[SPEAKER_03]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com and for our podcast subscribers, this is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: Independent Thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.

[SPEAKER_03]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor, Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is our Wednesday.

[SPEAKER_01]: Happy hump day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Wednesday, April 29th, 2021, 26th edition of Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: Lock going on.

[SPEAKER_01]: In today's world, we have the new with FedMeeting.

[SPEAKER_01]: DronePow's last one, we'll take a look at what was said there, what the market reaction was, but most importantly, we'll be tomorrow's reaction to this afternoon's mega earnings Benanza.

[SPEAKER_01]: All the hyperscale is from Amazon to Alphabet to Microsoft and Meta all reporting earnings in a lot of other ones as well, like Qualcomm and Ford, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of unpacked for this hour, but most importantly, we'll be your questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: As always, I am Justin Klein and my job is to help you become a better investor, utilize this hour most effectively.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that you, you know, so you can make better decisions with your money, but I also want to hear from you.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is on your mind?

[SPEAKER_01]: What do you need to know about?

[SPEAKER_01]: And when you call in, you ask your question, you're only helping yourself.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're helping your fellow invest talk listeners as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because most likely, whatever you have on your mind, which you're thinking about, someone else is also thinking about and would like an answer to.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're helping the community.

[SPEAKER_01]: So don't hesitate to reach out, 88899 chart is the number to get your question to answer to 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's time again for our most popular events, the new and best talk wealth webinar is happening online one week from today, it's free.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to focus on when everyone's talking about right now, which is inflation, how to protect your portfolio from it.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're to allocate what's overweight and how it's to find value.

[SPEAKER_01]: So market calendars, it's one week from today, but you do need to register over at investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: Once again, it's free.

[SPEAKER_01]: Another one is, so you're going to learn a lot and we'll dig into how inflation impacts various asset classes, very sectors and ultimately your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, just to be able to talk about today's Mark performance and run down the show topics for the hour,

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll tackle this first caller question now.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hello, I'm one of my goal out of a Netfield, and I love you, Joe, and I'd like to have your opinion on this talk to Zico Mines, some more TVB, it's a copper mining company out of Canada, and I'd like to know your opinion on that company before I invest.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks very much.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, looking at Tasega Mines,

[SPEAKER_01]: data providers from faxat to white charts to investors business daily so much.

[SPEAKER_01]: And faxat gives you good breakdown of where revenue is coming from.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yes, 88% is coming from copper at 9% from

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's mainly a copper producer, he is correct, earnings this year is supposed to be 39 cents, that's up from 5 cents last year, but it's supposed to earn 81 cents next year, and it's a $7 7 11 cent of the close today.

[SPEAKER_01]: Copper goal, they're all kind of pulling back going through a consolidation period, so not a shock to see this doing pretty much the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: But overall, the long-term technical setup is still there.

[SPEAKER_01]: The question is, is this the name you want to hitch your ride to?

[SPEAKER_01]: Last quarter, $178 million in revenue, so let's be the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was those four Q4, same this quarter, sorry, first quarter.

[SPEAKER_01]: This quarter, so let's be $190 million in revenue.

[SPEAKER_01]: Market cap is right around $2.5 billion.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some debt on its balance sheet, free cash flow is negative, return equity is negative.

[SPEAKER_01]: The way that I look at this is, it's historically not a very profitable name.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it's in a space where the underlying commodity that they're producing, the price is going up.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so they could easily go from losing money, like they did back in 2020, and then on the 9th and 10th, 2018,

[SPEAKER_01]: But that means that profitability is very volatile.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a very, very volatile name to play copper.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you're looking for the most juice to the upside, meaning copper continues to go up in price, prices take off.

[SPEAKER_01]: The delta in the change of their financial situation is going to be much larger than a company that's already producing profits within this space.

[SPEAKER_01]: So to me, that's the only argument of owning this is, I want the most juice for the upside of copper prices and this might be the one, but it's gonna be extremely volatile, extremely volatile.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so we want it on more consistent names, more companies that are more diversified that are much larger.

[SPEAKER_01]: You've heard us talk about Southern copper, for example.

[SPEAKER_01]: whose market is 140 billion versus two and a half billion, who's consistently produced profits and has high return equity, return assets, all of that, much better long-term performer.

[SPEAKER_01]: So over short periods, I think Ticico could outperform, but over meeting to long-term, most likely more mature names, like us on a copper or a free-porn mac brand.

[SPEAKER_01]: Whatever larger producer you want to talk about is going to,

[SPEAKER_01]: likely produce better, more consistent returns for shareholder.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I rather than one of those names over to SICO minds.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so time permitting.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, focus point to concerns topic.

[SPEAKER_01]: The apartment concession wave, what record landlords give away is tell us about their rental market.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nearly 40% of landlords are now offering concessions to attract tenants.

[SPEAKER_01]: Three months of rent, wage fees, gift cards.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is all a sign of the apartment market as shifted fundamentally shifted in favor of renters after many years of landlords dominating.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll write down what this tells us about housing supply, shelter inflation,

[SPEAKER_01]: the investment case for real estate over all.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll dig into that story.

[SPEAKER_01]: In addition to how is, how's the business model of SaaS software business changing?

[SPEAKER_01]: Take a look at the bull and bear case around that.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then what is the, as this more than the Middle East, this blockade, whatever you want to call it in the Middle East, drags on what will the economic shock waves be?

[SPEAKER_01]: as supply chains break down.

[SPEAKER_01]: So those are the topics that are on the docket for me.

[SPEAKER_01]: We also have voice bank calls, one is on shorting, the other is on Uber, and there are some questions that came in via the comment section over on the of S.T.K.

[SPEAKER_01]: YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_01]: As well, and of course, we welcome your financial investment questions right now at 80 to 90, nine, chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we're gonna head to a quick break.

[SPEAKER_01]: Once again, you can call me 24 hours in a seven days a week.

[SPEAKER_01]: Be your message on the voice bank or on our best stock voice bank.

[SPEAKER_01]: However, if you're listening to the live stream, for the five Pacific time, on AM1220 in the day area, or maybe you're listening to our website, the live stream, you can call right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hang on, because I plan to talk about today's market activity in the next segment.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's time again for one of our most popular special events.

[SPEAKER_01]: A new, invest talk, wealth webinar.

[SPEAKER_00]: Wednesday, May 6th at 1pm Pacific.

[SPEAKER_00]: The webinar will focus on a topic.

[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of investors you're dealing with right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: The new, wealth webinar is titled How to Protect Your Portfolio from Inflation.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to allocate what's overweight and how to find value.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about where investors may want to look when cash is losing value.

[SPEAKER_00]: What parts of the market have historically held up better during inflationary periods?

[SPEAKER_00]: And how to think about finding real value when a lot of the market still feels expensive?

[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll also spend some time in how inflation can distort valuations.

[SPEAKER_01]: because that's something investors really need to understand in this kind of environment.

[SPEAKER_01]: And as usual, we'll close out the webinar with a live Q&A session.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's all happening online Wednesday, May 6th at 1pm specific time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Register now at investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_04]: There are a few things that make KPP financial special.

[SPEAKER_04]: One of them is parallel investing.

[SPEAKER_04]: This means they invest right alongside their clients.

[SPEAKER_04]: Here's how it works.

[SPEAKER_04]: When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, just in client makes the same trade for himself and KPP.

[SPEAKER_04]: On the same day, at the same price and same percentage.

[SPEAKER_04]: No front running, no special treatment.

[SPEAKER_04]: Learn more about Parallel Investing at InvestTalk.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go take a look at a very interesting market today.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was roughly flat.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had...

[SPEAKER_01]: The S&P down four basis points, Nasdaq was up four basis points, basically flat overall, large cap growth, certainly was the weakest.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had some pockets of weakness out of names I can video in Microsoft.

[SPEAKER_01]: Eli Lilly, Tesla.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those were some of the bigger names that were down, but you had some strength out of the chip producers, AMD up 4% in telep and other 12%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Cisco up three, Sandiskin and C-gate.

[SPEAKER_01]: all a big, same with Western digital.

[SPEAKER_01]: So anything that continues to be around AI data center build up a hardware aspect of it continues to do fairly.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, these add earnings, that was up 8% so market like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Energy was strong.

[SPEAKER_01]: But outside of that, a lot of red across healthcare, across utilities, across finance,

[SPEAKER_01]: Really, the market didn't love a more hawkish bias from the Fed, and that's really what you saw here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone knew they weren't going to do anything in Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed governor and he stayed on, he's staying on as a member of the FOMC board, which is also not a surprise.

[SPEAKER_01]: But what was a surprise was that

[SPEAKER_01]: Three of the Fed members, they supported a holding rate study, but they opposed what they said is an easing bias in the policy statement.

[SPEAKER_01]: So clearly setting up to fact that they shouldn't be leaning one way or the other versus the policy statement that was leaning a bit, rubbish.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's Stephen Moran, which is,

[SPEAKER_01]: continued to push for rate cuts over the past few meetings.

[SPEAKER_01]: He did to send again, but also an in favor of a 25 basis point cut.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the market has kind of priced out because of those the centers, they priced out any rate cuts between now and your end.

[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, there's now a better chance of a rate increase by your end as opposed to one rate cut.

[SPEAKER_01]: So clearly there's a battle set up on the Fed board of whether they're going to cut rates or not.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see how that ultimately settles out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely reacted a bit hawkishly, saw a bit of a sell-off, the dollar rallied a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nothing major, I think, and nothing major mainly because we had earnings set up after hours.

[SPEAKER_01]: Animals, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta all reported after the bell, which is interesting is that three of the four are down on the report, only Alphabet.

[SPEAKER_01]: looks like it is up after hours, the rest are down decently, which, and if you look at all of the reports, they double beats, they all beat on revenue, all the beat on earnings, however.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not about that.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's about what the market reaction is.

[SPEAKER_01]: The market reaction so far has been fairly negative.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a big question, whether hyperscalers are inflecting their capex spend, meaning hey, they're not going to spend quite as much now Google actually raised their outlook.

[SPEAKER_01]: for CapEx spending.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that was interesting.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the market reactor positively.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see kind of how that ends up in, and ultimately, it's after hours, volume is fairly light, can't really darn or too much from.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just so after hours trading, we'll see how things settle out tomorrow.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's ultimately where you're going to get the fireworks.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's on the open throughout the day tomorrow.

[SPEAKER_01]: And really through the end of the week, because we do have apples earnings as well tomorrow after the bell.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that would be a market mover.

[SPEAKER_01]: And after today, after this week, excuse me, you'll have about.

[SPEAKER_01]: 70%, two thirds of the S&P 500 has reported earnings, so the market has a lot more to digest as we get through the end of the week.

[SPEAKER_01]: What else did you have here?

[SPEAKER_01]: Treasuries were a bit weaker with rates up nine to 10 basis points on the short end.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the 30 year touched 5% for the first time since late March.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this is something I'm watching is will the Treasury market become dysfunctional in some ways, meaning the long end of the curve 10 years, 30 years.

[SPEAKER_01]: Will they start to blow out to the upside?

[SPEAKER_01]: And how will the Fed or Treasury step in, potentially, quail that?

[SPEAKER_01]: And what would be the release found?

[SPEAKER_01]: Most likely it'll be a weaker dollar.

[SPEAKER_01]: But so far, dollar index was that 0.3% on the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gold finished down 1%, silver down 2.3% on the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin down 1.3%.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then WTI, up 7%, near the best levels in a while, above 105 per barrel,

[SPEAKER_01]: Middle East conflict continues to drain stockpiles around the globe, including here domestically, there have been a lot of ships that are coming to America to drain our stock piles.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at the stockpiles or are dwindling, and that means higher prices at the pump for you and me, and that's starting to show up in a major way.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that was the market today, very interesting day, and what will be most interesting will be the reaction to Marrow.

[SPEAKER_01]: They were heading to a break.

[SPEAKER_01]: We thank you for helping us achieve one of the 62 million downloads.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can call me any time.

[SPEAKER_01]: 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with your questions at 8-899 chart.

[SPEAKER_04]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

[SPEAKER_04]: Now the torch has been passed, and a new generation of hosts is on the job, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_04]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call, in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_04]: 888-99, chart.

[SPEAKER_05]: Hey Justin and Luke Long time listener here looking to get some advice and guidance on stock ticker Uber, we clearly know what they do, but I also saw that getting into new verticals at their announcements today including hotel bookings and shopping that a 52 week low.

[SPEAKER_05]: I know it hasn't gotten above any day any of its moving averages, but I want to hear what you guys see back is and whether or not this is a good time to buy.

[SPEAKER_05]: Looking to the whole long term love the show.

[SPEAKER_05]: Appreciate what you do every day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a very interesting, everyone knows what Uber does.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he had a comment there about new verticals.

[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of people would get excited about that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But usually when I see that, after a long period of growth, what I sniff out is a bit of management desperation.

[SPEAKER_01]: But they can't, they're already the biggest rights that I'm in left,

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's not much room to grow elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so they're looking to maximize their platform by going to different verticals.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it may work.

[SPEAKER_01]: But usually it spreads the focus and doesn't ultimately produce a great business.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you don't call a new word to get a new word.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it's just a word each, who we're new reads.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's other verticals that like a task grab thing, I don't know, we'll see.

[SPEAKER_01]: that that's what they're reaching for.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd rather than do what they do well, which is operate basically, the digital taxi business, and continue to expand it around the globe.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then you look at the chart, and the chart is in a clear downtrend.

[SPEAKER_01]: Peak right around 100 always per share, and now we're at about $75 per share.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's below all the major moving averages.

[SPEAKER_01]: And earnings this year, so it's the fall 29% to $3.37.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's a very cyclical business.

[SPEAKER_01]: and guess what the input costs are, typically gasoline, gasoline prices are going up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Drivers are going to pass that along.

[SPEAKER_01]: And standard supply and demand, if prices go up, demand goes down.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a very cyclical business as discretionary budgets get squeezed due to the inflationary impulses that we're seeing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that their business will continue to decelerate.

[SPEAKER_01]: And their profits will continue to decelerate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I like the business overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like that they don't have a lot of debt on their balance sheet.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's good.

[SPEAKER_01]: And they started to buy back shares.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like the cash flow is being used to.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's get by back shares.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like that you have the sign you're watched list.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would like to get above the hundred-day living average, which are recently tested.

[SPEAKER_01]: So having the solidity here and start to repair its chart, well, then I think from a valuation standpoint, if it does hit next to earnings of $4.33, I think it's a reasonable stock down.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm impatient with it because of that downtrend.

[SPEAKER_01]: I want to see more from the chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those talk on other YouTube comment question.

[SPEAKER_01]: Mikey Chants says, hey, guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Long time listener from Vancouver BC.

[SPEAKER_01]: Can I get your thoughts on X, E, F, X, E, F?

[SPEAKER_01]: Sumings, talking about X E F dot T O, there we go, dot T O, okay, this is an MSCI core.

[SPEAKER_01]: I shares core MSCI, EFA, and when the, our Canadians call, you always have to preface that it is listed in the, the Toronto exchange.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like the foreign exposure.

[SPEAKER_01]: It looks just like an index, I think it's a good way to gain exposure to the broader index.

[SPEAKER_01]: 20 are broader foreign markets, not just foreign compared to the US markets, but this holds companies in Europe, ASMLs is top-holding.

[SPEAKER_01]: obviously a European name, HSBC is second than AstraZeneca, that's the name that we actually hold for clients.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we like, I like this.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like this type of exposure for most portfolios, relatively low fee.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're talking about a Spencer issue of just, where are we?

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's interesting to look at these Canadian listed ones.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're just a bit different when it comes to the data that you get.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I look at the portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: It looks pretty good.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have the

[SPEAKER_01]: increasingly overweight, foreign markets, it's where most of the value is and this is a good vehicle for that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now the next investor talk we'll look into the story behind this question.

[SPEAKER_01]: Will the Iran or whether Iran war be the catalyst that finally supercharges the green energy transition?

[SPEAKER_01]: Soaring European power prices driven by the Iran conflict,

[SPEAKER_01]: are sending governments and investors scrambling towards solar and other renewables at a pace never seen before and we explore whether this energy shock represents a permanent turning point or clean energy, investment or just a temporary spike and interest.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll take you to that story tomorrow but for now I'm Justin Klein and ready to take your calls any time at 8 a.m. at 8 a.m. at 9 a.m. at 9 a.m. at 9 a.m. at 9 a.m. at 9 a.m. at 9 a.m.

[SPEAKER_04]: Get ready for an all-new, in Vestock, wealth webinar.

[SPEAKER_04]: It's all happening online Wednesday, May 6th, 1 p.m. Pacific Time.

[SPEAKER_04]: The free webinar will focus on a topic a lot of investors are dealing with now.

[SPEAKER_04]: Inflation.

[SPEAKER_04]: The wealth webinar has titled how to protect your portfolio from inflation, where to allocate, what to overweight, and how to find value.

[SPEAKER_04]: So mark your calendar for Wednesday, May 6th, 1 p.m. Pacific, and register now at investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: Our main focus point today is about the apartment concession wave and what record landlord giveaways tells about the rental market.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's dig into some of the numbers because there are a lot of numbers to go over.

[SPEAKER_01]: 2026 is really a inflection point in many markets when it comes to rents absorbing the huge wave of apartment supply that came on board as of late is finally rebalancing.

[SPEAKER_01]: the market where it was tight supply and rents were going up consistently.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now in some parts, some geographies, there's persistent supply overhains, decelerating employment growth, and the construction pipeline that is no longer rising.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's falling actually considerably.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not delivering nearly as many units as I had before.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now right now, there's about 20.7 million apartments in the country across

[SPEAKER_01]: The national vacancy rate is up to 8.6% that's the highest level since post financial crisis.

[SPEAKER_01]: The average Proxima Store Collaborative is 6.9%.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's 6.9%, now we're at 8.6.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why is this?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because nearly 1.8 million units were delivered in just the past three years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So nearly a, it's about a 10% increase in the number of apartments available for rent in just the past three years.

[SPEAKER_01]: Think about that.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Trailing 12 month absorption rate, which means how many new apartment renters there are,

[SPEAKER_01]: In net is only 397,000.

[SPEAKER_01]: The circuit is pretty good, but it's well short of the 500 plus thousand.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was delivered over that time period.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's really a supply, and this goes back to, it's not just all about demand, it's about supply as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Supplies in some ways overwhelming the demand.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is very common.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen this, we saw this in,

[SPEAKER_01]: Just normal, single-family home building and pre-financial crisis here, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: They built too many homes.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the apartment industry is built too many apartments.

[SPEAKER_01]: And in Q4, the absorption rate was only 55,000 units, so annualized you're talking only a couple hundred thousand, versus trailing 12 months of nearly 400,000.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it was basically being cut in half on an annualized basis.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, national rent growth is now only just 0.1% year over year, the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2010.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you take in effect the rent growth, concessions, other landowners set incentives, rents are only up 0.6% year of year.

[SPEAKER_01]: What's interesting here, though, is depends on the quality.

[SPEAKER_01]: One in two stars, so the highest, best quality apartments has a strong, good, direct growth about 1.1%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because there's limited news supply.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's harder to build those type of facilities.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a captive renter base.

[SPEAKER_01]: People that rent at that level, they can afford to stay.

[SPEAKER_01]: They want to stay typically.

[SPEAKER_01]: They don't want to move of the hassle.

[SPEAKER_01]: Their life's are busy.

[SPEAKER_01]: They probably have a high paying job.

[SPEAKER_01]: They don't stay.

[SPEAKER_01]: They can afford.

[SPEAKER_01]: and that the landlord knows that, so they raise rents.

[SPEAKER_01]: The three-star segment that I grew at Moss.

[SPEAKER_01]: 0.3% year of year, and in the four and five star, they're the ones that had the weakest rent growth.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why?

[SPEAKER_01]: Mainly because 85% of recent applications are in that 4 in 5 star segment.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the new supplies are not the nicest apartments out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those only registered 0.2% rental group.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about construction cycles.

[SPEAKER_01]: Began in 2021, we've talked about this for a while for a number of years.

[SPEAKER_01]: There was a boom in apartment building.

[SPEAKER_01]: Post COVID.

[SPEAKER_01]: annual net deliveries peak at 690,000 units in Q4, 2024, a 40-year high.

[SPEAKER_01]: But last year, it decelerated to only 523,000 units, down 25 percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: This year, expected to contract another 36% to only 333,000 units.

[SPEAKER_01]: The lowest annual delivery total since 2014.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you can see the industry adjusts, they're adjusting.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you look at companies that are tied to these, this industry, well, this could be the start of,

[SPEAKER_01]: They rebound in rents because of the dirt of news supply coming on market.

[SPEAKER_01]: And a big reason for the dirt of news supply, construction costs are up 39% since 2020.

[SPEAKER_01]: The construction pipeline is down by more than 50% from its peak.

[SPEAKER_01]: It fell from 1.18 million units under construction Q1 of 2023 to roughly 579,000 Q4 last year, and expected to continue to fall this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now what markets are filling the the hurt, the sun belt markets?

[SPEAKER_01]: Austin deliveries projected to climb 47% Denver by more than 50% Phoenix down 40% Well areas like Miami and Charlotte expected to increase inventory a little bit L.A. Boston, Columbus, Ohio, San Diego among the markets where there is still new supply coming on market why because they're still demand.

[SPEAKER_01]: Worst of heart rental growth, Austin Texas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Colorado Springs, Dallas, Fort Worth, Las Vegas, Orlando, Houston.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're looking out apartment reads, for example, you don't want them to be in those areas.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want those properties to be there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Where do you want them to be in places like the strongest rental growth or in Norfolk?

[SPEAKER_01]: Rochester, Dayton, Chicago, Hartford, New York, and Seattle?

[SPEAKER_01]: Among the 50 metropolitan areas with the largest vacancy, you're talking with Sarah Soda-Flor at a Huntsville, San Antonio, Memphis, Baton Rouge.

[SPEAKER_01]: Austin was the poster child.

[SPEAKER_01]: Was the first to really see rent drop as a vacancy rate of 13.7%.

[SPEAKER_01]: The steepest rent decline nationally right now at 4.8%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Denver, down 3.6, Phoenix, down 2.9, Tampa, down 2.9, San Antonio, down 3.3.

[SPEAKER_01]: These are some of the weakest performers when it comes to rental growth.

[SPEAKER_01]: Or the strongest San Jose, Norfolk, Rochester, and Chicago.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then New York, the lowest national vacancy rate of only 3.1%.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the summary there.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're looking at what's going on in the rental market to get over view of what's what's happening right now, but I do think there could be an inflection point here.

[SPEAKER_01]: where the market starts to price in, rental growth once again, but probably in those areas that are still relatively strong where you're still see people moving.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's swing back to the Bestock Voice Bank, 80, 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_06]: Hey, Luke and Justin, Gilles and Phil Daufe here, just want to call regarding a couple of quantum stocks interested in possibly picking up one or two.

[SPEAKER_06]: I know that it's years away from quantum,

[SPEAKER_06]: possibly the next AI and wanted to get ahead of it.

[SPEAKER_06]: Wanted to know about quantum computing, take a QUET, or ionic Q incorporated.

[SPEAKER_06]: I-O-N-Q is a ticker.

[SPEAKER_06]: I'm thinking more ionic Q, as that's more of a peer play for quantum computing.

[SPEAKER_06]: But wanted to get your guide's thoughts on which one you think

[SPEAKER_06]: No, what you guys do when looking forward to hearing on the show.

[SPEAKER_06]: Take care.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, they both could be a winner.

[SPEAKER_01]: But as you said, what is the better plan?

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, both of these are about a speculative, and I don't even call it investment.

[SPEAKER_01]: These are some of the most speculative stocks in the market.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because it's all about the hopes and dreams of quantum computing and them mastering it, mastering the technology and being a winner.

[SPEAKER_01]: Remember, names like Alphabet, Google, they're putting a lot of money into quantum computing as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they have very deep pockets able to pay the smartest and best engineers.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they'll odds are much better that an Alphabet is going to crack the code of quantum computing versus these names.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'd say it can't happen, but I wouldn't pitch my right.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you will be getting a peer play.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the issue with investing in Alphabet.

[SPEAKER_01]: here lumped in with a lot of things which can be good, can be bad, where's these, as you said, are a peer place.

[SPEAKER_01]: I and Q is $15 billion market cap, quantum computing is $1.8 billion market of so much smaller, but their revenue reflects that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Q1, quantum computing is supposed to have only

[SPEAKER_01]: your browser goes, hey, why aren't there we go?

[SPEAKER_01]: I, on Q, about $50 million in revenue.

[SPEAKER_01]: Both of them were still losing gobs of money.

[SPEAKER_01]: Both of them issuing gobs of amounts of shares to plug the negative free cash flow hole.

[SPEAKER_01]: Negative 388 million for I, on Q.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the number of shares outstanding, just since they'd be getting about this beginning of last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: 221 million shares outstanding.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is that standout today?

[SPEAKER_01]: In just over 15 months, 366 million shares.

[SPEAKER_01]: The massive increase.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're talking, what is that?

[SPEAKER_01]: Is 70 presenting increase?

[SPEAKER_01]: Number shares outstanding?

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what you're putting money towards is just a story.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sit, just a story.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you want to hit your ride to a story?

[SPEAKER_01]: That's that thumb we do here in a Vestock.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is about this is in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is not speculative talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you want to go and speculate, go for it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not my cup of tea, not my bag.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if you had to put a gun to my head and you said one or the other, what am I investing in?

[SPEAKER_01]: I thank you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Bigger has some revenue.

[SPEAKER_01]: But also, it comes down to technology as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have to do your research, which one is most likely to crack the code of quantum computing.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's probably the better answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I wouldn't invest in either.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go back to the investor talk, a voice bank, and answer one more question.

[SPEAKER_07]: Hey guys, Randy from Tampa.

[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks for all you do.

[SPEAKER_07]: Kind of a good question.

[SPEAKER_07]: Wanted to get your opinion on ticker symbol, M, O, A, T, Mot,

[SPEAKER_07]: been looking at adding a position to it and sure if it's in a good opportunity to buy.

[SPEAKER_07]: Let me know your thoughts.

[SPEAKER_01]: Looking at M-O-A-T, this is the Vanic Morningstar Y-Mote ETF.

[SPEAKER_01]: Generally, I like the idea of investing in a fund who's really just investing companies that have Y-Motes.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's Morningstar Speak.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is a Y-Mote?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's basically a strong competitive advantage.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now that could be technological, that could be because of IP, that could be because of scale.

[SPEAKER_01]: There could be a lot of sources of economic advantages.

[SPEAKER_01]: You want the business school, you learn all about those.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's definitely something that tends to drive above average.

[SPEAKER_01]: Profitability, which translates to above average, returns on equity and returns for you the shareholder, etc.

[SPEAKER_01]: About 10 things tend to move.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's another word also for quality, quality businesses, once again produce high profit margins, profitability, those tend to be good investments.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like this in general.

[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely better than say just only the S&P.

[SPEAKER_01]: You get a little bit different mix.

[SPEAKER_01]: You get no basic material stocks here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those have been doing well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Decent exposure to industrial, consumer-defensive, consumer-defensive, don't work that well in inflation-environment.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's one issue here.

[SPEAKER_01]: And in the world of AI, some of these modes are probably weaker than morning star has led on yet.

[SPEAKER_01]: They will upgrade and downgrade the modes, meaning,

[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, there could be a change to the overall structure, the business model that makes their competitive damage not quite as as strong as it used to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it could make go from why to what they call narrow.

[SPEAKER_01]: And once again, in the end, we're all the AI that could certainly shift for a lot of these names.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you go to the performance, it's about the index average.

[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, it was up 13%, brother and next was down up about 18% on underperform.

[SPEAKER_01]: This year, it's actually down 3%, and the big reason for that is because a lot of software names historically have had strong votes.

[SPEAKER_01]: And many of those names are struggling.

[SPEAKER_01]: Fortnite is a good example, it's a 10th largest holding here.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's in cyber security space that is struggled.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then you go down the list, the Microsoft,

[SPEAKER_01]: And here, you go deeper down the list, you get names like Nike, they've been struggling.

[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of modi type of businesses we call them are not doing quite as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why this is struggling.

[SPEAKER_01]: So in the world of AI, I just don't think this is an ETF that I get excited for, because I think Morningstar is a little slow to adjust their mode ratings.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I would pass on it for now.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the best thought I'm just inclined we have one goal here, each and every week thanks up you achieve your own version of financial freedom and as always, we are here to help you, where you continue after our final breaks with your questions in now and 8 in it and I need that chart.

[SPEAKER_04]: Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_04]: Tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Invest Talk on our YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_04]: And they can leave their finance and investment questions anytime on 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to go talk to Orlando.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's in San Bernardino listening on Amazon Music.

[SPEAKER_01]: I want to talk about trading.

[SPEAKER_08]: So I think I was day trading on

[SPEAKER_08]: That video was volatile last week and I'm new to this whole thing and I use Vanguard.

[SPEAKER_08]: So I made two trades in one day using Vanguard and I got a 90 day restriction for free writing and so I called them and they told me that I should open up a brokerage account on margin.

[SPEAKER_08]: But I've heard you guys talk about margin trading isn't a good thing.

[SPEAKER_08]: GameStopping and this kid had this crazy dead on margin and committed suicide.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it is probably using options as my guess, but so I don't know the exact details you're talking about, but you were you doing this trading in an IRA of any type?

[SPEAKER_08]: I think it's, I read across.

[SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, traditional IRA, yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so there are rules around you can't date trade in retirement accounts, like IRAs, Roth IRAs.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you don't use that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so that's why you got that that mark basically what what happened is you traded unsettled chairs meaning you bought it, but yeah, actually settle the next day and you sold it before you settled settled like overnight or so exactly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that is the issue you have here now if you want to day trade that's what he said open up a brokerage account now what he's saying is it's margin approved meaning that you can trade on the position that's unsettled So that's what it's really it doesn't necessarily mean you're using margin mean you're on margin you spent more than you're

[SPEAKER_01]: You put in the account which you can do and you have margin of account, you probably don't want to do a whole lot of this, especially when you're green to this.

[SPEAKER_01]: You want to be very careful because most people blow themselves up rather quickly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you want to be very slow.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do a lot of paper trading, small trades at first, and then get into a rhythm and no figure out things that work.

[SPEAKER_01]: as opposed to doing big trades that it easily blew you up overnight.

[SPEAKER_01]: So be very, very slow with this, learn and learn the easy way and these ways by position sizing.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's one of the most important aspects of trading in general, such as buying something, but it's how much should you buy, which risk are you taking, controlling that risk, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yes, you should open a brokerage account, but also don't use fan guard.

[SPEAKER_01]: Use, reuse Schwab, and now fidelity.

[SPEAKER_01]: Use one of those, you can go to E-Trade.

[SPEAKER_01]: Use one of the bigger guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Vanguard is not for trading.

[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't have good technology.

[SPEAKER_01]: It does not have good customer service.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want to use Robinhood either.

[SPEAKER_01]: They just gamify everything.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's very difficult to use as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, use one of the big guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have great technology.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know Schwab with, because they're acquisition of T.E.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have great technology.

[SPEAKER_01]: You think your swim is a fantastic tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I would be using that if I'm a from a regular retail trader that's the way I would go because of those tools that they naturally give you and it's a better customer service.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you know, I don't know skin the game here, but that's the way I would go.

[SPEAKER_08]: I would not be using thing.

[SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean, to be created before hours or after hours with them.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, to be fair, I mean, that's just rules in any brokerage.

[SPEAKER_01]: So what you did, day trading within a retirement account, that's going to be flagged at any brokerage you ever you work with, it doesn't matter.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's just the industry rule.

[SPEAKER_01]: But just for a day trading sense in short term, swing trading, if you're doing a lot of transactions,

[SPEAKER_01]: Vanguard is not going to give you the best fills, it's not going to give you the best customer service, it's certainly not going to give you the best technology to help you learn and be better and make smart trades, all of that do research, not the place that you want to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's always designed, it's just you buy an index fund and that's it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I don't recommend Vanguard to anybody as a broker.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can buy Vanguard funds wherever you want and get much better tools elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_08]: Okay, I appreciate that while we're on sleep number, what do you think?

[SPEAKER_08]: They just got approval for a loan or something like that after they were gonna go bankrupt.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, that's good.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're getting a bit of capital.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's saved them from bankruptcy.

[SPEAKER_01]: This was during 34 cents next year, if they do, that's great.

[SPEAKER_01]: This business is historically very volatile.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's not an investment for me.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't love.

[SPEAKER_01]: companies with a lot of debt especially in this environment.

[SPEAKER_01]: But as a day trade, could it rally back up, you know, into the Fives?

[SPEAKER_01]: Very well, could.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_01]: Without my dozen, I'm Justin Klein reminding you about KP Financial's parallel investing when we make a trade for our clients.

[SPEAKER_01]: We make the same trade for ourselves.

[SPEAKER_01]: Same day, same price, same percentage, no front running, and definitely no special treatments.

[SPEAKER_01]: We invest right

[SPEAKER_01]: for our clients each and every day at KPP Financial.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can learn more by heading over to investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: Please tell your friends and family about a free podcast download.

[SPEAKER_01]: If I need any time, I too in Spotify as well as Apple.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not Apple, excuse me, Amazon, music.

[SPEAKER_01]: Make sure to check out our YouTube videos as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And don't forget to register for the new wealth webinar coming up on May 6th one week away.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's about inflation, how it impacts portfolios, asset classes, sectors, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: you can register or free at invest.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: Independent thinking should success.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the best stock.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good name.

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