Page 94: the Private Eye Podcast.

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Page 94.

My name's Andrew Hunter Murray, and I'm here in the Eyes

War Room with Helen Lewis.

Adam McQueen and Ian

Hislop.

, very glad that you're all here today, Ian, I know you've flown

in at some expense from Dubai,

expense to the taxpayer I obviously

we're here to discuss

What

on Earth is going on.

Helen, how did this happen?

A,

a very good question and one to

which we still

do not

after several days have an answer.

we've

got quite a lot of answers, haven't we?

An awful lot of

' reasons.

of different

answers.

various explanations were offered Trump, Seemed to

have been on phone calls with half of the US

Press

Corps over the previous weekend,

and he gave a range

of ideas.

Marco

Rubio, the Secretary of State,

came out

and said something

which might

have been accidentally have been true, and was therefore he was immediately had to

backtrack on, which was

the idea that,

Israel were going to

do strikes on Iran, which they knew Iran would respond to.

And so therefore, America

was preempting

that.

But

that's obviously a very controversial thing to say, that the world's

greatest superpower is being dragged into a war by a, Nation of 8

million people.

So he

then had to pretend that

wasn't what

he'd

said, in one of those kind of great

flat denials that they,

that the

US administration

really specialize in,

When they go, no, we didn't.

And then they play the clip, and they oh yeah, you did.

Yeah.

Okay.

So you know what the answer

is, that nobody,

nobody

really

knows.

they

did last weekend, they were talking about regime change, which

they've

got.

yeah, Ali Kaney is

now dead.

His

son at the time

of recording

is wounded but alive.

Yeah.

According to that,

not

a big change then.

I think, it's a significant change because you now have a supreme

leader who you murdered his father, his wife, and his child.

So he'll have more motivation for reform, And reaching out to

the West, I would've thought.

Another success, mission

accomplished.

Yeah.

But also the, there's been all these things

about how they want,

Iranian protestors to rise up and capitalize

on,

on the

protest.

The trouble is that comes after several weeks of thousands upon

thousands of them being slaughtered

or

imprisoned by the regime.

The other thing

that they've done is, obviously the US

defunded, all of

its, overseas broadcast

operations, including I believe, one in Farsi.

because

that was woke madness that just allowed

people just to sit on very big ses and

and the new supreme leader is called moba, which is the far C four chosen.

So when they were

having

the

meeting,

I want,

I

wonder

if we're

gonna choose.

But also in, in his cv, which obviously I've been reading recently to try

and catch up, it said he had a very influential teacher, that, formed a

lot of his views called his father.

Okay.

the signs have been there for a while, that the immediate replacement,

and as you say, we dunno how long this will last, is not going to be

a leader of the, opposition party.

No.

So it's not, we're not dealing with someone who we can trust.

'cause he's been through the British public school system and been deeply

inculcated in our ways and values.

no.

No,

It's continuity

IOL is

what

I'm, yeah.

hasn't even been to Sandhurst.

But does

that bother Trump?

Because he did regime change in, Venezuela, didn't he?

Which consisted of taking out one man and his wife and then just

letting the regime carry on now as normal, but, making sure that some

of the oil reserves came the US' way

instead.

Yeah.

Although I'm really not sure

how even that's

working

out given the reluctance of the US oil companies to invest in a

mad

Trump

scheme, given that they think even if

you think he's

gonna stay around beyond his term,

he is still

heading into his eighties.

is it just too

cynical

to say that Trump just fancied

doing it and there was no one around

him to stop him

and

and the ah ma is in place.

What you gonna, what you gonna do?

Send him

home?

It would be embarrassing at that point

to send them home.

And I also think that, Israel has been very clear about the fact that it feels

that it wants to just use the opportunity of its, current aggressive posture

to take out as many

regional enemies as possible.

they, but, Israeli opposition to Iran's nuclear

program

is long

running.

they've done a kind of incredible.

stuff.

At one point

they set up a couple of years ago, a,

a remote controlled sniper rifle

to

take

out on the top of a

mountain

to take out an Iranian nuclear scientist.

there was a, do you remember that terrible mad time when Benjamin Netanyahu

posed with that wall of rack of DVDs

where

they'd got all

of the, the Iranian nuclear secrets.

This has been a, a longstanding preoccupation of

Israel.

Previous

US presidents have been more of the

calm down lad's view.

Donald

Trump is not,

but this is also the nuclear capability, which we were told by one.

Donald Trump had been totally obliterated last

year.

Yeah.

Don't

we?

When they did

the

strikes last year, he said it was fake news to say that they were only,

compromised and not totally obliterated.

So they got going on that again quickly, didn't

they?

they?

Given that

they keep a Right.

assassinating Iranian

nuclear

scientists,

it's a real testament to their grit that they've got it

back up

again within six months.

Yeah.

And it

is confusing for, readers to say, oh, how's the war on Iran going, oh,

there's a lot happening in Lebanon.

Most of the casualties, 300 and a couple of days.

seem to be by Israel on a country that isn't the named aggressor.

think

Benjamin Netanyahu has calculated,

he will never have an American

president who is so keen to do all the stuff

that he's always wanted to do for, a decade or more now.

And

so

there's, this is what I mean.

This is a fundamentally a war about the fact that there

is nothing to

restrain Donald

Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

why is there

nothing?

there's

no international law for a start.

So we have, president Macron was delicately tiptoed up to the edge of

saying it's not really in accordance with

international law.

Actually,

there's

no, there

was no vote

in Congress,

before

this, no congressional

authorization for this, no one else in the alliance, the NATO alliance is willing

to speak up to, Donald Trump, the most

we're getting is Ki saying, you can't use our bases.

Oh, no, actually

you can

now.

And China and

Russia, which are allied with Iran, haven't really stepped

in any,

I'm sure they're supplying it with

intelligence

or arms,

but they haven't stepped up in any massive

way to

make a big deal or outta this.

So, who, what is the restraint here on,

on Trump and Netanyahu,

and then some commentators say, that's good.

There is no restraint.

Indeed.

The one thing that might be the restraint as ever, is the US economy.

so as we're talking now, there's overnight been a huge oil

price spike,

and that is

the one thing that

people in

the White House who aren't

called Donald Trump are very worried about.

But this has been, but

this has been going on for a long time.

So the midterms are in November.

Traditionally, you'd expect a President's party to lose ground

in the midterms, which will

be the

start of Trump's gentle, fading outta

public life.

If

this were to follow

classic,

US presidential

second terms.

So the, his team are terribly worried that they can't get him

to talk about affordability.

he mentions it

in

passing, but

then gets super bored

very quickly.

And is not doing the

kind of things you would

do if

you're worried about it,

like rolling back

tariffs, like not

spending billions

of dollars of ordinance

in, the

Middle East with no clear objective.

After nine 11, there was a strong

impulse

that something must be done.

I don't get the sense that's, the same here.

No, the polling on it

is really, negative

and I'm not surprised

about that because there was absolutely no preparation for it.

So a couple of days before the strike,

Trump did the

State

of the Union address, which is incredibly long

and rambling,

and he did, I think, three paragraphs on

Iran.

Now, classically, you might want to say

we

have

this terrible enemy and, To get back to 2003.

Oh, we are really worried it'll unleash a chemical weapon on us.

Or we are really worried it's got weapons of mass destruction, or here's the threat

that it poses to the world order, or

we can't allow this to go on because of this incredible

threat.

No, he just

said we can't let them have a nuclear weapon.

And

that was

really

as far as it went.

So the American public opinion hasn't been prepared

it was extraordinary.

I was going back for reasons that become apparent a bit later in the podcast to

a lot of coverage from 2003 and quite how long the buildup to that one was.

it was all about are they gonna get a un second resolution and are the weapons

inspectors gonna be allowed to buy?

it's 18 months before they actually moved and, went in.

whereas this one just does seem to have done on a whim, possibly.

do you think he knew it was gonna happen or did Nie Min Netina who

just phone him up and say it's

tomorrow?

they had been moving, as Andy said, they'd been moving all of the carrier

groups into the, into the Mediterranean,

so that over a period of

weeks.

the day before the

embassies were saying all the non-essential staff.

please

leave, which didn't

seem to trickle through to the influencers at

that point.

I would be like, oh, really?

Okay,

fine.

I See

you.

they're essential

though.

That's

the thing.

Yeah.

Deeply essential

posting activities that must be done.

and in a way they

hadn't really stopped since last June when they bombed the nuclear facilities.

That was a, cease

fire

in the sense of, and we'll come back anytime we like.

Thank you.

the

international inspectors did say that they had found some, material.

so there was a,

small chance to say actually, it's not totally random, but that was just buried.

Yeah.

I really like people have been doing that meme of at least in

2003 you took the time to lie to

us

and You can't even be bothered to

do that.

I

think Trump's having a very

bad

time at the moment.

He's had this big rash on his neck.

He's been wearing a, baseball cap, which for a man who's very.

Vain is an interesting one.

So the fake situation room that he's made in Mar-a-Lago.

He was sitting there with his baseball cap on, and then he went

to a dignified transfer, which is when they receive home the bodies of

American servicemen,

traditionally, like the most solemn occasion.

And he was wearing a baseball cap for it,

but it's a white cap.

I'm pretty convinced that he's thought this shows, I'm one of the good guys.

Um,

it's back to fairly

basic

John Wayne territory, Are

I'm afraid.

We are

Jerry Cooper.

the Iranian guys, all their hats are black Andy,

right?

He is

wearing a white

hat.

I don't need,

I don't need any further

convincing,

that's the level of analysis you're gonna get

from

me.

Oh.

Then he might put a, maybe he puts the black hat on when he orders a strike.

or,

maybe it's a bit like the new Pope.

Maybe he's sending

out kind

of signals

through the colors of a hat.

but

you think it's, there's something wrong with

hat?

I think,

it's

about the fact that they had, that he's

got some, he's had all these, he's had this bruise on his hand that

looks like a son but had an IV in it.

He's

had congested ankles.

He's spoken a bit about the fact that might be chronic venous insufficiency.

I think he's struggling through a few

health

problems,

which is probably not surprising for amount

his age.

For a man of his age and

prodigious Diet Coke and random food consumption.

he's not a,

and he

takes four aspirin a day.

there's

this

kind

of,

' 'cause he

wants lovely, thin blood.

He doesn't want nasty, thick blood

going

The classicist listening.

I don't think he's got Venus Insufficiency.

I think it's

Mars.

Oh,

so the war is not legal.

it's not popular.

It's hugely

screwing

up the global economy.

there

are hundreds and hundreds of civilian

casualties happening.

we haven't yet completely.

answered

the

question of,

who launched the strike on the primary school, which killed about 170,

girls.

Yeah.

But

it

does look like

it was

an American

strike.

it

could very well be.

The Americans haven't

denied

it.

They've just said,

Pete Hesser said

that Trump's

denied it.

yeah, Trump

denies everything.

yeah.

But, at the Pentagon press briefing the BBC one of the few legacy

outlets that were still allowed in there because of Pete Hegseth,

the Secretary of Wars turnover

of

kind of

the

press court influences.

They said, what's happening with that?

And he said, there's an investigation going on.

They said, that's what you said several days

ago.

Could you

hurry

this along?

And no,

they didn't get any further

right

with

it.

there was a piece in the eye last week suggesting that the, overuse of AI

with

targeting, might explain some of these errors rather than it being a,

merely a, malicious desire to blow up

school

children, which I don't think is what the Americans are doing.

It is just a carelessness.

And an an Over-reliance, on technology, which does make mistakes,

it is hard to see how the war is gonna get any more popular as time goes by.

If

there

are

more casualties, as,

the certainly will be Iranian.

And whether there are any more American

ones

we're used to

the idea that Trump makes quick

Lightning raids,

Venezuela, the, bombing of the nuclear sites that last June,

and then declares victory.

It seems as though Iran hasn't received a copy of that script on this occasion.

that's

the real fear when you talk

to people who, cover that

region.

Is that it are, is there a sense among the Iranian leadership

that

they don't have anything to lose by

just continuing

there certainly isn't.

when one of the many justifications has been given for it is that they

want re regime change, isn't there?

there's not really much coming back from that, even if it's

amongst a smorgasbord of other

justifications.

Yeah.

They want

out.

Yeah.

But I think you are right about the, popularity aspect of it.

I suspect that will be what eventually prompts Trump to

declare that he's definitely won.

It's

all

over,

everything's amazing,

and then move on

to something else.

But it's,

it is really

peculiar

because I sat there at a Trump rally and listened to him saying, I'm

the only US president in 80 years

who hasn't started any wars.

I've ended some such a huge part of his appeal.

He was in the 2016

debates very when he had a go Jeb Bush, for

those of you who are,

have long memories

about

Iraq saying, you've got us

into

this stupid war that cost American

lives and American billions.

What

was the point of that?

There

is a previous version of Trump

that

there, was

some blinking

away some neurons

saying

that this

is a

battle.

It was an

absolutely explicit part of his appeal to the American people wasn't, it was

no more forever wars in the Middle East.

And that's what we were talking about checks and balances on him.

How much of a check and balance on him is the MAGA base and those voters.

I, I suppose he, if he's not standing for another election, then personally he's

got nothing to lose from annoying those

people.

But,

he has stuffed JD Vance quite

heavily with this.

So the vice president is,

known to be America first and isolation is very much of

that tendency.

he served

in in Iraq and it's

really made

quite

hard for fans to run as the vice presidential incumbent

in 2028,

having been so overwhelmingly humiliated

on his,

one of his signature

policy

positions.

There

we

have it, the thinnest

silver

lining

imaginable

on an otherwise

enormous

cloud.

I was

about to say

he's really nuked JD

Vance's prospects,

and I

thought

that's

not the

happiest.

he'll be back in nine months, 20, Yeah.

Just to pick up on Adam's point is only seven servicemen have died to

date, only seven American servicemen.

So obviously large numbers of other people have died.

But

aren't

unpopular wars in America, wars in which American servicemen die?

so far and I'm not being callous And you couldn't be more callous than Trump.

Yeah.

people die.

It happens in wars.

There we go.

I thought quite a jaw dropping speech, but so

far

it's

not

losses that will make the war

unpopular.

The thing that is really toxic for him is the sense of the MAGA

base going, why don't you care about the same things that we care

about?

and, and it is now a very

popular conspiracy theory that he did this as he does everything to

get away from the Epstein files.

and that is

a, it's a

fringe belief, but it's still

quite

a lively one

among some sections of the base.

And then for swing

voters, there were people who voted for Trump because inflation

was really high and

they were having difficulty buying stuff, and they didn't

mind all the other mad stuff that he was doing.

They just didn't like what Biden was doing.

those people are

not diehard

committed

maga headss.

They're people who

want a

functional US economy.

And

at

the moment, he seems to be interested in everything

but their gas prices,

for

example.

And again, he's telling them, he's saying this is a small price to

pay, for not having a nuclear Iran.

This.

is in One of his latest speeches.

And You're thinking what, so you're admitting today that

this war is going to cost the US

taxpayer

money.

Yeah.

If

you are, a recently minted crypto billionaire, probably

lots of things look like a small price

pay,

don't they?

Yes.

In terms of the MAGA base, what are their feelings about Israel?

'cause traditionally the Republican party thing has been very much Israel, right

or wrong way behind them all the way.

There's a sort of feeling with this one that if

Israel took America into this with them.

It's a sort of continuation of with

the attacks on, Hezbollah in Beirut as well.

It feels like a continuation of one of the eight walls that he's, he said he's

already finished as well, doesn't it?

I'm

really

interested in this

because I think

it's undercover.

So on the American right, there has been a lot of discourse since October the

seventh about the fact that the left is, has been overtaken by basically

hammer supporting cafe wearing students,

and

that this is a driving

force of antisemitism in the us.

Actually,

there's

a mirror image of that happening on the right.

So one of the big stars among Gen Z staffers in Washington, they will

admit to watching Nick Fuentes, who is self-described Christian

nationalist, a Holocaust denier, openly

antisemitic a and somebody who,

for that reason is very critical of the US Military Alliance.

With

Israel

and saying that he would now vote Democrat.

he's a

troll, he's an internet troll, but he does represent something which is that there is

a big

part of the institutional class, the younger institutional class

that doesn't see the US Israel Alliance as being something that

is completely unquestionable

and sacrosanct.

And

that has huge implications in American politics,

for example, because apac, which is the pro-Israeli funding organization,

is really influential in lots of, congressional races, lots of

political races, it funds candidates.

and it has a very, specific set of demands about what it think, what thinks

that, those candidates should say if it's prepared

to back them.

And you will already beginning to

see candidates backing away slightly

on

both

turning money

down.

so Gavin Newsom is a really interesting example.

He's

obviously got his eyes on 2028 as a

democratic contender.

He's currently governor of California.

He

said last week that,

and he phrased it as someone else saying it, but

he said other people have described Israel as

an apartheid state.

Now in

American politics, this used to be the kind of

thing that had people

reaching

for the,

the gin and the clutching their pearls that this was a

completely unthinkable unsayable

thing to

say,

but it's not anymore.

And then the mirror image of that is on the right.

You will have people like very influential

commentators like Tucker Carlson,

who are incredibly

critical of Israel and actually have built up quite

a

fan

base in places like

Qatar and Saudi Arabia, because of their willingness to say that.

already

we knew that popular opinion in America had moved away from Israel and now that

is finding its outlet in some of the elite commentators and some of the kind

of niche and underground commentators.

So I think you're right.

I think that this

sequence of events

will drive those people even further into the

arms of

why does Israel dictate the US foreign policy?

That's why Marco Rubio came

out

kinda

cleaned

up

his,

statements

because

that is a toxic thing

to have

said to not to quite

a number of people in American

political

life.

And again, it seems a bit of a u-turn from, back in, God,

it's only January, isn't it?

When they, went into Venezuela, but then the justification of that was, this is

all about the Don Row doctrine, which is saying that the Western hemisphere

is, part of the Americas are what we're gonna be focusing on now, which

is make the Americas great again, But then suddenly, yeah, no straight

screeching, reverse ferret into, more war in the Middle East does seem

quite a,

turnaround.

It makes no sense.

And I think people have tried to drive themselves mad in the

last week trying to

make

this make

no

sense.

And I think if you

just go, just imagine

he's Cula and he's made his horse a senator.

Hang on.

Was that him?

or Was

that

Tiberius?

No, it was and

was ULA Console,

yeah.

See, the one thing we can't get wrong on this

podcast is classics,

isn't it?

it?

I knew

it's like me saying

a Venus insufficiency.

I should have said, he does need more love, but he doesn't need more war.

but I didn't

make it

clear.

I'm gonna,

I'm gonna do one deliberate error about either Roman

history or the

Second World War in every podcast.

Just

to keep

everyone on

their

toes.

Thank you.

you.

we

should come now to the most important question that the war on Iran

has raised,

which is why oh, Y is K Starman not invading

immediately?

I think that's, that, that's the official British media

stance, isn't it?

Or most

of us.

So

So

would you, like to

guess what percentage

of people in Britain, according to a recent Ugo poll, describe

themselves as being pro-Trump?

What percentage of Britain's are

pro-Trump?

Oh, it'll be triple figures.

but

which I mean three, right?

3%.

Yeah.

where was this poll conducted Inside

the

Telegraph

office.

Well,

Rather

different

It comes how many?

13.

1

3. Wow,

Wow.

for some.

I

thought

it was.

Yes.

I thought it would

be.

Below

10 and 67%

against.

And then

a

lot of people

going as ever

in

a poll going, who?

and people.

really associate reform.

Voters are more pro-Trump than everyone else.

Conservative Labour, green, whatever, FSMP, whatever it might be.

And they also, people think

of

them

as

being

war

pro-Trump.

it's not entirely surprising given that their leader rushed

over to Marra Largo last week.

No, no signal.

The war had broken out to try and have dinner with Trump, didn't he?

And got

stood

up.

Poor old Nigel.

He'd taken

his GB news film

crew with him and everything.

And

yeah,

if he'd just

booked

it

for

a

wedding,

he'd

have

had a

handshake.

He'd

have been allowed

to

peek

behind the curtain he's got no political

strategy

at

all.

But

this has been a really big thing in the last week.

is lots

of the

traditional British press, by which I mean mostly print media, telegraph

time, so on, say running articles.

I'm just gonna quote a few headlines here.

Stama has made Britain irrelevant.

Stama must not equivocate on

Iran.

What's the point of having aircraft carriers if we aren't prepared

to use

them

to

do

what is not made clear?

But there is this drumbeat saying, we must absolutely right or wrong support

America in this

and saying, Stan can't sit on

the fence.

What actually emerges is that lots of people want Stan

to sit on the fence on this

and

think

that's broadly the correct position.

And lots

of people are opposed.

49% were opposed to the attack on Iran as opposed to 28 in favor.

it's,

reasonably clear public opinion in the uk, but that has not

made it through to the papers.

the Daily Mail in particular, did you see that headline last week?

Starer Takes The Great Outta

Britain and I just thought, this is very old for a newspaper that presumably

still thinks of itself as patriotic to be piling in with another international

leader who's been insulting our prime minister and taking his side on it, it

just seemed, a very bizarre position to be, and desperate and deluded was their

front page headline about Stama when, as you say, I think he's pretty much taking

a position that most of the British public or majority of them would think was quite

a

sensible

one.

And you said to me the Daily Mail was marvelous in

invoking

the spirit of the other great wartime leader, Sironi Blair,

who the male used to not think of

as

particularly marvelous.

That was the most extraordinary thing.

You had the male on Sunday headline saying, Blair, says we should have

gone in at the first, at the first moment you said, you say, guy,

guys,

do you remember?

You don't like him.

You really, don't like him.

And you've been saying for, decades.

What a disaster.

believing America and going into Iraq was, it's extraordinary.

even more recently than that, do you remember when Obama, was supposedly

interfered in the Brexit vote and said we'd be at the back of the queue?

Do you remember all of the op-eds, from people, saying, oh, how dare

this American interfere in order to, they managed to find, their backbones

there and be a bit patriotic about it.

But no, we seem to have gone over entirely into, let's just be the 51st state now,

according to

certain

newspapers.

But

you, Adam, you have a very convincing

theory

as

to

why,

The key thing about what's happening with a lot of, particularly our right-wing

press at the moment, is that internet advertising is a lot more lucrative

in America than it is in Britain.

Which is why the strategy of most of our British newspapers over the last five

years or so has been to set up hack posts in a couple of 'em were ahead of it.

The mail online was ahead of it.

The Guardian was long ahead of it setting up operations in America.

But all of the others have kinda been piling resources into,

New York offices and America facing websites ever since then.

And I think that's because these days actual, print papers are largely a sort of

afterthought and it's all digital first.

That whole mindset I think of facing an American audience is starting to filter

back entirely into kind of the editorial line that they're taking even on the

kind of British

facing

stuff.

Yeah.

So we've gone very, we've gone very mago basically.

we are, British newspapers are now semi

American

products.

it's, As

soon as

you

pointed out, it's quite hard not to

notice

it anymore.

It's

fascinating.

The

telegraph itself is absolutely seeing itself as a, we did a story in, in,

street of shame couple weeks ago.

The Telegraph have earned themselves a place in the White House press

room, which they never had before.

If it was a little, seat at the back, which they have to share

with one of the online analysts.

But they are in there and they were one of us.

the Telegraph were amongst many, people last week who appeared to be

able just to phone Donald Trump up on his personal mobile and just have

a chat to him and say, would you wanna slag off our Prime Minister?

yes, I'd be very clever Wouldn.

You print

that?

Yes,

of course

I

will.

Oh, it's even

worse than that When the son phoned him up.

They seemed

to

have

fed

him

the

line

So they said something like, do you think he's just doing this because he's

worried about losing the Muslim vote?

Basically Is he afraid of offending Muslims and Trump

went, yes, I do think that's probably is why it is.

And then

sure

enough,

that

was

the

splash.

You can't ask leading questions

in a British courtroom, can you?

But you can if you're speaking

to the

leader

of

the free world.

I did think, I thought that was a bit of a rum thing and I

thought,

no, it you shouldn't be

be to

trick

the

US

president

just, before we say that we should, can I just put in a word

for the journalist concern too, is it's very objective.

it was, it was Harry Cole and it was part of his podcast, which

is titled Harry Cole Saves the

West.

So

absolutely

he's

going

into this

objective.

Andy's Furious.

This Podcast

isn't

called

Saves the West.

You

You can try

and Save The West.

Isn't that what

Liz

Trust's

book

was

called?

Yeah.

10

years To save,

the

West.

She didn't specify who

would

be doing it,

but I dunno if you remember, Liz Trust didn't actually manage to do it.

So

No, I was thinking how embarrassing to have taken the title

of

your product from

these

times.

But that's

a very good example of the phenomenon you're talking about, Which

is that Harry was political editor

of the Sum for a really long time

and he's

now

got

an American facing online show.

So

his audience is,

the MAGA

base.

Whereas even people on the British, Rite And just not in that

reflexively pro-American place

that,

the

MAGA

people

are.

Yeah.

the Telegraph certainly used to be the paper of the kind of buffed and tufts

and the retired colonels and things who are mostly popping up now to say,

you're not

terribly

wise, we're going into another war in the middle of this.

we haven't

really

got

the resources

for this.

but just being ignored in this kind

of

no,

And

the BS and a lot of sympathy for them pointing out that, the running

down of the British arms forces can't entirely be laid at the feet of Kma.

Given we've had 14 years

of

the Conservative party not funding them.

the fact that there isn't a Navy, and that the Army is as the eyes repeatedly point

out, has had it's outsourcing, volunteer,

and

recruiting divisions, given to someone else, means that it's almost

entirely

ineffective.

But there

does seem to be this willful thing of not learning from history anymore.

I wonder if this is part of the, the, con

the

war on woke.

'cause we've been told for years and years by, a lot of these right wing

papers that, this, terrible thing that people want to, focus on slavery

and the bad things that Empire didn't naturally empire was marvelous.

But it now seems to have will been extended to, about 2003, doesn't it?

But we've decided to just rewrite that one as, a complete, in fact,

would you like to play a game of 2003

or

2026?

Yes.

Iraq

or

Iran.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

I'm

gonna

read

you some

quote,

the Subedit Nightmare

You have to guess

2006 or

2003.

This is

brilliant.

It's

It's Iraqi,

ui.

that's the one.

British

spies are part of a deep cover operation to track down chemical weapons, which

could be used in attacks on neighboring countries such as Israel and Dubai.

The mail on Sunday can

reveal

the intelligence officers are working with American counterparts inside the

country to locate sites which have been identified as potential hiding places

for

nerve

agents.

2026.

Yeah.

2026.

It was last Sunday.

Yep.

Glen

in, in

the

mail

on

Sunday.

I've, I

love that.

It sounded

so

do though the

chemical

agents,

intelligent sources, talking about

chemical

weapons

and

nerve

agents.

I'm

wearing skinny jeans.

I'm listening

to

the

Strokes,

it's

all coming

back.

blitzes

in

the news again.

Yes.

Chemical

alley.

He's

back.

Yep.

Another one.

This is, this is an editorial.

Britain remains a bridge between America and Europe, even though

it spans have been stretched to breaking point by the current crisis.

It should be a matter of pride that we who share so much in terms of democratic

ideals with the great English speaking power across the Atlantic should

have

stood

shoulder

to shoulder with

it.

Genuinely cannot

tell.

2026

I'll

say

nope.

2003. As the daily telegraph on why we need to be right in their

shoulder to shoulder with George W.

Bush, Britain is left muttering about due process, nitpicking over

niceties, proclaiming its loyalty to a legal, order that others have

abandoned far from making us look noble.

It makes us look

fatuous, shifty

and

unreliable.

2003.

2026.

Ah,

Dan Hanan,

The man who

is reliably wrong about everything in the Sunday Telegraph last weekend.

One more.

An abject lesson in making a laughing stock of Britain.

The prime minister's slow and inept response, placed Brit Britons in

harm's way other Nations acted rapidly to evacuate their people.

When it did act, its charter plane broke down and spent 10 hours on the runway.

A good thing the foreign office wasn't in charge on D-Day, the Prime Minister

was utterly misguided from the start.

It raises the question, who on earth

is

advising him?

That's gotta

be 2026.

Surely the

Dubai mention Surely

No,

that one's

2011

after.

And it's The Daily

Mail

talking

about

Libya,

Oh.

Libya,

want just

one bonus question.

who said last week when commenting on Donald Trump's justification, one of

his justifications to the war, Trump said if we didn't hit within two weeks,

they would've had a nuclear weapon.

Who said of that he lies so often

that

he

doesn't

know

the

difference

anymore.

Is,

it,

Is

it,

Alistair

Campbell?

It is Chemical Alley Campbell.

It's indeed, yes.

The man of 45 minute WMDs dodgy dossier fame.

So yeah.

Wow.

We are not learning

from

history.

We

can't

be

bothered

anymore.

can I bring us on to another element of the British coverage because

so much of the war has been, about

energy, what it's gonna do to oil and gas prices.

They've

risen enormously, over the last week, in particular oil, but

gas is creeping up as well.

So a large element

of this discussion has been,

what Britain should do in response to this.

Can

anyone

guess

the prescription

that's gone out far

wide about

how we

this?

Is

it heat

pumps?

It's

not,

No.

Oh, Is

it

just

drive

less?

it's

drill,

baby drill.

Oh,

wow.

The

reaction has been,

let's

drill the North Sea, which no one has thought to do

over

the last 50 years.

one example, Claire Catino, the conservative shadow energy

secretary, has been out there saying,

you know,

north Sea.

Ed Miller Band is a dangerous fantasist.

We need to repeal the climate Change act and

get

cracking.

to

be fair, she was saying that

before

the

war

with

Round as

well,

Oh yeah.

And she was wrong then.

So

don't you

worry

she's wrong then.

She's wrong now.

She's remained consistent, which I do respect her for.

So

I've been

speaking

to

to

a few people about basically the reality of this.

So would it

interest you to have

a,

little bit of context about this

whole

discussion?

'cause it'll happen

a lot

over the

next

few

months.

Your,

heat

pump time

has

hasn't It

really?

It

certainly

has the Soler panels.

How's your electric charging and

your cross pavement charging

solution

working out

for you?

Tip top,

yeah.

The price

of the sunshine hitting my roof has not rocketed, tenfold, which is

nice.

So

be smuggler have sunshine

No, I know.

time.

the

way it's been discussed in particular in

the papers even today is

that we've got two days of gas supplies

left in this

country.

This

a

disaster it's

absolutely not.

This is how

the industry works under normal circumstances.

Most of

our

gas

does not come from the Middle East,

It's about

10%

at most.

Most of it comes from Norway, it comes from the North Sea, some comes from

America.

But we, are not

reliant

for

the actual supply

of it

on the Middle East.

The

problem is, of course, it's globally traded.

It, The price will

rocket basically

because of these shortages.

if this goes on for several months, there will be

a concern about how we get

that last eight

10%

replaced.

Because

Britain's really reliant

on gas.

We use it for heating a lot of our homes

in

a way that,

most

other countries don't.

that is potentially

a problem there.

But that's,

if this last

several months, the

actual supply of it in terms of

how

the North Sea might change

the prices,

it's

almost

completely irrelevant.

That's the thing.

So

people say, anyone who says to you,

we

should

drill

the North

Sea,

it,

equivalent to.

your Heroin dealer has raised prices a great deal.

Should you

growing your

own poppies?

The

answer is to get off

heroin

rather than

So is that because

it would now cost a huge amount to extract.

What's

still there.

It's,

gone

or

isn't there

it is a really what they

call a

mature basin.

Claire continue has been saying, oh, Norway has been finding

a lot.

The, amounts they've been finding are up practically

in the

Arctic Circle.

What

is left on the UK

Shelf?

It, is pretty

well done.

It does.

And do

we not

own the

Arctic

Circle?

Afraid not.

No.

not

anymore.

it?

Seriously.

honest.

if I was writing

a,

leader in a popular paper now

I

would say in another

blow to Stama, we failed to

invade

the

Arctic

quick.

Donald Trump's looking

in another direction.

Let's take

Greenland.

Yeah.

so

the

thing is, Adam, you've been talking about short memories.

We have been

through something very, similar

four

years ago,

Russia invades Ukraine.

Yep.

Prices spiked enormously.

Attempts were made then

to increase the supply of

gas and bring it down.

Prices still went up 15 fold.

So

you, cannot north see your way outta this.

so

what

can we

do?

the government has a lot of

opportunities

to say

this

is a

crisis.

you look at countries like Spain, which

have hugely increased their renewable

capacity.

They haven't been affected by quite the same, spike in

prices.

So the government can make a lot of sort of quick decisions to signal,

whether that's we

need to electrify our home heating, we need to electrify our transport.

These are things

we can

do with domestic supply.

countries

mostly have this thing of, have you heard

of the

energy trimmer?

No.

that's such

a

great

phrase, we're

about to

I'm afraid

you

are good.

There are three things you've got to choose between when you're getting

your energy supply.

You want it to be cheap.

you want it to be secure

and ideally you'd

like

it to

be

low

carbon.

But

loads and loads of countries

have said, look, we've got cheap and pretty secure, fossil, so we're not

so

fussed

about it

being low carbon.

Yeah.

In

a

world

in

which

These

things

are no longer

cheap or

secure,

and

where China is waiting saying, would you like

some batteries

and Soler panels?

That really changes the discussion.

And what's gonna happen, I think, globally is that lots of countries

will scramble for extra supplies

and

many will get them.

Countries which have a bit less money

to, spend

won't.

This is places

like Pakistan,

which don't have abundant natural resources.

And when Russia invaded

Ukraine and,

gas

prices spiked

enormously.

Pakistan was absolutely left

in the lurch.

What that

led to two years later is Pakistan importing an enormous

number of Soler panels.

And in fact this year

they've canceled lots

of gas shipments.

'cause they said, we just can't take on that much gas.

We don't need it anymore because China

was there waiting

to

provide supply.

So

this

was all very different in the oil price shock,

nearly 50

years ago.

It's, there are now alternatives

which,

superpower

is

hoping to

supply.

That's

so interesting to me because again, I think there's a difference

between some of the legacy media

treatment of it, which

is that net zero is a ridiculous thing and super silly and whatever, and the

reform belief, it should still be rolled

back versus

the view of lots of other people around the world that this is

coming to an end like

this.

The era of fossil fuels

is coming to an end

and

not least among Saudi Arabia,

the producer

of

an enormous amount of them, right, where

you'll hear the Crown

Prince talk about how he's got

to

find something

else for the country to do

in

a

post fossils fuel future.

Another example, Cuba,

which might be next on the invasion

list.

It's

certainly been

blockaded for, America's

just turned

off the oil taps,

Cuba's now

importing a lot

of Chinese Soler panels in an attempt.

they're really struggling,

planes are struggling

to refuel in Cuba.

They want to keep the lights on.

The one

downside is that lots of, big renewable projects take a lot

of upfront investment and if

inflation is

very high, then

an interest rate is very

high.

It's

harder

to

fund them.

But

in the long run, oil suppliers don't want

their stuff to

be inaccessible

to lots of people.

They'd like the price kept

at

a

reasonable

level where

they make a lot of money

and,

people

can afford to actually buy it and they're

not desperately

casting around

for

alternatives.

And I think old Sparky

will

be returning

to this theme

in,

the

magazine.

Ian, I presume

that when this issue went

to press, you were thinking it

would have

something about the Gordon

and

Denton

by-election

on the

front.

I

did.

I had a

particularly fine joke about, the plumber winning a by election, and I could, put

the joke, the system is broken, on Then

I thought,

that,

that,

would do

for

the front

by

Monday.

Yeah.

it didn't feel like it was the biggest story in the world, which is

a great shame, because it was really interesting, not I think, in ways

that a lot of the press covered it.

this

is

extraordinary.

Nothing

like

this

has

ever

happened before,

which again, it has quite frequently, that is what happens in by elections.

And George Galloway must have been sitting

there

thinking.

what do

you

mean?

I've, done exactly this at least twice.

How dare anyone say this is a new tactic by the Greens?

I've

set up

new parties,

I've

gone for

this vote, I've won.

So

there was a sort of,

feeling that

the

story had been somewhat missed but we didn't really have

time to go into it enough.

So

I

think

we

could

have

a

quick

look

now.

Yeah.

And, this is really the short memory episode, isn't

it?

We got a lot

of short memories all over

the place.

So black

back to 2003, 2022,

and

now

does

George

Galloway week

before

last.

week.

Before

last,

yeah.

Yeah.

So I

suppose the

question it

brings is,

Star

by

screwed?

this

is a seat with a

re pretty

big Labour majority

that's just

been completely overturned

by the Greens

with a very charismatic local candidate who,

was a very

winning plumber who kept doing a plastering course throughout the campaign.

Because,

you

know what, if she didn't

win the election, it

just, that

she was clearly very popular and liked

and the message was

quite

convincing

at, and she was up against Matt Goodwin, who

clearly

wasn't

very

popular Yes, very

well we

should say for non-New junkies

who

Matt

Goodwin is

as well.

he's

a

man

with an unfortunate surname when he

then goes and loses elections

who takes

it

very

badly.

He

was

both a reform

candidate and I think probably at the time of, recording

the UK's most popular political

substack.

But

that's

only

because Hannah Spencer MP

doesn't

have

a

substack I presume.

No.

she, was, I mean she was brilliant

on social media and I think that,

the, Green Party

generally under Zach Polanski has

incredibly opted

its game.

and I think you're

right,

Ian.

The reason that I

think people panicked and freaked out it, particularly

on the right, was they thought if there are

angry

voters

who are rebelling against

the system and the establishment IE Labour,

then the repository for those votes

is

reform.

And then it turns out, actually

no, there's a left

wing version of that.

And then

people, if they

are angry

with Labour and still aren't willing to give the conservatives a look,

there's

another

party out there with just

a very, different

set of

political

priorities that

they might

also

go

to.

cause I remember sitting, with you guys recording a podcast about a year ago

and saying, my feeling was that there are as many people out there who are as

repulsed by Nigel Farage and Reform and will do anything to keep them out as

there are people who are going for the message that he's peddling out there.

And I think this election has proved that in a way it was in a lot of cases.

I'm not, yes, the greens are doing fantastically well.

They're very appealing in terms of the social media stuff and all the

stuff they're doing under Zach Lansky.

But I think a lot of people would, the dilemma for them in Gorton and

Denton was finding which candidate was most likely to keep, reform out.

And I think that's probably gonna be where the battleground is now in.

The ne next few coming by elections and, in the next general election it's gonna

be a case of reform versus whoever,

whoever is most likely to keep

reform

out.

Would

you

agree

with

that?

There was a very telling

instance, so Rob Ford, who's

the professor of politics

at University of Manchester, did a

blog

that ran through all the different options and he said, there's a part of Victory

for the Greens, but they need to be the

alternative to reform.

And

sure enough, this got

slapped all over their leaflets with if you don't want reform,

vote

Green says politic.

And he complained and said, that's actually not what I said.

But it

was a classic version of, most of us who are

politics nerds will know the concept

of the Lib Dem bar

chart.

Right.

Which

is mysteriously like,

Lib Dems can win here.

And you find out that the

axis has been massively manipulated.

But that's exactly, you're right, Adam,

is that it became a reform versus

not reform.

fight.

And the interesting thing is that lesson

is that could be a very effective way of doing politics.

The 2025 election

was a Torries versus not the Torries and

voters

were very good

at

tactical voting and sorting

themselves.

Are you in

a seat

where

actually

the Lib Dems are the best challenges to the

Torries?

when there's maybe

West of England seats, is

it, is it, gonna

be Labour the best

place to get the Tories out or is it gonna be reform?

And

something similar happened here?

And if you look

at all the,

the polling

on issues reform

voters are very distinct from everyone else.

They don't

have a lot of overlap on social, issues with other people.

They're in their own kind of block.

So there is a kind of left block that people can move through.

And people who were Labour voters

in 2025

are not

gonna find it particularly hard to end up as green

voters.

Whereas it's gonna be harder for those

reform

to capture any extra

people.

They've, they can cannibalize the conservative vote, but some of the people

who

are now

still voting conservative are unlikely.

they're more

likely to be, perhaps, more likely to be socially liberal

or

don't believe in like the triple lock or whatever it

might be.

Which then makes it very hard

for them to be eaten by reform.

So that the

thing that

political scientists say

that they think

about reform is that they probably have a, they have a kind of

high floor, but a low ceiling.

in the

sense of actually when it comes to it, the next section will be

about whether or not Labour can

squeeze.

How

hard

can

they can squeeze

them.

Any estate agent will

tell you having

a high floor and

a

low ceiling

is,

is

is very bad

If you're six

foot three.

Definitely.

Yeah.

estate

agent would

say

it's a,

new form of

living.

and It'll

cost

you

over a

million.

Perfect.

For ho agent,

you've ever

met.

and I think, Perfect

for

horizontal

living.

yeah, Yeah,

I think,

I think I should attribute this

to Ben,

Ley.

Professor

Oxford.

He's, He, talks about the fact there's basically a left

block and a right block in

British politics.

And that's the way we've gotta see it there.

Fish.

There are two pools that people are

fishing in and Labour is

doing this awkward straddling, which is why that so many of them were

unhappy with Morgan McSweeney's, ki Downer's chief of staff.

'cause

he felt they

were spending too much time going after reform

voters.

So

traditionally

white working class baby boomers

in

those north of England

constituencies in Wales

at

the expense of younger, more socially

liberal pro-European voters

that they were losing anywhere.

else.

And the

feeling is that Labour has been

quite complacent about there aren't enough of those people

and they're quite geographically

concentrated.

It's

'cause

it's studenty

places.

We

studenty faces.

We don't

and

just wanna win Brighton and London.

Is that what they're saying?

Yeah.

Or Bristol or

wherever it might

be.

But actually we'll be,

we'll really

get a sense in the local elections in May about the fact that if there are

lots of people who want somewhere to

defect from Labour to, is,

are

they gonna go to reform or are some

of these

people

gonna go to parties on Lib Dem?

the

Greens in Scotland, the SMP.

And the same thing

with I think the Welsh elections will be a very interesting

reform

versus anti-reform.

co. I was interested in her,

victory speech in which she said working hard in this

country used to mean something.

And I.

thought,

which

party

is

that?

it could be more or less anyone.

and traditionally you'd expect that to be a

Tory, or, a Labour person trying

to attract a Tory No, it's the green candidate who has a job.

proper job.

plumber, does stuff.

that people like.

that is that workers and shiers argument from the 2015 election.

Absolutely.

Is, I'm actually, when I

say

that,

I

can't

remember

whether that was, ed Miller

David

that

was

pushing

that

particular

line.

Osborne in

particular.

Oh, was

it?

Okay.

Were the workers part of alarm

clock

Britain

or

was

that

just

about

managing?

alarm

program?

No,

alarm Crop Britain is

Nick

Flagg.

Sorry.

And

just

about

managing

is

Ed

Miller

ironically didn't have to say his

alarm clock

block after the

election,

and quiet bat

people

is

the

thick

of

it.

which

not

get

confused.

with.

think

that's about managing is

Teresa

Mate

the squeezed middle.

Squeeze

is Ed Miller

Band.

You're

right.

But they're all identifying

the

same thing,

which is

people who are

economically insecure.

And the interesting thing is that we've been used to thinking

that as people who are

in, de-industrialized

parts of perhaps Northern England.

Actually now it applies to 30 something graduates paying back their loans at 9%

of their salary,

unable to get

on the housing ladder

thinking, what

is the point?

Like, when do I get to settle

down and have a family?

And all those things I've been told

constitute

a good life.

Yeah.

and those

are, that's

the pool that

the Greens have been incredibly

good appealing to.

They've

got

that novelty value as well, which is what Nigel Farage had.

That's what stood him so far was he was one of these people who didn't

feel like a normal politician and felt like he was an outsider coming in.

But then Zach Polansky has

then got exactly

the same problem that Nigel Farra had a couple of years ago.

Which is how do you staff all the positions?

How do you make it more than just you?

But yeah, I think he's learned a lot from what has worked for Nigel Farage, which

is both having a pop at the mainstream

media and saying

they're all, a haters say against us, always works really well for

populist politicians, but at the same time, making yourself really

available.

Sack ancy has gone out

and done a

lot of stuff.

Think about the number of interviews he's done versus,

say, Kemi Badnock,

right?

He's just a lot

more visible.

He's out there and yes, he might

get into sticky situations when he goes on the rest

of his politics or whatever, but

fundamentally.

he's

just there

in people's faces in a very fractured

media environment, in a way that I think you know that.

But neither kiss Sam nor Kemi badnock, nor even really

Ed

Davey

for all his

I

say

I

don't

mean that,

do I

Waterboarding?

He's

boarding?

waterboarding

at Thought Park, falling off

paddle

Yes.

Yeah.

The

waterboarding

at

Thought Park.

Yeah.

is a

worst day I ever.

that

could be

an

American

base

by the time this

podcast

goes

out.

okay.

So

we

come

back to his ki screwed?

Yes.

Helen,

you've

been telling

me

for

ages,

Nigel

Re is

gonna

be

the

next

Prime

Minister.

I say that we should be very open to the possibility

because

there

have been huge swings and this was a, a

massive swing to

the greens

with the reform in

second and Labour in third,

and in what was previously a

really

great

seat

And the key problem

Absolutely.

Labour seat.

Yeah.

Was that, there were, there was a large constituency of quite

socially conservative Muslims.

There was another bit of the seat that.

Was, white graduates essentially.

Now

those are two groups that have,

some things in common, but actually electorally, you'd

imagine want

different things.

And for one party to be able

to get 40%

of the vote outta that seat is quite impressive and a big

problem for Labour.

'cause it

doesn't say that there's one weird trick that they, why

don't you

just be meaner to immigrants?

Might win you back some of those people.

But none of those people, why don't we be more

liberal

on

social

issues?

that's gonna

turn

off some

of those people.

Where

do

you go?

both of them United, by the way, one of the few

things they're united on is Gaza to take

us right back to the start.

Both the kind of,

white college graduates and socially conservative Muslim voters,

both

of them very

worried about

Britain's

involvement

in

war in the

Middle

East.

So that, that was something that, that

Zach Polanski Pumped

quite

hard

during,

but it can't all be about that.

Can I, Badu came out immediately and said, actually, this is all down to

the Muslim vote and down to family voting and corruption and, everything.

But if you're gonna get a load of socially conservative Muslims to vote for a woman

candidate and an openly gay Jewish leader,

that's

a

hell

of

an achievement,

isn't

it?

Yeah.

It just

Just briefly, that they wrote, ran a very good

campaign

that spoke to people on the issues that they cared about.

That said,

there

are bits of

that campaign

I didn't like.

okay.

And the same way that

I think that reform quite often play white grievance

politics.

I don't like the Green party putting out adverts, which is showing Stan

with

Modi

to

say

look

at

him hanging

out

with Indian

Hindus.

And then

Netanyahu to say, look at him hanging out with a

Jew.

That

to me

is pressing a button that

I don't really want people carving up Britain

into different ethnicities.

and tailoring Their

message.

Differently

Or,

on

religious

sectarian grounds.

Yeah.

that's the Zack Goldsmith

going

for

London

Mayor,

tactic

isn't.

It

absolutely,

yes.

Uming.

Was

Hindu family

saying,

he's gonna take Yes,

is coming for your

gold.

He'll take your

gold.

Exactly.

I

find it

a continuation, of the fact that there are people who are

madly obsessed with Sadik Kahn,

that

he's trying to impose Sharia Law in Britain and just

say, just because he's a Muslim, I think you need, that's all

you need to know

about him.

That

kind

of

politics

is

really show some

some respect.

Helen, That's the president of

the

SA,

you're

talking

about

him

here.

really

really ugly,

wherever

it comes from, so Yeah, it is.

Yeah.

yeah.

But they've, correctly identified

that talking

about boring old green

stuff.

is

not

especially interesting

when someone cares about the heat

pump?

Well,

look for, listeners of the podcast, there was a section

which Andy was talking

about

energy,

but

we've

cut

it.

Oh no,

Oh no.

Kamy Badnock conservative's got 1.9% of the vote.

And that I think shows that she's done the

work

of

reducing

the

vote

to

its core

and

you

can

build

from

that.

And her reaction was

to

say

on.

theist Armor

is

finished.

Yes.

I Love that.

It

was

brilliant.

Mi

It by

a

lot

of

the

press.

I

mean

you pointed this

out

but

Yeah.

Hab star,

what's the

deposit.

Alright.

We

should

end

this

al of

gloating

and

we haven't even done Dubai influencers.

Imagine such

a

thing.

Andy.

I look all the

gloating

that

I've

got

pent

up

inside

me,

We

get big views

on

YouTube

in

from

Dubai.

Okay.

I'll say nothing.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I've always loved the UAE

and I believe

that

everything

they

do

is

great.

Absolutely.

I know

who

protects.

us.

You have to say that

when

you

moved to

Dubai,

which

you've revealed where we're broadcasting

from, where the bunker is.

That is

it

for this episode of page 94.

Thank you so much for listening

and for watching.

If you

would like to get a copy of Private Eye,

it's available in your local news agent and if you'd like to get a subscription,

it is

available@privatehypheni.co uk

The

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And it's

got plenty more, fantastic coverage,

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It's a fantastic magazine

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So

rush out and get

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now.

Thanks to Ian, Helen, and Adam,

and thanks

once again to Matt Hill of Rethink

Audio

producing.

Bye

for

now.