Phil Rogers - Concilio x Kanda - Nick's episode
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Nick: [00:00:00] Hello, and welcome to the latest edition of the Consilio & Canda Better Places podcast, where I'm very fortunate today to be joined by the leading expert on elections in Cambridgeshire, Phil Rogers. Phil, thank you very much for joining us. Thanks very much for having me. Brilliant. Um, um, just, uh, for those of us, our audience, who aren't aware of all the excellent work that you do looking at election results, and, uh, local government boundaries, and so on, just want to give a bit of background about yourself.

Phil Rogers: Yeah. So, um, well, in my day job I'm a software developer, but, uh, for many years I've followed Cambridge politics, and I write a monthly column for the Cambridge Independent newspaper, and I also pop up on Cambridge Radio on, uh, mainly on the Cams Politics Show. Mm-hmm. Uh, uh, which comes out monthly, but, uh, doing other bits of, uh, coverage as well.

Phil Rogers: And I'm one of these people who likes going along to election counts and- Yeah ... uh, reporting from the counts to, uh, uh, see what's going on, which way the wind is blowing.

Nick: So were you there on last Thursday night?

Phil Rogers: Yes. Uh, well, it was f- it was Friday during the day actually. Well, of course, Friday is your day, isn't it, of course, in Cambridge.

Phil Rogers: Yeah, yeah. That's, that's, that's right. I, I do kind of miss [00:01:00] the old sort of overnight counts, but- Yeah, me too ... I've got to say, the Friday ones do make a bit more sense. Everyone's fresher- Mm-hmm ... and, uh, um, you know, it all takes a long time, so, um, better to

Nick: get it right.

Nick: So what was the mood like, uh, on Friday?

Nick: 'Cause, um, a lot of change coming to Cambridge, uh, with respect to who the councilors are. Yes.

Phil Rogers: It was very intense. There were a lot of, uh, activists in the hall very closely following some of the results, which were, which were pretty close in a few wards. Clearly disappointment for Labor. They lost six seats in the city.

Phil Rogers: The Lib Dems had been hoping to make gains, but, uh, that didn't come off for them. But the Greens were absolutely overjoyed. It was very much sort of at the upper end of their range of expectations, I think. Conservatives had focused on one particular ward- Mm ... which they didn't get, and Reform, I think, were just there to wave the flag a bit.

Phil Rogers: Yeah. But, uh, they, they h- haven't really got very

Nick: fertile

Phil Rogers: territory-

Nick: Mm ... in Cambridge. I mean, literally waving the flag, I think, were some of the, uh, Reform, um, councilors. So the Greens won six- councillors. Uh, do you wanna explain that Cambridge does thirds rather than all out, which I always find very confusing why some places do [00:02:00] thirds and not everybody elected at the same time.

Phil Rogers: Yes, yes, that's right. So there's 42 councillors in Cambridge, and there's 14 wards, each with three councillors. Mm-hmm. And, um, what normally happens is that a third of them are up ev- ev- every year, and then there's a rest in the fourth year, which is usually the county council elections. Mm. But all this is going to change- Indeed

Phil Rogers: as we'll probably talk about a bit later on. Uh, but for now, so there were 14 councillors who were sort of up in the normal of, uh, cycle of things, plus one by-election, so 15 up all together. Labor defending 10 of them, and they managed to lose six. Mm. So they've, they just had four surviving councillors, and, uh, so pretty, pretty grim night for them.

Nick: And that means Labor have lost, uh, control of the council, uh, as a single party. So they're still the largest party in Cambridge, but they don't have a majority of seats. That's right, isn't it?

Phil Rogers: Yes,

Phil Rogers: that's

Phil Rogers: right. They were on, I think, 23 before the election. Yeah. They're now down to 17, and you need 22 for a majority.

Phil Rogers: Mm. So, uh, um, we're now in a situation where it'll take two out of Labor, Lib Dems, and Greens to, [00:03:00] uh, form a governing coalition. Or perhaps Labor will try and carry on as a mino- minority. Mm. Uh, we're gonna find out next week when the, uh, annual council happens.

Nick: Indeed. I think there's, so there's now 62 no overall control councils in England, which is quite, I mean, it's the highest it's ever been.

Nick: So i- it's gonna be a lot of people watching AGMs next, next week or the week after with kind of bated breath to see what's happening. But o- one of the big changes in Cambridge was the leader of the council actually lost his seat, didn't he?

Nick: Yes. Um, that was very much, uh, a, a big, big scalp for the Greens, and they'd gone very hard to win in Petersfield Ward.

Nick: So, uh, uh, Cameron Holloway had actually, um, been a counselor in Newnham beforehand, um, but that was very much a, a, a top Green target. They'd won all the other seats in that area, and, uh, he, that was expected to happen again. So he did make the switch to Petersfield- Mm-hmm ... which, uh, was hopefully gonna be a bit more defensible for Labor.

Nick: Yeah. Uh, but as it turned out, the Greens got him there too.

Nick: Which is exactly what happened in Camden as well, with the leader of the council, uh, moving seats and also getting, uh, losing his seat to the Greens. Now, do you think a Lab-Lib coalition is [00:04:00] possible in Cambridge? And the reason I asking, we'll come on to South Cambridge here, but- Due to the Greater Cambridge shared planning and the sharing of services, but th- th- Lib- Labour and Liberals in Cambridge, Greater Cambridge, seem, do seem to get on quite well, is my observation.

Nick: Do you think it's possible they could do a deal?

Phil Rogers: Well, if you go along

Phil Rogers: to certain- ... um, Cambridge City Council meetings, they don't always get on, uh, along terribly well. Yeah. But, but certainly, yes, at the, the sort of inter-council level- Mm ... they, they have worked pretty well together. Um, to be honest, I think all, all three possible combinations, whether it's L- Lib-Lab, Lib-Green, Lab-Green, um, they've all got their difficulties.

Nick: Um- Yes ...

Phil Rogers: and it's gonna be really interesting seeing what emerges. Uh, uh, and no doubt there's lots of conversations going on as we speak to- Mm-hmm ... trying to come to a deal of some sort. Yeah. Um, I wouldn't really like to take a guess as to, to what's gonna emerge, but we'll know soon enough. Yeah.

Nick: Do you think the, if it does become a green Lib, like w- a, a council with a green flavor, l- let, let, let's say, or a green coloring, do you think that will change relationships with South [00:05:00] Cambridgeshire, and also potentially the, uh, the dev corps which, wh- wh- which is coming?

Nick: Because, uh, I, I imagine the Green Party has a different view on development and release of greenbelt, for instance, uh, than the current administration does.

Phil Rogers: Yes, I, it will certainly, certainly change at least the, the emphasis of policy- Mm-hmm ... I think. Um, but we must remember that there's local government reorganization coming- Yes

Phil Rogers: along the tracks at a rate of knots. Yeah. And that's, that's gonna have a big impact on, uh, what happens in Cambridge going forward.

Nick: Mm-hmm. Most, and we- we'll, we'll come onto, um, LGR, as we, as we, you know- Yeah ... local government reorganization in a sec, because South Cambridgeshire and Cambridge are kind of joined together in a number of the options for, for Cambridgeshire, aren't they?

Nick: And there were also elections in South Cambridgeshire, and c- and separating themselves from the city, it's what we call all, all out elections. So every, all, all councilors were, council seats were up for grabs, and the Lib Dems did very well, didn't they?

Phil Rogers: Yes. Yes. It was, um, not quite a Lib Dem whitewash, but, uh, very, very close to it.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. And so, um, as, as you say, unlike Cambridge, [00:06:00] um, South Cambridge has all ups every four years. Yeah. So the last ones were in 2022, and back then, uh, the Lib Dems won 37 of the 45 seats, and you would've thought that was pretty good showing. Yeah. Uh, but this time they managed to win 43 of the 45. Yeah.

Phil Rogers: So there's just two rather lonesome conservatives left on the opposition benches. And, uh-

Nick: It's quite remarkable, '

Nick: cause it used to be a solid conservative council. Oh, yes. Yes. Three elections ago, so 12 years ago. I mean, I think it was a b- in the same way the Lib Dems are dominant now, it used to be the conservatives were dominant, wasn't it?

Nick: Why, why do you think the change?

Phil Rogers: Yes. Well, I, I'm even old enough to remember before the conservatives- Mm-hmm ... were dominant, that there was a very large independent contingent- Oh, of course ... at one stage on the, on the council- Yeah ... going, going back, you know, back into the last century. Um, but certainly the conservatives were, were pretty dominant for quite a long time.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. Um, but I think it's, there's a combination of factors which has really brought the Lib Dems to the fore, sort of over the last 10 years. And, um, that's- Partly demographic change- Mm-hmm ... but it's also partly the growth of Cambridge, and- Yeah ... um, you know, more people moving into the area to work in the- Mm

Phil Rogers: the high-tech industries, [00:07:00] and, uh, people generally perhaps having a more sort of left-liberal worldview. And, and, uh, m- while Labour hasn't made a great deal of progress, um, certainly the Lib Dems have, uh, really, really stormed ahead. Though it's worth remembering they only won about 42% of the vote. Mm-hmm.

Phil Rogers: So the, the voting system has really sort of helped them out.

Nick: Yes, um, uh- So the- ... a- and, and w- always look back to the mayoral elections to see how that works. I, I think Mayor Bristow got 27% of the vote, and obviously won 100% of the power. Yes. And it's, it's happening, this fragmentation of, of so many parties means you don't need a large vote share to actually win, win a lot of power, do you?

Phil Rogers: Yes, that's right. And, and in South Cambridgeshire, the, the sort of vote to the right of the Lib Dems was very much split pretty evenly- Mm ... actually between Reform and the Conservatives, and they, that, they sort of canceled each other out to a large extent.

Nick: Yeah. I mean, Reform have kinda made their first real progress, um, in the county, in the Huntingdon, uh, Huntingdonshire elections e- even though I should say, uh, where they did gain some seats on the council.

Nick: Now, before the [00:08:00] elections, it was no overall control, uh, called it a rainbow coalition, um, in Hunts with all the different colored parties, apart from the Conservatives, uh, forming the administration. And, uh, it looks like it might be the same again for the next... well, until local government reorganization, that is.

Nick: It looks like it'll be the same again.

Phil Rogers: Yes. So Reform came from, basically from nowhere to, to gain 10 seats, but that still only leaves them as the third party in Huntingdonshire. Mm. And it- the council is actually pretty finely balanced, so the- Yeah ... the, the sort of balance has shifted slightly to the right.

Phil Rogers: Uh, I think it's still possible, as you say, for the rainbow coalition to, to carry on. But, uh, again, you know, let's hope everybody turns up to the annual meeting and, uh - Well,

Nick: in- indeed, by-elections and holidays are gonna be

Nick: closely watched, aren't they, for- Yes, very much so ... so just on Hunts, so the Lib Dems have got 20 Greens two and Labour one.

Nick: Uh, Conservatives 15 and Reform 10. Again, whether their national parties would allow them to do deals is a whole separate conversation, but you can see a right block and a left block there. But we have the independents in Hunts, and there's four of them. I mean, d- is there any indication of which, of how they align?

Nick: Uh, [00:09:00] do, do they align more with, uh, kind of a lib- liberal left block, do you think, or the, the center, center-right block?

Phil Rogers: Well, certainly traditionally the independents have been a bit more, a bit more aligned with the, with the sort of liberal left side. Mm-hmm. But there's been quite a phenomenon this year of independents sort of joining up with maybe the Greens or the Lib Dems- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: um, so that they're part of the party organization. Yeah. I th- I, I think, um, you know, as campaigning gets more and more organized and automated- Mm ... and it's, it's harder and harder to be an independent and, uh, compete with the parties who have these sort of, uh, all these volunteers ready to go out and- Yeah

Phil Rogers: knock on doors and, and put leaflets through letterboxes, so. Mm-hmm. So there is a certain amount of that. Um, and we will just have to see what happens at- We will ... at their annual meeting.

Nick: We will.

Nick: Um, yes, it's, uh, very exciting in Hunts, uh, in the council chamber. And then we've got Peterborough. No overall control still.

Nick: It's really split amongst the parties in Peterborough, isn't it?

Phil Rogers: Yeah, Peterborough actually is in the quite remarkable situation that even if you take two parties and put them together, there's no combination- Wow ... that makes a majority. Yeah. So you need, you need at least three parties. But I, I suspect what's going to happen is we'll [00:10:00] carry on with more or less what we had before, which was, um, Labour plus Lib Dems, plus some Gree- w- sort of support from some Greens- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: and, and Peterborough first, and, uh- Yeah ... um, that, that'll probably still be enough to put together a, a, a ruling group. But, um, again, Peterborough politics is sort of, uh, famous for its, uh, uh, combustive nature, I think. Yeah. So, uh, who knows what will happen over

Phil Rogers: the, over the full term.

Nick: It's, it always amazes me we can actually pass a budget and pass, you know, 'cause there's so much, so many different parties, it's just...

Nick: to actually get things done must be very difficult.

Phil Rogers: Yes, yes, and, and, but I think we're gonna see that more and more, uh, in general- Mm-hmm ... gen- in this era of, you know, five, five plus party politics.

Nick: Indeed. These elections very important, but only for a year or so, or maybe two years at most if a local government reorganization, um, takes place according to the government's current schedule.

Nick: Can you just, um, give our listeners kind of an overview of local government reorganization in, in, in Cambridgeshire as you understand it to be as we sit here today?

Phil Rogers: Yeah, so broadly what's going [00:11:00] on is that there are four options in play, uh, and these are going to replace the county and the district councils, um, and indeed, um, Peterborough City Council as it exists at the moment.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. Um, and across the whole of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, we will have either two or three new unitary councils, and they'll be covering larger areas than at the mo- Yeah ... than at the moment. And, and, you know, part of the reason for this is at the moment, um, you know, if you've got a problem with potholes, you've gotta go to the county.

Phil Rogers: If you've got a problem- Yeah ... with bins, you've gotta go to the city, and, and people phone up the wrong council. Mm-hmm. Uh, they complain to their counselor, who has to say, "Well, actually that's not me, that's this other s- councillor over here that you need to go and talk to. And, and, uh, there's, there's sort of, um, a, a, a lot of cross-working, if you like.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. And also sometimes you get into a situation where one layer of the council wants to do one thing, and it's having a fight with the council- Mm-hmm ... at another layer who, who wants to do another thing. And, uh, having unitaries instead will, will sort of resolve all this, uh- Yeah ... so the idea goes. And, and I do think it's, it's, uh, potentially a very good idea.

Phil Rogers: But obviously- Yeah ... [00:12:00] it's quite a lot of disruption and cost when you're bringing the new system in. Um, but, uh, once, once it's brought in, we should benefit from the efficiencies- Yeah ... and, you know, just having one council to go to. Yeah.

Nick: So to be clear, the counties, the county I should say, not county. The county is disappearing.

Nick: Its p- its current responsibilities will go into the new unitaries. Is that correct? So it would just be one council, as you said, you'll know who to call for your bin, for adult social care, for education, it will be your unitary council.

Phil Rogers: Yes, that's right. In any one area it'll, it'll be- Yeah ... one unitary council.

Phil Rogers: But across the whole of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough- Mm-hmm ... it's going to be divided up into, we don't know exactly what just yet, but either two or three different councils- Mm-hmm ... which will each be sort of responsible for everything in those areas.

Nick: And how do you think they will, and obviously this is a real guesstimate, politically how they will break?

Nick: Um, a number of the options do have a Greater Cambridge, which already kind of exists in many ways, doesn't it, between Cams and South Cams? I... Would that be a probably a Lib Dem dominated council, would you say? Based on election results [00:13:00] from the mayoralties and extrapolating across or would it be a bit, bit closer for Labor maybe?

Phil Rogers: Well, so at the moment there's four different options in play. Mm-hmm. And as far as Cambridge is concerned, um, three of them involve having a Greater Cambridge- Yeah ... council, which is basically the city plus South Cams. Mm-hmm. Uh, and, and the other one is the city plus South Cams and East Cams as well. Yes.

Phil Rogers: Um, but looking at the results that we had, um, on, on Thursday, uh, either of those, uh, arrangements for, for Cambridge are gonna be very much Lib Dem dominated. Yeah. Just because they have such an enormous majority on South Cams. Mm-hmm. If you add that to what's going on in the city, then they still have a pretty big majority.

Phil Rogers: Yeah. And if you even, even if you add in East Cams as well, which is more or less split between the Conservatives- I was gonna say Conservatives ... and the Lib Dems- And Re- Reform did well there, I think, in the mayoral elections, didn't they? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah. And, and, you know, come, come the next council elections, I would expect Reform to- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: pick up a few, a, a, a f- few seats in p- particularly the more rural areas. But, but nevertheless, um, you know, that's not going to put a dent in the Lib Dems' overall [00:14:00] majority in- Mm-hmm ... in the Greater Cambridge council. So when that comes along, as things stand- Yes ... and obviously, you know, things may change, um, it's looking like the Lib Dems will be- Mm

Phil Rogers: sort of in pole position to, uh, have a majority on that council. Yes. Which

Nick: always struck me looking on, 'cause y- you've got a Labor government essentially Giving the, not giving, that's not, that's not correct to say. Electorally, it's to a Lib Dem dominated council, one of, uh, the, the growth target areas in the country.

Nick: So I always find that quite interesting looking on, but a Labor government would actually do that, but we, we will see. And then we have the other options are more to the north of the county, so parts of Hunts or Hunts. I mean, Hunts Council have put through their own option of, of Huntingdon staying Huntingdon with everything else split up.

Nick: Not quite sure how that would work numbers wise with the government's objectives to how many people live in a unitary. But we've got combinations of East Cambs, Peterborough, Fenland, and Hunts. And if you're gonna look at where Reform might actually do quite well, um, based on the mayoral election results, it, Reform would have a, a, a chance of doing one in an election for a [00:15:00] unitary that covered those areas.

Phil Rogers: Yes, yes, certainly. And, and we do see projections for some of the, uh, parliamentary constituencies. Mm-hmm. And, and certainly at the moment, um, Reform are often projected to win the seats sort of in the north of the county. Yes. Maybe one or, one or two the Conservatives might hold onto. Mm-hmm. You know, northeast, northwest Cambridgeshire- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: um, often projected for reform. And, you know, it's clearly a long way till the next general election- Yeah ... um, uh, despite what's going on today. But- We've probably got till 2029, I would be hearing. Yeah. I, I, I, I, I do think that's, that's, that's realistic, you know, for the Labour Party won't vote for Christmas, as it were.

Phil Rogers: No, indeed. Indeed. So, uh, um, yeah, but, but nevertheless, those are the areas where reform is strong at the moment. Mm-hmm.

Nick: Um, in terms of elections for these new unitaries, so we should find out in the autumn, I think. Is that right? Or, um, after summer? Uh, or we're gonna hear before? I mean, we're, we're all kind of waiting with bated breath for when, when, what the councils are gonna be.

Phil Rogers: Yeah. So I, I've heard the first half of July mentioned as- Okay, fantastic ... as the possible date- Mm-hmm ... um, for, for the announcement to be made. We have [00:16:00] already heard the, uh, what's going to happen for Norfolk and Suffolk. Yes, indeed. Yeah, that's come out. Um, and each of those is going to be divided into three.

Phil Rogers: Yeah. And those three are actually quite a bit smaller than the 500,000 target- Interesting. Yeah ... that the, uh, uh, government had originally s- uh, set up. So, uh, they're quite, um, keen to say that, um, that's not necessarily a precedent for what's gonna happen- Mm ... elsewhere. Yeah. But it does indicate that Cambridgeshire, they m- they might be prepared to have those slightly smaller councils.

Phil Rogers: So we might end up with three rather than two. It is adding more blobs to the diagram even- Mm ... even as, uh, LGR is sort of take- Take one and give them another one ... taking one away. Yeah. And we, we mustn't forget the GCP as well, which is- Of course. Yeah ... uh, um, it does have a natural lifespan, and it's coming towards the end of that.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. But, uh, it, it will still be working on a number of projects in the meantime. Yeah. And, and it has that budget to spend. But th- I think essentially the way the new councils are likely to be organized, it'll probably be the case that, you know, the, the southern one will be a bit more left wing, and the northern- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: one will be a bit more right wing, and then you'll have the mayor, who obviously at the moment is conservative. Mm-hmm. So eve- even if [00:17:00] a, a left wing candidate manages to win in the future, there's going to be some level of, uh, sort of political difference between the mayor and, and- Yeah ... one or the other councils v- very likely.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. So I think there, there's always gonna be a bit of tension in the system. Yeah. And certainly, uh, as the Development Corporation is, is being set up, and there's- Mm ... the consultancy, uh, the con- the consultation- Consultation ... that, that ran on that recently, and, uh, uh, the sort of responses are being processed- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: to that now. But it seems very likely that that's, that's gonna come along. And I think there's a lot of people in Cambridge who are kind of, uh, quite unhappy about the prospects of planning powers being taken away- Yeah ... from the city, and the ability to make the local plan being taken away. Mm-hmm. Um, and you can kind of understand what the government's motives are for that.

Phil Rogers: Mm. But, um, a, a lot of people will be concerned about the sort of level of democratic accountability- Yeah ... that that leaves us.

Nick: So when it comes to planning, we'll have the The new unitary, the dev corp, and also the mayor who will have planning powers as well, and [00:18:00] it's gonna be interesting to see how that relationship works, um, in practice.

Phil Rogers: Yes, and in particular, I mean, not just for planning and where new housing- Mm-hmm ... is going to go, but transport is absolutely- Of course, yeah ... crucial to, uh, to the City of Cambridge. And it really is the sort of flip side of the housing issue. Mm-hmm. You know, if we could all teleport instantaneously from here to there- Yeah

Phil Rogers: then, um, that would certainly have a big effect on house prices. But- Mm-hmm ... um, if, if, uh, you know, it takes you an hour to drive in through, um, massive congestion into Cambridge- Yeah ... that has a big effect on house prices too. So where all this new development goes, uh, uh, very, it, it, it very much matters for that- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: um, what sort of transport solutions we're

Phil Rogers: gonna have in the future.

Nick: Yeah, so really the message of a CP, C- Cambridge and Peterborough Combined Authority, and the dev corp, and the council really need to work together, even if they may be of different political persuasions.

Phil Rogers: Yes, and there have certainly been, you know, quite a lot of fights over transport policy.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. Um, and particularly, uh, contentious issues like the Cambourne to Cambridge bus way. Yes, I can see. Yep. Um, and, and, uh, it was very interesting seeing the mayor give evidence to the public [00:19:00] inquiry- Mm-hmm ... earlier in the, earlier in the year saying, "Well, you know, we may not necessarily have buses running on this bus way at all."

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. Uh, I mean, clearly something would be worked out if, uh, uh, once the thing was built. Yeah. Um, but we're, we're also waiting for, for, uh, for that public inquiry to come back and, uh- Yeah ... tell us what it thinks.

Nick: I mean, so we've also got East West Rail coming, uh, to Cambridge as well. I mean, it's, it's probably not an area of the country which is gonna see as much interest with respect to development and growth as Cambridge, which a number of governments have said, you know, the OxCam Arc, you know, we're gonna back it.

Nick: But it really does seem this government is, i- it's, it's going for it. It's really going for growth in Cambridge.

Phil Rogers: Yes, that's right. And of course, relatively recently we've had the A14 upgrade as well. Of course, yep. Um, there's y- the, all the works around the Black Cat Roundabout going on- Mm-hmm ... which obviously aren't right on our doorstep, but are still relevant for the city.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. And, uh, um, c- more connectivity across the, across the

Nick: greater region. Yeah. Um, a usual conversation to now pass without mentioning Ely junction upgrades as well, which are very much on the, on the shopping list for m- for, for many people. Um, but Phil, [00:20:00] thank you very much for the insights you've given us, um, on the Cambridgeshire, um, elections.

Nick: Is there anything else you'd like- l- like to add or comment on what's happened last Thursday?

Phil Rogers: Well, it was certainly a very, very interesting time, and I, I think, um, uh, one issue is, you know, where Cambridge politic- politics is going to go in the medium term. And there's a, a lot of different projections for what's going to happen politically, uh, at, at the parliamentary level- Mm-hmm

Phil Rogers: in the, in the longer term. You know, are the Greens going to be able to take the city? Yep. Will, will Labor hang on? Um, can the Lib Dems hold onto their seats? Mm-hmm. South Cambridgeshire's generally r- regarded as, as, as really very safe for the Lib Dems. Yeah. But the other two they've got not, not so much.

Phil Rogers: Yeah, Reform will be knocking on the door- So- ... won't they? Yeah. In, in those seats. Yeah. Yeah. And, and, you know, how high will the Reform tide rise? It's- Mm-hmm ... um, it's, it's gone quite a long way up, and it's possibly gone back down a little bit now. Mm-hmm. But, um, you know, I, I do say that, uh, if, if the Reform tide really sweeps the country and, and they get an overall majority, Cambridge is gonna be a little bit like [00:21:00] Asterix's village- Yes

Phil Rogers: uh, with the Roman Empire- Yes ... all around it. Yeah. Uh, it'll, it'll be sort of

Phil Rogers: the one, one of the last-

Nick: You're right ... non-Reform holdouts When you see the maps- Yeah ... it's turquoise everywhere with either a green or a red, depending on, um, you know, what the, what the current polling is. Yeah. Uh, with Cambridge about a little island, um, in the middle, isn't it?

Phil Rogers: Yeah. So, you know, I think whatever happens in Cambridge politics going forward, we are not gonna be bored.

Nick: No, we're not. Um, so the next elections are the shadow ones for the unitaries. Then it must be the mayoralty, and then it's the general, I assume, in terms of the, the order of the elections.

Phil Rogers: Yes. Well, the, the, the mayoralty is due in 2029.

Phil Rogers: Mm-hmm. So, uh, that may well happen-

Nick: Same day as the general possibly ..

Phil Rogers: . You know, very, very s- Yeah ... p- possibly the same day or possibly a month before. Yeah. So, uh, um, yes, that'll, that'll be an exciting time too.

Nick: Well, it'll certainly keep us all with something to talk about, politics in Cambridgeshire. So Phil, thank you very much for your time.

Phil Rogers: Well, thanks very much for having me on.

Nick: Thank you.