[SPEAKER_00]: Hello, welcome back to another baseball America fantasy podcast is your host Jeff Ponce alongside me as always is my co-host the master of the robot scout.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's getting the robot kicking again.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's coming back in 2026.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's Dylan White.

[SPEAKER_00]: What's going on, man?

[SPEAKER_00]: How are you?

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm doing well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm doing a building some data centers for to house all the robot scout CPUs or whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was going to use it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: want to physics.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm doing well.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a Blizzard here in Toronto, I'm not a Blizzard, but there's like 12 inches of snow came out of nowhere overnight, and a bit of a bit nuts over here.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm just cozy in my office here, podcast and a boat baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there you go up there and and Canada and join the snow.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you showed me that picture and I was like, it's actually been unseasonably warm here for the last couple of days.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's been like 40, 50 degrees, which is down right Bommie with the type of December and early January we had here in Massachusetts.

[SPEAKER_00]: So

[SPEAKER_00]: But you know what people aren't here to hear us talk about the weather, we're talking about first year player drafts today on the show and our rankings that recently came out in the site last week.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is kind of my baby doing.

[SPEAKER_00]: I love doing the first year player draft rankings.

[SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, it's just a fun process to kind of sort through them and, you know, we do one ranking after the draft kind of update a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then after the handbook season is over and I've, you know, proofread a million chapters and read the, you know, read the thing from front to back and all that kind of sit down and start to go through my rankings.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I'm going to kind of put Dylan.

[SPEAKER_00]: in the host seat a little bit today.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Dylan, before we jump into the FYPD rankings, this might be old hat by the time this thing publishes tomorrow morning.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what about these Stevie Cohen, Kyle Tucker ambiguous tweets kind of kind of fun.

[SPEAKER_00]: Seems like he's hinting at the signing could be coming.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's talking like he's in the the papal conclave.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I took, he sets on the boat as their smoke.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you see smoke?

[SPEAKER_01]: I took that as, oh, okay, great.

[SPEAKER_01]: That he took her as chosen the meds, Kyle Tucker's chosen the meds, and it's just a matter of like announcing that it's official.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then he followed up by saying, oh, you know, I'm referring to like the decision has been made.

[SPEAKER_01]: So then I was thinking,

[SPEAKER_01]: he's kind of like the balls and Tucker's court.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like let's see if his highness makes the decision.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that gave me a bit more optimism as a Jay's fan.

[SPEAKER_01]: At first I was like, all right, it gets the Jay's around and then now, oh, maybe maybe they're still in.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I mean, it would be great to sign the Kyle Tucker.

[SPEAKER_01]: I, you know, there's rumors, it's the Jay's metstagers.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jay's offered a long-term deal.

[SPEAKER_01]: Met's offered a lot more money per season, but maybe not as long.

[SPEAKER_01]: maybe opt-outs, maybe shorter, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, who knows how this soap opera's gonna end?

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's still Boba Shatt too.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I don't know if the Jay's will pivot to, like, Boba Shatt, or Boba Shatt's waiting for the Tucker signing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm hearing Red Sox like our all over Boba Shatt, I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, it's the two kind of major chips, not counting Cody Bellinger, kind of remaining.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I guess there's forever as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there's some.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's a community of the elite,

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to impact fantasy seasons.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just made a trade.

[SPEAKER_00]: I needed a third basement badly in my third, in my 30 team league.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I traded, I don't love it, but I did trade Adley Rushman, and then I traded Kodai Sango.

[SPEAKER_00]: and I got back Matt Chapman and Lucas Gielito, which I think all things considered is kind of an even trade, but I like the security of Gielito a little bit better, which I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm like knocking on large pieces of wood, as I say that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it just, it feels like there's a chance that Seng is not in the rotation or something is really broken.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's also, I think, a couple years older than Gielito.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then Chapman, like, you know, fine, it's probably the same production to slightly better than I would get from Adley Rushman, but I'll just have to find a catcher, which is honestly is a lot easier than finding a decent third based 90s days.

[SPEAKER_00]: That was that was that's not that's not an easy task, because you're either shopping at the top of the market or a lot of players that you're like, this is kind of replacement level.

[SPEAKER_00]: So ended up with Matt Chapman for a couple of years.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see how that goes.

[SPEAKER_01]: Very good.

[SPEAKER_01]: We made a trade in the devil's rejects.

[SPEAKER_01]: I say, we, but it's really Brian.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I watch it.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're on from the sidelines.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was basically a patent totally for Luis Payne.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, those are the key guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, a lot of people have told me higher, a lot of people have paying a higher, paying is kind of we got paying you, um, traded totally.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, paying yeah, you know, struggled a bit when he got his whiteness high high, I guess.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so he kind of thought he was like top 10, top 5 and then he kind of went down and now, you know, oh, maybe he's not as good as we thought of the defenses and it's good.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll kind of, the warts are showing and so, you know, we thought maybe that's a

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think what happened with him is people got so caught up in, there was like this, there was maybe this is my head, but there was like this level of almost like, trying to prove that the Hazard's Mod A hype was like,

[SPEAKER_00]: Jason Dominguez, 2.0 or something like that and not necessarily rooted in actual game performance and data, and I think there were a lot of people and like, oh, I think paying is better than mod eight camp.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and I think that really drove the bus kind of early on, Pena, and he's a really good player.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was a really good hitter, you know, it's just probably not like a no doubt short stop and like super twitchy, but it's got great instincts,

[SPEAKER_00]: great back to ballability.

[SPEAKER_00]: The angles are pretty good.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's some impact there.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think the approach needs to mature a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that was kind of always lurking out of the hood.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I would not, I think he's more adjusted into a place where like it's appropriate now and a lot of rankings.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would still have him hire and like a fantasy list than I would have him on our real-life top 100, which we finished working on this week so that would be out soon.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like I still think he's a great fantasy prospect and and would be happy to roster them on any of my teams doing so that's that's me saying I'm not knocking we paint yet all I think just sometimes you know, especially when you're talking like a guy goes from like unranked like on the list like top.

[SPEAKER_00]: 15 to 20 like sometimes a guy can drop 20 spots and like kind of settle into a nice spot in the rankings, but people were almost like disappointed because there was that like over reaction period and then kind of had to adjust right.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's just like anything, you know, it's like, it's like, it's like, way, it's got a settlement, it was going to have like dip in a peak and then, you know, kind of settle in the middle.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, all right, Dylan, did you want to mention anything on the Ranger Suarez signing with the Red Sox?

[SPEAKER_00]: What do you think about that location and landing spot?

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I get it.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's been a great performer.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, obviously drives a ton of ground balls, gets enough strikeouts, there's enough command.

[SPEAKER_00]: As pitched well in big moments and the red socks obviously are looking for as much pitching depth as they can possibly have under contract available to them in their 40-man roster.

[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, this is a guy that sits like 90 miles an hour and, you know, it's a deal that he's going to be, you know, into his 30s by the time it's done.

[SPEAKER_00]: So how do you think this deal is going to look and, um, is it a good landing spot?

[SPEAKER_00]: How do you feel about that from a fantasy perspective?

[SPEAKER_01]: So we, we had sent out the totally offer for paying yet, and then the Solaris thing happened.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, oh no, he's going to back off and reject and are put with draw the offer, whatever, because that, you know, part of Toli's appeal is he may be in the rotation.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's more of a long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's not, you know, picking, getting Toli for 26, but, so that was, that was interesting when that happened.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the team is good, so like you're going to get wins, but like he's a lefty in Fenway, so at the green monster, he can face a lot of ready batters, not great.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he has a pretty high ground ball rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like in the top 25% I think if I remember right, so I mean, that's good.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, he's he's a bit older.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I was surprised, like I thought he went for kind of more than

[SPEAKER_01]: He was going to get and then especially for the red sox, I just like you said like they have so many options now in their in the rotation for the next few years that it's weird to spend you know that kind of money on someone who's I think he's 30 now right so you'll be like 35 with it and so.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, pictures, a lot slower their aging curves are not as defined as as for hitters where you know 27 and then becomes come down like pictures kind of stay up there 29 and 32 even for a while.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you know, maybe not that bad, but yeah, I don't think it's great for them, but I don't think it's bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's kind of neutral like the winds will balance off sort of the ratio as I think.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I think maybe it was more of an overpay on the Red Sox side that he's a great pitcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to do well and he's going to help their team, obviously, but, uh, you know, there's a lot of money invested for sort of a short track record until lefty in Fenway.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, um, you know what, let's move on to the next signing, not signing with the Red Sox.

[SPEAKER_00]: Alex Fregman going to the Cubs.

[SPEAKER_00]: Where do your thoughts on Fregman for 2026 and then just,

[SPEAKER_00]: the next three-year window as we usually talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: So 26 through 28.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then his impact, his signing of his, the impact of his signing, excuse me, on Matt Shaw's potential value, and then Nico Horner's value if he's not traded or if he potentially is.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're like a Matt Shaw or a Nico Horner owner, I guess is what a mask he put yourself in their shoes and kind of how would you handle those situations?

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, I, I feel a lot better.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nico Horner than Matt Shaw.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, Nico Horner plays gold glove defense.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like a four war player.

[SPEAKER_01]: So even if he gets traded, and they, and they, the cops want to put shots second.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so Horner's traded like he's going to, he's going to hit and he's probably going to hit at the top of the lineup.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a, you know, 280 hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like he's going to be in the top of the light app.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to steal bases.

[SPEAKER_01]: He plays defense.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's going to get full time with bats.

[SPEAKER_01]: If I'm a match shot owner, I'm a bit worried.

[SPEAKER_01]: either they're going to trade him or he's going to sit on the bench or maybe they believe in him more than horn or and then move them to second base.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I think a lot's come out that is political leanings and I know there's a lot of people don't like them.

[SPEAKER_01]: That probably has landed in the front office and so like do they want someone who's kind of a divisive, I don't know if you say that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, or not, I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I, you know, I'm a little less comfortable with the signing in terms of Breggman.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, he's famously got, you know, low bat speed, but it's like the air pole.

[SPEAKER_01]: So at Fenway with the green monster and the Crawford bucks of the Astros, he's really kind of done well because of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he got more home runs than he hit more home runs and, you know, his bat speed and exit velocities and all that wouldn't otherwise indicate.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I saw, I think might have been like Petriolo from, uh,

[SPEAKER_01]: from MLB, writing about Isaac Parades, this is the kind of thing who's, again, famously, near Paul Guy, all he pulls his home runs and when he came to the Coversy, you know, he did not hit home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I could see Brighman not hitting 20 home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could see him being 15 home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could see him being 12 to 15 home runs, especially in a few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, he'll still be a, you know, high-war player, he plays good defense, former short-stop, great bat-to-ball skills, et cetera, good lineup around him, so he's going to still be a very valuable fantasy contributor.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just maybe he's not the best landing spot for him, specifically if you're a dynasty owner.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think that's, you know, 100% true, especially like a right-handed pull hit or two, I think, I think it plays bigger to left field than anywhere else.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll just say on like the Shaw stuff, man, you know, it's the Rick it's, I don't, I don't think they care.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you're going to have problems with the cubs, there were plenty of problems that you could probably have with the cubs right away.

[SPEAKER_00]: But let's take a quick break here, Dylan, we come back, we're going to get into FYPD, what do you

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's do it, all right, we'll be right back.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, we are back, and I'm gonna put Dylan into the hot seat.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna have him answer, excuse me, answer, ask me some questions, and I'll sit on the other side and play smart guy analyst for once.

[SPEAKER_00]: What do you say, Joe?

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's do it, let's do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, well, I'm gonna hand it over to you and I'll throw up the first question.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why do you have Tutsuya Emi at number one?

[SPEAKER_01]: Famously signing with the Astros, a pitcher who didn't want to sign with the Dodgers, maybe because he wants to be better than Otani and Yamamoto not be in their shadow or in Sasaki.

[SPEAKER_01]: So why do you have Tutsuya Emi at number one?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it's just the matter of safety at this point.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could look at,

[SPEAKER_00]: either of the, you know, NPP bats in more economy in Akamoto, and, you know, see more upside because it is it is a hitter.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could look at some of the collage arms and see more long-term upside, I think the same with that prep short stop group that we'll talk through in a few minutes.

[SPEAKER_00]: But ultimately, you're going to get a immediate impact in year one from

[SPEAKER_00]: really good.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he could translate in a way that maybe differs from some of the other MPB imports that we've seen, yamamoto, Otani, like freak, freak examples, you know, even Tanaka when he first came over.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think just like where he can locate the fastball here, the types and styles of hitters that he's going to face.

[SPEAKER_00]: The fact that I, you know, I think

[SPEAKER_00]: He has a really interesting slider.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's his best pitch.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's been his most effective pitch in MPB.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's maybe some question marks how in terms of how it translates, it's kind of a reverse slider.

[SPEAKER_00]: Not dissimilar from

[SPEAKER_00]: uh, uh, uh, tray of savages, but different in the sense of like it moves a little differently.

[SPEAKER_00]: The savages does, but more often than not breaks a little bit on the arm side.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, doesn't really have anything that goes glove side at all.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um,

[SPEAKER_00]: has like a sweepy kind of curve ball that'll throw, we just throw it all the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I wouldn't be shocked if, you know, maybe there's something that they could add in terms of like a fourth pitch, it is the Astros.

[SPEAKER_00]: They tend to like their pitchers to have four to five pitches and they're arsenal.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've heard some discuss that there's two different variations of like off speed, like a change up and then a splitter.

[SPEAKER_00]: Primarily based on the numbers that I've seen, it looks like it's just a splitter.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, like most splitters, it can look a little different from time to time, like they're a little bit wild in terms of that tail at the end and how much it might run.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you told me there's two different variations of it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sure, that's kind of interesting.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, he does have three pitches that I think he can miss bats with.

[SPEAKER_00]: He didn't miss as many bats and MPB with a fast ball as you'd expect.

[SPEAKER_00]: Some of that I think has to do with flatter swing contact hitters.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that tends to push guys like this who are, you know, low release high spin efficiency, you know, flat VA, you know, decent extension, like all that stuff, it tends to like force those guys to have to throw down a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and I think when you watch some of the Japanese games, you see a lot more like, like,

[SPEAKER_00]: Like low strike zone fastball locations that you don't necessarily see in the big leagues, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You just don't always guys with their own sinkers from like a steeper plane or whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you can ride that thing like at the top of the zone, get more chases than maybe we got MPB.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he might give up some home runs to especially like with the Crawford boxes is a righty like I think that's going to happen.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the ERA may not be pristine, but I think it'd be like high threes, like a low four, but I think the caves are gonna be higher than what I've seen in the projections.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the other big part of it doing is like I said, you're gonna get three years of production before most of these guys are up.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's higher upside guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now that said,

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a rebuilding team, I might look at my situation in the league and I might approach it a little bit differently.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that pick like, if I'm just looking at it blindly from most teams, you're probably gonna take a mile if you're in a shallow, relieved, like a 12 team league.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot easier to turn your team from maybe the worst team in the league or one of the worst teams in the league to a competitive team that could potentially win the championship or whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's 12 team league.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can do that pretty quickly.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's some majority of the leagues that, you know, people still plan for dynasty, maybe they're a little bit deeper, but still, you know, I think we're going to see my go one in a lot of these drafts.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't think it's that controversial of a pick, but I do think there's a few different ways that you can kind of go out one depending on what your leagues like and how it's set up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I think so the Astros love their, you know, flat VA, hi, I VB guys, liquidly scarcity, a Christian hobby or that type of thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so my fits perfectly there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those guys, you know, they kind of outperformed their projections coming up in the minors.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I think I could see my definitely outperforming his projections.

[SPEAKER_01]: And like you're saying, in a deeper league, like 30-team league, you want him eye, I think, because he's going to play in the majors and be like, even if he's casey-mise, I'm just trying to pick something like random, kind of, after.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's still solid, and that's still useful and productive in a 30-team league.

[SPEAKER_01]: And in a 12-team league, like,

[SPEAKER_01]: It's so shallow, you can have, you can churn your prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're not, you want a K to Anderson or something.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's in weight and weight and weight and weight.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like we've seen Andrew Painter and Ricky T. And it's like, it's years before they even sniffed the major league.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I see it might be like a solid pick no matter the type of league you're in.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think there's a chance that Anderson's up late in 26 or even like early 27.

[SPEAKER_00]: But there's also a chance that like he's not up until 2028, you know, like it is, it is an organization that has a pretty stacked pitching staff now, it traded, some other things could happen, but there's no guarantee there either.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think in certain leagues, in certain circumstances, he's definitely somebody I might consider one doing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Perfect segue, so who else would you consider other than Katie Anderson at number one overall?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, well, I think Doyle and Anderson, especially in leagues were maybe the MPB players are unavailable.

[SPEAKER_00]: I still think offer quite a bit of upside and potentially some immediacy in terms of they could be up in the big leagues within the next couple of years.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm higher on Doyle than others are.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll kind of dig into that a little bit now.

[SPEAKER_00]: I want you to fair amount of college baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see a lot of guys that dominate their draft year in the fashion that Doyle did.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see a lot of lefties with a power that Doyle has.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, there's questions about his fastball usage and maybe a lack of a plus secondary.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think the splitter flash is plus.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that can be a really good pitch for him, especially as a lefty.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a few different breaking ball variations.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's enough feel for spin in there to potentially get to an average or better breaking ball and it's an all-world fastball.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, even in the organization's where

[SPEAKER_00]: They value breaking ball usage to an extreme, like the Red Sox.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're gonna guy like Peyton, totally throws his fastball lot, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And we just saw Peyton, totally, who wasn't as good as Liam Doyle in college, who probably didn't have his developed secondary as Liam Doyle in college.

[SPEAKER_00]: Essentially, do what Liam Doyle did by adding the velocity, having this flat plane left hander, and then kind of cascading a bucket of different, you know, secondary shapes off of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: The off speed, maybe being as best, but doesn't always command it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not that different.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's kind of a patent, totally starter practice.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not as big, maybe the extension isn't as outlier, but he does so many things well.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the other thing, it's like, he's fiery.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like he wants to win.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's kind of got that lunatic mentality that I think can work as a starter.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not all that different from the way Chase Burns approaches it, and he was better than Burns

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's necessarily like pound for pound the same prospect burns is, but

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a really good college pitcher who had a ton of success in the SEC, and it's not like he's this undersized right hander, you know, like a Carson Fulmer or a Jack Lider, who by the way is kind of turned it around, of course, you know, with that maybe the landing pro ball won't be so easy.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just, I think if, if there was relief for us, he wouldn't have gone as deep into starts as he did in college, frankly, and been that pipe of starter that he was.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like that, to me, is the difference between drafting high school starting pitchers and college starting pitchers is the college starting pitchers more often than not have proven that they're starting pitchers.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even when they become relievers when they first get the call like a crochet,

[SPEAKER_00]: into the rotation.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think it's in those guys DNA, especially when they have to pitch in these big increments in the SEC.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can't replicate that type of environment in merely baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: You just can't.

[SPEAKER_00]: You don't see it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've been to Worcester who, you know, sells as many tickets for mildly games as you'll see.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is not like an SEC crowd on a Friday night.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's not, it just isn't.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, he spent two years in the SEC, you know, continually leveled up every season, got better and better until, you know, he was one of the best, you know, starters in college baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, I think, you know, he's somebody I consider it one, I think Kate Anderson is right there with him.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's a little bit safer than Doyle and some regards.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how big the upside is, frankly.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I don't know necessarily where like Anderson goes from here, I think he's more kind of ready-made, little more refined, it's a good pitchability arsenal.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, the stuff is still pretty good.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we've seen him compete in big games.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I would consider those guys at one, I think if you are somebody who's competing this year and you were able to land the number one pick,

[SPEAKER_00]: the right trade last off season.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, with the guy who ended up with the number one pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you need a position player like in my 30 team league where, you know, prior to making that Chapman trade, if I, I was trying to trade up into like the top,

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, three picks.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I could get Aquimoto or more economy.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I kind of figured, like, well, at least it's a plug-and-play, you know, third basement.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if like, you need a corner in field or first basement, third basement in deeper league, I could see going number one with those guys as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: If none of the MPB guys are available, and you are a team that is rebuilding and beginning of a rebuild, and you want to take a shot, I could see taking a shot

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, you know, how crazy that might be.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I do have him as my top draft position player Dylan.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll bounce it back over to you.

[SPEAKER_00]: I am buying into the hot, I don't know what your thoughts, your thoughts, your thoughts, your thoughts, what your thoughts are, it's my advantage, apparently I can't talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: What your thoughts are on Kilbee.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I can kind of go into my spiel after you say your spiel.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, when the drafts start playing in the minors and we got the stack as data, we could see their production, I mean, he was obviously one that that jumped out the contact was very good.

[SPEAKER_01]: both right to the contact and in zone contact, he didn't chase at all.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he had a 104, 90th percentilex velocity.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a small sample size.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, he just he was hitting all the boxes that we like, we like the swing decisions, we like the contact, and then we like the quality of the contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so he, he was like in the top 10, I think, in a low way, even with his, his debut of only like a hundred played appearances.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm, I'm all in on Killby.

[SPEAKER_01]: He plays shortstop, um, right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's pretty athletic.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's, it's not just like a, a slugger who, you know, has good underlying stack as he's kind of like a baseball player.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I can definitely see Dax Killby, uh,

[SPEAKER_01]: being in that conversation and just about Liam Doyle, um, just going to be fascinating to see how it plays like I was tracking sort of the division one college is like trying to do like a robust scout version of it as the season was going, you know, Jamie Arnold certain off so big and then

[SPEAKER_01]: He kind of tailed off and Liam Doyle is just consistently at the top and we have the stack cast and he's got one of the best fast balls Maybe we'll talk about someone later in this episode who has a better fastball budget super flat and I'll just be fascinating how how it Hell pans out in the majors just because he he used it so

[SPEAKER_01]: primarily, like it was like 80% fastballs.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just wonder how that will translate in the major leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully, he's up this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have him a bunch of DCs.

[SPEAKER_01]: Love the price, get him me in the 40th round or after.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I really believe in the stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I want to see how Liam do all of this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think there's some runway in that organization for him to find himself in that rotation fairly quickly.

[SPEAKER_00]: They haven't had a lot of guys like him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there needs to be some credit that does go to high and bloom for some of the groundwork that was kind of laid.

[SPEAKER_00]: within the Red Sox organization that allowed all that development, pitching, et cetera, to flourish, you know, present and draft all of those guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: Some of the really good ones he did, but not all of them.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that Bloom has already done a good job of starting to really assemble some talented prospects there.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I agree with you, on Killby, you know, I think it's just he has this combination of athleticism,

[SPEAKER_00]: Potential power when you see in the underlying EVs, plate skills, and we have some track record to go off of already.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, you know, I think that matters.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I just think the tools in a class like this where a lot of these prep short stops kind of pick your poison.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think.

[SPEAKER_00]: Eli Willitz is in a real life setting as a really well-rounded, power-washed, interesting player with a lot of upside.

[SPEAKER_00]: You may buy into that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that the power upside is there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Just based on his frame and athleticism and just the...

[SPEAKER_00]: true meaning of projection.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know if that like 20 home run type of projection is there or I think that's there with Kilbe with the speed and you know whether he's a short stop third baseman center fielder kind of has the legs and athleticism to move all over so I kind of buy into that that I think there's a really high end outcome here maybe higher than some of the other guys so in a draft where it's it's really muddled

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm kind of going to go with a guy like that, where I just believe in the tools.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the Yankee factors are a real thing that, you know, they get so much hype those prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so, I think having Dax Kielby as opposed to the, like, well, it's in your example of the nationals.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I just think that he's going to be getting more hype than right.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that actually has, I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, unless you maybe play with a bunch of

[SPEAKER_00]: I just feel like it has more negative connotation because there's a whole segment of the population and that this doesn't happen with a Marlons prospect, it doesn't happen.

[SPEAKER_00]: With a brewer's prospect, it doesn't happen.

[SPEAKER_00]: With a Mariners prospect or a Rangers prospect or a D-Bax prospect, but that Yankees prospect, he is always overrated.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even if he turns out to be, you know, whoever, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Cam Schlitler, they're always overrated.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it almost,

[SPEAKER_00]: has like the opposite effect on some guys where I feel like they're almost like underrated because their Yankees are red socks prospects, you know?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, where I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a lot of overrated prospects for a lot of teams that's just an nature of the business and the industry.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's move on a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk a little bit about Seth Hernandez.

[SPEAKER_00]: I really buy in to the Seth Hernandez upside.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that if you want to say this could be the best player on the draft, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_00]: I also understand the studies that we've even done over the years on high school pitchers.

[SPEAKER_00]: It typically takes a minimum six years from when a guy gets drafted to when he's finally established in a rotation.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like by that point,

[SPEAKER_00]: the age factors worn off and that college starter and the same draft might have already been in the big leagues for three or four years, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And like, in a dinosaur league, that matters because that three or four year starter, like once he's in year two, you can probably sell that guy for a min.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, this guy might be coming off to Tommy John Surgery.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now,

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't wish that on Seth Hernandez, he's been very healthy, but he throws 100 miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a few different pitches, he's got feel, he's an athletic mover, there's good extension, all that sort of stuff like people who love Seth Hernandez.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I do think it's going to be like your

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think we've seen some bumps along the way for those types.

[SPEAKER_00]: There haven't been, you know, other than even hunter green had his bumps along the way.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those players are tough to roster for a long period of time.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, because they're not the easiest trade ships.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's Killby or Eli Willets are probably going to be Jojo Parker who we also have in that range, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Those are going to be easier trade ships than a Seth Hernandez is going to be doing right and that's one of the reasons that, you know, I went with the players I did and I went kill be Parker will it's

[SPEAKER_00]: And then I put Hernandez there.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's before the international guys who signed today, because it is January 15th is recording this Luis Hernandez from the Giants and Johansi Colombe with the athletics, both short stops or he talented, followed by steel hall, Gavin Feene, and then we get into some of the college guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that states like, I will draft Hernandez in the right scenario.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think when you're comparing him to some of who I consider to be the three top prep short stops in this class, I get a little bit more cautious.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna pump the brakes a little bit there because it is still like I said.

[SPEAKER_00]: A prep picture, no matter how talented her and is is.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we just don't have as much information on some of these guys as we do on, even some of the prep position prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I see the argument like in the FIPD mock draft we just did read on the site, Carlos had the six pick and he took them and he said in his blurb, you know, he probably would have taken a number one he's got the highest upside type of thing I totally get that argument, but I like I am on your side about the like the time horizon thing like I don't want to wait.

[SPEAKER_01]: The worst is when you wait the look I finally debuted and then there's not great like he's got it He needs a year and then but that year he was terrible like I don't know the best you lead over something and then it's like Oh, do I still roster him do I take up one of my valuable roster spots for this guy Because he's no longer minors that eligible like in the leagues I play in and I just hate having to make that decision

[SPEAKER_01]: But if he, like, well, it's moved from short stop to second.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's still a, a prospect who's going to be valuable in fantasy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like, I think the picture is obviously, it's well worn and well documented how they're, you know, they're the risky ones and don't invest in young pictures.

[SPEAKER_01]: And no such thing as pitching prospects about stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's so many different angles of why that's true, that I don't think I could take Setherland as that early,

[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely rebounding.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just trying to hit like on a rebuilding and I just want to hit a home run.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, I need the home run.

[SPEAKER_01]: I need the lottery ticket.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then maybe I would do it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if I'm just trying to build a team.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm probably not going to take it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I could see it like, you know, after the top guys go and

[SPEAKER_00]: like a points league, you know, and it may be if you have deeper mind spots and that's sort of thing you can hold them.

[SPEAKER_00]: That guy could certainly be really value before you if it potentially pays off.

[SPEAKER_00]: But let's go in with what I really like in this class doing.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that is the loaded prep short stop class.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because even after, so, you know, in terms of how we have them lined up,

[SPEAKER_00]: Ethan Holiday at 16, Josh Hammond at 18, Xavier, Nyan's at 19.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm kind of off a holiday.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that like the whiffs were so bad.

[SPEAKER_00]: We know there's impact there.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's gonna stick at short stop.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's really gonna move down the defensive spectrum.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's really gonna have to hit.

[SPEAKER_00]: I have major questions on that hit tool

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, even if it gets a lot better, it's still gonna be pretty bad.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, like I can't just completely hand wave away how bad the pro debut was.

[SPEAKER_00]: When I'm hearing for two years from a lot of more honest people within the space that had spent a lot of time on holiday, at least like the work with teams were like, I don't know if this guy's hit tools is good as people think.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, maybe a 40 projection hit to old, if you're rosy, I don't know how you could put a 50 on this or he got there.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's just he's a different type of hit from his brother.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's a power guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not adverse to like rostoring him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think like, and this seems to be the consensus more and more.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that the value on him at this moment has changed versus some of these other guys in my opinion.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I even think like if you prefer Josh Hammond or Xavier Nions, Nions has similar hit tool concerns, but it's more power than holiday has.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe better angles too.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's exciting, especially if you think the hit tool can come along.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a lot of Roman Anthony Comps from Scouts.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hammond is let two way guys gonna be spending his time as a position player going forward, but it's kind of like 50s and 55s all across the board, maybe there's 60 power in there.

[SPEAKER_00]: If things really max out, so it's a really talented group and then I think you can kind of go

[SPEAKER_00]: a little bit deeper to like a Lee Carlson who I have a 26.

[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of people are completely off Billy Carlson.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's foolish.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he, I think there's still a chance he could hit.

[SPEAKER_00]: This could be like a mason wind.

[SPEAKER_00]: type of player, where he's a standout defender, he runs, there's enough power with, you know, a polished bats, bats a ball ability and hit tool better than people even anticipated.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's kind of what when was this guy was a high-level player all over the place and he's a really good athlete.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there's potentially more power projection there than people realize, you know.

[SPEAKER_00]: Definitely can't write those guys off also a big fan of Quentin Young.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I have 31.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, part of the the the the famous young family with with Delman and Demetri.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's a really impressive athlete probably ends up at third base huge power almost James wouldish type of a profile.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then Eden West who I think might be one of the best combinations of power and speed.

[SPEAKER_00]: in the high school class.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's the guy that I've really gone to the table on at 33.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think you're going to see eight and west that high too many places, but I'm a big, eight and west believer.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that kind of goes through some of the prep short stops there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let me throw you on the hot seat for for for a sec.

[SPEAKER_01]: Connor Griffin.

[SPEAKER_01]: who among this prep group could possibly have sort of the kind of griff and trajectory, not doesn't have to be the same type of player, like it doesn't have to be a power speed guy, but someone who could maybe be in the conversation for top prospect next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't know if they're the guy like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, like I got to probably like a DAX kill B.

[SPEAKER_00]: Billy Carlson's knocks are eerily similar to Connor Griffin's, but I don't think anybody is expecting, you know, that kind of, he doesn't have a Connor Griffin body, so I don't know, I don't think anyone's anticipating that's going to happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: be the first to be the first to stay right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm not going to say.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to say Billy Carlson is the next comment Griffin have every white socks podcast on earth and sample that posted it on the internet.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I don't know, we can jump through a few more of these guys here going a little long.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, uh, let's jump to, uh, let's jump to gauge what I kind of, I tease it a bit about Liam Doyle, maybe I mean, the best fastball, but, you know, gauge would stuff and what we saw on the underlying is pretty fantastic goal.

[SPEAKER_01]: Go, I know you like gauge what's a talk about.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, we did see a little bit of, uh, gauge would, um, after the draft, but I think we'll see him more obviously at a full season level this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: What's it going to be exciting and I think the reason for that is it's really really good stuff fastball last year at Arkansas set 96 miles an hour up to 98

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, pretty decent extension for an undersized guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's listed six fees, probably more like 511.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's getting like 64 extension.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like a 4.0, 4.1 VAA.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's really flat.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even if that takes up a little bit and pro ball, it's still going to be, you know, a 96 mile per hour fastball.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's pretty flat from a low release height with.

[SPEAKER_00]: more induced vertical break than you would expect from that release height.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a nasty curveball as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like

[SPEAKER_00]: low to mid 80s, so like 83 to 85, super high spin, you know, 26, 127, 100 RPMs, big two plane movement, got a ton of swings and misses on that one, really plays off of that, that forcing fastball.

[SPEAKER_00]: The question is, you know, King developed a third pitch.

[SPEAKER_00]: He kind of showed a cutter, type slider, gyro pitch, a little bit of an arc and saw it in third of ton.

[SPEAKER_00]: the fillies I've heard haven't working on that and could have thrown it a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, we'll see about the off speed.

[SPEAKER_00]: So there's definitely some relief risk here.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I also think that he could have, and maybe it's just in the name gauge, could have like a gauge jump type of rise next season where it really performs college starter, a big fastball, and he just kind of eats with those two pitches, and slowly develops the third pitch, the third

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, he threw like 400 fastballs compared to the Liam Doyles like thousands, but higher velocity, it was flatter, more width, better CSW, more more extension as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like that effect of velocities even more.

[SPEAKER_01]: So really love the fastballs, as much as Liam Doyles fastball eats, so does gauge wood.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I really like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he is kind of underrated, but I think people are kind of catching up on that.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have pretty high, and I think James Anderson hasn't pretty high, too.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not really under the radar anymore.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think there's even chance that like I'm lower on him by a couple spots than some other people.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, but I think that's an appropriate spot.

[SPEAKER_00]: You want to go a little higher.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I think it's, these are these draft rankings, especially when it's specific to something like this, got to think about your league, got to think about your team and use it as a roadmap right kind of look at, all right, and I want this kind of a player going to go for this kind of a player want to prep player want to, you know, college starter, maybe you push gauge what would up 10 spots right, but just kind of lay it a land this is.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is how I laid it all out Dylan.

[SPEAKER_00]: I appreciate you help me out with this one today Dylan for all those that have tuned in.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for tuning in to another baseball America fantasy podcast.