[SPEAKER_03]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

[SPEAKER_03]: Here is KPP Financial Portfolio Manager, Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_09]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to another episode of Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm Lou Guerrero and I'll be with you on this Monday, January 26th, 2026.

[SPEAKER_09]: I know it's been a while since you've heard my voice been off for the past couple weeks.

[SPEAKER_09]: But guess what, I am ready to hit the ground running.

[SPEAKER_09]: Be back here with you answer your finance and investment questions as we start to think about the end of the first month of the new year.

[SPEAKER_09]: And certainly there has been a lot of the past three weeks that is likely to shape markets moving forward.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so we hear it in Vestock think we hope.

[SPEAKER_09]: that each and every day we make one step towards accomplishing our mission to help make you a better, more informed investor.

[SPEAKER_09]: As always, we'll have a mixture of educational and actionable material to go over today, but you have a key role in this show as well through your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_09]: You help steer our conversation.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, just a bit, we'll talk about today's market performance and run down those show topics.

[SPEAKER_09]: But first, let's tackle this color question now.

[SPEAKER_05]: I'm calling for Massachusetts.

[SPEAKER_05]: I love to show, and thank you for all you do.

[SPEAKER_05]: I want to take a look at the ticker symbol, M-O-S, the M-O-S, the M-O-Z-A company.

[SPEAKER_05]: I like the fertilizers, fields, and I think this a nice, safe area to be in right now.

[SPEAKER_05]: If you give me your video on the stock, I'd appreciate it.

[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you very much, Brian.

[SPEAKER_09]: Tigger M-O-S is the mosaic company and is a major US based fertilizer producer, so what they do is they focus on phosphate and potash crop nutrients that are used in agriculture across the globe.

[SPEAKER_09]: In fact, it's one of the largest supplier of these essential fertilizers over not just the US, but internationally as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, valuation looks to be relatively low compared to the industry as a whole.

[SPEAKER_09]: And certainly, you know, a bit lower than they're high over the past five years, priced for looking or anything, sitting at about 12.3, the average is nine, the highest 17.9.

[SPEAKER_09]: So certainly a bit below that average over the past five years, revenue has been well, it's been all over the place.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you ignore,

[SPEAKER_09]: The annual number.

[SPEAKER_09]: What you'll see is that revenue is grown by 4.5% on an annual basis.

[SPEAKER_09]: Head about 8.6 billion in revenue in 2020.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's peak revenue over the past five years within 2022 when it was 19.1.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it has fallen all the way down to 11.1 last year, projected to have been about 12.1 going into December of 2025.

[SPEAKER_09]: And then, grow further to 12.5 billion the next year.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, what is really driven

[SPEAKER_09]: this company's price that frankly since 2023 is underperformed is less having to do with this company specifically you know it is a mid cap company about eleven billion dollar market cap not too much debt

[SPEAKER_09]: doesn't have a balance sheet that is worrisome in a way.

[SPEAKER_09]: But I mean in 2023 it was down 42% down 54% the next year.

[SPEAKER_09]: Don't 18% the year after that.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now it's about 16.1% coming off of really some lows going back all the way to 2020.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so what's driven that?

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, bit of investor positioning, yes.

[SPEAKER_09]: Recent quarterly earnings have beat, there's been improving margins, so that has sustained the optimism, the long-term price correlation really has been because of the global fertilizer demand.

[SPEAKER_09]: There is demand that has picked up a bit, meaning that there can be possibly higher pricing expectations in the near term.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so it really hasn't been

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, momentum is shifted, even though over the past three months they're down 5.5% it's up 17.6% year to date.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's only in 26 trading days.

[SPEAKER_09]: Is this a bigger shift that could lead to better price action, better pricing?

[SPEAKER_09]: Maybe.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, this is more of an expectation's game here.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have higher level expectations than they've had in quite some time.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's down 1.6% today.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's see if I can break out of this trend more sustainably before you start to allocate.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is the Mosaic Company, ticker, M-O-S.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: We got a lot of ground to cover in the next 45 minutes or so and we have a lot to talk about as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: The first thing we got is our main focus point, which concerns the silver industrial boom.

[SPEAKER_09]: Understandably, gold is getting the headline attention, but silver is quietly surging.

[SPEAKER_09]: Do do its industrial demand from solar panels and electronics.

[SPEAKER_09]: So we'll talk a little bit about the supply crunch that may be facing this metal in 2026.

[SPEAKER_09]: debt debt debt and how the world economy is hooked upon it, specifically government debt is something we'll be talking about as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: So those are the reasons why gold prices has absolutely surged recently about $5,000 an ounce, and should we have time at the end of the show we'll touch on US investment grade credit spreads, and how it's reaching its lowest level this century.

[SPEAKER_09]: We also have some voicement calls ready to play, including one on A on Inc and another on Greco Inc, Tiger GGG.

[SPEAKER_09]: So, while some questions that came in from the comments section of the Invest talk a YouTube channel, and of course, I welcome your finance and investment questions now or any time throughout the show.

[SPEAKER_09]: We're going into a break.

[SPEAKER_09]: Please remember, you can call any time and leave your questions on the Invest Talk Voice Bank.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you're listening to our live stream or possibly on AM1220 in the Bay Area, give me a call now at 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: Hang on, because when we get back, we'll talk about today's market activity.

[SPEAKER_09]: [♪ music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in background music playing in

[SPEAKER_08]: Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero of KPP Financial are ready to help.

[SPEAKER_08]: Have you heard about Parallel investing?

[SPEAKER_08]: That's where the firm's principles invest their own money in the exact same investment programs at the same price and percentages as their clients.

[SPEAKER_08]: parallel investing differentiates KPP financial because it aligns the interests of KPP principles with those of their clients as they each share the same risks and potential for success.

[SPEAKER_08]: Learn more anytime at investtalk.com just click on portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_08]: The Invest Talk phone lines are open waiting for your financial investment questions.

[SPEAKER_08]: 24-7, Rainer Shine.

[SPEAKER_08]: There's always value in the Invest Talk podcast.

[SPEAKER_08]: Hey, day, day, day, 99, chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: Hey, day, day, 99, chart is the number.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you want to get through to me alive, some time before this shows over, or if you just have a burning question, that you can't wait to get answered any time a day.

[SPEAKER_09]: But before we get some more questions, let's talk about the markets today.

[SPEAKER_09]: Overall, the Dow is up 64 basis points, S&P 500, up 50, NASDAQ was up 0.43% in the Russell 2000 down the opposite way, 36 basis points.

[SPEAKER_09]: Breaking down a little bit further, big tech, a little higher, the upside driven primarily by Apple's performance.

[SPEAKER_09]: Other performers included networking and communication names, software, semi-caps, refiners,

[SPEAKER_09]: Equipment and investment banks, underperformers included defenses, managed care, A&D steel, and chemicals.

[SPEAKER_09]: On the bottom side, treasury is a bit firmer.

[SPEAKER_09]: You did see some flattening across the curve.

[SPEAKER_09]: You'll down anywhere from two to three basis points.

[SPEAKER_09]: Primarily focused on the long end.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, the dollar index was off 60 basis points.

[SPEAKER_09]: A bit off of its worst levels, but still it's weakest clothes in four months.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Big FX story, though, the end, very strong.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm at some chatter on Wall Street that perhaps there's an intervention on the way.

[SPEAKER_09]: And with all this gold, surging.

[SPEAKER_09]: Once again, finished up 2.1% pushed above that $5,000 an ounce level.

[SPEAKER_09]: Silver, which we'll talk a little bit about later on.

[SPEAKER_09]: Settle up 14% logging.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's best single session since 1985.

[SPEAKER_09]: March of 1985, that is.

[SPEAKER_09]: Overall, stocks were higher.

[SPEAKER_09]: There was really no shortage of headline volatility.

[SPEAKER_09]: Start the week.

[SPEAKER_09]: You had headlines around trade, leaning hawkish with the president threatening 100% tariff on Canada.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have reports that European Union is a bit unsure how to move ahead with US trade deals after the continued confrontation around Greenland.

[SPEAKER_09]: You had rising odds of a government shutdown back and focus after a number of Senate Democrats.

[SPEAKER_09]: But at the same time, right, you have upside that continues to be driven by a resilient macro narrative by better positioning, by more reasonable valuations than we've seen in a bit by broadening trade, and most importantly, by still strong earnings despite disseleration from the prior to quarters.

[SPEAKER_09]: On the economic calendar, preliminary, November, durable goods orders rose 5.3% month over month on the headline ahead of the streets expectations for about 3 to 4% and certainly more than reversing October's 2.2% decline and core capital goods orders up 70 basis points ahead of the 20 basis point consensus and the prior number of 50 basis points.

[SPEAKER_09]: Looking ahead to the rest of the week, it looks like on Tuesday, we get the FHFA home prices index as well as consumer confidence.

[SPEAKER_09]: Wednesday, the big day, of course, the FOMC meeting, so as wholesale inventories, but if a Pat calendar on Thursday with initial claims, unit labor costs, productivity, SAAR, durable orders, and factory orders.

[SPEAKER_09]: And rounding out the week on a Friday, we'll see PPI and the Chicago PMI results.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's probably already know by now, we do also have content over there on the Investon YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you're interested to search Investon with two T's on YouTube and then I'll pop up with a lot of our content that is just more educational content.

[SPEAKER_09]: Sometimes we have repurposed, repackaged highlights of the show from that week.

[SPEAKER_09]: Sometimes we have learning sessions that are evergreen that you can always go and refer to.

[SPEAKER_09]: But why are you over there?

[SPEAKER_09]: You got a question?

[SPEAKER_09]: You can certainly leave it in the comment section of the Invest dog, YouTube channel rather than just running over, picking up your phone, and dialing that number that we all know.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, this question came in a couple days ago, and it says, what are your thoughts on CWEN, the steady dividend growth, and potential for growth in wind energy are appealing, but they do carry a large amount of debt.

[SPEAKER_09]: What would be a good entry point?

[SPEAKER_09]: We'll see W-E-N is clear water energy.

[SPEAKER_09]: It is a diversified portfolio of renewables, I think wind, solar energy storage, and conventional power generation assets in the United States mostly under-long term contracts.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so what it's trying to do is exactly what this view or salina Marie is hinting at, is provide that stability, stable, predictable cash flows.

[SPEAKER_09]: And dividend yield has been, for lack of a better word, pretty juicy over the past couple years.

[SPEAKER_09]: The average sits, well, around 4.9%.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's exactly where it is this year, but 2023, dividend yield 5.5, 2020, for its dividend yield was 6.3.

[SPEAKER_09]: And dividends have grown over time.

[SPEAKER_09]: There are multiple consecutive years of increases.

[SPEAKER_09]: So this really does appeal to somebody who is focusing on dividend, they have high dividend yields in the top quartile of US stocks, renewable energy, and contact growth has certainly been something beneficial for this company as well, expansion of their contracted renewables, thank large corporations like Google who are trying to buy more and more energy for their databases.

[SPEAKER_09]: They did beat earnings.

[SPEAKER_09]: That has certainly helped sense sentiment with this company as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's one of the reasons why it's up 39.96% over the past 52 weeks outperform the S&P 500 last year by 11.5%.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's take a look at that debt, $7.3 billion in debt on an $7.2 billion market cap company.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is certainly a lot of debt on its balance sheet.

[SPEAKER_09]: And when you start to see interest rates,

[SPEAKER_09]: E-utility sector valuations may be shifting, broader energy market trends that may be focused more on traditional sources of power rather than renewables.

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, what could happen here, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: It's valuation sitting at 36.6 times price to forward looking earnings.

[SPEAKER_09]: It is well above its average of 28, far from its low of 12.3, just slightly below its high of 46.

[SPEAKER_09]: So,

[SPEAKER_09]: This is one of the reasons why I say you can't just focus on yield to determine what you want to invest in, because the yield is great.

[SPEAKER_09]: But the valuation is a bit high on this name, especially given the overall trends in the industry.

[SPEAKER_09]: 75% plus is where it's payout ratio stands.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so could there be downward pressure on dividends?

[SPEAKER_09]: And therefore downward pressure on sentiment?

[SPEAKER_09]: Certainly, it is already in an industry where capital is incredibly expensive.

[SPEAKER_09]: Power generation assets are very capital-heavy, financing costs or policy shifts.

[SPEAKER_09]: IE, clean energy priorities.

[SPEAKER_09]: Certainly, this administration does not have that as one of their priorities.

[SPEAKER_09]: Can materially affect returns for companies like Clearwater Energy, or Clearway Energy, that is.

[SPEAKER_09]: So, for now, in spite of its dividend, and not because of its debt,

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, I mean, the dead is a problem, but in terms of where it's being, the amount that's being serviced is not as worrisome, more because of its valuation and because of overall trends in the industry, of for a clear way, energy, going to have to pass, thanks to the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: All right, thanks for watching.

[SPEAKER_09]: We're headed into a break.

[SPEAKER_09]: Still to come, I mean, focus point and more answers to your questions.

[SPEAKER_09]: I encourage you to call now or any time throughout the show.

[SPEAKER_09]: We got 62 million downloads and the reason why is you.

[SPEAKER_09]: So give me a call, I look forward to chatting.

[SPEAKER_09]: 8-8-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_08]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

[SPEAKER_08]: Now the torch has been passed and a new generation of hosts is on the job, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_08]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_08]: 888-99-Chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: My main focus point concerns the silver industrial boom.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, silver story in 2025 and into 2026 is a bit of a mix of long history modern technology and a market trying to rebalance after years of structural change.

[SPEAKER_09]: The latest data show, global silver mine production, taking a bit higher, rising just under 1% of roughly 820 million ounces.

[SPEAKER_09]: That growth came primarily from recoveries, from byproduct mining, rather than major new primary silver discoveries.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have to remember so much of silver that is mine comes as a byproduct of other minerals.

[SPEAKER_09]: Mexico remained the world's largest silver producer followed by China, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile, reinforcing how geographically concentrated silver supply can be.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now a key driver of production growth was the rebound of large operations alongside stronger output from lead and zinc mining in Australia.

[SPEAKER_09]: Silver tied to gold mining showed the fastest growth rate highlighting how much silver supply depends on broader metals, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: Site broader metal cycles rather than silver prices alone as the demand for gold.

[SPEAKER_09]: The demand for copper increases.

[SPEAKER_09]: Those mining operations tend to also increase the supply of silver, but that dependency can limit how quickly supply can respond when demand changes.

[SPEAKER_09]: in the silver market recycling.

[SPEAKER_09]: Prior to a bit of meaningful offset as well, it jumped 6% to its highest level in more than a decade.

[SPEAKER_09]: Higher prices, cost of living pressures, encouraged households and the industry to bring more silver back into the market.

[SPEAKER_09]: Industrial scrap, particularly from chemical catalysts and electronics-related processes, well, that drove most of the recycling increases.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so we talked a bit about this supply, but what about the demand?

[SPEAKER_09]: On the demand side, total silver consumption slipped about 3% to 1.15 billion ounces.

[SPEAKER_09]: That decline wasn't really a collapse, but rather a normalization after unusually strong physical silver investment demand in prior years.

[SPEAKER_09]: The standout again was industrial demand, which set another record and continues to be the backbone of the silver market.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have to understand that is one of the dynamics that makes it so different from gold.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's industrial uses.

[SPEAKER_09]: Solar and clean energy demand?

[SPEAKER_09]: Remain pretty structurally strong, even as manufacturers work to reduce the amount of silver that is required per unit.

[SPEAKER_09]: It added another incremental source of demand, tying silver more closely to long-term technology trends.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, of course, there's also jewelry.

[SPEAKER_09]: Jewelry fabrication actually increased modestly.

[SPEAKER_09]: It was driven largely by India where world demand and lower import duties helped offset higher prices.

[SPEAKER_09]: Western Jewelry demand a bit steady China, however, saw another year of decline.

[SPEAKER_09]: Physical investment demand throughout the year.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's often, right, particularly in India as a high price is weighed on gifting traditions.

[SPEAKER_09]: Physical investment, which explains much of the headline to climb, slipped as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: Take into gather, supply growth, softer investment demand, reduced immediate market tightness without eliminating longer term constraints.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Martyr market sits on top of a history that stretches back more than 5,000 years, silver, it helped power ancient economies from Antolia to Greece to Rome, the Spanish Empire.

[SPEAKER_09]: The discovery of silver in the Americas after 492 reshaped global trade and monetary systems over centuries.

[SPEAKER_09]: innovation steadily expanded production as high-grade ors were depleted.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now modern mining relies on scale, it relies on technology, it relies on bright byproduct recovery, rather than rich standalone silver veins.

[SPEAKER_09]: That makes us fly less flexible, it makes it more exposed to shifts and base metals in gold production.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so looking ahead, silver's fundamentals increasingly depend on industrial demand rather than monetary use alone.

[SPEAKER_09]: The metal's long history is money still matters, but its future is being shaped by electrification, its future is being shaped by automation, its future is being shaped by the energy transition.

[SPEAKER_09]: Silver remains a bridge between the ancient and modern economy where structural demand meets and increasingly constrained supply.

[SPEAKER_09]: We are certainly in the full swing of things in 2025 and most of us are still working through some of those new years resolutions.

[SPEAKER_09]: We have seen a lot more listeners, such as yourselves, the request portfolio reviews, just because it's good to have a second, a third, a fourth, a fifth pair of eyes on our investment portfolios.

[SPEAKER_09]: We can think of things that you certainly may not have, and so it can be a very, very valuable resource for those series investors who are looking to take the next step.

[SPEAKER_09]: If that sounds interesting, head over to Investalk.com and click on the Portfolio Review button.

[SPEAKER_09]: Don't forget, it's free, it's confidential, and we can't wait to speak with you.

[SPEAKER_09]: On the next Investalk, we're going to dig into this story the forever-wrencher economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: Despite stabilizing, home ownership rates for younger demographics have hit new lows.

[SPEAKER_09]: We'll talk all about it and we'll analyze the rise of built-in rent communities and the long-term economic shift away from ownership.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's tomorrow, but for now, I'm Lou Guerrero and I am ready willing and able to take your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_09]: We got plenty still to come from our voicemails, but we'd love to hear from you live, so give me a call now.

[SPEAKER_09]: You know the number, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_08]: Have you heard about Parallel Investing?

[SPEAKER_08]: Parallel Investing differentiates KPP Financial because it aligns the interests of KPP principles with those of their clients as they each share the same risks and potential for success.

[SPEAKER_08]: Learn more anytime at InvestTalk.com, just click on portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_00]: I definitely, this is Tyler in Los Angeles.

[SPEAKER_00]: I have some cash in my IRA to invest and I'm looking to finally get some exposure to gold.

[SPEAKER_00]: Currently I have no exposure to precious metals, so this would be about 10% of my overall retirement portfolio.

[SPEAKER_00]: The intent would be this would be a long-term hold 10 years.

[SPEAKER_00]: Currently looking at three ETFs and what's hoping to get your thoughts on them.

[SPEAKER_00]: The first is GLDM.

[SPEAKER_00]: The second is IAUM.

[SPEAKER_00]: And lastly, SGOL of the 3D prefer one over the other, and then would it make sense for me to purchase more than one of these ETFs or are they all identical enough that I could put the entirety of my golden exposure in just one of them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you as always for any input and perspective.

[SPEAKER_00]: I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the podcast.

[SPEAKER_09]: Say click these three tickers as GLDM, which is the spider gold mini shares trust.

[SPEAKER_09]: IAUM, which is the eye shares gold trust.

[SPEAKER_09]: Micro ETF and SGOL, which is a physical gold shares ETF.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, when you're taking a look at things like this, where they give you similar exposure, there's a couple of things that you really care about, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: You care about your expense ratio.

[SPEAKER_09]: IAUM typically has the lowest expense ratio among the three sits at about nine basis points, where the second GLDM has the second lowest.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's at about 10 basis points.

[SPEAKER_09]: So very similar there, but every basis point down the road matters.

[SPEAKER_09]: SGL, slightly higher, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: SGL's,

[SPEAKER_09]: expense ratio since about 17.

[SPEAKER_09]: So honestly between that I'd probably kick out as GOL off the bat.

[SPEAKER_09]: The next year about liquidity, you care about size, liquidity matters for trade execution, it matters for tighter spreads when you're actually looking to buy in and redeem from that ETF.

[SPEAKER_09]: GLDM is larger than IAUM.

[SPEAKER_09]: And generally has a bit better liquidity than SGOL and IAUM does.

[SPEAKER_09]: So because of that, right, IAUM has a smaller asset size, but liquidity still fine there.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have no problem getting in and out.

[SPEAKER_09]: All three ETFs do actually hold the physical boolean.

[SPEAKER_09]: That's something you want to make sure of.

[SPEAKER_09]: When you are taking a look at these ETFs, are they doing it through financial wizardry, if you will, through futures products?

[SPEAKER_09]: Or do they hold the physical gold?

[SPEAKER_09]: That being said, all three are accessible.

[SPEAKER_09]: If your primary concern is liquidity because of massive trade size, I would probably go for GLDM.

[SPEAKER_09]: But because I imagine that you're not putting a ridiculous amount of money into this ETF in nominal terms, I think if your cost conscious, cost conscious, IUM is the way to go.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks to the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's make it to an arrow.

[SPEAKER_09]: This one came in earlier to the Invest talk voice bank.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hey, I was trying to reach just in our loop.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm calling about the following kicker symbol G.C.

[SPEAKER_02]: G.E.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's Graco Incorporated.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've held this stop for a while and I saw that it's just falling.

[SPEAKER_02]: I want to pick up a few more shares of it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm curious if you could check the fundamentals on this.

[SPEAKER_02]: How does this stop go and forward?

[SPEAKER_02]: Big fan of the show.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks, guys.

[SPEAKER_02]: Have a great day.

[SPEAKER_09]: G-G-G is a greco ink, it is a U.S. industrial manufacturer, what they do is they specialize in fluid handling systems and equipment.

[SPEAKER_09]: For think the industrial space through processes, through pump sprayers, valves, automotive construction, coding chemicals, really all across the board.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now it's a $14 billion, roughly, $14.6 billion market cap company is very little debt.

[SPEAKER_09]: Only about 12 million.

[SPEAKER_09]: million dollars in debt as of 2025.

[SPEAKER_09]: The valuation, though, been on the expensive side slightly above its five-year average, sitting at 27.1 times right now versus its five-year average of 26.7.

[SPEAKER_09]: So a bit high, but not a gregously high compared to where it's been.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, you today that it's up just under 6% at 5.84%.

[SPEAKER_09]: Let's take a look at why this has been the case, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: It is more of a stable industrial play with pretty solid, not high, but steady dividends.

[SPEAKER_09]: The dividends range from 90 basis points to 1.4% over the past five years.

[SPEAKER_09]: So if you're looking for steady, predictable cash flows, this certainly could be the type of company that is for you.

[SPEAKER_09]: There has been a good history of share repurchases.

[SPEAKER_09]: They authorize a new share repurchase program.

[SPEAKER_09]: They raise their quarterly dividend recently.

[SPEAKER_09]: And that's certainly a boon to stock prices.

[SPEAKER_09]: And can help with returns down the road.

[SPEAKER_09]: But I mean, recent earnings have been a bit mixed.

[SPEAKER_09]: earnings for share has been kind of all over the place relative to it's rather relative to predicted levels.

[SPEAKER_09]: Overall, I mean, I consider this probably at a range where I would maybe looking to add slowly waiting for a bit of a dip here.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's momentum isn't very strong, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: It's been relatively flat over the past couple years.

[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, 2024, it was down roughly 3%, 25, it's down roughly 3%, 20, 26, it's only up about 5.8%.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so for me, it's a bit expensive where it's sitting.

[SPEAKER_09]: Fundamentally, the company's fine.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you're looking for predictable cash flows, certainly a good thing.

[SPEAKER_09]: But Reverend Goeth is slowed.

[SPEAKER_09]: Overall, I think for now, I would probably keep Graco Ink on my watch list.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is take her G, G, G. Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is a big, big part of the economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: And frankly, global growth, it's being propped up less by consumers or businesses, and more by governments tearing up old budget rules and continuing to spend incredibly aggressively.

[SPEAKER_09]: Across the US, across Europe, across Asia, large fiscal stimulus packages financed by widening deficits are stepping in to, in a way, offset, what we've seen as weak private demand and repeated economic shocks.

[SPEAKER_09]: JP Morgan estimates this wave of public spending could lift global growth to a 3% annual pace of the next six months, and that could boost jobs, certainly in the short term, but has risks in the long term, the strategy's risky, because it's unfolding at a time of low unemployment and still elevated interest rates, meaning that any massive debt burdens

[SPEAKER_09]: Could it amplify financial stress and the payoff isn't really there?

[SPEAKER_09]: You're not trying to tame unemployment.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, Japan has offered a bit of an early warning signal when Bongeyield's surged after the Prime Minister unveiled new spending and tax cuts, sending ripples through the global bond market.

[SPEAKER_09]: You can see this.

[SPEAKER_09]: These market reactions as a symptom of deeper vulnerabilities, including weak productivity growth, including heavily heavy reliance on government stimulus.

[SPEAKER_09]: Outside of Japan, in the U.S., in Germany, fiscal policy alone is expected to add about one percentage point to growth this year.

[SPEAKER_09]: While Japan's boost is closer to half a percent.

[SPEAKER_09]: China is pushing even harder even further running a budget deficit near 9% of GDP for a second year as it leans on public spending to counter the structural and external pressures that are ailing its economy.

[SPEAKER_09]: Governments are spending to confront overlapping challenges from a hydrogen disruption to trade wars to military-wearmament, energy transitions, aging populations, putting band-aids on issues rather than solving them.

[SPEAKER_09]: Unlike past cycles, leaders are avoiding tax increases.

[SPEAKER_09]: They're letting deficits swell.

[SPEAKER_09]: With average government shortfalls, far larger than they were a decade ago.

[SPEAKER_09]: And frankly, bond markets have not yet punished this approach.

[SPEAKER_09]: the way they did during past debt crises.

[SPEAKER_09]: Partly because inflation has eroded debt burdens and austerity has lost political appeal.

[SPEAKER_09]: Still, rising interest costs are a growing concern.

[SPEAKER_09]: An economist are justifiably warning that have investor confidence cracks or growth more importantly disappoints.

[SPEAKER_09]: Today's stimulus could be tomorrow's problem.

[SPEAKER_09]: Here comes another listener question now from 80 to 80.

[SPEAKER_06]: Hi, there you go.

[SPEAKER_06]: really appreciate your show.

[SPEAKER_06]: I had a question about Brunswick Corporation, take us to both B and B.

[SPEAKER_06]: These are the guys who manufacture and sell both all the recreational marine stuff.

[SPEAKER_06]: What are you talking about this company?

[SPEAKER_06]: Do you think it's fairly valued?

[SPEAKER_06]: I do own some of them.

[SPEAKER_06]: Should I be adding to my position or would you be able to be on the show?

[SPEAKER_09]: Designs, manufacturers, markets, or recreational marine products, including boat engines, boats, parts accessories, and anything really related to marine technologies through a couple of its major brands, particularly Boston Wailer and Mercury Marine.

[SPEAKER_09]: To 5.7 billion dollar market cap company, has about 2.2 billion in debt as of the end of 2024.

[SPEAKER_09]: And relative to the market, I mean, it's moved pretty dramatically so far this year.

[SPEAKER_09]: Up 19.14% in the past three months, up 15.4% year to date.

[SPEAKER_09]: Revenue, some about 5% on an analyzed base is going back to 2020, but it did hit a peak coming out of the pandemic when a lot of people had a lot of money to spend, but they otherwise were not spending.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now because of this price increase, current valuation is sitting near its five-year high, the average is 11.2, the high is 21.1, the low is 5.8, it's priced earnings is sitting at 20.3 right now, priced a book at three and a half, priced a cash of seven to seven times.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now what is really driven, it's stock is,

[SPEAKER_09]: results from strong demand from market share gain in the marine retail space, particularly in its Florida region.

[SPEAKER_09]: And overall, signaled confidence in the broad consumer voting market.

[SPEAKER_09]: They also in a way emphasize a bit of innovation through their engines, through their electronics.

[SPEAKER_09]: They've showcased new products that have driven a lot of interest from analysts.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now margins have kind of been all over the place.

[SPEAKER_09]: They hit a peak in 2021 at 10.2% down to 4.9% where it's projected to be in 2026.

[SPEAKER_09]: EBITDA margins found from 17.3 projected to fall to 12.7 by the end of this year.

[SPEAKER_09]: And it is in a historically cyclical area of the market.

[SPEAKER_09]: Even though its brands are some of the most recognizable brands in the recreational boating space, you cannot argue with the fact that this stock has run up a bit over the past three months.

[SPEAKER_09]: And as put itself in a place where you've growth falls,

[SPEAKER_09]: you can be in a bad position.

[SPEAKER_09]: It also falls under my rule of not buying anything within two weeks of earnings as positions have been taken to jockey for earnings announcements, can be incredibly volatile.

[SPEAKER_09]: So for now, take away, I wait and see, what happens on January 29th when they come out with earnings?

[SPEAKER_09]: Certainly the price could surge, but the risk, the volatility risk is heightened anytime earnings announcements occur.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is, Brunswick Corporation, ticker, BC.

[SPEAKER_09]: So we got plenty of time before our next break.

[SPEAKER_09]: So why don't we answer another voicemail question now?

[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks for everything you do on the show.

[SPEAKER_04]: I have a question about old Dominion Freight lines.

[SPEAKER_04]: I recently picked up some shares.

[SPEAKER_04]: I was just wondering if you're seeing anything negative and the news was the outlook for this company.

[SPEAKER_04]: Just wondering what your take is at this current level.

[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks very much.

[SPEAKER_04]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_09]: Old Dominion freight lines ticker ODFL is one of the leading U.S. less than truckload freight carriers so they provide national regional and expedited freight services through a large service center network and has for a really long time been widely regarded by analysts for their great pricing discipline, their strong margins and for those who use their business for their incredible efficiency.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's return on equity.

[SPEAKER_09]: has been upwards of 20% for the past five years, peaking in 2022 about 37.6% falling down to about 23.2% this upcoming year.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, because of these margins, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: It's a bit demargin around 32.9% for a transportation industry whose rather transportation company who's going to be heavily tied to the cost of fuel, it's pretty impressive.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's a reason why it's trading at 34.4 times price to

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, it is a pretty large company, 36.6 billion dollar market cap.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's got virtually no debt and 133 million in debt.

[SPEAKER_09]: And so, how has this been performing?

[SPEAKER_09]: Well, 2024 was weak.

[SPEAKER_09]: Underperform the S&P by 36, underperforming his industry by nine.

[SPEAKER_09]: It was down 13%.

[SPEAKER_09]: 2025 was rough, underperformed.

[SPEAKER_09]: The S&P by 27.5, underperforming the industry by 3.2.

[SPEAKER_09]: It was down 11.1%.

[SPEAKER_09]: The past couple years before that, I mean, performance is solved.

[SPEAKER_09]: And this year performance has been pretty good as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: Up 10.96% year to date up 27.82% over the past three months.

[SPEAKER_09]: Their revenue, their profitability, is understandably going to be tied to the specific niche area of freight that they carry.

[SPEAKER_09]: So periods of weaker freight demand or softer tundish metrics, they can wait pretty heavily on this stock,

[SPEAKER_09]: There's also been a decent amount of volatility year over year in revenue growth.

[SPEAKER_09]: It hit a peak in December 2022.

[SPEAKER_09]: Haven't quite clawed their way back.

[SPEAKER_09]: In fact, revenue has been falling now that trend may be reversing here.

[SPEAKER_09]: But it may be reversing.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is early in the year.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's certainly going to be based upon estimates.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now price action is recently showed a bit of a bounce from late, year lows and trading nearly higher end of its range, but it's still a bit expensive.

[SPEAKER_09]: I would say if you're holding a position, I don't see any reason to sell immediately, but I'd be hesitant to enter a new position here, given some of the cyclical demand issues, and given how much the price is run up.

[SPEAKER_09]: in the past three months and where that's pushed valuations.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's also a name, gonna have earnings, February 4th, gonna be interesting to see the results relative to the estimates.

[SPEAKER_09]: That is Old Dominion Freightline, ticker, O-D-E-F-L.

[SPEAKER_09]: This is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm Lou Guerrero, we have one goal here.

[SPEAKER_09]: The Maggol, each and every day is to help you achieve your financial freedom by educating you and helping you become a better and more informed investor.

[SPEAKER_09]: Our work continues after this break, our final break.

[SPEAKER_09]: So if you got that burning question on your mind that cannot wait until tomorrow's show, pick up that phone, dial 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Luke Guerrero is here and ready to tackle your questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: I wanted to pick your brain about Apple.

[SPEAKER_01]: What did you think about their earnings call?

[SPEAKER_01]: They're just a good time to add to my position.

[SPEAKER_03]: Call in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_08]: The Invest Talk phone lines never closed.

[SPEAKER_08]: And now Luke Guerrero is here taking your calls live.

[SPEAKER_08]: Invest Talk, 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: So like we got a live call, Nick from Hayward, you got a question about Netflix?

[SPEAKER_07]: Yes sir, yes sir, hi, no problem.

[SPEAKER_07]: Are you sir?

[SPEAKER_09]: Doing well, how are you?

[SPEAKER_07]: Good, good, thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_07]: Great show.

[SPEAKER_07]: Yeah, let me know.

[SPEAKER_07]: I have some shares of it and thinking about adding to my position and what is your opinion as to if it's a good time or you think.

[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, let's take a look at Netflix, Netflix of course, the massive, massive streaming company.

[SPEAKER_09]: Right.

[SPEAKER_09]: And there's a bit of a big deal out of the horizon, right?

[SPEAKER_09]: Trying to buy Warner Brothers Discovery though.

[SPEAKER_09]: There is also a competing bid that is from Paramount.

[SPEAKER_09]: And since the announcement of the merger, Netflix stock has been trading a bit down.

[SPEAKER_09]: Back in July of 2025, it reached its local high of $130 to share, and it has since been a downward climb to about $85.76.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now originally, the transaction, the proposed transaction, was going to be a little bit of cash and a little bit of stock, but after paramount came in and said, okay, we'll offer all cash.

[SPEAKER_09]: Netflix has since done the same.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think about 82 billion, 82.7 billion is where the projected cost of this is going to be at 27.75 a share.

[SPEAKER_09]: Now, anytime you have companies that are involved in merger activity, it becomes a bit of a risk here.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's a lot of heightened risk for this company.

[SPEAKER_09]: Historically speaking, more than 50% of mergers do not actually do well in the three years

[SPEAKER_09]: uh, after a deal has been completed.

[SPEAKER_09]: The reason being is you don't really know what the synergies are going to be until you start working in a singular entity.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's a lot of execution risk out there as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: There's also a bit of a political element in this transaction as well.

[SPEAKER_09]: You know, the Allison family, being involved in paramount, certainly a close relationship with the Trump administration and word today that there are Congress people who want to look into the anti-trust component of the Netflix deal.

[SPEAKER_09]: So given everything that's out there, given the heightened risk, I'm not sure that it'd be wanting to add more into my portfolio of

[SPEAKER_09]: Before we head off, I wanted to talk a little bit about Gold, which breached $5,000 in ounce today.

[SPEAKER_09]: And because investors are kind of facing a mix of lower bond yields of lofty stock valuations of geopolitical turbulence, it's kind of converging into the same response here.

[SPEAKER_09]: You buy Gold as a form of financial insurance.

[SPEAKER_09]: Just three months after breaking through 4,000 in ounce.

[SPEAKER_09]: Gold's surge passed $5,000 in ounce.

[SPEAKER_09]: Today, and frankly, that would have seemed a bit implausible if you ask me a year and a half ago.

[SPEAKER_09]: The major driver is this so-called debasement trade, where investors fear that inflation rising debt, political interference will steadily erode the value of major currency specifically the US dollar.

[SPEAKER_09]: President's aggressive posture from Venezuela and a trade threats to public pressure on the Fed has amplified those fears and weakened confidence in the dollar's long term stability.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's why you've seen this historic drawdown in the dollar's worth.

[SPEAKER_09]: Gold Rally accelerated earlier this year as tariffs battered the dollar and continued after the Fed signaled rate cuts despite inflation still running above target.

[SPEAKER_09]: Lower interest rates have reinforced to this move since falling yields on treasuries in cash reduce the opportunity cost of holding a metal that offers no income but potentially significant upside.

[SPEAKER_09]: With roughly 7.7 trillion still parked in money market funds, even a small reallocation towards gold could have an outsized effect on prices.

[SPEAKER_09]: Adding to demand our central banks, which have become persistent buyers since the global financial crisis, and sharply increased purchases after Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.

[SPEAKER_09]: Many emerging market and non-Western central banks are shifting reserves away from dollar assets into gold, which cannot be frozen or sanctioned by the US government.

[SPEAKER_09]: But at the same time, soaring stock prices, whether making investors uneasy, valuation measures, suggesting equities are more expensive than at almost any point in the past century.

[SPEAKER_09]: Concerns are especially acute around mega-capped tech companies, whose dominance means any reversal could ripple quickly through global markets.

[SPEAKER_09]: Finally, momentum itself is reinforcing the rally.

[SPEAKER_09]: As history shows that stronghold advances often persist for years,

[SPEAKER_09]: I'm Lou Greer and this completes another episode of Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_09]: Justin and I thank you for listening and encourage you to tell your friends and family members about our free podcast downloads, which you can get at the iTunes or Spotify.

[SPEAKER_09]: Also, while you're at it, why don't you go to Over to our YouTube channel, invest talk with two teas, and check out our YouTube content.

[SPEAKER_09]: As always, today's show made you think about your investment, your taxes, your retirement, anything at all, and you want another set of eyes.

[SPEAKER_09]: At KPP Financial, we offer free, no-cost, confidential portfolio reviews, and through all of our investment strategies, practice parallel investing.

[SPEAKER_09]: In short, parallel investing differenchies KPP because it aligns the interest of KPP with our clients.

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