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[SPEAKER_01]: Hello, and welcome to Baseball America's draft podcast.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I am Carlos Colazzo joined by Jacob Brunner.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is our penultimate preseason draft podcast.

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[SPEAKER_01]: How you doing, Jacob?

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm doing well, but we're here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: This is it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's college baseball season basically.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And you and I are gonna hit the ground running so excited.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I guess the the next podcast you hear from us on the draft and college side will technically record before the season starts but at least for the draft podcast when you're hearing it next week will actually be out at fields watching games so yeah I cannot wait and so on today's episode we want to.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Break down and analyze and just get into the weeds on our recently updated draft board every year we roll out an update just ahead of the colleges and getting started we typically expand that list to the top 200 players that is the case with this update and there's a lot of movement and maybe it's worth.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Just going over part of the process here, Jacob, because I did get some comments and questions in our draft chat this week, kind of asking, hey, like on this update, there are players with significant up-down moves, but nothing has really happened since your last update.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So how exactly does that work?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think it is useful in just pointing out, like for this draft board in this draft list, we're constantly trying to get new information on players and we're constantly diving in

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[SPEAKER_01]: into the profiles of these players.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I will say that while there are no games that have happened in between this update in our previous one, we've still found a lot of new information on players from the fall.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There have been a lot of fall workouts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob has had a lot of conversations with coaches and what players are doing differently.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Scouts have been evaluating players.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's also the case that

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[SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes we're just hearing more information that we didn't have previously.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think for the draft board, I like to view it as this constant iterative list that we're constantly trying to improve and tweak and maybe if a player is similar from our last update to our current update but we have vastly more information about that player that we didn't have last time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We still want to implement it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So hopefully that expends like kind of a little bit about the behind the scenes process.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But what are your thoughts on this update as we head into the to the year Jacob?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, I've always viewed this as kind of the most critical you can argument for it that it's the most critical update that we do because I think that it sets the stage for who you need to be watching during the college in the high school seasons.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like this is the list now as we see it based on the feedback.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like you said that we have in the information that we've been able to study independently, which I think is a really important part of our process as well, just like the amount of hours that go into

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[SPEAKER_02]: Sitting down and really working to understand each player on our own before we go and get feedback and then we ask questions based on what we think we understand and then we adjust from there and and this to me is the first list that is really comprehensive in that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: we know who we're watching now, like you have all of the fall changes and improvements and rumors and whatever injuries matter and start to kind of come out at this time of year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And this lists sets it all up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, now you have, and we're gonna talk about this and I'll spoil it, but like Cameron Flucke goes into the year as the number one starting pitcher in the country.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And that was Liam Peterson for the entire off season while I think that that is really valuable because it sets the stage for what we're gonna see

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[SPEAKER_02]: in the college season, and it goes to show you what certain players have to do to either regain a certain status or to hold on to something.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And so if I were to urge our readers to really pay attention to and take some time to study a list or a story that we do, it would be the preseason top 200 draft rankings.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Because again, I really think that it's kind of the tone center for everything that you're going to see at the player level for the next few months.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it kind of serves as the Canon list for us entering the year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it matters to use is that phrase when talking about our top 100 lists.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, yes, we've reached a point where there are lots of updates that happen mid-season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're going to go back and look at a draft class historically, it's this preseason list that currently went out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's the actual list on draft day that are really serving as kind of the benchmarks for how we're viewing players.

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[SPEAKER_01]: entering the draft year and at the end of this stage.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So in June and July, when we're talking about player X made certain jumps, player X regrets, it'll be with this sort of ranking and positioning on the draft board serving as like the baseline context for that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So with kind of the needy gritty out of the way, I wanted to move through this podcast and maybe three parts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: First, I want to talk about some of the key movement inside the first round.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's obviously the most important

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[SPEAKER_01]: element of this draft list.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The guys at the top are crucial and kind of define the strength of a draft class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Then I wanted to maybe go further out and say, who are the just the biggest upper names overall on this draft list expanding out beyond the first round?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then after maybe some thoughts on notable players are moving down this board.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe questions that they'll have an opportunity to answer this spring.

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[SPEAKER_01]: to maybe counteracts of that movement.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But first, first round, it's the most fun talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You already mentioned Cameron Flooky in the SP1 spot.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But for me, I have five players that I think are worth discussing here in this update that have notable

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[SPEAKER_01]: up era movement within the first round.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's Cameron Flooky and Jackson Flora, who you mentioned, not sure if you alluded to Flora, but we've got Flooky and Flora inside the top five, one, two, and our starting pitching rankings are just pitcher rankings overall.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Drew Burris gets into the top ten.

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[SPEAKER_01]: At number nine overall, he's now the top outfielder in the class and then two players further down the board who jump into the first round who were not in the first round.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Previously, Eric Booth Jr., the high school outfielder out of Mississippi, he's like slapped up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In the middle of the first round, and then Ryder Helfreck at Arkansas, who we've talked about quite a bit, just in terms of the up era feedback, it feels nice to have him in a position that actually feels...

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[SPEAKER_01]: like realistic based on that feedback.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that was one we were trying to get for a while now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll throw it to you, Jacob, but I don't need any of those guys you want to dig into first.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, I've been super fascinated by the conversation about the top three pictures so far.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And so I'll start there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think that for us right now, it's become clear that even if this isn't the most outstanding college pitching class overall and the feedback that we got, you know, heading into the year was that this might be a little bit of a lighter group in its totality on the college pitching side.

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[SPEAKER_02]: the top end of that group is outstanding.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It is not every year that we have three college arms inside our top 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We will have that this year going into the season.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Cameron Flooky, Jackson Flora, Liam Peterson.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Peterson moved back a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Five spots.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He was fourth previously.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He was our SP1.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We actually haven't started the years.

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[SPEAKER_02]: SP3, which I thought was interesting.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I know we're talking about up arrows, but I found that to be kind of notable just because it

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[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and I think there's kind of an element of like Lee and Peterson has to go out there and show it now, where's the other two being floor and fluki don't have to do that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot less to kind of figure out with the two of them obviously they need to go perform that that this isn't to say that they don't need to go be good, but I think there's less mystery when it comes to fluki and flora.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So he's impressive man like you watch him and he looks funky because he's just so lean and like long limbed and it's just the delivery is kind of this like unique kind of messy almost like very loud noisy I think.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Every time I watch him pitch, I think of those tall and flatable, yes, inflatable man at the car washes that you see.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And because there's a couple of those arms on the team, they've got the market for gangly armed pictures locked down.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but by it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The way that the ball comes out is special.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's really, really good stuff.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And he throws strikes too.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You and I talked about that on a previous draft podcast.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's like an unbelievably impressive strike rate for somebody who is so mechanically funky and just has the stuff that he has.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I keep really all over the zone.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Last year with his fastball that average 20.3 inches of YVB was a 73.7% strike rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And so he gets whiffs and chases on it, he gets great extension to like I think that that's kind of another thing that doesn't necessarily get talk about a lot with flukes that in addition to just the raw fastball traits and super flat approach, he gets down the mound exceptionally well within this really weird delivery and he is kind of the most complete.

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[SPEAKER_02]: picture I would say of this group.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And while there was a conversation to be had between him and Flora for who belongs as SP1, none of these three guys throw strikes like Fluki does.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So the combination of stuff and strike throwing, I think, put them at the first spot.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is kind of how I'm thinking of this trio of arms and tell me if you disagree or what your thoughts are.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But to me Cameron Flukky right now feels like the safest, most polished, like ready-made starter.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The guy you can feel most confident in that his arsenal as currently constructed, what he's previously done.

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[SPEAKER_01]: with coastal.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are just a few question marks that I have within.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think for Jackson Flora, I may be most excited about his pure arm talent compared to either of these other two pictures, but with Flora and Liam Peterson, I feel like there are

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[SPEAKER_01]: there may be more opportunities for them to dramatically redefine like who they are as pitchers and for Florida in particular his arsenal like what that's going to look like and how effective it is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think there are a lot of reasons for us to be really excited about the change up he's been working on and other breaking ball he's been working on.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But a year ago his pitch usage was basically just fastball slider.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have not really seen him.

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[SPEAKER_01]: get further into his bag in terms of a third pitch.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think again, I'm very optimistic about what the change up is going to look like.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But a year ago, his non-fastball, slatter usage was essentially 4% split between a change up in a curveball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would expect and hope that he is implementing more pitches into his mix this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so,

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[SPEAKER_01]: just how good those those other pitches wind up being and how that maybe transforms his arsenal I think is going to be really fascinating and because of that uncertainty but also just the flashes we've seen in the fall.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like a floor comes out in the change of his grade and he has also got a curve ball that looks like another weapon to the fastball slider.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think he could easily wind up being the SP1 with the strong season and in the same way that Liam Peterson,

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[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like has some clear areas to address and I could see him tackling those as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You've written a lot about some of the mechanical tweaks he's made, the fact that his curveball is sneakily like one of the better pitches in college baseball, but that's another pitch that he really just didn't use that much.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If he becomes even more of this north-south extreme profile, if he adds another wrinkle to his fastball by working in the two seam in addition to the four seam,

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[SPEAKER_01]: And on top of all that, I think he's maybe the one picture of this group that needs to make the most strides in the command department.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But that's kind of where my mentality is at for all these pictures.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I feel like while Fluki is SP1 in some ways from like a what we're excited to see and watch the spring, Flora and Peterson are maybe the more interesting arms.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's fair.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think with Flora specifically, because of the amount of changes he's made to the arsenal and even some pitches that were already existing in the arsenal, so like his fastball apparently is playing differently than it did last year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And it was a really good pitch.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It was 18 inches IVB, super flat approach, minus 4.61, you've got a 27 percent.

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[SPEAKER_02]: 27% miss rate with that pitch less spring so yeah 27% miss the chase is also roughly 27% and then extension wise he gets down the mound exactly like fluky does they have at almost an identical extension number so the fastball was already good what exactly it means that he's changed it now it makes me

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm super intrigued to see exactly what that looks like.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He actually wasn't great last year when it came to using his fastball against left-handed hitters.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They just saw it better and one of the things that they paid attention to, and I say, they, I mean, UCSB, which is one of the premier college pitch-developing programs in the country.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like Andrew check its U.S. coaches on the lead.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Who's the guy who's going to turn somebody from zero to hero, it's answered check it's like he's not standing a pitch developer and so I do trust kind of where these changes are coming from and who is implementing them I have said before on the college pod.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think I might have even said it before on the draft pod.

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[SPEAKER_02]: My SP1.

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[SPEAKER_02]: When I kind of ranked these guy out, guys out going into the year is already Jackson Flora.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I've heard that the change up that he has, I don't want to say added because he's through a change up last year, but it's that new kick change, like very in kick change grip that you've already seen.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone's adding a kick change as off season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's the input pitch.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It is, and I think one of the reasons for that is because from everything I understand, you can kind of get away with just throwing it hard.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like you don't have to do anything to extreme in terms of like,

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[SPEAKER_02]: hand position and the way that you rotate around the baseball, that's not as important with this type of change up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think for florist specifically, that plays really well just with his sheer arm strength and arm speed.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And so that kind of fits seamlessly into the arsenal.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You mentioned the curve ball that he's been working on.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I don't actually think we're going to see that as much as maybe it's been talked about this off season to me.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That's more of a change of pace in between offering for the slider and the sweeper that he throws the sweeper is like.

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[SPEAKER_02]: comfortably plus to me.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So we're talking about an arm that has a arguably plus fastball that has a plus change up maybe from everything that I've heard from people.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The sweeper comfortably plus, I think the slider is at least average.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And then this curve ball variant that he's added to the mix fits somewhere maybe in that like average slightly below average range until further notice.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, your point about left handed hitters is interesting and I think it gets to kind of my questions about what the pitch mix is going to look like right handed hitters last spring managed just a 465 OPS against him and his pitch usage was 50% fastball 46% slider and 3% curve ball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: based on our synergy data that we have so basically an even split of fastball slider.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at how he attacks left handed hitters, the fastball rate jumps up to 64% the slider rate drops to 27% and you see a little bit more usage of the change of 6%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I think...

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[SPEAKER_01]: It makes sense to me intuitively that left-handed hitters do better against the fastball, just because it's more easy for them to sit on that pitch, kind of eliminate the slider or something they need to think about, to the same degree that right-handed hitters do.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so if you can just get another pitch that you feel comfortable throwing to lefties, I feel like you're going to unlock a whole new level with Florida.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that's definitely what I'm looking at with him.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And something that I think is interesting just based on the feedback that I was able to gather from the fall and then, you know, very shortly so far and in the lead up to the season that change up is something that he's already comfortable throwing it both sides of the plate, which is so like that's loud to me is that you have a right handed picture who.

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[SPEAKER_02]: didn't really use his change up at an extreme rate at all.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Last year has gone from using it as kind of this change of pace against left handed batters we struggled with to now throwing this to both sides of the plate and I have multiple evaluators telling me that it's a plus pitch.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Again, I think that

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[SPEAKER_02]: Flora has a really strong case to be SP1 right now and it wouldn't surprise me to see him really dominate in the conference that he's in, which will make it kind of like the Bremner situation where you're going to be in a really good spot if you're a team picking two, three, four, and you want a college arm that can move fast in your system.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think Flora is going to be able to fit that bill.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But again, I also think that that's true with Peterson and Flookie.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So like

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[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The best thing about this top of draft class for the college pitching is that it is really close.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I don't think that you are wrong to have a preference for any of these three guys.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like, there's no clear here to be at this stage.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think even among B.A.

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[SPEAKER_01]: staffers, like, your preference would probably be Florida.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Mine would be fluke right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think Ben Badler said he would take Peterson.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, like, just among us three, we all have different different opinions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the fact that they are close makes it interesting to watch.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But definitely good, good set of arms at the top of the college class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's move into some of these hitters a little bit further down in the first round, both Eric Booth, Jr., and Ryder Hellfreak, I think, too, the other notable guys to mention here in our first round conversation.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You said you're more excited about Eric Booth at this point.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It feels like increasingly everyone in the industry is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You break down the tools, the age, the athleticism,

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[SPEAKER_01]: The feel for the barrel pretty much the only thing that is a little bit suspect with with EJ booth is the swing is just a little bit unorthodox.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It looks unusual, but I've increasingly gotten more comfortable with hitters who just do it a bit oddly if they're showing you get a approach they're hitting the bar hard if they're making contact.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of hit how you hit and I'll leave the the mechanical fine tuning to the experts in that department, but Eric Booth Jr. now are top high school outfielder.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think both him and Blake Bowen right in the middle of the first round.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You can make compelling cases for either of those.

17:14.990 --> 17:18.015
[SPEAKER_01]: But what's your excitement level with Mr. Booth at this stage?

17:18.603 --> 17:27.524
[SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty high and to give people a look behind the curtain a little bit when we were having our conversation about how we were going to re-rack the the top 200 and guys who needed to move up.

17:28.386 --> 17:31.854
[SPEAKER_02]: I had Eric move higher than 15th, which is where he's going to enter the year.

17:31.874 --> 17:34.941
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's super exciting.

17:35.123 --> 17:36.705
[SPEAKER_02]: listen, he's got great speed.

17:36.986 --> 17:43.315
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that the tools to be able to go and play a premium position while being an impact bat are there.

17:44.056 --> 17:50.605
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not so scared at all by the potential of needing to rework some things mechanically with a high school hitter.

17:50.726 --> 18:01.401
[SPEAKER_02]: Like to me, if you can bring premium tools to the table and you do a lot of things well with bad mechanics, I have a hard

18:01.381 --> 18:11.074
[SPEAKER_02]: Outside of Brady Emerson, who's like very clearly the best high school player in this class, I don't know that there are a lot of high school guys that have like such screaming tools to me.

18:11.114 --> 18:15.299
[SPEAKER_02]: There are people who would argue that Tyler Spangler is in that category.

18:15.860 --> 18:28.857
[SPEAKER_02]: Jacob Lumbar and I know has a lot of supporters, but like for me, the speedy, athletic, good field of hit, really good instincts, center fielder is the most intriguing of that group.

18:28.837 --> 18:31.104
[SPEAKER_02]: I personally think we could have been more aggressive than 15th.

18:31.144 --> 18:32.890
[SPEAKER_02]: I like where we have them.

18:33.010 --> 18:40.635
[SPEAKER_02]: It would not surprise me if he ends up in the top 10 on our rankings and in the top 10 on draft day though, because it's a it's a really talented left-handed bat.

18:41.290 --> 18:46.838
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think, too, this is a profile that basically in the draft, very few teams are going to come way not liking.

18:47.059 --> 18:56.473
[SPEAKER_01]: For all the reasons you mentioned, he has extreme youth on his side, so the model heavy teams are still factoring in age for hitters, are really going to like him.

18:57.214 --> 19:04.044
[SPEAKER_01]: There are a number of teams picking in the back of the top 10 who I would associate with really weighing that heavily in their draft models.

19:04.965 --> 19:06.808
[SPEAKER_01]: And I hope, too, that

19:06.788 --> 19:24.088
[SPEAKER_01]: With booth this year, we can maybe start to move away from the skepticism about Mississippi high school hitters because at this point, I just think the way that hitters are developed and tested at the high school level with travel ball with showcases.

19:24.068 --> 19:40.525
[SPEAKER_01]: They're getting out of that area enough to get exposed to better pitching and better competition, and I just feel like the skepticism that was maybe warranted because Mississippi high school baseball is a little bit down relative to other states around them just doesn't really hold we've had so many good examples of young

19:40.505 --> 19:46.774
[SPEAKER_01]: hitters who've come out of the state in recent years, most notably Connor Griffin, the top prospect and baseball.

19:48.115 --> 19:49.057
[SPEAKER_01]: He's he's okay.

19:49.497 --> 19:58.710
[SPEAKER_01]: So I just think hopefully we don't have to hear about that too much this year and I even hesitate to even bring this up because I don't want to talk about it, but it would be nice if that goes away.

19:58.730 --> 19:59.391
[SPEAKER_01]: And I

19:59.371 --> 20:04.383
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that we have enough tools to evaluate players outside of the context of like the high school they play.

20:04.404 --> 20:06.248
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's Booth.

20:06.569 --> 20:09.737
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's get into Ryder health really quickly before we work with it further down the list.

20:11.521 --> 20:14.629
[SPEAKER_01]: For you, Ryder Health Freak versus Von Lackey for Catcher 1.

20:14.649 --> 20:16.654
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like it's a similar conversation.

20:16.634 --> 20:18.117
[SPEAKER_01]: to the pitching trio.

20:18.137 --> 20:23.648
[SPEAKER_01]: We're talking about at the top of the college class and it really wouldn't shock me at all if Helfer just went off this year.

20:23.708 --> 20:27.655
[SPEAKER_01]: Shout a little bit more contact and we're talking about him as a potential top 10 pick.

20:27.695 --> 20:29.098
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not in that range now.

20:29.138 --> 20:30.280
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got him in the back third.

20:31.282 --> 20:33.286
[SPEAKER_01]: But teams love college catchers.

20:33.426 --> 20:34.288
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're interested in this video,

20:34.268 --> 20:38.398
[SPEAKER_01]: 15s are feeling like he's definitely going to stick behind the plate and he's gotten a lot better feedback as a defender.

20:38.438 --> 20:44.272
[SPEAKER_01]: This offseason then I expected him to get the sort of impact that he brings to the table at that position.

20:44.292 --> 20:47.299
[SPEAKER_01]: It might be hard to pass on if he has another really strong year.

20:47.515 --> 21:03.464
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you just hit on the most important piece of this conversation, and that is who is going to end up being perceived as the better defender, because that will ultimately determine, in my opinion, which of these two catchers you mentioned, Von Lackey, and Ryder Helfreck, is viewed as catcher number one from the college ranks in this draft.

21:03.825 --> 21:05.929
[SPEAKER_02]: I think right now, based on what we know.

21:05.909 --> 21:26.922
[SPEAKER_02]: Von Lacky is, and this is reflecting in our rankings, the better prospect, and it's very marginal, but we know what Von Lacky brings to the table from a defensive standpoint, and the fact that he is so sure-handed, and this really clean receiver, and he calls a good game, and like all of the boxes that you could want a catcher to check

21:26.902 --> 21:27.943
[SPEAKER_02]: heading into their draft here.

21:27.983 --> 21:46.108
[SPEAKER_02]: I think Von Bakke checks or gets close to checking most of them whereas health rickets, it's more like, I mean, they actually think that the comparison that you made is really valuable between these two catchers and then the top of the pitching race, because it's like, to me, Ryder health rick is very much the jackson flora of the catching conversation.

21:46.088 --> 21:53.494
[SPEAKER_02]: where I think the conversation and the things that we're hearing are the right things and the momentum sounds like it's the right kind of momentum.

21:53.935 --> 21:56.637
[SPEAKER_02]: But the question becomes, what does it look like when the lights are on?

21:56.897 --> 22:02.082
[SPEAKER_02]: And I do wonder if he is going to be this really good receiver that we've heard about throughout the fall.

22:02.102 --> 22:06.145
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's going to call his own game for a very talented Arkansas pitching staff this year.

22:06.225 --> 22:07.086
[SPEAKER_02]: What does that look like?

22:07.286 --> 22:15.133
[SPEAKER_02]: Last year he caught 61 games for a team that went to the national semi-final and was a drop fly ball to let field away from

22:15.113 --> 22:21.606
[SPEAKER_02]: going to the National Championship over LSU, but I think that you were still need to see it.

22:21.646 --> 22:25.534
[SPEAKER_02]: Like last year was not the cleanest year behind the plate for health work.

22:25.554 --> 22:32.447
[SPEAKER_02]: It was much cleaner for lacking where I do think that health work has the edge though, is I trust the bat a lot more.

22:32.507 --> 22:35.333
[SPEAKER_02]: So if some ground is made up,

22:35.313 --> 22:41.670
[SPEAKER_02]: defensively and healthart kind of bridges that gap a little bit between him and Lackey on the defensive side.

22:42.171 --> 22:51.837
[SPEAKER_02]: I would probably take healthart first because I'm slightly more confident that he'll be the better hitter, whereas Lackey to me has some bat questions, but fewer defensive questions.

22:51.952 --> 22:52.954
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that'll make sense.

22:53.314 --> 22:59.284
[SPEAKER_01]: So last year, the top catch in the class, and maybe some people would put catcher in quotes because of the defensive questions.

22:59.304 --> 23:01.748
[SPEAKER_01]: But I guy-rich went 19th overall.

23:01.928 --> 23:03.070
[SPEAKER_01]: First catcher off the board.

23:03.631 --> 23:04.973
[SPEAKER_01]: Would you take the over under?

23:05.113 --> 23:08.659
[SPEAKER_01]: So do you think the first catcher this year will go before 19th or after 19th?

23:08.779 --> 23:11.203
[SPEAKER_01]: Our current board has them behind.

23:11.824 --> 23:18.955
[SPEAKER_01]: But I feel like if I had to make a prediction, it wouldn't shock me if one or both of these guys moved up in front of that 19 spot by the end of this spring.

23:19.272 --> 23:20.654
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll I'll take the under 19.

23:20.674 --> 23:25.581
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this is before before before that I was going to say I think it's before the 19th pick.

23:25.881 --> 23:40.201
[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't see the best college Catcher in this draft lasting until the 20s and especially because like I mean you brought up most important point there Which is that I Irish went 19th and is not really a catcher and these guys definitely are both of them.

23:40.381 --> 23:41.803
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd say

23:41.783 --> 23:51.716
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the, I feel like one of the key factors for me in taking the under is we currently have five high school pitchers ranked in front of both of them and if that remained the case on talent.

23:53.458 --> 24:01.648
[SPEAKER_01]: The whole spring that wouldn't shock me, but it's just so much easier for those players to go after that and get paid at that range than it is for the college catchers to do the same so.

24:01.628 --> 24:02.008
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.

24:02.069 --> 24:13.001
[SPEAKER_02]: That and I would say like there's a small group with a present group of college corner outfielders who are above these catchers and including some guys who have like hit tool questions.

24:13.022 --> 24:16.986
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, so your Stroke Snyder, I think is going to be an outstanding college player this year and I'm a huge fan of his.

24:17.407 --> 24:22.573
[SPEAKER_02]: But I also know that the industry has questions about whether or not that hit tool is going to hold up against professional pitching.

24:23.053 --> 24:25.296
[SPEAKER_02]: Is he a center fielder at the next level or corner bat?

24:25.316 --> 24:26.518
[SPEAKER_02]: I think is kind of still a question.

24:26.898 --> 24:29.281
[SPEAKER_02]: Egypt, Rossi, there's definitely a question about whether or not.

24:29.501 --> 24:30.302
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I don't even know.

24:30.282 --> 24:37.290
[SPEAKER_01]: You guys, you're mentioning right here, just notable slides down outside of the back of the top 10, more into our middle of the first on-range.

24:37.671 --> 24:42.537
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Grasius 17, Strosnight or 18, so they're inside the top 19 picks right now.

24:42.997 --> 24:50.866
[SPEAKER_02]: Do I think that there's going to be a team or multiple teams that want to take a college catcher over that corner outfield hit to a question profiles?

24:51.027 --> 24:53.129
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that that's probably pretty reasonable.

24:53.169 --> 24:58.095
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you go through who we have ranked ahead of those two catchers right now,

24:58.075 --> 25:08.505
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that you can easily get to like six or seven guys who I think that there's probably going to end up being some conversations about which profile you prefer and that it might help the catchers out a little bit.

25:08.525 --> 25:08.746
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

25:09.546 --> 25:09.827
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

25:09.907 --> 25:15.512
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are kind of all the notable first round names who are moving in the direction I feel like as we're talking about.

25:15.552 --> 25:18.775
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's break down a little bit further outside of this range.

25:19.336 --> 25:27.424
[SPEAKER_01]: Three of the most notable up arrow names just if you're looking at pure movement are

25:27.404 --> 25:28.826
[SPEAKER_01]: Just seemed super well-rounded.

25:29.787 --> 25:38.639
[SPEAKER_01]: The top of this group, Aiden Robbins, Halfielder, out of Texas, or at Texas University of Texas, he moves from 87 to 35.

25:38.699 --> 25:40.982
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got a lot of feedback that says he's just a slam dunk.

25:41.323 --> 25:43.465
[SPEAKER_01]: Top 50 prospects, so we put him in that range.

25:44.106 --> 25:47.871
[SPEAKER_01]: A little bit further down the board, we've got Logan Hughes, another Alfielder out of Texas.

25:47.911 --> 25:49.013
[SPEAKER_01]: He plays for Texas Tech.

25:49.353 --> 25:52.197
[SPEAKER_01]: He goes from not on our top 153.

25:52.177 --> 26:01.648
[SPEAKER_01]: And then maybe the guy that we've had the most internal chatter about in recent weeks and it seems to be becoming a really popular name around the country for everyone interested in the draft.

26:01.688 --> 26:03.630
[SPEAKER_01]: I got a lot of good draft questions about him in our chat.

26:03.650 --> 26:07.855
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's Kansas first basement, Brady Balinger, who moves from outside of our top 159.

26:08.115 --> 26:19.888
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like all three of these guys are pretty safe, top two round profiles at this stage and what stands out for all three is just really, really safe and proven offensive profiles.

26:20.189 --> 26:32.648
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep, that's it, and I'll start with Bounder because if you're a runner reader, you know that there has been no shortage of balance or content over the course of the last couple months, I'm a huge fan, like a huge, huge fan of Brady Bounder.

26:33.289 --> 26:39.558
[SPEAKER_02]: I will start by recognizing the flaws, which is that he is a first baseman from everything that we've heard so far.

26:39.658 --> 26:42.363
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a little bit of an undersized first baseman at that.

26:42.903 --> 26:46.669
[SPEAKER_02]: But the offensive ability is,

26:46.953 --> 26:50.358
[SPEAKER_02]: not bested by a lot of players in this draft class.

26:50.398 --> 26:53.443
[SPEAKER_02]: He is a really good pure hitter.

26:53.483 --> 26:56.788
[SPEAKER_02]: Last year, the EV was basically 90 miles per hour on average.

26:57.469 --> 26:58.831
[SPEAKER_02]: The barrel percentage, 32.9%.

27:00.013 --> 27:05.181
[SPEAKER_02]: There are times where he can be a little bit passive, but it comes more to me as like

27:05.161 --> 27:06.202
[SPEAKER_02]: very calculated.

27:06.242 --> 27:14.131
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a 36.6% overall swing rate, which translated to, you know, a sub 70 heart swing and sub 60% zone swing rate.

27:14.411 --> 27:22.459
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are low relative to college averages, especially for somebody who is a first basement and does kind of have the power hitter throw files slapped on him.

27:22.820 --> 27:24.181
[SPEAKER_02]: But the contact rates are really good.

27:24.241 --> 27:25.603
[SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't chase much out of his own.

27:26.163 --> 27:30.448
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he does a pretty good job overall just getting the bat to the ball and then the angles are outstanding.

27:30.488 --> 27:34.392
[SPEAKER_02]: He's

27:34.574 --> 27:43.886
[SPEAKER_02]: is pulled in the air, it was a 20.8% average launch angle, hard hit balls, it's a really good hitter.

27:44.407 --> 27:56.582
[SPEAKER_02]: And like if you break down the class with certain benchmarks in each of the important categories I'm talking like overall contact percentage, angles, chase rates, and then average EVs.

27:56.748 --> 28:05.023
[SPEAKER_02]: Brady Ballinger, there's like a very easy way to get him into a bucket that includes just guys like Rock Chalowski him and like a couple other players.

28:05.063 --> 28:08.149
[SPEAKER_02]: So the offensive skill is outstanding.

28:08.209 --> 28:17.727
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, it just now is the question of like how high will a pure first basement who has size questions go left handed hitter and I think that that'll limit the profile.

28:17.707 --> 28:32.592
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, one of the players that I think about as you're talking about his strengths as a hitter and I think Andrew Fisher might have a little bit more pop and thumb but I feel like Andrew Fisher and Brady Ballinger check a lot of the same boxes both are very selective hitters.

28:33.373 --> 28:37.420
[SPEAKER_01]: Their players who turn on the ball and put it in the air with great frequency.

28:37.400 --> 28:41.105
[SPEAKER_01]: I think maybe the nitpicks out have with with Balinger is just on average.

28:41.125 --> 28:42.708
[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't hit the ball quite as hard as Fisher.

28:42.768 --> 28:44.891
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe that'll change in his draft year this year.

28:44.951 --> 28:48.275
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's also just a little bit more passive within the strike zone.

28:48.476 --> 28:51.540
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that's one kind of question mark that that's scouts have.

28:51.580 --> 29:02.175
[SPEAKER_01]: If you really want to drill into what's the flaw in the offensive profile, it might be that both are players who last spring swung at a rate under 40%.

29:02.155 --> 29:04.860
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't really like more contact overall at your point.

29:05.140 --> 29:12.273
[SPEAKER_02]: He might not be swinging as much, but he actually did a better job of putting the bat on the ball, so there's given take there, but yeah, for sure.

29:12.313 --> 29:25.918
[SPEAKER_01]: So I do think that if he if he has a strong spring and you're looking at like, okay, work in this profile go like we just saw Andrew Fisher go right in the middle of the first round a year ago wouldn't shock me, balance your performance is way to that range either.

29:26.388 --> 29:27.690
[SPEAKER_02]: No, I agree with that.

29:27.810 --> 29:30.674
[SPEAKER_02]: And then, you know, just to transition us to the other two guys here.

29:31.675 --> 29:34.178
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep, two really exciting outflowers, Logan Hughes and Aden Robbins.

29:35.000 --> 29:41.128
[SPEAKER_02]: Robbins last year is the one that I kind of have circled on my preseason card here, just because it is a massive step up.

29:41.268 --> 29:45.534
[SPEAKER_02]: All of his success last year came at Seaton Hall, where his Logan Hughes did a Texas Tech.

29:45.934 --> 29:53.965
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, Aden Robbins is going to be asked to keep that up in the SEC, where I guarantee you it is much harder to accomplish, but the numbers are like,

29:53.945 --> 29:54.746
[SPEAKER_02]: eye popping.

29:54.806 --> 29:58.229
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a 91.5 average EV last year.

29:58.270 --> 30:14.026
[SPEAKER_02]: The swing rates, like he's an aggressive hitter who is also super polished when it comes to the swing decisions and what he's offering at, he chased at a 21% rate and had a heart swing rate of 80% 42.2% overall swing rate.

30:14.947 --> 30:23.496
[SPEAKER_02]: The knock if you're going to try and create one is not necessarily the rate of contact but what he's doing

30:23.476 --> 30:28.105
[SPEAKER_02]: more air contact is probably desirable for the eight robins profile.

30:28.165 --> 30:36.620
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that he does enough damage from a pure like exit velocity and strength standpoint that the power output could be better if you put the ball in the air with more consistency.

30:37.101 --> 30:44.134
[SPEAKER_02]: But again like that's if you're a pro team to give you know people listening to this kind of look into how the the cake is baked.

30:44.772 --> 30:47.557
[SPEAKER_02]: Pro teams are not that afraid of bad angles on guys.

30:47.597 --> 30:52.465
[SPEAKER_02]: Like if you have underlying strength and athleticism, I think angles review to something that are really fixable.

30:52.926 --> 31:04.806
[SPEAKER_02]: So Robbins to me is like, if he performs at even a fraction of what he was able to do at Seton Hall at Texas this year, we're talking about somebody who could push his way into the first round potentially.

31:05.107 --> 31:12.855
[SPEAKER_01]: in the difference, too, in this profile compared to Balinger, as we talk about him, and probably the same for Logan Hughes as well when we move into that conversation.

31:12.895 --> 31:14.858
[SPEAKER_01]: But Adorama is just a really good athlete.

31:15.859 --> 31:17.801
[SPEAKER_01]: We've heard from Scouts who think he can play all three.

31:18.381 --> 31:26.590
[SPEAKER_01]: Outfield spots convincingly, I'll be curious to see what the maybe the specifics are on the defense evaluations are the spring, but he runs really well.

31:26.730 --> 31:28.212
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a savvy base runner.

31:28.192 --> 31:31.475
[SPEAKER_01]: And his career seen Hall, he went 30 for 33 on the basis.

31:31.515 --> 31:36.901
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's just going to provide more defensive value, more base running value than a guy like Balinger is going to.

31:36.981 --> 31:51.796
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I do think the transition in conferences will be something that's interesting to watch, but if he's able to sort of maintain the hitting traits that he shown, another guy, we have him just outside of the first round, but it feels like a first round profile.

31:51.816 --> 31:56.781
[SPEAKER_01]: There might be a lot of those profiles this year that just gets squeezed out because the class is so good, but he certainly fits there.

31:57.250 --> 31:57.771
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.

31:57.791 --> 32:15.075
[SPEAKER_02]: And I was going to say, you know, I think that the numbers of quality players is going to be something that's going to be hard for some of these players to overcome, but that being said, like I have heard repeatedly from trusted sources on the evaluation side that eight robins is somebody who they already have in the first round on their respective boards.

32:15.556 --> 32:18.280
[SPEAKER_02]: So the feedback coming into the years.

32:18.260 --> 32:24.878
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's health-ric territory in terms of just how loud it's been, and the kind of the ground swell of support that exists.

32:24.918 --> 32:29.651
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I mean, I could absolutely see Robinson the first round, and I'll do one more time here.

32:29.671 --> 32:31.155
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll transition us again.

32:31.507 --> 32:32.869
[SPEAKER_02]: can see the same for Logan Hughes.

32:33.690 --> 32:35.633
[SPEAKER_02]: And this is somebody who did it at the power conference level.

32:35.673 --> 32:40.160
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's in absolute massure, 94 mile per hour average eggs of velocity.

32:40.260 --> 32:48.452
[SPEAKER_02]: If you put just the players who we've had a conversation about in the last five minutes here, Logan Hughes, Aden Robbins, Brady Ballinger, and Andrew Fisher from last year.

32:48.432 --> 33:04.500
[SPEAKER_02]: The hardest hitter of the baseball on average, and I will add that all of these guys have a sample of over 100 balls for Logan Hughes, it's over 150 he is the most bad at balls in the entire sample and his average V last year was 94 miles prior, which is the best of the group.

33:04.480 --> 33:06.564
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, misreads be damned.

33:06.704 --> 33:07.625
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't really care.

33:07.706 --> 33:11.733
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he is killing the same as the same as true for 90th max as well.

33:11.793 --> 33:18.945
[SPEAKER_01]: Like narrowly 9th topping Andrew Fisher, but like across the board and all of our like 3x of velocity check points like he is the best of the bunch.

33:19.027 --> 33:42.638
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep, 62% hard hit bait from last year, which is searing the ball constantly, he is the most aggressive swinger of the bunch at basically 45% overall swing rate and that number what's weird is like he's a super aggressive hitter overall, but when it comes to heart swing, he's the second worst of that group of four hitters who we just named 75%

33:42.618 --> 33:48.986
[SPEAKER_02]: Zoneswing 68.8% is also the second lowest, just above balinger, who's not even in the 60s.

33:49.387 --> 34:10.954
[SPEAKER_02]: He does chase a little bit, so like the aggression isn't as calculated, but like a 24% chase rate on somebody who's swinging the bat 45% of the time doesn't scare me, but and like Hayden Robbins, the conversation will again be what is the bad and ball profile, because it is not in the air as much as you would want for somebody who is like I said a killer of the baseball.

34:11.491 --> 34:20.059
[SPEAKER_01]: The player that this reminds me of from last year's class is almost like a Brandon Compton, but maybe with a little bit less top and power and a little bit more contact.

34:20.099 --> 34:25.464
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that contact area is key because Brandon Compton consistently had the strike out questions.

34:25.484 --> 34:29.107
[SPEAKER_01]: He struck out 23% of the time in his career at Arizona State.

34:30.048 --> 34:32.550
[SPEAKER_01]: Logan used his never struck out anywhere near that clip.

34:32.610 --> 34:34.412
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he did start his career at Stetson.

34:35.092 --> 34:41.498
[SPEAKER_01]: He performed well there, struck out 13.9%

34:41.478 --> 34:48.666
[SPEAKER_01]: 19 home runs, 13 doubles, OPS over 1100 with a sub 10% strikeout rate.

34:48.726 --> 34:56.855
[SPEAKER_01]: So even though most people seem to think he's definitely a corner outfit or moving forward, there's maybe less speed and athleticism to dream on from the defensive standpoint.

34:56.935 --> 35:08.127
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a really exciting, contact power combination and maybe among these players we're talking about today because he's already done it in a power conference, you maybe have the most conviction.

35:08.107 --> 35:10.009
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and his offensive traits.

35:10.029 --> 35:12.112
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think all three of these guys are exciting.

35:12.132 --> 35:14.275
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll if all three of these guys want up on the first round.

35:14.835 --> 35:15.476
[SPEAKER_01]: I wouldn't be shocked.

35:16.537 --> 35:26.429
[SPEAKER_02]: You, uh, those, those perfectly timed your exit out of that statement because I just ran a very, very crude brief last second, uh, data query here.

35:26.570 --> 35:36.662
[SPEAKER_02]: One thing that I love to do, I'll just like, what one thing I'm obsessed with is give me like certain benchmarks in certain categories and see how many guys fall into the bucket last year in college baseball.

35:36.642 --> 35:55.588
[SPEAKER_02]: There, these are the three categories that I filtered this down to in the time that you were saying your piece there average exit velocity 94 plus hard hit rate 60 plus percent zone contact rate 88 percent or higher there are two players who have a sample of more than three batted balls last year to that category.

35:55.709 --> 35:56.189
[SPEAKER_01]: Can I guess.

35:56.229 --> 35:56.450
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

35:56.750 --> 35:57.331
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you can.

35:57.531 --> 35:59.414
[SPEAKER_01]: Is one one was someone who's drafted last year.

35:59.434 --> 36:01.517
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm assuming correct.

36:01.537 --> 36:01.857
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

36:02.077 --> 36:04.000
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we're giving the thresholds a more time.

36:04.722 --> 36:15.477
[SPEAKER_02]: It is a 94 mile per hour exit velocity or harder, average at EV, a 60% or better hard hit rate, and an 88% overall contact rate or better.

36:15.577 --> 36:16.619
[SPEAKER_02]: It's own contact rate or better.

36:17.220 --> 36:19.443
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh man, and this is last spring.

36:19.463 --> 36:19.563
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

36:20.244 --> 36:24.570
[SPEAKER_01]: Ah, the chat I tell you that he was drafted?

36:24.931 --> 36:25.572
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure, sure.

36:26.093 --> 36:27.635
[SPEAKER_02]: He was a third round pick.

36:29.758 --> 36:33.463
[SPEAKER_02]: Third out of a power conference.

36:33.578 --> 36:42.905
[SPEAKER_02]: And I will also have that he is like our friend Logan Hughes, a hard hitting right handed hitting corner out filter.

36:45.452 --> 36:47.638
[SPEAKER_01]: Hard hitting right hand corner out filter.

36:49.475 --> 36:51.958
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's see, I won't take that too much, is it?

36:52.058 --> 36:53.399
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it Ethan Frey?

36:53.980 --> 36:55.161
[SPEAKER_02]: It is Ethan Frey.

36:55.401 --> 36:56.342
[SPEAKER_02]: That was quite a long time.

36:56.402 --> 36:56.903
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at you.

36:57.223 --> 36:57.764
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

36:57.904 --> 37:03.370
[SPEAKER_02]: The two college baseball players last year, who produced, I will just reiterate.

37:03.390 --> 37:04.391
[SPEAKER_02]: Correct you.

37:04.411 --> 37:19.127
[SPEAKER_02]: A 94 mile per hour average exit velocity or better, a 60% hard to hit rate or higher, and an 88% zone contact rate are better.

37:19.664 --> 37:20.044
[SPEAKER_01]: Beautiful.

37:20.084 --> 37:20.485
[SPEAKER_01]: I love that.

37:20.565 --> 37:22.787
[SPEAKER_01]: What a great query that was run in real time there.

37:22.847 --> 37:24.970
[SPEAKER_01]: So nice, Jacob.

37:24.990 --> 37:25.230
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

37:25.250 --> 37:34.100
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I hate to end the podcast on a downnote, but maybe we're talking about some of the players that are moving down and maybe some of the questions and rationale for that.

37:34.120 --> 37:36.502
[SPEAKER_01]: But there is a decent chunk of college names.

37:36.562 --> 37:40.146
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, a lot of the talk today has been focused on colleges, happens.

37:40.246 --> 37:42.949
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the case for the bigger movers.

37:43.049 --> 37:44.811
[SPEAKER_01]: But I just feel like,

37:44.791 --> 38:06.175
[SPEAKER_01]: There are a lot of these questionable profiles that maybe just have had more questions over the past few weeks and months of us collecting feedback, we continue to slide, Kate and Bogumpole down, and I think, at least from our perspective, that has as much to do with us being a little bit too aggressive with where we started him out as anything, and they're just significantly more hit to concerns, and I think we were probably

38:06.155 --> 38:12.866
[SPEAKER_01]: expecting for him to have at the start, in addition to competition questions, the ankle questions he has.

38:12.906 --> 38:19.296
[SPEAKER_01]: Daniel Kueve is another player who's moving down, corner in filter out of Miami.

38:19.637 --> 38:21.700
[SPEAKER_01]: I think for him it's mostly just...

38:21.680 --> 38:31.552
[SPEAKER_01]: a lot of people think he's likely to move to first base and while the production with Miami has been pretty phenomenal, there are a lot of underlying like pure hit questions, approach questions, swing and miss questions.

38:32.353 --> 38:46.950
[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's this duo of Steven Mylem and Jared adventula, Jared adventula, excuse me, are in this middle infielder bucket or like really solid college players and we're just getting a lot of impact power questions.

38:46.970 --> 38:50.134
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're moving all these guys down

38:50.114 --> 38:54.799
[SPEAKER_01]: pointing those names out, because I do think they're the most notable names trending down.

38:55.400 --> 38:57.663
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, where do you want to start?

38:57.683 --> 38:59.104
[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about Bogum pole a lot.

38:59.124 --> 39:01.587
[SPEAKER_01]: Some curious where you're out with my lemon and adventula.

39:02.428 --> 39:15.683
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say this is a profile in general that I'm a little bit more skeptical of, and so I thought made sense to move them down based on just my personal preferences and also the feedback, but I feel like it's just very hard

39:17.350 --> 39:26.802
[SPEAKER_01]: to profile as a top 50 player, which I think we've had both these guys in that top 50 range of various points, when the impact is that much of a question.

39:26.862 --> 39:33.510
[SPEAKER_01]: Particularly in the case of myelum where I'm not quite as convinced, he's definitely a shortstop, although he'll get a chance to prove it this year.

39:33.530 --> 39:44.303
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think for both these players, maybe Edvin Killa has less questions about whether he can play shortstop at the next level, but if they can just show more power, that would be really huge for their profiles.

39:44.603 --> 39:54.598
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, I think that the key will start with the vinculate, the bat is like exceptionally light, and that is a concern.

39:55.219 --> 40:14.087
[SPEAKER_02]: Last year, we saw him just I don't know to go over the rod numbers themselves, but like these are the categories where he was well below average, average EV, 90th percentile EV and max EV were all either reason like roughly average or clearly below clearly below being the average eggs of velocity.

40:14.067 --> 40:15.608
[SPEAKER_02]: This is the one that scares me the most.

40:15.688 --> 40:19.692
[SPEAKER_02]: The chase rate was over 30% last year, which is well below average.

40:19.812 --> 40:26.958
[SPEAKER_02]: And then like for somebody who's an undersized middle infielder, like defensive first table setting type, that is an astronomically high number.

40:27.018 --> 40:31.222
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a nearly 50% swinger who's chasing over 30%.

40:31.583 --> 40:32.784
[SPEAKER_02]: He does make a lot of contact.

40:33.004 --> 40:42.252
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think you kind of save yourself there a little bit to 91% zone contact rate 87% overall contact rate, both of those numbers are well above average.

40:42.232 --> 40:46.740
[SPEAKER_02]: the air pole and all of the launch angle categories are also below average.

40:47.181 --> 40:59.262
[SPEAKER_02]: And so you're talking about a player who needs to do a ton in terms of like he's got he's got to be an outstanding contact hitter this year in the ACC.

40:59.242 --> 41:03.808
[SPEAKER_02]: to change people's minds while also showing that he has the chops to play a premium position.

41:04.328 --> 41:06.852
[SPEAKER_02]: Otherwise, it's a really hard profile to get behind.

41:06.892 --> 41:10.296
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that you can say the same thing about Steven Milo.

41:10.316 --> 41:17.905
[SPEAKER_02]: He is a seriously undersized five foot seven five foot eightish switch hitting shortstop.

41:17.925 --> 41:23.933
[SPEAKER_02]: I do think that he could probably play the position, but an undersized lighter hitting

41:23.913 --> 41:38.759
[SPEAKER_02]: short stop even if he makes a lot of contact is not going to get a lot of favor on draft day and and he does do a better job of putting the ball in the air but like almost at a rate that you wish he wouldn't considering how hard he hits the ball.

41:38.960 --> 41:46.393
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not being like in the power hit or category like you would want to see him almost be a little bit more of a line drive hitter and like punishing gaps.

41:46.373 --> 41:48.736
[SPEAKER_02]: and then using his athleticism and he doesn't do that.

41:49.698 --> 41:56.026
[SPEAKER_02]: And so those were the concerns that came up for us and both in terms of the conversations we were having and then we were hearing in the industry.

41:56.387 --> 42:13.871
[SPEAKER_01]: The way I would frame like how we compare and contrast, early to how I'm viewing them, is at vincula, you have a little bit more confidence in the shortstop defense, and my alum, there's a little bit more selectivity and a little bit more thump, but also significantly less confidence in the shortstop defense profile.

42:13.911 --> 42:14.592
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think right.

42:14.572 --> 42:20.187
[SPEAKER_01]: Mylum might be the guy that I think has a chance to move up to a greater degree.

42:20.247 --> 42:25.903
[SPEAKER_01]: This spring, just because I think if he goes out and he looks like an average sure stop and people are like, yeah, he can stick there.

42:26.284 --> 42:30.876
[SPEAKER_01]: Then some of the flaws in this profile that we're pointing out will be a little bit.

42:30.856 --> 42:40.728
[SPEAKER_01]: It would be more forgiving towards them, and there just seems to be a greater threshold of impact that he has compared to a vincula, both are guys that are close to maxed out.

42:40.748 --> 42:50.279
[SPEAKER_01]: I wouldn't expect them to have huge physical gains in the future, but it is maybe interesting to think about the five foot, eight hundred and eighty-five pound guys is having a little bit more thump.

42:50.359 --> 42:56.526
[SPEAKER_01]: So, my Lump does have a double digit home run season under his belt, yet eight home runs as a freshman.

42:56.506 --> 43:02.307
[SPEAKER_01]: 11, as a sophomore in 2025, Edvin Killa has hit 11 total in his two years at Cal.

43:02.327 --> 43:04.896
[SPEAKER_01]: So guess what to see with those guys moving forward?

43:06.040 --> 43:10.427
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, I think that it's a tough profile to have.

43:10.467 --> 43:14.473
[SPEAKER_02]: The undersized middle in field, like you have to be so good as a defender.

43:15.034 --> 43:18.860
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll give for people who are interested in like the pro prospect side of this conversation.

43:18.880 --> 43:29.196
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll liken this and you can slow me down if you want, but I'll liken this almost a little bit to like Starlin Kaba and the conversations that we had about him in the Marlin system and where he should rank.

43:29.176 --> 43:58.035
[SPEAKER_02]: undersized shortstop with a light bat who is an outstanding like top of the scale 80 defender at shortstop he will 100% play the position almost regardless of who offensively is on a team with him regardless of level like that's the guy you're gonna put at shortstop because he's so good at the position but the bat is is so light that like there are conversations that need to be had about how much value you can put on him from a prospect standpoint and a ranking standpoint

43:58.015 --> 44:23.061
[SPEAKER_02]: Because that's what happens with these guys and like I don't know that either player who we're talking about right now, in addition to having back questions, makes up enough ground defensively to like outdo somebody who is in their category already as a pro, like a Kaba who is undersized light at the plate, but so tremendous at short stop that you're going to forgive a lot of sins offensively because it's somebody who's going to create value somewhere else.

44:23.041 --> 44:29.187
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't yet see that, not saying I won't going into this season, at least I don't know that you could say that about a vinculate or mine.

44:29.207 --> 44:29.307
[SPEAKER_01]: No.

44:29.467 --> 44:31.189
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't think you can't pray that over the moment.

44:31.209 --> 44:43.721
[SPEAKER_01]: Vinicula's a guy who spent the basically the entirety of his college career at Second Base now and is only going to slide over to the position, so I could even be high now talking about how I view him defensively, both of them still have to go prove it and do it.

44:43.881 --> 44:49.386
[SPEAKER_01]: So, unless you want to hit on one of these other down arrow guys, Jacob, I think we can

44:49.366 --> 44:56.978
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of wrap things here, but I will give you a final comment if you have something that you want to add on anyone or the top 200 list as a whole.

44:57.118 --> 44:59.261
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk about two players real quick.

44:59.281 --> 45:06.392
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to talk about Caden Bogum pole because I do think that there's like an interesting range of comparison that exists to players who were drafted last year.

45:06.412 --> 45:18.310
[SPEAKER_02]: Those being Nolan Schubert at Oklahoma State who went in the third round and Jason Lavalette who obviously was the top

45:18.290 --> 45:20.013
[SPEAKER_01]: in the 20s to the Guardians.

45:20.333 --> 45:21.154
[SPEAKER_02]: In the 20s, okay.

45:21.174 --> 45:26.382
[SPEAKER_02]: So those three profiles are remarkably similar in just about every category.

45:26.502 --> 45:29.046
[SPEAKER_02]: Average EVs are almost exactly the same across the board.

45:30.408 --> 45:33.873
[SPEAKER_02]: They swing, that's probably the biggest difference between them.

45:33.933 --> 45:36.417
[SPEAKER_02]: No one's shoebark is the most aggressive swinger.

45:36.397 --> 45:41.606
[SPEAKER_02]: of the bunch, but Jace and Caden Bogum pole both in that 35, 36% range.

45:42.207 --> 45:44.831
[SPEAKER_02]: Jace a little bit more selective on pitches inside the zone.

45:44.851 --> 45:48.076
[SPEAKER_02]: The contact rates are nearly identical for all three of them.

45:48.457 --> 45:51.682
[SPEAKER_02]: The chase rates are basically identical for Bogum pole and Lavelette.

45:52.043 --> 46:00.216
[SPEAKER_02]: No one's shoebark Jace is a little bit more and then the biggest separator between those three guys is how they put their best contact onto the field.

46:00.316 --> 46:02.640
[SPEAKER_02]: Last year, in air pole percentage,

46:02.620 --> 46:07.309
[SPEAKER_02]: Nolan Schubert 55.1%, it's the reason that there are so many people who still love him.

46:07.769 --> 46:16.385
[SPEAKER_02]: Even though he swings in misses a lot, even though there's questions about how much he's going to hit, when he puts the ball in the air, he's doing damage because he's going to kill it, and it's going to go super far.

46:16.786 --> 46:21.675
[SPEAKER_02]: Chase Lavalette pretty much the exact same thing, angles are really good, capable of being super strong.

46:21.655 --> 46:25.503
[SPEAKER_02]: The majority of Caden Bogenpol's contact is on the ground.

46:25.563 --> 46:31.455
[SPEAKER_02]: His best contact on a line, he is not, he, last year, his air pole percentage was 26.5%.

46:32.297 --> 46:39.752
[SPEAKER_02]: That is 21% lower than J. Slavella Lett, who came in almost 10% lower than Nolan Schubert.

46:39.812 --> 46:42.077
[SPEAKER_02]: So, my point is,

46:42.158 --> 46:43.259
[SPEAKER_02]: They are built the same way.

46:43.279 --> 46:45.321
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that they swing the same way.

46:45.361 --> 47:01.037
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that the vision for a left-handed hitting probably long-term corner outfield prospect is very similar between all three of those guys, but the critical difference in the reason he fell was because Bo Gunpulse contact quality as hard as it is, is not very good.

47:01.137 --> 47:03.459
[SPEAKER_02]: He is a good guy and he's way too selective.

47:03.559 --> 47:05.361
[SPEAKER_02]: So that was the problem with Bo Gunpone.

47:05.381 --> 47:06.522
[SPEAKER_02]: I wanted to bring that up.

47:06.542 --> 47:08.284
[SPEAKER_02]: And then the other guy is Cole Carloan.

47:08.264 --> 47:10.267
[SPEAKER_02]: We moved him down ahead of the year.

47:10.327 --> 47:15.075
[SPEAKER_02]: He arguably has some of the best stuff among the college left handed pitching demographic in this class.

47:15.836 --> 47:19.602
[SPEAKER_02]: It was down arrow because we don't know what the role is going to be long term.

47:19.622 --> 47:24.249
[SPEAKER_02]: It sounds like there is still questions about will he be a starter or a reliever.

47:24.390 --> 47:30.199
[SPEAKER_02]: I can actually say in real time updating on this podcast he will start opening night for Arizona State.

47:30.419 --> 47:32.803
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, that is I think

47:32.783 --> 47:53.067
[SPEAKER_02]: more a matter of circumstance and like who else is there around him and it puts errors on a state in a position where it's like you need this guy to start if your errors are to state for you to be as good as you can possibly be so you go and you give him the opportunity almost like a game gackle last year got the opportunity to start and then didn't necessarily go the way they wanted to so they put him back in the bullpen.

47:53.407 --> 47:54.869
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this guy is similar to that.

47:55.730 --> 47:57.272
[SPEAKER_02]: We just didn't

47:57.252 --> 48:04.341
[SPEAKER_02]: We don't think that there's enough confidence in him as a starting pitcher to rank in prominently yet, but I could see him getting up or down based on how that goes.

48:05.062 --> 48:07.645
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, those reliever questions are our significant with him.

48:07.685 --> 48:16.636
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy who's made two starts in his college career in 55 total appearances with Arizona State and just the erratic nature of his strike throwing.

48:16.777 --> 48:25.808
[SPEAKER_01]: He did make some strides in that department as a 13.7 percent walk rate in 24, lower to 11.3% in 2025, but that's still a rate higher than you'd

48:25.788 --> 48:28.473
[SPEAKER_01]: for someone who profiles as a starter at the next level.

48:28.513 --> 48:32.861
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you can answer that question, I think his stuff fits top 50 pretty safely.

48:33.121 --> 48:36.087
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a really electric arm, but that's the area he needs to address.

48:36.107 --> 48:39.874
[SPEAKER_01]: So glad you hit on both those players here down the stretch.

48:40.335 --> 48:41.797
[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob, good insight there.

48:42.318 --> 48:44.001
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, we're close now.

48:44.202 --> 48:45.765
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, one more podcast.

48:45.785 --> 48:49.872
[SPEAKER_01]: Before we have actual games going on, then we'll be breaking down

48:49.970 --> 48:51.792
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we're actually seeing what's happening.

48:51.812 --> 48:52.433
[SPEAKER_01]: It'll be fun to do.

48:52.473 --> 48:59.440
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like we spent so long talking about expectations and previewing and who we're excited about and sleepers and it'll be really fun to talk about.

48:59.460 --> 49:01.683
[SPEAKER_01]: I just saw X last weekend.

49:01.743 --> 49:03.445
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm looking forward to that.

49:04.206 --> 49:06.148
[SPEAKER_01]: Check out the site, plenty of good content there.

49:06.348 --> 49:07.770
[SPEAKER_01]: Conference previews are being rolled out.

49:08.210 --> 49:10.172
[SPEAKER_01]: We got a lot more draft content.

49:10.513 --> 49:11.694
[SPEAKER_01]: Just get you ready for the season.

49:12.295 --> 49:16.399
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll have a piece on our annual kind of first round to do list piece.

49:16.379 --> 49:18.943
[SPEAKER_01]: ahead of the season getting getting rolling.

49:18.983 --> 49:25.614
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm also really excited for our annual player draft that myself Jacob and Ben will probably do before the season gets rolling as well.

49:25.734 --> 49:26.736
[SPEAKER_01]: So thank you guys for listening.

49:26.776 --> 49:33.627
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for supporting baseball America, subscribing, allowing us to do all this content and travel across the country to tell you guys about these players.

49:33.928 --> 49:36.031
[SPEAKER_01]: We really do appreciate it for Jacob.

49:36.232 --> 49:36.693
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Carlos.

49:36.953 --> 49:37.594
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see you next time.