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[SPEAKER_00]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Invest Talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Investock.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is our February 26th, 2020 6th edition of Investock.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I am host Justin Klein and my objective here is to unpack the news of the day.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A lot going on.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We had in video earnings after hours yesterday.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a bit of a flop, despite being estimates, and this is another good example of you can't just rely on those headline numbers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's really about how the market reacts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And ultimately, that will determine future direction typically.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And tells you a lot more about where the stock is headed than that, like I said, those headline numbers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So this is what kind of drew the market down today and we had more interesting news after hours when it came to block, block the old square and then laid off a bunch of workers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, the question is, is that the AI?

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[SPEAKER_01]: predictions making landfall, or is this just a right sizing of the workforce after massively expanding their workforce during COVID, and I would say it's a little bit of both.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We can talk about that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We can talk about whatever is on your mind during this hour.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's what this hour is for.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's for you for me to hear what you have to say, questions that are on your mind, and for me to give you my perspective and the data that I have in front of me, the data that have in my head developed over 25 years of investment experience.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what this hour is for now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And just to be able to talk about today's market performance and run down the show topics, but as usual, we'll tackle this first color question now.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Hey, this is Don from Durham, North Carolina.

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[SPEAKER_08]: Thanks so much for the show.

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[SPEAKER_08]: I'm interested in what you think at EMR Immersional Electric.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Recently, I like the company and just a little nervous about whether it's really going to keep going or you think it's going to probably pull back so I'm looking for an interesting point for EMR.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks a lot, my brother.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All right, looking at Emerson Electric, EMR is the symbol and this is another good example of why you can't just take the name at face value because while Emerson is certainly a very solid industrial name and it does have its roots, roots excuse me in electric.

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[SPEAKER_01]: and electricity and everything surrounding the industrial applications of electricity, they're much more than that these days.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They have, they put in control systems, intelligent control systems, software control systems, as well as they have measured measurement and elliptical systems as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: side of their business as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not a pure play, automation company, like a rock well, but it does have a significant component of that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's important to to delineate right now, especially as AI is taking off and applying that to robotics, is certainly something that the trend that's probably not changing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, I generally like this, it is in the solid uptrend, relative strength is 78.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, as you can see, it's pretty much outperforming earnings are expected to be up 8% this year, 10% next year, and those estimates continue to go higher.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Those trading have been a market market premium, but I think that's certainly justified, because their expertise is becoming more and more valuable.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you can see that with its operating margins near and all time high.

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[SPEAKER_01]: actually add in all time I excuse me.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So clearly, they have some strengths that the market is liking this a lot, they have a very clean balance sheet only $10 billion in debt on an $85 billion market cap and free cash flow now is at about $2.5 billion and fairly steady.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I have really no issues with owning Emerson.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, is it the best

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[SPEAKER_01]: company to hang your hat on probably not but I like the diversity of their business overall and I'm going to give Emerson a thumbs up that's EMR.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thursday, and we are here to tackle whatever is on your mind.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have a lot to cover over the next 45 minutes or so.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And what's on my mind, and probably a lot of investors' mind, is gold.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Gold is $5,000, basically, plateau that it's been at for the last couple of months.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And gold is gathering momentum.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a little bumpy lately, but overall the trend is higher.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Geopolitical tensions are on the rise, inflation concerns are not changing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the traditional safe haven of treasuries are being tested and you're starting to see gold being treated as the new safe haven.

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[SPEAKER_01]: as geopolitical instability continues to rise.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to look into deeper into what's going on in that market and whether or not it can regain its strong upper momentum in the coming months.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We also have the topics on the docket.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We'll look at the commercial real estate industry and how

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[SPEAKER_01]: those loans that have been kind of kicked, the can has been kicked for a number of years, really since 2023, the linkhoods he's a bit on the rise, going from a low of around one and a half percent during 2022 and rates were rock bottom to all the weights up to 12 and a half percent today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So what does that mean for that industry?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then also insider ownership of stock, when they buy a stock, is that good over the short term or the long term or not?

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[SPEAKER_01]: We'll dig into that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We also have voice bank calls, one is on the Vanic Uranium and Nuclear ETF and LR as well as Sincora, COR is the symbol on that one.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll get to those voice bank questions and also your questions that came in via the comment section on our Investor YouTube channel as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And with that said, I want to hear from you, your live listeners, even

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you're listening after hours, great.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We call a to date 99 chart leave a message.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're answering our future show, but we also love those live calls.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you call us now, you will get to the front of the line.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If we're going to a break, please remember you can call any time and leave your question on the Investor voice bank.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're listening via our live stream or possibly an able to hold 20 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at a to date 99 chart hang on next, because I will be talking about today's market activity.

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[SPEAKER_02]: When you tell your friends about Investork and they ask you why you listen, let them know there are many reasons and one is Parallel Investing from KPP Financial and Investorkose Justin Klein.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Parallel investing means Justin invests right alongside KPP financial clients.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He makes the same trade for KPP financial on the same day at the same price and the same percentages as KPP clients.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's no front running and no special treatment.

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[SPEAKER_02]: In this way, Justin and KPP financial share the same risks and the same potential for success.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Parallel Investing aligns the interests of Justin and KPP Financial with those of his clients.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Justin, Klein and Luke Guerrero are ready to answer your questions about Parallel Investing.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And you can learn more any time at Investalk.com.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Now with 62 million downloads.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Investalk 88899 chart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now we are thrilled to announce our third annual Invest Talk Market Man is Contest.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, it is that time.

08:54.656 --> 09:00.866
[SPEAKER_01]: Instead of basketball brackets, we'll be watching companies perform head-to-head in an epic showdown.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so, third year doing it, Invest Talk Participants can compete $4,000 grand prize and demonstrate their market price by locking in their stock victory.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The predictions, excuse me.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now to get this, if the contest, and get this, if the contest winner is also following the investor of YouTube channel, will bump that grand prize up to $1,500.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're ready to test your skills, in this unique competition, don't wait.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What the clock is ticking head over to our website and searching vestalk market madness to fill out your bracket before the deadline on March 18th at 11.59 p.m. Let's go look at the market today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It was a negative day overall, but mainly I was driven by earnings from Nvidia.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And this is a great example of

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[SPEAKER_01]: market expectations, least top line being built, being beat, even bottom line being beat, ahead of consensus.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But the market reacted negatively.

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[SPEAKER_01]: No, I was in a terrible reaction, and the video down about five and a half percent on the day, not crazy, but considering a,

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[SPEAKER_01]: $10 billion ramp up in revenue from the previous quarter, 77% year-over-year growth in Q4, it guided to 75% gross margins and expected very high margins going forward.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So everything looked good, guidance was good, but the market reaction was negative and it brought down a lot of companies within the hardware space,

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[SPEAKER_01]: In AI, you're talking about names like Broadcom, and Micron, and AMD, Intel, and Finale, etc.

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[SPEAKER_01]: These are all names that were down a bit today, but the rest of the market was mostly green.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You had companies like Meta, Oracle, IBM, CRM, and that was really the driver, I think, of that part of the market being better, which was earnings from Salesforce.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's CRM.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a bit better than expected.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So even though the guidance was fairly light and they'd are worried a bit about AI disruption, those kind of baked in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so it wasn't as bad as expected, because the stock was down nearly 28% you today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so it bounced back in a lot of other names within the space rallied in conjunction with it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that was the positive in market.

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[SPEAKER_01]: a different flavor than you've seen all year where hardware names were rallying and software names were falling.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You had a bit of a counter trend rally and sell off in both of those sectors.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Retail, struggle, dams on, and Walmart would both down about 1% same with Costco.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You had some strength out of, what is this?

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[SPEAKER_01]: What's that, there's this?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Communication services.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that was strong, industrials were strong as well, waste management up to 1.5%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of a mixed bag, and you did see the dow e-cout a bit of a gain.

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[SPEAKER_01]: S-bue is down about half a percent.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Nasdaq down a little over 1%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: on the day treasuries were a bit firmer yields down three to four basis points.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So continue worries about the deflationary impact of AI and a weaker economy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think overall and let's see what else.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Dollar index was up 0.1%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Gold finished down 0.6%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Silver down 4.4%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: on the day Bitcoin features down 2.6 after jumping 7.2% on Wednesday.

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[SPEAKER_01]: WTI did settle down again about 0.3% as

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[SPEAKER_01]: looks, there's some headlines that U.S. Iran talks are a bit constructive, even though I still think they'll probably do something on that front, but we shall see that was, and that was kind of the market today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We did have initial jobless claims coming in at 212,000 consensus, right in line with consensus, although the prior week was upperly revised a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So labor market continues to be kind of so-so.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Bill's pivot over and check on a question that came in via the Invest talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Actually, I had an iTunes review.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I love these love.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I love and appreciate our five star reviews over on iTunes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Jojo says, if you days ago, I took position in Coke.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, sorry, CEO.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

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[SPEAKER_01]: See, okay.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There we go.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And your thoughts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: on their outlook and debt.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Great question.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What does their debt look like?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Something that most people don't pay attention to, but when you're looking at these consumer durable, you know, consumer staple companies.

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[SPEAKER_01]: the debt tends to matter a lot because they pay the dividends and people like those dividends, but are those dividends sustainable with a level of debt.

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[SPEAKER_01]: For this company, pretty small amount of debt, only about two and a half billion dollars in net debt with free cash flow, about 600 million, they're for their payout.

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[SPEAKER_01]: ratios only about 20% meaning they have plenty of money to left over to buy back shares, to pay down their debt, maintain their debt, etc.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I see no issues really with it and the technicals are very strong.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A relative strength is 91, 91, last quarter revenues of 9% earnings up 17%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So the market certainly is rewarding.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This name, and frankly, money is flowing out of consumer discretionary into consumer staples, like Coke.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I generally like this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let me take a look here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I know there's a lot of difference.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So this is more of a

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[SPEAKER_01]: is certainly doing much better than Coke itself.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I like it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I like the trend that it's overbought.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I will say this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is overbought.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Came back in today, down about a third of one percent.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But if this can get back into the 170-175 range, right now we're trading that around $200 per share, that's probably where I'd pick up COK.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're moving into a break.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And next, we're going to take a live call, Richard, from Cupertino, hang on, you will be next.

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[SPEAKER_02]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Now the torch has been passed and a new generation of hosts is on the job, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call in Vestock, 888-99-Chart.

15:58.750 --> 16:06.560
[SPEAKER_01]: When he was Dr. Richard, as I said in Cupertino, looking at Bank of Nova Scotia B and S. Yona, look at the bike.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Hi, I'm Edda, I've got 550 shares in my return account.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Kind of worried about Canada because you got part of Canada, very socialistic, and you got Alberta, dropping and wanting to become a 50 per state.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So I've done well with it.

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[SPEAKER_09]: 4.1% dividend, but I'm just wondering if it's run its course and I could probably go find something better.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well,

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[SPEAKER_01]: The stock price doesn't look like it's slowing down.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's just grinding higher.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, that's healthy, as opposed to some big, quick spike.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so I wouldn't be quick to hold it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it's had a big run and never know where the eventual top is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it is probably prudent maybe to trim a little and based on what that full acid allocation looks like.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What type of exposure do you have to financials to Canada itself, et cetera, and how much do you really need the yield also, because that's part of this picture.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not in a rush to sell it, but it is prudent for you to start thinking about maybe trimming the position to some degree.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I actually thought of maybe just selling half of it and see what happens.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I wouldn't say, so this is this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so this is an important concept that everybody should should internalize.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you're going to make a change to the portfolio, you need to have a plan.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Not just in that one position, but where is this money going?

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[SPEAKER_01]: What do I want that portfolio at the end of this rebalancing or end of this trimming to look like?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Do I need more industrials?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Do I need more foreign exposure?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Do I need more materials?

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[SPEAKER_01]: What am I going to do with this money?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Am I trying to de-risk?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Am I trying to go into maybe more

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[SPEAKER_01]: You need to have a plan for that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Don't just sell it 50, why 50%, why not 25%, why not 75%, it's where you want the end portfolio goal to look like.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Does that make sense?

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[SPEAKER_09]: Uh, yes, it does.

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[SPEAKER_09]: My, my first thought is to get into some retirement.

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[SPEAKER_09]: If I sell half, I can take my required minimum already.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Get that out of my hair, invest it in my regular portfolio count.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if that 50% roughly is equal to your RMD that you need to take anyway, and this is overweight in your portfolio or financials are overweight in your portfolio, you know, that's a good reason.

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[SPEAKER_01]: to potentially sell half or some of it to start that rebalancing process.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So yes, I think that's a good dot process, but overall you need to have an acid allocation goal.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's what we do for all of our different strategies.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have particular targets for positions, for sector allocation, based on the current market conditions, based on risk that we're trying to take in the portfolio, et cetera.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And everyone out there should be doing the exact same thing to some degree,

19:22.533 --> 19:41.224
[SPEAKER_01]: And so when you're making a change, you know, is this moving me closer to my broader goal or or not, you know, because a lot of times, what if this, what if you have one gold position, that's 10% of your portfolio, which might be a lot, but you don't, you want 15% in gold, right?

19:41.424 --> 19:44.950
[SPEAKER_01]: That means you probably need to trim elsewhere and add to your gold position.

19:45.351 --> 19:46.853
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just using that as an example.

19:46.833 --> 19:53.083
[SPEAKER_01]: So, this is the way to think about it, it's start kind of big picture, and then you focus on individual names like this.

19:53.123 --> 20:02.499
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, what I will say about bacon Nova Scotia in Canada and itself is, you know, there's not a lot of banks in Canada, and that's true for a lot of countries.

20:02.539 --> 20:04.622
[SPEAKER_01]: We're kind of an anomaly where we have...

20:04.602 --> 20:11.851
[SPEAKER_01]: Thousands of banks, both small and large here in the United States, and in over time, that's probably going to continue to consolidate to smaller and smaller number.

20:12.151 --> 20:16.396
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's already there in Canada, and so in many ways, these banks are utilities.

20:16.837 --> 20:27.609
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't think there's a ton of risk in the short-term, eventually long-term, who knows what happens with Canada, but don't, I wouldn't be super aggressive in selling it, because the trends are still positive.

20:27.630 --> 20:33.917
[SPEAKER_09]: Wow, yeah, a nice thing is, yeah, with my broker, actually I can move it over

20:34.252 --> 20:39.821
[SPEAKER_09]: percent interest with if that's keeping me breaks up for you.

20:40.262 --> 20:41.484
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to lose a lot.

20:41.725 --> 20:43.848
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but that's short term.

20:44.369 --> 20:57.171
[SPEAKER_01]: If the Fed, if Trump gets his way, they're going to probably cut rates pretty aggressively over the next couple of years, and that 4% short term money market rate that you're getting there are high threes is probably going to dip probably below

20:57.151 --> 21:03.498
[SPEAKER_01]: Low-three before the Trump's term is out so that's I wouldn't think of it that way Don't think of it.

21:03.538 --> 21:25.723
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I can get this yield in treasuries That's that's not the way to think about this because that can change Whereas banking those goes show they're probably not gonna be cutting their dividend materially any time soon So once again think of it more in the broader asset allocation have a plan and start to move You're self towards that plan and this could be part of that adjustment

21:25.703 --> 21:26.791
[SPEAKER_09]: appreciate your time.

21:26.892 --> 21:29.672
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for the call.

21:29.855 --> 21:31.717
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the next investor talk we'll look into this story.

21:32.198 --> 21:36.583
[SPEAKER_01]: The 24-7 stock market revolution, trading never sleeps.

21:36.603 --> 21:45.494
[SPEAKER_01]: The traditional 4-PM closing bell is becoming obsolete as stocks transformed into 24-7 digital cash with around the clock trading.

21:45.514 --> 21:52.603
[SPEAKER_01]: This fundamental shift in market structure is changing how investors think about timing, liquidity, and global market dynamics.

21:52.623 --> 21:58.090
[SPEAKER_01]: So that story is tomorrow, but for now, I'm Justin Klein, I'm ready to take your calls now on 8-899 chart.

22:09.882 --> 22:18.344
[SPEAKER_02]: The Best Dark Phone Lines Never Closed, and now, Justin Klein is here taking your calls live.

22:18.945 --> 22:22.795
[SPEAKER_02]: In Best Dark, 888-99, chart.

22:26.572 --> 22:45.087
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I mean, focus point today is about gold's $5,000 mountain, and what you've seen lately is a bit of a bumpy ride, a back and forth kind of choppy period, which should not shock anybody gold when a bit parabolic a couple months ago, and

22:45.067 --> 22:52.142
[SPEAKER_01]: you had to have an worship announcement and things have started to become like a set of bit more volatile even today.

22:52.202 --> 22:57.213
[SPEAKER_01]: You had a bit of volatility, but overall it is constructive.

22:57.313 --> 23:02.665
[SPEAKER_01]: So, let's talk a bit about can gold continue to go higher.

23:02.725 --> 23:05.691
[SPEAKER_01]: And then let's step back in.

23:06.160 --> 23:18.199
[SPEAKER_01]: After surging for many years, markets are starting to drive price, meaning investors are starting to drive the price of gold.

23:18.219 --> 23:20.963
[SPEAKER_01]: And there are, there's a story behind it.

23:20.983 --> 23:28.194
[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone loves a good story, markets tend to move based on stories, and we know that global risks are rising and certainty is rising.

23:28.294 --> 23:34.564
[SPEAKER_01]: It feels a lot like the 1970s.

23:35.000 --> 23:38.085
[SPEAKER_01]: but it's never been more so since really the 1970s.

23:39.046 --> 23:48.962
[SPEAKER_01]: For roughly 30, 40 years, once the gold boom broke in the 1970s, gold kind of correlated with real interest rates.

23:49.824 --> 23:52.408
[SPEAKER_01]: But that pattern has broken, starting in 2023.

23:52.508 --> 23:55.793
[SPEAKER_01]: And the main driver was,

23:56.060 --> 24:07.452
[SPEAKER_01]: a huge increase in purchases of gold by central banks, shifting away from dollar assets, mainly because the US weaponized sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine war.

24:08.393 --> 24:15.861
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, that was 2023, 2024, but 2025, such a bank's kept buying, but they certainly slowed down their purchases.

24:16.641 --> 24:22.067
[SPEAKER_01]: But demand exploded from investors, and not just US investors,

24:22.756 --> 24:24.678
[SPEAKER_01]: Mainly, Chinese investors.

24:24.758 --> 24:28.982
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, there were some UK investors, there were some Indian investors, there were also some US investors.

24:29.343 --> 24:33.887
[SPEAKER_01]: But like I said, mainly it was what are called retail anti-investors.

24:34.888 --> 24:37.070
[SPEAKER_01]: They really bought into the buying spree.

24:38.111 --> 24:43.717
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's really what catapulted gold much much higher over the past 12 months or so.

24:44.518 --> 24:50.063
[SPEAKER_01]: Now relative to inflation, the price of gold is now five standard deviations above its historic norm.

24:50.650 --> 24:53.655
[SPEAKER_01]: So it has gotten a bit ahead of itself.

24:53.795 --> 25:00.485
[SPEAKER_01]: You have to say, if you're looking based on historical norms, at least that historical norm.

25:01.687 --> 25:03.830
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's hard to see what was slow this down.

25:03.890 --> 25:04.111
[SPEAKER_01]: Why?

25:04.171 --> 25:07.436
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the narrative only continues to build on itself.

25:08.998 --> 25:13.485
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think geopolitical tensions are ratching down or up?

25:14.039 --> 25:15.020
[SPEAKER_01]: because pretty clear, it's up.

25:15.481 --> 25:22.891
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think that the train of government debasement or fiat debasement around the world is going to shift?

25:22.911 --> 25:30.382
[SPEAKER_01]: You think that governments are gonna suddenly become conservative in their spending habits, unlikely.

25:30.722 --> 25:31.623
[SPEAKER_01]: Just look here domestically.

25:31.824 --> 25:35.629
[SPEAKER_01]: Doge was this big campaign promise and it went nowhere.

25:36.771 --> 25:43.540
[SPEAKER_01]: So the dollar debasement strategy is clearly on.

25:44.347 --> 25:44.787
[SPEAKER_01]: Plentyful.

25:45.929 --> 25:52.336
[SPEAKER_01]: Governments need low interest rates, plenty of liquidity to keep their bond markets functioning.

25:54.078 --> 26:06.692
[SPEAKER_01]: So people are looking for places to put that money and even after the surge from investors in buying gold and gold related assets, they still hold relatively little in their portfolios and aggregate.

26:07.128 --> 26:10.972
[SPEAKER_01]: They go on from slightly back to to 3% of retail investor assets.

26:11.512 --> 26:14.876
[SPEAKER_01]: And in the 70s, it went, I think close to 10%.

26:14.896 --> 26:17.719
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's plenty of room to go.

26:19.721 --> 26:26.608
[SPEAKER_01]: Not an inflation-adjusted basis of the past 10 years, gold's up threefold.

26:26.628 --> 26:27.048
[SPEAKER_01]: Threefold.

26:28.009 --> 26:35.717
[SPEAKER_01]: In the 70s, it was up 12fold.

26:37.807 --> 26:39.730
[SPEAKER_01]: And what narrative could shift?

26:42.514 --> 26:43.335
[SPEAKER_01]: I am not seeing it.

26:44.056 --> 26:45.878
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I'll be happy to admit when I do.

26:47.040 --> 26:53.008
[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, the market trends with probably tell us before it actually does.

26:54.050 --> 26:57.815
[SPEAKER_01]: It will peak, it will look relatively weak for some reason.

26:59.197 --> 27:06.868
[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll likely find out later that is maybe, such a thanks pulling back, maybe geopolitics, calming down,

27:07.844 --> 27:10.950
[SPEAKER_01]: or maybe the dollar, research.

27:12.072 --> 27:18.384
[SPEAKER_01]: But ultimately, when you get this near-term volatility in gold, it's healthy.

27:18.885 --> 27:25.096
[SPEAKER_01]: It's constructive, as long as no major long-term trends break lower, which so far you're not seeing any of that.

27:25.477 --> 27:30.747
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, as you probably know by now, we'll receive listener questions from the comment section of our Invest Talk YouTube channel.

27:31.756 --> 27:42.660
[SPEAKER_01]: And Roudi, one two three four five six seven eight says, I know you have owned ticker NX ST in the past, but due to the technical merger, I'm thinking about exiting now.

27:43.754 --> 27:52.568
[SPEAKER_01]: or the day of the merger, the market seems to be bullish at the merger, so I just wanted to see what your thoughts on XT and your perspective on this post merger, okay?

27:52.588 --> 28:04.507
[SPEAKER_01]: And XST, that is a name that we had owned in the past, so we ended up moving on, but it continued to do fairly well, and it's now at a 52-week high, $245 per share.

28:04.527 --> 28:09.475
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know about the technical merger, let's see.

28:09.860 --> 28:12.243
[SPEAKER_01]: It was endorsed by President Trump.

28:12.643 --> 28:13.244
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's see this.

28:14.626 --> 28:17.149
[SPEAKER_01]: Because next are plans to buy.

28:17.189 --> 28:17.650
[SPEAKER_01]: OK.

28:18.611 --> 28:21.094
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know much about this.

28:21.194 --> 28:23.136
[SPEAKER_01]: I frankly wish I looked into it.

28:23.437 --> 28:23.917
[SPEAKER_01]: I have not.

28:24.818 --> 28:30.986
[SPEAKER_01]: But for everyone out there, what next art does is they own a lot of local stations.

28:31.006 --> 28:33.589
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you have cable and you have your

28:34.463 --> 28:58.277
[SPEAKER_01]: ABC station that there is local news, for example, they're the ones that kind of run that and now they do have other networks like true crime and quest and they have some I believe a YouTube channel I think they own the hill if I remember correctly, so their Mark campus about 3.4 billion, they have a decent amount of debt.

28:58.966 --> 29:01.450
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's something to worry about.

29:02.191 --> 29:04.434
[SPEAKER_01]: Free cash flow for Tegna is positive.

29:05.095 --> 29:08.160
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't mind this acquisition that seems fine to me.

29:09.662 --> 29:12.586
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would probably continue to hold it because momentum is strong.

29:13.287 --> 29:14.048
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would keep it.

29:14.829 --> 29:18.074
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go pivot to another voicemail question now.

29:18.995 --> 29:19.797
[SPEAKER_06]: Hello, gentlemen.

29:19.837 --> 29:23.061
[SPEAKER_06]: My name is Adrian from Texas and I'm calling about Senkora.

29:23.182 --> 29:24.784
[SPEAKER_06]: Take your simple COR.

29:25.285 --> 29:26.847
[SPEAKER_06]: I have a small position.

29:27.164 --> 29:35.853
[SPEAKER_06]: currently and was thinking about adding college to it, but one of your advice on if this is a good price or if it's currently over value, thank you very much.

29:36.534 --> 29:42.820
[SPEAKER_01]: Sen Koraj, who was brand name and generic drugs over the counter healthcare products and home healthcare supplies.

29:43.681 --> 29:44.742
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that business.

29:45.063 --> 29:46.044
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that business.

29:46.124 --> 29:54.032
[SPEAKER_01]: Healthcare does have some nice secular tailwinds over the counter products, especially not having to worry about.

29:54.080 --> 30:14.023
[SPEAKER_01]: the pressure from reimbursements, healthcare company reimbursements, pre-cashflow about 3.6 billion on a markup of 71 billion very little debt in its balance sheet, very high return of as the capital around 17% 17% and that's very consistent.

30:14.663 --> 30:16.706
[SPEAKER_01]: And what are they doing with that free cashflow?

30:16.726 --> 30:18.247
[SPEAKER_01]: They're buying back shares.

30:18.287 --> 30:18.768
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that.

30:18.808 --> 30:19.689
[SPEAKER_01]: They pay it dividend.

30:20.069 --> 30:21.471
[SPEAKER_01]: Are they raising their dividend?

30:21.451 --> 30:24.896
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they're consistently raising their dividend earnings.

30:24.956 --> 30:29.844
[SPEAKER_01]: Expect you up 10% this year or 11% next year trades at about a market multiple.

30:31.366 --> 30:31.847
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.

30:32.488 --> 30:32.929
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.

30:33.109 --> 30:33.790
[SPEAKER_01]: St. Chora.

30:34.872 --> 30:38.057
[SPEAKER_01]: Very simple business consistent business.

30:39.218 --> 30:40.160
[SPEAKER_01]: Good profitability.

30:41.322 --> 30:44.727
[SPEAKER_01]: I see no problems with St. Chora.

30:44.747 --> 30:45.067
[SPEAKER_01]: See.

30:45.108 --> 30:48.673
[SPEAKER_01]: Excuse me.

30:50.527 --> 30:52.129
[SPEAKER_01]: those play another listener question.

30:53.610 --> 31:07.684
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I'm just trying to get into more of the foreign or emerging markets and I have come across two ETFs I'm having hard time trying to choose between this for Japan.

31:07.744 --> 31:16.433
[SPEAKER_04]: The first one is FLJP and the second one is JPX and

31:16.598 --> 31:21.203
[SPEAKER_04]: Now, learning from your show, I know that I should go after the ETF that has a lowest price.

31:21.743 --> 31:44.867
[SPEAKER_04]: FLJP has like a 0.09% fee, which is great, and GPXN has a 0.48% fee, but doing all of them in my research, it seems like that GPXN has a screen where they can actually make sure that they don't have any

31:45.134 --> 31:48.237
[SPEAKER_04]: And I guess I'm just wondering if it's like now worth it now.

31:48.457 --> 31:49.838
[SPEAKER_04]: You guys keep on discussing now.

31:50.199 --> 31:52.080
[SPEAKER_04]: Japan is starting to grow.

31:52.581 --> 31:54.703
[SPEAKER_04]: More investors might be interested in it.

31:54.723 --> 31:56.404
[SPEAKER_04]: So looking forward to the podcast.

31:56.424 --> 31:56.965
[SPEAKER_04]: Have a great day.

31:57.205 --> 31:57.405
[SPEAKER_04]: Bye.

31:57.845 --> 31:58.066
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.

31:58.086 --> 32:08.055
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, first off, what I want to say is yes, the expense ratio of matters does matter.

32:08.835 --> 32:15.141
[SPEAKER_01]: But it should not be your first screen.

32:15.526 --> 32:18.392
[SPEAKER_01]: Now maybe top three, top five considerations, sure.

32:19.494 --> 32:23.122
[SPEAKER_01]: But you really want to say, is what allocation do I want to have?

32:23.263 --> 32:26.469
[SPEAKER_01]: What asset exposure do I want to have?

32:26.489 --> 32:31.420
[SPEAKER_01]: Now you're looking to expand to Japan or get exposure to Japan.

32:31.500 --> 32:32.141
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that.

32:33.144 --> 32:33.805
[SPEAKER_01]: But,

32:34.578 --> 32:43.871
[SPEAKER_01]: You are looking at one that's more of an index if the Franklin Footzee Japan ETF and that's why it's expense ratio is nine basis points very low.

32:44.672 --> 32:49.339
[SPEAKER_01]: Versus the I shares Japan X, Nike 400.

32:50.200 --> 32:53.445
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would be interested to see what that filter looks like.

32:53.525 --> 32:57.210
[SPEAKER_01]: If I'm going to take your word for it that there are more

32:57.359 --> 33:00.825
[SPEAKER_01]: a better screen process to get rid of the companies that are worse.

33:00.845 --> 33:05.574
[SPEAKER_01]: Now let me take a look at its profitability C4.

33:06.095 --> 33:14.250
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they're both about C. Yes, see, I'm looking at their return message capital for FLJP.

33:14.270 --> 33:16.795
[SPEAKER_01]: It's about 10.3 for JPXN.

33:16.835 --> 33:18.338
[SPEAKER_01]: It's about 10.85.

33:18.571 --> 33:28.821
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a very minor increase cash return on that is about 68% versus 141% for JLFLJP.

33:29.902 --> 33:47.498
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just not seeing a major difference and I'm not seeing the requisite valuation screens that make this other one look attractive or profit metric screens that make it look attractive.

33:48.068 --> 33:55.137
[SPEAKER_01]: looking at, I'm looking at all these on Morningstar, just some of the metrics here.

33:55.717 --> 33:58.941
[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, it doesn't look better.

33:59.402 --> 34:10.736
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, by most measurements, FLJP has better historical earnings growth, sales growth, cash flow growth, all of that.

34:11.476 --> 34:16.843
[SPEAKER_01]: So whatever screen JPXN is coming up with,

34:17.212 --> 34:26.664
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so I will go with, in this case, the lower fee because I'm not seeing an advantage for JPXN.

34:26.684 --> 34:37.157
[SPEAKER_01]: And if I pull up the, let me go look at a 10 year return, about 9.78 for JPXN versus, this one is five years.

34:37.177 --> 34:40.962
[SPEAKER_01]: So five year on the first one is nine versus 9.07, yeah.

34:41.002 --> 34:43.185
[SPEAKER_01]: So five year turns about the same,

34:43.435 --> 34:48.822
[SPEAKER_01]: I would just stick with FLJP lower cost and the same if not better returns.

34:49.523 --> 34:55.350
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go take a live call from Bill in California looking at CIEN.

34:56.071 --> 34:56.852
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, hi, Justin.

34:57.492 --> 35:02.018
[SPEAKER_03]: I bought some of those few weeks ago and it's up like 30%.

35:03.019 --> 35:05.602
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I just wonder how you see it.

35:06.183 --> 35:07.285
[SPEAKER_03]: They're overall financials.

35:08.446 --> 35:12.531
[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, I was thinking of adding some more, but not today.

35:12.950 --> 35:15.134
[SPEAKER_03]: on a strong pullback.

35:15.214 --> 35:17.058
[SPEAKER_03]: But I don't know.

35:17.879 --> 35:18.941
[SPEAKER_03]: That's why I'm asking you.

35:19.543 --> 35:26.816
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, what I still down day today, this is in the realm of AI infrastructure stocks and it's been doing well because of that.

35:27.358 --> 35:28.680
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, it's gone from.

35:28.897 --> 35:36.008
[SPEAKER_01]: about $60 per share back in April of last year, April low to $341 at the close to day.

35:36.088 --> 35:39.994
[SPEAKER_01]: So massive surge earnings, it's turning at very high multiples.

35:41.136 --> 35:43.019
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this has gotten a little ahead of itself.

35:43.179 --> 35:48.087
[SPEAKER_01]: earnings are supposed to be $6.90 next year on the $341 stock.

35:48.742 --> 35:50.825
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a bit rich for my blood.

35:51.405 --> 36:00.757
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would not be buying more here, especially if these are in video earnings that there's gonna be a bit of a setback and maybe market expectations are reset a little bit.

36:01.678 --> 36:02.799
[SPEAKER_01]: I would not be buying here.

36:02.839 --> 36:05.363
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd want to pull back, let me give you a number here.

36:05.383 --> 36:15.475
[SPEAKER_01]: If this is a localized hop, then I would say a number that I would pick up more shares,

36:15.843 --> 36:18.787
[SPEAKER_01]: would be down around 250 to 45 in that range.

36:19.889 --> 36:20.149
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

36:20.169 --> 36:20.309
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

36:20.370 --> 36:21.291
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

36:21.591 --> 36:22.272
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you so much.

36:22.593 --> 36:23.053
[SPEAKER_01]: No problem.

36:23.133 --> 36:24.275
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

36:24.295 --> 36:28.161
[SPEAKER_01]: That was CNA, C-I-E-N. Now, this is the best talk.

36:28.201 --> 36:28.802
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Justin Klein.

36:28.842 --> 36:30.865
[SPEAKER_01]: We have one goal here each every week.

36:30.885 --> 36:33.809
[SPEAKER_01]: They help you achieve your own version of the financial freedom.

36:33.829 --> 36:36.192
[SPEAKER_01]: And I work continues after this final break.

36:36.212 --> 36:38.796
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's get your questions in right now at 8.99 chart.

36:50.048 --> 36:55.295
[SPEAKER_02]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

36:55.876 --> 37:01.083
[SPEAKER_02]: How they get there and when they get there, that depends on many factors.

37:01.624 --> 37:07.131
[SPEAKER_02]: The more you learn about how the market works, the better your chances for success.

37:07.832 --> 37:18.587
[SPEAKER_02]: So don't forget to call, in Vestark, 888-99 chart.

37:18.787 --> 37:21.250
[SPEAKER_05]: specifically ticker symbol and LR.

37:21.831 --> 37:24.114
[SPEAKER_05]: That's November, Lima, Romeo.

37:24.595 --> 37:30.103
[SPEAKER_05]: This is done well for me over the past year or so to the point that I'm wondering if I should trim.

37:30.964 --> 37:41.098
[SPEAKER_05]: My understanding is that an individual stock should make up about 3% of a portfolio, but I'm wondering if an ETF like this should be higher or not.

37:41.669 --> 37:43.111
[SPEAKER_05]: Could you please give me your thoughts?

37:43.131 --> 37:45.816
[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks in advance really appreciate the show.

37:45.836 --> 37:46.156
[SPEAKER_05]: Bye.

37:46.557 --> 37:51.745
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call and you're right that 3% with fighting up to 5% individual name.

37:51.785 --> 37:52.226
[SPEAKER_01]: That's fine.

37:52.246 --> 37:54.930
[SPEAKER_01]: But the ETFs are in mutual funds.

37:54.950 --> 37:58.656
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not considered individual companies because they are well diversified themselves.

37:58.757 --> 38:06.309
[SPEAKER_01]: This name itself has 25 holding, which is pretty low for an ETF of any kind, but still it's well diversified.

38:06.890 --> 38:08.993
[SPEAKER_01]: And so this can go up to

38:08.973 --> 38:14.089
[SPEAKER_01]: at least 10% of the portfolio, even higher if you want, and it would be considered.

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[SPEAKER_01]: kind of a hybrid industrial energy and utility, ETF because it has about 30% utilities, 13% industrials, 55% in energy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's toppling as Camico.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's the name that we've owned for some time for clients and it's fourth largest holding is BWX Technologies, another name that we have owned for clients for some time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But you are getting exposure to a lot of other names within the space, names like,

38:40.883 --> 38:45.091
[SPEAKER_01]: because that's a problem, which is one of the largest uranium producers in the world.

38:45.632 --> 38:58.015
[SPEAKER_01]: And then a lot of junior miners, that junior uranium miners, like energy fuels, et cetera, some small modular reactor companies like Aquilo, they're getting a pretty diversified.

38:57.995 --> 39:02.239
[SPEAKER_01]: portfolio here and you're not pitching your ride to any one particular name.

39:02.259 --> 39:05.002
[SPEAKER_01]: Now the trends in NLR are pretty good.

39:05.082 --> 39:07.545
[SPEAKER_01]: It still remains in the positive uptrend.

39:08.005 --> 39:08.786
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not overbought.

39:09.207 --> 39:10.328
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just consolidating.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, it's the overall fairly constructive.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I see no reason to dump it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're just looking for broad exposure to the uranium and nuclear energy patch, this is a fine ETF for that.

39:23.581 --> 39:27.225
[SPEAKER_01]: And you can go, like I said, well above the 3% threshold.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

39:30.639 --> 39:33.105
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about insider purchases.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And this was a great study.

39:36.071 --> 39:43.729
[SPEAKER_01]: They looked at 1,400 publicly disclosed insider purchases at S&P 500 companies over the past five years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Something about 327 purchases that spent collective $3.7 billion who each spent more than $100,000 each.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And most of these purchases took place after the share price had declined over the previous month.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now the question is, should you follow these purchases?

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[SPEAKER_01]: and the conclusion was fairly simple, but over the short term, yes, shares typically climb a meeting of 2% a month after these insider purchases, but then the recoveries tended to taper off and there really wasn't a strong indication one way or another.

40:26.137 --> 40:33.527
[SPEAKER_01]: Some went up big, some rolled over and continued to decline.

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[SPEAKER_01]: one month later.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Things like Tim Cook's purchase of Nike.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He was a board.

40:39.505 --> 40:40.026
[SPEAKER_01]: He's on the board.

40:41.187 --> 40:50.376
[SPEAKER_01]: And Nike shares fell after earnings in December, fell about 11% and he bought about $2.9 billion a month later.

40:50.416 --> 41:00.527
[SPEAKER_01]: Nike shares had climbed pretty considerably, but as of today,

41:01.199 --> 41:07.206
[SPEAKER_01]: So the momentum is not exactly, actually, it's actually still up my apologies.

41:07.226 --> 41:08.647
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, thecember lows are around $57.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it climbed up to around $67, and then it's kind of tailed off since.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So overall, that was so far, a good bye, but you could see easily Nike rolling, back over and breaking those December lows.

41:23.184 --> 41:30.312
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's how it was a very interesting study because it really unpacks what a lot of people try to do.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And once again, that can work over a short period of time, but the durability of that bounce is always up to the trajectory of the business, the valuation that's being paid, et cetera.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it's one piece in the puzzle, but it should not be the end of all whether it insiders are purchasing or not.

41:54.239 --> 42:00.147
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I'm Justin Klein and I wanna remind you about parallel investing from cake,

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[SPEAKER_01]: We do what's good for you, and for me, we make a purchase for our clients, we make the same trade for ourselves and the same day, same price, same percentage, no front running, no special treatment, we invest right alongside our clients.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We should have the same risks and potential for success and you can learn more by heading over to investtalk.com.

42:21.380 --> 42:28.789
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42:28.889 --> 42:31.232
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42:32.033 --> 42:35.137
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[SPEAKER_01]: It depends on thinking.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's the best talk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Good night.

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