[SPEAKER_13]: This is a special invest talk.

[SPEAKER_13]: Best of caller questions, compilation program.

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[SPEAKER_13]: Please call with questions.

[SPEAKER_13]: 888-99 chart 888-99 C-H-A-R-T.

[SPEAKER_13]: They will be played and answered on an upcoming invest talk podcast.

[SPEAKER_11]: In 1999 chart, in 1999 to 4278, how you get through and ask your question live on today's show.

[SPEAKER_11]: Before we get to the next segment, we'll answer a call or question that came in via that YouTube channel in the comment from ULOM, Spiral, says, thanks.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm enjoying this weekend video a lot.

[SPEAKER_11]: Do you have any views on residential real estate in the Bay Area?

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm looking to buy a house, but I'm worried there's a correction coming soon.

[SPEAKER_11]: The simple answer is yes, I would be worried about a potential drop in Bay Area real estate.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's very correlated to tech and it was rolling pretty hard for, uh, uh, kind of 2023, 2024 and the of the AI kind of resurgence that started near the end of last year into this year and I think that kind of held

[SPEAKER_11]: the Bay Area economy together.

[SPEAKER_11]: But if you start to see some sort of reduction of interest around big tech, and obviously, I've discussed how the business of big tech is suddenly becoming very capital intensive.

[SPEAKER_11]: Does that mean less room for stock options, for employees, et cetera?

[SPEAKER_11]: I think that could be a big factor here and that would feed into residential real estate, especially in Silicon Valley.

[SPEAKER_11]: I would, and I think in general, you just have over valuation across most markets in the United States and you're entering probably 20, 20, 20, 6 will be a year where prices broadly will come down.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, it's going to be dramatic, it's going to be a way crashing in housing.

[SPEAKER_11]: No, no, it's just a multi-year correction, and I think it's already started, and it's just going to be a slow slog, a lot of lot of transactions, and modest declines for a number of years in most markets, including the Bay Area.

[SPEAKER_11]: Let's pivot back to an investment talk, a voicemail question right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hey Justin and Luke, these Franks from all of Los Angeles.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have a question about portfolio management,

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm having a hard time figuring out the right allocation across equity, treasuries, and corporate bonds, especially given the current micro environment.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was thinking about allocating 50% to treasury bond ETFs and the rest to just the value stocks.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm starting to think that I should probably allocate also something to corporate bonds, especially given how sticky inflation is.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm 35 years old and I consider myself a value-oriented investor.

[SPEAKER_01]: especially in this environment, I don't think it makes sense to take much risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: Given this, it will be the ideal split across asset classes for somebody my age.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you very much and I'll be listening on the show.

[SPEAKER_11]: Well, the fact that junior 30s, that's a far too conservative portfolio, 50% in bonds, maybe in more in corporates.

[SPEAKER_11]: For the number one, for cash like holdings, I'm okay with treasuries, short-term treasuries.

[SPEAKER_11]: We use that as a cash alternative, but as a longer-term investment, no, you don't want to be in treasuries, especially any long-duration treasuries, 10 years, 30 years, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_11]: So your your bond main bond exposure should be in corporates now shouldn't be a large percentage of portfolio especially if you're an aggressive investor it should be probably sub 20% of your overall portfolio the rest should be equities and I would lean on the value side of the market and you're starting to see that side start to outperform once again so hopefully I gave you a little perspective and feel free to schedule portfolio view with me.

[SPEAKER_11]: Most tackle another YouTube comment question.

[SPEAKER_11]: Lexus dude 59 says regarding Bitcoin as the canary in the coal mine, your thoughts.

[SPEAKER_11]: Yeah, you know, if you look at the correlation of Bitcoin and what it tends to correlate to, it's mainly a liquidity proxy along with a proxy for text docs.

[SPEAKER_11]: And this is very simple.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's viewed as kind of a fringe asset to the traditional financial system.

[SPEAKER_11]: And it's furthest away from your consumer staples, dividend paying safe stocks, or bonds, for example.

[SPEAKER_11]: But it doesn't pay a dividend.

[SPEAKER_11]: And it's use cases are very minimal outside of mainly speculation.

[SPEAKER_11]: These are the places where capital is pulled out from first.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so that's why it tends to languish and tend to be correlated with liquidity.

[SPEAKER_11]: And then there's a lot of retail investors that their portfolios are filled with the names we just talked about, right, drone companies and profit list tech names or, you know, very expensive highly shorted names by hedge funds, et cetera, and when things are going well, well, they can handle a little leverage, they probably own some Bitcoin as well, those are the Bitcoin holders.

[SPEAKER_11]: big and excited and invest in the sexy things.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so when the Nasdaq goes down, oh, they also have to, many of us are forced to deliver their portfolios, derisks their portfolios, and Bitcoin often takes it from there as well.

[SPEAKER_11]: So once again, it's mostly about liquidity.

[SPEAKER_11]: And the fact that this is struggling right around this level around, what do we have now?

[SPEAKER_11]: And frankly, it's right at that support level that we saw was that mid-doctor and if you record 100,000, that's the June lows and psychological.

[SPEAKER_11]: level of, you know, breaking 100,000 is I think a death kneel to Bitcoin overall, at least in the cycle.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think we're headed for a rough 2026.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think 2027 is probably the buy point at some point where you get a capitulation of negative sentiment.

[SPEAKER_11]: But I certainly think there's a good chance we've topped in this Bitcoin cycle and the charts are certainly lining up for that.

[SPEAKER_11]: So

[SPEAKER_11]: That's why I say it's a canary in the coal mine to broader financial assets in general.

[SPEAKER_11]: And it's one of the pieces of evidence that I talked about on our YouTube video over the weekend.

[SPEAKER_11]: That tells me this market is running on fumes.

[SPEAKER_11]: Typically Bitcoin peaks first and it looked like it did back at the beginning of October.

[SPEAKER_12]: You are listening to an invest talk best of caller questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_12]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_12]: Call anytime 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_12]: That's 88899 CHART.

[SPEAKER_12]: Serious investors are certain to have finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_03]: Hello and best talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is Jose from New York.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm looking into buying a small position in Dollar Tree or Dollar General.

[SPEAKER_12]: And the best person to ask your question in the right way is you.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hi, I'm Bestop.

[SPEAKER_12]: I was calling in with a question on the stop Nike and 24 seven rain or shine Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero stand ready to provide their unbiased answers.

[SPEAKER_11]: That is up into a little bit of resistance.

[SPEAKER_11]: So you probably want a little bit of consolidation here.

[SPEAKER_06]: So this company does not capitalize itself with equity.

[SPEAKER_06]: It does not capitalize itself with debt.

[SPEAKER_12]: Your participation makes it in Vestock better.

[SPEAKER_11]: Let's play a call a question from A to D. I need an answer.

[SPEAKER_12]: This is James from Georgia.

[SPEAKER_12]: I was trying to call about to resemble SCCO.

[SPEAKER_12]: So don't forget to call in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_12]: I appreciate the show, guys.

[SPEAKER_12]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_12]: A to D. D. 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is a special invest talk, best of caller questions, compilation program.

[SPEAKER_13]: Remember, the invest talk phone lines never close.

[SPEAKER_13]: Please call with questions, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: I was just reaching out to see if I could get your thoughts and opinions on the three bucket strategy, and retirement, what you think about it, and how it relates to market downturns, and sequence of return risk,

[SPEAKER_09]: to see if it's a good strategy when you are approaching that time in your life.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'll be listening, thanks.

[SPEAKER_06]: Now, the three bucket strategy, three bucket retirement strategy is a way to, well, it's a way to smooth withdrawals, right?

[SPEAKER_06]: So you take your assets and you segregate them into three different buckets.

[SPEAKER_06]: What is your short-term needs, right?

[SPEAKER_06]: Your cash, your money market, your tea bills, your short-term bonds.

[SPEAKER_06]: Then I was fun to your living expenses.

[SPEAKER_06]: It helps you avoid selling your investments during your downturn.

[SPEAKER_06]: Second bucket is your medium term income.

[SPEAKER_06]: Your intermediate bonds, your dividend stocks, your CDs.

[SPEAKER_06]: And it's designed to replenish bucket one and provide stability as well as regular income.

[SPEAKER_06]: Though there's bucket three, your long term growth.

[SPEAKER_06]: 10 years plus, your equities, your reads, your alternatives.

[SPEAKER_06]: It's a big growth engine to help you outpace inflation and a refill bucket's one and two over time.

[SPEAKER_06]: Now, like I said, this helps us smooth withdrawals.

[SPEAKER_06]: It helps to reduce a lot of sequencing risk.

[SPEAKER_06]: And it helps to give some psychological comfort it matches your investment horizons to your spending needs.

[SPEAKER_06]: I think this is a great way to go about constructing your financial life.

[SPEAKER_06]: It is one of many tools that can be very helpful and certainly for a lot of people, I would recommend.

[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_04]: Hey Justin, look, love your show.

[SPEAKER_04]: I have a question for you guys about where you think CD rates are headed over the next

[SPEAKER_04]: I need to lock some money up and I'm wondering if I should lock it up at the current four-year rate or if I should go shorter and then renew, down the line, any help with this would be great.

[SPEAKER_11]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_11]: Well remember the market prices in including the CD market, it prices in fed rate cuts and where what yield you're going to get.

[SPEAKER_11]: So it's less about is the fed going to cut and it's more about what the market is

[SPEAKER_11]: and whether that's real or not.

[SPEAKER_11]: For example, if you go out, I'll go out to October of 2027.

[SPEAKER_11]: The median outcome here is somewhere between, right about 3%, we'll call it 3%, is where the market's expecting Fed Fund rates to go.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, the current effective fund rate is 3.88%.

[SPEAKER_11]: So we're gonna call it four rate cuts

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, is that going to be true?

[SPEAKER_11]: And it never has to stay there, because that's where it's expected to end at that rate.

[SPEAKER_11]: You could see, I'm cutting rates, and then raising rates, then dropping rates again, or whatever, right?

[SPEAKER_11]: But over four years, or in this case, to 2027, nearly, that's called two years out,

[SPEAKER_11]: I would expect rates to fall and then go back up as I expect a rate hiking cycle at some time between now and the end of 2027.

[SPEAKER_11]: So it's really going to be about the yields curve and how it moves.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, when I go four years probably not, I would probably go somewhere

[SPEAKER_11]: level so that you're able to refinance or reinvest to, we say, and get liquidity, you're not missing out on a whole lot.

[SPEAKER_11]: You're not going to pick up a lot more yield than I think from a four year CD versus a 18 month CD or a two year CD.

[SPEAKER_11]: Okay, and that's the way I would be thinking about it is how much are you willing to give out for that liquidity?

[SPEAKER_11]: I'd be willing to give up a decent amount of yield to get that.

[SPEAKER_11]: Yeah, I really want to know what that rate is before I would truly commit, but I would probably only lock it up for 18 months or two.

[SPEAKER_12]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on at vestalk.com.

[SPEAKER_08]: My question today is about HIV, equipment, services,

[SPEAKER_12]: And, for our podcast subscribers, if you're willing to take the risk in Vestock, if you're okay with that risk, with host and financial advisor, Justin Klein, and that volatility.

[SPEAKER_12]: Go for it.

[SPEAKER_12]: And go host and portfolio manager, Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_12]: Is this company's fall in like a rock?

[SPEAKER_12]: It's down 52% in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_12]: Every body wants a secure, financial future.

[SPEAKER_12]: Richard, you have a question about TOL, but getting there takes strategy, discipline, and the right information.

[SPEAKER_11]: What are what you think of the price of it?

[SPEAKER_11]: Go to Chris in Maine, looking at I.E.X.

[SPEAKER_05]: Hey Justin, I own it, just seeing what you thought of it.

[SPEAKER_12]: Invest talk is made better by listener contributions.

[SPEAKER_12]: So don't forget to call 888-99-Charct.

[SPEAKER_05]: Hi, Justin and Luke.

[SPEAKER_05]: This is Mad and Miami.

[SPEAKER_05]: I'm just calling in regards to a question about taxes.

[SPEAKER_05]: I recently realized this past year that I overpaid my taxes considerably.

[SPEAKER_05]: And have recently changed my holding from the W4 to the exempts stop taking out taxes.

[SPEAKER_05]: But it's made me realize that in the past, maybe I've been given a government and interest rate loan by getting a tax refund every year.

[SPEAKER_05]: So I was thinking about changing my future tax allocation to the next year to be exempt and just keeping that money and a high yield savings account I'm a pretty disciplined investor so I wouldn't be worried about spending it or not having enough money to pay off my tax at the end of the year.

[SPEAKER_05]: I'm married, but I've filed separately from my wife and I don't have any kids who look forward to hearing your thoughts in the podcast if there's any pros or cons to this.

[SPEAKER_11]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_11]: Something, I think a lot of people have thought about over the years and I think the answer is there's a balance here.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think you're trying to go completely the other way.

[SPEAKER_11]: You paid too much and you gave the government an HTTP loan and you don't want to do that.

[SPEAKER_11]: But you also don't want to pay nothing and they get penalized because the IRS will penalize

[SPEAKER_11]: not paying a reasonable amount towards what you probably owe.

[SPEAKER_11]: So I think a CPM on a CPA, but I do know that, and it's something that you should probably speak to a tax advisor about and to make a final decision.

[SPEAKER_11]: But I always try to make it so it's

[SPEAKER_11]: I don't have a huge refund or a lot because when you owe a lot, once again, I've been penalized where I underpaid and do my quarterly things like that and I was penalized because pay my taxes just like paid them kind of at the end and IRS doesn't like that.

[SPEAKER_11]: So make sure that you find a balance.

[SPEAKER_11]: I wouldn't go exempt.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'd probably still claim one or two and...

[SPEAKER_11]: get it to a point where you're not giving it them an inch free loan as well as you're not getting penalized.

[SPEAKER_12]: Thanks for calling.

[SPEAKER_12]: You are listening to an invest talk best of caller questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_12]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_12]: Call anytime 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_12]: That's 88899 CHART.

[SPEAKER_12]: You are listening to an invest talk, Vest of Caller Questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_12]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_12]: Call anytime, 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_12]: That's 88899 CHART.

[SPEAKER_11]: Those of you that can live called Jared from Halifax, Canada, wants to talk about oil field service companies.

[SPEAKER_02]: Alright Justin, thanks for taking my call.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'd like to talk about oil field services, just with everything that's going on in Venezuela, on Monday at Market Open, I took some small positions in Caliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford, just wondering if any of those names like stand out for you and or if it's kind of too early to say whether these companies would see some tailwinds for kind of rebuilding the oil infrastructure in Latin America.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think it's far too soon to really tell and frankly, I think the assumption that this is going to ego smoothly and be that these companies are going to willingly put in billions of dollars to improve extraction volumes in Venezuela.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think both of those are assumed way too much.

[SPEAKER_11]: You know, how much will there be unrest in Venezuela over time because of this history of our regime change operations globally, usually creates problems in that country?

[SPEAKER_11]: And then there's a reason why these

[SPEAKER_11]: big, big oil names have not invested heavily because of obviously policies there, but certainly a big part of it too is the instability and the fact that these are kind of like oil sands.

[SPEAKER_11]: They're very similar to Canadian oil, whereas very heavy and it's also very expensive to get out of the ground.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so the break even rates for a lot of these projects aren't

[SPEAKER_11]: low.

[SPEAKER_11]: You know, what was a lot of these oil companies really love are your traditional oil wells, not your oil sands, not your

[SPEAKER_11]: shale oil.

[SPEAKER_11]: They would love to just these easy ones that bring crude easily to the surface, you don't have to crack rock, you don't have to do a bunch of things, and the break even levels are a lot lower on those type of projects.

[SPEAKER_11]: These are very expensive and you add on that once again the geopolitical risk to say that they're going to start spending billions on extraction.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think

[SPEAKER_11]: is not correct.

[SPEAKER_11]: I would not be trying to chase these names, especially after this move.

[SPEAKER_11]: Okay, thank you.

[SPEAKER_11]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_11]: Let's keep things moving in tackle another listener question from eight to eight ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_11]: Hey, I'm this talk.

[SPEAKER_07]: This is Kevin calling from Southern California.

[SPEAKER_07]: Today I have a kind of a strange retirement question.

[SPEAKER_07]: It's theoretical.

[SPEAKER_07]: If you had like a ten million dollar IRA and you wanted to do a full account Roth conversion,

[SPEAKER_07]: would be worth moving to for a year and making that your your primary residence to do this full Roth conversion where you save enough on taxes, state taxes where this might be worth it.

[SPEAKER_07]: This always has retirement thoughts on my mind.

[SPEAKER_07]: I appreciate your input.

[SPEAKER_07]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_11]: Great question.

[SPEAKER_11]: And the simple answer is, yeah, there are many states that believe there's seven or eight states that are completely tax-free that you have to establish residency if you're coming from California.

[SPEAKER_11]: They scrutinize you pretty good to make sure that you really are moving.

[SPEAKER_11]: You're not kind of scurting the rules.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, if you're a lowering come earner, they're probably not gonna chase you, but if you're high and come earner, they probably will.

[SPEAKER_11]: So you have to be careful with that.

[SPEAKER_11]: Also, remember,

[SPEAKER_11]: If you convert your entire account, that's going to hit your just a gross income on the federal level no matter where you live.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so most likely and for most people, very few people, especially they have a large IRA, they're not going to do it a conversion all in one year.

[SPEAKER_11]: Remember, you don't have to do that.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's not like you have to convert every dollar from an IRA to a Roth, if you're going to do a Roth conversion.

[SPEAKER_11]: You can just do a little bit of each year.

[SPEAKER_11]: And frankly, for the vast majority of people, there's a certain amount that keeps them below the next tax bracket for them to do that conversion each year and slowly over time, they convert most if not all of their IRAs who are Roth.

[SPEAKER_11]: And if it gets a goal, everybody should have.

[SPEAKER_11]: And creating a plan is very important, whether you do that, whether you talk in a visor like me, to help with that, whatever it is, everyone should have an idea of when they're going to convert their IRA to a Roth IRA, or a Medicaid to a Roth IRA, etc.

[SPEAKER_11]: So I like what you're thinking of, but this is more, this would have to be more of a longer-term plan.

[SPEAKER_11]: Hey, I'm gonna move to Nevada state tax free.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm going to live there for five years.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm gonna break it up over five years and I'm going to lock in the lower tax rate, both in a state level and a federal level, et cetera, and then maybe you can move on from there.

[SPEAKER_11]: But,

[SPEAKER_11]: make sure that you consult with the tax, the license tax, the attorney, or CPA before you do something like this and make sure you build a bigger picture plan.

[SPEAKER_11]: Uh, so many people are myopic and they just focus on one particular aspect of financial planning without looking at the big picture for us.

[SPEAKER_11]: Our clients, we use Orion.

[SPEAKER_11]: There are a lot of different options out there, uh, from E money to, you know, other planning softwares.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think everybody should run through that to understand from a tax perspective, a strategy perspective, uh, model out the cash flows, uh, both

[SPEAKER_11]: income, and expenses, and assets, and liabilities, all of this should be modeled out, not just the snapshot of today, but going up into the future decades.

[SPEAKER_11]: And that is when you can make informed decisions about when you should do things like Rothconversion.

[SPEAKER_11]: So, hopefully that gave you some perspective on how to think and once again, make sure you aren't my topic and just think, I want to focus on just Rothconversion.

[SPEAKER_11]: That was part of the

[SPEAKER_12]: This is an invest talk best of caller questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_12]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_12]: Call anytime 88899 chart that's 88899 CHART.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is a special in Vest Talk, best of caller questions, compilation program.

[SPEAKER_13]: Remember, the Invest Talk phone lines never close.

[SPEAKER_13]: Please call with questions.

[SPEAKER_13]: 888, 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_16]: Hi, don't get from New York.

[SPEAKER_16]: Thank you for all that you do.

[SPEAKER_16]: I'm trying to do the best I can to learn a little bit on how to short a stock.

[SPEAKER_16]: I'm looking at stock ticker, Vera, V-E-R-A, Vera, their butics.

[SPEAKER_16]: The way that I'm looking to learn how to short a stock is the following.

[SPEAKER_16]: I am using three sources of research.

[SPEAKER_16]: Finn Viz, the stock screener, fidelity.com to actually look at the specifics of the stock.

[SPEAKER_16]: And I'm also using Gemini that actually helps me explain certain terminology.

[SPEAKER_16]: But for the stock screener, I'm looking just for a mid cap short float over 10% a relative volume over one.

[SPEAKER_16]: I'm also looking for fundamentals of a PS.

[SPEAKER_16]: ratio of over five, return on equity, negative, a debt to equity over like point one, and return on vested capital, negative one.

[SPEAKER_16]: And in terms of just the technical analysis, I'm looking for a relative strike index of like very high over bought.

[SPEAKER_16]: Just looking to see what you guys think and what are some other fundamentals or technical signs that I should be basically looking for a float,

[SPEAKER_16]: I hope I did, you know, the right research or use the right resources.

[SPEAKER_16]: So thank you very much and have a good night.

[SPEAKER_16]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_11]: Well, glad you're utilizing a lot of resources that are out there.

[SPEAKER_11]: The problem is understanding how to apply some of these concepts.

[SPEAKER_11]: So I'll give you the two biggest flaws in the way you are looking for a short candidate.

[SPEAKER_11]: Number one is you're looking for a company that was a high short interest.

[SPEAKER_11]: can give you a sense of how many other people are also betting against it.

[SPEAKER_11]: It also at least in the short term creates a lot of risk of a short squeeze because you're not the only one out there that you're going to be forced to buy it if it continues to rally.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so having high short interest is fuel for a short squeeze and a lot of times

[SPEAKER_11]: people can't handle that volatility when you're short, and it goes up, that's volatility.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's effectively like a stock going down if you own it, right?

[SPEAKER_11]: So, I actually want low short interest.

[SPEAKER_11]: You want to find names that other people aren't really paying attention to.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, I like the fact that you're looking at a biotech name, you're looking at a name with negative,

[SPEAKER_11]: return equity, return assets, burning capital, et cetera, treating a high price of sales, meaning it's overvalued.

[SPEAKER_11]: But in the biotech space, it's all about a story and whether a story is gaining momentum or not.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so I'm not sure about this particular

[SPEAKER_11]: technology that they utilize or not, but I wouldn't be jumping on this, especially when that last part, which is you talked about relative strength, very high and very high relative strength can mean it's over bot, but that doesn't mean you want to short it.

[SPEAKER_11]: Over bot just means that hey, it probably needs to be cool off a little bit.

[SPEAKER_11]: It needs to consolidate before that next leg

[SPEAKER_11]: whether it's gonna go down and roll over anytime soon.

[SPEAKER_11]: Stocks that over bot tend to stay over bot, tend to be in an uptrend and stay in an uptrend, and the trend is your friend.

[SPEAKER_11]: What you wanna do, actually, is wait till the stock is in a downtrend.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's a much better stock to short.

[SPEAKER_11]: Why?

[SPEAKER_11]: Because the market is recognizing the problems with their business.

[SPEAKER_11]: And whether a stock goes from 100 to zero or $10 to zero,

[SPEAKER_11]: If you short the same dollar amount, you're making the same amount of money.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's irrelevant what the stock is trading for as long as it continues to go down.

[SPEAKER_11]: But in your case, you're looking to stock that's going up and this is fair that there are putables, there are putables, world strength is 94.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's in an uptrend, it's right near if it's too big high.

[SPEAKER_11]: I don't want to be jumping in front of this, even though you're ready, it's a story stock.

[SPEAKER_11]: I don't like those names.

[SPEAKER_11]: I don't want to invest in those names, but momentum is momentum and you have to respect that.

[SPEAKER_11]: There's a saying in the shorting industry, shall we say, which is, don't try to wrestle the Jaguar out of the tree.

[SPEAKER_11]: Wait till it's out of the tree.

[SPEAKER_11]: You're not going to wrestle it out of the tree.

[SPEAKER_11]: So wait for this to roll over.

[SPEAKER_11]: You want to be looking at names that have terrible relative strength and that people are losing faith in the business all together.

[SPEAKER_11]: And then it's headed for zero.

[SPEAKER_11]: So that's also what you want when you're shorting a stock.

[SPEAKER_11]: The look for names with high debt, more than anything.

[SPEAKER_11]: I would want to show a name with high debt versus high prices sales, high valuation, etc.

[SPEAKER_11]: I want a lot of debt, I want a crappy business, I want them to downtrend.

[SPEAKER_11]: Those are the names that you want short.

[SPEAKER_13]: Invest talk is ready 24-7 for your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm hoping you'll give me your cake on or Matt Technologies ORA.

[SPEAKER_08]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest in the better stock?

[SPEAKER_13]: Don't forget to call, in Best Talk, 888-99, chart.

[SPEAKER_15]: Hi, my name is Joe from Greenfield South Carolina.

[SPEAKER_15]: I have a question that's a little bit more macro.

[SPEAKER_15]: Just as our currency as a country has gotten into this VR currency with no real backing, it seems like the sad and the government, when they don't feel like they can raise taxes, just print the money, which is ultimately devaluing our currency over time, and there doesn't seem to be any indication that they're going to stop doing that.

[SPEAKER_15]: They're likely going to do that more and more into the future.

[SPEAKER_15]: What do you think a good safe haven for that would be in the long term?

[SPEAKER_15]: I'm in my 30s and just, I guess, somewhat worried about somewhat bigger collapse of the system, just the value of the dollar in general.

[SPEAKER_15]: Is stocks a good place to be in the event of something like that happening?

[SPEAKER_15]: Is gold and silver a good place to be in the event of something?

[SPEAKER_15]: like that happening is land, good thing to be in in the event of something like that happening.

[SPEAKER_15]: I'm just trying to wonder, trying to figure out a plan, I guess, for something like that were to happen, because it seems like our currency is just devalued year after year, and I just don't see any change in that coming.

[SPEAKER_15]: Thanks so much for your answer on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_11]: This is the winner of Best Question of 2025, because this is the framing every single investor out there should be thinking about.

[SPEAKER_11]: Not, oh, I'm just going to index, right?

[SPEAKER_11]: That's not the new world, the new world is this with this college just asked about.

[SPEAKER_11]: Yes, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_11]: The politicians, on both sides of the aisle, and you can see it right now, right?

[SPEAKER_11]: The Trump ran on Doge and cutting spending.

[SPEAKER_11]: He cut like $7 billion, $9 billion, nothing.

[SPEAKER_11]: So, nothing stops this train.

[SPEAKER_11]: You're right.

[SPEAKER_11]: So, you have to think about it differently.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, it's gold and silver.

[SPEAKER_11]: Part of it?

[SPEAKER_11]: Yes, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_11]: Everybody, everybody, everybody, have been saying this for years now because I've seen this.

[SPEAKER_11]: You know, you, you can talk about, oh, how you want the world to be.

[SPEAKER_11]: And I talk about this all the time.

[SPEAKER_11]: Never invest how you want the world to be.

[SPEAKER_11]: You have to invest based on how the world is.

[SPEAKER_11]: And you're identifying it.

[SPEAKER_11]: That this is a train that does not stop.

[SPEAKER_11]: and will not stop and so you have to adjust your portfolio accordingly.

[SPEAKER_11]: So number one, yes, go and silver.

[SPEAKER_11]: Number two, harder assets are our stocks a good place.

[SPEAKER_11]: They tend to be a good place to invest.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, harder assets tend to do better in inflationary environments and those are can be companies that hold an own harder assets.

[SPEAKER_11]: They tend to not be growthier type of businesses either.

[SPEAKER_11]: They tend to be more valuable.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's how tends to work.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now,

[SPEAKER_11]: Depends on the year and it's not a straight line, but this is the new era that you are operating in.

[SPEAKER_11]: You don't want to be in treasuries, super low risk investments.

[SPEAKER_11]: You know, most people are still scarred by O.A.

[SPEAKER_11]: and everyone fights the last or remember the generals fight the last war.

[SPEAKER_11]: Most people are fighting O.A.

[SPEAKER_11]: Because that's the real big war.

[SPEAKER_11]: Yeah, we had COVID and all that.

[SPEAKER_11]: But still, that's fresh.

[SPEAKER_11]: And a lot of people's might, even though it's nearly two decades ago.

[SPEAKER_11]: It shows you that the risk in this market is not deflation.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's what it was.

[SPEAKER_11]: The deflationary impulse.

[SPEAKER_11]: We are seeing that the risk to the, as to the upside, they're just inflation inflationary impulse.

[SPEAKER_11]: And remember, markets are not priced in real terms, meaning subtracting out inflation.

[SPEAKER_11]: They're priced nominally.

[SPEAKER_11]: So, I think it was over from 1962 to 1982.

[SPEAKER_11]: Equity markers are up, but in real terms, your return was zero.

[SPEAKER_11]: because you subtract that inflation and you kept up with perching power.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so I think there's probably a period of the next 20, 30 years and extended period where you're going to see that where if you just invest in the S&P, your real return is going to be zero, maybe even negative.

[SPEAKER_11]: So yes, you have to rethink your portfolio strategy.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's what we do for our clients at KPP and that's what we really speak about and adjust our portfolio accordingly.

[SPEAKER_11]: hope that helps.

[SPEAKER_11]: There's a lot more I could go in death probably hours for this.

[SPEAKER_11]: Those who are back to the Vestock Voice being for a call that came in earlier from me.

[SPEAKER_14]: Hi, this is Andrew from Maine, and I had a question for Justin.

[SPEAKER_14]: He often talks about the importance of liquidity in the macroeconomic view when it comes to short to medium term broad market performance, particularly on risk assets, and I'm wondering

[SPEAKER_14]: you look at to monitor liquidity in the macro view.

[SPEAKER_14]: Well, listen for your answer on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_11]: Great question.

[SPEAKER_11]: And if you watch my video, I pretty much do every single weekend on our YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_11]: I answer these questions.

[SPEAKER_11]: What's going on with liquidity?

[SPEAKER_11]: What's going on with the markers of a healthy or not healthy market?

[SPEAKER_11]: So there are some that are kind of liquidity proxies.

[SPEAKER_11]: Bitcoin is good example of that.

[SPEAKER_11]: That tends to be the outskirts of the financial system.

[SPEAKER_11]: And when that tends to weaken, well,

[SPEAKER_11]: That means liquidity is generally getting tighter.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's where money kind of flows out of to plug the holes.

[SPEAKER_11]: Let's say we say in the in triad fire, right?

[SPEAKER_11]: And then that industry.

[SPEAKER_11]: So certainly Bitcoin is one aspect there.

[SPEAKER_11]: Another which is underappreciated is commercial bank lending.

[SPEAKER_11]: And this is right now probably the best indicator.

[SPEAKER_11]: of decent liquidity, a lot of others are actually looking worse and I'll talk about those in a second.

[SPEAKER_11]: But if you look at the growth in bank credit, it was consolidating at about 4.5% year-over-year for most of the summer and into the fall and now its rigs is accelerated now up to 5.36% year-over-year.

[SPEAKER_11]: So remember, when banks are lending, they're creating dollars.

[SPEAKER_11]: Commercial banks are the ones that create the most dollars in the system.

[SPEAKER_11]: Hands down, bar none.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's not the Fed, it's not the Treasury, it's commercial banks.

[SPEAKER_11]: But they're lending more, it's more dollars in the system.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's more liquidity when they're lending less, opposite happens.

[SPEAKER_11]: So that's number one.

[SPEAKER_11]: And that is the best sign to discuss it right now.

[SPEAKER_11]: Then you look at things like the Treasury General account.

[SPEAKER_11]: And this has been rising pretty rapidly.

[SPEAKER_11]: Recently, and this has been a big draw on liquidity really since August.

[SPEAKER_11]: where the treasury general account went from about 300 billion to a high recently around 957 billion.

[SPEAKER_11]: And the target by year and is 850 billion.

[SPEAKER_11]: So they could draw that down, but when this rises, that is money being pulled out of the system.

[SPEAKER_11]: Those are dollars being pulled out of the financial system and onto the treasuries.

[SPEAKER_11]: Balance sheet.

[SPEAKER_11]: Those are a few examples.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now I can go on and on.

[SPEAKER_11]: talking about a lot on my Saturday video, but I encourage you to tune in there.

[SPEAKER_11]: But those are a few examples of things that I follow to see, liquidity good, is it bad, is it getting better, is it getting worse?

[SPEAKER_11]: On the margins, it's getting a little bit worse.

[SPEAKER_11]: Once again, see that Bitcoin.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now is it dire?

[SPEAKER_11]: No, there's a shape, everything shades a great.

[SPEAKER_11]: A lot of people, that's probably the hardest thing for the average person to get their head around, is that the world does not black and white.

[SPEAKER_11]: Especially when you look at, you know, look at our politics, right?

[SPEAKER_11]: So you're left to your right.

[SPEAKER_11]: Well, the reality is most people are kind of in the middle.

[SPEAKER_11]: And the reality is that in the markets, they're shades of gray.

[SPEAKER_11]: Sometimes it gets a little better, sometimes it gets a little worse.

[SPEAKER_11]: Sometimes yes, things are really bad, but those are few and far between.

[SPEAKER_11]: The nice things are really good.

[SPEAKER_11]: You can far between.

[SPEAKER_11]: There's nuance here.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so following the data helps give you that nuance.

[SPEAKER_11]: We've given you the nuance.

[SPEAKER_11]: And that's what I tend to know, Pack of Weekends.

[SPEAKER_11]: Hope that helps.

[SPEAKER_06]: It's keeping's rolling.

[SPEAKER_06]: And answer another color question now.

[SPEAKER_15]: I'm calling from San Bernardino, California.

[SPEAKER_15]: I'm wondering what it means to monetize the data.

[SPEAKER_15]: And is that something I can use?

[SPEAKER_15]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_06]: Okay, doke, what does monetizing the debt mean?

[SPEAKER_06]: Because I think that's something that we have mentioned on this show, often, right?

[SPEAKER_06]: Government monetizes its debt when it finances it by having its central bank essentially create money to buy government bonds effectively turning debt into newly created money.

[SPEAKER_06]: What it can do over time is it can keep interest rates lower, it can make funding a bit

[SPEAKER_06]: as well as currency weakness.

[SPEAKER_06]: Now, can you monetize your debt well?

[SPEAKER_06]: If you are issuing debt and printing money, then you're probably breaking the law.

[SPEAKER_06]: You're definitely breaking the law.

[SPEAKER_06]: So the answer is no.

[SPEAKER_06]: Only governments with a central bank like the US Treasury Federal Reserve can monetize their debt.

[SPEAKER_06]: So, if you find yourself in a position where debt is becoming a burden, think less about monetization, what you can't do, and think more about managing it smartly, which you should.

[SPEAKER_13]: Invest talk is ready 24-7 for your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_13]: My five-year-old son and I listen to your podcast every night, so thank you very much for putting it on.

[SPEAKER_13]: Justin Klein is here and ready to tackle your questions.

[SPEAKER_08]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a raw IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest in the better stock?

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm wondering what you thought about this read is it would be a good time to get in?

[SPEAKER_17]: I wanted to pick your brain about Apple, what did you think about their earnings call?

[SPEAKER_17]: Is this a good time to ask for my position?

[SPEAKER_13]: Don't forget to call in Vestock, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_11]: Let's go back to David in New Hampshire while it's talking about international exposure.

[SPEAKER_17]: I think we have to add some more international exposure to my portfolio.

[SPEAKER_17]: I have some emerging markets already, so I'm looking at developed markets.

[SPEAKER_17]: And my question is, should I purchase an ETF that includes Canada?

[SPEAKER_17]: Or is that essentially, like, those companies can attract very closely to what's going on in the United States?

[SPEAKER_11]: No, I think that there's no reason to exclude Canada.

[SPEAKER_11]: Businesses are very different.

[SPEAKER_11]: Just think of what are the large domestic corporations you're talking about, heavily tech.

[SPEAKER_11]: Persis, Canada is going to be more oil, utilities, industrials, banks, telecom.

[SPEAKER_11]: companies like that.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm just thinking of the regular Canadian companies that I encounter.

[SPEAKER_11]: Mining companies, you'll get exposure to those as well, natural resource names.

[SPEAKER_11]: And some of those sectors I really like, like natural resources.

[SPEAKER_11]: And as I've talked about earlier, natural gas.

[SPEAKER_11]: But I was not so much.

[SPEAKER_11]: So you're definitely getting more diversity.

[SPEAKER_11]: You're getting access to some very quality names, especially

[SPEAKER_11]: Golden Silver, things like that.

[SPEAKER_11]: So I see no reason to exclude Canada because it's definitely going to give you a different exposure than you're going to get domestic thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_12]: You are listening to an invest talk, best of call or questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_12]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_12]: Call anytime, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_12]: That's 888-99-CH-A-R-T.

[SPEAKER_12]: This is an Invest talk best of caller questions compilation program.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Good evening the stock when writing options.

[SPEAKER_03]: I've found a few companies that are a bit successful for a month after a month at least for the past year.

[SPEAKER_03]: And my question is about capital gains, if I choose to roll those options into the next month, and then after that then in the next for over a year.

[SPEAKER_03]: and then finally close out of those positions with those be considered long-term or short-term capital gains.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, since I've rolled them for over a year, I'll list on the podcast and thanks as always to Gary Bye.

[SPEAKER_11]: They would be short-term capital gains.

[SPEAKER_11]: Doesn't matter if you're rolling it, each option technically is its own trade, even though it might be in the same position.

[SPEAKER_11]: But the features of those options, expiration, strike price, et cetera, they're all different.

[SPEAKER_11]: And that means each one has its own QCIP, as its own code that makes them different.

[SPEAKER_11]: And so you're not holding something for over a year.

[SPEAKER_11]: So it's definitely going to be a short-term capital gains.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's one of the drawbacks there of selling options.

[SPEAKER_11]: So I like to sell options in tax deferred accounts.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm going to.

[SPEAKER_11]: And that helps bring in

[SPEAKER_11]: Incoming to the portfolio without the tax implications because it's all about when you take that money out, then you will pay tax.

[SPEAKER_11]: But in the meantime, it's why we like cover call strategies, especially in IRAs, Roth IRAs, attends to be a good place for a covered call strategy.

[SPEAKER_11]: So good question.

[SPEAKER_11]: But remember those are all separate positions.

[SPEAKER_10]: Good afternoon, gentlemen.

[SPEAKER_10]: This is a mark calling from Santa Cruz.

[SPEAKER_10]: First of all, thank you for the daily addiction of Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_10]: I've been totally hooked for years.

[SPEAKER_10]: I have a question, if you could explain please a little bit about what covered call ETFs are, how they work.

[SPEAKER_10]: Are they cyclical?

[SPEAKER_10]: Would you recommend them for retirees to help out with additional income?

[SPEAKER_10]: Again, thank you guys very much for all that you do.

[SPEAKER_10]: And I'm looking forward to your answer.

[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_11]: This is a great question.

[SPEAKER_11]: I love this because this is a hot space and most of the time when the retail investor gets excited about new products that's pitched by Wall Street.

[SPEAKER_11]: They're duped in many ways.

[SPEAKER_11]: Not to say they're duped in that they're going to lose money, but they really don't understand what they're buying because these fun companies in Wall Street, they're good at spinning the narrative, spinning the story.

[SPEAKER_11]: I think the SEC needs to change the way that these are really classified and the way that the marketing is done.

[SPEAKER_11]: Unfortunately, SEC, they've been asleep at the wheel for a long time now.

[SPEAKER_11]: But the simple answer is, it's fool's gold.

[SPEAKER_11]: You're not getting the yield that it says you're getting.

[SPEAKER_11]: Because what's happening here is they're running cover call strategy a lot of time we're doing on an index and that's a simple process.

[SPEAKER_11]: We run a cover call strategy and I don't have anything against a covered call strategy in general.

[SPEAKER_11]: What I do have a problem with is that is anyone saying a cover call strategy is giving huge yield.

[SPEAKER_11]: Now, we talked to our clients and we say it's bringing in income, but it's countered with giving up potential upside.

[SPEAKER_11]: And that's what most investors are not understanding here.

[SPEAKER_11]: Is that yes, you're bringing in extra income and in down markets, it definitely hedges against the downside in ho-hum markets.

[SPEAKER_11]: You can do much better than the broader indices, because you're bringing in income and those that are buying the call options are losing out

[SPEAKER_11]: So it's really more of a what I call a fall dampener.

[SPEAKER_11]: It lowers the volatility of the underlying investment.

[SPEAKER_11]: And the underlying investment is whatever that is.

[SPEAKER_11]: We didn't ask that 100, the S&P could be a mix of stocks, whatever that is.

[SPEAKER_11]: what you don't want to do is think that, oh, it says it's getting some big yield, for example, one that we benchmark a lot of our strategy to is the JAPI, the JP Morgan equity premium income fund.

[SPEAKER_11]: And it will say that the SEC yield is seven and a quarter, traveling to a month yield is eight percent, and the reality is that's not really true.

[SPEAKER_11]: If you go look at the total return, that's what you want to do with these names.

[SPEAKER_11]: Do not

[SPEAKER_11]: to what the quote unquote yield is.

[SPEAKER_11]: It is functionally irrelevant for these names.

[SPEAKER_11]: What you want to focus on is the performance.

[SPEAKER_11]: What is the total return that you are getting from these names?

[SPEAKER_11]: And JPI this year is up seven and a quarter per cent.

[SPEAKER_11]: So effectively, it's year-to-date return is somewhere around what it's quote unquote SEC yield is.

[SPEAKER_11]: So, you know, you're getting that yield, but you're also subject to the downside of the markets as well.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's a conhege, but that's about it.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's a ball dampener.

[SPEAKER_11]: That's it.

[SPEAKER_11]: So, when you're looking at these, I remember calling it, you have to put whatever that is.

[SPEAKER_11]: There's a lot of them out there.

[SPEAKER_11]: I don't want to dig into each one.

[SPEAKER_11]: Understand, ignore the yield, focus on the total return.

[SPEAKER_11]: If you're comfortable with the total return, you're comfortable with that lower volatility that you have a little bit less in the upside as well as maybe potentially a lot less on the downside than it might be right for you.

[SPEAKER_11]: But don't think of it as this surefire yield producer.

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[SPEAKER_13]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them.

[SPEAKER_13]: Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be investment advice.

[SPEAKER_13]: or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.

[SPEAKER_13]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review of perspectives before investing.

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