[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody JJ Cooper Carliske Lawson another the baseball America draft podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're rolling along now.

[SPEAKER_00]: We are deep Into draft season now There are significant games happening.

[SPEAKER_00]: It feels like almost every day and Carliske.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a perfect way to kick it off We're recording this on Thursday

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that there was a lot of heat yesterday at a key high school matchup in Mississippi, and this is kind of a, think a perfect story kind of life of the scout and how, you know, you don't get to kind of dictate what's going to happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you, I remember you, um, talking about how lucky we were when we saw Grady Emerson the first week of the season because we got so many swings.

[SPEAKER_01]: We got multiple games of him and we just got, got the same swing that bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was checking with some scouts who were at the Eric booth Junior and Kevin Roberts Junior matchup that you mentioned.

[SPEAKER_01]: This was a big, a big matchup circle, obviously two potential first drum picks in the high school if you can see them both in the same game.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to be a game that a lot of people are running in to see and I was just touching bases and people and it was like, oh yeah Kevin Roberts over three were three punchouts Eric with junior over oh with three walks in it by pitch and also neither of them it sounds like got many or any defensive chances in the field so you go into this game as a scout exactly it that's what I said I said what to look you go into this game as a scout and you're like

[SPEAKER_01]: This is going to be really fun, and then you basically come away with maybe next to no information on these players, like at the, at the very least, maybe you get a sense of like approach or swing, like at least with Kevin Roberts Jr., you saw him swing the bat.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure how many times Eric with Junior Swung and Miss, I would not assume that that is many, but I think my worst case scenario for high school hitters is going in and seeing them get walked because you don't even get, if you strike out, you can at least see this

[SPEAKER_00]: Why they might be striking out, but yeah, that that is the life of a scout, especially you're good because again as an area scout obviously you're going to see a multiple times, but yeah the way this works right like with the cross if you're if you're.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a fan listening to this and trying to understand, it's like cross checkers scouting directors kind of like our figuring out okay, when am I going to see this player in the lead up to the draft as you said, this is the perfect opportunity, but that may be for some teams that may be, you know, cross checker or scouting director or a top level officials one look in season and on the high school side, it's not the same thing like.

[SPEAKER_00]: On the college side, you get your in person looks, but also you have so much that you can now do.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was much on the high school side in season, you know, you're, that's, that's going to really kind of sting a little bit as far as your evaluation of the player.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is why, and I think for a lot of the top high school hitters, like a lot of these guys are getting pissed around in high school because.

[SPEAKER_01]: these high school students want to win the games and they're very obviously the top players everyone is aware of who those players are that's why it's so funny you'll hear these stories about scouts trying to like bribe the opposing coach like hey I will buy you a beer if you please just pitch to this guy we're all here to see him swing uh please just let us have something so you know there's there's there's two men on

[SPEAKER_00]: It's, you know, you're up by three.

[SPEAKER_00]: The best hitter, you know, in the state steps to the plate, the guy after him is never going to play again after this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of malpractice to be like, I want you to challenge it, throw him fastballs.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's see what he can do.

[SPEAKER_00]: No.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, let's let him on to first and let's get the next guy up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I could have saw all the teams who pitched to the two.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, to the top.

[SPEAKER_00]: And like I said, Kudos on that, on my trip, you got to see, you got to see

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, it doesn't pretty well, but what we want to really dive into today, uh, if you've wore up baseball american calm this week, you've already seen that that Carlos had a piece on LSU outfielder Derek Coriel, who I would say is one of those interesting.

[SPEAKER_00]: And fascinating players in this first round potential first round draft class to dissect

[SPEAKER_00]: You love doing these, I love reading them, but you love doing these kind of roll-up the sleeves and dive into the guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: Derrick Coriel is a fun guy to roll up.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we talk about famous.

[SPEAKER_00]: Derrick Coriel has been famous for a very long time.

[SPEAKER_00]: This was a prominent prospect coming out of high school at a very prominent program as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then he went to LSU.

[SPEAKER_00]: no one will I will say this when the draft rolls around no one is going to say you know what our problem with their career is he just didn't get a feel he just didn't have a sense of the guy to know where we wanted to line him up we didn't have enough looks that's not going to be a problem but diving into it what did you come away with as you

[SPEAKER_00]: Deep dive on your career.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so we've been doing this scouting 101 series.

[SPEAKER_01]: It really started in the off season.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a way to kind of dive further into some of the top players in the class and really explore their profiles in a way that I think has been useful for me, getting a better feel for them and hopefully useful to people who care about the draft and I think these are going to have some staying power to when the draft actually happens.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if your team drafts one of these players, we've got this piece ready to go that digs into their profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I feel like,

[SPEAKER_01]: Couriel has become increasingly a more polarizing player in this class, and that's not something that I inherently expected to happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I should have, but I also, in one of the more bullish people on our staff on Derek Couriel and his profile in general.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think after we had him going outside of the top 10 in our mock draft, or at one point in a mock draft that also came out this week,

[SPEAKER_01]: It just made sense to dig into his profile and maybe explore why he is as polarizing as he is in the industry.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because I think there are people who feel like me, like Kerriel might be a locked and loaded top 15 sort of prospect in this class.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then there are some other people who are just going to be more skeptical of the power that he brings to the table and wonder, does he slide to the back of the first round?

[SPEAKER_01]: Does he even slide out of the first round entirely?

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, to

[SPEAKER_01]: Profile some loose comparison points you could maybe point to if you're a direct curial detractor You could say guys I can't can't arella who's lit out of the first round.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are some injury questions there You could say Mike Sorota is a profile that was similar.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had power questions different conference different handedness with the bat But that's a player that we really liked at the top of the draft early on and he's slid

[SPEAKER_01]: Essentially, I think the difference in where you're at on Derek Cariel comes down to how much power do you think he's going to get to in the future with wood bats how much do you buy into the physical projection that he has and that he's really had throughout his high school career.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Derek Cariel is the sort of player who.

[SPEAKER_01]: has been famous from day one.

[SPEAKER_01]: He went to Orange Lutheran High School.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think JJ, you even saw him as a freshman at the NHSI when Mikey Romero was the shortstop, the upper class draft eligible, the people were focused on, but at that time, Derek Curiel's swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: He might have been a sophomore this year specifically that I'm referencing, but his swing was maybe the best at that entire event at that age.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has always been super hitter-ish, super polished, super advanced approach at the plate.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's also been super lean and wiery and you're like,

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a great frame to add some mass onto.

[SPEAKER_01]: When he was a senior in high school, he had kind of one of these draft ideas, not a great summer, sort of dare Dylan Cruzish in terms of like where his stock was and where it got to, he wound up getting into campus like he said at LSU.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think to his credit.

[SPEAKER_01]: he has added a little bit of physicality and strength.

[SPEAKER_01]: He looks noticeably thicker and stronger in his really even from freshman year at LSU to sophomore year, but he was a tremendous performer as a freshman in LSU and I think given his expectations for power output, he also maybe exceeded his expectations for how hard he was hitting the ball the 90th percentile exit velocies.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now with all that said,

[SPEAKER_01]: All his power numbers are below average compared to his peers in the college in class in the first round.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hit seven home runs as a freshman in 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's hit just one home run so far this season and I also

[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of went back and updated the I did a piece of few years ago looking at Enrique Bradfield's profile because he had one of these extreme outlier Super speedy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, more toolsy than Karel is today.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's an eight, that's an eight defender and eight speed and in Karel maybe doesn't have a single 60 on the card.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not his hit tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I just kind of plugged in in this exercise.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was basically looking at

[SPEAKER_01]: What is the power expectation for first round college outfielders through the bonus pool era?

[SPEAKER_01]: And I pulled Derek Karel's number, and I added the last few rounds or last few years that we hadn't added to the sheet, just to get a sense for where he's at.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are 54 players in this sample.

[SPEAKER_01]: So again, it's bonus pool era 2012 to now, first round college outfielders.

[SPEAKER_01]: would rank here in terms of home run rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: So home runs by played appearances.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I will tell you, Enrique Bradfield, once I've folded in all these new players, is 50th of 54.

[SPEAKER_01]: Where would your guess be for Curio?

[SPEAKER_00]: 42nd.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a tremendous guess.

[SPEAKER_01]: Derek Curio is 48th on this list.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that I knew it was low.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, it's a little lower than I thought, but I knew it would be low.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why I'm not as enamored in him as you are.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I'll say, go ahead, yeah, go ahead and make the, make the detractor case for curial, because I can circle back and make the bullish case, because I, I do think it's nice that we have maybe two people, at least within our office on near the extremes of where we, and I would say, like, questions don't mean like, oh, I don't think he's the first round pick or anything like that, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: But we're talking about it's where is he going to slot in that?

[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a couple of things that tie into this one, when I watch him swing,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a very, I mean, this is a good way.

[SPEAKER_00]: It reminds me of a lot of Japanese hitters.

[SPEAKER_00]: The handset kind of has it, no, he doesn't kind of have the little swirl that something, it's not the real high handset that you see from some Japanese editors, but it is a hitter-ish approach.

[SPEAKER_00]: It is, the hands are there, there's almost no load.

[SPEAKER_00]: He is not coiling into his back leg to the explode.

[SPEAKER_00]: It is about staying balanced.

[SPEAKER_00]: It is about having timing.

[SPEAKER_00]: It is about making solid contact, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: is good, but at the same time, we can talk about the physicality improving all.

[SPEAKER_00]: If he's ever going to really hit for power, he would obviously need to fill out more get stronger.

[SPEAKER_00]: But there might also need to be a more significant change because nothing about what he's doing,

[SPEAKER_00]: This isn't a player who's trying to hit for power and the ball is just not coming off the bat.

[SPEAKER_00]: Everything is geared to not do that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Everything is geared to hit and by the way, if I really get into the one home run, he's at this year, he really got into it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that might be his most impressive home run he's hit in college so far by far that one was like, okay, that Wow, that almost went to the back You know, I think it was one Homer his junior year at orange Lutheran one Homer I believe his senior year at orange Lutheran

[SPEAKER_00]: And then as you said, this is the guy who going back to high school power has never this is not someone where it's like, oh, they're at the time she's shown it.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's never been a big part of his game and if it was, I think he never gets sell as you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's the significant reason why he got to campus like it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ben brought up this comparison and it's a little bit different because of the positional profile, but if you guys remember Bryce to rank, his high school, he's also so-called hit first premium defensive position left-handed hitter with a lean frame and real power questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I-

[SPEAKER_01]: My bullish case for curial likes that comp to bright strength.

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, bright strength has become a very valuable player.

[SPEAKER_01]: We maybe can get into the infield outfield differences there, but and I'll also acknowledge to ring was a plus runner at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you turned in 70 grade times, curial is not that, but continuing.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the thing I'm also challenged with this is, is that curial fits in the group where if you said,

[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned Bradfield, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We have every one new Enrique Bradfield was never going to hit from power when he was at Vanderbilt.

[SPEAKER_00]: There was no part of it where you're like, well, as you get stronger and you get big and it's like, no, that'll actually probably just mean that he hits more, you know, fly balls that get caught.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want him to hit the ball further because they don't want falling between the and feeling that thought exactly.

[SPEAKER_00]: But when you're doing that with a guy who's like you said, could you could project us an eight runner with eight defense in the center, you're like, who cares, you know, like that's not what his game is.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's where I feel like I have this little worry that Derek Coriel could end up being that guy who

[SPEAKER_00]: He's fine, is what I mean.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, and again, do understand, I think I'm going to keep hammering on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you draft a player even in the first round and he ends up being a perfectly fine big leager, I love that you do these draft, like look backs where you kind of redraft the draft and all, I think it's really useful.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you read them even just for those listening, if you read those looks backs, like, hey, we're gonna look at the 2020 draft where we're gonna look at the 2015 draft,

[SPEAKER_00]: it really does illustrate for you that you don't, you still are in the first round of redrafting players.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you take the entire team of draft and you are at pick 21 and you get a guy who's like, he's fine, you did great.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right, and this is also part of the reason why I really like Derek Curiel because I think in the draft there's a lot of dreaming that happens and for good reason you want to think about the impact that a player can have and basically every player who's in the first round has more explosive tools and some capacity to Derek Curiel, but why I like him is because I think he does a skill at an incredibly high level that is basically impossible or very, very difficult.

[SPEAKER_01]: to teach.

[SPEAKER_01]: I talked to a number of scouts who I say the hit tool counts twice and I think Derek Curry else pure hitting ability.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has a case as the best pure hitter in this class.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you're talking about his approach offensively, it's a bit of a cliche, I think, but he legitimately does hit the ball where it's pitched.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you dial up all of his outer third pitches, his spray chart is going to the opposite field.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at his middle third pitches, he's going up the middle.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you throw him inside, he's turning on the baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's he's one of the best contact hitters in this class.

[SPEAKER_01]: He makes a ton of contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's around 90% overall contact rate a little bit north of that in zone contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just think he is one of these natural born hitters who's always going to hit and then for his secondary tools while we've talked a lot about how.

[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have a lot of power, and he doesn't have all these tools, like he is a good defensive centerfielder.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he elites?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, I don't think so.

[SPEAKER_01]: He is a good runner.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he elite?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, I don't think so.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if he is a 55 fielder in centerfield, and he's a 55 runner, and he's a 60 hitter,

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that profile is really compelling, truthfully.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think if you go back and look at some of the players who aren't the sexiest players in the world, but to your point, I think Alex Rodrigo is a player that I brought up when we're talking about him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oxford, due goes to guy who went in the second round in 2014.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's never hit more than 13 home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's had five seasons worse between 11 and 13 home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's like a 40, 45 in-game power sort of profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he's also guy that's had four plus seasons between two and three, war.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's been a rock solid, MLB regular.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you redraft that 2014 draft, Alex Frodo goes probably going to go right in the middle of the first round.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think that is your case.

[SPEAKER_01]: for curial.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you think he's the player who's going to be an MLB solid regular and play premium position, that's a good draft pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I also think there is a like best case scenario here where dirt curial does add more strength and adds more power.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I probably will long be the high guy on curial.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if he slips much more than like the late teens into the 20s, I'm going to be like shouting about this pick on draft day.

[SPEAKER_01]: But but I quite like him.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'm going to take what you say, agree with it and say, then take the exact opposite way.

[SPEAKER_00]: As you were going through and laying out players, you're like, it's kind of, could you be like this guy?

[SPEAKER_00]: Could you be like this guy?

[SPEAKER_00]: There were almost all guys who were not drafted in the first round, because players with this profile who are less famous, often are kind of the guys who are like, that's a really good second round pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a really good supplemental first round pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: guys like like the the ultimate version of this like we like we had in that slack discussion someone said could he be Stephen Vaughan right and I would say if you are talking about pure generous hitters who end up being great at hitting

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, who are that's their impact.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think even even Stephen Kwon We'll look at Derek Curiel's contact and strike out rates and be like, Oh, Oh, that's horrible.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because his contact was even more extreme.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, but what I would say, and they were, it was, but that was also not, that was a guy who was not even sniffing the first round.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the other part would have that big picture of this college out filters.

[SPEAKER_00]: No one wants to say this, but it's reality.

[SPEAKER_00]: College out filters in the first round is a nightmare.

[SPEAKER_00]: demographic.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just going to rattle this off.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to throw out the last couple of years.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: The guys you're having a chance to.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: 2015 to 2023.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to 2023 23 down.

[SPEAKER_00]: And these are all guys we're taking top 30 picks basically, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Dylan crews 23 picked two.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now Dylan crews are the big glieger.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that right now, it's a little disappointing, but at the same time going back to what we're just talking about, he's going to end up at even if he doesn't like progress.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to end up with 3,000 Megalied plate appearances probably, which

[SPEAKER_00]: by what we just talked about is way better than a lot of the guys that we're gonna get on this list.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right, like for great pick at four, he looks like a potential star.

[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about brand field, not a big league or yet, but, you know, should be before long.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say Chase Davis, Gavin Cross in 22 though, the water at 22, it's been hurt Spencer Jones in the 2022 first rounder, who's still not in the big leagues, we still don't know what is going to be and he's definitely already been sent to AAA.

[SPEAKER_00]: Colton Calzer, solid pick and 21, South Free, looks solid pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: Testing Keerstag can't really get established in the big leagues, Garrett Mitchell can't stay healthy.

[SPEAKER_00]: J. J. Bladay has turned out to be solid, but he needed to go to the second team to do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hunter Bishop did it never worked out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Travis Swaggerty had never worked out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Trevor Larnak has been in the big leagues, but really never kind of taken a step forward.

[SPEAKER_00]: Seth Beer.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, Adam Hainesley, not really know.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jared Kendall, not really know.

[SPEAKER_00]: Cory Ray, no, Kyle Lewis had a good year, but then that was kind of it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Andrew Ben and Tendi's been good.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ian Haps and good.

[SPEAKER_00]: DJ Stewart, no, Kristen Stewart, no.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's every first round pick 2020 outfield or college outfitter, 2023 to 2015.

[SPEAKER_01]: you're getting teams really excited for the possibility of drafting the likes of Drew Burris and Couriel and Sawyer's Trust Nighter and AJ Grascia here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm not doing them any favors and I don't mean it that way, but I just want to point out like, and the thing I'm pointing out about that is, is a lot of these guys, Corey Ray was the fifth pick, Adam Hainesley was the eighth pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: Travis Swirety was the tenth pick, Hunter Bishop 10, J. J. Bladev, four,

[SPEAKER_00]: Colt, you know, Hesting Kierstead 2, Gavin Cross 9, like these are guys going in the top 10 picks and

[SPEAKER_00]: You look at it a year or two later and we're doing stories about like the the reason that it hasn't all clicked for them right yeah like Travis Swaggerty nothing against sky but he at the minors and there was never really a time in the minors where if you talked to a proskeal song that anyone was like yeah you got to keep an eye on that it was like I don't know why that guy would right and so this is what I'm saying like is.

[SPEAKER_00]: your point, I think is a good one, which is if Derek Coriel ends up being Alex Verdugo, that's a good pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can also take that same way, bottle it and say in this draft class with all these like short stops and you know, high school short stops that you could like all the other, you know, I think that you could look at it and say, maybe I want to go in a different direction and partly because the college outfit, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a profile where, to go back to, I like how you're at the scout, you talked to said that the hit tool counts twice and I've got a good way to look at it because I'll often the hit tool then develops in the power.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the other thing is is if you're a college out filter who's drafted, you better hit from day one in the minor leagues and if you don't, you kind of look around and go other than the Bradfield type exception, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Other than the guys, you're like,

[SPEAKER_00]: Denzel Clark, you know, with the A's, it's like if Denzel Clark hits 230, but gives you like basically runs down balls in front of him behind him in the gaps in the field, you can live with that, but if you don't have that kind of defense, then you end up with, you know, the again, you went up with the guy who sits there kind of,

[SPEAKER_00]: talking the long and triple A and you're like, oh, we're going to bring him up Cam Eisner, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's good enough defensively.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's athletic.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's good defensively.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get him in the big leagues at some point.

[SPEAKER_00]: But he ends up, he's not really much better.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if he's been better than Jake Mangum, who was a senior sign college outfielder, who goes later.

[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't feel like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: the delineation between the top college out filters in a class and the oh you can get this guy in the second, third, fourth round is as much as it is like, hey, I really like this short stop, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, those are good points.

[SPEAKER_01]: I also think Jake Mangam might be a good player to maybe reinforce why I like Derek Creel.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes these hitterish guys who just haven't had power pan out and ultimately, I think they do.

[SPEAKER_00]: Super important.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you probably don't want to take it with the top 15 pit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think how I would say it is like, maybe there is a lesson here in the industry.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, why have all these players we're talking about in hindsight would go in the first round,

[SPEAKER_01]: Why have they been so low?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like maybe we're a little too skeptical of this profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: That this is again, my bear case, my, not my bear case, my bullish case for curial.

[SPEAKER_01]: I, again, like I don't know that you can name two players that you are confident have better peer hit tools.

[SPEAKER_01]: And ultimately that's what we're looking for in the first round in Derrick Curio has it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But let's, I don't want to talk to that player too.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you say that,

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so now this is the part I wanted to bring up because this is the other guys at the top college outfiters at the near the top of our current draft rankings, we're working on an update, you know, these guys may move around a little bit, but so Drew Burris.

[SPEAKER_00]: pure production.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Drew Burris is not someone who has as famous as Coriel coming up, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: He was famous, but he was not Coriel famous, but Drew Burris.

[SPEAKER_00]: reaches Georgia Tech and from day one was like, wow, like this was a guy who had a freshman season that really did kind of just.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 1,300 OPS as a freshman, which many most college players never even get close to.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has been the most productive college hit over the last three seasons.

[SPEAKER_00]: I 381, 512, 821 as a freshman with 25 homers.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's just be clear.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is a better season than Derrick Coriel.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's like, it's a better season than basically everyone in this draft class has had.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: You could even include, I think, I think that season is probably better than Rock Chalowski's best season.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, yes, I would argue with it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, yeah, I would agree.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so, that's the, so the universe, like, okay, let's go.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is, you don't have to project here.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the guy who's doing it already.

[SPEAKER_02]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: But and this is where my exposition I'll get into in a little bit about, you know, my, my short king all stars like he is a five foot nine, I believe he's listed at one 89.

[SPEAKER_00]: uh you know what 85 five foot nine one 85 yeah from house to county high by the way shout out hosting county my nephew went there a lot of players have gone there over the years uh that was a deal hall was there one estate title there my nephew went there that was school start around when I was growing up but is that is my home county

[SPEAKER_00]: So I have to acknowledge my bias.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to have bias for guys who are from Houston County.

[SPEAKER_00]: That was in between Warner Bros. and Perry.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm from Perry, Houston County, Houston, big high school is in between the two, which is really the area that's blown up since I left many, many years ago.

[SPEAKER_00]: But okay, take that aside.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you could say like, okay, there's great production there.

[SPEAKER_00]: But when you talk about

[SPEAKER_00]: all this.

[SPEAKER_00]: You really are with Drew Burris, not that he's going to be the slug and left field or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But

[SPEAKER_00]: You're even more betting on the bat there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Are you not like this is something where I think there's just a comfort level there where you don't need to project on the power you've already seen it and I do think maybe you can get a little bit skeptical here because his offense of approaches entirely different than Derek Couriel and the industry has been fooled by like college bat merchants in the past it is just easier to hit on runs in college baseball right now than it's going to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: in the minor league overall with wood.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the best home run environment we've ever seen.

[SPEAKER_01]: But curryel just or excuse me, Burris absolutely just has more power in general.

[SPEAKER_01]: However, you want to cut it up like you don't really need to project a ton to feel confident.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to hit for some impact in the major leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: Unless you're just super bullish on this approach, not translating.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think most people will give him some benefit of doubt there.

[SPEAKER_00]: But let me ask you this though.

[SPEAKER_00]: Does Burris having that season he has a freshman?

[SPEAKER_00]: Does that also potentially work a little bit against him?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I say that because I've watched him as a freshman, watched him last, what, in watching him this year, I tried to watch like every ball he put in play this year, Lee, you know, prep for this.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it is hard to say I don't think he's hitting the ball as well this year so far as he has when he's been on those stretches like he was the freshman and I'm asking from that not because I mean that is on his recipe he's already done that he's already trained but I guess what I'm asking is.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you have a guy who.

[SPEAKER_00]: by nature of being five non is not going to be viewed as predictable, as someone who's six foot four lean, you know, all that, right.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you see that player, nothing against him, but there really is nowhere to go up from that season.

[SPEAKER_00]: Just doing that season three years in a row would make you one of the greatest college players, Tommy White kind of had this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Tommy White's freshman season in NC State,

[SPEAKER_00]: That first two months at it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Tommy takes was born was is so good that it basically meant he's really struggled to be as good as that ever since.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's been a good editor, but when I'm asked with first is, if you're a guy, if you're evaluating this in the front office, does the fact is like,

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't feel like they need better here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't think that the first season is a negative for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think what you're describing here is a microcosm of how teams are viewing him as a prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: In the sense that you have to be really confident that everything he's doing now is going to work because there's just less projection for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's not a lot of physical projection.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can't say, oh, he's going to add more strength.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to grow into his frame.

[SPEAKER_01]: He is kind of grown into his frame.

[SPEAKER_01]: He is maxed out.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a five foot nine right right college out fielder who there's nothing more coming.

[SPEAKER_01]: So in one sense, you could say you don't need to project on Drew Burris and in another sense, you could say you can't really project on Drew Burris.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it also really comes down to like how confident in the tool set in the power that he has right now are you.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the height conversation is an interesting one to have because this is going to be talked about

[SPEAKER_01]: for Drew Burris significantly throughout this process.

[SPEAKER_01]: We talked, we did a 101 on Drew Burris earlier.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think this was an off season 101, but in closing, I tried to sort of contextualize how rare it is to see a five foot nine right-right college outfielder who goes in the top 30 picks.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're only seven right-right college outfielders, listed under six feet and,

[SPEAKER_01]: Let me tell you, Drew Burst is not six feet and a lot of these guys are probably not six feet in the study because they all get an intro to it as like more, but listed as we're now for the first time, let's just say, like.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that the two places from what I understand, the two places where you will see more lying about someone like a dude being six foot is every dating app that ever is existed and call a baseball roster.

[SPEAKER_00]: They spell roster.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's funny.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll talk to players like at the field and I'll like ask them, I've asked multiple times this has happened.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've said, oh, like how tall are you?

[SPEAKER_01]: And they'll say, incleeds are not.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so like that's probably how they get around it a lot.

[SPEAKER_01]: But again, like here's the list of right-right college outfielders under six feet who went in the first 30 picks of the draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: Kyler Murray in 2018, Philip Irvin in 2013, Jay Peyton in 94, Calvin Murray in 92, Kevin Romine in 1982, Chuck E. Kennedy in 1981, Paul Powell in 1969.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's research from the baseball cube.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the end of the list.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I do think that if you kind of expand your demographics allow for left-handed hitters, we are seeing teams draft short hitters more frequently in recent drafts and I think there's good reason for that because a lot of those players have paned out, I think there is just traditionally been a lot of nitpicking about physicality, what a player it looks like, but when you've now seen more and more short hitters who do hit for power,

[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to not look at guys like Southfrellic and Kevin McGonagall and Matt McClain.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not one of these seven Kevin McGonagall, which is basic.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ruby burrs his height and weight as listed at least, right, almost exactly.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think the right right outfield element is going to ding a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a little harder to do that straight Kevin McGonagall comp.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I know you've done some research into like the height of hitters here judges.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm curious what you found with that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Before we get there, I do want to go like unpack a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know a lot of people hearing this are going to already know this, but there's a rightful bias against the right right outfielder in college baseball because in some way shape or form, it is speaking to some kind of, I would say, deficiency in your game.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're an amateur in your right right and you're playing the outfield, why are you playing the outfield instead of the infield is a question you can't have this with their career and some other guys that are left left like there are no infield position for you to play, but if you're already an outfield, there is a question of like, okay, why did you get pushed either your hands are horrendous or you can't throw the ball Chandler Simpson played in field in college.

[SPEAKER_00]: Chandler Simpson, if you watched him throw in college, it was not a pretty story.

[SPEAKER_00]: But even a guy like that who you could look at and say, this guy will be like, there should be a rangey center of fielder.

[SPEAKER_00]: It feels like no piece of shortstop second baseman and then pro ball he moves, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: To be a right right out fielder, like we were talking about Kevin Roberts Jr. earlier, and he's a shortstop.

[SPEAKER_00]: No one thinks he's gonna be a big league shortstop,

[SPEAKER_00]: When you say, well, why is he doing that on the high school team, he probably is the best shortstop on even a high school, a very good program, the one that produced Connor Griff and a couple of the race again.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, so if Drew Boris, you know, is a right right outfielder throughout his college career, there is some thought right there that, okay, does that, is it hands?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is it reads?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is it arm?

[SPEAKER_00]: What is it that meant that he couldn't be a great hitting second

[SPEAKER_00]: But the flip side of that is, is I think the teams, I mean, I think the brewers are on top of this for anybody, but they love their short kings.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say that we've seen, I've got a study, I'm gonna put it up at baseballamerican.com soon, but we'll put a couple of graphics of it up on the YouTube version of this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Over the years, there has been a strong bias against short hitters, where that is meant that that is one of the demographics that I feel like has been a wonderful one to fish from.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the flip side of that is like,

[SPEAKER_00]: The flip side is is the tall, like yes, everyone dreams that you are, you are signing air in judge, right, which by the way, air in judge destroys some of the studies on this because they're just aren't that many players or that tall.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you look on any kind of production rate basis,

[SPEAKER_00]: Aaron judge is like, wow, six foot eight outfielders.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the demographic you want to go on.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's also funny.

[SPEAKER_01]: His Aaron judge does not hold up well in this college power production survey.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's 43rd of those 54 players I mentioned at the top because he did play in a tough or home run environment at the time, but he also just wasn't the Aaron judge.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, so I believe was his college high?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't know the high.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had 18 home runs in 169 games and his home run to play to parents rate was 2.51%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Curryels is currently 1.97 and Rike Bradfield 1.75.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like pretty similar to those guys, which is just shocking to think about.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he was listed as 6.7, 250, 255 at the time, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And his career high in Homer's was 12.

[SPEAKER_00]: He had 12 Homer's and 15 doubles.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's his best year in college.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like that's, you know, that was a, that was a, that was a, like a, your first, your first, does that a non-conference place?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what I say though is it's over the years what we've seen is, is that, and again, the problem with all of these studies is, is that there is an observation effect, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: If you observe a,

[SPEAKER_00]: If you observe something that is basically to use money ball, and I mean money ball in the, hey, we want to find inefficiencies and attack them, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: If teams are not drafting short hitters because, and that's a really low value, well then if everyone figures that out, all of the sudden short hitters are gonna get overdrafted and it goes the other way, the same way that we saw like, again, to go back to money ball, the money ball draft works like if you read money ball, it's like, oh, throw your pick away drafting for its builder,

[SPEAKER_00]: a high school first basement.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ha ha ha, Scott Kazmeer.

[SPEAKER_01]: Wasn't that the high school picture draft, too?

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah, yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Set your, set your picks on fire by drafting.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've got Jeremy Brown here that we can take.

[SPEAKER_00]: And what it was is like, you saw this.

[SPEAKER_00]: There was a time where if everyone says, this is the inefficiency and they adapt.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, then you've just created a new inefficiency.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't want to say like, you just draft short out filters or short hitters.

[SPEAKER_01]: You basically want to be zicking while everyone else is zagging, get those benefits, and then free adjust when everyone adjusts to you.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you do look at it, like the hit rate on short hitters in the draft is consistently at the top of the draft, I only looked at the top hundred picks.

[SPEAKER_00]: But like those players make it to the majors more,

[SPEAKER_00]: Then the traditionally tight you know heights the six foot one six foot two six foot three Right and way more the taller you get the hit rate goes way down and yes Aaron judges in there But there's just a lot of other guys in this by the way looking not at just college.

[SPEAKER_00]: This was looking at all Top hundred hitters by height 22,000 one the present.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you just see that like the hit rate goes down as players get taller I think that there's also a part of that in the fits him with Burris

[SPEAKER_00]: to McGonagal, we should have been on the show for this, because, you know, Ben Ben.

[SPEAKER_01]: The fan is the short king.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a joke on future projection that didn't be any short left-handed hitter Ben is going to love.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, but, but McGonagal is a perfect example of this though that if I feel I know he was from the north east and all, but if Kevin McGonagal is six foot two, he's going to top 15.

[SPEAKER_00]: He would have been a top 10 pick probably.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that was like, example of, it was wrong.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I know he hasn't made it to the big leagues yet.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, that was even weirder because I feel like even in that draft in 2023, we've kind of been talking about that for years.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we've seen examples of players for years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that one has just always been surprising.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, I'm seeing this a lot of this, huh, to...

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that Drew Burris being short is an advantage for him as a hitter because shorter levers, you know, you don't have, you bat to ball skills like it is not surprising to see that if you look at batting average, and again, this is not, I looked at batting like short hitters hit for a higher batting average in general than taller hitters in the draft.

[SPEAKER_00]: they have a better strikeout rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now again, it's not much and it's a little noisy because as you said also the problem with this is that it's what players were listed at a lot of cases.

[SPEAKER_00]: So all that, but Drew Burris, like when I look at Drew Burris, I get why you would be scared if I was a team because it is a pull heavy hit the ball over the fence approach.

[SPEAKER_00]: pull heavy hit them all over the fence and he hits them all 475 feet and you go, okay, we'll put a wood bat in his hands and that will be 445 feet.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's fine, because it's still going to clear the fence by 20 feet.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's one where you take that and put it to

[SPEAKER_00]: Then some of those balls that are leaving the, you know, clear in the fence now aren't going to clear the fence.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's a hitter, but that's, that's a lot of us now you.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now you're saying, okay, again, I'm making the case for Drew Burst and I'm saying like, I get it though because like with Derek Coriel, like when you said he's fine, if you feel comfortable that Derek Coriel is a 55, maybe he gets to a six in center.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's fine with everything else.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the kind of guy that you turn around and it's like, okay, we could have done better with our pick, but you know, that's fine.

[SPEAKER_02]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: Varus is in that group of, if that power goes from like, oh, now he's a 10, 15 home run guy with a wood bat.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you say, okay, well, he, he's not going to be a six center field or no one.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think anyone really thinks do you like no, I think they have pretty similar and even speed now, like I think first in the past is showing more plus run times, but I, I view them in a similar sort of bucket defensively and maybe would even edge towards curielles instincts, Drew Burris is about.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Karel has got a little bit better.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I was getting a lot of four twos, like when I was watching that today.

[SPEAKER_01]: And again, left left, right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, Karel, I mentioned this too.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think Karel gets better home to first times often because it gets out of the box quickly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you will have just better actionable speed for a lot of their, their better balls.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think in the outfield, I would imagine they're pretty similar runners.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I can also see Karel's speed just holding a better game on the frame.

[SPEAKER_01]: So.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're close though, I would say.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think like if you think that if you feel like Burris has a chance to be a six and center, which I think that's that's asking a lot, but if you did, then you could go kind of back to that, okay, I feel really comfortable about what this at least, not worst case scenario, but if it doesn't work out as well as be hope, what we still got.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you think our probably going to have a better center for your team, one of those teams,

[SPEAKER_00]: Run product, one prevention is very important to our approach.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so we'll always have a better center fielder than this.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you can even say for Couriel, this exact thing happened.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was playing left field as a freshman.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's because there was a 70-grade runner on LSU's team.

[SPEAKER_01]: Chris Danfield was there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I mentioned this, but I think Derek Couriel, in a vacuum, can be a center fielder long-term and be a good one, a solid one.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I also don't think he's a defensive center filter that is shoving other people off the position.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's the guy that has a potential get shoved depending on what your roster looks like.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that if you compound the power questions with a non center profile, that's when it gets a little tricky.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's why I do think with both of these guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, we'll sneak peek a little bit of work as we're doing our updates and all.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're getting some move down momentum on both of those guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: As you dive into these guys, like we always talk about it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Part of the draft is it's over analyzing everyone, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because it's, you know, why it's also a little bit annoying because I feel like prior to the season, we did have Drew Burris in this 10 to 20 bucket and we got feedback to move him up higher than that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like consensus, first team, Alfielder, we move him up and now this season's going and it's like, oh, Drew Burris down, it's like, okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think part of that though is is that and this kind of goes back to you said like the hit to accounts twice and these are two guys who like I think you could argue.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I'll ask the question I shouldn't argue because you did a lot more work on this but.

[SPEAKER_00]: Drew Burris like as fear as far as pure hitter he's the guy who from last summer like if you look at USA baseball like.

[SPEAKER_00]: And no Josh Norris was out for us a lot at USA baseball and said he's like, I don't think rock is the best pure hitter.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ron Charles, he's the best pure hitter in this group.

[SPEAKER_00]: I wonder if that's Drew Burris.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like Drew Burris is a good hitter too.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now his approach is a little like, let me say that Karel's approach is hit hit hit.

[SPEAKER_01]: His approach is impeccable.

[SPEAKER_01]: His approach is like JJ Weatherholz approach in college.

[SPEAKER_00]: But which one, which one he sings his curry else was similar to JJ weather Holden since that time.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure it's a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's trying to get to that power.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's elevated, celebrate, pull everything.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yep.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a pole.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you look at him in the past, it was like he would pull the ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then, sometimes he would go opposite way, you know, and center field was almost like a vacuum.

[SPEAKER_01]: Which is also, it's interesting to me, even this conversation, I feel like there are gonna be some teams who will take that approach and use it as a negative, and some teams will use it as a positive.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because we had this entire debate with Travis Bazon, a versus JJ, whether it'll Travis Bazona, was far better at the time at pulling the ball in the air and getting to all his usual power.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you view that is something that is,

[SPEAKER_01]: either sticky or hard to change or hard to teach.

[SPEAKER_01]: You might say like this is the sort of hitter we want your burst to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the fact that he is now is good, whereas you could also say, this isn't a approach that just is going to have more holes in pro ball, we wish it was a little more varied versatile, whatever you want to say.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do think you could have, you could be on both extremes here depending on how you're viewing it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think so too and I think that's where it's like that's where the other part we're talking about here kind of runs into this right which is if there's a little bit more and maybe this is a short bias or high bias or what if there's a little bit more confidence that this is like it's seven slash eight raw power where.

[SPEAKER_00]: even if you put a wood bat in his hand.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you felt like, yes, this is that pull first, pull only approach is going to impact your batting average.

[SPEAKER_00]: To some extent, it may not impact your on-base percentage as much as possible, because if you have that, that's the guys the teams are not going to a pitcher is not going to be like, oh, I'm behind in the count.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let me give you a quick hit ahead.

[SPEAKER_01]: And your burst does have a 19% career walkerate.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he takes advantage of his size and he will get his walks.

[SPEAKER_00]: He does, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would say with this, though, is it's like, like, okay, if we're comparing that to, like, again, different hands, but like an ace race in this class.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hmm.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ace race has probably of all the top college hitters in this group.

[SPEAKER_00]: He probably has the least actual defense of value.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, yeah, he is almost like new,

[SPEAKER_01]: We had a question that draft chat, someone said, how is how can you defend the ace recess at top five to 10 prospects in the class if he's not a great defender and might be a first basement?

[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, because Nick Kurtz exists.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you think that's the hit power, you're living with those defenses.

[SPEAKER_00]: And well, I was going to say that was says, I do feel like, again, he's much more of a traditional what you're looking for.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't feel like if you said, like, if ace res, like, why are teams enamored with him?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like,

[SPEAKER_00]: you don't have that same concern.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, and I do think though, part of that is, there's like real analytical information here too, Drew Burris doesn't post exceptional EVs.

[SPEAKER_00]: Drew Burris is like to go back to what you're saying, is more optimized.

[SPEAKER_00]: He is probably getting more out of his,

[SPEAKER_00]: The gap between his potential power if he hits every ball exactly the best he can to clear the fence versus what he's doing is much smaller gap than a lot of these college hitters and again you can look at that either way you want you can look at that and say this guy knows what he is and he's doing the best of it or you can absolutely look at the say

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we've already seen everything we're going to see is going to be he's going to be more pitchable to because of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I mean, you look at when teams face Drew Burris, they know.

[SPEAKER_00]: his pitch plot away away away away away away like if you can you are not if you can locate you are like I'm spinning off the flight and I'm going to be on the outer edge why would I try to come into you know his kitchen right because for one you're not going to feel comfortable that you can oh I can just blow him away up and in no no

[SPEAKER_00]: and you're doing him a favor because it's way harder to, it's way harder.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you throw a good slider just off the plate, not an easy pitch to pull.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't care how much you're looking to do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it is.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can look at it both ways.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that's why these two guys

[SPEAKER_01]: I love this, we just basically spent I hope this conversation is like illustrative of the fact that it is so hard to have confidence in lining players up and saying like this guy's definitely better.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I try to be very very nuanced and how I'm talking about these players and like

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's how the industry talks about these places as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're tons of pros and cons, like we don't know what's certainty, but it is super interesting to get into the weeds and pick apart like how they're doing it and what we like, what traditionally has worked, what has and what's it's just a fun conversation to have.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say with that kind of along these lines,

[SPEAKER_00]: If you are, again, there's a lot of people out there who get into this, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I do think that there's kind of the stages of it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the first stages is the strong opinion stage where you are convicted on everything and convinced on everything.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean this and like everyone has to go through it.

[SPEAKER_00]: But that's the stage where it's like, could be basically summarized as, and I don't mean to say this as an old guy, but I'm an old guy at this point.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I mean, I really am.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll say though, basically what that tells me, you haven't been doing this long enough to realize exactly what you're just talking about there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like when you talk to the best evaluators, the best scouts out there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like being a bit scout is having strong opinions, but also if you, those guys who, you know, everyone who's done it for a while,

[SPEAKER_00]: have so many misses and hits.

[SPEAKER_00]: They understand that there's no way, that's why I love this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've been at BA now for almost 25 years and it never gets old.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think actually as we're recording this, we're day away from my ninth year anniversary.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm coming up on a decade,

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say, though, it never gets old.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, if someone looked at it, they could say, so you just do basically your calendar is the same every year.

[SPEAKER_00]: You get ready for the draft, draft, and then your prospects, you do the handbook, you do the top hundred, and then, so, new year, and we're doing the draft, and we're doing the spring train.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, yep.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the player's change, and the great thing about this is, you will never.

[SPEAKER_00]: There is no one in the world.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anyone who tells you I am certain on this,

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the part, I think the, I love how we've been talking about the draft and how you got to understand getting a, he's fine big leaker is a great outcome of a lot of cases.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: The other part I would say of this, though, is someone will say, you know, I'll defend be a here and rankings in generous like, oh yeah, but you guys were wrong on fill in the blank player right.

[SPEAKER_00]: And they're trying to find a certainty in this.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is utterly impossible.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll give a perfect example of this, I like to use, which is major league baseball teams at this point are very smart.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have more information than they ever had before.

[SPEAKER_00]: And every year in free agency, they sign players who work out great, and they sign players who end up being like, what were they doing?

[SPEAKER_00]: And that happens every year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, we are at the point now,

[SPEAKER_00]: pretty much every team is operating at a level of of of information.

[SPEAKER_00]: There are no dumb teams out there.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're used to be times where it's like a player will be signed.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's like, yes, they were signed by them.

[SPEAKER_00]: That team has no idea what they're doing.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's no such thing with that now.

[SPEAKER_00]: and they get it wrong every year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that is with big leaders where you have to be an MLB free agent means in general that you have six to seven years of MLB resume on your resume.

[SPEAKER_00]: You have all that production, all that analytical data, all the bio-mechanical data, all the everything like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it is not possible to say, this 29-year-old, this is what they're going to produce over the next three to four years.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yes, when you talk about the draft or you talk about prospects, there are going to be misses.

[SPEAKER_00]: But in the aggregate, you are trying to get better and better at it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that in the aggregate, we have shown that there's a lot,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's the flip side of that, which is he hadn't proven anything.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it had been the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, I promise you right now, Connor Griffin has not have zero big league at that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I will tell you right now, anyone's stupid enough to think that you would rather have him than 95% of big leagueers.

[SPEAKER_00]: You don't know what you're doing.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like just simply, if you want to have Paul schemes over him, if you want to have Julio Rodriguez or Cal Rollier,

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you don't think that the chances of an elite prospect being a difference maker as compared to the guy who's been toiling along and grinding it out and as a good solid one to two more player in the big leagues that you wouldn't rather have the star prospect than what are you doing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'll set you day.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't have anything to add.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that was a fun combo.

[SPEAKER_00]: That was a fun combo.

[SPEAKER_00]: We hope you enjoyed this week's baseball America draft podcast as I think we'll do again.

[SPEAKER_00]: I like kind of doing these kind of comparing contrast.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you do too.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's clearly we just did 45 plus minutes on but trying to end.

[SPEAKER_01]: We need to find basically as many players as we can that we disagree on because there's always lead to the most.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that we've got I think I can tell you this sneak peeking.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say in a couple of weeks we're probably talking

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's, because I think that there are a couple of interesting colors, catchers for us to talk about.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I do think that there's also a fun, bigger picture discussion there about how difficult it is to evaluate for for scouts and teams to evaluate catchers.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say that there are great hits, and there are some great misses among that group as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that'll be fun to kind of dive into.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, but by the way, you know, this is another of the baseball-american draft podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoyed this, please do head over to baseball-american.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: Check out Carlos's story.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we have, he has already done scouting 101s on Derrick Huriel and Drew Burris.

[SPEAKER_00]: So definitely check those out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Do check out, he had a mock draft that came out earlier this week as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, which, one of the fun ones where you pick with the scout.

[SPEAKER_00]: So,

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, if you haven't seen that yet, please head over to baseballamerica.com and check that out.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, we are working on, we'll have again, we've got to, we're going to not just update the rankings.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we'll also expand them to.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I got to get off this show and get back to a staring at spreadsheets and tinkermit players.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what I'm doing over the next few weeks.

[SPEAKER_00]: So thank you for joining us.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's Carlos.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm JJ.

[SPEAKER_00]: So long, everybody.