[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to another baseball America fantasy podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is your host Jeff Ponce alongside me today.

[SPEAKER_00]: Not my usual co-host, Dylan White.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's on vacation for a couple of weeks.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I pulled in our college writer, Jacob Rodner, who is also an avid fantasy player.

[SPEAKER_00]: He've heard him on this podcast before.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to kind of break down some trends, you know, we're in between the ranking season that just ended, we've done FYPD, we talked about redraft and quite a few things, so we're going to get into some more conversations around prospects to consider for redraft.

[SPEAKER_00]: some potential dynasty targets now that we're kind of in the the the prime acquisition window and dynasty leagues whether it's FYPD trade season, you know, however your team your league maybe handles prospects that we're in kept keepers all that sort of stuff so it's a great time to kind of

[SPEAKER_00]: kicked off today in an expert league with a bunch of my friends.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, Rudd, let's talk a little fantasy baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know that your avid player as well and somebody who pays a lot of attention to some of the incoming names in the FYPD class.

[SPEAKER_00]: One of them at the top, I think, is most interesting is more

[SPEAKER_00]: It has a Japanese born player home run record in the NPV, not the NPV home run record.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's important that we make that distinction.

[SPEAKER_00]: But had put up a huge season a few years ago, the contact rate, the in-game power, some of the underlying numbers have regressed over the last handful, last handful, last few seasons.

[SPEAKER_00]: we're a world baseball classic roster.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's penciled in as the first basement this time.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it should be sort of interesting to see how he progresses.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Jake, the reason we're discussing him, there is a wide range of evaluations on more economy.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's been a lot of talk about the strikeout rate, the contact struggles against velocity, which depending upon which numbers you look at aren't necessarily

[SPEAKER_00]: but you want to make the case for more economy.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm sort of interested, you know, how you're viewing him at this point and if you feel as if that wide range of evaluations that delta between the high guys and the low guys is presenting a buying opportunity right now in your leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think we are in the fantasy world at a very interesting crossroads right now, which is where we have to start considering the viability, the instant viability of some of these guys who post from Japan come over to MLB and are going to take on.

[SPEAKER_01]: prominent everyday roles for the teams that they sign with immediately.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's not a new thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Guys have been coming over from Japan in other countries and contributing at the big league level instantly for years.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're just seeing more of it right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that guys like Murakami are positioned to

[SPEAKER_01]: be at least decent enough contributors instantly that he's the most attractive or one of the two most attractive FYPD picks.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think that there are problems.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you and I have, I mean, just to give the people who are listening to this, some insight into my fantasy fandom.

[SPEAKER_01]: I texted Jeff the other day and I was like, I'm going to read draft league.

[SPEAKER_01]: Where should I be targeting?

[SPEAKER_01]: We're a comedy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm I'm like doing the podcast with the guy like I seek advice from but you know from a pure baseball standpoint.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that he is maybe not as bad a hitter against velocity is he kind of had a name for going into the the posting window.

[SPEAKER_01]: You actually did a really good breakdown where it's like you you adjust the sliders the right way and it once it's 93 plus instead of 92 plus and the numbers are better

[SPEAKER_01]: Stick kind of regardless of how you decide to break it all down and that does scare me because I cannot imagine a world in which he doesn't for the first

[SPEAKER_01]: six months of his professional American professional baseball career face an absolute ton of splitters and spin and opposing teams pitchers are just like all right good luck pal like you got to prove that you can touch it before we throw you anything else that scares me but again it's like do you take the guy who has 80 power 80 raw power and potential like 70 game power if everything clicks

[SPEAKER_01]: To me, that's the first or second pick off the board at an FYP degree, but FYP, FYP, D situation.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you can tell me I'm wrong here, but I really don't see somebody who's more enticing than that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, like, I think it's a pens, sort of how you, you know, what you're being scoring is like,

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, what your team build is like, because there's a lot of, I feel like with these, with these MPB players, there's a lot of teams that are competitive that are trading up into the top of the FYPD, but essentially backfill, I know I have one league, you know, my, my primary league is a 30 team league where anybody under, you know, 130 at bats entering the season is considered a prospect.

[SPEAKER_00]: and then in season up to 400 at bats, you're still a prospect.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like I could move more economy back and forth.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's say I had JJ weather halt as my utility.

[SPEAKER_00]: I could move the both of them back and forth.

[SPEAKER_00]: I could have them both in.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it gives me like more roster flexibility, where it's almost like my 23-man roster, turns into like a 25-man roster.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think like looking at the scoring, those guys can have more value.

[SPEAKER_00]: If we're looking just in a vacuum, like for for 2026,

[SPEAKER_00]: I probably would lean Aquimoto, just thinking that the overall we're doing for me.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it would be pretty close.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to get maybe 20 home run power in a really good line up a much better line up than more commies in, in a good hitters park, in a division with a lot of good hitters parks, and a guy who could potentially be eligible at three different positions.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the other thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: More commie will probably be first base third base.

[SPEAKER_00]: Where Aquimoto could be third base first base and outfield.

[SPEAKER_00]: Which, no, depending upon how many outfielders you, you roster or or start in your given league could be three could be four could be five and some things that obviously has some additional value.

[SPEAKER_00]: I also think that whether it's OVP or batting average, you're not going to take such a hit in that category with an automotive.

[SPEAKER_00]: That said, Dynasty, we're looking in a three year four year window, there's a lot more runway for more common development to a top five rounds or sort of talent, especially if he gets his contact rate to a point where he's a 240 hitter with good on based percentages and can hit 35 bombs.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not all the realm of outcomes, and he's a 35-home runheader.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's got 80 power, but the raw juice is loud, he hits it hard, he hits the ball of good angles, and he's a swing decision guy where he's not necessarily swing himself into as many outs in the zone.

[SPEAKER_00]: Would be interesting to sort of see how he translates against more fastballs in the zone, maybe a little bit less spin, different types of spin versus the stuff that he's seeing in Japan and a lot less splitter.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he's going to see a Japan where obviously they see a lot of off-speed stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now the game in the United States is progressed more toward more off-speed usage than we had seen in previous years.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's certainly another component.

[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I think the other part of more economy that's interesting to discuss is if you are a

[SPEAKER_00]: projections specific drafter.

[SPEAKER_00]: So someone who is using a steamer or a zips or ATC or the bat, or oopsie, there's four or five of them now that I think depending, there's some pretty good numbers.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like oopsie, which is Jordan Rosenblum, well, I know is one of Dylan, my co-hosts, close friends, and somebody who's working really trusts.

[SPEAKER_00]: He has them as a 221346446 guy with 31 home runs, 12 steals.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a 15.1% law create with a 34.1% strikeout rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: The strikeout rates across all these, whether it's the bad X, which utilizes some stat cast data, hasn't 206, 331, 446 with 30 home runs, ATC hasn't,

[SPEAKER_00]: which is not specific projections, but

[SPEAKER_00]: Arial as far as I know kind of takes like three or four different projections and then like blends them together and I think there's maybe some secret sauce playing time stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that gives you kind of an overall that view.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have 28 home runs 213 233 435 steamer, which I think generally has been the the gold standard for this sort of stuff 233 3457 with 30 home runs.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's pre consistent.

[SPEAKER_00]: 28 to 31 home runs across all of these projection systems.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even if you tick that down a little bit, you're probably looking at a 25 home run guy right out of the gate.

[SPEAKER_00]: And at the top of your FYPD with some of the risk, especially in a bad class where you're targeting pitchers, like what's beyond, is the other guys that are kind of in the top conversation, or DAX Killby, who

[SPEAKER_00]: huge upside, tons of athleticism, not really lifting the ball yet, even though he's got good EVs.

[SPEAKER_00]: Do I believe in the player-long term?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, but there is substantial risk there that this does not look the way it looked, you know, after the drafts.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I have him, like, as my highest position guy that isn't from the end can be, you might have my FYPD ring.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm very in on Kilbi and I'm saying that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have a my who I like I have one I would take one because I think pitching is just so hard to find.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you might be a team that has good pitching and you need hitters and I like I think it's they're all kind of close, but he's got some risk as well that some of this doesn't translate he's undersized he's a guy that you know it doesn't miss a lot of bats in Japan with this fastball.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if based on locations if that will change I think it could, but it remains to be seen and he didn't, he got a very player friendly contract that makes you think that maybe some teams.

[SPEAKER_00]: didn't necessarily believe or given that big term that he wanted and was looking for more one of these deals where you could show and prove and then hit the market the next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's interesting, but you know, he's still a little bit older and like we don't know how it's going to, you know, just just generally there's there's more picture risk, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have Kay Anderson, really good stuff, dominant college starter,

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you can talk more to this in terms of the pitch mix.

[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty good.

[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't throw that hard though.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, it is the Mariners.

[SPEAKER_00]: They've added velocity to even guys that had velocity.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he could be more like 93 to 96 or 94 to 96 touch and sevens more regularly, but he's more like 92 to 94.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have Liam Doyle, who I personally love.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a big Liam Doyle guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think the stuff is loud.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's exciting.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's a guy that's leveled up each year that he's had throughout his career.

[SPEAKER_00]: But he's got really fresh.

[SPEAKER_00]: There was secondary, you know, lack of a true plus secondary pitch that I think is clear across all evaluations whether you like the split or not, not a great breaking ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's a concern.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but even what you're talking probably pick 15 to 20 and most of my PD's like, right, just talking the top five.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then it's like Eli Willets and, you know, some of these other guys that just there's a ton of risk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I do think that you're in a very risky group.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it is a player that could have immediate returns that, especially if he has a good first half, which we've seen with these guys before the lead kind of figures amount.

[SPEAKER_00]: He could be really loud in April, May, and mid-June, and then you could try to flip them.

[SPEAKER_00]: And all of a sudden you're trading them for a top 25 prospect because you got a competing team that had a third baseman go down, or a first baseman go down, or a corner infield guy, or you'd

[SPEAKER_00]: That's what happened with your sheet of, I actually traded your sheet in one league at the halfway point and at that point he looked like he was an all-star.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then the second half and then since he's not been nearly as good.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that could happen too.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I even think for some of the rebuilding teams, there's even like the case that you take this guy on, then you flip them.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you reinforce your rebuild like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anything else you want to bring on more of a copy?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is this,

[SPEAKER_01]: You might laugh at this.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is this just 2017 to 2021, Joey Gallo?

[SPEAKER_01]: Is that who Morcomi is?

[SPEAKER_01]: Is that what this is about to be?

[SPEAKER_00]: He's not the athlete and like the defensive value won't be there in a real life.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just a bet.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just talk just a little bit about the fantasy standpoint.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[UNKNOWN]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I don't think this is all that I think this is isn't all that different from like what Spencer Jones is from a point right you just read I mean you just read some of the projections and like instantly I'm like Joey Gallo Joey Gallo battle and I pulled up 2021 which is one of his two.

[SPEAKER_01]: all star seasons.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was $199.351.458.

[SPEAKER_01]: He struck out 213 times for a 34% clip, 111 walks in 2021, which was an 18% clip.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he hit, what was it?

[SPEAKER_01]: 38 homeruns.

[SPEAKER_01]: So,

[SPEAKER_01]: below the Mendoza line, 30 plus percent strikeout rate, 30 plus bombs, and you know, is going to carry a line up in like this really weird, oddly productive, somewhat visually unpleasant way.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it feels like more a comedy is on the fast track to doing exactly that for a couple of years.

[SPEAKER_01]: In like the most likely outcome band feels like larger, less athletic,

[SPEAKER_00]: I like, I don't disagree with that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so we just did, we just did 15 minutes pretty much on Laura Cami, which is about as much for a coffee dog as you're going to get anywhere.

[SPEAKER_00]: With that said, let's take a quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: We come back, we got some more redraft sleepers, names the target coming up, getting to some more of those conversations.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe this Pablo take three hours.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, but we'll be right back.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, we are back, just talk more call me for quite a few minutes.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk one of my favorite 20, 26 sleepers and read drafts.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that is the Cardinals Josh Bias.

[SPEAKER_00]: This was a name that you had brought up to me as well before the show.

[SPEAKER_00]: I obviously write our Cardinals chapter.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have Josh Bias as a top 100 prospect.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would argue this was one of the more,

[SPEAKER_00]: Out of left field, turn around.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've seen with a prospect.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's very rare that a guy that has the contact issues that Bias had, turns it around in the manner in which Bias turned it around, where you're kind of looking at the hits who won't be in like,

[SPEAKER_00]: There's still a little swing in Miss, but it's more like averageish now.

[SPEAKER_00]: Huge power, tons of speed.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think the body's better than it's been, even dating back to high school where it was a super-athweet.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if he's a long term center fielder, but he could play a little center, and I think you look at this cardinals lineup,

[SPEAKER_00]: some of the guys that are already penciled into starters, some of these guys is one or two that could potentially get traded to another organization before the start of the season.

[SPEAKER_00]: I really do and he's on the 40 man.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's going to break camp with a team anything along those lines outside of an absolute stellar spring training.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do think there's a chance that he could be up by June and

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I, it's hard for me to argue any of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like to think it's easier to think about players in terms of just the rock categories, the raw areas that they're good at in the context of fantasy, you don't need to necessarily break it down as scoutily as we may do.

[SPEAKER_01]: at Baseball America and the raw numbers matter more and his are really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: 54 stolen bases last year hit 20 bombs, 23 doubles, a tick under 300 on base, 384, slug, 500.

[SPEAKER_01]: So this is somebody who's going to

[SPEAKER_01]: fill a lot of gaps potentially in a fantasy lineup.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that he is probably a right feelner.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like you said, there's a chance he plays center, but the good news is is that most people are playing the league that has OF in outfield.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so he's going to fill that spot.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he brings a really well-rounded skill set to the table and he's somebody who, like you said, has proven in a very short amount of time that he is a much better prospect than I think it looked initially after he was half in the second round in 21 that a, you know, a Massachusetts high school and he's really turned it on.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's a baseball America favorite, he's climbed in our rankings, you have written

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think he's he's like a really exciting young outfielder to target in in a redraft league because I do think that the impact will come sooner than later at the big league level and he showed last year mostly in double a which is super valuable that he's legit and and the numbers across the board are really good and if anything, you know it's funny.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you can speak to this like of all the things that entice me about him and this is somebody who has really good bad at ball data.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to put the ball over the fence.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's striking out less than he used to.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's walking more than he used to, but I'm like enamored by the athleticism and the speed and the ability to kind of change the game on the basis and be a productive player in that way, too.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, he is he is a plus athlete every bit of it, and I think that he'd slim down a little bit too.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he tried to add mass as a power hitter.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's always hit the crap out of the ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you got a little bit more spray, you don't seem like some of the twitch that we saw when he was like a high school player was kind of back.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and like just getting good jumps, making good swing decisions, um, and just generally, you know, making plays both sides of the ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and the funny thing is he kind of like, uh, flattened out the swing a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's still like there's still launch, but he was like super super steep before at contact.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's a little bit less sweet steep.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's where added some of the adjustability.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um,

[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, the contact rate jump was like three, three letter grade, you know, it was like from like a 20 to like a 45 50.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it was it was pretty substantial.

[SPEAKER_00]: And just to kind of give you an idea of where he's tracking overall all NFBC leagues up to this point that have been drafted recording this in the 30th of January.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a 597 ADP.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's moved up pretty significantly over the last couple of weeks, over the last 10 days by as his ADP is 476, and that's a class of decent number of drafts.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he's moving up from like a late round guide, so like

[SPEAKER_00]: 476, and those droughts with 15 teams in the league is 31st, 30 second round.

[SPEAKER_00]: So somewhere in that range, I think like with a lot of redraft leagues that are only going like 27 rounds, you can probably get this guy is a last round like do you know it's see what happens.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's going to break camp, but it's not I mean like you look at the outfield right now and it's large nude bar Jordan Walker and Victor Scott the second.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like between Walker and Victor Scott, he's the better player.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, at this point, he's a combination of those two guys good traits at this point.

[SPEAKER_00]: The only act has good angles unlike either of them.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Nupar, I think, is other than John Avon, probably is the most likely guy in this roster to get traded in the next couple of months.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the other options they have are like, Jose Firmin, Nathan Church, you know,

[SPEAKER_00]: I guess Brian Torres could play a corner out field spot, but these are not guys that are gonna make a difference.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think weather halted by as could be like the middle of this order by some point this season, especially if the contact and everything we saw in 2025 is one for one in 2026, I really struggle to see where this guy's not gonna get those opportunities.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, 100% with you, anything else you wanted to say on by as before we move on to your, your faunted marlins,

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, my Marlin's Outfielders.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would just add that I really like what you just said.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that it's uh, if you're in a 27-ish round draft in a, in a, a redraft league, I'd do it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how many players you're going to get in the 26 or 27th round.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to eventually have as much value as he will have.

[SPEAKER_01]: And even if that's for half a season like.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is not the same thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let me, I'm, I'm looking into the camera.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is not even gonna be on YouTube potentially, but I just want people to know who are listening to this podcast, and I'm steering into the camera to make a point right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is not the same as Paul schemes.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, but,

[SPEAKER_01]: When Paul schemes was drafted, the best pick that you could have made in the late rounds and a league with people that were in a re-rath league who weren't targeting guys who weren't at the big league level, the late Paul schemes pick was the money prospect pick of that year for obvious reasons.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm gonna reiterate, this is not the same thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I am not saying on Jeff podcast right now, this is the same thing, but I do think that you're gonna extract a lot of value if you draft them late and I agree with Jeff, it would be a valuable play to get into the Joshua bias sweepstakes when you can, even if you don't have one of these super deep bench drafts in a redraft league, it's a good play.

[SPEAKER_00]: I agree.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's move on to the next one.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk a little bit about camp all their men and Fenwood Trimble.

[SPEAKER_00]: You do our Marlins coverage of much better grasp of this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But this is an organization that's in flux.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think a lot of the players that were acquired by this regime,

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, probably have a little bit of preference here.

[SPEAKER_00]: So how do you see that the outfield shaking out and Alderman and Trimble are two guys that are virtually free in most dynasty leagues?

[SPEAKER_00]: But you think they're good targets, why?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's start with Camp Alderman.

[SPEAKER_01]: The results last year were outstanding and you had written a couple of times even just about how Camp Alderman seemed to really turn a corner and turn into this very obvious bat first corner outfielder, maybe a first basement, if things, you know, depending on exactly what the big league situation is, although with Augustine Ramirez and Joe Mac, it becomes slightly less likely.

[SPEAKER_01]: But,

[SPEAKER_01]: hitter of the baseball really hard.

[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, 93, my prior average average eggs of velocity, 110, 90th percentile.

[SPEAKER_01]: The angles weren't even particularly great overall last season until the second half when he really turned it on, started leaving the ball, leaving the park at a crazy rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: When he got to triple A, he was outstanding in a very short-stint.

[SPEAKER_01]: 20 games with Jacksonville hit seven bombs, 303, 341, 671.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm intrigued and I think that the bad and bald data should translate.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's 23 years old.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a ton of strength.

[SPEAKER_01]: The marlins put in work to make him a little bit more athletic and not such a, you know, he was he was more on the heavy set side.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think you could describe him as more like the classic power hitting right hand hitting power hitting outfielder type initially.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now I think he's just a generally better mover who looks a little bit more fluid and

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, the swing and miss is going to be a problem.

[SPEAKER_01]: He will strike out.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is a part of the profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: He will chase and you're going to have to tolerate that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we're talking about somebody who I think has 20 to 30 home run power and the athleticism to swipe some bags on the side too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I see value there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that there's an outside chance that he.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe sneaks on to the roster for opening day this year after how good he was in AAA.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's very similar to the Josh bias conversation we just had.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think if he goes in absolutely kills it in spring training.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's a conversation to be had more likely he ends up back in AAA and continues to do damage like he did at the end of the year last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then gets that, you know, June July range call up.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think this is somebody who you should target in a shallow redraft league.

[SPEAKER_01]: late even yet this is more of like a wait and see what happens type player.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think that there's a chance if he gets to the big leagues that he provides some value regardless of league format just thanks to the power and the emerging athleticism.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think that's totally reasonable and like it's funny.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even Alderman's athletic testing was much better than I think a lot of

[SPEAKER_00]: One thing to sort of bring up.

[SPEAKER_00]: I run an article this week on some targets that I have in Dynasty for hitters, and an article for pictures as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Devon Fitzgerald was the guy that I came away most in press width.

[SPEAKER_00]: I say it in the article, and I'm gonna look over here, thank you for great, great YouTube.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I had pulled this number set, and so he had a 11.6 in zone width rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: A 19.5% chase rate, a 105, a 104.5 90th percentile EV, and an average launch angle on hard hit balls in place of 95 plus a 14.3 degrees.

[SPEAKER_00]: There wasn't another player in minor league baseball regardless of one at bat or whatever that met those numbers.

[SPEAKER_00]: And what I was sort of selling him as now, he's not the athlete that McGonagal is, he's not going to be a short stop.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's probably going to be a second basement.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe a coin around field.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's so there's some there's some risk here with with that side of things, but when you look at the hitting profile, good angles, good basketball skills much better power than you anticipate, especially for age and level.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's like a 104.5 is a 60 like roll power for for a guy in the complex that's 18, 19 years old.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you look at, you know, swing decisions like angles, it's all there.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's not a lot of guys that can do that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that we could look back in this McKenzie Gortrade and realize that it was much better for the nationals than a lot of people realize in the surface.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think one of the reasons for that is Gavin Fein is a guy that certain teams value higher than others, especially if you're analytically inclined, he was an analyst favorite.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm kind of with now.

[SPEAKER_01]: I loved him.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we're all correct.

[SPEAKER_00]: Foxy was never with the red socks and went before they could pick him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a chance he would have been the red socks pick had he been available there.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll talk about their pick in a minute.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's actually a full.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking about Kaiser with her screwed after this.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like we planned this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's Gerald who's really, really good.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think you look at even though a hundred risario now that, you know, the first half of his medical issues are kind of behind him.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's had the surgery.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to see him in 2027.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was phenomenal the year before.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think an easy guy for a team like the Nationals to protect.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like they have the 40-man flexibility to make a move like this.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then see what the bounce back is.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen plenty of guys get hurt and come back and be great.

[SPEAKER_00]: Might take a year to build up for meetings.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we might look back in this trade in three years and be like, they have a number three starter.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have a top rookie second baseman.

[SPEAKER_00]: And they have one of their top,

[SPEAKER_00]: hitting prospects and triple A and has put a pretty good numbers.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's some risk with it, but Fitzgerald, I think one of the reasons I dug in was he popped on some of these searches that I did.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then as I started to peel back the layers, the onion number's more and more and more impressed.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he's a guy like he's available in FIP, he even like late first round.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I like him over like a lot of his guys that are available in these.

[SPEAKER_01]: So is there a comp that you have for him?

[SPEAKER_01]: Who'd you compare him to?

[SPEAKER_00]: see it's tough because these like positionless second baseman always kind of slide back, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: I haven't seen the comp for me is kind of a gonagal from like the hitting standpoint.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's just not he's not chemical but they're I don't see a lot of guys with like plus metric contact rates.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, plus swing decisions, plus angles, and plus power.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't, it's like, mononical.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, there's always like some, it's kind of, it's like a perfect profile.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the biggest questions are the athleticism.

[SPEAKER_00]: Does he have a position?

[SPEAKER_00]: and he did have a shoulder injury last year that ended this season.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think if this guy hadn't gotten hurt in June after crushing the complex and moving up to Lowe and hitting it Lowe, had he played that final few months?

[SPEAKER_00]: Here's the chances guy gets to high A and is pushing up against our top 100 first.

[SPEAKER_00]: I honestly think this might be like a legitimate kind of like sleep and giant that's

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm also glad I'll just notice in there and this wasn't planned that you mentioned Alejandro Rosario because you want to talk about like a true stuff monster, the truest sleeper of the sleepers.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he has to be at or near the top of the list.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's not going to plan 2026, which

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously limits the the sleeper value here.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is very much a dynasty play over anything, but when he's right, he has some of the best stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, is it extreme to say in minor league baseball in 2024 or the last time he was healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: He threw 88 innings,

[SPEAKER_01]: It was a stuff monster in college never really had the results and then was explosive in his first year as a pro.

[SPEAKER_01]: The health is a huge problem and I'm not going to sit here and try and convince anybody otherwise.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the best stuff, the top top 10 stuff guy in minor league baseball when he's healthy, that's probably somebody who I would want aggressively on my radar.

[SPEAKER_01]: And honestly, you want to look at this Rangers trade for a second?

[SPEAKER_01]: I, a lot of the, the public feedback was that the nationals got the short end of the stick on this deal.

[SPEAKER_01]: I agree with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that it's kind of a wait and see situation.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like in a couple of years from now, we could look back on this trade and completely reassess what the takeaway was when you have guys like Rosario and fine and if it's Gerald, all these guys who are like,

[SPEAKER_01]: super encouraging.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that the Nats could win big.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's risk for the trade for sure, but like every single one of the prospects who went back are guys who I would want in the conversation in an emergency league for like somebody who I need on my roster to watch very closely because there's a chance that they pop big time over the course of the next three or four years.

[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with that, 100%.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, let's move on to the next one here.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going

[SPEAKER_00]: Do you think it's a guy that could reach the big leagues in 2026?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because he is super polished.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen the Red Sox do this with Peyton Toli.

[SPEAKER_00]: This guy got even more money.

[SPEAKER_00]: He got drafted even higher.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what are your thoughts on whether spoon entering 2026?

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a conversation that you and I have had off the airwaves before and I think it's very relevant here, which is that the competitor matters.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is not just a conversation of stuff and numbers when it comes to pitching and the guys over the last couple years who have had the best track record in terms of getting to the big leagues quickly and being successful after doing so are college pitchers who have.

[SPEAKER_01]: a track record of success, which with her spoon has, and then you put on top of that the fact that they bring some premium stuff to the table, which with her spoon does, and I think that it's the exact right combination that you're looking for.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is a mid to high 90s fastball, extremely flat approach angle.

[SPEAKER_01]: The velocity carries deep into starts.

[SPEAKER_01]: He is working on a number of different off speed pitches.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's like this sweepy slider that we've seen some short videos of throughout this offseason.

[SPEAKER_01]: Got a tighter slider that he uses really well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And just the overall pitchability and competitiveness are impressive with this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's very mature.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the reviews that were coming out of the college game, even before the 2025 season, were that he was going to be somebody who would really explode just thanks to the sheer competitiveness that you like a lot.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we've talked about it the two of us before with Liam Doyle with Gage Wood.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those are the like the super fire competitive guys from this past draft class.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that they

[SPEAKER_01]: Command a lot of the attention in that conversation, but kison where there's been belongs right there with them and you again, like I said, we put that together with the stuff that he's capable of throwing and I absolutely think that he could make a rise to the big leagues this year he's

[SPEAKER_01]: great stamina, the ability to maintain the stuff is outstanding, arguably better than anybody in this entire draft, other than maybe Doyle, and I just think that given the team that he's with now, we could see a very fast track to the big leagues because they're not afraid to do that, and this is a picture who is just as ready as the last two guys who did it for them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think that's, that's kind of what the story is here, and this is the archetype of player that gets to the big leagues quickly.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even guys outside the top 10, try to savage, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We want to say much more than that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But these Polish college pitchers, they get to the big leagues very quickly.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's one of the things that I like about Doyle

[SPEAKER_00]: is Anderson, you know, for all the things that Connor or like check marks in his favor, he's in an organization which can be a little bit harder for him to get starts in the big leagues, where like Doyle, who's keeping Liam Doyle out of the Cardinals rotation if they want him up?

[SPEAKER_00]: Now the team is mad, so that might be a reason he doesn't get up, but I think you look at the red socks, kind of a good balance of both, and they have a lot of rotation depth.

[SPEAKER_00]: wouldn't be crazy if witherspoon, there's some injuries witherspoon finds this way, maybe late in the season getting some starts.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you're looking to the guys that you gamble on.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even if you wanted to, you know, better a bremner or a Jamie Arnold getting up to the big leagues this season, I don't think that's such a bad gamble, frankly.

[SPEAKER_00]: Especially if you need pitching pitching depth, and I just tend not to target a ton of prospect pitchers.

[SPEAKER_00]: I kind of target prospect hitters and then trade for the pitchers once they've established themselves.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I will say though, but I think that you bring something up that's interesting.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like the the thought process when it comes to even in redraft leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I was just I was I had a redraft last week.

[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the things that I was thinking about is we got into the leap rounds.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 30 round draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm talking like rounds 24 25.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the thought that creeps in your head is which of the college pitchers who are drafted in 2024 and 2025 are guys that I should target right here because they will come up.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not even a question anymore.

[SPEAKER_01]: almost certainly multiple debuts in 2026 of former college pictures who are drafted in the last two years and I would be willing to wager that a couple of them are going to go up and have some success and it is a demographic that I would aggressively target late.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that you bring up a perfect point like do you want to trade for pictures in a perfect world and and stack prospect hitters?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, probably that that is a proven winning strategy in dynasty baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're also kind of able to draft some major league contributors with proximity on the mound at this point out of the college next.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that the draft strategy

[SPEAKER_01]: really in all formats has shifted a little bit with the accelerated timelines that we're seeing with some of these top college arms.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like it, it were really not far away from watching Liam Doyle, Gagewood, Kison with her spoon, maybe Jamie Arnold, and maybe but to a lesser degree like you said, Kate Anderson, making a major league impact in some capacity.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, I think that's totally reasonable.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's move on to the next one here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Get another conversation FYPD focused.

[SPEAKER_00]: Chase, level, let bounce back to where.

[SPEAKER_00]: This was the number one player in the class a year ago.

[SPEAKER_00]: Had the hand injury, I think, and you could speak more to this than I can.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think some of the the the change over and coaching staff and just maybe the vibe around Texas A&M wasn't so great last year either after, you know, they're What a game away from when in the college world series, they lose in their coach steps out the door and walks on over to Texas, you know, a chief rival Within an hour or two.

[SPEAKER_00]: The end the conclusion of that of that game.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I like there's a lot of other factors here.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, with J. S. Lavalette, he drops in the draft to the back end of the first round, but you're still a tremendous power speed upside here, especially if like physically he's back to where he was as a sophomore, this guy looked like a future all star when I saw him in the cave at that point.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what's your takeaway on Lavalette because I kind of feel like after you get past the top 15 top 10, it's kind of a really good target.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I certainly agree with that, we're talking about a player who probably has some ground to make up in the athleticism department.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that his junior season, we saw the body kind of shift in a way that was more geared towards the bat and the ability to generate power than it was this really well-rounded athletic overall profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do think he can get back to that

[SPEAKER_01]: really easy area for players to correct and pro ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's probably their physique and athleticism and ability to move, just because there's so much more dedicated training and nutritionists and all the bells and whistles that come with pro ball that get guys back to that point.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's somebody who I think will do that.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then the bad of ball data is outstanding.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he absolutely killed the ball last year, 93 mile per hour average exit VLO.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, he, hard hit rate of 53%, he doesn't really chase a lot out of the zone.

[SPEAKER_01]: The angles are like, almost as good as you're going to get out of a college hit or they were outstanding last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: The questions become whether or not he's going to make enough contact because he definitely did not do that in his final year at the college level.

[SPEAKER_01]: He probably needs to actually be a little bit more aggressive as a swinger like I think he can get

[SPEAKER_01]: kind of overly passive at times, and it hurts him.

[SPEAKER_01]: It definitely did last year, and it puts him into these bad counts where then he wasn't the kind of hitter that I think people expected him to be going into the season, but you kind of would rather a hitter in my opinion, who you have to bring it out instead of rain it in, and I think that Jace has that to a degree, while also having the underlying strength and traits that could make a really good hitter, I'd been on

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, I tend to agree with you.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's why I still had him, you know, higher in our FYP rankings, I think versus some of the consensus.

[SPEAKER_00]: He dropped a little bit with some of the guys that got added, but I have him at 23.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I, I obviously am a huge Ethan Frey guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm higher on Xavier Nions than a lot of people are, I'm higher on Josh Hammond than almost everybody.

[SPEAKER_00]: But like I look at like him versus like Ethan Holliday, who I have like buried at 16, he just went nine by the way in an FYPD that I'm drafting.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like people are still on Holliday.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm more or less ranked hot, like sometimes when you do rankings, and I think especially with fantasy rankings, you will rank players in an area where you're like, you're not going to, if you follow this, you're not going to get them.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm telling you right now, this road map is so you avoid drafting this guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think like Ethan Holliday's one of those, I think maybe even in some capacity Eli Willets at eight is one of those for me.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm telling you to take shots on other guys where I think we're love a lead is like depending upon what your league is like and you kind of remove all those international guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what am I, Akamoto, more Akami, and then any of the international signings that are ahead of them, we Hernandez, you know, you're henzy, uh, Colome, so that's five Gomez is 20.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like he goes from

[SPEAKER_00]: 17, you know, which I think much more reasonable, and depending upon what your leagues FYPD rules are, I kind of like risk going.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, what do you have?

[SPEAKER_01]: No one's shoe bar.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would draft shoe bar later.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think shoe bar is another one that's like, you get into like, I'm in deeper leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like, if he's available at like,

[SPEAKER_00]: in the third round for me at pick 88.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'll take a shot on shoe bar, it's like 88, you know?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like at that point, I'm kind of looking at a bunch of different flawed guys or like close to the majors, low ceiling types or like international guys with huge ceiling and absolutely no floor.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, like at that point, it's kind of where I like shoe Bart and some of those guys as well as like some of the high school pitchers that I may not get like I mean I get a land in harming because some people are super high on land in harming, but the farm is there at 80 something like yeah, I'm a little bit more inclined take a shot and some of those more risky profiles where like when my first two round picks that I you know, two guys in the top 60

[SPEAKER_00]: I tend to want a little more balance of both.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think this draft, the one thing that it does have is it does have a really deep tier from like 25 to 75.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we're with a lot of similar values, you know.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I was going to actually, to that end, I was going to say, I think people kind of failed to realize how similar from a data standpoint, no one's shoe Barton, J. Slavval, that are like, here's a fun exercise.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jeff, why don't you pick a data category?

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just run through the board here on how similar of these two guys actually are.

[SPEAKER_01]: Go for it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, what's the zone contact?

[SPEAKER_01]: The zone contact for shoe Bart is 778 and it is 794 for

[SPEAKER_01]: overall contact 69-3 for shoe art, 70-12 for Jace.

[SPEAKER_01]: Which is, which like that, two or three percent can make a fairly I'm not saying, well, and they're analyzed the difference between like mid first round pick and third round pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like I don't think that for for somebody who was a third round real life traffic in shoe bar, I don't think he's that not far removed from what J Springs to the table that it you should be like ignoring him in your job average EV.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, half a let last year 92.8 miles per hour knowing shoe are 95.1.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, and this game is, it's funny, you can keep going down the list.

[SPEAKER_01]: Their jeese is probably the area where there's like the biggest difference and also that just like the overall swing aggressiveness, the level that last year 16.9% chase shoe bark 21.6, that's a huge gap.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but overall swing percentages were different to at at almost a 10% rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: shoe bark was a 44% overall swing rate, uh,

[SPEAKER_01]: level that last year, 35.3.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like there are differences, I think that the aggressiveness probably needs to be reigned in a little bit more on the shoebart side where it needs to be coaxed out a little bit more on levelet, but just in terms of the ability to impact the baseball and put your best contact in the air, these guys are really similar to me and I think the shoebart for a lot of the same reasons as Jayce provides some like deeper FYPD value.

[SPEAKER_00]: So let's wrap up on this one actually.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had a couple other questions scheduled, but we went along and some stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: So let's find Camlider.

[SPEAKER_00]: You wanted to talk Camlider.

[SPEAKER_00]: Potential sleeping giant.

[SPEAKER_00]: The stuff was loud.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think had he been healthy throughout this college career.

[SPEAKER_00]: This could have been a top 10 pick.

[UNKNOWN]: I hate it.

[SPEAKER_00]: So how aggressive are you getting when targeting lighter because I still feel like he's very much underrated and a lot of people are very scared of the potential health risks with him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's interesting because I think the things that you just said are true and a lot of people's brains which allows him to be somebody that you can kind of let slip deeper into your draft depending on how deep exactly the league is and how he picks and all that kind of stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, we're talking about somebody who didn't pitch in college baseball for two consecutive seasons, but has some of the best raw ability of anybody who was drafted on either side of the ball really in this past draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's an outstanding pitcher from a stuff standpoint when he's healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if he is able to get back onto the mound, I think that he's in an organization that's going to put him in a position to be really, really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost like the Alejandro Rosario conversation we just had, where it's somebody who isn't really able to get on the mound, but when he does, there aren't a lot of guys who are able to throw the baseball better than he does.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a, it's a workhorse body.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just not workhorse health and I am aggressive in the sense that I think that he has a chance to be really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, if he is healthy and I think that he's somebody who I, I mean, he is somebody who I have on several of my rosters because of that logic.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, again, I would just caution you though, like when I say I'm aggressive, it's more in the, I want him on my roster and we'll do what it takes to make that happen category than it is like push this guy to your second or third picking your FYPE drafts.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a little extreme.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that you're going to have as much competition in your draft market to be able to secure him as you would some of the other guys we talked about today.

[SPEAKER_01]: But again, I think the overall arching message here is that this is a really, really talented pitcher who is staying healthy away from being impactful.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that is 100% accurate.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's been a guy since really after the draft, I've been kind of beaten the drum on as, you know, a potential, like, I want to say boom or bust because the acquisition cost is so low.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because it's not really a bust.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like you take guys that pick 70 and FYPDs that you release all the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't think that's as much of an issue, you know, I think, I think for me, it's, uh,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's the fact that Leiter has such huge upside and, you know, his organization doesn't hurt either.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Jacob gone 45 plus minutes here when I thank you for jumping in and joining me, you might be back with me again next week.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see.

[SPEAKER_00]: Dylan's off for a couple of weeks and shout to the listeners, shout to everyone that's tuned in this week and I'll let Rodner sneak in at Cheers at Freysa Goodbye later, guys.