in that sense, it hits home.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, the one problem I had with it is what he says, it's a collapse of this stuff.

[SPEAKER_02]: I do, okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's a bit hyperbolic.

[SPEAKER_02]: What I call it is just, it's a different environment than we used it, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody, and I've been seeing this for a while now, is the people, they say, the

[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, we had COVID, but really the lots of work for everyone still is OE.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the financial crisis.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so, everyone's thinking that, hey, I do this one to collapse.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to have this deflationary bust like OE.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the reality is, it couldn't be further from the truth because it's all going the other way.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's inflating away.

[SPEAKER_02]: The inflation risk is the biggest risk, not inflationary risk.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's what you're seeing in this market, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: You're already seeing commodities reaccelerate.

[SPEAKER_02]: Why?

[SPEAKER_02]: Because if that's easy, I mean, to your fruits that are inflationary.

[SPEAKER_02]: The spending within government is early to need to go higher.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that is the ethos of what is happening.

[SPEAKER_02]: in this economy.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why you have to have this as your base understanding and you need to clear your mind up and oh hey Christ I see us on YouTube all the time.

[SPEAKER_02]: There are YouTube channels that are dedicated.

[SPEAKER_02]: Look at this.

[SPEAKER_02]: This clicks is dedicated to all the housing markets in the collapse again.

[SPEAKER_02]: The problem is, is that people that realize 40% of homes are paid off.

[SPEAKER_02]: Right, there's only a small set of homes that are actually few.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's actually to be foreclosed on.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think it also goes back to how people perceive things that are far away from them.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like sometimes I'm nailing one of the remembers how we did what died I could.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: New York City at these fans and stuff going through the LA.

[SPEAKER_01]: The hostels are full in a similar way.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like people talk about it way as if they were there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I remember driving down PCH and every house was for sale.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't mean like a couple of houses.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean every single house because nobody could afford their homes anymore.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a great time to pick up assets if you had a bunch of money.

[SPEAKER_01]: But like then doesn't happen, but once in drainage, at many different regions, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And so you can't, like you said, frame what the next battle the next war is going to be towards something that is,

[SPEAKER_01]: such an outlier of an event.

[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't help you really cope with the next thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the other issue I have called for no, it's a little issue that we're saying is nothing backs the dollar.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not true, Bethlehem.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so the US government's ability to put to tax and citizens back to the dollar and the federal economy and the fact that the US has 30 of the world's 33 aircraft carriers is daily.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there are a lot of things that do back of the dollar.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I feel like that's commonly a position that's taken by people that are,

[SPEAKER_02]: love the claim and think of this digital currency as replacing the dollar and so the likely to have a replacement of the dollar isn't as likely as just the system changing a bit exactly and that's where I think it's just it's just the vaulting it's changing but I don't think that the system's going to collapse it's just the vaulting it's changing it's a new environment host COVID it's an inflationary environment and you have to adjust your strategy according.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now let's take him to 2026.

[SPEAKER_02]: Lock it happening next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's some base case expectations.

[SPEAKER_02]: So let's talk about two truths and outlier.

[SPEAKER_02]: So what are the two things that are kind of expected?

[SPEAKER_02]: You think will actually play out next year?

[SPEAKER_02]: And what is the outlier?

[SPEAKER_02]: What are you bugging about your wealth?

[SPEAKER_01]: For me, and this is something that has really been a case for a couple of times, right, is we're going to continue to have talks about our session, but at the same time, I think we're going to continue to have historically tight credits, friends, which is something that we've seen over the past six months through a year now, or each and every day, we're talking about, so like you call to me, so you call to me, so you call to me, so you call to me, it's hardly showing up yet in credit markets.

[SPEAKER_01]: I expect that's probably going to continue to next year as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: I like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, John, will you other truth?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I like the truth is volatility continues to be a bit settled.

[SPEAKER_01]: The quid is going to continue to improve rates falling and then so you are probably going to see your resurgence of small and midcap out performance.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to be having it again seeing in a couple of years, but the conditions are right.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's probably a solid prediction of what might happen in 2020.

[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, and I kind of the fits with my couple themes here.

[SPEAKER_02]: Number one is Dollar Request.

[SPEAKER_02]: Dollar was weak pretty much.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you're talking about the whole year, obviously most in the first half of the year, it rallied a little bit in the back half of the year, but overall, Dollar's down pretty significantly this year, especially in their previous years.

[SPEAKER_02]: And now that's the Kiwiya guy, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: They're easing policy into, you know, high 2% of me and if you're just in a fleece rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so, I just don't see anything about path God were for.

[SPEAKER_02]: The dollar, especially if you look at the administration, this administration, if they're wanting to reach short manufacturing, they need to make the dollar.

[SPEAKER_02]: more competitive for enemies to be cheaper and that's something every factory tries to do that tries to improve their economy, lower the value in currency, make their goods, these are cheaper to the best of the world, and that improve that's for you.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that is something I think this administration is in some ways helping out to doing is getting the dollar down.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then number two is, I do think the AI hype will fade.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's already fading out a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're seeing a video kind of slow, especially with what's going on with Google on their TPUs.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so, I think there's a lot of that hype will fade.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I do think that's going to create a lot of opportunity on the back end, but I think that could be something under pressure as we hide it to the next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, what was your outlier?

[SPEAKER_01]: Actually, a bunch of outliers.

[SPEAKER_02]: With your number one.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is hot tea.

[SPEAKER_02]: What's the hot tea up?

[SPEAKER_02]: What?

[SPEAKER_01]: Number one hot take is a big blow up in private equity firms.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: Extended themselves a lot in private debt markets.

[SPEAKER_01]: Deal flow has dried up a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: You've seen them start to lock up certain funds.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there can be a huge blow up in private equity sometime in the next 12 months.

[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other one is the Fed cuts reached to zero.

[SPEAKER_01]: Wow, he's an ally and still if he'd absolutely crazy allyer are they new the new fed board cuts rates to zero Well, I don't think that's gonna happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that's gonna happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that's gonna happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: The same crazy thing is Yeah, I don't do think Prime therapy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say there's some non-zero possibilities.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's always just administration is known to

[SPEAKER_02]: Think outside the box show we said, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Do you think it's that abnormal?

[SPEAKER_02]: Also, um, yeah, you're going to be a challenge with, uh, uh, you know, it's a fed board.

[SPEAKER_02]: I should dip it.

[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see.

[SPEAKER_02]: My other what outlier is a weak dollar will actually be a headway to U.S. That's then the dollar weakness will not be usually as farably as dollar weakness is good.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's you for the economy.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think we're going to be good for the dollar.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to do it for a small cat.

[SPEAKER_01]: If the dollar weakness is demanded, then certainly it could be bad for U.S. assets, because there's just not an international capital flow.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's exactly right.

[SPEAKER_02]: So regardless of what the dynamic is, if it's less rate-striven and more demand driven, I think it's... Yeah, because if all of a sudden, it's not just one here at the dollar down, now the durable trends.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now it's a less clear cut to keep your assets in U.S. markets, and those assets are also

[SPEAKER_02]: That says the bra, which means it will be obviously for an equious thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: So then what that being said, what are the principles that matter no matter what 2020 to a six-prims?

[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: Number one I have is have, I hope I, what do you think's going to happen in 2020?

[SPEAKER_02]: Six, and what should your portfolio look like based on that?

[SPEAKER_02]: No, I'm not saying, yeah, you could be bearish on the market, and you could,

[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, I did.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I need to shift your stuff to your allocation in a year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Your asset allocation, something that how to plan and execute it and kind of continually move towards that plan and update that plan as the information comes across.

[SPEAKER_02]: How much it comes along?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.

[SPEAKER_01]: For me, especially if you have the time horizon if you're an younger investor, it is as much as you can stay invested.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that doesn't mean don't raise cash levels.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's how it would mean when I say stay invested.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean that, you know, missing the 10 best days in a bull run, you can miss a majority of Detroit, for sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so for somebody who is able, has the risk tolerance as a type of rise and to stay invested in the market for the long term, you have to understand that volatility is the price of pay for comb-bounding returns.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so just like any other year in 2026, stay as invested as you tune.

[SPEAKER_02]: I like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I also put down matching your disc, especially in this work day where there's the meme stock craze and there's the cover calling TF craze and uh...

[SPEAKER_02]: money going into obviously pressure notes, commodity in general, which historically now there's an upchamp, but they're historically very vaultful.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you have to really know that when you're getting into that, you know, you're going to experience that volatility, you know, goldlighters have done amazing this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: But a 20% drop in goldlighters.

[SPEAKER_02]: in a month, it's not a question, that could be a normal pullback in that space, so when you're making acid allocation decisions, do it so that you're working towards an angle, and a lot of times it happens, especially older.

[SPEAKER_02]: Only people, maybe a person retirement, and you have a large nest egg.

[SPEAKER_02]: The question is, do you have a money to like, maybe you do, but create a plan, create cash flow analysis, understand what your means are, and a lot of times you don't do you take as much risk as you are willing to take, especially when you have that foam mode and everyone else is making money, they double it money and go all over your

[SPEAKER_02]: in live jibbles.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think my second one is, it's best you can control your fees because they're controlling taxes.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so for an investor who is handling this themselves, I mean we get calls all the time about hey, I really like this thematic AI fund, I look at it, the 10 names are some of the largest names in the U.S., and only investing in a large cap so it only yields 12 names and charges over a percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then it's something that you can so easily avoid that can benefit you in the

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yes, that can show your taxes.

[SPEAKER_01]: You obviously can't control a lot of things that your taxes will be, you can't control.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not being invested in funds that have high turnover.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're in a mutual fund that has 400% turnover because it's chasing momentum, you're going to be tax it on capital gains down the road.

[SPEAKER_01]: So those are two things investors can do to have better returns along.

[SPEAKER_02]: And a piggyback on that is the, I have it is indexing is it right for everybody?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, depending on your situation, how easy you want it to be, but also understanding the rest of the job.

[SPEAKER_02]: What's crazy to me is that there's a new ETF.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, I think it's tops to, yes, it's a top 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: How could he's in the market?

[SPEAKER_02]: That's it.

[SPEAKER_02]: She'll launch that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Top 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: And if you work in for that, right, you can go buy all 10s.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's an only lack of your Uber costs, you're leaving more than you.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you can use index funds, but just don't buy it.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you can know longer strategy, that's going to give you the outsize returns that you're looking for.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll also move on to our rapid fire and light the client.

[SPEAKER_01]: Question number one, what's investing me if it's to die?

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, fees are important.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think people are too mild to questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: Some people just only focus on, like, let's get to the lowest fee.

[SPEAKER_01]: To be the reason for the fee.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you want to get the reasonable fees to accomplish what you're looking to.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some blades are more expensive.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: What is the most commonly blind spot for the average investor?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think is understanding what their goals are.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I have to understand the goals.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are people all the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's one big one.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to understand yourself, but if you were looking for the most money possible, you would only make very risky bets and you'd be willing to lose it all.

[SPEAKER_01]: Frankly, you probably just go to Vegas, but all in your net worth on black and see what happens, you know?

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think that's the biggest blind spot is understanding yourself, understanding what your gold are.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is your sleeper theme for 2026?

[SPEAKER_02]: Ron, I think this year has been about goal.

[SPEAKER_02]: Copper?

[SPEAKER_02]: Copper doesn't want.

[SPEAKER_02]: Copper's on well.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I think Ron, for my views.

[SPEAKER_02]: Evo goals have been lagged.

[SPEAKER_02]: The base entry is going to run.

[SPEAKER_02]: What is the biggest problem with traditional finance media?

[SPEAKER_01]: It is the problem with all media.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are ads and so they try and sell those ads and so they focus on big folks.

[SPEAKER_01]: So ads and you know, it went all the way back to Kramer with his money gun.

[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously I know you really have me saying that because the way you look right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the money gun.

[SPEAKER_02]: But you kind of have drunk the money.

[SPEAKER_01]: I did a funny good idea.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it is generally about selling ads.

[SPEAKER_01]: and keeping you focused.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everything is about keeping you focused.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of people try to get your attention, so people oftentimes don't really get educated from traditional financial b.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a big problem.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is the biggest risk?

[SPEAKER_01]: Investors are underestimated, heading into 2026.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's the dollar still.

[SPEAKER_02]: I still think it's the dollar.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that while people expect the juggerald all agree to and say think that it's the larger impact of what that can be for flows into US assets.

[SPEAKER_01]: more, most importantly US treasuries.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was treasuring a lot of debt.

[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think we're at 90 trillion dollars that they're that's coming due next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Over the past year, 20 to percent of all debt issued has been in treasuries.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I heard something.

[SPEAKER_02]: And T those.

[SPEAKER_02]: T those.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that means that I'm not going to be all over again.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Right, and that's one of the reasons why I decided to do in QE again is because if they need to monetize the deck, value and pitfalls of financial social media.

[SPEAKER_02]: So where do people actually underestimate the value of social media when it comes to finance?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think the answer is the same, which is exposed to who you're exposed to.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think one of the big benefits is you get exposed to the voices that you might not otherwise hear.

[SPEAKER_01]: There was a woman, I think it's Kylo Scanland, a couple years ago I got exposed to a really smart thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's 25 at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: She's the one who coined the phrase vibe session.

[SPEAKER_01]: Brilliant.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now she's all over everywhere.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know what?

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I got a sponsor, which was within the tens of thousands of followers at the same time.

[SPEAKER_01]: You also get exposed to people with millions of followers that are trying to scam you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so it becomes really hard to discern what is good for your financial health and what is effectively financial cancer.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And social media frankly tries to teleport towards the bad.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I think it's more human psychology toast.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, because people on typically, anybody who's getting a financial advice from TikTok should just quit, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you're not going to get any good advice and do you think they're a lot of great?

[SPEAKER_02]: Very interesting people that have great expertise that open you up to really new ideas about the broader economy and how people will system work as well as different sectors as well as experts on different sites that are work tonight And I'm sure you're for a long good time that if respect is you not be again on CDC I think that's great.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like most people fall prey to yeah, it was yeah, but it's kind of about there My last question Which Christmas movie

[SPEAKER_02]: And that was your own style, aren't it?

[SPEAKER_01]: Diart is a Christmas movie, I will die a little.

[SPEAKER_01]: Diart is a Christmas movie, and we've announced her by.

[SPEAKER_02]: If 2025 was a Riffus song, what would it?

[SPEAKER_01]: Underwire.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we're out.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're out.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the funny answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the funny answer.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Mine would mean you were right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: Fair night.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't want to talk to you about Trump's liberation day.

[SPEAKER_02]: Everyone kind of whistle, that's the greater.

[SPEAKER_02]: That would mean, yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not going to do much.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: He did.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like underwater.

[SPEAKER_01]: The new year is obviously a time for baking resolutions that you inevitably will not follow through on.

[SPEAKER_01]: We can follow through on its seven hours.

[SPEAKER_01]: So Justin, what is one resolution you have for investors broadly?

[SPEAKER_02]: It's to understand that near-term performance has far more to do with flows than...

[SPEAKER_02]: fundamentals, you know, uh, obviously fundamentals can can be defiled, but if money is not paying attention to that, positive, fluctuate in the asset class or company or sector.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not going to result in good performance.

[SPEAKER_02]: So flows have to fall in.

[SPEAKER_02]: It can happen the other way, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Where it's popular on Vintuit or it's a meme song, or whatever.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the premier socks of reference example, most of those names, their fundamentals of the business are not a criminal, but the average investor is talking about it and money is flowing into it.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so if you're just chasing near-term performance, really all you're doing is chasing flows for the most far.

[SPEAKER_02]: especially if there's not the underlying improvement in this one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Mind is stop checking your portfolio every day.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think one of the things that guy used to work when he worked at the state street, and I don't see it was John Law, great voice, and he hated voice acting.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was just one of the best voice that ever.

[SPEAKER_01]: But... My name is... You know he said I was fantastic.

[SPEAKER_01]: He would always say the best trade is no trade and that oftentimes is the case now people tend to overreact Do things unnecessarily incur costs not just in you know the difference between when you end up buying back into that name But turnover capital gains tax costs all so much of things.

[SPEAKER_01]: So honestly unplug

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't have to check each and every day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Your blood pressure will thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: You'll be happier.

[SPEAKER_01]: Your family will be happier.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just out of total.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sir.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is a resolution you have for yourself?

[SPEAKER_01]: Actually, too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you have two, you can see.

[SPEAKER_02]: My number one is actually getting better at prompting.

[SPEAKER_02]: AI, to create that like, because WebLearn, if I don't know anything about AI, I've been trying to do in the last three four months, is that the ways we do it, the what you say, is so important what you've got, so many people who want it, you know, type a couple sentences, and it's that you think it's going to create some sort of

[SPEAKER_02]: great outcome.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the reality is they're it's pretty cool, but you have to use it correctly, just like any piece of software.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I want to get better at making sure when I do speed to doing it in the right way, and it's actually creating value and it's creating outcomes that I don't lose for you, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: That's what that was good thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and that it's output is something that is useful.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I have one that is kind of that thing and I think that now we're going to kind of go into the age of the workflow optimization.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's so boring.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it can be really helpful and so my goal is to cut at least one unnecessary process from my workflow each month, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: That helps you out more face out of our clients, get with them with a divot more trend toward listeners.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just improve overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: My other one is personal one because I do this so often.

[SPEAKER_01]: I am so bad at finishing books.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't mean, you know, educational books.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, sometimes you have to take a step back, move into fiction, and I just pick up multiple books, and I just get 75% of the way through all of them.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I do it all at the same time.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's really weird.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm getting a face from Shelby.

[SPEAKER_01]: I deserve that face.

[SPEAKER_01]: I need to finish four books.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a personal thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm proud of your youth, strive for modern cats.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll hear about a new book, and that sounds interesting.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's start this one now, and now all of a sudden they're bleeding together into my bowl.

[SPEAKER_01]: The plants in my hand don't even make sense, because I got four books going on in here.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's my personal book with one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think your other of these years, those solutions should be less bent, though.

[SPEAKER_01]: Bend bills.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, cats.

[SPEAKER_02]: I had a dog.

[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't have thin insurance, I do now.

[SPEAKER_02]: There you go.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, that about does it for our 2025 holiday special.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is our first time doing this.

[SPEAKER_02]: We want to thank all of you because without you, we would not be here.

[SPEAKER_02]: So this was fun.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hopefully you did do it every year.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to switch up my barb next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Get a little bit larger than that.

[SPEAKER_02]: With my lake and gear, of wet defense.

[SPEAKER_02]: You have the evils.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm jealous.

[SPEAKER_02]: This player won't be as sad as it would be.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'll be those fanfare now.

[SPEAKER_01]: You win this ever more.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh man, what have you done for me lately?

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, it's the sports fast, that's sports.

[SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, we really appreciate all of you guys for joining us and we're very excited to be with you in the new year.

[SPEAKER_02]: See you at 226.