[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody, JJ Cooper, Jacob, runner, Jeff Ponds.

[SPEAKER_00]: Baseball, America, college, podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we are fired up and ready to go today because we have a field of 64.

[SPEAKER_00]: Just open a little bit under the curtain here.

[SPEAKER_00]: We want to start by saying we know that the selection committee has a tough job.

[SPEAKER_00]: How do we know this?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because every night, for the last week, basically, throughout the tournament,

[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob Jeff and I have spent an hour to an hour and a half on the phone at past my bedtime a lot of nights because I'm old.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hocking over who's in who's out and just kind of an acknowledging from that like when we were doing that last night.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's tough.

[SPEAKER_00]: You could make arguments for different teams.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we say that to start because it's down the road and here we're going to talk a little about who we think we're surprised to see and who we're surprised to see out.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get to that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But great to see you guys and let's start it off obviously at the top, which is not only do we have a field of 64, but Jacob.

[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the national seeds.

[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the teams who basically become the favorites and really have been the favorites.

[SPEAKER_00]: What jumped out UCLA as our number one, no surprise towards a tech as our number two, no surprise, but looking at the bracket, looking at the field, especially the top of it, did anything really kind of come to mind to you, surprise you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Within the top eight picture no, and I think that that was one of the more pleasant, you know, I don't know if you want to call it a surprise, but it was one of the more pleasant occurrences of this year's selection Monday.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that the door was open this year for the top eight national seeds to maybe look a little bit different than we had anticipated for weeks.

[SPEAKER_02]: going into this day.

[SPEAKER_02]: You have teams like Alabama that had an earlier exit than they probably desired out of the SEC tournament.

[SPEAKER_02]: Does that team get a top eight national seed?

[SPEAKER_02]: You've got teams like Florida State, which was I inside the top eight RPI's 19 ACC wins just under 20 overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: And as we learn and we'll talk about, strength of schedule is a very important factor in this year's field.

[SPEAKER_02]: And Florida State certainly checked those boxes with the number 27 overall strength of

[SPEAKER_02]: Excuse me, number five over all strength of schedule number 27 non-constructive schedule.

[SPEAKER_02]: We could have seen some movement inside the top eight, but we actually had the top eight nailed in the right order.

[SPEAKER_02]: Unfortunately not that will be an area that we you know strive for perfection for next year in our field of 64, but we did go eight for eight on the top eight national seeds.

[SPEAKER_02]: We got the first three in the order that they were in.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that the committee just did the right and and best job that they could to put together that group.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Jeff, the one that we kind of, I'd say that we agonized over a little bit is, is I guess I was a little surprised to see Auburn end up at four, slight surprise.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to make it sound like dramatic, but Auburn North Killon Texas, that's where we had a little different if I remember correctly, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob, you've got that far.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we had Texas over Auburn and I, you know, I think ultimately it was a conversation I think that and we kind of talked about it reasonably from both sides.

[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't like it was a slam dunk in our mind.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not totally shocked.

[SPEAKER_01]: By the committee going with with Auburn where they did, it's one of, it's arguably the best performing pitching staff, you know, player for player, you can maybe make some arguments obviously for for more talent and staffs, but I think, you know, you look at.

[SPEAKER_01]: what Auburn put together throughout the year, just give me a second here, I was just pulling up the metrics.

[SPEAKER_01]: They were 5th and X-FIP, 6th and 5th.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're first and strike out to walk ratio.

[SPEAKER_01]: They had the fourth best ERA in the country.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the teams ahead of them if I'm not mistaken were Hawaii Oregon State in UCLA, which are not facing the type of SEC competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then you factor in that it was number one

[SPEAKER_01]: in the entire country.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's a good case for Auburn there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly going to be questions around the bats and how much they'll perform as they get deeper into this, but the depth of that pitching staff and just how many guys they had within their top six or seven who really performed.

[SPEAKER_01]: I actually think their top six pictures and innings pitched everybody's between like a 2-ERA and a 330-ERA.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't ERA isn't the B-all and all, but at the end of the

[SPEAKER_00]: So, I will, as we have a little, we have a fourth member of the, of the content here.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have your comment of is it, she's very passionate about the tigers.

[SPEAKER_00]: So this is why I say I'm a little surprised though, okay?

[SPEAKER_00]: So just kind of leg the stage for later on conversations here.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say here that RPI trumped other considerations.

[SPEAKER_00]: Auburn hosted Texas and lost the series.

[SPEAKER_00]: Texas won the series against Auburn head to head, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Texas finished ahead of them in the SEC.

[SPEAKER_00]: But in this case, RPI ended up being the differentiator.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say the largest information, not the only one, but the largest differentiator's Auburn was ahead, yes, Jacob.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I would say also that an even better example of where our PI was a factor in the hosting picture was not inside the top eight, but it was with the decision to go with Mississippi State as a host.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you talk about an interesting decision.

[SPEAKER_02]: We moved Mississippi State the night before championship Sunday of conference tournament week.

[SPEAKER_02]: We moved Mississippi State out of our top 16 in favor of the Arkansas team that pushed its way to the SEC not into the SEC championship.

[SPEAKER_02]: Arkansas is going to Lawrence now as presumably as one of the top two seeds in the country, but that was an odd decision when you look at the rest of the factors surrounding that exact comparison.

[SPEAKER_02]: Arkansas, 18 and 13 in Quad 1, Mississippi State, 9 and 14.

[SPEAKER_02]: Arkansas has five combined

[SPEAKER_02]: quad three and four losses.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's going to hurt you in the RPI category.

[SPEAKER_02]: But then you go and you look at the head to head and Arkansas want a series against Mississippi state.

[SPEAKER_02]: They end up picking Arkansas.

[SPEAKER_02]: It Mississippi state to be a host presumably because of the RPI.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's really no other obvious area.

[SPEAKER_02]: eight spots.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's really no other obvious area that would have lent itself to that decision.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, yes, to your point, RPI was important at the top, but that to me was the most glaring we are going to lean on RPI to make our decisions.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that Auburn in Texas were pretty close.

[SPEAKER_02]: And if you guys recall, when we were having our final field of 64 meeting, I actually thought pretty strongly that Auburn belonged above Texas in the hosting picture.

[SPEAKER_02]: Reason being,

[SPEAKER_02]: The number one strength of schedule always carries weight.

[SPEAKER_02]: It mattered for Florida a couple of years ago when it was barely about 500 and 13 and 17 in the SEC wasn't particularly great in the SEC tournament that year, but it was able to get into the field because that number one strength of schedule again is a real resume point.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that Auburn being the number three RPI team being only a game and a half back in the conference standings behind Texas and having that number one overall strength of schedule made its case really compelling.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think the better example of RPI kind of being the metric that Trump saw others is in that Mississippi State conversation and of course,

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, as we get deeper into that one, we'll get there for sending the stage.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing I would say at the top is, is there a regional that stands out to you.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll go back to you, Jacob.

[SPEAKER_00]: That stands out.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, okay, you got a national seat.

[SPEAKER_00]: Congratulations.

[SPEAKER_00]: I got bad news for you.

[SPEAKER_00]: You got a really brutally tough regional, though.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, tough one for North Carolina.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you talk about a tough draw.

[SPEAKER_02]: North Carolina, I think, is in a position that looks a lot more like it was on the opposite side of the bracket than being a clear, top eight national seed.

[SPEAKER_02]: You get East Carolina, which would lend the AAC,

[SPEAKER_02]: in ERA prevails as the conference winner.

[SPEAKER_02]: You have VCU which led the A10 in ERA and was exceptionally good and you've got Tennessee, which if you guys recall a couple podcast episodes ago, we actually talked about how Tennessee would be one of the last teams we'd want to face in the field because of their strength potential at the plate.

[SPEAKER_02]: You've got a lot of these young hunters that are kind of rounding into form a little bit later than maybe they would have wanted and then of course you have this rotation of both and that's just

[SPEAKER_02]: overflowing with great stuff professional prospects.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's a really dangerous team.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think if you're North Carolina, you're probably shaking your head a little bit as about what that regional bracket looks like relative to some of your top eight peers.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there's Jeff to jump out to you or is it North Carolina for you as well?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I think it is North Carolina.

[SPEAKER_01]: And for all the reasons that Jacob laid out, I just think you look at the resume throughout the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're pretty much been a consistent top five team.

[SPEAKER_01]: They land as the fifth overall seed.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's really no easy out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you can look at some of the regionals just ahead of them and just behind them and say, yeah, I mean, hey, I am from the Worcester area.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love Holy Cross baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: Holy Cross versus VCE was a very different conversation, Tarleton State, great story that made the tournament for the first time as a D1 program versus East Carolina, very different kind of conversation.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you can even go down to the Tuscaloosa regional with, you know, SCU, which had a great tournament win and run Alabama State similar

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not the same as drawing East Carolina VCU and then you factor in how good Tennessee is as a two seed and that they're sort of an ascending team going into the tournament.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's a really dangerous regional and I don't know who North Carolina upset because they gave them a really really tough road.

[SPEAKER_00]: To just give you this, we ranked all 64 teams and we did not rank them on resume.

[SPEAKER_00]: We ranked them on how we think that they set up for the tournament for regional play, which is a little different.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're really focused on the top seven or eight, really seven pitchers on the staff.

[SPEAKER_00]: We don't really care who your midweek, you know, bullpen is, because that's not going to, if that comes into play, you're really already done.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had 10 to see 10 in that because

[SPEAKER_00]: we had East Carolina 18th in that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we had Tennessee as better than numerous

[SPEAKER_00]: hosts.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had East Carolina being one of the top would be basically one of the top two seeds as far as their ability to compete.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we have VCU 46 like you said Jeff, very, very, very different than if you're talking about the teams at the back of the field here.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is a very brutal.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the flip side of that is we don't have to spend a whole lot of time on this, but

[SPEAKER_00]: What is the, I would say UCLA, I think you both said to me before we got on this is the one that really, which day I was in number one, see it's okay that you would say that UCLA has the probably the easiest regional.

[SPEAKER_00]: I also pointed out the Athens regional, it partly because liberties are really good three seed I think we all think.

[SPEAKER_00]: However,

[SPEAKER_00]: Boston College is probably one of the weaker two seeds, and most importantly, if you're George of the host, Liberty has been Blair, but then Blair will almost assuredly start the game against Boston College.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you're gonna face a long island team that doesn't really have almost anyone who could touch 90 miles an hour on the pitching staff.

[SPEAKER_00]: A Georgia lineup that averages close to 10 runs a game against a pitching staff that averages 85 miles an hour is not probably going to be the best matchup you would think we'll see got played games, but those were a couple that stand out, but now that we kind of looked at the national seats the top of it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Looking bigger picture.

[SPEAKER_00]: What are some of the things that jumped out just overall about brackets, about seeding?

[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob, like, what stood out to you as how this was all put together?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: I was really perplexed throughout the entirety of the selection show, some of the conversations that I had in the lead up to the announcement, some of the conversations that I had after the announcement about what exactly mattered when it came to selecting the teams in the field and again, I'm going to reserve part of that conversation here for a little bit, but also for the teams that were clearly in the field and there were many of those more of

[SPEAKER_02]: I do still wonder what exactly led to certain seeding decisions, because it was not linear throughout this entire bracket this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'll give you a couple examples.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jacksonville State, top 25 and RPI, they have 46 wins on the season.

[SPEAKER_02]: They're the conference USA regular season and tournament champion.

[SPEAKER_02]: They're one of the most equipped pitching teams among mid majors in the country with real pro stuff.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jeff is written about them a number of times.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about some legitimate senior target pro prospects in this year's draft.

[SPEAKER_02]: that team ended up a three seed, which is rare in and of itself, teams in the conference USA and I'm talking specifically about Dallas Baptist over the last couple of years have been two seeds.

[SPEAKER_02]: Teams that go double champion regular season and tournament in conference USA tend to be two seeds.

[SPEAKER_02]: Top 25 teams in RPI tend to be two seeds.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it was a little headscratching to be that team did not qualify above the two seed threshold when teams like Virginia Tech and Boston College were two seeds.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't understand that and especially because again we're going to get into this more and a bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: It seemed like non-conference strength of schedule was a really big sticking point this year for who got entry

[SPEAKER_02]: They're more coming soon.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, we're good.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll get there more coming soon had a non-constrained the schedule of 2018 comparatively Boston College to 16 Boston College was a two seed compared to Jacksonville State 186 compared to Liberty same conference also a 41 team at a conference USA non-constrained the schedule 37.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's a three seed.

[SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't linear.

[SPEAKER_02]: this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: We saw bad RPIs, land in the two seed line.

[SPEAKER_02]: We saw bad strength of schedule intent, land above the two seed line.

[SPEAKER_02]: And we saw the exact in-first fall below that, particularly in the case of binangers.

[SPEAKER_00]: You have a theory on that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, this is a theory.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is not, we do a lot.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're doing a lot of reporting today, but this is not a substantiated.

[SPEAKER_00]: We know this is true, but it's a very logical theory because of changes

[SPEAKER_02]: This is the first year that there is direct instruction on how two seeds are supposed to be placed in the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: Two seeds this year were ranked.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that ranking was not made public.

[SPEAKER_02]: However, the way that it worked was teams 32, 31, 30 and 29 had to be.

[SPEAKER_02]: in regionals 1, 2, 3 and 4 and you can go so on in the opposite direction.

[SPEAKER_02]: So 2, C, number 17, 18, 19 was with 16, 17, 18, 19.

[SPEAKER_02]: I do think that there may have been some massaging of the back of the two seed line, so that teams that may have been three seeds ended up above the two seed line, so that they got stuck in rituals like Virginia Tech going to UCLA.

[SPEAKER_02]: Boston College, having Oklahoma.

[SPEAKER_02]: Those are the ones that I wonder.

[SPEAKER_02]: Did the committee make somebody a two-seat to basically put them in the tough territory when you have teams like Arizona State, which I thought had a much better two-seat argument than UCF, which had to head to head, but didn't have as good of an RPI, did UCF get a little bit of a tougher draw because it was a two-seat.

[SPEAKER_02]: And Arizona State gets to go to Lincoln, which is a very winnable regional for that team.

[SPEAKER_02]: did that happen?

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that I would totally dismiss it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I will go back to what you said though, JJ.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is very much a theory.

[SPEAKER_02]: I am not reporting this.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is not information I have.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just a thought and I think it's it's plausible.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I want to lay out for people one of the reasons that I kind of think it's a very plausible theory is we ran into this, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Which is when you get to spots in this, when you have this many SEC and ACC teams hosting,

[SPEAKER_00]: You also get two points in this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We got two points when we were doing our projected fields every night, where I'd be like, how do I make this team one of the four in this pod?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because if there are two seed, there's nowhere for them to go here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Or I can't put these two teams, or these three teams as two seeds, because where do they go?

[SPEAKER_00]: And so then that was another reason that it could lead to kind of moving around.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think what you're saying here is pretty plausible.

[SPEAKER_00]: It has a lot of logic to it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Whether it's true or not,

[SPEAKER_00]: It does seem strange that there seem like the two, the back of the two line and the top of the three seed line are really muddy this year for whatever reason and again, like you laid it out for some of these teams it may be better to be a three seed where you're getting to go than it is to be a two seed where you were going to be going as a two.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of an interesting little wrinkle about this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about the teams that made it in the last teams in.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll do that right after this quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back.

[SPEAKER_00]: So now let's go into some of the teams who did make it, who were at

[SPEAKER_00]: the back of the at-larges, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We've got the automatic bids, a lot of four seeds, some threes, some two, some ones.

[SPEAKER_00]: But looking at the teams that made it, I think we should obviously talk about.

[SPEAKER_00]: So NC State Elliott Avent has announced that this is his final season, and now he gets a swansong of another tournament appearance.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is, I mean, like Elliott Avent has been the driving force, a great coach and now he does get, like, let's, we're going to start with this, which is like, it is cool to see Elliott get one more ride in the turn, you know, and with this wolf packing, we've obviously seen them go to Omaha, we've seen them have the very unfortunate situation one year where they were on their run and then COVID hit and then they, you know, maybe derailed them from a, you know, from a championship run, we don't, we'll never know.

[SPEAKER_00]: But let's talk about it from that perspective first, which is how cool is it to see Elliot Avent get one more ride?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, I think it's appropriate.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's the kind of coach.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that everybody gets that kind of respect and that's not to suggest that NC State is in the tournament exclusively because it's long time head coaches retiring.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I do think that that had to have weighed at least in the back of people's minds when they made that decision.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it was the right one.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, you mentioned the 2020 season where they pushed out of the field because of the COVID-19 protocols.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's right.

[SPEAKER_02]: 2021, sorry, and they were really well positioned to go to the National Championship and compete for a title.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's nice to see that be avenged.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that that's a really cool opportunity to afford them.

[SPEAKER_02]: I will also say this.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it's the really important part.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that NC State is an indefensible inclusion in the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you eliminate all of the emotional aspects from this, and I think that that's important to mention

[SPEAKER_02]: there will be a lot of people who look at that and say the only reason that that team is in the field right now is because it's coaches retiring and it pushed somebody who had a better resume out of the picture.

[SPEAKER_02]: I do think it pushed at least one team out of the picture that had a better resume, but I do think it was it was a defensible case.

[SPEAKER_02]: They played almost exclusively the top competition in the ACC.

[SPEAKER_02]: They got to 14 wins, usually historically you want to see teams get to 15 wins in the ACC to feel really good about them, but obviously 14 you're really knocking on the door, 32 and 22 overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: Is it is it weaker in the peripheral metrics?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, 5 and 11 quad one, not very good.

[SPEAKER_02]: Number 242 non-constraint of schedule, really bad.

[SPEAKER_02]: Those are the kinds of things that I think will get people hung up.

[SPEAKER_02]: However, when you bake in the fact that you have this long time Hall of Fame head coach retiring, when you have the metrics that are generally speaking, especially DSR and yellow that are very much in range for a team that should be in the field, I think this was defensible that the knit I will pick is I don't know how you can leave this team out of

[SPEAKER_02]: in this field that were fringy or cases than NC State.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not here me NC State fans.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm fine with the inclusion.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's a good thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: I like that Elliot Avent gets one more chance if nothing else.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is the last four team in.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think not putting them in there is a little bit disgraceful.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, okay, and now, now let's dive in, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because that fits into, but it fits into something we saw last year as well, which is Kentucky had the shakyest of shaky resumes to make it in last year, and they weren't last for it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you ask me to summarize and feel free to disagree, the summary is that I feel like you wrote a column about this.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not just that high goes to the power for conference now when it comes to selections.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's high and a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_00]: There is an assumption I would say that if you are on the line that is being compared, a power an ACC and SEC especially, but a power for conference team versus a mid major.

[SPEAKER_00]: that the mid-major is inferior as a general assumption and the mid-major team, if looking for that large bid, has to so overwhelmingly basically clear the table of any consideration.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you leave any glimmer of hope,

[SPEAKER_00]: for the power conference team, they're probably gonna get the bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where I go back to this when you say, the fact that NC State is not the last one or the last second from last in is where I kind of say this.

[SPEAKER_00]: If they had said, NC State is 64th, sorry, and we're gonna get to Mercer, sorry Mercer.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, but it is hard for me to say, you are saying when you say that they are, they are not one of the final four.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you compare that to Mercer.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're a thing that those resumes are not similar.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't know how you can make that argument.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how you can look at Mercer who, by the way, we're gonna lay it out there, Resume 2, 44 and 14, 15 and 6th O'Con.

[SPEAKER_00]: Best team is so kind of regular season.

[SPEAKER_00]: We could say, well, they got knocked out in their conference tournament, and they did by the team that won it, Citadel.

[SPEAKER_00]: which would be a really good argument in comparison to NC State again and I'm just comparing those two because they said that NC State's not even a final four.

[SPEAKER_00]: NC State lost their first game at the ACC tournament to the 16 seed Duke.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not a compelling argument for NC State over Mercer.

[SPEAKER_00]: You could say, okay, let's go to RPI.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, Mercer had a higher RPI.

[SPEAKER_00]: 28, better RAPS should say, better RAPS.

[SPEAKER_00]: DSR, OK, NC State did have them 44 ELO, 41, and C State was again a little bit better.

[SPEAKER_00]: You asked the question, there are other people asked the question.

[SPEAKER_00]: They asked on the ESPN announcement of the field and the problem for Mercer that they laid out on the resume was their strength of schedule.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where this really does become a problem again, because yes, you could say Mercer's strength of schedule was poor.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't know what else Mercer was going to really do about that in a lot of ways.

[SPEAKER_00]: They played Georgia Tech and beat them.

[SPEAKER_00]: They played FSU.

[SPEAKER_00]: They went on the road mid-season to Oregon State for a three-game series.

[SPEAKER_00]: But obviously you could say they could have scheduled better, I guess, other midweeks, because obviously you're confident.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the real problem with that is, is that NC State had a worse non-conference trade schedule.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're overall strength of schedule is better, but that's because they, the part that you don't control.

[SPEAKER_00]: Mercer and NC State cannot control who they play in conference.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then obviously the other thing for Mercer is you play the games you played.

[SPEAKER_00]: They were 12 and two in weekend series.

[SPEAKER_00]: They were 44 and 14 overall.

[SPEAKER_00]: And,

[SPEAKER_00]: I promise I'm going to come to YouTube, Jeff, but I feel like Jacob, I need to come back to you on this first.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the one where the way you laid it out I thought laid it out very well, which is, if this doesn't get you in as an at large and you kind of laid out the numbers on this as well, the number of at large bids that are going to non-power for conferences, keeps getting smaller and smaller and smaller.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is kind of the example of a team where it's like, I'm sorry, you just got to win your conference tournament because that's basically your way in.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think the only way to put it, really, is that the whole strength, the schedule thing is just a bunch of noise.

[SPEAKER_02]: It just is, there's no reason to sit here and call it anything other than what it is, and it is a noise, to leave out Mercer with 44 wins, and one of the best offenses in the country, and my new, that's after

[SPEAKER_02]: Michael Alford, who I want to be clear, I really do have a lot of respect for Michael Alford, he's got an impossibly tough job that you can't make people happy to listen.

[SPEAKER_02]: We do a top 25 every Monday that comes out and we can't even please 25 fan bases.

[SPEAKER_02]: So to try and do that with this many teams is, again, an impossibly tough job and this is not necessarily a Michael Alford problem.

[SPEAKER_02]: However,

[SPEAKER_02]: Mr. Alford did come to baseball America before the season started and we had a really great conversation about the metrics matter and strength of schedule matters and RPI matters, but so does sitting down at the TV or in the ballpark and really understanding the team that you're talking about and assessing its value for the team that it is.

[SPEAKER_02]: Is it a team that's got a formidable offense and a pitching staff?

[SPEAKER_02]: He used the example of Hawaii last year which kind of fell off at the end, but he was in the room with the committee last year campaigning for Hawaii to be a tournament team because it was just one of the best 64 teams in the country even if the strength of schedule and the RPI didn't agree with that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't see how Mercer, which hit more home runs than all but two teams in the country, which you guys know is better than even I can speak to it.

[SPEAKER_02]: But when you were doing the team rankings, Mercer, if correctly, if I'm wrong, would have stacked up very well in this field based off of its underlying offensive and pitching metrics.

[SPEAKER_02]: It is a good team.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so this whole thing about, you know, you've got to watch the teams and the good teams should be in the field, none of that held true on selection Monday and then to your point, JJ, the whole thing about strength is schedule.

[SPEAKER_02]: It seems like that only matters selectively.

[SPEAKER_02]: For Troy, that mattered this year because they have the number three non-constrained disceter, so they really tried hard.

[SPEAKER_02]: And they had the number eight overall strength, the schedule, they go 17 and 13 in the Sunbelt and 32 and 29, three games above 500 overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: Seven and 12 in quad one.

[SPEAKER_02]: Last year, when Xavier was sitting in a similar position and there was a conversation about Xavier being the field versus Kentucky versus Troy at the time,

[SPEAKER_02]: the answer ended up being no because even those Xavier scheduled super hard number five non-constrained to schedule they went five and thirteen in quad one games and the committee what did they say that day well you scheduled you tried but you didn't win so last year you had to schedule tough and win the games this year if you scheduled tough and showed up then you got to be in the field but if you didn't schedule tough or get the metric

[SPEAKER_02]: boosting games on your schedule, but you want a lot, then that wasn't good enough.

[SPEAKER_02]: And if you lost good games in a tough schedule as a high major team and didn't schedule tough outside of your league, that was also okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the goal posts move a lot.

[SPEAKER_02]: I just confused myself in saying all of this.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that it's tough for teams to follow the logic even more than it is for me.

[SPEAKER_00]: Gloopy and Jeff, like the other thing I would say, though, is that when summarize can be summarized as is that we just see year after year when you say that the goalposts move, I would say that the goalposts are different for

[SPEAKER_00]: a power four conference team.

[SPEAKER_00]: And when you are them, then it is that you've done this, you've done this, we were excited with, we've heard about, you know, mid of the conference or back of the conference teams who didn't lose, didn't ever get swept in their reconsider, didn't win weekend series, but they didn't get swept.

[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas, and then you had the flip side of it is, is that Mercer, who had the extremely impressive ability to just win game after game after game,

[SPEAKER_00]: But sweeping weekends is not that important if you're playing in your conference the same way, but go ahead.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think, you know, you kind of factor in Mercer's quad force schedule, which is a lot of their schedule because it's not an incredibly strong conference.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have less quad four losses than NC state and believe Kentucky did and some other teams Texas state that got into the field and they played like 20 plus quad four games.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they have

[SPEAKER_00]: to answer your, there were 27 in one in comparison and NC State was 13 and 3.

[SPEAKER_00]: So they played 28 and they lost two fewer quad four games than NC State did.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you throw Kentucky, just to answer that, they were 9 and 3.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yes, they did, they were better.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, 27 and 1, you know, obviously in that area, 44 wins overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just I think it's it's it's tough because your your goal post sort of analogy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think is is apt because for a lot of these mid majors and extra point.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's from a

[SPEAKER_01]: they're kicking from the 25 or the 30, where Mercer, it's pretty much 60 yard kicks.

[SPEAKER_01]: They got a schedule correctly.

[SPEAKER_01]: They got to win a bunch of those games.

[SPEAKER_01]: If they dropped a lot of Q4 games, I'm sure they would count that against them.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they have to have these almost flawless sort of seasons where it's like you're going 500 or better in quad one games and you schedule enough quad one games.

[SPEAKER_01]: to rank highly in terms of your non-con schedule and then you have to roll through your conference because it's a bad conference and we almost don't care about those games and then the only way that you can get in if you don't do all those things is that you have to win your conference tournament.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then I think just as an aside, we even saw outside the ACC and the SEC, Kansas is the number 15C.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're a double champion.

[SPEAKER_01]: So even some of these conferences that are power-forers,

[SPEAKER_01]: that aren't the ACC or the SEC, they have to pay a little bit of the price, too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe it's not the 30 for the big 12.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's the 35 or something, or there's a little more wind or something.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know?

[SPEAKER_01]: And also go down stream and it's kind of interesting.

[SPEAKER_01]: How much they'll excuse with a good team like Kentucky, for example.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I'll just say the Jeff's point.

[SPEAKER_02]: Straight to schedule was clearly in my opinion, the thing that held back the big 12 when it came to the seeding pictures.

[SPEAKER_02]: So there's an example right there of intent to schedule being seriously important.

[SPEAKER_02]: You have West Virginia, noncon SOS 223.

[SPEAKER_02]: Right in the Mercer Conversation, you've got Kansas at 151 and they put those two teams at the back of the hosting picture.

[SPEAKER_02]: Kansas 15 West Virginia 16.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that anybody would tell you that Kansas is the 15th best team in the country right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't think anybody would tell you that West Virginia is the 16th best team in the country right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: We have thought all along that both of those teams would be much higher.

[SPEAKER_02]: I believe we had

[SPEAKER_02]: West Virginia at 14 and Kansas at 12 in our final projection, and then the last two teams last year, the big 12 didn't even get a host.

[SPEAKER_02]: So sure, sure, not a non-cont SOS super important, but that falls so incredibly flat when you try and reapply that to several other situations.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not even like Boston College,

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_02]: The best teams in the ACC, they had the 260th non-con SOS.

[SPEAKER_02]: They cancel, by the way, we could talk about that.

[SPEAKER_02]: They didn't mention that yet.

[SPEAKER_02]: They canceled a midweeking, late in the season.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's reporting now at baseballamerica.com slash college in the winners and losers piece from selection Monday.

[SPEAKER_02]: They have now done reporting.

[SPEAKER_02]: We have heard from very reputable sources that if you canceled an RPI game, bad RPI game late in the season, even though there was a memo sent that that was going to be something that would be punished, it was not.

[SPEAKER_02]: They had no way to uniformly register, who needed to be punished and who canceled for legitimate reasons and who didn't, so they didn't do it at all.

[SPEAKER_02]: Boston College is one of those things.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, stop, stop, stop, stop for a second.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hold on, let me stop because I just want to lay this out clearly to people who aren't following it as intently as closely as we have.

[SPEAKER_00]: They single letter out that promised that said, we are watching, and if you do this, if you cancel games for RPI purposes, you will pay the penalty for doing so.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're not, they're lying.

[SPEAKER_00]: They are lying about this.

[SPEAKER_00]: They are waving their finger, but they will not come on on selection Monday and say, you know what?

[SPEAKER_00]: Kentucky, I know you sent out that tweet that said you canceled it because your student athletes had had a very busy schedule, but we don't think that that's still okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so off you go, they were never gonna do that because as you said,

[SPEAKER_00]: What is the biosline between, well, there was some rain in the forecast?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, we had exams.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, a thousand things.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're bluffing.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, continue.

[SPEAKER_02]: Lex, so because of that, we can remove that even from the equation.

[SPEAKER_02]: Boston College overall strength of schedule was 52.

[SPEAKER_02]: And there are two seed.

[SPEAKER_02]: They didn't attempt to play tough teams at any opportunity where that was in their control.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then when it wasn't in their control, they didn't get stuck with the top teams in their league and when they played them, by the way, when they had the face those great teams, what happened?

[SPEAKER_02]: They lose a series at North Carolina.

[SPEAKER_02]: At the end of the year, they played Georgia Tech.

[SPEAKER_02]: They didn't just get swept at home by Georgia Tech.

[SPEAKER_02]: run out of their own stadium by Georgia Tech.

[SPEAKER_02]: So this is not a team that beat top top competition, and it wasn't even remotely close to the bubble.

[SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't even a three seed.

[SPEAKER_02]: So again, y'all can anybody who listens to this can come at me, come at JJ, come at Jeff, and you can talk about how, you know, NC State played the tough teams and they won some games and it boosted their

[SPEAKER_02]: to not put a 2014 Mercer, 44 win Mercer team into the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: Straight this schedule, be damned.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think is a horrific decision.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so I do want to point the Jeff made earlier.

[SPEAKER_00]: I wanna cover another team that basically kind of got a mid major that kind of got screwed, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not gonna tell you that they have this good or resume as Mercer, but I will tell you right now,

[SPEAKER_00]: The American Conference, the American needs to absolutely rework their conference tournament.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because UTSA is sitting home today, partly because they got screwed, but partly also because you have a conference tournament that screwed them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob, you have the floor.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's bad the American conference needs to go back to the drawing board UTSA dominated they won the regular season first of all I'll talk about the history of that here in a second, but this conference tournament

[SPEAKER_02]: they did not lose.

[SPEAKER_02]: They beat East Carolina head to head.

[SPEAKER_02]: They go to the championship game.

[SPEAKER_02]: It does not matter that they had no losses.

[SPEAKER_02]: The double elimination portion of their bracket is over.

[SPEAKER_02]: They lost a one-nothing game to East Carolina.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now they will watch the postseason from home because that's not enough to get into the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you're the American conference for the love of heaven.

[SPEAKER_02]: You need to fix that championship format.

[SPEAKER_02]: You gotta give a team that's undefeated by the time it gets there an opportunity to survive.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's the first thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: The second is, and you kind of alluded to this JJ, the American Conference does have a history of pretty solid tournament access for two teams.

[SPEAKER_02]: One, being the automatic bid in the second, if it's not the same team, being the team that wins the regular season.

[SPEAKER_02]: Up until today, there had never been an American Conference regular season champion to miss the field.

[SPEAKER_00]: just to lay it out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Here is, as we said, UTSA won the American Conference regular season.

[SPEAKER_00]: Their tournament was Friday.

[SPEAKER_00]: They beat Memphis for nothing.

[SPEAKER_00]: Saturday they wake up.

[SPEAKER_00]: They beat East Carolina for the two.

[SPEAKER_00]: which is to state beats UAB to get the face East Carolina.

[SPEAKER_00]: East Carolina beats Wichita State.

[SPEAKER_00]: So they run it back again and say, here you go, two days in a row, UTSA versus East Carolina.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I know you haven't lost the game in this tournament.

[SPEAKER_00]: Who cares?

[SPEAKER_00]: They lose one nothing.

[SPEAKER_00]: That run.

[SPEAKER_00]: That one run there is, I'm sorry you're sitting at home.

[SPEAKER_00]: What a great season for you guys, but it's not enough.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not great.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, I don't even say like that is also, that is partly on like I know that you have to figure out a way to get like you don't want to be like you don't want to have two games sitting on the schedule for Sunday.

[SPEAKER_00]: I get that at all, but there's a whole lot of other conferences that I figured out better ways to do this.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and also it's worth mentioning that the SEC has in the past doesn't anymore, but it used to have a similar format where the championship game was a single elimination contest and there was double elimination play throughout the tournament before that, but the SEC notably transitioned from double to single elimination.

[SPEAKER_02]: before the championship series.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you could double elimination play your way to the semifinal, but if you lose the semifinal, even if you were great before, that's tough.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's fair.

[SPEAKER_02]: That gives everybody an ample opportunity in level footing.

[SPEAKER_02]: East Carolina was not the best team in this tournament field until the very last day when it won by a run and to your point.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, UTSA season comes down to a single

[SPEAKER_02]: single run.

[SPEAKER_02]: And Jeff, I'll bring Jeff into this.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jeff, you fought for them even still on the at large line in our final conversation.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it was funny.

[SPEAKER_01]: I had a, I think ultimately I thought they might get screwed and it would be, it would be NC State that would get that final spot.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was kind of the conversation that we had had.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I look at it as

[SPEAKER_01]: ECU, I think we all believe, had they lost that game to UTSA is probably in the field.

[SPEAKER_01]: Slightly higher RPI, they were tied more or less in terms of the league, you know, UTSA and subgetting the league.

[SPEAKER_01]: UTSA had a long run last year as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of felt like there was a lot going into this where

[SPEAKER_01]: ECU if they lose that game is, I think we're here today and we're not talking about them missing the tournament.

[SPEAKER_01]: But flip side, one nothing game and just how much impact that tightly contested game had, a day after they beat this team that they lost to.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's the craziest thing to keep in mind is they had already beaten this team the day before.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so you kind of factor all that in and there's not a whole lot separating these teams, but I think we both, oh, I think we all believe that East Carolina and we had projected it as such, um, would have gotten an at large bid had they lost on Sunday.

[SPEAKER_00]: So okay, one other team that I think we should at least touch on.

[SPEAKER_00]: that did not make it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Another one of the last four out is Michigan.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would just want to lay out for this is one other thing that I want to kind of jump off of this.

[SPEAKER_00]: And UTSA is a good example, as to, there is a known, what could have essentially be said kind of a geographical bias to RPI and all.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it don't mean that it's in like that the RPI that these numbers are deliberately biased, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a Michigan and I would even say if you're a UT San Antonio, which, by the way, you could say, well, they're in Texas.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's all these great teams around, not around San Antonio.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like midweeks and all, there's a limit to where you are going to travel, generally, midweek.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so there are some teams that have an array of quality teams to play this week, next week, during Florida, if you're in the south, and if you're really to be honest, like, you

[SPEAKER_00]: But Michigan, I would say though, we didn't ever really have them in Jacob, like did they have a case where you'd be like, or is it kind of get lost a little bit because of Mercer?

[SPEAKER_02]: It gets lost because of Mercer.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that Mercer was, and the committee said this is much so it's true.

[SPEAKER_02]: Mercer was definitely the first team out of the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: If there was one that was going to miss, Michigan had been close for some time.

[SPEAKER_02]: And you can actually go back to some of our mid-season field of 64 work that we did.

[SPEAKER_02]: Michigan has always kind of been hanging around the backline.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that part of its problem was who it played in the non-conference.

[SPEAKER_02]: It didn't really give itself an opportunity.

[SPEAKER_02]: to separate.

[SPEAKER_02]: What do I mean when I say that?

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, 53 and 54 and RPI is very, is very much swing territory.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's not a lock to get into the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: NC State, we've already gone over that.

[SPEAKER_02]: The reasons that NC State at 51 is in the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: some to do with the metrics that are behind the scenes, some to do with the strength of scouts that are played in the conference, some to do with Elliott Avent, that's what leads that to happening.

[SPEAKER_02]: But beyond NC State, there are no other teams in this range that made the field per due, finished ahead of Michigan, by the way, in the conference standings, did not make the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: And actually, it was not even listed at all, even though they were ahead in the standings.

[SPEAKER_02]: wind series wind at Florida, which is now a top eight national seed number 48 RPI 37 total winds didn't make the field.

[SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, non-conschedule here's another one, non-conschedule allegedly matters not so fast high point at number 32.

[SPEAKER_02]: TCU kind of in the same range 46 overall RPI 17 and 13 in the big 12 just with the the big 10 not Being the strongest conference beyond its top four.

[SPEAKER_02]: It also does matter who you play within the league and I think that that was kind of what got in the way from Michigan and Purdue They didn't have to face the top of the conference consistently You know Michigan did they got swept by Ohio State to end the year.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that really put them behind the eight ball

[SPEAKER_02]: And and that that just kind of did the man really close.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, was it really that close at the end of like we didn't we didn't struggle on you guys can correct me if you disagree, but we didn't struggle with Michigan on the final night of putting this together.

[SPEAKER_00]: But okay, we're going to wrap this up by looking ahead, making some picks projecting ahead.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll do that's right.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back.

[SPEAKER_00]: So no better way to kind of jump into this than then a question that Jacob kind of asked all of you on social media.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll ask it to us.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have to answer it as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Predicted champion, sleeper who could win it all, which you have to pick a non-host, toughest regional, weakest regional, and a player you're excited to watch in the postseason.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jeff, I've gone to Jacob so often first.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to you first.

[SPEAKER_00]: Who's your predictor champion?

[SPEAKER_01]: JJ you're going to like this one.

[SPEAKER_01]: I went with your Georgia Bulldogs.

[SPEAKER_01]: Georgia Tech seems like the easy answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's just something about the Mad Scientist West Johnson kind of getting this pitching staff to kind of work correctly.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's good stuff here.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's a lack of talent.

[SPEAKER_01]: They are a little hit or miss.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a great lineup.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, they, I feel like week after week we sat there and were like, I don't know, this team's better.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're, it's going to, it's going to, it's going to catch up to them this week.

[SPEAKER_01]: Schedule isn't as good as some of these other SEC teams.

[SPEAKER_01]: And just keep passing every single test over and over and over again.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be a battle for who the best team in Georgia is, because that guess is a chance to get both meet in Omaha.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I'm going to go with Georgia here and kind of pick against UCLA and Georgia Tech, who I'm sure you guys might pick and we'll probably be the two most popular picks.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think Georgia is one of the times.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Jacob, who's your predictor champion?

[SPEAKER_02]: Jeff kind of stole my thunder.

[SPEAKER_02]: I was about to come and and stump for Georgia and I'm going to do it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I actually agree with I agree with everything you said.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that this is a team that's kind of rolling right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've had a conversation with a coach that recently played Georgia and he said pretty really quickly that if you had to pick who wins it right now, it has to be that team that said that they're exceptionally well coached.

[SPEAKER_02]: The at bats are just extremely disciplined.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's very hard to beat them with velocity and when you're in a tournament where the reality is,

[SPEAKER_02]: and we have this up at baseballamerica.com to improve it.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's not a lot of overwhelming velocity once you get past a certain range.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not a big group in this field.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's kind of going to be what's challenging Georgia.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think they're going to match the fast balls that they face.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that they're going to be super prone to chasing.

[SPEAKER_02]: And as Jeff said, this is the best pitching staff that we've seen at Georgia under West Johnson.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that the momentum is in their favor and they're going to go really far.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna go Georgia Tech.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you guys gonna, I'm an IM Georgia alum, but I'm going Georgia Tech, and I'll say this, as good as Georgia's online up is, Georgia Tech's is better, and I also think that Georgia Tech's, I think that Georgia is extremely Georgia and Georgia Tech, are extremely well-suited to regional, super regional, absolutely mash in your home ball parks.

[SPEAKER_00]: Get to Omaha.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you get to Omaha,

[SPEAKER_00]: and a little less Homer dependent than Georgia.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that when you get there,

[SPEAKER_00]: So some of those home runs are going to turn into flyouts and that's going to be a little bit more damaging for Georgia than Georgia take obviously UCLA none of us are saying UCLA can't win this either, but the thing that just I can't get out of my mind UCLA has been the cardiac kids lately, who now get to the ninth inning and figure out a way to narrowly pull out wins Georgia tech.

[SPEAKER_00]: Just basically goes out in the first three innings and says, this game is done moving along.

[SPEAKER_00]: Are we going to run real you today?

[SPEAKER_00]: Or are you going to make it to the ninth inning?

[SPEAKER_00]: Which will be a W for you if you can make it to the ninth?

[SPEAKER_00]: 10.6, 10.7 runs per game.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, they just did that like in the ACC tournament.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have her 13.

[SPEAKER_00]: They

[SPEAKER_00]: Just they're doing that, not like, oh, they pounded the midweeks.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're putting that those kind of numbers up in ACC play against quality teams.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that this is a really, really loaded.

[SPEAKER_00]: You hit on it, Jacob.

[SPEAKER_00]: There are only a certain number of teams who kind of have the velocity to compete, I think, in this tournament, long run.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the other part of this is, having just poured through Jeff and I poured through all 64 teams.

[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing that stands out is, there are a lot of teams in this field where you're like so and so leads the team in Homer's with 10.

[SPEAKER_00]: So and so has 12, but no one else on the team has more than six home runs.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you look at a Georgia Tech and a Georgia, but like you look at Georgia Tech and it's like every one on that team bash is every one on that team.

[SPEAKER_00]: That team hits like it's a 35455 hit or like that's just like run of the mill for them.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's really impressive that way.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, Jeff will kind of keep this order going.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're sleeper who could win it all.

[SPEAKER_00]: This has to be someone who's a two seed or lower.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm going to go real cheap on this and I want my two seed that I'm going to pick here to be someone who realistically could win it all, I think it's Arkansas, you know, I don't, I don't love the kind of feast or famine offense they strike out a lot, you know, the.

[SPEAKER_01]: The pitching staff has saved them a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's really deep.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's still really talented.

[SPEAKER_01]: They got a little flare for the dramatic.

[SPEAKER_01]: They got pounded by Georgie yesterday.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if I'm looking through out this field that two seeds or three seeds, I can't, we're not getting to Omaha, but winning the whole thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Arkansas's probably the two that's most likely to do that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd love to say Jacksonville State and it's dumped for my boys here, but if they wanted all that would be,

[SPEAKER_01]: one of the greatest stopsets in North America, can sports history, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, Jacob.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I gotta go there as a state.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't think that that's as much of a sleeper pick as it might seem like for a traditional three seed.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is a really good three seed.

[SPEAKER_02]: As far as the history of three seeds go, they score a whole bunch.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's an average run differential per game of 2.6.

[SPEAKER_02]: always helps when you have a player of the year contender in your line up in land and hairstyling leading off.

[SPEAKER_02]: If not, you know, the winner of player of the year by the time it gets to Omaha.

[SPEAKER_02]: Cold car loan lefty starting for them.

[SPEAKER_02]: Is his health a question?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: But when he's going, when he's right, there are a few pictures in the country who have as much potential to dominate the big thing with Arizona State for me, though, is this.

[SPEAKER_02]: I actually think that their pitching is better than what the surface levels statistics might make it seem.

[SPEAKER_02]: They throw the ball hard.

[SPEAKER_02]: They have a number of guys who have really flashy stuff.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think the greatest example of that is Colin Linder, an older, righty, a bigger, heavier set, righty hander who is mid to high 90s with an awesome cut ride slider cut ride fastball.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's a guy to me that stands out as somebody who may not have had the most even season from a success standpoint, but really brings it with that missing quality stuff and they also strike out a ton of batteries, even though they have a high team ERA, which does not look super pretty when you just look at it alone, they are missing bats at his higher rate is just about anybody in the country, and I think that if they turn the corner at the right time, they become extremely dangerous.

[SPEAKER_02]: So hard hitting line up.

[SPEAKER_02]: multiple superstars and and the pitching potential, the stuff to be able to be really good if they can execute and throw enough strikes.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to go Tennessee and I would say this like Tennessee has been a maddening team at times, it's sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like basically they have had time for this like what is going on with them?

[SPEAKER_00]: Why are they not better than this?

[SPEAKER_00]: But they have kind of turned it around a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we do know that at their best, they can compete with anyone.

[SPEAKER_00]: They beat Mississippi State this year, they beat Texas this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: If Tegan Coons is rolling, if this team kind of is clicking, I love, you know, kind of, they got two catchers, one of them catches one of them plays center field, Intriguing, ring, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ringer, ring

[SPEAKER_00]: And because of that, I think that they could end up being a sleeper.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, that would be a weird sleeper because I think that's a team that if you said before the season, it turns out you can win it, it would have been like a shocking development.

[SPEAKER_00]: But considering how they were at times in mid-season, it may be a little bit more surprising.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, Jeff, I think we've had.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, toughest regional is the Chapel Hill Regional.

[SPEAKER_00]: We all agree we covered that moving on, weakest regional.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think this is an interesting conversation because I think you could look at like Westwood and say, oh, it's UCLA and then like everybody else.

[SPEAKER_00]: But they have UCLA in it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But they have UCLA in it, exactly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So my pick is actually the Tallahassee region on OXplain.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think Florida State's pitching staff is pretty good.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to argue that.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not a bunch of stuff monsters, but they compete with their strikes, you know, fine.

[SPEAKER_01]: That lineup has just not been the same since Miles Bailey.

[SPEAKER_01]: was injured and has been out.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he's still there home.

[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about this yesterday, JJ.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's still their home run later by far.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if there is sort of like enough power there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I'm really not on Florida State in terms of making it deep run.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think they'll get out of this regional because I think Coastal Carolina, we all probably agree.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a little bit overrated from what they are.

[SPEAKER_01]: They haven't really performed that line-up doesn't really scare me all that much.

[SPEAKER_01]: We do have no idea if we're getting through Camp Fluke at this point.

[SPEAKER_01]: And St. John's is one of the lower fours, frankly, and as far as three goes, and some of the really strong threes, Northern Illinois is just kind of okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I look at that Tallahassee regional, and I just feel like I can find or one or two that automatically kind of trump this no matter which of the other 15 regional

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, Jacob.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm going to go with Morgan Town.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to preface this by saying I actually think that West Virginia is pretty dangerous.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think in the scope of hosts though, it does rank in the bottom quarter.

[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll say somewhere between like 12th and 16th as far as just strength of host.

[SPEAKER_02]: Beyond them though, I don't know that I'm really that fearful of anybody in that region.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that Wake Forest is a good team in terms of what the raw characteristics look like.

[SPEAKER_02]: It is the hardest throwing team in the country and JJ, you and I had an offline conversation yesterday about how

[SPEAKER_02]: My theory is that teams that throw harder just tend to fare better in the NCAA tournament because you again you are going to face so many teams It just haven't seen it, but in this regional that's not really the case They don't have that advantage as much West Virginia has a lot of guys Gavin Kelly in particular

[SPEAKER_02]: who are really well geared to square up velocity and have done it for a long time now.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that they'll do perfectly fine against Wake Forest.

[SPEAKER_02]: Kentucky sees SEC, every single weekend.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that velocity scares them, and Binghamton wasn't a factor really to begin with.

[SPEAKER_02]: When it comes to Wake, though,

[SPEAKER_02]: not a lot of wins over top rank competition.

[SPEAKER_02]: They did not fair well against top half teams in the ACC and Kentucky hasn't won a weekend in a month and a half.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, can Kentucky scrape together some wins and, you know, pull out a couple of interesting finishes.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, maybe.

[SPEAKER_02]: But does that scare me in a regional setting?

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_02]: They haven't been consistently good enough for a long enough time for me to be really fearful of that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that that's

[SPEAKER_02]: but I do think that it's just the weakest overall collection of four teams.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so I'm going to go.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is good.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're mixing it around.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to go start Phil.

[SPEAKER_00]: Mr. B.

[SPEAKER_00]: State, Solantine, you know, I'm again, that's a host, local blank, but back end of the host.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think the rest of that

[SPEAKER_00]: group, Cincinnati, Louisiana, Lipscomb are all kind of back-end of like for a 14 seed, I would say that Cincinnati is a pretty favorable two seed to get.

[SPEAKER_00]: Louisiana is a pretty favorable three Lipscomb's we have rated as one of the lesser teams in of the four seed.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just feel like that's a I think if I'm Mississippi State, I'm looking at that and I'm saying okay bring these teams.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know

[SPEAKER_00]: They're not going to be out by going to the start field, like that's not an unusual environment for them.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say that you getting to get to bring these teams to start field, you're going to feel pretty good about your chances.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that one kind of stands out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, and our last question there is, one player that you're excited to watch this post season, I think we could each kind of rattle off seven, 10, 20, but look, pick, we'll keep it to one, Jeff, one that you want to watch.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'm going to pivot a little bit from what I had set on Twitter when Jacob had asked this question.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I'm going to I'm going to hone in on that Morgan town regional.

[SPEAKER_01]: I always like to watch Gavin Kelly, but that's not a question.

[SPEAKER_00]: Chris, we all could say Gavin Kelly, but I appreciate that you're not Chris Chris Levenas.

[SPEAKER_01]: Throughout the year, I've kind of stumped for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously, he's the best, maybe 2027 picture that's active.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's probably him and Valencus.

[SPEAKER_01]: But,

[SPEAKER_01]: I've I've loved the stuff all season long.

[SPEAKER_01]: He lights up the radar gun as much as anybody in college baseball, reliever or starter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Throughout the season, I posted the hardest thrown pitches from week to week.

[SPEAKER_01]: LeVonus was consistently in the top 10.

[SPEAKER_01]: If it wasn't every week, maybe he was out one or two.

[SPEAKER_01]: But consistently brings the power, their strikes

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just kind of interested to see a potential Gavin Kelly Chris LaFona's matchup and to see how he fares against Kentucky and SEC competition as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's always the pictures.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to kind of gravitate toward and that's the picture that a most interested in seeing though.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the Ben Blair Boston College matchup could be very interesting too.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you said that you were afraid of seven and asked for one.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm going to give you two and net out somewhere in between.

[SPEAKER_02]: My first one is obvious and that's the reason I'm doing that.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's Jackson Flora.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, the reason I bring up Flora is this.

[SPEAKER_02]: In the case of somebody like Ben Blair, there's a really good chance that we're going to see him in the opening game of the tournament.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's probably going to pitch against Boston College.

[SPEAKER_02]: We won't get a Ben Blair versus Georgia matchup.

[SPEAKER_02]: UC Santa Barbara is very uniquely positioned to pitch off because of the regional that it's in.

[SPEAKER_02]: They are the two seed in Austin.

[SPEAKER_02]: The three seed is Tarleton State, a formidable offensive club for the level that it plays at.

[SPEAKER_02]: And Holy Cross, which I'll do respect to Holy Cross, shout out Peter Flaherty, doesn't really scare me.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think

[SPEAKER_02]: Fired to guess right now on Monday, a couple of hours after the field was announced that Andrew checkets will have either Calvin Proski or Nathanous Settis go against Tarleton State and reserve his nation leading in ERA top guy off the board this summer draft pick.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jackson, Florida, for that matchup against Texas, I don't know that there's a single top prospect versus team matchup that would get me more excited than that.

[SPEAKER_02]: The other one that I'll give you a little bit less obvious, Ryan Lujo for Georgia has really impressed me over the last several weeks.

[SPEAKER_02]: He smashes fastballs and I think he's going to get a lot of good ones to hit in that regional and it'll be interesting to see how high his stock can source, especially now that he's playing a pretty good brand of center field, JJ.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do love, I really do, I'm impressed that we're kind of turning this into, let's not go with the obvious, like, I want to see Rock Chalowski or Landon Hariston or Vaughn Lacky or Daniel Dek.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I love that we're kind of staying with, like, no, no.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's got to be a little bit more kind of obscure.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to go similarly to what you did, Jacob.

[SPEAKER_00]: because the other team that I do think is positioned to do that is Southern Cal.

[SPEAKER_00]: Southern Cal, if they're going to make it out of college station, it'll be because of their pitching stuff, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: But I 100% think that they also have to consider, OK, you've got a first round game where you are going to be facing Texas State.

[SPEAKER_00]: Solid team, we just talked about solid team.

[SPEAKER_00]: But

[SPEAKER_00]: Is that a grant goval game?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is that like you say grant goval game one who, by the way, would be the ace of many of the teams pitching, you know, in this tournament, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you do that, and then you say, okay, let's say we win that game, and then we got Mason Edwards on the mound against Texas A&M, Texas A&M is one of the better lineups out there.

[SPEAKER_00]: but Mason Edwards is one of the best pictures in this tournament.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if he went out and just had one of those Mason Edwards games, where it's like he struck out 12, he struck out 13, he handed over the bullpen with a lead in like the seventh or eighth.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a guy who really, I think also could further also raise his stock as far as where he's viewed.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's already viewed very highly for this draft, but that's one of the me that really does stand out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Man, we could do this for another hour, I feel like, but we're gonna try to keep it to a solid hour, like we did, we also need, we've had a busy day, we've had a busy week, we've had a busy month.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we're gonna wrap this up, but before I do any closing thoughts, I'll start with you, Jake.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm excited to see how the NCAA goes about trying to fix two problems.

[SPEAKER_02]: One, scheduling.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not that easy to just walk out there and say, I want to play the best teams and then do it.

[SPEAKER_02]: The other side has to agree to that.

[SPEAKER_02]: We got to protect the teams like Mercer.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm eager to see how they're going to take some steps to do that.

[SPEAKER_02]: In the near future, the second thing is this whole gaming the RPI scheme that's been going on.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't like it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't like that some of these teams are dodging their matchups to go and fix their numbers.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think the NCA doesn't like it either.

[SPEAKER_02]: So they're going to work on that.

[SPEAKER_02]: That I know for sure that's in our reporting over at baseballamerica.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then for this year's field, I'm just excited.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is the best time of the year.

[SPEAKER_02]: There are not 11 better months than the one that we're about to go through.

[SPEAKER_02]: So keep it locked at baseballamerica.com for all of our college content because this is where it gets fun.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jeff, any thoughts from you?

[SPEAKER_01]: We're only a couple of weeks away from Cape Codley Gopening Day.

[SPEAKER_01]: As soon as the tournaments announced, I know that Cape, who's going to be at the Cape in the opening weeks because they didn't make the tournament?

[SPEAKER_01]: that I look forward to getting out there, seeing some games and kind of being like overwhelmed for a couple of weeks between very, very important and super regional type games, and then eventually college-filled series, while also simultaneously watching some of the top college talent that isn't participating.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, it all revolves around the Cape Conflict for me, you guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is the Jeff Ponce experience I would say.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will wrap it up by saying this,

[SPEAKER_00]: I think of it this way.

[SPEAKER_00]: There were three hundred and eight teams in Division I baseball that started this out.

[SPEAKER_00]: We are down to 64.

[SPEAKER_00]: The teams who've made it, congratulations.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is really at the end of the day what everyone kind of starts the season, aiming for.

[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone's aiming for Omaha, but really for most of the teams, it's really aiming to get in, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We will wake up,

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, not this time, but a little bit later than this next week and we will be down to 16.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, enjoy this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We only get the season, you know, the season flies by.

[SPEAKER_00]: It seems like I feel like yesterday I was in my car with you guys on the phone.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we were talking over our preseason, our preliminary preseason top 25.

[SPEAKER_00]: And here we are, and the whole season's flown by.

[SPEAKER_00]: enjoy it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'd just say for everyone, if you've listed this long, I know that you're crazy about this too, like we are, and I do want to wrap up by ending it the way that you mentioned this tall subject.

[SPEAKER_00]: We started by saying this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We may have made criticisms on this show.

[SPEAKER_00]: We may have said that there are things that we think were done wrong.

[SPEAKER_00]: I even said I apologize.

[SPEAKER_00]: I said that lying about it, I don't think anyone was intentionally lying when they were straight from their finger about canceling games for our PI.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they were hoping that the mere threat would actually do something.

[SPEAKER_00]: And everyone knew that we talked about it at the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: The threat is it got to mean something until you actually have some punishment behind it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think everyone doing this though, that I think the selection committee worked really hard on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't believe that they did in any way just like, oh, let's throw this together.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I do hope, I do like Jacob said, I, there are three hundred and eight teams out there.

[SPEAKER_00]: It cannot be deep, deep, deep.

[SPEAKER_00]: The environment is so stacked against 240, 250 of those teams as it stands right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just do worry, I don't wanna wake up and say that we have 40 teams playing for a title.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's what we are talking about in the visual one baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I've talked, I know you have two.

[SPEAKER_00]: in season saying, what's the point, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: I work really hard at this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've got less resources.

[SPEAKER_00]: I make a lot less money.

[SPEAKER_00]: What's the point if it stacks so hard against us?

[SPEAKER_00]: I just want to make sure that, okay, College of Charleston is not like the typical mid-bature, but there needs to be the world for the College of Charleston stories.

[SPEAKER_00]: The world for

[SPEAKER_00]: the Connecticut story from years ago for the Murray State's for teams to make runs and it's not just about a couple of conferences and that's not because I hate the SEC, it's not because I hate the ACC.

[SPEAKER_00]: I really think that the ACC deserves a little bit more credit than sometimes it gets come turn in at times.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think at the end of the day,

[SPEAKER_00]: got to make sure that mid-majors, it cannot just be that it's all about automatic bids if you're a mid-major and all of the at-larges go to a few slick conferences.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the Baseball America College podcast for today.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you Jeff, thank you Jacob.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for the download.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for the listen.

[SPEAKER_00]: Please like and subscribe.

[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously check out Baseball America.com where we have a ton more of content.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've, there's so much over there.

[SPEAKER_00]: I promise you to start right now as you download this.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you start reading over there, get ready for the regionals, I think you will be ready for the regionals around the time that regional start.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we don't ask you, you don't have to read it all.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you want to, there's so much over there, including as we said, winners and losers, complete ranking of the entirety of the fields.

[SPEAKER_00]: And when we say ranking of the field of 64, we're saying like if you want to know run differential, if you want to know the average fastball velocity of the team, if you want to know what their lineup looks like, names to know, pitching to them.

[SPEAKER_00]: For teams that your team's going to face, that you don't know anything about, we get

[SPEAKER_00]: For Jeff for Jacob.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm JJ.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a longer buddy.