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[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody, JJ Cooper Carlos Gloss, another baseball American draft podcast here as we are every week.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We are, we just rolled out updated 2027, 2028 college rankings, so check those out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Comp 100 for 27, top 50 for 28, fully updated with, you know, to reflect everything that we've learned, everything that's happened over the course of the season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But today,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Before we get done with the 500, we're updating the 500 with reports that's in progress, but before we do that, we're going to take a moment to talk kind of playing off of a piece that Carlos wrote earlier this week, we're going to look at some players who have a stat.

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[SPEAKER_01]: that might be concerning and then we're going to kind of examine it and decide how to start and get is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well Carlos kind of great to see you and I'll kind of start by before we even get into the the players themselves, but

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[SPEAKER_01]: Is there a stat or are there a couple of stat or metrics that you look at when you're kind of as we're deep in trust?

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[SPEAKER_01]: What's up where you're like if I see something like that that's a that's a number that's a that is a statistic that carries more weight to me than then maybe others do obviously there's more than one one that jump out to you.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'd say in general for hitters, contact rate is a big one for me.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I feel like that is the, maybe the trait of hitting prospects that feels the most innate, whereas the least, least able to, to be helped in some capacity and player development, like if at a certain level, if you can't clear,

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[SPEAKER_00]: not exactly sure what the threshold is, but a certain level for contactability as an amateur, then I start to get very concerned about you being able to then improve on that number in pro ball against bitter pitching.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say for pitchers for me, walk rate and throwing strikes is a pretty significant one.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I just feel like among our staff at least, I feel like I'm

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[SPEAKER_00]: both in Pro Ball and as Amtree says, those are two that jump out to me.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then I'll take for pictures in general, the kind of one statistic I always look at as a bit of a bell weather.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's one of the better single statistics just to see okay how dominant have you been, especially college pictures.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think strike out minus walk rate is one of my favorite.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, individual statistics one.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So those are some of the numbers that I am particularly honed in on, I should say.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, okay, well we will dive in and the first one that we will start with is really tied to the piece that you did and something that is near and near to my heart because it is tied to a study that I did last year that involved going back into every year of the Archives of Ace of all America and all, which is TCU Outfield or Sawyer Stroke Stider is hitting 272 which

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[SPEAKER_01]: 300 batting average is an arbitrary number.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's no different than 2.95, 3.05.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's how a human brain works at a 300 is it?

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[SPEAKER_01]: But if you set that dividing line at 300 for college, first-ground hitters, not many fail to click.

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[SPEAKER_01]: to clear that bar, and the track record of those who have not has been pretty frightening over the year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You're going to be kind of the, they're prosecuting attorney and the defense attorney here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So lay out the case for and against why this should be a concern for Sawyer Strokes Nighter.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I'd say, let's start with the concerns because I think that's fairly obvious.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, like you said, this was built on a study that you did a year ago when you were looking into Jayce Laviolette.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was having a down offensive season, his worst offensive season, his college career, which otherwise was pretty impressive.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He slides the 20s to the Guardians and you looked at, hey, like, what is the actual success rate of college hitters who hit under 300 in the draft years?

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[SPEAKER_00]: how have those players paned out or been as pros?

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the answer is not great.

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[SPEAKER_00]: When I was kind of refreshing this piece, looking at players like Sawyer's Stroke Snyder, and there were two others as well if you want to read the full piece at BA, Justin LeBron and Ryder Helfrick are also players that I think are going to share these concerns.

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[SPEAKER_00]: moving forward.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But there's basically four players, I think, that have been successful big leaders, three of those players were successes before the turn of the century.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The fourth is Patrick Bailey, who's been one of the worst hitters in the major leagues and mostly carries his value because he's in a elite defensive catcher.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And was just traded basically dumped by the team who had him was like, you are gold glove catcher, you're the best catcher defensive catcher in baseball, but we don't want you to aim more because you just

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[SPEAKER_00]: Right, and so I think for amateur players, I think batting average still carries a lot of value.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Even though it's probably not the best statistic to use to measure value from major league players, I do think it is incredibly useful for amateur players, because if you can't hit or you're not putting up impressive batting averages,

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[SPEAKER_00]: as an amateur, I just think that that is putting a lot more pressure on your profile.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to need to make significant adjustments with your offensive ability, or you're going to need to have massive value in your secondary tools like Bailey.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a concern.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Sawyer Strauss-Nider when he was a high school player, the reason he didn't rank higher than he did when he was on our B-A-500 coming out of high school was because he had pure hitting questions.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He had really impressive physical tools.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He had brought power.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He had big arm strength.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was a great athlete.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then I think his freshman year with TCU, he really came out of the gate.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he had 350, 426, 50, really impressed.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Had a lot of doubles, homers, triples, steels,

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[SPEAKER_00]: And this year, I think there are some things you could point to and say that you'd like and some that you're scared about.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the average is significantly lower.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It is nearly 80 points slower from a season ago.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That has come with a different approach.

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[SPEAKER_00]: His walk rate was 8% as a freshman.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's jumped 10% as points to 18%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think the approach he's shown is an improvement.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think there are still going to be real concerns about what is the overall quality of his hit tool at the next level.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Teams who are really into Sawyer Stroke Snyder, I think are the teams who really prize and covet and value physical tools and upside and athleticism because I do think Sawyer Stroke Snyder is in this elite tier of players in this class in terms of secondary tools and upside if he hits, but that's a really big if for a stroke center at this point.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think you kind of have to say.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, a couple things with that one to go back to your point on batting average when I think it's important.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'll give you an example from Pro Ball that I think is, but it's also graph related.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That I think is apt.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Is this that if you think back a couple years ago, we were getting questions all the time of like, how are you not ranking to our Johnson and the top 100?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Look at what he's doing in,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Hi.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And Tomar Johnson had very high on-base percentages and he had solid-slugging percentages.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you could say from that, it's like, well, on-base percentages way more valuable than batting average.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So why are you digging him for his batting average being low?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And this is where there's a difference between, I think, the view of what you were talking about, between the major leagues and development, which is, you know,

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you are a passive or a very patient hitter, anywhere on that line of passivity, and you are facing pictures who are wild, you can post really high OPPs.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you're posting a high OPP with a low batting average, the success rate and I've studied this, the success rate of that in ProBalt, I haven't looked at it at the college level, but in ProBalt, the success rate for those players is much lower than someone who's posting a high OPP with a high batting average.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The high batting average does matter, that is an actual indication more of your hitting ability.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Then the one that kind of was formative for me, there was a former USC Southern Cal Outfield or Michael Neal, who posted like 430 OBPs, 450 OBPs in class A.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And talked to East God about him, it's like, yeah, he just goes up there, he's like five foot, seven years goes up there looking to walk.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And that worked for him in a ball and up to double a a little bit and they got triple A, it's like pictures, who still can be wild at times, but could throw strikes enough, they didn't respect him, they just go through strikes

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, Stroh Snyder, though, to me, is a fascinating one here because the batting average in a lot of ways to meet like, Jace Lobby, let's batting average last year, made sense with what he was doing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, real contact issues in the zone last year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Sawyer Stroestider, I'm not saying he is, he's no nicked madrugal.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's not someone who like, you cannot get a pitch by him in the zone.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Or anything like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But he's not someone who is excessively striking out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's not someone who's just, okay, well, he hits the ball 500 feet.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's not Jack Kaglioma's from much of his career in college.

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[SPEAKER_01]: you would say like you would think that he would hit for a higher average than this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But, and he is not.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, what's interesting too is he is a left-handed hitter.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He runs pretty well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He gets out of the box well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like you said, he doesn't have the egregious underlying contact questions that maybe Jason did.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't have the extreme chase tendencies that Jason Lavio let did.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think those are like, if you want to take the bullish side of Sawyer's Stroke Snyder, those are the traits that you'd point to and say,

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's just gotten unlucky on some of his balls and play.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But you look at the overall contact rate.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not horrible.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not great.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's 74, very on 74, 75% overall contact rate.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The end zone rate is 84, 85% the chase rate is under 30% which again, I'm not going to say that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So your straws kniter is some elite pitch recognition expert.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But those numbers are not in the

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like for context, Jack Hackelion had a chase rate of 40% in college.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like I feel like when players get their contact rate and in college I do think that the overall contact rate is a little concerning when it's under 80%, but there are players who are legitimate draft prospects.

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[SPEAKER_00]: who the big swing and mess question players is like the upper 60s is when it's like massive red flags.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I do think Strow Center is his concerning you want to make more contact than he is, but the point you made too he's not striking out a ton.

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[SPEAKER_00]: His career strikeout rate is right around 18%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that is a perfectly blind rate to be around to have confidence that he's not going to be one of these huge 30% plus strikeout hitters in Pro Ball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What does point out also that lobby let's contact rate last year 71.2 and in zone contact was 79.4.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Those are worse than Strow Sniders, but they're also Strow Sniders are not like that much better than them either.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's, again, this is one.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so let's have like,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Carlos, I'm the right on the scale from flashing red sirens and, you know, worry too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not worried at all.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What is your level of concern about this stat, this characteristic for Soyuz Drowsman?

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'm not quite a flashing red flags.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm somewhere in between the middle or top end of the risk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I am more concerned than I would like to be because I really am a fan of Sawyer's Stroke Snyder, the the batting average of this year is concerning to me.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think the, where I take some hard is I do think that his, his context skills and his chase range aren't of the extreme worrying and he is a career 314 hitter in college.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We haven't done an extensive study on like overall collegiate batting average, but that average is quite a bit better than Jay Slavvy.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's career batting average, which gives me again, it makes me a little more.

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[SPEAKER_00]: optimistic that he can make some changes to improve it moving forward.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I would say if it's like a one to three scale of risk that you're throwing out, I'd be like at a two or two and a half.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What about you, three being high risk, three being high risk, yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's where I would probably be two, two and a half.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, yeah, some player is going to be the exception to this under 300 rule, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I know that that's going to happen, but at the same time, it really was eye opening going through this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I expected it to be like, oh, there's a higher failure rate among these guys, but when you looked at it, and the flip side by the way, we didn't lay it out in that first study as closely,

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[SPEAKER_01]: The flip side is also true.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you wanted to say, if we wanted to be the flip side of this argument would be like a gerina vikula argument, which is can a guy who's

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[SPEAKER_01]: Tools are modest overall, but is hitting for 20.

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[SPEAKER_01]: How indicative of that is that?

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[SPEAKER_01]: For a guy who's again, you have to be in this range of you are a top talent, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are, you could 100% go through the NCAA batting leaders over the years and find a guy who hit 430 at a small school and never was heard from.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm saying, if you're among draft prospects,

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[SPEAKER_01]: and you hit well above, like the 358 over the course of the entirety of this study, 358.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think from 2021, 2001, or I think it is 10-hour, something like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 258 was kind of like the average, that was your median balance of a first-ground pick, college-off theater for 358, college-hitter, 358.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right, okay.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But if you are

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[SPEAKER_01]: So under 300 puts you well below that, but if you're a well over 400, you'd also put you well above that, and the success rate for those players was dramatically higher than, and again, so I would say, yeah, 2.5.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, okay, cool.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's our first stat that we're looking at.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to dive into the best picture in the class, right after this quick break.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So Carlos, we're back, and the next stop is the stat is

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[SPEAKER_01]: You see SB's Jackson Flora's 25.1 K to BB percentage, which is simple enough, take your K percentage, take your BB percentage, your strike up percentage.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's so odd hearing you say BB percentage.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you strike out right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Just walk right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, strike out right minus walk right, and then that's what the number is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Tell us okay for for the for those who don't stare at these numbers as much as we do start with 25.1 is that great is that terrible is that somewhere in between

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I don't think it's terrible, first of all.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a really strong number for college pitcher.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I will say that number falls quite a bit short of the best mark of some of the elite college pitchers that have gone in the first 10 picks in recent drafts.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And it also falls quite a bit short if you're just looking at the college pitching leaders, this season, so for instance, if we're looking at qualified starters this year, guys at the top of the list,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Camden Clark, DAX, Whitney at Oregon State, Mason Edwards, at USC, they all have strikeout minus walk rates in the 34.5 to 36.5 percent range.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Jackson Flores at 25.1 percent is quite a bit off that mark.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I pulled

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[SPEAKER_00]: All of the, again, this is top 10 selected college pitchers going back to 2021.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There are 14 pitchers before including Jackson Flora who we very much expect to go in this range.

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[SPEAKER_00]: 14 title pitchers who meet those thresholds.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Jackson Flora strike out minus walk rate.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Where would you expect that to rank?

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[SPEAKER_00]: I know you've looked at the numbers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I was going into it concerned that it was going to be the worst rate is how I will tell you this, but it is the 11th best of this 14 player sample.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So his 25.1% rate clears Gabriel Hughes in 2022.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was on 10th overall pick, 25% Chase Dolelander, 23.9th overall pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was at 23.5%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: and then Kate Horton is the worst of this sample of players, 22, 7th of raw pick, 21.1% strikeout minus walk rate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Big Astros on that one, though, because Kate Horton basically kind of worked his way, like he was the, okay, the season kind of just going along with all of the sudden he found a rocket ship right at the, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: But even that number is even.

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[SPEAKER_00]: less than I was expecting it to be because Kate Horton had a phenomenal close to the year involved in himself up into top ten status and I was expecting I was I'm honestly surprised the strikeout rate was as low as it was he's actually the only picture of the sample that didn't have a strikeout rate north of 30%.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say this, like group, so the leader board, so if you context for what the elite numbers have looked like, Chase Burns and Paul schemes are the two that cleared a 40% rate, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I wouldn't have my interest with Chase Burns, 40.9% with Paul schemes, and then it goes into sending order, Hagan Smith at Arkansas, 30.3% Liam Doyle, last year with Tennessee, 34.3% and then we start to get like into the lower 30s,

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think two things are true for me.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Jackson Flora's stuff is better than his strikeout, minus walk rate indicates.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think part of the reason why the strikeout and walks for him have been harder to stomach is that because he is the clear cut number one pitching prospect in the game, because he is also not pitching in a great conference, I would expect him to be

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[SPEAKER_00]: than he is.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like he is a pitch ability sort of guy who's not going to miss a lot of bats.

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[SPEAKER_00]: His walk rate is actually maybe getting towards the range where you get a little scared in this territory.

17:53.061 --> 18:00.927
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's actually to that degree, but like he's not an elite pitch ability type in the same way that Tyler Bremner or Paul schemes was at the same time.

18:01.687 --> 18:03.208
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I'd say that like

18:04.209 --> 18:13.979
[SPEAKER_00]: going into the study and looking at recent track record, I really expected to be more concerned, but the names here actually give me a little bit more confidence, but what about you, where are you at?

18:14.240 --> 18:16.102
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm concerned about this.

18:16.682 --> 18:24.711
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say, again, to go back to, if I want to, I can argue both sides of this, right?

18:24.931 --> 18:25.892
[SPEAKER_01]: I could be a lawyer on this.

18:27.158 --> 18:32.144
[SPEAKER_01]: He's being asked ideally to try to be pretty efficient, go-deep in games, all that, right?

18:32.745 --> 18:36.249
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you could say, okay, well, maybe that reduces his strike, I'll read a little bit.

18:36.849 --> 18:38.772
[SPEAKER_01]: But to go back to what you just pointed out,

18:40.186 --> 18:43.147
[SPEAKER_01]: He should be just carving up some of these line-ups he's facing.

18:43.287 --> 18:46.789
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Mason Edwards, to give it an example, you've cited.

18:46.869 --> 18:53.892
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Mason Edwards is facing obviously not exactly same line-ups, but they're both on the West Coast.

18:54.372 --> 18:57.513
[SPEAKER_01]: There has been some cross pollinations of the teams that they face and all.

18:58.954 --> 19:02.156
[SPEAKER_01]: Mason Edwards is carving up teams left and right.

19:02.196 --> 19:06.139
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Flora has the ERA that is exceptional.

19:06.199 --> 19:13.845
[SPEAKER_01]: But to me, if you asked me, which do what I rather see for a top of the draft college picture, or a thousand percent, that's right?

19:13.865 --> 19:14.585
[SPEAKER_01]: Thousands of percent.

19:14.725 --> 19:16.627
[SPEAKER_01]: So I am a little worried.

19:17.807 --> 19:40.643
[SPEAKER_01]: really as much as the walk rate concerns me and the walk rate is a little bit high like I would say the walk rate is basically what Liam Doyle's walk rate was last year and that was not like what that was not like Liam Doyle's best attribute by any stretch imagination and what his strike out rate is like for that like it's if he was one or the other it feels like the walk rate's a little high but he's also striking out 45% of the okay right

19:41.303 --> 20:00.834
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like both numbers are a little bit more, and I don't want to say they're not mediocre numbers, but for this caliper of college pitchers is not for this exactly for this for this group of pitchers like both the strike at rate is not as good as you would like the walk rate is not as high and I also think just comparing and contrasting Jackson floor and Tyler Bremner I think is interesting because

20:02.131 --> 20:10.557
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe this is just because Tyler Bremner was in a much more loaded group of arms surrounding him who had more obviously explosive stuff in certain categories.

20:11.157 --> 20:18.142
[SPEAKER_00]: But Tyler Bremner for his career at UC Santa Barbara, he never struck out fewer than 30.2% of batters in a single season.

20:18.542 --> 20:22.084
[SPEAKER_00]: He never walked more than 6.9% of batters in a single season.

20:22.444 --> 20:25.887
[SPEAKER_00]: His career, K-minus, was 26.4%, it was 29.7% his draft year, Jackson Flora,

20:32.573 --> 20:37.836
[SPEAKER_00]: He only just now this year got his strikeout rate over 30%.

20:38.596 --> 20:41.417
[SPEAKER_00]: His walk rate for his career is right in line with the walk rate.

20:41.437 --> 20:42.218
[SPEAKER_00]: He's showing this year.

20:42.238 --> 20:49.281
[SPEAKER_00]: He had 12.2% 24, 5.5% 25, and then this year it's kind of threading the needle between those two numbers.

20:49.361 --> 20:51.042
[SPEAKER_00]: But it is interesting because I feel like

20:52.405 --> 21:01.529
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're comparing Tyler Brenner and Jackson Flora, Tyler Brenner feels like the more pitch ability oriented arm and Jackson Flora is the guy with tons of stuff.

21:02.169 --> 21:07.271
[SPEAKER_00]: A fastball, exactly how you draw it up, multiple breaking ball shades, this new great change up.

21:07.291 --> 21:13.854
[SPEAKER_00]: I think maybe the breaking ball is the area where you could say Flora is more exciting in terms of his future potential than Brenner.

21:14.494 --> 21:19.797
[SPEAKER_00]: But Brenner has a better track record of just striking guys out and dominating in this area.

21:20.397 --> 21:26.224
[SPEAKER_00]: to a degree that I think gave me a lot more confidence last year and it's kind of making me scratch my head this year with Jackson Flora.

21:27.145 --> 21:29.448
[SPEAKER_01]: Especially if I could go back to the point like

21:30.330 --> 21:31.610
[SPEAKER_01]: They're just aren't that many.

21:31.630 --> 21:37.732
[SPEAKER_01]: If I scan through synergy allows you to kind of look at every hitter that a pitcher is faced in the year, you're scanning names.

21:37.812 --> 21:46.654
[SPEAKER_01]: But like, the thing that stands out is there are very few names on the hearsoo Jackson floor is faced from like, oh, let's see how he did against him.

21:46.754 --> 21:52.475
[SPEAKER_01]: Because they just really haven't faced a lot of elite college hitters that's here.

21:52.856 --> 21:54.796
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't mean to have him finish, you know, good competition.

21:54.836 --> 21:55.816
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, that's not what I'm saying.

21:55.876 --> 21:58.177
[SPEAKER_01]: But it is true that it's like, okay,

21:59.236 --> 22:07.720
[SPEAKER_01]: how many top 100, top 200, top 300 prospects in this year's draft had they faced?

22:08.060 --> 22:12.443
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not many, so again, I would just expect with Flora's fastball for instance, right?

22:13.503 --> 22:14.163
[SPEAKER_01]: This is yeah.

22:15.084 --> 22:23.008
[SPEAKER_01]: There should be two to three batters per line up probably, where it's just like, if you just locate that,

22:24.428 --> 22:25.229
[SPEAKER_01]: they're just sitting down.

22:25.649 --> 22:26.730
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, yeah.

22:26.810 --> 22:37.959
[SPEAKER_00]: I think metricly analytically the power, you look at Jackson Flores fastball and it's exactly what Analysts want to see for a fastball and then you look at the actual performance against the fastball and in particular the misrate.

22:38.440 --> 22:42.143
[SPEAKER_00]: The misrate on his fastball this year is quite a bit worse than it was like, year ago.

22:42.163 --> 22:51.030
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason I'd say I'm like, not entirely scared by this is I think a lot of where Flora is maybe not getting this dominance

22:54.462 --> 22:55.922
[SPEAKER_00]: as good as it's going to be in the future.

22:56.343 --> 23:02.544
[SPEAKER_00]: I've talked with a lot of scouts to just think Jackson Florida is a little bit more raw than pictures like Tyler Brumner were in terms of their pitching ability, their command.

23:03.044 --> 23:12.407
[SPEAKER_00]: I think as he gets more reps with his pitch mix, which is completely different than it was a year ago, as he gets into better, better develop, not say better development.

23:12.547 --> 23:13.427
[SPEAKER_00]: UCSB does a really good job.

23:13.447 --> 23:14.327
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a victory.

23:14.347 --> 23:15.568
[SPEAKER_00]: That's one of the one of the best.

23:15.608 --> 23:20.549
[SPEAKER_00]: But I just think with more time, I could envision a scenario where Jackson Florida does a better job

23:24.450 --> 23:25.772
[SPEAKER_00]: the numbers are going to follow.

23:26.372 --> 23:36.683
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would say my concern for Flora is probably like a 1.5 a little more towards the less concerned range of our scale.

23:36.723 --> 23:37.083
[SPEAKER_00]: How about you?

23:38.224 --> 23:39.245
[SPEAKER_01]: I hope that around there too.

23:39.265 --> 23:40.286
[SPEAKER_01]: I would agree if you like it's

23:41.388 --> 23:47.370
[SPEAKER_01]: What I would say about this is, this is not a, oh, this is just qualifying in any way for Jackson Flora.

23:47.871 --> 24:00.355
[SPEAKER_01]: But it also is, I would say very much fits the idea that don't think that this is, okay, you're getting a guy in the top five, top six that you're getting the next chase burns or you're getting the next no one thinks you're getting in the next ball schemes.

24:00.616 --> 24:02.196
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a level that very few, right?

24:02.216 --> 24:03.597
[SPEAKER_01]: But you're not getting this,

24:04.257 --> 24:17.382
[SPEAKER_01]: guy who's going to go out in two years from now, just carve big league hitters, which chase burns like those schemes out of chase burns is doing that, chase burns is going out there and dominating big league hitters on a pretty regular basis.

24:18.523 --> 24:28.567
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is more of what you, I like how you said it, like when you think of what we thought of Bremner last year, right, where you're like Bremner may be more of that mid rotation guy down the road.

24:29.526 --> 24:29.706
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

24:29.726 --> 24:32.567
[SPEAKER_01]: This is probably more in that category and I agree.

24:32.927 --> 24:38.830
[SPEAKER_00]: I think people think that the top college arm or the top arm and any given draft is just the top of the rotation prospect.

24:38.890 --> 24:40.291
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's the case.

24:41.091 --> 24:45.533
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Jackson floor is very much a solid middle of the rotation upset arm at this stage.

24:45.653 --> 24:52.176
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, maybe he unlocks some more things the next level and improves, but yeah, I think your expectation should not be the Jackson floor is an ace.

24:52.536 --> 24:53.736
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, slowly ask you this way though.

24:53.916 --> 24:54.577
[SPEAKER_01]: One other with that.

24:55.437 --> 24:58.419
[SPEAKER_01]: Is Mason Edwards because of his ability to miss many more bets?

24:58.479 --> 24:59.679
[SPEAKER_01]: Does he have more potential?

24:59.699 --> 25:03.922
[SPEAKER_01]: Not to be an ace, but to be like a higher ceiling guy, even if he's an idol.

25:04.182 --> 25:04.822
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think so.

25:04.862 --> 25:05.923
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it'd be the opposite.

25:06.063 --> 25:07.904
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Florida's stuff is just better.

25:07.924 --> 25:09.765
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's more ability to project on him.

25:09.805 --> 25:14.007
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a level of power to his fastball that is going to allow him to access more ceiling.

25:15.488 --> 25:24.493
[SPEAKER_00]: But Mason Edwards has been really, I think Mason Edwards has basically done what you would have expected Jackson Florida to do, which is dominate a weaker schedule of pitch or of hitters all year.

25:25.348 --> 25:27.609
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we got one more of these that we're going to do.

25:27.689 --> 25:29.130
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to go to the high school ring now.

25:29.630 --> 25:34.352
[SPEAKER_01]: And so now we are looking at one of the top high school prospects in this class.

25:34.872 --> 25:38.974
[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob Blumbard, last summer, we're going to know, we'll talk about this.

25:39.355 --> 25:42.216
[SPEAKER_01]: But last summer, he had a 32% miss...

25:42.456 --> 25:45.497
[SPEAKER_00]: This is actually his entire high school synergy, miss rate.

25:45.537 --> 25:46.598
[SPEAKER_01]: High school synergy data.

25:47.018 --> 25:51.700
[SPEAKER_01]: So encompassing multiple numerous events over the years,

25:55.322 --> 25:57.723
[SPEAKER_01]: for other hitters as well.

25:57.743 --> 26:09.468
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, we already talked about, we already set the stage here that you get into the 60s of your contact rate in college and you're starting to get concerned.

26:10.128 --> 26:12.529
[SPEAKER_01]: This is obviously the concern with Jacob Lumber.

26:12.549 --> 26:17.471
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't have to explain to you that that's not the misraint that you wanted to have for that.

26:17.551 --> 26:22.793
[SPEAKER_01]: But take us through how worrisome is this and again, the pros and cons.

26:23.934 --> 26:27.595
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so this one is, this one is pretty scary for me.

26:27.975 --> 26:32.636
[SPEAKER_00]: I basically, again, like, I don't know the batting average is all to use for high school players.

26:32.736 --> 26:38.338
[SPEAKER_00]: I think almost all of the high school players that we're ranking are going to put up impressive batting average numbers.

26:38.778 --> 26:43.959
[SPEAKER_00]: The quality of contact is so divergent that it's hard to put as much stock in high school numbers period.

26:43.999 --> 26:45.920
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think given the,

26:47.200 --> 27:03.633
[SPEAKER_00]: uh given the travel ball scene the showcase scene pulling a lot of the summer data that we have available with a larger sample is useful and there have been some players who once they clear a certain threshold you start to worry a little bit and so what I did for Jacob Lombard

27:04.473 --> 27:07.776
[SPEAKER_00]: is I tried to go back and look at top 15 high school hitters.

27:07.896 --> 27:20.486
[SPEAKER_00]: So anyone selected in the first 15 picks going back to the 2021 draft and I'd say 2021 is when you start to get into a range where the sample is a little bit less on encompassing both because

27:30.185 --> 27:47.180
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at the, just the totality of misrate for all the data we have for players, top 15 high school players, Jacob Lombard's misrate is the second, I'd say he's tied with three other hitters for second worst, behind only Elijah Green.

27:47.840 --> 28:08.974
[SPEAKER_00]: in a 23 player sample, Eliza Green had a 33% misrate in all of his synergy data at the same time, Jacob Blombard has a 32% misrate, as you mentioned at the top, along with Blake Mitchell, from the 2023 class, and then Jordan Lawler, who I wasn't entirely sure if we should even include the 21s because Lawler's sample is quite a bit smaller than the nine pitches.

28:09.134 --> 28:13.237
[SPEAKER_00]: 99 pitches compared to for Jacob Blombard, 1266, Blake Mitchell, 533 Eliza Green, 633.

28:13.277 --> 28:13.597
[SPEAKER_00]: And so for me,

28:17.580 --> 28:29.466
[SPEAKER_01]: I look at these names and I get very scared that's a flashing red siren if you say like because Elijah Green has had one of the worst contact rates in the minor league period.

28:29.746 --> 28:39.371
[SPEAKER_01]: Last time I checked this season I think he's striking out almost half the time nearly 50% and it's basically derailed his prospect status is he does not make enough contact and then Blake Mitchell

28:40.292 --> 28:52.137
[SPEAKER_01]: goes back to what we were talking about at the start, when we were in the Strosinite conversation about the guys who get on base, but don't hit for average, Blake Mitchell is like the class a poster child of those.

28:52.177 --> 29:00.041
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a catcher, but he's a guy who is, I believe, like a 220 career batting average, even though he has a very robust on base percentage.

29:00.821 --> 29:04.162
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you look at some of the other names at the like more near the extreme.

29:04.202 --> 29:23.608
[SPEAKER_00]: So these are all the players of the 25% or higher, misrate, in high school, include Eliza Green, Jacob Lombard, Blake Mitchell, Jordan Lawler, Steel Hall from last year, Bryce Rainer from 2024, who JJ just wrote about some of the swing changes that maybe he needs to make, Ethan Holiday, Brady House and Benny Montgomery.

29:23.828 --> 29:25.448
[SPEAKER_00]: Benny Montgomery's just shy of that threshold.

29:25.468 --> 29:26.208
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a 24% but like those names,

29:28.729 --> 29:34.917
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't give me confidence, they actually add more hesitation for me personally.

29:35.338 --> 29:45.571
[SPEAKER_00]: And then on the flip side, if you look at some of the high school players who've been taking to have some of the better contact rates, it's Jojo Parker from last year's draft, would just a 10% misrate.

29:46.572 --> 29:54.954
[SPEAKER_00]: Jet Williams in 2022, Max Clark in 2023, Billy Carlson in 2025, Connor Griffin in 2024, which I thought was a useful talk.

29:54.974 --> 29:55.314
[SPEAKER_01]: Shocked me.

29:55.334 --> 29:55.654
[SPEAKER_00]: That shot.

29:55.674 --> 30:08.577
[SPEAKER_00]: This is useful to see and remember because Connor Griffin, he did have a lot of like pure hit questions and swing questions, but he never had this sort of pure, just miss questions that some of these other guys like holiday and Elijah Green, Jacob Lombard have.

30:08.877 --> 30:20.260
[SPEAKER_00]: A few other names to mention here on this side, Eli Willett's 14% him in Conner Griffin at the same rate, Jackson Holiday, in 2020 to 15% Harry Ford, Walker Jenkins Daniel Pierce.

30:20.280 --> 30:25.902
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are all the high school players in this sample who have a contact rate of 80% or better in the samples we're looking at.

30:25.922 --> 30:29.143
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think overall, that's like a pretty encouraging group to be in.

30:29.163 --> 30:33.864
[SPEAKER_00]: If you had to choose one bucket that you'd like to belong to, it certainly wouldn't be the big swing and miss guys.

30:35.165 --> 30:35.885
[SPEAKER_01]: So, okay.

30:37.114 --> 30:48.338
[SPEAKER_01]: this is interesting brought Griffin here because I was I was stunned to see the Griffin's this rate was 14 percent because you always hear about like you know how much you improved and how much the hit took concerns there were and all that.

30:48.378 --> 30:48.598
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

30:49.239 --> 30:49.499
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

30:50.159 --> 30:57.722
[SPEAKER_01]: How much Lombard has had from what from our reporting like it's been a better high school season started slow but it's gotten better.

30:59.345 --> 31:05.009
[SPEAKER_01]: how much is, again, on the rate of concern meter.

31:05.430 --> 31:09.433
[SPEAKER_01]: If three is the flashing siren and one is like, I'm not going to do it all.

31:10.154 --> 31:13.176
[SPEAKER_01]: It feels like you're sound like this one's maybe it's not a three, it's like a 2.8, 2.7.

31:14.724 --> 31:27.359
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so the only thing that prevents me from going to a three and I don't know if this is is foolish or not, you can tell me, but like his spring has been really good and everything about Jacob Blombard's game looks good.

31:27.579 --> 31:29.562
[SPEAKER_00]: Even when he's swinging and missing, it looks good.

31:29.982 --> 31:32.303
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if that is foolish to say.

31:32.383 --> 31:34.583
[SPEAKER_00]: The swing aesthetics are really impressive.

31:34.623 --> 31:36.504
[SPEAKER_00]: The bass beat is impressive, mechanically.

31:36.564 --> 31:42.285
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like he has a lot of moving parts and the timing seems off and like the pitch recognition is terrible.

31:43.665 --> 31:49.447
[SPEAKER_00]: You could maybe come back to me and say, hey, because of all of that and he still has this mystery, you should be even more concerned.

31:49.587 --> 31:52.247
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that would be a legitimate argument to make.

31:52.727 --> 31:55.648
[SPEAKER_00]: Additionally, Jacob Blombard is like this elite defensive shortstop who

32:01.130 --> 32:21.486
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I won't fault whoever takes him inside the top 10 for taking a shot on it because I just think if everything clicks and you can help him make the adjustments like continue to make adjustments moving forward if he needs to make them Maybe he's just the athlete that's able to do that at the same time if you wanted to look at just the track record of hitters in this range and say nope But let someone else take a chance.

32:22.146 --> 32:22.747
[SPEAKER_00]: I get that too.

32:22.767 --> 32:26.410
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm like I'm like 2.8 with him and I typically am happy to take

32:27.070 --> 32:35.837
[SPEAKER_00]: risks on high school, short stops with tools, but I think like you just it's rare to see a mystery this high in high school that that concerns me.

32:37.658 --> 32:45.764
[SPEAKER_01]: It ties back to what we were talking about the start of this is all kind of coming to circle, right, which is if you have a miswrite use set at the start, I said, what stats are the ones that you look at?

32:45.784 --> 32:52.649
[SPEAKER_01]: And you said contact rate is the one that you look at first because to go back to what you're saying is that's

32:54.980 --> 33:07.389
[SPEAKER_01]: There are multiple things that are encompassed in that, right, in contact rate, which is pitch recognition to some extent, because if you swing it above that bounces at 355 feet, then you are gonna have a problem.

33:08.170 --> 33:19.498
[SPEAKER_01]: It's barrel control, because if you recognize the pitch perfectly, no exactly where it's gonna go, but you just don't have the ability to put the bat where you want it to go, that could be a problem.

33:20.039 --> 33:21.540
[SPEAKER_01]: And then timing, because

33:23.359 --> 33:26.982
[SPEAKER_01]: we always think of it up down, you know, you know, all that.

33:27.363 --> 33:28.464
[SPEAKER_01]: But I always love to talk about.

33:28.524 --> 33:30.105
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a three-dimensional space.

33:30.585 --> 33:35.190
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you are early or late, that can be just as much of a problem.

33:35.310 --> 33:39.814
[SPEAKER_01]: And timing, I think a lot of times, is often the toughest thing to probably fix in a lot of ways.

33:41.980 --> 33:56.049
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a, yeah, that is a stat that, again, like you said, like the thing that stands out to me is, is of the guys that we are comparing them with, these are up the middle players in general, but I would say like of the short stops we have there, I think that Lumbar is a better short stop.

33:56.930 --> 34:02.874
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're comparing him to a center field or a catcher, I would have less concern with the great glove short stop doing this.

34:03.354 --> 34:06.776
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I would say that it is something where

34:09.906 --> 34:15.111
[SPEAKER_01]: it is definitely what I would say is it's very much a concern.

34:15.492 --> 34:17.674
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how you can't call it a concern.

34:18.314 --> 34:28.184
[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing I would ask what that is is like you said like when you watch his swing, the part about the scene's weird is this is not someone who has a swing where you say

34:29.357 --> 34:32.138
[SPEAKER_01]: Recognizably this is why this is right.

34:33.019 --> 34:53.627
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I watch a lot of Jacob Lombard swings and I I don't it maybe it's just like he's not getting his I really don't understand what the issue is sometimes he can get a little bit steep in the swing maybe maybe it's as simple as that like trying to get him a little bit more levels so the barrel stays in the zone the hitting zone a little bit longer, but yeah, I'm not entirely sure

34:54.716 --> 35:02.901
[SPEAKER_00]: what the issue with this is almost a little eatin holiday ish like eatin all days swing always look pretty good in high school as well he just came with miss concerns

35:03.958 --> 35:05.039
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm not sure.

35:05.219 --> 35:16.368
[SPEAKER_01]: I will point out just for completion sake, Eric Booth Jr. who's the other, I wanted to add like, who's in that same range as Lumbard, you know, Ray the Emerson, I know if I'm looking up, it's gonna have a better misrape.

35:16.689 --> 35:20.131
[SPEAKER_01]: But Eric Booth Jr. 679 pitches 20% misrape.

35:20.472 --> 35:31.581
[SPEAKER_01]: So to give a comparison of the guy who's right there in the kind of that same range of Lumbard is another guy who, if you go through every event, he's been to, it's right in what we would term the middle,

35:32.982 --> 35:45.414
[SPEAKER_00]: kind of curious now to pull up Grady Emerson's just to see because Grady Emerson maybe for some teams has a 70-hit tool I think pretty clearly the best pure hitter in this class of this stage so just to give you some context for for 17% and it's the 158 pitches.

35:48.995 --> 35:55.518
[SPEAKER_01]: So he would be in the, yeah, better in the better than normal, but not at the absolute league version of it.

35:55.578 --> 35:58.700
[SPEAKER_01]: Jojo Parker being the 10% or that was not when I expected.

35:58.740 --> 36:01.802
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a name you would have picked and Clark, I was 100% believe.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He like Willis or Holiday or Clark, yep.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Those are the last day.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that is today's baseball America draft podcast.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We thank you as always for the download.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Please leave a comment.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We try to respond to them.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I know there's one out there from last week said I'm going to get to.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I wanted to ask Jacob Ruggler to help out on the that question because of the college question, but also obviously check out all the stuff over at baseballmer.com or Carlos.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm JJ.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So long everybody.