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[SPEAKER_01]: All right, welcome back to another episode of the baseball America of Fancy Podcast.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is your host, Jeff Ponds.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Alongside me is my co-host, the master of the Robo Scout.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Most interesting man in Fancy Baseball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They'll be dealing white.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Go on on, Dylan.

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[SPEAKER_01]: How are you?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Not bad.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a long weekend in Canada.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So you may hear fireworks in the background.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a Victoria day or May 24 weekend as a college, even though it doesn't.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I was following the 24th.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So if you hear explosions, it's not me and my eyes popping out when I see Devin Fitzgerald's data, it's fireworks in the background.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, yes indeed.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we have a memorial day coming up this upcoming weekend.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, always staggered a little bit with our, our different holidays, but in the end, we're all out here celebrating and the weather is better here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm guessing the other, we better here too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we love to talk about weather and show for some reason.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Because I'm up north.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's because we're we're in cold areas.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We like it when it gets warm, but you had mentioned the man the mytholizing devan fits Gerald, hyphen fits Gerald, it's been a remarkable run.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That, of course, he went over four, over five on Sunday that bomb.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Bringing his batting average below 300 for the week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But he did have a stretch, Dylan.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty good stretch.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Eight home runs, over 10 games.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Before I kick it over to you, I'll just kind of give my two cents.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The funny thing is, I expect to look at a box score with Devon Fitzgerald and see like two hits in a walk, a double, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: He has some power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think one of the reasons that

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[SPEAKER_01]: the power numbers have continued to play, despite him not being the biggest guy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have access to the advanced stack cast out us so we can give you an idea of the EVs.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're surprisingly down from his ACL Stint last year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're,

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're a little split.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So the EVs, I haven't shared this with you, but I have pulled them for against right-handed pitching, so it was a lefty, because he's a switch-hitter, and it's a right-handed hitter against lefties.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the EVs are more in line with last season, like a 103 type area against right-handed pitching, against left-handed pitching, it's a little bit worse.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the numbers overall against left-handed pitching for Fritz Gerald are a little bit worse.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, I will say I was a little surprised that he'd go on this kind of a homerun.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I expected him to finish with like 12 to 13, maybe 14 or 15 homeruns, but hit for, you know, a very high batting average with high-on-base percentages, low-strike out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, I consider him still more of a hit-tool first guy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the data when we dig into the back end, that kind of bears it out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The swing decisions are good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a higher heart, spying, he hardly chases.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So he does all those things really, really well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the angles are good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's why kind of hardening back to the winter, where I said, if it's Gerald in a lot of ways, particularly as a left handed hitter, was very reminiscent of Kevin McGoni, I'm going to use the term team of McGoni goal.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I know that somebody else made a comp like that and got a little critical,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but the reason that I made that cop kind of goes back to a theory that I've talked about for years now and not something that I've been ever able to like fully prove and I know that there's some research that's gone into it, but not on the public side and there's only so much that people share with me, but I do think there's certain guys who just like a foreseen fastball has like spin efficiency doing right there's certain guys who backspend their foreseen

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[SPEAKER_01]: at 99 to 100% spin efficiency, meaning that that transverse spin, that backspin, that contributes directly to the movement of the baseball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: When you hit flyballs and you are a good flyball hitter, particularly a guy who's good to his pole side, mechanical, as a left handed hitter, different Fitzgerald.

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[SPEAKER_01]: On the right-handed side, famous one,

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[SPEAKER_01]: that had some peak power years, Alex Bregman.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think Isaac Paradee's is a guy that's been called out as somebody like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Joey Vado, when he started to get into more power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think it's a matter of guys who backspin the baseball off the bat more efficiently.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They have cleaner, pull side juice because of it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe the EVs are an outstanding,

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[SPEAKER_01]: but they can continually sort of park stuff out to the shortest part of the park, which is down the lines and sort of that, true, we'll say right field for McGonagall or Fitzgerald, as a left handed hitter, they're able to backspin that more efficiently.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So the ball travels further than it expected to, based on EVs and launch angles because of sort of that spin element.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And when you watch guys hit in the major leagues, and it's why you'll see a guy hit a ball 105, with a similar launch angle, and it goes 410 feet, and then you see a guy hit it 110 with a similar launch angle, and it's a warning track shot.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think some of it is like inefficient spin.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the highest EV guys we see, hit a lot of ground balls,

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[SPEAKER_01]: inefficient spin more top spin less clean backspin and there's just rare that there's a guy with huge EVs that also kind of backspins are really well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's like a given take like anything in baseball, like anything with analytics, we're digging into a player, but that's kind of my

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[SPEAKER_01]: little soap box, little, uh, I don't know, theory as to why his powers playing beyond some of the exit velocities.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We, we have a, we were incremental on how we bumped up the grades.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have a 55 hit on.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have a 45 power on him.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think we could probably bump those grades up to a 60-hit personally, and maybe a 50-power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think, despite this home run run, there is some stuff to kind of bake in with Fitzgerald when it comes to the splits and the fact that he is a switchheader, because like just to put it out there, he's got an 1176 OPS against right handers.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Do you wanna guess what is his, is he'll against left handers, Dylan?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, I'd say, because the whole thing is like a thousand now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So probably it's probably a slightly slifty 600.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's higher than that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is actually 722.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of that is based on high walk rates.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he has a couple of homers, so he has actually hit a couple of homers as a right hand hitter as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 188 batting average though, just a, I know it's batting average, so whatever.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then it is only a 32 at bat sample, so it is very small.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, he's got 10 strikeouts across 32 at Bats vs. 18 strikeouts against the 108 at Bats against Rides.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of a little bit of a difference between him, maybe like we're going to or somebody, but I think it's also bearing why for now he's kind of a back into the top 100 guy for me, like you can move him up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I just think when you start to get into like some of the conversations I heard this week of like top 30, top 25, I think it's a little

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, there's a lot there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think those guys, Breggman, Bottle, Praties, I mean, I'll two ways kind of the same thing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: All those guys are grid-hit tools, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to go obviously, and it's Gerald who's that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's like, if you can handle the bat, if you can handle the barrel, then you know, you've got a pretty good chance to do what you're talking about hitting the bottom of the ball, getting the back spin, all that stuff.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think last year, like you, it's you pointed him out as a sleeper because all the stack has we like contact in some contact, 90th, Chase, Z minus, oh, swing, all that stuff.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was red, like he was above average across all of them basically, barrel rates, and he was only 19.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I was like,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Not only was he all red, but he's like one of the youngest people doing that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so like he's got the whole package.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's no surprise he's doing well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I do think, and I wrote about it this week, I do think he's been over skis, too.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like Robo Scout, you take his home runs, which is 11 home runs or whatever in high A as a 20 year old and 169-played parents is extrapolate that out.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So like 27 and the major leagues doing that at high A, like that's a 32 home run peak.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a bit high.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, he's on the high end of his, he's out comes right now, just like you're saying that the the exit policies aren't there aren't like popping.

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[SPEAKER_00]: They're not out of this world.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like we're seeing some of these other guys.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, the hit tool is plus like you said it's a.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It was plus last year, it's plus this year compared to the level.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's also young for the level, so he knows how to handle the bat.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I do like a, he's definitely top 100.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Robuscaud sees him like top 15, but I think that's based on overproduction, even with the regression that's still, uh, I think he's not quite a 30 home run guy, but he will have high batting averages high on base and good WRC pluses.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that is well said covered a lot there is like eight minutes unfit share old.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's move on to our next name.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think this is beautiful, Dylan.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So when we both independent, we come across the same guy with different processes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I was updating the cardinals top 30 over the last week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I was digging and deep doing calls, digging in the data, watching video, all that sort of thing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I came across, Xavier Cruz, where some of us mentioned to me by an internal contact with the Cardinals of someone I should check out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You'd recently gotten a data dump in terms of the pitching data, so it was like, all right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to go check this guy out and I was blown away with what I saw, Dylan, then started digging in some videos, found out this guy actually had heard a short stop when he signed a little bit later, a little later for the international market, still very young.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it was like, all right, and then I started going back each year that he had pitched and seeing the progression of the velocity and the stuff.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so I was like, all right, I'm I'm in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And the performance was there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I write up the report.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I turn it in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Next day, you're finishing

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[SPEAKER_01]: Do you know this Xavier Cruz guy, he looks pretty.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so I was like, yes, hold on a second.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I screen shot it by report and I sent it over to you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So you were finished.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think Robles Scott, she used the short stuff that you might have gotten down on your own, too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But for Clayman, it was for me.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But it's fun when that happens.

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[SPEAKER_01]: When we both kind of come across a player, it happened a couple times with these recent top 30.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And for the guys you were talking about in guys that I kind of came upon.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I found that interesting.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you like about Xavier Cruz?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think there's only so much we could say because he's got a fairly small sample size.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But what are your thoughts there?

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[SPEAKER_01]: He seems like a real mover.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I mean, you got to be careful with these complex league performances because like if a guy throws a hundred, but nothing else, like you may still have great great performance, great production, but it's just one patch he's just overwhelming hitters or he's older, he's got a great change up and it's just like again, exploding these younger hitters.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I'd like to look at the stuff.

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[SPEAKER_00]: to see is it a thing that like kind of transcends level anything.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And his stuff is just so good.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like he throws 97 with an IBB of over 20 inches and a minus 4.5 VAA.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So like already that's a good fastball.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let alone for a 20 year old who's in the complex.

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[SPEAKER_00]: His sliders 84 miles an hour almost at 85

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, it has, you know, eight inches of of, uh, of sleep, it's not the greatest slider, but he's, it's basically almost there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So he's got that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So he's got two pitches and then he has a curve ball, which is probably the best pitch of the bunch, which is the, I wrote about in the, in the article this week, it has the seventh highest spin rate of any picture who throws a curve ball in the higher leagues this year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It has over 15 inches of sweep and 60 inches of like negative of dive negative IVB and like you can get like IVB like that because you know you throw a loopy curve.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But he throws an 81.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So it's like it's a hard-ish curveball like the average speed for curveballs like 78.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So he throws a hard curveball that has incredible movement and credible spin rates.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He has a 97 mile that are flat fastball.

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[SPEAKER_00]: like he's the real deal.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like if if I saw this guy this this data in double a I'd be like okay this guy's just like get a change up and then this guy's gonna be an ace type of thing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So all that to say he's 20 years old in the complex he's got a lot of runaway to to add velocity and another pitch.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Hold runners on all that good stuff get consistent with its release point is extension is a bit Fluxuates across the pitches, but I mean it's a small sample size so like that would that'll even out But yeah, this the stuff is just so so great For someone so young so of course he's at the top of the complex lead charts He's only going just over two winnings a stint

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like you mentioned, already is a converged shortstop, so you know, he's learning the position, I guess, but I just like the raw the raw clay that's there for him to work with.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's well put.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even need to add anything else.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of went through the numbers and why we've like, but it's a live arm.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't know if you agree or not.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's you got to be probably in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 300 plus kind of prospectly with a guy like this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, maybe you think it's a little higher than that.

14:50.238 --> 14:58.610
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, because it's a complex arm that doesn't have a ton of innings, even though the stuff is really good, this can go like a variety of different directions still.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That I don't want to, I don't want to tell you in like a 150 league.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Ah, go drop this guy who's close to the major or a year away to get that Xavier Cruz.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But maybe maybe in a year you'll be kicking yourself.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean a 500, I mean a 500 minor league system.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't get on him.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I used to young.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We saw like 10 cans, not to.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no

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[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I wouldn't go out to bring the bank yet.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm playing it patiently, but you know, keep an eye on this guy because the stuff's pretty good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's worth taking a look at.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's move on to another arm here.

16:03.719 --> 16:08.965
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a sometimes co-host Jacob Rodner favorite.

16:09.586 --> 16:13.350
[SPEAKER_01]: That would be none other than Carson Millbrand.

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[SPEAKER_01]: from the marlins, it's really good stuff.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The performance has been great so far this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So what is the robot saying down?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he had a really good week.

16:23.243 --> 16:26.005
[SPEAKER_00]: He struck out 11 in six innings.

16:26.546 --> 16:38.316
[SPEAKER_00]: He's third in AA behind Kda Anderson and the one start of Anthony Ionson, who, when combined with this, IA ends up in second place in AA.

16:38.556 --> 16:41.819
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just, I wrote about him last year too as he had taken a step forward.

16:41.839 --> 16:44.601
[SPEAKER_00]: He changed his shape, so his secondaries.

16:45.222 --> 16:47.364
[SPEAKER_00]: He's striking out a bunch of batters.

16:47.604 --> 16:52.348
[SPEAKER_00]: He's at a 37% strike out right now.

16:52.328 --> 16:55.031
[SPEAKER_00]: he's at 8.7% block rate right now.

16:56.333 --> 16:58.495
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's kind of overwhelming them from the left side.

16:59.296 --> 17:13.933
[SPEAKER_00]: But shaky on the command, but with the ground ball rate of 62% like put it all together, he's only 22 in double a at the end up with like one of the better peak projections of any pitcher based on his 2026 performance.

17:13.953 --> 17:16.716
[SPEAKER_00]: So like Seth Hernandez obviously is good to be good.

17:16.882 --> 17:19.552
[SPEAKER_00]: Robbie Snelly is going to show well, no, a shoulder is going to show well.

17:19.572 --> 17:21.440
[SPEAKER_00]: Anthony Eines, and as I mentioned, is going to show well.

17:21.520 --> 17:26.419
[SPEAKER_00]: And Carson Milbrand is like 56th on that list of peak projection.

17:27.310 --> 17:56.305
[SPEAKER_00]: It's it's really the last two weeks where he's really stepped forward and he's a semantic himself as a top arm to get I think I mean he might even be like a top 20 picture right now and probably top 15 for fantasy just based on what he's doing right now.

17:56.285 --> 18:21.617
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a sweeper that has over a foot of sweep, throws it 85 miles an hour, the sliders 87, 88 has positive IVB, which is always good for the stuff models for sliders, also throws a curve ball, and 83, so he's got multiple, multiple secondaries that sweep in that glumpside direction, and then he also has a change up that he throws every so often.

18:21.597 --> 18:25.282
[SPEAKER_00]: which is about eight miles an hour slower than the four seams.

18:25.302 --> 18:26.384
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's got a five-pitch mix.

18:26.984 --> 18:33.594
[SPEAKER_00]: He seems to be controlling it better than normal this year, and he's just striking out a bunch and getting involved in the ground a lot.

18:33.614 --> 18:39.983
[SPEAKER_00]: So Carson Millbrand, the Miami Marlins, have been turning out pictures like crazy, Robbie Snowing, Tommy White, et cetera.

18:41.064 --> 18:41.905
[SPEAKER_00]: Thomas White, maybe.

18:42.646 --> 18:43.467
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I shouldn't say Tommy.

18:44.228 --> 18:46.812
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think Carson Millbrand is just another one in that list.

18:49.019 --> 18:52.299
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think no brands are really good call out and it's great.

18:52.380 --> 18:55.620
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm glad to see the performance kind of stepping up to

18:56.123 --> 18:57.804
[SPEAKER_01]: what the talent looked like.

18:57.905 --> 19:06.472
[SPEAKER_01]: The first time I saw him on the back field, just probably 2023, I want to say, and it got in good reports, he shoved that day.

19:06.532 --> 19:15.260
[SPEAKER_01]: And I might have had him either my 23 or my 24 break out list and it didn't happen and had a pretty decent year last year.

19:15.300 --> 19:19.383
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think as you said, he's kind of leveling up this year.

19:19.864 --> 19:26.029
[SPEAKER_01]: Another picture here, left hand picture,

19:26.009 --> 19:29.135
[SPEAKER_01]: was Jackson Kent of the nationals.

19:29.656 --> 19:37.152
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a little bit less upside in comparison to crews or Milbrand, but potentially a little closer to impact.

19:37.232 --> 19:39.276
[SPEAKER_01]: So what are your thoughts with Kent?

19:40.420 --> 19:44.226
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think I said left side for Milbrand, which obviously is incorrect, it's right side.

19:44.266 --> 19:47.791
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, Kent is a year older than Milbrand.

19:48.672 --> 19:56.064
[SPEAKER_00]: He also throws 95 very flat minus 4.3 VAA, but his extensions, almost seven feet.

19:56.685 --> 20:01.011
[SPEAKER_00]: So that plays up probably arguably even a better fastball.

20:00.991 --> 20:04.676
[SPEAKER_00]: then Millbury and Anne from the left side makes it, you know, even better.

20:04.696 --> 20:10.904
[SPEAKER_00]: He has an 87 mile an hour slider, positive IVB with that extension as well.

20:11.404 --> 20:14.348
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and it gets 42 percent whiff, 33 percent chases.

20:14.388 --> 20:24.161
[SPEAKER_00]: So, he's got those two pitches working for him and then he's got a change up, which also gets 40 percent whiff, 40 percent chases also has like 16 inches of fade on that change up.

20:24.181 --> 20:25.943
[SPEAKER_00]: So, he's got three pitches for sure.

20:25.963 --> 20:28.787
[SPEAKER_00]: 23 years old.

20:28.767 --> 20:29.789
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the high extension.

20:29.809 --> 20:30.490
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's good.

20:30.530 --> 20:32.294
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's it's outlier extension.

20:32.975 --> 20:42.392
[SPEAKER_00]: He has also a high ground ball rate at 53% which is well above average is strike out minus walk race 25.4% so like on the surface.

20:42.893 --> 20:44.296
[SPEAKER_00]: The performance is good.

20:44.356 --> 20:46.199
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going over four ratings per outing.

20:46.800 --> 20:51.028
[SPEAKER_00]: He's 23 where the average Asian in AA is about 25.

20:51.008 --> 20:54.373
[SPEAKER_00]: So at peak he has a sub four ERA.

20:54.393 --> 20:57.497
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a 1.25 whip.

20:57.738 --> 21:00.301
[SPEAKER_00]: He's six on the double A rankings.

21:00.942 --> 21:03.766
[SPEAKER_00]: And I just, I like, I mean, we all like with the nationals are doing.

21:04.147 --> 21:04.828
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked with them.

21:04.848 --> 21:05.769
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Joe, they're ready.

21:06.691 --> 21:08.393
[SPEAKER_00]: Jeremy Cabrera.

21:08.474 --> 21:11.838
[SPEAKER_00]: You're lifting off all the people in there in their system.

21:11.858 --> 21:15.442
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like 20 of them in their in their system and like that's a testament.

21:15.502 --> 21:16.763
[SPEAKER_00]: I think to the depth of the system.

21:17.564 --> 21:21.628
[SPEAKER_00]: Because this is a I think of mid rotation starter at peak back of the rotation.

21:21.688 --> 21:23.010
[SPEAKER_00]: I think.

21:24.131 --> 21:29.617
[SPEAKER_00]: Easily, I think that's his that's his floor and yeah, he's on the he's on the precipices in the upper level.

21:29.637 --> 21:32.440
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's on the precipice of the majors may be in 27.

21:32.943 --> 21:34.886
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, you could always use lefties.

21:35.166 --> 21:36.007
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's good.

21:36.047 --> 21:37.249
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he's he's not going to be an ace.

21:37.269 --> 21:38.911
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to be like an SB 2 or anything.

21:38.951 --> 21:42.396
[SPEAKER_00]: He may not even be mid rotation for a while, but I like the fastball.

21:42.416 --> 21:43.237
[SPEAKER_00]: I like the slider.

21:43.857 --> 21:44.919
[SPEAKER_00]: It's got good extension.

21:44.939 --> 21:46.661
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's got he's got some forgiveness.

21:46.681 --> 21:47.462
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a margin.

21:48.804 --> 21:50.506
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think I think it's pretty good.

21:50.586 --> 21:51.528
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got good control too.

21:51.608 --> 21:52.028
[SPEAKER_00]: Good command.

21:52.048 --> 21:59.338
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's it's possible that I might be too low on him in the update and just like some.

21:59.470 --> 22:02.855
[SPEAKER_01]: higher upside guys maybe above him and maybe I'm underrated in the upside.

22:02.895 --> 22:07.963
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the thing I was turned off by is he does not miss a lot of bats with his foreseem.

22:07.983 --> 22:10.187
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not in the zone with it all that much.

22:11.609 --> 22:13.251
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I guess the zone rate isn't bad.

22:13.311 --> 22:18.880
[SPEAKER_01]: He has an unusual combination of a lower in zone rate than he has a strike rate.

22:20.058 --> 22:24.366
[SPEAKER_01]: which is nearly impossible, but it's because no one ever chases on the foreseamer.

22:25.688 --> 22:28.874
[SPEAKER_01]: I think some of that might be the fact that he's in zone of fair amount.

22:29.976 --> 22:41.256
[SPEAKER_01]: But something about that pitch despite fairly decent specs, like you said, it's like 70 feet of extension, it's a 4.2 VA, it's 18 inches of vert,

22:41.236 --> 22:51.589
[SPEAKER_01]: And nine inches, a horizontal break from a five foot seven release like that on its face should be a 25% with kind of foreseem.

22:51.769 --> 23:01.782
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I wonder what it is about his pitch that just with that pitch that isn't driving with because everything else is the change up is the slider is the curve ball.

23:02.883 --> 23:06.147
[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess maybe it's just it sets everything up.

23:06.481 --> 23:08.724
[SPEAKER_01]: and everyone's just waiting for it for some reason.

23:08.744 --> 23:11.749
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of a weird combination of traits.

23:12.791 --> 23:14.874
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a quick break here when we come back.

23:15.435 --> 23:19.020
[SPEAKER_01]: We have another picture to talk about, and then we got some hitters, I promise.

23:19.121 --> 23:20.503
[SPEAKER_01]: We have some hitters for you in the show.

23:20.843 --> 23:21.504
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll be right back.

23:24.509 --> 23:25.931
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, and we are back.

23:26.151 --> 23:27.333
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the baseball America.

23:27.473 --> 23:32.421
[SPEAKER_01]: Fantasy podcast, Jeff Ponds, Dylan White, we're talking through some

23:32.570 --> 23:41.298
[SPEAKER_01]: Robo Scout darlings from the early part of the season, some names that have popped up and kind of combining it with some of the top 30 update information that we have as well.

23:41.859 --> 23:53.209
[SPEAKER_01]: A name that you called out beforehand, and I actually might have underrated his stuff a little bit, is a great performer in the early part of the season, was in my pictures of the month article at the end of April.

23:53.669 --> 23:56.452
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Junior Sanchez of the Diamondback.

23:56.472 --> 24:01.817
[SPEAKER_01]: So talk to me about what you're seeing with Junior Sanchez.

24:01.797 --> 24:02.658
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not bad.

24:04.420 --> 24:10.527
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so the performance as a 20 year old in hi A is pretty good just on that alone.

24:10.607 --> 24:19.476
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like in the top three of hi A's of a high dines in southern and as southern and as we just kind of joined hi A.

24:20.918 --> 24:24.582
[SPEAKER_00]: So digging in before we had the the underlying pitch metrics.

24:24.764 --> 24:26.547
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, what is it about this guy?

24:26.567 --> 24:28.410
[SPEAKER_00]: Is this just a one off type of thing?

24:29.092 --> 24:29.953
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a bit shorter.

24:30.775 --> 24:37.527
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's 510, so can he hold up the rigors as he have the workhorse volume that he can do?

24:39.210 --> 24:43.457
[SPEAKER_00]: So I was a bit tentative until got the data and then the data's actually pretty good.

24:43.477 --> 24:49.708
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if this is not sort of a mirage, he throws 93.

24:50.448 --> 24:56.787
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's an IVB of 19, it's not the flatest, but that could just be, you know, he's not throwing it up in his own.

24:57.208 --> 24:58.773
[SPEAKER_00]: His extension is like six and a half.

24:59.375 --> 25:00.579
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not horrible at all.

25:00.639 --> 25:04.069
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a slider that is 84 and a half.

25:04.235 --> 25:09.162
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, miles an hour, which is, you know, just short of that 85 mile an hour threshold.

25:09.202 --> 25:16.874
[SPEAKER_00]: So he'll probably get there next year or the year after it has over a foot of, of, of, of break of, sweep.

25:16.894 --> 25:18.556
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, so that's going to be a pretty good pitch.

25:19.157 --> 25:20.279
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, he also has a cutter too.

25:20.299 --> 25:24.485
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's got an 89 mile an hour cutter that's kind of a bridge between the two.

25:24.525 --> 25:30.594
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like that he has, you know, three pitches that he can throw and then he has a change up, which has, um, over a foot of faith as well.

25:31.335 --> 25:31.896
[SPEAKER_00]: Um,

25:31.876 --> 25:34.079
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's got a starter's mix.

25:34.880 --> 25:36.742
[SPEAKER_00]: He's throwing it for strikes.

25:37.023 --> 25:41.008
[SPEAKER_00]: He's getting, he's getting balls on the ground.

25:41.048 --> 25:42.670
[SPEAKER_00]: He's getting whiffs with all of them.

25:43.131 --> 25:52.283
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's just a matter of can he, like as a five foot tennis shorter picture, is he going to be able to hold up again, can he add more velocity to it?

25:52.383 --> 25:57.850
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like what I'm saying for the dive back to junior Sanchez,

25:57.830 --> 26:01.674
[SPEAKER_00]: Just he's number three in high A and the stuff is, you know, supporting it.

26:01.734 --> 26:05.237
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not kind of like, ah, he's kind of getting away with something.

26:05.277 --> 26:08.240
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got the, he's got the goods behind it so far showing.

26:09.741 --> 26:15.607
[SPEAKER_01]: Another guy who's had the goods behind it is a tates out the scene of the braves.

26:16.348 --> 26:20.091
[SPEAKER_01]: I did not expect this to be nearly as good as it been.

26:20.131 --> 26:25.356
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll be honest, my spring training

26:26.753 --> 26:30.036
[SPEAKER_01]: But I know that the feedback post draft was pretty bad.

26:30.076 --> 26:37.584
[SPEAKER_01]: There were some folks like area scouts, cross checkers that weren't super into it.

26:38.605 --> 26:45.953
[SPEAKER_01]: He looks great, and there's all like kind of the prerequisite contact that you expected.

26:46.053 --> 26:51.879
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like a lead, but it's good enough contact with good enough swing decisions, little passive in the zone.

26:51.919 --> 26:54.482
[SPEAKER_01]: The EVs are pretty good.

26:54.665 --> 27:01.176
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's stabilized to 84 bad at ball event sample size.

27:01.196 --> 27:03.560
[SPEAKER_01]: Or actually, it's ball's in place as you can bigger than that.

27:04.161 --> 27:10.472
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 106.5 90th percentile and the performance is kind of back that.

27:11.314 --> 27:19.187
[SPEAKER_01]: I can take a little bit more strikeouts from somebody like South the scene if it's coming

27:20.011 --> 27:25.800
[SPEAKER_01]: angles and, you know, the expected isolated slugging all that sort of thing is, is above average.

27:25.880 --> 27:36.878
[SPEAKER_01]: So I look at self-esteem as maybe somebody who has maybe a little bit more value than we had anticipated coming into the year or maybe a lot more.

27:36.898 --> 27:46.373
[SPEAKER_01]: I had added them in a few leagues a couple of weeks back and I think this is a kind of an interesting combination of hit and power and some speed and

27:46.437 --> 27:48.742
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, versatility that's needed.

27:49.363 --> 27:51.949
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if you've had had any thoughts on taste, self-esteem.

27:53.472 --> 27:58.303
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year, the data we had and it's 66 plate appearance is last year.

27:58.343 --> 28:02.472
[SPEAKER_00]: He had a 60% contact rate, 67 in zone.

28:03.042 --> 28:05.225
[SPEAKER_00]: like it was bad, and he chased at 38%.

28:06.806 --> 28:13.054
[SPEAKER_00]: His hard hit launch angles were negative, like into the ground, his pull launch angles were negative into the ground.

28:13.194 --> 28:19.842
[SPEAKER_00]: So like the 105 and 90 that he showed in that brief sample, like it just seemed like he's just hitting in the ground.

28:19.862 --> 28:24.848
[SPEAKER_00]: You can't make contact, he's chasing, and sure he can hit it hard, but it's into the ground.

28:25.435 --> 28:27.399
[SPEAKER_00]: So I wrote him off coming into this year.

28:27.599 --> 28:44.592
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm like you've got to show me show me something and he like said he's he's got it is the contact is average or better the 90th is 106 which is which is plus for the level he's only 19 in the lower he's not chasing.

28:44.572 --> 28:54.207
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not swinging as much as his Z-minus is basically average just below average, so it's not like he's something made great swing decisions, but it's way better than last year.

28:54.888 --> 29:02.479
[SPEAKER_00]: He's barreling it up, his launch angles are good, so yeah, he has he has made a fool of me.

29:02.459 --> 29:09.610
[SPEAKER_00]: He has seven home runs 27 stolen bases, which Roe was scout projects out to be 25 home runs in 30 stolen bases.

29:09.730 --> 29:13.817
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's a 25 30 guy with a WRC plus above 100.

29:14.538 --> 29:15.219
[SPEAKER_00]: He's number one.

29:15.259 --> 29:19.546
[SPEAKER_00]: He's tied Titan Gray now, who started off like gangbusters.

29:20.367 --> 29:22.510
[SPEAKER_00]: So South of the scene, it was a better WRC plus now.

29:23.231 --> 29:25.615
[SPEAKER_00]: He's number tied for number one.

29:25.915 --> 29:26.456
[SPEAKER_00]: in low-wise.

29:26.476 --> 29:29.502
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, so the scenes of guy, I missed out on my data series.

29:29.522 --> 29:30.224
[SPEAKER_00]: He's long gone.

29:31.446 --> 29:32.869
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably a couple of weeks ago you was taken.

29:32.910 --> 29:40.064
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, he's he's he's definitely a proven proven myself this year.

29:40.205 --> 29:44.734
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm kicking myself for for not picking up or picking him up earlier.

29:45.608 --> 29:52.036
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're looking at a guy now that doesn't make a lot of contact, but hits the absolute snott out of it.

29:52.517 --> 29:55.341
[SPEAKER_01]: And that would be catching prospect for the Astros.

29:55.461 --> 29:56.883
[SPEAKER_01]: Jason, she have owned.

29:57.343 --> 30:01.028
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got last look was it 17 home already?

30:01.969 --> 30:07.016
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that would put him into the MILB lead if I'm not mistaken though.

30:07.056 --> 30:10.080
[SPEAKER_01]: I have not checked the home run leader board.

30:10.499 --> 30:12.602
[SPEAKER_01]: in a couple of weeks, so I don't always look at that.

30:12.803 --> 30:18.312
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm gonna double check right now just to make sure I'm not speaking out of turn here, Dylan.

30:19.414 --> 30:20.876
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, he does lead the minor league.

30:20.896 --> 30:24.923
[SPEAKER_01]: 17, manual, Pania, Diamondbacks and AA is 15.

30:25.083 --> 30:26.786
[SPEAKER_01]: Kevin Alcantara has 14.

30:27.106 --> 30:27.587
[SPEAKER_01]: Good to see.

30:28.048 --> 30:29.671
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, Kevin Hitten, finally.

30:30.873 --> 30:33.537
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Jason Chievone, I mean, it is,

30:34.934 --> 30:38.677
[SPEAKER_01]: a chance of sticking in behind the plate, like he's not a bad catcher.

30:38.758 --> 30:39.879
[SPEAKER_01]: The arm is pretty good.

30:41.660 --> 30:42.741
[SPEAKER_01]: Blocking isn't bad.

30:43.122 --> 30:49.447
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of fringy receiving, but that's becoming less important with the challenge system and the auto zone and all that sort of thing.

30:50.628 --> 30:54.972
[SPEAKER_01]: But as I mentioned, the EVs, though, are like 80 grade.

30:54.992 --> 30:57.675
[SPEAKER_01]: He hits the absolute wrap out of the ball, Dylan.

30:58.376 --> 31:03.220
[SPEAKER_01]: He popped up on your robo scout this week, talked to me about what the robot thinks about she of them.

31:04.398 --> 31:06.461
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's the EVs in the barrel rate.

31:07.262 --> 31:27.368
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's an astros prospector in through where the EVs are huge, barrels are huge, and the contact is below average, which maybe that's something they're trying to exploit, like the vice-mathuus, and the Zach Calls, and Jake Melton was that, and she would call all these guys or that.

31:27.719 --> 31:28.741
[SPEAKER_00]: And so he's just another one.

31:28.761 --> 31:34.369
[SPEAKER_00]: So 11, 90th percentile, mile per hour last year was 108.

31:35.832 --> 31:38.055
[SPEAKER_00]: So he hits the snow out of the ball.

31:38.115 --> 31:41.500
[SPEAKER_00]: The contact is 60% and in zone is 70%.

31:41.600 --> 31:43.423
[SPEAKER_00]: So that is, that's a 40.

31:43.964 --> 31:47.510
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, he's got a 181 WRC plus I wrote about it in the article today.

31:47.550 --> 31:49.433
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a 181 WRC plus, so it doesn't matter.

31:49.733 --> 31:51.215
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a 31% strikeout rate.

31:51.235 --> 31:53.659
[SPEAKER_00]: He's still 80% better than average.

31:54.010 --> 31:55.472
[SPEAKER_00]: in terms of offense.

31:55.512 --> 31:58.836
[SPEAKER_00]: The power and the pop just supersedes the swing and miss.

31:59.877 --> 32:01.799
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, he looks like a 30 home run bat.

32:01.899 --> 32:02.500
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a bit older.

32:02.540 --> 32:05.123
[SPEAKER_00]: He's 23 for high A.

32:05.143 --> 32:06.285
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what I like the power.

32:06.325 --> 32:08.968
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not like 45 home runs.

32:08.988 --> 32:09.789
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not projected out.

32:09.809 --> 32:11.111
[SPEAKER_00]: It's only 30 home runs.

32:11.251 --> 32:13.133
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, he's got the power.

32:13.233 --> 32:16.457
[SPEAKER_00]: Once he moves up, it's probably because catchers, you know, are slow burn.

32:16.437 --> 32:23.030
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, move up to Corx Christie and then, you know, maybe he'll be knocking on the majors in 2020, 728.

32:23.310 --> 32:34.592
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, we saw with the honor Diaz who had good numbers in the minors and, you know, he wasn't really the most highly regarded prospect.

32:34.652 --> 32:36.375
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, he's made it work in the major.

32:36.395 --> 32:38.479
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, maybe he's given one he's going to be something like that too.

32:41.716 --> 32:44.019
[SPEAKER_01]: It is an interesting, interesting name.

32:44.479 --> 32:56.653
[SPEAKER_01]: One that came up to me in internal conversations and then you see it pop, I think I talked, I had an asterisks call and then literally like that night, he hit two homeruns.

32:58.275 --> 33:00.457
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, you need to watch Jason Chiavona.

33:00.517 --> 33:05.783
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, then I watched him and was like, holy cow, then I got the EV data and it was like,

33:06.843 --> 33:07.283
[SPEAKER_01]: crazy.

33:07.303 --> 33:11.727
[SPEAKER_01]: It was like the Vince McMahon name, or eventually he's like a squawking seagull.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go to the last one here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is a name you called out kind of a weird path.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Nico Perez of the Dodgers having a great year was a really slow burning.

33:24.499 --> 33:32.706
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a 2022 high school pick out of I think it's B kind of academy in Puerto Rico.

33:32.846 --> 33:36.850
[SPEAKER_01]: If I'm not mistaken, I love that name,

33:36.830 --> 33:41.476
[SPEAKER_01]: So 2022 doesn't play in 23 at all.

33:41.536 --> 33:44.620
[SPEAKER_01]: He's assigned to the complex, doesn't play a game, nothing to zilch.

33:45.340 --> 33:49.325
[SPEAKER_01]: Then the next year he is assigned the complex and is kind of progressively moved his way up.

33:49.786 --> 33:51.027
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's been a slow burn.

33:51.087 --> 33:54.532
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still really young though, and the performance is good.

33:54.592 --> 33:55.953
[SPEAKER_01]: So talk to me a little bit about that.

33:56.013 --> 34:00.559
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that you enlisted a little help from Mr. Josh Norris to kind of fill in the blanks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so he's he like we talked about Devin Fitzgerald kind of get being read across the board like that's what Nico Perez was this year is 80% contact 87% in zone doesn't chase his barrel rates above average is 90th is is.

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[SPEAKER_00]: fringe average.

34:18.140 --> 34:19.863
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, so I liked all that.

34:19.923 --> 34:22.267
[SPEAKER_00]: The hit plus was like one 18.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So all the stack asked I like and then the performance is there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's 21 years old in hi A is a 150 WRC plus six home runs, um, 15 stolen bases.

34:32.544 --> 34:34.067
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like the power speed.

34:34.107 --> 34:36.891
[SPEAKER_00]: That's like a 2020 guy, the underlines there.

34:37.312 --> 34:43.422
[SPEAKER_00]: And then so the next thing I look for is like what's the defense like and he's a middle

34:43.773 --> 34:44.700
[SPEAKER_00]: Sounds like it's good.

34:44.721 --> 34:49.277
[SPEAKER_00]: The reports I got talking to Josh is like above average.

34:49.814 --> 34:56.262
[SPEAKER_00]: Can play short, but you know, love average second basement has the arm for third, maybe outfield as well.

34:56.342 --> 35:03.972
[SPEAKER_00]: So like is a real gamer who can play everywhere, no real hole from what I'm seeing like, so he's just like a lumbering guy can't can't run.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's got plus speed, the hit tool looks good.

35:07.597 --> 35:14.185
[SPEAKER_00]: So like it's another Dodger win, where a guy because the depth of systems probably going to be like the.

35:14.165 --> 35:18.391
[SPEAKER_00]: you know the back end of the 30 but that doesn't mean he's not a good prospect.

35:18.411 --> 35:34.114
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is a guy that could be traded like this could be like an Alex Freeland, Miguel Vargas type of thing where maybe there's no room in the Dodgers but he looks like he could be a you know a regular or second division regular at least power speed that works for fantasy and he has the defense to

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[SPEAKER_00]: to get some runaway.

35:36.400 --> 35:38.042
[SPEAKER_00]: So Nico Perez bit under the radar.

35:38.102 --> 35:46.432
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure he's not a guy that's being touted a lot in other industry outlets, but you know, I'm Robo Scout and Hi-A, he's in the top 20.

35:46.492 --> 35:51.138
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's ahead of guys like, yes, I'm Mercedes, I say a Drake, your free rotary guys.

35:52.099 --> 35:55.643
[SPEAKER_00]: Even Ronnie Cruz actually has slowed down a bit in Hi-A.

35:57.065 --> 35:59.848
[SPEAKER_00]: So got Nico Perez of the Dodgers middle in field.

36:03.305 --> 36:10.159
[SPEAKER_01]: Good stuff, and I would say we kind of went through, we talked about Devon Vitcher, I was a big name, or we're nose him.

36:10.628 --> 36:16.396
[SPEAKER_01]: But out of them that, I think some interesting off the radar-ish names, not all of them sell the scene, obviously.

36:16.916 --> 36:24.626
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of these guys are rostered in most leaks, I think, at this point, because the way fab and dynasty with the ex-works faster than it ever has.

36:25.688 --> 36:32.176
[SPEAKER_01]: But interesting names, diving a little bit, maybe a couple of guys in Nico Perez and Xavier Cruz who were probably widely available.

36:33.538 --> 36:35.521
[SPEAKER_01]: But interesting stuff, kind of a mixed bag, Dylan.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I want to thank you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I want to thank you, Robot.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I want to thank the listeners out there for tuning in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This has been the baseball America fancy podcast.