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[SPEAKER_02]: Hey everybody, J.J. Cooper Jacob run their baseball America college podcast.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, you're getting me today.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We're mixing it up a little bit Jacob who has to be here as, you know, as usual, but I'm going to talk a little college baseball with you all today as well, and I picked a great week to to show up because there's a lot going on.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, I should say that, you know, I JJ Cooper and if you're listening on the pot, I am part of the college top 25 meeting every week.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm part of the field of 64 meeting every week.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not just dropping in and going, hey, so let's talk a little college baseball.
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[SPEAKER_02]: No, I'm tracking this really closely.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Not as close as Jacob, but talk about a great week.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We only have one more week of the regular season for most teams.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We have conference tournaments right around the corner.
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[SPEAKER_02]: The field of 64 LB announced we are recording this on Monday.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It'll be announced two weeks from today, hard to believe.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But, and most importantly, and probably the thing we should start with Jacob.
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[SPEAKER_02]: we came closer than we expected to have a number one debate, but UCLA comes from behind once again and makes it easy to continue to go coast coast because they won their series, but no one would say it was easy.
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[SPEAKER_03]: No, certainly not easy.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, it looked easy at first.
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[SPEAKER_03]: When I got the 11 to 1, run rule win, seven innings in the series, open her against Oregon.
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[SPEAKER_03]: In Westwood, and that was by the way without Logan Reddeman, Wylen Moss, the sophomore who has looked every bit the part of a first rounder and next year's draft, went out and did a great job on Friday night, and then they come back and they lose nine to six on Saturday, and then win by the same score, nine to six,
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, who also west also saved a home run earlier in the game right defensively right saved a home run earlier in the game defensively But this was the closest we've come.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I mean it it was a ranked series at home UCLA has been so good and frankly the conference that it plays in so week that you have to win every single one of your weekends to remain number one and honestly
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[SPEAKER_03]: In this year's poll, the group of teams at the top North Carolina, which we have second, they're 11, one in one of the weekends.
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[SPEAKER_03]: You have Texas at 11 and two, which was formally number three.
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[SPEAKER_03]: They are moving down now.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Georgia Tech has one weekend.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Georgia has one losing weekend.
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[SPEAKER_03]: You have to be perfect to stay where you are.
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[SPEAKER_03]: If you're UCLA, they did that.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Was it was Harry for a minute?
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yes.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But it is now the record breaking performance for a week spent at
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[SPEAKER_02]: And again, they do it one more week.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They will have gone coast to coast regular season number one, which is something as you just laid out that we have never seen before in the baseball America rankings.
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[SPEAKER_02]: By the way, we've been doing these for a very, very, very, very long time at this point.
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[SPEAKER_02]: This goes back, you know, far below for me.
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[SPEAKER_02]: This goes back into the early days of ESPN doing holidays on the 80s, kind of the rankings for that far back.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But, um,
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[SPEAKER_02]: But the other thing with that is, is I do want you mentioned, like no Logan Redmond again this week.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They're still the the talk is is that what they're saying is is that that the hope is is he will be back.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But I do want to kind of ask the question.
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[SPEAKER_02]: This UCLA team.
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[SPEAKER_02]: If Logan Redmond's not ready to go in a couple of weeks, right?
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[SPEAKER_02]: Like this is the team I do think that we feel pretty comfortable should be able to make it through regionals even if Redmond's not back yet.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But on the time to get to super regionals, how important you think it is to having that ace, as you said, knowledge is he in ace.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, it's a team that's not one starting pitcher, but having an ace like that, which means that everyone else moves down the ladder one spot.
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[SPEAKER_02]: How important you think that is to UCLA's ability to get to Omaha?
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[SPEAKER_03]: super important and you know this as well as anybody it's like you go back to the last couple of years and look at the teams that have reached Omaha that have won the National Championship and I would say rather consistently we've seen with those teams that they have a unquestioned ace somebody who's gonna be able to go out there and reliably when you a baseball game even if your offense doesn't show up that's been guys like Paul schemes we've seen
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[SPEAKER_03]: You know, routers are ready, example of somebody for Wake Forest, they didn't win the National Championship, but one of the reasons that they played is deep in that year that they did was because Rett Bouter was so efficient, Kate Anderson and Anthony, Iainson last year for LSU.
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[SPEAKER_03]: There's a number of great examples of...
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[SPEAKER_03]: top-end quality pitchers that can take teams to Omaha.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I think that Logan Reddenman we've seen so far this year has those qualities.
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[SPEAKER_03]: He's around the zone.
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[SPEAKER_03]: He's capable of giving teams innings.
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[SPEAKER_03]: He misses bats in important moments.
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[SPEAKER_03]: There are multiple pitches.
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[SPEAKER_03]: That was a classic deep postseason run ace.
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[SPEAKER_03]: where I think UCLA is different, is that there is enough scaffolding around the building here that I don't think that one accident or one bad situation is going to be the thing that sinks it.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Why would Moss, when I mentioned earlier, he looks like a first round pick for next year.
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[SPEAKER_03]: It's a plus change up.
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[SPEAKER_03]: He's 94 to 96 and somebody who I think is capable of holding down a prominent
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[SPEAKER_03]: for a team like that.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Is that the same thing is trotting out your junior ace who had the, you know, potentially going to the top 10 in his respective year.
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[SPEAKER_03]: No, it's not the same thing.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And then, and I think that there's a level of uncertainty that it comes with, but I think that one of the reasons that this UCLA team is so great is because it does have multiple options, and they aren't necessarily stretch too thin.
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[SPEAKER_03]: If somebody important goes down like Logan Rhett of Ended.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Well, you kind of perfectly segue this.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You said you're usually the team to have an ace.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We've
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[SPEAKER_02]: We also you've already mentioned them.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We Georgia wrapped up the SEC regular season title this past weekend with by beating LSU and Georgia Tech bludgeon Duke, which Georgia Tech, you know, we are working on our field of 64.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It'll be helped soon thereafter after you if we post this.
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[SPEAKER_02]: both these teams are very high up in our national sea projections.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But I would say in both cases nothing against a tape Mickey, nothing against a Joey Voltschko, but
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[SPEAKER_02]: Those are two teams that if they win it, it's going to be because their lineups are just so overwhelming that they bludgeon teams into submission.
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[SPEAKER_02]: The stat that I love about this is, is if I told you that it was a player who was hitting 3, 64, 76, 30, I think we would be like that.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Junior, draft eligible, that's got to be one of the better juniors in the class, I'll imagine.
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[SPEAKER_02]: That's Georgia Tech's overall stat line across their entire team this year.
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[SPEAKER_02]: That is
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[SPEAKER_02]: That's, to say that that's remarkable, to say that that's hard to tell them, to say that that is easily the best in the country this year.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They are averaging 10.6 runs per game.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They are averaging 9.3 runs per game in comforts.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Georgia is averaging, this number two in the country.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They are averaging 9.65 runs per game.
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[SPEAKER_02]: 7.9 runs per game in comforts.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I will just pose it this way.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We've been analyzing them, but Jacob,
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[SPEAKER_02]: do these teams have is there enough pitching here or the offense is so good that maybe they can be the exception to the rule that you just talked about or is it something where as great as these offenses are once we get to the postseason, once we get to that you're not going to see in a super regional, you're not going to see as deep into pitching staffs as we often do right now.
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[SPEAKER_02]: As all of that gets to get tougher and tougher as you face more aces,
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[SPEAKER_02]: Is this, are these two teams who might be a little disappointing come postseason because it's not the ace lead approach?
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[SPEAKER_03]: Well, I mean, I think it cuts both ways.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And that's like a little bit the cheap answer to your question.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But on one hand, you have a team like Georgia Tech who leads the nation in just about every meaningful honest category, both in terms of counting stats, but also some of the peripherals they hit the ball harder than any team in the country.
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[SPEAKER_03]: They are elite, like the entire roster, one to nine, and then some guys beyond that on the bench.
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[SPEAKER_03]: They are elite against fastballs.
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[SPEAKER_03]: pro-level velocity, Georgia Tech, simply crushes.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that that will serve them, it already has served them very well in the postseason.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I think that this is a team that can go out and make it a really miserable day for another really good team's ace.
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[SPEAKER_03]: This is the kind of team that I think faces, somebody's best believer or two late in a regional game or late in a super regional game that really matters a lot in a leveraged spot.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And as capable of coming up with the big hit, pretty much no matter who's at the plate.
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[SPEAKER_03]: you can say the same about Georgia.
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[SPEAKER_03]: You know, the number of guys, Daniel Jackson is obviously the big name, but like Tray Velk, Tray Phelps, the third basement has had a great year and you can go up and down the roster there and find a number of guys who can get the job done in any given moment.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Is the pitching good enough from a postseason standpoint?
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[SPEAKER_03]: Probably not in either case and I do think that we've seen
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[SPEAKER_03]: places like Omaha and super regional environments where it really is best on best.
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[SPEAKER_03]: We've seen some of these super offensive heavy teams physical out because they don't have the ability to win a really tight game where the offense gets shut down by somebody's ace.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And the last several years, we can go back and play this game with names in specific.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But it feels like every year we get to Omaha and somebody goes out there and has a phenomenal pitching performance.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And the story is really rarely
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[SPEAKER_03]: X team went in one college world series because X offensive player got the job done.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It's funny one 14, baby.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It's happened, but it was a long, long time ago.
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[SPEAKER_03]: It's happened, but even in some of these like super offensive series, there is always a big pitching performance that I feel like you can call back to and say, that was one of the moments where the college world series was one or loss.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I think that
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[SPEAKER_03]: You know, Gage Woods performance last year really stand out and then go on to win the college world series.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But like that was what it took to get them to the point that they were at.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Anthony Iainson was spectacular.
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[SPEAKER_03]: That the college world series, Katie Anderson, who was our picture of the year, I mean, made his final case to be selected where he wasn't last year's draft.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So do I think that a team that plays really great offense like the Georgia's
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[SPEAKER_03]: can go super far, yes, because it's hard to keep up with them, but it takes one really good pitching performance to shut that team out and they don't know.
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[SPEAKER_03]: If they have the single pitcher, that's able to get them over the hump and hang in a series where some aces are going out and performing like it.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I'll just give one quote.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't take one.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It takes two of those performances.
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[SPEAKER_02]: That's what they can help for.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They can say like, hey, if you shut us down one game, there's no quite in the postseason, we're shutting us down for one game is enough.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And I'll add as well.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Like, this is the, this is the extremely cautious, statistically minded approach.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But to your point, you're not going to find a better offense in the country that went Georgia Tech is capable of doing it.
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[SPEAKER_03]: This is a team that has,
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[SPEAKER_03]: quite literally they've done this is not me you know speaking hyperbolicly this is a team that has quite literally eliminated 10 run deficits in games this season and gone on to win those battles.
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[SPEAKER_02]: When you average more than 10 runs a game a 10 nothing lead us like well with this is right where you know then if we just do what we normally do we can still win this game because we average more than 10 point we average 11 closer to 11 he's around up we average 11 runs per game the other probably
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[SPEAKER_02]: when they get into a regional or especially a super regional right and let's say they're facing an ace.
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[SPEAKER_02]: The other part of this is that it kind of is kind of echoes of, I would say major league baseball of a 15, 20 years ago.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, you're facing an ace and you're, I would say in that scenario, your job is to wear them down.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You want that ace leaving the game in the sixth because
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[SPEAKER_02]: You have so made them work, even if things shut you down.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You've so made them work that they're done after six innings and probably 110 pitches, 115, 120.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And then you're like, okay, we feel confident our ability to handle both of them.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But even if you don't,
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[SPEAKER_02]: You've made them do that first game.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They've given you their ace.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They've given you their best relievers.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And then you say, OK, now that that's off the board.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Now, OK, where it may have to come from behind, but we can just bludgeon you for two games.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You see the same thing, maybe.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, my, I, again, I just find that Georgia Tech line up to be utterly fascinating and utterly overwhelming.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But
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[SPEAKER_02]: That's where we're talking about postseason.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We need to, we need to actually take a step back here, and we still have a week of the regular season before conference tournament play, still ready to go for much of the country.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So with that in mind, after this quick break, we're going to take a look at who has the most to gain and who has the most to lose with a week to go.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And we're back.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So, Jacob.
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[SPEAKER_02]: When we look at this right now, we just got done having our mammoth field of 64 discussion.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And one of the things that really did jump out about that is, is that there are teams who, they can't, we just talked about Georgia Tech and Georgia, but like Georgia, we'll see, they have a big series this weekend, and it's Auburn that has all kinds of ramifications.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time, for both teams, the ramifications are, how high are you going to be seated in the national seats?
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[SPEAKER_02]: Let's pull back a little bit and look at some teams who have a little bit more like a little bit more tangible at risk this weekend coming up and I think we have to start with Arizona State goes to Houston and you don't want to say that the season's on the line because obviously it's not but
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[SPEAKER_02]: It comes pretty close for Arizona State for the Sun Devils.
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[SPEAKER_02]: How important is this weekend and getting a series went on the road?
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, it's critically important.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And I actually do think it's fair to say that the season could to some degree be on the line here for the Sun Devils.
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[SPEAKER_03]: They are 48th and RPI.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And if you're listening to this podcast, I would encourage you.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Go over to baseballamerica.com and pull up our field of 64 from May 12.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And you'll see on there.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Who we have in the field and who we don't, Arizona State has the lowest RPI of any team that we included as an at large qualifier for this year's tournament.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So what that means if you're new to all of this, there are 29 automatic bids.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Every conference will produce one team that has a direct path to the tournament via the conference tournament.
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[SPEAKER_03]: If the wind that and if the lead doesn't have a conference tournament, like the pack 12 of the past, if you win the regular season, you get the league's automatic bid.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Arizona State yet go ahead and and if you're if you're an independent, you know, I'm sorry, but you don't get to participate with it.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Right, which is why there are 29.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Once the packed 12 one away in Oregon State went independent, Oregon State qualifies as an at large qualifier, which is what we're talking about with Arizona State here.
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[SPEAKER_03]: At 48, that is not a secure spot to be in when it comes to tournament entries.
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[SPEAKER_03]: That is exactly the line typically.
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[SPEAKER_03]: especially for a conference like the Big 12 where the committee has his historically looked at a team in that range and gone, well, if we got to cut a team, if we got to create some space based on how things shake out on championship Sunday, if there are bid stolen, then a big 12 team in this RPI range would be first or one of the first on the chopping block.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But what makes this weekend so big for Arizona State is that conference record.
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[SPEAKER_03]: There's 17 in 10 right out in the Big 12 that's tied with UCF for third at the
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[SPEAKER_03]: If they lose this series too Houston, which currently sets a dead last in the big 12, I personally think Arizona State is on the outside looking in for the tournament, heading into the big 12 conference tournament where they can make up some ground again.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Let me be clear.
17:09.443 --> 17:19.517
[SPEAKER_02]: The only reason I said that their season is not on the line is not because I think that I think if they lose this series, it's pretty much impossible to see how they make it in as an
17:19.497 --> 17:48.103
[SPEAKER_02]: The only reason a season is over is you always still have that chance, much like teams who aren't even part of the at large discussion, hey, when you're turning it and you're in, but this does feel like must win as far as I want, you know, if you want an at large bit and the thing is is that it's complicated because RPI is one thing and the committee we know historically is going to look at RPI and infuse that into where they're going to place teams.
17:48.640 --> 17:58.473
[SPEAKER_02]: And when you say infuse like, okay, so as we're recording this, the college softball division one field of 64 was announced or field of, I think it's 60 per now and.
17:59.834 --> 18:14.513
[SPEAKER_02]: It correlated with RPI to a to a to what I will actually say 97 essentially do a frightening degree 90 said it was a 97% correlation between RPI and softball tournament seating for the division which is which I will tell you right now.
18:14.830 --> 18:15.832
[SPEAKER_02]: is wrong.
18:15.852 --> 18:16.133
[SPEAKER_02]: Correct.
18:17.055 --> 18:20.944
[SPEAKER_02]: It is 100%, it is, you are not doing your job properly.
18:21.324 --> 18:28.300
[SPEAKER_02]: If you are on the selection committee, we're just, I'm prepping this for two weeks for now, and it won't be as much a baseball hole, but.
18:28.347 --> 18:51.553
[SPEAKER_02]: If you are doing your work and you're saying that our PI basically, we could just do that and line it up and not fully understand how flawed RPI is we say this will record it in some a Monday and we know that the Tuesday slate for tomorrow will be cratered with cancellations because of the flaws of our PI and
18:52.445 --> 18:58.843
[SPEAKER_02]: If you don't approach it, understanding that, then I don't know why you're on the committee to be honest, but continue.
18:59.127 --> 19:06.257
[SPEAKER_03]: No, and it's true because I think that the committee has been implored for years to break away from RPI because of how Florida is.
19:06.657 --> 19:23.140
[SPEAKER_03]: And if you lose some of these midweek games, which, by the way, the NCAA has now come out discouraging the committee chair, Michael Alford, Florida State Athletic Director, has sent an email to coaches basically saying, we will attempt to penalize you if we catch you canceling games for RPI purposes.
19:23.901 --> 19:25.523
[SPEAKER_02]: If you don't want to use to happen,
19:25.840 --> 19:39.023
[SPEAKER_02]: The only way that that'll actually start happening is if, okay, we announced they announced the field of 64 two Mondays for now to record this right and when they say, okay, you're last your first for out right.
19:39.830 --> 19:57.889
[SPEAKER_02]: What does, well, in debt forever is like, yeah, we looked at this team, but you know what they canceled two games over the last week, two weeks or three weeks of the season and that wasn't weather to really cancel it and so we decided to leave them out because of that it has to be something where there's an actual
19:58.105 --> 20:10.702
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, not just a, oh, we're going to punish, but an actual tangible punishment where someone is the example of how this actually get you in trouble, because no one's gotten in trouble for it yet, have they?
20:11.923 --> 20:15.408
[SPEAKER_03]: Nobody, nobody that has been penalized for it in a way that's been discussed publicly.
20:15.428 --> 20:22.337
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think one of the things that you can look forward to at baseball America is after the selection committee announces the field of 64.
20:22.617 --> 20:25.581
[SPEAKER_03]: There is an opportunity for reporters to go and talk to.
20:25.561 --> 20:50.488
[SPEAKER_03]: Michael Alford via the phone and ask questions about how certain decisions were made by the committee one of my questions already on May 11 is how many teams and who were they were impacted by their decision to cancel a midweek game like that will be one of the things that I wonder because the reality is we don't have a lot of evidence that it has gotten in the way I wish I want to say one more thing sorry one more point on that though
20:50.722 --> 21:17.860
[SPEAKER_02]: And also, when you say this, they also said in the, they are monitoring it, because there is also the tricky part of this, which is, you have to make sure if you actually are going to punish for it, you have to, you have to become detective or meteorologist at the same time, because like when we are discussing even internally in Slack, like, oh, this game was canceled, like, actually I'm around here, the weather is pretty bad right now, this seems legit.
21:18.245 --> 21:35.747
[SPEAKER_02]: But I struggle to believe, I want to believe that the committee is actually going to do that work of like these games for legitimate cancellations or whether on that Tuesday these games seem a little bit iffy and we dug deeper into it and there isn't a logical explanation.
21:36.858 --> 22:04.705
[SPEAKER_03]: But color me a little bit skeptical that they're going to feel comfortable that they have 100% confidence that they have all that information for every cancellation that we're talking about there's just no way and I think that my takeaway from reading the email that was sent out by Michael offered I like the intention I like the idea that there should not be these cancellations late in the year to play the math and to you know influence your RPI one way or the other I can appreciate coming out and releasing a memo.
22:04.685 --> 22:09.006
[SPEAKER_03]: and having that be the sentiment that the committee is going to project to coaches.
22:09.408 --> 22:10.493
[SPEAKER_03]: That being said,
22:11.266 --> 22:13.668
[SPEAKER_03]: between you and I and everybody listening to this podcast.
22:14.169 --> 22:18.372
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that that is a little bit eye wash. We talk about it in slacks sometimes.
22:18.653 --> 22:21.815
[SPEAKER_03]: We give things the eye wash reading on a scale from 20 to 80.
22:22.196 --> 22:25.319
[SPEAKER_03]: To me, that is an 80 eye wash email.
22:25.359 --> 22:27.821
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that Michael Alford has done a lot of great stuff.
22:27.861 --> 22:36.989
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that his ideas about how we can be a little bit more inclusive as a we as a baseball community of mid majors that have deserving resumes for the tournament.
22:37.029 --> 22:41.273
[SPEAKER_03]: Last year, in 2025, he was not the committee chair
22:41.253 --> 22:48.522
[SPEAKER_03]: We saw the fewest at large bids to mid-majors in the history of the Super Regional Era, which was back to 1999.
22:48.602 --> 22:56.311
[SPEAKER_03]: I think Michael Alford came in immediately and said, we actually have a story about it at Baseball America, from this conversation, where he goes, that's not right.
22:56.571 --> 23:00.055
[SPEAKER_03]: We do need to consider more mid-majors and have representation.
23:00.075 --> 23:09.927
[SPEAKER_03]: So my point is not that he's doing a bad job, but I just don't see how you can reliably punish teams that are coming out and saying,
23:09.907 --> 23:19.158
[SPEAKER_03]: We're canceling a game because the weather is poor and then making a determination is to whether or not that hits a certain threshold of truth in order to be able to punish a team for it.
23:19.178 --> 23:20.139
[SPEAKER_03]: It doesn't work for me.
23:20.159 --> 23:33.855
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that it is a poor and flawed system, but I will say this one one more thing, if there has ever been a great wake-up call for everybody involved that we need to move away from RPI as a sport.
23:34.477 --> 23:35.058
[SPEAKER_03]: This is it.
23:35.519 --> 23:41.388
[SPEAKER_03]: You can't punish teams for playing the system that you have created and abide by.
23:41.688 --> 23:45.133
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think RPI kind of pigeons holds teams into making these kinds of decisions.
23:45.474 --> 23:50.201
[SPEAKER_03]: So again, for as much as I respect the email, and I think that it was a very long tensioned.
23:50.562 --> 23:55.269
[SPEAKER_03]: I have a hard time seeing how it's implemented and how it doesn't turn into something moving forward.
23:56.691 --> 24:02.340
[SPEAKER_02]: OK, I'll just point out, when you say like, how do you play meteorologists and figure this out?
24:02.725 --> 24:11.657
[SPEAKER_02]: There are some things that are simple, which is we have games that are being called and canceled like on Monday morning or earlier for Tuesday.
24:11.678 --> 24:15.883
[SPEAKER_02]: And then, okay, well, that's a little fishy in a song.
24:15.923 --> 24:26.699
[SPEAKER_02]: If you really want to get the game in, it's a little fishy if you're like, yeah, but it's really fishy when you look at and I'm not going to call out to you by name because I don't know the certain situation.
24:26.719 --> 24:31.365
[SPEAKER_02]: There could be something if simple as like, you know, a bus problem or whatever,
24:31.514 --> 24:53.269
[SPEAKER_02]: When you look at the weather and you say, oh, it says it's going to be 70, you know, sunny and 70 with a low of 45, you're like, okay, that doesn't seem like that's like weather that's going to really destroy anything, you know, but again, we will move on, but it is a flawed system and we will probably get back into that in a little while, but
24:53.823 --> 24:59.690
[SPEAKER_02]: looking at other key kind of, you know, weekend.
24:59.731 --> 25:13.728
[SPEAKER_02]: So conference USA is one where I feel like when we were talking, doing the field of 64 projections and all, that this is one where there's still a lot of uncertainty.
25:14.830 --> 25:16.111
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got Missouri State.
25:16.552 --> 25:18.074
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got Jacksonville State.
25:18.575 --> 25:22.800
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got Liberty who's kind of been in the
25:23.270 --> 25:25.963
[SPEAKER_02]: What kind of is still left to be seen?
25:26.004 --> 25:28.496
[SPEAKER_02]: What is left to who needs to do what?
25:28.697 --> 25:30.968
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you feel like in conference USA?
25:31.370 --> 25:38.120
[SPEAKER_03]: I just think that these teams can't go out in the final weekend of the regular season and you name the three that are going to be relevant.
25:38.140 --> 25:45.470
[SPEAKER_03]: And for a lack of better terms, below it, last week we saw Liberty play at home against Louisiana Tech and then lose two or three.
25:45.871 --> 25:46.612
[SPEAKER_03]: Cannot happen.
25:46.912 --> 25:49.676
[SPEAKER_03]: Cannot happen this weekend at middle Tennessee.
25:49.796 --> 25:51.158
[SPEAKER_03]: You're a big trouble if you're Liberty.
25:51.479 --> 25:54.643
[SPEAKER_02]: And you go lose winning those three games won't help you in our PI.
25:54.623 --> 26:09.645
[SPEAKER_03]: it will not help you at all if anything plain just the fact that the game will be played will hurt liberty in the RPI because it's a quad four series that does nothing for you at middle ten of c comes in at twenty four and twenty seven at the time of this conversation.
26:09.625 --> 26:10.966
[SPEAKER_03]: and RPI 220.
26:10.986 --> 26:14.069
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a pain if your liberties on liberties resonate.
26:14.129 --> 26:21.416
[SPEAKER_03]: That being said, the RPI, this point, borrowing losing that series is probably good enough to get into the tournament.
26:21.436 --> 26:26.420
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that liberty, Jacksonville State and Missouri State, Missouri State's RPI has just hung on.
26:26.740 --> 26:27.982
[SPEAKER_03]: They've hung tough all year.
26:28.342 --> 26:34.447
[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks to some really tough midweeks earlier on in the season, some tougher series earlier on in the series in the season.
26:34.868 --> 26:39.632
[SPEAKER_03]: I think those routines are reliably
26:39.612 --> 26:47.708
[SPEAKER_03]: If we've learned anything from the last couple years, it's that just sheer wind volume in that conference goes a really long way.
26:47.748 --> 26:55.984
[SPEAKER_03]: It's been the thing that's benefited Dallas Baptist for a number of years, by the way, Dallas Baptist is now going to miss the tournament, all of a sudden, which is not something that we can say very often.
26:55.964 --> 26:59.008
[SPEAKER_03]: But we've seen that it helped Dallas Baptist in the past.
26:59.028 --> 27:00.990
[SPEAKER_03]: We saw it helped Western Kentucky last year.
27:01.291 --> 27:03.854
[SPEAKER_03]: They finished the regular season with a ton of wins and poor metrics.
27:03.874 --> 27:05.696
[SPEAKER_03]: They still got into the tournament as a three seed.
27:06.077 --> 27:07.618
[SPEAKER_03]: I look at a team like Jacksonville State.
27:07.959 --> 27:11.643
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe not the most obvious two seed metrics in the country.
27:11.664 --> 27:13.926
[SPEAKER_03]: They're not dominant against quad one.
27:13.946 --> 27:16.650
[SPEAKER_03]: They're 30 second and RPI at the time of us talking about this.
27:16.970 --> 27:19.854
[SPEAKER_03]: But they are 22 and five in the league of 40 and 11 overall.
27:20.214 --> 27:23.338
[SPEAKER_03]: That's the kind of conference USA team in a league that is.
27:23.318 --> 27:25.181
[SPEAKER_03]: reasonably solid overall to me.
27:25.562 --> 27:27.365
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a pretty reliable two-seat projection.
27:27.385 --> 27:32.833
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's why you'll see them that way on our field of 64 and why I think that conference USA still stands strong as three teams.
27:33.314 --> 27:36.419
[SPEAKER_02]: And does have a win, Jackson, you know, also the Jackson State has a winning of St. Auburn.
27:36.499 --> 27:47.537
[SPEAKER_02]: Midweek, but a winning of St. Auburn is a very impressive thing to point on your resume when you say like, you know, because obviously Auburn is one of the the top ranked teams in the
27:48.614 --> 27:54.847
[SPEAKER_02]: The other team looking kind of on the mid major side first, then we'll get to the think that there's some ACC C to watch.
27:55.388 --> 28:00.379
[SPEAKER_02]: But layout takes a state and what is still to come for them.
28:00.646 --> 28:04.750
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, well, let's just actually zoom out for a second and talk about the sun belt at large.
28:04.770 --> 28:13.318
[SPEAKER_03]: I think the test state is kind of the key example of all of this, but this is a really chaotic conference with one week left in the regular season.
28:13.338 --> 28:15.139
[SPEAKER_03]: You have your main horses.
28:15.179 --> 28:18.162
[SPEAKER_03]: You've got coastal Carolina, which is coming off of a bad week.
28:18.182 --> 28:21.125
[SPEAKER_03]: They lose a home series two of three to old dominion.
28:21.565 --> 28:26.510
[SPEAKER_03]: Then you've got Southern Miss, which is a game behind in the conference standing, is what looking a lot prettier to host.
28:26.890 --> 28:30.113
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think that those two teams reliably in,
28:30.093 --> 28:36.680
[SPEAKER_02]: of a reliably and although coastal no team probably did themselves worse damage last week than coastal.
28:37.021 --> 28:41.306
[SPEAKER_03]: Sure, but but still reliable Kansas fuel and we're going to get there in a second.
28:41.326 --> 28:50.836
[SPEAKER_03]: We're also going to talk about coastal but the point in this part of our conversation is merely that coastal and southern myths are very reliably tournament teams right now.
28:50.916 --> 28:57.824
[SPEAKER_03]: They can absolutely they can lose every game the rest of the way between the final weekend and the conference tournament and they will still be in comfortably.
28:57.864 --> 28:59.526
[SPEAKER_03]: They won't even be in the last four.
28:59.506 --> 29:04.494
[SPEAKER_03]: Then you start to go through the conference standings and it is, like I said, a disaster.
29:04.935 --> 29:08.922
[SPEAKER_03]: The next highest RPIT is Texas State at 43.
29:08.982 --> 29:18.859
[SPEAKER_03]: They are currently tied with old Dominion and Marshall, number 95 and 175 in RPI for seventh in the conference.
29:19.379 --> 29:23.286
[SPEAKER_03]: Next closest would be RPI 49 Louisiana at six.
29:23.266 --> 29:36.639
[SPEAKER_03]: Then you've got Troy and South Alabama at 54 and 58 in RPI respectively tied for fourth and App State at 1611 in third and the league with an RPI just outside the top 100 at 101.
29:37.100 --> 29:38.103
[SPEAKER_03]: What is all of this to say?
29:38.704 --> 29:39.807
[SPEAKER_03]: Last year!
29:40.242 --> 29:43.888
[SPEAKER_03]: We saw Troy make a valiant push for the NCAA tournament.
29:43.908 --> 29:46.032
[SPEAKER_03]: It had an RPI just outside of the top 40.
29:46.072 --> 29:53.485
[SPEAKER_03]: It had, I believe it was 17 league wins at the time that regular season ends and they did not get in.
29:53.565 --> 29:58.774
[SPEAKER_03]: They were not even the last four teams, the first four teams out of the tournament.
29:59.328 --> 30:08.645
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that the Sunbelt Conference right now is in a lot of trouble as far as it goes for making more bids than just the two horses that we named at the beginning of this.
30:09.346 --> 30:14.695
[SPEAKER_03]: If there's going to be a team that gets in, Texas State is a pretty decent bet.
30:14.756 --> 30:15.657
[SPEAKER_03]: So it was Louisiana.
30:15.697 --> 30:21.167
[SPEAKER_03]: That 43 RPI is right on the cusp of a somewhat reliable location.
30:21.147 --> 30:24.573
[SPEAKER_03]: Plus, they end their regular season against Marshall, which is a series they should win.
30:24.613 --> 30:30.001
[SPEAKER_03]: And a midweek, a quad one midweek at UTSA, which will help their RPI even more.
30:30.081 --> 30:34.228
[SPEAKER_03]: So they've got to get about 500 in the conference, which would happen with a series win.
30:34.549 --> 30:37.333
[SPEAKER_03]: They probably need some work to be done in the Sunbelt tournament.
30:37.654 --> 30:40.919
[SPEAKER_03]: But that's the team to watch in that league right now.
30:41.720 --> 30:46.007
[SPEAKER_02]: Is the Sunbelt, though, like when you look at the quality of that conference?
30:47.219 --> 31:16.905
[SPEAKER_02]: should it deserve a little bit more like again I would say if you get a third team in there is some argument that they would be then getting a little bit of okay we're giving you credit for the conference but you look at it outside of the power 4 they are next in conference RPI and let's be honest they're not that far behind the big 10 and if you took you you know I would say that if you took the the the breadth of the big 10 I don't think
31:18.758 --> 31:23.124
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, we're seeing one of the best years for the big 10 that we've seen in a while.
31:23.164 --> 31:29.052
[SPEAKER_03]: I would even argue that, you know, the majority of the time, the sun belt is as good if not a better league, baseball wise.
31:29.453 --> 31:35.261
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that the strength of the sun belt this year is actually probably what's hurting at the most.
31:35.702 --> 31:39.527
[SPEAKER_03]: It's got a collection of good teams on the national picture.
31:39.587 --> 31:43.753
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think it has a collection of very good teams relative to the rest of the country.
31:43.733 --> 32:02.164
[SPEAKER_03]: but they're all good enough to basically beat up on each other at a minimum and you've got teams like old Dominion, which are not terribly attractive from an RPI or conference or overall records standpoint, but they've got enough talent and kind of that, you know, ex-grit factor to be able to go into a place like Conway.
32:02.144 --> 32:03.507
[SPEAKER_03]: and sneak out with a series wind.
32:03.768 --> 32:10.763
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a lot of that that goes on in the sun belt and it is at the end of the day the thing that's kind of the, you know, demise of a league like that.
32:10.803 --> 32:17.458
[SPEAKER_03]: That's what stuck them with two teams last year and based on the trend and the conference records below Southern Mission Coastal.
32:18.119 --> 32:20.625
[SPEAKER_03]: It kind of seems like that's where we're headed again this year.
32:21.938 --> 32:39.961
[SPEAKER_02]: So going back to the ACC for a minute, we talked about Georgia Tech, but Boston College, which I would say, when you talk about the grit factor, I would say that Boston College has been high up on the grit factor all year, but grit only takes you so far, and they've got Georgia Tech left.
32:40.041 --> 32:41.483
[SPEAKER_02]: Like what is,
32:42.712 --> 32:48.920
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't even need to say that if they managed to pull off a series win in that series, it would do wonders for them.
32:49.260 --> 32:54.747
[SPEAKER_02]: It would be one of the best resume series you can have on your schedule right now.
32:55.327 --> 33:09.985
[SPEAKER_02]: But looking at it the other way, assuming that Georgia Tech does what they should do, how damaging could that be or is the fact that BC is 17 and 10 in the conference right now,
33:10.235 --> 33:16.203
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think Boston College is pretty comfortably standing on its floor at the moment as far as it's turning a projection goes.
33:16.263 --> 33:19.828
[SPEAKER_03]: The number of wins it has in the ACC 1710.
33:19.848 --> 33:29.121
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a very strong showing in a good league.
33:29.101 --> 33:30.903
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, not bold well for you.
33:31.123 --> 33:42.395
[SPEAKER_03]: No, but it doesn't vote well for you in the sense that you're probably not going to consider this team as a host unless it goes out and sweep Georgia Tech at home and then maybe even has to go and winner gamer to in the ACC tournament.
33:42.415 --> 33:53.927
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that we can reliably project Boston college to be within the two seed picture and and probably pretty comfortably so well above that number 32 threshold where you transition out to the threes.
33:53.907 --> 33:55.108
[SPEAKER_03]: Is this the team that can host?
33:55.449 --> 33:56.250
[SPEAKER_03]: I'll go back that comment.
33:56.270 --> 33:58.432
[SPEAKER_03]: I made a second ago mathematically.
33:58.973 --> 34:06.082
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, if they can get to 20 ACC wins, which requires sweeping Georgia Tech at home, this is the team that's going to host.
34:06.182 --> 34:13.451
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think that a, you know, a Boston college that has 40 wins or 39 wins in the regular season.
34:13.511 --> 34:18.557
[SPEAKER_03]: And, you know, sweeps the number three team in the country to end the regular season and get to 20 conference wins.
34:18.897 --> 34:22.081
[SPEAKER_03]: The committee is not leaving that off of the host line.
34:22.101 --> 34:23.863
[SPEAKER_03]: How likely do I think that is?
34:24.198 --> 34:25.600
[SPEAKER_03]: respectfully not very likely at all.
34:25.660 --> 34:33.669
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think that we know kind of generally speaking where Boston College is at because losing this series doesn't have much impact in my mind.
34:35.711 --> 34:50.728
[SPEAKER_02]: So okay, what about we've got Arkansas at Kentucky and some important series for both teams is it more important for one of the two or is it, how do you see that one shaping up?
34:51.029 --> 34:55.617
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I don't really know that Arkansas has a lot of room to move into the hosting picture at this point.
34:55.637 --> 34:58.842
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that it's conference record makes the case pretty appealing.
34:59.323 --> 35:14.488
[SPEAKER_03]: If it gets to 17 SEC wins, which would be a series against Kentucky, it's a conversation, but you know, as we talked about with Ole Miss, for example, when we were doing our latest poll, our latest field, I mean,
35:14.468 --> 35:16.110
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not that cut and dry.
35:16.210 --> 35:21.939
[SPEAKER_03]: Ole Miss is 13th in RPI right now in their 14th and 13th game back compared to Arkansas, the SEC standings.
35:21.959 --> 35:23.421
[SPEAKER_03]: We have them as the 17th seed.
35:24.042 --> 35:30.310
[SPEAKER_03]: There are a lot of good teams around the hosting bubble at that 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 18th, range.
35:30.331 --> 35:35.858
[SPEAKER_03]: Does beating a Kentucky team that is very much a three seed profile at the moment?
35:36.379 --> 35:38.082
[SPEAKER_03]: Is that what gets you over the hump if you're Arkansas?
35:38.482 --> 35:39.023
[SPEAKER_03]: Probably not.
35:39.143 --> 35:40.365
[SPEAKER_03]: Is it losing it?
35:40.565 --> 35:42.408
[SPEAKER_03]: Is that going to push you away from being a two seed?
35:42.908 --> 35:44.070
[SPEAKER_03]: Also probably not.
35:44.050 --> 35:45.092
[SPEAKER_03]: for Kentucky though.
35:45.613 --> 35:48.437
[SPEAKER_03]: You absolutely cannot get swept this weekend.
35:48.578 --> 35:53.546
[SPEAKER_03]: If you get swept this weekend, I actually think that Kentucky will be going to Hoover with something to play for.
35:53.606 --> 35:54.808
[SPEAKER_03]: There would need to win some games.
35:55.229 --> 36:05.586
[SPEAKER_03]: And there's also this, you know, living cloud of what does game cancellation in the midweek duty, because Kentucky did just cancel a midweek or they're planning to cancel a midweek.
36:06.697 --> 36:11.123
[SPEAKER_03]: is that the kind of series or cancellation that puts you in trouble.
36:11.143 --> 36:14.327
[SPEAKER_03]: So I'll up curious to see if that Northern Kentucky game happens.
36:15.308 --> 36:17.912
[SPEAKER_03]: They may or may not have already announced the cancellation is over recording this.
36:18.412 --> 36:23.078
[SPEAKER_03]: And of course, you have to win at least a game to get to 13 conference ones if you want to feel good.
36:24.400 --> 36:25.702
[SPEAKER_02]: I will say this right now.
36:27.144 --> 36:32.130
[SPEAKER_02]: It is hard for me to kind of fully fathom.
36:32.600 --> 36:36.786
[SPEAKER_02]: By the way, checking us, we were doing it right now, nor the Kentucky still on the schedule as of right now on the...
36:36.806 --> 36:37.187
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, there you go.
36:37.707 --> 36:43.015
[SPEAKER_02]: So, but 12 wins coming out of the regular season.
36:43.055 --> 36:46.540
[SPEAKER_02]: And I know that, yes, you could win some games in the conference tournament at all.
36:46.560 --> 36:49.084
[SPEAKER_02]: But when you say, you can't be swept.
36:50.265 --> 36:55.633
[SPEAKER_02]: 12 and 18, 12 and 18 and 30 and 21.
36:56.013 --> 36:59.198
[SPEAKER_02]: Assuming no Tuesday game, let's just say for the second, right now.
37:00.983 --> 37:13.955
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not saying, look, Kentucky made not only made it in with 13 and 17, but like to our shock wasn't even like mentioned as among the teams that were, you know, that just barely slid through the door last year.
37:14.555 --> 37:22.122
[SPEAKER_02]: But I would just struggle to make the argument that 12 and 18 should be sufficient.
37:22.763 --> 37:24.204
[SPEAKER_02]: Now I'm not saying you're wrong.
37:24.525 --> 37:25.425
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not in any way.
37:25.485 --> 37:30.450
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you are not wrong at all.
37:30.683 --> 37:44.076
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm making the case that the conference schedule supposed to mean something, and 12 and 18 is not that you were just one bouncing ball away from a 500 records to a record.
37:44.536 --> 37:47.099
[SPEAKER_02]: That's you are two full series down.
37:47.239 --> 37:47.820
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
37:47.840 --> 37:48.440
[SPEAKER_02]: That would be a lot.
37:48.941 --> 37:54.186
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a lot, but I think that the committee has put itself in this position, just based on what it's done over the last couple of years.
37:54.246 --> 37:56.488
[SPEAKER_03]: And I've set this on the podcast before, but
37:57.025 --> 37:59.869
[SPEAKER_03]: How many teams do you think J.J. have missed the tournament?
38:00.390 --> 38:06.780
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, since from 2023 and on, how many 13 win SEC teams do you think have missed the tournament?
38:06.800 --> 38:08.342
[SPEAKER_02]: I actually was doing some work on this.
38:08.423 --> 38:10.646
[SPEAKER_02]: I know you probably already have in the middle of the top of your head.
38:10.766 --> 38:13.991
[SPEAKER_02]: But what they're won, I think since zero.
38:14.051 --> 38:17.937
[SPEAKER_03]: There has not been a 13 win SEC since 2023 to miss the tournament.
38:17.957 --> 38:21.042
[SPEAKER_03]: The last one was South Carolina in 2022.
38:21.815 --> 38:30.570
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, 2022, there were 69 RPI and they were 27 and 28, which means that they're not even, you know, sub 500 record, sub 500 record.
38:30.590 --> 38:31.612
[SPEAKER_03]: There was no argument for them.
38:32.293 --> 38:36.560
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think that the committee reverses course for a team like Kentucky.
38:36.620 --> 38:42.750
[SPEAKER_03]: That is well positioned in the RPI that has the record overall record to get in.
38:43.071 --> 38:43.131
[SPEAKER_03]: The
38:43.111 --> 39:03.993
[SPEAKER_03]: The benchmark for that, by the way, you want to talk about something that's like a real problem the committee has created for itself two years ago in 2024 Florida was an at large team in the tournament and they finished regular season a game about 500 so the reality is the threshold for what it takes to get in as an SEC team is exceptionally low and I don't I would say it's back.
39:05.315 --> 39:06.896
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, I'll be provocative now.
39:08.718 --> 39:10.300
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the SEC.
39:10.972 --> 39:15.999
[SPEAKER_02]: is getting a little bit too much credit for what was really true.
39:16.039 --> 39:29.056
[SPEAKER_02]: I would say like in that 21, 22-time frame where it was like, okay, I think the SEC had a stretch there where they could rightfully say, look, everyone in this conference is good.
39:29.817 --> 39:32.220
[SPEAKER_02]: And so every weekend we beat up each other.
39:33.331 --> 39:50.894
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not true right now and we're going to I think it's a perfect segue to Vanderbilt who lost the series to Missouri and whether Vanderbilt that whether that basically means that Vandy is now are they SEC tournament and or bust to get in but I just want to start with.
39:52.056 --> 40:02.950
[SPEAKER_02]: We've had two years in a row now because last year was part of this too, but we've had two years in a row where South Carolina and Missouri and I know that not everyone plays both of them, but if you do.
40:04.178 --> 40:10.144
[SPEAKER_02]: that those two teams have been a clear basement to the SEC.
40:10.885 --> 40:14.990
[SPEAKER_02]: And really kind of lay out like here are fought.
40:15.010 --> 40:22.798
[SPEAKER_02]: If you play both of them realistically, if you are even in the cusp of a tournament discussion, that's five and one.
40:23.599 --> 40:26.322
[SPEAKER_02]: Five and one there, take that and compare it.
40:26.362 --> 40:32.869
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not saying that the SEC this year is better than the SEC, I'm not saying that.
40:33.490 --> 40:41.959
[SPEAKER_02]: I do not think that playing Duke or playing Clemson is in any way the same equivalent as facing Missouri or South Carolina.
40:42.480 --> 40:45.643
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are the weakest teams that you face in the ACC.
40:46.204 --> 40:56.615
[SPEAKER_02]: But we also, we both know, the ACC is not gonna get credit where it's like, well, if you're a few games under 500 in conference, considering the strength of your conference.
40:56.635 --> 40:58.857
[SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, add to that,
40:59.377 --> 41:05.163
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, the SEC's been great, but the ACC's winning percentage in the tournament last year was right there with it.
41:05.324 --> 41:12.411
[SPEAKER_02]: And when you look at the percentage of teams going to supers, better in the ACC last year in the SEC.
41:12.852 --> 41:19.079
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't think that there's like the SEC at 13 teams last year make it to the tournament and the ACC at nine.
41:19.499 --> 41:20.180
[SPEAKER_02]: That's still a lot.
41:20.941 --> 41:27.308
[SPEAKER_02]: But when you look at supers, those four in the SEC five for the ACC, when you look at Omaha, it was two and one.
41:27.406 --> 41:39.925
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't, I'm not, again, I'm not saying that the ACC is better than the SEC, I'm saying that this perception that the SEC remains at a just in a different world than everyone else.
41:40.146 --> 41:42.109
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like it's a little bit maybe overdone.
41:42.770 --> 41:55.810
[SPEAKER_02]: When we have a time that they have two teams in it who are not the kind of team that you're like, oh, a losing a series to them is not,
41:56.768 --> 42:10.566
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, but at the same time, it's like, then you go and you project 11 or 12 or 13 SEC teams in the field because the competition is just that good and and I do actually wonder, you know, how does a Missouri perform?
42:10.806 --> 42:14.811
[SPEAKER_03]: If you go and you put it into into the ACC, how does a South Carolina perform?
42:14.851 --> 42:19.958
[SPEAKER_03]: Like I've talked to some coaches this year that are face Missouri and this isn't just limited to the SEC, but
42:19.938 --> 42:35.003
[SPEAKER_03]: I've had a number of coaches comment to me that, you know, Missouri could be a real pest Missouri's got some real town like I've I've heard those things a number of times this year, so yes, you think Missouri had to head 10 times, I think that's an impressive series.
42:35.424 --> 42:40.292
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I probably have a clip clips in as well, but but I would I guess my point is just like I don't know that.
42:40.677 --> 42:44.826
[SPEAKER_03]: Even though Missouri is the door mat of the SEC, I don't know that that's a slouchy weekend.
42:45.407 --> 42:57.032
[SPEAKER_03]: Still still that being said if you're Vanderbilt and and you're sitting on 10 SEC wins going into the final two weeks of the season and you've got Missouri and you've got South Carolina.
42:57.012 --> 43:03.741
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, guess what, like you, you have to be able to go in with those series, like, and not only win them, but probably sweep one of them.
43:04.262 --> 43:12.113
[SPEAKER_03]: And when you lose it, which is what Vanderbilt did, they lose one of those two or three in Columbia, that's a season ender.
43:12.153 --> 43:24.150
[SPEAKER_02]: For me, even with less acknowledge, even with one of the strangest plays that we will probably see this year, where the home run slash ground rule,
43:24.755 --> 43:28.621
[SPEAKER_02]: everyone kind of has to kind of shrug their shoulders and say, I don't know what happened there.
43:29.282 --> 43:32.867
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, that's, but that's just the way that the ball bounces that.
43:32.887 --> 43:39.877
[SPEAKER_03]: And it's unfortunate, like I think that I think that, you know, if you're, if you're Vanderbilt, you're really angry about how that game went down.
43:39.897 --> 43:48.630
[SPEAKER_03]: In fact, that there wasn't some sort of empowering, you know, involvement earlier on in the game or whatever the case may be handled it differently.
43:48.770 --> 43:53.918
[SPEAKER_03]: Somehow, you're definitely wishing that that happened, but at the same time,
43:54.151 --> 44:00.460
[SPEAKER_03]: the game probably shouldn't have been as close as it was for that to be so influential to the outcome considering who was playing who in the stakes.
44:01.221 --> 44:03.805
[SPEAKER_03]: And at the same time, you know, you can call whatever you want.
44:03.945 --> 44:07.770
[SPEAKER_03]: Bad luck, bad on piring, bad rules.
44:07.950 --> 44:08.551
[SPEAKER_03]: It doesn't matter.
44:08.591 --> 44:10.053
[SPEAKER_03]: The loss is a loss.
44:10.454 --> 44:11.696
[SPEAKER_03]: It goes down that way on paper.
44:12.136 --> 44:18.285
[SPEAKER_03]: And when resumes get printed, there's no, there's no aspect that says you lost ball in the fog.
44:18.805 --> 44:24.314
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, so eat, but let's also say that's the that's the Friday game that carried over into Saturday.
44:25.215 --> 44:34.290
[SPEAKER_02]: But that doesn't have anything to do with the Sunday game, which was also an L. And that's the one that was really kind of the the crushing what if they had gone to in one in this series.
44:35.191 --> 44:36.814
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think we'd be talking about the same way.
44:37.604 --> 44:50.871
[SPEAKER_03]: No, we wouldn't be, and we actually said that, you know, going into that, we had that conversation when we were doing our field of 64, Jeff Potts, and I have this conversation last week on the podcast, if you go and you win two games on the road at Missouri.
44:51.037 --> 45:01.958
[SPEAKER_03]: The one loss is not going to be the thing that sinks your season, the thing that sinks your season if you're Vanderbilt is going to Columbia, Missouri, and losing two of three games, regardless of how low the visibility was.
45:02.058 --> 45:08.430
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think it's very clear to me that this was a situation where if you're Vanderbilt, you needed two or three wins to keep your season alive.
45:08.851 --> 45:12.538
[SPEAKER_03]: And now, borrowing will run that includes an SEC tournament.
45:12.518 --> 45:16.362
[SPEAKER_03]: at a minimum championship appearance if not a victory outright.
45:16.382 --> 45:23.530
[SPEAKER_03]: I just don't see how a team that is barely clinging to a top 75 RPI is one that you can let into the tournament if you're the committee.
45:24.331 --> 45:25.212
[SPEAKER_02]: And there we go.
45:25.392 --> 45:34.423
[SPEAKER_02]: We're back to RPI because again, we are saying like if George if if Vanderbilt sweeps South Carolina so we can they will be 14 and 16 in conference, which is not great.
45:34.483 --> 45:39.268
[SPEAKER_02]: We're not saying it's great, but we just laid out that literally that would be
45:39.451 --> 45:42.556
[SPEAKER_03]: I actually I come with breaking news ready for this.
45:42.937 --> 45:45.501
[SPEAKER_03]: This is breaking news to you while recording the podcast.
45:45.521 --> 45:49.267
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're listening to this, it's going to sound not that exciting because it's already after its public.
45:49.567 --> 45:54.034
[SPEAKER_03]: But the Kentucky northern Kentucky game is not happening.
45:54.495 --> 45:55.857
[SPEAKER_03]: It has been really.
45:55.837 --> 46:00.368
[SPEAKER_03]: It is, it is not canceled at the time where we are talking about this and it's not canceled.
46:00.408 --> 46:06.944
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're listening to this, you now know that that game is canceled because it's been canceled for about 24 hours.
46:06.984 --> 46:13.018
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're listening to this at about 510-515 Eastern Time on on Tuesday, May 12th.
46:15.023 --> 46:17.929
[SPEAKER_02]: but so we said Vanderbilt would be 14 and 16 then.
46:18.470 --> 46:23.080
[SPEAKER_02]: And we just laid out that no SEC qualifying SEC team, right?
46:23.420 --> 46:25.785
[SPEAKER_02]: Gotta have a winning record period.
46:25.805 --> 46:33.100
[SPEAKER_02]: No one had been left out with fewer than with at least 13 wins since then, so 22.
46:34.193 --> 46:38.180
[SPEAKER_02]: But we're saying you're saying because of RPI, you don't think that that would be sufficient for a bandian.
46:38.341 --> 46:40.384
[SPEAKER_03]: No, I don't think it would be sufficient at all.
46:40.504 --> 46:48.719
[SPEAKER_03]: And part of the reason, you put the overall record aside for a second, part of the reason that South Carolina didn't make the tournament in 2022 was because the RPI was just so bad.
46:48.759 --> 46:51.865
[SPEAKER_03]: And we've seen last year that, you know,
46:51.845 --> 46:53.669
[SPEAKER_03]: Here's the big, let me back up for a second.
46:53.689 --> 47:00.442
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that the biggest problem that the committee brings on to itself is that it seems to pick and choose when RPI is really important.
47:00.462 --> 47:11.423
[SPEAKER_03]: Last year RPI wasn't super important when it came to talking about Xavier, but it was extremely important when it came to talking about whether or not Kentucky should have been one of the last four teams into the field and it wasn't.
47:11.403 --> 47:22.838
[SPEAKER_03]: this year, we're going to have to have a conversation about whether or not Arizona states RPI is in range to get into the tournament, despite having more than enough wins overall inside the conference to be able to get in.
47:23.098 --> 47:27.504
[SPEAKER_03]: With Vanderbilt, there are two things that work against Vandy here.
47:28.005 --> 47:32.591
[SPEAKER_03]: One is you have the losing weekend to Missouri at the end of the season.
47:32.611 --> 47:39.840
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that that is the perfect excuse for the committee when the question gets asked in
47:39.820 --> 47:41.221
[SPEAKER_03]: Why isn't Vanderbilt in the field?
47:41.261 --> 47:48.228
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, if you're the committee chair, if you're Michael Loughford and you sit down on the phone, you go, well, they lost him Missouri in the second last week in the regular season.
47:48.588 --> 47:52.112
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know how many people are hearing that and coming back and going, what are you talking about?
47:52.132 --> 47:54.093
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a crazy decision.
47:54.294 --> 47:54.934
[SPEAKER_03]: You've got a song?
47:55.154 --> 47:57.377
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, it was the possible to read all the walls.
47:57.417 --> 48:02.702
[SPEAKER_03]: Right, yeah, you could play the fun game all you want, but it's like, how many people are really gonna go for that excuse?
48:03.002 --> 48:09.608
[SPEAKER_03]: If Missouri, if you say Vanity didn't get in because it lost to Missouri, I think a lot of people are gonna go for that.
48:09.689 --> 48:29.435
[SPEAKER_03]: Do I think that Derga, is it going to be harder to explain, including Vanderbilt this moment, the best way to put it, is it harder to explain, including Vanderbilt in the field at 14 wins and an RPI that's outside of 70 or is it harder to explain, leaving them out of the field at 14 conference wins and RPI outside the top 70 and having lost Missouri.
48:29.655 --> 48:31.097
[SPEAKER_03]: I personally choose to believe the latter.
48:31.958 --> 48:34.161
[SPEAKER_02]: I completely agree a few because I would say this.
48:34.934 --> 48:39.160
[SPEAKER_02]: No one is, if you are listening to the committee, you're in your route.
48:39.600 --> 48:46.029
[SPEAKER_02]: No one is coming away saying, you know, who just doesn't get a fair shake in the field of 64.
48:47.090 --> 48:49.854
[SPEAKER_02]: Man, if the SEC just ever got a fair shake.
48:49.994 --> 48:55.862
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you're saying, because what you would be saying there is is that everything we've set is important that we're,
48:56.180 --> 49:06.365
[SPEAKER_02]: If you get Vanderbilt in with an RP on the 70s, I promise you you are leaving out a team that had an above 500 conference record significantly better RPI.
49:06.425 --> 49:08.991
[SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, we should lay out better RPI.
49:09.950 --> 49:16.221
[SPEAKER_02]: and probably in a area where it's much harder to have a better RPI than Vanderbilt in that area.
49:16.241 --> 49:16.561
[SPEAKER_03]: Sure.
49:17.403 --> 49:26.899
[SPEAKER_03]: And the other thing that I think is like, just the most glaring aspect of all of this, we're talking about Vanderbilt that has the 73rd RPI right now.
49:27.400 --> 49:30.726
[SPEAKER_03]: There are three so-con teams.
49:30.706 --> 49:35.833
[SPEAKER_03]: three so-contimes that have better RPIs at the moment than Vanderbilt does.
49:35.913 --> 49:44.045
[SPEAKER_03]: So to anybody listening to this, that is saying to yourself, well, they play the toughest schedule and they have to play in the Vaunted SEC all true.
49:44.465 --> 49:51.595
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think JJ nor I are sitting here and arguing with you that they have to play a tough schedule in their paths at this point is difficult.
49:51.615 --> 49:54.199
[SPEAKER_03]: But when you've got teams like
49:54.179 --> 50:08.719
[SPEAKER_03]: Mercer and Western Carolina and the Citadel and very nearly, by the way, very nearly 13 spots East Tennessee State in the same RPI conversation and we know that the committee is going to lean on RPI.
50:08.919 --> 50:21.216
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't see how, if you are a committee member, you could look your fellow deciders of the field in the face and go, I think Vandervilt is one of the 64 best options to compete for a national championship.
50:21.314 --> 50:26.562
[SPEAKER_02]: To summarize one other thing, as it stands right now, eight Q1 and Q2 wins combined.
50:26.862 --> 50:32.912
[SPEAKER_02]: That is the part I think of the discussion for them, that kind of like they won't go there.
50:32.932 --> 50:41.685
[SPEAKER_02]: They won't get to that point, but like that is the point where you're like, okay, why are we talking, you know, at that point, that's gonna be difficult for them.
50:42.104 --> 50:50.874
[SPEAKER_03]: Sure, but at the same time, it's also like how much further does the conversation go beyond and all respect to care of Jackson and the child's he has to do this at the very end of the team.
50:50.894 --> 50:56.780
[SPEAKER_03]: How exactly and how much further does the conversation go then you needed wins badly.
50:56.941 --> 51:01.966
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a critical moment in your season and you dropped the ball against the worst team in the SEC.
51:01.986 --> 51:03.688
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think I can get much further than that.
51:04.449 --> 51:05.650
[SPEAKER_02]: So we're not done yet.
51:05.750 --> 51:07.632
[SPEAKER_02]: We still have a little bit more we want to cover.
51:07.733 --> 51:11.757
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to talk about coastal Carolina and Cam Fluki right after the second thing.
51:14.183 --> 51:28.699
[SPEAKER_02]: So Jacob, we talked about it a little bit earlier, but we came in last week that last week in our collective field of 64 coastal Carolina and Kansas were both number one seats and both firmly entrenched number ones.
51:29.843 --> 51:34.210
[SPEAKER_02]: This week, they hit the big down escalator.
51:35.473 --> 51:36.494
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll start with coastal.
51:37.336 --> 51:38.017
[SPEAKER_02]: You talked about it.
51:38.037 --> 51:40.842
[SPEAKER_02]: They lost the series to Old Dominion, which you just can't do.
51:41.623 --> 51:50.518
[SPEAKER_02]: But I would say like if you also look, we have given, as we should, I think credit to coastal Carolina all year for figuring out ways to win.
51:50.617 --> 51:55.747
[SPEAKER_02]: despite a multitude of injuries and missing players because of that and all that.
51:55.787 --> 51:57.250
[SPEAKER_02]: They lost fluke for most of the year.
51:57.310 --> 52:00.696
[SPEAKER_02]: They're weekend rotation that we thought was going to be one of the best in the country.
52:01.117 --> 52:05.164
[SPEAKER_02]: We've never got to see it kind of all put together for any week of the season.
52:05.185 --> 52:08.170
[SPEAKER_02]: They keep figuring out a way to win series, win weekends.
52:08.711 --> 52:13.941
[SPEAKER_02]: Even though they almost never have that for an a week, the way it's like, well, they just look dominant.
52:15.119 --> 52:21.547
[SPEAKER_02]: But here they are, they felt it kind of, I feel like kind of like, in an opportune time.
52:21.567 --> 52:23.870
[SPEAKER_02]: They do not have a whole lot of time to build this back up.
52:25.593 --> 52:29.658
[SPEAKER_02]: How worried should you be if you're a coastal fan?
52:30.058 --> 52:42.915
[SPEAKER_02]: And more than that, let me'll get into, like, how worried are you if you are like, okay, because I do think the path through the postseason does ride on Cameron Flooky being back to some form of what we saw last year.
52:43.537 --> 52:43.998
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
52:44.018 --> 52:48.510
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, from a level of concern standpoint, I think that there's two ways to interpret the question.
52:48.971 --> 52:55.808
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it's like on one hand, are we talking about conservative relative to, yeah, you totally could go.
52:55.948 --> 52:59.858
[SPEAKER_03]: Like if you're a coastal fan, you've got nothing to worry about as far as entry into the field.
52:59.838 --> 53:12.060
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're a coastal fan and your expectation is that this team is going to go and avenge a national championship series loss and make a run back to that part of the year, yeah, I think you have some some things to be concerned about.
53:12.401 --> 53:17.831
[SPEAKER_03]: If you think that coastal is a clear shot to get to a super this year, I think you have some things to worry about.
53:17.851 --> 53:21.998
[SPEAKER_03]: This is looking like a two seed, you know, there are some losses.
53:22.940 --> 53:23.941
[SPEAKER_03]: Vandy at Missouri.
53:25.022 --> 53:27.845
[SPEAKER_03]: Alabama had it lost this weekend at South Carolina.
53:28.586 --> 53:33.150
[SPEAKER_03]: Coastal let home against Old Dominion that you just can't afford.
53:33.851 --> 53:34.632
[SPEAKER_03]: It doesn't work.
53:34.672 --> 53:44.742
[SPEAKER_03]: And for a team that is not in the power, conference structure, doesn't have that SEC protection that we were just talking about, whether or not you agree, and that's actually important to say.
53:45.242 --> 53:46.664
[SPEAKER_03]: This is whether or not you agree with it.
53:46.904 --> 53:52.069
[SPEAKER_03]: Like we, we, you meet JJ, we don't necessarily agree with
53:52.049 --> 53:57.897
[SPEAKER_03]: a 12 and 18 SEC team being one that you have to really think long and hard about whether or not it's going to get into the field.
53:58.318 --> 54:00.321
[SPEAKER_03]: We don't agree with it, but it is also the way that it is.
54:00.801 --> 54:02.924
[SPEAKER_03]: And part of the way that it is, right, it's reality.
54:02.944 --> 54:11.877
[SPEAKER_03]: And part of the way that it is is that if you're coastal, you cannot lose series to old dominion and this late in the season and still expect to host.
54:11.897 --> 54:13.579
[SPEAKER_03]: It's way too much of an RPI hit.
54:13.900 --> 54:20.689
[SPEAKER_03]: It's way too much of just a sheer non-metrics resume
54:20.669 --> 54:33.242
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, again, to answer your question is if the level of concern is, I'm concerned that we're not going to host, yeah, I think that that's a pretty fair concern to have it a reasonably elevated level at this point because that is going to be hard to come back from.
54:35.404 --> 54:47.757
[SPEAKER_02]: So what does that mean for this weekend for them?
54:48.563 --> 54:53.412
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, they do, and I think that this week is big because of who they're playing as well.
54:53.432 --> 54:55.255
[SPEAKER_03]: Louisiana is not a slouchy opponent.
54:55.275 --> 54:59.262
[SPEAKER_03]: We mentioned them during the Texas State, you know, rest of the Sunbelt conversation.
54:59.302 --> 55:03.670
[SPEAKER_03]: That is a team that is in a position to
55:03.650 --> 55:07.737
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe compete its way off of the bubble if things go perfectly.
55:07.817 --> 55:11.664
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, that would technically start with a series with over Coastal.
55:11.684 --> 55:17.394
[SPEAKER_03]: And if you do that near Louisiana, there's probably a really good case to get a team like that into the field of 64.
55:18.055 --> 55:21.321
[SPEAKER_03]: While Coastal Carolina would be completely cemented to a two-seed.
55:21.301 --> 55:26.487
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're coastal and you win this series, does it put you back above the top 16 seeds?
55:26.928 --> 55:27.909
[SPEAKER_03]: No, I don't get does.
55:28.229 --> 55:29.631
[SPEAKER_03]: The RPI is out of range.
55:29.972 --> 55:32.755
[SPEAKER_03]: This is not strong enough whole weekend to be able to do that for you.
55:33.155 --> 55:36.900
[SPEAKER_03]: But is it the path to maybe fixing it via the conference tournament?
55:37.621 --> 55:38.322
[SPEAKER_03]: I can see that.
55:38.422 --> 55:39.663
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think it's terribly likely.
55:40.304 --> 55:45.831
[SPEAKER_03]: Like I think that we just saw coastal, you know, hosting chances to fizzle the way as that series did.
55:45.911 --> 55:47.713
[SPEAKER_03]: But is there still a path?
55:47.693 --> 55:48.475
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, of course.
55:48.535 --> 55:51.681
[SPEAKER_03]: And obviously, that will start this weekend when you have a team like Louisiana and town.
55:53.324 --> 56:03.263
[SPEAKER_02]: So that is kind of like the other one we want to talk about is Kansas also had a very in opportunity weekend for them.
56:04.105 --> 56:09.415
[SPEAKER_02]: How did this series lost for Kansas affect kind of their postseason
56:10.289 --> 56:35.402
[SPEAKER_03]: In fact, their postseason picture, I think that if you're a team like Kansas or Ole Miss or West Virginia, it impacted several teams postseason pictures right now because the reality was, as you said, a couple minutes ago, Kansas was a really sure host team prior to this weekend and I think that that allowed for a non big 12 to be in the hosting line and that was a team like Ole Miss.
56:35.382 --> 57:02.335
[SPEAKER_03]: Now you have a team in Ole Miss that I think is grappling with whether or not it's able to get past a team like West Virginia, which, if we're going to play kind of our, our fortune telling cards, the conversation that we had with Michael Alford before the season would indicate that he would give a team from the big 12.
57:03.226 --> 57:19.277
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean like let me just be clear this is a national sport this is not a sport only played in one area of the country if you said from a simple there should be rewards like it is tougher
57:19.375 --> 57:21.979
[SPEAKER_02]: Look, I want to give all credit to the SEC.
57:22.420 --> 57:34.277
[SPEAKER_02]: The SEC has done a ton to make this to make it a parent that college baseball can be done right in the right markets can be a revenue sport.
57:34.458 --> 57:35.539
[SPEAKER_02]: You can draw fans.
57:35.639 --> 57:40.266
[SPEAKER_02]: It is not just something that, OK, a couple of people show up to.
57:40.387 --> 57:47.357
[SPEAKER_02]: It is something that fans can passionately care about, pack stadiums, all that.
57:47.489 --> 57:50.373
[SPEAKER_02]: It's also been laid out a thousand times over the last 30 years.
57:50.473 --> 57:58.663
[SPEAKER_02]: How difficult it is to succeed and build a program in a colder weather climate in college baseball.
57:58.683 --> 58:00.545
[SPEAKER_02]: You have a lot of things working against you.
58:00.966 --> 58:05.671
[SPEAKER_02]: And when you do that well, which is something that was Virginia, let's just be clear, has done repeatedly.
58:05.691 --> 58:10.257
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not just one year, but they've had kind of a nice stretch of success.
58:11.418 --> 58:14.784
[SPEAKER_02]: That should be rewarded more than the 19 from the SEC.
58:15.044 --> 58:19.431
[SPEAKER_02]: Like when it comes to those kind of decisions, maybe that's unfair, maybe that's not something they should factor in.
58:19.511 --> 58:27.705
[SPEAKER_02]: But like you said, coming into this year, they kind of said, we do want to make that at least a factor on discussions that would seem like.
58:29.018 --> 58:43.635
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think that that's, you know, pretty reasonable to say, I look, I think that if you're West Virginia, you feel like you're studying pretty because you're just not to host out of the hosting picture and I think that it's a pretty easy one for one, you know,
58:43.767 --> 58:44.689
[SPEAKER_03]: Proposition here.
58:44.869 --> 58:45.871
[SPEAKER_03]: You knock out Kansas.
58:45.932 --> 58:46.894
[SPEAKER_03]: You take Kansas spot.
58:47.315 --> 58:54.349
[SPEAKER_03]: Do I think that it puts a team like Ole Miss in a weird position where the committee will have to choose against RPI for one of the hosting spots?
58:54.790 --> 59:03.649
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, probably because I don't know that West Virginia has the scheduled juice remaining to jump a team like Ole Miss that has SEC games in the SEC tournament, but
59:04.203 --> 59:14.513
[SPEAKER_03]: I would I would also agree that you want to maybe put one big 12 team over a eighth or ninth SEC and what's Virginia would make the most sense and and you know to go back to the original point.
59:14.994 --> 59:23.822
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're a miss you were wishing that Kansas took care of business at home and stayed above the host line because it doesn't create this murky situation where a team from behind you gets to jump in above.
59:24.343 --> 59:27.446
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, that's a perfect thing before our last topic.
59:27.466 --> 59:33.552
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to put you on the spot that I feel comfortable that you can kind of handle whatever I throw if you without any heads up at all.
59:34.240 --> 59:36.182
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's embrace the hate.
59:36.422 --> 59:42.748
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're a fan of a teen, right, who's on the bubble, who should you be rooting against this week?
59:43.129 --> 59:43.849
[SPEAKER_02]: Who are the teens?
59:44.070 --> 59:47.473
[SPEAKER_02]: West Virginia, I think we just laid out was one right there, right?
59:48.013 --> 01:00:02.087
[SPEAKER_02]: If you are rooting for your bubble team, not bubble on the to get in the field, but bubble as far as you're in that very edge of number one seed potential.
[SPEAKER_02]: Who are the teams that you need to root for to lose?
[SPEAKER_02]: Because, not if you just said, you see a lay at this point, they may drop, but they're in, George is in, George attacks in, North Carolina is in.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are teams, first like, they are, they will slide a little bit, but let's talk about it more, like there's a big difference between you're hosting and you're not.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think that if you are a fan of West Virginia, we're gonna keep West Virginia in the loop.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're a fan of West Virginia, or Ole Miss, really, I think you're sitting there and you have to be cheering for the brave men and women at the Air Force this weekend to beat Oregon State at home in Corvallis.
[SPEAKER_03]: Oregon State loses this series.
[SPEAKER_03]: And by the way, you can go root for Portland as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe we can get to Portland weekend series against Air Force.
[SPEAKER_03]: If those teams can get the job done in Corvallis against an Oregon State team that is hurting, by the way, without it's a staff's win.
[SPEAKER_03]: If Air Force can go in there and steal a win, I don't see how the committee will be able to justify putting Oregon State above the 16 hostline.
[SPEAKER_03]: Why is that?
[SPEAKER_03]: The overall record is very shiny at 40 and 11, but they are not in the conference.
[SPEAKER_03]: The teams that they have played in their non-conference schedule comes out to the number 59 overall strength.
[SPEAKER_03]: They have seven quad-one games they're three and four.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think that Oregon State will fall below the hostline.
[SPEAKER_03]: If they take care of business this weekend because it's very hard to judge their resume relative to a couple of others and you almost have to respect the fact that in this hotge podge of a year they've been able to cobble together 40 plus wins that respect drives up really fast though if you're going to end the season with no conference tournament to kind of wash the bad taste.
[SPEAKER_03]: out of committee members mouths if you go and lose the series to Air Force or even a bidweek to Portland.
[SPEAKER_03]: So if you're West Virginia and you're sitting on the back of the host line, if you are Nebraska towards the back of the host line, if you're Ole Miss towards the you know the front of the two seed line, I think that you're sitting there this weekend looking at Oregon State and West Virginia and going those are the two teams of the most vulnerable right now in Nebraska as well to maybe fall out of the hosting picture and make some room for somebody else.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, there's one other thing, well, there's multiple other things that are going on, kind of a little bit below the surface right now as we kind of get to the tail end of the regular season.
[SPEAKER_02]: There will be teams.
[SPEAKER_02]: They'll be looking for coaches and there are coaches who are making their case with what they're doing.
[SPEAKER_02]: What should fans be looking for or what are you seeing and looking for as far as the upcoming coaching carousel?
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think that this year will be another reasonably quiet year as far as the overall volume of coaching changes at the head coaching level that we see last year was a reasonably quiet year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I do however believe that there are some high major jobs that it's time to have our eyes on, especially because, and in some cases, because there are coaches who may be hot names this offseason.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm looking at Kansas.
[SPEAKER_03]: Does Kansas have enough juice in the tank as an administration to be able to go and put together a raise for sure?
[SPEAKER_03]: some more years, and probably a very solid plan for renovating some facilities and investing in some, you know, roster building type costs at Kansas in order to keep a guy like Dan Fitzgerald from having some conversations.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're a team that needs ahead coach this summer at a high major level and you don't call Dan Fitzgerald, I think that you are making a huge mistake.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's what you're doing.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, it's total mistake.
[SPEAKER_03]: So,
[SPEAKER_03]: coaches like that could create vacancies.
[SPEAKER_03]: Does Kansas come open?
[SPEAKER_03]: Does the school like UTSA Patrick Hallmark was at the end of some speculation last off season for jobs that he could take?
[SPEAKER_03]: The rumors that grand canyon, which really wants to invest in its baseball program, can make a phone call to somebody like Pat Hallmark and say why don't you come out over here and try and do it here and set a UTSA?
[SPEAKER_03]: Those would be some names that I'm watching on the other end of it.
[SPEAKER_03]: I do think there are some teams that are in a position where you have to go perform well
[SPEAKER_03]: And there are some also that I think are really just determined.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm looking at like Houston.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that Houston is, it's a matter of when that Houston opens.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's going to be interesting to see who they go higher.
[SPEAKER_03]: So the things that I have my eye on right now are really too full.
[SPEAKER_03]: One are there situations where either it seems overwhelmingly likely that the coach currently in place will be fired.
[SPEAKER_03]: Or two, is there a reasonable chance that the coach who's currently in place could become a candidate somewhere else?
[SPEAKER_03]: And then the second thing is, on the flip side, how are some of these guys who could be considered for other jobs performing?
[SPEAKER_03]: Dan Fitzgerald is the one who comes, you know, front of mind, because of what Kansas has been able to do this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mentioned Patrick Palmer.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's definitely on the list.
[SPEAKER_03]: Some assistants that are out there Sean Allen, the pitching coach at USC.
[SPEAKER_03]: Those pictures are having a phenomenal season.
[SPEAKER_03]: What does this offseason look like for him?
[SPEAKER_03]: Bryant Ward, the hitting coach at UCLA.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's absolutely somebody who I would consider bringing into the fold to come and develop my players.
[SPEAKER_03]: There are more.
[SPEAKER_03]: John Coyne, the recruiting coordinator at Kansas.
[SPEAKER_03]: Those are all guys who want to have my eye on right now and how their teams perform in the most important part of the season is going to be critical for their managerial futures.
[SPEAKER_03]: And what exactly the next couple of months look like for some of these job candidates?
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, that is a power packed college podcast for this week.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are every week, but it's great to be with you, Jacob.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm really enjoying talking about this.
[SPEAKER_02]: Really going to join, you know, getting to make a couple of rants myself as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: We hope you enjoyed this week's college podcast.
[SPEAKER_02]: Check out all the coverage that we have over at baseballamerican.com.
[SPEAKER_02]: Please like and subscribe.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you have questions, if you have comments, you know, we, we, we love to hear them.
[SPEAKER_02]: JJ Cooper at baseball america.com send to me.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll get them.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll get them.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll get them.
[SPEAKER_02]: I enter.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll try to at least and, you know, I'll send some to Jacob if you know that if I don't know the answers to them.
[SPEAKER_02]: But we hope you enjoyed it for Jacob.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm JJ.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a long everybody.
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