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[SPEAKER_04]: Hey everybody, JJ Cooper, Ian Cundall, and soon to join us Jeff Ponce on the baseball America Prospect podcast.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We are excited to join today and talk all about kind of things that have been going on this April.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We're going to talk about Franklin Eres.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We're going to talk about Sephirane as Kate Anderson, Anthony Iinson, and then a little bit also about maybe a new little trend happening in the major leagues.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Jeff will be joining us.

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[SPEAKER_04]: He's actually recording another podcast, but we're stacked up like we're at a hair and it's a stormy

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[SPEAKER_04]: Six o'clock evening and we're gonna slot them in as we can because we're gonna record the hot sheet shows soon So we got to get this rolling so Ian the most importantly I wanted to kind of start with you anyway here great to have you on the prospect pod, but most importantly We love when we have people bouncing around and seeing things that are outside of their normal, you know Geographical area and You've been checking out the county

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's first time ever out here watching baseball has been out here multiple times before, but it's been a very funny experience because it is so different than what I'm used to.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, in the Northeast, I'm mostly exposed to double and triple A.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'll venture down south.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You go see some high A and low A occasionally, but the county is a different than double A. Yeah, yes, I would say so.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I had a nice, uh,

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[SPEAKER_01]: It was generous official score, but we could have had a probably about a 14-air game, a couple nights ago, which was something.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, it's been really, it's been a really fun series so far going to get another one another week, but I got the Dodgers and the Giants, low-A affiliates in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I got to say, town on display in those games.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the Giants have top 100 prospects, Johnny Level, by the way, learned that little.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Johnny Level, who had probably the moment of the series when he leaves off the game and gets Blake Snell rehabbing, because the daughters were in town playing the Giants, so they sent Snell down to rehab.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he goes up there and what does he do?

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[SPEAKER_01]: You think maybe takes a pitch, it's an MLB pitcher, you know, kind of get a feel for it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: No, no, no.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You throw 95 mile per hour fastball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm hacking right away, line drive single, just

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[SPEAKER_01]: Really nice swing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to talk more about level probably last next week, but I've been really impressed with what I've seen for him at the plate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then the Dodgers team, this team is, I don't know how they do it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is a team that has very limited restrictions in the draft.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But time and time again, they got to just find these guys.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you look up and down there line up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's, you know, there's some big international signings in Mielmorealis, Joanne Dree Vargas, and Chang Shen Cope.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then you also have Chase Harlin, Jair and Elkins, some other draft guys.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They got arms left and right, just throwing 97, Dylan Smith.

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[SPEAKER_01]: who was, I guess, he was a third round pick a couple years ago.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So he unsucked Zhang, another big international signing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, there was a ton of talent on display.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's been a really fun look just a very different brand of baseball than I've been watching so far this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it's been a lot of fun.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So you've been seeing that.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But we're also now.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We're starting to edge.

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[SPEAKER_04]: into that wonderful time where we stop using what we've been doing on the prospect pod every week.

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[SPEAKER_04]: I feel like it's like it's too soon.

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[SPEAKER_04]: It's too soon.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We don't want to overreact it's too soon.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We're now into, okay, we have a top hundred update.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We will roll out next Wednesday as we record this.

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[SPEAKER_04]: You see this, like, I mean by that, what date is that?

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[SPEAKER_04]: It's gonna be May, May 4th, I think, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: May 6th, 6th.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So.

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[SPEAKER_04]: That will be the new, like, that's the Wednesday.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So, May 6th, I believe it is, and go home to that.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We make, but believe it's May 6th, that we'll run an updated top on it.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And we do mean an actual update, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: We did one of the end of spring training, but we were really trying to be careful.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We don't want to overreact.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Well, now it's time to react.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And one of the things, the first thing that we're going to jump into this is, is I'll ask you, Ian.

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[SPEAKER_04]: is Franklin area is the Red Sox shore stop is he making the leap and I say that let's profit by saying you I understand if you're listening to this if you're watching a single and what do you mean making the leap he made the leap last year he was excellent last year he's firmly not just firmly but he's very you know he's well up on the top hundred right now but what I mean is

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[SPEAKER_04]: Now, it feels like that areas might be moving into that range of, hey, he's actually now in that utter elite group of the top prospects in the minor leagues.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Is that are we overreacting right now by saying that?

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[SPEAKER_04]: Or is that now look more possible than it did two months ago?

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[SPEAKER_01]: No, I think we're reacting exactly how we should be, because RIS has done, and coming to the season, I think RIS has been kind of a polarizing prospect, because on the one hand, he does some things very well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's a very good defender.

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[SPEAKER_01]: His bout to ball skills are really strong.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But on the other hand, he just, the power is never really shown up in game, and pretty aggressive at the play has a tendency to chase.

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[SPEAKER_01]: and just kind of get himself out by swinging a pitch as early in counts and he also is a below average runner, which is just weird given.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's a good athlete, he's got good instincts in the field, but she's just was a very unique profile.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And R.S.

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[SPEAKER_01]: this off season and hit him in the Red Sox player-desk staff just every ton of credit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He gained 10 pounds, around 10, 15 pounds of muscle and he's out of over, I think, around two miles an hour of fast speed and the result is

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[SPEAKER_01]: He is currently in, I think it's still the case, leading the Eastern League in the triple.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, nope, he is, he was passed by Sean Kees, but he is third in the league in home runs with seven for reference his career high in home runs is eight.

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[SPEAKER_01]: career.

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[SPEAKER_04]: I'm going to get that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

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[SPEAKER_04]: He is leading the league and hitting at 407 or excuse me, second in the league and hitting at 407 and he is second in the league, excuse me, fourth in the league and on base, 476 and first in slugging at 870 and first in OPS 1346 and also like he is third in total bases just a and by the way younger than everyone else we're talking about here also.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the thing that's really impressed with ours is when you when you dig into the underlying data, is it, it just really backs up what he's doing his EVs are up considerably his average EV has jumped around 95 miles an hour now before is there at 88 and his doing this well he's caught his chase rate he's making better swing decisions and I think that's kind of the secret here is that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously he's transformed to swing, he's out of bat speed, he's got stronger, but he's just swing it better pitches.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He used to just he because his back control was so good, he could swing at a pitch six inches off the plate and make contact with it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Except, you're not going to do any damage against that pitch.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now that he's being more selective and waiting for pitches, he can actually drive.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's allowing him to tap into that bat speed, that additional power, and now, you know, it's translating to higher EVs as well.

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[SPEAKER_04]: you've got the two parts of it there, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: Which is, if you're making better swing decisions, hitting better pitches and doing that while you actually have the ability to do more damage when you do, hard to have a better combo plaque than that, like that's signed me up for that, which is, because again, as you said, and we're talking about here a guy doing this who also is an honest, goodness, short stop,

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[SPEAKER_04]: So you know, defender like this is a guy who's going to provide defensive impact and now offensive impact as well.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Look, I will say, you know, feel like we also need to acknowledge the elephant in the room, which is it's like, not a great week for the red socks, you know, even with this.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We're not like doing this to be like, hey, great week for the red socks, Franklin Arias is making a step forward.

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[SPEAKER_04]: It's like,

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[SPEAKER_04]: This is like, you know, there's a, you know, there's this, you know, raging a forest fire going on at the Big League level, and there's this, you know, there's a good news happening here at the minor league levels, well, but it is something again, we're, we're a prospect podcast, this is one of the guys we've written about him already this year, you've written about him that this is a guy who is seemingly taking a step forward.

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[SPEAKER_04]: The thing about this also, this is, we are early, we want to see a maintain this, but it feels like that these, the attributes we're talking about, these skills, because these are more skilled, but that speeds a tool.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Plight disciplines a skill.

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[SPEAKER_04]: The tools and the skills that

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[SPEAKER_04]: Often can be pretty sticky, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: Bad speed improvements.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Bad speed improvements by themselves.

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[SPEAKER_04]: They can be a little bit of a false pause to sometimes, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: Because if you improve your bad speed, but you do so in a way that

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[SPEAKER_04]: You've changed your swing in a way that basically has made you like, okay, you're just trying to get your ace swing off every time you're up there no matter what the count no matter what the situation.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Well, okay, great.

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[SPEAKER_04]: You're swinging the bow harder when you miss, but when you combine that you're swinging the bow harder, you're hitting the ball harder and you're actually swinging at better pitches.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Well, then you've kind of got the symbiotic relationship going here.

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[SPEAKER_04]: This feels like that's why I kind of phrased as is making the lead.

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[SPEAKER_04]: All of a sudden, there aren't a whole lot of more intriguing prospects, position prospects in the miners I would say.

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[SPEAKER_01]: No, I agree.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's two and I left the part out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The angles are way better to this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: His launch angle is increased dramatically.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's barreling the ball of the highest rate of his career.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's got kind of the three pillars of hitting all together and he's improved all of them in one season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, and I had a really good question actually in the Hachi Chai yesterday was who is a player that you think is making the biggest jump on the top 100?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think there's different levels of jump.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A guy jumping from 100 to 50 is not as impressive to me as someone who jumps from.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 45 to 20 or something like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 100% the numbering is obviously it's higher for the first one, but in terms of overall impact in making the jump I think the second one is more impactful and I think that's what we're seeing with our is you know This is guy that we currently have just inside the top 50, but he's 46 right now and when we on top this 20

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, probably like because it's the and this is the biggest thing with him is he's the high floor with the defense that that that that's kind of the known entity with him that's been What it been it all the way up through the miners that's been the case with him now he's added the offensive impact and you know you're going from a guy who maybe you're looking at it above average plus defender who is you know to 75 hitter you know plus hitter to 280 and a to 10 home runs and now we're talking about you know

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[SPEAKER_01]: the EVs are more like 15 to 20 home runs.

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[SPEAKER_01]: With that defense, that's a, you know, that's a fringe all star right there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I think the ceiling has been raised with him too, and and that's why he's moved up that tier.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think when we do the regraids, he's going to jump from that his adjusted grade is going to jump into a higher tier because of that, because the ceiling is just changed with it and based on the changes he's made at the play.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So, that's to me kind of one of the things that we're looking for is this is the guys who again, we're not just looking for, oh, who's had a hot start, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: There are guys who've had a hot start, so you're like, nothing's really changed there.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Great.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And there's guys, the flip side of that, there's guys who are off to terrible start, so you look at it, you say, okay,

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[SPEAKER_04]: underlying numbers, underlying metrics here, this probably isn't anything more than, you know, guys not having a great start to the season.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And again, there's also the other components that sometimes we hear about sometimes we don't, like, a guy's got a finger injury that we don't know about.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And actually, he's not swinging the bat like he normally can, or there's a variety of things going on.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But when you see something like we've seen with Ari so far, we do want to highlight that we do want to bring that to attention.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But speaking of that, when we come back from this break, we're going to dive into some pictures who we're going to ask her, they're going to be moving up pretty soon because these are some pitching prospects who so far the results are very, very good.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We'll be getting on talking about that right after this quick break.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Todd Father, it's getting a little warm out.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, let's hit some concerts, let's hit some baseball games.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And where am I going to go to find those tickets?

12:00.355 --> 12:01.937
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you want to sing the answer, you can't.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to see G-A-A.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Listen, ultimately, at the end of the day, it is getting warmer and people want to leave the house.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And it's time to leave, go see a ball game.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I guess where you can find the best tickets, best spots, best places to go.

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[SPEAKER_00]: See G-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A

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[SPEAKER_00]: and their green signs letting you know what's good and bad all that good kind of stuff they make it really simple for you at the end of the day for a guy like me who's running around i just need five minutes ping-bang boom i got my seat

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, each ticket's rated on a scale of 1 to 10, so you know you're getting a good deal.

12:33.110 --> 12:49.033
[SPEAKER_02]: And of course, the code for you, territory 1, 0 for 10% off your next set of tickets at Sekeek, that's 10% off any tickets with promo code, territory 10, make sure you click the link in the description to download the app and then have the code automatically added to your account so that you can use it later.

12:49.134 --> 12:52.358
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you to Sekeek, MLB's official ticket marketplace.

12:54.862 --> 12:56.284
[SPEAKER_04]: So Ian,

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[SPEAKER_04]: We if we said who's the pitcher who stands out as maybe he's just too good for the level that he's at the great thing about this is I just threw that out to you I think that there's three

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[SPEAKER_04]: elite pitching prospects.

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[SPEAKER_04]: One of whom is on the top under, but we'll be, I think when we update next week, but three pitchers who you could kind of say choose which one you want, but let's just be honest, at the start of the day, at the end of the day, the pitcher who I think jumps out to us the most as far as he's just toying with the bat, the level he's at is the pirate

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[SPEAKER_04]: I have a piece that went up today at Baseball America about, or sorry, yesterday when you were, see this, check it out, baseball market.com about how, if you look at Cephanand as a start.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And again, there's always arbitrary endpoints on this, but I didn't try to slice it at exactly what Cephanand as is done.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But I said, okay, pro debut, full season ball,

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[SPEAKER_04]: fewer than five hits, 15 innings, and I think it was 25 strikeouts and one or fewer runs.

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[SPEAKER_04]: There's been three guys who've done that.

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[SPEAKER_04]: in since 2007.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We've got Max Scherzer.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We've got Dylan Bundy who if you weren't around at the time, everyone, what Dylan Bundy started at, like I know, you know, he can look at his career in the big leagues and go, oh, what could have been in all that.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But Dylan Bundy didn't give up a hit until his, I think, fifth start of his pro career.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And now we have Saffron Andes.

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[SPEAKER_04]: When you watch Saffron Andes, what comes to mind, what stands out to you?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I, if I think the max Clark GIF from Spring Training, so it comes to mind because it's insane the stuff he has.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the thing that really stands out to me is his physicality.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is a guy who's in high school last year and just doesn't look that like that at all.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you told me he was a college junior, you know, I would believe that because he's just, he's not built like a high schooler.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I get his whole day for his grade, you know, he's 19, he turns 20 in June.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's that, and then it's the polish he has with his secondary pitches.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He throws 100 and 2, but that's not his best attribute.

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[SPEAKER_01]: His best attribute is his secondary pitches, and his ability to miss bats with them is just unparalleled right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, one of the crazy stats that we were digging into before the show is that he has not given up a hit this year to six spots in the batting order.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The only people have a hit against him are the one, two, and four hitters.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not just that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: JJ, what we watched, the hits.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Only two of them are real hits.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Two of them are ground balls, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: Four hits in four stars.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Four hits.

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[SPEAKER_04]: One of them is a ground ball over the third base bag.

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[SPEAKER_04]: The third baseman comes in.

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[SPEAKER_04]: I'm not saying it had been an easy play, but the third baseman just whiffs.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Like the ball goes under his glove, rolls into short,

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[SPEAKER_04]: you know, left field and ends up being a single and an error to get a second, right?

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[SPEAKER_04]: Okay.

15:57.734 --> 15:58.636
[SPEAKER_04]: That's not really hit.

15:58.916 --> 16:09.719
[SPEAKER_04]: There's another where a rather large and hooking first space bin hit a say ground ball that the short stop fields and can't get it out of his glove.

16:10.059 --> 16:12.304
[SPEAKER_04]: And so again, it was

16:12.385 --> 16:14.207
[SPEAKER_04]: Of course, stop just going to his left pretty far.

16:14.688 --> 16:15.890
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, it's an easy play.

16:15.950 --> 16:16.731
[SPEAKER_04]: They rule it a hit.

16:16.751 --> 16:18.834
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, like, okay, that could be a hit.

16:18.974 --> 16:22.519
[SPEAKER_04]: But at the same time, it was an infield could have been an out.

16:22.559 --> 16:25.002
[SPEAKER_04]: Then there was a triple that hit the warning track.

16:25.403 --> 16:26.544
[SPEAKER_04]: First battery faced all year.

16:26.965 --> 16:27.465
[SPEAKER_04]: Blaine Bullard.

16:27.946 --> 16:29.008
[SPEAKER_04]: That's one of the legit triple.

16:29.048 --> 16:31.431
[SPEAKER_04]: And then there was a line drive in front of the center fielder.

16:31.771 --> 16:34.495
[SPEAKER_04]: Again, a second ball that was an actual hit.

16:34.475 --> 16:35.157
[SPEAKER_04]: But that's it.

16:35.498 --> 16:46.527
[SPEAKER_04]: We have four starts for Cephanandas and those are the four hits and you could really say two of them, the thing that stands out to me as well on this is when you watch.

16:47.097 --> 16:50.863
[SPEAKER_04]: hitters just are not pulling his fastball.

16:50.883 --> 16:52.105
[SPEAKER_04]: They are making contact.

16:52.145 --> 16:56.553
[SPEAKER_04]: It is not a swinging under it over and over kind of pitch.

16:57.154 --> 17:03.364
[SPEAKER_04]: But it still is the foundation of everything he does because it's 98, 99, he's touched 100.

17:03.384 --> 17:06.029
[SPEAKER_04]: And they can't get around on it.

17:06.389 --> 17:08.052
[SPEAKER_04]: It was just makes everything else play better.

17:08.072 --> 17:08.633
[SPEAKER_04]: Don't it?

17:08.613 --> 17:10.776
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, it allows everything to play up.

17:10.796 --> 17:12.319
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, you look, you're talking about the WIFRAID.

17:12.339 --> 17:13.981
[SPEAKER_01]: It's WIFRAID on fastball is just over 20%.

17:14.923 --> 17:17.547
[SPEAKER_01]: On all of his secondary pitches, the lowest one is 65%.

17:17.767 --> 17:22.935
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, yeah, I mean, they just can't touch his secondary because they have to gear up first fastball.

17:22.975 --> 17:27.702
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's what makes him such a unique case is that even though,

17:27.682 --> 17:32.689
[SPEAKER_01]: he's a high school guy and we don't usually advocate for high school guys to be promoted this quickly.

17:32.710 --> 17:43.946
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not really being challenged right now because he can just go in there and he knows that hey all you know all throw some fastballs, locate them occasionally and then I'm just going to be guys are going to be so geared up for it.

17:43.966 --> 17:54.482
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll just throw a curveball or change up and they have no chance of touching it and that's something I don't think is going to prove especially as we start you know start getting the hitter promotions

17:54.462 --> 18:00.914
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, I think that it's kind of crazy to think about it, but as a high school or he's probably too advanced for low-way already.

18:01.615 --> 18:03.158
[SPEAKER_04]: And that's not a shock to receive.

18:03.259 --> 18:05.483
[SPEAKER_04]: We promised that Jeff was joining us and here Jeff is.

18:05.783 --> 18:10.412
[SPEAKER_04]: And so, I'll loop you because we were talking about basically like,

18:11.033 --> 18:13.235
[SPEAKER_04]: Again, I don't want to make it sound like it's crazy.

18:13.275 --> 18:14.536
[SPEAKER_04]: The pirates haven't promoted him.

18:14.937 --> 18:19.861
[SPEAKER_04]: Having a player spend a month, you know, like Dylan Bundy did this.

18:19.961 --> 18:22.464
[SPEAKER_04]: And then they, I think they were like seven starts.

18:22.484 --> 18:23.885
[SPEAKER_04]: And then they moved, we've done up.

18:24.345 --> 18:28.029
[SPEAKER_04]: But with Seth Fernandes, you've watched it as well.

18:28.289 --> 18:38.779
[SPEAKER_04]: I just feel like that we are already hitting the point of diminishing returns about whether Seth Fernandes is really, there's much more that he can learn in the Florida State League of Fernandes.

18:39.012 --> 18:52.250
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, we've seen Riley quick get promoted out of that league as a college pitcher and Hernandez against the same competition has put up even better numbers.

18:53.111 --> 18:56.856
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it's a 51.7% K rate.

18:56.876 --> 19:00.421
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a 51.9% with rate.

19:01.101 --> 19:03.805
[SPEAKER_03]: He just misses tons of bats.

19:03.987 --> 19:06.430
[SPEAKER_03]: the arsenal itself is really impressive.

19:06.631 --> 19:07.892
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think still projectable.

19:08.153 --> 19:18.808
[SPEAKER_03]: Like we talked about that I think this last week or the week before, there still places that this fastball can kind of go in terms of getting more of a defined foreseem.

19:19.288 --> 19:31.125
[SPEAKER_04]: And then maybe a sinker shape mixed in there is, oh well, I can't wait till the sinker becomes part of this because it just is so, and I'm not fault again.

19:31.105 --> 19:31.987
[SPEAKER_04]: steps.

19:33.028 --> 19:36.134
[SPEAKER_04]: You don't have to throw the whole kitchen sink at a one time.

19:36.634 --> 19:47.032
[SPEAKER_04]: But when you watch it, it's like when he starts adding that in and probably eventually whether it's a gyro or it's a cutter or whatever and he has kind of that that fastball triangle going on.

19:47.573 --> 19:48.194
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.

19:48.214 --> 19:48.675
[SPEAKER_04]: Watch out.

19:49.735 --> 19:59.446
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, a hundred percent and, you know, he had, he could, I think he definitely could probably throw a cotter, I mean, we'll see what he adds to his repertoire here.

19:59.506 --> 20:06.694
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, but he throws a gyroslider at 88, 89, 90 pounds an hour already.

20:07.274 --> 20:17.245
[SPEAKER_03]: The power on his arsenal, uh, and there's feel for spin, like, he throws his slider that hard and has sort of like tighter spin on it.

20:18.102 --> 20:22.881
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a high spin rate too, like there's places for him to go like he has the ability.

20:23.232 --> 20:26.016
[SPEAKER_03]: to pronate and supinate pretty well.

20:27.038 --> 20:32.205
[SPEAKER_03]: He kind of spins everything like it's more of a supination dominant profile.

20:32.586 --> 20:34.849
[SPEAKER_03]: But he just get behind the ball and write it pretty well.

20:35.911 --> 20:44.584
[SPEAKER_03]: There's probably more of like a true cut forcing fastball shape here where he probably doesn't give up much velocity to do that either.

20:44.964 --> 20:47.408
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just a really interesting mix.

20:47.428 --> 20:49.611
[SPEAKER_03]: And he's a great athlete on top of it.

20:49.591 --> 20:55.937
[SPEAKER_03]: he moves really well in the mound, you know, he gets down the mound well in addition to all that.

20:56.097 --> 21:09.889
[SPEAKER_03]: So he just has like all of these traits and characteristics that I think you can look at him and really kind of project long term that this is going to go good and you know, it's going to be potentially a front line starter.

21:10.109 --> 21:19.598
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's always hard to project pitching prospects to

21:19.578 --> 21:22.949
[SPEAKER_03]: The sky is the limit in terms of what the upside is.

21:23.010 --> 21:24.019
[SPEAKER_03]: This could be a number one.

21:24.286 --> 21:42.042
[SPEAKER_04]: I'll go a step further, like yes, we're not saying he will be a number one, but if you can't, but if there are guys who are going to the con number ones, not all number guys who project could be a number one, the con number ones, but it's hard to think of a whole lot of guys, like okay, this is a good transition for this, right?

21:42.423 --> 21:43.884
[SPEAKER_04]: Kate Anderson, been great at double.

21:43.904 --> 21:49.609
[SPEAKER_04]: Like Kate Anderson, absolutely like when we talk about guys who might need to move up, might need to move up triplet.

21:50.610 --> 21:52.572
[SPEAKER_04]: But if you ask me right now,

21:52.720 --> 21:56.268
[SPEAKER_04]: could Kate Anderson be a one versus could Seth Hernandez be a number one.

21:57.410 --> 22:03.483
[SPEAKER_04]: It's not a, it's not a question my mind right now because the quality of the stuff is just at a different level.

22:03.784 --> 22:09.396
[SPEAKER_04]: But Ian, when we look at Kate Anderson, the Mariners lefty, their first drum pick in last year's draft.

22:11.030 --> 22:14.175
[SPEAKER_04]: when you see him, like, is he kind of running out of things?

22:14.977 --> 22:19.344
[SPEAKER_04]: Texas League is not a conservative assignment to send a guy out.

22:19.364 --> 22:25.254
[SPEAKER_04]: That's like a, whoa, he's already in double A basically for the start of his first full pro year.

22:26.055 --> 22:31.765
[SPEAKER_04]: And again, he may, it may be, I would say with him there's a little bit more likelihood that maybe he is gonna hit a little bit of a bump.

22:31.785 --> 22:36.092
[SPEAKER_04]: Texas League can be a more difficult place, but what have you seen so far with Kate?

22:36.612 --> 23:02.367
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the thing that's really stood out is this control and that was something we highlighted in the Mariners or report or the offseason handbook was he was best control in the system and he had never played in the system and what's he gone out and done in the Texas league is four walks so far in 18 and two thirds innings, 30 strikeouts, he's only given up nine hits and yeah, I think it's just he's such a polished pitcher and you know, LSU obviously is a very strong track record as we've seen with their their a starters have had

23:02.347 --> 23:20.929
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a pretty good, you know, Paul Scains got his pretty good, and yeah, I mean, I don't think Anderson at this point has the same upside that someone like skins obviously doesn't very few do, maybe the guy we talked about before does, but that might be the only one in the minors, but Anderson, it's just the polish really stands out has complete command of his arsenal he can hit his spots and

23:20.909 --> 23:34.075
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's not an overwhelming fastball, but he's able to make it work and then he's just got, you know, the curve ball the slider a couple different shapes of second areas that have been enough to as you said, Texas league is not not the easiest place to pitch and he's had no issues with it so far.

23:35.405 --> 23:40.051
[SPEAKER_04]: Jeff, I want to kind of ask to say question like we talk about LSU is a great place, you know, just far as developing pictures.

23:40.612 --> 23:46.540
[SPEAKER_04]: Anthony Ionson couldn't be their Friday starter last year, because of this this guy named Kate Anderson.

23:46.940 --> 23:56.493
[SPEAKER_03]: But, and I'll bridge the two drafts and say, you forgot Gage Jump was another guy that took a huge step last year and really kind of came into his own at LSU after being at UCLA.

23:56.513 --> 23:58.155
[SPEAKER_03]: So there's a few.

23:58.135 --> 24:00.320
[SPEAKER_04]: But I and Sin also.

24:00.360 --> 24:02.084
[SPEAKER_04]: So we've kind of got this slotted.

24:02.104 --> 24:08.398
[SPEAKER_04]: So we started with the high school pictures at low-wave or like, you know, I just don't know if low-ways enough of the challenge for them.

24:08.679 --> 24:11.866
[SPEAKER_04]: And then crazy enough, we've got the college picture who goes straight to double-a.

24:12.167 --> 24:17.258
[SPEAKER_04]: And you're like, you know, I don't know if double-a is much of a challenge for him, which by the way is kind of something like,

24:17.238 --> 24:25.398
[SPEAKER_04]: Shades of again, he's not that level of pitching prospect, but Shades of Paul Scheme who every outing he had in the minor leagues, it's like what is he doing here?

24:26.281 --> 24:32.817
[SPEAKER_04]: Anthony Ion Sidmer kind of split in the middle here, but is he looking like he might be ready for double A before long?

24:34.872 --> 24:35.593
[SPEAKER_03]: I hope so.

24:35.974 --> 24:37.636
[SPEAKER_03]: I think, you know, I both hope so.

24:37.897 --> 24:48.352
[SPEAKER_03]: Of course, you're on the west coast now, like for, but, like, yeah, please, please, please, please bring him, please bring him to Portland now that it's going to warm up.

24:48.773 --> 24:50.495
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that maybe is part of it, right?

24:50.575 --> 24:59.749
[SPEAKER_03]: Like it is starting to become spring out here and another week or two, you know, you'll get reasonable temperatures every day up there in Portland.

24:59.729 --> 25:14.937
[SPEAKER_03]: There's no reason to rush these guys into cold environments in the early portion of this season, especially with sort of the enviable pitching depth, the red socks have kind of built over this last stretchy years and that in that farm system.

25:15.608 --> 25:26.163
[SPEAKER_03]: So, I mean, there's no reason to push them up just yet, but I wouldn't be shocked if three weeks from now, or maybe even two weeks from now, we're talking about a potential promotion up to Portland.

25:26.183 --> 25:31.711
[SPEAKER_03]: He probably gets maybe another two starts there, gets above 20 innings.

25:31.731 --> 25:34.175
[SPEAKER_03]: He's only at 16.2 so far this year.

25:34.235 --> 25:40.384
[SPEAKER_03]: But it's been one of the more dominant stretches we've seen just from a,

25:40.364 --> 25:41.486
[SPEAKER_03]: K to B.B.

25:41.506 --> 25:45.311
[SPEAKER_03]: sort of perspective to open a professional career JJ.

25:45.752 --> 25:48.256
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, this is kind of entering Georgia.

25:48.276 --> 25:49.237
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a no B.B.

25:49.257 --> 25:50.258
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, no one.

25:50.278 --> 25:51.320
[SPEAKER_03]: He hasn't had a, that's what I was going guys.

25:51.340 --> 25:53.263
[SPEAKER_03]: I was just saying that your research was setting you up.

25:53.283 --> 26:02.997
[SPEAKER_03]: You, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you,

26:03.179 --> 26:10.891
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, over four appearances now or four starts, you know, he's struck out 27, he hasn't walked a battery.

26:10.911 --> 26:12.333
[SPEAKER_03]: He doesn't have one hit by pitch.

26:13.435 --> 26:24.472
[SPEAKER_03]: But you don't usually see guys come in and throw that many strikes, miss that many bats and not give up hard contacts consistently.

26:25.754 --> 26:27.617
[SPEAKER_03]: So it was really pretty impressive.

26:29.437 --> 26:45.960
[SPEAKER_04]: the thing that stands out with that is it's like we're also like you know you both know now I don't know Jeff really knows and Ian you're kind of getting to where you know that I love strike percentage I think that strike percentage is kind of underappreciated as far as the stat because

26:46.649 --> 26:52.617
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, like there are guys who walk rates go up, but then you see their strike percentage.

26:53.278 --> 27:03.673
[SPEAKER_04]: If you're throwing strike 66, 67% of the time, I'm not really like, then walks are kind of an approach thing more than they are, anything else, or they're a sequencing.

27:03.793 --> 27:04.915
[SPEAKER_04]: That's the only thing you can be.

27:05.215 --> 27:09.301
[SPEAKER_04]: Maybe it's something where you cannot finish and it's like you have a bazillion foul balls.

27:09.341 --> 27:10.763
[SPEAKER_04]: So it has to be something underlying.

27:11.064 --> 27:16.251
[SPEAKER_04]: If you're throwing, if you're not walking batters,

27:16.231 --> 27:17.213
[SPEAKER_04]: You don't have control.

27:17.333 --> 27:23.948
[SPEAKER_04]: You still, you might be getting some chases, you might be getting, you know, like we contact whatever it is.

27:24.409 --> 27:28.638
[SPEAKER_04]: But there's an underlying issue there that's going to eventually arise as you climb the ladder in the miners.

27:29.079 --> 27:35.353
[SPEAKER_04]: These are guys who we're talking about, like in in K to Anderson's case, it's 69% strike percentage, which really is.

27:36.262 --> 27:53.009
[SPEAKER_04]: That's almost at a level that's not sustainable in the long run, like you have to eventually as you climb the ladder, be a little bit less in the zone because at some point, but when you're at these numbers that we're talking about all three of these guys, it really does jump out and I did want to just kind of call up a camp.

27:53.029 --> 27:58.658
[SPEAKER_04]: So yes, Anthony Ionson, one thing he really hasn't had to work on yet is his

27:58.638 --> 28:20.899
[SPEAKER_04]: pitch selection in three ball counts because so far in four starts he's had two three one counts and he's had three three two counts and if you say well what does he throw on three oh you don't have that on the scouting report yet why he hasn't had a three oh pitch yet in four starts like now at the same time he's had 10 oh two counts so

28:20.879 --> 28:46.431
[SPEAKER_04]: Just to sit, thank you, Synergy Sports as always, just to give you an idea, that's where we're saying that these guys as it warms up, maybe it's time to maybe be looking at another level, but we're going to do it quick here because we're going to roll around to our next show before long, but before we do that, we're going to take one more break and when we get back, we're going to ask, are we in a new age of the rookie lefty starter, right after this quick break?

28:48.638 --> 29:01.095
[SPEAKER_04]: So we're back and I will just note I got to change the set up there again because I don't want to be covering up Ian's face there but on the YouTube view but

29:01.295 --> 29:05.282
[SPEAKER_04]: We look right now, Peyton Toley as we are recording this, we'll be making the start tonight.

29:06.104 --> 29:09.309
[SPEAKER_04]: But we've also seen Connally Early makes six effective starts.

29:09.790 --> 29:15.741
[SPEAKER_04]: We've seen Parker Messick carry a perfect game late into a game and has been excellent for six starts.

29:16.141 --> 29:19.928
[SPEAKER_04]: We've seen though, a shults come up and be very solid so far.

29:19.908 --> 29:40.802
[SPEAKER_04]: Connor prelet just kind of just you know is up and was in fact a very effective last night and then we throw in you know foster griffins a little bit of a different story that there's another lefty rookie yeah we should note as well Ian what is it are we seeing about lefty starters at the big league level right now is this a flu because this a trend is there something here?

29:41.153 --> 29:49.425
[SPEAKER_01]: It's interesting, and I think Messick is one of the most interesting cases, because he's actually second in baseball, a tie for second in baseball, a pitcher more, a B-war right now.

29:50.166 --> 29:53.952
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you look, he's not doing it with velocity.

29:54.012 --> 29:58.318
[SPEAKER_01]: He's in the 30th percentile for velocity averaging 93.3 on his fastball, but

29:58.298 --> 30:08.979
[SPEAKER_01]: He's just got polished secondaries and he throws a ton of strikes and that works and and maybe it's something to do with, you know, early in the season, it's, you know, pitcher, it's pitchers time right now.

30:09.039 --> 30:11.303
[SPEAKER_01]: It's easier when the cold weather for them to get out.

30:11.323 --> 30:17.455
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe there is some small sample size noise here, but it's just interesting when you think about all these lefties coming up and then.

30:18.160 --> 30:22.629
[SPEAKER_01]: the right is, you know, the guys we are expecting big things out of so far, no one will complain.

30:22.649 --> 30:27.919
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's been pretty good, but up and down, trade us averages, I believe making a debut tonight.

30:29.121 --> 30:33.790
[SPEAKER_01]: Boba Chandler has when he throws strikes he's good when he doesn't do that very often.

30:33.770 --> 30:50.378
[SPEAKER_01]: the righties have been a little more inconsistent and yeah these lefties are all just kind of carving along and same thing with because someone like pre-lipped it's the secondary stuff that released it out and frankly with Toli it's the same thing early and I think it's just the polish with the secondaries has allowed them to really succeed.

30:50.358 --> 31:01.635
[SPEAKER_01]: Because not all these guys, you know, shoulder, obviously, is a big fastball and totally does, but we're not talking about a bunch of, you know, guys sitting in the upper 90s from the last side here, you know, the velocity scale is a little different with lefties as a little lower.

31:01.675 --> 31:03.678
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they're able to get by with more polish.

31:03.698 --> 31:10.629
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think just, if you can command your pitches and your lefty with good shapes that you can be successful in the majors, at least right now we've seen that so far this year.

31:11.530 --> 31:14.695
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, if anything else come to mind to you as far as why we're seeing this,

31:14.776 --> 31:17.940
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think some of it is the dynamics of lineups.

31:18.801 --> 31:24.027
[SPEAKER_03]: We're seeing more left-handed hitters get at bats in the big leagues than ever before.

31:24.068 --> 31:27.231
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it was somewhere around 40% of plate appearances.

31:27.312 --> 31:28.413
[SPEAKER_03]: We're to left-handed hitters.

31:29.935 --> 31:31.897
[SPEAKER_03]: We're seeing more platoon guys, right?

31:32.618 --> 31:35.341
[SPEAKER_03]: Cause more often than not there on the strong side of the platoon.

31:35.862 --> 31:38.185
[SPEAKER_03]: I also think just generally,

31:39.599 --> 31:44.884
[SPEAKER_03]: there is a bias toward, you know, left handers with all things being equal.

31:45.657 --> 31:47.199
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a little more deception there.

31:47.499 --> 31:53.888
[SPEAKER_03]: We know that the velocity of a left hander when it is a little bit harder plays up almost like a mile per hour or more.

31:53.948 --> 32:01.018
[SPEAKER_03]: So it's maybe not all that different from a right hander with good extension or that hides the ball well or that back spins it well.

32:01.558 --> 32:04.362
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just, it's kind of a unique trait.

32:04.382 --> 32:10.170
[SPEAKER_03]: Like being a left handed pitcher and starter that has good stuff is just kind of a unique trait.

32:10.190 --> 32:13.234
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that's some of the value in it.

32:13.214 --> 32:16.782
[SPEAKER_03]: The other part of it is some of these guys are just really interesting athletes.

32:17.745 --> 32:19.709
[SPEAKER_03]: Parker Messick isn't the biggest guy.

32:19.729 --> 32:22.115
[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's listed at six feet.

32:22.135 --> 32:28.610
[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's probably shorter than that based on meeting him at the prospect pad last year and talking with him for a little bit.

32:29.512 --> 32:31.577
[SPEAKER_03]: Kind of like an unassuming body.

32:31.557 --> 32:37.771
[SPEAKER_03]: And just gets to really weird angles constantly and is able to throw strikes doing that.

32:37.971 --> 32:51.000
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think you see like Conley earlier, who's a guy that's kind of built up and added stuff to his arsenal, but always really had always had kind of outlier feel for his all of his secondarys, but particularly like the off speed stuff.

32:51.622 --> 33:20.059
[SPEAKER_03]: And you just kind of go through one by one and they all have very unique characteristics that I think allow them to have the sort of success that a lot of these guys are having and you know it would be interesting to see how like no assaults and some of these other guys Kate Anderson we thought but earlier how all of these guys kind of fit the equation because I think all of them do different things well from the left side, but it plays up a little bit more because of you know that unique angle that lefties just create generally.

33:20.933 --> 33:25.467
[SPEAKER_04]: I will just add, kind of, I just looked up things to baseball reference, so I kind of stats on this real quick.

33:25.487 --> 33:34.032
[SPEAKER_04]: So right handed hitters are hitting, have a 689 OPS, 238, 312, 377, against right handed pitchers this year.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Left handers are hitting 248, 334, 415, so 748, so much bigger, you know, much better.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Obviously, as you expect, right handed hitters have a 715 OPS against left handed pictures, which is still dramatically less than left these versus righties, and then lefties have a 676, which is even worse than the right handed versus righties against left handed pictures.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But to kind of just point,

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[SPEAKER_04]: left-handed pitchers are seeing right-handed batter 60, 7% of the time.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We've seen an emphasis in recent years on teams drafting left-handed hitting infielders, like, you know, while the great infielders will come up, are these lefty-hitting infielders switch hitters,

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[SPEAKER_04]: the guardians basically don't draft right handed hitters almost like their hitters they have a lot they have line ups in the minor leagues where it's like here's the right handed hitter on it and everyone else is a lefty or a switch hitter well one thing with that is is what's the antidote to that have a lot of lefties and so you know so this is kind of fascinating to watch to see kind of okay maybe this is this little extra edge and again the other part of it is is that I love when you said that he

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[SPEAKER_04]: who's kind of, you know, not really known for his velocities, 30% of velocity, and he's 93.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Like the other thing about this is, what used to be the soft tossing lefty, and I'm going to just note, as I like to note on these, on the same scale, this isn't about radar guns, picking up things at different levels.

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[SPEAKER_04]: That used to be a guy who was 88, 89, 90.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Those guys don't really exist pretty much anymore.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Now, it's guys who have 92, 93, 94 on our festivals, which is the same level of velocity that we were seeing from right-handed pictures, starting pictures as kind of average, not that long ago.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But again, doing that as a lefty and especially if you're getting to either take a guy out of the line up who you really don't want to face because he's a lefty master, but he struggles to hit righties, we lefties or you have that guy, but it's like, yeah, but okay, this guy really hits right handed pictures, but he has more trouble with lefties getting your starter in there.

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[SPEAKER_04]: That's saying a little tidbit.

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[SPEAKER_04]: That was something that Ian kind of noted before we jumped into this.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We hope you enjoyed that.

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[SPEAKER_04]: We hope you enjoyed the latest edition of the baseball America.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Prospect podcast.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So much more over at baseball america.com.

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[SPEAKER_04]: As always, we encourage you to go check that out.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And by the way, if you have thoughts, if you have comments, please leave on our YouTube channel,

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[SPEAKER_04]: Not only do we love reading, I'm not only do we like responding to a lot of them and all that, but at the same time, when you do that, it helps other people see the podcast as well.

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[SPEAKER_04]: And I get that, okay, I'll offer one disclaimer.

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[SPEAKER_04]: I get it if you're in a fantasy league, you're in a dynasty league and you just, you know, claimed Franklin areas because for some reason he wasn't a very wasn't already claimed or whatever because of this, I get it, you don't want to share it with any others in the league.

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[SPEAKER_04]: But,

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[SPEAKER_04]: just think of all the other people out there who could benefit this, not just the people in your league.

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[SPEAKER_04]: For Ian, for Jeff, I'm JJ.

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[SPEAKER_04]: So long, everybody.