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[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to another baseball america fantasy podcast is your host Jeff Ponce alongside me is my co-host Dylan White back from a little vacation you went out snowmobile in the great white
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[SPEAKER_00]: You know, him and the, him and the Robo Scout, you guys are figuring out what you were tweaking for 2026.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Let me ask you, we're going to put you in the spot here as we start the show, doing is the robot running for this weekend.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get a little Robo Scout.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'll get a AAA robot scout.
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[SPEAKER_01]: It's a bit early for the other levels.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I think the average is like 10 minutes or so, I don't know that or 12 at best.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not quite stable, but I think AAA, I'll give you a little taste of what's showing.
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[SPEAKER_00]: very good, very good.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We'd like to see that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We like to hear that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's been a few weeks now in AAA.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Nobody really has the samples in terms of like batting ball data for really even some of like the least noisy or like the most quickly stabilizing metrics to really stabilize.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So but it's always interesting to get some names.
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[SPEAKER_00]: He was going on what it's
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's we're not digging deep yet, you know, we're not getting below the surface and trying to find some fossils.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We're just seeing what kind of materials are out there on the surface and just kind of going through those.
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[SPEAKER_00]: With that said, we're going to spend the show kind of going back and forth, going through some players again.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is the best way for us to kind of deliver and update you on.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe some changes that have happened with certain players, your guys that are producing that, we strongly believe in.
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[SPEAKER_00]: think you should go out and try to acquire.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So, Dylan, I'll give it a, I'll give you first pick.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Which player do you want to talk about first in terms of these 10 players we're going to talk about today that are breaking out?
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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to talk about, I'm going to start with Andrew Salus.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I just said Louay and then the lower miners aren't quite deep into the season and have anything stable.
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[SPEAKER_01]: But I think there's some interesting things happening with Andrew Salus of the Marlins.
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[SPEAKER_01]: You may remember last year, he debuted as a 17-year-old in Louay because of the extremely young age, Robo Scout was crazy about him.
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[SPEAKER_01]: And then it's just slowly, he kind of blooded down the list because it became kind of clear he didn't have the power, the thump and the bat, and he just kind of slid down his his 90th percentile acts of velocity was 93 which is.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Not 3.9, which was very, very low, even for someone that young, this year, though, repeating low A as an 18 year old.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So, still one of the young guys, I think he is like one of a handful, like maybe 10 18 year olds in the age 18 season.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He has already hit a home run.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I pulled the Sevant numbers.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So last year, 242 bad at ball events, 242 in 2025.
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[SPEAKER_01]: His hardest hit ball was 109, and it was a ground ball.
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[SPEAKER_01]: His next hardest hit.
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[SPEAKER_01]: is from this year, 101, a home run.
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[SPEAKER_01]: And his next, his 10th artist is his second hit from this year, 98 miles an hour.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So he already has two of his top 10 hardest hit balls and professional baseball were done this year in his 19 blade appearances.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So is that meaningful?
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[SPEAKER_01]: I think it is.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I think it is.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I think the fact that he's already hit is like second hearts of football in his career
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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's 101 miles an hour, I think that's that is meaningful.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So he's only 18, so he's still young, he looks like he's adding some strength and bulk.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Because he's young where it was got like some.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I just think that those who kind of
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[SPEAKER_01]: uh, wrote him off these two young.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have, you know, seen me in three years when he had some muscle, you know, he might, he might have added some thump in the bat right now.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So Andrew Salas, don't forget about him.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, I'll be keeping an eye on him and writing about him all year.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely, he's an interesting name and still super projectable, I saw him down in the backfields toward the end of my Florida run.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, you know, the skills are there in the field.
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[SPEAKER_00]: He makes contact quality at bats.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if he does grow into a little bit more power and starts to show that more consistently, not even in like insane angles.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So if he starts hitting the ball hard, even a lot of ground balls.
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[SPEAKER_00]: This is how they're sort of like the right direction.
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[SPEAKER_00]: There's a chance those turn into hits, right?
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[SPEAKER_00]: Like hard hit ground balls have a pretty high batting average on balls and play.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So like that, I'm going to go to the picture route with mine.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to go with Mont Valera.
05:16.049 --> 05:22.562
[SPEAKER_00]: He actually pitched tonight in high A for Greenville, had 15 whiffs.
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[SPEAKER_00]: He looked phenomenal.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Per the broadcast, he was up to 102 miles per hour.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I tend to believe that too because
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[SPEAKER_00]: Valera shows 101, probably is popped at 102 and the backfields have to go back and check.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But like every time I've seen Valera throw in person, he's hit triple digits, like he's been awesome.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So when five things tonight, couple of hits and like both of them, if I remember correctly, were kind of like,
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[SPEAKER_00]: Swings that guys were laid on and they kind of shot a ball in the outer half of the plate to the opposite field down the line and kind of stuck one only one walk nine case so when he's throwing strikes if we've seen this before his own rates have always been pretty high I think he moves up.
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[SPEAKER_00]: and hitters won't be as overwhelmed by the stuff and will attack some pitches in the zone once in a while.
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[SPEAKER_00]: He's gonna get more calls.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's turbo stuff and like I talked about the fastball, that might be one of the worst pitches in his arsenal.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Slider is really good.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Upper 80s, hard sliders got a couple of different shapes.
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[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a sweeper slate shape as well.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Miss bats on both of those is using both his out pitches
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[SPEAKER_00]: crazy running like hard running change up.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It was up to he had a 95 mile per hour change up off the plate for strikeout tonight like it's almost like it's like it's it's a goofy.
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[SPEAKER_00]: goofy pitch.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But when, you know, you're sitting 98 to 102 in the first inning, like a 95 mile power change up is like a decent velocity separation off your sore your top end.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So just an interesting picture.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the thing about him is there's not a lot of guys that throw as hard as he does that have feel for their secondaries.
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[SPEAKER_00]: and just control and command in general.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And he kind of does have that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Like he tends to be around his own.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Like his misses tend not to be huge misses.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So Valera is one where I think like his prospect status could really shoot up if he stays healthy, if he continues to look the way that he's looked in sprint training on the backfields, the way that he looked in his first few starts.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that Valera's a guy that could, you know,
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[SPEAKER_00]: Shoot up boards just because of the level of stuff and the fact that there are like real starting picture traits here.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I unfortunately, he's not available any of my nine weeks.
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[SPEAKER_01]: But definitely a good name because I was going to try to grab him.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I saw some of the some of the news about him earlier today and I ran to my way for why, but unfortunately he's gone.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to go up to Triple A now.
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[SPEAKER_01]: This guy's been getting a lot of Twitter buzz.
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[SPEAKER_01]: That's Pedro Ramirez of the Cubs in the fielder.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I guess the book on him has been he's pretty good on defense, completely a bunch of positions in the field.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Very good contact rates.
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[SPEAKER_01]: But the the exit velocities are, you know, average fringe average.
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[SPEAKER_01]: But this year, it seems that he's added the power.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He's just kind of like the Andrew Salus narrative.
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[SPEAKER_01]: The contact in zone contact, I think he had missed in the zone.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He might have missed now, or basically 100% last year.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 85% contact rate, 89% in zone.
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[SPEAKER_01]: And he had a 103.
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[SPEAKER_01]: mile per hour, 90th percent Alexa velocity.
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[SPEAKER_01]: This year, he had 35 bad at ball events, 12 of them.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So one third of them are over 101 miles an hour at good angles as well.
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[SPEAKER_01]: It's only 35 bad of ball events, but his 9th percentile, Alexa velocity.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So like it's top four.
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[SPEAKER_01]: velocities are like over a hundred and seven miles an hour, which is extremely good.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He already has four home runs, three stolen bases, no caught stealing, 159 WRC plus, and 49 plate appearances.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, if he's a 20 home run bat now,
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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, which those exevalosities are kind of showing and he's got them at good angles.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Then, you know, he's a very interesting player, um, you know, 20 homeruns, 15 stolen bases can play all over the field, pretty good defense too.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I could see him since he's in AAA 22 years old.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I can see him, uh, joining the cubs at some point.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe, um, I mean, they have Dansby Swanson.
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[SPEAKER_01]: They have Nico Horner, some gold glove middle in fielders, but, uh, you know, he could
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[SPEAKER_01]: I have him in a couple of diagnostics.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So he may not be a 206 guy, but, you know, a guy that can put up, you know, five categories essentially solid categories, you know, 2027 on where need be like 23 years old.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I like Pedro Ramirez of Cubs.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I like them when a lot, he's a guy that, you know, I've see I cover the cubs here for BA and, you know, a guy that I had kind of always held in higher regard maybe than some other people and, you know, kind of question to a top 10 position in that system.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's a really good all around player and somebody that's going to be like a sneaky war contributor.
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[SPEAKER_00]: for a big league team for a lot of years because, you know, he is very versatile, defensively, but also like offensively like he has some feel for the zone.
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[SPEAKER_00]: There's good contact skills there.
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[SPEAKER_00]: There's like enough power that it can all sort of work and just kind of a heavy baseball player.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I think that's a really good name.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Excellent call out.
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[SPEAKER_00]: The guy that I'm going to go to here is sort of an
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[SPEAKER_00]: for a goody, and no shaltz, shaltz is somebody that it's kind of funny, was held in incredibly high-regard two years ago.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Last year, for the first time in his life, he goes into the fifth inning and starts, goes into the sixth inning and starts.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So really had to sort of stretch out as a starter as opposed to being this guy with huge stuff that attacks that line up the first time through and does the damage that he does, faced upper level competition for the first time in his career.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And with that came some adversity.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think what you saw from Schultz was
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[SPEAKER_00]: some very calculated adjustments.
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[SPEAKER_00]: The arm slot is higher by several degrees.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of back up to where it was previously, don't you could kind of call this out or what you talk a little bit about that once I'm finished of riff and here.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But with,
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[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the raising of that arm angle that arm slot, he's able to create a steeper plane on a sinker, which is essential for a sinker.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like a forcing fastball.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We're like below release height and ride and a spin efficiency creates plane.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's the opposite on a steeper plane because it just it plays better out of the hand.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's allowed him to can command the slider a little bit better.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think the cutter has been sharper and more effective out of his hand has been able to turn over the change up as well.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think when you look at Noah Schultz as he's currently constituted, he has taken a step forward, he's done the things necessary to take that step and I think at this point get an opportunity in the big leagues.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It would not shock me if Noah Schultz.
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[SPEAKER_00]: pitches for the white socks, starts some games within the next month.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If it's not within the next few weeks, because he does look ready, I think the opportunities there, he's got plenty of high miners experience and time at this point, he's got options.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If there's an opportunity for them to call up Schultz and start him, it wouldn't shock me if that happens.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And if he's pitching the way that he's pitched early in AAA, he could hold onto that job and sort of never let go.
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[SPEAKER_00]: There's not the whole lot keeping about of the white socks rotation long term.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're in, you know, a redraft league, a shallower dynasty league, if you're rebuilding and you're looking for a guy that maybe you can acquire right before things go crazy.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, targeting shots in trades is a piece in a multi-player type of deal.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's actually a really good target right now and it's about to blow up.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So I would buy in now because I think he's showing the science, he's showing the trades that you can buy into with those shots.
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[SPEAKER_00]: What are your thoughts on that, Don?
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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I completely agree.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, in 2024, he was like the number one pitcher on Robuscat at the stuff was incredible.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He was young, he was just dominating, all that stuff, and then so when he was playing the futures game in the first half, I was he was the one I wanted to watch, I think we talked about it on the podcast, and then he was kind of not so great, and we looked at the first half and second half kind of trait stat cast traits, and his arms lot had dropped, and I thought I speculate I think even in an article that maybe
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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he was heard or fatigued, and so let's see what happens with that arm slot.
14:43.028 --> 14:44.951
[SPEAKER_01]: And last year, the arm slot was still down.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of not brought him off, but I was kind of like, alright, he's got a, you know, figure something out.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He wasn't going deep in games like he said.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So like, what's going on here?
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[SPEAKER_01]: Are they babying him?
14:56.968 --> 14:59.792
[SPEAKER_01]: Is there an injury that they're kind of trying to hide kind of protect?
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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but now, you know, if he's raised at arm slot, he got nine Ks yesterday, I think, too.
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[SPEAKER_01]: He's he's a guy that, you know, he might be the top prospect again.
15:10.165 --> 15:15.172
[SPEAKER_01]: And like, if once we finish Rob was going for the season by the end of the year, um, the white socks.
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[SPEAKER_01]: They just sent down Shane Smith.
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[SPEAKER_01]: They're opening day starter after he struck out eight and had a pretty good job.
15:20.540 --> 15:23.805
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that might be a workload thing.
15:23.785 --> 15:30.016
[SPEAKER_01]: But like all the talk in the redraft is like, hey, and Smith or Tanner McDouble, but you know, I think no Schultz is the guy.
15:30.056 --> 15:33.161
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he said, he may surprise people by being the guy.
15:33.582 --> 15:37.589
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the white socks contributor from the minor leagues in pitching even for this year.
15:37.689 --> 15:39.412
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I think it's definitely a name.
15:39.432 --> 15:40.634
[SPEAKER_01]: You can call he had the pedigree.
15:40.654 --> 15:45.743
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I said, he was like number one prospect pitching prospect and Robas got a couple of years ago.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So he can reach that ceiling again.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully the person who has him hasn't just been holding on, hoping he could regain and maybe he's tired of me frustrated, maybe doesn't think he'll ever go deep in games and maybe you can get him to you.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I like it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for supporting my Noah Schelds propaganda.
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[SPEAKER_00]: All right, let's go with your next player.
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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to follow the same narrative of good contact and if they could just get exit velocities, you know, have them immediately.
16:20.255 --> 16:22.902
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's Sam Antonachy.
16:23.405 --> 16:29.771
[SPEAKER_01]: He was making some waves in the WBC, playing for Italy, just getting some good contact there.
16:30.291 --> 16:36.117
[SPEAKER_01]: He actually had very similar contact and in-zone contact rates almost identical to Pedro Ramirez.
16:36.537 --> 16:43.304
[SPEAKER_01]: We just talked about last year in AA, they both had an 85% contact and 89% in-zone.
16:43.324 --> 16:53.293
[SPEAKER_01]: And they both had a 103, 90%ilexib velocity, one of three miles per hour.
16:53.273 --> 17:04.667
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, one of them is at 106 and other one was at 105.9 and this third one, which was a home run off of Brody Hopkins was 105.1 so.
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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you call that at 105, 90th percent Alexa velocity, probably too early to call it that, but you know, did a home run off roady Hopkins with the contact rates that he has he was showing them in college, he was kind of an FYPD guy where it was that was the narrative is like really good contact, it doesn't chase let's see if you can add some strength.
17:25.927 --> 17:32.197
[SPEAKER_01]: at some exit velocities seems like he's doing it last year in 217 plate appearances in double way.
17:32.737 --> 17:36.724
[SPEAKER_01]: He only had one home run this year repeat in AAA.
17:37.304 --> 17:39.949
[SPEAKER_01]: He has two home runs already in 47 plate appearances.
17:40.049 --> 17:44.155
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, that could be 20 home run pop.
17:44.135 --> 17:45.737
[SPEAKER_01]: He steals a bunch of bases.
17:45.777 --> 17:47.319
[SPEAKER_01]: He has four already the season.
17:47.359 --> 17:50.042
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's like 20 stolen bases in the major.
17:50.102 --> 17:55.568
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're looking at like a 15 to 20 homeruns 20 stolen bases and with those contact rates.
17:55.608 --> 18:06.160
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be a good batting average good OBP.
18:06.680 --> 18:11.349
[SPEAKER_01]: He'll have the run when Austin Hayes just went on the I.L.
18:11.389 --> 18:14.635
[SPEAKER_01]: There was a lot of scuffle butt about, is it going to be Sam Antonachi?
18:15.477 --> 18:18.963
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not on the 40 man, so they call that Dustin Harris instead.
18:19.464 --> 18:21.548
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it's going to be this year.
18:21.668 --> 18:25.976
[SPEAKER_01]: Sam Antonachi comes up and he will be going for a lot of fun in redraft.
18:25.996 --> 18:29.042
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's a name and dynasty that's really climate.
18:30.018 --> 18:33.922
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and has really nice underlying skills and supporting skills.
18:33.982 --> 18:35.623
[SPEAKER_00]: The power seems to be coming along.
18:35.784 --> 18:39.387
[SPEAKER_00]: It's never going to be crazy, but just enough for him to be relevant, right?
18:39.447 --> 18:48.736
[SPEAKER_00]: You just kind of need to get over that impact threshold that if you, you know, hit for enough power, all the other skills kind of fall in line.
18:49.437 --> 18:52.500
[SPEAKER_00]: And it makes you valuable as an energy player as well.
18:52.940 --> 18:57.645
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, for my next name, I'm going to go with the hottest hitter on the planet.
18:57.980 --> 19:04.630
[SPEAKER_00]: that's James Tibs III, I think it's just, this is a good lesson in two ways.
19:04.770 --> 19:13.824
[SPEAKER_00]: Number one, probably don't need to like overreact on the performance of James Tibs in the early going.
19:14.606 --> 19:17.490
[SPEAKER_00]: It's obviously been,
19:18.837 --> 19:27.394
[SPEAKER_00]: eye popping, but he's done over the first 11 games of the season kind of dates back to the minor league sprint training.
19:28.356 --> 19:34.810
[SPEAKER_00]: Some of the looks that he had in the spring break out game, just really hit for the last few months.
19:34.890 --> 19:38.938
[SPEAKER_00]: He's really hit since coming to the Dodgers.
19:38.918 --> 19:41.425
[SPEAKER_00]: That said, don't go too crazy.
19:41.465 --> 19:47.280
[SPEAKER_00]: He's still going to find a way to break into the Dodgers, get on to the 40-man roster, who knows?
19:47.300 --> 19:52.454
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this could be another guy that's traded to another organization to get that opportunity.
19:52.594 --> 19:54.058
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if he was in,
19:55.540 --> 20:07.305
[SPEAKER_00]: a significantly less deep organization, there might be some chatter about him potentially being, you know, promoted the major leagues at some point here over the next few weeks.
20:07.545 --> 20:12.115
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's any chance that happens now with the Dodgers.
20:12.095 --> 20:32.179
[SPEAKER_00]: But the skills have always been here and that's the other part of this is sort of don't forget that that there are context skills there's always been good swing decisions the angles and power that power was always there are angles were sort of if he They've made some adjustments obviously in that regard the angles have gotten better is finding a ton of barrels
20:32.935 --> 20:41.323
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's this guy, but I do think this is like a major league quality everyday regular hitter.
20:42.125 --> 20:43.771
[SPEAKER_00]: That's going to be fantasy relevant.
20:44.092 --> 20:44.734
[SPEAKER_00]: And...
20:45.187 --> 20:55.106
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, most fantasy formats and certainly in every dynasty format, so I don't you don't want to probably buy into it like right now you don't want to make this trade.
20:56.469 --> 21:03.162
[SPEAKER_00]: But maybe in a couple of weeks when like he comes back down to earth a little bit, I do think you look at the left handed power.
21:04.188 --> 21:14.180
[SPEAKER_00]: the pedigree, the track record, up to a really small period where he got moved to multiple organizations that had to make some big adjustments.
21:14.240 --> 21:32.862
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I'm not going crazy here with James Tips, but I do think that there is, there is some actual like smoke here, you know, it is,
21:32.842 --> 21:38.896
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't think it's surprising that he's leading sneak peek at the AAA Robost gun.
21:38.916 --> 21:40.159
[SPEAKER_01]: He's leading AAA.
21:42.444 --> 21:48.538
[SPEAKER_01]: But with seven home runs and 50 plate appearances or whatever it is, you're going to probably be doing that and he's only 23.
21:49.312 --> 21:50.834
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, James Tibes definitely a good guy.
21:50.854 --> 21:51.515
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you're right.
21:51.615 --> 21:58.684
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you don't want to trade for them now, because I think the guy who's got James Tibes is not going to move him, he wants to ride this out and see what happens.
21:58.704 --> 22:00.045
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, there's not 40 home run back.
22:00.526 --> 22:02.288
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a way to couple weeks exactly like you said.
22:02.548 --> 22:03.610
[SPEAKER_01]: That's exactly the playbook.
22:05.352 --> 22:06.233
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what you got to do.
22:06.653 --> 22:08.015
[SPEAKER_00]: You got to do all right, Dylan, you know what?
22:08.275 --> 22:10.118
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to give you your pick in a second.
22:11.219 --> 22:12.881
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's take a quick break when we come back.
22:13.222 --> 22:15.184
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk about the second half of these guys.
22:17.071 --> 22:18.853
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, and we are back.
22:18.874 --> 22:24.221
[SPEAKER_00]: We are talking some breakout names, some early names to target as far as breakouts.
22:24.421 --> 22:28.747
[SPEAKER_00]: We've gone through six players total already.
22:29.028 --> 22:32.793
[SPEAKER_00]: So we are starting our fourth round of back and forth.
22:33.394 --> 22:45.070
[SPEAKER_00]: We've already talked about Andrew Solis, Juan Valera, Pedro Ramirez, Noah Schultz, Sam Antonachi, James Thibs, the third, Dylan, who is your fourth name?
22:45.961 --> 22:47.205
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm going to go majorly here.
22:47.386 --> 22:48.349
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably the talk.
22:48.389 --> 22:50.857
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say the talk of the league this season.
22:52.422 --> 22:53.365
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Jordan Walker.
22:55.291 --> 22:59.143
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure as you all know, Jordan Walker has.
22:59.528 --> 23:04.715
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been lighting it up with home runs being called as is either break out as a post-ide guy.
23:05.577 --> 23:13.728
[SPEAKER_01]: Just as a reminder, he's always had the bat speed, but in 2024 to 2025 combined 574 plate appearances.
23:14.629 --> 23:27.848
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a two 11 batting average with a 206 expected batting average.
23:27.980 --> 23:31.304
[SPEAKER_01]: Bad defense as well, but he was still hitting the ball hard.
23:31.404 --> 23:38.073
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, he's a guy that people were pay-by-taking as, you know, Lars Nupar is gonna start on the I.L.
23:38.093 --> 23:40.055
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it's a post-type flyer.
23:40.135 --> 23:41.357
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still very young.
23:41.397 --> 23:45.201
[SPEAKER_01]: He's 24 this season, but he's come out gangbusters.
23:45.221 --> 23:50.528
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I track that speed for my redraft stuff.
23:50.508 --> 23:55.035
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the average bad speed, hard hit percentage, blasts, pursuing glass per contact.
23:55.055 --> 24:00.124
[SPEAKER_01]: All that stuff that's kind of correlated to predictive offense.
24:00.404 --> 24:02.147
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a, he's a number one on my list.
24:03.589 --> 24:10.300
[SPEAKER_01]: This year, he's up six points, like sort of like a hit plus WRC plus scale.
24:10.340 --> 24:13.225
[SPEAKER_01]: He's one 21 last year is 115.
24:13.205 --> 24:24.953
[SPEAKER_01]: He has a 23% barrel rate, which is obviously unsustainable and ridiculous, the last two years average was like for him, the average of his last two years was 10%.
24:25.456 --> 24:27.260
[SPEAKER_01]: so he's like really crushing it.
24:29.043 --> 24:32.870
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got 82 swings for blasts.
24:32.910 --> 24:36.177
[SPEAKER_01]: That's around 90 swings is where it kind of stabilizes.
24:36.237 --> 24:45.034
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, if you if you've regressed that to the mean, he's still well above average, obviously.
24:45.014 --> 24:46.136
[SPEAKER_01]: So what does that mean?
24:46.176 --> 24:48.080
[SPEAKER_01]: Do I think that he's a breakout?
24:48.100 --> 24:49.102
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a 40-home run guy.
24:49.162 --> 24:49.523
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
24:49.623 --> 24:50.224
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think so.
24:50.504 --> 24:57.959
[SPEAKER_01]: But one way to kind of stress test is to look at steam or 600 before the season and happen season like to see how much they buy in.
24:57.979 --> 25:06.094
[SPEAKER_01]: So keep in mind he has 574 plate appearances before his age 23 season where he had 11 home runs.
25:06.327 --> 25:21.703
[SPEAKER_01]: And I like a 68 WRC plus, but he has a steamer 600 before the season of a 100 WRC plus so league average header 18 homeruns 11 stolen bases not too bad not too bad actually considering how poorly he's done the last two years.
25:21.768 --> 25:48.180
[SPEAKER_01]: Now after his start is 49 player in start he has a 106 WRC plus so 6% increase in his offense and a 21 home run projection so you know steamer is starting to slowly buy in and take his his recent performance more into account he's now a 20 home run bat 247 batting average so slowly but surely
25:48.160 --> 25:49.922
[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, this is what you do with projections, right?
25:49.942 --> 25:54.267
[SPEAKER_01]: You take all the last few seasons and you wait the most recent ones more.
25:55.128 --> 25:57.491
[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't doesn't have that much of a sample sauce.
25:57.651 --> 25:59.273
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're going to take it with a grain of salt.
25:59.333 --> 26:06.141
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think everything underneath, he's barreling it, he's still hitting it hard, he's still swinging with incredible batspeed.
26:07.723 --> 26:11.147
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's a chance that Jordan Walker's the guy that we all thought he was going to be.
26:11.608 --> 26:15.012
[SPEAKER_01]: When we were so excited a few years ago when he broke campus and started out
26:14.992 --> 26:16.374
[SPEAKER_01]: with the Cardinals.
26:16.434 --> 26:18.756
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think Jordan Walker is a guy I believe in.
26:18.977 --> 26:21.580
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's like a SP or SP.
26:22.020 --> 26:28.107
[SPEAKER_01]: Outfield, like, outfield three could be outfield two by the All-Star Break if he keeps this up.
26:28.668 --> 26:35.456
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously he's going to slow down a bit, but I think he's going to still, you know, be a pretty good slugger with a batting average that doesn't hurt you.
26:35.656 --> 26:41.303
[SPEAKER_01]: So, Jordan Walker buying in, I guess, is the consensus conclusion.
26:41.283 --> 26:44.167
[SPEAKER_00]: Dylan is in on Jordan Walker.
26:44.207 --> 26:59.851
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a really good name and just you know a reminder and like deeper dynasty leads to always leave like a spot or two to take a take a shot on some of these these post-hype guys or guys who have had a little success than fallback.
27:00.191 --> 27:05.299
[SPEAKER_00]: I know Trent Grishon was kind of one for me last year that I think falls into this bucket where
27:05.279 --> 27:22.758
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, had some prospect pedigree, maybe not as much as Walker, had a little more MLB success than Walker had, but it also kind of fallen into a reserve role and had been forgotten and, you know, discarded, especially in the deeper leagues where the the waivers are a little more shallow.
27:22.798 --> 27:24.440
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a guy you might have been up to pick up.
27:25.602 --> 27:33.210
[SPEAKER_00]: Next guy I'm going to talk about is somebody who's been kind of setting the world on fire from the pitching standpoint.
27:33.190 --> 27:34.934
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's Tanner Franklin.
27:36.117 --> 27:39.726
[SPEAKER_00]: Franklin was a reliever at Tennessee.
27:39.926 --> 27:42.733
[SPEAKER_00]: He was at Canisaw State for a couple of years.
27:42.854 --> 27:50.372
[SPEAKER_00]: Before that, really big stuff, he was a guy that kind of coming into last year's draft.
27:52.546 --> 28:07.956
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, those that we're in the know we're always kind of like you know this is a guy that he's got good size he's got deep enough arsenal is got good stuff there's enough strikes here that if you know you take the time and you could be patient you can develop the sky into a really good starting picture.
28:07.936 --> 28:14.886
[SPEAKER_00]: The cardinals were kind of the perfect fit, like there's a different approach in terms of the players that they're targeting.
28:15.387 --> 28:19.193
[SPEAKER_00]: They're player development and the pitching side has been revamped under high and bloom.
28:19.994 --> 28:25.242
[SPEAKER_00]: They have a new scouting director and Zach Mortimer.
28:26.063 --> 28:31.952
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think you look at a player like Canna Frank when this is the type of player they're probably going to be targeting pretty heavily.
28:31.932 --> 28:38.519
[SPEAKER_00]: relying on the stuff models and, you know, bouncing off cross trackers and scouts and kind of getting the full feel for the player.
28:38.579 --> 28:41.942
[SPEAKER_00]: This was a great pick so far, so good.
28:41.962 --> 28:49.249
[SPEAKER_00]: He did debut last year, but this is his first full season for all intents and purposes.
28:49.850 --> 28:52.373
[SPEAKER_00]: He had a really nice start tonight.
28:52.413 --> 28:56.877
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he struck out seven if I'm not mistaken.
28:56.857 --> 28:58.660
[SPEAKER_00]: And the stuff is there.
28:58.700 --> 29:01.004
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he had a hundred in his first start.
29:01.084 --> 29:08.256
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll have to check on what the peak velocity was for starts tonight.
29:08.456 --> 29:12.823
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't know how long he ends up lasting in.
29:12.803 --> 29:28.397
[SPEAKER_00]: Hi, just because of the quality of the stuff, the type of performances that he had, I just checked the box girl went three innings tonight, struck out seven, had two hits and a walk and that was on 61 pitches, 43 strikes.
29:28.457 --> 29:28.838
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
29:28.818 --> 29:37.190
[SPEAKER_00]: They're on a good rate of strikes, getting swings and misses, getting whiffs, keeping the ball in the catchers mid and not in play.
29:38.311 --> 29:40.014
[SPEAKER_00]: And just kind of generating outskis system.
29:40.054 --> 29:44.420
[SPEAKER_00]: He starts to build up, I think this guy has sky high upside.
29:44.440 --> 29:48.286
[SPEAKER_00]: So, Tanner Flank wins a name that I'm kind of targeting all over the place.
29:48.866 --> 29:49.948
[SPEAKER_00]: Who's your last name, darling?
29:50.705 --> 29:53.330
[SPEAKER_01]: Before I get to that last name that everyone's waiting for.
29:53.370 --> 29:53.771
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
29:53.791 --> 29:59.061
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you like Franklin better than Joseph Zirwah of your Reels?
30:00.484 --> 30:01.525
[SPEAKER_00]: Joseph Jerswah.
30:01.826 --> 30:02.547
[SPEAKER_00]: Jerswah.
30:02.928 --> 30:07.617
[SPEAKER_00]: It's actually says like it sounds like a J. Joseph Jerswah.
30:08.997 --> 30:12.965
[SPEAKER_00]: Whew, I think yours was a little more polished.
30:13.325 --> 30:17.213
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I think in terms of like, you know, you can go deeper and start.
30:17.233 --> 30:18.295
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just more strikes there.
30:18.315 --> 30:23.345
[SPEAKER_00]: It isn't throw as hard, but he's a lefty, and I think that he has the better secondary of the two.
30:24.086 --> 30:27.613
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a tough one, that's a really tough one.
30:27.948 --> 30:40.025
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I, I think for fantasy, you probably want to gamble on the guy with the higher upside, which is Tanner Franklin, but I could see if you're a little more risk of verse, you might like Joseph Jerswell a little bit more.
30:40.165 --> 30:43.429
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's D. Z. I, uh, Jerswell.
30:45.432 --> 30:46.173
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's my thoughts.
30:46.233 --> 30:52.622
[SPEAKER_01]: That's good to hear that because I always think in floor for Jerswell and Franklin for for upside.
30:53.159 --> 30:56.705
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so my last name is going to be a bit of a off the beat path here.
30:56.765 --> 31:01.574
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy that has a 481 babbip and no home runs.
31:02.115 --> 31:04.580
[SPEAKER_01]: So why on earth would I pick him as a breakout?
31:04.600 --> 31:07.084
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's called Keith.
31:08.026 --> 31:10.429
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been leading off of the tires.
31:10.950 --> 31:12.973
[SPEAKER_01]: They've only played against, right?
31:13.754 --> 31:14.816
[SPEAKER_01]: Anders all year.
31:14.836 --> 31:16.518
[SPEAKER_01]: He bats laugh.
31:16.558 --> 31:18.141
[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably a strong cyclotune.
31:18.181 --> 31:20.284
[SPEAKER_01]: So we haven't seen whether he's going to hit against lefties.
31:20.304 --> 31:23.408
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's hit either first or third in the lineup all season.
31:24.991 --> 31:27.334
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a lineup with Kevin McGonagall.
31:27.770 --> 31:33.560
[SPEAKER_01]: Riley Greene, Carrie Carpenter, Labor Toras, like some pretty good guy, Spencer Torkelson, Dylan Dingler.
31:34.642 --> 31:39.149
[SPEAKER_01]: Why do I like cold Keith when I just said he has no homerends and a bad looking for eight?
31:39.590 --> 31:42.635
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, he's really increased his bat speed.
31:43.416 --> 31:45.820
[SPEAKER_01]: Just using that bat speed spreadsheet I was talking about.
31:45.861 --> 31:49.727
[SPEAKER_01]: He's increased his bat speed by 2.7 miles an hour.
31:49.707 --> 31:54.051
[SPEAKER_01]: his hard hit rate last year was 10%, it's 30% this year.
31:54.432 --> 31:57.655
[SPEAKER_01]: He's doubling his blasts per contact bus pursuing.
31:58.576 --> 32:04.082
[SPEAKER_01]: He's kind of added 11 basis points to his hit plus by Vasvi.
32:04.102 --> 32:06.004
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year he was like a 99 on my scale.
32:06.024 --> 32:08.526
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a 1-10 this year, which is like top 30.
32:09.247 --> 32:10.208
[SPEAKER_01]: And I regress that to you.
32:10.228 --> 32:11.449
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not just wrong numbers.
32:11.469 --> 32:13.691
[SPEAKER_01]: That's like regress it to the main base on the number of swings.
32:13.952 --> 32:17.335
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like
32:17.315 --> 32:18.898
[SPEAKER_01]: he's played third and first.
32:20.541 --> 32:31.741
[SPEAKER_01]: I think right now he's only maybe he's eligible for second as well I'm not sure what he's eligible at but he'll probably have first and third by midseason at least strong side platoon guy.
32:31.761 --> 32:35.588
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's capable of 20 to 25 homeruns.
32:35.628 --> 32:40.757
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's going to have good batting average to 60 plus maybe even up to 270
32:40.737 --> 32:43.721
[SPEAKER_01]: If he's sitting at the top of the order, he's going to have a lot of runs.
32:45.283 --> 32:48.748
[SPEAKER_01]: In dynasty, he's not the greatest defensively.
32:48.768 --> 32:49.689
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be a corner guy.
32:49.709 --> 32:52.093
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably stuck at first, eventually, your DH.
32:52.934 --> 32:54.116
[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't really steal bases.
32:54.136 --> 32:55.057
[SPEAKER_01]: So keep that in mind.
32:55.097 --> 32:56.038
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a platoon.
32:56.579 --> 33:04.410
[SPEAKER_01]: But this is a guy that Matt Walner is a platoon bat who puts up a lot of skills.
33:04.430 --> 33:10.238
[SPEAKER_01]: Josh Low is a platoon bat who also does well for you.
33:10.218 --> 33:11.619
[SPEAKER_01]: on your team.
33:12.620 --> 33:22.170
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, Colky, it'll probably be like a corner guy for you in Dynasty, but, you know, he's still pretty young, and I really like that he's added the kind of underlying that speed and all that this year.
33:22.210 --> 33:29.678
[SPEAKER_01]: So, Colky's a guy, I'm having kind of like a deep sleeper where he's not really blowing up right now, but I could see him being very useful.
33:32.040 --> 33:36.985
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, I agree, and I think he's probably still
33:37.960 --> 33:49.319
[SPEAKER_00]: Fairly cheap, just because of the questions around how that whole team fits together, and who gets regular playing time, etc.
33:50.461 --> 33:52.063
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I think that's where the interesting.
33:52.544 --> 33:58.374
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to finish it off here with actually a teammate of the first guy that I talked about one Valera.
33:58.935 --> 34:00.538
[SPEAKER_00]: They're both on the Greenville Drive.
34:00.558 --> 34:03.242
[SPEAKER_00]: That's Justin Gonzalez that talked about him.
34:03.222 --> 34:06.250
[SPEAKER_00]: throughout the offseason throughout spring training.
34:07.232 --> 34:11.904
[SPEAKER_00]: Six foot five, very athletic for his size and build.
34:12.405 --> 34:13.849
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a ton of power here.
34:13.889 --> 34:18.902
[SPEAKER_00]: He's more hit a ball tonight that he hit 1-10.
34:18.882 --> 34:25.608
[SPEAKER_00]: on a line drive to the pull side for a double, had a couple of home runs over the first series.
34:26.229 --> 34:29.992
[SPEAKER_00]: He's showing in-game power more consistently.
34:30.012 --> 34:33.715
[SPEAKER_00]: There are bat-to-ball skills in approach here as well.
34:33.755 --> 34:37.919
[SPEAKER_00]: We kind of saw that as an 18-year-old and full season level last year.
34:37.959 --> 34:40.942
[SPEAKER_00]: It's down 19 and doing the same thing.
34:40.982 --> 34:42.363
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be 19 all year.
34:42.423 --> 34:47.708
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is one of the younger prodigious hitters in the game
34:47.688 --> 34:50.691
[SPEAKER_00]: I just honestly want to have on all my roster.
34:50.771 --> 34:57.158
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm going to preach a little bit more on my sermon of Justin González.
34:57.178 --> 35:00.982
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that he's somebody that in Dinosdilly.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You should still be targeting him.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Have a leak because I don't think we've seen the ceiling.
35:05.646 --> 35:08.649
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that the value has peaked yet.
35:08.749 --> 35:11.092
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's probably going to come slowly over the next year.
35:11.332 --> 35:17.138
[SPEAKER_00]: So go on and get him now while you still can because this looks like he could be a true 30 home run bat.
35:17.118 --> 35:21.387
[SPEAKER_00]: simply because of the type of power that he pairs with really good plate skills.
35:21.407 --> 35:24.894
[SPEAKER_00]: He can get to the power, just a matter of tweaking the angles a little bit.
35:24.914 --> 35:26.237
[SPEAKER_00]: He seems like he's done that.
35:26.397 --> 35:29.664
[SPEAKER_00]: So pretty excited about Justin Gonzalez.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Dylan, anything you wanted to add on Justin Gonzalez?
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[SPEAKER_00]: Overall on the show before you wrap up.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, no, I mean, I love Justin Gonzalez in Devil's rejects Brian picked him up, you know, he was getting all that buzz and you were writing articles, he was writing articles, we're getting all these reports and Boston camp was like talking about it is a monster he's so huge et cetera.
35:52.522 --> 35:58.174
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's quieted down all that the hype, but like you said, he's he's about to explode.
35:59.277 --> 36:06.793
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, I just pulled it up on the average of 15 plate appearances at HiA, he's in the top eight.
36:07.515 --> 36:11.644
[SPEAKER_01]: Luis Payne number one, Ryan Yelvrodriga is number three, some names you may know.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Nathan flew well in number four and Justin Gonzalez right up there.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you're right.
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[SPEAKER_01]: This is the sweet spot to get them where the hype from like last week two weeks ago is kind of quieted and then before the hype of him actually producing when it's not denied but once we see the the exit velocities and the stack asses out and all that week in that he'll be a top 100 prospect possibly.
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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think now he is the sweet spot to trade for.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think you are 100% right.
36:38.695 --> 36:42.660
[SPEAKER_00]: I like what you're like, what you're laying down here, Dylan.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I also want to thank you for joining me today.
36:44.943 --> 36:47.105
[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody out there for listening and tuning in.
36:47.145 --> 36:58.179
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, for supporting baseball, America, podcast, written content, subscriptions, books, all that sort of thing, we've got a whole lot of stuff coming for you over the next week.
36:58.199 --> 36:59.721
[SPEAKER_00]: And we again, so,
36:59.701 --> 37:05.690
[SPEAKER_00]: Make sure to stay tuned and by the way, we've updated the Baseball America app, it actually functions correctly now.
37:06.050 --> 37:15.644
[SPEAKER_00]: You can get that stuff with push notifications from the feed, kind of scroll down and through all the articles as they've come out and sort of chronological order.
37:15.764 --> 37:18.929
[SPEAKER_00]: So check that out and download it if you don't already have it.
37:18.989 --> 37:20.751
[SPEAKER_00]: It's definitely a useful tool.
37:20.932 --> 37:24.036
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are a subscriber trying to stay up to date on content.
37:24.577 --> 37:28.763
[SPEAKER_00]: For Jeff Ford Dylan, this has been the Baseball
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