Hello everyone and welcome to another episode of Selling Greenville your favorite real estate podcast here in Greenville South Carolina I'm your host as always Stan McCune Realtor right here in Greenville South Carolina you can find all of my contact information in the show notes if you need to reach out to me for any of your real estate needs and just a reminder as always please like rate review subscribe to the show and that's the way that you support it make sure you don't miss future episodes so please do that when you get the opportunity today I am going to be sharing my screen as we look at the monthly indicators what used to be called the market stats for the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors and there's a lot of interesting data in the data that we have going back to last month this is April's data or through the month of April and I'm just gonna stop or I'm gonna start rather I feel like I'm I feel like I should be stopping today was leg day at the gym I am tired but like it's like it just sucks everything out of me nonetheless I shall prevail and go through these monthly indicators with you so right at the top new listings data was up 16% this is the largest year on year increase that we have seen and it is once again last month when we looked at the March monthly indicators that was a new record for new listings for one month April beat it April we had for the first time ever over 3,000 new listings in one month that is insane that is absolutely insane for comparison post covid it was not uncommon for us to not even break 2,000 new listings in one month so a lot of people are deciding that they want to move I'm sure you know there's a lot of new construction in this data as well builders that traditionally don't use the multiple listing service that are finding that they need to list their inventory in the multiple listing service to move it and so this is what's happening 3,031 new listings for the month of April a 16% increase from the 2612 that we had in April of 25 pending sales were up 9.9% year over year as well so another very strong pending sales number in another new record okay this is the second straight month similar to the listings data that we have had pending sales set an all time record for most in one month so 1,927 we've never broken 2,000 in pending sales and what's interesting is you know usually the month of may we see a drop off we you know that's when we start to see pending sales drop off but we're so close we're so close to hitting that record of 2,000 I would really really like to see us do that I don't know if it's gonna happen though I think we might have to wait for another year to see pending sales eclipse the 2000 marker but after a slow start to the year where January and February were both down year over year in pending sales for the first time in a long time now we've had two really really strong months and I just think you know we talked about back in January February how the weather was a big influence on what was happening we had multiple snowstorms we had a few pockets of power outages and what not nothing like you know what we went through with Hurricane Helene but now we're starting to see I think we're playing catch up in the data it's become a very strong spring season and I've seen that personally so March was up 11.5% year over year in pending sales April up 9.9% nearly 10% and so that was a it went from 1,753 pending sales in April 25 to 1,927 in April of this year close sales this is one that has you know been an interesting thing to track right cause we had three straight months of negative year over year close sales data and I told you guys I believe last month that I expected that to flip for the month of April because of these strong pending sales numbers and that's exactly what happened we finally had our first positive year over year in closed sales and it was a pretty big one 6.4% increase year over year so it was 1,640 closed sales it's not a record of any sort the all time record came actually last year what year what month was that January February March April May of last year is the record for most clothes sales in one month so we'll see what may of this year ends up being but it went up from 1,542 closed sales in April of 25 to 1,640 in April this year and because of the pending sales data being very strong I would expect the may data to come in very strong as well now that being said may of last year being such a high bar to clear will probably go back into the negatives again we'll probably see you know when this month closes and in early in the month of June when I get these market sets we'll probably find that may of 2026 ends up having fewer closed sales than may of 2025 simply because may of 2025 like I just said was a record a record month but we'll see it it's hard to say it's hard to track we had a very very strong May June and July of last year and so perhaps that trend will continue from a close sale standpoint now days on market very interesting story here we peaked in February with 71 days on market which is a little bit you know on the high side for this area but every month we've been going down since then so March was 63 days on market and now April went down to 57 days on market and our 12 month average is 55 so we're pretty close to that but how did that 57 days on market compare year over year it was an increase over the 49 days on market of April 2025 so we're still trending and if you're looking at the at the dot plot you can see that we are trending quite a bit higher than the past several years in terms of how long it's taking for homes to go under contract and quite and not tremendously higher but a little bit higher than even pre covid the years leading up to covid so it's taking about two months on average to get a home under contract in in this market however that number peaking in February caught my attention because if you look at most recent years so the vertical lines are the January's so in I'm not gonna I'm not gonna count these weird 2021 2022 covid years but 2023 the month that peaked was the month of March in 2024 the month that peaked was February in 2025 the month that peaked was February but you'll notice that when it starts to come back down it's not usually a like usually from February to March is not a huge decrease and sometimes we have a bigger decrease from March to April in terms of days on market but we had a pretty big that decline from 71 days on market in February to 63 in March was pretty big and from 63 to 57 from March to April is pretty big as well so that to me tells me you know that that the market was starting to like really slow down a bit at the beginning of the year but again what the data is telling us is that for some reason the market just needed to play a little bit of catch up whether that was the snowstorms whether that was just people's needing their needing to kind of get back in the sense of things whether that's related to the economy who knows it's hard you sometimes I can feel pretty confident that I can reverse engineer what's happening in the data this is and in some of these I'm not sure yet I'm still tracking the data and still kind of forming my opinion median sales price was absolutely flat okay so the median is what we typically look at to determine kind of what is the standard sales price in the greater Greenville market well that number is flat at 3 15 $315,000 that's exactly what it was April 2025 and so if you're a buyer that's great that's great news that you know not seeing tremendous price is skyrocketing now I always have to warn you guys that what this data doesn't show you is that the median sales price is mostly going up for existing home sales it's new construction that is that is seeing prices either flatline or go down I'm gonna show you guys this again if you're if you're watching on YouTube you'll be able to see this I'm gonna pull this out so I'm using I've got info Sparks pulled up which is another data source that the Great Agreement Association of Realtors provides for us and info Sparks actually has the median sales price a little bit higher 3:00 20 and again you know the way the numbers are pulled between these two data sources is you know it they they're the data is not pulled exactly the same way okay so just be aware of that but you can see here that previously owned existing home sales are at 320,000 in info Sparks new construction at 308,000 how did that compare to April of last year it was previously owned was 308,000 new construction was 321,000 so it's literally flip flopped right existing home sales a year ago cost 308,000 on median and new construction cost 3:21 on median now new construction is 3:08 and existing home sales is 3:20 all right so this is what I'm telling you guys when I tell you guys that that new construction is what's bringing the price down that's literally exactly what's happening and so let me see actually real quick here if I go back okay and actually info sparks when I look at the entire MLS it actually matches exactly what the what the market stats have it has $315,000 if you want to be technical 314 9 50 but $315,000 as the median for the market as a whole so again if it wasn't for new construction plumbing in the way that it has the past year we would actually see market appreciation so if you're a home seller don't freak out don't freak out unless you're in an area that has a lot of new construction then you might want to freak out you need to you need to absolutely take that into consideration now the average sales price typically goes up and that is exactly what's happening and that's because we just got a lot of more expensive real estate in the upstate now than we ever have and that just bolsters the average to be a higher number and so I don't put a ton of weight into this but the you know the trends are what's important right we've had a consistent upward trend and so year over year the April average sales price was up 3.8% it went from 387 in change to 401 in change for the month of April 2026 versus 25% of list price received went up ever so slightly it went up point one % now this is pretty normal for this time of year that that buyers get more aggressive during the springtime and start offering closer to what a home is listed for 98.7% is what the percent of list price received was so you know if a home is for on the market for $100,000 which you don't see very often anymore a seller can reasonably expect to get 98.7% or 98,700 for that hundred thousand dollar house this does not include seller concessions so there might be seller concessions as well but that's actually a higher number than what April of last year was so buyers are getting a little bit more aggressive and or sellers are getting better at pricing their homes Housing Affordability Index had a nice little rebound back up to 100 that's really the lowest that we want that number to be because at 100 that means that the median household can afford the median priced home based on current income levels based on current home prices based on current mortgage rates now I'm a little bit surprised April of 2025 was 100 as well so nothing changed I'm a little bit surprised this isn't over 100 because incomes have gone up we just showed that the medium home sale the medium price for a home sale is flat and mortgage rates are lower than they were a year ago so I'm a little bit surprised that that it stayed at 100 compared to last year but regardless I'm just happy that affordability is basically clearing the lowest bar that we're trying to clear which is to be at 100 or higher inventory of homes for sale we surpassed 6,000 for what the third time third or fourth time ever in history so we had 6,006 at the end of April 6,006 homes for sale a 21.6% increase year over year that's a big increase but that's not as big as what we've seen in prior months so we you know we're starting to see the past couple of months we've been in the 20% in terms of increases and prior to that we've been in the 30s so does that mean that maybe we're starting to reach that point where inventory is starting to top out a little bit are we hitting it seems like we're kind of hitting a wall around 6,000 units and again I'm not entirely sure I don't have like a great explanation for like why that is during the Great Recession we got up to around 8,000 units at one point in 2,010 so that that would be crazy right if we added another 2,000 units to what we to what we currently have that would be a lot of inventory but I'm wondering if this trend is going to continue cause typically we do see you know inventory start to go up this time of year and I would expect that to continue based on the new listings data so it'll be interesting to see if we set a record perhaps in the month of may June or July I think at some point this year I suspect we'll set a record if we got up to 60 100 units of inventory at the end of the month that would be a record for the greater Greenville market since let's see here since 2,012 now you know if you want to include the great recession data in there be my guest all the other ones that I've said were records were records going back as far back as I have the data this would be if we got to 60 100 units would be a record since 2,012 so I do need to hedge that last but not least months supply of inventory this is really important right cause we're talking about inventory being the highest that has been since 2,012 2,011 but month supply of inventory paints a very different story we're at 4 months supply of inventory that is a 14.3% increase year over year from the 3.5 months of inventory we had last April but that is very much in line with pre pandemic pre covid and all of that and I've been telling you guys that you know if we get to 4.5 months supply of inventory that's probably where we start to feel like it shifts from a seller's market to a buyer's market I'm a little bit surprised given all of the other things that this ticked up to four months of supply of inventory but I think a lot of that just has to do with just how many new listings that we had right we've had two straight months of record new listings and so it doesn't come as a huge shock that inventory that month supply of inventory went up with that it's just a matter of looking at the absorption rate you know in terms of how many homes are going under contract and making a calculation off of that what I'm curious to see is whether this continues to kind of hover around there or you know which direction it goes in I feel like the market right now is has quite a bit of buyer activity so I could actually see this number coming down but if we if we keep having 3,000 listings a month I think this number very much will go up and if it goes up we could find ourselves in a buyer's market pretty fast in my opinion so it's a lot to track and you know we've got mortgage rates doing some odd things right we had a really bad inflation print that came out this past week that then drove bond yields up which then you know impacts mortgage rates cause mortgage rates to go up they're not going in the in the right direction right now as a result of the war as a result of gas prices as a result of inflation and all of those things then influencing the bond market which then influences the mortgage market you guys keeping up with all of this this is all important what's happening in Iran affects your mortgage rate okay you've got to understand that if you don't understand that then you're not an informed voter because when November comes around you might want to be taking into consideration what's happening may maybe not maybe you don't but those are things to consider in all of this we've got a new Fed chair now as well right we've talked a lot about Jerome Powell on the show he is not no longer the Fed chair but he's remaining on the Federal Reserve as a as a member as a I believe he's still a voting member and so at some point I'll probably have to do an episode on that but long story short the person Kevin Warsh who is now the Fed chair he there under no circumstances can he lower rates in this environment it's not going to happen so if you're hearing people say if you're hearing people out there say oh mortgage rates are gonna come down because there's a new Fed chair in town tell them that they don't know what they're talking about and they need to listen to the Selling Greenville podcast because we told you what would happen I told you what would happen so that's it for today's episode thank you guys so much for watching and listening please like rate review subscribe to the show if you need a realtor in this market my contact information is in the show notes thank you guys so much and we will talk again next time!