00:00:00
Speaker 1: We're just under two months away from the start of the footy season and a lot of predicts are already out. We're going through every team's over and under in the next hour or so. We're going to run through them very quickly. My name's Josh Barnes. I got Matthew Forest and I've got Chris Cavanaugh with me. We've gone through every team. We're going to do an alphabetical order, which means we start with Adelaide Over Under a fourteen point five wins. Last year they won eighteen. That's a big, big total. Can they measure up to that again, cav I.

00:00:24
Speaker 2: Think they can, yes, So I've got them as a lock to be over that four point from the start. In my first lock, I think they're bought in a two time premiership player at the lines in Calmarche. They've lost no. One of significance. Adelaide Over was a fortress for him. They went twelve and one there last year. Dan Curtain's ready to go full beast mode this year. I reckon in the midfield as he moves on ball, and I think the straight sets finals exit last year was definitely disappointing, but I think they'll be pretty keen to bounce back from that, and I think they can. So I think they finished and easily go over that line.

00:01:02
Speaker 3: What do you recommend.

00:01:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got them going over the line as well. I've got them finishing on sixteen, so not quite as high as you, but I think there aren't any major losses from that side. As you've mentioned, Archie coming in certainly helps them, and Dan Kurtin going into that midfield mix that they were missing that sort of explosive player inside the center square. And then obviously Isaac Rankin has been dominating through there when he gets his chance, and I feel like twenty twenty six is the year that he'll get that full stint to the midfield and you really tear the game apart.

00:01:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had them over as well. I had to really think about it. I don't think they'll be anywhere near as good as eighteen wins. I think they overachieved on that with a softer draw, and they dominated at home, as you said, CAV, but I think they'll probably maintain most of that. They've only hit the over four times since two thousand and six, so they haven't had a great track record here, but in the past three year. They've got a bonus home game Central every year, so I think that gets them to fifteen. Yeah, I think that gets them to fifteen. So I think they probably just get there. But I think that one's going to be tighter than perhaps you think.

00:02:02
Speaker 5: CAV.

00:02:02
Speaker 1: Brisbane Lions, they're over under fifteen point five. They won the last two flags, won sixteen last year. Since twenty nineteen, Chris Fagan's teams won sixteen, fourteen, fifteen, fifteen, seventeen, fourteen and sixteen, so they win a lot of gains Brisbane, I have them over here, but sixteen is a lot.

00:02:18
Speaker 5: CAV, what do you think?

00:02:20
Speaker 3: It is a lot?

00:02:21
Speaker 2: But yeah, considering as you said, they won sixteen on the drawl last year. But does anyone actually think they're going to drop off? I don't think they are. Look at that midfield that they've got, it's only getting stronger. We saw what they did in the final series last last year. They got a reasonable fixed, hard to beat at the Gabbar and I think that will obviously seem Draper and Oscar Allen coming in is a pretty nice boost.

00:02:44
Speaker 3: So yeah, Draper goes straight.

00:02:46
Speaker 2: Into that number one Ruckman spot and could also go forward and kick the old goal and Oscar aal and if he can get himself fit, I mean he could be a fifty gold a season goalkid, get four and forward, and they need that support for Logan Morris as well. So yeah, I'm tipping the lines to join that two thousand and one to two thousand and three team and secure the three peat this year.

00:03:07
Speaker 3: So I've got them going over here.

00:03:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're my lock to go over as well. I'll take them fifteen. I'll take the I'm very optimistic on the lines. As cav has mentioned, they absolutely get better going into twenty twenty six. Oscar Allen I think will add a lot of quality that forward line. They lose a couple of guys in defense, so they do need to shore that up obviously. Brands Statsovich going over to West Coast and Eric you put at some stage we'll come back and add a bit more quality to the forward line. Could be swung back as well, just to help out down there with Harris Andrews. But you talk about Dan Annibal coming in through the draft. People spoke about him. CAV was big on him last year, saying that if he was in the lines side in the back end of the year he could have been playing in that finals campaign, so that adds another piece of quality there. Louis Kalamarchie as we mentioned before with the Crows, but yeah, he's absolutely The lines in general, I think are going to be a really strong side and hard to beat in this year.

00:04:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, just needs to find another spot down animal, doesn't he if he wants to play this year.

00:04:06
Speaker 3: There's not many spots in that midfield for him.

00:04:08
Speaker 2: But yeah, he can certainly play half forward or a wing or a half back sort of role as well.

00:04:12
Speaker 5: Yeah, definitely.

00:04:13
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody looking at their list could think that they're worse off than they were last year. It's only if those injuries sort of start catching up to them, and they didn't last year, so hard to see them dropping off really in any meaningful way. Carlton is a real question mark. They've gone over their A point five of this year every year under Michaelvoss. They won nine last year. But nobody's really feeling good about the Blues forrest Iff Charlie Cerno's out.

00:04:36
Speaker 5: Are they under this?

00:04:37
Speaker 3: Are they over this?

00:04:38
Speaker 4: It's funny I've got them going under, but I actually like their structure more without in the side. They obviously had a couple of spons players and Oli Florin and Will Hayward. Hayward obviously makes a bit more difference in the forward line, but floring off the half back will add a little bit there they get Nick Newman back. I really like that. I guess the twenty three to twenty six players that the Blues will rotate through pretty heavily as long as there aren't any major injuries. Tom deaconing out does hurt to an extent. I think Mark Pittnett as a number one ruck with Liam Reedy as a backup who plays forward, with the new twenty three players on the team, I think that makes a big you know, that offsets it a little bit. But in saying that, I don't love their game style the way that Michael Voss has got them playing. I think they do need a change from last years. There has been signs over the preseason that they're going to change that system and change the way they play and move it a bit more fluidly through the middle of the ground. But in years gone by, every team that's been coached by Michael Voss seems to be a really contested style, tackle heavy team and that just isn't football anymore. It doesn't really work in the current modern day football as it stands. It's really you know, propel off the half back and push the ball as fast as you can forward and play a little bit of chaos footy.

00:05:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, big year for Michael VISs obviously, but I think yeah, is it no Curnow, no Carlton, I'm not sure. I mean, I'm not sure that Harry mccuite can hold up a four line by himself. I also worry about their defense and what that looks like. They've gone with McGovern and and Nick Hans going around again this year, but you know, Jacob Wodering really holds up that area of the ground for him. Yeah, they've got an ik midfield, Jagoe Smith comes in, which is exciting for Blues fans. But yeah, I've got them going under. I think it might be a long year.

00:06:21
Speaker 3: For the Blues.

00:06:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, they've got some real pressure points there. As you said, cav like Harry McKay has to play nine percent of their matches and he's going to be almost a one out forward for a lot of that, so there's a lot of pressure on him. Mike Pinon, as you said's probably going to have to lead the ruck with lem Ready who's unproven. That's a lot of pressure on that area, and the back line suddenly looks a lot weaker with McGovern who they didn't really want anyway, they didn't want to resign him. They've got him back and he might be starting in their best side. So there's a lot of areas of issue. But I think if they are fit, there's still quite a good list. The question of if the fit has been an issue for them as well, So I think over is reasonable for them here and I'm going the over, but it could really fall apart in Michael Oscar going on LinkedIn by May. We'll see what happens there. Collingwood has had a great track record under Craig McCrae. They won sixteen last year. They're over under his thirteen point five for this year. Craig McCrae's career sixteen wins, eighteen wins, twelve wins and sixteen generally he wins games, So thirteen point five seems a bit low to me.

00:07:18
Speaker 5: What do you guys think?

00:07:20
Speaker 2: I think it's well, we've said it last couple of years, but it's Dad's army at Collingwood, isn't it. So they're the oldest list in the competition this year, and I think the cliff is just about here for the Pyes, we're already seeing that over pre season.

00:07:33
Speaker 3: The old man injuries.

00:07:34
Speaker 2: Are bobbing up with the calves at Darcy Moore and Jeremy how and these guys have done. We've sent some hamstrings that they've had some injury issues. Nick Dekos isn't fully fit at the moment it appears, so yeah, I just they've also got the third hardest draw. They've got double up matches against Adelaide, Brisbane, Carton, Geelong, Hawthorne and West Coast. West Coast is the only sort of easy one that you look at out of those. So yeah, I just I think it might be it might be for them mag Byes to miss finals this year and they'll have to regenerate their list a bit over the next few years.

00:08:06
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:08:06
Speaker 4: I feel like the cliff has been coming for a while at least everyone talks about it. And they've managed to find a way to stay relevant and keep winning games and you know, play a lot of finals and you know, picking them to miss finals this year or this which is what I'm doing. It seems a bit stiff considering they did make a preliminary final last year. But I just don't see the quality of the young young talent really coming through. Obviously you can talk about Nick Decos, he's a superstar of the competition. They've got some young guys that they're starting to blood, like Ed Allen, but there just isn't really that the real depth of players there that's pushing the next generation through. You'd probably want a fair few more players that are in between that sort of thirty to sixty game range that can start to take a bit more responsibility and take a bit more pressure off the guys like steel side Bottom Scott Penalbury have been there forever. And obviously losing Brody Meyerchik to Melbourne as well, question marks over what exactly the Ford line looks like. Breeth McKinnon's coming back from an ACL. He was really really important to their structure going into the year last year. Obviously that ACL very early on meant we didn't see him. Does he come back to the same sort of player in defense he was supposed to fill that void of Nathan Murphy, So a lot of question marks. I've got the missing finals and are pretty easy under.

00:09:15
Speaker 5: Yeah, I went the over here. I'm back in Craig mcgrage's track record.

00:09:18
Speaker 1: After thirteen games last year, they had eleven wins, so they almost beat the over halfway through the season last year, so we forget how dominant they were in that first half of the year. Obviously things fell away in the second half of the year. Whether that's a sign I thinks to come or they just got a little bit fatigued, I guess we'll find out. I am worried about that forward line so much was relying on Jamie Elliott last year. He probably can't have a season as good as that. Again, he kicked sixty goals last year and has never beaten thirty five in a season before that, so that's asking a lot for him to repeat that. Bobby Hill is out at the moment for personal reasons, as he said, Brady Michik's gone. Damn xstay is a big question mark, So there are issues up forward. But I just think their track record of winning games, they rack them up in the first half of the season, and I think they'll do that easily the next he is not expected to win many games. Essenon's over under his seven point five. It was a disaster of a season last year. They can't be that bad again, cav can they.

00:10:09
Speaker 3: Well, I've got them going under. I think they can be.

00:10:11
Speaker 1: They won six games last year, so yes, despite their disaster, they got reasonably close to their overunder.

00:10:16
Speaker 2: But they lost the last thirteen on the trot so that's that's the key point there.

00:10:20
Speaker 5: Fortunately, we had to watch them all on Thursday.

00:10:23
Speaker 2: Lost the last thirteen and by on average of forty two points, so it was We know about their injury issues that they had in the second half of last year, but that was a It was a poor finish to the season. They did get a chance to blood a lot of young kids. They do have a young list.

00:10:36
Speaker 3: I think there is.

00:10:37
Speaker 2: Some reason for optimism in the next few years for the Bombers, but I don't think it'll be this year. I think all the messaging out of Tallamarine over the summer so far has been for fans to prepare for another tough season, and I think.

00:10:51
Speaker 3: That's what we'll get.

00:10:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, we know that they've changed their high performance department, so we hope that their injury list.

00:10:59
Speaker 3: Is a bit better this year, but has to be sure.

00:11:01
Speaker 2: How can you know really, because a few of those guys have had a lot of soft tissue injuries and they're all the year older and more experienced guys Langford Parish, these guys Ridley, so McKai, even zach Reid's, you know, they're they're important players down back that have had a lot of injury issues over over multiple years now.

00:11:18
Speaker 3: So yeah, you can only hope that the.

00:11:21
Speaker 2: Bombers have a better run, but I'm not sure that they will make their make the grade there at seven point five wins either way.

00:11:27
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got them sneaking under the line as well. They'll be in a battle for a bottom four spot there. But the foundation for the next few years, as cav mentioned, I really like, I think the talent is there from a from a youngster's eight bracket. They will trying blood games to two guys like Dyson Sharp, Jacob Farrow, Sally Roby, the guys that they invested heavily in at the draft. You know, I'm a big fan of you know, Nate Cardy up Ford, a couple of the small Fords there. If they can get Lewis Hayes back on the park as well. You know, there's there's plenty young talent, but they just need to play a lot of games together, try and stay fit, and I think a as Cave has mentioned, it's a focus on the future. It's probably twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty eight and beyond. But I think the talent is certainly there to get about six wins this year, so they'll sneak under.

00:12:16
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:12:16
Speaker 1: I agree with you for us that they're doing the right things and they're getting the right young talent in the door, but that means generally you lose if you're getting on young talent in they're getting younger every year. I think the language coming out of Essdon is we're getting younger expecting to get younger, which means they're expecting to lose. So I think if they were picking themselves with TRUSERU, the would probably got unders here and so I'm going under as well. I think they probably get five or six wins, and that doesn't mean it's a worse season than last year if they get less wins, but it means that they're probably looking at the future a lot more.

00:12:44
Speaker 5: Freemantle is not looking at the future. They're looking at the now.

00:12:46
Speaker 1: They want to be premiership contenders over under a fourteen point five for them. They won sixteen last year, one of the best seasons in club history. They're still in the top four for you to go over, cav.

00:12:56
Speaker 2: I've got them going over and yeah, you mentioned that they won sixteen last year, but they've been building nicely, the Dockers over the last three years now. So they went from ten wins to twelve wins to six ten wins last year.

00:13:05
Speaker 3: They made that jump.

00:13:07
Speaker 2: Obviously had that very disappointing finals lost to Gold Coast last September, but I think that'll spur him on this year and they just can't take a backwards step from the trajectory that they've been on. So I think they've got the list ready to go and they've got enough stars if they have a good run with injury that they should really be pushing for top four and just along we probably needs that, doesn't he So yeah, big year for the Dockers, I think.

00:13:33
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think you could argue they've probably got one of the most complete midfields in the competition if you look at the star power and the ruck Sean Darcy Luke Jackson, depending on who you know takes the number one ruck mantle. You could even play Jackson as a full time midfielder and need cope just fine. But then you look at Caleb Sarrong, you look at Andy Brayshaw. They need to get plenty of games out of Hayden Young as well. And then going forward, you know, Josh Tracy is an absolute beast and could easily kick fifty sixty goals this year and absolutely dominate up forward, down back, they're pretty solid. So I've got them going over just slightly finishing on fifteen wins, so just nudging that over Mark. But yeah, plenty to like Olfrea and as cav said, they just can't take a backward step.

00:14:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only sort of downside here is believing in freemanl let's let us down before. So that's my only awareness. Otherwise I think they pretty reasonably comfortby.

00:14:22
Speaker 5: Get this over.

00:14:22
Speaker 1: What's your over under Cav On games that Mason Cox plays for Free Man.

00:14:26
Speaker 3: I don't think he's playing many, Probably not.

00:14:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the amount of times he plays in that that three headed rock monster is going to be very, very minimal, But good luck to him over in the West. Geelong wins games year after year after year. They have carried them up under Chris Scott. Fifteen point five is there over under?

00:14:44
Speaker 5: This year?

00:14:44
Speaker 1: They won seventeen last year. They're finishing the top four five of the last six seasons, which means generally a win more than fifteen point five. Do they do it again for us?

00:14:52
Speaker 3: Yeah?

00:14:52
Speaker 4: I think they do. I think you know, history will repeat them, repeat itself. I've got them seventeen wins for twenty twenty six. They I don't think they're necessarily a much better side, but they get ten games a kid in your park, which is you know, happy hunting ground for them. They had James Warble to a midfield that probably didn't need him, but they'll find a way to use him. Him and Tom Atkins will be a really good pairing to sort of Wax and Wayne and that defensive midfield role. You know, their forward line probably gets a little bit older, but shannon' neil I think he is coming into his own. Another year under the under the belt will be really good for him. And their back line is ultra professional. I think Zach Tuwey, Zach Tuey, Zach Zak, Guthrie Zach Guthriet. My apologies, Sactu, he's long retired.

00:15:36
Speaker 5: He was good though, he was good.

00:15:37
Speaker 4: Yeah, but yeah, Guthrie is an absolute underrated gun of the competition and he's absolutely flying at the moment. He's taking a lot of responsibility off Tom Stewart as he sort of ages out and sort of gets closer to his retirement. But ultra professional. They've got a really good home ground that they take full advantage of, and I just think that they'll they'll keep on winning.

00:15:57
Speaker 2: It just looks strong across the board, doesn't it not? My just changed from last year. Their list is the midfield's great with those Dash brothers, Their full line's got plenty of avenues to go. The defense is rock solid. Well can you can't pick ap up much there? I learn a long time ago not to doubt Chris Scott and Geelong, and so I'm going the overs as well, because hard to see them with the streaks they've got going under.

00:16:23
Speaker 1: I actually went in the under here and that's more of a Vibes pick than anything else. I think fifteen point five is quite hard to reach, and I think this year, surely more than last year, we'll see a bit of a stretch in the later Last year was very much the top nine one lot more games than we're used to. So I think they'll come back a couple and they might win fourteen or fifteen and still be fighting for the top four spot. I think injuries will start to catch up with them a little bit. A few of those older players they still aligned so heavily, maybe struck down a little bit throughout this year.

00:16:48
Speaker 5: They're still searching for a ruckman.

00:16:50
Speaker 4: Really.

00:16:51
Speaker 1: They couldn't get Roan Marshall and they've got a couple of youngsters, but still it looks like Restanley would be starting their best team, and he had a good year last year. But I think that means they're open too, so a issue's in there. So it might be a small step back, and it doesn't mean they can't win the flag, but I think they just go slightly under the fifteen point five.

00:17:06
Speaker 5: It's a very hard mark.

00:17:06
Speaker 1: To reach, and that's what Gold Coast has on their board, fifteen point five for them, they've never won more than more than that in their club history. Best year last year of fifteen first, can they get one more and go over here?

00:17:18
Speaker 4: I've got them getting one more nudging it over again sixteen. Yeah, they'll be pushing for a top four spotkree year last year and they had Christian Petrarca Jamara Yuglahagen if they can clean him up and get him on the park, obviously missed all of last season on the footy field, so if they add him in, you know, just becomes absolutely dynamic cup forward. But Traca, I think is an absolute class addition to a midfield that is already really strong. Even if he plays a lot of his footy up forward, he can be really damaging there. They've just got stars across the park. They've got young guys coming through that are starting to hit their straps and looking really dangerous as well. And yeah, that home field advantage as well is quite strong up on the Gold Coast. So I've got them going over.

00:18:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got them going over as well.

00:18:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably a bit of a lineball call as well, but I think they can generally be a top four team this year and be pushing for a premiership. I mean, they'll take a lot of confidence out of that first finals win that they got last year over in Perth. And you're adding Christian Petrarca as Matt said to nowhere Anderson and Matt real good luck stopping those three if you're in opposition midfield. So yeah, if Jamara can get back to his best, that's another boost for their forward line. Add him in with Ben King, Ben Long these guys as well, and you've got some real goalkickers down there as well. So I think the Sons are going to be pretty dangerous this year and should take the next step.

00:18:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, unlocking them in as an over. They're my first lock of the day. They don't lose in darn if he can count that in. Their home record was nine to two last year. They might even go better than that this year. They're very, very hard to beat up North, so I think they win a lot of games and finish in the top two. I'd be tipping them as own minor premiere tip at this stage, so I think they really rack them up. GWS is up next thirteen point five?

00:19:09
Speaker 3: Is there over?

00:19:10
Speaker 1: Under Adam Kingsley they've gone thirteen wins, fifteen wins and sixteen wins? Are the odd makers being a little bit harshier cap Yeah?

00:19:16
Speaker 2: I'm not sure about you, guys, but I found this one to be a bit of a tough call. I've got a really borderline I've got gwscoing under in the end, just because you can't have them all going over and that's the nature of this game. But yeah, I think the Giants at least make the World Card Round game at the end of the year. But yeah, not everyone can win fourteen games and finish top eight. So Clayton Oliver should be a pretty big recruit. He could be an absolute bargain if he gets himself right. If they get a full season out of Jesse Hogan, that'd be nice boost. Aarreon Cabman's ready to go to the next level. Finn Callahan as well, the two of the best young players in the competition. So I'm almost talking myself into.

00:19:58
Speaker 3: Here.

00:19:58
Speaker 2: But no, I've got a just going under probably wins thirteen games.

00:20:03
Speaker 4: I've got them going over, going against your way of thinking in terms of you can't have them all over. No, I think, yeah, Aaron Cavans is ready to take that number one forward roll off off Jesse. He's I think he'll be, you know, pushing all Australia this year. Clayton Oliver, as you said, is a bargain pick. Will be interesting to see how him and Tom Green work. But then you throw in Finn Callahan is ready to take the competition by storm if he hasn't already, and then that Orange tu Nami coming off half back year. You know, there were times last year where you watch them play and you just couldn't believe that this team wasn't you know, twenty twenty one and oh they were just absolutely obliterating. The competition just comes down to consistency and how consistent that side can be when it comes to, you know, when the whips are cracking and how the you know the game is going. But they've got two home grounds that they play pretty good football at, so I've got them going over.

00:20:50
Speaker 1: No, I'm with Cab here that I for some reason went the under. I'm not really sure why. I think probably just someone has to. I think that makes sense to me. As a twelve thirteen win wild card team, they probably slot into that position. Well, I'm not completely sold on Clayton Oliver as an addition. I'm sure he might have a good personal season, but I'm not sure at this stage of Vicar how much he helps winning.

00:21:10
Speaker 5: And I don't think the fit with.

00:21:11
Speaker 1: Tom Green really works when you have two of those guys, you have to have a lot right around him, and they didn't really have that last year, so they're gonna have to do a lot of massaging there. But I think they probably just go under, but wouldn't surprise me if they're in the top four racking out the wins. As you said, for us, sometimes they look like the best team of the competition by far, and then other times I don't. And often for half of a final they look like the best team in the competition, for the other half they don't.

00:21:32
Speaker 5: So they have a little bit.

00:21:33
Speaker 1: Of work there on their consistency. So that's why I probably give them the under on that one. And that is halfway, so we will take a little bit of a break now catch our thoughts, go back to the ladder predictor are we back to the second half after this