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[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the first of our offseason prospect deep dive is going through all 30 farm systems today.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We are kicking it off with the Cincinnati Reds.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Alongside me is my typical co-host.

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[SPEAKER_00]: of the prospect podcast that would be JJ Cooper.

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[SPEAKER_00]: JJ, you've been doing the reds for quite a while.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the show and welcome to prospect podcast top 30 season.

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[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of work to do over the next month.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're flipping it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Just let everyone know.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So Jeff's hosting because I'm the one who does our reds top 30.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Then we'll flip this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You'll see me hosting Jeff before long, but we're also going to bring in everyone else who does our our 30s are plan.

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[SPEAKER_01]: plan could be up, but it's to release four of these a week, not this week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This week we're starting mid week, but starting next week by next week, we'll be rolling out four of these a week so that we can hopefully be done with all of them basically around the start of spring training games.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So

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[SPEAKER_01]: No matter who your organization is, don't worry, we will get to them.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But we are starting off with the Cincinnati Reds and organization.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I have very much enjoyed doing back from the days before I think Joey Vato was in the first top 30 that I wrote up for the Reds.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Back at a time when the Reds had a policy that

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[SPEAKER_01]: that Joey Vato, I remember in the report, it was like, they don't allow their hitters to swing at the first pitch.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So Joey Vato took generally strike one every plate of appearance for like months because in class A, you had to take a pitch before you were allowed to swing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that's sort of remarkable, especially if you had evaluated or watched Joey Votto knowing that sort of played a approach that Votto possessed, I mean, even kind of coming into Pro Ball, that they would force me to do something like that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, unusual things that sometimes we see as challenges.

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[SPEAKER_00]: within the early stages of a professional career.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But let's jump in a little bit to the system here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to follow a similar sort of template throughout all these different podcasts.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The first though is let's get into the decision at one.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Some talented players in terms of the top five here, how difficult was that decision to rank South Stewart at one?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would say this one's not a particularly difficult one because I mean when we do these right you're looking at the combination of we're looking at long term value and when it comes to something like that you're looking at.

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[SPEAKER_01]: proximity to the big leagues is a value, is valuable for that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: God, like South Stewart, who was battling, clean up in a playoff game for the reds last year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So he's as close to being a graduate as you can be without having graduated for prospects status.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then you say, okay, well, what can he be?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I would say that if you compare him to the other guys who are in consideration, other guys at the top of this rankings for the reds.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He does have less defensive value.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think there's any question about that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you want defensive value, I would say do know who is big, but is a catcher?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Tyson Lewis, do you all very much have more defensive value than South Stewart?

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[SPEAKER_01]: But as a pure hitter, I think it was a pretty clear answer there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I expect, I mean, like I think that that South Stewart should be

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[SPEAKER_01]: One of the better hitters in the reds line up in 2026.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I think it'll be at first base more than at third base.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I know he's played some 30s play some second.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I know he's talked in the offseason about trying to slim down a little bit to try to improve his defense.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That will help.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The big thing that, you know, of written about at baseball America will put it in the show notes, he doesn't have an arm to play third base.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's, it's his hardest throw, we have track throws from every throw he made the majors and every throw in AAA.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And if you said, here's kind of like the floor of

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[SPEAKER_01]: Big League third-base spin and they're throwing their max throws and their average throws, South Dorks here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's in the 70s and you're really to make the plays like the make that play where you go to your left, plant your foot, and then throw it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You've got to have at least an average if not an above average, or I'm to make that play consistently, and it's a well below average.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So from that standpoint, that's a concern.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But as a hitter, I want to get what you think too, like you've obviously evaluated Stewart too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: As a hitter, I feel really good about his pure hitting ability

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[SPEAKER_01]: And there's some real power there last year, the the big thing that he kind of unlocked last year, and this is a like a fun development strip, which is he's always been a good hitter, but last year Stuart figured out 2025 now that we're here in 26 he figured out how if you're coming in on me, I can get the bad head out and I can pull the ball for power that it always been kind of the

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[SPEAKER_01]: The big question, because if he's going to be a first base when you don't want a guy who just hits the ball the opposite field, he's always had some up power, but up power is not going to be as consistently productive at the big level as pull power, he showed that ability to develop pull power to go with it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: throw that into a great American ballpark for a team that really could use pure hitters who also can hit for power, cause they have a lot of power in recent years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's a really good fit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I kind of expect him to kind of stand out that way.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What do you like about South Stewart?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Or is there things that really concern you?

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[SPEAKER_00]: No, I think as you talk through the profile a little bit, it kind of rang a bell in my head that it's a lot like,

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was very similar in terms of his profiles like with Blaze Jordanics.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, but I think it was always a tick better, a little bit better of a hitter, a little bit better approach, um, a little bit more game power, but I think sort of like a similar profile where like this guy is a good hitter.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a lot of power.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the big body.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's obviously limited defensively and some way shape reform.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think by Jordan and a little bit of Stuart, it's range, um, the arm for for Jordan much better than it is for Stuart.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's a

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[SPEAKER_00]: But he was a guy that, you know, Jordan and Stuart that kind of had that opo swing where a lot of the power, the hard hit balls were always to the opposite field, which is really good for driving batting average, but kind of limits what that power upside is Stuart adding some raw power, you know, onto the profile swinging a little bit more aggressive this year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think really does a lot of, you know, lifting to get him up to this spot and it makes a lot of sense and he's also a guy and I think we got us sometimes consider this a bat first prospect in San Francisco versus a bat first prospect in Cincinnati is very different.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the landing spot is a lot push here, you know, for that kind of a player, you know, a Spencer steer can have, you know, a 20 plus home run year and be a productive guy just based on counting stats versus, you know, maybe somebody with similar skills that was playing in San Francisco or St. Louis or some of these parks where the ball doesn't fly as much so.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I do think just because of it's being the reds and great America ballpark, a hitter like Stuart has a little bit higher floor, um, than what we anticipate.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And you look at this top five, there's three outliers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think within it, but all guys that have major question marks whether it's defensively or how the bats gonna track and do know Tyson Lewis and then steel hall.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think they all have, you know, their fans, they all have their detractors for a reason.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's more of a hit tool question with Lewis and I think Hal had just hasn't debuted and there are some hit tool which is hitting impact questions there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then do know it's the body and the defensive work that, you know, you just kind of find yourself in a conversation of like, yeah, I could see do know hitting more home runs than Stewart at peak.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But is he a better hitter when, you know, defensively if he's not a catcher?

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[SPEAKER_00]: all that sort of negated.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So it's an interesting conversation, I think within this top five, but clearly for me, I still support Stewart at one, even though I may like the upside of some of the other guys in the top 10 a little bit more.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I do think you hit it that well, which is that we try to always balance this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We'd have, if you go to baseball america.com, we have the BA graves with risk, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And there are players in this top five who have a higher grade for a ceiling, a protect projected potential outcome than Stewart or right at that same level, but just more risk because it's as you said, like South Stewart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I to answer a question that I probably will get from at least one red fan after we do this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you're comparing SouthStore to say Christian and Cardassian from Strand, who was looked to be potentially the first space for a couple of years ago, kind of made us debut, then had to really kind of an injury plague, but also kind of a rough season last year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The key difference here, because this is that first

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[SPEAKER_01]: Corners, it's a high bar that you've got to clear as a hitter.

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[SPEAKER_01]: South Stewart's just a much more pure hitter.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's a more selective hitter.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He understands strikes on more.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And those kind of Christian and Chronocyum strain hits the ball a lot harder at his best, like his raw power is exceptional, but he also just swings as the ball is coming.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's like he's made his decision to swing a lot of times as the ball is coming out of a hand.

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[SPEAKER_01]: South Stewart's a much more selective hitter gets better pitches to hit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that the likelihood of South Stewart being a long-term productive hitter are better or seem to the better.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I can't help but think to go back to an analogy for a player.

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[SPEAKER_01]: South Stewart's a different hitter than Jesse Winker,

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[SPEAKER_01]: where he was coming into last year, I would say was kind of Jesse Winker ask in that with Jesse Winker when he was in the minors, there was always, I remember talking to red officials, they were like, when he gets to a great American ballpark, he'll have power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: When he gets to a great American ballpark, he'll have power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He was always an op-o guy, he never developed that ability to pull it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But if you said with Jesse Winker's career, you had power when he was at a great American ballpark, and then when he went into the power, or just kind of left with it, you know.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It is 100%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: 100%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So let's move on to the next question here in the show.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that is looking back year over year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: How is this system better or worse than in 2024 going into 2025?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would say that the key thing this worse is his chase burns is no longer eligible on this list.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And chase burns was the best pitching prospect that the reds had.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would say it's, so if you want to say that the pitching lies, it's worse.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would say there's no doubt about that because, again, you had chase burns at the top.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Not only that, but rent louder came into last, this past years, top 30 as a player who was just on the customer graduating, who expected to be in the reds rotation for

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[SPEAKER_01]: multiple issues that meant that while he got back on the mound a couple of times, it really wasn't into the airs on a folly that we saw a healthy red ladder.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Zero big league innings in 2025.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's still on the top five, you know, clearly he's number three, but one of the red ladders biggest us, you know, arguments for him coming into the year was so durable.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I had never really had a significant injury.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Didn't have a cut on elbow, didn't have a shoulder injury of significant injury like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But he did miss almost an entire season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So he's a little bit diminished.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would say as a prospect, just a little bit by that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: At the same time, I would say that this system is more balanced now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You talked about, you know, do know as the best hitter in the Florida State League for much of last year, coming off of two injury

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[SPEAKER_01]: Tyson Lewis really kind of popped a little bit, does look like a very intriguing kind of power speed type guy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Steel Hall, who they just drafted, very athletic.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But even going beyond that, Evan Oroyo came off of a shoulder injury that really kind of ruined his 20, 24 season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's going to be a star or anything like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But he looks like he could be a good utility infielder.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He did play all of 25.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Really good kind of context skills, just not a whole lot of power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe some more of that power comes back

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's guys you don't want to forget about who you and Aggie are.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Bist all of last year with Tommy John surgery, but you know, should be part of their big league club at some point in twenty six.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Jose Franco kind of had an emerging year after him.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Also having Tommy John surgery at one point.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would just say that the depth of the system now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: is a little bit more balanced.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's a little bit more of that mixture of bats and pitchers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It was a little bit, a little bit, a little bit, a little bit of pitcher heavy, I would say.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I would say that, again, drafties and all as well, but the graduation of burns, it's kind of, I would say that kind of ends up being pretty similar to what it was because of that you take a step forward here, you take a step back here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The guy that I think we probably should talk about the use scene for a long time that I, you know, I'm sure we're going to get questions of the long those lines is is Cam call you're also had a very injury plate season missed the first half of the year came back in better shape like really did seem to embrace the chance to kind of You know, take that time to kind of get in good shape, but at the same time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That also meant he's kind of been moving up with South Stewart just right along side each other he missed enough time South Stewart reaches the big leagues call your is a year away you know maybe reaches 26 is really a first basement the end of the day as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So from that standpoint, call yours kind of path to the big leagues might be a little tougher now because South Stewart has gotten kind of to that position first and again, maybe maybe a slim down South Stewart becomes more regularly a second baseman for the Reds in 26, I'm still inclined to think is probably going to be more at first base if it's a second base and call your complete first down the road, if it's at first, that's going to be a little bit tougher.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that is this struggle with a player like Collier.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Because in a lot of ways, he's not dissimilar from Stewart.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think Stewart's hit tool, like forget even the approach, just the pure rudimentary definition of a hit tool, the bat to ball skills for always.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe too great.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's better than what Collier is where there's swing and miss in this profile and it's swing and miss without a lot of loft in this swing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That combination does concern me a little bit because one of the things that this guy I think needs to do besides obviously make more contact is to hit the ball in the air more frequently and to hit the ball in the air to his pull side.

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[SPEAKER_00]: which is not something that he's done with any regularity, his launch angle to his pull side this year, by the way, JJ, 0.2.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It wasn't even one degree, it was 0.2 degrees.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So moreover than not, he's hitting the ball at negative launch angles or just about, maybe a little bit less than more off the knob, but negative launch angles.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And you sort of look at the barrel rate, which isn't bad.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's impact stuff isn't bad, but it's because when he does lift the ball, he hits the ball pretty hard consistently.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The power isn't a question of call here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's plus raw.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's just, do you think he can get to it in two regards?

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[SPEAKER_00]: The angles and the contact.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's good swing decisions and there's good raw power.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's limited as a defender.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's a prospect that I've had questions on for a long time, but I think it's really started to crystallize

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[SPEAKER_01]: He has stretches, watched a lot of camcorder plate appearances over the last few years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He has, he'll have stretches.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He'll have a week where everything's synced up and he's really driving the ball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like you'll have a week, you'll see four homerons and you're like, wow, is it clicking for him?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then he'll two weeks later, be rolling over everything, and it's like, oh, he's out of sync.

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[SPEAKER_01]: When his, I, I feel like the way I would put it is, it's a higher maintenance swing so far, where it's really hard for him to stay on top of it, where everything's clicking.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And when it's not, it gets really ugly, and when it's going well, it looks really good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So if you see him in the right week, you're like, wow.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is really looking good and you see them the wrong week, you're like, what is going on here?

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[SPEAKER_01]: South Stewart to just bring it back to that is a guy where you're just like, yep, just looks like this, you know, like, it's just day after day, it looks pretty consistently like, oh, this is who South Stewart is.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, all right, let's move on to the next question here as we start to wrap up the video version of this show.

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[SPEAKER_00]: South Stewart more likely than not is going to graduate this year,

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's me knocking on wood for you red stands out there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Who is your guest to be number one next to your JJ?

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think you have some interesting conversations here, because you can kind of eliminate two of the top five right from the rip.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like you said, I don't think the Stuart or louder, it would be hard for them to be number one Stuart could be like if he's like suffered a freak injury and spring training back on wood, though, he doesn't, but like where's like this isn't going to affect him long term, but he missed the whole year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: and is good enough to be the number one prospect.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's either going to be hurt, and in that case, he won't be number one, or he will gradually this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He already pitched in the big leagues in 2024.

17:52.777 --> 17:53.557
[SPEAKER_01]: So take those two out.

17:54.739 --> 17:55.860
[SPEAKER_01]: Then it gets really interesting.

17:55.920 --> 18:01.306
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I would say the logical point, choices is Alfredo Duno, who definitely will not graduate this year.

18:01.386 --> 18:04.550
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think there's any chances he's gonna graduate reach the big leagues in 2026.

18:04.951 --> 18:08.775
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a massive catcher, as we said, great plate discipline,

18:09.548 --> 18:10.310
[SPEAKER_01]: big power.

18:10.330 --> 18:28.468
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say like, there are, he is exploitable by quality pitching to an extent long leaver's big swing all that, but he knows how to do it well enough that he doesn't get exploited very often.

18:28.448 --> 18:41.005
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say that the real concern you hit on there is is every year is going to be we've seen guys like Alfredo do know it's not as big he's taller, much taller, much more physically massive.

18:41.506 --> 18:46.633
[SPEAKER_01]: But as far as like how he carries weight, this is not Alejandro Kirk right here.

18:47.094 --> 18:48.676
[SPEAKER_01]: No, and Alejandro.

18:51.439 --> 18:55.485
[SPEAKER_00]: He's an offensive right.

18:57.541 --> 19:16.754
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're trying to make a best hope scenario here, it's a Salvador Perez tight body, just this massive catcher who we've seen him basically at, he's at the size, he's got to stay at for the next cause sadly to his credit was always a big catcher and he's just kind of stayed at this level of size for like 15 years.

19:17.395 --> 19:21.642
[SPEAKER_01]: If you know, can do that, then you're talking about your problem number one.

19:22.600 --> 19:24.624
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say of the next of the other guys.

19:25.646 --> 19:29.513
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say Tyson Lewis has a better chance in steel hall.

19:30.114 --> 19:31.537
[SPEAKER_01]: Steel Hall is a safer prospect.

19:31.557 --> 19:36.406
[SPEAKER_01]: Steel Hall, I think, is a surefire shortstop, really can run really athletic.

19:36.967 --> 19:37.649
[SPEAKER_01]: You touched on it.

19:38.110 --> 19:39.312
[SPEAKER_01]: How much impact is it going to make?

19:39.352 --> 19:41.436
[SPEAKER_01]: Offensively, how strong is it going to get all that?

19:42.412 --> 19:46.020
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a big question about where Tyson Lewis will end up playing defensively.

19:46.060 --> 19:49.107
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find guys who think it'll be shortstop, not many.

19:49.147 --> 19:52.093
[SPEAKER_01]: You can definitely find people who think it'll be third base.

19:52.113 --> 19:56.583
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find probably just as many who think that this guy's going to be a really good center-fielder one day.

19:56.623 --> 19:57.906
[SPEAKER_01]: Bye!

19:58.645 --> 20:00.548
[SPEAKER_01]: There's real power.

20:00.688 --> 20:09.641
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, top of the top tier power, we saw EVs from him last year that were exceptional.

20:09.921 --> 20:11.704
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, he was hitting all his heart as anybody.

20:11.724 --> 20:13.086
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about Alfredo, no.

20:13.106 --> 20:15.810
[SPEAKER_01]: Tyson Lewis, it's just about as hard if not harder.

20:16.043 --> 20:17.524
[SPEAKER_00]: It's James Wood boom boom.

20:18.025 --> 20:19.246
[SPEAKER_01]: It's, it's wood zin.

20:19.446 --> 20:20.968
[SPEAKER_01]: It's that kind of power.

20:21.008 --> 20:23.931
[SPEAKER_01]: And the hit tools getting better.

20:24.251 --> 20:25.853
[SPEAKER_01]: Like there was a lot of questions with it.

20:26.293 --> 20:27.274
[SPEAKER_01]: There's still our questions.

20:27.294 --> 20:28.275
[SPEAKER_01]: He's an able.

20:28.295 --> 20:31.058
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's showing the ability to make improvements there.

20:31.498 --> 20:32.680
[SPEAKER_01]: That would be right now.

20:33.400 --> 20:35.322
[SPEAKER_01]: My sneaky guess of who could be number one.

20:35.462 --> 20:36.603
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say also with this.

20:37.324 --> 20:41.208
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably not going to be the first round pick because the reds credit to them.

20:41.228 --> 20:41.989
[SPEAKER_01]: They made the playoff.

20:42.049 --> 20:44.211
[SPEAKER_01]: So the reds are picking 18th.

20:44.191 --> 20:51.747
[SPEAKER_01]: In the MLB draft, and I don't think a guy they take 18th is necessarily going to jump straight to the top of their profit.

20:51.767 --> 20:59.263
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say if I'm a red fan, I would hope that he won't because that's not going to be a top on your prospect to guy they take a 18th probably.

21:00.813 --> 21:03.777
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so, you know, an interesting group.

21:03.977 --> 21:09.324
[SPEAKER_00]: But let's bring up the last question here on the podcast, video version of the podcast, part of me.

21:09.785 --> 21:14.271
[SPEAKER_00]: And that is one of the goods, what are the reds good at developing JJ?

21:16.113 --> 21:18.616
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say that you have to say if you look at recent years pitching.

21:19.257 --> 21:23.262
[SPEAKER_01]: Now they have some hitters and all too, but they produced Ellie, like, okay.

21:23.282 --> 21:23.783
[SPEAKER_01]: So,

21:24.775 --> 21:34.149
[SPEAKER_01]: that they're great at producing short stops who grow four inches after they sign while getting stronger faster and more athletic.

21:35.151 --> 21:37.955
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a hard demographic to master.

21:38.055 --> 21:39.838
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, by the way, who have twin brothers, too?

21:39.898 --> 21:40.299
[SPEAKER_01]: How about that?

21:40.839 --> 21:42.422
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty small subset.

21:42.442 --> 21:44.124
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, we've got Ellie on the wall right back there.

21:45.506 --> 21:52.437
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I mean, you know, so that's, okay, but something that's more replicable.

21:53.446 --> 21:54.809
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at their rotation, right?

21:55.309 --> 21:57.293
[SPEAKER_01]: Hunter Green, Nickel about, little, little, little.

21:57.473 --> 22:02.563
[SPEAKER_01]: Andrew Abbott, who I would say, Andrew Abbott, let's show some respect to Andrew Abbott.

22:02.583 --> 22:11.239
[SPEAKER_01]: Like that guy just year after year is really productive, really solid, and that doesn't, you know, you can go beyond that, right?

22:11.299 --> 22:15.066
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, the reds it as we record this,

22:15.468 --> 22:20.335
[SPEAKER_01]: I could map out because we also got a member of guys like Brandon Lee so they did acquire in a trade.

22:20.355 --> 22:23.820
[SPEAKER_01]: But Brandon Williams and coming back from TJ, who we're going to argue are coming back from TJ.

22:24.200 --> 22:31.150
[SPEAKER_01]: Chase Petty who they traded for when he was in Abel, but reached the majors will be in Triple A to start the year all at expect again.

22:32.011 --> 22:37.999
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a team that has 10 starting pitchers who will be in the majors.

22:38.806 --> 22:45.378
[SPEAKER_01]: or AAA, or maybe in the big league bullpen, but could swing into that role, maybe a Jose Franco in a role like that.

22:46.160 --> 22:50.368
[SPEAKER_01]: Even that same accounting, I got like Graham Ashstraff who had started for them, but now is pretty much a reliever.

22:50.668 --> 22:51.410
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not coming.

22:51.690 --> 22:58.543
[SPEAKER_01]: You could really kind of look at their bullpen and it's got a number of those guys who were starters, but Tony Stanti on type guys like who moved to the pen.

22:59.184 --> 22:59.565
[SPEAKER_01]: But,

23:01.182 --> 23:07.758
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a team that, and most of those guys, a couple of guys required in trace, but a lot of those guys are homegrown drafted, homegrown developed.

23:08.079 --> 23:13.251
[SPEAKER_01]: They've done it on the high school side, like a guy like Hunter Green, they've done it on the college side, guys like Lidolo and Abbott.

23:13.805 --> 23:16.951
[SPEAKER_01]: They've done it in a variety of different ways.

23:17.833 --> 23:32.202
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's not counting like again, like guys who like they develop Joe Boyle and then traded him and Joe Boyle has now made starts in Oakland when the back of his Oakland and now in Tampa Bay and could be in the raise rotation this year.

23:32.182 --> 23:44.820
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's really a team that has produced a significant number of starting pictures and like when we look at it even right now, we mentioned red louder, who is a guy who we expect to pitch in the big leagues for them in 2026.

23:45.181 --> 24:00.923
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Chase Petty is another one and then you go on like we mentioned a guy like Jose Franco could be a swing man for them probably going to be more in their pen, but I think could start games for them if they needed to that's something that the reds had made a clear point of emphasis.

24:01.375 --> 24:03.579
[SPEAKER_01]: They've rightfully, I think, made the argument.

24:03.699 --> 24:12.976
[SPEAKER_01]: They did acquire Brady Singer, but that not a team that's generally gonna be competing for the top free agent pitchers.

24:13.617 --> 24:17.785
[SPEAKER_01]: So if they're gonna have pitching, especially pitching gray American ballpark, they're gonna need to develop it.

24:18.326 --> 24:19.388
[SPEAKER_01]: And they've done a really good job.

24:19.408 --> 24:22.894
[SPEAKER_01]: If the funny thing about this is for all this ballpark,

24:23.600 --> 24:26.185
[SPEAKER_01]: If you said, what's the key to success for the Reds?

24:26.225 --> 24:28.610
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in 26, it's not what they get enough pitching.

24:28.630 --> 24:29.732
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they'll be fine there.

24:30.313 --> 24:34.161
[SPEAKER_01]: It's can they find some guys to really contribute to help out?

24:34.201 --> 24:36.025
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, and Ellie will be healthy.

24:36.085 --> 24:40.213
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that'll help a lot because he is power really tailed off once he got hurt last year.

24:40.253 --> 24:41.035
[SPEAKER_01]: But

24:41.015 --> 24:42.137
[SPEAKER_01]: Do they have enough bats?

24:42.678 --> 24:46.485
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it can no well be marty become an impactful player for them.

24:46.886 --> 24:48.329
[SPEAKER_01]: Can South Stewart kind of do that?

24:48.349 --> 24:49.731
[SPEAKER_01]: Can Tyler Stevenson have a better year?

24:50.112 --> 24:53.618
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to have enough offense to go with what looks like a really good pitching staff.

24:56.003 --> 25:00.391
[SPEAKER_00]: Well said, we're going to wrap up the video portion of the podcast.

25:00.451 --> 25:04.238
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if you're a podcast listener, stick around, we have more to come.

25:06.293 --> 25:13.847
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you are watching the video version and you want to hear the additional portion, you can also the show notes have a link to the podcast as well.

25:14.208 --> 25:18.376
[SPEAKER_01]: So you can check it out if you want to hear the full conversations.

25:18.416 --> 25:19.237
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked a little bit more.

25:19.257 --> 25:23.425
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're going to dive more into the reds pitching and how they've kind of gotten to here.

25:27.303 --> 25:27.964
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

25:27.984 --> 25:32.212
[SPEAKER_00]: And for a podcast listeners, let's get into that a little bit now.

25:32.713 --> 25:37.843
[SPEAKER_00]: Something we talked about offline was some of the hires that the reds had made.

25:38.404 --> 25:44.856
[SPEAKER_00]: So over the last decade, now that 2020 and 2019 are kind of far away, um,

25:45.697 --> 25:58.867
[SPEAKER_00]: Kyle Body, now with the Red Sox, I've seen famous for his work and, you know, founding of Drive Line, which I think is really driven the conversation around player development and data and a lot of stuff in our game over the last decade.

26:00.250 --> 26:01.393
[SPEAKER_00]: Talk to me a little bit about.

26:01.373 --> 26:11.186
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, what sort of infrastructure he helped put in place that has allowed them to kind of really do a good job on the pitching side of identifying in the amateur side of things.

26:11.647 --> 26:20.960
[SPEAKER_00]: Bring those guys in coming up with a development plan and sort of path that works to get these guys, you know, to the big leagues in a lot of them into the rotation.

26:23.283 --> 26:24.124
[SPEAKER_01]: So.

26:24.475 --> 26:38.390
[SPEAKER_01]: It's interesting again and I think the reds have kind of, you know, they've had a lot of turnover last couple of years, you know, but one of the things that I was say was an interesting philosophy that the reds had during the time where they produced a lot of these players, right?

26:38.410 --> 26:48.561
[SPEAKER_01]: Because again, if you rewind the clock to kind of the pandemic in 2020, I would say that all of these pictures that we're talking about that are homegrown, we're kind of in the farm system at that point.

26:48.842 --> 26:51.985
[SPEAKER_01]: Hunter Green really hadn't established himself at the big league level yet.

26:51.965 --> 26:55.471
[SPEAKER_01]: Andrew Abbott, Nicola Dollo, I think that was, you know, that was here.

26:55.491 --> 26:56.293
[SPEAKER_01]: They got drafted.

26:56.313 --> 27:02.022
[SPEAKER_01]: Then again, other guys like Joe Boyle who, you know, was moved on, even Luis May.

27:02.063 --> 27:05.749
[SPEAKER_01]: Luis May was part of that, you know, kind of that group who's kind of in their pen now.

27:07.732 --> 27:12.741
[SPEAKER_01]: There was kind of this emphasis of take stuff.

27:13.261 --> 27:15.546
[SPEAKER_01]: and let those guys kind of develop.

27:16.247 --> 27:22.661
[SPEAKER_01]: And so if you look at, like this is again, I would say that there's more than one way to approach pitching development.

27:23.623 --> 27:25.006
[SPEAKER_01]: It was pretty different.

27:25.106 --> 27:34.105
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say than some other organizations, like if you said like what the guardians were doing at that time, it was often a choir command.

27:34.439 --> 27:36.522
[SPEAKER_01]: and then develop the stuff, right?

27:36.622 --> 27:41.248
[SPEAKER_01]: So you had the shame beavers of the world where it's like, hey, this guy can really pitch.

27:42.070 --> 27:45.274
[SPEAKER_01]: If we can add three or four miles an hour, watch out.

27:45.294 --> 27:47.317
[SPEAKER_01]: And they did, a number of guys.

27:48.078 --> 27:58.933
[SPEAKER_01]: The reds approach was, if you acquire guys who have outlierish stuff, then can we get them to throw enough strikes for it to matter, right?

27:59.033 --> 28:01.797
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, in the extreme examples,

28:02.452 --> 28:09.206
[SPEAKER_01]: We still have some of these to talk about Zach Maxwell, who basically walked everyone with a Georgia Tech, but also through a hundred.

28:09.587 --> 28:17.544
[SPEAKER_01]: And when we talked about earlier about Alfredo Duno being a big human, Alfredo Duno looks at Zach Maxwell and goes, you know, feels small in comparison.

28:17.564 --> 28:19.448
[SPEAKER_01]: Zach Maxwell is 300 pounds.

28:19.629 --> 28:21.152
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's a massive human.

28:21.571 --> 28:38.213
[SPEAKER_01]: But it was also guys like Joe Boyle who Joe Boyle basically never pitched at Notre Dame because every year they would say, oh, this is the year that Boyle is going to kind of get stretched out and then he would walk a ton of guy is get pulled and then kind of get buried in the, you know, didn't really get fish.

28:38.716 --> 28:47.028
[SPEAKER_01]: And to the extreme example, the guy like Ricky Carcher, who, you know, is like, okay, he's going to strike out 40% of batters and he's going to walk 20%.

28:47.469 --> 28:52.476
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, let's see what we can do with you know, could we, could we change that 20% number?

28:53.397 --> 28:56.522
[SPEAKER_01]: And what they did was a lot of these guys, like with a boil, right?

28:57.397 --> 29:12.351
[SPEAKER_01]: When you bring in a guy like that, who has this extreme stuff, who basically, to use the rays, because I also do the rays, like this is the kind of guy that you really do, just say, we're putting the mitt in the middle of the target, and we know you'll never hit the mitt.

29:12.371 --> 29:26.644
[SPEAKER_01]: Like we're gonna have to chase it, but the hope is is miss, there's a small, you know, a small, miss, small aim, big, miss, big, with the glowing career, it was just like, just get it close to the plate.

29:27.046 --> 29:40.104
[SPEAKER_01]: But the other part with the guy like that was, you've also got to kind of let them know, this is where Pro Baseball can help guys develop in a way that it's really hard to develop in college even.

29:41.546 --> 29:44.009
[SPEAKER_01]: In college, you have a 55 game season.

29:45.751 --> 29:50.538
[SPEAKER_01]: You can install ball, be like, look, if you walk three guys, we're gonna let you pitch to the four fifth and six.

29:51.659 --> 29:53.121
[SPEAKER_01]: In games, they don't let you do that.

29:54.343 --> 29:56.766
[SPEAKER_01]: In A ball, you can do that,

29:58.417 --> 30:24.424
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think in the, I've watched the video of Boyle at the time where you can kind of see like him almost having to deprogram himself that he would walk a guy and he would look kind of like, are they coming to get me and it's like, no, they're not coming to get you now the next guy and the next five guys are yours now they're going to go let you throw, you know, a hundred pitches in this inning, but at the same time it was like, no, no, no, no, we want you to learn how to work through this.

30:25.045 --> 30:27.391
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen this, it doesn't always work.

30:27.491 --> 30:29.496
[SPEAKER_01]: Ricky Carter did reach the big leagues.

30:29.516 --> 30:35.812
[SPEAKER_01]: I think very briefly, but he's an example of guy where they never were able to get it to that control to the point where it clicked.

30:36.554 --> 30:40.624
[SPEAKER_01]: But a Joe Boyle is a guy who did, but also on top of that,

30:40.874 --> 31:05.717
[SPEAKER_01]: 100 green wasn't a guy like Joe 100 green was a guy who had 100 miles an hour in high school and had an idea of where it was going, but even if a guy like him there was significant development you remember I remember some of those listening remember.

31:06.068 --> 31:33.932
[SPEAKER_01]: I was at the futures game one year where he threw 103 and I think it came back out at like 110 because he had that challenge of, okay, it's a pretty straight fastball, it's a clean delivery, you're getting a good look at it and then to his and the reds credit, they developed his arsenal to where, you know, fastball became a little less hitable, but more than that, they developed the arsenal around it to where you couldn't just sit fastball.

31:34.992 --> 31:40.799
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, it's not, it's a tight, it's a little bit of an organization that also did a good job in developing kind of all types.

31:41.940 --> 31:48.909
[SPEAKER_01]: What I just described about Joe Boyle and Hunter Green and Ricky Carter and Zach Maxwell and Luis May.

31:50.090 --> 31:52.913
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked to our little earlier about Andrew Abbott being really good.

31:53.834 --> 32:04.527
[SPEAKER_00]: Do any of those descriptions seem to fit to you Jeff about Andrew Abbott?

32:06.059 --> 32:13.289
[SPEAKER_00]: not like average-ish velocity because he is a lefty so I would say it's probably more average-ish.

32:14.491 --> 32:22.782
[SPEAKER_00]: But a guy that really knows how to pitch and execute and there's deception, there's location, and I think this is hard to truly quantify.

32:22.802 --> 32:27.608
[SPEAKER_00]: There's some tonaling aspects of what he does that really work.

32:28.369 --> 32:30.953
[SPEAKER_00]: And despite not having this really big stuff,

32:31.355 --> 32:41.772
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, the sort of strikeout foundation, he has been able to miss that and be really successful and as we talk about in the top of the show, it's how to do it.

32:42.053 --> 32:44.978
[SPEAKER_00]: But really difficult place to pitch, but a great place to hit.

32:46.500 --> 32:52.330
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, outside of Colorado, this is probably one of the more unforgiving fields in the game.

32:52.370 --> 32:53.532
[SPEAKER_00]: There's different.

32:53.512 --> 32:55.296
[SPEAKER_00]: elements that are played each.

32:56.980 --> 33:03.155
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I think, in a lot of ways, he is what we hope Rhett louder can become.

33:03.917 --> 33:05.541
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, absolutely.

33:05.561 --> 33:08.930
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, that pitchability guy that maybe gets a little bit more swing and miss than you anticipated.

33:08.970 --> 33:10.373
[SPEAKER_00]: Um,

33:10.522 --> 33:21.878
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, it can go deep into games and I mean, he was a really, really valuable starter full stop this year, regardless of reds and all sorts of stuff, he would be valuable in anybody's rotation at this point.

33:21.898 --> 33:32.412
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think I think that's I think that's a really interesting sort of component of Abbott, but I also want to move it along to some of these guys kind of in the same vein.

33:33.117 --> 33:37.263
[SPEAKER_00]: like a boil that were these big stuff guys more in the relief side.

33:37.864 --> 33:41.249
[SPEAKER_00]: They've had some success with those sort of guys as well.

33:42.090 --> 33:45.215
[SPEAKER_00]: Zach Maxwell being one another that I think has since graduated.

33:45.235 --> 33:46.837
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got to check Connor Phillips.

33:47.999 --> 33:50.423
[SPEAKER_00]: There are some of these big stuff guys that they still have got.

33:52.386 --> 33:55.130
[SPEAKER_01]: If I could interject on that, that's another perfect example of this, right?

33:55.170 --> 33:57.353
[SPEAKER_01]: So they have Connor Phillips is a guy who

33:58.109 --> 34:04.248
[SPEAKER_01]: was up for them in 24 and when I 23 actually I think it was.

34:05.210 --> 34:12.051
[SPEAKER_01]: And when I say he lost the strike zone like his last outing of that year in the big leagues.

34:12.352 --> 34:16.797
[SPEAKER_01]: was one you want to forget, like one you as hard to watch because you just could adopt those strikes.

34:17.337 --> 34:18.058
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't remember.

34:18.078 --> 34:19.439
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, again, I'm off top my head.

34:19.519 --> 34:20.400
[SPEAKER_01]: The memory serves.

34:20.420 --> 34:21.061
[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't get it now.

34:21.922 --> 34:27.527
[SPEAKER_01]: And then he spent a year really just trying to find it.

34:27.908 --> 34:31.772
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, we're talking down to the complex level.

34:32.252 --> 34:38.038
[SPEAKER_01]: We're talking is this guy ever going to be able to be a big league pitcher again.

34:38.761 --> 34:50.977
[SPEAKER_01]: and to his credit and the reds credit, the answer is yes, and now you saw him pitching in the postseason for them at the end of 25, which was a pretty remarkable development.

34:51.758 --> 35:00.550
[SPEAKER_01]: And another example of a guy who had always had stuff, and the question was, would he be able to harness it enough to be an effective pitcher?

35:01.120 --> 35:05.728
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of like which fits if you are producing the abits and all of the world.

35:06.248 --> 35:08.652
[SPEAKER_01]: The great thing is is the fallback option on this is.

35:09.213 --> 35:10.575
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good way to build a bullpen.

35:10.595 --> 35:13.981
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you got Tony Sandyons another guy who's kind of been a useful bullpen.

35:14.802 --> 35:22.555
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about Luis May is another one who I mean Luis May throws one or three rolling on a bed at this point.

35:22.535 --> 35:27.761
[SPEAKER_01]: You have that, and then the guy I wanted to kind of talk to, we should probably talk a little bit about, because I don't want to ignore him.

35:28.162 --> 35:34.910
[SPEAKER_01]: He's on that just his graduated, but also isn't like a fully established big-leaker.

35:35.311 --> 35:37.273
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about Chase Burns a little bit earlier.

35:38.314 --> 35:51.310
[SPEAKER_01]: Face Burns, I mean, I think I'm going to be very interested to see kind of how he fits in the plans for 26, and I say how he fits into the plans,

35:52.100 --> 36:08.484
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, right now, I would say as we stand we're like green, Abbott, Lidolo, Brady Singer, who they acquired, who I could see being traded because he's late in his, not too far away from free agency, getting a little expensive, but at the same time, really good.

36:08.965 --> 36:13.491
[SPEAKER_01]: If they do, it would be because out to me it would be because you're getting a really good bat, maybe in return or something.

36:13.952 --> 36:18.158
[SPEAKER_01]: But then you throw in burns who I expect to be in a rotation.

36:18.695 --> 36:21.439
[SPEAKER_01]: I had reds, we did our reds chat for the top 10.

36:21.699 --> 36:26.486
[SPEAKER_01]: People saying what went wrong with Chase Burns is like nothing, I mean, nothing.

36:26.586 --> 36:27.547
[SPEAKER_01]: I know we got hurt.

36:27.808 --> 36:31.433
[SPEAKER_01]: I know we had a blood, not a major hurt, but he missed a little time.

36:32.314 --> 36:37.902
[SPEAKER_01]: Then he came back from it and like if you watched in the post season, now admittedly,

36:37.932 --> 36:42.418
[SPEAKER_01]: The Reds, you can watch the entirety of the Reds post season for 2025.

36:42.438 --> 36:44.421
[SPEAKER_01]: It won't take you long.

36:44.641 --> 36:48.246
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a highward here, oh, we're facing the Dodgers.

36:48.767 --> 36:49.588
[SPEAKER_01]: It was good to see you.

36:49.848 --> 36:51.551
[SPEAKER_01]: Audios, you could luck Dodgers.

36:51.711 --> 36:52.972
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, they're going to go in and off.

36:53.713 --> 36:59.802
[SPEAKER_01]: But Chase Burns was the guy who I came into there for the Reds, who was like, that's the guy they don't want to face.

37:00.242 --> 37:02.185
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the guy who you're like, oh,

37:02.620 --> 37:06.765
[SPEAKER_01]: this thing's going to be pretty fun for the reds and there aren't there weren't a ton of those fun innings.

37:07.486 --> 37:11.892
[SPEAKER_01]: I look at him and say, you know, you've been working on our fantasy stuff into the offices and all that.

37:13.173 --> 37:19.401
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is the guy that like really could be a difference maker for Cincinnati in 2026.

37:20.423 --> 37:20.963
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.

37:21.003 --> 37:26.350
[SPEAKER_00]: It's too bad this isn't the the video portion of the podcast because the age Simpson

37:26.414 --> 37:31.466
[SPEAKER_00]: gift of him walking in and then walking out repeatedly would have been perfect right for that moment.

37:33.371 --> 37:38.483
[SPEAKER_00]: JJ, I wanted to go through a couple more players here kind of in the back end.

37:38.885 --> 38:07.980
[SPEAKER_00]: Players that we just talked about, do you feel mason Morris, you know, draft pick from 2025, does he sort of fit into that profile of those, those big stuff college relievers that the reds have had some success and sort of coaxing out of, because that, that is a profile that I think every year at draft time, people like, oh, this guy could move really fast and then more often than not, a lot of those fast moving college relievers,

38:08.062 --> 38:16.814
[SPEAKER_00]: don't move so fast or more from the knot, I think we may have success stories that those guys are better starters than they were relievers.

38:16.894 --> 38:27.910
[SPEAKER_00]: So what sort of the pathway for Morris next year, DC him kind of following in the same footsteps as Maxwell and Philips and some of these other guys.

38:29.594 --> 38:32.920
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's the starter and then we'll see if he can start now.

38:33.000 --> 38:35.083
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a kind of an interesting profile that way.

38:35.123 --> 38:39.891
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think he obviously would move faster is reliever, but I think there are starter traits there.

38:40.172 --> 38:44.419
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, this is when we say like what are the reds good on the pitching side, we should also throw in.

38:44.459 --> 38:51.130
[SPEAKER_01]: If you want to acknowledge like, it's not all puppies and rainbows.

38:52.291 --> 39:05.906
[SPEAKER_01]: The reds also have really like, they're going back to a well that has really been a poisonous well for them, which is the SEC pitcher who they take early.

39:07.568 --> 39:09.631
[SPEAKER_01]: Wake Forest Pictures, that's worked out pretty well.

39:09.671 --> 39:16.999
[SPEAKER_01]: Chase Burns moved fast, rent louder moved fast.

39:17.182 --> 39:41.198
[SPEAKER_01]: That's three guys in recent years who they've taken pretty early in dress from SEC programs who showed real stuff in college and then got to pro ball and it's pretty much like they have gotten, they know that good year facility better than anyone wants to because that's where the reds, you know, like if you're rehabbing your in Arizona, they're good year facility usually and

39:42.562 --> 39:43.604
[SPEAKER_01]: They haven't really pitched.

39:44.024 --> 39:55.443
[SPEAKER_01]: And in the case of those three that I mentioned, like they're not expected to be ready for opening day 2026, obviously Morris is healthy right now.

39:55.544 --> 40:05.380
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's where they have struggled with is they've devoted significant draft resources in recent years to kind of that.

40:05.596 --> 40:06.777
[SPEAKER_01]: There's not their first pick.

40:06.817 --> 40:10.181
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of that second or third or fourth pick that they take.

40:10.661 --> 40:15.767
[SPEAKER_01]: But a guy with a prominent pick, a top hundred pick usually, who's then really struggled to stay healthy.

40:16.328 --> 40:19.891
[SPEAKER_01]: But Morris kind of fits into that where it's like, I would say that you expect him to start.

40:20.893 --> 40:27.440
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you say, OK, is he going to end up as a starter?

40:27.460 --> 40:33.426
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think that may also be a little bit kind of dependent on state of the team, right?

40:34.435 --> 40:39.364
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think that that could play a role in that by the time he's ready.

40:39.705 --> 40:52.309
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, if the rotation still looks like it looks like right now, like, hey, look at what Tony Santiago did, you know, and look at what Connor Phillips did and some of these guys, but I do think there are starter traits there.

40:52.289 --> 40:54.813
[SPEAKER_01]: if it all kind of clicks.

40:54.914 --> 41:14.668
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, the first thing, if you're a red fan, the first thing you want to see is Mason Morse healthy on a in a rotation opening day, 2026, and more importantly to that, because they have had a couple of these guys who did that, and then come May 1st, he's still pitching in a rotation.

41:15.543 --> 41:26.918
[SPEAKER_01]: By the way, along those lines, one other guy that we're talking about probably in Los Angeles is Shane is Shane and Lee, who, you know, who, Shane and Lin was a two-way guy when they got him.

41:28.119 --> 41:34.968
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of went out as a position player first and then pitched in instructs and then they flipped it this last year.

41:35.709 --> 41:37.271
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's kind of interesting.

41:37.532 --> 41:40.596
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's another guy who really kind of stands out as kind of keep an eye on guy.

41:40.896 --> 41:44.841
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there's a lot more over on him at baseballamerican.com.

41:45.344 --> 41:56.397
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the question is going to be, like, he's a weird guy from a standpoint of like, the upper velocity ranges that we have heard at his best is like, you hear sixes and sevens.

41:57.659 --> 42:03.106
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you, or there are, then he was having success in starts in 25 at times.

42:03.506 --> 42:09.874
[SPEAKER_01]: Admittedly still adjusting to kind of his new pitching regimen, but you were hearing ones and twos.

42:10.795 --> 42:14.980
[SPEAKER_01]: And as good as he was in 25,

42:15.601 --> 42:20.346
[SPEAKER_01]: You wanna hear more about the fours five, sixes and sevens than you do, you know, sitting 91, 92.

42:20.446 --> 42:28.775
[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll get into a couple of sleepers in a minute, but I wanna ask you the most important question to this podcast, JJ.

42:30.297 --> 42:38.505
[SPEAKER_00]: Connor Burns is the only player I know of in the handbook, at least as long as I've been here who has a 20-hit tool.

42:39.326 --> 42:41.689
[SPEAKER_00]: Is the defense really that good, JJ?

42:43.210 --> 42:44.832
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm setting up, this is like a lot, right?

42:46.094 --> 42:48.518
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this is, this is like, and yes, okay.

42:48.779 --> 42:49.821
[SPEAKER_00]: The crisp all up.

42:49.941 --> 42:51.043
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is nothing.

42:51.704 --> 42:57.935
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's just give you a little bit, let give you all listeners a little insight to the geekiness that is based fall of America.

42:58.977 --> 43:04.407
[SPEAKER_01]: I love posting a cut-up like just into Slack channel of like, hey, check this out or whatever.

43:05.433 --> 43:18.531
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you want to say like the probably the geekiest of that is like, hey, check out this and it was Connor Burns catching a hundred miles an hour just below the zone.

43:19.844 --> 43:47.978
[SPEAKER_01]: And you remember it like you remember the video it's like the best way I can describe it is he's catching that he's bringing it into the zone and it looks like if I'm catching like my, you know, like a elementary school kid right like to say that velocity does not freak him out, you know, he has soft hands like this is like, I almost look like the gave me a mitt so I use it, but I could have just caught it with my bare hand if you needed to.

43:47.958 --> 44:03.925
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it's that level of the first year after he was drafted, he goes to spring training because catchers, by the way, when you see little minor minor thing, but when you see this catcher was invited to spring trainings, like, oh, must be a great prospect winner.

44:04.394 --> 44:10.422
[SPEAKER_01]: in every organization, the thing you need more than anything else in spring training is enough catchers to catch everybody.

44:10.762 --> 44:15.108
[SPEAKER_01]: So, he gets sent to spring training for the big league club to kind of help catch guys.

44:15.788 --> 44:26.742
[SPEAKER_01]: And often, there's kind of like a hierarchy that, right, the big league catchers catch the big league guys, the best veteran backups and all AAA catchers and all that catch the next and all that.

44:28.264 --> 44:31.989
[SPEAKER_01]: But in Burns case, he was catching big league or they wanted to throw to him.

44:32.049 --> 44:33.591
[SPEAKER_01]: That's how he's going to use defensively.

44:34.313 --> 44:44.469
[SPEAKER_01]: At the same time, I mean, offensively, this is the most the duality of man as we will ever see.

44:44.509 --> 44:47.534
[SPEAKER_01]: It is like he is so good defensively.

44:48.676 --> 44:53.844
[SPEAKER_01]: And there is, at least so far, nothing they're offensively.

44:54.605 --> 44:55.326
[SPEAKER_01]: It's

44:55.508 --> 45:25.127
[SPEAKER_01]: no bit of hitting for average, no getting on base, no power, no bat speed, he's physical like he had that that was kind of this track record in college and then he had this great draft year where he hit he'd been like a 180 hitter in college and then he'd draft year he had 300 with some power and you're like hey look at this great defender and now he hit and it's like nope nope nope nope nope I'm still just the glove who he's got to stick around

45:25.107 --> 45:36.552
[SPEAKER_01]: because he's so good defensively, and your hope is, is that by sheer force of repetition, if a guy gets 2,000, 2,500, minor league play appearances,

45:37.088 --> 45:44.235
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe someday he gets to a point where he hits enough to be able to hit enough to be a backup catcher.

45:44.555 --> 45:46.337
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the question of what Connever is.

45:46.357 --> 45:47.558
[SPEAKER_00]: Austin, Austin hedges.

45:47.578 --> 45:53.484
[SPEAKER_00]: You just, you got to get to the Austin hedges line of offensive production because I think the glove is kind of there.

45:53.884 --> 45:54.625
[SPEAKER_00]: Could be one guy.

45:54.705 --> 46:05.155
[SPEAKER_00]: Could be three already mentioned, Lynn, who are some sleepers in this system, after rank 11,

46:07.868 --> 46:14.257
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so let's go a little deeper than, you know, we're not going to go top of the system or anything like that.

46:15.378 --> 46:16.299
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll go up a couple.

46:16.499 --> 46:22.047
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to start with kind of really off the wall is this is a guy who.

46:23.389 --> 46:27.234
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, all outcomes are still there for this guy, right?

46:27.314 --> 46:29.337
[SPEAKER_01]: Like this is a sleeper sleeper.

46:29.357 --> 46:31.159
[SPEAKER_01]: I put him in the 30, but.

46:31.882 --> 46:36.328
[SPEAKER_01]: Trevor Cunkel, and I hope I'm pronouncing his last name, but it's a reliever who was in double-a for them.

46:37.169 --> 46:39.212
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is an indie ball-fine, right?

46:39.272 --> 46:52.570
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the guy who, the way I would put it, one of the things I find interesting now, and again, I wanna get your thoughts on this, especially in the era of 165 player rosters.

46:54.573 --> 47:01.602
[SPEAKER_01]: The dividing line between, like when everyone, you hear people say there's no pitching, there's no pitching, there's not enough pitching,

47:02.645 --> 47:09.112
[SPEAKER_01]: When it comes to what I would describe as the triple A reliever level, right?

47:09.192 --> 47:11.743
[SPEAKER_01]: The guy who doesn't have

47:11.943 --> 47:38.608
[SPEAKER_01]: either the secondary pitch or the fastball or the control is missing one little element to be like a sticks in the big leagues reliever, but he has either the velocity or this great secondary pitch or kind of one of the other and control to be a triple like I who gets the call for like when in emergencies, if you have that guy, there's a lot of those guys.

47:39.179 --> 47:43.064
[SPEAKER_01]: There's, I feel like there's more of those guys now than there may have ever been.

47:43.104 --> 47:55.038
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's almost so many of those guys that like the separation even between pitches in the big leagues and struggling to get a big, a affiliated job is a fine line.

47:57.321 --> 47:59.504
[SPEAKER_01]: Conkel is one of those guys who was that, right?

47:59.584 --> 48:05.271
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he was an indie ball guy who was really successful at that level, really good.

48:05.504 --> 48:09.372
[SPEAKER_01]: partner leagues, I should say, but partner leagues independent leagues, an unafiliated player.

48:10.474 --> 48:17.347
[SPEAKER_01]: And so kind of got like a little bit of a sign then got released and spring training.

48:17.648 --> 48:20.414
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the red sign them and kind of let him go in AA.

48:21.035 --> 48:22.658
[SPEAKER_01]: And he was really good for them.

48:22.758 --> 48:27.748
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, as profiles go, AA closer,

48:28.336 --> 48:32.465
[SPEAKER_01]: is not like that's not the pathway to future success.

48:32.906 --> 48:35.772
[SPEAKER_01]: Just go look those, you know, like lead to miners and saves.

48:36.273 --> 48:44.691
[SPEAKER_01]: Leading the miners and saves is not a great stat usually because the guys who are big league relievers don't often get a chance to they usually don't.

48:45.380 --> 48:47.745
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not pitching the ninth in the minors.

48:47.845 --> 48:54.197
[SPEAKER_01]: They're usually starting or if they're not starting, they're on kind of a regimen because they're the guy who's going to get called up.

48:54.217 --> 48:56.201
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's a guy to watch because the stuff's real.

48:56.241 --> 48:58.425
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff's not like it's legit.

48:59.407 --> 49:05.599
[SPEAKER_01]: And he could very well go from being a guy who was,

49:06.929 --> 49:11.696
[SPEAKER_01]: knocking on doors, trying to find an affiliate a job to a guy who gets a big league call up.

49:11.716 --> 49:12.957
[SPEAKER_01]: That would not shock me at all.

49:13.358 --> 49:33.426
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of an interesting name, you know, kind of at the, you know, further down on this, the other guy that I would say that's kind of a little bit more of a conventional sleeper is Eli Pitt, who was a fifth round pick out of Norfolk,

49:34.182 --> 49:36.845
[SPEAKER_00]: I loved it, so I was like, please say you like this.

49:38.347 --> 49:56.190
[SPEAKER_01]: Pitz was injured in his draft year, which kind of meant you didn't get to see the full Eli Pitz as much, 70 runner, 70 grade runner at his best, like really athletic, impactful speed, but there's some hitting ability here too, some athleticism.

49:57.149 --> 50:06.482
[SPEAKER_01]: And you could say like that because of kind of like again, a little bit of a disrupted draft year, maybe it's a kind of a little bit of a sleeper find.

50:07.062 --> 50:08.785
[SPEAKER_01]: There's risk here, no doubt about it.

50:08.825 --> 50:16.575
[SPEAKER_01]: There's risk like you're getting, you're evaluating God based who really didn't get to show you at him at his best in his draft year.

50:16.910 --> 50:23.039
[SPEAKER_01]: But if it all clicks, absolutely is this a guy who could be an impactful regular, not just you.

50:23.059 --> 50:29.949
[SPEAKER_01]: Normally, you take a guy on the fifth round and if he could be a useful up and down player or role player, you'd be pretty happy.

50:30.470 --> 50:34.416
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy who has every day regular in the outfield potential.

50:35.217 --> 50:39.323
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's a guy who I would absolutely, I'm gonna be very fascinated.

50:39.303 --> 50:48.991
[SPEAKER_01]: to kind of see how it develops for him in, you know, in 2026 because we there's still a lot to be discovered, but at the same time, really interesting a lot of ways.

50:49.011 --> 50:53.464
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a top five athletic

50:53.663 --> 51:00.413
[SPEAKER_00]: Tim Daxkillby, Landon Vadoric, for instance, and Attie drafted by the Dodgers Jake Cook.

51:02.136 --> 51:05.281
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's, that's Brandon Compton, I think it was right around there too.

51:05.501 --> 51:10.489
[SPEAKER_00]: So, like one of the top, I'd say probably three or four athletes in the 2025 class.

51:10.569 --> 51:15.216
[SPEAKER_00]: So, really interesting player, you also get steel haul in this, it's same draft.

51:16.040 --> 51:18.523
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the reds are targeting some athletes JJ.

51:18.543 --> 51:21.467
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll be interesting to see how those guys all pan out.

51:21.908 --> 51:27.235
[SPEAKER_00]: Any more sleepers or are we sort of wrapping up the first prospect deep dive?

51:27.255 --> 51:28.717
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we can kind of wrap it up.

51:29.038 --> 51:31.261
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we can kind of wrap it up.

51:31.281 --> 51:33.604
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say like the kind of just wrap it up.

51:33.644 --> 51:44.359
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say like, I do feel like that the reds will see what this year goes, but making the playoffs did feel like a good

51:46.178 --> 51:47.561
[SPEAKER_01]: I wrote about this in the overview.

51:47.861 --> 51:49.825
[SPEAKER_01]: If you've got your prospect handbook, you've already read this.

51:49.865 --> 51:52.130
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll give you a very short summation of progress.

51:52.831 --> 51:58.904
[SPEAKER_01]: The reds are a team that if it all goes right this year, could really have a very good season.

51:59.545 --> 52:03.072
[SPEAKER_01]: The thing that's frightening, I think, for them is we've seen this the last two years.

52:03.974 --> 52:07.140
[SPEAKER_01]: Their margin of error is quite small, right?

52:08.690 --> 52:10.955
[SPEAKER_01]: two years ago, Matt McLean gets hurt.

52:11.236 --> 52:16.067
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, Matt McLean is not like, this is not, oh, we lost showy Otani.

52:16.087 --> 52:17.871
[SPEAKER_01]: But Matt McLean was a solid regular for them.

52:18.211 --> 52:20.096
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets hurt, loses the whole year.

52:20.677 --> 52:25.247
[SPEAKER_01]: And they didn't ever seem to really figure out a way to fill that spot.

52:25.227 --> 52:33.801
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, last year, they did manage to survive, but Ellie Taylor Cruz was not himself second half to season with an, you know, like lower half injury.

52:34.462 --> 52:35.804
[SPEAKER_01]: And, uh, tell me, I'm like, lucky there.

52:35.924 --> 52:37.567
[SPEAKER_01]: A lower half body injury.

52:37.908 --> 52:43.096
[SPEAKER_01]: But if I, I don't want to risk quoted, I think it was hamstring, but it may have been tied with something lower, a leg injury.

52:43.837 --> 52:47.784
[SPEAKER_01]: And, uh, and they kind of survived it.

52:47.804 --> 52:50.408
[SPEAKER_01]: They still made the playoffs, but like, they don't have,

52:51.552 --> 52:53.094
[SPEAKER_01]: a whole lot of margin for error.

52:53.134 --> 52:57.398
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, if everything goes right, I feel like this is an 85 to 90 win team.

52:57.999 --> 53:01.262
[SPEAKER_01]: If everything goes wrong, it's a 75 to 80 win team.

53:01.823 --> 53:06.027
[SPEAKER_01]: And if everything kind of just goes normally that an 80 to 85 win team last year, that got it in the playoffs.

53:07.389 --> 53:18.420
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if there's like a 92, 93 win gear in here with this club, but maybe if Chase Burns kind of develops into an impactful starter,

53:18.586 --> 53:44.813
[SPEAKER_01]: to go with what we already talked about, like you could have, I mean, it's not crazy to think that if he really takes a step further this year, we also, we're now talking about Rhett Lauder, who can't fit in the rotation right now, but a hundred green, Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott, Nicoladolo, Brady singer rotation, that could be one of the best rotations in the national league.

53:45.147 --> 53:46.269
[SPEAKER_01]: Best line-ups, though.

53:47.110 --> 53:49.633
[SPEAKER_01]: Best bullpence could be a good bullpen, but not one of the best bullpence, no.

53:50.354 --> 53:52.457
[SPEAKER_01]: But rotations are important.

53:52.537 --> 53:54.200
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, we talked about it earlier on this.

53:54.500 --> 54:04.314
[SPEAKER_01]: The key thing of that is is, and if you said, hey, okay, but you know that they're not gonna make every start all season, and I'll go absolutely, they're not gonna make every start all season.

54:05.055 --> 54:08.680
[SPEAKER_01]: But then when you throw in that you, we talk about like a Brandon Williamson.

54:08.700 --> 54:10.102
[SPEAKER_01]: We talk about a Julien Aguer.

54:10.163 --> 54:11.424
[SPEAKER_01]: We talk about Rhett louder.

54:11.524 --> 54:14.749
[SPEAKER_01]: We talk about Chase Petty.

54:15.758 --> 54:28.295
[SPEAKER_01]: That's another five guys who most of which will be probably, you know, AAA kind of ready to knocking on the door as injuries arise.

54:28.355 --> 54:31.158
[SPEAKER_01]: They do have other guys who can step in and make starts.

54:31.359 --> 54:35.304
[SPEAKER_01]: And that to me does make them a pretty sprightly team.

54:35.444 --> 54:41.412
[SPEAKER_01]: A pretty interesting team as we kind of get, you know, get ready for the 2020 season to begin.

54:42.303 --> 54:42.965
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that is the Cincinnati Reds top 30 deep dive.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's been the prospect podcast on baseball America Jeff Ponds.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's JJ Cooper.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for tuning in.