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[SPEAKER_03]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers, this is invest talk, independent thinking, shared success.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor, Justin Klein.

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[SPEAKER_09]: March 25th, 2026 edition of Investock and a lot of moving parts in today's markets, a nice little fall through day with a lot of green, but still some red and a lot of headlines that the market is not quite reacting much to currently a lot of this is technical bounce, a dying down somewhat of hostilities and I think

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[SPEAKER_09]: two major going on in the middle east until maybe the weekend, maybe it's our troops getting ready to launch a ground invasion.

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[SPEAKER_09]: We shall see in a lot more volatility ahead lines are certainly ahead.

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[SPEAKER_09]: But remember, volatility can work in both directions.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It can be to the upside.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And so we're going to unpack this and much much more in today's show.

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[SPEAKER_09]: But most of all, this is going to be about you,

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[SPEAKER_09]: things that are in your mind so that we can give you data and perspective, make better decisions with your money.

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[SPEAKER_09]: That's what we are, that's our mission here every day and best talk.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So in just a bit, we'll talk about today's mark performance as usual.

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[SPEAKER_08]: And we'll run down the show topics for the hour, but we're going to tackle this first call a question now.

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[SPEAKER_08]: I think it's a good quality named consumer cyclical sector that I think can see some good price appreciation in the coming years.

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[SPEAKER_08]: So I'd like to know if the current valuation will be a great place to add more.

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[SPEAKER_08]: I currently own about 1.8% of my current portfolio, but thank you not me this a lot of podcasts.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Looking at tapestry and this is a company that owns coach,

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[SPEAKER_09]: Their business has been doing very well as of late earnings, gone from a low of $3, called a dollar during COVID, pre-COVID, pre-COVID, earnings were down to percent year over year to $2.58 in 2019.

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[SPEAKER_09]: kind of a struggling business, frankly.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And then you had COVID, people stopped going out and shopping, and they're, their business got worse, like most other consumer cyclical names, but then checks started, started to be sent out.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And they started to gain some momentum

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[SPEAKER_09]: The 27% growth earnings this year, 10% growth earnings.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Next year, trading at about 20 times forward looking earnings.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Is it worth that?

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[SPEAKER_09]: Should you be paying that?

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[SPEAKER_09]: First off, the profitability is, get 56% return and equity.

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[SPEAKER_09]: You're the highest, it's ever been.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Very strong balance sheet.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Be cashable about 1.6 billion.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Also, the highest, it's ever been.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So clearly, their business is gaining traction.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Her has gained traction.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So he said, with their margins, with their growth, et cetera, last quarter, revenues are up 14%, earnings are up 35%.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And if you go look at the chart, the technicals are just fine.

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[SPEAKER_09]: You're in a consistent uptrend.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It's pulled back recently, but so is the whole market,

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[SPEAKER_09]: You have a free cash flow yield right about, little over 5%, which in this market is pretty good.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Divinealed 1% and it looks like, are they raising that dividend?

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[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, they started to raise it once again, since 2022, so I like that.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So I'm liking tapestry.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I'm liking what I'm seeing, at least from the financials.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I don't have a lot of perspective on the brands, myself, but clearly,

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[SPEAKER_09]: You follow the money and people are spending on these brands.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So let me give you a tapestry, a thumbs up, reasonable valuation, good balance sheet, and great profitability.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I hope you had a chance to participate in our Invest Talk Market Madness Contest.

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[SPEAKER_09]: We didn't have matchups day, we purposely had a little bit of a break today and we'll get to some more updates for you over on our YouTube channel.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So go check that out.

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[SPEAKER_09]: We have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes

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[SPEAKER_09]: And time permitting, we will get to all that our main focus point is about the defense, spending boom and military contractors are hitting the jackpot or are they?

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[SPEAKER_09]: We'll talk about why most of them have not moved much since the beginning of the war.

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[SPEAKER_09]: We also have voice bank calls on alternative investments, ground floor, and then warrior met coal, and we also have other topics on the docket we will get to.

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[SPEAKER_09]: How companies are dealing with the bond market right now, they're actually rushing to get deals through, so they can raise capital.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And then how has the wealth of Americans of all since COVID and how many millionaires are there nine figure earners that are transforming the current economy?

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[SPEAKER_09]: So we'll look at that data.

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[SPEAKER_09]: But your calls will be number one.

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[SPEAKER_09]: No matter what happens on the show, it's all about you.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It's all about your questions.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So give us a call.

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[SPEAKER_09]: 8.89 chart is the number to get through and ask your question on today's show, whether you're listening via our live stream on the Invest Talk website, or possibly an AM1220 in the Bay Area.

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[SPEAKER_09]: You can call right now at 8.89 chart.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And up next, I will comment on today's market activity.

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[SPEAKER_02]: When you tell your friends about Investork and they ask you why you listen, let them know there are many reasons and one is parallel investing from KPP Financial and Investorkos Justin Klein.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Parallel investing means Justin invests right alongside KPP financial clients.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He makes the same trade for KPP financial on the same day at the same price and the same percentages as KPP clients.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's no front running and no special treatment.

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[SPEAKER_02]: In this way, Justin and KPP financials share the same risks and the same potential for success.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Parallel Investing aligns the interests of Justin and KPP Financial with those of his clients.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Justin, Klein and Luke Guerrero are ready to answer your questions about Parallel Investing.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And you can learn more anytime at InvestTalk.com.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Invest Talk.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Invest Talk on our YouTube channel, and they can leave their finance and investment questions anytime on 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It hit 99 chart, it hit 99, 2, 4, 2, 7, 8.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It's how you get through and ask your question on today's show.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Let's take a look at the market overall and it was a nice green day.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Mainly small caps.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Small caps certainly outperformed up nearly 1% on the day, the Dow.

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[SPEAKER_09]: was up about two thirds of one percent, S&P up about a half a percent, and the NASDAQ about three quarters of one percent.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So nice bounce back from the tech space, which had been, had it had a pretty big drop yesterday.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So once again, nice little bounce back.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Overall, it's a bit of optimism that there will be discussions to end the Ukraine war, rather

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[SPEAKER_09]: rather soon, they're talking to Pakistan as the go-between, turn around and our our team, show us a negotiation team.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So that was of note, you also had some economic data mainly on exported import prices and they did accelerate.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Month over month, export prices accelerated to one and a half percent from

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[SPEAKER_09]: only 0.6% the month before and in-board prices of 1.3% that's up from 0.6% increase in the previous month.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So we'll see how this evolves, we're really not gonna get true inflation data until next month when we get a full month of being in the midst of high oil prices and the war and what that really does to cost pressures within the broader economy.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So that will be interesting to see how that continues to evolve.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Treasury for treasuries were firmer, yields were down about four to seven basis points across the curve.

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[SPEAKER_09]: really calming things across the market that we're not getting a further rise in interest rates.

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[SPEAKER_09]: They've come back down a little bit over the past couple of days.

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[SPEAKER_09]: The five year op auction, tailed following Tuesday's week two year auction sale.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So that was of no, the dollar index is 0.2%, gold finished up 3.4% on the day, silver up 4.4.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So nice bounce back for those precious metals, which had that large sell off in the midst of a very over-bought condition.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So it wasn't shocked to see that correction.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Now we're into support and we'll see if we can start to grind higher once again on the

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[SPEAKER_09]: WTI down 2.2% but well off it's worse levels and Brent finished also down 2.2% so that was the market today and my guess is we're not going to get any major move on the warfront until next week.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Now let's put it back to the invest talk voice bank here at eight and eight ninety nine chart.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Hey Justin a little bit just call out for Providence.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I'm wondering what your thoughts would be with CBS.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I have a position that I've been holding for three years.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I'm now down 30% and I'm wondering if I should just take the loss or maybe hold on to it.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I don't think I really want to add any at this point in time.

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[SPEAKER_06]: I'm wondering what your advice would be.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Look forward to your answer on the program.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Looking at CVS health, I believe that's what he was talking about, and a name that had been struggling, but has bounced back at a low in late 2024 on $43 or so, and it's rally really ever since, now up to $72, supposed to earn $7.17 this year, $8.15 next year.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So low.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Low multiple, right around 10 times for looking earnings.

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[SPEAKER_09]: The issue here, though, is debt.

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[SPEAKER_09]: They bots was at no, I want to say, I'm trying to remember the health care company that they purchased.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And they did so at pretty hefty valuations and then you had the Medicare issues and there's threats for PBM, pharmacy benefit management solutions that they offer that that may be disintermediated,

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[SPEAKER_09]: So there's a lot of potential landmines with CVS along with its debt.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And that's my worry is that there can continually be pressures from governments on medical reimbursements, Medicaid reimbursements, Medicaid reimbursements, Medicare supplemental reimbursements,

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[SPEAKER_09]: pharmacy benefit management structure, all of that that puts a lot of risk into the business.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And I would be okay with that if they had a pretty clean balance sheet, but they do not.

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[SPEAKER_09]: They have a lot of debt.

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[SPEAKER_09]: $78 billion in long-term debt, and that remains near at all time high.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So despite the free cash flow that is pretty nice, I think they need to probably cut their dividend.

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[SPEAKER_09]: and start to repay the debt.

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[SPEAKER_09]: They've stopped increasing their dividends since, let's see, 2024.

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[SPEAKER_09]: That's helpful, but still, I don't love the overhang of that debt.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So I'm going to say I would spell it and move on from CBS.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Let's put it back to the Best Dark Voice Bank for another question now.

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[SPEAKER_07]: So this is Randy from Tampa, Florida.

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[SPEAKER_07]: I wanted to ask if you guys had any recommendations on good applied materials, stocks, and looking at AMAT.

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[SPEAKER_07]: We'd love to get your opinion on that stock.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Thank you so much.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Looking at applied materials, and this is actually a name we own for clients.

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[SPEAKER_09]: We like applied materials, and applied materials is in the,

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[SPEAKER_09]: And we know that chip manufacturing capacity is continuing to be expanded, especially here domestically.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Good profitability, 39% return equity, pretty much met no debt, free cash flow at about six billions.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It's not a huge free cash flow yield only about two percent, but history says that their business is consistent.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It is solid.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It's not cheap.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I will say that it's not a bargain basement price, but it's a great business that we think we'll continue to see money allocated to expand chip manufacturing capabilities right now in a big way it's memory chip capacity.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So they're getting some business from that as well.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So we like applied materials, earnings expectations for this year, and next year it continued to go higher $13, $14 in earnings expected next year on a $369 stock.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So once again, not cheap, but worth, we think, be premium valuation.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Now we're heading into a quick break.

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[SPEAKER_09]: We thank you for helping us achieve more than 62 million downloads in a history you can call right now.

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[SPEAKER_03]: 24-7-365 with your questions at 8-8-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm hoping you'll give me your cake on Oremat Technology, ORA.

15:23.118 --> 15:30.089
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest in the better stocks?

15:30.109 --> 15:44.190
[SPEAKER_03]: Don't forget to call, Invest Talk, 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The calls are free, the unbiased answers are free.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So what are you waiting for?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Call in Vestock, 888-99, chart.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Hi, Duncan from New York.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for all that you do.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I actually have a question about alternatives investing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe this question is probably good for the listeners right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But back during COVID,

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[SPEAKER_01]: When everybody was getting a lot of money from the federal government in the state, when I was unemployed, I had some extra cash on the side that I decided to put into alternative investment, which was something called ground floor, they are just basically a private market where you invest into real estate funds and you get a consistent investment back.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Recently, I want to figure out how I can take that money out and I sent them a message and they basically said, well, we can't give you it close.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You can settle your shares to somebody else and then you can get that cash back.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, I feel like I've kind of been screwed, but I also have been educated and that's totally my fault.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But with your knowledge, is this the only way for me to get my money that invested by selling my shares to get it out?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Ground floor did say that if they eventually go public then I'm more likely to get the money back in the traditional way of to selling the stock.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just wondering that, like, what if I end up just being in my semides, they would still technically have the money, like, do I have to wait until they get into, you know, public stock market?

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[SPEAKER_01]: So just wondering, and thank you for everything.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Have a great day.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Bye.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Well, thanks for the call and start you're dealing with, but with dealing with this, but this is an education for every single invest talk listener out there.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Don't let this be you.

17:32.100 --> 17:38.029
[SPEAKER_09]: This is why we say private investments are not better than public investments.

17:38.009 --> 17:50.508
[SPEAKER_09]: say that 10 times over, look yourself in the mirror and tell that to you because you will be pitched a private investment, whether it's ground floor, which I don't even really know what this is.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It just looks like a private, re-platform that you can go invest in.

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[SPEAKER_09]: They're going to

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[SPEAKER_09]: Which means that if you ever want to sell this asset, you need to find somebody that will buy it from you, third party, and you're going to take a massive discount, 20, 30, 40, maybe even 50% from what you actually put in, that's how these things work.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Now, in the rosiest environments, if they go public, blah, blah, blah, could you get your money back?

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[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, maybe, but probably not.

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[SPEAKER_09]: You're already seeing this with a big boy's ground floor.

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[SPEAKER_09]: That looks like a little tiny guy.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I don't even know, honestly, I haven't seen, heard much about them.

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[SPEAKER_09]: You got duped, and a lot of people did.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And they got duped by the, even the Morgan Stanley's in Maryland, of the world that put them in private credit and private equity funds.

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[SPEAKER_09]: which are not that much different and you see they're being gated and they're not able to get their money out.

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[SPEAKER_09]: This is a lesson to all of you out there.

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[SPEAKER_09]: If you own private equity, if you own private credit, if you have money in ground floor or fund rise or any of these online platforms, this is just all private investments that are very illiquid and you need to

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[SPEAKER_09]: private investments are not better than public markets.

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[SPEAKER_09]: bottom line now if you're now on an individual basis you want to invest in an individual company you know the leader you know the business you know you want to help seed and be a venture capitalist great I think those can be great investments but just to throw money into a fund that you know nothing about who's managing and what the fees are what the liquidity provisions are etc.

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[SPEAKER_09]: that's not smart

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[SPEAKER_09]: I've been saying this for years, it was the most obvious thing of all time, and this callers, unfortunately, a victim of that.

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[SPEAKER_09]: He's learning the hard way.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Don't learn the hard way.

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[SPEAKER_09]: This is the easy way.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I'm telling you the easy way.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Never.

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[SPEAKER_09]: invest in private funds, private equity, private credit, private real estate.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It is not better than what you can find in the public markets.

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[SPEAKER_09]: This is only for the Charlotton that are pitching this stuff, that are collecting fees on this stuff, that are collecting commissions on this stuff.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It is not better for you, the investor.

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[SPEAKER_09]: I have to hammer this home to every single and best talk listener out there.

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[SPEAKER_09]: And you need to send this episode to every single one of your friends and family members that may possibly be pitched this in the future, that may own this stuff.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It is not better that clear and simple.

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[SPEAKER_09]: You don't know if you're gonna continue to get paid from it.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Stay away.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Take your bath, learn your lesson, move on.

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[SPEAKER_09]: Now, the next of best talk, we'll look into the story.

21:13.023 --> 21:17.130
[SPEAKER_09]: Weight loss, drug stocks, biotech, breakthrough, or market bubble.

21:17.150 --> 21:20.777
[SPEAKER_09]: The FDA's approval of a higher dose would go V, marks.

21:21.538 --> 21:26.567
[SPEAKER_09]: Novo Nortus, aggressive push to reclaim market share and exploding weight loss, drug sector.

21:26.783 --> 21:33.246
[SPEAKER_09]: For a suitable investor, they're watching closely as competition intensifies and what could be a trillion dollar market.

21:33.567 --> 21:38.886
[SPEAKER_09]: We'll dig into that story tomorrow, but for now I'm just inclined and we're ready to take your calls any time to eight to eight ninety nine chart.

21:45.515 --> 21:49.566
[SPEAKER_03]: Justin Klein is here, and ready to tackle your questions.

21:50.028 --> 21:54.079
[SPEAKER_03]: I've heard you say multiple times that you prefer shorter duration trashary bonds.

21:54.300 --> 21:56.446
[SPEAKER_03]: Can you explain to me why it is more advisable?

21:56.686 --> 22:00.216
[SPEAKER_03]: Call in Vestock, 888-99 chart.

22:05.140 --> 22:08.725
[SPEAKER_02]: There are a few things that make KPP financial special.

22:09.326 --> 22:11.589
[SPEAKER_02]: One of them is parallel investing.

22:11.629 --> 22:15.314
[SPEAKER_02]: This means they invest right alongside their clients.

22:15.775 --> 22:16.777
[SPEAKER_02]: Here's how it works.

22:17.297 --> 22:25.329
[SPEAKER_02]: When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, just in client makes the same trade for himself and KPP.

22:25.890 --> 22:30.456
[SPEAKER_02]: On the same day, at the same price, and same percentage.

22:30.436 --> 22:33.710
[SPEAKER_02]: No front running, no special treatment.

22:33.730 --> 22:38.590
[SPEAKER_02]: Learn more about Parallel Investing at Investalk.com.

22:43.497 --> 22:54.547
[SPEAKER_09]: Our main focus point today is about defense spending and the boom and the fact that military contractors are hitting the jackpot, but it's not the military contractors.

22:55.228 --> 23:01.713
[SPEAKER_09]: You typically think of, nearly, well, let's say not as much as you would typically think.

23:02.814 --> 23:13.504
[SPEAKER_09]: So the Trump administration has used emergency powers to push through roughly $23 billion in weapon sales to countries like the UAE,

23:14.176 --> 23:19.642
[SPEAKER_09]: And this includes $16 billion for air defense systems, munitions, and radar equipment.

23:20.763 --> 23:23.206
[SPEAKER_09]: And this was announced last Thursday.

23:23.266 --> 23:27.951
[SPEAKER_09]: And there's also another $7 billion weapon going to the United Arab Emirates.

23:29.012 --> 23:32.897
[SPEAKER_09]: This is a big big for the defense contractors.

23:33.638 --> 23:38.463
[SPEAKER_09]: And you would think that those stocks are optramatically because of this war.

23:39.084 --> 23:42.107
[SPEAKER_09]: But the big five defense contractors,

23:43.505 --> 23:55.096
[SPEAKER_09]: North of government, government, general dynamics, Boeing and Raytheon are all down by an average of 1% since the Iran war broke out, they're down 1%.

23:56.177 --> 24:12.972
[SPEAKER_09]: Despite the fact that the first four days alone cost $11 billion, including $5.7 billion of interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones.

24:14.302 --> 24:15.505
[SPEAKER_09]: they had already rallied into this.

24:16.287 --> 24:18.612
[SPEAKER_09]: They were priced for a lot of growth going forward.

24:20.516 --> 24:29.256
[SPEAKER_09]: For the five, trade it 26 times for looking earnings and that's near their historical high.

24:30.687 --> 24:59.260
[SPEAKER_09]: Even before the Iran war, the Pentagon was alarmed at low weapon stockpiles that we had and urge weapon makers to increase their production of rates, and their big orders to replenish this all from defense contractors, the major ones, called them the primes, but especially Raytheon, Raytheon, certainly benefit the most and is more munitions heavy out of all the defense

25:00.792 --> 25:10.249
[SPEAKER_09]: So while the others are more focused on aircrafts, for example, Raytheon once again, the focus more on missiles and munitions.

25:11.391 --> 25:16.640
[SPEAKER_09]: Currently, the fiscal defense budget is a record one trillion dollars.

25:18.002 --> 25:25.956
[SPEAKER_09]: And NATO countries raise their military spending targets to five percent of GDP and roughly half of that spending has typically gone to US contractors.

25:27.218 --> 25:31.563
[SPEAKER_09]: Many have countries like Japan, South Korea, India, also raising their military spending.

25:31.623 --> 25:33.806
[SPEAKER_09]: So this is helping them all.

25:35.608 --> 25:39.292
[SPEAKER_09]: But in many ways, once again, they are priced for perfection.

25:39.312 --> 25:47.081
[SPEAKER_09]: And the market's not really taking the one and a half trillion dollar defense budget that Trump is calling for next year, and I'd tell you taking that seriously.

25:47.101 --> 25:48.903
[SPEAKER_09]: It's not really priced into markets.

25:49.844 --> 25:50.985
[SPEAKER_09]: So maybe you think it would get that through.

25:52.026 --> 25:55.150
[SPEAKER_09]: He does, I think these events, contractors would go much higher.

25:56.075 --> 26:06.092
[SPEAKER_09]: But what's most interesting about this shift in spending is that most of the legacy programs, spending on legacy programs is actually flat.

26:06.913 --> 26:16.750
[SPEAKER_09]: While the budget for newer technologies, such as space, AI, and drones, they're seeing 20% growth or more.

26:17.692 --> 26:32.055
[SPEAKER_09]: So if you look at an ETF, like the S&P Aerospace and Defense ETF, which is an equal weight index, much higher exposure to smaller defense names, that's up 67% over the past 12 months.

26:33.487 --> 26:45.443
[SPEAKER_09]: Whereas the ITA, the I shares aerospace and defense ETF, that is more market cap weighted, has a heavier exposure to, once again, called the primes, and that's only up 54%.

26:46.884 --> 26:53.393
[SPEAKER_09]: So it shows you, you want exposure to the smaller names, because they are getting the requisite revenue growth.

26:54.394 --> 27:00.422
[SPEAKER_09]: The war is being fought differently in the,

27:00.773 --> 27:09.565
[SPEAKER_09]: doesn't make sense to spend millions of dollars on missiles and fighter jets to shoot down drones that are cost tens of thousands of dollars.

27:10.706 --> 27:14.451
[SPEAKER_09]: And the primes don't have a lot of exposure to these newer technologies.

27:15.352 --> 27:23.423
[SPEAKER_09]: And then the current administration also put a lot of pressure on the primes by saying that they can't pay dividends.

27:23.740 --> 27:38.826
[SPEAKER_09]: or by-back stock until they're able to produce superior product on time and on budget, which means they're going to spend more in R&D, fewer on by-backs, which pressures their earnings per share numbers and leads to lower returns.

27:40.328 --> 27:48.482
[SPEAKER_09]: So right now we're on the path to higher spending, but once again, on different types of companies and different types of warfare.

27:50.909 --> 28:12.855
[SPEAKER_09]: And then, I think there's a 70-something percent chance that President Trump will impeach between now in the end of his term, which means that you could see a Congress that is more stalled from a spending perspective and Democrats coming back in power in a number of months, potentially, which would put pressure on defense budgets.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So in a lot of ways, the primes are priced for perfection.

28:15.758 --> 28:18.942
[SPEAKER_09]: The spending within the Pentagon is not really

28:19.343 --> 28:22.787
[SPEAKER_09]: designed towards those names outside of munitions, especially.

28:22.827 --> 28:29.635
[SPEAKER_09]: And so this isn't exactly the safest environment for these military contractors.

28:30.677 --> 28:33.180
[SPEAKER_09]: Now, let's keep things going and drop in another listener question now.

28:33.981 --> 28:36.704
[SPEAKER_04]: Hey, Justin and Luke, this is Josh and North Carolina.

28:37.205 --> 28:47.477
[SPEAKER_04]: Called with a question about a coal company I'm looking at, HCC, hotel Charlie Charlie.

28:47.744 --> 28:51.530
[SPEAKER_04]: I just wonder if I wanted to add this to my portfolio.

28:52.191 --> 28:58.040
[SPEAKER_04]: This is a particular cold that they mind that is very specific to high quality steels.

28:58.501 --> 29:00.765
[SPEAKER_04]: And I just wanted your opinion on it.

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[SPEAKER_04]: If it was worth it to get in, just wondering if you like the company and what might be a good entry point.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Enjoy the show.

29:08.237 --> 29:09.178
[SPEAKER_04]: Thank you very much.

29:10.981 --> 29:20.516
[SPEAKER_09]: Looking at Warrior Met coal and when it's a Met coal, Met coal is metallurgical coal and as the color said, it's used to make steel.

29:22.359 --> 29:24.482
[SPEAKER_09]: And this is at a 52 week high.

29:26.265 --> 29:27.547
[SPEAKER_09]: Dear 52 week high, should we say.

29:28.809 --> 29:36.060
[SPEAKER_09]: earnings are expected to be $70.99 this year, $88.99 next year up from a dollar, $8 last year.

29:36.462 --> 29:40.807
[SPEAKER_09]: It's only a $96 stock, so you're talking about the 12 times for looking earnings.

29:42.469 --> 29:45.833
[SPEAKER_09]: Last quarter, revenue is up to 29% your VR earnings are up nearly 200%.

29:45.993 --> 29:48.336
[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of investors don't like coal.

29:49.117 --> 29:52.100
[SPEAKER_09]: It's dirty, but you still need it to make steel.

29:52.681 --> 29:53.562
[SPEAKER_09]: I'm going to lose your coal anyway.

29:54.623 --> 29:55.965
[SPEAKER_09]: This is a very clean balance sheet.

29:56.926 --> 30:01.451
[SPEAKER_09]: My worry is that their free cash flow yield is negative, but it has been improving.

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[SPEAKER_09]: It's a blade.

30:02.092 --> 30:02.773
[SPEAKER_09]: That's a good thing.

30:04.947 --> 30:11.176
[SPEAKER_09]: But the chart is telling you that things are going well and demand for their typical continues to go up.

30:11.196 --> 30:16.423
[SPEAKER_09]: And I have no issue with that to be honest with you.

30:17.184 --> 30:21.109
[SPEAKER_09]: It seems like a business that is going in the right direction.

30:21.129 --> 30:24.394
[SPEAKER_09]: The problem for me is that would this be a long-term hold?

30:24.954 --> 30:30.482
[SPEAKER_09]: Probably not because long-term profitability is pretty meager.

30:32.302 --> 30:39.109
[SPEAKER_09]: Yet, jumped up dramatically during the 2022 and made a bunch of money, but it can easily get negative as it almost did recently.

30:40.731 --> 30:42.352
[SPEAKER_09]: So to me, this is a momentum play.

30:42.432 --> 30:43.493
[SPEAKER_09]: I have no problem with that.

30:43.513 --> 30:51.441
[SPEAKER_09]: I think a momentum is positive, but I understand this is very high risk and it wouldn't be a long-term hold for me because it's a thing that it can be pretty serious.

30:51.482 --> 30:54.104
[SPEAKER_09]: So that can easily, not easily.

30:54.184 --> 30:58.849
[SPEAKER_09]: But quickly, when prices go up, new supply can come on,

30:59.909 --> 31:04.966
[SPEAKER_09]: once the time period that it can actually produce high profit margins.

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[SPEAKER_09]: So I'm okay with this as a momentum play but not a long term.

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[SPEAKER_09]: 8999 chart, 899924278.

31:13.353 --> 31:16.677
[SPEAKER_09]: So I get through and ask your question on today's show.

31:17.137 --> 31:37.138
[SPEAKER_09]: Let's talk about the bond market and blue chip companies are looking to raise capital in the midst of this market volatility and they're doing so because they're worried about the run war continuing and dragging on as well as the US midterms becoming

31:37.203 --> 31:39.947
[SPEAKER_09]: and even more volatile, period in America.

31:39.967 --> 31:49.962
[SPEAKER_09]: A total of 16 firms, including companies like Glencore and Citadel, so nearly $22 billion of investment-grade bonds on Monday and Tuesday.

31:49.982 --> 31:54.610
[SPEAKER_09]: And that's after issuance really came to a standstill late last week.

31:55.050 --> 31:57.574
[SPEAKER_09]: And so firms, luchet firms especially,

31:57.824 --> 32:00.749
[SPEAKER_09]: They are jumping into the market.

32:00.769 --> 32:09.363
[SPEAKER_09]: They typically wait several days before there's favorable market conditions before entering the market, but they did so right when the market bounced back on Monday.

32:10.124 --> 32:12.188
[SPEAKER_09]: They're trying to pre-fund a lot of their issuance.

32:12.228 --> 32:16.996
[SPEAKER_09]: And you did when the window does open, rather than trying to spread it really across the year.

32:17.056 --> 32:19.901
[SPEAKER_09]: So they're kind of getting in where they fit in.

32:20.922 --> 32:23.747
[SPEAKER_09]: I thought that was, that's of note is that there,

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[SPEAKER_09]: There worked about their ability to continue to issue more and more shares and these are investment great companies.

32:30.782 --> 32:38.594
[SPEAKER_09]: On March 10th, the U.S. investment grade market log gets busiest day on record, who is $65 billion in new sales.

32:39.715 --> 32:44.723
[SPEAKER_09]: On the previous day, there was zero issuance, why because the market was volatile on that day.

32:46.289 --> 32:56.804
[SPEAKER_09]: They're using these windows when there's a bit of optimism, a bit of clearing to fund themselves because of the inflation and growth outlook.

32:56.825 --> 32:59.188
[SPEAKER_09]: But despite the higher rates, they're still issuing.

33:01.451 --> 33:08.742
[SPEAKER_09]: But they see that the window of opportunity gets getting fewer and fewer, which means that when what about the high yield issuers?

33:11.306 --> 33:14.170
[SPEAKER_09]: There's already been a rise of bar and cost for investment grade companies.

33:15.280 --> 33:21.146
[SPEAKER_09]: They're trading at about 88 basis points above the equivalent U.S. Treasury debt.

33:21.166 --> 33:26.451
[SPEAKER_09]: That's about 15 basis points above their January lows, but still near the cheapest level in century.

33:26.471 --> 33:33.298
[SPEAKER_09]: So they are, once again, they're paying a little bit more than they were a couple months ago, but they're trying to front load.

33:33.318 --> 33:42.908
[SPEAKER_09]: They're trying to get ahead of it, trying to get ahead of the midterm elections that are likely to bring once again more political volatility.

33:44.086 --> 33:53.757
[SPEAKER_09]: And so I think that was interesting to see what they're doing and it shows you that the credit markets, maybe aren't as firm as everybody thinks that.

33:55.039 --> 33:56.801
[SPEAKER_09]: Let's grab another caller question now.

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[SPEAKER_05]: Hey guys, this is Josh and Tampa.

33:59.564 --> 34:00.585
[SPEAKER_05]: They're sure if you guys do.

34:00.965 --> 34:05.871
[SPEAKER_05]: On the phone today about, can sale capals, take a KNSL.

34:06.231 --> 34:13.840
[SPEAKER_05]: I was just wondering what would be kind of a good number to maybe get in and what your overall thoughts of the company are.

34:14.798 --> 34:18.642
[SPEAKER_09]: Pencil capital, this is in the insurance industry.

34:18.662 --> 34:22.866
[SPEAKER_09]: They provide property and casual insurance coverage solutions to 50 and 50 states.

34:24.228 --> 34:26.170
[SPEAKER_09]: Here is my issue.

34:27.291 --> 34:43.287
[SPEAKER_09]: I'm very wary of any of the insurance companies that are in a downtrend because not coincidentally, all the private equity names are also in a downtrend.

34:43.621 --> 34:49.808
[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of these insurance companies have loaded up on private credit and private equity.

34:49.828 --> 34:59.319
[SPEAKER_09]: And so the market is starting to price in the fact that maybe the assets that they say are on the balance sheet aren't really there, but they need to be marked down.

34:59.960 --> 35:05.126
[SPEAKER_09]: And so while Kinsel Capital had been growing for a number of years, growth has started to slow.

35:05.906 --> 35:13.375
[SPEAKER_09]: In 2023, earnings are up 60%.

35:13.574 --> 35:16.858
[SPEAKER_09]: Well, this year, earnings are only supposed to be up 4%.

35:18.701 --> 35:23.086
[SPEAKER_09]: And those estimates come down, are coming down, as well as next year's estimates are coming down.

35:24.448 --> 35:25.749
[SPEAKER_09]: And the chart is coming down.

35:25.790 --> 35:28.833
[SPEAKER_09]: It's off 36% from its 52-week high.

35:30.015 --> 35:36.403
[SPEAKER_09]: So when I see growth slowing, multiples contracting, it's in a downtrend.

35:36.423 --> 35:41.910
[SPEAKER_09]: It is in a sector that is, there are a lot of landmines in this sector.

35:42.920 --> 35:56.079
[SPEAKER_09]: where they've overloaded themselves with private credit, private equity, that are illiquid, that are impaired and it's probably some ways and just not worth the risk.

35:56.099 --> 36:05.333
[SPEAKER_09]: So to me, this is a, maybe continue to watch, maybe look for a reversal, et cetera, that's probably what I would do.

36:08.063 --> 36:13.792
[SPEAKER_09]: There's not major support on this until 260, and now it's at, we close the day about 3-27.

36:13.812 --> 36:20.043
[SPEAKER_09]: I think there's plenty more downside to go, I would pass on Kinsale, capital for it.

36:20.063 --> 36:30.139
[SPEAKER_09]: It was some best talk, I'm Justin Klein, we have one goal here, each and every week, they can help you achieve your own version of financial freedom, and I work continues after this final break to get your questions in right now at 8-8-99 chart.

36:41.510 --> 36:47.381
[SPEAKER_02]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

36:47.841 --> 36:56.477
[SPEAKER_02]: Now the torch has been passed and a new generation of hosts is on the job, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

36:56.958 --> 37:05.914
[SPEAKER_02]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call in Vestock, 888-99, chart.

37:11.159 --> 37:14.824
[SPEAKER_09]: Let's return to that question from Islam of Bad Dawn.

37:15.084 --> 37:17.006
[SPEAKER_09]: It was a typo from my producer.

37:17.287 --> 37:21.051
[SPEAKER_09]: And he said, guys, Vichy is down 5% for me.

37:21.472 --> 37:25.157
[SPEAKER_09]: Vi, CI is what he was looking at.

37:25.958 --> 37:28.761
[SPEAKER_09]: And Vichy is a REIT Vichy properties.

37:28.941 --> 37:38.213
[SPEAKER_09]: And it is in a downtrend part of that is the duration risk of just owning REIT's REITs are down because they of that they have,

37:38.193 --> 37:42.699
[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, they have debt, they have a dividend yield, so many ways they are bond proxies.

37:43.460 --> 37:49.789
[SPEAKER_09]: Vichy, the problem of Vichy, is that they own a lot of casinos.

37:50.791 --> 38:05.331
[SPEAKER_09]: Most importantly, Caesar's, if I remember correctly, Caesar's in Las Vegas, to their own golf courses, their own hospitality, piece of real estate, all across the country.

38:06.053 --> 38:19.294
[SPEAKER_09]: And in the world of, like we talked about yesterday, Holly market and draft kings and so many other ways to gamble in today's world and speculate.

38:20.096 --> 38:21.217
[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah, stock market as well.

38:22.199 --> 38:24.383
[SPEAKER_09]: Less and less people are going to Vegas.

38:26.907 --> 38:27.548
[SPEAKER_09]: And that worries me.

38:28.069 --> 38:32.736
[SPEAKER_09]: Beachies, revenues last quarter were up 4% but revenues were down to 2%.

38:33.880 --> 38:36.262
[SPEAKER_09]: Sorry, revenues are at 4% earnings.

38:36.402 --> 38:37.924
[SPEAKER_09]: Funds preparation were down 2%.

38:37.944 --> 38:43.489
[SPEAKER_09]: Real estate on the 27th is now at a 52-week low.

38:44.169 --> 38:45.430
[SPEAKER_09]: It's looking pretty bearish.

38:46.571 --> 38:47.552
[SPEAKER_09]: I would not own Gucci.

38:47.813 --> 38:48.513
[SPEAKER_09]: I would move on.

38:49.214 --> 38:53.217
[SPEAKER_09]: I don't like the type of businesses that are properties that's uh, it owns.

38:53.718 --> 39:03.887
[SPEAKER_09]: And it's correlation to the broader economy and some secular trends around gambling and even golf.

39:04.643 --> 39:17.218
[SPEAKER_09]: Let's talk about the one percent, the top one percent and the number of Americans were tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of millions of dollars, boomed over the past few decades.

39:17.899 --> 39:24.027
[SPEAKER_09]: All things do rising equity prices as well as valuations for small and medium-sized businesses.

39:24.928 --> 39:27.451
[SPEAKER_09]: So that cohort has grown dramatically.

39:27.731 --> 39:34.279
[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of it is making money and technology

39:34.394 --> 39:37.499
[SPEAKER_09]: they own small businesses of many kinds.

39:39.202 --> 39:44.310
[SPEAKER_09]: And they're about $430,000 US households worth $30 million or more.

39:45.892 --> 39:49.598
[SPEAKER_09]: And about 74,000 that are worth 100 million or more.

39:50.580 --> 39:58.933
[SPEAKER_09]: And even adjusted for inflation, the wealth of the top 0.1% of households has grown more than 13 fold over the past 50 years, 13 fold.

39:59.572 --> 40:00.573
[SPEAKER_09]: Know what is the one percent?

40:00.714 --> 40:04.699
[SPEAKER_09]: It's if you have a net worth of 43 million or more as of 2024.

40:04.840 --> 40:07.523
[SPEAKER_09]: Know what about the bottom 50 percent?

40:08.825 --> 40:13.152
[SPEAKER_09]: Average inflation adjusted will turn negative for this group starting in the mid-1990s.

40:14.694 --> 40:20.262
[SPEAKER_09]: And then continue to fall throughout the financial crisis, now how to get to the one percent?

40:20.322 --> 40:23.166
[SPEAKER_09]: It's typically stocks and businesses.

40:25.289 --> 40:33.356
[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of it has to do, for the top 0.1%, 72% of their wealth has made up of corporate equities, mutual fund shares, and private businesses.

40:34.617 --> 40:39.342
[SPEAKER_09]: A lot of employees, top employees, a public area to companies are paid in shares.

40:39.402 --> 40:44.006
[SPEAKER_09]: And so think of the big Mag7 tech names there in this 0.1%.

40:46.268 --> 40:50.792
[SPEAKER_09]: And the other side is usually ownership in private businesses of some kind.

40:52.013 --> 40:55.296
[SPEAKER_09]: So that's how you get there.

40:55.445 --> 41:05.422
[SPEAKER_09]: And that's why we say, if you're going to buy private investments, I talk about private investments before, you're buying individual companies that could have a big giant outsized return.

41:06.284 --> 41:12.414
[SPEAKER_09]: That's how that's what you invested or once again, you collect equity.

41:13.095 --> 41:19.326
[SPEAKER_09]: So if you have a job offer and one is a lot of upfront cash and the other maybe is a little less cash and

41:20.116 --> 41:26.787
[SPEAKER_09]: And more equity, and you believe in the business and the long-term growth, you take the equity because that's how you get to these levels of wealth.

41:28.430 --> 41:32.938
[SPEAKER_09]: So I wanted to highlight that because it's important to understand how do you get to financial freedom?

41:33.238 --> 41:43.035
[SPEAKER_09]: Yes, it's investments, mainly in equities, but better in yourself, bet on companies and businesses and get stakes in them and continue to grow with it.

41:44.517 --> 41:58.431
[SPEAKER_09]: I'm Justin Klein, and remind you about Kate P. Financial's hair-along best thing, we make a trade for our clients, we make the same trade for ourselves, same day, same price, same percentage, no front running, no special treatments means we invest right alongside our clients.

41:59.092 --> 42:01.634
[SPEAKER_09]: We should have the same risk and potential for success.

42:04.397 --> 42:10.103
[SPEAKER_09]: Please tell your friends and family about a free podcast downloads, we can find any time at iTunes or Spotify.

42:10.437 --> 42:14.363
[SPEAKER_09]: as well as check out our YouTube channel and make sure to rate our view items as well.

42:15.324 --> 42:18.248
[SPEAKER_09]: Independent thinking should success, it's a best talk, good night.

42:21.934 --> 42:29.565
[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial, because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program.

42:29.925 --> 42:34.131
[SPEAKER_03]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to that.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be a investment advisor.

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[SPEAKER_03]: or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review a perspective before investing.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is a copyrighted program of Plyne, Pavlis, and Pesley Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights.

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[SPEAKER_03]: For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461.

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[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you for listening, and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24-hour listener line at 888-99 chart.